1、2022 Black&Veatch Asia Electric Report BLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|ABOUT THIS REPORT|2About This Reportwelcome to our Black&Veatch 2022 Asia Electric Report.As we continue to face the COVID-19 pandemic and emerge from major political moments such as COP26,Asias electricity providers conti

2、nue to grapple with implementing an affordable and reliable energy transition.This report illustrates the many hurdles we face while expressing an optimistic view of where the industry is heading.Our report features data from two surveys one,an in-depth survey of 57 senior electric industry professi

3、onals;and the other,a poll of 33 commercial and industrial electricity customers who identify as readers of our media partner,Eco-Business.We are grateful for the insights provided by respondents who represent views from throughout East Asia,South Asia and Southeast Asia We believe in sharing these

4、insights with the market as we see a need for more integrated thinking and solutions across generation,transmission and distribution even as large commercial and industrial electricity consumers play a growing role in influencing our industrys future.We welcome your questions and comments regarding

5、this report and Black&Veatch services.You can reach us at MediaI.BLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|AT A GLANCE|3Pressure from governments,shareholders,and commercial and industrial customers are 3 of the top 4 drivers of investment in renewable energy35%of the industry believe renewable integra

6、tion is the biggest challenge they face1.Integration Is the Challenge Decarbonization calls for increased systems-thinking paired with a focus on generation alongside transmission and distribution,with consideration of increasing variable demand3.Take the long-viewAs technologies like coal decline a

7、nd others like battery storage and hydrogen emerge,the industry alongside governments and large customers needs to plan further ahead to create a financially and environmentally sustainable pathway to decarbonization2.Its a Bigger World Future operations and investments are being increasingly influe

8、nced by a broader set of stakeholders customers and shareholders are gaining a stronger voice alongside governments and financiersMore than 50%of industry respondents either do not have effective decarbonization roadmaps in place beyond 5 years or have none at allAt a GlanceBLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA EL

9、ECTRIC REPORT|CONTENTS|4C O N T E N T SC O N T E N T S2At a Glance 05 I Integration is Critical to Asias Decarbonization 12 I Expanding Trans-mission Systems Key to Asias Renewable Integration 16 I Stakehold-ers Lead Push for Low-Carbon Invest-ments 23 I The Road to Net Zero for Intensive Energy Use

10、rsBLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|INTEGRATION IS CRITICAL TO ASIAS DECARBONIZATION|5Integration is Critical to Asias Decarbonization by Narsingh Chaudhary,Executive Vice President&Managing Director Power AsiaThe focus on decarbonization is greater than ever,bringing new challenges for governm

11、ents,regulators and developers across Asia.Fortunately,this attention is accompanied by a push to identify and execute the most efficient strategies for meeting new and increasingly aggressive decarbonization commitments.However,there is no simple answer to solve this transition,particularly in Asia

12、,a region still very much dependent on coal to meet its base load energy demand.Having a clear sense of how existing and emerging technologies could work together while embracing a 360-degree view of the energy mix and necessary grid infrastructure assets will be critical in achieving net-zero strat

13、egies and will underpin the power markets efforts to decouple fossil fuels from the provision of affordable,reliable and resilient power supply.BLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|INTEGRATION IS CRITICAL TO ASIAS DECARBONIZATION|6A growing awareness of the importance of integration is the most pr

14、ominent finding to emerge from the Black&Veatch 2022 Asia Electric Report.Specifically,integrating intermittent renewable energy into traditional grid structures was identified as the single biggest challenge the industry facing,according to respondents(Figure 1).Growing acceptance of renewable tech

15、nology and cost parity have been achieved.Now,integration is the challenge.Paving the Way for More Distributed and Connected Regional GridsAs the world adjusts to the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic,systems integration surpasses last years top concern around investment uncertainties.It also re

16、flects an acceptance of the electric grids shifting complexities:the structure will no longer center around a few large baseload facilities,but instead will embrace a more distributed,digitalized array of generation sources equipped to accommodate the electrification of everything.What will not chan

17、ge is the goal of any electricity provider reliable and resilient grid operations and service.The survey shows this core business is threatened most by government policies that continue to evolve and,in the wake of Novembers COP26,have pushed decarbonization goals sharply over the past 12 months.Fig

