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旅游行业:海外酒店旅游疫后复苏复盘-221012(41页).pdf

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旅游行业:海外酒店旅游疫后复苏复盘-221012(41页).pdf

1、海外酒店旅游疫后复苏复盘海外酒店旅游疫后复苏复盘Overseas Hotel and Tourism Post Epidemic Recovery Review汪立亭汪立亭 Liting Wang 许樱之许樱之 Yingzhi Xu 2022年年10月月12日日Equity Asia Research本研究报告由海通国际分销,海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司,海通证券印度私人有限公司,海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌,海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明,重要披露声明和免责声明,请参阅附录。(Ple

2、asesee appendix for English translation of the disclaimer)2投资要点投资要点/INVESTMENT FOCUS旅游行业复苏条件具备:旅游行业复苏条件具备:随着疫苗接种率提升及疫情科学防控,全球及各洲新冠确诊人数大幅降低,旅游行业进入复苏通道。从疫苗接种率和当日新增人数比例来看,亚洲疫情防控优于北美、欧洲及全球平均水平。酒店业:酒店业:全球酒店供给疫情下增速放缓,21年有所反弹。疫情前全球酒店客房供给保持2%-3%的稳定增长,2020年疫情下增速放缓至1%,2021年客房供给增速反弹至2%。2021年以来全球经营指标稳步恢复。2021年全

3、球酒店RevPAR达到53.7美元/+45.1%,恢复至疫情前的66.6%。2022年3月以来美国市场RevPAR超疫情前。休闲出行需求弹性更大,复苏强于商务。以洲际酒店为例,疫情期间商务及休闲业务收入最大降幅分别为-72%、-88%。随着疫情平缓,2021年休闲业务收入超过商务业务,并在7、9、10、12月内实现同比2019年正增长17%、6%、6%、10%。有限服务酒店恢复优于全服务酒店。分地区:美非恢复较快,欧洲市场2H21加速恢复,亚太随疫情波动有所承压。开店:欧美酒店龙头规模进一步增长。万豪、希尔顿增速较快,酒店数同比增速约4%-7%。财务表现:精选国际收入恢复最快。精选休闲业务占比

4、较高,2Q22收入较疫情前增长16%,万豪、希尔顿、温德姆较疫情前各增1%、降10%、降28%。主题公园:中国主题公园表现优于美日。美国景点的整体游客量降幅多介于70%-80%;日本次之,整体游客量降幅介于65%80%;中国的损失较少,整体游客量降幅介于50%60%。财务表现:收入持续恢复,利润表现不一,海洋世界恢复最好。迪士尼收入表现最稳定,而六旗娱乐、海洋世界娱乐、范尔度假村收入表现具有明显季节性,截至2Q22除六旗娱乐收入恢复至91%外其他各家均超疫情前。扣非净利润方面,2Q22海洋世界娱乐、范尔度假村、六旗娱乐、迪士尼扣非净利润较疫情前各增121%、增13%、降47%、降89%。OTA

5、:BOOKING和亿客行总预订量快速恢复。自2Q20受疫情影响总预定量跌入谷底之后,BOOKING和亿客行的总预订量呈稳步修复态势,2Q22期间,BOOKING和亿客行的总预订量分别是2019年同期的138%、112%。财务表现:收入恢复至接近疫情前,利润端仍承压。收入方面,两家OTA公司恢复至接近疫情前。2Q22,BOOKING和亿客行的收入各为43亿美元、32亿美元,分别为2019年同期的112%和101%。扣非净利润方面,BOOKING表现优于亿客行。2Q22,亿客行仍亏损,扣非净利润较2019年同期降196%,BOOKING扣非净利润较2019年同期降12%,为8.6亿美元。总结与投资

6、建议:总结与投资建议:欧美酒店复苏趋势:疫情缓和后酒店ADR恢复优先于Occ,拉动RevPAR恢复超过疫情前;精选服务复苏快于全服务酒店;周边休闲旅游恢复相对优于商务出行;RevPAR恢复后储备店恢复正增长,我们判断加盟商签约意愿回暖。对标国内,我们判断短期出行限制下国内商旅需求相对刚性,随疫情恢复关注休闲旅游恢复弹性;疫情压力下开店有所放缓,但相较于海外成熟市场仍处于快速上升通道;关注RevPAR的恢复情况以及随后的加盟意愿回暖情况。重点关注:华住集团-S、锦江酒店、首旅酒店,关注君亭酒店等。风险提示:风险提示:宏观经济下滑,海外疫情扩散及输入风险,居民消费力恢复不及预期。For full

7、disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at RUgUcVjZyXbWpUrWbR9R9PnPnNnPnPkPqRqQeRmNoNaQoPqQMYmNtNuOqRtN3概览概览/Contents1.新冠疫情复盘:疫情趋于平缓,地域出现分化新冠疫情复盘:疫情趋于平缓,地域出现分化2.酒店:欧美龙头地位稳固,定位各有侧重酒店:欧美龙头地位稳固,

8、定位各有侧重3.主题公园:受疫情冲击显著,中国表现优于美日主题公园:受疫情冲击显著,中国表现优于美日4.OTA:2Q20以来持续修复,利润端仍承压以来持续修复,利润端仍承压5.风险提示风险提示For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 41 新冠疫情复盘:疫情趋于平缓,地域出现分化新冠疫情复盘:疫情趋于平缓,地域出现分化

9、For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 旅游行业复苏条件具备旅游行业复苏条件具备:随着疫苗接种率提升及疫情科学防控,全球及各洲新冠确诊人数大幅降低,旅游行业进入复苏通道。从疫苗接种率和当日新增人数比例来看,亚洲疫情防控优于北美、欧洲及全球平均水平。图图 全球及美欧亚当日新增确诊全球及美欧亚当日新增确诊01000200

10、030002020/01/222020/04/222020/07/222020/10/222021/01/222021/04/222021/07/222021/10/222022/01/222022/04/222022/07/22全球当日新增(人/每百万人)北美当日新增(人/每百万人)欧洲当日新增(人/每百万人)亚洲当日新增(人/每百万人)图图 全球及美欧亚疫苗完全接种率(全球及美欧亚疫苗完全接种率(%)0204060802021/1/12021/3/12021/5/12021/7/12021/9/12021/11/12022/1/12022/3/12022/5/12022/7/12022/9

11、/1全球北美欧洲亚洲资料来源:Wind,Our World in Data,HTI52.酒店:欧美龙头地位稳固,定位各有侧重酒店:欧美龙头地位稳固,定位各有侧重For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 全球酒店供给疫情下增速放缓全球酒店供给疫情下增速放缓,21年有所反弹年有所反弹。疫情前全球酒店客房供给保持2%-3%的

12、稳定增长,2020年疫情下增速放缓至1%,2021年客房供给增速反弹至2%。全球酒店市场欧美酒店规模可观全球酒店市场欧美酒店规模可观:根据洲际酒店2021年报援引STR,2019年酒店客房数排行前十中欧美占据六位,其中五家分别为万豪、希尔顿、洲际、温德姆和精选。其中万豪、希尔顿定位侧重高端,全面服务类型占比较高;洲际、温德姆、精选定位侧重经济型及中端酒店,有限服务型占比较高。图图 2016-2021全球酒店客房量及全球酒店客房量及yoy18.1 18.5 19.0 19.5 19.7 20.1 2.2 2.7 2.6 1.0 2.0 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0171818191

