1、The Quantum DecadeA playbook for achieving awareness,readiness,and advantage Third editionHow IBM can helpPartnerships in quantum computing between technology providers and visionary organizations are expanding.Their aim is nothing short of developing quantum computing use cases and corresponding ap

2、plications that solve previously intractable real-world problems.The IBM Quantum Network is a global ecosystem of over 180 Fortune 500 companies,leading academic institutions,start-ups,and national research labs,enabled by IBMs quantum computers,scientists,engineers,and consultants.Participants coll

3、aborate to accelerate advancements in quantum computing that can produce early commercial applications.Organizations that join the IBM Quantum Network can experiment with how their high-value problems map to a real quantum computer.Today,they can access over 20 quantum computing systems,including tw

4、o 127-qubit Eagle IBM Quantum processors via the IBM Cloud.By 2023,we expect a 1,000-qubit quantum computer will be available to explore practical problems important to industries.Visit https:/ for more information.IBM Institute for Business ValueThe IBM Institute for Business Value(IBV)delivers tru

5、sted,technology-based business insights by combining expertise from industry thinkers,leading academics,and subject-matter experts with global research and performance data.The IBV thought leadership portfolio includes research deep dives,benchmarking and performance comparisons,and data visualizati

6、ons that support business decision-making across regions,industries,and technologies.For more information,follow IBMIBV on Twitter,and to receive the latest insights by email,visit A playbook for achieving awareness,readiness,and advantage Third editionTheQuantum Decade iThe Quantum DecadeContents v

7、ii Foreword 1 Introduction9 Chapter One:Quantum awareness and the age of discovery29 Chapter Two:Quantum readiness and the power of experimentation49 Chapter Three:Quantum Advantage and the quest for business value 73 Industry Guides:75 Airlines81Bankingandfinancialmarkets87Chemicalsandpetroleum 93E

8、lectronics99Healthcare105Lifesciences111LogisticsAnthony Annunziata Director of Accelerated Discovery IBM QuantumJoseph Broz Vice PresidentGrowth and Markets IBM QuantumDavid Bryant Program Director IBM QuantumJoel Chudow Strategic and Industry Partnerships Global Lead IBM QuantumCharles Chung Elect

9、ronics Industry Consultant IBM QuantumChristopher Codella Future of Computing Distinguished Engineer IBM QuantumDan Colangelo Service Parts Planning Program Manager IBM SystemsScott Crowder Vice President IBM Quantum CTO IBM SystemsKristal Diaz-Rojas Chief of Staff to Jamie Thomas,General Manager IB

10、M SystemsStefan Elrington Global Lead for Start-ups IBM QuantumFrederik Flther Life Sciences and Healthcare Industry Consultant IBM QuantumJay Gambetta IBM Fellow and Vice President Quantum Computing IBM QuantumJeannette Garcia Senior Research Manager Quantum Applications and Software IBM QuantumDar

11、o Gil Senior Vice President and Director IBM ResearchJonas Gillberg Chemicals and Petroleum Industry Consultant IBM QuantumHeather Higgins Industry and Technical Services Partner IBM QuantumIBM faces of The Quantum Decade Thank you to the IBM team who participated in and facilitated interviews and c

12、ase studies.iiRaja Hebbar Associate Partner&Global Quantum Delivery Leader for Enterprise IBM QuantumAntonio Crcoles Research Staff MemberIBM QuantumEdward Pyzer-Knapp Senior Technical Staff Member and Worldwide Research Lead AI-Enriched Modeling and Simulation IBM Research Jean-Stphane Payraudeau M

13、anaging Partner Offering Management,Assets,IBM Institute for Business Value,and Industry Centers of Competence IBM Global Business Services Michael Hsieh Government Squad Leader IBM QuantumNoel Ibrahim Financial Services Industry Consultant IBM Quantum iiiBlake Johnson Quantum Platform Lead IBM Quan

14、tumMariana LaDue Travel and Transportation Industry Consultant IBM QuantumJesus Mantas Senior Managing Partner IBM Global Business ServicesTushar Mittal Senior Product Manager IBM QuantumZaira Nazario Theory,Algorithms,and Applications Technical Lead IBM QuantumImed Othmani Industry Consulting Partn

15、er IBM QuantumHanhee Paik Research Staff Member IBM QuantumBob Parney Industrial Process Squad LeaderIBM QuantumVeena Pureswaran Associate Partner and Global Research Leader for Quantum Computing IBM Institute for Business ValueTravis Scholten Quantum Computing Applications ResearcherIBM QuantumJame

16、s Sexton IBM Fellow and Director Data Centric SystemsIBM ResearchClaudine Simson Director,Core AI,Exploratory Science,Major Strategic Accounts,Global Executive Oil and Gas/Energy/ChemicalsIBM Corporate HeadquartersGalen Smith Supply Chain,Blockchain,AI,and IoT Program ManagerIBM SystemsJamie Thomas

17、General Manager,Systems Strategy and Development IBM Systems Kenneth Wood Global Business Development Director IBM Quantum Gavin Jones Manager,Quantum Applications Technical Quantum Ambassador IBM QuantumivThe Quantum Decade Perspectives from across the field Thank you to these quantum computing aut

18、horities who shared their expertise with us.Ching-Ray Chang Distinguished Professor Department of Physics National Taiwan UniversityRichard Debney Vice President Digital TechnologyBPIlyas Khan Founder and CEO Cambridge Quantum ComputingTodd Hughes Technical DirectorStrategic Projects and Initiatives

19、 CACIGlenn Kurowski Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer CACISabrina Maniscalco Professor of Quantum Information and Logic University of Helsinki CEOAlgorithmiq OyAjit Manocha President and CEO SEMIPrineha Narang Assistant Professor of Computational Materials Science Harvard University

20、 Jeff Nichols Associate Laboratory Director Oak Ridge National LaboratoryChristopher Savoie Founder and CEOZapata ComputingChristian Weedbrook CEOXanadu Quantum TechnologiesColonel(Retired)Stoney Trent Founder and PresidentThe Bulls Run GroupIrfan Siddiqi Professor of Physics University of Californi

21、aBerkeleyPeter Tsahalis CIO of Strategic Services and Advanced TechnologyWells FargoDoug Kushnerick formerly with Technology Scouting and Ventures ExxonMobil Research and EngineeringA snapshot of IBM technical experts who are advancing quantum computing Andrew Cross Research Staff Member and Manager

22、Theory of Quantum ComputingIBM QuantumSergey Bravyi IBM Fellow and Chief Scientist for Quantum TheoryIBM QuantumJerry Chow IBM Fellow and Director of Quantum InfrastructureIBM QuantumAntonio CrcolesResearch Staff MemberIBM QuantumJeannette Garcia Senior Research Manager Quantum Applications and Soft

23、wareIBM Quantum Abhinav Kandala Research Staff MemberIBM QuantumKatie Pizzolato Director,IBM Quantum Strategy and Applications ResearchIBM QuantumChristy Tyberg Senior Manager Quantum Computing IBM QuantumMaika Takita Research Staff Member IBM QuantumMatthias SteffenIBM Fellow and Chief Quantum Arch

24、itect IBM QuantumKristan Temme Research Staff MemberIBM QuantumOliver Dial IBM Fellow and Chief Quantum Hardware ArchitectIBM QuantumIsmael Faro Distinguished Engineer and Chief Architect Quantum Computing,Cloud,and SoftwareIBM QuantumLiz Durst Director Quantum ComputingIBM QuantumJay Gambetta IBM F

25、ellow and Vice President Quantum Computing IBM QuantumSarah Sheldon Senior Manager Quantum Theory and Capabilities IBM Quantum vviThe internal quantum computing components are held at temperatures close to absolute zero.The microwave control lines contain loops to allow for contraction as the device

26、 cools down.vii viiForewordDaro GilSenior Vice President and Director of IBM Research First,there was theory.Charlie Bennett first wrote the words“quantum information theory”in his notebook in 1970.Paul Benioff,Richard Feynman,Yuri Manin,and other quantum computing pioneers of the early 1980s used m

27、ath and theoretical quan-tum mechanics to argue their case.Their message was clear:A computer is a physical system.If you want to effi-ciently compute the“non-computable,”you had to rethink how to do computation.Quantum mechanics offers a rich computational modeltherefore,we had to build a quantum c

28、omputer.Then came qubits.Just like that,with the first two-qubit quantum computer built in 1998,theory started to morph into reality.Qubits are the building blocks of a quantum computer,and today at IBM we make them out of tiny super-conducting circuits that behave like atoms.They can be in linear c

29、ombinations of multiple states,can interfere,and be entangledso that when one qubit changes its state,its entangled partner does,too.Sounds mind-boggling,and it is.Its the weird but wonderful realm of quantum mechanics,and weve managed to harness its powers.Its these abilities of qubits to entangle

30、and interfere that should allow future quantum computers to perform more powerful computa-tions than traditional computers will ever be able to do.Now,we are fast approaching the development of practical applications that exhibit Quantum Advantagewhen quantum plus classical computers could soon outp

31、erform the use of classical computers alone in a meaningful task.We expect to see this achievement this decade.Our quantum computing systems continue to improve in scale,quality,and speed of operation.We have ever more powerful tools to combine classical and quantum com-putations that allow us to ru

32、n ever more complex computations.For years now,researchers,developers,and other domain experts across industry and academia have been part of a growing quantum-ready workforce,using IBMs quantum computers through the cloud to explore new appli-cations and formulate practical problems that will be cr

33、ucial to achieving Quantum Advantage.I urge others to join them,too.By exploring quantum computers possibilities today,we are shaping the world of tomorrow.Whether you work for a bank,a chemical company,an airline,or a manufacturing giant,quantum computation could give your industry an edge.Soon,tho

34、usands of entangled qubits could uncover previously inaccessible solutions to simulations of nature and structure in data that can help us find new materials,more efficiently extract insights from data,or accurately predict risk.Read TheQuantumDecade to find out how you,too,can be quantum readyand h

35、ow this bleeding-edge technology can help you and your business thrive the moment quantum computers come of age.Because that moment is closer than you think.InsightsPriorities of a post-pandemic worldAs entire industries face greater uncertainty,business models are becoming more sensitive to and dep

36、endent on new technologies.Quantum computing is poised to expand the scope and complexity of business problems we can solve.The future of computing The integration of quantum computing,AI,and classical computing into hybrid cloud workflows will drive the most significant computing revolution in 60 y

