1、Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesRMIs Global Energy Transformation Guide:Electricity November 2022G L O BA L G U I D Ermi.org/2Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EAbout RMIRMI is an independent nonprofit founded in 1982 that transforms global energy systems through market-driven sol

2、utions to align with a 1.5C future and secure a clean,prosperous,zero-carbon future for all.We work in the worlds most critical geographies and engage businesses,policymakers,communities,and NGOs to identify and scale energy system interventions that will cut greenhouse gas emissions at least 50 per

3、cent by 2030.RMI has offices in Basalt and Boulder,Colorado;New York City;Oakland,California;Washington,D.C.;and Beijing.rmi.org/3Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D ECara GoldenbergAnibal GomezLeia GuccioneGenevieve LillisMatt SugiharaAuthors listed alphabetically.ContactsMatt Sugih

4、ara,msugihararmi.org Cara Goldenberg,cgoldenbergrmi.orgCopyrights and Citation Matt Sughiara,Cara Goldenberg,Anibal Gomez,Leia Guccione,and Genevieve Lillis,Fossil Fuel Transition Strategies RMIs Global Energy Transformation Guide:Electricity,RMI,2022,https:/rmi.org/global-energy-transformation-guid

5、e-fossil-fuel-transition-strategiesRMI values collaboration and aims to accelerate the energy transition through sharing knowledge and insights.We therefore allow interested parties to reference,share,and cite our work through the Creative Commons CC BY-SA 4.0 license.https:/creativecommons.org/lice

6、nses/by-sa/4.0/.All images used are from iS unless otherwise noted.Authorsrmi.org/4Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EThe authors thank the following individuals for their helpful insights and/or feedback on this report.All errors remain our own.RMIDiego AngelKingsmill BondKoben Ca

7、lhounFrancis ElishaAlex EngelRachit KansalDhroovaa KhannanWhitney MannLaetitia de MarezAcknowledgmentsTyeler MatsuoFrancis NdongoKaja RebaneJeremy RichardsonCarina RosenbachSakhi ShahEmma SlaterOleksiy TatarenkoJuan VialExternalCatherine Abreu,E3GVaibhav Chaturvedi,Council on Energy,Environment,and

8、WaterAnanth Chikkatur,Deloitte Consulting USAnna Collyer,Australian Energy Market CommissionTanuj Deora,independent intervieweeStephen Doig,RMI,Irving Institute for Energy and Society,and Dartmouth CollegeGarrett Fitzgerald,Smart Electric Power AllianceMax Gruenig,E3GJennie Jorgensen,National Renewa

9、ble Energy LaboratoryArchitrandi Priambodo,Asian Development Bank Francisco Salazar,EnixRichard Sedano,Regulatory Assistance ProjectMichael Sponring,PwCRobert Stoner,Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyEric Wanless,Global Energy Alliance for People and PlanetDan Wetzel,International Energy Agencyrm

10、i.org/5Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EAbout This Report .7Executive Summary.9Introduction.11 Global Trends Emerging in the Fossil Fuel Transition.15The Transition Away from Coal.18The Changing Role of Gas in Future Portfolios.20Private-Sector Commitments .24Mobilization of Fina

11、nce to Support Transition Strategies.25Ensuring a Just Transition .27 Key Challenges and Opportunities in the Fossil Fuel Transition .31 Table of Contentsrmi.org/6Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EHow Fossil Fuel Transition Strategies Can Support Priority Outcomes .34Ensure a Fair

12、 and Inclusive Energy Transition.35Create a System Poised for Sustainable Growth .37Increase Efficient Utilization of Clean Assets .40 Innovation in the Fossil Fuel Transition Across Countries.44Advanced Economies .45Middle-Income and Emerging Markets with Dynamic Electricity Sectors .49Middle-Incom

13、e and Emerging Markets with Stable Electricity Sectors .50Developing Economies .51 Spotlights.54Coal Transition in the United Kingdom.54Kenyas Growth through Clean Energy .55Overcoming Long-Term Fossil FuelGeneration PPAs in Chile .55Stakeholder-Driven Just Transition in Canada and Germany .56 Concl

14、usion.57Endnotes .59rmi.org/7Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EAbout This ReportThis report is part of RMIs Global Energy Transformation Guide:Electricity series,which is a research endeavor aimed at understanding the leading edge of innovation for forward-thinking electricity sys

15、tem transitions around the world.The intent of the Global Guide is to assess new developments to secure universal access to reliable,affordable,and clean electricity by identifying key trends,exploring emerging challenges and opportunities,and sharing success stories from electricity system leaders.

16、The series focuses on eight catalysts for change that our research has shown have the greatest potential to support electricity system transformation.These catalysts are high-impact levers available to industry leaders across countries to transform the power sector.RMI plans to publish a separate re

17、port for each of the eight catalysts to provide details on the innovation edge and where leadership is needed most.rmi.org/8Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EThis report is focused on Fossil Fuel Transition Strategies.The other catalysts in this series are:Market Structures System

18、 Planning and Procurement Public Policies Customer Solutions Accessible Finance Utility Incentive Structures Carbon-Free Technology Additionally,for an introduction to this effort,explanation of the framework used to guide our discussion of different catalysts,and further context on where countries

19、are in their energy transition,we have published a complementary report titled Points of Progress An Introduction to RMIs Global Energy Transformation Guide:Electricity.rmi.org/9Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EExpanding energy access,supporting sustainable growth opportunities,a

20、nd reducing emissions are three key factors underpinning commitments to and implementation of the global transition away from fossil fuels to clean energy sources.A variety of pressures are driving this transition,from financial institutions and shareholders to governments and utilities.In response,

21、diverse innovative solutions are emerging across the globe that can offer important insights to countries as they craft their own strategies to navigate the transition.This report touches on five key trends prominent around the world that will have a significant impact on the successful transition a

22、way from fossil fuels.They are:The transition away from coal.Although economics,political pressures,and policy actions have supported the decline of coal globally,coal is continuing to grow in some regions with ready access to supply and subsidized rates.The changing role of natural gas in future ge

23、neration portfolios.Although existing policies and procedures may favor deployment of gas generation in some countries,global gas demand is expected to decline because of tighter supplies,elevated prices,and increased market uncertainty.Mobilization of finance to support transition strategies.Becaus

24、e transitioning large,complex fossil fuel assets is costly,the availability of innovative financing is a critical enabler to accelerate their transition.Private-sector commitments.Investors and shareholders are increasingly integrating climate considerations into their investment strategies.Executiv

25、e Summaryrmi.org/10Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D E Ensuring a just transition.If not managed appropriately,workers and their families,as well as broader communities economically dependent on fossil fuels,will bear a disproportionate burden of the transition.All these trends nee

26、d to be considered in the transition from fossil fuels.Innovation will be required(1)to transition the dirtiest plants quickly and with minimal impacts to communities and customers and(2)to develop new clean energy resources to take the place of fossil fuel generation and meet new demand growth in a

27、 fair and equitable manner.The fossil fuel transition will open new opportunities for economic growth,bringing cheaper and cleaner power,as well as associated industry and jobs to support it.To ensure economic viability,transitioning assets need to be replaced by new sources of clean energy,includin

28、g renewables and demand-side resources such as energy efficiency and flexible end uses.The fossil fuel transition will need to be enabled and supported by financing,a clear pipeline of clean replacement energy projects,innovative utility programs,and new technology to support flexible,responsive,and

29、 reliable grids.This report identifies the critical challenges that countries face in transitioning their electricity systems,as well as the key opportunities they will be able to take advantage of.The latter include innovative financing methods,roles for the private sector to increase demand for cl

30、ean energy,new ways workers and communities can participate in the clean economy,new technologies and business models to expand electricity access and reliability,and emerging opportunities for countries to leverage the transition for climate-forward growth.These are exemplified in case studies from

31、 around the world,such as the UKs coal transition and Chiles innovative methods to transition coal power purchase agreements(PPAs).As policymakers,utilities,investors,developers,civil society,and other stakeholders explore ways to support a fossil fuel transition,we hope this report provides inspira

32、tion and lessons from places that are already navigating the challenges in front of them.rmi.org/11Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EIntroductionTransitioning the worlds energy system away from fossil fuels to clean energy sources will enable countries to expand energy access,supp

33、ort sustainable growth opportunities,and reduce emissions,especially through expansion of renewable generation and energy-efficiency gains.i This paper focuses on the variety of pressures and strategies driving this transition away from fossil fuel generation and highlights innovative solutions emer

34、ging across the globe to share lessons and insights that can guide new efforts.The fossil fuel transition is not only about reducing power sector emissions.It will also reshape the global electricity sector and open further opportunities to decarbonize and modernize grid systems.The power sector has

35、 mature clean energy technologies with favorable economics,putting it at the leading edge of the broader energy transition.It also expands opportunities for equitable access to other end uses,such as cooking,mobility,and thermal comfort.It is important that power sector decarbonization be completed

36、rapidly but also equitably,to ensure that communities,workers,and markets relying on the existing system benefit from the transition.i While electricity generation is the focus of this report,the fossil fuel transition can broadly include the global energy system,such as liquid fuels for transportat

37、ion.The fossil fuel transition will reshape the global electricity sector and open further opportunities to decarbonize and modernize grid systems.rmi.org/12Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EThis report explores various dimensions that need to be considered in the global fossil fu

38、el transition,including:Reducing and avoiding emissions associated with existing and new fossil fuel generation,when possible and appropriate Supporting fossil fuel workers,communities,and the associated economies to achieve a just transition Appropriately wielding regulatory tools to ensure that th

39、e most economic solutions are implemented,including not only new generation,but also energy efficiency,demand response,and other non-wire alternatives Incentivizing deployment of renewables through reduced barriers or access to capital,including support for demand-driven actions such as clean energy

40、 commitments Recognizing the environmental co-benefits captured through clean resources Overcoming political challenges and barriers to the fossil fuel transitionMany more change levers will also govern the pace and scale of electricity sector decarbonization.RMI will be exploring the policy,plannin

41、g,market,and technology pressures and opportunities in companion catalyst reports.To decarbonize the power sector,while achieving universal access to affordable and reliable electricity,the world will need to make a massive change in the way it generates and manages energy.rmi.org/13Fossil Fuel Tran

42、sition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D E5,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,000CoalGasOilNuclearHydroSolar and windOther RenewablesElectricity Generation(Terawatt-hours TWh)Exhibit 1Increase in Global Power Sector Emissions and Shifts in Generation,by SourceSource:BP,Statistical Review of World Energy;Embe

43、r,Global Electricity Review;Ember,European Electricity Review;IEA,World Energy Outlook2000200320062009200215,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,000CoalGasOilNuclearHydroSolar and windOther RenewablesElectricity Generation(Terawatt-hours TWh)Power Sector Emissions2Power Sector CO2 Em

