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1、 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook IATA Sustainability&Economics Q3 2023 2 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 Table of Contents Table of Contents.2 Glossary.3 Table of Charts.4 I.The Business Cycle.6 II.Sustainable Investments.9 Energy Transition Highlights.9 Sustainable Aviation Fuel.10 III.Passenger and

2、Cargo Traffic.12 Passenger Traffic.12 Cargo Traffic.18 IV.Regional Outlook.22 Africa.22 Americas.24 Asia Pacific.26 Europe.28 Middle East.30 Note to readers:The Airline Financial Performance section is included in the Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook for Q2 and Q4 of each year.It is excluded from t

3、he Q1 and Q3 reports as the airline financial performance review and forecast are released alongside the June and December Global Outlook reports,respectively.3 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 Glossary ACTKs Available Cargo Tonne-Kilometers ASKs Available Seat-Kilometers ASPAC Asia Pacific ATKs Availabl

4、e Tonne-Kilometers BLF Breakeven Load Factor CLF Cargo Load Factor CTKs Cargo Tonne-Kilometers FRT Freight Tonnes GDP Gross Domestic Product LF Load Factor MoM Month-on-month MoUs Memoranda of understanding OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Passenger Traffic O-D Passenger Traffi

5、c Origin-Destination PAX Revenue Passengers PLF Passenger Load Factor RPKs Revenue Passenger-Kilometers RTKs Revenue Tonne-Kilometers SA Seasonally adjusted SAF Sustainable Aviation Fuel QoQ Quarter-on-quarter USD United States Dollar WLF Weight Load Factor YoY Year-on-year 4 Quarterly Chartbook Q3

6、2023 Table of Charts Chart 1:Global gross domestic product(constant USD),annual%change.8 Chart 2:Contribution from large economies to world GDP growth(%).8 Chart 3:Global inflation as Consumer Price Index(CPI),annual%change.8 Chart 4:Unemployment,total by country group(%of total labor force).8 Chart

7、 5:Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index .8 Chart 6:Foreign exchange rates .8 Chart 7:US Funds Flows:Sustainable versus all US funds.11 Chart 8:Relative total return of selected green energy ETFs vs S&P500 Energy Index Index,January 2022=100 11 Chart 9:Number of SAF offtake agreements(as of Sep 2

8、023).11 Chart 10:Total number of SAF offtake agreements per pathway(as of Sep 2023).11 Chart 11:Cumulative renewable fuel capacity(Mt).11 Chart 12:Total renewable fuel capacity,%share by pathway.11 Chart 13:Industry monthly RPKs in billions.14 Chart 14:Industry monthly ASKs in billions.14 Chart 15:P

9、assenger load factor(PLF),%share of ASKs(Q3).14 Chart 16:Domestic RPKs by country market,%change versus the same month in 2019.14 Chart 17:International RPKs by airline region of registration,%share of the same period in 2019 .14 Chart 18:International RPKs by cabin class,%change vs the same period

10、in 2019(Q3).14 Chart 19:Jet fuel price,USD/bbl.15 Chart 20:Passenger ticket sales,7-day moving average,%share of the same period in 2019 .15 Chart 21:Passenger traffic(O-D)and%share of 2019 levels.15 Chart 22:Global O-D passengers in billions.15 Chart 23:Passenger traffic forecast by region,%share o

11、f 2019 levels .15 Chart 24:IATA Global Air Connectivity Index,Jan 2020-Sep 2023.17 Chart 25:Global airport pairs,Jan 2020-Sep 2023.17 Chart 26:Recovery in international connectivity by region through Sep 2023.17 Chart 27:Merchandise export volume change-annual(annual%change).20 Chart 28:Industry mon

12、thly CTKs in billions.20 Chart 29:Industry monthly ACTKs in billions .20 Chart 30:Year-to-date monthly industry ACTKs in billions.20 Chart 31:Growth of international ACTKs by type,annual%change.20 Chart 32:International CTKs by type in millions.20 Chart 33:International CTK growth by airline region

13、of registration,annual%change.21 Chart 34:Cargo load factors in major route areas,%share of ACTKs.21 Chart 35:Global manufacturing PMIs and industry CTK growth.21 Chart 36:PMI new export orders in major economies.21 Chart 37:PMI manufacturing output in major economies.21 Chart 38:Growth in inventory

14、-to-sales ratio and industry CTKs.21 Chart 39:Growth in global goods trade and industry CTKs.21 Chart 41:Growth in RPKs by airline region of registration,Africa.23 Chart 42:Growth in international RPKs by airline region of registration,Africa .23 Chart 43:Growth in CTKs by airline region of registra

15、tion,Africa.23 Chart 44:Ticket sales by region(7-day moving average),Africa.23 Chart 45:Passenger traffic(O-D)growth by country in Q3 2023,Africa.23 Chart 46:Aircraft deliveries in 2015-2023(scheduled),Africa.23 Chart 47:Growth in RPKs by airline region of registration,Americas.25 Chart 48:Growth in

16、 international RPKs by airline region of registration,Americas.25 Chart 49:Growth in CTKs by airline region of registration,Americas.25 Chart 50:Ticket sales by region(7-day moving average),Americas.25 Chart 51:Passenger traffic(O-D)growth by country in Q3 2023,Americas.25 Chart 52:Aircraft deliveri

17、es in 2015-2023(scheduled),Americas.25 Chart 53:Growth in RPKs by airline region of registration,Asia Pacific.27 5 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 Chart 54:Growth in international RPKs by airline region of registration,Asia Pacific.27 Chart 55:Growth in CTKs by airline region of registration,Asia Pacifi

18、c.27 Chart 56:Ticket sales by region(7-day moving average),Asia Pacific.27 Chart 57:Passenger traffic(O-D)growth by country in Q3 2023,Asia Pacific.27 Chart 58:Aircraft deliveries in 2015-2023(scheduled),Asia Pacific.27 Chart 59:Growth in RPKs by airline region of registration,Europe.29 Chart 60:Gro

19、wth in international RPKs by airline region of registration,Europe.29 Chart 61:Growth in CTKs by airline region of registration,Europe.29 Chart 62:Ticket sales by region(7-day moving average),Europe.29 Chart 63:Passenger traffic(O-D)growth by country in Q3 2023,Europe.29 Chart 64:Aircraft deliveries

20、 in 2015-2023(scheduled),Europe.29 Chart 65:Growth in RPKs by airline region of registration,Middle East.31 Chart 66:Growth in international RPKs by airline region of registration,Middle East .31 Chart 67:Growth in CTKs by airline region of registration,Middle East.31 Chart 68:Ticket sales by region

21、(7-day moving average),Middle East.31 Chart 69:Passenger traffic(O-D)growth by country in Q3 2023,Middle East.31 Chart 70:Aircraft deliveries in 2015-2023(scheduled),Middle East.31 6 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 I.The Business Cycle The global business cycle is holding up surprisingly well,in the fac

22、e of war in both Europe and the Middle East,and aggressive monetary policy tightening in major economies.The global economy is expected to grow in the vicinity of 3%over the coming years,in line with the average growth rate since the 1970s(Chart 1).The main drivers of global GDP growth are the US an

23、d China,shown in blue and red respectively in Chart 2.The US economy exceeded expectations in the third quarter of 2023,growing by 4.9%on an annualized basis(quarter-on-quarter growth multiplied by 4),and 2.9%year-on-year(YoY,from the same quarter in 2022).The goods and services sectors expanded at

24、the same pace of 2.4%YoY,but since the service sector is the larger,it contributed 1.6 percentage points(ppts)to the 4.9%total growth in the third quarter,compared to 1 ppt for the goods sector.Nevertheless,this represents an acceleration in growth for the goods sector from early 2022,while the serv

25、ice sector is seeing a relative deceleration.This points to a degree of normalization in consumption patterns in the wake of the Covid pandemic.Chinas economy also beat expectations in the third quarter of 2023,growing by 4.9%YoY.Over the first three quarters in 2023,the services sector grew by 6%,c

26、ompared to 4%growth in the goods sector,YoY.The average annual GDP growth rate between January and September 2023 stands at 5.2%,above the target of“around 5%”set by the government at the beginning of the year.This target now looks achievable,though there are still concerns regarding the property se