13、920202021全球酒店客房量(百万,左轴)yoy(%,右轴)表表 2020-2021年国际龙头酒店客房数量年国际龙头酒店客房数量酒店酒店2021酒店量(万)酒店量(万)2020酒店量(万)酒店量(万)2021客房量(万)客房量(万)2020客房量(万)客房量(万)万豪万豪79897642147.9 142.3 希尔顿希尔顿68376478 107.5 101.9 洲际洲际59915964 88 88.6 温德姆温德姆89508941 81 79.6 精选精选70307147 58 59.8 图图 2021年国际酒店龙头客房类型占比年国际酒店龙头客

14、房类型占比14%1%12%2%7%47%14%35%35%62%43%40%42%62%14%8%38%9%2%12%0%20%40%60%80%100%万豪希尔顿洲际温德姆精选其他经济型中端高端豪华型资料来源:STR,IHG,Hotels,各公司历年年报,HTI62.1 酒店:经营指标稳步恢复酒店:经营指标稳步恢复For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full repor

15、t on our website at 2021年年以来全球酒店市场逐步复苏:以来全球酒店市场逐步复苏:2021年全球酒店年全球酒店RevPAR恢复至恢复至2019年的年的66.6%:根据洲际酒店2021年报援引STR,2021年全球酒店客房供应同比增长2%;在2020年基数较低情况下,2021年全球酒店RevPAR达到53.7美元/+45.1%,恢复至疫情前的66.6%。2022年年3月以来美国市场月以来美国市场RevPAR超疫情前超疫情前:根据STR数据,尽管美国酒店入住率仍未完全恢复到2019年水平,但受较高ADR推动,2022年3月以来美国酒店RevPAR已超过疫情前,2022年7月较

16、2019年增长11.2%,恢复度创新高。图图 2016-2021全球酒店全球酒店RevPAR及及yoy76.2 78.9 80.8 80.6 37.0 53.7-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%007080902001920202021全球酒店RevPAR(美元,左轴)yoy(%,右轴)图图 2022年年1-7月美国酒店月美国酒店RevPAR同比同比2019年恢复情况年恢复情况59.0 78.2 93.8 98.2 97.5 108.6 110.7-12.8%-1.9%4.0%10.2%7.7%10.3%11.2%-15%-10%-5%0

17、%5%10%15%0204060801001201月2月3月4月5月6月7月RevPAR(美元,左轴)同比2019年(%,右轴)资料来源:STR,IHG,洲际酒店2021年报,HTI72.2 业务:休闲出行强势复苏,推动行业恢复业务:休闲出行强势复苏,推动行业恢复For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 休闲出行业务先

18、行复苏休闲出行业务先行复苏,成为酒店行业恢复强动力:成为酒店行业恢复强动力:休闲出行需求弹性更大休闲出行需求弹性更大,复苏势头强劲复苏势头强劲:以洲际酒店为例,疫情期间商务及休闲业务收入较2019年最大降幅分别为-72%、-88%。随着疫情平缓,2021年休闲业务收入超过商务业务,并在7、9、10、12月内实现较2019年正增长17%、6%、6%、10%。偏重休闲业务偏重休闲业务,精选国际酒店恢复情况领先精选国际酒店恢复情况领先:2021年精选国际酒店休闲业务占比高达82%,受益于休闲出行业务强劲复苏,精选国际美国市场OCC恢复情况较好,2Q21至1Q22期间超越2019年同期水平,并带动Re

19、vPAR增长。图图 2020-2021洲际酒店(美国)同比洲际酒店(美国)同比2019年商务及休闲业务收入年商务及休闲业务收入-72%-88%17%6%5%10%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%2020-12020-22020-32020-42020-52020-62020-72020-82020---12021-22021-32021-42021-52021-62021-72021-82021--112021-12商务休闲0%20%40%60%80%100%120%1Q202Q203Q204Q

20、201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22精选万豪希尔顿洲际图图 各酒店美国市场各酒店美国市场OCC较较2019年恢复情况年恢复情况资料来源:IHG2022Q1 Investor Presentation,各公司历年季报,HTI82.3 定位:有限服务表现更优定位:有限服务表现更优For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our webs

21、ite at STR将酒店划分为全服务型及有限服务型将酒店划分为全服务型及有限服务型:全服务类型通常为高端、豪华型酒店,提供餐饮、会议等全方位配套服务;有限服务型酒店通常为中端、经济型酒店,仅提供住宿、早餐等核心服务。有限服务酒店抗风险能力更强有限服务酒店抗风险能力更强:疫情以来,有限服务RevPAR降幅相对低于全面服务与高端及以上酒店,在较高OCC推动下,万豪酒店有限服务RevPAR恢复情况优于全服务。图图 国际龙头分模式酒店数比例(国际龙头分模式酒店数比例(2021)99%96%86%57%29%1%4%14%43%71%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%温德姆精选洲际希尔顿万豪

22、有限服务全服务图图 万豪酒店(北美)全服务及有限服务万豪酒店(北美)全服务及有限服务RevPAR相相较较2019年年-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%1Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22全服务有限服务资料来源:温德姆2022Q1财报PPT援引STR,各公司历年季报,HTI92.4 地区:美非恢复较快,欧亚有所承压地区:美非恢复较快,欧亚有所承压For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated

23、 stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 万豪酒店:万豪酒店:北美北美、中东和非洲恢复情况较好中东和非洲恢复情况较好:北美、中东和非洲业务自2021年下半年起加速恢复,2021年恢复最好的地区为中东及非洲和北美地区;2Q22中东和非洲地区、北美地区RevPAR均超过2019年同期。2H21欧洲地区加速恢复欧洲地区加速恢复,亚洲承压亚洲承压:欧洲市场恢复节奏于2021年下半年提速,1Q22恢复速度略有放缓。亚太地区恢复情况相对较差,大中华区1H21领跑各区域,21年下半年开始回落,随疫情波动明显。图图 万豪酒

24、店各地区万豪酒店各地区RevPAR较较2019年恢复情况年恢复情况-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%1Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22大中华区除中国外的亚太地区加勒比和拉丁美洲欧洲中东和非洲国际-全部北美全球图图 2021年万豪酒店各地区年万豪酒店各地区RevPAR较较2019年恢复情况年恢复情况-38.39%-58.42%-37.65%-56.99%-23.68%-47.31%-31.82%-36.35%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%资料来源:万豪历年季报、年报,HTI102.4 地区:美非恢复较快,欧亚有所承压地区:美非恢复较快

25、,欧亚有所承压For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 希尔顿酒店:希尔顿酒店:美国和中东非洲地区恢复情况较好美国和中东非洲地区恢复情况较好:希尔顿美国恢复稳定,2021年表现较好,2Q22RevPAR较2Q19恢复度接近100%,中东及非洲地区4Q21快速恢复,超过4Q19同期,21年全年表现位居第二。2H21欧洲地

26、区加速恢复欧洲地区加速恢复,亚太地区承压亚太地区承压:欧洲市场恢复节奏于2021年下半年提速。21年下半年及1Q22随着疫情扰动,亚太地区持续低迷,恢复度约50%。图图 希尔顿酒店各地区希尔顿酒店各地区RevPAR较较2019年恢复情况年恢复情况图图 2021年希尔顿酒店各地区年希尔顿酒店各地区RevPAR较较2019年恢复情况年恢复情况资料来源:希尔顿历年季报,HTI-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%1Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22美国美洲(除美国)欧洲-22.28%-36.97%-51.25%-31.32%-42.96%-27.69%-60%-50%-40