37、ears.Quantum-powered workflows will radically reshape how enterprises work.The discovery-driven enterpriseEnterprises will evolve from analyzing data to discovering new ways to solve problems.When combined with hyper-automation and open integration,this will ultimately lead to new business models.vi

38、ii 1The Quantum DecadeIntroduction For decades,quantum computing has been viewed as a futuristic technology:it would change everything,if it ever moved from the fantastical to the practical.Even in recent years,despite billions of dollars in research investment and extensive media coverage,the field

39、 is sometimes dismissed by real-life decision makers as too arcane,a far-off,far-out pursuit for academics and theorists.As we progress through the Quantum Decade the decade when enterprises begin to see business value from quantum computing that perspective is quickly becoming an anachronism.Becaus

40、e quantum computing is coming of age,and leaders who do not understand and adapt to the Quantum Decade could find themselves a step or more accurately,years behind.Over the next few years,we foresee a pro-found computing revolution that could significantly disrupt established business models and red

41、efine entire indus-tries.Historically,crises have been the impetus for both new technologies and their widespread adoption.World War I ushered in factory processes that are still in place today.The Cold War accelerated the creation of the Advanced Research Projects Agency Network(ARPANET),a predeces

42、sor to the internet,in the late 1960s.And now COVID-19 has driven an increased need for agility,resiliency,and accelerated digital maturity.We anticipate quantum computing in combination with existing advanced technologies will dramatically impact how science and business evolve.By accelerating the

43、discovery of solutions to big global challenges,quantum computing could unleash positive dis-ruptions significantly more abrupt than technology waves of the past decades.To the nth degree The power of exponential growthPerspectiveThe basics Understanding the exponential power of quantum computingCla

44、ssical computer bits can store information as either a 0 or 1.That the physical world maintains a fixed structure is in keeping with classical mechanics.But as scientists were able to explore subatomic matter,they began to see more probabilistic states:that matter took on many possible features in d

45、ifferent conditions.The field of quantum physics emerged to explore and understand that phenomena.The power of quantum computing rests on two cornerstones of quantum mechanics:interference and entanglement.The principle of interference allows a quantum computer to cancel unwanted solutions and enhan

46、ce correct solutions.Entanglement means the combined state of the qubits contains more information than the qubits do independently.Together,these two principles have no classical analogy and modeling them on a classical computer would require exponential resources.For example,as the table below des

47、cribes,representing the complexity of a 100-qubit quantum computer would require more classical bits than there are atoms on the planet Earth.QubitsClassical bits required to represent an entangled state 2 512 bits 3 1,024 bits 10 16 kilobytes 16 1 megabyte 20 17 megabytes 30 17 gigabytes 35 550 gig

48、abytes 100 280more than all the atoms on the planet Earthmore than all the atoms in the universe2 3The building blocks of quantum computing are already emerging.Quantum computing systems are running on the cloud at an unprecedented scale,compilers and algorithms are rapidly advancing,communities of

49、quantum-proficient talent are on the rise,and leading hardware and software providers are publishing technology roadmaps.The technologys applicability is no longer a theory but a reality to be understood,strategized about,and planned for.And good news:the steps you should take to prepare for future

50、quantum adoption will begin to benefit your business now.Quantum computing will not replace classical computing,it will extend and complement it.But even for the problems that quantum computers can solve better,we will still need classical computers.Because data input and output will continue to be

51、classical,quantum computers and quantum programs will require a combination of classical and quantum processing.It is precisely the advances in traditional classical computing,plus advances in AI,that are driving the most important revolution in computing since Moores Law almost 60 years ago.1 Quant

52、um computing completes a trinity of technologies:the intersection of classical bits,qubits,and AI“neurons.”The synergies created by this triad not quantum computing aloneare driving the future of computing(see Figure 1).“ThetimebetweenthefirstIndustrialRevolutionandthesecondwasaround80years,andfromt

53、hesecondtothethirdaround90years.Butthetimebetweenthethirdandthefourth wasreducedtoabout45yearsthankstodisruptionsenabledbysemiconductorssuchastheInternetofThings(IoT),artificialintelligence(AI),machinelearning,virtualreality,and4G.IexpectthetimetoIndustry5.0willbefurtheracceleratedtoroughly30yearsby

54、quantumcomputingandmanyadditionaldisruptions.”Ajit Manocha President and CEO SEMIFigure 1 The most exciting computing revolution in 60 years The convergence of three major technologiesBitsNeuronsQubitsSecure,heterogeneous computational fabric Hybrid cloudNeurons AI systemsBits Classical high perform

55、ance computer systemsQubits Quantum systems4The IBM Institute for Business Value(IBV)has been deeply engaged in conducting more than a dozen industry-and practice-based studies on quantum computing.2 Weve elevated that research here with new insights gleaned from interviews with more than 50 experts

56、,including IBM quantum computing researchers as well as clients,partners,and academics.This report on the Quantum Decade provides exec-utives with strategies to prepare for the upcoming business transfor-mation from quantum computing.It identifies the most important factors,themes,and actions to tak

57、e at this significant inflection point.What makes this the Quantum Decade?What will the quantum-powered world look like?And what can and should farsighted leaders and organizations do now to educate and position themselves effectively?The key learnings revolve around three phases of organizational e

58、volution:awareness,readiness,and advantage(see Figure 2).Figure 2 The path to Quantum Advantage Taking a foundational approach with digital transformationPhase 1AwarenessComputing paradigm evolving from an age of analytics to an age of discovery Phase 2ReadinessAccelerating digital transformation in

59、 the context of preparing for quantum computing Phase 3AdvantageWhere quantum computers plus classical systems can do significantly better than classical systems alone AwarenessAccording to the IBVs 2021 CEO study,89%of the more than 3,000 chief executives surveyed didnotcite quantum computing as a

60、key technology for delivering business results over the next two to three years.3 For the short term,thats understandable.But quantum computing with 1,000 qubits is projected to be available as early as 2023.4 Given the technologys disruptive potential this decade,CEOs should start mobilizing resour

61、ces to grasp early learnings and start the journey to quantum now.CEOs who ignore quantums potential are taking a substantial risk,as the consequences will be much greater than missing the AI opportunity a decade ago.5 Phase 1 of the quantum computing playbook requires broad recognition that the lan

62、dscape is changing.The primary shift is a computing paradigm thats evolving from an age of analytics(looking back at established data and learning from it)to an age of discovery(looking forward and creating more accurate models for simulation,forecasting,and optimization).Theres real potential for u

63、ncovering solutions that were previously impossible.“CEOsofFortune500companieshaveaonce-in-a-lifetimeopportunity.Theycannotaffordtoplaycatch-up.Itstimetobreaktraditionand educatethemselvesaboutwhatquantumcomputingcandoforthem.”Ilyas Khan Founder and CEO Cambridge Quantum Computing 5IBM Chairman and

64、CEO Arvind Krishna,seated on the“super-fridge”at an early stage of its construction ReadinessEnterprises cannot use quantum computing to solve big problems yet.But quantum computing has shattered timelines and exceeded expectations at every phase of development.Its not too soon for organizational le

65、aders to explore how the advent of this new technology could alter plans and expectations.Phase 2 involves investigating big questions:How could your business model be disrupted and reshaped?How could quantum computing supercharge your current AI and classical computing workflows?What is the quantum

66、 computing“killer app”for your industry?How can you deepen your organizations quantum computing capabilities,either internally or through ecosystems?Now is the time to experiment and iterate with scenario planning.Find or nurture talent who is fluent in quantum computing and capable of educating int

67、ernal stakeholders about the possibilities,and partner for“deep tech”quantum computing resources.But just as important is another critical question:What does your organization need to establish now to apply quantum computing when its production-ready?Indeed,laying the foundation for quantum computin

68、g also means upping your classical computing game.Enhanced proficiencies in data,AI,and cloud are necessary to provide the required fertile ground for quantum computing.Accelerating your digital transformation in the context of quantum computing readiness will provide a pragmatic path forward while

69、delivering significant benefits now.After all,quantum computing doesnt vanquish classical computing.The trinity of quantum computing,classical computing,and AI form a progressive,iterative partnership in which theyre more powerful together than separately.“Whenpeoplethinkofquantumcomputingnow,theyth

70、inkofresearcherstryingtofigureouthowtoapplyquantumcomputing.Tenyearsfromnow,thosequestionswillbeanswered.Atthatpoint,itwillbeaboutwhether youareusingquantumcomputinginwaysothersarenot.”Prineha Narang Assistant Professor of Computational Materials Science Harvard University6AdvantagePhase 3,Quantum A

71、dvantage,occurs when a computing task of interest to business or science can be performed more efficiently,more cost effectively,or with better quality using quantum computers.This is the point where quantum computers plus classical systems can do significantly better than classical systems alone.As

72、 hardware,software,and algorithmic advancements in quantum computing coalesce,enabling significant performance improvement over classical computing,new opportunities for advantage will emerge across industries.But prioritizing the right use cases those that can truly transform an organization or an

73、industry is critical to attaining business value from quantum.Getting to Quantum Advantage will not happen overnight.But while that advantage may progress over months and years,it can still trigger exponential achievements in usage and learning.From exploring the creation of new materials to persona

74、lized medical treatments to radical shifts in business models across the economy,change is coming.Organizations that enhance their classical computing capabilities and aggressively explore the potential for industry transformation will be best positioned to seize Quantum Advantage.“Thereisahugecompe

75、titioninthebigproblemspaceintheenergy industry.Whoevergetstherefirstwillhaveasignificantadvantage.”Doug Kushnerick formerly with Technology Scouting and Ventures ExxonMobil Research and Engineering“Thebestofquantumcomputingisyettocome.ThereareapplicationswherewepresumeQuantumAdvantagewillplayout.And

76、thereisavasterspaceofquantumcomputingapplicationsthatwedontknowyet.Thatswhatwillredefinewhatspossible.”Irfan Siddiqi Director of the Advanced Quantum Testbed Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Professor of Physics University of California,Berkeley 7Insights The 1,000-qubit milestoneQuantum comput

77、ing hardware is on a trajectory to scale from 127 qubits in 2021 to 1,000 qubits by 2023 to practical quantum computing,characterized by systems executing error-corrected circuits and widespread adoption,by 2030.Cloud-based open-source development environments will make using quantum computers“frict

78、ionless.”The hybrid cloud futureMany quantum programs involve interactions between classical and quantum hardware.But these interactions introduce latencies,or delays,which must be reduced to optimize capacity.This makes hybrid clouds the most viable future for quantum computing.The power of ecosyst

