1、Since our initial Womenomics report in 1999, Japan now enjoys record female labor participation (71%) that surpasses the US and Europe, generous parental leave benefi ts, improved gender transparency, and labor reforms. Areas for improvement include: a dearth of female leaders, gender pay gaps, infl

2、 exible labor contracts, tax disincentives, insuffi cient caregiving capacity, and unconscious biases. However, the reward for persistence is potentially sizeable. Specifi cally, we estimate that closing the gender employment gap could lift Japans GDP by 10%, and in a “blue-sky scenario” where the r

3、atio of female vs. male working hours rises to the OECD average, the GDP boost could expand further to 15%. No t ime t o wast e: Recommendat ions Suggested government policies include: more fl exible labor contracts, gender pay gap disclosures, tax reforms, parliamentary gender quotas, promotion of

4、female entrepreneurship, and looser immigration rules. For corporations: proactive career management, more fl exible work environments, performance-based evaluations, gender target-setting, and male diversity champions. Society should dispel Womenomics myths, avoid gender role stereotypes in the med

5、ia, and promote more women in STEM. Fortunately, tailwinds such as ESG investing and shifting millennial male attitudes should further advance Japans diversity agenda. Kathy Matsui +81(3)6437-9950 | Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Hiromi Suzuki +81(3)6437-9955 | Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Kazunori

6、Tatebe +81(3)6437-9898 | Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Japan Port folio St rat egy Womenomics 5.0: 20 Years On (Redacted) 18 April 2019 | 8:18AM JST Analysts employed by nonUS affi liates are not registered/qualifi ed as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. Whats changed, what hasnt; potential 1

7、5% GDP boost The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. PORTFOLIO STRATEGY RESEARCH | April 18, 2019 Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to The Goldman Sachs

8、 Group, Inc. What s changed, what hasnt ; pot ent ial 15% GDP boost Since our initial Womenomics report in 1999, Japan now enjoys record female labor participation (71%) that surpasses the US and Europe, generous parental leave benefi ts, improved gender transparency, and labor reforms. Areas for im

9、provement include: a dearth of female leaders, gender pay gaps, infl exible labor contracts, tax disincentives, insuffi cient caregiving capacity, and unconscious biases. However, the reward for persistence is potentially sizeable. Specifi cally, we estimate that closing the gender employment gap co

10、uld lift Japans GDP by 10%, and in a blue-sky scenario where the ratio of female vs. male working hours rises to the OECD average, the GDP boost could expand further to 15%. No t ime t o wast e: Recommendat ions Suggested government policies include: more fl exible labor contracts, gender pay gap di

11、sclosures, tax reforms, parliamentary gender quotas, promotion of female entrepreneurship, and looser immigration rules. For corporations: proactive career management, more fl exible work environments, performance-based evaluations, gender target-setting, and male diversity champions. Society should

12、 dispel Womenomics myths, avoid gender role stereotypes in the media, and promote more women in STEM. Fortunately, tailwinds such as ESG investing and shifting millennial male attitudes should further advance Japans diversity agenda. Kathy Matsui +81 3 6437-9950 Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Hiromi

13、Suzuki +81 3 6437-9955 Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Kazunori Tatebe +81 3 6437-9898 Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. WOMENOMICS 5.0 Progress, areas for improvement, potential 15% GDP boost 20 YEARS ON The following is a redacted version of the original report. See inside for details. Executive summary

14、: Womenomics is working, but still more to do3 Why Womenomics? The economic and business case4 Progress since 199912 Areas for improvement20 No time to waste: Recommendations for government, corporations, society31 Tailwinds: ESG and shifting millennial attitudes42 Disclosure Appendix47 18 April 201

15、9 2 Goldman Sachs Japan Portfolio Strategy Table of Contents Not e: The following is a redact ed version of “Womenomics 5.0: 20 Years On” originally published April 16, 2019 55pgs. All company references in t his not e are for illust rat ive purposes only and should not be int erpret ed as invest me

16、nt recommendat ions. Executive summary: Womenomics is working, but still more to do Two decades have passed since we published our fi rst report on Women-omics: Buy t he Female Economy.1 In 1999, the term “diversity” was neither part of the Japanese vernacular, nor a focus for the government, compan

17、y managers, or society. Fast forward to 2019, and as a result of widespread labor shortages and a growing economy, there is a growing realization that gender diversity in the workplace is no longer an option, but an economic and business imperative. To mark the 20th anniversary since our initial Wom