27、ctor.Real estate development investment fell by 9.1%YoY over the first three quarters.Foreign trade is also contracting,suffering from decreased demand in overseas markets and from the Covid pandemic and diplomatic developments which have perturbed supply chains.At its peak,Chinas residential proper

28、ty sector was estimated to contribute 25%-30%of the countrys GDP.More than half of Chinas top 50 property developers have gone into default,according to the Financial Times.1 This negatively impacts banks and credit,while unfinished housing projects are devastating households who paid upfront.Fewer

29、land sales spell lower tax revenues for local governments.China is on the brink of deflation,with consumer prices flat(0%YoY)in September.The policy interest rate,at 3.4%,could be cut further.A general government debt-to-GDP ratio of 77%(versus 122%in the US,for example),leaves some room for fiscal

30、stimulus though this is capped by the tax systems overreliance on property taxes.As such,developments in this domain pose a significant risk to the global business cycle.Globally,inflation still exceeds most central banks target of 2%,though the situation has certainly improved from 2022.In the US,c

31、onsumer price inflation stood at 3.7%in September 2023 YoY,while the euro area recorded 4.3%.Globally,the IMF forecasts a 6.9%inflation for 2023(Chart 3).Barring any surprise price developments in particular areas,the observed muted impact of monetary policy on inflation suggests that policy interes

32、t rates will remain relatively high for longer.One reason for the persistently high inflation rates is the low unemployment rates that are benefiting most countries(Chart 4).Low unemployment is“recession-proofing”the global economy to a certain extent,allowing for decent levels of consumption while

33、simultaneously lifting(nominal)wages both of which likely explain part of why prices are so sticky.With the US policy interest rate at 5.5%,and a relatively high degree of global economic policy uncertainty(Chart 5),there is every reason to expect that the US dollar will continue to benefit from its

34、 safe-haven status and remain strong versus most other currencies(Chart 6).A strong US dollar tends to have a growth-dampening effect on the global economy.Of course,countries and regions exporting to the US 1 Hale et.al.,“How Chinas property crisis has unfolded,from Evergrande to Country Garden”,FT

35、,23 October 2023 7 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 can benefit,such as Europe,but all paying bills in US dollars while not earning in that currency will be negatively impacted.This is also the case for all USD-denominated debt held by foreigners.Hence,overall,the global business cycle remains in what ca

36、n be described as lukewarm territory,with the risks skewed to the downside.Upside potential could materialize in particular if the conflicts in Europe and the Middle East were to end,and if more growth-promoting economic policies were put in place,including more effective support for the energy tran

37、sition.8 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 Chart 1:Global gross domestic product(constant USD),annual%change Chart 2:Contribution from large economies to world GDP growth(%)Chart 3:Global inflation as Consumer Price Index(CPI),annual%change Chart 4:Unemployment,total by country group(%of total labor force

38、)Chart 5:Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Chart 6:Foreign exchange rates -4-202468200020042008200242028Source:International Monetary Fund(IMF),October 2023 updateannual%change-4-202468ChinaUnited StatesIndiaEuro AreaRest of the WorldWorld GDP Growth RateSource:IATA Sustainability&

39、Economics,IMF World Economic Outlookpercent8.76.90Source:IATA Sustainability&Economics,IMF World Economic Outlookannual%change0246899432006200920021Sub-Saharan AfricaSouth AsiaLatin America&CaribbeanNorth AmericaMiddle East&North AfricaEast Asia&PacificSou

40、rce:World Bank,World Bank Development Indicatorspercent05003003504004504200820023Source:Federal Reserve Economic Data6070809002120222023USDEUROJapanese YenChinese RMBRealeffective exchange rate indexSource:Bank for International Settlements(BIS)

41、9 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 II.Sustainable Investments Investors who seek to invest sustainably often do so by allocating money to investment funds that are labeled sustainable.Such labels typically reflect the application of sustainability criteria in the investment decisions made for the fund.In

42、 Europe,the Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation classifies investment funds according to how stringently the fund applies sustainability criteria in the asset allocation decisions.Funds that do not have any sustainability drivers are called Article 6 funds,those that promote environmental or s

43、ocial characteristics fall in the Article 8 category,and Article 9 funds have sustainable investment as their prime objective.Commonly,Article 8 and 9 funds and their equivalents in other jurisdictions are referred to as ESG funds.Europe dominates the sustainable investment landscape.However,Europea

44、n investors withdrew EUR 20.5 billion from Article 8 funds in the third quarter,and Article 9 funds saw the lowest inflows since 2021,at EUR 1.4 billion.The number of ESG funds launched in the third quarter in Europe dropped by 31%from the second quarter.In the US,sustainable funds just recorded the

45、ir fourth consecutive quarter of outflows.Investors withdrew USD 2.7 billion from sustainable funds in the third quarter,and a total of USD 14.2 billion of outflows have been seen over the past year,according to Morningstar(Chart 7).The organic growth rate(representing the difference between net inf

46、lows and net outflows,as a percent of total assets)shows the relative decline in sustainable funds(blue line),compared to the broader fund market(yellow line).Also of note is that the total number of ESG funds fell in the US in the third quarter,as more funds closed than the number of new funds open

47、ed a first since 2020.Turning to the performance of ESG funds in terms of total returns,they tend to follow the broader market as many of the constituent assets are common to both.However,regarding funds that invest in small and medium-sized companies,notably in the renewable energy domain,there is

48、a clear divergence in performance compared to that of non-ESG funds.Since January 2022,ETFs(exchange-traded funds)focused on solar,wind,and other green sources of energy underperformed the traditional energy sector which is mostly made up of oil and gas companies(Chart 8).These outflows as well as t

49、he relative performance of energy ESG funds show that investment decisions are first and foremost based on fundamentals such as commodity prices,profitability,and cash flows.Only when the fundamentals make sense do ESG criteria enter the equation.Higher interest rates,geopolitical uncertainty,high o

50、il prices,recession fears,and the buzz around artificial intelligence are all among the factors that have influenced investors priorities and relative preferences over the third quarter.Indeed,money market funds,bond funds,and traditional energy funds have all seen more inflows in the current market

51、 context a context that is likely to continue to weigh on ESG funds going forward.Energy Transition Highlights Airlines committed to net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 at the 77th International Air Transport Association(IATA)Annual General Meeting in 2021.In 2022,member states of the Internat

52、ional Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO)agreed to a long-term aspirational goal(LTAG)of net zero carbon dioxide emissions from aviation by 2050.According to the baseline scenario used in the IATA Net Zero Roadmaps2,the anticipated traffic of the industry in 2050 would likely generate 1.8 billion tonn

53、es of carbon emissions if fueled by traditional jet kerosene.As a drop-in solution,with equivalent combustion properties but reduced life cycle carbon emissions,Sustainable Aviation Fuel(SAF)will be one of the key levers to reach net-zero carbon emissions in aviation.2 Read more on IATA Net Zero Roa

54、dmaps:https:/www.iata.org/en/programs/environment/roadmaps/10 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Airlines have continued to announce SAF offtake agreements,reaching 46 SAF offtake agreements and 22 non-binding agreements since 2022,including both memoranda of understanding(MoUs)an

55、d letters of intent(Chart 9).58 out of the total 68 SAF offtake agreements are based on biofuel SAFs from four pathways,namely Hydro-processed Esters and Fatty Acids(HEFA),HEFA Co-Processing,Syngas Fischer-Tropsch(Syngas-FT),and Alcohol to Jet(AtJ).The remaining ten offtake agreements are associated

56、 with e-fuel SAF,derived from various Power-to-Liquid(PtL)projects.HEFA is the most common SAF production pathway in the SAF offtake agreements,as it is the most mature technology currently(Chart 10).However,in the third quarter of 2023,the HEFA SAF accounted for a smaller share of the total estimat

57、ed SAF offtake volume,compared to the AtJ or the PtL pathways,despite fewer agreements pertaining to the latter.Particularly,the PtL SAF agreements tend to concern longer periods compared to other pathways and,therefore,involve larger offtake volumes of SAF.Based on IATAs data sources,over 150 renew

58、able fuel projects have been identified with commitments to including SAF in their product slate,spanning more than 110 producers in 35 countries.With new projects announced in the third quarter of 2023,these projects represent an estimated total renewable fuel capacity of 59 million tonnes by 2029.

