1、May 2019June 2019 The future of women at work Transitions in the age of automation McKinsey Global Institute Since its founding in 1990, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) has sought to develop a deeper understanding of the evolving global economy. As the business and economics research arm of McKi

2、nsey it is not commissioned by any business, government, or other institution. For further information about MGI and to download reports, please visit The future of women at work: Transitions in the age of automation Authors Anu Madgavkar | Mumbai James Manyika | San Francisco Mekala Krishnan | Bost

3、on Kweilin Ellingrud | Minneapolis Lareina Yee | San Francisco Jonathan Woetzel | Shanghai Michael Chui | San Francisco Vivian Hunt | London Sruti Balakrishnan | Chicago June 2019 Preface Technological change, notably the adoption of automation technologies, is beginning to transform the way many of

4、 us work. Observers of this unfolding phenomenon have long asked how automation may affect the working lives of men and women differently, and new research from the McKinsey Global Institute attempts to answer that question. The report is part of the McKinsey Global Institutes research program on th

5、e future of work, and it focuses on how the growing adoption and diffusion of automation and artificial intelligence technologies is likely to affect women in the workforce. This research was prepared for the Women Deliver 2019 conference as part of our knowledge partnership with Women Deliver. We u

6、sed MGIs models on automation and the future of work to create scenarios for the future of work for women and men. We drew out differences in patterns of impact in the period to 2030 in ten countries (six mature economies and four emerging economies) that account for about half of the worlds populat

7、ion and that are representative of a wide range of demographic profiles, stages of economic development, and progress toward gender parity. This research complements MGIs research on the “power of parity” that has, over the past four years, explored trends in gender inequality in work and society ar

8、ound the world and what can be done to advance women. The research was led by Anu Madgavkar, MGI partner in Mumbai; Mekala Krishnan, MGI senior fellow in Boston; James Manyika, chairman and director of the McKinsey Global Institute and McKinsey senior partner based in San Francisco; Kweilin Ellingru

9、d, McKinsey senior partner in Minneapolis; Lareina Yee, McKinsey senior partner and chief diversity and inclusion officer in San Francisco; Vivian Hunt, McKinsey senior partner and managing partner for the United Kingdom and Ireland office; Jonathan Woetzel, McKinsey senior partner and a director of

10、 MGI based in San Francisco, and Michael Chui, MGI partner in San Francisco. Sruti Balakrishnan, a consultant based in Chicago, led the project team, which comprised Rachel Garber, Emma Kemble, Natalie Borowski, and Rishi Arora. Gurneet Singh Dandona and Alok Singh, automation specialists with the M

11、cKinsey Global Institute, led the research and analytics to build the automation and job-growth models for the ten countries in our report. We thank MGI partner Susan Lund and Tera Allas, senior fellow at the McKinsey Center on Government, who contributed their expertise to this effort. We warmly th

12、ank Katja Iversen, president and CEO, and Susan Papp, managing director for policy and advocacy, and the staff at Women Deliver, for their insights and collaboration. We are deeply grateful to our academic advisers, who challenged our thinking and provided valuable guidance throughout the research.

13、We thank Richard N. Cooper, Maurits C. Boas Professor of International Economics at Harvard University; Rakesh Mohan, senior fellow at the Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, Yale University, and distinguished fellow at Brookings India; and Laura Tyson, professor of business administration and eco

14、nomics at the Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley. Many external experts gave invaluable advice, including Amy Jerrett and Keiko Valente, associate program officers at the Bill Irene Natividad, president of the Global Summit of Women and chair of Corporate Women Directors Int

15、ernational; Jeni Klugman, managing director of the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security at Georgetown University; Andrew Dunckelman, head of economic opportunity, and Suzanna Bobadilla, strategy and operations, at Google.org; Henriette Kolb, head of the gender secretariat, and Alexa Ro

16、scoe, digital economy lead, at the International Finance Corporation; Kalpana Kochhar, director of the human resources department, and Era Dabla-Norris, division chief of fiscal affairs, at the International Monetary Fund; Amanda Lenhart, deputy director, and Brigid Schulte, director, at the Better

17、Life Lab at New America, and Anne-Marie Slaughter, president and CEO of New America and Bert G. Kerstetter 66 University Professor Emerita of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University; Umran Beba, senior vice president and chief diversity and engagement officer, PepsiCo; Nicole Bate