18、enomics research, we take stock of progress thus far, identify areas for improvement, and propose concrete recommendations. 1. Whats the economic and business rationale behind Womenomics? Updating our 2014 simulation whereby Japanese female labor participation rises to that of males, the potential b

19、oost to Japans GDP could be 10%. However, under a “blue-sky” scenario, if we also assume the ratio of female vs. male working hours rises to the OECD average, the GDP boost could expand further to 15%. For businesses, Japanese listed fi rms with higher female manager ratios tend to deliver higher RO

20、Es and sales growth. 2. What progress has been seen since 1999? Over the past two decades, Japan has: a) seen its female labor participation ratio surge to a record 71%surpassing the US and Europe, b) introduced one of the most generous parental leave benefi ts in the world, c) improved its gender t

21、ransparency, and d) approved workstyle reforms that mandate overtime limits and equal pay for equal work. 3. What areas still need improvement? Areas that still need work include: a) a dearth of female leaders in both the private/public sectors, b) persistent gender pay gaps, c) infl exible labor co

22、ntracts, d) tax disincentives, e) insuffi cient caregiving capacity, and f) unconscious biases. 4. What should the government, corporations and society do now? Policy recommendations include: more fl exible labor contracts, gender pay gap disclosures, tax reforms, parliamentary gender quotas, promot

23、ion of female entrepreneurship, and looser immigration rules. For corporations, leaders should proactively manage womens careers, promote more fl exible work environments, shift to performance-based evaluations, set gender diversity targets, and engage male diversity champions. Society should dispel

24、 Womenomics myths, shift gender role stereotypes in the media, and encourage more girls and women to pursue STEM education and careers. 1 See our August 13, 1999 strategy report, Womenomics: Buy t he Female Economy. 18 April 2019 3 Goldman SachsJapan Portfolio Strategy The good news is that there ar

25、e two important tailwinds today that were absent in 1999 that should help advance the Womenomics agenda over the next 20 years: namely, the major expansion of ESG investing and shifting attitudes of the younger generation. Why Womenomics? The economic and business case When we fi rst broached the to

26、pic of Womenomics and the need for greater gender diversity in 1999, our argument was not social or cultural, but rather a simple economic one. After all, the three key determinants of economic growth for any country are: labor, capital, and productivity. Since Japans population is shrinking, capita

27、l is fi nite, and productivity gains will take time, unless radical steps are taken quickly, we argued that the nation not only faced the risk of a further decline in its productivity and potential growth rate, but eventually, lower standards of living as well. Demographic t sunami Since our last Wo

28、menomics report in 2014, Japans demographic situation has deteriorated even further.2 Indeed, in 2018, the IMF warned that in the absence of meaningful structural reforms, demographic headwinds could cause the level of Japans real GDP to decline by over 25% in 40 years relative to a baseline project

29、ion where productivity and population grow at their recent pace.3 How Japan chooses to manage its demographic headwinds over the next several years will serve as an important template (or not) for how other countries should cope with their own aging societies. After peaking in 2008 at 128 mn, Japans

30、 overall population had already shrunk by 1.5% to 126mn in 20184, and based on government projections, is forecast to drop by 30% to just 88 mn by 2065.5 More importantly, by 2055, Japans workforce population is expected to shrink dramatically by 40%, from 75 mn in 2018 to 45 mn (see Exhibit 1). 2 S

31、ee our May 6, 2014 strategy report, Womenomics 4.0: Time t o Walk t he Talk. 3 See Mariana Colacelli and Emilio Fernandez Corugedos November 2018 IMF Working Paper, “Macroeconomic Effects of Japans Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them?” 4 Population Estimates, Ministry of Internal Affai

32、rs and Communications Statistics Bureau. As of October 2018. 5 Japan National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. 18 April 2019 4 Goldman SachsJapan Portfolio Strategy The government aims to boost the fertility rate to 1.8 by 2025, but as of 2018, it stood at just 1.4. Japan remain

33、s one of the few major countries where the number of registered pets (dogs and cats only: 18.7 mn as of 2015) outnumbered children under the age of 15 (16.6 mn).6 Besides shrinkage, Japans population is also aging more rapidly than most other nations, with 28%7 of Japanese already in the elder-age c

34、ohort (65 years and older), and by 2055, this ratio is projected to rise to 37%. (see Exhibit 2). Japans old-age dependency ratio (number of elder persons supported by one active worker) will rise to around 75% by 2050the highest of any nation globallymeaning that eventually, each Japanese worker wi

