1、The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising TransportThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates

2、policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,13 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of internatio

3、nal frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlan

4、dsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TrkiyeUnited KingdomUnited StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:Argentina BrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingapore South Africa Thailand Ukra

5、ineINTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYThe Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Abstract PAGE|3 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Abstract Rapid deployment of low-emission fuels during this decade will be crucial to accelerate the decarbonisation of the transport sector.Significant electrification opportunities are availab

6、le for the road transport sector,while the aviation and marine sectors continue to be more reliant on fuel-based solutions for their decarbonisation.Fuels obtained from electrolytic hydrogen,or e-fuels,could be a viable pathway and scale up quickly by 2030,underpinned by a massive expansion of cheap

7、er renewable electricity and anticipated cost reductions of electrolysers.Low-emission e-fuels can add to the diversification of decarbonisation options that are available for aviation and shipping and there exists a big potential synergy with biofuels production,especially in the form of biogenic C

8、O2 utilisation.This new IEA report presents a techno-economic assessment of a family of emerging e-fuel technologies.It assesses the implications in terms of needed cost reductions,resources and infrastructure investments of an assumed ambitious goal of achieving a 10%share of e-fuels in aviation an

9、d shipping by 2030.The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Acknowledgements PAGE|4 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements,contributors and credits The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport report was prepared jointly by the Oil Industry and Markets Division and the Renewable Energy Division of t

10、he Directorate of Energy Markets and Security of the International Energy Agency.The study was designed and directed by Paolo Frankl,Head of the Renewable Energy Division(RED)and Toril Bosoni,Head of Oil Industry and Markets Division(OIM),who also co-ordinated the production of the report.The work b

11、enefitted from strategic guidance by Keisuke Sadamori,Director of Energy Markets and Security(EMS).Ilkka Hannula,Senior Energy Analyst(RED),led the analysis and was the principal author of the report.Other authors were Jose Bermudez Menendez,Toril Bosoni,Alexander Bressers,Francois Briens,Elizabeth

12、Connelly,Joel Couse,Laurence Cret,Mathilde Fajardy,Ciarn Healy,Jeremy Moorhouse and Youngsun Om.Jennifer Thomson provided statistical support and research assistance.Deven Mooneesawmy and Arielle Francis provided essential support.Valuable comments and feedback were provided by senior management and

13、 colleagues within the IEA,including Timur Gl,Uwe Remme,Simon Bennett,David Martin,Ronan Graham and Ilias Atigui.The IEA Communications and Digital Office provided production support.Particular thanks go to Jethro Mullen and his team;Astrid Dumond,Oliver Joy,Therese Walsh and Clara Vallois.Diane Mun

14、ro edited the report.Many experts from outside of the IEA provided input and reviewed preliminary drafts of the report.Their comments and suggestions were of great value.They include:Adam Baylin-Stern Carbon Engineering Marc Bednarz CWP Global Herib Blanco Independent analyst Angelique Brunon TotalE

15、nergies Gabriel Castellanos IMO Pierpaolo Cazzola Columbia University Nadiya Danilina-Schmidt TotalEnergies Arno De Klerk University of Alberta Matthias Deutsch Agora Energiewende Michael Dwyer Energy Information Administration(USA)The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Acknowledgements PAGE

16、|5 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Anselm Eisentraut Neste Jacinthe Frecon Axens Thomas Garbe Volkswagen Andres Guzman Valderrama KAPSARC John Bgild Hansen Topsoe Sebastian Hirsz BP Zaffar Hussain Agora Energiewende Leandro Janke Agora Energiewende Caroline Jung Carbon Engineering Asmara Klein Topsoe Andreas Kopf ITF

17、 Vittorio Manente Aramco Overseas Company B.V.Takehiko Nagai Ministry of Economy,Trade and Industry(Japan)Ulf Neuling Agora Verkehrswende Takashi Nomura Toyota Torben Nrgaard Mrsk Mc-Kinney Mller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping Kentaro Oe Permanent Delegation of Japan to the OECD Cdric Philibert Fre

18、nch Institute of International Relations Matteo Prussi Politecnico di Torino Frdrique Rigas Airbus Sebastien Roche TotalEnergies Jean-Marc Sohier Concawe Robert Spicer BP Zoltn Szab Ethanol Europe Jacob Teter Independent analyst Ram Vijayagopal Argonne National Laboratory Bojun Wang IATA The Role of

19、 E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Table of contents PAGE|6 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Table of contents Executive summary.7 Chapter 1.Introduction.10 Chapter 2.Decarbonisation trends.13 Transport fuel demand.13 Tracking transport decarbonisation.15 Biofuel supply potential.16 Chapter 3.Status and outlook.20 Wh

20、at are e-fuels?.20 Current status.22 Announced projects.22 Geographic distribution.25 Policy environment.27 Chapter 4.Production costs.33 Plant investment.33 Electricity price.34 Captive renewables.37 Cost of CO feedstock.39 Heat integration.41 Innovation.43 Chapter 5.Deployment analysis.46 10%e-fue

21、ls for aviation.46 10%e-fuels for shipping.53 Chapter 6.Resource requirements.60 Low-emission electricity.60 Electrolyser capacity.61 CO feedstock.62 Bulk materials and critical minerals.63 Water requirements.66 Land requirements.68 Expected lead times.69 Chapter 7.Policy considerations.70 Annex.73

22、Abbreviations and acronyms.73 Units of measure.74 The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Executive summary PAGE|7 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary Rapid deployment of low-emission fuels during this decade will be crucial to accelerate the decarbonisation of the transport sector.Significant re

23、ductions in fossil fuel demand are possible in road transport through fuel efficiency improvements and surging sales of electric vehicles(EVs).At the same time,the aviation and marine sectors continue to be more reliant on fuel-based solutions for their decarbonisation.Sustainable aviation fuels are

24、 increasingly becoming part of the aviation fuel mix,while orders for new ships are showing a trend towards alternative fuels.Fuels obtained from electrolytic hydrogen,or e-fuels,could be a viable pathway and scale up rapidly by 2030,underpinned by a massive expansion of cheaper renewable electricit

25、y and anticipated cost reductions of electrolysers.This study is not a scenario analysis,but a techno-economic assessment of a family of emerging e-fuel technologies.It assesses the implications in terms of needed cost reductions,resources and infrastructure investments of an assumed ambitious goal

26、of achieving a 10%share of e-fuels in aviation and shipping by 2030.Low-emission e-fuels can add to the diversification of decarbonisation options that are available for transport.E-fuels are low-emission fuels when their hydrogen is produced using low-emission electricity and any carbon inputs are

27、obtained in a way that leads to low life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions.In transport,low-emission e-fuels provide a complementary solution to sustainable biofuels.Particularly in aviation,e-fuels benefit from their ability to use existing transport,storage,distribution infrastructure and end-use equ

28、ipment.Low-emission e-fuels are currently expensive to produce,but their cost gap with fossil fuels could be significantly reduced by 2030.By the end of the decade,driven by cost reductions enabled by the realisation of current globally announced electrolyser projects,tapping sites with high-quality

29、 renewable resources and optimised project design,the cost of low-emission e-kerosene could be reduced to USD 50/GJ(USD 2 150/t),which would enable it to compete with biomass-based sustainable aviation fuels.The cost of low-emission e-methanol could be cut to USD 35/GJ(USD 700/t)and e-ammonia to USD

30、 30/GJ(USD 550/t)making them cost comparable with the higher end of fossil methanol and ammonia prices over the 2010-2020 period as a chemical commodity,and opening a door for their use as a low-emission fuels for shipping.Moreover,the production of e-fuels for aviation also leads to non-negligible

31、amount of e-gasoline being produced as a by-product.The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Executive summary PAGE|8 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Low-emission e-fuels,while still costly in 2030,will have limited impact on transport prices at a 10%share.At a cost of USD 50/GJ,e-kerosene would increase the ti

32、cket price of a flight using 10%of e-fuels by just 5%.Although e-methanol and e-ammonia are cheaper to produce than e-kerosene,their widespread use as shipping fuels will require significant investments in compatible bunkering infrastructure and ships.The total cost of ownership of a 100%e-ammonia o

33、r e-methanol-fuelled containership would be 75%higher than a conventional containership operating on fossil fuels.Although a substantial increase,the extra cost would represent only 1-2%of the typical value of goods transported in containers.Due to several conversion steps and associated losses,the

34、production of e-fuels generally suffers from low efficiency,leading to high resource and/or infrastructure demand.Producing large amounts of low-emission e-fuels could trigger around 2 000 TWh/yr of additional renewable electricity demand by 2030.While a significant increase,that would be around one

35、-fifth of the growth of low-emission electricity during this decade in the IEAs Stated Policies Scenario(STEPS),and less in the Announced Pledges Scenario(APS)and Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario(NZE Scenario).The production of low-emission e-fuels can also unlock the huge potential of remote loc

36、ations with high-quality renewable resources and vast amounts of land available for large-scale project development,which would not otherwise have high electricity demand.By contrast,a significant ramp up of electrolyser manufacturing would be needed to achieve a 10%share of e-fuels in both aviation

37、 and shipping since it would require over 400 GW of electrolyser capacity,equal to the entire size of the global electrolyser project pipeline to 2030.Accelerated deployment of low-emission e-fuels for shipping would require significant investments in refuelling infrastructure and in vessels.Achievi

38、ng a 10%share in shipping would require around 70 Mt/yr of e-ammonia or e-methanol.This is 3.5 times the current global traded volume of ammonia or two times the trade in methanol.Additional cumulative investments in shipping capacity would be USD 30-75 billion,dependent on how investments would be

39、distributed between ammonia and methanol ships.This would represent less than a 5%share of the cumulative shipbuilding market size over the period of 2023-2030.Similarly,the incremental investment for bunkering infrastructure is expected to be in the order of USD 10-30 billion.Carbon-containing low-

40、emission e-kerosene and e-methanol would require a massive increase in CO utilisation.There exists a significant potential synergy with biofuels production,as by-product CO2 from bioethanol and from biomethane plants are among the cheapest(USD 20-30/t CO2)sources.Moreover,coming from sustainable bio

41、genic sources,they enable the production of low life-cycle GHG emission e-fuels.The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Executive summary PAGE|9 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Around 200 Mt CO would be needed to produce the 10%share of e-kerosene for aviation,and 150 Mt CO to produce the 10%share for shipping

42、 if all would be in the form of e-methanol.It would not be possible to supply this combined amount from low-cost biogenic sources alone,but it could be supplemented from pulp making,albeit at a higher cost.In any case,utilising this currently untapped resource would require massive scale up of over

