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1、 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook IATA Sustainability&Economics Q1 2023 2 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 Table of Contents Glossary.3 Table of Charts.4 I.The Business Cycle.6 II.Sustainability and Energy Transition.9 Sustainable Aviation Fuel(SAF).9 III.Passenger and Cargo Traffic.11 Passenger Traffic
2、.11 Cargo Traffic.17 IV.Regional Outlook.22 Africa and the Middle East.22 Americas.25 Asia Pacific.27 Europe.29 V.Appendix.31 Note to readers:The Airline Financial Performance section will only be included in the Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook for Q2 and Q4 of each year.It will be excluded from t
3、he Q1 and Q3 reports as the latest airline financial performance review and forecast will be published in the concurrent releases of the June and December Global Outlook reports,respectively.3 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 Glossary ACTKs Available Cargo Tonne-Kilometers ASKs Available Seat-Kilometers
4、ASPAC Asia Pacific ATKs Available Tonne-Kilometers BLF Breakeven Load Factor CLF Cargo Load Factor CTKs Cargo Tonne-Kilometers FRT Freight Tonnes GDP Gross Domestic Product LF Load Factor MoM Month-on-month OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Passenger Traffic O-D Passenger Traffi
5、c Origin-Destination PAX Revenue Passengers PLF Passenger Load Factor RPKs Revenue Passenger-Kilometers RTKs Revenue Tonne-Kilometers SA Seasonally adjusted SAF Sustainable Aviation Fuel USD United States Dollar WLF Weight Load Factor YoY Year-on-year 4 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 Table of Charts Ch
6、art 1:Global gross domestic product(constant USD),annual%change.7 Chart 2:Volume of world merchandise trade,annual%change.7 Chart 3:Unemployment rate in OECD,%share of labor force.7 Chart 4:Global inflation as Consumer Price Index(CPI),annual%change.7 Chart 5:Global debt as share of GDP(%).7 Chart 6
7、:Foreign Exchange Rates.7 Chart 7:Manufacturing output Purchasing Managers Index(PMI).8 Chart 8:Business Survey Results:How does your profitability performance in the last 3 and the next 12 months compare with the same period last year?.8 Chart 9:Total number of SAF offtake agreements.10 Chart 10:To
8、tal number of SAF offtake agreements per pathway(as of March 2023).10 Chart 11:Cumulative renewable fuel capacity vs.target SAF fraction(Mt).10 Chart 12:Total renewable fuel capacity,%share by pathway.10 Chart 13:Industry monthly RPKs in billions.12 Chart 14:Global RPKs from Jan 2020 to Mar 2023,YoY
9、%change vs 2019.12 Chart 15:International RPKs,YoY%change versus 2019 Top 10 route areas in 2019.12 Chart 16:International RPKs by airline region of registration,%share of Q1 2019.12 Chart 17:International RPKs by cabin class,%share of the same month in 2019.12 Chart 18:Domestic RPKs by country mark
10、et,%share of the same month in 2019.12 Chart 19:Industry monthly ASKs in billions.13 Chart 20:Passenger Load Factor(%share of available seat kms,Q1).13 Chart 21:Passenger Traffic(O-D)and%share of 2019.14 Chart 22:Passenger ticket sales,7-day moving average,%share of the same day in 2019.14 Chart 23:
11、Ticket sales in Q1,2019-2023 for forward travel(%share of total).14 Chart 24:Global passengers in billions.14 Chart 25:Passenger traffic forecast and estimated year of recovery to 2019 levels.14 Chart 26:IATA Global Air Connectivity Index,Jan 2020-Mar 2023.15 Chart 27:Global Airport Pairs,Monthly Ja
12、n 2020-Mar 2023.15 Chart 28:Recovery in international connectivity by region through Mar 2023.16 Chart 29:Industry monthly CTKs in billions.17 Chart 30:Global and regional CTKs,%change vs 2019.17 Chart 31:Share of annual CTKs by region.18 Chart 32:Industry monthly ACTKs in billions.18 Chart 33:Growt
13、h of international ACTKs by type.18 Chart 34:International CTKs(millions)by type.18 Chart 35:Seasonally adjusted monthly international CTKs.20 Chart 36:International CTK growth by airline region of registration,.20 Chart 37:Cargo load factors in major route areas,%share of ACTK.20 Chart 38:Global ma
14、nufacturing new export orders and industry CTK growth.20 Chart 39:Country-specific PMI new export orders.20 Chart 40:Global trade,industrial production and CTKs.20 Chart 41:Growth in industry-wide CTKs and global merchandise trade.21 Chart 42:Growth in industry-wide CTKs and global trade.21 Chart 43
15、:Business Survey Results:How did cargo operations in the last three months compare with the same period last year and how do you expect them to change over the next 12 months?.21 5 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 Chart 44:Business Survey Results:How did your cargo operations in the last three months com
16、pare with the same period last year and how do you expect them to change over the next 12 months?(Jan 2010-23)21 Chart 45:Growth in RPKs by region(Africa-Middle East).23 Chart 46:Growth in international RPKs by region(Africa-Middle East).23 Chart 47:Growth in CTKs by region(Africa-Middle East).23 Ch
17、art 48:Ticket sales by region(7-day moving average),Africa-Middle East.23 Chart 49:Passenger traffic(O-D)growth by country in Q1 2023(Africa-Middle East).24 Chart 50:Aircraft deliveries in 2015-2023(scheduled),Africa-Middle East.24 Chart 51:Growth in RPKs by region(Americas).26 Chart 52:Growth in in
18、ternational RPKs by region(Americas).26 Chart 53:Growth in CTKs by region(Americas).26 Chart 54:Ticket sales by region(7-day moving average),Americas.26 Chart 55:Passenger traffic(O-D)growth by country in Q1 2023,Americas.26 Chart 56:Aircraft deliveries in 2015-2023(scheduled),Americas.26 Chart 57:G
19、rowth in RPKs by region(Asia Pacific).28 Chart 58:Growth in international RPKs by region(Asia Pacific).28 Chart 59:Growth in CTKs by region(Asia Pacific).28 Chart 60:Ticket sales by region(7-day moving average),Asia Pacific.28 Chart 61:Passenger traffic(O-D)growth by country in Q1 2023,Asia Pacific.
20、28 Chart 62:Aircraft deliveries in 2015-2023(scheduled),Asia Pacific.28 Chart 63:Growth in RPKs by region(Europe).30 Chart 64:Growth in international RPKs by region(Europe).30 Chart 65:Growth in CTKs by region(Europe).30 Chart 66:Ticket sales by region(7-day moving average),Europe.30 Chart 67:Passen
21、ger traffic(O-D)growth by country in Q1 2023,Europe.30 Chart 68:Aircraft deliveries in 2015-2023(scheduled),Europe.30 6 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 I.The Business Cycle The global economy is likely to grow in the vicinity of 3%in 2023,down from 3.4%in 2022,and 6.3%in 2021.Despite the recent slowdown
22、,this growth rate aligns with the historical average since the 1970s.According to WTO,growth in world merchandise trade is expected to decelerate to 1.7%this year,from 2.7%in 2022.Trade volumes nevertheless set a new record in 2022,following the contraction seen in 2020 and are now exceeding 2019 le
23、vels(Chart 1,Chart 2).The current business cycle is characterized by tight labor markets globally,especially in advanced economies.In April 2023,the US unemployment rate stood at 3.4%,which is historically low compared to the average rate of 5.7%from 1948 to 2023.It reached an all-time low in May 19
24、53 at 2.5%.Hence,it remains remarkably low amid a slowing business cycle when it would otherwise have been expected to climb.In the OECD countries,the average unemployment rate was 4.8%in March 2023,the third month at this record low since 2001(Chart 3).In the European Union,the unemployment rate wa
25、s 6.0%in March 2023,also a historic low,and that of the euro area fell to 6.5%in the same month.While we would expect unemployment rates to rise again in the latter part of this year,it is difficult to anticipate a recession at the current junction given that record numbers of workers are earning a
26、regular income.Inflation has risen dramatically since 2021,particularly due to Russias invasion of Ukraine in 2022,interrupting the general disinflation trend that had been in place since the 1980s.Global inflation rose to 8.7%in 2022 and is likely to pull back to 7%in 2023(Chart 4).Despite some sig
27、nificant monetary policy tightening,inflation remains somewhat stubborn,impacting the real interest rates and affecting debt holders.At its latest meeting in May,the US Federal Reserve lifted its policy rate to 5.0-5.25%,the 10th hike in just over a year,but hinted at a less aggressive stance going
28、forward Consumer price inflation stood at 5.5%year-on-year in April,meaning that the real rate of interest is still just negative,as it mostly has been since the Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009.Nevertheless,the price of money is going up(although it is still low),and this will impact all debt hold
29、ers.The rise in interest rates has also impacted all significant bond holders(the price of which falls when interest rates rise)and this played a part in the recent bank failures in the US.While any major contagion looks unlikely,the events still reveal vulnerabilities in the financial sector and wi
30、ll curtail growth in credit.According to Institute of International Finance(IIF)Global Debt Monitor,global debt levels remained high at 338%of GDP in 2022,albeit down by 12 percentage points from 2021.Most of the declines came from advanced economies,while the debt-to-GDP ratio for emerging markets
31、rose by 2 percentage points(Chart 5).Over the past few years,the number of vulnerable economies has risen.Among the 73 countries included in the Debt Service Suspension Initiative(DSSI),nearly 60%of them were either at high risk of or already in debt stress in 2022,which is double the number compare
32、d to 2015.1 As the cost of servicing this debt has risen,governments worldwide will have limited space for fiscal stimulus and may resort to raising taxes.Climate change and the transition to a sustainable economy is already taxing growth and lifting the need for both public and private investments.