79、emsQuantum computing ecosystems with opportunities for collabor-ative innovation and open-source development are fast becoming fertile grounds for training users to apply quantum computing to real problems.8Tackling the worlds problemsFrom discovering new drugs to managing financial risk to re-engin

80、eering supply chains,there is an urgency to accelerate solutions to increasingly complex societal,macroeconomic,and environmental problems on a global scale.IBM Quantum System One one of the worlds most powerful commercially available quantum computers 9Chapter OneQuantum awareness and the age of di

81、scovery When new technologies emerge,they can be daunting to comprehend fully especially when theyre as complex as quantum computing.But developing a base understanding is critical for appropriately aligning both technology and business strategy.In this chapter,we explain the case for quantum comput

82、ing what is happening now to create an inflection point and then explore how the triad of classical computing,AI,and quantum computing will move us from an age of analytics driven by mining data for insights to one defined by accelerated experimentation and discovery.We also outline the implications

83、 for enterprises in a discovery-driven environment.10The case for the Quantum DecadeThe Quantum Decade will be driven by mounting pressure to solve the biggest business and societal computational problems,a trajectory toward 1,000 qubits by 2023 and practical quantum computing by decades end,and eco

84、systems of developers that can unleash this power onto real,intractable problems(see Figure 3).An increased urgency to solve big problemsImagine discovering new materials for solar panels that help us obtain clean energy more efficiently.Or accurately simulating aircraft parts in minutes as opposed

85、to years.Envision drug development that can sometimes grind on for a decade coming to fruition in months.Increasingly,these problems fall into ambitious,industry-altering,data-driven science.In this realm,enterprise discovery builds on data and AI,accelerating cycles of exploration that allow organi

86、zations to aggregate knowledge,resolve questions,and enhance operations and offerings.6 Planetary-scale issues such as climate change,world hunger,and the possibility of more pandemics require powerful new tools to achieve breakthroughs.Quantum computing can help expedite solutions to these complex

87、computational problems that face business and society.Figure 3 What makes this the Quantum Decade?Three factors propelling us forwardMounting pressure to solve exponential problemsQuantum technology at a tipping point Quantum ecosystems scalingDiscovery of new materials Managing complex financial ri

88、sk Re-engineering supply chains for resilienceHardware scaling from 127 qubits in 2021 to 1,000 qubits in 2023Software developments for frictionless quantum computingAlgorithmic improvements and greater circuit quality,capacity,and varietyOpen innovation fosters collaborative learning Users trained

89、to apply quantum computing to real-world problems3.5 billion circuits on IBM Quantum Services per day2022|Probabilistic error cancellation in noisy quantum processors 2007|The transmon superconducting qubit2017|Quantum demonstrations 0(10)qubits Quantum applications using hardware-efficient quantum

90、circuits(IBM)Quantum error mitigation developed(IBM)Provable quantum advantage with short-depth circuits(IBM)Error mitigation for universal gates on encoded qubits Provable exponential speedup using quantum kernels|2021 IBM makes quantum computing available on IBM Cloud|2016 Experimentally factoring

91、 15(IBM)|2001 Shors factoring algorithm|1994 1995|Quantum error correction 1984|Quantum cryptography(IBM)1970|Birth of quantum information theoryPaul Benioffs quantum mechanical model of computers|1980 The information we need for significant breakthroughs on global problems may exist but we lack the

92、 computing power to harness and use it productively.To understand why requires some background.Classical computing has long enabled an age of analytics.Existing systems rely on storing and manipulating individual computing bits saved in binary form as either 1s or 0s that help us process vast volume

93、s of data.Quantum computers work in a fundamentally different way via so-called quantum bits or qubits,which can represent information using more dimensions(see Perspective,“Head-spinning facts about quantum computing”on page 15).Exploiting the properties of quantum mechanics,quantum computers excel

94、 at the challenge of evaluating multitudes of options that lend themselves well to these properties and exploring problems that have thus far been intractable.The quantum tipping pointQuantum computing is not new.Its been the subject of theories and experiments since it was first postulated by Paul

95、Benioff,Richard Feynman,and others in the early 1980s.7 During the 1990s,preliminary mathematical and algorithmic work took place;the 2000s focused on physically representing qubits;and in the 2010s,multi-qubit systems were demonstrated to be viable,as well as accessible on the cloud (see Figure 4).

96、“Wemustapplyquantumcomputingtoimprove humanlife.Thenextgenerationneedstobenefit fromquantumcomputing.”Ching-Ray Chang Distinguished Professor Department of Physics National Taiwan UniversityFigure 4 A quantum leap Historic milestones in quantum computing 1112 2019 Run quantum circuits on the IBM Clo

97、udModel developersAlgorithm developersKernel developersQuantum systemsFigure 5 The IBM quantum computing roadmap Recent progress and looking ahead 2020 Demonstrate and prototype quantum algorithms and applications 2021 Run quantum programs 100 x faster with Qiskit Runtime 2022 Bring dynamic circuits

98、 to Qiskit Runtime to unlock more computations 2023 Enhancing applications with elastic computing and parallelization of Qiskit Runtime 2024 Improve accuracy of Qiskit Runtime with scalable error mitigation 2025 Scale quantum applications with circuit knitting toolbox controlling Qiskit Runtime 2026

99、+Increase accuracy and speed of quantum workflows with integration of error correction into Qiskit Runtime Qiskit Runtime Dynamic circuits Threaded primitives Error suppression and mitigation Error correction Circuits Osprey433 qubits Heron133 qubits x p Condor1,121 qubits Scaling to 10k100K qubits

100、with classical and quantum communication Kookaburra4,158+qubits Flamingo1,386+qubits Crossbill408 qubits Eagle127 qubits Hummingbird65 qubits Falcon27 qubits Quantum software applications Prototype quantum software applications Machine learning|Natural science|Optimization Intelligent orchestration

101、Quantum Serverless Circuit libraries Circuit knitting toolbox Quantum algorithm and application modules Machine learning|Natural science|OptimizationSo,whats happening now?The advance of quantum computing has reached a tipping point.In 2020,the state of the art in quantum com-puting was an IBM syste

102、m with 65 qubits.That doubled to 127 qubits in 2021,is expected to triple to more than 400 qubits in 2022,and more than double again to over 1,000 qubits by 2023.But to reach their full potential,quantum computers could require hun-dreds of thousandsperhaps even millionsof high-quality qubits.And wh

103、ile qubit number is often used as a milestone,it doesnt tell the whole story.Its just one component of the bigger picture.For example,quantum scientists and engineers are developing ways to link different genres of processors together into scalablemodular systems that could transcend the limitations

104、 that exist today.The combination of classical and quantum parallelization techniques and multichip quantum processors can scale quantum computing with modular hardware and the accompanying control electronics and cryogenic infra-structure.Pushing modularity in both software and hardware will be key

105、 to achieving scale well ahead of our competitors this decade.8To that end,the IBM quantum computing roadmap ushers in the age of the quantum-centric supercomputer and lays out a path toward frictionless quantum computing(see Figure 5).The quantum-centric supercomputer will incorporate quantum proce

106、ssors,classical processors,quantum communication networks,and classical networks,all working together within an intelligent quantum software orchestration platform to completely transform how computing is done.Perspective Three types of problems made for quantum computingIn the near-to-medium term,q

107、uantum computing could be especially adept at solving three types of problems:simulation such as modeling processes and systems that occur in nature;search and graph involving searching for the best or “optimal”solution in a situation where many possible answers exist;and algebraic problems includin

108、g applications for machine learning.1314A quantum-centric supercomputer can serve as an essential technology to help solve the worlds toughest problems.It could open up new,large,and powerful computational spaces for industries globally,and enable useful applications sooner than most are expecting b

109、ased on a purely fault-tolerant perspective.In addition to scale,other attributes are required.In 2019,IBM developed the Quantum Volume(QV)metric to measure the computational power of a quantum computer.QV addresses highly technical issues,including gate and measurement errors,crosstalk,device conne

110、ctivity,and compiler efficiency.Other vendors are starting to report their progress on computational quality using QV.IBM has been successfully doubling QV every year.In fact,IBM doubled it three times in 2020.This is a Moores Law level of increase,even as Moores Law itself has been abating for trad

111、itional computing(see Perspective,“Classical computing The trouble with Moores law”on page 16).As quantum computing evolves and begins to tackle practical problems,how much work quantum computing systems can do in a given unit of time merits greater attention.Real workloads will involve quantum-clas

112、sical interactionsfull programs that invoke a quantum processor as an accelerator for certain tasks,or algorithms requiring multiple calls to a quantum processor.Consequently,the runtime system that allows for efficient quantum-classical communication will be critical to achieving high performance.T

113、his runtime interaction is embedded in IBMs proposal for the Circuit Layer Operations Per Second(CLOPS)benchmark.9 CLOPS is a metric correlated with how fast a quantum processor can execute circuitsspecifically,the metric measures the speed the processor can execute layers of a parameter-ized model

114、circuit of the same sort used to measure Quantum Volume.One of the key aims for productive use of quantum hardware is to support a variety of circuits,with the ability to create more complex circuits,including,for example,dynamic circuits.Dynamic circuits use very low latency classical instructions

115、that can exploit information obtained from measurements occurred during the circuit to define future components of the circuit.This enables the construction of more efficient quantum circuits and is a fundamental capability needed for quantum error correction.Quantum error correction can protect qua

116、ntum information by using multiple physical qubits to encode information in a single logical qubit.Quantum computers must be able to run a diversity of circuits to effectively solve a variety of problems(see case study,“Woodside Energy”on page 17).“MooresLawiscomingtoanendand classicalcomputingisrea

117、chingitslimits justasourdemandisstartingtosurge.”Richard Debney Vice President,Digital Technology BP Perspective Head-spinning facts about quantum computing(that you may not need to know)To say the least,much about quantum computing is counterintuitive.While you do need to understand quantum computi

118、ngs power and potential to develop strategies and evaluate use cases,the good news is you dont need to be a quantum physicist or theorist thats what your partners and ecosystems are for.Still,interesting facts to ponder:Fact one.Quantum computing exploits a fundamental principle of quantum mechanics

119、 that a physical system in a definite state can still behave randomly.The system is in a superposition,which is a linear combination of two or more states.Fact two.Classical computing bits are either a 0 or a 1.But in quantum computing,quantum bits,or qubits,can be in an infinite number of states al