44、issions(Gigatons Gt/year)Electricity Generation(Terawatt-hours TWh)Power Sector CO2 Emissions(Gigatons Gt/year)Globally,installed capacity,as shown in Exhibit 1,is still largely fossil fuel generated.For example,Global Energy Monitor estimates that:More than 2,400 coal plants,across 79 countries,tot

45、al around 2,100 gigawatts(GW)of installed capacity.1 9,354 gas-fired generators(above 50 megawatts MW),across 129 countries,total around 1,800 GW of capacity,which is known to be a significant undercount of actual generators.ii Oil-based generation is more marginal at the utility scale but contribut

46、es to electricity generation through small generators and is widely used in certain areas,such as island states.ii Global Energy Monitors criteria exclude certain generation units,such as those smaller than 50 MW,as well as generation for or from liquefied natural gas.Also,the criteria often miss ca

47、ptured or embedded generation units.rmi.org/14Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EWhile coal still constitutes a significant share of generation,new coal plants are being added in only a limited number of regions.In contrast,gas generation is growing globally,even as gas price volat

48、ility is on the rise and the price for renewable energy continues to plummet.In areas that do not have access to reliable grid power,capacity from backup generators is also growing.A study by the International Finance Corporation(IFC)estimates installed capacity of backup generators in the developin

49、g countries it studied to be between 350 and 500 GW more than all the installed capacity of India.2 Given the omnipresent role of fossil fuels in global electricity systems,this report highlights innovative ways the fossil fuel transition is being approached,managed,and executed,as well as ways some

50、 countries are seeking to bypass the trappings of fossil fuel generation entirely.This report highlights innovative ways the fossil fuel transition is being approached,managed,and executed,as well as ways some countries are seeking to bypass the trappings of fossil fuel generation entirely.rmi.org/1

51、5Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EGlobal Trends Emerging in the Fossil Fuel TransitionForty-two percent of global emissions come from electricity generation.3 To achieve a climate-aligned pathway,industry players at all levels will need to rethink how electricity is used and gene

52、rated.Exhibit 2Emissions Reduction Pathway and Forecast Electricity DemandSource:BloombergNEF,New Energy Outlook,“Green Scenario:Power and Hydrogen”2000200520025203020352040204520505,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,000CoalGasOilNuclearHydrogenHydroBattery StorageSolarWindOther RenewablesGWr

53、mi.org/16Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EThe electricity sector will also grow,as electricity replaces other energy sources such as vehicle fuel,cooking oil,and biomass for heating through electrification,as well as through demand growth for economic development.To achieve carbo

54、n neutrality,the International Energy Agency(IEA)forecasts that renewables need to make up nearly 90%of electricity generation by 2050.4 Other forecasters,such as Bloomberg New Energy Finance(BloombergNEF),see similar growth trajectories,as shown in Exhibit 2(previous page).The current energy transi

55、tion is,in the words of the Economist,“unprecedented in scale and opportunity.”5 Fossil fuels,however,are still significant contributors to both electricity systems and the broader economy.In some places,the reliance on fossil fuels does not reflect economic reality because of heavy subsidization.As

56、 shown in Exhibit 3,the International Monetary Fund(IMF)estimates that explicit subsidies totaled nearly$445 billion in 2020,equivalent to almost a third of the IEAs estimated total energy investment($1.52 trillion)in the same year.6 Exhibit 3Global Explicit Fossil Fuel SubsidiesSource:IMF,A Global

57、and Country Update of Fossil Fuel SubsidiesBillion US$200022420250500600700800Explicit SubsidiesExplicit Subsidies Estimatedrmi.org/17Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EThese subsidies take the form of price supports or caps that make it

58、less costly for consumers to purchase fossil fuels as well as producer-side controls such as tax breaks and concessionary public financing that make it cheaper to develop the resource.Real economic pressures,however,are forcing action through a variety of approaches.For example,financial institution

59、s increasingly see coal as unable to be financed globally,while insurance companies have placed restrictions on underwriting coal projects.7 As a result,it is increasingly expensive and difficult to finance and operate new coal-fired power plants.In the instances that coal is able to be financed,it

60、is mainly because of policy support at a government level.Utilities also face a major risk(and customers even more so),as there could be billions in costs in stranded assets from coal and gas plants if the transition is not managed properly.8 Another factor is demand pressure.Multinational corporati

61、ons,for example,are increasingly demanding cleaner generation to meet their climate commitments.They are willing to invest and,even in some instances,defect from the grid to achieve clean generation and are creating a multibillion-dollar market opportunity for utilities and independent power produce

62、rs(IPPs).This also can have the unintended side effect of driving up fixed costs for other customers who remain connected to the grid.At the same time,prices to develop renewable systems are falling where the systems are perceived as less risky,cheaper,or offering a greater return on investment than

63、 fossil fuel generation.9 rmi.org/18Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EThis report will touch on five key trends prominent around the world that will have a significant impact on the successful transition away from fossil fuels.These include:The transition away from coal The changi

64、ng role of gas in future generation portfolios Private-sector commitments Mobilization of finance to support transition strategies Ensuring a just transition The Transition Away from Coal Coal-fired power generation is the largest single source of greenhouse gas emissions,accounting for around 20%of

65、 global emissions in 2021.10 As a share of total generation,coal peaked globally in 2007,at around 41%of total capacity,and has generally been falling since.11 However,owing to a rebound in demand following 2020s COVID-19 outbreak and gas supply challenges,coal consumption grew to meet around half o

66、f the worlds electricity demand growth in 2021.12 As it stands,the global power sector is not on track to meet climate alignment,which according to the IEAs Net Zero Pathway would require unabated coal to be phased out in advanced economies by 2030 and all other economies by 2040.13 Most recently,en

67、ergy security challenges related to Russias invasion of Ukraine,as well as growing demand after the COVID-19 lulls in 2020,have caused an uptick in global coal use from a net generation perspective,a trend that will likely continue in the near term.14 Progress has been more positive in places such a

68、s Canada,the United States,and Western Europe(despite recent challenges in such places as Germany),where aging coal plants have been replaced by newer,cleaner,and more cost-effective resources.However,as shown in Exhibit 4(next page),coal is dominant and growing in certain areas such as in Southeast

69、 Asia,China,and India where new coal is underpinning large investments in grid infrastructure.rmi.org/19Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EExhibit 4Global Changes in Coal Fleet Status,201022,by RegionNote:Planned additions include announced,pre-permitted,or permitted capacity.Sourc

70、e:Global Energy Monitor,Global Coal Plant TrackerAdditionally,in areas such as Indonesia and South Africa where coal generation is closely linked to coal production electricity generation transition and cross-sector economic transformation are complex and costly.Where there are successes in phasing

71、out coal,the primary drivers have been closely linked to phaseout commitments,such as those made by many advanced economies following COP26,carbon pricing mechanisms,and other policy mechanisms such as environmental regulation,because coal generation often is shielded from broader-800-400-600-2000-2

72、00Canceled,Shelved,or MothballedDecommissionedIn ConstructionPlanned AdditionsAfrica and Middle EastCanada and United StatesEast AsiaEUEurasiaSoutheast AsiaRest of WorldLatin Americanon-EU EuropeAustralia and New Zealand146.72700.02166.03153.11South Asia665.74150.94GWrmi.org/20Fossil Fuel Transition

73、 StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D Eeconomic competition.iii Government commitments to phase out coal have created a degree of certainty in such places as Europe and the United States,while carbon pricing has helped to internalize emissions costs,making investments in new coal risky compared with other a

74、lternatives.Cost-effective clean energy has also emerged as a more lucrative investment than coal in a variety of countries,including Canada,Chile,and the United States.The Changing Role of Gas in Future PortfoliosWhile the expansion of clean energy has played a significant role in the decline of co

75、al in some regions,the growth of gas has also been a key driver.Gas has become a globally relevant commodity in recent years,especially important to the electricity sector because of its perceived flexibility,reliability,and ease of deployment in growing energy systems,as well as the aspiration that

76、 gas infrastructure brings large-scale investment in extraction,distribution,and end uses such as electricity generation.Gas historically has been cheaper on average than coal or oil,making it desirable for new or expanding electricity systems,especially in areas seeing rapidly growing demand.Propon

77、ents of gas also highlight that it is cleaner than coal and allows generators to meet more stringent environmental regulations,though a growing body of research finds that methane leaks and fugitive emissions partially or fully erase this benefit.15 Petroleum-rich countries are also looking to gas a

78、s a vehicle for economic growth through job creation,gas export revenue,and infrastructure development.Countries such as Australia,Mozambique,Qatar,Russia,and the United States are making large investments in upstream infrastructure,though often these projects dont contribute materially to local eco

79、nomic development and instead rely on an imported workforce and international suppliers.16 Furthermore,growth in industries such as liquefied natural gas(LNG)rmi.org/21Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EExhibit 5Global Proved Gas ReservesSource:BP,Statistical Review of World Energy

80、*Gray indicates no dataTrillion Cubic Feet200600 8004001,000 1,200 1,400*Gray indicates no datahas exposed buyers and sellers to a volatile international commodity market,which is further exacerbated by geopolitical tensions among large players in the industry,such as many of those in Exhibit 5 with

81、 exceptionally large proved gas reserves.Still,gas is being used to reduce energy poverty and expand access and quality of supply in specific circumstances.This is important in energy-poor regions with a remote customer base,such as Small Island Developing States.In cases where small users must deal

82、 with a very unreliable grid,small gas generators are often more competitive than diesel.17 At the utility scale,in instances without all-source procurement processes,gas assets may be selected over cheaper clean energy resources.However,doing so also exposes customers to volatile petroleum markets,

83、which often make grid investments and renewables a cheaper and more stable approach.G L O BA L G U I D Ermi.org/22Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesDespite the displacement of coal by gas resources in many locations around the world,global gas demand is expected to decline 0.3%in 2022,driven by tight

84、er supplies,elevated prices,and increased market uncertainty caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.18 As such,decision makers considering the changing role of gas in future generation portfolios should fully account for the benefits and pace of maturity for clean electricity sources over new gas

85、 generation,including:The falling cost of battery technologies,which makes co-located hybrid projects extremely competitive in many regions when planning for reliability.Energy security,in terms of both supply(see Geopolitics and Fossil Fuel Pricing below)and generation(see Global Climate Extremes a

86、nd the Grid on page 37).Where gas is needed,using certified gas products that meet stringent standards could be a more climate-friendly backstop.19 Countries such as Chile,Kenya,and Uruguay,with large endowments of renewable potential,have found success in avoiding gas-fueled generation development

