1、Navigating an uncertainfutureAn exploration of Chinas influence on the Netherlands future maritime logistics hub functionBart Kuipers,Liam van Son,Frans-Paul van der Putten,Xiaoxue Martin,Sanne Zwart,Erik Krijgsman,Daan AbrahamsStudy conducted on behalf of:Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Manage

2、ment&Ministry of Foreign AffairsNavigating an uncertain futureAn exploration of Chinas influence on the Netherlands future maritime logistics hub functionBart Kuipers Liam van Son Frans-Paul van der Putten Xiaoxue Martin Sanne Zwart Erik Krijgsman Daan AbrahamsClingendael ReportOctober 2022October 2

3、022 Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael.Cover photo:Map of the Belt and Road Initiative Clingendael&LeidenAsiaCentreThe research for and production of this report has been conducted within the framework agreement for the Chinese Knowledge Network(CKN).The aim of the CKN is t

4、o promote strategic knowledge development about China for the national government of the Netherlands.Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed,rests solely with the authors and does not constitute,nor should be construed as,an endorsement by the secretariat of the Chinese Knowle

5、dge Network and/or the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management.This report was written in the period from November 2021 to May 2022 by the Erasmus Centre for Urban,Port and Transport Economics at Erasmus University Rotterdam and the Clingendael

6、China Centre.It was compiled on the basis of insights from a large number of stakeholders and under direct guidance from the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management.The authors of this report bear full responsibility for its content and for any errors or inaccuracies.Information on this repo

7、rt can be obtained from Bart Kuipers(bkuipersese.eur.nl)and Xiaoxue Martin(xmartinclingendael.org).Information in this report may be used provided the source is acknowledged.About the Clingendael InstituteThe Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael is a leading think tank and ac

8、ademy on international affairs.Through our analyses,training and public platform activities we aim to inspire and equip governments,businesses,and civil society to contribute to a secure,sustainable and just world.About Erasmus UPTErasmus Center for Urban,Port and Transport Economics is an independe

9、nt expertise center founded by Erasmus University Rotterdam.It is our mission to help current and future leaders in port and logistics,city and region and urban mobility to make better decisions.We do this through high-quality research and education.Our experts develop thought leadership by connecti

10、ng high-quality academic research and in-depth knowledge of the international practice in which we operate.The Clingendael Institute Erasmus UPTP.O.Box 93080 P.O.Box 17382509 AB The Hague 3000 DR RotterdamThe Netherlands The NetherlandsFollow us on social media Follow us on social media clingendaelo

11、rg ErasmusUPT The Clingendael Institute ErasmusUPT The Clingendael Institute clingendael_institute Email:upt.officeese.eur.nl Clingendael Institute Website:www.eur.nl/uptEmail:infoclingendael.orgWebsite:www.clingendael.orgAbout the authorsBart Kuipers PhD is a senior researcher port economics at Era

12、smus UPT.In particular freight transport and especially containerisation is one of his areas of expertise.He indicates the importance of the container for the Dutch economy and in particular the future economic impact of freight transport and containers.An important component are scenario studies of

13、 possible future developments of national and international seaports.Liam van Son is a junior researcher at Erasmus UPT.His recent research investigated the governance of socio-economic development programs specific to transport infrastructure in the Russian Arctic.At Erasmus UPT,he is active in var

14、ious research projects in the field of port economics,most notably pertaining to sustainable development.Frans-Paul van der Putten PhD is a Senior Research Associate at the Clingendael Institute.His area of expertise is the geopolitical role of China.He is the author of De Wederopstanding van China:

15、Van prooi tot wereldmacht(The Resurrection of China:A geopolitical history of China from 1840).After leaving his position as Senior Research Fellow in 2022,he started his own business as an independent expert on China and geopolitics.Xiaoxue Martin is a Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute.H

16、er work focuses on the contemporary politics and international relations of China,in particular Hong Kong and Taiwan affairs,and dependence on China.Sanne Zwart is Research Assistant at the Clingendael Institute.Erik Krijgsman is Research Assistant at the Clingendael Institute.Daan Abrahams is Resea