120、l at the same time,a superposition of both 0 and 1.Think of a coin.If you flip a coin,its either up or down.But if you spin a coin,its dimensional possibilities increase exponentially.Fact three.Along those same lines,in binary logic,things either“are”or they“are not.”Quantum computers dont have thi

121、s limitation,allowing a more accurate reflection of reality.Fact four.Superpositions are not inherently quantum.For example,when several music tones create sound simultaneously,the surrounding air is in a superposition.Whats unique to quantum mechanics is that in some circumstances when you measure

122、a quantum superposition,you get random results,even though the state of the system is definite.Fact five.Measuring a classical bit doesnt change it.If a bit is a 0,it measures as a 0,and the same for a 1.But if the qubit is in a quantum superposition,measuring it turns it into a classical bit,reflec

123、ting a 0 or 1.Fact six.Entanglement is a property of a quantum system in which two qubits that are far apart behave in ways that are individually random,yet are inexplicably correlated.Two entangled qubits individually measured can give random results.But when you look at the system as a whole,the s

124、tate of one is dependent on the other.The combined system contains more information than the individual parts.Hard to wrap your head around?Einstein himself called it“spooky action at a distance.”10 Fact seven.Quantum computers can use interference to cancel paths that lead to incorrect solutions an

125、d enhance the paths containing the correct solution.Fact eight.Noise causes qubits to lose their quantum mechanical properties,hence they must be kept isolated from any source of noise.There are different ways to build qubits.A leading way is leveraging superconductivity to build devices with quantu

126、m mechanical properties that can be controlled at will.But for the qubits to work,they have to be kept in a“super-fridge”at extremely cold temperatures of 10 to 20 millikelvins colder than the vacuum of space.11 15Perspective Classical computingThe trouble with Moores LawIn 1965,Gordon Moore observe

127、d that the number of transistors on a given area of a silicon computer chip was doubling every year.He predicted this doubling of density would continue well into the future,though the time frame was later revised to 18 to 24 months.12For Moores Law to survive this long,chip designers and engineers

128、have consistently shrunk the size of features on chips.The most advanced labor-atories today are experimenting with chip features that measure only 5 nanometers.(A nanometer is 1 billionth of a meter.)These features are so small that some need to be measured in individual atoms.But now,physical limi

129、ts are creating serious headwinds for Moores Law.Some chip industry leaders point to the massive expense and effort required to sustain it.One estimate is that the research effort to keep Moores Law on track this far has increased by a factor of 18 since 1971.And the facilities needed to build moder

130、n chips will cost$16 billion apiece by 2022.13What all this indicates:the slowdown of improvements in classical computing only escalates the importance of integrating quantum computing with classical systems.Doubling up Scaling Quantum Volume by 2x per year9196916151

131、4654327520025201720272029Quantum Volume(QV)Log2 of the number of computations per integrated functionQV 512 Woodside Energy Introducing quantum kernels into classical machine learning workflows14In classical machine learning,algorithms sometimes use kernels (similari

132、ty measures between two pieces of data)to solve classification or regression problems.Usually,kernels are used to increase the dimensionality of the data to separate it,thereby boosting accuracy of the algorithm.Recently,IBM researchers proved the existence of quan-tum kernels providing a super-poly

133、nomial advantage over all possible classical binary classifiers and requiring only access to classical data.Researchers from Woodside Energy,a leading natural gas producer in Australia,saw an interesting opportunity to collaborate with IBMs quantum researchers.Could quantum kernels be practically de

134、ployed in industry-relevant classical machine learning workflows?As part of their exploration of quantum computing,the teams wanted to understand how to define those kernels using quantum circuits and reduce the amount of quantum computing resources required to eval-uate them.This involved connectin

135、g properties of quantum circuits to properties of kernels and assessing how well those kernels worked.The commonly understood way of using quantum kernels in classical machine learning workflows requires one query to a quantum proces-sor for every kernel value to be calculated.Instead of evaluating

136、every value this way,to reduce the calls to the quantum computer and make it more practical,the team began research combining quantum kernels with classical algorithms for matrix completion that answers the following question:Taking a collection of kernel values calculated using a quantum computer,c

137、ould the researchers use that information with the classical algorithm to accurately predict what an uncalculated value might be?Investigating this approach raised some essential questions,including:Could leveraging state-of-the-art completion techniques lower the number of queries required,thereby

138、making the use of quantum kernels more practical,more quickly?Do these kernels provide useful benefits to Woodside Energy,such as enhanced classification accuracy in their industry data sets?Can predictions be made relating properties of quan-tum circuits to the ease with which quantum kernels can b

139、e completed?Woodside Energy considers this research a“pathfinder project”that establishes a foundation for subsequent experimentation.The company is continuing this line of thinking by researching literature about other quantum circuit families used as building blocks for other applications.Going fo

140、rward,the additional data can help Woodside refine its predic-tions about the tractability of quantum kernels and where they could be most useful.One potential use case:applying this technology to petro-physical analysis of well log data.1718“Quantumcomputingisnotjustanexpansionofclassicalcomputing.

141、Wecantjustportproblemstoquantumcomputers.Weneedto breakthemdownandbuildcommunitiesthatcaneffectivelyapply thistechnologytotherightproblems.”Richard Debney Vice President,Digital Technology BPBut the speed and power of quantum computing alone do not define the Quantum Decade.The exponential increase

142、of qubits is impressive,but if that brute computing force is inaccessible and inapplicable to real problems,were back to abstract theory.Fortunately,the power of quantum is accessible.Historically,if you wanted computing power,you had to build or install and maintain the machines yourself.But now,th

143、anks to the cloud,even highly sophisticated quantum computers are attainable.In fact,a programmer can sit at his or her laptop and create a quantum circuit using quantum gates.When the software sends the circuit via the cloud to a quantum computer,the machine converts those gates into microwave puls

144、es.In turn,the pulses control the physical qubits,which work their magic on the problem at hand.The results are returned translated back into classical bits to the programmer.15 This frictionless interface is what will unleash quantum computing to todays developer communities.Open ecosystems are sca

145、ling A decade ago,quantum computing experts were predominantly Ph.D.physicists in labs a valuable commodity thats still in short supply.But communities of developers,not necessarily Ph.D.s or other physicists,are beginning to appear.These communities include chemists,electrical engineers,and mathema

146、ticians,among others.Theyre learning and applying quantum concepts,even in classical computing environments.Ecosystems fostering open innovation have sprung up and are training software developers to apply quantum computing to real problems.IBM started one such open-source community,Qiskit,to build

147、the necessary code development tools and libraries for quantum developers.The community also offers skills development for thousands of quantum students.Over 2 billion quantum circuits are run per day over IBM Quantum Services using real quantum computers.16 19From analysis to discoveryFigure 6 Prog

148、ress through the ages The road to quantum-accelerated discovery202nd paradigmTheoretical scienceScientific laws Physics Biology Chemistry 1600s1st paradigmEmpirical scienceObservations Experimentation Pre-Renaissance3rd paradigmComputational scienceSimulations Molecular dynamics Mechanistic models 1

149、9504th paradigmBig data-driven scienceBig data Machine learning Patterns Anomalies Visualization 20005th paradigmQuantum-accelerated discoveryScientific knowledge at scale AI-generated hypotheses Autonomous testing 2020Increasing speed,automation,and scaleThe advances in quantum computing have been

150、significant,but what are their practical implications?How will they impact our ability to address complex problems at scale?In its early days,science was empirical and theoretical.People observed and measured phenomena,such as the motion of objects;made hypotheses and predictions about why they happ

151、ened;and tested them repeatedly.Computersand eventually AI and supercomputerschanged that,ushering in the age of analytics.We can now ingest massive amounts of data and develop models for how systems will behave.We can also now model chemical systems,move individual atoms,and simulate how some mater

152、ials will perform or react over millions of uses.But some challenges remain beyond our reach.While we may be able to model a chemical system,these classical models work well for problems where we already have data.These models are not based on the underlying physics of how molecules behave and are t

153、herefore imprecise.We dont have the toolset to address these shortcomings.As powerful as it is,classical computing has fundamental limitations in the face of exponential problems(see Figure 6).2122IBM and Cleveland Clinic Using the power of quantum to tackle key healthcare challenges17IBM and Clevel

154、and Clinic,a nonprofit academic medical center that integrates clinical and hospital care with research and education,have announced a planned 10-year partnership to establish the Discovery Accelerator.Cleveland Clinic and IBM will strive to advance discovery in healthcare and life sciences through

155、high performance computing using hybrid cloud,AI,and quantum computing technologies.Through the Discovery Accelerator,researchers anticipate using advanced computational technology to generate and analyze data to help enhance research in the new Global Center for Pathogen Research&Human Health.Resea

156、rch is expected to focus on areas such as genomics,single-cell transcriptomics,population health,clinical applications,and chemical and drug discovery.As a critical component,IBM plans to install an on-premises,private-sector IBM Quantum System One on the Cleveland Clinic campusthe first installatio

157、n in the US.This quantum program will be designed to engage with universities,government,industry,start-ups,and other organizations.It will leverage Cleveland Clinics global enterprise to serve as the foundation of a new quantum ecosystem for life sciences,focused on advancing quantum skills and the

158、 mission of the center.In addition to the on-premises IBM Quantum System One,Cleveland Clinic will have access to IBMs current fleet of more than 20 quantum systems,accessible via the cloud.IBM is targeting the unveiling of its first next-generation,1,000+qubit quantum system in 2023,and Cleveland C

159、linic is slated as the site of the first private-sector,on-premises system.23“ThiswillbetheQuantumDecadeifwecanapplyquantum computingtodiscoveronething,heretoforeunimaginable,thatprogressesourlineofinquiryintothefuture.”Todd Hughes Technical Director,Strategic Projects and Initiatives CACIThats wher

160、e quantum computing,in combination with classical computers and AI,comes in.This triad is poised to generate discovery at a radically faster pace.Consider the amazing impact of research involving mRNA,a single-stranded RNA molecule that is complementary to one of the DNA strands of a gene.18 This re

161、search expedited COVID-19 vaccine development:decoding the virus to vaccine creation took only a few weeks,followed by months of clinical trials and broad release in a year.19 Yet this was only possible because we already had a decades worth of mRNA research to leverage.With quantum computing,that k

162、ind of discovery might itself be compressed,especially when starting with a blank slate,vastly accelerating vaccine development and efficacy and easing the pain of future pandemics.So many of our best practices in healthcare remain approximations:extrapolating information from large data pools and a