18、s, senior adviser, iiMcKinsey Global Institute strategy and planning, and Haven D. Ley, senior director, program strategy, at Pivotal Ventures; Kathy Calvin, president and CEO, Michelle Morse, vice president for Girls and Women Strategy, Robyn Russell, director of programs and innovation of the Univ

19、ersal Access Project, Geeta Rao Gupta, executive director of the 3D Program for Girls and Women, and Kalkidan Shebi, senior associate, at the United Nations Foundation; Anna Falth, WE EMPOWER senior program manager, Alison Rowe, senior communications adviser, Lopa Banerjee, chief of the civil societ

20、y section, Seemin Qayum, policy adviser on sustainable development, Diana Rusu, policy specialist, Vivek Rai, program specialist, Ritah Muyambo, senior consultant, Giorgina Piperone, consultant, and Ines Esteban Gonzalez, partnership analyst, at UN Women; Caren Grown, senior director, gender, Kathle

21、en Beegle, lead economist, Alicia Hammond, gender specialist, and Farida Aboulmagd, research analyst, at the World Bank. Colleagues from around the world offered valuable insights into various aspects of our research. We thank Megha Agarwal, Rimi Assi, Federico Berruti, Jules Carrigan, Jenny Cermak,

22、 Tasneem Dargahwala, Sandrine Devillard, Sundiatu Dixon- Fyle, Emma Dorn, Yaasna Dua, Hannah Ellix, Alan Fitzgerald, Wieteke Graven, Spurthi Gummadala, Sneha Guntaka, Rana Hamadeh, Solveigh Hieronimus, Kelly Hoffman, Maya Horii, Kelly Kolker, Martha Laboissiere, Kate Lazaroff-Puck, Jess Li, Nick Lil

23、ovich, Tiksha Karkra, Brent Macon, Archit Maheshwari, Chiara Marcati, Lisbeth Moeller, Lohini Moodley, Sylvia Mwangi, Tracy Nowski, Anand Sahu, Sandra Sancier-Sultan, Saurabh Sanghvi, Matthew Saunders, Sha Sha, Amanda Shi, Monica Shi, Allegra Simon, Margaret Shull, Archana Somasegar, Julia Sperling-

24、Magro, Sahil Tesfu, Oliver Tonby, Aspen Wang, Rob Whiteman, Yuting Yang, and Hannah Zhang. This report was edited and produced by MGI senior editor Janet Bush, editorial production manager Julie Philpot, and MGI graphic designers Laura Brown, Marisa Carder, Edgardo Salas, and Patrick White; Rebeca R

25、obboy, MGI director of external communications, managed dissemination and publicity, while digital editor Lauren Meling provided support for online publication and social media. We thank Tim Beacom, Nura Funda, and Karen Jones, MGI research specialists, and Deadra Henderson, MGIs manager of personne

26、l and administration, for their support. This report contributes to MGIs mission to help business and policy leaders understand the forces transforming the global economy, identify strategic locations, and prepare for the next wave of growth. As with all MGI research, this work is independent and ha

27、s not been commissioned or sponsored in any way by any business, government, or other institution. While we are grateful for all the input we have received, the report and views expressed here are ours alone. We welcome your comments on this research at MGI. Jacques Bughin Director, McKinsey Global

28、Institute Senior Partner, McKinsey many others will need to change the way they work. Globally, 40million to 160million women may need to transition between occupations by 2030, often into higher-skilled roles. If they make these transitions, women could find more productive, better paid work; if th

29、ey dont, they could face a growing wage gap or leaving the labor market. Men and women need to be skilled, mobile, and tech-savvy in the automation age, but women face pervasive barriers. Concerted and creative new solutions are needed to enable women to move forward. Men and women tend to cluster i

30、n different occupations in both mature and emerging economies, and this shapes how each is likely to be affected by automation. For instance, in many countries, women account for more than 70percent of workers in healthcare and social assistance, but less than 25percent of machine operators and craf

31、t workers. In a scenario where automation unfolds on the scale of past technological disruptions, women and men could face job displacement and potential job gains of a broadly similar magnitude. In the ten countries studied, an average of 20percent of working women (107million) could lose their job

32、s to automation versus 21percent of men (163million) by 2030. Rising demand for labor could imply 20percent more jobs for women, compared with 19percent for men, assuming their shares of sectors and occupations hold. Entirely new occupations will also be created, but approximately 60percent of new U