17、rch Assistant at the Clingendael Institute.1PrefaceThe title of this report is Navigating an uncertain future a title that is regularly given to scenario studies,by Shell among others.The subtitle of this report is:“An exploration of Chinas influence on the future Dutch maritime logistics hub functi

18、on”.This subtitle indicates the subject matter of this scenario study.We nevertheless also wish to highlight the great uncertainty of the present situation.The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a shift in the world order,only a short time after the coronavirus pandemic that also brought unprece

19、dented changes,not least due to Chinas maintenance of lockdowns in the major seaports.The war in Ukraine will have a lasting weakening effect on the New Silk Road rail link between China and Europe.But Chinas assertive response to Nancy Pelosis visit to Taiwan also makes an outcome we did not consid

20、er an ultimate invasion of Taiwan by China more credible.Such a development has not been included in the scenarios developed in this report,simply because it was not as credible a year ago.Scenarios are generally closely related to the period in which they are developed.These developments have furth

21、er increased the uncertainty about the future and once again highlighted the impact of geopolitics among the major powers.Central to this report is the production of scenarios to explore Chinas influence on the Netherlands future maritime logistics hub function.This influence relates particularly to

22、 the Netherlands central position and strategic autonomy as a maritime logistics hub.A key output of this study is a set of possible actions the Dutch government and the maritime logistics sector could take to anticipate the potential role that China could play in logistics in Europe and hence also

23、in the Netherlands.The future of Chinas Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)or the Global Development Initiative(GDI)as it is now styled,but whose precise impact remains unclear is likely to be strongly affected by Russias attack on Ukraine and by Chinas response to developments surrounding Taiwan.Future r

24、elations between China and Russia are therefore very important for the global geopolitical situation,naturally alongside the relationship between China and the United States.These relationships are undergoing major change.The scenario analysis in this report seeks to take account of recent factors a

25、s far as possible while taking stock of the uncertainties.By basing the study on these uncertainties,it has been possible to conduct a thorough scenario analysis with support from those involved.The Erasmus Center for Urban,Port and Transport Economics and the Clingendael China Centre conducted this

26、 study at the end of 2021 and in the early spring of 2022 on behalf of the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.This study is based on desk research and two workshops with representatives 2Navigating an uncertain future|Clingendael Report,October 2022of

27、 the Dutch government and representatives of businesses and industry organisations associated with the maritime cluster in the Netherlands.We would like to express our sincere gratitude to them for their participation in the workshops and their comments on our findings.After briefly discussing the p

28、urpose of the study in the first chapter,in Chapter 2 we explain how the study was conducted.In Chapter 3 we first describe the scenarios that were initially developed in outline form and subsequently elaborated for the maritime logistics hub function.In Chapter 4 we consider the possible actions th

29、at could be taken to address the likely evolution of Chinas influence on the Dutch maritime logistics hub function in the decades ahead.The annexes contain important background information that we have used to develop the scenarios.In Annex 1 we present four exploratory assessments used to identify

30、critical uncertainties as a basis for the developed scenarios.Annex 2 describes these uncertainties in detail.In Annex 3 we describe weak signals,developments indicating that a particular scenario will materialise.We very much hope that this report will make a useful contribution to defining a logis

31、tics strategy with regard to China.Erasmus Centre for Urban,Port and Transport EconomicsClingendael China CentreRotterdam/The Hague,June 20223SummaryIntroductionThe maritime logistics hub function is of strategic importance to the Netherlands as a trading country.The Netherlands positions itself as

32、the Gateway to Europe thanks to its advanced logistics network and plays an important role in the global economy.This position nevertheless faces an uncertain future:there is no guarantee that the Netherlands will remain a leader in the years ahead.Geopolitics,and particularly the influence of China