18、ure 1From your perspective,what are the most challenging issues facing the electric industry in your region today?(Select the top three)Source:Black&VeatchRenewable integration35.1%Economic regulation(i.e.,rates)24.6%Uncertainty of investment24.6%Market uncertainty due to the pandemic(i.e.COVID-19)2

19、4.6%Energy storage21.1%Planning/forecasting uncertainty21.1%Environmental regulations17.5%Aging infrastructure14.0%Distributed energy resources(DERs)integration14.0%Distribution system upgrades and modernization14.0%Access to capital investment14.0%Market structure12.3%Lack of skilled work force8.8%

20、BLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|INTEGRATION IS CRITICAL TO ASIAS DECARBONIZATION|7These policy challenges are compounded by an underinvestment in transmission systems and insufficient energy storage capacity,systems that help mitigating renewable intermittency while traditional conventional g

21、eneration capacity is reduced(Figure 2).These are tough realities that the industry faces.Alongside critical grid management and technical issues explored later in Expanding Transmission Systems Key to Asias Renewable Integration,where the sun shines and the wind blows are also obvious integration f

22、actors.The location of new solar and wind facilities often is distant from existing baseload plants,transmission lines and,indeed,from where major demand centers exist.Most of the renewable resources in India,for example,are in western and southern states,while other locations like Singapore will ha

23、ve to rely on importing renewable and clean energy supply from overseas.To that point,Singapore announced in October 2021 that it plans to import 30 percent of its electricity from low-carbon sources beyond its borders,and progress has been made in recent months on the Laos-Thailand-Malaysia-Singapo

24、re Power Integration Project.Similarly,Laos and Vietnam recently reached a trading agreement for the purchasing of wind energy as part of progress on the integration of the Greater Mekong Subregion,a program involving five Southeast Asian nations and China.Planning for and Integrating Emerging Techn

25、ologiesSuch practicalities have coincided with increased interest in and debate about the use of hydrogen as an energy carrier.Hydrogen can be used as an exportable,seasonal energy storage method to respond to the variability of wind and solar,and as a fuel for existing gas turbine facilities.While

26、the production of hydrogen via electrolysis scales and corresponding Figure 2What are the biggest threats to reliable grid operations and performance in your region?(Select up to three)Source:Black&Veatch43.9%Government policies36.8%Underinvestment in more reliable transmission networks31.6%Not enou

27、gh energy storage capacity26.3%Aging infrastructure 24.6%Investment in network capacity not keeping pace with demand growth19.3%Introduction of too much variable renewable energy15.8%Cybersecurity threats14.0%Introduction of other distributed energy resources14.0%Climate threats12.3%Lack of adequate

28、ly trained manpower and appropriate tools BLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|INTEGRATION IS CRITICAL TO ASIAS DECARBONIZATION|8Beyond 10 yearsHydrogen73.0%Retiring traditional fossil-fueled generation sites 51.4%Battery energy storage43.2%Combined cycle27.0%Wind27.0%Natural gas24.3%Making tradit

29、ional fossil-fueled generation more efficient18.9%Power purchase agreements(PPAs)18.9%Solar18.9%cost barriers decrease adoption can be encouraged through gateway approaches that combine hydrogen production from fossil fuels with carbon capture.In parallel with incentivized investment in green hydrog

30、en production,these approaches together can bring scale to a hydrogen economy and help lower the cost per kilogram over time of green hydrogen.The industry is clearly optimistic,with three out of four respondents believing that,beyond 10 years,hydrogen will help meet emissions reduction and clean en

31、ergy goals.This is significantly more than any other technology over the mid-term(Figure 3).Figure 3Which of the following methods do you expect will be included specifically to help meet your carbon/emissions reduction and/or clean energy goals?(Select all that apply)Source:Black&VeatchBLACK&VEATCH

32、 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|INTEGRATION IS CRITICAL TO ASIAS DECARBONIZATION|9Figure 4When do you think hydrogen generation will take off in your region of business as a clean and affordable alternative to existing gas generation?(Select one)Source:Black&Veatch9.6%By 202546.2%By 203026.9%By 20405.8%B