87、through targeted investments and renewables-sector support to meet increasing electricity demand.Supply crunches in Europe are also forcing new policy mechanisms,such as the REPowerEU,to rapidly transition away from gas toward greener generation.20Geopolitics and Fossil Fuel PricingIt is difficult t

88、o separate the discussion of a fossil fuel transition in the electricity sector from a broader discussion of fossil fuels in the global economy.The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 significantly upset global petroleum markets as global gas supplies constricted,an ongoing trend since 2021

89、.21 This has caused an acceleration of renewables deployment in some places,while others have turned to higher-emitting resources including domestic coal.22 These impacts have G L O BA L G U I D Ermi.org/23Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesExhibit 6Natural Gas Price Assumptions,201925Note:Henry Hub i

90、s an index natural gas price used predominantly in the United States;TTF is the Dutch Title Transfer Facility,a marker widely used in Europe to price LNG;Asian spot LNG represents price markers for spot transactions in Asia.Source:IEA,Gas Market Report,Q3-2022.All rights reservedOil Indexation Range

91、TTFHenry HubAsian Spot LNG200222023202420253035201510525US$/MBturippled from Koreas coal markets to Nigerias industrial sector.23 As shown in Exhibit 6,the IEA predicts gas prices will continue to rise in general,and though they may dip in the short term,their long-run prices will still b

92、e higher than lows seen in the 2010s when gas dipped below$2 per million British thermal units(MBtu).24 In short,reliance on fossil fuel supplies for power generation has significant implications for domestic energy security policy and exposure to international market pressures.These are important c

93、onsiderations when volatile fuel prices are simply passed on to electricity customers in many markets.Geopolitics will play a major role as the backdrop to the energy transition and needs to be adequately incorporated into planning by all parties.These economic and political headwinds will continue

94、to drive policymakers and grid operators to reevaluate the role that gas generation should play in future portfolios.rmi.org/24Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EPrivate-Sector CommitmentsPolicies related to the use of coal and gas,as well as the deployment of renewables,are increa

95、singly being influenced by private-sector actors such as corporations,investors,and banks.Publicly traded companies,for example,are under pressure from shareholders to not only disclose their climate impacts,but also to make commitments to reduce emissions in line with international and national goa

96、ls such as the Paris Agreement.These commitments are not insubstantial;one study estimates that Fortune 500 companies account for around 27%of global emissions,equivalent to that of China and slightly more than double the United States emissions.25 To meet these goals,businesses are rethinking how t

97、hey power their operations.For example,more than 360 companies across the globe have committed to procuring 100%clean energy by 2050 through the RE100 initiative,catalyzing green energy development in not only mature but also emerging markets.26 These commitments are having material impacts on grids

98、.In the United States,for example,corporate buyers signed 17 GW of new renewables contracts in 2021,equivalent to around 61%of new clean energy installed that year.27 Another major trend emerging is a growing share of capital being directed by financial institutions in the form of environmental,soci

99、al,and governance(ESG)investing.While these funds ostensibly support environmental objectives,their actual impact on power-sector emissions reductions is tenuous.28 To focus on transition impacts,private financial institutions are realigning their investment holdings toward climate-aligned objective

100、s,such as ending financing for new coal.Only five years ago,the top lenders for new coal included major players such as Credit Suisse Group and HSBC Holdings PLC,but in 2022,all are banks in China.29 Voluntary commitments such as the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero are seeking to reduce priv

101、ate financing even further to align with government commitments regarding public financing.30 rmi.org/25Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EFinally,in areas where grid reliability is a concern,private-sector actors are finding it cheaper to procure their own captive renewable energy

102、,especially if they already are self-generating from costly diesel generators.A recent study by Wood Mackenzie,for example,estimates that in markets such as sub-Saharan Africa,a switch from diesel to solar could see first-year savings of 15%40%of power costs.31 Given the low variable costs of renewa

103、bles,this can substantially lower overall operational expenses as well as prevent exposure to volatile fossil fuel pricing.Mobilization of Finance to Support Transition StrategiesIn addition to private-sector financing,public funds are also being mobilized to support the transition.Because transitio

104、ning large,complex fossil fuel assets,especially coal,is costly,the availability of financing is a critical enabler to accelerate their phaseout.It is important that financing mechanisms are designed such that communities and customers are not“on the hook”for increased costs,while at the same time e

105、nsuring swift transition of emitting assets.These mechanisms fall under four broad categories:compensation,refinancing,managed transition vehicles,and broad transition support.iv Chile,Europe,South Africa,Southeast Asia,and the United States are all benefiting from one or more of these financial tra

106、nsition mechanisms.However,there is significant potential to increase their use across different geographical areas.RMI,with other partners,has begun to develop tools and taxonomies to identify which transition mechanisms will be more effective or more appropriate for specific assets,utilities,and r

107、egions,as summarized in Exhibit 7(next page).iv RMI has been at the forefront in support of financing models for coal transition.Additional financial strategies,such as green bonds,are also discussed in RMI publications:https:/rmi.org/insight/financing-the-coal-transition/.rmi.org/26Fossil Fuel Tran

108、sition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EWhile coal transition financing is expanding,especially in light of commitments made during COP26,these mechanisms are still relatively new in concept and execution.Important proof points are needed to demonstrate the effectiveness and adequacy of financing trans

109、ition mechanisms to further mobilize financing of the transition,especially from private sources.Exhibit 7Four Broad Categories of Coal Transition MechanismsPayment or other financial benefits to coal asset owners to compensate them for lost revenues when transitioning the asset earlyFinancial and i

110、nvestment vehicles that purchase coal plants with the explicit goal of decommissioning them earlyRefinancing allows coal asset owners to take on new,low-cost debt to assist in transition activities.Given that the interest rates on this new debt are lower than the original cost of capital for the coa

111、l assets,this can generate savings for customers and taxpayers as well as free up capital for reinvestmentSupport packages developed to create and support broader economic structural changes to drive a low-carbon transition that may earmark specific coal-retirement or repurposing funding as well as

112、transitioning community support activities Useful where assets have simple ownership and/or offtake structures with access to capital Legislation or legal framework in place to allow for refinancing techniques such as securitization and lower risk to creditors Availability of sufficient financing La

113、rge-scale transition goals with considerable linkages to other sectors(e.g.,coal extraction)Availability of sufficient financing Asset owners are in debt or unable to access lower cost debt Availability of sufficient financingCompensationManaged Transition VehiclesBroad Transition SupportMechanismCo

114、nsiderationsRefinancingSource:RMIrmi.org/27Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EStranded Assets in the Fossil Fuel TransitionStranded assets,in this context,are goods,such as power plants,that experience a rapid decline in value as a result of the transition away from fossil fuels.32

115、 Estimating the exact value of stranded assets is complicated because of the complex life cycles of fossil fuelgeneration assets,as well as the type of future investment and policy scenarios the estimates use.For instance,researchers at a consortium of universities in the United States recently esti

116、mated that stranded assets for coal alone range from$573 billion to$1.4 trillion depending on policy projections.33 Older studies have estimated there will be between$690 billion(aggressive policy action)and$1.38 trillion(delayed policy action)in stranded assets in the power sector by 2050.34 The ex

117、tent of risk for these assets beyond noneconomic stranding,such as drought and sea-level rise,have raised the profile of the transition within the financial community.Regardless of the exact value,the risks of asset stranding are a growing concern for utility financial stability,customers and bill p

118、ayers,investors,and governments.Ensuring a Just TransitionWhile the fossil fuel transition offers a significant opportunity for socioeconomic benefits,equitable sharing of these benefits is not guaranteed.v Careful planning and targeted investment in transformational activities can ensure that commu

119、nities and regions that will be affected by the transition are receiving proper support.If not managed appropriately,workers and their families,as well as the local communities that are economically dependent on the fossil fuel industry,will bear a disproportionate burden of the transition.v Disadva

120、ntaged communities have been the subject of historical harms from energy development;however,in this context,“just transition”refers specifically to fossil fueldependent workers and communities.rmi.org/28Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EBecause of these complexities,it is importa

121、nt to ensure a just transition by making sure the communities and individuals most affected by the transition away from fossil fuels share in the benefits of the shift to clean energy.This begins with robust,authentic engagement at the community level to build trust and understand existing condition

122、s,such as worker concerns,strengths,and skill sets.This dialogue also supports community knowledge building,creating a foundation to break through skepticism that a transition will provide equitable economic opportunities.Recent frameworks have focused on economic diversification and development,whi

123、ch is essential because these communities often are geographically tied to fossil fuel generation or production,which may not overlap directly with new opportunities.35 For example,in areas dependent on the fossil fuel economy in the United States and the UK,where liberalized markets and competitive

124、 economic forces have been the primary drivers for fossil fuel transition,the phaseout of coal has led to unmanaged and undesirable community impacts,such as job loss,depressed property values,and lower tax revenues.36 In the UKs case,these communities correlate to significantly lower rmi.org/29Foss

125、il Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EEnergy TransitionJust TransitionExhibit 8Factors Enabling a Just TransitionNear TermLonger TermWorker transition assistanceAppropriate worker retraining and job placementEquitable distribution of benefitsStakeholder-centered engagement and dialogueCom

126、munity economic developmentCustomized,sector-specific economic transformation strategylevels of economic well-being,including regional gross domestic product(GDP),income,health outcomes,and other measures,indicating that even as the country is poised to become the first advanced economy to exit coal

127、 entirely,the costs and burdens of the transition are not being equitably borne across communities.37 In regions preparing for the transition away from coal more purposefully,new mechanisms are being introduced to manage the community and socioeconomic impacts of the coal exit.Some countries,such as

128、 Canada,are exploring stakeholder-driven efforts to understand local needs,while others,such as Germany,have developed national policies to assist in managed economic diversification and teaching workers new skills.38 As shown in Exhibit 8,a just transition will require input from stakeholders,as we

129、ll as coordinated action by governments and industries,to be successful.Source:RMIrmi.org/30Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D ESupporting a just transition in the Global South has been a more recent focus,especially considering climate commitments made at COP26.Two notable commitme

130、nts include financial support to South Africa through the Just Energy Transition Partnership,and support to Southeast Asian countries via the Asian Development Bank.Both initiatives are aiming to support governments,industry,communities,and customers in dealing with the various complexities of coal

131、transition,including technical support for country-driven policy interventions,industrial strategy,regulatory development,worker training,and capacity building,as well as broader economic development.In a broader sense,clean energy development also can be a source of injustice.Land use,loss of livel

132、ihood,and environmental damage are concerns for communities hosting renewables investments or the supply chains that enable them.39 Given this,firms and governments will need to ensure that commensurate support and focus are given to both sides of the transition.As the clean energy transition accele