43、100 times the current capture volumes from biogenic sources.Access to CO is an important constraint to carbon-containing low-emission e-fuels,which is not the case with e-ammonia.The best wind and solar resources are not necessarily co-located with significant bioenergy resources,which puts addition

44、al constraints on siting e-fuel projects that require carbon input.This may require CO2 pipeline infrastructure.While techno-economically feasible,it may face important social acceptance challenges.Direct air capture(DAC)of CO could provide a potentially unlimited source of CO feedstock without geog

45、raphic constraints,but it is expected to remain a high-cost option in 2030.By contrast,as a carbon-free molecule,ammonia production does not require CO2,therefore has less constraints for project development.To enable widespread adoption and trade,e-fuels will need to meet established technical and

46、safety standards and internationally agreed methodologies for measuring life-cycle GHG emissions.International bodies such as International Organization for Standardization(ISO),the International Maritime Organization(IMO)and the American Society for Testing and Materials(ASTM)have already establish

47、ed standards for some e-fuel production and use pathways,but standards for ammonia quality and safety,methanol safety,and higher e-kerosene blending levels are still under development.Further development of comprehensive international standards,protocols and pathways for fuel quality,safety and life

48、-cycle GHG emissions are needed to enable trade and use in international aviation and shipping.These processes will also require ongoing development as new technologies and applications for e-fuels evolve.Governments need to take bolder action to stimulate demand for low-emission e-fuels.In order to

49、 exploit potential decarbonisation options,with limited increase on consumer prices,achieving economies of scale through predictable demand will be key.More than 200 projects are currently under development around the world,although a large majority of e-fuel projects are at early stages.To achieve

50、accelerated deployment,it is essential that countries continue to adopt policies that create a predictable demand for early projects,support required infrastructure investments,drive down the cost of electrolysers,encourage R&D activities focused on developing new high-efficiency e-fuel technologies

51、,and promote the potential to exploit synergies between e-fuels,biofuels and carbon capture utilisation and storage(CCUS).The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 1.Introduction PAGE|10 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Chapter 1.Introduction The global energy crisis has moved energy security to the fore

52、of the international policy agenda and accelerated the momentum behind the deployment of clean energy technologies.Government policy makers prioritising energy security are increasingly focused on the role that fuels obtained from electrolytic hydrogen,or e-fuels,can play in reducing oil dependence

53、and decarbonising the transport sector.E-fuels are low-emission fuels when their hydrogen is produced using low-emission electricity and any carbon inputs are obtained in a way that leads to low life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions.E-fuels made from biogenic or air-captured CO can potentially provide

54、 full emissions reduction,making them the primary production pathway that is consistent with achieving net zero emissions by mid-century.Investment in clean energy is already accelerating at a much faster rate than for fossil fuels,helping to deliver a peak in global fossil fuel use before 2030.From

55、 2017 to 2023,clean energy investments increased from around USD 1.13 trillion to USD 1.74 trillion.At the same time,spending on fossil fuels declined from USD 1.11 trillion to USD 1.05 trillion.However,the pace of change is still too slow,and stronger policy measures and behavioural changes will be

56、 needed to get on track with the NZE Scenario.Figure 1.1 Transport sector oil demand under current policies and net zero targets IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:Oil 2023=data from the IEAs Oil 2023-Analysis and forecast to 2028.NZE=Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.In road transport,vehicle efficiency improve

57、ments along with surging sales of hybrid and electric vehicles are driving down average fuel consumption and CO 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 20262030EJRoad TransportOIL 2023NZE0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0262030Shipping0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 0262030AviationThe Role of E-fuels in

58、Decarbonising Transport Chapter 1.Introduction PAGE|11 IEA.CC BY 4.0.emissions.As a result,gasoline and diesel use by cars,vans,trucks and buses is set to peak this decade despite the projected surge in the number of vehicles on the roads by 2030,especially in emerging and developing countries.At th

59、e same time,aviation demand is set to nearly double from 3.5 trillion passenger kilometres(pkm)in 2022 to 6.7 trillion pkm in 2030(9%CAGR).Shipping demand similarly rises from 124 trillion tonne kilometres(tkm)to 145 trillion tkm(2%CAGR)over the same period,according to the IEAs recently updated Net

60、 Zero Roadmap.Against the backdrop of increasing transport demand,sustainable fuels will play a critical role in decarbonising the aviation and shipping sectors.Even as batteries and electric motors become viable in aviation and maritime applications,they are likely to be limited to smaller aircraft

61、 and vessels with shorter transit ranges,given limitations in battery energy and power density.Sustainable aviation fuels are increasingly becoming part of the aviation fuel mix,while orders for new ships are showing a trend towards alternative fuels.When e-kerosene is produced to complement sustain

62、able biofuels in aviation,a non-negligible amount of e-gasoline is produced as a by-product.It could be blended into the motor gasoline pool or used for petrochemicals.The production of e-diesel is also possible.The drop-in nature of some e-fuels means that,alongside biofuels,they could help reduce

63、emissions from the current vehicle stock and speed up the decarbonisation of road transport with only limited or no investments in distribution and end-use infrastructure.It could also help alleviate concerns over the security of supply of critical minerals needed for battery manufacturing.Despite l

64、imited deployment today,the number of announced low-emission e-fuels projects is increasing at a rapid rate.More than 200 projects are currently under development around the world,but the majority of them are still in early stages.The slow uptake of low-emission e-fuels is a consequence of a wide co

65、st gap with incumbent fossil fuels and other already commercially available low-emission alternatives,such as biofuels.If low-emission e-fuels are to make a meaningful contribution to emissions reductions in energy transitions,a rapid scale up is needed during this decade.This study is not a scenari

66、o analysis,but a techno-economic assessment of a family of emerging e-fuel technologies.It assesses the implications in terms of needed cost reductions,resources and infrastructure investments of an assumed ambitious goal of achieving a 10%share of e-fuels in aviation and shipping by 2030.Chapter 2

67、provides an overview of the demand trends in transport and discusses the supply potential of biofuels.Chapter 3 reviews the current status of e-fuel technologies and provides an outlook to 2030 based on announced projects.It also reviews the policy environment relevant for low-emission e-fuels The R

68、ole of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 1.Introduction PAGE|12 IEA.CC BY 4.0.development.With the high cost of e-fuels currently the largest impediment to their deployment,Chapter 4 focuses on factors that contribute to the steep cost of e-fuels and on opportunities for reducing them by 20

69、30.Chapter 5 analyses the impacts of an accelerated deployment of low-emission e-fuels for aviation and shipping during this decade,while Chapter 6 outlines the resource needs associated with such deployment.Finally,Chapter 7 discusses policy implications of the analysis and outlines possible next s

70、teps to enable an accelerated deployment.The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 2.Decarbonisation trends PAGE|13 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Chapter 2.Decarbonisation trends Transport fuel demand Global oil demand is forecast to peak this decade as energy transitions gather pace and transport fuel

71、 demand growth slows.Led by continued increases in air travel and petrochemical feedstock uptake,total oil consumption(excluding biofuels)is nevertheless forecast to rise to 102 mb/d by 2030,5 mb/d above 2022 levels.Some economies,notably the Peoples Republic of China(hereafter,“China”)and India,wil

72、l continue to register growth throughout the forecast.By contrast,oil demand in advanced economies may reach a peak this year a result of the sweeping impact of improvements in vehicle efficiencies and electrification.Figure 2.1 Annual oil demand growth,2022-2030 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Other transport d

73、emand includes aviation,marine and rail.Source:IEA(2023),Oil 2023 Analysis and forecast to 2028,extended through 2030.Oil demand used as a transport fuel is set to decline from 2026 due to efficiency improvements and a rapid uptake of hybrid and EVs and increased biofuels use.The pace of change vari

74、es across different transport modes and depends on the potential for direct electrification.Global road transport fuel demand,accounting for nearly half of total oil consumption,is forecast to decrease from 2024.The proliferation of vehicle efficiency improvements along with surging sales of hybrid

75、and electric vehicles are driving down average fuel consumption and CO emissions from the road transport sector.In 2023,nearly one in five cars sold were electric,an increase of roughly 35%from the year before.If the pace of growth in EV sales over the-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.52022202320242025202620

76、27202820292030mb/dTotal oilRoad transportOther transportOther oilThe Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 2.Decarbonisation trends PAGE|14 IEA.CC BY 4.0.past two years is sustained through 2030,CO emissions from cars can be put on a path in line the NZE Scenario.Projected oil consumpti

77、on for 2030 would be 7.5 mb/d higher without the savings from new EVs and efficiency improvements since 2022,and a further 0.5 mb/d without additional biofuels production.Post-pandemic changes in consumer behaviour provide additional demand reductions,as hybrid working and video conferencing have be

78、come established for some business sectors in advanced economies.Figure 2.2 Impact of EVs and efficiencies on total transport oil demand,2022-2030 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA(2023),Oil 2023 Analysis and forecast to 2028.By contrast,global air traffic is expected to complete its sharp post-Covid rebound

79、 before the end of 2024.Thereafter,structurally increasing demand for long-distance travel,strongly associated with higher GDP in middle-income countries,will remain a pillar of overall growth.Total jet fuel demand will rise by 2 mb/d between 2022 and 2030,but a substantial improvement in aircraft f

80、uel efficiencies means that it will take until 2027 to exceed 2019 levels.While global air traffic had recovered to virtually match pre-pandemic activity by the end of 2023,overall jet/kerosene demand remained 7%lower.This reflects substantial changes in fleet composition since 2019,with newer aircr

81、aft typically using 20-30%less fuel than the models being replaced.Oil used for marine bunkers is expected to increase by a further 300 kb/d through 2030,in line with growth in economic activity and trade.Efficiency gains,spurred by progressively tighter measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,w

82、ill nevertheless temper demand growth.To further reduce road transport and air travel,expansion of high-speed rail networks should be implemented.While rail is currently the least emissions-intensive mode of passenger transport,further electrification of diesel operations 50 55 60 65 702022202320242

83、02520262027202820292030mb/dTotal transport demandAdditional biofuelsEfficiency savingsEV savingsThe Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 2.Decarbonisation trends PAGE|15 IEA.CC BY 4.0.wherever viable,as well as the use of biodiesel blends or hydrogen,would be needed to get on track wit

84、h the NZE Scenario.Tracking transport decarbonisation Aviation From 2010 to 2019,average fuel efficiency per revenue tonne kilometre(rtk)equivalent travelled improved by 1.8%per year thanks to the introduction of more efficient aircraft and engines,with gains over the decade nearly reaching the UNs

85、International Civil Aviation Organizations(ICAO)aspirational goal of 2%per annum through 2050.In addition to technical efficiency advances in engine and airframe designs,improvements in payload and traffic efficiency(i.e.the weight of cargo and number of passengers carried per aircraft)have also con