33、y 20503.8%Beyond 2050 7.7%Hydrogen generation does not have a feasible futureFurthermore,only 8 percent of respondents believe there is no future for hydrogen as a feasible,clean and affordable alternative to natural gas(Figure 4).Despite these and other emerging challenges that lie ahead,industry r

34、espondents are overwhelmingly positive,recognizing the importance of the regions energy transition.A mere 2 percent of respondents disagree that investments are being channeled to clean energy(Figure 5).Another critical shift observed in this years findings is the change in investment influences.Whi

35、le government policy continues to be critical for electric utilities,were seeing a rise in shareholders and large customers influence on investment,as explored in more Stakeholders Leading Push for Low-Carbon Investments.For the first time,we also have included the energy and sustainability perspect

36、ives of large commercial and industrial customers as featured in The Road to Net Zero for Intensive Energy Users by our media partner,Eco-Business.The Energy Transition Calls for Integrated Decarbonization PlanningCompared with last year,while remaining robust and significant,data points to the pote

37、ntial long-term softening of natural gas as part of generation portfolio development.Forty-six percent of industry respondents see a role for gas beyond 2035,which falls from about two out of three respondents in last years survey(Figure 6).Figure 5To what extent do you agree or disagree with the fo

38、llowing statement:We are directing our capital towards clean energy.Source:Black&Veatch50.0%Strongly Agree32.0%Somewhat agree2.0%Somewhat disagree16.0%Neither agree nor disagreeBLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|INTEGRATION IS CRITICAL TO ASIAS DECARBONIZATION|10Notably,views appear to have shif

39、ted to investment in existing gas-fired facilities,signaling interest in energy transition solutions that include upgrading to more efficient and advanced turbines,integrating battery energy storage systems,and planning for the eventual use of hydrogen in lieu of natural gas.The energy transition wi

40、ll require the development of prioritized decarbonization roadmaps,essentially the detailed,yet flexible plans that electricity providers will use to maximize returns on their asset investments and realize their sustainability goals.What is concerning is that one in three do not have decarbonization

41、 roadmaps in place today,highlighting a significant financial risk.Such technology and investment blueprints help electricity providers plan out capital investment over 10 years or longer horizons.Only 15 percent of respondents claim to have such robust investment roadmaps in place,indicating there

42、is much room to prioritize and optimize ongoing clean energy investments in the years ahead(Figure 7).Figure 6Is there a future for fossil fuel generation(utility-scale coal and gas generation)in your region(s)of operation beyond 2035?(Select the scenario that best applies)Source:Black&Veatch2020202

43、1Yes,both coal and gas will remain important components of the grid beyond 2035 18.2%15.4%Yes,investment in gas will remain long term,however,coal will be gradually phased out with little new development 48.5%30.8%We will see limited investment in coal and gas investment will focus mostly on upgradi

44、ng existing facilities only12.1%25.0%No,we will see limited investment in both gas and coal9.1%3.8%No,we will see limited investment in gas and we will also start seeing increased decommissioning of coal facilities12.1%23.1%No,we will see increased decommissioning of both gas and coal facilities0.0%

45、1.9%BLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|INTEGRATION IS CRITICAL TO ASIAS DECARBONIZATION|11Figure 7Do you have a decarbonization roadmap in place?If so,what timeframe(s)for investment decisions are included?Source:Black&Veatch35.4%No,we do not have a decarbonization roadmap33.3%Yes,for the next 1

46、0 years18.8%Yes,for the next five years14.6%Yes,extends beyond 10 years ConclusionThis combination of challenges facing the power industry highlights the importance of integration on a number of levels from planning to technologies,and across industry,government and customers.To help realize an affo

47、rdable and successful energy transition,the industry must align with all stakeholders and embrace holistic planning and design of generation,transmission and distribution systems.BLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|EXPANDING TRANSMISSION SYSTEMS KEY TO ASIAS RENEWABLE INTEGRATION|12Expanding Tran

48、smission Systems Key to Asias Renewable IntegrationBy Jerin Raj,Director,Asia Power Transmission&DistributionR obust transmission and distribution networks are a critical part of Asias transition to a renewables-based,decentralized grid.Rather than simply the deployment of renewable generation,the i