33、Achieving this amidst diminishing multilateral collaboration and the return of war to Europe presents additional challenges.The recent depreciation of the US dollar provides some near-term relief,as it lowers the price of all goods and debt denominated in US dollars and tends to be growth-supporting
34、 in all regions except for Europe.1 For eligible countries,Debt Service Suspension Initiative(DSSI)allows bilateral official creditors to grant suspension of debt service payments as requested.This was initiated and agreed upon by G20 leaders during the pandemic to address immediate liquidity needs
35、from the poorest countries.7 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 Measured by an index against its main trading partners,it has come off the local high set in October 2022 of 113 to 102 in mid-May 2023.However,on this basis,it remains nearly 14%stronger than it was in September 2020(Chart 6).Taken together,w
36、e understand that the world is facing high levels of uncertainty on multiple fronts,skewing the risks to the overall outlook decidedly to the downside.Upside surprises could come in the form of Chinas economy rebounding more strongly than expected,and if the war in Ukraine were to end.Despite these
37、dynamics,it is crucial for the industry to remain vigilant and adaptive to navigate the uncertain global landscape effectively(Chart 7,Chart 8).Chart 1:Global gross domestic product(constant USD),annual%change Chart 2:Volume of world merchandise trade,annual%change Chart 3:Unemployment rate in OECD,
38、%share of labor force Chart 4:Global inflation as Consumer Price Index(CPI),annual%change Chart 5:Global debt as share of GDP(%)Chart 6:Foreign Exchange Rates -4-2024682000200520025annual%changeSource:International Monetary Fund(IMF),April 2023 update2.31.44.93.20.4-5.19.42.71.73.2-8-5-21
39、4762002020212022 2023P 2024Pannual%changeSource:World Trade OrganizationMar/23,4.800072009200023Source:OECD Stat%share of labor force8.77.00annual%changeSource:IMF,World Economic Outlook April 202300500Q4 2021Q4
40、2022Q4 2021Q4 2022Q4 2021Q4 2022Mature marketsEmerging marketsGlobalHouseholdsNon-financial corporatesGovernmentFinancial Sector%share of GDPSource:Institute of International Finance(IIF)90955Real effective exchange rate indexUSDEuroSource:Bank for International Settlements(BIS)8 Quarterl
41、y Chartbook Q1 2023 Chart 7:Manufacturing output Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Chart 8:Business Survey Results:How does your profitability performance in the last 3 and the next 12 months compare with the same period last year?007080Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Ju
42、l-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23China(mainland)WorldUSSouth KoreaItalyGermany(50=no change)Source:Markit21%11%68%7%11%82%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Deterioration/DecreaseNo-changeImprovement/Increase%share of RespondentsLast three monthsNext twelve monthsSource:
43、IATA Business Confidence Survey(January 2023)9 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 II.Sustainability and Energy Transition As the world aims to achieve ambitious climate targets,Sustainable Aviation Fuel(SAF)has emerged as a key feature within the aviation industry.SAF represents a broad category of fuels d
44、erived from non-fossil sources,including advanced biofuels and e-fuels,offering a sustainable alternative to conventional jet fuel.IATA estimates that SAF could contribute approximately 65%of the emissions abatement necessary for aviation to achieve its goal of reaching net zero CO2 emissions by 205
45、0.2 Sustainable Aviation Fuel(SAF)Since 2022,there have been 34 publicly announced SAF offtake agreements and 17 non-binding agreements,including both memorandums of understandings(MoUs)and letters of intent(Chart 9).Collectively,these agreements represent a total blended SAF volume of around 25 mil
46、lion metric tonnes.The total volume of neat SAF included in these offtake agreements is estimated to be around 8-10 million tonnes,based on the current blending ratio of 30-40%SAF and 60-70%conventional jet fuel.Among the 51 offtake agreements,there are five SAF production pathways represented in Ch
47、art 10,namely Hydro-processed Esters and Fatty Acids(HEFA),HEFA Co-Processing,Syngas Fischer-Tropsch(Syngas-FT),Alcohol to Jet(AtJ),and Power-to-Liquid(PtL).44 agreements are based on Biofuel SAFs,while the remaining seven are associated with E-Fuel SAF,derived from various PtL projects.As the most
48、mature biofuel technology for SAF production,the HEFA pathway has consistently been the most common for offtake agreements,followed by Syngas-FT(Chart 10).However,in terms of the estimated volume,SAF produced via the AtJ pathway accounts for around half of the total estimated neat SAF offtake volume
49、,resulting in an amount greater than the combined volume of HEFA and Syngas-FT SAF(Chart 10).This higher AtJ SAF offtake volume is due to two larger offtake agreements.Based on IATAs data sources,over 130 renewable fuel projects have been announced publicly by more than 85 producers across 30 countr
50、ies.Each of these projects has identified commitments to producing SAF in their product slate.Currently,these projects represent an estimated overall renewable fuel capacity of 55 million tonnes by 2029(Chart 11).It is important to note that there is typically a 3 to 6-year lag between project annou
51、ncement and commercialisation and that further capacity announcements for 2026 and beyond can be expected.The total renewable fuel capacity will produce SAF as well as other outputs,such as renewable diesel.With that in mind,and assuming an average SAF share of around 30%,it would require 80 million
52、 tonnes of global renewable fuel capacity by 2030 to achieve the 24 million tonne SAF output,which is a potential interim target(Chart 11).According to current data,85%of global capacity is attributed to the HEFA pathway,followed by 6%of AtJ and 5%of Syngas-FT(Chart 12).The Catalytic Hydrothermolysi
53、s Jet fuel(CHJ)pathway represents just 1%of the total capacity,while e-fuel SAF,through the PtL process,accounts for less than 1%of the cumulative renewable capacity all of which showing how very early we are in the transition towards net zero.2 Read more on our SAF policy approach:https:/www.iata.o
54、rg/contentassets/d13875e9ed784f75bac90f000760e998/saf-policy-2023.pdf 10 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 Chart 9:Total number of SAF offtake agreements Chart 10:Total number of SAF offtake agreements per pathway(as of March 2023)Chart 11:Cumulative renewable fuel capacity vs.target SAF fraction(Mt)Chart
55、 12:Total renewable fuel capacity,%share by pathway 44230600246810Monthly agreementsNumber of monthly agreementsCumulative number of agreementsSource:IATA5246970510152025HEFA Co-processingHEFAAtJSyngas-FTPtLSource:IATA55558024Mt0020222023202420252026202720
56、2820292030Total Cumulative Capacity(Mt)Target SAF Fraction(30%)Source:IATAAtJ,6%CHJ,0.2%HEFA,86%PtL,0.3%Syngas FT,5%Co-process,2%Source:IATA 11 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 III.Passenger and Cargo Traffic Passenger Traffic Despite economic headwinds affecting consumer purchasing power and airline ope
57、rating costs,the recovery in air travel demand has remained resilient this quarter.In March 2023,global air passenger traffic,measured in revenue passenger-kilometers(RPKs),was only 12.0%below pre-pandemic levels(Chart 13,Chart 14).Industry-wide RPKs in the first quarter of 2023 rebounded to 85.9%of
58、 Q1 2019 levels,showing a significant improvement from the 68.5%RPK recovery achieved for the full year in 2022.The recovery trend in international RPKs observed in 2022 has continued globally in the beginning of this year.Global international RPKs were 18.4%below 2019 levels in March,and for the qu
59、arter,they were 21.1%short of that level.International passenger traffic routes between Europe and the Americas continued to lead in terms of recovery to pre-covid levels,with Europe-North America surpassing pre-pandemic levels by 4.5%and Europe-Central America only 2.0%below in March(Chart 15).Rout
60、es between Asia Pacific and the rest of the world have experienced significant growth in international traffic,with RPKs within Asia growing by a staggering 703.8%compared to Q1 2022,and AsiaNorth America by 251.3%(Chart 15).Asia Pacific carriers,operating the largest share of traffic originating fr
61、om the region,have seen substantial growth in international RPKs,with a 339.2%increase compared to the previous year,reflecting the strong pent-up demand resulting from the broad lifting of remaining travel restrictions,as well as the low level from which traffic has risen(Chart 16).While the long-t
62、erm impact of the pandemic on consumer preferences remains uncertain,industry-wide international premium RPKs have been recovering ahead of the economy since the second half of 2022.This positive development continued in Q1 2023,with premium international RPKs reaching 85.0%of Q1 2019 levels,while e
63、conomy class RPKs reached 78.4%(Chart 17).Domestic RPKs have continued to recover more rapidly than international RPKs and have accelerated due to the resumption of air travel in Chinas domestic market.In the first quarter,the share of recovered total domestic RPKs increased by 23.2 percentage point
64、s(ppts)compared to the previous year,reaching 98.0%of Q1 2019 levels.Chinas domestic RPKs reached 91.6%of 2019 levels.Other domestic markets,including the US and India,have also shown sustained positive results,exceeding the 2019 threshold by 4.9%and 1.2%,respectively,in the first quarter(Chart 18).