33、,will have a major impact on the Dutch maritime logistics hub function.On behalf of the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs,this report examines Chinas influence on the Netherlands maritime logistics hub function.The main question posed in the study is

34、:How is Chinas influence on the central position of the Netherlands maritime logistics hub function likely to evolve in the decades ahead and what possible actions could the Dutch government take in response to it?The purpose of this study is to assess scenarios as a basis for possible actions by th

35、e Dutch government and the Dutch maritime logistics sector,particularly with regard to the Netherlands central position and strategic autonomy as a maritime logistics hub.Descriptions of the scenariosFour scenarios have been developed for the future of the Dutch maritime logistics hub function.These

36、 scenarios result from the identified uncertainties and exploratory assessments(Annexes 1 and 2)and take account of uncertainties involving a high degree of impact and probability.This leads to two scenario axes:one concerning the degree of globalisation and one concerning Chinas role in European lo

37、gistics.4Navigating an uncertain future|Clingendael Report,October 2022Figure S.1 Scenario outline:key pointsBelt and Road RulesThe first scenario is entitled Belt and Road Rules.In this future scenario China secures a major role in European logistics and its Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)thrives on

38、a high degree of globalisation.China has the power to set the logistical rules.This Belt and Road Rules scenario assumes that the BRI evolves in line with the Chinese governments plan,in other words that China promotes and benefits from global economic integration by investing strategically in marit

39、ime logistics infrastructure.The new links generate growth in world trade and increase Chinas import and export volumes.Demand for logistics service providers consequently also grows,causing the logistics market to flourish.This gives Chinese logistics operators such as Cosco Shipping a central role

40、 in global networks and value chains,as well as in European logistics.This could involve market concentration due to the formation of conglomerates,Chinese majority interests in container terminals at major European ports,goods flows following BRI routes and determined by Chinese logistics titans an

41、d a further shift in the economic centre of gravity to Asia.The developments described in this scenario result in a strong Dutch strategic dependence on China.Chinas dominance in the various areas,from flows of goods to the energy transition,value chains and standards,will limit the Netherlands abil

42、ity to act autonomously.Belt and Road LimitedThe Belt and Road Limited scenario assumes deglobalisation,with China playing a strong role in European logistics but facing curbs on its ambitions in Europe.The Belt 5Navigating an uncertain future|Clingendael Report,October 2022and Road Limited scenario

43、 shares a number of broad similarities with the first scenario,the difference being that Chinas BRI is limited by a deglobalising world.Hence the BRI does not follow the Chinese governments original plan and fails to boost global economic integration.Despite the slowdown in growth of total world tra

44、de,however,Chinese players are able to secure a strong role in European logistics in this scenario.As part of the BRI,some of Chinas foreign direct investment will go to Europe,in areas such as logistics,trade,retail and IT services to promote Chinas technological development.Chinese operators will

45、thus gain a strong position in strategic sectors in the Netherlands and Europe.This scenario results in Dutch strategic dependence on China,albeit to a lesser extent than in the Belt and Road Rules scenario.The dependence manifests itself in fewer areas than in Belt and Road Rules,as there is less e

46、mphasis on goods flows from and to China and technical standards set by China.Chinese operators nevertheless remain important for foreign direct investment in the Netherlands,the energy transition,strategic sectors and intraregional trade,so the dependence remains significant.Back to the NinetiesIn

47、the Back to the Nineties scenario the globalisation process has continued,but China has not been able to secure a strong role in European logistics;on the contrary,there is a return to the golden days of European logistics.This Back to the Nineties scenario anticipates continued globalisation due to

48、 growth in world trade,with China active mainly outside Europe and building up a strong position there.An important feature of this development is the successful rollout of alternative infrastructure projects alongside the BRI.The European Global Gateway strategy and the G7s Partnership for Global I

49、nfrastructure and Investment(PGII)the former Build Back Better World initiative of the G7 proceed according to plan.Economic integration grows around the world and is determined not only by Chinas conditions under the BRI.Protectionism and trade wars give way to liberalisation.As in the 1990s,the en