59、Further capacity announcements for 2026 and beyond can be expected(Chart 11).There is typically a lag of between 3-to 6-years between project announcement and commercialization.Over the same period,the HEFA pathway is expected to contribute more than 80%of the total global renewable fuel capacity,fo

60、llowed by around 8%of AtJ,on the 2029 horizon(Chart 12).The share of HEFA co-processing has increased to 5%,while the other pathways remain unchanged.11 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 Chart 7:US Funds Flows:Sustainable versus all US funds Chart 8:Relative total return of selected green energy ETFs vs S

61、&P500 Energy Index Index,January 2022=100 Chart 9:Number of SAF offtake agreements(as of Sep 2023)Chart 10:Total number of SAF offtake agreements per pathway(as of Sep 2023)Chart 11:Cumulative renewable fuel capacity(Mt)Chart 12:Total renewable fuel capacity,%share by pathway -6%-3%0%3%6%9%12%15%-10

62、-50510152025Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q32020202120222023$BilSustainable Fund FlowsSustainable Funds Organic Growth RateAll U.S.Funds OGREstimated Net FlowsOrganic Growth RateSource:Morningstar.0204060800180200NovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJanDecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan20232022iShares

63、 Global Clean Energy UCITSS&P 500 Energy IndexFirst Trust Global Wind EnergyInvesco SolarSource:IATA Sustainability&Economics,Macrobond04423520506070800246810JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep20222023Number of agreements of the monthCumulative numbe

64、r of agreements(RHS)Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics4.314.926.237.244.954.258.559.000708020222023202420252026202720282029Source:IATA Sustainability&EconomicsAtJ8.1%CHJ0.3%HEFA82.6%PtL0.8%Syngas FT3.5%HEFA Co-processing4.6%Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics63589530

65、3540HEFA Co-processingHEFAAtJSyngas-FTPtLSource:IATA Sustainability andEconomics 12 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 III.Passenger and Cargo Traffic Passenger Traffic In the third quarter of 2023(Q3 2023),global air passenger traffic,measured in revenue passenger-kilometers(RPKs),increased by 28.4%over t

66、he past year.This takes RPKs to 96.3%of their level in Q3 2019,a significant improvement from the 75.0%level recorded a year ago(Chart 13).In terms of available seat kilometers(ASKs),capacity increased at a slower pace than passenger traffic in Q3 2023,gaining 25.8%from the previous year,and falling

67、 3.4%short of its pre-pandemic level(Chart 14).The industry-wide passenger load factor(PLF)rose by 1.7 ppts in Q3 2023 compared to the same quarter last year.European and North American airlines reported the highest load factors at 87.2%and 85.8%,respectively,with the latter experiencing a marginal

68、decrease from the previous year.Reflecting the strong demand recovery,Asia Pacific carriers saw the largest increase in load factors,reaching 81.4%,a 6.6 ppt jump from last year.All remaining regions increased their PLFs in the third quarter,bringing the industry-wide figure to within 0.3%of 2019 it

69、s level(Chart 15).Global domestic RPKs sustained a robust expansion in 2023,growing by 24.7%YoY in Q3 2023,and now exceeding the pre-pandemic level by 7.4%.Major domestic markets,including the US,China,India,and Brazil,all now surpass their 2019 domestic RPK figures.Thanks to strong growth in domest

70、ic tourism,China has seen a doubling of domestic traffic over the past year and a 17.4%increase over the same quarter in 2019.India and the US followed with 20.5%and 8.1%YoY growth in their Q3 2022 domestic traffic,respectively.Despite the impact of major typhoons,Japan saw its domestic passenger tr

71、affic rise 13.5%over the previous year but remained below the 2019 level by 6.4%(Chart 16).In Q3 2023,July broke records for domestic RPKs,surpassing the previous all-time high set in July 2019.Although July is typically a record-setting month for passenger traffic,this year was exceptional,as seaso

72、nally adjusted domestic RPKs also outperformed their December 2019 peak.International passenger demand approached the pre-pandemic level,recovering to 90.3%of Q3 2019 traffic levels.This marks a 2.0 ppt improvement over the level of last quarter(88.3%of 2019 levels).North American carriers have surp

73、assed their pre-pandemic international traffic volumes,achieving 102.6%of Q3 2019 international RPKs(Chart 17).Carriers in the Middle East and Latin America were close to full recovery in the third quarter of 2023,and they exceeded 2019 traffic levels in the month of September 2023 by 5.3%and 2.0%,r

74、espectively.For Q3,global premium international traffic recovered to 95.8%of its 2019 levels,and international traffic in the economy cabin class followed at 89.9%.North American airlines lead the way across both cabin classes,surpassing 2019 levels by 7.5%in premium and 2.0%in economy.In the econom

75、y category,Latin American carriers ranked second,with 1.5%more international passenger traffic compared with 2019.Airlines from other regions,including Asia Pacific,Africa,and Europe,were well below their 2019 levels,falling short by 24.4%,9.8%,and 8.0%,respectively.The Middle East airlines were onl

76、y 1.0%below pre-pandemic levels.In the premium cabin category,only North American and the Middle East carriers saw international traffic surpass their 2019 levels,by 7.5%and 0.9%,respectively(Chart 18).The recovery in global passenger traffic continued to face headwinds in the third quarter of 2023.

77、Jet fuel prices rose again,surpassing historical averages and exacerbating the input and operational cost challenges faced by airlines(Chart 19).Ticket sales provide a useful indicator of near-term trends in passenger demand.Since the pandemic,domestic ticket sales have generally outpaced internatio

78、nal ticket sales.In Q3 2023,domestic ticket sales 13 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 plateaued,and international sales increased at a moderate pace(Chart 20).Recent data indicates that total domestic passenger traffic growth could remain flat or decline as pent-up tourism in China cools,potentially affe

79、cting industry-wide and regional figures.Despite the slowdown in domestic sales,the number of origin-destination(O-D)passengers could remain resilient in the coming months,sustaining their current growth trend through the end of the year(Chart 21).Looking forward,our latest passenger forecast antici

80、pates a return to pre-pandemic O-D passenger volumes by early 2024,with the long-term outlook showing a doubling of passenger numbers by 2040.However,despite this growth trajectory,macroeconomic challenges pose increased risks to our short-term outlook(Chart 22).Inflation,which peaked in late 2022,r

81、emains elevated,diminishing the purchasing power of consumers.While the robust labor market has mitigated the impact of inflation,a potential increase in unemployment would likely negatively impact future air travel demand.Overall,the balance of risks around our forecasts remains tilted to the downs

82、ide.Strong passenger demand is driving the airline industry toward full recovery,and our current forecast remains positive,anticipating that most regions will reach pre-pandemic passenger levels in 2023.The Asia Pacific region is expected to catch up in 2024 as international connections are restored

83、.Global O-D passenger traffic is projected to reach the same level as the full-year passenger numbers observed in 2019 by 2024.However,this level will remain below the level projected for global passengers before the pandemic(Chart 22,Chart 23).14 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 Chart 13:Industry monthl

84、y RPKs in billions Chart 14:Industry monthly ASKs in billions Chart 15:Passenger load factor(PLF),%share of ASKs(Q3)Chart 16:Domestic RPKs by country market,%change versus the same month in 2019 Chart 17:International RPKs by airline region of registration,%share of the same period in 2019 Chart 18:

85、International RPKs by cabin class,%change vs the same period in 2019(Q3)00500600700800900JanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJul20020202120222023ActualSeasonally AdjustedSource:IATA Sustainability and Economics,IATA Monthly Statistics02

86、004006008001,0001,200JanMaySepJanMaySepJanMaySepJanMaySepJanMaySepJanMaySepJanMaySepJanMaySep2000222023ActualSeasonally AdjustedSource:IATA Sustainability and Economics,IATA Monthly Statistics84.5%73.7%82.4%88.3%83.5%79.6%86.3%82.5%75.4%74.8%86.5%83.1%80.3%86.7%84.2%74.7%81.4%8

87、7.2%85.2%82.7%85.8%IndustryAfricaAsia/PacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddle EastNorthAmerica202320222019Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,IATA Monthly Statistics-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%JanMarMayJulSepNovJanMarMayJulSepNovJanMarMayJulSepNovJanMarMayJulSep2020202120222023AustraliaBrazilIndiaJapa