86、tributed to reducing the energy intensity of aircraft operation.However,efficiency gains have not kept up with demand growth,which rose at an average rate of over 5%annually between 2010 and 2019.Further efficiency progress was made during the Covid-19 pandemic,when a number of aircraft were retired

87、 and replaced by newer models typically using 20-30%less fuel.Currently,demand for aviation fuel is dominated by jet kerosene,while sustainable aviation fuel(SAF)accounts for less than 0.1%of all fuels consumed.Manufacturers and operators are increasingly testing flights that are entirely fuelled by

88、 SAF,which can be deployed in current infrastructure,engines and aircraft with minor adjustments to fuel delivery equipment.However,planned production capacities will provide just 1-2%of jet fuel demand by 2027.International shipping The energy efficiency of ships is regulated by the International C

89、onvention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships(MARPOL),Annex VI.For new ships,the Energy Efficiency Design Index(EEDI)needs to meet criteria that get more stringent over time,up to a reduction of emissions per unit of activity of 30%by 2025 compared to 2000-2010 levels.Similarly,existing ships

90、 are covered by the Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index(EEXI).In addition,from January 2023,the Carbon Intensity Indicator(CII)regulates the operation of ships with increasingly stringent requirements.It has been estimated that nearly three-quarters of newly built containerships and general cargo

91、ships already meet the post-2025 EEDI requirements,with energy savings of more than 50%.While low-emission fuels are going to play an increasing role in the marine sector,technological development and increased policy support will be needed to reduce dependency on fossil fuels in international shipp

92、ing.This particularly concerns bunker fuel transport to seaports,bunkering infrastructure and protocols,onboard storage The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 2.Decarbonisation trends PAGE|16 IEA.CC BY 4.0.tanks,fuel delivery systems,engines and emissions after-treatment and,cruciall

93、y,training and safety in the use of the new fuels.Slow stock turnover is due to the long vessel lifetimes,at around 30 years on average but varying from 25 years for containerships to as much as 35 years for general cargo vessels.The current average age of containerships in service is around 14 year

94、s,12 years for bulk carriers and 20 years for oil tankers,according to UNCTAD.Those three ship types taken together make up two-thirds of international shipping emissions,according to the IMO.This means near-term innovation,optimisation of ship design to allow for easy retrofitting,and zero-emission

95、 technology adoption are critical to putting international shipping on an ambitious emissions reduction track.Road transport Private cars and vans were responsible for more than 25%of global oil use and around 10%of global energy-related CO emissions in 2022.Emissions from light-duty vehicles(LDVs)w

96、ill need to fall by around 6%each year through 2030 to get on track with the NZE Scenario.EVs are the key technology to decarbonise road transport.Passenger EVs sales surged by around 55%in 2022 and 35%in 2023,to more than 18%of all new cars sold.If the level of growth in EV sales posted over the pa

97、st two years is sustained until 2030,CO emissions from cars would align with a pathway towards the NZE Scenario.However,electric vehicles are not yet a global phenomenon.Outside of China,sales in developing and emerging economies have been slow to pick up due to the relatively high purchase price of

98、 an EV and lack of charging infrastructure.CO emissions from heavy-duty vehicles(HDVs),including trucks and buses,need to peak rapidly and start declining in the coming decade to reach NZE Scenario milestones.HDV fuel economy standards and zero-emission vehicle mandates need to be adopted,and those

99、that exist strengthened and harmonised to decarbonise the sector in parallel with policies that enable the supporting EV charging infrastructure.Electric and hydrogen fuel-cell HDVs need to be deployed now to enable emissions reductions in the 2020s and 2030s.Aligning with the NZE Scenario will requ

100、ire a drop in emissions of 15%by 2030 relative to their current level,declining at roughly 2%per year.Biofuel supply potential Liquid biofuels play a critical role in decarbonising transport because they can reduce emissions in hard to abate sectors such shipping,aviation and long-haul trucking,and

101、are compatible with existing infrastructure.However,the availability of sustainable feedstock will limit supply from current technologies.Biofuel production in 2022 stood at 4.3 EJ,representing nearly 4%of global road transport The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 2.Decarbonisation

102、 trends PAGE|17 IEA.CC BY 4.0.fuel demand.The vast majority,about 90%,of these fuels were produced from sugar cane,corn,soybean oil,rapeseed oil and palm oil.The remaining 10%was produced from waste and residue feedstocks such as used cooking oil and animal fats.Biofuel demand is forecast to expand

103、to 5.3 EJ,representing 6%of forecasted road transport energy demand in 2030,driven by policies and planned project additions.Road transport accounted for nearly all liquid biofuels use in 2022,and its share declines only slightly to 98%by 2030.1 Figure 2.3 Liquid biofuel annual supply potential by f

104、eedstock type and technology readiness level,2022-2030 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:The IEAs TRL scale aims to cover all relevant steps of the innovation journey,from concept to market maturity,and may differ from the scale used by other research institutes.Total supply potential assumes all 100 EJ of the IE

105、As estimated sustainable bioenergy supply were converted to liquid fuels.Total liquid fuel supply is near 60 EJ when accounting for conversion losses.Sources:Existing and forecast growth from IEA(2022),Renewables 2022,sustainable crop potential and other organic feedstocks from IEA(2022),World Energ

106、y Outlook 2022,waste and residue potential and new,compatible feedstocks from the World Economic Forums Clean Skies for Tomorrow Coalition.TRLs from IEA(2023),ETP Clean Energy Technology Guide.Those feedstocks most readily available for liquid biofuels include vegetable oils,sugars,starches and incr

107、eased collection of residues fats,oils and greases.All these feedstocks are already used today and can be processed using commercial technologies.However,supplies of this type are relatively limited,and could likely offset an additional 3%of transport fuel demand by 2030,beyond existing and forecast

108、 biofuel production.In some markets,such as the European Union,these feedstocks have already been capped in transport policies because of sustainability concerns.Globally,feedstock supplies of this type would bring total liquid biofuel supply potential to 9 EJ by 2030 at production costs between 1 F

109、orecast biofuel production values are based on the main case in the Renewable Energy Market Update June 2023 and extended to 2030 from 2028 using the global production growth trend from 2022 to 2028.0 10 20 30 40 50 60Supply potential(EJ)Other organic feedstocks(agricultural and forestryresidues,mun

110、icipal solid waste,short rotation woodycrops and forestry plantations)New,compatible feedstocks(e.g.grown on marginalland,or as cover crops)Waste and residue oils(used cooking oil,animal fats andother residue oils)Sustainable crop potential(intensification of currentcrops such as corn,sugar and soyo

111、il)Forecast growth 2022-30Production 2022TR-9 to 10TR-4 to 8The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 2.Decarbonisation trends PAGE|18 IEA.CC BY 4.0.USD 25/GJ to USD 50/GJ for road transport(USD 15-25/GJ for fossil fuel gasoline and diesel),and USD 60/GJ for aviation(USD 20/GJ for fossi

112、l fuel jet fuel).Expanding biofuels beyond 9 EJ would require other feedstocks that are available in larger quantities and do not compete for land resources for food and feed production.These include new feedstocks compatible with existing technologies that can be grown on marginal land or as cover

113、crops.Current estimates stand at near 8 EJ of liquid biofuel potential.However,these growing techniques have not been widely adopted for biofuel production,come at higher costs,require strict sustainability criteria and dedicated policy support,and there may also be competition for other bioenergy u

114、ses.Other organic feedstocks such as agricultural and forestry residues,as well as municipal solid waste,offer additional supply potential but are not yet being deployed at scale and compete with other bioenergy uses.The opportunity for expansion is substantial,with an estimated 40 EJ of liquid biof

115、uel potential.However,realising this potential depends on processing woody and fibrous residues using technologies like cellulosic ethanol and biomass gasification.Considerable investments in these technologies and supply chains will be required to commercialise and deploy at scale.Although spending

116、 on these technologies is accelerating globally,including commercial scale projects,the total forecast production remains small.Globally,biofuel projects that aim to use new and compatible feedstocks and woody residues are projected to contribute only 0.2 EJ of additional supply by 2030,a mere 4%of

117、the global biofuel production.In addition,there is competition for other organic feedstocks for biogas production,as solid bioenergy for heat and power applications,so liquid biofuels would only garner a share of this potential.That share will depend on mandates,costs and the relative value of the f

118、eedstocks in producing different forms of energy.In some instances,technology can also be used to shift feedstocks from one biofuel product to another.For example,ethanol accounts for half of biofuel production today and is used in gasoline vehicles.As vehicle efficiency and EVs start to reduce moto

119、r gasoline demand to 2030,a surplus of ethanol production could develop if ethanol blend rates remain low and blending mandates do not increase.Alcohol-to-jet offers a way to convert ethanol into sustainable aviation fuel.Hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids(HEFA)facilities can also be built and op

120、erated or retrofitted to vary renewable diesel/bio-jet production using the same feedstocks.Biofuels hold considerable promise for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector,but they are likely to be complemented by other efforts such as low-emission e-fuels.Moreover,much of the exist

121、ing and planned biofuels production is dedicated to road transport through 2030.Expanding biofuel production for road,aviation and marine consistent with a net zero pathway would The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 2.Decarbonisation trends PAGE|19 IEA.CC BY 4.0.require near 6 EJ o

122、f additional supply,which would require all of the IEAs estimated sustainable supply from agriculture and residue fats,oils and greases commonly used today,plus significant investment in new agricultural practices and technologies to access more of the readily available feedstocks.Stringent supply a

123、nd demand policies with strict sustainability criteria would also be needed to drive investment and ensure sustainable feedstock use.The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 3.Status and outlook PAGE|20 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Chapter 3.Status and outlook What are e-fuels?E-fuels are fuels obtai

124、ned from electrolytic hydrogen.E-fuels are low-emission fuels when their hydrogen is produced using low-emission electricity and any carbon inputs are obtained in a way that leads to low life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions.Various different fuel types can be produced along this basic route.The combi

125、nation of hydrogen with nitrogen produces ammonia,a gaseous chemical that is used today mainly as a precursor to fertilisers,but that also has application as a fuel.The combination with carbon opens the possibility to produce a wide range of products,from alcohols to ethers and from hydrocarbon fuel

126、s to lubricants.Different fuel products can be further categorised by their ease of use.Drop-in e-fuels such as e-kerosene,e-diesel and e-gasoline are compatible with existing refuelling infrastructure and can be blended with limited constraints with petroleum-derived counterparts.By contrast,altern

127、ative e-fuels such as e-ammonia and e-methanol require investments in distribution infrastructure and end-use equipment to enable their use in the transport sector.Figure 3.1 E-fuels and production routes considered in this report IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:E-fuels represent a subset of hydrogen-based fuels