50、tire logistics sector benefits from globalisation.European players are able to defend their position:instead of Chinese operators being dominant,non-Chinese operators will also be able to remain competitive and set international standards.In this scenario the Netherlands has limited strategic depend

51、ence on China,given Chinas weak role in European logistics,the staying power of European operators in global logistics and a favourable environment for world trade.Own Region FirstThe Own Region First scenario features deglobalisation and a weak role for China in European logistics.Unlike the other

52、scenarios,the basis here is Own Region First and China last.This is characterised by regionalisation and growing protectionism on the part of the US,Europe and China.Trade barriers and bloc formation hamper free trade and the economy becomes strongly politicised.This scenario appears to build on the

53、 6Navigating an uncertain future|Clingendael Report,October 2022Russia-China bloc that has coalesced since the war in Ukraine.An increasingly complex and threatening attitude on the part of China towards Taiwan also plays an important role in this scenario.The dramatic economic collapse of the Russi

54、an economy following the war in Ukraine has nevertheless made China aware of the economic risks of such an invasion.Nationalism grows:the European population takes a predominantly negative view of globalisation and Chinas(and Russias)role in it.Hence there is strong public pressure to introduce meas

55、ures against China and for their own region.Chinese foreign direct investment in Europe will therefore be blocked,while free competition is encouraged within Europe.This results in a decoupling of China and other countries in the major trading blocs.In this scenario the Netherlands has little strate

56、gic dependence on China,because Chinese operators are excluded from Europe as far as possible.Impact of scenarios on the maritime logistics hub functionHow do the general scenarios outlined above impact the hub function?Specific implications for the hub function have been identified on the basis of

57、the general scenarios outlined above,with a quantitative estimate being given of the impact of the scenarios.Figure S.2 Logic scenario:implications for hub function7Navigating an uncertain future|Clingendael Report,October 2022Table S.1 Key figures of scenario analysis;implications for hub function

58、Historical growthSituation in 2021Belt and Road RulesBelt and Road LtdBack to the 90sOwn Region First90-2000-20Scenarios for 2050Container transshipment in Rotterdam(million TEU)1529223313Container transshipment in Rotterdam(avge.ann.growth)4,7%2,6%2,4%1,3%2,8%-0,5%Chinas market share in European se

59、aports10%30%20%13%5%Rotterdam market share*27%28%28%32%30%Port of Antwerp-Bruges market share*26%30%28%26%25%*Market share in TEU:Saint Petersburg-Le Havre range:Saint Petersburg,Gdansk,Hamburg,Bremerhaven,Rotterdam,Port of Antwerp-Bruges,Le Havre,Felixstowe,SouthamptonBelt and Road RulesThere are f

60、ive key implications for the maritime logistics hub function in the Belt and Road Rules scenario,in which strong globalisation is combined with a dominant Chinese position in European logistics:1.A strong build-up of Chinese operators in European deep-sea container transshipment,with Cosco having a

61、dominant hub function in the Port of Antwerp-Bruges(combination of the ports of Antwerp and Zeebrugge),giving this port a bigger market share than Rotterdam in 2050.2.A strong network of intermodal terminals connecting the seaports and the New Silk Road,with Duisburg playing a key role.3.BRI receive

62、s a strong boost from,among other things,the Polar Silk Road and a high-speed rail link between China and Europe.4.A network of logistics parks and intermodal terminals in Eastern Europe.5.LOGINK,a port community system that has gained a dominant position and set a new standard.These implications me

63、an China has a degree of logistical and strategic autonomy in Europe and there is a strategic dependence on China.China determines how a large part of the flows operate.8Navigating an uncertain future|Clingendael Report,October 2022Belt and Road LimitedThe Belt and Road Limited scenario assumes degl

64、obalisation,with China playing a strong role in European logistics but facing curbs on its ambitions in Europe.Implications for logistics are:1.Very limited growth in world trade and container transshipment because the many years of disruption to container chains lead to strong nearsourcing and loca