88、nUnited StatesPR ChinaSource:IATA Monthly Statistics88.3%88.1%69.5%94.0%91.7%99.3%101.4%90.3%90.6%76.5%92.2%99.9%99.2%102.6%IndustryAfricaAsia PacificEuropeLatin America&CaribbeanMiddle EastNorthAmericaQ3 2023 vs 19Q2 2023 vs 19Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,IATA Monthly Statistics-3.2%-13

89、.1%-3.9%-20.8%0.9%7.5%-4.2%-9.8%-24.4%-8.0%1.5%-1.0%2.0%-10.1%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%AfricaAsia PacificEuropeLatinAmericaandCaribbeanMiddle EastNorthAmericaIndustryPremiumEconomyShare of intl RPKs by class(identical in 2019,2021 and 2022)Economy:92%Premium:8%Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,IA

90、TA Monthly Statistics 15 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 Chart 19:Jet fuel price,USD/bbl Chart 20:Passenger ticket sales,7-day moving average,%share of the same period in 2019 Chart 21:Passenger traffic(O-D)and%share of 2019 levels Chart 22:Global O-D passengers in billions Chart 23:Passenger traffic fo

91、recast by region,%share of 2019 levels Estimated year of recovery to 2019 passenger traffic levels Africa Asia Pacific Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East North America World 2023 2024 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 0204060800180200Jan-16May-16Sep-16Jan-17May-17Sep-17Jan-18May-18

92、Sep-18Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23Sep-23Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,S&P Global Commodity Insights0%20%40%60%80%100%120%DomesticInternationalSources:IATA Sustainability and Economics,DDS0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%110%-35156511

93、55365Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23Sep-23Passengers,LHS%share of 2019,RHSMillionsSource:IATASustainability and Economics,DDS000022202320242025Pre-COVID 19 BaselineBaselineRange of uncertainty2019 level recovered by 2024S

94、ource:IATA Sustainability and Economics/Tourism Economics0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%AfricaAsia PacificEuropeLatin America&CaribbeanMiddle EastNorth AmericaWorld2020202242025Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics/Tourism Economics 16 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 Global Air Connectivity Inc

95、reased connectivity drives improved economic outcomes for all countries and communities.Air transport is a vital form of connectivity in the modern economy.It provides the city-pair connections that serve as virtual bridges supporting the flows of goods and people between markets.As the only rapid g

96、lobal transportation network,air transport facilitates links between businesses,governments,and people enabling world trade,investment,tourism and travel,innovation,and the spreading of ideas,among other key economic activities.The ongoing recovery in air traffic volumes is accompanied by network gr

97、owth and increases in connectivity.As of September 2023,IATAs Global Air Connectivity Index,which measures connectivity as scheduled passenger capacity weighted by the relative economic size of destinations served,had recovered to 90%of its pre-pandemic level for international connectivity,up 21.8 p

98、pts over the past year.Domestic connectivity is currently at 97.5%of its 2019 level,having increased by a more modest 8.7 ppts over the past 12 months(Chart 24).Digging deeper,the number of domestic airport pairs served currently exceeds the 2019 level by 2.0%.The number of international airport pai

99、rs has also risen,although at 92.7%it is yet to recover fully(Chart 25).Flight frequency for international routes reached 89.8%of the 2019 level,lagging that of domestic flight frequency at 93.0%.The recovery in connectivity is broad-based across regions.Latin America&the Caribbean is the strongest

100、performer currently;in September 2023 international air connectivity in the region reached 106.9%of the level in 2019.The Middle East region and Africa follow closely with 104.6%and 104.2%of their respective pre-Covid levels.North America and Europe have yet to reach their 2019 level of connectivity

101、,at 93.8%and 91.0%,respectively.Asia Pacific,currently at 79.1%of the 2019 level,continues to lag the other regions(Chart 26).However,with important regional markets such as China now fully open,Asia Pacific has seen a strong increase of 39 ppts in international air connectivity over the past year,c

102、losing the gap to the other regions from 37 ppts in January 2022 to 12 ppts in September 2023.17 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 Chart 24:IATA Global Air Connectivity Index,Jan 2020-Sep 2023 Chart 25:Global airport pairs,Jan 2020-Sep 2023 Chart 26:Recovery in international connectivity by region through

103、 Sep 2023 020406080100120JanMarMayJulSepNovJanMarMayJulSepNovJanMarMayJulSepNovJanMarMayJulSep2020202120222023DomesticInternational89.597.5Index 2019level=100Source:IATA ConnectivityIndex using data from OAG020406080100120DecFebAprJunAugOctDecFebAprJunAugOctDecFebAprJunAugOctDecFebAprJunAug201920202

104、02120222023DomesticInternational92.6Index 2019level=100Source:IATA Connectivity Index using data from OAG102.0020406080100120140DecFebAprJunAugOctDecFebAprJunAugOctDecFebAprJunAugOctDecFebAprJunAug200222023Global internationalNorth AmericaAsia PacificEuropeMiddle EastLatin America&Caribbe

105、anAfricaIndex 2019level=100Source:IATA Connectivity Index using data from OAG 18 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 Cargo Traffic The annual growth in world merchandise trade is anticipated to slow to 0.8%in 2023,a significant decrease from the 3.0%growth observed in 2022(Chart 27).This decline can be attr

106、ibuted to persistent inflation,conflict in Europe and the Middle East,further geopolitical tensions,and troubled supply chains.Despite these challenging circumstances for global trade,the air cargo sector shows some positive signs.Global air cargo traffic,as measured by cargo tonne-kilometers(CTKs),

107、posted its first positive annual rate of growth in August 2023,following a series of YoY declines since February 2022.Industry-wide CTKs saw a modest uptick of 0.6%YoY in Q3 2023,marking a notable improvement from the previous quarters 5.1%annual decrease in cargo traffic(Chart 28).Year-to-date(YTD)

108、,CTKs reached 177.8 billion as of September,narrowing the gap with the 2022 YTD levels.Available cargo tonne-kilometers(ACTKs),measuring air cargo capacity,maintained double-digit growth throughout Q3 2023,leading to 12.8%YoY growth for the quarter overall.ACTKs stood 3.3%above the pre-pandemic 2019

109、 level(Chart 29).Through September,YTD ACTKs reached 410.0 billion,a 10.4%increase from YTD levels for the same period in 2022(Chart 30).The rapid growth in industry-wide ACTKs largely reflects the restoration of belly cargo capacity across various markets.In the third quarter of 2023,international

110、air cargo capacity increased by 10.9%YoY.The growth was primarily driven by the returning passenger belly-hold capacity on international routes,which was up 31.1%YoY.However,international capacity on dedicated freighters fell slightly by 0.14%in Q3(Chart 31).As a result,the share of total internatio

111、nal ACTKs provided by dedicated freighters continued to normalise,easing to 46.2%in Q3 2023 and approaching their pre-pandemic share of around 40%(Chart 32).In the third quarter of 2023,international air cargo demand registered its first annual growth since the close of 2021.By the end of Q3 2023,ai

112、rlines registered in Asia Pacific,the Middle East,and Latin America emerged as top performers with the highest annual growth in international CTKs.Asia Pacific and Middle East carriers gained 4.2%and 2.5%YoY respectively in September(from 2.5%and 1.3%in August).Latin American carriers outperformed t

113、he remaining regions,even with a slight dip to 1.5%YoY growth in September.North American carriers ended the quarter with 0.9%annual growth,while traffic for airlines registered in Africa and Europe contracted by 0.3%and 1.7%,respectively(Chart 33).Air cargo load factors(CLF)across major trade lanes

114、 showed an upward trend by the end of Q3 2023(Chart 34).The industry CLF reached 49.0%by the quarters end,up from 48.6%in June.The largest trade lanes,such as Asia Pacific to Europe and North America to Asia Pacific,maintained CLFs of 67.6%and 63.5%respectively in September.Within Asia,the CLF ended

115、 the quarter above the industry average,despite a slight decrease in August.In comparison,smaller trade lanes such as Europe to the Middle East,and the Middle East to the Asia Pacific concluded the quarter below the industry average,with CLFs of 48.7%and 42.9%respectively.Turning to the Purchasing M