35、ll need to support 1.3 elderly persons. This will pose even more serious challenges to the nations fi scal debt sustainability. 6 Japan Pet Food Association. 7 Provisional estimates by Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, as of Mar. 1, 2019. Exhibit 1: Japan workforce shrinking fast er t

36、 han ot her count ries Working age population proportion, aged 15-64, vs. total population, % 50 55 60 65 70 75 808590950005540455055 JapanKoreaGermanyUKChinaUS Japan Korea Germany UK China US UN estimates after 2020, based on median estimates of mortality and birth rates. World Populatio

37、n Prospects, 2017 Revision, UN, June 2017. Source: Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training, UN 18 April 2019 5 Goldman SachsJapan Portfolio Strategy Consequently, Japans labor market has become extremely tight, resulting in the unemployment rate sinking to a quarter-century low of 2.3% (Feb.

38、2019) and the job offers-to-applicants ratio reaching a record 1.6Xmeaning there are 60% more jobs available than Japanese seeking work (see Exhibit 3). Unsurprisingly, labor-intensive industries such as security services, construction, and transportation are facing the most acute shortages (see Exh

39、ibit 4). Exhibit 2: Japan is aging fast er t han ot her nat ions Ratio of population over the age of 65, % 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 808590950005540455055 JapanKoreaGermanyUKChinaUS Japan Korea Germany UK China US UN estimates after 2020, based on median estimates of mortality and birth ra

40、tes. World Population Prospects, 2017 Revision, UN, June 2017. Source: Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training, UN Exhibit 3: Japans uber -t ight job market As of February 2019 0.2X 0.4X 0.6X 0.8X 1.0X 1.2X 1.4X 1.6X 1.8X 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 00020406081012141618 Unemp

41、loyment rate (lhs)Job offers to applicant ratio (rhs) Source: MHLW 18 April 2019 6 Goldman SachsJapan Portfolio Strategy 8 See Tomohiro Ota, Naohiko Baba, and Yuriko Tanakas July 13, 2018 Japan Economics Analyst : Spot light on Immigr at ion (2): What could change for Japans economy and jobs mar ket

42、 ? Exhibit 4: Labor short ages across many sect ors Effective offers to applicant ratios (including part-time), as of January 2019 0X2X4X6X8X10X Security Construction and mining Service Transport and machinery operation Professional and technical Selling Production process Management Total Agri., Fo

43、restry and Fisheries ? Clerical staff Source: MHLW Relief from foreigners? To provide some relief from labor shortages, Japan has seen an infl ux of foreign workers in recent years, and our economists calculated that foreign workers accounted for as much as 15% of the growth in employees during 2018

44、 (182,000 vs. 1.2 mn) (see Exhibit 5).8 The main sources of these workers are technical trainees as well as foreign students studying in Japanese universities (where student visas allow up to 28 hours/week for employment). Exhibit 5: Foreigners account ed for 15% of growt h in employees in 2018, sou

45、rced mainly from t echnical t rainees and foreign st udent s Increase in the number of employees, YOY, thousands -500 0 500 1000 1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 200920001620172018 JapaneseForeigners Source: MHLW, MOJ 18 April 2019 7 Goldman SachsJapan Portfolio Strategy Althoug

46、h foreigners have provided some relief, ongoing job shortages recently prompted the government to approve legislation which allows longer-duration work visas (max. 5 years) for up to 345,000 foreign nationals in fi ve specifi ed industries such as caregiving, construction, hospitality, shipbuilding,

47、 and agriculture. This new visa program started April 1, 2019 and will last for the next fi ve years. While this should ease some of the shortages, we doubt it can fi ll the entire supply gap. Therefore, continuing to expand female employment must remain a top priority for the Japanese government an

48、d society. Record female labor part icipat ion When we published our fi rst Womenomics report in 1999, Japans female labor participation rate stood at just 56%one of the lowest in the developed world. Since then, however, the percentage has risen sharply to nearly 71% (as of Feb. 2019), overtaking t

49、he US (66%) and the Eurozone (62%) (see Exhibit 6). Growth in the number of working women has been particularly pronounced during the past six years of Abenomics, where the number of employed females surged by more than 3 mn from 26.4 mn in 2012 to 29.7 mn in 2018. 9 Female employment rate defi ned as the percentage of women working outside the home vs. female workforce between ages 15-64. Exhibit 6: Japans female labor part icipat ion rat e has surpassed t he U