65、Available seat capacity,measured in available seat-kilometers(ASKs),continued to ramp up in line with demand for air traffic,rising to 89.5%of 2019 levels in March and 79.8%over the quarter(Chart 19).Passenger load factors,which indicate the level of demand expressed by consumers relative to capacit
66、y,were close to the 2019 levels for all regions.Africa and Middle East carriers outperformed their pre-pandemic load factors by 3.3 and 5.8 ppt,reaching 74.5%and 79.4%respectively.These figures demonstrate the strong demand for air travel worldwide(Chart 20).It is important to bear in mind though,th
67、at while we are well pleased to see the industry closing in on and even exceeding the 2019 levels of activity,it remains well below where it likely would have been if the Covid crisis had not happened.12 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 Chart 13:Industry monthly RPKs in billions Chart 14:Global RPKs from
68、 Jan 2020 to Mar 2023,YoY%change vs 2019 Chart 15:International RPKs,YoY%change versus 2019 Top 10 route areas in 2019 Chart 16:International RPKs by airline region of registration,%share of Q1 2019 Chart 17:International RPKs by cabin class,%share of the same month in 2019 Chart 18:Domestic RPKs by
69、 country market,%share of the same month in 2019 02004006008001,00020020202120222023ActualSeasonally adjustedSource:IATA Monthly Statistics-12.0%-1.1%-18.4%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-2
70、2Jan-23Mar-23Industry RPKsDomestic RPKsInternational RPKsMarch 2023 vs March 2019Source:IATA Monthly Statistics-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%Africa-EuropeEurope-Central America/CaribbeanEurope-AsiaEurope-Middle EastEurope-North AmericaAsia-North AmericaWithin EuropeWithin AsiaSource:IATA Monthly Statistics
71、95.0%91.6%89.1%84.8%83.6%59.7%78.9%92.0%85.0%81.3%82.9%83.8%48.9%73.6%N.AmericaMiddle EastAfricaEuropeL.CaribbeanAsia PacificIndustryQ4 2022Q1 2023Source:IATA Monthly Statistics0%20%40%60%80%100%Jan-20Jun-20Nov-20Apr-21Sep-21Feb-22Jul-22Dec-22Source:IATA Monthly StatisticsShare of intl RPKs by class
72、(identical in 2019,2021 and 2022)Economy:92%Premium:8%EconomyPremium0%20%40%60%80%100%120%Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23China PRJapanUSAustraliaIndiaBrazilSource:IATA Monthly Statistics 13 Quarterly Chartbook Q
73、1 2023 Chart 19:Industry monthly ASKs in billions Chart 20:Passenger Load Factor(%share of available seat kms,Q1)Over the course of 2022,global passenger numbers gained ground towards full recovery(Chart 21).The reopening of China enabled further growth in origindestination(O-D)passenger traffic in
74、January and February 2023,surpassing 90%of pre-pandemic traffic levels.Coupled with the Lunar New Year,Chinas reopening significantly boosted domestic ticket sales,exceeding the number of ticketed passengers in February and March 2019.International ticket sales also made modest progress in their rec
75、overy,but remained above 80%of 2019 levels,which is a positive development considering the headwinds of global inflation and high fuel prices.Both domestic and international ticket sales continued to indicate an optimistic outlook and a sustained recovery,with ticket sales growing across all regions
76、 compared to the previous year(Chart 22,Chart 23).Looking ahead,air passenger traffic(O-D)is still expected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.2%through 2040,resulting in a doubling of air travel demand by the end of the forecast horizon.In the near-term,our outlook is buoyed by the latest devel
77、opments in China and the Asia Pacific region,but remains largely unchanged,with worldwide passenger traffic expected to fully recover to 2019 levels by 2024(Chart 24,Chart 25).Crosscurrents including high energy and consumer prices,increasing airline input costs,and capacity constraints,as well as a
78、 slowing global economy continue to drag our balance of risks to the downside.Our expectation for North Americas passenger traffic continues to be full recovery this year.Based on the positive developments observed in specific regions,Asia Pacific is now anticipated to reach its pre-pandemic traffic
79、 levels by 2024,primarily due to the earlier-than-anticipated reopening of China.Latin America&the Caribbean are now expected to fully recover this year,given the sustained strong results in domestic and international travel to and from the region.Africa is projected to return to pre-Covid passenger
80、 levels in 2024,supported by the regions strong year-to-date performance.2005206207208209201,02020020202120222023ActualSeasonally adjustedbillionsSources:IATA Monthly Statistics81.8%82.1%73.6%82.0%81.9%71.2%80.8%79.7%74.4%65.6%60.9%68.1%64.7%68.6%81.3%80.2%79.4%78.8%77.4%74.5%7
81、8.9%LatinAmericaNorthAmericaMiddle EastAsia PacificEuropeAfricaIndustry202320222019Sources:IATA Monthly Statistics 14 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 Chart 21:Passenger Traffic(O-D)and%share of 2019 Chart 22:Passenger ticket sales,7-day moving average,%share of the same day in 2019 Chart 23:Ticket sales
82、 in Q1,2019-2023 for forward travel(%share of total)Chart 24:Global passengers in billions Chart 25:Passenger traffic forecast and estimated year of recovery to 2019 levels Estimated year of recovery to 2019 passenger traffic levels Africa Asia Pacific Europe Latin America&Caribbean Middle East Nort
83、h America World 2024 2024 2024 2023 2024 2023 2024 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0500300MillionsPassengers,LHS%share,RHSSources:IATA Economics,DDS0%20%40%60%80%100%120%Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-
84、23DomesticInternationalSource:IATA Economics,DDS ticketing data90.0%88.7%94.2%91.1%90.1%10.0%11.3%5.8%8.9%9.9%200222023Travel in 4 months or lessTravel beyond 4 monthsSource:IATA Economics,DDS ticketing data000024Range of uncertaintyNew baseline forecastPr
85、e-COVID19 baseline forecast2019 level recovered by 2024Source:IATA/Tourism Economics020406080100120140AfricaAsia PacificEuropeLatin America&CaribbeanMiddle EastNorth AmericaWorldIndex 2019 level=2022202320242025Source:IATA/Tourism Economics 15 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 Global Air Connec
86、tivity Air transport is vital for the modern economy.It provides the city-pair connections that serve as virtual bridges supporting the flows of goods and people between markets.As the only rapid global transportation network,air transport facilitates links between businesses,governments,and people
87、enabling world trade,investment,tourism and travel,among other key economic activities.Increased connectivity drives improved economic outcomes for countries and communities.By March 2023,IATAs Global Air Connectivity Index which measures connectivity as scheduled passenger capacity weighed by the r
88、elative economic scale of destinations served,had recovered to 79.4%of pre-pandemic levels for international connectivity and 95.8%for domestic connectivity(Chart 26).International air connectivity has recovered more rapidly than domestic over the past year,growing by 27ppts compared with 10 ppts fo
89、r the latter.This increase primarily reflects the relatively low level of international connectivity in early 2022 and the surge of international travel demand driven by the reopening of international travel markets,which gained momentum through the year.See Table A in the Appendix for the rankings
90、of the top-100 countries based on the 2022 international connectivity index.The number of domestic airport pairs served has returned to pre-pandemic levels and has exceeded the 2019 levels by 4.5%.Similarly,international airport pairs are being restored and are at 90%of pre-Covid levels(Chart 27).Ho
91、wever,the recovery in international flight frequency,which is particularly important for business travelers,is still behind at 89.6%of pre-pandemic levels.The recovery in connectivity is broad-based across regions,with Africa the strongest performer currently;international air connectivity in Africa
92、 has exceeded its 2019 level,reaching 104%in March 2023.Latin America&the Caribbean and the Middle East regions are approaching pre-Covid levels at 97%and 98%,respectively,while for both Europe and North America,international connectivity is currently at 87%of the 2019 level.Asia Pacific continues t
93、o lag the recovery in the other regions,at a modest 62%of 2019 levels in March(Chart 28).However,it is worth noting that Asia Pacific has seen a strong increase of 40 ppts in international air connectivity over the past year.With China and other important regional markets only relatively recently re