116、anagers Index(PMI),a key indicator of air cargo demand(Chart 35),both new export orders PMI and the manufacturing output PMI in Q3 remained below the critical 50-mark,at 49.7 and 47.7,respectively.A PMI below 50 is the result of a majority of respondents expecting worsening conditions compared to th

117、e previous month and above 50 the majority expect an improvement.These figures were nevertheless an improvement from the end of Q2 2023.The upward trend in both PMI components throughout Q3 2023 signals a positive outlook for air cargo demand into the fourth quarter.Looking at the new export orders

118、PMI for major economies(Chart 36),China stood at 49.1 in September,up from 46.0 in July.The US was virtually unchanged at 48.7 in September.The European PMI,though the lowest among the major economies,improved from 40.5 in July to 42.0 in September.Japan also showed a slight improvement in Q3,ending

119、 at 47.1 in September.19 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 Regarding the manufacturing output PMI of the worlds major economies during Q3(Chart 37),the trends mirror those observed in the new export orders PMI.China maintained its manufacturing PMI above the 50 mark in the last two months of Q3(51.6 in Au

120、gust and 51.8 in September),though it began the quarter at 49.2.The US experienced a mid-quarter decline but recovered by the quarters end to 50.8.Europes manufacturing PMI showed a slight increase over Q3 but remained the weakest performer among the major economies at about 44.0,and Japan saw a sli

121、ght decline from 48.9 in July to 48.7 in September.The inventory-to-sales ratio,also historically correlated with industry CTK growth rates,provides more perspective on the soft demand for air cargo(Chart 38).A higher inventory-to-sales ratio indicates either excess stock or insufficient demand.In Q

122、3 2023,the annual growth in the US inventory-to-sales ratio(inverted in the chart)increased by 1.2 ppts and 1.1 ppts in August and September,respectively,compared to July.Global goods trade sustained YoY contractions over Q3 2023(Chart 39),mirroring the evolution in the inventory-to-sales ratio and

123、confirming the cooling market demand.However,air cargo demand growth surpassed that in global goods trade in Q3 for the first time since December 2021.While the annual decline in global goods trade occurred from a high base in 2022,the annual growth in air cargo is from a low base in that year.These

124、 base-year effects are important when comparing the relative performance of air cargo and global trade.20 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 Chart 27:Merchandise export volume change-annual(annual%change)Chart 28:Industry monthly CTKs in billions Chart 29:Industry monthly ACTKs in billions Chart 30:Year-to

125、-date monthly industry ACTKs in billions Chart 31:Growth of international ACTKs by type,annual%change Chart 32:International ACTKs by type in billions 2.31.44.93.20.4-5.19.63.00.83.3-8-5-22000222023P 2024PSource:IATA Sustainability and Economics,World Trade Organizat

126、ion(WTO)annual%change0222426Actual CTKsSeasonally-adjusted CTKsSource:IATA Sustainability and Economics,IATA Monthly Statistics0455055Actual ACTKsSeasonally-adjusted ACTKsSources:IATA Sustainability and Economics,IATA Monthly Statistics00500600JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAu

127、gSepOctNovDec201920222023Sources:IATA Sustainability and Economics,IATA Monthly Statistics-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%Jan-20 Jun-20 Nov-20 Apr-21 Sep-21 Feb-22 Jul-22 Dec-22 May-23Dedicated Freighters YoYPassenger Belly YoYInternational ACTK YoYSources:IATA Sustainab

128、ility and Economics,IATA Monthly Statisticsannual%change05540Dedicated freightersPassenger bellyPreightersSources:IATA Sustainability and Economics,IATA Monthly Statistics 21 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 Chart 33:International CTK growth by airline region of registration,annual%change Char

129、t 34:Cargo load factors in major route areas,%share of ACTKs Chart 35:Global manufacturing PMIs and industry CTK growth Chart 36:PMI new export orders in major economies Chart 37:PMI manufacturing output in major economies Chart 38:Growth in inventory-to-sales ratio and industry CTKs Chart 39:Growth

130、 in global goods trade and industry CTKs 1.4%5.8%1.3%-0.8%2.5%-3.6%1.2%0.9%1.5%2.5%-1.7%4.2%-0.3%1.6%-10%-5%0%5%10%North AmericaLatin AmericaMiddle EastEuropeAsia/PacificAfricaIndustrySep 2023Aug 2023Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,IATA Monthly Statistics20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%Asia Pacific

131、-EuropeNorth America-Asia PacificIndustry averageWithin AsiaEurope-North AmericaEurope-Middle EastSource:IATA Sustainability and Economics,IATA Monthly Statistics20304050607080-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%50=no changeSeasonally adjusted industry CTKs,YoYGlobal Manufacturing Output PMIGlobal

132、New Export Orders PMISource:IATA Sustainability and Economics,IATA Monthly Statistics,S&P Global 0455055606570GlobalUSChinaEuropeJapanSource:IATA Sustainability and Economics,S&P Global Markit50=no change04550556065GlobalUSChinaEuropeJapanSources:IATA Sustainability and Economi

133、cs,S&P Global Markit50=no change-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%Jan-08Sep-08May-09Jan-10Sep-10May-11Jan-12Sep-12May-13Jan-14Sep-14May-15Jan-16Sep-16May-17Jan-18Sep-18May-19Jan-20Sep-20May-21Jan-22Sep-22May-23Seasonally adjusted CTKs,YoYUS inventory-to-sales ratio,YoY

134、(inverted scale)Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,IATA monthly statistics,Macrobond-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%Jan-17Apr-17Jul-17Oct-17Jan-18Apr-18Jul-18Oct-18Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Relative perform

135、ance of air cargo growthIndustry-wide CTKsGlobal goods tradeSource:IATA Sustainability and Economics,IATA Monthly Statistics,Macrobond 22 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 IV.Regional Outlook Africa In Q3 2023,African carriers achieved a 25.1%annual increase in total air passenger traffic(RPKs)compared to

136、 the same quarter last year.This placed African airlines in third place globally,behind Asia Pacific and the Middle East,which experienced annual growth rates of 75.6%and 25.6%,respectively.However,the regions total RPKs were 6.3%lower compared to Q3 2019,in other words showing a recovery to 93.1%of

137、 the pre-pandemic traffic(Chart 40).Seat capacity of African carriers,measured as available seat-kilometers,grew by 26.3%YoY in Q3 2023.This increase outpaced RPK growth and resulted in a small reduction in the passenger load factor.Although the PLF for African carriers remained slightly above the 2

138、019 level,it significantly lagged the industry average.This highlights ongoing challenges for airlines in the region,particularly in the face of economic difficulties impacting air travel affordability.International traffic of African carriers grew by 27.0%in Q3 2023 compared to the same period last

139、 year,marking the second-strongest performance globally,behind Asia Pacific.However,international RPKs of Africas airlines remained 9.4%below their pre-pandemic level.Despite this,the regions annual growth and recovery in international air traffic closely followed the industry-wide performance in th

140、e third quarter of 2023(Chart 41).Air cargo traffic of African airlines,measured in CTKs,showed a slight dip of 0.5%below their 2022 level.Nevertheless,the regions carriers outperformed their pre-pandemic level by 7.8%,ranking second globally,just after the North American carriers(Chart 42).The grow

141、th rate in trade lanes connecting Africa to Asia played a pivotal role in driving the regions airline performance in Q3 2023,posting the fastest annual growth in September at 12.8%.Ticket sales growth for the Africa region trended below the global average for most of Q3,but saw a positive upswing,pe

142、aking at 13.5%in mid-August,surpassing the global average(Chart 44).The number of projected airline deliveries for the year has also increased from last quarters projections,now standing at 33(Chart 46).Major country markets in the region continued to exceed their Q3 2019 origin-destination(O-D)pass

143、enger levels.Ethiopia led the way,up 31%vs 2019,followed by Egypt at 28%and Nigeria at 22%.South Africas O-D passengers remained 10%below the 2019 level,reflecting economic and industry structural challenges in restoring air service.Rcovery continued across the Northern African countries,including M

144、orocco,Algeria,and Tunisia,which recorded passenger numbers above the Q3 2019 levels of 17%,4%,and 1%,respectively(Chart 44).23 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 Chart 40:Growth in RPKs by airline region of registration,Africa Chart 41:Growth in international RPKs by airline region of registration,Africa