128、,a category that also includes fuels obtained from hydrogen produced from fossil fuels with CCUS.Hydrogen-based fuelsE-fuelsHydrogen from electrolysisHydrogen from fossilfuels with CCUSSynthesiswith carbonSynthesiswith nitrogenSynthesiswith nitrogenAlternative e-fuelsDrop-in e-fuelsAmmoniaAmmoniaMet

129、hanolJet fuelGasolineThe Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 3.Status and outlook PAGE|21 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Electrolysis is the central component of an e-fuels process.It involves splitting water molecules into hydrogen and oxygen with an electric current and separating them into two prod

130、uct streams.Water electrolysers are based on a small number of technologies,including alkaline,proton exchange membrane(PEM),solid oxide electrolyser cell(SOEC)and anion exchange membrane(AEM)based systems.Alkaline technologies dominate the market today,although PEM solutions are also commercially a

131、vailable.SOEC and AEM electrolysers are currently in the demonstration phase,with the former at a large scale,and are expected to be commercialised soon.The production of e-fuels requires essentially four steps:production of hydrogen,capture of nitrogen(N)or carbon dioxide(CO),conversion of the feed

132、 gas into new molecules in a synthesis,and final upgrading of the raw product.Before the synthesis,the reactants(H and CO or N)need to be mixed in the right amounts to comply with the stoichiometric requirements of the downstream synthesis.Figure 3.2 Schematic illustration of the main components of

133、an e-fuels process IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:A dedicated syngas preparation step(indicated with a dashed line)is required for Fischer-Tropsch,but not for the methanol or the ammonia process.TRL refers to the IEA extended Technology Readiness Level scale.The production of liquid hydrocarbon fuels via the Fi

134、scher-Tropsch(FT)route requires an additional syngas preparation step that converts the CO feedstock to carbon monoxide(CO),a more readily usable form of carbon required by the technology.Several approaches are possible,all having a relatively low technology readiness level(TRL)today.Other main unit

135、 processes required to produce e-fuels are all commercially available at large scale.However,integration of these unit processes into a fully operational plant currently has a low technology readiness level,with the largest plants represented by large prototypes(TRL 6).ElectrolysisCaptureSynthesisUp

136、gradingElectricityWaterE-fuelOHN/COSyngas preparationAir,or COpoint sourceIntegration TRL 6The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 3.Status and outlook PAGE|22 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Current status The use of electrolytic hydrogen to obtain hydrogen-based products is not a new technology.The p

137、roduction of ammonia from water and air using grid electricity or hydropower was common in the first half of the 20th century,with several plants having a capacity above 100 megawatt electrical(MWe).However,a widespread switch to more cost competitive production based on unabated fossil fuels(mostly

138、 steam reformers using natural gas,but also coal gasification in China)resulted in the decommissioning of these plants.The last plants to seize their operations were in Zimbabwe with 100 MWe of electrolysis capacity decommissioned in 2015 and Egypt with 165 MWe of electrolysis capacity decommissione

139、d in 2019.Today only one plant has survived this technology shift:Industrias Cachimayo in Peru.The plant has been in operation since 1965,producing around 50 t of ammonia/d based on a 20 MWe electrolyser.The need to decarbonise fossil fuel use has led to a renewed interest towards the technology,thi

140、s time powered by variable renewables.The majority of the projects that are currently in operation are small-scale demonstration projects,such as the ETOGAS pilot plant(Germany),using a 6 MWe electrolyser to produce methane.However,in the case of ammonia and methanol production,there are a couple of

141、 noteworthy exceptions due to their already existing use in the chemical industry.In China,the Ningxia Solar Hydrogen Project started operation in 2021.It is the worlds second largest electrolysis project in operation with 150 MWe capacity to produce methanol.The largest plant in operation today to

142、produce ammonia,using only renewable electricity,is a 20 MWe project that Iberdrola started operating in Spain in 2022.However,in this case,hydrogen from electrolysis is blended with hydrogen from unabated natural gas before it enters ammonia production.There are currently more than 70 projects in o

143、peration globally to produce hydrogen from electrolysis that is then used to obtain hydrogen-based products,which could be used as e-fuels.The vast majority of these projects are at demonstration scale.The total production from all these projects is very small,resulting in less than 20 kt(kt H2)prod

144、uction,2 the majority of which is used in the production of methanol and ammonia for industrial applications.Announced projects Despite limited deployment today,the number of announced projects is increasing at a rapid speed.If all projects currently under development were to be realised on time,the

145、 supply of hydrogen from low-emission electricity for e-fuels production 2 Quantities of e-fuels in this section are given in hydrogen equivalent terms,i.e.the“stoichiometric”hydrogen requirement to produce the e-fuel.The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 3.Status and outlook PAGE|2

146、3 IEA.CC BY 4.0.could reach almost 14 Mt by 2030.3 This represents nearly one-third of the potential production of all announced low-emission hydrogen projects,which accounts for 38 Mt.However,the majority of projects(representing nearly 8 Mt of hydrogen)are at very early stages of development and o

147、nly a small fraction(around 4%)have reached a firm final investment decision(FID).Without further policy action to close the cost gap and to stimulate demand,producers of low-emission e-fuels will not secure sufficient off-takers to underpin large-scale investments,jeopardising the realisation of th

148、e current project pipeline.Figure 3.3 Global electrolytic hydrogen production that could be used to produce e-fuels by fuel and status based on announced projects,2030 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes.FID=final investment decision;FT=Fischer-Tropsch.For ammonia and methanol,the figure includes all announced proj

149、ects for the production of these products,including projects aiming to utilise them in fuel applications,in industrial applications,without a disclosed final use or for multiple purposes.Source:IEA(2023),Hydrogen Production and Infrastructure Projects Database.Of the total potential e-fuel supply fr

150、om announced projects,ammonia accounts for 90%,followed by FT fuels(5%),methanol(4%)and methane(1%).The high share of ammonia among announced projects suggests that the main driver for the production of hydrogen-based products using electrolytic hydrogen is coming from ammonias industrial applicatio

151、ns instead of its potential use as a fuel.This is a sign of the fertiliser industrys readiness to absorb a significant share of the supply as a drop-in feedstock for its existing processes.Around one-quarter of the capacity of projects aiming to produce e-ammonia specifically target its use in the f

152、ertiliser industry.The lower risk presented by this application means their share 3 This would fall to below 6 Mt if early-stage projects would be excluded(e.g.projects where only a co-operation agreement among stakeholders has been announced).02468101214By fuelBy statusMt H2AmmoniaSynthetic methano

153、lSynthetic methaneFT fuelsOperationalFID/ConstructionFeasibilityEarly stagesProductStatusThe Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 3.Status and outlook PAGE|24 IEA.CC BY 4.0.of projects that have at least taken FID is double(8%)that of the overall pool of projects.In addition,ammonia is

154、 already a globally traded commodity,with an operating market in fertiliser applications and infrastructure already in place.The potential to trade low-emission e-ammonia in a global market is another important driver for projects development.Ammonia trade is also attractive for its potential applic

155、ations as low-emission e-fuel in power generation and shipping,since ammonia in many cases is the cheapest low-emission e-fuel when accounting for transport and storage costs.Its use as a hydrogen carrier,converted back into hydrogen at the destination,has also attracted some interest,but this invol

156、ves an energy loss in the reconversion that makes the economics of the supply chain more uncertain.Export-oriented projects account for nearly 60%of the announced capacity,but only two projects(the NEOM Green Hydrogen Project in Saudi Arabia and a joint project between Scatec and ACME in Oman)have t

157、aken a FID and started construction.Role of fossil CO emissions in the production of e-fuels CO that is used to produce e-fuels is ultimately released back into the atmosphere,and therefore it is important to consider the overall life-cycle emissions of different e-fuel production pathways.Emissions

158、 reduction of e-fuels compared to relevant fossil fuels depends on the source of the CO(biogenic,air-captured or fossil),the emissions intensity of the product or service the fuel is displacing,and the emissions intensity of the energy used for the conversion process.For example,e-fuels made from bi

159、ogenic or air-captured CO can potentially provide full emissions reduction,making them the primary production pathway that is consistent with achieving net zero emissions by mid-century.By contrast,when made from fossil CO,e-fuels can only reduce part of the systems emissions,either from the plant w

160、here the CO is captured,or through displacing an emissions-intensive fuel.This is provided that the CO emissions associated with capturing,transporting,and converting CO are lower overall than those emitted during production of the displaced fuel.Based on project announcements,there are plans for ar

161、ound 15 large-scale(over 100 000 t CO per year)capture projects on industrial facilities targeting the use of fossil CO in the production of e-fuels.Using fossil CO from industrial sources could play a transitional role to initiate e-fuel production as supply from biogenic sources and direct air cap

162、ture scales up over time.To improve the competitiveness of e-fuels compared to their fossil counterparts,projects are likely to require policy support.While fossil-based CO2 feedstock sources could initially benefit from some support to enable early market creation and reduce technology risks,e-fuel

163、 policies The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 3.Status and outlook PAGE|25 IEA.CC BY 4.0.The fact that ammonia does not need carbon in its production leads to simplified supply chains and lower production costs making it an attractive early mover.The production of other low-emissi

164、on e-fuels needs to consider the availability of carbon feedstock(notably from biogenic sources)in addition to renewable energy resources in siting of the projects.These additional limitations also explain the lower number of projects under development and their smaller average scale,compared to amm

165、onia projects.In the case of methanol,several shipping companies have committed to building methanol fuelled ships.Projects linked to existing applications in industry account for nearly one-third of the total potential production from all announced projects,with more than 15%having at least taken F

166、ID.From the projects targeting fuel applications(mostly in shipping)only 1%have at least taken FID.In the case of methane,despite its use as an industrial feedstock,most of its existing demand is coming from fuel applications.The vast majority of projects under development target its use as a fuel,n

167、ormally injected into gas grids,with a very minor share(much less than 1%)that have taken FID.Geographic distribution Large-scale ammonia production plants that use fossil fuels are mostly located in China,the Russian Federation(hereafter,“Russia”),the Middle East,the United States,the European Unio

168、n and India.Commonly,these plants are located in regions with good availability of fossil fuels resources(coal in China and India and natural gas in Russia,the Middle East and the United States),minimising the need to build fuel supply chains.These regions are also responsible for the largest demand

169、 of ammonia,although there is some imbalance between production and demand,which leads to ammonia being traded around the world(amounting to around 10%of total production).should take into account overall life-cycle emissions.Robust,transparent and mutually agreed emissions accounting methods need t

170、o be in place to quantify emissions allocation and reduction and avoid double counting.This is particularly relevant for internationally traded low-emission fuels.In any event,fossil-based facilities investing in CO2 capture for e-fuel production today may need to evaluate future options for that ca