94、opening borders and lifting travel restrictions,we anticipate a sizeable improvement again this year,closing the gap further with the performance of other regions.Chart 26:IATA Global Air Connectivity Index,Jan 2020-Mar 2023 Chart 27:Global Airport Pairs,Monthly Jan 2020-Mar 2023 Domestic95.8Interna
95、tional79.4020406080100Dec-19Feb-20Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Oct-20Dec-20Feb-21Apr-21Jun-21Aug-21Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23Index 2019 level=100Source:IATA Connectivity Index using data from OAGDomestic104.5International89.6020406080100120Dec-19Feb-20Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Oct-20Dec-20F
96、eb-21Apr-21Jun-21Aug-21Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23Index 2019 level=100Source:IATA Connectivity Index using data from OAG 16 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 Chart 28:Recovery in international connectivity by region through Mar 2023 0255075100Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20
97、Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23Index 2019 level=100North AmericaAsia PacificEuropeMiddle EastLatin America&CaribbeanAfricaSource:IATA Connectivity Index using data from OAG 17 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 Cargo Traffic Growth in world merchandise e
98、xports is expected to slow marginally this year,to 2.2%this year,from 2.3%in 2022.This indicates that the air cargo industry may continue to be challenged by soft demand in 2023.From November 2022 through the first two months of 2023,global goods trade has been experiencing year-on-year contractions
99、.Consequently,the demand for air cargo in Q1 2023,measured by cargo tonne-kilometers(CTKs),remained below the levels seen in the same period in 2022.Inflation is a significant factor behind the softening global trade and air cargo demand.Although headline inflation peaked at 8.7%in 2022 and is likel
100、y to pull back to 7%in 2023,the overall price level will continue to rise this year,albeit at a slower pace.The increasing price of inputs finished products,and services will continue to limit purchasing power,dampen consumption,and ultimately impact the air cargo business.Amidst these economic chal
101、lenges,the air cargo industry remained relatively weak and experienced seasonal fluctuations during the first quarter of 2023(Chart 29).Industry CTK levels picked back up above the 2019 level from the low point in January,before dropping again below the March 2019 level at the end of Q1.North Americ
102、a and Africa remained the only two regions with CTKs above 2019 levels,while Asia Pacific exceeded the pre-Covid level in February before seeing a significant drop in March(Chart 30).The uneven growth in CTKs across regions in 2022 resulted in further changes in the distribution of total CTKs among
103、regions(Chart 31).Asia Pacific,though still the largest air cargo market,saw a reduction in its market share from 34.5%in 2019 to 32.4%in 2022.Airlines in North America,with their strong air cargo performance in 2022,increased the regions share of global CTKs from 24.3%in 2019 to 28.1%in 2022.In con
104、trast,due to the war in Ukraine,European airlines experienced an 11.5%decline in CTKs compared to 2021,leading to a decrease in the market share of European airlines from 23.6%in 2019 to 21.8%in 2022.Capacity,measured by available cargo tonne-kilometers(ACTKs),continued to rise in Q1 2023,despite th
105、e pressures of seasonal factors(Chart 33).The growth in ACTKs was primarily driven by the strong recovery of belly hold capacity in passenger aircraft that are returning to service.In contrast,the capacity of dedicated freighters has been declining since December 2021(Chart 33).International CTKs tr
106、ansported by different types of air cargo flights are returning to pre-Covid volumes(Chart 34).With the recovery in international passenger flights,the share of CTKs carried in the belly-holds of passenger aircraft increased to 36%in Q1 2023,with the remaining 64%carried by dedicated freighters.Alth
107、ough the share of CTKs carried by passenger carriers has increased significantly compared to the pandemic period,it has still not returned to the balanced proportions of 2019.Chart 29:Industry monthly CTKs in billions Chart 30:Global and regional CTKs,%change vs 2019 -50%-30%-10%10%30%IndustryAfrica
108、Asia PacificEuropeLatin AmericaMiddle EastNorth AmericaSources:IATA Monthly Statistics5Actual CTKsSeasonally-adjusted CTKsSources:IATA Monthly Statistics 18 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 Chart 31:Share of annual CTKs by region Chart 32:Industry monthly ACTKs in billions Chart 33:Growth of i
109、nternational ACTKs by type Chart 34:International CTKs(millions)by type 0%10%20%30%40%50%share of industry total CTKsAfricaAsia PacificEuropeLatin AmericaMiddle EastNorth AmericaSource:IATA Monthly Statistics20253035404550Jan-17May-17Sep-17Jan-18May-18Sep-18Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21
110、May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23Actual ACTKsSeasonally-adjusted ACTKsSources:IATA Monthly Statistics-91%296%51%8.32%-45%-30%-15%0%15%30%45%60%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%Jan/20Mar/20May/20Jul/20Sep/20Nov/20Jan/21Mar/21May/21Jul/21Sep/21Nov/21Jan/22Mar/22May/22Jul/22Sep/22Nov/22Jan/23Mar/23YoY%gr
111、owthDedicated freightersPassenger bellyInternational ACTK YoY%Sources:IATA Monthly Statistics0510152025Dedicated freightersPassenger BellyPreightersSource:IATA Monthly Statistics48%64%19%17%62%24%14%65%34%1%52%19 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 Seasonally adjusted international CTKs showed varied trends
112、 across regions in the first quarter of 2023(Chart 35).North America experienced a significant decline in international CTKs in January,which stabilized in February and March.On the other hand,airlines in Asia Pacific,Latin America,Africa,and the Middle East showed upward trends during at least the
113、first two months of Q1.Europe,however,exhibited a moderate softening trend throughout Q1 2023.Due to the challenging economic climate,international CTKs in March were below the levels seen in 2022 across all regions(Chart 36Chart 37).Asia Pacific recorded the largest year-on-year contraction by the
114、end of Q1 2023,followed by Europe and North America.The decline in international CTKs within these three major regional markets contributed to the overall softening demand in the industry.With the increased capacity coming online from belly-hold capacity of passenger flights,coupled with the weakene
115、d air cargo demand,air cargo load factors have been decreasing across regions over the past year.However,load factors showed improvement in Q1 2023 in all regions compared to the lowest levels observed in January 2023.Asia Pacific-North America and Europe-North America routes experienced a slight de
116、cline in load factors in March(Chart 37).The purchasing managers index(PMI)for export orders has historically served as a leading indicator of air cargo demand(Chart 38).It has been below the key 50 threshold since the beginning of 2022,except for February 2022,indicating less buoyant new export ord
117、ers and consequently,air cargo demand.However,the recent upward trends observed in Q1 2023 suggest a possible improvement in air cargo demand during Q2.New export orders PMIs for major economies showed a mixed picture in Q1 2023(Chart 39).Chinas PMI retreated to below the 50-mark in March,following
118、a slight improvement that brought it above this threshold in February.In contrast,other major economies such as Germany,Japan,the US,and South Korea all experienced contraction in March compared to February.However,the slight upticks in the PMIs of Germany and Japan suggest a slowdown in the pace of
119、 their deceleration.Global cross-border trade and industrial production remained above the pre-Covid level in the first quarter of 2023.However,there has been a decoupling between global CTKs and the growth of these two indicators since February 2022,with the difference widening recently.While the g
120、ap narrowed slightly in the first quarter of the year,it indicates that the maritime industry has benefited more from the recovery of global trade and industrial production compared to the air cargo industry(Chart 40,Chart 41 and Chart 42).Our Business Confidence Survey of airline Heads of Cargo sho