145、Chart 42:Growth in CTKs by airline region of registration,Africa Chart 43:Ticket sales by region(7-day moving average),Africa Chart 44:Passenger traffic(O-D)growth by country in Q3 2023,Africa Chart 45:Aircraft deliveries in 2015-2023(scheduled),Africa 25.1%75.6%12.7%16.3%25.6%11.5%28.4%-6.9%-8.5%-5

146、.0%5.1%-0.6%2.3%-3.7%-50%0%50%100%AfricaAsia PacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddleEastNorthAmericaIndustryvs Q3 2022vs Q3 2019%change in Q3 2023Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,Monthly Statistics27.0%99.4%14.7%26.1%26.2%18.4%30.8%-9.4%-23.5%-7.8%-0.1%-0.8%2.6%-9.7%-50%0%50%100%150%AfricaAsiaPacifi

147、cEuropeLatinAmericaMiddleEastNorthAmericaIndustryvs Q3 2022vs Q3 2019%change in Q3 2023Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,Monthly Statistics-0.5%4.5%-1.2%2.9%1.2%-3.0%0.6%7.8%-4.7%-13.0%-2.0%1.8%8.9%-2.2%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%AfricaAsia PacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddle EastNorthAmericaIndustryvs

148、 Q3 2022vs Q3 2019%change in Q3 2023Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,Monthly Statistics-120%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%Jan-2020Jul-2020Jan-2021Jul-2021Jan-2022Jul-2022Jan-2023Jul-20237-daymoving average,%change vs the same period in 2019GlobalAfricaSource:IATA Sustainability and Economics,

149、DDS4%28%31%-2%17%22%-10%1%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%changein Q3 2023 vs Q3 2019Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,DDS0020002120222023Africa(Delivered)ScheduledSource:IATA Sustainanbility and Economics using CiriumNumber of commercial aircraftWorld share1

150、RPKASKPLF(%-pt)RPKASKPLF(%-pt)PLF(level)TOTAL MARKET100.0%28.4%25.8%1.7%-3.7%-3.4%-0.3%84.2%Africa2.1%25.1%26.3%-0.7%-6.9%-8.1%0.9%74.7%1%of industry RPKs in 2022%year-on-year vs Q3 2022%year-on-year vs Q3 2019Note:The total industry and regional growth rates are based on a constant sample of airlin

151、es combining reported data and estimates for missing observations.Airline traffic is allocated according to the region in which the carrier is registrated;it should not be considered as regional traffic.24 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 Americas In Q3 2023,North American and Latin American airlines exh

152、ibited continued growth in total RPKs,recording increases of 11.5%and 16.3%YoY,respectively.This sustained performance positions the Americas as leaders in surpassing pre-pandemic passenger traffic levels.Latin American airlines outpaced Q3 2019 levels by 5.1%,with their North American counterparup

153、2.3%(Chart 46).Despite being the region with the second-lowest international passenger traffic growth,Latin America saw a 26.1%YoY increase in international RPKs,while North America reported the lowest growth rate among all regions,with an 18.4%YoY increase.Both regions,however,are seeing slower gro

154、wth as they have fully recovered and surpassed 2019 levels,unlike other regions such as Asia-Pacific,which continue to exhibit higher growth rates(Chart 47).On the North American side,both Canada and the US have exceeded 2019 levels in the domestic market,with Canada driving the international segmen

155、ts rapid recovery.In Latin America,most countries surpassed 2019 levels in domestic markets,but a slower recovery in critical regional markets,including Argentina,Peru,Chile,and Brazil,resulted in a 6-20 ppt lag in international RPKs compared with 2019.Colombia,Mexico,Ecuador,Costa Rica,and the Domi

156、nican Republic led the regions international performance,each surpassing 2019 levels by more than 11 ppts.Notably,Colombia demonstrated exceptional performance,with a 20%growth rate compared to Q3 2019,making it the top market performer.In the post-pandemic period,Colombia not only recovered connect

157、ivity but expanded the number of served routes,contributing to a favorable environment for tourism,where air transport represents nearly 90%of international tourists arriving in the country.Ticket sales in the third quarter reflected a positive trend,aligning with the summer season.Airlines in the r

158、egion are now preparing for North Americas winter season,which triggers the high season in the Caribbean beach destinations.Although ticket sales in the region slightly outperformed the global average trend,the gap narrowed in Q3 as global ticket sales gathered momentum and recovered to their pre-cr

159、isis volume(Chart 49).Cargo traffic for North American carriers continued to trend downwards in the third quarter,to be 3%below Q3 2022,but 8.9%above Q3 2019 levels.The decline in North Americas air cargo demand can be partly explained by the rebound in the maritime industry and the return to the ne

160、w“normal”after the pandemic.Latin American carriers,in contrast,saw a 2.9%growth in CTKs above Q3 2022 levels but remained 2%below 2019 levels.This divergence reflects strong demand for goods from Latin America,with key exports such as flowers,salmon,and cross-border commerce with the US contributin

161、g to the regions resilience(Chart 48).Several Latin American countries sustained O-D passenger traffic above 2019 levels.The Dominican Republic,for example,demonstrated resilience with a remarkable 36.4%growth.Conversely,challenges emerged in Colombia due to macroeconomic factors,including the retur

162、n of VAT to 19%on tickets,and in Argentina,where uncertainty surrounding the December 2023 presidential elections intensified macroeconomic turmoil and currency devaluation(Chart 50).Around one-third of global aircraft deliveries in 2023 will be destined for North America,primarily the US.After surp

163、assing 2019 levels last year,North American deliveries are expected to increase by an additional 95 units in 2023,aligning with the regions anticipated full recovery in passenger traffic.In Latin America,deliveries to airlines rebounded to pre-pandemic levels in 2022,with increased capacity by regio

164、nal carriers during 2023,in line with rising demand for air travel in the region(Chart 51).25 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 Chart 46:Growth in RPKs by airline region of registration,Americas Chart 47:Growth in international RPKs by airline region of registration,Americas Chart 48:Growth in CTKs by air

165、line region of registration,Americas Chart 49:Ticket sales by region(7-day moving average),Americas Chart 50:Passenger traffic(O-D)growth by country in Q3 2023,Americas Chart 51:Aircraft deliveries in 2015-2023(scheduled),Americas 25.1%75.6%12.7%16.3%25.6%11.5%28.4%-6.9%-8.5%-5.0%5.1%-0.6%2.3%-3.7%-

166、50%0%50%100%AfricaAsia PacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddleEastNorthAmericaIndustryvs Q3 2022vs Q3 2019%change in Q3 2023Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,Monthly Statistics27.0%99.4%14.7%26.1%26.2%18.4%30.8%-9.4%-23.5%-7.8%-0.1%-0.8%2.6%-9.7%-50%0%50%100%150%AfricaAsia PacificEuropeLatinAmericaMi

167、ddle EastNorthAmericaIndustryvs Q3 2022vs Q3 2019%change in Q3 2023Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,Monthly Statistics-0.5%4.5%-1.2%2.9%1.2%-3.0%0.6%7.8%-4.7%-13.0%-2.0%1.8%8.9%-2.2%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%AfricaAsia PacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddle EastNorthAmericaIndustryvs Q3 2022vs Q3 2019%c

168、hange in Q3 2023Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,Monthly Statistics-120%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%Jan-2020Jul-2020Jan-2021Jul-2021Jan-2022Jul-2022Jan-2023Jul-20237-daymoving average,%change vs the same period in 2019GlobalLatin AmericaSource:IATA Sustainability and Economics,DDSNort

169、h America-2.1%0.7%8.4%-2.6%8.7%15.1%-26.6%36.4%30.9%10.6%18.0%-8.2%-0.8%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%changein Q3 2023 vs Q3 2019LatinAmericaNorth AmericaSource:IATA Sustainability and Economics,DDS0050060070020002120222023Latin America(Delivered)ScheduledNorth America(D

170、elivered)ScheduledNumber of commercial aircraftSource:IATA Sustainanbility and Economics using CiriumWorld share1RPKASKPLF(%-pt)RPKASKPLF(%-pt)PLF(level)TOTAL MARKET100.0%28.4%25.8%1.7%-3.7%-3.4%-0.3%84.2%Latin America6.4%16.3%13.4%83.1%5.1%2.9%1.8%85.2%North America28.8%11.5%12.6%85.8%2.3%2.9%-0.5%