171、ptured CO2 to eventually be permanently stored.The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 3.Status and outlook PAGE|26 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Figure 3.4 Map of announced projects for low-emission e-ammonia production IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Map also includes announced projects starting after 2030.Sour

172、ce:IEA(2023),Hydrogen Production and Infrastructure Projects Database.The development of e-ammonia projects follows a similar logic as large fossil-based production today(proximity to best resources)but leads to a very different geographical distribution.The biggest projects under development are lo

173、cated in areas with beneficial combinations of solar PV and wind resources,such as desertic areas in the Middle East,Africa and Australia,with other large projects located in Chile and the United States.China has a significant number of smaller projects in much more advanced stages of development,th

174、anks to a combination of good resources and proximity to large demand centres.When it comes to carbon-containing e-fuels,the need to source CO feedstock presents an additional supply chain challenge that is also reflected in the geographical distribution of announced projects,showing a strong concen

175、tration of projects close to major industrial centres in Europe and the United States,and some large developments in South Africa.In Europe,the large number of announced projects is also highly influenced by policy drivers,such as mandates for the use of low-emission fuels in aviation and emissions

176、standards in shipping.The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 3.Status and outlook PAGE|27 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Figure 3.5 Map of announced projects for carbon-containing low-emission e-fuels production IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Map also includes announced projects starting after 2030.Source:IEA(20

177、23),Hydrogen Production and Infrastructure Projects Database.Policy environment Low-emission e-fuels are gaining policy recognition as a decarbonisation solution,notably in the aviation and marine sectors.As of 2023,e-fuels can participate in existing regulations and tax incentives aimed at increasi

178、ng demand and supply of low-emission transport fuels that cover nearly half of aviation and one-fifth of marine fuel demand.For instance,low-emission e-fuels can satisfy the EUs Renewable Energy Directive and are eligible for tax credits via the US Inflation Reduction Act.There are,however,only a fe

179、w examples of dedicated low-emission e-fuel requirements.E-fuels are also included in many national hydrogen strategies.International commitments The global maritime and aviation sectors have adopted net zero emission ambitions,with low-emission e-fuels potentially playing a key role in internationa

180、l organisations strategies.In 2022,184 states set a long-term global aspiration net zero carbon emission goal for international aviation by 2050 through the UNs International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO).According to ICAO,e-fuels could constitute 3%to 17%of aviation fuel by 2035 and 8%to 55%by

181、2050 depending on technology development and policy implementation.Although ICAOs Carbon Offsetting Reduction Scheme for International Aviation(CORSIA)programme includes sustainable aviation fuels(and so low-emission e-fuels),as yet there are no default life-cycle GHG intensity values for different

182、e-fuel production pathways.The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 3.Status and outlook PAGE|28 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Similarly,the International Maritime Organization(IMO)in 2023 set a level of ambition of reaching net zero GHG emissions from international shipping close to 2050 and have at

183、least 5%,and striving for 10%,of shipping energy to be net zero or near net zero by 2030.New policies supporting these targets are planned by 2027,to complement existing measures.The IMO further includes low-emission e-fuels as a technology pathway for reducing international shipping emissions.Suppl

184、y and demand regulations and incentives Existing regulations and tax incentives aimed at increasing supply and demand of low-emission transport fuels often incorporate e-fuels to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,although only a few have dedicated low-emission e-fuel targets.Domestic programmes often

185、feature blending mandates,renewable content requirements,and GHG intensity reduction targets.Globally,nearly half of aviation and one-fifth of marine fuel demand are already covered by such policies.Although dedicated e-fuel requirements mean that only 0.3%of total aviation and marine fuel demand is

186、 mandated to come from low-emission e-fuels by 2030.Figure 3.6 Aviation and marine fuel pools with existing and proposed regulations and incentives that allow for,or mandate,low-emission e-fuel use in advanced and emerging economies,2022-2030 IEA.CC BY 4.0.*The blue/yellow shaded area includes polic

187、ies that mandate e-fuels in regions that already allow for e-fuels.Notes:Regulations and incentives include supply and demand mandates and financial incentives for production and facility construction.In most cases e-fuels may be used to comply with existing regulations but are not mandated specific

188、ally,nor do they receive any additional financial incentive.In advanced economies the EUs Renewable Energy Directive and member states transpositions of it allow for e-fuels and often support via double counting.The ReFuelEU aviation and maritime proposed mandates also allow for e-fuels.The US IRA p

189、rovides tax credits for clean fuels and facilities to create those fuels,including e-fuels.Canadas Clean Fuel Regulation also allows for e-fuels to comply with its regulation.Brazil is the only emerging economy proposing aviation GHG reduction targets that would allow for e-fuels.Only the EU and its

190、 member countries plan to mandate e-fuels by providing targets with penalties for not meeting those targets.Carbon pricing,such as the EU Emission Trading System(aviation and marine fuels),Canadas carbon pricing system and Californias cap and trade programme 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Advanced

191、EconomiesEmergingEconomiesAllow e-fuels-planned by 2030Allow e-fuels-existing policiesMandate e-fuels-existingMandate e-fuels-planned by 2030*No policy coverageShare aviation fuel pool0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%AdvancedeconomiesEmergingeconomiesShare maritime fuel poolThe Role of E-fuels in De

192、carbonising Transport Chapter 3.Status and outlook PAGE|29 IEA.CC BY 4.0.also help by closing the cost gap between fossil fuels and low-emission e-fuels.Many other policies may influence e-fuel adoption such as vehicle efficiency and vehicle CO2 requirements,air pollution regulations and fuel taxati

193、on rates.These policies are not considered here,but could form part of broader package of policies to support low-emission e-fuels.In the United States,sustainable aviation fuels obtained from electrolytic hydrogen are eligible for several tax credits via the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA),low-carbon

194、fuel standard credits and can generate Renewable Identification Numbers(RINs)under the Renewable Fuel Standard(RFS)programme.In theory,a single litre of low-emission e-kerosene could gain credit under all programmes with a combined value of USD 85/GJ.4 The actual value e-fuel producers will realise

195、depends on finalised IRA credits and RIN prices,and low-carbon fuel standard(LCFS)credit prices which fluctuate.If realised,credit stacking could prove a powerful incentive to produce low-emission e-fuels,despite the lack of any regulated requirement.Canadas Clean Fuel Regulation also sets GHG inten

196、sity reduction targets for the transport sector helping stimulate demand.While low-emission e-fuels are one compliance option,they do not receive any dedicated support.Figure 3.7 Estimated credit values in the United States and penalty value in Germany for SAF made from low-emission e-kerosene,2023

197、IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:The United States includes the California LCFS at USD 100/t,D4 RIN prices at USD 0.45/litre based on the 2018-2023 average to 14 November 2023,the IRA credits for SEC.40B(SAF credit),SEC.45V(hydrogen credit),SEC.45 Q(carbon capture credit)based on an e-fuel with carbon intensity

198、of 15 g CO2/MJ,made using hydrogen of less than 0.45 kg CO2/kg H2.Germanys penalty from its greenhouse gas reduction quota which includes a 2%target for renewable fuels from non-biological origins by 2030.4 Assuming SAF based e-fuel made using hydrogen with a carbon intensity of less than 0.45 kg CO

199、2-eq/kg H2 and a total carbon intensity of 15 g CO2-eq/MJ.0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90United StatesGermanyValue(USD/GJ)PenaltyIRA-carboncapture creditCalifornia LCFSIRA-SAF creditRFSIRA-hydrogencreditThe Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 3.Status and outlook PAGE|30 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Th

200、e European Union has set a dedicated e-fuel targets by 2030 via its ReFuelEU Aviation and FuelEU Maritime legislation.The aviation proposal targets a minimum 0.7%share in 2030-2031 and a 1.2%average low-emission e-fuel share over the time period.The target increases progressively to 35%by 2050,while

201、 the maritime proposal targets a 2%low-emission e-fuel share by 2034.E-fuels can also compete with other options to meet requirements under the Renewable Energy Directive.Within Europe,Germany has set a more stringent target of 2%SAF from low-emission e-kerosene by 2030,with a USD 75/GJ penalty for

202、non-compliance.In Brazil,the Fuel of Future Program includes a 1%GHG reduction target for aviation by 2027 climbing to 10%by 2037,and low-emission e-fuels are one option to meet the targets.As of 2023,Brazil was the only emerging economy with low-emission transport fuel policies that allows for e-fu

203、els.The United States,India,European Union,Japan,and Canada have incorporated e-fuels into their hydrogen strategies and roadmaps to bolster research and development.Brazil is also formulating a regulatory framework for low-emission e-fuels.Globally however,low-emission fuels are not expanding at a

204、rate consistent with NZE Scenario ambitions.Table 3.1 Country-level transport policies that allow for or mandate e-fuels,2023 Region Policy name Language on e-fuels European Union Renewable Energy Directive(II and III)RED III sets a combined target for e-fuels and advanced biofuels of 5.5%in 2030 of

205、 which 1%must be low-emission e-fuels.It also recommends a 1.2%RFNBO5 target for maritime and to include double counting.European Union ReFuelEU Aviation ReFuelEU includes a sub-target for low-emission e-fuels of 1.2%on average over 2030-31 with an annual 0.7%minimum in 2030-31,climbing to 35%by 205

206、0.European Union FuelEU Maritime FuelEU Maritime sets GHG intensity reduction targets with a sub-target for low-emission e-fuels of 2%by 2034,with double counting until 2034 Germany Law for the Further Development of the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Quota Sets aviation target of 0.5%low-emission e-fuel

207、requirements by 2026 and 2%by 2030.Transport GHG reduction targets can also be met with low-emission e-fuels and receive double credits.Finland,Lithuania and Portugal Finland sets a target of 10%for biofuels or biogas produced from select feedstocks or renewable fuels from non-biological origin.Thes

208、e fuels are worth twice as much 5 Renewable fuels of non-biological origin.The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 3.Status and outlook PAGE|31 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Region Policy name Language on e-fuels meeting the regulation.Lithuania requires 3.5%blending of advanced biofuels or biofuels

209、from non-biological origin by 2030.In Portugal advanced biofuels and renewable fuels from non-biological origins(low-emission e-fuels)have a 10%target by 2030.United States Inflation Reduction Act The IRA provides several credit options that low-emission e-fuel producers can apply for including the

210、Alternative Fuel and Low-Emission Aviation Technology competitive grant programme,the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Credit,and other programmes for CCUS and hydrogen production.Canada,California,Washington and Oregon Canada and these three US states all allow for low-emission e-fuels within their respec

211、tive low-carbon fuel and clean fuel programmes.California,Washington and Oregon low-carbon fuel programmes have varied between USD 22-206/t CO2.At the time of writing Canada had not published credit prices.Japan SAF goal Targeting 10%SAF by 2030 and low-emission e-fuels can participate.Brazil Future