27、%-30%-20%-10%0%112.4 地区:美非恢复较快,欧亚有所承压地区:美非恢复较快,欧亚有所承压For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 洲际酒店:洲际酒店:美洲恢复领先美洲恢复领先,欧非加速欧非加速,中国区承压中国区承压:洲际美洲21年全年恢复至80%左右,3Q21至2Q22恢复度稳定在90%以上,领跑各区

28、域;欧洲、中东、亚洲和非洲恢复加速;大中国区2021上半年表现为各区最优,3Q21至2Q22随疫情波动下滑。图图 洲际各地区洲际各地区RevPAR较较2019年恢复情况年恢复情况图图 2021年洲际各地区年洲际各地区RevPAR较较2019年恢复情况年恢复情况资料来源:洲际历年季报,HTI-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%1Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22美洲欧洲、中东、亚洲和非洲大中国全球-19.8%-51.8%-28.7%-29.8%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%122.5 开店:酒店龙头规模维持增长开店:酒店龙头

29、规模维持增长For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 欧美酒店龙头规模进一步增长欧美酒店龙头规模进一步增长,其中万豪和希尔顿增长较快其中万豪和希尔顿增长较快。1Q19-2Q22,万豪酒店数由7003家增长到8100家,储备店由2853家增长到2942家;希尔顿酒店数由5757家增长到6983家,储备店数由2480家增长

30、到2780家。欧美酒店市场较为成熟,万豪各季度酒店数同比增速约维持在4%-6%,希尔顿则为5%-7%;储备店方面,3Q20-4Q21加盟情况受疫情影响至储备店增速放缓,一度出现负增长,1Q22之后储备店数恢复正增长。图图 万豪在营酒店及储备店和增长情况万豪在营酒店及储备店和增长情况资料来源:各公司历年季报,HTI-10%-5%0%5%10%02000400060008000100001Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22在营酒店数(家,左轴)储备店数(家,左轴)酒店数yoy(%,右轴)储备店数yoy(%,右轴)图图 希尔

31、顿在营酒店及储备店和增长情况希尔顿在营酒店及储备店和增长情况-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%00400050006000700080001Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22在营酒店数(家,左轴)储备店数(家,左轴)酒店数yoy(%,右轴)储备店数yoy(%,右轴)132.6 收入:精选超疫情前,万豪希尔顿温德姆接近收入:精选超疫情前,万豪希尔顿温德姆接近80%For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target

32、price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 精选国际收入恢复最快精选国际收入恢复最快。收入方面,精选国际恢复领先,自3Q21开始季度收入超过疫情之前,我们判断主因休闲业务占比高,复苏弹性大;万豪、希尔顿、温德姆也呈稳步复苏的态势,至2Q22三家酒店集团营业收入分别恢复至疫情前同期101%、90%、72%。图图 万豪营业收入及较万豪营业收入及较2019同期(同期(1Q21-2Q22)资料来源:Wind,HTI23.1631.4939.4644.46

33、41.9953.38-54%-41%-25%-17%-16%1%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%02040601Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22收入(亿美元,左轴)yoy(%,右轴)较2019同期(%,右轴)图图 精选国际营业收入及精选国际营业收入及较较2019同期同期(1Q21-2Q22)1.832.783.232.852.583.68-16%-12%4%6%18%16%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0.01.02.03.04.01Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22收入(亿美元,左轴)yoy(%,右轴)较2019同期(%,右轴)图图

34、 希尔顿营业收入及希尔顿营业收入及较较2019同期同期(1Q21-2Q22)8.7413.2917.4918.3617.2122.40-60%-46%-27%-22%-22%-10%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%05101520251Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22收入(亿美元,左轴)yoy(%,右轴)较2019同期(%,右轴)图图 温德姆营业收入及温德姆营业收入及较较2019同期同期(1Q21-2Q22)3.034.064.633.923.713.86-35%-24%-17%-20%-21%-28%-50%0%50%100%0.01.02.03.04.05.01Q

35、212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22收入(亿美元,左轴)yoy(%,右轴)较2019同期(%,右轴)142.6 利润:利润:2Q22各酒店集团均超疫情前各酒店集团均超疫情前For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 2Q22各酒店集团均超疫情前各酒店集团均超疫情前。扣非净利润方面,1Q21-2Q22各酒店集团呈波

36、动恢复的态势,温德姆21年下半年有所承压。至2Q22,各酒店集团扣非净利润均超疫情前,2Q22温德姆、万豪、希尔顿、精选国际扣非净利润较2Q19各增161%、67%、42%、30%。图图 万豪扣非净利润及较万豪扣非净利润及较2019同期(同期(1Q21-2Q22)资料来源:Wind,HTI图图 精选国际扣非净利润及精选国际扣非净利润及较较2019同期同期(1Q21-2Q22)图图 希尔顿扣非净利润及希尔顿扣非净利润及较较2019同期同期(1Q21-2Q22)图图 温德姆扣非净利润及温德姆扣非净利润及较较2019同期同期(1Q21-2Q22)-0.104.252.244.683.866.78-1

37、03%5%-43%107%1%67%-200%-100%0%100%200%-2024681Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22扣非净利润(亿美元,左轴)较2019同期(%,右轴)-0.391.302.411.472.123.68-125%-50%-16%-16%34%42%-150%-100%-50%0%50%-2.00.02.04.01Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22扣非净利润(亿美元,左轴)较2019同期(%,右轴)0.220.861.170.640.671.03-32%9%53%30%104%30%-50%0%50%100%150%0.00.51.01.51Q2

38、12Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22扣非净利润(亿美元,左轴)较2019同期(%,右轴)0.260.871.030.480.700.94-38%142%30%-32%67%161%-50%0%50%100%150%200%00.20.40.60.811.21Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22扣非净利润(亿美元,左轴)较2019同期(%,右轴)152.7 股价复盘:精选、温德姆、希尔顿表现较好股价复盘:精选、温德姆、希尔顿表现较好For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price forma

39、tion on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 复盘海外酒店公司股价表现,精选国际、温德姆、希尔顿表现较好,我们认为主要与其疫情后复苏较快,利润端表现较好有关。从阶段趋势来看,20年3月底各酒店公司股价跌至谷底,随后快速向上修复,期间Delta病毒和Omicron病毒爆发对股价造成阶段性冲击。资料来源:Wind,HTI图图 各海外酒店公司股价涨跌幅(以各海外酒店公司股价涨跌幅(以2020.1.1为基数)为基数)-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%2020

40、/01/012020/04/012020/07/012020/10/012021/01/012021/04/012021/07/012021/10/012022/01/012022/04/012022/07/01万豪希尔顿洲际温德姆雅高精选国际Delta病毒爆发Omicron病毒爆发,俄乌冲突163.全球主题公园受到疫情冲击显著全球主题公园受到疫情冲击显著For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to t

41、he latest full report on our website at 中国主题公园表现优于美日中国主题公园表现优于美日:全球10大娱乐/主题公园中,有5个位于美国,3个位于日本,2个位于中国。2020年,美国景点的整体游客量降幅多介于70%-80%;日本次之,整体游客量降幅介于65%80%;中国的损失较少,整体游客量降幅介于50%60%。资料来源:AECOM,TEA,HTI图图 20182020期间期间全球排名前全球排名前10位娱乐位娱乐/主题公园游客量(以主题公园游客量(以2018年为准,单位:万人)年为准,单位:万人)208654118

42、065446943674404550368480050002500迪士尼魔法王国东京迪士尼乐园日本环球影城迪士尼未来世界迪士尼好莱坞影城2073.1 收入:迪士尼收入表现稳定,海洋世界恢复最好收入:迪士尼收入表现稳定,海洋世界恢复最好For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,pl