163、pplying it to individuals.In many ways,we are still using trial-and-error techniquesmore sophisti-cated,certainly,but hardly treatment tailored to each specific individual.Quantum computings step-change capabilities hold the promise of eventually creating personalized medicine,matching therapeutics

164、to an individuals genome(see case study,“IBM and Cleveland Clinic”).24“Thematerialsdiscoveryprocessisunbearablyslow.Companies donthavetimetoexperimentendlessly.Quantumcomputing cangiveusanexponentialleapindiscovery.”Doug Kushnerick formerly with Technology Scouting and Ventures ExxonMobil ResearchFi

165、gure 7 Scaling the scientific method From questions to hypotheses to reportsThis dream can become a reality by supercharging how experimentation is done.You may recall learning about the basics of the scientific method as a child:a sequence that runs from observation,to question,hypothesis,experimen

166、t,results,and finally,conclusion.With classical computing,weve been able to speed up that process.The triad of classical,AI,and quantum computing can supercharge the scientific method(see Figure 7).The unprecedented ability to model complex systems will accelerate the ability to extract,integrate,an

167、d validate so that we can draw conclusions.We are already using AI to generate hypotheses automatically and using robotic labs to automate physical experimentation.The greater ability of quantum computing will expand the possibilities that can be evaluated before moving to physical experimentation,a

168、nd accelerate the entire discovery process as a result.“For the first time,the loop in the scientific method is closing,”as the 2021ScienceandTechnologyOutlook from IBM Research puts it.“Each breakthrough is a step toward realizing the dream of discovery as a self-propelled,continuous,and never-endi

169、ng process.”20 By accelerating discovery and more rapidly translating knowledge into practice,all kinds of new leaps will be possible.Healthcare is only one area of application.Another scenario:quantum computing can be put to work on finding new materials.These capabilities may improve the efficienc

170、y of solar panels,wind turbines,and battery life.As we will explore in the Industry Guides on page 73,the applications to specific industries are myriad.Accelerated scientific methodHypothesize Generative models automatically propose new hypotheses that expand the discovery spaceTest Robotic labs au

171、tomate experimentation and bridge digital models and physical testingAssess Pattern and anomaly detection is integrated with simulation and experimentation to extract new insightsReport Machine representation of knowledge leads to new hypotheses and questionsStudy Extract,integrate,and reason with k

172、nowledge at scaleQuestion Tools help identify new questions based on needs and gaps in knowledge 25The discovery-driven enterpriseIn organizational terms,what will emerge from the Quantum Decade is a new kind of discovery-driven enterprise(see Figure 8).Just as cloud has increasingly virtualized the

173、 traditional enterprise,the injection of quantum will open new possibilities.The computing triad will revolutionize how businesses manage and operate market-making business platforms enabled by intelligent or AI-driven workflows.By examining how people work,AI can already help determine the most eff

174、icient or effective workflows.Tasks can then be routed to tradi-tional or quantum systems one or more quantum computers working with a classical computing system depending upon which is the best option.Once information technologists establish a workflow,a user need not know where or how the computat

175、ion is being done.No specialized knowledge of quantum computing would be required.Just a decade ago,those who appreciated the potential of AI and took steps to prepare for it and implement what they could along the way are now the outperformers.21 Today,we are in the Quantum Decade,and as we acceler

176、ate the pace of discovery,enterprises of all kinds need to pay close attention.Figure 8 A new normal The emerging discovery-driven enterpriseEnterprise characteristics Enabling technologiesBusiness intelligence,consumer-led innovationNetwork computing,consumer-facing apps on public cloudCloud worklo

177、ad complexityData-drivenAI-drivenDiscovery-drivenAnalysis DiscoveryTodayIntelligent workflow,enterprise-led innovationAI and automation,mission-critical workflows on cloudScientific method at scale,external and internal dataComplex hybrid cloud workflowsTime26A view from below an IBM Quantum cryosta

178、tQuestions to ask Question One How would your team,your executives,and your board define the case for quantum computing?Question Two What steps are you taking to become or compete witha discovery-driven enterprise that includes quantum computing?Question Four What are some viable ecosystems through

179、which you can access powerful,scalable quantum computing capabilities on the cloud?Question Three How are you educating yourself and your key talent on quantum computing possibilities?27InsightsThe power of quantum literacyYou can develop partnerships and join ecosystems for“deep tech”quantum know-h

180、ow.What you do need on your team is literacy in quantum computing potential a fluency that can help you conduct experiments and scope out the advantages for your organization.The hidden workflow opportunityGetting more value from quantum computing requires examining workflows for quantum computing o

181、pportunities and modes of inter-action with classical systems.But readiness will take more than quantum computing literacy and experimentation.It requires preparing your classical enterprise to integrate quantum computing deeply into new ways of working and new business models.Dont go it aloneThe sp

182、eed at which quantum computing is improving and expanding makes it difficult for many companies to keep up.Being part of a quantum computing ecosystem can provide access to technology and talent that might not be accessible otherwise.28 29Chapter TwoQuantum readiness and the power of experimentation

183、“There is no doubt that quantum computing technology will be ready for business this decade.There will be multiple million-qubit quantum machines by 2030,”says Christian Weedbrook,CEO of Xanadu Quantum Technologies.“The question is,are you ready?”The short answer is,“maybe if you act now.”Quantum co

184、mputing readiness is a continuously evolving state that depends on your general approach to,and investment in,innovation,as well as new talent and skills,and overall digital maturity.This readiness includes your adoption of enabling technologies such as automation,AI,and hybrid cloud;your willingnes

185、s to analyze,experiment,and iterate with evolving computing capabilities;the sophistication of your workflows;and your organizational skillset.Your industry and location factor in as well.Industries fluctuate in their quantum computing readiness based on competitive pressure and concentration,growth

186、 and innovation requirements,and quantum computings potential for solving industry-specific computational problems.Countries and regions can vary by geographical context,mainly with respect to investment,education and skills,regulation,and ecosystem availability.And ecosystems themselves must achiev

187、e readiness to provide viable support.But still,partnering with the optimal ecosystem can be an astute way to alleviate fluctuations in readiness,regardless of your location or industry.Think of it like this:Getting a head start in a technology such as quantum computing is analogous to the power of

188、compounded interest.Waiting a couple of years and letting early adopters pull away can give them an exponential lead.Encouraging news:You dont need on-staff Ph.D.s in quantum computing to get started.Yes,the world of qubits,superposition,and entanglement can be a slippery slope best left to quantum

189、experts,and it does take Ph.D.-level proficiency to create novel intellectual property.But by developing partnerships and joining ecosystems for“deep tech”quantum computing know-how,that can be surmountable.What you do need on your team is literacy in quantum computing potential a fluency that can h

190、elp scope out the advantages for your organization.The exciting and challenging part is applying that literacy to business problems.What are the current limitations in your industry?Dig deeper.What limitations are causing those limitations?How would dissolving these seemingly intractable barriers re

191、shape your industry?Where are the stumbling blocks in how you mobilize computing and design workflows today?Where are your industry and organization headed in 10 years?Complex real-world problems may not be solvable until we progress toward fault-tolerant quantum computing the Quantum Decades culmin

192、ation.This is a class of quantum computing where you can run general-purpose quantum programs compiled across both quantum and classical resources.Fault-tolerant computers incorporate procedures that help prevent errors from multiplying and spreading,allowing them to run quantum circuits arbitrarily

193、 close to correct even when their physical components are faulty.We are already learning how quantum computing can contribute to our understanding of problems big problems,at that.Its helping researchers explore the development of new materials.Over time,it can contrib-ute to developing earth-friend

194、ly,efficient fertilizers to support the global food supply chain.On a genuinely cosmic level,it could be a key player in investigating the mysteries of how our universe is stitched together.22Experiments by design:Applying quantum literacy to real problems“Executivesneedtounderstandwhatquantumcomput

195、ingcan solveinthenextdecade.Theyneedtolookacrossthestack,evaluatethecost,anddeterminetheadvantage.”Jeff Nichols Associate Laboratory Director Oak Ridge National Laboratory30 31But lets think shorter term.To achieve quantum readiness,you need to define the art of the possiblenowthrough problem scopin

196、g,experimen-tation,and iteration.This can involve one or a combination of several approaches used independently or together(see Figure 9).The pyramid approach.Industry-essential problems,by their nature,are complex.This approach involves experimenting and learning in an iterative way,using classical

197、 decomposition and heuristic techniques to deliver an abundance of potential solutions.Then,quantum processes identify a subset of optimal solutions that rise,in this analogy,to the top of the pyramid.In other words,classical approaches can provide a good set of solution options,then quantum systems

198、 can optimize.This enables refining larger solution sets and transcending smaller,theoreti-cal options that are not of any robust consequence.The analyze-and-extract approach.Solving a complex problem in its entirety could require a million qubits.For now,the strategy needs to involve extracting the

199、 parts that are solvable with classical computing and reserving the other segments for quantum computing and its extreme computational power.Its like a dissection.The problem undergoes analysis at various stages:preparation,deconstruction,then resolving each deconstructed part.For now,this usually s

200、hakes out to align classical computation with data understanding,decomposition,and the computation it can handle;quantum capabilities align with specialized computation.Additionally,this process of deconstructing and reconstructing the problem in different ways helps to see it differently perspectiv

201、es that can ascertain even greater eventual value from quantum computing.The benchmarking framework approach.Both classical and quantum computing are far from static.Theyre improving and evolving constantly,especially quantum computing.Experiments can benchmark problems against classical and quantum

202、 capabilities at one time and then re-run them against improved hardware,software,algorithms,error correction capabilities,and so forth.Isolating and identifying those specific quantum computing improvements and strategically applying them to broader problem sets can help advance quantum readiness a

203、nd the path to Quantum Advantage.The potential for quantum computing is tremendous,even if the concepts themselves are esoteric.But experimenting and iterating with quantum computing can demonstrate the power of conceptualizing outside the box(see case study,“IBM Services Supply Chain”on page 32).As

204、 you evaluate scenarios and develop experiments for your industry,creating a tangible roadmap for quantum readiness can bring the esoteric very much down to earth.Whats critical is experimenting with state-of-the-art quantum computing hardware,most likely through an ecosystem.“Itsnotjustdecomposing,

205、butrethinkingand recomposingproblemsforquantumcomputers.”Christopher Savoie Founder and CEO Zapata ComputingFigure 9 Envision,experiment,learn Experimental approaches for applied learningReadiness over timeIncrease of quantum capabilities LearnEnvisionExperimentLearnEnvisionExperimentLearnEnvisionEx