212、 Fuel Brazils proposed SAF mandate would allow for low-emission e-fuels in theory,it is not yet in force.Technical standards and GHG emission guidelines To be utilised in current and future fuel systems and to comply with regulatory mandates,e-fuels must adhere to stringent standards for technical q

213、uality,safety and environmental impact,including GHG emissions.Carbon-containing e-fuels can be blended with existing fuels so long as they meet fuel quality and safety standards.In addition,ASTM has created a task force to develop specifications for 100%,unblended,e-fuels.Work is also ongoing to es

214、tablish fuel quality guidelines for non-blended e-fuels.However,some fuels,such as ammonia,require new quality and safety standards,which the IMO and ISO are currently developing.The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 3.Status and outlook PAGE|32 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Table 3.2 Status of int

215、ernational technical,safety and life-cycle GHG emissions standards for e-fuels Application Fuel and safety standards Life-cycle GHG emissions Aviation Would need to meet ASTM D7566 Annex A1 and Annex A5 or D1655.Life-cycle guidelines and e-fuel pathways under development.Marine No specific fuel path

216、ways.Marine fuels have used automotive diesel standards for HVO.(renewable diesel)EN 15940:2016 and EN 590 B7.Ammonia quality and safety standards under development.Interim Methanol Safety Guidelines MSC.1/Circ.1621.Specifications of methanol as a fuel for marine applications ISO/DIS 6583(Under deve

217、lopment)Products from petroleum,synthetic and renewable sources(marine fuels)ISO/FDIS 8216-1(Under development)Life-cycle guidelines,but no e-fuel pathway.MARPOL Annex VI also regulates CO,NOx and PM.Protocols and guidance for developing life-cycle GHG emissions estimates for e-fuels are pre-requisi

218、tes for broad deployment as low-emission transport fuels.The European Union,the United Kingdom,Canada,and US state level policies,such as Californias low-carbon fuel standard,already provide pathways and guidance for developing life-cycle GHG emission estimates for e-fuels.Japan also provides carbon

219、 intensity guidelines via its Recommended Guidelines for Greenhouse Gas and Carbon Intensity Accounting Frameworks for LNG/Hydrogen/Ammonia Projects.At the international level,CORSIA and the IMO provide guidance on developing life-cycle emission factors,but have yet to publish default values for e-f

220、uel pathways.ICAOs Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection is developing e-fuel life-cycle emission pathways.The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 4.Production costs PAGE|33 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Chapter 4.Production costs The cost of making low-emission e-fuels is determined by a nu

221、mber of factors,ranging from the price of electrolysers and electricity to heat integration opportunities and the value of by-products.An appropriate selection and development of a production site that has high-quality renewable resources can reduce costs already today,while technological learning a

222、nd synergies with biofuels production can lead to further reductions.The purpose of this chapter is to provide an overview on the main factors that influence the cost of e-fuels and opportunities to reduce them by 2030.Plant investment Electrolysis is the main component of an e-fuels plant.The capit

223、al cost for an installed electrolyser(including the equipment,gas treatment,balance of plant,and engineering,procurement and construction)ranges from USD 1 700/kW and USD 2 000/kW(for alkaline and PEM,respectively,based on data from industry and project developers).This is around a 9%year-on-year in

224、crease compared to the capital cost range in 2021.However,in Europe,some project developers have observed even higher inflation values,up to 40%in certain cases.Alkaline electrolysers manufactured in China are,in terms of CAPEX,much cheaper than those manufactured in Europe or North America,at aroun

225、d USD 750-1 300/kW for an installed electrolyser,and could be as low as USD 350/kW.The lower costs reflect cheaper labour costs and more developed supply chains for raw materials and components in China.6 In addition,a recent report pointed out that Chinese manufacturers are using lower technical st

226、andards in the equipment that they manufacture.For exports,adjustments need to be made to Chinese electrolysers to comply with standards in other countries,possibly leading to higher costs.By 2030,electrolyser costs are expected to fall significantly as deployment drives economies of scale,innovatio

227、n,standardisation,more competitive markets and lower financing costs.Based on announced projects,global installed electrolyser capacity could increase from around 1 GW in 2022 to 55 GW by 2025,and reach 175 GW in 2030.Assuming an 18%learning rate for electrolyser stacks and 5-12%for other components

228、,the cost of an installed electrolyser could be reduced by 50%by 2025 and 60%by 2030,reaching about USD 800/kWe.6 Source:“Electrolysis system CAPEX could drop 30%by 2025”,BloombergNEF,21 September 2022.The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 4.Production costs PAGE|34 IEA.CC BY 4.0.El

229、ectricity price Electricity prices play a decisive role in the cost of e-fuels.At USD 50/MWh,the cost contribution of the electricity price is already USD 25-35/GJ(USD 1 000-1 500/toe)depending on the end product,before considering any investments or other consumables.In addition,the amount of hours

230、 electricity is annually available plays an equally critical role as it directly influences the load factor of fuel production and therefore the contribution that plant investment has on the levelised fuel costs.The combination of price and availability is therefore a key consideration,which also de

231、pends greatly on whether electrolysers are connected directly to renewables,or to the electricity grid.Interest in connecting e-fuels production to electricity grids has been partly motivated by the increased penetration of variable renewable energy sources in the electricity markets that has led to

232、 low or even negative power prices and created demand for balancing services.Grid-connected electrolysers have been envisioned to operate during the low-price hours of the wholesale electricity market,converting cheap electricity to valuable low-emission fuels or chemicals and reducing curtailment n

233、eeds.Figure 4.1 Impact of electrolysers load factor on the levelised cost of e-kerosene at two different electricity and electrolyser prices IEA.CC BY 4.0 Notes:Load factor is measured as the average fuel output over a year,relative to the maximum fuel production capacity.Financial assumptions:the w

234、eighted average cost of capital(WACC)5%,economic life 25 years.Performance(all in LHV):electrolyser 69%,H-to-syncrude 57%,transport fuel mass yield from FT jet fuel refinery 85%,electricity consumption of compression and refining 540 kWh/t.CAPEX:RWGS reactor+FT synthesis+refinery USD 1 200/kWe.OPEX:

235、electrolysis 1.5%/yr of CAPEX,synthesis 3%/yr of CAPEX.Consumables:CO feedstock USD 30/t,water USD 2/m3.0 25 50 75 100 12510%30%50%70%90%USD/GJElectrolysers load factorElectricity:USD 30/MWhElectrolyser:USD 800/kWeElectricity:USD 50/MWhElectrolyser:USD 2 000/kWeThe Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising T

236、ransport Chapter 4.Production costs PAGE|35 IEA.CC BY 4.0.However,the cost of e-fuels is highly sensitive to the electrolysers load factor,and if the amount of annually available low-price hours in the wholesale electricity market is small,the contribution of the plant investment to the production c

237、ost is high.Assuming a constant average electricity price,the levelised cost of e-fuels starts to increase very quickly(see Figure 4.1)when the plants load factor drops below 40%.Rather than focusing on exploiting small amounts of low-cost hours,grid-connected production of e-fuels should identify e

238、lectricity markets with low median wholesale electricity prices coupled with low grid CO emissions.The impact of high price hours can be minimised by switching the plant to minimum load or completely shutting down the electrolysers while relying on a buffer storage that keeps supplying hydrogen to t

239、he less flexible fuel synthesis.Impact of electricity source on GHG emissions of e-fuels The life-cycle GHG emissions of e-fuels depends on the carbon intensity of the electricity used and source of CO feedstock(for the latter see Chapter 3,box“Role of fossil CO emissions in the production of e-fuel

240、s”).When using low-emission electricity(e.g.from renewables or nuclear power plants)and assuming zero life-cycle emissions from the carbon feedstock(e.g.from biogenic CO),GHG emissions of the produced e-fuels are at the level of 2-25 g CO/MJ,or 75-98%lower than emissions from fossil fuels they repla

241、ce.GHG emissions related to the production of selected e-fuels by electricity source IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:Only electricity-based emissions are considered in this figure for e-fuels.CO feedstock is assumed to be from a high-concentration biogenic source.The range for fossil fuel emissions is based on

242、life-cycle emissions of liquid hydrocarbon fuels at 90 g CO/MJ,and on methanol and ammonia at 110 g CO/MJ.0 100 200 300 400 500FT-fuelsMethanolAmmoniag CO/MJGrid(China)Grid(EU)Grid(Brazil)Solar PVNuclearWindHydroFossil fuel emissionsThe Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 4.Production

243、 costs PAGE|36 IEA.CC BY 4.0.However,using grid electricity can lead to very high emissions.For example,operating an electrolyser with Chinas average 2022 grid emissions(594 g CO/kWh)would lead to e-fuels having 3-4 times higher emissions than of comparable fossil fuels.With the EUs 2022 average gri

244、d emissions(252 g CO/kWh),hydrogen-based fuel emissions would still be slightly above of comparable fossil fuels.However,with Brazils average emissions(74 g CO/MJ)in 2022,hydrogen-based fuels would provide 45-70%GHG reduction compared to equivalent fossil fuels.In practice,emissions related to the p

245、roduction of e-fuels with grid-connected electrolysers can be either higher or lower than a value estimated from average grid intensities.For example,a plant can choose to minimise its production during times of high grid carbon intensity,which would reduce average emissions(but would also reduce th

246、e plants load factor).On the other hand,if the additional electricity demand created by electrolysers is supplied from unabated fossil fuel power plants,resulting fuel emissions could be significantly higher than what could be estimated based on average grid intensities.Producers or low-emission e-f

247、uels could also procure electricity through PPAs(Power Purchase Agreements)by signing a contract directly with a producer of low-emission electricity.This could take either the form of a physical PPA where contractual partners are located in the same grid and bidding area,or a financial PPA where th

248、e contracting parties can be located and/or operating on different grids and even in different countries.PPAs can offer several advantages to each party.For clean electricity developers,they bring the revenue certainty needed to secure investment in the plant.For the low-emission e-fuels producers,e

249、ngaging in a PPA allows for long-term price certainty.In addition,it offers a pathway to procure low-emission electricity when connected to a high-emission grid.Policies that support low-emission e-fuels may include requirements on how electricity needs to be procured in order to prevent fossil-powe

250、red grid electricity being used to produce fuels.They may require that e-fuels are produced from new low-emission electricity projects instead of electricity from existing facilities(so-called additionality requirement).They may also set rules on temporal correlation,i.e.how often e-fuel producers n

251、eed to prove that their electrolysers have been powered with low-emission electricity(usually either hourly,weekly,monthly or annual matching).Finally,there can be also requirements on grid proximity,e.g.e-fuels could be required to be produced in the same control area as their low-emission electric