43、ease refer to the latest full report on our website at 收入方面,迪士尼收入表现最稳定,而六旗娱乐、海洋世界娱乐、范尔度假村收入表现具有明显季节性,二、三季度为一年中的旺季,2021年以来疫情影响消退,龙头收入持续恢复。截至2Q22,海洋世界娱乐、迪士尼、范尔度假村、六旗娱乐收入较疫情前各增24%、增7%、增7%、降9%。图图 迪士尼营业收入及较迪士尼营业收入及较2019同期(同期(1Q21-2Q22)资料来源:Wind,HTI图图 海洋世界娱乐营业收入及海洋世界娱乐营业收入及较较2019同期同期(1Q21-2Q22)图图 六旗娱乐营业收入

44、及六旗娱乐营业收入及较较2019同期同期(1Q21-2Q22)图图 范尔度假村营业收入及范尔度假村营业收入及较较2019同期同期(1Q21-2Q22)162.49156.13170.22185.34218.19192.496%5%-16%-3%43%7%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%01002003001Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22收入(亿美元,左轴)yoy(%,右轴)较2019同期(%,右轴)0.824.606.383.171.384.35-36%-4%3%21%8%-9%-1000%0%1000%2000%3000%024681Q212Q213Q214Q211Q2

45、22Q22收入(亿美元,左轴)yoy(%,右轴)较2019同期(%,右轴)1.724.405.213.712.715.05-22%8%10%24%23%24%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%02461Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22收入(亿美元,左轴)yoy(%,右轴)较2019同期(%,右轴)1.326.858.892.041.769.07-40%-19%-7%-16%-20%7%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%02468101Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22收入(亿美元,左轴)yoy(%,右轴)较2019同期(%,右轴)

46、183.2 利润:恢复不一,海洋世界表现较好利润:恢复不一,海洋世界表现较好For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 扣非净利润方面,各主题公园集团呈波动恢复的态势。季节性角度,参照疫情之前,迪士尼全年各季均盈利;海洋世界娱乐在二、三、四季度盈利,一季度亏损;六旗娱乐、范尔度假村仅在二、三季度旺季盈利,一、四淡季亏损。

47、截至2Q22,海洋世界娱乐、范尔度假村、六旗娱乐、迪士尼扣非净利润较疫情前各增121%、增13%、降47%、降89%。图图 迪士尼扣非净利润及较迪士尼扣非净利润及较2019同期(同期(1Q21-2Q22)资料来源:Wind,HTI图图 海洋世界娱乐扣非净利润及海洋世界娱乐扣非净利润及较较2019同期同期(1Q21-2Q22)图图 六旗娱乐扣非净利润及六旗娱乐扣非净利润及较较2019同期同期(1Q21-2Q22)图图 范尔度假村扣非净利润及范尔度假村扣非净利润及较较2019同期同期(1Q21-2Q22)1.3013.159.532.5111.046.65-95%-78%-52%-82%-60%-

48、89%-150%-100%-50%0%0510151Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22扣非净利润(亿美元,左轴)较2019同期(%,右轴)-0.960.711.57-0.02-0.660.45-39%-18%-13%82%5%-47%-100%-50%0%50%100%-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.01Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22扣非净利润(亿美元,左轴)较2019同期(%,右轴)-0.451.291.610.71-0.091.17-30%145%62%400%74%121%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%-1.0-0.

49、50.00.51.01.52.01Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22扣非净利润(亿美元,左轴)较2019同期(%,右轴)-1.521.512.83-1.34-1.462.32-44%-27%-4%-55%-38%13%-60%-40%-20%0%20%-2-1012341Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22扣非净利润(亿美元,左轴)较2019同期(%,右轴)193.3 股价复盘:海洋世界表现较优股价复盘:海洋世界表现较优For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formati

50、on on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 全球主题公园公司股价在全球主题公园公司股价在20年年3月底跌至谷底后快速向上修复月底跌至谷底后快速向上修复,在在22年年4月中下旬伴随疫情扰动回落月中下旬伴随疫情扰动回落。截至2022年6月30日,海洋世界娱乐股价较2020年1月1日涨39%,表现最好,其余各公司股价表现不及疫情前,永利度假股价较2020年1月1日跌59%跌幅最大。资料来源:Wind,HTI图图 各主题公园公司股价涨跌幅(以各主题公园公司股价涨跌幅(以2020.

51、1.1为基数)为基数)-100%-50%0%50%100%150%2020/01/012020/04/012020/07/012020/10/012021/01/012021/04/012021/07/012021/10/012022/01/012022/04/012022/07/01迪士尼六旗娱乐海洋世界娱乐范尔度假村永利度假204.1 OTA公司快速修复疫情影响公司快速修复疫情影响For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,pl

52、ease refer to the latest full report on our website at BOOKING和亿客行总预订量快速恢复:和亿客行总预订量快速恢复:自2Q20受疫情影响总预定量跌入谷底之后,BOOKING和亿客行的总预订量呈稳步修复态势,2Q22期间,BOOKING和亿客行的总预订量分别是2019年同期的138%、112%。资料来源:Wind,HTI图图 20181Q22 BOOKING和亿客行总预订量(亿美元)和亿客行总预订量(亿美元)2502392433207273345272 210 202 1

53、19 294 233 222 329 179 27 86 76 154 208 187 175 244 26002503003504001Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22BOOKING亿客行(EXPEDIA)214.2 收入利润:收入恢复至接近疫情前,利润端仍承压收入利润:收入恢复至接近疫情前,利润端仍承压For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation

54、on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 收入方面,两家OTA公司恢复至接近疫情前。2Q22期间,BOOKING和亿客行的营业收入分别为43亿美元、32亿美元,分别为2019年同期水平的112%和101%。扣非净利润方面,2Q22 BOOKING表现优于亿客行。2Q22期间,亿客行扣非净利润较2019年同期降196%,BOOKING扣非净利润较2019年同期降12%,为8.6亿美元。图图 BOOKING营业收入及较营业收入及较2019同期(同期(1Q21-2Q22)资料来源:

55、Wind,HTI图图 BOOKING扣非净利润及扣非净利润及较较2019同期同期(1Q21-2Q22)图图 亿客行营业收入及亿客行营业收入及较较2019同期同期(1Q21-2Q22)图图 亿客行扣非净利润及亿客行扣非净利润及较较2019同期同期(1Q21-2Q22)11.4121.6046.7629.8126.9542.94-60%-44%-7%-11%-5%12%-100%0%100%200%300%02040601Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22收入(亿美元,左轴)yoy(%,右轴)较2019同期(%,右轴)-0.470.767.696.22-6.648.63-106%-92

56、%-61%-47%-187%-12%-200%-150%-100%-50%0%-10-505101Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22扣非净利润(亿美元,左轴)较2019同期(%,右轴)12.4621.1129.6222.7922.4931.81-52%-33%-17%-17%-14%1%-100%0%100%200%300%0102030401Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22收入(亿美元,左轴)yoy(%,右轴)较2019同期(%,右轴)-5.50-1.673.980.00-1.01-1.83-563%-187%-6%-100%-22%-196%-600%-450%-

57、300%-150%0%-10.0-5.00.05.01Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22扣非净利润(亿美元,左轴)较2019同期(%,右轴)224.3 股价复盘股价复盘For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at OTA公司股价在20年3月底跌至谷底,此后伴随疫情控制和旅行限制放开波动修复,Delta病毒和Om