65、l production for local markets.2.Chinese producers invest heavily in a European production infrastructure.3.This increases intra-European flows,with Chinese operators focusing strongly on the development of an intra-European logistics infrastructure.4.Here too there is a strong role for Chinas LOGIN

66、K port community system.5.Rotterdam develops as the European hub for rare earth metals.Clear limits are set to Chinas European ambitions in this scenario,however,particularly given the danger of market disruption and an uneven playing field.Back to the NinetiesIn the Back to the Nineties scenario th

67、e globalisation process has continued,but China has not been able to secure a strong role in European logistics.There is:1.High growth in the container transshipment volume and the delivery of new logistics concepts in the container world,focused on high-value market segments such as high-tech and f

68、resh products.2.A leading role for Rotterdam in digital innovation and an infrastructure for sustainable fuels,leading to a strong increase in Rotterdams market share.3.Strong and proactive investment by European shipowners has in many cases left Chinese logistics companies lacking in terms of Europ

69、ean logistics infrastructure.4.The wave of globalisation is driven particularly by the global interplay between major,mainly Western players in logistics and globally active,also Western,shippers.5.LOGINK is rejected and a European Basic Data Infrastructure becomes the new logistics standard.Own Reg

70、ion FirstThe Own Region First scenario features deglobalisation and a weak role for China in European logistics.In this scenario the volume of containerised world trade decreases,so the port of Rotterdam declines from a transshipment volume of 15 million standard containers in 2021 to 13 million in

71、2050.The implications are:1.Even more intense trade wars and relatively strong albeit incomplete decoupling of China from the West,causing a fall in world trade.2.Natural disasters driven by climate changes mean a far greater need for sustainability and a circular economy,leading to much more self-s

72、ufficient economic and logistical business models.9Navigating an uncertain future|Clingendael Report,October 20223.This also means much greater emphasis on the use of rare earth metals and the need to create a degree of self-sufficiency.4.This scenario is driven by strong digitisation,spurred on by

73、a European chip industry and the break-up of the major American network companies into regional providers.5.Regional flows are much more important in this scenario;these regional transport concepts are increasingly carbon-neutral and autonomous.Having presented the scenarios,we outline below the mai

74、n conclusions and recommendations(possible actions).These conclusions and recommendations are closely linked to related scenarios which is important for assessing the conclusions and recommendations.These may therefore differ depending on the scenario.We also make a number of recommendations that ap

75、ply to all four scenarios.10ConclusionsConclusions based on an influential China in the decades ahead,regardless of the extent of globalisation/deglobalisation(Scenarios 1 and 2)Cooperation will be important but leads to dilemmasChinas large and influential role in the maritime sphere further increa

76、ses the importance to the Netherlands of cooperation with Chinese actors in trade,investment and technology as well as sustainability in relation to the maritime logistics hub function.Cooperation in these areas may be necessary to sustain the long-term competitiveness of the Dutch economy.A strong,

77、economically competitive position is essential not only to maintain a high level of prosperity,but also for the Netherlands long-term ability to defend its own values and security interests.However,cooperation with China is increasingly at odds with the objective of protecting the Netherlands strate

78、gic room for manoeuvre and the competitiveness of Dutch companies.The Dutch government consequently faces frequent dilemmas which,moreover,become increasingly urgent and complex.It will probably become increasingly difficult to strike a balance between maintaining a prominent maritime logistics hub

79、function and protecting strategic room for manoeuvre.Cohesion within both the EU and the Netherlands comes under pressure from an influential ChinaAn influential China may mean that EU member states can more easily be played off against each other in terms of logistics infrastructure and goods flows

80、.Cohesion within the Netherlands is also under pressure.There are growing conflicts of interest particularly between companies that benefit primarily from cooperation with China and those that mainly have to compete with Chinese companies.Furthermore,in these scenarios there may be a conflict of int