252、ity source.Emissions also depend on the choice of end product as the efficiency of converting hydrogen to fuels varies.Ammonia can be produced with the highest efficiency,followed by methanol and Fischer-Tropsch(FT)fuels.As a result,FT fuels are most sensitive to the carbon intensity of electricity,

253、being generally 40%higher than The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 4.Production costs PAGE|37 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Captive renewables Renewable power is set to grow very significantly in the coming years as expanding policy support,growing energy security concerns and improving competiti

254、veness against fossil fuel alternatives drive strong deployment of solar PV and wind power.Major reductions in the cost of wind and solar PV electricity have created interest towards using variable renewables directly to produce low-emission e-fuels in locations that have high-quality renewable reso

255、urces and vast amount of available land for large-scale project development.At the best locations,capacity factors for producing electricity from renewables can exceed 50%for onshore wind and 25%for solar PV.However,focusing on locations with good complementarity between wind and solar resources mig

256、ht offer better opportunities for producing low-cost low-emission e-fuels than sites with only high-quality wind or solar resource.Wind and solar resources can be considered complementary at a given location when they smooth each others variation in electricity generation.In addition,complementarity

257、 should be considered across multiple timescales.An example of a short duration complementarity is a situation where intense solar radiation during the day is supplemented by strong winds during the night(see Mauritania in Figure 4.2).Similarly,an example of a long duration complementarity is a situ

258、ation where solar radiation is mostly received during the summer months while wind resource is on a higher level during the darker winter months(see Finland in Figure 4.2).While complementarity over short durations can depend on the geography and topology of a given site,seasonal complementarity is

259、strongly dependent on climatic conditions.methanols and 50%higher than ammonias emissions using the same electricity.Indicative threshold values for the emissions intensity of electricity that delivers equal emissions to their equivalent fossil fuels are 130 g CO/kWh for FT fuels and around 200 g CO

260、/kWh for ammonia and methanol.The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 4.Production costs PAGE|38 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Figure 4.2 Hourly generation patterns for wind and solar in Mauritania(left)and monthly capacity factors for Finland(right)IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:The Mauritania example is based

261、on a 1 000 MW hybrid power plant with a 40%capacity share of solar PV and a 60%share of onshore wind.Weather data from Renewables.ninja.Equally important to identifying a suitable production site is to optimally develop its wind and solar resources by dimensioning different components of the e-fuels

262、 plant through oversizing and hybridization.Oversizing is an optimisation approach where the combined installed capacity of wind and solar PV is dimensioned larger than the installed electrolysis capacity.Oversizing can increase the load factor of an e-fuels plant beyond the capacity factor of the e

263、lectricity source as it allows electrolysers to run on high load even during times of lower generation from renewables.An economically optimal amount of oversizing is site specific and depends on the relative costs of plant components.At high electrolyser prices there is a strong economic incentive

264、to increase the load factor of the e-fuel process,even if it results in curtailing part of the electricity during peak generation.Already relatively small amounts of oversizing can lead to significant improvements in load factor.However,as the amount of oversizing is further increased,the benefits s

265、tart to level off while the need to curtail starts to increase exponentially.In the example illustrated in the Figure 4.3(left panel),the production cost is minimised by applying a renewables oversizing factor of about two.At this level,the annual capacity factor of an e-fuels plant reaches 62%solel

266、y based on variable renewable energy without any need for intermediate buffer storage.The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 4.Production costs PAGE|39 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Figure 4.3 The impact of oversizing and hybridization on the levelised cost of low-emission e-kerosene IEA.CC BY 4.0.N

267、ote:Oversizing factor is defined as the installed power capacity divided by electrolyser capacity.The example features an e-kerosene plant based in US Midwest with a 18%capacity factor for solar PV and 44%for onshore wind.In the left panel the share of solar PV is 40%,in the right panel the oversizi

268、ng factor is 2.All assumptions are for 2030.Financial:WACC 5%,economic life 25 years.Performance:electrolyser 69%lower heating value(LHV),H2-to-syncrude 57%(LHV),transport fuel mass yield from a FT jet fuel refinery 85%,FT synthesis minimum load 30%,electricity consumption of compression and refinin

269、g 540 kWh/t.CAPEX:solar PV USD 690/kW,wind onshore USD 1 160/kW,electrolyser USD 800/kWe,H storage USD 400/kg,RWGS reactor+FT synthesis+refinery USD 1 200/kWe.OPEX:onshore wind USD 10/MWh(today and 2030),solar PV USD 10/MWh(today),USD 5/MWh(2030),electrolysis 1.5%/yr of CAPEX,synthesis 3%/yr of CAPE

270、X.Consumables:water USD 2/m3,CO feedstock USD 30/t.Weather data from Renewables.ninja.Hybridization is a complementary optimisation approach to oversizing,used to find an economically optimal capacity mix of wind and solar PV generation for an e-fuels production plant.While hybridization does not co

271、ntribute to higher capacity factor,it can be used to minimise curtailments for a given amount of oversizing.While oversizing depends on the relative costs of plant components,an economically optimal amount of hybridization is site specific.In the example illustrated above,the production cost is mini

272、mised at 40-50%share of solar PV in the capacity mix.At this level the annual curtailments are only 6%and significantly less than in a situation where power supply would be based solely on solar PV(18%)or wind(23%).Cost of CO feedstock With the exception of ammonia,e-fuels need to source carbon in t

273、he form of CO for their production.The cost of capturing CO feedstock is largely determined by its initial concentration.From high-concentration sources like fermentation processes,carbon dioxide is available at a nearly 100%pure stream that only requires drying and compression before it can be util

274、ised.Under such conditions,CO can be captured cheaply at around USD 20-30/t CO.E-fuel plants can also source CO feedstock from biomass combustion plants.However,the The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 4.Production costs PAGE|40 IEA.CC BY 4.0.concentration of CO is much lower in fl

275、ue gases(10-20 vol%)compared to fermentation processes,increasing capture costs to around USD 60-80/t CO.If biogenic point sources are not available for utilisation at the production site,e-fuel plants could source CO feedstock from the atmosphere with DAC.A widerange of cost estimates are available

276、 for DAC-based CO capture,reflecting lackof data and experience from large-scale plants.However,a recent expertsolicitation suggests for 2030 an average capture cost interval ofUSD 400-670/t CO.Figure 4.4 Levelised cost of e-ammonia and e-methanol at different capture cost for CO feedstock IEA.CC BY

277、 4.0.Notes:CO2 capture costs USD 30/t CO from high-concentration sources,USD 80/t CO from flue gases,USD 400/t CO from direct air capture.All other assumptions are for 2030.Financial:WACC 5%,economic life 25 years.Performance(all in LHV):electrolyser 69%,H-to-ammonia 88%,H-to-methanol 80%,ammonia an

278、d methanol synthesis minimum load 30%,electricity consumption of compression and ASU for ammonia plant 500 kWh/t,electricity consumption of compression and distillation for methanol plant 1 100 kWh/t.CAPEX:solar PV USD 690/kW,wind onshore USD 1 160/kW,electrolyser USD 800/kWe,H storage USD 400/kg,AS

279、U+ammonia synthesis loop USD 700/kWe,methanol synthesis loop+distillation USD 700/kWe.OPEX:onshore wind USD 10/MWh(today and 2030),solar PV USD 10/MWh(today),USD 5/MWh(2030),electrolysis 1.5%/yr of CAPEX,synthesis 3%/yr of CAPEX.Consumables:water USD 2/m3,CO feedstock USD 30/t.No value assumed for b

280、y-product heat.The cost of CO feedstock plays an important role in the cost of low-emission e-fuels,and especially in the relative competitiveness between e-ammonia and e-methanol.When e-methanol production can be based on a high-concentrationCO source,it is around 25%more expensive to produce than

281、e-ammonia.However,post-combustion capture from biogenic flue gases increases the costdifference to 40%.Finally,if CO would need to be sourced directly from air,itwould make low-emission e-methanol more than twice as expensive to produceas e-ammonia.The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chap

282、ter 4.Production costs PAGE|41 IEA.CC BY 4.0.The need to source CO for carbon-containing low-emission e-fuels from biogenic point sources will also limit the scale of production.Large corn ethanol plants generate around 1 Mt of by-product CO annually,enough feedstock for around 1 GWe scale e-fuels p

283、lant.However,large-scale biomethane plants are much smaller in comparison,producing less than 5%of the CO volume of a large ethanol plant,significantly restricting the scale of e-fuels production(to around 50 MWe).However,several fermentation and biomethane plants could be connected with a common pi

284、peline infrastructure that would allow production of e-fuels at a much larger scale from biogenic CO.In contrast to point sources,DAC plants could provide CO at a scale that is constrained only by the amount of available land for building the capture units.With DAC,e-fuel plants can be also sited in

285、dependently from point sources,only based on the quality of renewable resources and availability of land for large-scale project development.Heat integration Large-scale commercial electrolysers operate today at efficiencies of 65-70%on a lower heating value(LHV)basis while the downstream synthesis

286、step needed for the e-fuels process is 65-85%(LHV)efficient depending on the end product.As a result,the overall thermal efficiency from electricity to fuels ranges from 40-60%.Figure 4.5 Schematic energy balance of an e-fuels process IEA.CC BY 4.0.Conversion losses from e-fuels production are relea

287、sed in the form of heat and can be utilised for various purposes.From electrolysis,by-product heat can be recovered at around 70-85C,suitable for use in drying and space heating purposes.Around 40-60%of electricity input is converted to heatHigh-tempheatLow-tempheatHE-fuelElectricityELECTROLYSISSYNT

288、HESISThe Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 4.Production costs PAGE|42 IEA.CC BY 4.0.By-product heat from the synthesis step is released at significantly higher 200-300C temperature level and can be used to produce steam for various purposes.If by-product heat from electrolysis can b

289、e fully monetised,it could provide a significant additional low-emission revenue stream.At a USD 60/MWh value for by-product heat,the levelised cost of e-fuels would be reduced by around USD 10/GJ.Heat released by large-scale production of e-fuels may be difficult to monetise entirely,as local heat

290、demand may not match the scale of heat generation nor the variable operating patterns of the e-fuels plant.However,hot water storage facilities are available at a relatively low cost and are used commercially in district heating networks.By contrast,low temperature heat cannot be economically transf

291、erred for very long distances,so e-fuel plants should be located relatively near the heat demand.Space heating demand for buildings is seasonal and limited to 2 500-5 500 hours per year depending on the region.Industrial heat demand,however,is generally more evenly spread across the year,offering si

292、gnificant potential for by-product heat utilisation.Figure 4.6 Levelised cost of e-kerosene by value of electrolysers by-product heat and duration of demand IEA.CC BY 4.0 Note:Electrolyser 69%(LHV),heat derived at 70-85C temperature.Heat output 38 MJ/kg H.While heavy industries typically require hig