49、ntegration of these assets is the single biggest concern facing the industry across Asia,according to this years Black&Veatch 2022 Asia Electric Report.The rapid growth of solar power in Vietnam between 2019 and 2020,for example,holds important lessons for the rest of Asia.Installed solar capacity l

50、eapt from hundreds of megawatts to 16.8 gigawatts,representing approximately a quarter of the nations grid capacity.However,without supportive enhancements to the grid and transmission network,Vietnam Electricity(EVN)reportedly restricted power by BLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|EXPANDING TRA

51、NSMISSION SYSTEMS KEY TO ASIAS RENEWABLE INTEGRATION|13Figure 8What are the biggest threats to reliable grid operations and performance in your region?(Select up to three)Source:Black&Veatch43.9%Government policies36.8%Underinvestment in more reliable transmission networks31.6%Not enough energy stor

52、age capacity26.3%Aging infrastructure24.6%Investment in network capacity not keeping pace with demand growth19.3%Introduction of too much variable renewable energy15.8%Cybersecurity threats14.0%Introduction of other distributed energy resources 14.0%Climate threats12.3%Lack of adequately trained man

53、power and appropriate toolsa total of 365 million kilowatt hours after grids in the central provinces of Ninh Thuan and Binh Thuan were overloaded in 2020 with further curtailments occurring in 20211.With wind and solar resources often located far from existing transmission lines,alongside other fac

54、tors such as the expansion of distributed energy resources(DERs)and increasing bi-directional flows,Asias transmission and grid systems need more investment to manage a successful energy transition.Renewable Integration A PriorityIn the eyes of our 2022 survey respondents,underinvestment in transmis

55、sion is one of the top three threats to reliable grid operations and performance(Figure 8).This is joined by insufficient energy storage capacity,which can play a critical role in stabilizing a grid with intermittent renewable energy generation;and government policies,an answer which could be attrib

56、uted to the considerable policy debates around decarbonization,which occurred in the lead up to COP 26,coinciding with the timing of the survey.In addition,one in four respondents admit they were not confident in the performance and resilience of their transmission and distribution systems.(Figure 9

57、)Expanding and investing in higher quality transmission and distribution systems will be required to improve the efficiency,resiliency and reliability of supply and balance the variability of renewable sources.Reliable grids that can support the growth of decentralized power will help to optimize ge

58、neration and enhance grid stability.Key transmission expansion strategies will include deploying interconnection lines,interconnection substations,and switching facilities in areas with high potential for renewable generation to allow seamless connection to the grid.1Electricity oversupply forces au

59、thorities to cut solar output,Vietnam Express International,February 24th,2021BLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|EXPANDING TRANSMISSION SYSTEMS KEY TO ASIAS RENEWABLE INTEGRATION|14Figure 9Given increasing levels of renewables integration,rising populations and demands and threats of the impact

60、of climate change,how confident are you in the performance and resilience of your transmission and distribution systems?(Select one)Source:Black&Veatch42.9%Somewhat confident9.6%Very confident19.2%Neutral23.1%Somewhat unconfident1.9%Very unconfident When appropriately deployed,these facilities will

61、help to manage some of the challenges with renewable generation related to lower inertia and lack of dynamic reactive power capability while also facilitating integration with the collector substations that accompany each large-scale renewable development.Upgrading Transmission Presents Challenges E

62、xpanding transmission networks,however,is complex.Our 2022 survey respondents identified land acquisition and right-of-way(ROW)access as the biggest challenge to improving transmission(Figure 10).While a typical solar farm may take six to nine months to develop,high-voltage transmission lines often

63、take years to deploy and can be severely delayed by land issues.Technologies such as composite core conductors or advanced tower designs can help mitigate and address potential land issues.An example of an advanced tower design technology includes Breakthrough Overhead Line Design(BOLD),which can ma

64、ximize power transfer on existing ROW by replacing old transmission lines with smaller-footprint,higher-capacity BOLD lines.BOLD technology is ideal for long distance and intercountry connections where high-voltage AC interconnections are viable.Noteworthy also from the findings is that poor underst

65、anding of transmissions integral and rising role in balancing the electric system comes in second ahead of policy,permitting and financing concerns.There is a clear need to increase awareness among government and other public stakeholders around the role of transmission in improving the effectivenes