81、erest between the government at national level which seeks to balance national security against the national economic interest and the Port of Rotterdam,which benefits particularly from cooperation with powerful Chinese partners.Market forces:lack of reciprocity gives Chinese operators a competitive

82、 advantageDutch companies are less and less able to rely on market forces to compete with their Chinese counterparts,as these are backed financially by a globally influential Chinese government and there is no reciprocal market access.This gives Chinese companies a competitive advantage over Dutch c

83、ompanies.11Navigating an uncertain future|Clingendael Report,October 2022 Politicisation of the maritime logistics sector due to the role of the Chinese stateThe role of the Chinese state as the ultimate controlling entity in Chinese companies in various sectors and parts of production chains leads

84、to the politicisation of the maritime logistics sector.Chinese companies also prefer to work primarily with other Chinese companies(in various subsectors).Chinese operators can avoid or seek cooperation with certain countries/actors for political reasons(possibly on the instructions of the Chinese g

85、overnment).Economic power is therefore increasingly likely to be concentrated in the hands of political actors in the maritime logistics sector.American pressure is likely to increase furtherGeopolitical tensions between China and the United States will probably persist due to Chinas prominent role

86、in the(globalising or deglobalising)world economy.The Dutch government may therefore encounter growing American pressure aimed at limiting European cooperation with China in the maritime logistics field.US concerns about possible Chinese espionage or sabotage(possibly through the cyber domain)with r

87、egard to the military function of the port of Rotterdam may add to that pressure.Conclusions specific to an influential China amid continuing globalisation(Scenario 1)Cooperation:advantages of hub function amid continuing globalisationCooperation with China has major potential economic advantages fo

88、r the Netherlands role as a maritime logistics hub and transit country for trade flows between Europe and the rest of the world.Maritime operations:indirect relations also strengthen Chinas influence in the hub functionThe cooperation versus containment dilemma is strongest in the maritime operation

89、s segment.The combination of Chinese investments and roles in the relevant sectors will give the Chinese government considerable influence over goods flows.This will even be the case if Chinese companies acquire no majority holdings in individual terminals but China generates significant influence t

90、hrough minority interests or other ownership structures.The companies involved in container transshipment and overseas trade thus risk falling within the Chinese sphere of economic influence,reducing the Netherlands strategic autonomy.12Navigating an uncertain future|Clingendael Report,October 2022C

91、onclusions specific to an influential China in a context of deglobalisation(Scenario 2)Cooperation:aimed mainly at regional assets and intra-EU tradeThe potential economic benefits for the Netherlands of cooperation with China lie primarily in attracting Chinese investments and establishing regional

92、 head offices,logistics centres and production sites in the Netherlands,and in the Netherlandss role as a hub for intra-EU trade.Hinterland operations:here too there is a risk of strategic dependence on ChinaIn a context of deglobalisation,the cooperation versus containment dilemma also plays a role

93、 in maritime operations,but even more so in the hinterland operations segment.The rail,inland shipping,road transport and short-sea subsectors could benefit greatly from investments by and cooperation with Chinese actors.However,in this segment particularly there is a risk of unilateral strategic de

94、pendence on China.Conclusions based on a weak role for China in the decades ahead(Scenarios3/4)Small risk of strategic dependence on China with a weak roleThe distinction between continuing globalisation and deglobalisation is of limited relevance to the China policy if China has no influential role

95、 in the maritime logistics hub function in the future.In both scenarios(3 and 4)there is no risk of the Netherlands becoming unilaterally strategically dependent on China.Moreover,the potential contribution and value added of cooperation with China on the Dutch hub function is small.No coordination

96、necessary if China has weak role in logistics,but geopolitics may become urgentDutch companies determine individually whether and how they deal with China and Chinese actors.There is no need for coordination within the sector or with the government.A China-specific strategy for the maritime logistic

97、s sector/hub function is only necessary with regard to national security.Chinas economic role is limited,but if rival geopolitical blocs emerge,China may become a military rival to the EU as a geopolitical and military partner of the US.In that case,safeguarding the military function of maritime log