293、h temperatures,a quarter of industrial heat demand is needed at a temperature level below 100C.Such processes include drying,washing,pickling,staining,tempering and many others,with typical applications in sub-sectors such as paper,food and beverages,textiles or wood industries.Heat recovered from e

294、lectrolysis can also be upgraded with heat The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 4.Production costs PAGE|43 IEA.CC BY 4.0.pumps or used for preheating higher temperature industrial processes.Opportunities to valorise recovered heat through industrial processes depends on the possibi

295、lity to operate them flexibly,or to invest in heat storage to buffer the variability of heat generation from the e-fuel plant.High-temperature heat from the synthesis can be utilised also to cover e-fuel plants own heat requirements.For example,in methanol production heat can be used to drive distil

296、lation units that separate water from raw methanol to meet methanol quality standards.Another possibility is to supply heat for the CO capture units or steam to high-temperature electrolysers.In addition to heat,high purity oxygen is also produced in large quantities as a co-product to hydrogen in e

297、lectrolysis.Oxygen is used in many industrial uses,such as in the medical,food,metal and pulp sectors,and part of this could be captured by selling by-product oxygen from e-fuel plants,although the market is small compared to the amount of oxygen that would be released as a side effect of a large-sc

298、ale production of e-fuels.Innovation Although the production of low-emission e-fuels can be based largely on commercial components,there exists still considerable potential to reduce costs through innovation.Areas for improvement cover topics from efficiency improvements to new synthesis pathways an

299、d to deeper integration with biofuels production.Electrolyser efficiency The largest efficiency losses in the e-fuel process occur during electrolysis where around 35%of the electrical energy is lost to low-temperature heat.Electrolyser efficiency is closely dependent on system design and optimisati

300、on goals.Alkaline systems that were deployed in the fertiliser and chlorine industries since decades ago were already optimised for high efficiency under continuous operation.However,efficiency improvements have continued since,focusing especially on lower cost systems using high current densities,o

301、n achieving higher efficiency across the load curve,and on minimising voltage degradation over time.Continuous improvements have the potential to increase average electrical efficiencies7 of low-temperature electrolysers on average from 65%to 69%by 2030.7 Electrolysers electrical efficiency is the c

302、hemical energy content of the produced hydrogen(based on lower heating value),divided by the electrical energy input of the electrolyser.For SOEC electrolysers electrical efficiency does not include the energy for steam generation.The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 4.Production c

303、osts PAGE|44 IEA.CC BY 4.0.In parallel with continuous improvements of alkaline and PEM electrolysers,a scale up of high-temperature solid oxide(SOEC)technologies would enable a step change in electrolyser efficiency.SOEC electrolysers can achieve electrical efficiencies around 90%(LHV),but they ope

304、rate at about 850C,which means that feedstock water needs to be supplied in the form of steam.High efficiency of SOEC electrolysers is partly based on the assumption that electricity is not needed to produce steam,but instead it is available for the electrolysis from external sources.Using by-produc

305、t heat from the fuel synthesis to generate steam for the electrolysers would therefore provide obvious benefits to boost overall system efficiency,with first projects being announced.Especially the large amount of by-product heat output made available from the FT synthesis would provide significant

306、opportunities for thermal integration with SOEC electrolysers.Preparation of syngas from CO for FT synthesis The FT reaction requires carbon monoxide(CO)as reactant instead of CO.Therefore,in e-fuel applications a conversion step from CO to CO is needed before the conventional FT synthesis.This can

307、be achieved by catalysing water-gas shift(WGS)reaction in reverse.Several alternative process configurations can be envisioned for the preparation of syngas from CO for FT,depending on how the reactor would be heated and how it would be integrated with the overall process.An alternative approach als

308、o exists,as syngas could be prepared directly in a high-temperature co-electrolysis of CO and H.This would eliminate the need of a separate reverse-WGS step.New pathways to e-kerosene The methanol-to-gasoline(MTG)process was developed in the 1970s as a complementary route to Fischer-Tropsch for prod

309、ucing synthetic fuels.Both processes enable the production of liquid hydrocarbons from carbonaceous feedstocks that can be used as drop-in replacements for conventional petroleum fuels.Later in the 1980s a spin-off process was developed for producing light olefins from methanol(MTO).In contrast to t

310、he FT process that produces hydrocarbons at a wide carbon number range,gasoline synthesis is very selective,producing primarily a finished gasoline blend stock and a by-product stream resembling liquefied petroleum gas(LPG).A direct route to synthetic gasoline that avoids the separate methanol produ

311、ction step,called the TIGAS process,has also been developed.There is renewed interest towards producing synthetic hydrocarbons from methanol,especially jet fuel.Given the prior experience acquired from the methanol and gasoline/olefin technologies,a new route to e-kerosene utilising The Role of E-fu

312、els in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 4.Production costs PAGE|45 IEA.CC BY 4.0.methanol as an intermediate could emerge quickly and first demonstrations are already being announced.Integration with biomass gasification Clear synergies exist between the biofuel and e-fuel routes,most obviously via t

313、he utilisation of biogenic CO as a feedstock for low-emission e-fuels.However,opportunities exist also for a deeper integration,especially through combining the e-fuels route with the production of synthetic biofuels to a hybrid“e-biofuels”process.The production of synthetic biofuels involves gasifi

314、cation of lignocellulosic biomass to produce synthesis gas that is further converted to fuels by a catalytic synthesis.The CO that is formed during gasification needs to be removed from the process as there is not enough hydrogen in the system to convert it into fuel.However,if the process is supple

315、mented with an external hydrogen source,this carbon can be converted to fuel instead of being removed.Such an e-biofuels approach can significantly increase the fuel yield and therefore the carbon efficiency of the biofuel process.With a fully integrated process,the amount of fuels that can be produ

316、ced from a given amount of biomass can be more than doubled.Figure 4.7 Schematic illustration of an integrated e-biofuels process combining elements from biomass gasification and e-fuels pathways IEA.CC BY 4.0 Notes:The first conversion involves biomass gasification and clean-up of the produced syng

317、as with catalytic reforming.The second conversion involves fuel synthesis.Oxygen needs of the gasification and reforming step can be supplied from the by-product oxygen of the electrolysis.Source:Hannula,I.(2016),Hydrogen enhancement potential of synthetic biofuels manufacture in the European contex

318、t:A techno-economic assessment,Energy,Vol.101,pp.380-389,https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.03.119.In addition to an improved yield,cost benefits can also be identified.By-product oxygen from electrolysis can be used to supply process oxygen requirements,avoiding the need to invest in a cryogenic

319、air separation unit.By-product heat from electrolysis can be used for drying the biomass residues before gasification.Cost savings can be achieved also by omitting the need to invest in a CO removal unit.In addition,the electrolyser unit could be operated flexibly alongside the biofuels plant,depend

320、ing on the cost of low-emission electricity.The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 5.Deployment analysis PAGE|46 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Chapter 5.Deployment analysis If low-emission e-fuels are to make a meaningful contribution to reducing emissions from transport,a rapid scale up is needed d

321、uring this decade.This chapter assesses the implications in terms of needed cost reductions and infrastructure investments of an assumed ambitious goal of achieving a 10%share of e-fuels in aviation and shipping by 2030.10%e-fuels for aviation In 2022,aviation accounted for 2%of global energy-relate

322、d CO emissions,having grown faster in recent decades than rail,road or shipping.As international travel demand recovers following the Covid-19 pandemic,aviation emissions in 2022 reached almost 800 Mt CO,about 80%of the pre-pandemic level.Based on current policies,aviation fuel demand would reach 15

323、 EJ(7 500 kb/d)by 2030.Achieving 10%share of e-fuels would therefore require 1.5 EJ(750 kb/d)of e-kerosene,which can be produced via the Fischer-Tropsch(FT)route.The FT process was first discovered in the 1920s and was initially used to derive liquid fuels from coal.Today natural gas has largely rep

324、laced coal as a preferred feedstock for new plants,owing to its higher hydrogen content,better efficiency,and fewer impurities,although China has recently seen a resurgence of coal-to-liquids plants.The Fischer-Tropsch process involves reacting synthesis gas over a catalyst to produce synthetic crud

325、e oil(syncrude)in a reactor operating at around 200C and 20-30 bar.Of the most common catalyst metals for the FT process(iron,cobalt,nickel and ruthenium),iron and cobalt are available today for industrial application.Syncrude like conventional crude oil needs to be refined to obtain usable transpor

326、t fuels.Several different FT refinery designs have been proposed to maximise the production of either aviation fuel,high cetane diesel or synthetic motorgasoline.However,none of these fuels can be produced with perfect selectivity.From a refinery that is optimised for jet fuel production,around 75%s

327、electivity to on-specification kerosene can be achieved,the remaining 25%of transport fuel components being in the form of synthetic gasoline.This means that from 1.5 EJ e-kerosene supply in 2030,around 0.5 EJ of e-gasoline would be produced as a by-product.The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Trans

328、port Chapter 5.Deployment analysis PAGE|47 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Figure 5.1 Selected Fischer-Tropsch product distributions to on-specification jet fuel,diesel and gasoline by refinery design IEA.All rights reserved.Note:With FT refinery designs,a combined transport fuel mass yield of 85%can be achieved with

329、 fuel gas(mostly light hydrocarbons such as methane and ethane)being the main non-transport fuel component.Source:IEA based on Fischer-Tropsch Refining,University of Pretoria.Refinery designs illustrated in Figure 5.1 aim to maximise overall transport yield(bined amount of jet fuel and gasoline).The

330、se limits could be surpassed in a refinery by forcing the product distribution further towards a single product.Even a 100%jet fuel refinery would be possible if all non-jet fuel products would be continuously recycled and converted back to syngas.However,this would lead to lower overall efficiency

331、and require much more refining(increasing capital and operating costs)compared to a design where by-product gasoline is allowed.Cost impact The current high cost of low-emission e-kerosene is a key barrier for its deployment.An optimised large-scale plant,located on a site with high-quality solar PV

332、 and wind resources with complementary profiles,and having access to low-cost biogenic CO feedstock,could produce e-kerosene at a cost of USD 80/GJ(USD 3 500/t),around 4-5 times the price of conventional jet fuel today(USD 750-1 000/t).With a 60%reduction in the price of electrolysers by 2030,the co

333、st of e-kerosene could be reduced to USD 60/GJ.Assuming further a 25%reduction in the price of renewable electricity,the levelised cost of e-kerosene could be reduced to USD 50/GJ(USD 2 150/t)by 2030.The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport Chapter 5.Deployment analysis PAGE|48 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Figure 5.2 Levelised cost of e-kerosene by potential cost reduction measure IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:The e