121、ws that the industrys outlook remains positive for the next twelve months,with 54%of respondents expecting an improvement in cargo operations,and only 17%expecting a decrease(Chart 43).The weighted score of business confidence for the next twelve months is 68.8,higher than for the next three months,
122、which stands at 54.3(Chart 44).20 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 Chart 35:Seasonally adjusted monthly international CTKs Indexed,Jan 2020 level=100 Chart 36:International CTK growth by airline region of registration,%change YoY Chart 37:Cargo load factors in major route areas,%share of ACTK Chart 38:Gl
123、obal manufacturing new export orders and industry CTK growth Chart 39:Country-specific PMI new export orders Chart 40:Global trade,industrial production and CTKs 5075100125150Jan/20Mar/20May/20Jul/20Sep/20Nov/20Jan/21Mar/21May/21Jul/21Sep/21Nov/21Jan/22Mar/22May/22Jul/22Sep/22Nov/22Jan/23Mar/23Afric
124、aNorth AmericaMiddle EastAsia PacificLatin AmericaEurope-8.4%-5.4%-9.4%-8.1%-6.2%-5.0%-8.1%-16.6%-7.1%-6.8%-10.5%-7.4%-2.3%-10.1%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%EuropeMiddle EastAsia PacificNorth AmericaAfricaLatin AmericaIndustryMar-2022Mar-2023Sources:IATA Monthly Statistics30%40%50%60%70%80%90%Asia Pacific-Euro
125、peEurope-Middle EastEurope-North AmericaAsia Pacific-North AmericaAsia Pacific-Middle EastNorth America-Latin AmericaSources:IATA Monthly Statistics303540455055606570-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%20082009200000222023Growth in industry CTKs(LHS)Global PMI new expo
126、rt orderscomponent(RHS)Sources:IATA S&E Economics,IATA Monthly Statistics,MarkitManufacturing New export orders PMI(50=no change)070Germany PMIJapan PMIChina PMIUS PMIKorea PMIGlobal PMISources:Markit50=No Change 707580859095100105110Indexed January 2019 level=100Source:IATA Economics,Net
127、herlands CPBGlobal industrialproductionCross-bordertradeGlobal CTKs(Seasonally-adjusted)Sources:IATA Monthly Statistics 21 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 Chart 41:Growth in industry-wide CTKs and global merchandise trade Chart 42:Growth in industry-wide CTKs and global trade Chart 43:Business Survey Re
128、sults:How did cargo operations in the last three months compare with the same period last year and how do you expect them to change over the next twelve months?Chart 44:Business Survey Results:How did your cargo operations in the last three months compare with the same period last year and how do yo
129、u expect them to change over the next 12 months?(Jan 2010-23)-30%-15%0%15%30%45%60%year-on-yearRelative performance of air cargo growthGlobal goods tradeIndustry-wide CTKsSources:IATA Statistics,Netherlands CPB-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%200042005200620072008200920001620
130、02020212022%year-on-yearIndustry-wide CTKsGlobal goods tradeSources:IATA Monthly Statistics,Netherlands CPB *average of monthly data.2021 Relativeperformance of air cargo growth30%30%39%17%29%54%0%20%40%60%80%Deterioration/DecreaseNo-changeImprovement/IncreaseLast three monthsNext twelve
131、months%of RespondentsSources:IATA Business Confident Survey(January 2023)00708090100Jan/10Jul/10Jan/11Jul/11Jan/12Jul/12Jan/13Jul/13Jan/14Jul/14Jan/15Jul/15Jan/16Jul/16Jan/17Jul/17Jan/18Jul/18Jan/19Jul/19Jan/20Jul/20Jan/21Jul/21Jan/22Jul/22Jan/23Last three monthsNext twelve monthsWeighted
132、 Score (50=No Change)Source:IATA Business Confidence Survey(January 2023)22 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 IV.Regional Outlook Africa and the Middle East The passenger traffic recovery has been strong for the Africa and Middle East carriers,with year-over-year growth of 87.1%and 64.6%,respectively,in t
133、he first quarter of 2023.For carriers based in Africa,RPKs this quarter were only 9.4%below their levels in Q1 2019.The region,however,continues to face economic barriers that impact the propensity of air travelers to spend,along with various infrastructure challenges that curtail aviation capacity
134、and impede the establishment of reliable air service.Middle East airlines saw their RPKs reach within 8.3%of their Q1 2019 levels.Both regions outperformed the global recovery of RPKs,which reached 85.9%(within 14.1%)of pre-Covid levels for the quarter(Chart 45).Since most of the passenger traffic f
135、or Africa and the Middle East is international,total RPKs followed similar growth trends and recovery rates as international RPKs for these regions(Chart 46).Ticket sales for the regions have consistently outperformed the global average since spring 2021,and although the gap is narrowing,the positiv
136、e trend in ticket sales suggests sustained passenger demand in the upcoming quarter(Chart 48).The country total origin-destination(O-D)passenger traffic trends exhibited high recovery rates for the main economies of the regions.In Northern Africa,compared to the same period in 2019,Morocco and Egypt
137、 saw 20%and 29%growth in O-D passenger traffic,while Tunisia and Algeria trended very close to pre-pandemic levels.Reflecting its weakened local economy,as well as airline capacity constraints,South Africas passengers were 12%below their 2019 levels for the same period,but still improved from the 21
138、%deficit observed last quarter.Passenger traffic in Nigeria was an impressive 57%above 2019 levels,sustaining the positive results we highlighted in the fourth quarter of 2022.The Middle East has also seen sustained recovery with most countries having rebounded,except for Iran and Kuwait where traff
139、ic was respectively 26%and 4%short of full recovery.Jordan,Qatar,Saudi Arabia,and UAE all posted strong growth numbers compared with their 2019 passenger levels(Chart 49).Although the annual growth in available seat kilometers(ASKs)lagged the growth in RPKs,capacity still increased by 62.6%and 35.9%
140、for carriers from Africa and the Middle East,respectively.This slower growth in capacity led to higher passenger load factors for both regions,surpassing pre-pandemic levels.African airlines experienced a 9.8ppt increase in passenger load factors compared to 2022,while Middle East carriers saw a 13.
141、8ppt rise(Chart 50).Cargo performance for airlines registered in Africa was robust in 2021,with cargo volumes mostly surpassing 2019 levels since early that year.In February 2023,CTKs were a remarkable 26%above 2019 levels.Although CTKs remained 15.4%above 2019 levels in Q1 2023,they have gradually
142、declined since September 2022,with an average annual decline of 6.4%in the first quarter of 2023.Cargo activity for Middle East airlines also decreased from the volumes seen in 2021,which were significantly higher than pre-crisis levels.Starting in January 2022,Middle East airlines experienced a con
143、tinuous decline in cargo,with CTKs falling 8.1%YoY in Q1 2023 and dropping to 7.5%below 2019 levels(6.8%below 2019 levels in March).This decline in cargo activity in Africa and the Middle East regions reflects the global slowdown in air cargo demand(Chart 47).Aircraft deliveries in Africa are expect
144、ed to pick up to 32 aircraft in 2023.Most deliveries will be received by a few carriers in the region.While 23 out of 48 deliveries(48%)in 2019 were for widebody jets,the majority of deliveries in 2020 through 2023 are for narrowbodies.However,regional jet and turboprop 23 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 202
145、3 aircraft deliveries remain healthy in the region,supporting short-haul and intra-regional air travel(Chart 50).For Middle East carriers,aircraft deliveries have maintained an upward trend since the lows of 2020.Deliveries for 2023,including 57 planes that are scheduled to be received by the end of
146、 the year,are set to increase by nearly 50%over the previous years numbers.With 82 aircraft in total for 2023,Middle East aircraft deliveries are set to recover to their 2019 levels.This region has also seen a shift in deliveries from predominantly widebody jets in 2019 to narrowbodies since 2020.Th
147、e scheduled deliveries for 2023 indicate growth in both types of jet aircraft,with narrowbodies still accounting for most of the deliveries in the region(Chart 50).Chart 45:Growth in RPKs by region(Africa-Middle East)Chart 46:Growth in international RPKs by region(Africa-Middle East)Chart 47:Growth