133、rates,knowledge and lessons learned will need to be exchanged among all regions to continually improve and expand access to solutions.Most importantly,how countries will manage broader fossil fuel transitions beyond coal,such as oil and gas,is still an important policy focus.Given the influence of p

134、etroleum in the global economy,major shifts could prove to be as disruptive as the commodity super cycle itself.G L O BA L G U I D Ermi.org/31Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesKey Challenges and Opportunities in the Fossil Fuel TransitionAs the trends discussed in the previous section illustrate,the

135、transition away from fossil fuels in the electricity sector can be limited by a variety of barriers,ranging from technologies to institutions.Many outside-the-sector factors have an impact as well,from growing demand due to electrification to upstream supplies of fossil fuels.These challenges do not

136、 apply to all places in equal measure.Countries seeking to expand their generation systems to industrialize face different pressures from advanced economies whose annual electricity demand is essentially flat or falling.In general,however,to accelerate the fossil fuel transition,innovation is needed

137、 in two overarching areas:The dirtiest plants need to transition quickly with minimal impacts to communities and customers.New clean energy resources need to be developed to take the place of fossil fuelgeneration assets and to meet new electricity demand growth in a fair and equitable manner.Exhibi

138、t 9(next page)summarizes the biggest challenges and opportunities facing the fossil fuel transition today.Many other challenges,such as policies,grid reliability,and market structures also rmi.org/32Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EExhibit 9Key Challenges and Opportunities in the

139、 Fossil Fuel Transitionvi Fiscal incentives include value added taxes(VATs)or exemptions,income taxes or exemptions,import tariffs/taxes or exemptions,and Certified Emission Reduction(CER)/Renewable Energy Certificate(REC)sales tax exemptions.GOVERNMENTS AND STAKEHOLDERSChallenges Misalignments betw

140、een fiscal incentives and policy goals(against fossil fuels or for clean energy)vi Complex bureaucracy to initiate renewables development Energy security and global geopolitical concerns Opposition from communities and workforces who are most at risk during a fossil fuel transitionOpportunities Prom

141、ote the development of or use appropriate fiscal incentives for renewable projects and reduce those for fossil fuels Streamline permitting and approval processes for new renewable projects Provide timely,accurate information to decision makers and stakeholders to demonstrate the value of renewables

142、investments and fossil retirements New economic and community development programs and/or worker training for fossil fueldependent communities Development of proof points and support for capacity building for regulators to support the transition of fossil fuel assetsExhibit continued on the next pag

143、ehave an impact on the fossil fuel transition and will be covered in greater detail in companion catalyst reports.Others,such as critical mineral supply chains,are important,but beyond the scope of this series.ECONOMIC PRESSURES WITHIN THE TRANSITIONChallenges Fossil fuel subsidies Low costs of foss

144、il fuels in resource-abundant areas Lack of carbon pricing or other internalization mechanisms for emissions Economic linkages to extractive industriesOpportunities Fossil fuel subsidy reform,especially through the lens of better fiscal management Investment in renewable technology and appropriate f

145、iscal structures to make renewables more competitive with fossil fuels Carbon pricing,carbon markets,and tax mechanisms to internalize carbon emissions impacts when making development and procurement decisions and to monetize the value of emissions reductions Development of local capacity to support

146、 transition,including supplier and workforce developmentrmi.org/33Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EExhibit 9Key Challenges and Opportunities in the Fossil Fuel Transition,cont.FINANCING CLEAN ENERGY AND TRANSITION PROJECTSChallenges Availability of financing especially local to s

147、upport projects High cost of capital in some jurisdictions due to perception of risk Lengthy and cumbersome processes to access financing when available Project economics and upfront capital cost of projects Lack of robust pipeline of clean power projects Debt,stranded assets,and other financial cha

148、llenges of governments and utilities Lack of enabling environment that supports private investmentOpportunities Financing mechanisms,facilities,and capacity building to support fossil transition or renewable developments Training and support systems to aid in accessing available financing Targeted i

149、nterventions to de-risk and leverage private capital,and lower capital and operational expenses for new clean energy projects(including demand-side interventions)and asset transitions Provision of transition support to workers and communities Development of transition mechanisms and concessionary fi

150、nancing to accelerate fossil fuel transition when market and regulatory barriers existChallenges Poor grid reliability in certain locations drives investment in backup generators Limited or insufficient transmission capacity Oversupplied grids and lack of flexibility from contracted capacity Dispatc

151、h priority may not align with the most economic generation(e.g.,coal dispatched before cheaper renewables)INFRASTRUCTURE AND PLANNINGOpportunities Investment in grid modernization and transmission expansion Deployment of new technologies to support current grid capacities Priority interconnection in

152、struments and economic development zones for renewable projects Innovative policy and regulation solutions to ensure the most economic resources are dispatched Creation,expansion,and improvements to competitive markets that support efficient resource investments and operationsSource:RMIrmi.org/34Fos

153、sil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EHow Fossil Fuel Transition Strategies Can Support Priority OutcomesTo guide regional,national,and local decision makers as they navigate these challenges and opportunities in achieving climate alignment and other power-sector priorities,there are sev

154、en universal outcomes that can be used as indicators of progress in power-sector transformation.These seven outcomes are further described in the series Points of Progress An Introduction to RMIs Global Energy Transformation Guide:Electricity report and represent critical power-sector objectives tha

155、t industry leaders will be required to consider and plan for in policy,regulations,and investments.These universal outcomes are aimed at achieving three primary goals:(1)ensuring a fair and inclusive energy transition,(2)creating a system poised for sustainable growth,and(3)increasing the efficient

156、utilization of clean energy assets.Given countries different priorities as they transition away from fossil fuels,it is important to understand how different strategies and approaches can make progress toward these seven outcomes.While some outcomes may be more important to certain countries than ot

157、hers,they represent critical lenses or criteria to use in the design and implementation of new solutions.rmi.org/34Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG UID EG L O BA L G U I D EExpand Access and Enable Economic Developmentrmi.org/35Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesEnsure a fair and inclusive energytra

158、nsitionCreate a system poised for sustainable growthIncrease eficient utilization of clean assetsImprove energy intensityAccelerate clean energy adoptionReduce dependence on coalGlobalEnergy TransformationExpand access and enable economic developmentPromote afordability and equityEnsure energy relia

159、bility and resilienceSecure utility financial stabilitySeven Priority Outcomes and Three Overarching GoalsEnsure a Fair and Inclusive Energy TransitionThe fossil fuel transition is opening up unprecedented investment in a cleaner economy.A joint analysis between IEA and the IMF finds that in a net-z

160、ero-by-2050 pathway,global energy investment would surge to around$5 trillion by 2030 and would add 0.4%to annual global GDP,vii putting global GDP 4%higher in 2030 compared with current trajectories.40 This represents tremendous growth in infrastructure and human capital that will catalyze new econ

161、omic growth through increased access to services,new enterprises,and savings on fuel.41 vii Similarly,IRENAs climate-aligned pathway estimates the total energy workforce could be at 122 million by 2050,of which 43 million would be in renewable energy.This would be up from 12 million in 2020,a startl

162、ing 260%increase.In most geographical areas,the falling cost of renewables outcompetes other forms of generation,especially coal.Savings from clean energy resources can help mitigate financial impacts on utilities during the transition,creating the opportunity to pass on savings to customers and rei

163、nvest in cleaner resources.Additionally,many countries subsidize power,fossil fuels,or both,distorting the economics of power producers.This provides added complexity when developing transition packages because it artificially lowers prices.Take-or-pay contracts with gas or coal suppliers or long-te

164、rm PPAs also lock in generators,even when fossil fuels are not the most economic option.This is evident in places such as Indonesia,where state-owned utility PLN is managing the complexity of transitioning despite existing long-term agreements.42 Furthermore,the fossil fuel transition has several im

165、plications at the community level,and strategies should account for both environmental and socioeconomic dynamics of operating and retiring plants.Because of these tensions,it is important that countries focus on a just transition,one that ensures that the communities most affected share in the bene

166、fits.Additionally,disadvantaged,marginalized,and vulnerable communities with less political power are often affected most by pollution from fossil fuel plants.Recent studies estimate that one in five deaths worldwide are linked to fossil fuel air pollution.43 Although beyond the scope of this report

167、,it is well documented that these communities bear the brunt of ill effects from fossil fuel development and use.44 A transition away from emitting resources will help provide benefits beyond decarbonization.G L O BA L G U I D Ermi.org/36Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesPromote Affordability and Equ

168、ityEnsure a Fair and Inclusive Energy TransitionSavings from clean energy resources can help mitigate financial impacts on utilities during the transition,creating the opportunity to pass on savings to customers and reinvest in cleaner resources.Notwithstanding efforts to curb emissions,climate chan

169、ge is driving unprecedented weather events worldwide.45 These weather events have two main implications relevant to the fossil fuel transition:Creating unpredictable demand patterns in grids,especially in areas with wide temperature bands,with implications for grid planners around the globe tasked w

170、ith forecasting load to ensure reliable supply Forcing fossil generation outages due to fuel insecurityG L O BA L G U I D EEnsure Energy Reliability and Resiliencermi.org/37Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesGlobal Climate Extremes and the Grid The effects of global climate change are challenging the

171、electricity system in complex and diverse ways.These impacts are influencing how people are using power on the grid as well as the resilience and reliability of the grid itself.For example,in February 2021,the US state of Texas faced historic cold weather conditions,causing customer demand to exceed

172、 even the most extreme winter forecasts.Forty-six percent of the states coal,gas,and nuclear capacity went down,causing blackouts across the state for up to four days.46 In addition to the 200 attributable deaths,economic damage was close to$200 billion.47 Global climate change is also responsible f

173、or an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones.48 Caribbean islands are particularly vulnerable,with some islands experiencing more than 11 major hurricanes since 1980.49 Solar systems and minigrids have proved to be particularly resilient in places such as the Bahamas and Puerto Rico.50 Not o

174、nly do these resources help to decentralize system points of failure,but they also protect islands from the volatility of fossil fuel imports during recovery.Create a System Poised for Sustainable GrowthG L O BA L G U I D Ermi.org/38Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesLastly,Brazil has achieved remarka

175、ble growth since the 1970s,making electricity access nearly universal through investments in clean energy primarily hydropower,which supplies more than 60%of the grid.51 During 2021,however,the worst droughts in 20 years brought reservoirs to almost record lows,requiring a surge in LNG imports to me

176、et energy demands,exposing Brazil to higher fuel prices and commodity volatility,as well as increasing emissions.52As operators orient grids to withstand the increasing frequency of extreme climate events and address the underlying causes of these events,they must shift attention away from fossil fu