58、icron病毒爆发对公司股价造成较大冲击。资料来源:Wind,HTI图图 海外海外OTA公司股价涨跌幅(以公司股价涨跌幅(以2020.1.1为基数)为基数)-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2020/01/012020/04/012020/07/012020/10/012021/01/012021/04/012021/07/012021/10/012022/01/012022/04/012022/07/01BOOKING亿客行年底假日较多,欧美疫情反弹Delta病毒爆发Omicron病毒爆发,俄乌冲突235 风险提示风险提示For full discl

59、osure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 宏观经济下滑海外疫情扩散及输入风险居民消费力恢复不及预期APPENDIX 1Summary-European and American leaders in the hotel industry firmly established,each with its own focus-Theme parks

60、hit significantly by epidemic,China outperformed US and Japan-OTA continued to repair,profits still under pressure-Risks:The macroeconomic downturn,Overseas epidemics import risks,Unexpected recovery of residents consumption24APPENDIX 2重要信息披露重要信息披露本研究报告由海通国际分销,海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL),Haitong Securit

61、ies India Private Limited(HSIPL),Haitong International Japan K.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌,海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。IMPORTANT DISCLOSURESThis research report is distributed by Haitong International,a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong Internation

62、al Research Limited(“HTIRL”),Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HSIPL”),Haitong International Japan K.K.(“HTIJKK”),Haitong International Securities Company Limited(“HTISCL”),and anyother members within the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies(“HTISG”),each authorized to engage

63、in securities activities in its respectivejurisdiction.HTIRL分析师认证分析师认证Analyst Certification:我,汪立亭,在此保证(i)本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点,并且(ii)我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关;及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券,我们(包括我们的家属)在其中均不持有任何财务利益。I,Liting WANG,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research r

64、eport accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectcompanies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendationsor views expressed in this research report;and that I(includin

65、g members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subjectcompanies discussed.我,许樱之,在此保证(i)本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点,并且(ii)我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关;及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券,我们(包括我们的家属)在其中均不持有任何财务利益。I,Yingzhi XU,certify that(i)the views expr

66、essed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectcompanies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendationsor views expressed in this research re

67、port;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subjectcompanies discussed.25APPENDIX 2利益冲突披露利益冲突披露Conflict of Interest Disclosures海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言,以下是有关该等关系的披露事项(以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏,如需了解及时全面信息,请发邮件至

68、ERD-D)HTI and some of its affiliates may engage in investment banking and/or serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions of certain stocks orcompanies in this research report.As far as this research report is concerned,the following are the disclosure matters related to such relati

69、onship(As the followingdisclosure does not ensure timeliness and completeness,please send an email to ERD-D if timely and comprehensive information is needed).锦江国际(集团)有限公司目前或过去12个月内是海通的客户。海通向客户提供非投资银行业务的证券相关业务服务。锦江国际(集团)有限公司 is/was a client of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.The clien

70、t has been provided for non-investment-banking securities-related services.26APPENDIX 2评级定义评级定义(从从2020年年7月月1日开始执行日开始执行):海通国际(以下简称“HTI”)采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司:优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息,投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情况下,分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况(比如投资者的现有持仓)以及其他因素。分析师股票评级分析师股票评级

71、优于大市优于大市,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上,基准定义如下中性中性,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大,基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则,我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。弱于大市弱于大市,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上,基准定义如下各地股票基准指数:日本各地股票基准指数:日本 TOPIX,韩国韩国 KOSPI,台湾台湾 TAIEX,印度印度 Nifty100,美国美国 SP500;其他所有中国概念股其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.Ratings Definitions(from 1 Jul 2020):H

72、aitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperform,Neutral,or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover to investors.Investors shouldcarefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Research.In addition,since Haitong International Research contains

73、 more completeinformation concerning the analysts views,investors should carefully read Haitong International Research,in its entirety,and not infer the contents from the ratingalone.In any case,ratings(or research)should not be used or relied upon as investment advice.An investors decision to buy o

74、r sell a stock should depend on individualcircumstances(such as the investors existing holdings)and other considerations.Analyst Stock RatingsOutperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Neutr

75、al:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Forpurposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.Underperform:The stocks total retur

76、n over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100,US SP500;for all other China-conceptstocks MSCI China.27APPENDIX 2评级分布

77、评级分布Rating Distribution28APPENDIX 2截至截至2022年年9月月30日日海通国际股票研究评级分布海通国际股票研究评级分布优于大市优于大市中性中性弱于大市弱于大市(持有持有)海通国际股票研究覆盖率89.4%9.2%1.4%投资银行客户*5.5%6.8%4.5%*在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。上述分布中的买入,中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市,中性和落后大市评级。只有根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则,我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含非评级的股票。此前的评级系统定义此前的评级系统定义(直至直至2020年年6月月30日日):买入

78、买入,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上,基准定义如下中性中性,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大,基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则,我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。卖出卖出,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上,基准定义如下各地股票基准指数:日本各地股票基准指数:日本 TOPIX,韩国韩国 KOSPI,台湾台湾 TAIEX,印度印度 Nifty100;其他所有中国概念股其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.Haitong International Equity Research Ratings Distribution,

79、as of Sep 30,2022OutperformNeutralUnderperform(hold)HTI Equity Research Coverage89.4%9.2%1.4%IB clients*5.5%6.8%4.5%*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.BUY,Neutral,and SELL in the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outperform,Neutral,and Underperfor

80、m.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.Please note that stocks with an NR designation are notincluded in the table above.Previous rating system definitions(until 30 Jun 2020):BUY:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 mo

81、nths is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.NEUTRAL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distr

82、ibution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.SELL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiw

83、an TAIEX,India Nifty100;for all other China-concept stocks MSCIChina.29APPENDIX 2海通国际非评级研究:海通国际非评级研究:海通国际发布计量、筛选或短篇报告,并在报告中根据估值和其他指标对股票进行排名,或者基于可能的估值倍数提出建议价格。这种排名或建议价格并非为了进行股票评级、提出目标价格或进行基本面估值,而仅供参考使用。Haitong International Non-Rated Research:Haitong International publishes quantitative,screening or

84、short reports which may rank stocks according to valuation andother metrics or may suggest prices based on possible valuation multiples.Such rankings or suggested prices do not purport to be stock ratings or target prices orfundamental values and are for information only.海通国际海通国际A股覆盖股覆盖:海通国际可能会就沪港通及

85、深港通的中国A股进行覆盖及评级。海通证券(600837.CH),海通国际于上海的母公司,也会于中国发布中国A股的研究报告。但是,海通国际使用与海通证券不同的评级系统,所以海通国际与海通证券的中国A股评级可能有所不同。Haitong International Coverage of A-Shares:Haitong International may cover and rate A-Shares that are subject to the Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme withShanghai and Shenzhen.Haitong Securities

86、(HS;600837 CH),the ultimate parent company of HTISG based in Shanghai,covers and publishes research on these sameA-Shares for distribution in mainland China.However,the rating system employed by HS differs from that used by HTI and as a result there may be a difference in theHTI and HS ratings for t

87、he same A-share stocks.海通国际海通国际优质优质100 A股股(Q100)指数指数:海通国际Q100指数是一个包括100支由海通证券覆盖的优质中国A股的计量产品。这些股票是通过基于质量的筛选过程,并结合对海通证券A股团队自下而上的研究。海通国际每季对Q100指数成分作出复审。Haitong International Quality 100 A-share(Q100)Index:HTIs Q100 Index is a quant product that consists of 100 of the highest-quality A-shares under cove