148、in CTKs by region(Africa-Middle East)Chart 48:Ticket sales by region(7-day moving average),Africa-Middle East 87.1%125.5%44.3%24.1%64.6%27.2%58.3%-9.4%-25.8%-12.2%-6.6%-8.3%-1.2%-14.1%-50%0%50%100%150%AfricaAsiaPacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddleEastNorthAmericaIndustry%change in Q1 2023vs Q1 2022vs Q1
149、2019Source:IATA Monthly Statistics93.2%339.2%48.2%45.1%68.7%66.1%86.2%-10.9%-40.3%-15.2%-16.4%-8.4%-5.0%-21.1%-75%0%75%150%225%300%375%AfricaAsiaPacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddleEastNorthAmericaIndustry%change in Q1 2023vs Q1 2022vs Q1 2019Source:IATA Monthly Statistics-6.4%-11.0%-14.6%-1.7%-8.1%-11.6
150、%-11.3%15.4%-11.0%-14.8%-3.9%-7.5%3.9%-7.1%-20%-10%0%10%20%AfricaAsiaPacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddleEastNorthAmericaIndustry%change in Q1 2023vs Q1 2022vs Q1 2019Source:IATA Monthly StatisticsAfricaMiddle EastGlobal0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21J
151、ul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-237-day moving average,%change vs the same period in 2019 Source:IATA Economics based on DDS data 24 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 Chart 49:Passenger traffic(O-D)growth by country in Q1 2023(Africa-Middle East)Chart 50:Aircraft deliveries
152、in 2015-2023(scheduled),Africa-Middle East 1%29%19%-26%9%6%-4%20%57%8%11%-12%-3%10%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%change in Q1 2023 vs Q1 2019Middle EastAfricaSource:IATA Economics based on DDS 020406080002120222023Number of commercial aircraftAfrica-DeliveredScheduledMiddle
153、 East-DeliveredScheduledSource:IATA Economics using data from Cirium Fleet AnalyzerWorld share1RPKASKPLF(%-pt)2PLF(level)3RPKASKPLF(%-pt)2PLF(level)3Total market100.0%58.3%37.6%10.3%78.9%-14.1%-12.0%-1.9%78.9%Africa2.1%87.1%62.6%9.8%74.5%-9.4%-13.4%3.3%74.5%Middle East9.8%64.6%35.9%13.8%79.4%-8.3%-1
154、5.0%5.8%79.4%1%of industry RPKs in 20222Change in load factor3Load factor levelQ1 2023(%ch vs the same quarter in 2022)Q1 2023(%ch vs the same quarter in 2019)Note:The total industry and regional growth rates are based on a constant sample of airlines combining reported data and estimates for missin
155、g observations.Airline traffic is allocated according to the region in which the carrier is registrated;it should not be considered as regional traffic.25 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 Americas In the first quarter of 2023,North America and Latin America airlines increased their total RPKs by 27.2%and
156、 24.1%,respectively,compared to Q1 2022.This expansion in passenger traffic contributed to the strong recovery for the regions carriers,as they have almost returned to their 2019 levels,recovering 98.8%in North America and 93.4%in Latin America airlines(Chart 51).For North America airlines,internati
157、onal RPKs followed the general upward trend of the other regions with a growth of 66.1%in Q1 2023 over the same period in 2022.Although their international passenger volume was 5.0%below 2019 levels,they remain the closest to pre-Covid levels compared with other regions.This improvement can be attri
158、buted to Canadas fast recovery in this quarter,recovering 90%of pre-pandemic traffic while the US market stayed just above 2019 levels(Chart 52,Chart 55).Latin America airlines,with a 45.1%annual increase,had the lowest international passenger traffic growth amongst the regions,but were close to the
159、 average recovery of pre-pandemic traffic,with their RPKs sitting 16.4%below Q1 2019 levels(Chart 52).This regions traffic also exhibits a high degree of variation across countries.Some countries have demonstrated a strong recovery including Colombia,Mexico,and the Dominican Republic,growing to more
160、 than 15 ppts above 2019 levels.Other important markets in the region,such as Argentina,Peru,and Brazil,remained 5 to 12 ppts below 2019 levels.The passenger load factor increased the first quarter for both regions with a 5.8%rise for North America carriers and 1.7%for airlines based in Latin Americ
161、a.Ticket sales showed a positive trend in the first quarter,and recent data suggest that airlines in the region are increasing capacity to cover the summer season(Chart 54).Although ticket sales outperformed the global average trend,they have converged in the latest period as global ticket sales pic
162、ked up momentum to catch up with their pre-crisis volumes.Cargo traffic for North America and Latin America airlines followed the industrys downward trend of CTKs,which was 11.3%below its Q1 2022 level.Although cargo traffic for Latin America carriers was 1.7%below Q1 2022 levels,they experienced th
163、e smallest decline in CTKs compared with other airline regions that suffered significant traffic losses over the same period.In part,this can be attributed to the strong demand for flower exports from Colombia and Ecuador,the worlds second and third largest flower exporters,and more than 95%of these
164、 exports are moved by air cargo.On the other hand,North American airlines saw their CTKs drop 11.6%below Q1 2022 levels,showing the second-biggest decline in cargo traffic after the European carriers.The decline in air cargo demand in North America,in part,is tied to the rebound of the maritime indu
165、stry,which was facilitated by the easing of shipping restrictions and logistical bottlenecks(Chart 53).Several Latin American countries continued to maintain their O-D passenger traffic above 2019 levels,including Colombia,Mexico,Ecuador,and the Dominican Republic.With 4%growth over 2019 levels,Cost
166、a Rica joined the group of Latin American markets that posted passenger numbers above pre-crisis levels in Q4 2022.Although Jamaicas traffic dipped below pre-pandemic levels in Q1 2023,Caribbean states have benefited from air service expansions,flexible operating environments and government policies
167、 that promote tourism in the region.Cuba continued to lag in the recovery,although it showed modest improvements in the passenger numbers for this quarter(Chart 55).Around one-third of global aircraft deliveries for 2023 are anticipated to be received by carriers in North America(primarily in the US
168、).Although the regions aircraft deliveries were already above 2019 levels last year,they are expected to grow by an additional 72 units this year.The aircraft deliveries planned for 2023 support the regions expected full recovery of passenger traffic this year.Deliveries in the Latin American region
169、 also recovered to pre-pandemic levels in 2022.Scheduled and fulfilled deliveries in 2023 suggest that the fleet growth for in terms of new aircraft is moderating this year.For both regions,deliveries are expected to be primarily narrowbody jets(Chart 56).26 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 Chart 51:Grow
170、th in RPKs by region(Americas)Chart 52:Growth in international RPKs by region(Americas)Chart 53:Growth in CTKs by region(Americas)Chart 54:Ticket sales by region(7-day moving average),Americas Chart 55:Passenger traffic(O-D)growth by country in Q1 2023,Americas Chart 56:Aircraft deliveries in 2015-2
171、023(scheduled),Americas 87.1%125.5%44.3%24.1%64.6%27.2%58.3%-9.4%-25.8%-12.2%-6.6%-8.3%-1.2%-14.1%-50%0%50%100%150%AfricaAsiaPacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddleEastNorthAmericaIndustry%change in Q1 2023vs Q1 2022vs Q1 2019Source:IATA Monthly Statistics93.2%339.2%48.2%45.1%68.7%66.1%86.2%-10.9%-40.3%-15.
172、2%-16.4%-8.4%-5.0%-21.1%-75%0%75%150%225%300%375%AfricaAsiaPacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddleEastNorthAmericaIndustry%change in Q1 2023vs Q1 2022vs Q1 2019Source:IATA Monthly Statistics-6.4%-11.0%-14.6%-1.7%-8.1%-11.6%-11.3%15.4%-11.0%-14.8%-3.9%-7.5%3.9%-7.1%-20%-10%0%10%20%AfricaAsiaPacificEuropeLati
173、nAmericaMiddleEastNorthAmericaIndustry%change in Q1 2023vs Q1 2022vs Q1 2019Source:IATA Monthly StatisticsGlobal0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-237-day moving average,%change vs the sa
174、me period in 2019 Source:IATA Economics based on DDS dataNorth AmericaLatin America-12%-5%-10%-14%27%4%-38%15%8%-4%18%-10%0.2%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%change in Q1 2023 vs Q1 2019North AmericaLatin AmericaSource:IATA Economics based on DDS data0500300350400450500200021202
175、22023Number of commercial aircraftLatin America-DeliveredScheduledNorth America-DeliveredScheduledSource:IATA Economics using data from Cirium Fleet World share1RPKASKPLF(%-pt)2PLF(level)3RPKASKPLF(%-pt)2PLF(level)3Total market100.0%58.3%37.6%10.3%78.9%-14.1%-12.0%-1.9%78.9%Latin America6.4%24.1%21.