66、s of renewable integration and achieving a successful energy transition.Where are Transmission Investments Going?Figure 10What is the biggest challenge facing transmission improvements and development today in your region?(Select one)Source:Black&Veatch37.3%Land acquisition and right-of-way access25

67、.5%Poor understanding of its integral and rising role in the electric system19.6%Government policy support9.8%Permitting processes7.8%Access to investment capitalBLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|EXPANDING TRANSMISSION SYSTEMS KEY TO ASIAS RENEWABLE INTEGRATION|15Regional electric industry lead

68、ers shared that over the next five years,their top investment focus will be in advanced system control devices that improve grid stability and operations such as Flexible Alternating Current Transmission Systems(FACTS).FACTS enable better control of power flow from congested parts of the grid to les

69、s-congested portions.FACTS devices such as static compensators(STATCOMs)are also critical to furnish the dynamic reactive power needs with integration of large blocks of renewable injections.This is especially true with the onshore interconnect facilities associated with offshore wind projects.Load

70、control devices that better balance generation and revamping existing substations were other high priority investment areas identified by Asian electricity leaders(Figure 11).Next StepsAs Asia,like many other regions of the world,repowers its power industry,better planned and designed transmission s

71、ystems are key to the decarbonization journey.Addressing voltage and frequency variability and grid code requirements effectively across the grid will reduce system losses,conserve energy and manage peak demand.Operational complexities of grids are shifting from large power plants near the point of

72、power consumption to more distributed and intermittent renewable plants and DERs.These dynamics call for Asias electricity industry to re-evaluate transmission and distribution systems and conduct more advanced and interconnected planning and design across these systems.Partnering with industry lead

73、ers experienced with every aspect in the lifecycle of projects from early financing through to commercial operation will be key to expanding Asias transmission networks for renewable integration success.Figure 11When looking to improve transmission systems in the region,what are the top three priori

74、ty investment areas over the next five years?(Select up to three)Source:Black&Veatch51.0%Advanced system control devices(FACTS,SVC,Sync Condensers)to improve grid38.8%Load control devices to better balance generation28.6%Revamp existing substations(expanding,retrofitting,revamping existing stations)

75、28.6%New transmission line technologies(higher ampacity conductors,multi-circuit towers,low footprint structures,BOLD design)26.5%Revamp existing transmission lines(reconductoring,revamping existing lines)26.5%New high-voltage transmission lines22.4%New high-voltage substations(hybrid or GIS)6.1%New

76、 high-voltage substations(AIS)6.1%Underground transmission lines(including transferring existing lines to underground)BLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|STAKEHOLDERS LEADING PUSH FOR LOW CARBON INVESTMENTS|16Stakeholders Leading Push for Low-Carbon Investmentsby Harry Harji,Associate Vice Presid

77、ent for Black&Veatchs management consulting business in AsiaW hen it comes to financing Asias electricity generation and transmission infrastructure,sentiment is broadly positive.Given the challenges facing the power sector as Asia transitions to lower and,eventually,zero-carbon energy and electrici

78、ty this is welcome news that should engender confidence in the ability to deliver decarbonization.Although respondents cited uncertainty of investment as the second most challenging issue facing the regions electricity industry,access to capital did not register as a major concern among the most per

79、plexing issues.This suggests that although the nature of investments may require greater certainty,the availability of funds is not a major stumbling block.Another cause for overall optimism is reduced anxiety around investment.In 2020,37 percent of respondents cited investment uncertainty as among

80、their most challenging issues,compared to 24 percent in 2021(Figure 12).Figure 12From your perspective,what are the most challenging issues facing the electric industry in your region today?(Select the top three)Source:Black&Veatch20202021Uncertainty of investment37.1%24.6%Access to capital investme

81、nt14.3%14.0%BLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|STAKEHOLDERS LEADING PUSH FOR LOW CARBON INVESTMENTS|17 Sentiment around access to capital remained virtually unchanged over the same period,indicating welcome stability during a turbulent 12 months.With the case for decarbonization proven,a further

82、 cause for optimism is that the vast majority of respondents,80 percent,believe capital is being directed towards clean,renewable energy(Figure 13).Levelized Cost of Energy Isnt the Only Game in TownIncreased government influence/pressure is now the biggest driver for investments in renewables,follo