88、rage atHS in Shanghai.These stocks are carefully selected through a quality-based screening process in combination with a review of the HS A-share teams bottom-upresearch.The Q100 constituent companies are reviewed quarterly.30APPENDIX 2MSCI ESG评级免责声明条款:评级免责声明条款:尽管海通国际的信息供货商(包括但不限于MSCI ESG Research

89、LLC及其联属公司(ESG方)从其认为可靠的来源获取信息(信息),ESG方均不担保或保证此处任何数据的原创性,准确性和/或完整性,并明确表示不作出任何明示或默示的担保,包括可商售性和针对特定目的的适用性。该信息只能供阁下内部使用,不得以任何形式复制或重新传播,并不得用作任何金融工具、产品或指数的基础或组成部分。此外,信息本质上不能用于判断购买或出售何种证券,或何时购买或出售该证券。即使已被告知可能造成的损害,ESG方均不承担与此处任何资料有关的任何错误或遗漏所引起的任何责任,也不对任何直接、间接、特殊、惩罚性、附带性或任何其他损害赔偿(包括利润损失)承担任何责任。MSCI ESG Discla

90、imer:Although Haitong Internationals information providers,including without limitation,MSCI ESG Research LLC and its affiliates(the“ESGParties”),obtain information(the“Information”)from sources they consider reliable,none of the ESG Parties warrants or guarantees the originality,accuracy and/orcomp

91、leteness,of any data herein and expressly disclaim all express or implied warranties,including those of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose.TheInformation may only be used for your internal use,may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for,or

92、 a component of,anyfinancial instruments or products or indices.Further,none of the Information can in and of itself be used to determine which securities to buy or sell or when to buyor sell them.None of the ESG Parties shall have any liability for any errors or omissions in connection with any dat

93、a herein,or any liability for any direct,indirect,special,punitive,consequential or any other damages(including lost profits)even if notified of the possibility of such damages.31APPENDIX 2盟浪义利盟浪义利(FIN-ESG)数据通免责声明条款:数据通免责声明条款:在使用盟浪义利(FIN-ESG)数据之前,请务必仔细阅读本条款并同意本声明:第一条 义利(FIN-ESG)数据系由盟浪可持续数字科技有限责任公司(以

94、下简称“本公司”)基于合法取得的公开信息评估而成,本公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。对公司的评估结果仅供参考,并不构成对任何个人或机构投资建议,也不能作为任何个人或机构购买、出售或持有相关金融产品的依据。本公司不对任何个人或机构投资者因使用本数据表述的评估结果造成的任何直接或间接损失负责。第二条 盟浪并不因收到此评估数据而将收件人视为客户,收件人使用此数据时应根据自身实际情况作出自我独立判断。本数据所载内容反映的是盟浪在最初发布本数据日期当日的判断,盟浪有权在不发出通知的情况下更新、修订与发出其他与本数据所载内容不一致或有不同结论的数据。除非另行说明,本数据(如财务业绩数据等)仅代表过

95、往表现,过往的业绩表现不作为日后回报的预测。第三条 本数据版权归本公司所有,本公司依法保留各项权利。未经本公司事先书面许可授权,任何个人或机构不得将本数据中的评估结果用于任何营利性目的,不得对本数据进行修改、复制、编译、汇编、再次编辑、改编、删减、缩写、节选、发行、出租、展览、表演、放映、广播、信息网络传播、摄制、增加图标及说明等,否则因此给盟浪或其他第三方造成损失的,由用户承担相应的赔偿责任,盟浪不承担责任。第四条 如本免责声明未约定,而盟浪网站平台载明的其他协议内容(如盟浪网站用户注册协议盟浪网用户服务(含认证)协议盟浪网隐私政策等)有约定的,则按其他协议的约定执行;若本免责声明与其他协议

96、约定存在冲突或不一致的,则以本免责声明约定为准。SusallWave FIN-ESG Data Service Disclaimer:Please read these terms and conditions below carefully and confirm your agreement and acceptance with these termsbefore using SusallWave FIN-ESG Data Service.1.FIN-ESG Data is produced by SusallWave Digital Technology Co.,Ltd.(In sho

97、rt,SusallWave)s assessment based on legal publicly accessible information.SusallWaveshall not be responsible for any accuracy and completeness of the information.The assessment result is for reference only.It is not for any investment advice for anyindividual or institution and not for basis of purc

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100、cation.Unless expressly stated,the data(e.g.,financial performance data)represents past performance only and the past performance cannot be viewed as the prediction of future return.3.The copyright of this data belongs to SusallWave,and we reserve all rights in accordance with the law.Without the pr

101、ior written permission of our company,noneof individual or institution can use these data for any profitable purpose.Besides,none of individual or institution can take actions such as amendment,replication,translation,compilation,re-editing,adaption,deletion,abbreviation,excerpts,issuance,rent,exhib

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103、m is not contained in this disclaimer but written in other agreements on our website(e.g.User Registration Protocol of SusallWave Website,User Service(including authentication)Agreement of SusallWave Website,Privacy Policy of Susallwave Website),it should be executed according to other agreements.If

104、 there isany difference between this disclaim and other agreements,this disclaimer shall be applied.32APPENDIX 2重要免责声明:重要免责声明:非印度证券的研究报告非印度证券的研究报告:本报告由海通国际证券集团有限公司(“HTISGL”)的全资附属公司海通国际研究有限公司(“HTIRL”)发行,该公司是根据香港证券及期货条例(第571章)持有第4类受规管活动(就证券提供意见)的持牌法团。该研究报告在HTISGL的全资附属公司Haitong International(Japan)K.K.

105、(“HTIJKK”)的协助下发行,HTIJKK是由日本关东财务局监管为投资顾问。印度证券的研究报告:印度证券的研究报告:本报告由从事证券交易、投资银行及证券分析及受Securities and Exchange Board of India(“SEBI”)监管的Haitong Securities IndiaPrivate Limited(“HTSIPL”)所发行,包括制作及发布涵盖BSE Limited(“BSE”)和National Stock Exchange of India Limited(“NSE”)上市公司(统称为印度交易所)的研究报告。HTSIPL于2016年12月22日被收购

106、并成为海通国际证券集团有限公司(“HTISG”)的一部分。所有研究报告均以海通国际为名作为全球品牌,经许可由海通国际证券股份有限公司及/或海通国际证券集团的其他成员在其司法管辖区发布。本文件所载信息和观点已被编译或源自可靠来源,但HTIRL、HTISCL或任何其他属于海通国际证券集团有限公司(“HTISG”)的成员对其准确性、完整性和正确性不做任何明示或暗示的声明或保证。本文件中所有观点均截至本报告日期,如有更改,恕不另行通知。本文件仅供参考使用。文件中提及的任何公司或其股票的说明并非意图展示完整的内容,本文件并非/不应被解释为对证券买卖的明示或暗示地出价或征价。在某些司法管辖区,本文件中提及

107、的证券可能无法进行买卖。如果投资产品以投资者本国货币以外的币种进行计价,则汇率变化可能会对投资产生不利影响。过去的表现并不一定代表将来的结果。某些特定交易,包括设计金融衍生工具的,有产生重大风险的可能性,因此并不适合所有的投资者。您还应认识到本文件中的建议并非为您量身定制。分析师并未考虑到您自身的财务情况,如您的财务状况和风险偏好。因此您必须自行分析并在适用的情况下咨询自己的法律、税收、会计、金融和其他方面的专业顾问,以期在投资之前评估该项建议是否适合于您。若由于使用本文件所载的材料而产生任何直接或间接的损失,HTISG及其董事、雇员或代理人对此均不承担任何责任。除对本文内容承担责任的分析师除