177、elbased central generation to flexible,clean solutions that can be rapidly deployed,as well as distributed,and demand-side resources that can respond in real time.Additionally,a fossil fuel transition can increase domestic energy security by shifting away from imported fossil fuels and building more

178、 localized resources and infrastructure.The effects of resource security have played out visibly in Europes response to Russias invasion of Ukraine.The reduction in fossil fuel imports has placed Europe in a precarious position requiring imports from new locations that are placing cost pressures on

179、customers.53 Similarly,countries dependent on coal place their trust in only a small number of major producers,50%of which are in China.54 Transitioning away from fossil fuels to renewables helps separate electricity production from volatile international commodity markets,providing a hedge against

180、rising costs.55Create a System Poised for Sustainable GrowthG L O BA L G U I D EThe transition to low-and zero-carbon electricity gives utilities a unique opportunity to reevaluate current business practices and models.As utilities deploy higher shares of clean energy resources,they can take advanta

181、ge of lower variable operating costs,such as for fuel(or even infrastructure operation and maintenance with energy-efficiency gains).This is especially important as any energy development is often capital-(and debt-)intensive,making it important that that they can attract appropriate investments.Man

182、y countries are facing unique challenges as well.The economies of Indonesia and South Africa,for example,have high levels of integration with coal extraction and use,making transition dependent on a more holistic change in the economy.Governments and utilities in these countries are increasingly loo

183、king toward innovative financial mechanisms that can assist with the transition.Coal transition mechanisms are gaining traction,but use of commercial financing instruments,including securitization which can lower costs for customers and utilities while freeing up capital to invest in new clean energ

184、y technologies remain limited.56 As the transition continues,ensuring that utilities remain financially viable,especially in areas of the world without cost-reflective tariffs,will be a huge challenge.rmi.org/39Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesSecure Utility Financial StabilityCreate a System Poised

185、 for Sustainable GrowthG L O BA LG U I D EAs the transition continues,ensuring that utilities remain financially viable,especially in areas of the world without cost-reflective tariffs,will be a huge challenge.G L O BA L G U I D Ermi.org/40Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesImprove Energy IntensityAs

186、fossil fuels are phased out of the electricity mix,it is critical that they are replaced with clean energy resources to ensure safe,affordable,and reliable electricity service.This is especially important in countries that are industrializing,where demand for electricity is outpacing the ability of

187、renewable energies to come online.57 Utilities,customers,and policymakers can take advantage of the quickest and cheapest energy resource available energy efficiency by reducing energy intensity and avoiding the need for new or replacement sources of generation.58 To meet net-zero goals,energy effic

188、iency needs to roughly double by 2050.59 Additionally,while renewables may lead in power-sector decarbonization,these assets will need to be supported through demand-side resources such as demand response,as well as grid modernization and optimization that can reduce power losses.In some cases,power

189、-sector losses(including transmission,distribution,and commercial)top 20%,representing perhaps some of the cheapest sources of clean energy globally.60 Accelerate Clean Energy AdoptionDue to declining costs,ambitious climate commitments across actors,and technology breakthroughs(including storage),c

190、lean energy deployment is growing at a record pace.However,the IEA estimates that renewable energy deployment must double beyond current forecasts to be climate-aligned,which includes replacement generation for transitioning fossil fuel assets as well as new demand growth.61 Increase Efficient Utili

191、zation of Clean AssetsG L O BA L G U I D Ermi.org/41Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesIncrease EfficientUtilization ofClean AssetsAs shown in Exhibit 10,by 2026,renewable capacity is projected to grow by 4,800 GW,though 80%of it falls into only four markets.Clean energy projects are also limited by t

192、he ability to access funding.Many emerging markets and developing countries will need access to a wide variety of financing,either through concessionary lending or blended finance,including green banks and bonds.This ensures that as developers and proponents de-risk projects,the cost of capital is a

193、ffordable for all countries.China43%Rest of World20%Europe18%United States12%India7%Exhibit 10Projected Share of Global Renewables Capacity Growth by 2026 in Key MarketsSource:IEA,Renewables 2021:Analysis and forecasts to 2026.All rights reserved;as modified by RMIEnergy modeling by the IEA and othe

194、r agencies is starting to consider a greater range of technologies to meet local planning objectives,though they have not yet been deployed beyond demonstrations.They include long-duration storage,green hydrogen,next-generation nuclear,and carbon capture,use,and storage.Reduce Dependence on CoalDesp

195、ite phaseout commitments,a majority of existing coal capacity is not climate aligned.Exhibit 11(next page)shows that nearly 95%of coal capacity will not align with IEAs Net-Zero Pathway.This G L O BA L G U I D Ermi.org/42Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesIncrease EfficientUtilization ofClean Assetsca

196、pacity is heavily concentrated in countries that are not part of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD),a group of mainly advanced economies.GW5001,0001,5002,000Total CoalCapacityPhaseoutCommitments(IEA Net ZeroAligned)PhaseoutCommitments(Not IEA NetZeroAligned)Net-ZeroComm

197、itments(Not IEA NetZeroAligned)Not CommittedNon-OECDOECDExhibit 11Global Coal Capacity and Phaseout Commitments Source:RMI analysis;Global Energy Monitor,“Coal Plant Tracker”Recent studies by RMI and our partners show coal economics is rapidly changing at a global level,though challenges still exist

198、 in light of recent energy market disruptions.62 Despite commitments at COP26,it is estimated that 79%of committed coal retirements need to be accelerated to keep climate alignment.63 The global trends discussion above highlights some of the methods that countries are using to reduce dependence on c

199、oal.In countries where coal is still economical,strategic operating decisions can be made to minimize reliance on this resource.G L O BA L G U I D Ermi.org/43Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesFlexible CoalHistorically,coal plants have been designed to operate continuously at their maximum rated power

200、.As larger shares of renewable energy are interconnected,however,countries have looked to reduce reliance on coal.This has driven many utilities and grid operators to explore alternative operating constructs for existing coal plants in which they would be dispatched more flexibly.In China,Germany,an

201、d elsewhere,grid operators have experimented with the ability to use coal plants as resources for peak power needs(i.e.,“peakers”),as well as converting them to seasonal operations.These trials have demonstrated that it is technically feasible for many coal plants to be operated in these more flexib

202、le ways.Using coal more flexibly creates one option for coal-heavy grids to lower overall emissions and minimize economic impacts while cleaner,cheaper solutions are deployed.64 G L O BA L G U I D EIncrease EfficientUtilization ofClean Assetsrmi.org/44Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U

203、I D Ermi.org/44Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesInnovation in the Fossil Fuel Transition Across CountriesThe fossil fuel transition is not an equal priority for all countries or regions.Where countries are focusing on it,motivations vary and include climate change concerns and commitments as well as

204、 the desire for cheaper generation and reduced need for imported fuels in general.For the purposes of this discussion,economies are divided into four main categories,shown in Exhibit 12(next page):rmi.org/45Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EExhibit 12Innovation in Fossil Fuel Tran

205、sition across CountriesAdvanced EconomiesExamples:Canada European Union United StatesExamples:China India Indonesia Middle East and North AfricaExamples:Much of Latin America Parts of Eastern EuropeExamples:Sub-Saharan Africa Parts of Southeast Asia Small Island States in the PacificHistorically res

206、ponsible for the majority of emissions;prioritize reliability of large grids with near-universal accessMiddle-Income and Emerging Markets:Dynamic Electricity SectorPrioritize access,growth,and affordability;may have high electricity levels in urban areas,with less in rural;high levels of infrastruct

207、ure expansionMiddle-Income and Emerging Markets:Stable Electricity SectorMay have higher levels of access with some need in remote areas;prioritize ensuring generation keeps pace with demand;often established system but with challengesDeveloping EconomiesLower levels of access,especially outside urb

208、an areas;may have limited infrastructure and low levels of reliabilityAdvanced EconomiesIn advanced economies,including most OECD nations,legacy reliance on fossil fuels for development has often left an entrenched incumbent fossil fuel industry and/or industries heavily reliant on fossil fuel suppl

209、y chains.Major challenges to the transition often include political barriers by stakeholders and governments,financing for fossil fuel transitions,economic barriers,and issues related to energy planning.More progressive markets have taken steps to prioritize climate change,after stakeholders have pu

210、shed for policy measures to transition the electricity sector and drive energy markets to evolve or reform.Governments at all levels have committed to reducing the use of fossil fuels through rmi.org/46Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D Elaws,regulations,fiscal incentives,and taxes.

211、Carbon policies,rooted in Europe,have been some of the most effective in driving decarbonization in electricity,especially in Norway,Sweden,and the United Kingdom,as well as through the European Union Emissions Trading System(EU ETS).rmi.org/46Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesLowering Emissions in N

212、orways Oil IndustryNorway has one of the largest and oldest oil industries in Europe,with commercial production since 1971.65 Norway was also one of the first countries to adopt a carbon tax,in 1991,valued at around$70 per ton for petroleum producers on Norways continental shelf,and the country is a

213、n active member in the EU ETS.The result is that Norways cost of carbon is among the highest in the world.66 Exhibit 13Oil and Gas Production on the Norwegian Continental Shelf by Level of ElectrificationNote:Early phase non-sanctioned electrification projects not included.Source:Rystad Energy Emiss

214、ionsCube6,000Non-ElectrifiedPartially ElectrifiedFully ElectrifiedHistory ForecastThousand Barrels Per Day5,0004,0003,0002,0001,0002005200252030G L O BA L G U I D Ermi.org/47Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesNot all advanced economies have managed to prioritize a transition away from fossi

215、l fuels,however.Notably,recalcitrant markets,such as some parts of Australia and the United States,face strong opposition to transition from policymakers,utilities,industry,and affected workers.Political and civil society organizations have made strides to bridge this divide through targeted capacit

216、y-building programs to arm utilities,decision makers,and advocates with information,especially as renewable energy costs fall globally.Where governments are not responding,investors and the private sector have taken advantage of the growing awareness of climate change to make their own commitments.G

217、roups such as the Clean Energy Buyers Alliance(CEBA)and RE100 have come together to reduce informational barriers and enable corporations to more easily plan,finance,and procure clean energy.69 Analysis by BloombergNEF indicates that corporate sustainability commitments make up the driving force beh

218、ind this renewed corporate interest in clean power.70 As Helen Dewhurst,a senior Some companies have begun to look at reducing emissions as a value stream.One of Norways largest producers,Equinor ASA,has been electrifying its operations,including most recently the large Johan Sverdrup field,which st

219、arted in October 2019.Initial development of this field included around 100 MW of onshore power,primarily from hydro,which allowed Equinor to dramatically reduce emissions.After the second phase starts,around the end of 2022,Equinor projects production intensity(direct emissions per production unit)