33、S occupations have been in male-dominated fields. However, the composition of potential job losses and gains for men and women could be different. Service- oriented and clerical support occupations could account for 52percent of womens job losses, but machine operation and craft work occupations cou

34、ld account for 40percent of mens losses. Women are well represented in fast-growing healthcare, which could account for 25percent of potential jobs gained for women, while manufacturing could account for 25percent of jobs gained for men. Worldwide, 40million to 160million women7 to 24percent of thos

35、e currently employedmay need to transition across occupations (the wide range reflects different paces of automation). For men, the range is comparable at 8 to 28percent. If women take advantage of transition opportunities, they could maintain their current share of employment; if they cannot, gende

36、r inequality in work could worsen. To make these transitions, women will need new skills. In mature economies, only jobs requiring a college or advanced degree may experience net growth in demand. In emerging economies, the many women working in subsistence agriculture with little education may have

37、 difficulty securing work in other sectors. Even women remaining in their current jobs will need to refresh their skills; they could be more prone than men to partial automation of their jobs, and will need to learn to work alongside automated systems. More women work in lower-paid occupations than

38、men. In mature economies, demand for high-wage labor is expected to grow, while demand for medium- and low-wage labor could shrink. Many emerging economies could experience stronger growth in demand for higherwage jobs. Enabling women to move up the skills ladder could prepare them for higher-paying

39、 jobs and more economic opportunity. However, va potential glut of workers in lower-wage jobsincluding men displaced from manufacturingcould put pressure on wages. Some women could leave the labor market entirely. Long-established barriers will make it harder for women to make transitions. They have

40、 less time to reskill or search for employment because they spend much more time than men on unpaid care work; are less mobile due to physical safety, infrastructure, and legal challenges; and have lower access to digital technology and participation in STEM fields than men. Policy makers and busine

41、sses need to step up interventions, some targeted at women, to overcome these barriers. High priorities include more investment in training and transitional support; more provision of childcare and safe and affordable transportation; addressing stereotypes about occupations; boosting womens access t

42、o mobile internet and digital skills in emerging economies; and supporting women in STEM professions and entrepreneurship. viMcKinsey Global Institute Associate Secondary education Lower than secondary education 40m 60m 160m 275m The future of women at work (107m) (163m) 20%(171m) 19%(250m) Jobs as

43、a share of 2017 employment, simple average across countries Potential jobs lost by 2030Potential jobs gained by 2030 Avg. rise Avg. decline Patterns of jobs lost and gained could differ for men and women To capture job opportunities, millions of women could need to make major work transitions by 203

44、0 More Less Signifcantly less Less College/advanced degree Associate Secondary education Lower than secondary education Navigating transitions could put women on a path to more productive, better-paid work; failing to do so could worsen existing challenges The overall scale of job losses and gains c

45、ould be similar for men and women1 40 million160 million women (724%) and 60 million275 million men (828%) could need to switch occupations by 2030. If women can navigate these transitions, they could maintain their current share of employment; otherwise gender inequality in work could worsen. Navig

46、ating the transitions holds the promise of higher wages for women. High wage Medium wage Low wage 7% 10% 8% Concerted measures and creative new solutions by governments, companies, and individuals are needed in three areas to enable the necessary transitions and overcome long-established barriers 1

47、Invest in training programs and platforms to enable women to develop necessary skills. WomenMen Enable women to balance unpaid and paid work, and develop infrastructure and networks, to boost their labor mobility. 2 Raise womens access to technology, their skills to use it, and their share of tech j

48、obs and leadership roles. 3 Source: NOTE: All numbers described are based upon a trend-line scenario of job creation and a midpoint scenario of automation. The range of transitions estimate is based upon both an early and a midpoint scenario of automation. See technical appendix for more details. Mc

49、Kinsey Global Institute analysis 1 Based on analyzing ten countries that account for about 60% of global GDP: Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan, Mexico, India, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States. More More Signifcantly more Flat/similar Many women may need higher education attainment or reskilling to stay employed. Mature markets College/advanced degree Emerging markets Mature markets Emerging markets 20% 21% High wage Medium wage Low wage 4% 7% 11% Biggest job gains (% of 2017 employment for each gender)Biggest job losses (% of 2017 employm