171、85.8%1%of industry RPKs in 2022%year-on-year vs Q3 2022%year-on-year vs Q3 2019Note:The total industry and regional growth rates are based on a constant sample of airlines combining reported data and estimates for missing observations.Airline traffic is allocated according to the region in which the

172、 carrier is registrated;it should not be considered as regional traffic.26 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 Asia Pacific In Q3 2023,airlines in the Asia Pacific region sustained a robust traffic recovery,with RPKs increasing by 75.6%compared to the same period last year,marking the fastest growth among g

173、lobal regions(Chart 52).While Q3 traffic was at 91.5%compared to the 2019 level the lowest among regions it demonstrated substantial improvement from Q1(74.2%)and Q2(84.9%)of 2023.Total ASKs of airlines in the region grew by 61.5%YoY in Q3 2023,reaching 92.7%of pre-pandemic levels,which is a marked

174、improvement from the 87.8%seen in the second quarter.Passenger load factors for the regions airlines also rose,with a YoY increase of 6.6 ppts,reaching 81.4%of the pre-pandemic level,reflecting the strong demand for air travel in the region.For international RPKs in the region,Q3 2023 saw notable gr

175、owth of 99.4%YoY,yet the recovery compared to 2019 levels remains behind other regions,at 76.5%(Chart 53).The relatively slower restoration of international traffic,attributed to delayed border reopening,is gaining momentum Q2 2023 traffic levels were at 68.5%,and Q1 recorded only 59.7%.This highlig

176、hts a closing gap in international traffic recovery compared to other regions.Cargo traffic for Asia Pacific airlines improved by 4.5%in Q3 2023 compared to Q3 2022,reversing negative YoY growth trends seen in Q2(-2.2%)and Q1(-11.0%)(Chart 54).However,when measured against pre-pandemic levels,Q3 car

177、go traffic displayed negative growth of 4.7%,reflecting weak demand attributed to economic slowdowns in key markets.In the Asia-Pacific region,the recovery in O-D passenger traffic showed progress,particularly in PR China,where Q3 2023 traffic rose 1.2%above 2019 levels.Domestic demand,fueled by inc

178、reased tourism,primarily drove this growth.Some countries experienced flat or declining recoveries.Indias O-D passenger recovery dipped below 2019 levels,from 6.1%above in Q2,and Japan saw a weaker outturn due to significant typhoons impacting air service operations in August.Overall,Q3 2023 continu

179、ed the trend of ticket sales aligning with the global average,signaling consistent strong demand since the lifting of most border restrictions(Chart 56).Although new aircraft deliveries have increased since the height of the Covid pandemic in 2020,they remain relatively low in 2023 because demand an

180、d traffic in the region has yet to recover to 2019 levels(Chart 57).Deliveries are expected to pick up when the region recovers to and above pre-pandemic levels.27 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 Chart 52:Growth in RPKs by airline region of registration,Asia Pacific Chart 53:Growth in international RPKs

181、 by airline region of registration,Asia Pacific Chart 54:Growth in CTKs by airline region of registration,Asia Pacific Chart 55:Ticket sales by region(7-day moving average),Asia Pacific Chart 56:Passenger traffic(O-D)growth by country in Q3 2023,Asia Pacific Chart 57:Aircraft deliveries in 2015-2023

182、(scheduled),Asia Pacific 25.1%75.6%12.7%16.3%25.6%11.5%28.4%-6.9%-8.5%-5.0%5.1%-0.6%2.3%-3.7%-50%0%50%100%AfricaAsia PacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddleEastNorthAmericaIndustryvs Q3 2022vs Q3 2019%change in Q3 2023Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,Monthly Statistics27.0%99.4%14.7%26.1%26.2%18.4%3

183、0.8%-9.4%-23.5%-7.8%-0.1%-0.8%2.6%-9.7%-50%0%50%100%150%AfricaAsia PacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddle EastNorthAmericaIndustryvs Q3 2022vs Q3 2019%change in Q3 2023Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,Monthly Statistics-0.5%4.5%-1.2%2.9%1.2%-3.0%0.6%7.8%-4.7%-13.0%-2.0%1.8%8.9%-2.2%-15%-10%-5%0%5%1

184、0%15%AfricaAsia PacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddle EastNorthAmericaIndustryvs Q3 2022vs Q3 2019%change in Q3 2023Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,Monthly Statistics-120%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%Jan-2020Jul-2020Jan-2021Jul-2021Jan-2022Jul-2022Jan-2023Jul-20237-daymoving average,%change vs th

185、e same period in 2019GlobalAsia PacificSource:IATA Sustainability and Economics,DDS-1.7%1.2%-26.4%-33.9%-0.2%-20.7%-6.1%-16.9%-10.2%-6.6%-17.4%-22.2%-24.1%-0.6%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%changein Q3 2023 vs Q3 2019Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,DDS00500600700800900201520

186、00222023Asia Pacific(Delivered)ScheduledNumber of commercial aircraftSource:IATA Sustainanbility and Economics using CiriumWorld share1RPKASKPLF(%-pt)RPKASKPLF(%-pt)PLF(level)TOTAL MARKET100.0%28.4%25.8%1.7%-3.7%-3.4%-0.3%84.2%Asia Pacific22.1%75.6%61.5%6.6%-8.5%-7.3%-1.1%81.4%

187、1%of industry RPKs in 2022Note:The total industry and regional growth rates are based on a constant sample of airlines combining reported data and estimates for missing observations.Airline traffic is allocated according to the region in which the carrier is registrated;it should not be considered a

188、s regional traffic.%year-on-year vs Q3 2022%year-on-year vs Q3 2019 28 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 Europe European airlines experienced continued growth in passenger traffic throughout the third quarter.Total air passenger traffic(RPKs)increased by 12.7%compared to the same period last year.Although

189、 still not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels yet,the gap has been narrowing gradually,averaging at 5.0%below the traffic achieved in the third quarter of 2019(Chart 58).European airlines are the largest contributors to the international air passenger market,accounting for more than 40%of global

190、 international RPKs.International passenger traffic for the European carriers grew by 14.7%in Q3 compared to the previous year,short of pre-pandemic levels in 2019 by 6.0%on a monthly basis as of September,and averaging at 7.8%compared to international traffic achieved during the third quarter of 20

191、19(Chart 59).Despite maintaining positive trends,the recovery in international RPKs for the regions carriers has been slowing since May 2023,and August 2023 saw lower passenger traffic than in July.This unusual pattern,deviating from historical seasonal trends,is compounded by a broader range of cap

192、acity constraints that may further impede traffic recovery.In terms of airline capacity,ASKs of the European carriers grew by 11.7%YoY,recovering to 96.1%of the 2019 level in Q3 2023,slightly below the industry-wide recovery.The faster recovery in RPKs(vs ASKs)contributed to lifting the European pas

193、senger load factor by 0.8 ppts over the past year,leaving them just 1 ppt lower than the pre-pandemic 2019 level for the third quarter.Cargo traffic for European airlines,which declined through most of 2022 and early 2023 after a strong performance in 2021,stabilized in Q2 and Q3 2023.However,it rem

194、ains significantly lower(down 13%)compared to the same quarter in 2019.European airlines had the weakest performance among all regions in terms of recovery to 2019 levels,as was the case also in Q2 2023.In a YoY comparison,Europe only surpassed the North American airlines in CTK growth performance(C

195、hart 60).Despite the challenges of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Omicron outbreak in early 2022,ticket sales in Europe recovered rapidly in 2022,reaching pre-pandemic levels in terms of average daily ticket sales in early January this year.Ticket sales in the region maintained a positive trend thro

196、ughout Q3 2023,despite being below the global average.They surpassed the 2019 levels twice,in mid-July and from late-July to mid-August.The upward trend in European tiket sales has slowed recently,in line with the global average(Chart 61).O-D passenger recovery trends varied across the major country

197、 markets in the European region.In Q3 2023,leading tourist destinations including Greece and Portugal stood out with ticket sales more than 10%higher than their pre-pandemic levels.However,the number of O-D passengers in Finland and Germany remained significantly below their 2019 levels during the s

198、ame period(Chart 62).European airlines displayed confidence in their traffic growth by continuing to acquire new aircraft in 2023.Maintaining steady growth in deliveries since 2020,these are projected to increase by 22%(68 aircraft)this year(Chart 63).29 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 Chart 58:Growth i