98、istics hubs,for example against possible cyberattacks and with regard to the port of Rotterdams role in military provisioning,will take on extra urgency.13Navigating an uncertain future|Clingendael Report,October 2022Recommendations/possible actionsBelow we provide policy recommendations:what action

99、 should be taken if the identified scenarios materialise?Here we assume scenarios in which China has a major impact with regard to the maritime logistics hub function(Belt and Road Rules/Limited).We also look at various segments within the maritime logistics hub function.Recommendations with regard

100、to the maritime logistics hub function in general Urgent action:proactivity towards China,not waiting and seeingDutch actors must allow for the possibility that China will become a dominant player in the decades ahead,but also for the possibility that China will be of only limited relevance to the D

101、utch maritime logistics hub function.It is important that the government does not wait until it is clear whether China is indeed dominant.The Netherlands must anticipate a possibly dominant China well in advance to maintain a long-term ability to act autonomously with regard to China in relation to

102、the maritime logistics hub function.Chinese actors are already very influential in the international maritime logistics field,and China-related goods flows(particularly to and from Germany)play a major role in the Dutch maritime logistics hub function.As Chinas current punitive measures against Lith

103、uania demonstrate,there is a risk that future diplomatic tensions with the Netherlands may lead to the Chinese government pressuring or instructing Chinese companies to avoid the Netherlands as a maritime logistics hub.The Dutch government must decide urgently on the recommendations below in view of

104、 the time required to implement them.Strategic importance of technological and economic cooperation with ChinaIf China further strengthens its influential position in trade and in the maritime sector at a global level,the Netherlands role as the EUs principal maritime logistics hub can only be maint

105、ained if the Dutch government maintains good relations with China.China potentially has a lot to offer as an investor,trading partner and source of technology and innovation.In the long term a strong economic base for the Netherlands is a precondition not only for prosperity but also for security an

106、d the maintenance of Dutch values.Economic and technological cooperation with China must therefore be maintained and strengthened where possible.Reciprocity as a precondition for new Chinese investments in the hub functionThe EU must make new Chinese investments in the maritime logistics sector/hub

107、function in the European market conditional on European companies being afforded the same access in China.Existing Chinese investments in areas in which similar 14Navigating an uncertain future|Clingendael Report,October 2022European investments in China are not possible contribute to Chinas strateg

108、ic dependence on the EU and should preferably be maintained.However,if there is no prospect of reciprocal investment access on the Chinese side,consideration must be given to reducing existing Chinese investments(possibly selectively)in the maritime logistics sector.Pushing for a strategic framework

109、 for the EU to strengthen European strategic autonomyThe Dutch government should push for a strategic policy framework for the maritime logistics sector at EU level to ensure that competition between EU member states does not further strengthen Chinas dominant position.The EU will then be better abl

110、e to anticipate and possibly prevent a situation whereby the channels through which goods enter and leave the EU are largely determined not by the market but by the Chinese government.The strategic framework must be focused on protecting market forces in the maritime logistics sector where possible,

111、and aim for European strategic autonomy where necessary.A certain reduction in national autonomy within the EU for the Netherlands and other EU member states is unavoidable in order to ensure strategic autonomy with regard to China.Better overview by monitoring Chinese influence in container markets

112、The Dutch government must continuously monitor Chinese influence in global container shipping and European terminal management and in particular in the relationship between Chinas influence in those two subsectors.Information from this monitoring function should be made available to the European Com

113、mission and other EU member states.Changes to competition rules and assessment to counter external power concentrationThe EU must change its competition rules to prevent external powers amassing economic strength in sectors and value chains through individual companies,both within the EU and in the

114、international maritime sphere,if European strategic autonomy is affected.New Chinese investments in the EU and mergers between Chinese companies must be assessed for their relevance to concentrations of political and economic power.When assessing the possible concentration of political and economic