220、will be just 0.67 kg carbon dioxide equivalent per barrel of oil,among the lowest in the world.67 As shown in Exhibit 13(previous page),this experience has catalyzed electrification efforts by other operators in Norway,where,by 2025,more than 50%of production is anticipated to be at least partially

221、electrified.68 While the industry itself is not green,this shows that policy levers,such as carbon pricing and emissions trading schemes,can be effective in lowering net emissions.rmi.org/48Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D Eassociate with BloombergNEF,notes,“The clean energy portf

222、olios of big tech companies now rival those of the worlds biggest utilities.Big tech faces mounting pressure from investors to decarbonize and this is reflected in the steep increase in clean energy volumes purchased.”71 Large buyers,including companies as well as other entities such as cities and u

223、niversities,are sourcing cleaner generation through direct power procurement in the form of PPAs,a growing trend as demonstrated by Exhibit 14.PPAs can lower risk to developers,while providing a more secure financing and offtake avenue,especially in higher risk markets.72 This provides an avenue to

224、expand renewables development for developers,IPPs,and utilities.10,00020,00030,000200001920202021AmericasAsiaEuropeOceaniaGWExhibit 14Annual Estimated Corporate PPA Capacity,by RegionSource:BloombergNEFrmi.org/49Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EMi

225、ddle-Income and Emerging Markets with Dynamic Electricity SectorsFossil fuel use is notably growing in industrializing markets,those middle-income and emerging markets(MIEMs)with high growth,especially in countries such as China and India.As these countries expand access and seek to meet new demand

226、from industrialization,they are exploring all options,including fossil fuels and renewables.Even for countries interested in cleaning up their electricity systems,established long-term PPAs with fossil fuel providers present a major economic barrier to utilities and off-takers from transitioning to

227、lower-cost clean energy solutions.Novel interventions will need to be developed,such as the way coal plant operators and off-takers are renegotiating PPAs to favor all parties as well as decarbonization objectives.Many countries are exploring ways to increase their renewable capacity while dealing w

228、ith a legacy of fossil fuel development.New transition support entities,such as the Asian Development Banks Energy Transition Mechanism and South Africas Just Energy Transition Partnership,are providing financing facilities to coal-heavy economies to reduce the costs and barriers of transition.Conve

229、rsely,countries such as China are looking at how to use their fossil fleet more efficiently,including by dispatching coal generation for peaker support.In other cases,countries are deploying innovative,low-cost energy-efficiency programs such as Indias Ujala.Various estimates show that lighting is r

230、esponsible for 18%27%of household electricity use in India.73 Ujala provides low-cost LEDs directly to consumers,which lowers electricity demand and stimulates a new market in LED manufacturing.The program operator estimates that Ujala saves around 48 billion kilowatt-hours per year and reduces emis

231、sions by Established long-term PPAs with fossil fuel providers present a major economic barrier to utilities and off-takers from transitioning to lower-cost clean energy solutions.rmi.org/50Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D Earound 39 million tons of CO2 per year while increasing s

232、avings on bills.74 These types of direct engagements are making major strides in advancing clean energy resources in growing electricity markets.Lastly,many of these countries struggle to reduce fossil fuel subsidies while ensuring an equitable transition.The United Nations notes that progress on su

233、bsidy reform has been mixed and slow.75 Social pressures,especially on elected officials,by the public and entrenched fossil fuel interests stand in the way of potential reforms despite subsidies downsides.Middle-Income and Emerging Markets with Stable Electricity SectorsNot all MIEM countries are e

234、xperiencing dynamic economic growth(and commensurate electricity sector growth),and so transition challenges vary.In Latin America,high reliance on hydropower makes the grid clean but also vulnerable to the effects of climate change.High levels of drought have caused many grid operators to look towa

235、rd fossil fuels to make up the shortfall in supply while other renewables are built out.The Caribbean,too,faces resilience challenges with climate change as stronger storms threaten infrastructure.76 Eastern Europe,conversely,faces an entrenched legacy fossil fuel system,as well as a complex energy

236、security relationship with Russia.77 As the Russian invasion of Ukraine has threatened energy security,countries such as Poland and Romania are taking renewable and clean energy deployment more seriously because they cannot afford to source new gas on the timelines Western Europe is seeking.78 Edges

237、 of innovation in these countries show similarities between industrializing MIEMs and more advanced economies.For example,it is challenging to access financial instruments and expertise to rapidly develop renewable energy systems to replace expensive fossil fuel rmi.org/51Fossil Fuel Transition Stra

238、tegiesG L O BA L G U I D Egeneration(especially from imported diesel and now LNG),though innovative policies are helping to overcome this.Investment in infrastructure and energy planning such as the development of integrated resource and resilience planning processes in various Caribbean countries t

239、hat integrate resilience as a key component in long-term energy planning highlights the best use of limited funding.This has resulted in infrastructure hardening and greater use of renewable minigrids to help create resilient critical infrastructure.Chile Expands Renewables through Innovative Block

240、AuctionsChile has set up innovative,technology-neutral hourly supply block auctions for independent power producers to sell electricity to distribution utilities.79 Even as early as 2015,auctions were awarded to 100%clean energy,owing mainly to falling renewables pricing.80 What makes this remarkabl

241、e is that these auctions are among only a few places where renewables compete directly with conventional fossil fuels on a cost basis by aligning power production with PPA supply commitment hours.81 These hourly supply blocks,as well as longer lead time in construction and longer contract duration(w

242、hich are lower risk to developers),are key factors in the high level of participation and the low prices in these renewables auctions.This has helped make Chile a leader in the region in new renewables deployment,where nearly 42%of all foreign direct investment in Chile is in the renewables sector.8

243、2Developing EconomiesEconomies that are still developing are,in many cases,focused on providing fundamental access,especially in rural areas that may have limited or unreliable infrastructure.Although certain regions face special challenges for example,Small Island Developing States that have limite

244、d land and resources rmi.org/52Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D E many developing economies are in situations consistent across contexts that include:Difficulty accessing financing and expertise to deploy appropriate energy systems and technology Limited capacity of policymakers a

245、nd utilities to quickly build out electricity systems,including renewable generation A lack of infrastructure and energy planning processes Uncoordinated or unclear regulatory frameworks that may unintentionally slow expansion of the grid,renewable energy supply chains,or workforce developmentDespit

246、e these challenges,these countries are at the edge of an opportunity.Low-cost renewables can directly support economic growth,rather than following the intermediary fossil fuelreliant approach that so many advanced economies are now managing.To enable these countries to take advantage of a clean ene

247、rgybased growth trajectory,new innovations in access to financing,as well the development of a robust pipeline of viable clean energy projects,will be instrumental.Private and public organizations and financiers are working to identify and de-risk projects,especially as rising fossil fuel prices mak

248、e the economics of renewables extraordinarily favorable.Additionally,governments,utilities,and stakeholders are often underfunded and under-resourced to support clean energy investment.Support to reduce regulatory complexity,provide robust social and technoeconomic analysis,and ensure financial viab

249、ility of utilities during the transition are all critical,depending on the specific challenges the country or market is facing.Other innovations are lowering investment barriers.Programs include Nigerias Demand Aggregation for Renewable Technology initiative,which allows for aggregated buying of ren

250、ewable components,reducing overhead costs for the deployment of clean resources and saving an estimated 24%on photovoltaics(PV)rmi.org/53Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D Eand 40%on storage procurement.83 This level of cost savings is fundamental to maintaining a strong cash flow b

251、y nascent developers who are deploying customer-sited solar solutions throughout Nigeria.In areas with unreliable grid service,the market for fossil fuel generators is expansive.Developers and utilities are exploring all manner of solutions to this,including the deployment of renewable distributed e

252、nergy resource systems as well as“undergrid”solutions that bring renewable energy to a minigrid but also allow for a revenue stream to utilities when grid power is available.84 Lastly,utilities in developing economies are sometimes at the forefront of innovative business models.Value-stacking,for ex

253、ample,is a model in which utilities that cannot provide power alone profitably,combine electricity with telecoms,essential infrastructure,or other services to provide a sustainable income stream.The Utility Incentive Structures catalyst report will explore this theme further,but this innovation has

254、been instrumental in expanding electricity service to some of the hardest-to-reach communities.rmi.org/54Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D ESpotlightsTo illustrate these trends,emerging challenges,and opportunities,we analyzed four different experiences that highlight innovative so

255、lutions being pursued in a range of contexts and geographies.These spotlights focus on initiatives that are breaking new ground or are addressing a threshold question to accelerate one or more of the seven priority outcomes.To choose which innovations to spotlight,we considered how each supported th

256、e seven priority outcomes,as well as how scalable or applicable spotlights were to other jurisdictions.While we provide brief summaries in this report,you can find the full spotlights on RMIs Global Energy Transformation Guide:Electricity website.Coal Transition in the United KingdomOnce the worlds

257、largest coal consumer,the UK is on the cusp of entirely phasing out coal generation.In 2015,the UK set a target to phase out coal by 2025,but by 2020,the country moved that up to 2024.This transition represents perhaps the fastest example of rmi.org/55Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U

258、I D Eending coal reliance in an advanced economy,though there are many lessons learned,especially around just transition.The UK used many levers in the transition such as innovative policies and carbon pricing.The UKs historic coal communities,however,have borne the brunt of this transition.Although

259、 recent interventions are seeking to remedy the challenges,a more managed approach might have prevented some of the economic hardships they face.Kenyas Growth through Clean EnergyDuring COP26 in Glasgow,Kenya made the remarkable commitment to achieve a full clean energy transition by 2030.While ambi

260、tious,the pledge is not as implausible as it might be in other places.Kenya,in fact,has deployed significant amounts of clean resources in recent years,including hydroelectric,geothermal,wind,and solar generation,far outpacing investment in fossil fuels.Kenya still faces a number of challenges,such

261、as access to affordable financing,challenging logistics,and institutional capacity issues that make wholesale transformation difficult.Nevertheless,Kenya has shown that renewables can underpin economic growth opportunities when supported by the right institutions.Overcoming Long-Term Fossil FuelGene

262、ration PPAs in ChileCopper mining makes up more than a third of Chiles total electricity consumption.Chiles system was dominated by imported gas,but when Argentina ceased exporting fuel,creating an energy crisis in 200607,prices rose drastically because costly diesel generation was used to make up t

263、he shortfall.Many mining companies secured long-term coal PPAs to ensure cheaper,reliable power.Reforms,however,including structural changes in the wholesale market,interconnection of new rmi.org/56Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D Etransmission,and novel hourly supply auction bloc

264、ks that have caused a dramatic reduction in electricity prices,have forced mining companies to reevaluate their PPAs.While some have opted to simply pay to terminate the PPAs,others looked to more innovative solutions.Engie Energa Chile(EECL),for example,one of the four largest suppliers in the coun