108、外,HTISG及我们的关联公司、高级管理人员、董事和雇员,均可不时作为主事人就本文件所述的任何证券或衍生品持有长仓或短仓以及进行买卖。HTISG的销售员、交易员和其他专业人士均可向HTISG的相关客户和公司提供与本文件所述意见相反的口头或书面市场评论意见或交易策略。HTISG可做出与本文件所述建议或意见不一致的投资决策。但HTIRL没有义务来确保本文件的收件人了解到该等交易决定、思路或建议。请访问海通国际网站 ,查阅更多有关海通国际为预防和避免利益冲突设立的组织和行政安排的内容信息。非美国分析师披露信息:非美国分析师披露信息:本项研究上海品茶上列明的海通国际分析师并未在FINRA进行注册或者取得相

109、应的资格,并且不受美国FINRA有关与本项研究目标公司进行沟通、公开露面和自营证券交易的第2241条规则之限制。33APPENDIX 2IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERFor research reports on non-Indian securities:The research report is issued by Haitong International Research Limited(“HTIRL”),a wholly owned subsidiary ofHaitong International Securities Group Limited(“HTISGL”)a

110、nd a licensed corporation to carry on Type 4 regulated activity(advising on securities)for the purpose ofthe Securities and Futures Ordinance(Cap.571)of Hong Kong,with the assistance of Haitong International(Japan)K.K.(“HTIJKK”),a wholly owned subsidiary ofHTISGL and which is regulated as an Investm

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116、to becomplete and this research report is not,and should not be construed expressly or impliedly as,an offer to buy or sell securities.The securities referred to in thisresearch report may not be eligible for purchase or sale in some jurisdictions.If an investment product is denominated in a currenc

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124、analyst with FINRA and are notsubject to U.S.FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communications with companies that are the subject of the Research;public appearances;and trading securities bya research analyst.35APPENDIX 2分发和地区通知:分发和地区通知:除非下文另有规定,否则任何希望讨论本报告或者就本项研究中讨论的任何证券进行任何交易的收件人均应联系其所在国家或地区的海通国际销售人

125、员。香港投资者的通知事项:香港投资者的通知事项:海通国际证券股份有限公司(“HTISCL”)负责分发该研究报告,HTISCL是在香港有权实施第1类受规管活动(从事证券交易)的持牌公司。该研究报告并不构成证券及期货条例(香港法例第571章)(以下简称“SFO”)所界定的要约邀请,证券要约或公众要约。本研究报告仅提供给SFO所界定的“专业投资者”。本研究报告未经过证券及期货事务监察委员会的审查。您不应仅根据本研究报告中所载的信息做出投资决定。本研究报告的收件人就研究报告中产生或与之相关的任何事宜请联系HTISCL销售人员。美国投资者的通知事项:美国投资者的通知事项:本研究报告由HTIRL,HSIP

126、L或HTIJKK编写。HTIRL,HSIPL,HTIJKK以及任何非HTISG美国联营公司,均未在美国注册,因此不受美国关于研究报告编制和研究分析人员独立性规定的约束。本研究报告提供给依照1934年“美国证券交易法”第15a-6条规定的豁免注册的美国主要机构投资者(“Major U.S.Institutional Investor”)和机构投资者(”U.S.Institutional Investors”)。在向美国机构投资者分发研究报告时,HaitongInternational Securities(USA)Inc.(“HTI USA”)将对报告的内容负责。任何收到本研究报告的美国投资者,

127、希望根据本研究报告提供的信息进行任何证券或相关金融工具买卖的交易,只能通过HTI USA。HTI USA位于340 Madison Avenue,12th Floor,New York,NY 10173,电话(212)351-6050。HTI USA是在美国于U.S.Securities and Exchange Commission(“SEC”)注册的经纪商,也是Financial Industry Regulatory Authority,Inc.(“FINRA”)的成员。HTIUSA不负责编写本研究报告,也不负责其中包含的分析。在任何情况下,收到本研究报告的任何美国投资者,不得直接与分析

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129、工具的投资或收益的价值受汇率波动的影响,可能对该等证券或相关金融工具的价值或收入产生正面或负面影响。美国收件人的所有问询请联系:Haitong International Securities(USA)Inc.340 Madison Avenue,12th FloorNew York,NY 10173联系人电话:(212)351 605036APPENDIX 2DISTRIBUTION AND REGIONAL NOTICESExcept as otherwise indicated below,any Recipient wishing to discuss this research re

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136、ncial instruments based on the information provided in this research report should do so only through HaitongInternational Securities(USA)Inc.(“HTI USA”),located at 340 Madison Avenue,12th Floor,New York,NY 10173,USA;telephone(212)351 6050.HTI USA is a broker-dealer registered in the U.S.with the U.

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141、 comparable to those in effectwithin the U.S.The value of any investment or income from any securities or related financial instruments discussed in this research report denominated in acurrency other than U.S.dollars is subject to exchange rate fluctuations that may have a positive or adverse effec

142、t on the value of or income from such securities orrelated financial instruments.All inquiries by U.S.recipients should be directed to:37APPENDIX 2Haitong International Securities(USA)Inc.340 Madison Avenue,12thFloorNew York,NY 10173Attn:Sales Desk at(212)351 6050中华人民共和国的通知事项:中华人民共和国的通知事项:在中华人民共和国(下

143、称“中国”,就本报告目的而言,不包括香港特别行政区、澳门特别行政区和台湾)只有根据适用的中国法律法规而收到该材料的人员方可使用该材料。并且根据相关法律法规,该材料中的信息并不构成“在中国从事生产、经营活动”。本文件在中国并不构成相关证券的公共发售或认购。无论根据法律规定或其他任何规定,在取得中国政府所有的批准或许可之前,任何法人或自然人均不得直接或间接地购买本材料中的任何证券或任何实益权益。接收本文件的人员须遵守上述限制性规定。加拿大投资者的通知事项:加拿大投资者的通知事项:在任何情况下该等材料均不得被解释为在任何加拿大的司法管辖区内出售证券的要约或认购证券的要约邀请。本材料中所述证券在加拿大

144、的任何要约或出售行为均只能在豁免向有关加拿大证券监管机构提交招股说明书的前提下由Haitong International Securities(USA)Inc.(“HTIUSA”)予以实施,该公司是一家根据National Instrument 31-103 Registration Requirements,Exemptions and Ongoing Registrant Obligations(“NI 31-103”)的规定得到国际交易商豁免(“International Dealer Exemption”)的交易商,位于艾伯塔省、不列颠哥伦比亚省、安大略省和魁北克省。在加拿大,该等材

145、料在任何情况下均不得被解释为任何证券的招股说明书、发行备忘录、广告或公开发行。加拿大的任何证券委员会或类似的监管机构均未审查或以任何方式批准该等材料、其中所载的信息或所述证券的优点,任何与此相反的声明即属违法。在收到该等材料时,每个加拿大的收件人均将被视为属于National Instrument 45-106 Prospectus Exemptions第1.1节或者Securities Act(Ontario)第73.3(1)节所规定的认可投资者(“Accredited Investor”),或者在适用情况下NationalInstrument 31-103第1.1节所规定的许可投资者(“P

146、ermitted Investor”)。新加坡投资者的通知事项:新加坡投资者的通知事项:本研究报告由Haitong International Securities(Singapore)Pte Ltd(“HTISSPL”)公司注册编号201311400G 于新加坡提供。HTISSPL是符合财务顾问法(第110章)(“FAA”)定义的豁免财务顾问,可(a)提供关于证券,集体投资计划的部分,交易所衍生品合约和场外衍生品合约的建议(b)发行或公布有关证券、交易所衍生品合约和场外衍生品合约的研究分析或研究报告。本研究报告仅提供给符合证券及期货法(第289章)第4A条项下规定的机构投资者。对于因本研究报