115、power,a distinction must be drawn between Chinese and Hong Kong companies,state and private enterprises and the extent to which state enterprises are listed on a stock exchange.Scope of the investment assessment:view Chinese influence from a broad network perspectiveWhen assessing new direct investm

116、ents,take account of the combined effect of minority interests held by various Chinese actors,and of investments by non-Chinese 15Navigating an uncertain future|Clingendael Report,October 2022actors(from within or outside the EU)that are part of or closely associated with Chinese actors.Importance o

117、f business climate:transparency and predictability in investment assessmentIn order to take account of possible Chinese dominance at a time of deglobalisation,it is important that the Netherlands remains attractive as a business location for Chinese regional head offices,logistics operations and Chi

118、nese investments in hinterland operations.Relevant investments include both greenfield investments(establishing new businesses)and investments in existing Dutch companies(provided they are consistent with the conditions of reciprocity and political and economic power concentration referred to above)

119、.Relevant factors for an attractive business climate for Chinese businesses include transparency and predictability in investment assessment,availability of education in the Chinese language and an accessible procedure for visa applications.Refining the Netherlands China strategy:weighing the advant

120、ages/disadvantages and adopting a sector-specific focusThe Dutch government must keep in mind that it will face China-related dilemmas more often than at present,and with increasing urgency and complexity.An ad hoc approach to future dilemmas will not be sufficient to strike a balance between mainta

121、ining a prominent maritime logistics hub function and protecting strategic room for manoeuvre.Two aspects of the Netherlands existing China strategy(set out in the 2019 China Memorandum)must be refined.First,the strategy must give clearer direction when weighing the pros and cons of cooperation with

122、 China,and when striking a balance between market forces and national security.It should be borne in mind that the existing market forces cannot be maintained if Chinas role in the international maritime logistics sphere grows further.Second,the strategy must be more focused on individual sectors,in

123、cluding in any case the maritime logistics sector.Recommendations with regard to maritime operations and infrastructure:(container)transshipment,ocean shipping,overseas trade,relationship with world trade Competition regulation at NL and EU level:Consortia Block Exemption RegulationThe debate on the

124、 future Consortia Block Exemption Regulation(exemptions granted by the EU for container alliances)must expressly focus on the possible consequences of terminating or not terminating this regulation and the consequences for the power base of Chinese shipowners in relation to European seaports and shi

125、powners.16Navigating an uncertain future|Clingendael Report,October 2022 Hub for rare earth metals in the port of RotterdamInvestigate the port of Rotterdams potential as a location for a European centre for rare earth metals,which is crucial for the development of the energy transition.The primary

126、need is to build up a strategic inventory,possibly taking advantage of the strong position of commodity traders in Rotterdam,with a view to limiting any unilateral strategic dependence on China or strengthening mutual dependencies in the relationship with China.Recommendations with regard to hinterl

127、and operations:rail/inland shipping/road/short-sea,logistics/intermodal hubs,New Silk Route(BRI rail)Focus attention not only on seaports but also on hinterland operations in view of the possibility of deglobalisation.Inland shipping fleet:Investigate the probability,advantages and disadvantages of

128、the possibility of Europes inland shipping fleet being built in China,and its relevance to the Netherlands maritime logistics hub function.Recommendations with regard to logistics support operations:information technology,change management,support activities:insurance,finance,legal,etc.Investigate t

129、he advantages and disadvantages of technological cooperation in the maritime logistics sector,particularly with regard to the role of LOGINK as a platform for data exchange between ports,of Huawei in the functioning of the container terminals and of Chinese containers scanners for customs checks.Sta

130、ndards:monitor the use and application of Chinese technological standards for the maritime logistics hub function.Develop standards at EU level,such as those currently being initiated through the development of a Basic Data Infrastructure(BDI).Recommendations with regard to regional impact:warehouses/re-export operations,foreign direct investment by China Investigate the advantages and disadvantages of Chinese investments in or leasing of real estate for storage or other regional activities related to the maritime logistics hub function.