206、periment32IBM Services Supply Chain23A quantum-fueled search for more accurate demand forecastingPredicting the future is it possible?Across industries,organizations give it their best shot in multitudes of areas:demand forecasting,inventory forecasting,capacity forecasting,and more.But classical co

207、mputing forecasting techniques can suffer from low accuracy.As an example,for demand forecasting,the challenge of aligning supply chains with quickly changing demand is daunting.Even consistent forecast improvements of just 1%can have a significant financial impact.In services,there is a larger comp

208、onent of independent demand driven by variable failure characteristics.With that in mind,IBM researchers are preparing a demonstration that pairs quantum and classical computing techniques to make demand forecasting more efficient.To that end,researchers are working with IBM Services Supply Chain(SS

209、C),an organization responsible for servicing data centers by storing and delivering field-replaceable service parts.IBM SSCs millions of dollars of inventory encompass more than 2,000 different parts housed in 114 warehouses located around the US.Depending on the severity of the issue,delivery needs

210、 to occur within one of four specific timing windows:two hours,four hours,one day,or two days.As a result,IBM SSCs forecasting challenge is to predict how many parts are needed when and where.The researchers used a two-step approach to the scenario.The first was to apply demand pattern classificatio

211、n with example patterns that include:Fast Demand is continuousSlow Demand is intermittent,with time periods that have zero demand Inactive Demand becomes inactiveRare Few orders or one-time order 33Then,the researchers executed the appropriate forecasting algorithm for the demand pattern.Both classi

212、fication and forecasting could be done using a combination of classical and quantum(see figure below).Classical and quantum computing work together as a team,with quantum doing the computa-tional heavy lifting part of the workflow.Quantum machine learning models have the potential for greater genera

213、lizability,which means forecasting algorithms could achieve greater accuracy with new data.While classical computing can complete these workflows without quantum computing,as the researchers refine their techniques,theyre getting closer to understanding the role quantum computing can play.This is go

214、ing to be essential in areas such as predictive maintenance,in which IoT sensors are increasingly a source of data.And for safety-related maintenance,such as airplane parts,the increased performance and accuracy of quantum machine learning models could become a necessity.As with many quantum computi

215、ng experiments,this classification and forecasting work is both foundational and evolving,providing IBM researchers the platform to explore quantum algorithms and capabilities for business forecasting.Upon completion,researchers will have a tangible demon-stration that maps a business problem to qua

216、ntum computing.And it will help to illustrate a critical point:Classical and quantum computing are not competitors.Rather,they are complementary technologies that,together,can be more effective.Quantum activity Data engineeringDataFeature extraction Combining classical and quantum The forecasting wo

217、rkflow ClassificationQuantum kernelSupport vector classificationDemand pattern classification ForecastingQuantum kernelSupport vector regressionForecast34Quantum-fueled process workflows“Quantumcomputerswontcannibalizeclassicalcomputers.Quantumcomputerswillhelpwithcertaindifficult optimizationsthate

218、xistinworkflows.Itwillbeadditive.”Christopher Savoie Founder and CEO Zapata Computing“Weneedtospendmoretimeonwhatpartoftheworkflowquantum computingcanaddress.Notmysteriousphysics,butthemissionand businessproblemsthatitcansolveinatransformativemanner.”Glenn Kurowski Senior Vice President and Chief Te

219、chnology Officer CACIThinking small and incrementally can be an expeditious route to Quantum Advantage,especially when integrating quantum computing into your workflows.A workflow is essentially a tree of tasks,with functionalities spanning adaptive customer and vendor interactions,proactive executi

220、ve decision support,targeted employee training,and other AI applications.24 However,workflows can encounter difficulty in comprehensively computing large amounts of complex data in a timely manner.As a result,businesses may be forced to employ computed approximations even in the face of pressing mar

221、ket demands.Examples could include workflows involving complex networks such as distribution,transportation,communications,or logistics.Applications of quantum computing are almost always in terms of accelerating a process or sub-process within a workflow.Getting more value from quantum computing re

222、quires examining workflows for quantum computing opportunities and modes of interaction with classical systems(see case study,“OLED screens”on page 36).Evaluating quantum computing in this way requires a broad focus on industry transformation.How can quantum computing partner with classical computin

223、g within a particular context?What workflow subsec-tions are best suited for quantum computing?The intellectual analysis required in assessing workflows for classical versus quantum computing can result in a fresh perspective on the workflow itself as can the potential range of results that quantum

224、computing provides.Quantum computing can be conducive to computation that generates unexpected breakthroughs yielding new efficiencies,sharper methodologies,and more meaningful modes of engagement with both internal and external stakeholders.35OLED screens Brighter,more efficient displays through qu

225、antum-driven simulation25Whats the one thing that comes between humans and their phones?The screens,also known as flat panel displays.But these displays are one of the highest power-consuming components in smartphones,often limiting battery lifetimes.New,advanced materials can produce brighter displ

226、ays that are more efficient and less power hungry.But developing these new materials requires labor-and time-consuming traditional lab research methods.The process spans several development stages,including material identification,process development,device prototyping,and qualification testing.Trad

227、itionally,progress in this realm has been slow.For organic light-emitting diode(OLED)displays,34 years passed from the first reported observance of electroluminescence in an organic molecule (1963)to the first OLED display commercially available on the market(1997).26 But quantum computers can contr

228、ibute to a brisker pace.Quantum computing can help commercialize new materials with faster,more accurate molecular modeling of both the materials as well as their interactions with manufacturing processes and operating conditions.These new materials can produce brighter,lower-power,lower-cost displa

229、ys that may expedite their commercialization,enabling com-panies to offer more compelling,more competitive products sooner.Materials simulation with classical computing currently has limited application in the development of new materials.The time required to accurately simulate molecular scenarios

230、of sufficient complexity quickly expands beyond practical time frames.As a result,without accurate computer simulations,laborious and costly experimental methods must be employed.With the quantum computing approach,quantum simulations can be used across the workflow to more realistically simulate ma

231、terials and their interactions with device operation,manufacturing processes,and the operating conditions.More complex and more accurate molecular-level materials simulations can enable productive experimentation on the computer,reducing costly,cumbersome lab research and manufacturing development.T

232、hese quantum computing-driven material simulation workflows can create strategic,competitive product advantages such as brighter,lower-power displays.And the potential financial rewards are considerable.Just a 1%revenue increase per year could mean an additional$320 million for the OLED display mark

233、et.27 36 37AutomationBlockchainAIIoTThe intelligent workflow:Adding the power of quantum“Processworkflowsalonemissthecomplexityofreal-world work.Quantumcomputingwillchangetherelationship amongpeople,technology,andwork.”Colonel(Retired)Stoney Trent,Ph.D.Founder and President The Bulls Run GroupAt IBM

234、,we define intelligent workflows as extended end-to-end systems that,through the application of technology at scale,define the customer experience and influence economic results.28 These workflows are more expansive than simple processes and traditionally have used technologies such as automation,bl

235、ockchain,AI,5G,cloud,and edge computing to contribute to exceptional outcomes.IBM research shows that using these classical computing technologies in workflows can triple the benefits.29 Incorporating the power of quantum computing has the potential to improve on that exponentially(see Figure 10).In

236、 fact,were approaching a revolution thats driving computing toward highly heterogeneous environments.Increasingly,classical,AI,and quantum computing will be integrated into intelligent workflows managed on a hybrid cloud.As you evaluate quantum computing in the context of intelligent workflows,heres

237、 an analogy.Processes function as an organizational backbone.But intelligent workflows serve as the organizations nervous system in short,theyre interconnected and interdependent.These workflows differ from simple processes because they extract information from the ecosystem,sense and determine the

238、appropriate response,and send feedback to other workflows.30 Quantum computing,with its ability to evaluate many options,excels here.Figure 10 The booster shot Intelligent workflows powered by quantum computing38EcosystemsMarketOutcomesExtended intelligent workflowQuantum computingIntelligent workfl

239、ows are creatively crafted models with a fresh approach to both data and innovative technology.Establishing these workflows and enhancing the requisite AI,data,and cloud capa-bilities can benefit your business now,while youre laying the groundwork for quantum(see Perspective,“Intelligent workflows”o

240、n page 40).Other considerations include the reality of quantum computing breaking Rivest-Shamir-Adleman(RSA)and elliptic curve crypotgraphy(ECC)encryption,and the need to migrate to existing quantum-safe cryptography.31 By their very definition,intelligent workflows are inherently based on a mix of

241、technologies and that mix can and should include quantum computing.Intelligent workflows thrive in an open,loosely coupled architecture,for starters,that connects applications and technical approaches.Their ability to leverage hybrid environments is critical,given most organizations are accessing qu

242、antum computing on the cloud versus developing the infrastructure themselves.Even if your organization uses a more simplified process approach,establishing some foundational intelligent workflows can be an excellent segue into quantum computing.In the intelligent workflow framework,quantum computing

243、 may be intuitively thought of as an acceler-ator at first a booster technology to supplement classical computing where extra power is needed.But in reality,quantum computing is acatalystfor deep industry business model revolutions that can spawn disruptive services and modes of consumption.For thes

244、e revolutions to happen,enterprises need to develop a strategic compass that guides them toward optimal opportunities.They also need to shore up the ability to apply quantum computing within classical business environments from technology,process,and people perspectives.In short,enterprises need to

245、establish a quantum-receptive infrastructure and when the technology fully comes to fruition,theyll be ready.“Itwouldbeverystrangeifanymajorcloudplatformin2030 doesnothaveaquantumplay.Quantumisgoingtobemore impactfulthanAIorsupercomputers.”Christian Weedbrook CEO Xanadu Quantum Technologies 39Develo

246、ping intelligent workflows can help you prepare for quantum computing and their business-enhancing properties can create organizational benefits now.The four steps below outline a broad framework for incorporating emerging technologies,curating data,and embracing a hybrid cloud environment.With that

247、 infrastructure in place,organizations can progress to analyzing sub-workflows for quantum computing acceleration opportunities.1.Embed emerging technologies,including AI and machine learning,to change ways of working.Apply other emerging technolo-gies to build highly dynamic and intelligent workflo

248、ws that radically change how work gets done and new experiences are designed.In particular,strengthen AI and machine learning capabil-ities,which partner exceptionally well with quantum computing.2.Drive value from data.Leverage curated data across intelligent workflows to mine the most important va

249、lue pools.Establish robust governance to engender trust in your data and AI models so decisions can be pushed out to the front lines of the organization.Identify sub-workflow components of exceptional complexity that would benefit from quantum algorithms.3.Deploy through hybrid cloud.Use the journey