176、6%1.7%81.3%-6.6%-6.0%-0.5%81.3%North America28.9%27.2%18.0%5.8%80.2%-1.2%1.1%-1.8%80.2%1%of industry RPKs in 20222Change in load factor3Load factor levelQ1 2023(%ch vs the same quarter in 2019)Q1 2023(%ch vs the same quarter in 2022)Note:The total industry and regional growth rates are based on a co
177、nstant sample of airlines combining reported data and estimates for missing observations.Airline traffic is allocated according to the region in which the carrier is registrated;it should not be considered as regional traffic.27 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 Asia Pacific The Asia Pacific airlines regi
178、stered a strong traffic recovery in Q1 2023,compared to the same period last year,with RPKs increasing by 125.5%(Chart 57).This was the highest growth amongst the regions.However,when compared to pre-Covid traffic levels,Asia Pacific still lagged other regions,with RPKs at only 74.2%of the levels se
179、en in Q1 2019.Total ASKs for airlines in the region grew by 74.3%YoY in Q1 2023,reaching 77.2%of pre-pandemic levels and marking a significant increase in capacity.Additionally,the passenger load factor for the regions airlines also improved,showing a year-on-year increase of 17.9 ppts and reaching
180、78.8%.These developments in total ASK and passenger load factor are highly encouraging and support the increasing demand for air travel in the region.Similar but more pronounced trends in the annual growth and recovery to pre-pandemic levels were observed in Asia Pacifics international RPKs(Chart 58
181、).International RPKs of airlines in the region grew by more than three times in Q1 2023,compared to the same period last year.Starting from a low base,this was by far the strongest growth across the regions.However,international traffic of Asia Pacific airlines is still the lowest versus 2019 levels
182、 of all regions,reaching only 59.7%of Q1 2019 RPKs.This trend reflects the fact that borders in the region opened much later than in other regions and the recovery only started to take place late last year.Cargo traffic for Asia Pacific airlines during Q1 2023 experienced an 11%decrease compared to
183、both Q1 2022 and pre-pandemic levels(Chart 59),placing the region behind most other regions on this measure.Airlines in the region continued to be impacted by disruptions to trade,manufacturing,and supply chains due to pandemic-related challenges in China.Ticket sales in the region were below the gl
184、obal average for most of 2022,reflecting the slower reopening of borders in the region.However,ticket sales caught up in Q1 2023(Chart 60)as traffic in the region continued to recover to pre-pandemic level.This includes Chinas domestic air travel market,which has recovered fully to 2019 levels over
185、the course of the first quarter this year.Shortly after the reopening of Chinas international borders in January,a surge in international ticket sales also indicated the start of the rebounding trend in Chinas international markets.Since Q4 2022,the region has seen a broad recovery in O-D passenger
186、numbers.With the slower reopening of the Greater China region and residual restrictions in China,however,China lagged significantly behind other major economies in the Asia Pacific region last quarter.In Q1 2023,the strong recovery in Chinas domestic and international markets helped China increase p
187、assenger traffic to be within 15%of 2019 levels for the same period(Chart 61).Chinese Taipei and Hong Kong(SAR)have also improved their O-D passenger traffic,although not at the pace of mainland China.Other economies in the wider region have benefited from the remarkable recovery that is taking plac
188、e in the Greater China area,although passengers for most remained significantly below their 2019 numbers.Vietnams passenger traffic climbed just above pre-crisis while India also recovered passenger volumes to be 1%above 2019 levels.Apart from New Zealand,where traffic remained stable,all countries
189、achieved further recovery in Q1 2023 as connectivity with other regions continued to be restored.The number of aircraft expected to be delivered in the Asia Pacific region remains relatively low as the region has yet to recover to pre-Covid levels(Chart 62).However,deliveries have maintained a stead
190、y increase from the depth of 2020 levels,and the region expects a 21%YoY increase in new aircraft for 2023.With 427 units scheduled for 2023,of which 88 have already been delivered,the Asia Pacific region will account for the second-highest volume of aircraft deliveries in 2023(29%share).Prior to th
191、e pandemic,the Asia Pacific region(mainly China and India)typically accounted for the largest share of global aircraft deliveries(39%share in 2019).Since Asia Pacific also accounted for the largest share of widebody orders,the slower recovery of the regions traffic has thus contributed to the delaye
192、d recovery in widebody aircraft deliveries.28 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 Chart 57:Growth in RPKs by region(Asia Pacific)Chart 58:Growth in international RPKs by region(Asia Pacific)Chart 59:Growth in CTKs by region(Asia Pacific)Chart 60:Ticket sales by region(7-day moving average),Asia Pacific Char
193、t 61:Passenger traffic(O-D)growth by country in Q1 2023,Asia Pacific Chart 62:Aircraft deliveries in 2015-2023(scheduled),Asia Pacific 87.1%125.5%44.3%24.1%64.6%27.2%58.3%-9.4%-25.8%-12.2%-6.6%-8.3%-1.2%-14.1%-50%0%50%100%150%AfricaAsiaPacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddleEastNorthAmericaIndustry%change i
194、n Q1 2023vs Q1 2022vs Q1 2019Source:IATA Monthly Statistics93.2%339.2%48.2%45.1%68.7%66.1%86.2%-10.9%-40.3%-15.2%-16.4%-8.4%-5.0%-21.1%-75%0%75%150%225%300%375%AfricaAsiaPacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddleEastNorthAmericaIndustry%change in Q1 2023vs Q1 2022vs Q1 2019Source:IATA Monthly Statistics-6.4%-1
195、1.0%-14.6%-1.7%-8.1%-11.6%-11.3%15.4%-11.0%-14.8%-3.9%-7.5%3.9%-7.1%-20%-10%0%10%20%AfricaAsiaPacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddleEastNorthAmericaIndustry%change in Q1 2023vs Q1 2022vs Q1 2019Source:IATA Monthly StatisticsGlobal0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May
196、-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23%change vs the same period in 2019 Source:IATA Economics Asia Pacific-10%-15%-50%-64%1%-22%-11%-23%-19%-13%-28%-29%-27%1%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%change in Q1 2023 vs Q1 2019Source:IATA Economics based on DDS data005006
197、0070080090020002120222023Number of commercial aircraftSource:IATA Economics using data from Cirium Fleet World share1RPKASKPLF(%-pt)2PLF(level)3RPKASKPLF(%-pt)2PLF(level)3Total market100.0%58.3%37.6%10.3%78.9%-14.1%-12.0%-1.9%78.9%Asia Pacific22.1%125.5%74.3%17.9%78.8%-25.8%-22
198、.8%-3.2%78.8%1%of industry RPKs in 20222Change in load factor3Load factor levelNote:The total industry and regional growth rates are based on a constant sample of airlines combining reported data and estimates for missing observations.Airline traffic is allocated according to the region in which the
199、 carrier is registrated;it should not be considered as regional traffic.Q1 2023(%ch vs the same quarter in 2019)Q1 2023(%ch vs the same quarter in 2022)29 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 Europe Despite the impacts of the ongoing war in Ukraine,and the wave of Omicron variant cases early in 2022,air pass
200、enger traffic in Europe has been rebounding swiftly since March 2022.This rapid growth continued through the first quarter of 2023,as European airlines experienced a robust 44%increase in total passenger traffic compared to the same period in 2022(Chart 63).Though not fully recovered by the end of t
201、he first quarter,European airlines managed to narrow the gap to just 12%below pre-pandemic levels.This recovery was mostly led by domestic air passenger traffic,which has already surpassed its Q1 2019 level by more than 10%.Moreover,European airlines have been responsible for carrying almost 40%of g
202、lobal international air passengers.In the first quarter,international traffic handled by the airlines saw a 48%surge compared to the same period last year.However,it remains 15%below pre-pandemic levels(Chart 64).In terms of capacity,ASKs by European airlines have recovered to 92%of 2019 levels duri
203、ng the first quarter of this year,shortly behind airlines in the Americas,but ahead of airlines from the rest of the world.Domestic air passenger capacity has fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels,while international passenger capacity,however,was affected by Russias invasion of Ukraine and by limi