265、try,sought to renegotiate its coal PPAs with off-takers by offering a reduced tariff in exchange for longer commitments.This de-linked the coal PPA from coal indexing,allowing EECL to pay down debt associated with the coal plant investment and ensure a viable cash flow to underpin financing of new r

266、enewables,while providing off-takers with a declining tariff as the share of renewables in the PPA mix increased.Stakeholder-Driven Just Transition in Canada and GermanyThoughtful planning is required to ensure that communities and workers who are dependent on fossil fuel value chains are not harmed

267、 in the energy transition.The transition away from these legacy assets poses significant risks to these communities,including job loss,reductions in property values,lost tax revenues,remediation and cleanup liabilities,and overall uncertain economic development trajectories.In Canada and Germany,coa

268、l development has been concentrated in areas far from the centers of power and with higher levels of poverty and less wealth overall.Unmanaged loss of the industry would devastate their local economies.As such,both countries took a largely stakeholder-driven approach to identify pathways for a just

269、transition.Whereas Canadas approach primarily focused on actions at the local level,Germanys coal commission was more expansive,setting both local and national policy for the coal phaseout.rmi.org/57Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EConclusionThe transition away from fossil fuels

270、is a complex problem,though the falling cost of clean energy has helped reframe discussions of the economic opportunity that the transition offers.This report has identified not only the critical challenges countries are facing in transitioning their electricity systems,but also some of the key oppo

271、rtunities and innovative solutions being pursued.As countries explore transitioning away from coal,new support mechanisms are being explored in Asia and South Africa to allow for broader economic changes while decarbonizing.These processes are designed to ensure that all people and communities benef

272、it from a just energy transition.Similarly,refinancing strategies such as securitization,as well as blended and concessionary financing vehicles,are opening up transition support and clean energy developments while minimizing the impacts to customers and billpayers in places such as Africa and the U

273、nited States.The role of gas is proving to be a contentious topic,especially in developing economies that are seeking ready access to cheap and reliable power.While there may be limited roles for gas in specific circumstances,there are risks associated with locking in a gas investment pathway.Kenya,

274、for example,has demonstrated significant economic growth and expansion of access by investing in rmi.org/58Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D Eits wide variety of available resources,including wind,solar,hydro,and geothermal.While not all countries are similarly blessed,Kenyas attra

275、ctive macroeconomic environment and relatively stable policy environment brought in high levels of foreign direct investment to counter potential fossil fuelgrowth options.The role of the private sector in creating and underpinning demand in new renewable energies in place of fossil fuel generation,

276、as well as mobilizing the flow of capital away from fossil fuels and into clean energy sources,is becoming increasingly influential at the global level.Banks in the Global North have historically dominated investments in new coal,for example,but many have made commitments to lower this exposure,and

277、to date,the top financiers are mainly concentrated in East Asia.Similarly,large corporations are increasingly seeking cheaper,greener electricity supplies,which is putting further pressure on generators,as seen by mine operators in Chile.Finally,the fossil fuel transition must ensure that all people

278、,especially those most vulnerable,benefit from it.New inclusive processes and more equitable solutions are emerging across the globe,whether it is broader economic support,as seen in South Africa,or creating room for stakeholders who were literally“at the coal face”to drive the process,as seen in Ca

279、nada.These efforts are attracting global attention and have the potential to scale throughout the power sector in the years to come.As policymakers,utilities,investors,developers,civil society,and other stakeholders explore ways to support a fossil fuel transition,we hope this report provides inspir

280、ation and lessons from those places that are innovating in the face of similar issues.rmi.org/59Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D EEndnotes1 Boom and Bust Coal 2022,Global Energy Monitor,April 25,2022,https:/globalenergymonitor.org/report/boom-and-bust-coal-2022/.2 The Dirty Footpr

281、int of the Broken Grid:The Impacts of Fossil Fuel Back-Up Generators in Developing Countries,IFC,September 2019,https:/www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/2cd3d83d-4f00-4d42-9bdc-4afdc2f5dbc7/20190919-Full-Report-The-Dirty-Footprint-of-the-Broken-Grid.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CVID=mR9UpXC;and“Electricity Installed G

282、enerating Capacity,”The World Factbook,accessed September 12,2022,https:/www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/electricity/.3“Data and Statistics,”IEA,accessed September 15,2022,https:/www.iea.org/data-and-statistics.4 Net Zero by 2050 A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector,IEA,2021,https:/www.iea.or

283、g/reports/net-zero-by-2050.5 Phillip Cornell,“Sizing the Energy Transition:Higher Investment,More Jobs,and Economic Growth in a 1.5C Pathway,”Economist,January 25,2022,https:/ Ian Parry,Simon Black,and Nate Vernon,“IMF Working Paper:Still Not Getting Energy Prices Right:A Global and Country Update o

284、f Fossil Fuel Subsidies,”IMF,September 2021,https:/www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/09/23/Still-Not-Getting-Energy-Prices-Right-A-Global-and-Country-Update-of-Fossil-Fuel-Subsidies-466004;and“Key Findings,”World Energy Investment 2020,IEA,2020,https:/www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-invest

285、ment-2020/key-findings.rmi.org/60Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D E7 Steven Mufson,“What Could Finally Stop New Coal Plants?Pulling the Plug on Their Insurance,”Washington Post,October 26,2021,https:/ Morgan R.Edwards et al.,“Quantifying the Regional Stranded Asset Risks from New

286、Coal Plants under 1.5C,”Environmental Research Letters 17,no.2(February 2022):024029,https:/doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ec2.9 Felicia Jackson,“Global Renewables Investment Return 7 Times Higher Than Fossil Fuels,”Forbes,March 19,2021,https:/ Fatih Birol and David Malpass,“Its Critical to Tackle Coa

287、l Emissions,”World Bank Blogs,October 8,2021,https:/blogs.worldbank.org/voices/its-critical-tackle-coal-emissions.11“World Energy Balances:Overview World,”IEA,accessed September 27,2022,https:/www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-balances-overview/world.12 Global Energy Review:CO2 Emissions in 2021,IEA,

288、March 2022,https:/www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-co2-emissions-in-2021-2.13 Net Zero by 2050,2021.14“Coal 2021 Executive Summary,”IEA,2021,https:/www.iea.org/reports/coal-2021/executive-summary.15 Josh Saul and Naureen Malik,“As Gas Prices Soar,Nobody Knows How Much Methane Is Leaking,”Blo

289、omberg,May 3,2022,https:/ Extractive Industries for Sustainable Development,”UN Executive Office of the Secretary-General,June 16,2021,https:/doi.org/10.18356/27082245-22.17 The Dirty Footprint,2019.18 Gas Market Report,Q2-2022,IEA,2021,https:/doi.org/10.1787/c49341fc-en.rmi.org/61Fossil Fuel Transi

290、tion StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D E19 Tim Marsters,“Low Hanging Fruit:A Market-Based Solution to Climate Change,”MiQ,accessed September 26,2022,https:/miq.org/insights/low-hanging-fruit-a-market-based-solution-to-climate-change/.20“REPowerEU:Energy Savings and Energy Efficiency,”European Commission

291、Directorate General for Communication,2022,https:/data.europa.eu/doi/10.2775/494246;and“REPowerEU:Affordable,Secure and Sustainable Energy for Europe,”European Commission,accessed September 21,2022,https:/ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal/repowereu-affordable-secure

292、-and-sustainable-energy-europe_en.21 Gas Market Report,Q3-2022,Gas Market Report,IEA,2021,https:/doi.org/10.1787/c49341fc-en;and Jeff Tollefson,“What the War in Ukraine Means for Energy,Climate and Food,”Nature,April 5,2022,https:/ Light for Coal as a Gas Substitute,”Frankfurter Allgemeine,August 7,

293、2022,https:/ Michael ONeill,“South Koreas Dependence on Foreign Energy Affects Its Ability to Block Russian Energy Imports,”Climate Scorecard,May 14,2022,https:/www.climatescorecard.org/2022/05/south-koreas-dependence-on-foreign-energy-affects-its-ability-to-block-russian-energy-imports/;and Emele O

294、nu,“Manufacturers Face Looming Crisis in Nigeria From War in Ukraine,”BNN Bloomberg,May 5,2022,https:/www.bnnbloomberg.ca/manufacturers-face-looming-crisis-in-nigeria-from-war-in-ukraine-1.1761593.24 Gas Market Report,Q3-2022.25 Adele Barbato and Eric Kenny,“Fortune 500 Companies Greenhouse Gas Emis

295、sions,”Recapture,2021,https:/ Kate Larsen et al.,“Chinas Greenhouse Gas Emissions Exceeded the Developed World for the First Time in 2019,”Rhodium Group,accessed September 12,2022,https:/ Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D E26“We Are Accelerating Change towards Zero Carbon Grids at Scale,”

296、RE100,accessed October 2,2022,https:/www.there100.org/about-us.27 Veronika Henze,“Corporate Clean Energy Buying Tops 30GW Mark in Record Year,”BloombergNEF,January 31,2022,https:/ ESG Investing and Climate Transition:Market Practices,Issues and Policy Considerations,OECD,2021,https:/www.oecd.org/fin

297、ance/ESG-investing-and-climate-transition-market-practices-issues-and-policy-considerations.pdf.29 Natasha White and Tasneem Hanfi Brogger,“Chinas Banks Are the Last Big Players in Coal Company Financing,”Bloomberg,April 13,2022,https:/ The Managed Phaseout of High-Emitting Assets,Glasgow Financial

298、Alliance for Net Zero,2022,https:/assets.bbhub.io/company/sites/63/2022/06/GFANZ_-Managed-Phaseout-of-High-emitting-Assets_June2022.pdf.31 Benjamin Attia and Gail Anderson,Belching in the Background:Sizing Africas Distributed Diesel Power Landscape and Displacement Opportunity,Wood Mackenzie,April 1

299、9,2022,https:/ Assets,”Carbon Tracker Initiative,August 23,2017,https:/carbontracker.org/terms/stranded-assets/;and Morgan R.Edwards et al.,“Quantifying the Regional Stranded Asset Risks from New Coal Plants under 1.5C,”Environmental Research Letters 17,no.2(February 2022):024029,https:/doi.org/10.1

300、088/1748-9326/ac4ec2.33 Edwards et al.,“Quantifying the Regional Stranded Asset Risks.”rmi.org/63Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D E34 Jean Eaglesham and Vipal Monga,“Trillions in Assets May Be Left Stranded as Companies Address Climate Change,”Wall Street Journal,November 21,2021,

301、https:/ Platform Pillars,”National Economic Transition Platform,accessed September 13,2022,https:/nationaleconomictransition.org/;Claire Wang et al.,Ensuring an Inclusive Clean Energy Transition:A Recovery and Revitalization Framework for Coal Workers and Communities,RMI,2022,https:/rmi.org/insight/