199、n RPKs by airline region of registration,Europe Chart 59:Growth in international RPKs by airline region of registration,Europe Chart 60:Growth in CTKs by airline region of registration,Europe Chart 61:Ticket sales by region(7-day moving average),Europe Chart 62:Passenger traffic(O-D)growth by countr

200、y in Q3 2023,Europe Chart 63:Aircraft deliveries in 2015-2023(scheduled),Europe 25.1%75.6%12.7%16.3%25.6%11.5%28.4%-6.9%-8.5%-5.0%5.1%-0.6%2.3%-3.7%-50%0%50%100%AfricaAsiaPacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddleEastNorthAmericaIndustryvs Q3 2022vs Q3 2019%change in Q3 2023Source:IATA Sustainability and Econo

201、mics,Monthly Statistics27.0%99.4%14.7%26.1%26.2%18.4%30.8%-9.4%-23.5%-7.8%-0.1%-0.8%2.6%-9.7%-50%0%50%100%150%AfricaAsiaPacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddleEastNorthAmericaIndustryvs Q3 2022vs Q3 2019%change in Q3 2023Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,Monthly Statistics-0.5%4.5%-1.2%2.9%1.2%-3.0%0

202、.6%7.8%-4.7%-13.0%-2.0%1.8%8.9%-2.2%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%AfricaAsiaPacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddleEastNorthAmericaIndustryvs Q3 2022vs Q3 2019%change in Q3 2023Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,Monthly Statistics-120%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%Jan-2020Jul-2020Jan-2021Jul-2021Jan-2022Jul-2022Ja

203、n-2023Jul-20237-daymoving average,%change vs the same period in 2019GlobalEuropeSource:IATA Sustainability and Economics,DDS0.9%-24.6%-2.4%-16.7%17.7%-7.3%8.6%-11.8%-5.3%5.5%15.6%3.7%-13.6%-6.7%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%changein Q3 2023 vs Q3 2019Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,DDS0050

204、060020002120222023Europe(Delivered)ScheduledNumber of commercial aircraftSource:IATA Sustainanbility and Economics using CiriumWorld share1RPKASKPLF(%-pt)RPKASKPLF(%-pt)PLF(level)TOTAL MARKET100.0%28.4%25.8%1.7%-3.7%-3.4%-0.3%84.2%Europe30.8%12.7%11.7%0.8%-5.0%-3.9%-1.0%87.2%1%

205、of industry RPKs in 2022%year-on-year vs Q3 2022%year-on-year vs Q3 2019Note:The total industry and regional growth rates are based on a constant sample of airlines combining reported data and estimates for missing observations.Airline traffic is allocated according to the region in which the carrie

206、r is registrated;it should not be considered as regional traffic.30 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 Middle East Middle East carriers continued their strong performance with a 25.6%YoY improvement in RPKs in the third quarter of 2023.The regions airlines are now just 0.6%short of their Q3 2019 levels com

207、pared to a deficit of 3.7%for the industry,indicating a faster recovery for the region compared to the global average(Chart 64).Given the regions relatively small domestic market,international RPKs for Middle East carriers showed a similar performance to the total with Q3 YoY growth at 26.2%and Q3 2

208、023 growth at-0.8%over 2019 levels(Chart 65).Ticket sales for the region continued to outperform the global average,indicating sustained passenger demand(Chart 67).The summer has been exceptionally strong for Middle East carriers as many airlines opened new routes and added capacity to existing rout

209、es.The Middle East O-D passenger traffic recovery continued to be robust in the third quarter of 2023.There was some variation in recovery rates by country,but the UAE continued to lead the way with passenger traffic 18.8%higher in Q3 2023 than it was inQ3 2019.Saudi Arabia and Jordan followed close

210、ly,up 10.6%and 12.3%,respectively.The heightened travel demand during the summer was fueled by strong wages and economic conditions,especially in Gulf countries with a significant expatriate population(Chart 68).Middle East carriers grew capacity by a robust 21.9%YoY in Q3 2023.YoY ASK growth in the

211、 Middle East was slightly lower than the industry rate of 25.8%for Q3 2023.RPK growth outpaced that of ASKs,increasing by 25.6%YoY in Q3 2023.Again,this was below the industry growth rate of 28.4%YoY.As a result of the stronger RPK(versus ASK)growth,the passenger load factor for the region increased

212、 by 2.4 ppts compared to the same period last year.The PLF improvement was a little less than the global industry improvement of 2.8%YoY.Cargo activity for Middle East airlines improved in the third quarter of 2023 by 1.2%compared to the same period last year,and by 1.8%compared to the same period i

213、n 2019.This marked a turnaround from the previous quarters 3.1%YoY decline.Globally,cargo activity for Q3 2023 was 0.6%higher than the same period last year but down 2.2%compared to 2019.Middle East carriers recorded stronger cargo activity in the third quarter compared to the global total(Chart 70)

214、,primarily driven by strong economic activity and increased government spending especially in the Gulf countries(Chart 66).Aircraft deliveries in the Middle East have maintained an upward trend since the lows of 2020.In total,95 new aircraft will be delivered by the end of 2023,representing a 73%inc

215、rease compared to 2022 and surpassing the 85 deliveries in 2019.The region has also seen a shift in deliveries from predominantly widebody jets in 2019 to narrowbodies since 2020.The scheduled deliveries for 2023 indicate an increase in the number of both types of jet aircraft,although narrowbodies

216、still account for the majority(Chart 69).31 Quarterly Chartbook Q3 2023 Chart 64:Growth in RPKs by airline region of registration,Middle East Chart 65:Growth in international RPKs by airline region of registration,Middle East Chart 66:Growth in CTKs by airline region of registration,Middle East Char

217、t 67:Ticket sales by region(7-day moving average),Middle East Chart 68:Passenger traffic(O-D)growth by country in Q3 2023,Middle East Chart 69:Aircraft deliveries in 2015-2023(scheduled),Middle East 25.1%75.6%12.7%16.3%25.6%11.5%28.4%-6.9%-8.5%-5.0%5.1%-0.6%2.3%-3.7%-50%0%50%100%AfricaAsia PacificEu

218、ropeLatinAmericaMiddleEastNorthAmericaIndustryvs Q3 2022vs Q3 2019%change in Q3 2023Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,Monthly Statistics27.0%99.4%14.7%26.1%26.2%18.4%30.8%-9.4%-23.5%-7.8%-0.1%-0.8%2.6%-9.7%-50%0%50%100%150%AfricaAsia PacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddle EastNorthAmericaIndustryvs

219、Q3 2022vs Q3 2019%change in Q3 2023Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,Monthly Statistics-0.5%4.5%-1.2%2.9%1.2%-3.0%0.6%7.8%-4.7%-13.0%-2.0%1.8%8.9%-2.2%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%AfricaAsia PacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddle EastNorthAmericaIndustryvs Q3 2022vs Q3 2019%change in Q3 Source:IATA Sustaina

220、bility and Economics,Monthly Statistics-120%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%Jan-2020Jul-2020Jan-2021Jul-2021Jan-2022Jul-2022Jan-2023Jul-20237-daymoving average,%change vs the same period in 2019GlobalMiddle EastSource:IATA Sustainability and Economics,DDS-40.0%12.3%4.4%-1.9%10.6%18.8%-50%-40%

221、-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%changein Q3 2023 vs Q3 2019Source:IATA Sustainability and Economics,DDS050020002120222023Middle East(Delivered)ScheduledNumber of commercial aircraftSource:IATA Sustainanbility and Economics using CiriumWorld share1RPKASKPLF(%-pt)RPKASKPLF(%-pt

222、)PLF(level)TOTAL MARKET100.0%28.4%25.8%2.8%-3.7%-3.4%-0.3%84.2%Middle East9.8%25.6%21.9%2.4%-0.6%-4.4%3.2%82.7%1%of industry RPKs in 2022%year-on-year vs Q3 2022%year-on-year vs Q3 2019Note:The total industry and regional growth rates are based on a constant sample of airlines combining reported data and estimates for missing observations.Airline traffic is allocated according to the region in which the carrier is registrated;it should not be considered as regional traffic.Iata.org/economics economicsiata.org