204、ted air space capacity.Still,international ASKs have managed to recover by almost 27%YoY and are only 8%short of their pre-pandemic level.The load factors of European carriers have been improving steadily from the air passenger side and stood at 77%at the end of the first quarter,slightly below thei
205、r pre-pandemic level.This is mostly led by the domestic passenger segment,where the load factor reached 88%during the first quarter and recorded the highest domestic passenger load factor compared to airlines from other regions.Cargo load factors,on the other hand,had seen some improvement since the
206、 start of this year,despite the downward trend they experienced since early 2021.Cargo load factors averaged 56%for European carriers for the first quarter in 2023,10 ppts higher than the average industry cargo load factor,and the highest compared to airlines from other regions.Air passengers in Eur
207、ope showed a rapid recovery in ticket sales through mid-2022.Since then,the upward trend has slowed down,aligning with the global average in recent months(Chart 66).These developments are partly reflected in the varied O-D passenger trends for the regions major markets.During the first quarter of th
208、is year,Portugal stood out with 23%more traffic compared to pre-pandemic levels,owing to the reviving tourism travel.Italy,Poland,Greece,and Spain also registered growth this quarter over their 2019 passenger levels.Despite the recovery in the breadth of Europes connectivity,O-D passengers in Finlan
209、d and Germany were notably still 24%and 29%below their respective 2019 levels.With the summer season approaching,we can anticipate increased activity among travelers to and from the region(Chart 67).In the realm of air cargo,fluctuations have been observed across all regions.After experiencing a dow
210、nward trajectory throughout 2022,total air cargo traffic for European airlines began stabilizing at the beginning of 2023.During the first quarter of 2023,these airlines transported approximately 15%less cargo compared to both the corresponding period in 2022 and pre-pandemic levels(Chart 65).Europe
211、s air cargo performance was the weakest compared with other regions.European airlines demonstrated confidence in their traffic growth as they continued to acquire new aircraft for this year.Maintaining their steady growth in delivery volumes from 2020,deliveries are set to grow by 20%in 2023.With 98
212、 units delivered and an additional 279 aircraft to be received in Europe,a total of 377 aircraft deliveries places European carriers as the third-largest recipients of aircraft in 2023(26%share).Europe accounts for the second largest share of widebodies scheduled for delivery in 2023,following Asia
213、Pacific.Although widebody deliveries are up by more than 20%YoY,they are still lagging their pre-pandemic levels(Chart 68).30 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 Chart 63:Growth in RPKs by region(Europe)Chart 64:Growth in international RPKs by region(Europe)Chart 65:Growth in CTKs by region(Europe)Chart 66:
214、Ticket sales by region(7-day moving average),Europe Chart 67:Passenger traffic(O-D)growth by country in Q1 2023,Europe Chart 68:Aircraft deliveries in 2015-2023(scheduled),Europe 87.1%125.5%44.3%24.1%64.6%27.2%58.3%-9.4%-25.8%-12.2%-6.6%-8.3%-1.2%-14.1%-50%0%50%100%150%AfricaAsiaPacificEuropeLatinAm
215、ericaMiddleEastNorthAmericaIndustry%change in Q1 2023vs Q1 2022vs Q1 2019Source:IATA Monthly Statistics93.2%339.2%48.2%45.1%68.7%66.1%86.2%-10.9%-40.3%-15.2%-16.4%-8.4%-5.0%-21.1%-75%0%75%150%225%300%375%AfricaAsiaPacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddleEastNorthAmericaIndustry%change in Q1 2023vs Q1 2022vs
216、Q1 2019Source:IATA Monthly Statistics-6.4%-11.0%-14.6%-1.7%-8.1%-11.6%-11.3%15.4%-11.0%-14.8%-3.9%-7.5%3.9%-7.1%-20%-10%0%10%20%AfricaAsiaPacificEuropeLatinAmericaMiddleEastNorthAmericaIndustry%change in Q1 2023vs Q1 2022vs Q1 2019Source:IATA Monthly StatisticsGlobal0%20%40%60%80%100%120%Jan-20Mar-2
217、0May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23%change vs the same period in 2019 Source:IATA Economics based on DDS dataEurope-11%-24%-6%-29%8%-8%3%-16%-3%3%23%4%-8%-15%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%change in Q1 2023 vs Q1 2019Source:IATA E
218、conomics based on DDS data050030035040045050020002120222023Number of commercial aircraftSource:IATA Economics using data from Cirium Fleet World share1RPKASKPLF(%-pt)2PLF(level)3RPKASKPLF(%-pt)2PLF(level)3Total market100.0%58.3%37.6%10.3%78.9%-14.1%-12.0%-1.9%78.9%Eu
219、rope30.7%44.3%26.9%9.3%77.4%-12.2%-7.2%-4.4%77.4%1%of industry RPKs in 20222Change in load factor3Load factor levelNote:The total industry and regional growth rates are based on a constant sample of airlines combining reported data and estimates for missing observations.Airline traffic is allocated
220、according to the region in which the carrier is registrated;it should not be considered as regional traffic.Q1 2023(%ch vs the same quarter in 2019)Q1 2023(%ch vs the same quarter in 2022)31 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 V.Appendix Table A:Top 100 countries based on the International Connectivity Inde
221、x 2022 Country International Connectivity Score 2022 Global Ranking 2019 Global Ranking 2022 Difference in ranking between 2019 and 2022 Growth in International Connectivity between 2019-2022 United States 41,581,617 1 1=-25%United Kingdom 30,661,411 3 2 1-27%Germany 25,096,867 4 3 1-31%Spain 24,355
222、,319 6 4 2-15%Italy 19,217,163 7 5 2-25%France 18,523,275 9 6 3-23%United Arab Emirates 16,677,454 10 7 3-25%India 14,631,645 13 8 5-22%Mexico 14,557,109 19 9 10 11%Trkiye 13,689,158 18 10 8 0%Canada 12,374,830 15 11 4-30%Netherlands 9,994,019 20 12 8-23%Saudi Arabia 9,343,537 27 13 14-7%Singapore 9
223、,018,972 14 14=-51%Switzerland 8,982,575 23 15 8-27%Portugal 8,144,580 28 16 12-4%Thailand 7,947,586 8 17 9-68%Japan 7,796,545 5 18 13-76%Greece 7,608,231 31 19 12 6%Qatar 7,590,885 29 20 9-10%Korea,Republic of 6,235,668 11 21 10-71%Ireland 6,224,766 30 22 8-14%Australia 5,874,971 22 23 1-53%Egypt 5
224、,329,968 38 24 14 6%Vietnam 5,130,054 24 25 1-58%Philippines 5,087,617 25 26 1-54%Denmark 5,028,040 33 27 6-25%Malaysia 4,951,311 17 28 11-65%Chinese Taipei 4,929,463 16 29 13-71%Austria 4,880,385 32 30 2-32%Poland 4,822,626 35 31 4-19%Indonesia 4,490,084 21 32 11-65%Sweden 4,260,618 34 33 1-32%Paki
225、stan 4,118,028 42 34 8-4%32 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 Israel 4,041,296 39 35 4-15%Hong Kong(SAR)3,983,993 12 36 24-81%Belgium 3,944,200 36 37 1-25%Norway 3,769,163 40 38 2-21%Dominican Republic 3,709,490 50 39 11 9%Brazil 3,649,433 37 40 3-29%Russian Federation 3,493,876 26 41 15-68%Morocco 3,368,
226、671 44 42 2-13%China PR 3,314,579 2 43 41-93%Colombia 3,283,407 53 44 9 10%Kuwait 2,991,730 43 45 2-26%Romania 2,853,258 52 46 6-9%Finland 2,837,374 41 47 6-37%Bangladesh 2,392,432 60 48 12 1%Iran 2,308,292 58 49 9-5%Panama 2,204,145 61 50 11-6%Bahrain 2,090,387 57 51 6-15%Hungary 2,058,440 54 52 2-
227、30%Jordan 1,946,083 64 53 11-9%South Africa 1,937,336 51 54 3-40%Czech Republic 1,932,861 48 55 7-46%Oman 1,862,658 46 56 10-50%Croatia 1,836,896 67 57 10-12%Argentina 1,827,451 55 58 3-35%Cyprus 1,823,423 66 59 7-14%Lebanon 1,742,045 62 60 2-23%Jamaica 1,639,535 75 61 14-3%Ethiopia 1,603,085 63 62
228、1-28%Peru 1,548,066 65 63 2-27%Iraq 1,541,110 71 64 7-20%Maldives 1,538,482 82 65 17 17%Costa Rica 1,528,565 77 66 11 0%Tunisia 1,483,046 73 67 6-14%Serbia 1,468,422 78 68 10-4%Sri Lanka 1,467,298 56 69 13-44%Iceland 1,447,343 76 70 6-13%Algeria 1,378,069 68 71 3-33%Chile 1,335,259 69 72 3-34%New Ze
229、aland 1,320,836 47 73 26-63%Bulgaria 1,196,526 74 74=-29%Nepal 1,163,285 79 75 4-21%33 Quarterly Chartbook Q1 2023 Kenya 1,095,967 81 76 5-22%Nigeria 1,080,284 85 77 8-9%Uzbekistan 1,076,566 88 78 10 3%Kazakhstan 1,073,619 80 79 1-27%Cambodia 998,619 49 80 31-72%Bahamas 989,834 84 81 3-18%El Salvado
230、r 973,597 87 82 5-10%Cuba 962,154 72 83 11-48%Malta 894,208 86 84 2-23%Ecuador 844,818 92 85 7-11%Azerbaijan 832,709 90 86 4-15%Latvia 813,892 83 87 4-34%Mauritius 763,815 91 88 3-20%Luxembourg 763,809 89 89=-23%Georgia 749,577 94 90 4-11%Sudan 749,315 102 91 11 22%Guatemala 728,853 97 92 5-1%Albania 693,411 106 93 13 38%Ukraine 690,603 45 94 49-82%Lithuania 621,724 95 95=-21%Aruba 585,909 101 96 5-6%Tanzania 574,232 99 97 2-10%Ghana 537,466 105 98 7-1%Senegal 503,324 108 99 9 12%Kyrgyzstan 474,718 120 100 20 29%Iata.org/economics economicsiata.org