250、 to a hybrid cloud to access data and put it to new use,house intelligent workflows,and modernize applications in an open and de-risked manner.Use this flexibility to seek out opportu-nities for experimenting with cloud-based quantum computing.4.Evaluate sub-workflows best suited to quantum computin

251、g acceleration.Explore options relating to quantum emulators,or better yet,join an open-source quantum computing ecosystem.Such a community provides access to quantum computing on a manageable scale,providing a low-commitment“laboratory”for experimentation.Classical and quantum computing usage shoul

252、d be choreographed for quantum computing to most effectively augment classical functions.40PerspectiveIntelligent workflows as a foundation for quantum computing acceleration32 41Figure 11 On solid ground Laying the foundation for quantum computingTo get to this point requires key capabilities(see F

253、igure 11).None of them are about mastering quantum technology itself.Rather,theyre about enhancing enterprise skills,technical capabilities,and forward-looking strategies that will enable the quantum computing revolution to take root and thrive.The good news:Taking a pragmatic,agile,and iterative ap

254、proach to quantum computing now isnt just about reaping future rewards.This strategy can start to deliver significant business benefits today.For example,setting up a modern dynamic delivery model and open innovation platform through a hybrid cloud can yield its own significant returns in your class

255、ical enterprise.33 In parallel,they advance your ability to seamlessly integrate quantum computing when it is production-ready.By enhancing your classical computing environment now while also investing in experimentation and quantum-ready workflows,you are better positioned to accelerate your path t

256、o Quantum Advantage.41OperationsGovernance and oversight to help ensure successful execution of the quantum computing roadmapTalent strategy and culture to build a high performing teamInnovation processes that create a quantum-enabled solution that meets business needsAgile practices that result in

257、high velocity of R&D and iterative solution designTechnology DevSecOps framework to build,test,deploy,and update quantum computing applicationsAI and other advanced computational model maturity for supporting quantum computing-addressable workflowsHybrid cloud architecture that enables orchestration

258、 and interoperation of quantum-classical workloadsStrategyAbility to convert quantum computing market information into actionable insights on opportunities and threatsProficiency to capture business value from quantum-triggered strategies,capabilities,and innovation initiativesExpertise to secure an

259、d protect intellectual property(IP)or quantum computing technologies Influence of regulations and standards related to intended use of quantum computing42The quantum computing ecosystem talent trackIn this global,complex economy,no business can do everything itself.We rely on partners,specific exper

260、tise,and ecosystems to leverage the best of what is availableand to exploit and demonstrate our own differentiating value-add.The speed at which quantum computing is improving and expanding makes it difficult for many companies to keep up,and the cost of“going it alone”could be prohibitive.Being par

261、t of a quantum computing ecosystem can provide access to that technology when it might not be possible otherwise.And these ecosystems also provide a window into better understanding quantum computings implications and how they relate to your business issues.Determining exactly what those business pr

262、oblems are,and how quantum can play,requires expertise.Organizations can strive to build their own in-house quantum computing team,and to an extent that could be necessary.But ecosystems provide valuable supplementation or even substitution for in-house quantum computing talent,especially of the dee

263、ply technical sort.Due to limited availability,attempts to build or bring quantum computing skills in-house are very challenging.But the most advanced ecosystems are already stockpiling talent.Keeping the following questions in mind can help effectively align ecosystems with talent needs.34 What is

264、your type of business problem?You may not yet possess the expertise to explain your issue in terms of quantum capabilities,but you undoubtedly have a broader-brush perspective.Is your problem a simulation problem based in chemistry?Or are you looking for quantum algorithms that enhance machine learn

265、ing?Maybe your primary concern is security in the quantum era?Prospective ecosystems are most effective when theyre already working on use cases relevant to your specific issue and include experts who understand your industry problems.Who are the worlds leading organizations and thinkers related to

266、quantum computing and your business issues?Because of the rapid pace of quantum computing innovation,you need partners who are at the forefront of scientific breakthroughs and their application to business problem-solving(see Figure 12).The difference between partnering with Tier 1 and Tier 2 player

267、s could mean the difference between being part of a“winner-takes-all”competitive scenario and being left behind.“Atthispoint,partneringforquantumskillsmakes muchmoresensethanacquiringthem.”Doug Kushnerick formerly with Technology Scouting and Ventures ExxonMobil Research 43 What is the optimal mix o

268、f consultants versus in-house staff?The right quantum computing ecosystem for you contains the right mix of ecosystem participants concentrating on your business problems alongside your industry and technical professionals,including:A quantum computing technology provider that offers easy access to

269、cloud-based quantum computing systems,an open-source programming framework,educational resources such as tutorials and research papers,quantum computing researchers,quantum computing consultants,technical support,and a collaborative community actively engaged in addressing quantum computing challeng

270、es.Quantum computing developers who understand quantum computing application development using open-source code and access to application development libraries,and have access to real quantum computing hardware.Academic partners and universities conducting relevant quantum computing research and dev

271、eloping budding quantum computing experts that you may ultimately hire onto your team.“Immanagingintellectualcapitalthats notevenformedyet.”Irfan Siddiqi Director of the Quantum Systems Accelerator Department of Energy(DoE)National Quantum Information Science(QIS)Research CenterFigure 12 Who are you

272、r superpowers?Assembling the right mix of ecosystem constituentsTechnology infrastructure providerOrganizations with similar challengesResearch labsStart-ups with supportingtechnologiesUniversitiesApplication developersYour organization44Quantum stack componentsSkills requiredTechnical servicesAppli

273、cationsUse case-specific librariesPerformance librariesCompilers,optimizers,simulatorsAssembly language and driversQuantum computing hardwareGeneral technology expertiseApplication architecture and developmentIndustry/domain knowledgeQuantum computing system algorithmsAdvanced math,quantum computing

274、 system expertiseQuantum physics,quantum computing system expertiseQuantum physics,chemistry,engineeringIf developing at least some in-house talent is a priority,a first step can involve seeking out community platforms.These“hands-on”ecosystems give developers access to tools to create and run quant

275、um computing algorithms on actual quantum computing hardware or simulators.For example,the IBM quantum computing community offers the open-source Qiskit framework.Such platforms are open to both students a critical constituency and organizational IT teams.A less“deep tech”option is to form small tea

276、ms to start identifying problems whether industry-changing breakthroughs or workflow acceleratorsin which quantum computing can play a role.Team members dont need Ph.D.-level quantum computing expertise,but they do need enough quantum computing literacy to assess quantum computing capabilities again

277、st industry and organizational needs (see Figure 13).When youre hiring for quantum computing,whats the optimal talent?Researchers from the Rochester Institute of Technology and the University of Colorado Boulder provided some interesting insights.They interviewed managers at more than 20 quantum tec

278、h companies based in the US,and the responses yielded two common paths.Figure 13 Stacked for success What components and skills can help you achieve quantum computing literacy?45First,the organizations said they were seeking candidates who were quantum“aware.”This encompassed a broad understanding o

279、f quantum computing concepts and the ability to discuss and apply those concepts what we call quantum literacy.The prospects didnt necessarily need an in-depth knowl-edge of equations and theory.35 Our IBM experts point out that this quantum literacy can often be a re-skill,a case of learning enough

280、 quantum computing to augment domain expertise and figure out how to integrate quantum computing in that area.36 Second,candidates who had hands-on lab skills were favored over those with none.37 One IBM industry expert estimates only about 3,000 skilled quantum workers exist today,and that base nee

281、ds to be doubled or quadrupled.38 As recently as October 2018,TheNewYorkTimes reported that fewer than 1,000 people globally were doing leading research in the quantum computing field.39 Acquiring this level of deeply technical skill can be challenging,especially when competing against universities,

282、start-ups,and vendors.This“talent drought”can boost the appeal of up-and-running ecosystems with their own talented quantum teams.“ThesemiconductorindustryandquantumcomputingintheUSface challengesacquiringSTEMgraduates firstfromhavingtocompete forengineerswithmorewell-knownsoftwareandsocialmedia com

283、panies,andsecondfromhavingashrinkingpoolof STEM graduatescomparedtoothercountriesoverthepast30years.”Ajit Manocha President and CEO SEMI“IfanythingslowsdowntheQuantumDecade,itsunlikelytobe thetechnology.Itwillbethetalent.Theresaccesstocapital,alotofinterest,andwewillhavethetechnology.Itsthepeople th

284、atweneed.”Prineha Narang Assistant Professor of Computational Materials Science Harvard University46Questions to ask Question One How can dissolving seemingly intractable barriers reshape your industry?What types of quantum computing experiments could you be conducting now,in pursuit of those goals?

285、Question Two How can quantum computing partner with classical computing within a particular workflow?Which workflow subsections are best suited for quantum computing?How does this assessment alter perspectives and possibilities related to your processes?Question Three Intelligent workflows that use

286、technologies such as automation,blockchain,AI,5G,cloud,and edge create an ideal environment for quantum computing to plug into.How can establishing this foundation benefit your business now?Question Four What steps can you take to foster quantum computing literacy within your organization?What ecosy

287、stems can you partner with for “deep tech”quantum computing expertise?47InsightsA process,not a destinationWhen quantum demonstrates its superiority over traditional computing for a specific problem,thats Quantum Advantage.Its gradual,coming in waves that both progress and pause,but ultimately move

288、the technology forward.Three classes of problems at which quantum excelsQuantum computing is especially astute at simulations of nature;algebraic problems,including machine learning,differential equations,and dealing with matrices;and quantum search-and-graph problems.The quantum computing“prioritiz

289、ation matrix”Evaluating the potential business impact of quantum computing applications can be challenging.We show you how to evaluate which potential quantum computing applications are better positioned to deliver optimum business benefits.48 49Chapter ThreeQuantum Advantage and the quest for busin

290、ess valueQuantum Advantage as introduced on page 7 occurs when a computing task of interest to business or science can be performed more efficiently,more cost effectively,or with better quality using quantum computers.This is the point where quantum computers plus classical systems can do significan

291、tly better than classical systems alone.But Quantum Advantage is not a dramatic,all-at-once event.It will be more ambiguous,coming in waves that both progress and pause,but ultimately move the technology toward achieving concrete business value.Each use case has its own unique timeline for Quantum A

292、dvantage.The particular quantum computing system or ecosystem partner youre engaging can influence that timeline and advantage as well.Fortunately,Quantum Advantage can benefit from a domino effect in which successes in one use case can cascade to others.“Exponentialaccelerationcanoccurafteraninitia