147、告而产生的或与之相关的任何问题,本研究报告的收件人应通过以下信息与HTISSPL联系:Haitong International Securities(Singapore)Pte.Ltd50 Raffles Place,#33-03 Singapore Land Tower,Singapore 048623电话:(65)6536 192038APPENDIX 2日本投资者的通知事项:日本投资者的通知事项:本研究报告由海通国际证券有限公司所发布,旨在分发给从事投资管理的金融服务提供商或注册金融机构(根据日本金融机构和交易法(“FIEL”)第61(1)条,第17-11(1)条的执行及相关条款)。英

148、国及欧盟投资者的通知事项:英国及欧盟投资者的通知事项:本报告由从事投资顾问的Haitong International Securities Company Limited所发布,本报告只面向有投资相关经验的专业客户发布。任何投资或与本报告相关的投资行为只面对此类专业客户。没有投资经验或相关投资经验的客户不得依赖本报告。Haitong International SecuritiesCompany Limited的分支机构的净长期或短期金融权益可能超过本研究报告中提及的实体已发行股本总额的0.5。特别提醒有些英文报告有可能此前已经通过中文或其它语言完成发布。澳大利亚投资者的通知事项:澳大利亚投

149、资者的通知事项:Haitong International Securities(Singapore)Pte Ltd,Haitong International Securities Company Limited和Haitong InternationalSecurities(UK)Limited分别根据澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(以下简称“ASIC”)第03/1102、03/1103或03/1099号规章在澳大利亚分发本项研究,该等规章免除了根据2001年公司法在澳大利亚为批发客户提供金融服务时海通国际需持有澳大利亚金融服务许可的要求。ASIC的规章副本可在以下网站获取:www.legisl

150、ation.gov.au。海通国际提供的金融服务受外国法律法规规定的管制,该等法律与在澳大利亚所适用的法律存在差异。印度投资者的通知事项:印度投资者的通知事项:本报告由从事证券交易、投资银行及证券分析及受Securities and Exchange Board of India(“SEBI”)监管的Haitong Securities IndiaPrivate Limited(“HTSIPL”)所发布,包括制作及发布涵盖BSE Limited(“BSE”)和National Stock Exchange of India Limited(“NSE”)(统称为印度交易所)研究报告。本项研究仅供

151、收件人使用,未经海通国际的书面同意不得予以复制和再次分发。版权所有:海通国际证券集团有限公司2019年。保留所有权利。39APPENDIX 2Peoples Republic of China(PRC):In the PRC,the research report is directed for the sole use of those who receive the research report in accordance with theapplicable PRC laws and regulations.Further,the information on the research

152、 report does not constitute production and business activities in the PRC underrelevant PRC laws.This research report does not constitute a public offer of the security,whether by sale or subscription,in the PRC.Further,no legal or naturalpersons of the PRC may directly or indirectly purchase any of

153、 the security or any beneficial interest therein without obtaining all prior PRC government approvals orlicenses that are required,whether statutorily or otherwise.Persons who come into possession of this research are required to observe these restrictions.Notice to Canadian Investors:Under no circu

154、mstances is this research report to be construed as an offer to sell securities or as a solicitation of an offer to buysecurities in any jurisdiction of Canada.Any offer or sale of the securities described herein in Canada will be made only under an exemption from the requirements tofile a prospectu

155、s with the relevant Canadian securities regulators and only by Haitong International Securities(USA)Inc.,a dealer relying on the“international dealerexemption”under National Instrument 31-103 Registration Requirements,Exemptions and Ongoing Registrant Obligations(“NI 31-103”)in Alberta,British Colum

156、bia,Ontario and Quebec.This research report is not,and under no circumstances should be construed as,a prospectus,an offering memorandum,an advertisement or apublic offering of any securities in Canada.No securities commission or similar regulatory authority in Canada has reviewed or in any way pass

157、ed upon this researchreport,the information contained herein or the merits of the securities described herein and any representation to the contrary is an offence.Upon receipt of thisresearch report,each Canadian recipient will be deemed to have represented that the investor is an“accredited investo

158、r”as such term is defined in section 1.1 ofNational Instrument 45-106 Prospectus Exemptions or,in Ontario,in section 73.3(1)of the Securities Act(Ontario),as applicable,and a“permitted client”as suchterm is defined in section 1.1 of NI 31-103,respectively.Notice to Singapore investors:This research

159、report is provided in Singapore by or through Haitong International Securities(Singapore)Pte Ltd(“HTISSPL”)Co RegNo 201311400G.HTISSPL is an Exempt Financial Adviser under the Financial Advisers Act(Cap.110)(“FAA”)to(a)advise on securities,units in a collective investmentscheme,exchange-traded deriv

160、atives contracts and over-the-counter derivatives contracts and(b)issue or promulgate research analyses or research reports onsecurities,exchange-traded derivatives contracts and over-the-counter derivatives contracts.This research report is only provided to institutional investors,withinthe meaning

161、 of Section 4A of the Securities and Futures Act(Cap.289).Recipients of this research report are to contact HTISSPL via the details below in respect ofany matters arising from,or in connection with,the research report:40APPENDIX 2Haitong International Securities(Singapore)Pte.Ltd.10 Collyer Quay,#19

162、-01-#19-05 Ocean Financial Centre,Singapore 049315Telephone:(65)6536 1920 Notice to Japanese investors:This research report is distributed by Haitong International Securities Company Limited and intended to be distributed to FinancialServices Providers or Registered Financial Institutions engaged in

163、 investment management(as defined in the Japan Financial Instruments and Exchange Act(FIEL)Art.61(1),Order for Enforcement of FIEL Art.17-11(1),and related articles).Notice to UK and European Union investors:This research report is distributed by Haitong International Securities Company Limited.This

164、 research is directed atpersons having professional experience in matters relating to investments.Any investment or investment activity to which this research relates is available only tosuch persons or will be engaged in only with such persons.Persons who do not have professional experience in matt

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166、 in English may have been published previously in Chinese or anotherlanguage.Notice to Australian investors:The research report is distributed in Australia by Haitong International Securities(Singapore)Pte Ltd,Haitong International SecuritiesCompany Limited,and Haitong International Securities(UK)Li

167、mited in reliance on ASIC Class Order 03/1102,03/1103 or 03/1099,respectively,which exempts thoseHTISG entities from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license under the Corporations Act 2001 in respect of the financial services it provides towholesale clients in Australia.A co

168、py of the ASIC Class Orders may be obtained at the following website,www.legislation.gov.au.Financial services provided byHaitong International Securities(Singapore)Pte Ltd,Haitong International Securities Company Limited,and Haitong International Securities(UK)Limited areregulated under foreign law

169、s and regulatory requirements,which are different from the laws applying in Australia.Notice to Indian investors:The research report is distributed by Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HSIPL”),an Indian company and a Securities and ExchangeBoard of India(“SEBI”)registered Stock Broker,Mercha

170、nt Banker and Research Analyst that,inter alia,produces and distributes research reports covering listedentities on the BSE Limited(“BSE”)and the National Stock Exchange of India Limited(“NSE”)(collectively referred to as“Indian Exchanges”).This research report is intended for the recipients only and may not be reproduced or redistributed without the written consent of an authorized signatory of HTISG.Copyright:Haitong International Securities Group Limited 2019.All rights reserved.http:/

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