302、ensuring-an-inclusive-clean-energy-transition/;“The German Energiewende:Transforming Germanys Energy System,”German Federal Foreign Office,accessed September 14,2022,https:/www.auswaertiges-amt.de/blob/610620/5d9bfec0ab35695b9db548d10c94e57d/the-german-energiewende-data.pdf;and“Just Transition Frame

303、work,”Presidential Climate Commission Towards a Just Transition,accessed September 14,2022,https:/www.climatecommission.org.za/just-transition-framework.36 Wang et al.,Ensuring an Inclusive Clean Energy Transition,2022.37 James Rising et al.,Regional Just Transitions in the UK:Insights from 40 Years

304、 of Policy Experience,Resources for the Future,2021,103,https:/media.rff.org/documents/UK_Report_-_with_Appendix.pdf.38 Konrad Grtler,David Lw Beer,and Jeremias Herberg,“Scaling Just Transitions:Legitimation Strategies in Coal Phase-Out Commissions in Canada and Germany,”Political Geography 88(June

305、1,2021):102406,https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2021.102406.39 Annabel Pinker,Just Transitions:A Comparative Perspective,The James Hutton Institute&SEFARI Gateway,August 25,2020,https:/www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/independent-report/2020/08/transitions-comparative-pers

306、pective2/documents/transitions-comparative-perspective/transitions-comparative-perspective/govscot:document/transitions-comparative.rmi.org/64Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D E40 Net Zero by 2050,2021.41 Renewable Energy and Jobs Annual Review 2021,International Renewable Energy A

307、gency(IRENA)and International Labour Organization,2021,https:/www.irena.org/publications/2021/Oct/Renewable-Energy-and-Jobs-Annual-Review-2021.42 Elrika Hamdi and Putra Adhiguna,Indonesia Wants to Go Greener but PLN Is Stuck With Excess Capacity,Institute for Energy Economic and Financial Analysis,N

308、ovember 2021,https:/ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Indonesia-Wants-to-Go-Greener-but-PLN-Is-Stuck-With-Excess-Capacity_November-2021.pdf.43 Karn Vohra et al.,“Global Mortality from Outdoor Fine Particle Pollution Generated by Fossil Fuel Combustion:Results from GEOS-Chem,”Environmental Researc

309、h 195(April 1,2021):110754,https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2021.110754.44 Paul Wilkinson et al.,“A Global Perspective on Energy:Health Effects and Injustices,”The Lancet 370,no.9591(September 15,2007):96578,https:/doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(07)61252-5.45 H.-O.Prtner et al.,eds.,Climate Change 2022:I

310、mpact,Adaptation,and Vulnerability,Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,2022,https:/www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf.46 Pat Wood III et al.,Never Again:How to Prevent Another Major Texas Electricity Failure,Public Utility Commission of Texas,June 3,2021,h

311、ttps:/www.cgmf.org/blog-entry/435/REPORT-%7C-Never-Again-How-to-prevent-another-major-Texas-electricity-failure.html.47 Carey W.King et al.,The Timeline and Events of the February 2021 Texas Electric Grid Blackouts,University of Texas at Austin Energy Institute,July 14,2021,https:/energy.utexas.edu/

312、sites/default/files/UTAustin%20%282021%29%20EventsFebruary2021TexasBlackout%2020210714.pdf.48 Tom Knutson,“Global Warming and Hurricanes,”Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory,accessed September 14,2022,https:/www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/.49 Wang et al.,Ensuring an Inclusive Clea

313、n Energy Transition,2022.rmi.org/65Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D E50 Laurie Stone,“Keeping the Lights On during Hurricanes,”RMI,August 25,2021,https:/rmi.org/solar-under-storm-three-years-on/.51 Jevgenijs Steinbuks and Fidel Perez-Sebastian,“How Brazils Investment in Hydropower

314、 Infrastructure Contributed to Its Long-Term Development,”World Bank Blogs,March 15,2022,https:/blogs.worldbank.org/energy/how-brazils-investment-hydropower-infrastructure-contributed-its-long-term-development.52 Jeff Fick,“Petrobras Triples LNG Imports in 2021 amid Drought,Pipeline Work,”S&P Global

315、 Commodity Insights,January 13,2022,https:/ Bill Chappell,“The EU Just Proposed a Ban on Oil from Russia,Its Main Energy Supplier,”NPR,May 4,2022,https:/www.npr.org/2022/05/04/1096596286/eu-europea-russia-oil-ban.54 Statistical Review of World Energy,BP,2021,https:/ Dolf Gielen,Michael Taylor,and Ba

316、rbara Jinks,“Renewables and Green Gas:The Only Viable Antidote to High Fossil Fuel Prices,”IRENA,February 24,2022,https:/www.irena.org/newsroom/expertinsights/2022/Feb/Renewables-and-green-gas.56 Christian Fong and Sam Mardell,“Securitization in Action:How US States Are Shaping an Equitable Coal Tra

317、nsition,”RMI,March 4,2021,https:/rmi.org/securitization-in-action-how-us-states-are-shaping-an-equitable-coal-transition/.57“Global Electricity Demand Is Growing Faster than Renewables,Driving Strong Increase in Generation from Fossil Fuels,”IEA,July 15,2021,https:/www.iea.org/news/global-electricit

318、y-demand-is-growing-faster-than-renewables-driving-strong-increase-in-generation-from-fossil-fuels.58“Energy Efficiency as a Resource,”American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy,accessed September 14,2022,https:/www.aceee.org/topic/ee-as-a-utility-resource.rmi.org/66Fossil Fuel Transition Stra

319、tegiesG L O BA L G U I D E59 Energy Efficiency 2021,IEA,2021,https:/ Efficiency Potential by Sector,”Sustainable Energy for All,June 25,2017,https:/www.seforall.org/data-stories/energy-efficiency-potential-by-sector;and Energy Efficiency:A Compelling Global Resource,McKinsey&Company,accessed Septemb

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321、nergy-economy.62 Paul Bodnar et al.,How to Retire Early:Making Accelerated Coal Phaseout Feasible and Just,RMI,2020,https:/rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/rmi_how_to_retire_early.pdf.63 Niels de Hoog and Ashley Kirk,“Current Coal Phaseout Pledges Absolutely Not Enough,Warn Experts,”Guardian,acces

322、sed September 14,2022,https:/ Assessing the Flexibility of Coal-Fired Power Plants for the Integration of Renewable Energy in Germany,Deloitte,October 2019,https:/ Flexibility in Conventional Power Plants:Innovation Landscape Brief,IRENA,2019,20,https:/www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Public

323、ation/2019/Sep/IRENA_Flexibility_in_CPPs_2019.pdf?la=en&hash=AF60106EA083E492638D8FA9ADF7FD099259F5A1.65“Norways Petroleum History,”Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy,December 5,2022,https:/www.norskpetroleum.no/en/framework/norways-petroleum-history/.rmi.org/67Fossil Fuel Transition Strateg

324、iesG L O BA L G U I D E66“Emissions to Air,”Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy,September 9,2022,https:/www.norskpetroleum.no/en/environment-and-technology/emissions-to-air/.67 Trent Jacobs,“Equinor Set to Produce 650,000 BOED Using Onshore Power by 2025,”April 23,2021,Journal of Petroleum Te

325、chnology,https:/jpt.spe.org/report-equinor-set-to-produce-650-000-boed-using-onshore-power-by-2025;Steinar Birkeland et al.,“Electrification and Other Measures to Minimize Carbon Emissions from the Johan Sverdrup Field,”Offshore Technology Conference,OnePetro,2020,https:/doi.org/10.4043/30898-MS;and

326、“Lundin-Energy,”Lundin Energy,accessed September 14,2022,https:/www.lundin- RystadEnergy,“Norway Offshore Electrification Could Drive Increased M&A Activity,”August 28,2020,https:/ Clean Energy for All,”CEBA,accessed September 14,2022,https:/cebuyers.org/;and“We Are Accelerating Change,”RE100.70 Ver

327、onika Henze,“Corporate Clean Energy.”71 Ibid.72“Corporate Renewable PPAs:A Framework for the Future?,”Norton Rose Fulbright,accessed April 12,2022,https:/ Jyoti,”India Brand Equity Foundation,accessed September 14,2022,https:/www.ibef.org/government-schemes/ujala-yojna.74“Ujala,”Energy Efficiency Se

328、rvices Limited,accessed September 14,2022,https:/eeslindia.org/en/ourujala/.75 Marcel Alers and Benjamin Jones,Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reforms:Lessons and Opportunities,United Nations Development Programme,2021,https:/www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2021-10/UNDP-Fossil-Fuel-Subsidy-Reforms-Le

329、ssons-and-Opportunities.pdf.rmi.org/68Fossil Fuel Transition StrategiesG L O BA L G U I D E76 David Gumbs and Kaitlyn Bunker,“A Greener Caribbean Is Possible with Resilient Distributed Energy,”RMI,June 18,2020,https:/rmi.org/a-greener-caribbean-is-possible-with-resilient-distributed-energy/.77 Jaros

330、law Wajer,“Why Eastern Europe Is Stepping Up a Gear in the Drive for Net Zero,”Ernst&Young Global Limited,October 12,2021,https:/ Wajer,“Why Eastern Europe Is Stepping Up a Gear in the Drive for Net Zero,”2021.79“Chile Energy Auctions,”IEA,May 12,2021,https:/www.iea.org/policies/6550-chile-energy-au

331、ctions.80 Tristan Edis,“Chile Goes 100%Renewables in Power Procurement Auction,”Advertiser,October 30,2015,https:/.au/business/breaking-news/chile-goes-100-renewables-in-power-procurement-auction/news-story/9f7816320405f9ad788b373aa2acecf9.81 Shahriyar Nasirov et al.,“Policy Makers Perspectives on t

332、he Expansion of Renewable Energy Sources in Chiles Electricity Auctions,”Energies 12,no.21(January 2019):4149,https:/doi.org/10.3390/en12214149.82 Rebecca Bertram,“Good News from Chile,”Energy Transition,May 11,2021,https:/energytransition.org/2021/05/good-news-from-chile/.83“Demand Aggregation for

333、Renewable Technology(DART)Program,”All On,accessed September 14,2022,https:/www.all- the Cost Effectiveness of Distributed Energy Projects through Aggregated Procurement Mechanisms,”Odyssey Energy Solutions,accessed September 14,2022,https:/ Sachi Graber and James Sherwood,“Community Resilience through Nigerias First Undergrid Minigrid,”RMI,July 21,2020,https:/rmi.org/community-resilience-through-