293、lusecase.Whatwelearnfromthoseearlyusecasescanbeappliedtoothers.”Sabrina Maniscalco Professor of Quantum Information and Logic,University of Helsinki CEO,Algorithmiq Oy 50As we evaluate the time it will take to attain Quantum Advantage,its helpful to understand a bit about the current systems and whe

294、re we are heading.Todays qubits are subject to errors from hardware limitations and“noise”from the surrounding environment.If superconducting qubits which live at a temperature close to absolute zero arent protected from noise by keeping them in a vacuum,vibrations or stray photons hitting the devic

295、e could ruin a computation.The same goes for heat and ambient effects.Remember,quantum computing is built on the physics of quantum mechanics,and that is the model for interactions at the atomic,electron,and photon level.Coupling to the environment could disturb what we are doing in our system.More

296、precisely,qubits in quantum hardware are called physicalqubits.Currently,quantum computing use cases are enabled by the types of algorithms available to us,but we are limited to implementing them using noisy physical qubits.While we expect it may be possible to reach the earliest Quantum Advantage e

297、xamples with physical qubits,we will need to move to logical qubits to achieve quantum computings full value.Logical qubits are created by combining software with hundreds of physical qubits to implement error correction.With this type of qubit,errors coming from noise affecting the underlying hardw

298、are can be both detected and corrected.Implementing quantum error correction is a crucial goal for this decade.Indeed,it is widely accepted that fault-tolerant quantum processors need to be built before any quantum algorithms with proven super-polynomial speed-up can be implemented.However,recent ad

299、vances in techniques we refer to broadly as quantum error mitigation can create a smoother,continuous path toward this goal.Along this path,advances in qubit coherence,gate fidelities,and speed translate to measurable advan-tage in computation,akin to the steady progress historically observed with c

300、lassical computers.In Figure 14,we chart quantum runtime as a function of quantum circuit complexity for classical computers,quantum computers with error correction,and quantum computers with error mitigation.Quantum error mitigation can fill the gap before quantum error correction achieves practica

301、l runtime reductions.Figure 14 On the road to fault tolerance Quantum error mitigation as a stopgap strategy RuntimeQuantum error mitigationQuantum error correctionClassical computerQuantum circuit complexity 51In recent years,two general-purpose error mitigation methodszero noise extrapolation(ZNE)

302、and probabilistic error cancellation(PEC)have allowed us to evaluate accurate expectation values from noisy,shallow-depth quantum circuits,even before the introduction of fault tolerance.The ZNEmethod cancels subsequent orders of the noise affecting the expectation value of a noisy quantum circuit b

303、y extrapolating measurement outcomes at different noise strength.40 PEC can already enable noise-free estimators of quantum circuits on noisy quantum computers,as evidenced by theoretical and experimental advances.41 These advances then translate into larger circuit volumes that can be run on the no

304、isy hardware while still producing superior expectation values.The good news:these ideas go beyond mere theory.Weve already started to demonstrate the efficacy of error mitigation on large processors.42 As we progress through the Quantum Decade,one important question needs hashing out:As the results

305、 from quantum computing truly transcend those of classical,how do you evaluate them?Theyre well past validation from traditional techniques and traditional computers.When conducting theoretical research,the issue might not be as consequential.But in scenarios that impact real-world health and safety

306、,its a daunting question.Out of necessity,we need to veer away from classical validation it simply wont keep up to using multiple“flavors”of quantum computing.This could mean benchmarking across different modes of quantum computers themselves,or even different ecosystems.Validation and quan-tificati

307、on of results could ultimately elevate some systems over others in terms of reliability and accuracy.Its yet another factor that can influence waves of Quantum Advantage.“Inorderforquantumcomputingtobeanadvantage,youhave tohaveconfidenceinandtrusttheresults.Lookatitthisway.Ifaquantumcomputerdesigned

308、aparachuteforyou,would youbewillingtowearitandjumpoutofaplane?”“Forexample,wouldthreedifferentquantumfacilitiescome upwiththesameanswers,withsimilarerrorratesandanswer sets?Itsthroughconsensusthatyougetconfidence.”Peter Tsahalis CIO of Strategic Services and Advanced Technology Wells Fargo 52Wave 1L

309、ow tideWave 2High tideWave 3TsunamiFigure 15 The three waves From low tide to tsunami Low-key murmurs in some research cornersBreakthroughs are more structured and commonplace Breakthroughs grow more complex and revolutionaryAt IBM,we see those waves aligning into three phases(see Figure 15).The fir

310、st wave is low tide and low key.There may be murmurs in some industry and academic research corners,but overall results are not heavily publicized.Those with the foresight to experiment with the technology may see value,followed by ways to improve,then applications for other areas and new algorithms

311、.The second wave is high tide.Breakthroughs are more structured and commonplace.Conversations about quantum computing are gaining currency.More organizations are aligning with ecosystems,experimenting with cloud-based quantum computing services environments,and test-driving quantum computing with in

312、creasing success.The third wave?Here comes the tsunami.Much can change,and industries are transformed.Quantum machine learning comes to the forefront,and breakthroughs grow more complex and revolutionary.This is where the Quantum Decade reaches a crescendo,with a strong surge into error-corrected qu

313、antum computations.Ultimately,the third wave confers Quantum Advantage to organizations,end users,and society overall.How can airplanes be manufactured with less corrosive metals and fly more safely with less maintenance?How can the medical industry better personalize diagnoses,treatments,and pharma

314、-ceuticals(see case study,“IBM and Cleveland Clinic”on page 22)?53To put it in perspective,some experts believe that quantum computing is where AI was in 2010.By virtue of the exponential nature of the technology,quantum computing has the potential to take off even faster.“In10years,wewillhaveachiev

315、edwhattook40to50yearsinclassical computing.Inthe60s,70s,and80s,computersciencewasniche,almostadarkart.Butby2030,wewillhavefiguredouthowbusinesses canusequantumcomputing withnoin-depthknowledgeofhowit actuallyworks.”Ilyas Khan Founder and CEO Cambridge Quantum Computing However,it will take investmen

316、ts in carefully considered use cases to reveal quantum computing“killer apps”by industry domain.To get a grasp on evaluating quantum computings commercial potential for your industry,well jump into how quantum computing can help specific classes of problems,and from there,a methodical approach to pr

317、ioritizing use cases.Weve also included an extensive set of Industry Guides outlining industry-aligned use cases and scenarios on page 73 detailed guides to what quantum computing could mean for you.Ultimately,Quantum Advantage comes down to results.“Attheendoftheday,executivesneedcapabilities.Theyc

318、areaboutthe businessanswer.Theyreagnosticastohowthatgetsdone,andthatwont change.Youdontgotobusinessleaderswithquantumsolutionsper se.Yougotothemwithwaystobetteroptimizetheirbusiness.”Christopher Savoie Founder and CEO Zapata Computing54Quantum computing at its best:Three classes of problems43What co

319、uld the commercialization of quantum computing mean for your organization?What types of problems are the best candidates for Quantum Advantage?In the near-to-medium term,quantum computing could confer business benefits in three areas:simulation,search,and algebraic problems(see Figure 16).Quantum si

320、mulation of natural processes Because quantum mechanics describes how nature works at a fundamental level,quantum computing is well-suited to model processes and systems that occur in nature(see case study,“IBM Researchers:Exploring the molecular simulation of water”).Figure 16 Where the rubber meet

321、s the road Anticipated uses of quantum computing Simulation Chemistry Pharmaceuticals Materials Electric batteriesAlgebraic problems Adaptive vendor/customer interactions Decision support TrainingSearch Sampling Travel and transportation Logistics/supply chain Network infrastructure Air traffic cont

322、rol Work schedulingSimulationAlgebraic problemsSearchIBM researchers Exploring the molecular simulation of water44The future is not quantum computing alone.Rather,its the convergence of quantum computing,classical computing,and AI that has the power to transform.Combining classical and quantum compu

323、tations in nontrivial ways,trading off one for the other,can enhance the capabilities of any one on its own and increase what is possible with the resources available.The methods described here harnessed classical and quantum resources to capture quantum correlations and double the size of the syste

324、m that can be simulated on quantum hardware.Exploiting the symmetries of the problem,IBM researchers developed a technique to split the quantum circuits into smaller ones,capturing the most challenging aspects of the computation and requiring only half as many qubits as the full circuit.This strateg

325、y allowed them to not only reduce the number of qubits needed but also to make the quantum circuits required shallower.Each smaller circuit was run separately on a quantum computer and the outputs combined using classical post-processing techniques.The researchers tested this method in a molecular s

326、imulation of water.In this case,the parts of the problems difficult to simulate could be reduced to 10 orbitals,or wave functions.These orbitals could be represented on five qubits of an IBM Quantum processor to compute the ground state energy of the molecule in the most accurate simulation to date.

327、Methods like this have the potential to scale by doing twice as much with the resources available,trading off quantum and classical computations to expand the computational reach of the quantum computing systems.This method can prove productive in materials discovery workflows.55Algebraic problems A

328、lgebraic problems include linear systems of equations,differential equations needed for industry problems,problems relevant for machine learning,and operations on matrices.Mathematical problems like some methods of machine learning and options pricing in finance involve the mapping and evaluation of

329、 functions over a multidimensional parameter space.The state of qubits in a quantum computer is itself a complex high-dimensional space capable of exploring aspects of data inaccessible to classical computers.In fact,a symbiosis between AI and quantum computing is beginning to spawn a virtuous cycle

330、 of advancement in both fields.For example,quantum algorithms can enhance machine learning in the area of data clustering.46 But machine learning can be used to better understand quantum systems.47 Other businesses that could benefit in this area include consumer products and retail companies tailor

331、ing marketing offers(see case study,“IBM Quantum and University of California,Berkeley researchers”on page 58).Search and graph problems The art of solving optimization problems involves searching for the “best”or optimal solution in a situation where many possible answers exist.Take the example of

332、building a package delivery schedule.Mathematically,more than 3.6 million possible combinations exist for scheduling 10 deliveries in adjacent time slots.45 But which schedule represents the optimal solution,given variables such as timing requirements of the recipients,potential delays,and the shelf

333、 life of transported goods?Even when applying approximation techniques,the number of possibilities is still far too large for a classical computer to explore(see case study,“ExxonMobil”).As a result,classical computers today take extensive shortcuts to solve optimization problems of significant size.Unfortunately,their solutions are often suboptimal.Businesses that could benefit from quantum searc