83、wed closely by increased shareholder pressure and sustainability goals.Although these were both among the top drivers in 2020,what has changed is the role of lower levelized cost of energy(LCoE),which in 2020 was seen as the biggest factor behind renewables investment,by a significant 61 percent of

84、respondents.In 2021,this fell to 40 percent,with lower LCoE being eclipsed by government and shareholder pressure.So,overall,stakeholders expectations generally have overtaken acceptance that the technology is more cost effective as the most prominent driver of renewables investments.This sentiment

85、is echoed in a significant drop,25 percent during the past year,in the level of respondents citing improved competitiveness and efficiencies of new technologies as factors driving renewable energy investments.The motive force behind renewables investments is switching from economics to the demands o

86、f governments and investors although the two remain linked inextricably(Figure 14).Figure 13To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement:We are directing our capital towards clean energy.Source:Black&Veatch50.0%Strongly Agree32.0%Somewhat agree2.0%Somewhat disagree16.0%Neithe

87、r agree nor disagreeBattery storage is making it easier to manage and reduce lossesIncreased demand from residential customersIncreased demand from commercial and industrial clientsFewer options to finance traditional solutions/easier to finance renewablesAttractive government incentives and/or poli

88、ciesLower development risks and risks of delays compared to traditional solutionsImproved competitiveness and efficiencies from new technologiesConvenience and lower risk of using PPAs to source new renewables projectsLower levelized cost of energyIncreased shareholder pressure and drive for sustain

89、ability goalsIncreased pressure/influence from governmentsFigure 14What factors are driving renewable energy investments in your region?(Select all that apply)Source:Black&Veatch6%Increase in 2021 22%Decrease over responses from 20222020 38.7%2021 44.6%2020 42.9%2021 51.6%2020 61.3%2021 39.3%2020 33

90、.9%2021 12.9%2020 32.1%2021 38.7%2020 28.6%2021 35.5%2020 48.4%2021 23.2%2020 16.1%2021 12.9%2020 14.3%2021 n/a2020 8.9%2021 6.5%2020 8.9%2021 19.4%BLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|STAKEHOLDERS LEADING PUSH FOR LOW CARBON INVESTMENTS|18BLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|STAKEHOLDERS LEADIN

91、G PUSH FOR LOW CARBON INVESTMENTS|19There is also a shift in the nature of the funding.Analysis by SparkSpread indicates renewable projects in Asia are relying less on private equity.Renewable energy equity deals dropped by about 30 percent in the first two quarters of 2021.Against a backdrop of inc

92、reasing overall project financing,this suggests that instead of relying on partnerships with private equity firms and infrastructure funds,renewables owners and developers are funding more projects themselves,using their own equity or debt along with bank financing.Wheres The Money Going?During the

93、next five years,respondents anticipate solar power will attract the lions share of funding,with investments growing probably significantly from current levels.Hand-in-glove with the growth of solar infrastructure is predicted growth,again likely to be significant,in energy storage.Wrapped up in this

94、 is the increased investment forecast in microgrids/distributed energy resources(DERs).It is almost certain that there is a significant overlap here with solar-powered DER projects incorporating battery storage.Figure 15For each of the following categories,how do you expect new generation capacity i

95、nvestments to change over the next five years in your region?(Select one for each row)Source:Black&VeatchMuch more investment than todaySomewhat more investment than todayEnergy storage48.1%37.0%Solar(ground or roof)58.5%24.5%Microgrids and other DER26.4%50.9%Solar(floating)31.4%39.2%Hydrogen34.0%35

96、.8%Wind(near/offshore)34.0%26.4%Wind(onshore)24.5%34.0%Gas-fired/LNG to Power with CCUS9.6%40.4%Gas-fired/LNG to power13.2%30.2%Biomass7.7%34.6%BLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|STAKEHOLDERS LEADING PUSH FOR LOW CARBON INVESTMENTS|20Respondents foresee a relatively small de-emphasis in wind inv

97、estments,while hydrogen remains high in terms of expectation for increased investment(Figure 15).The big loser is coal.In 2020,18 percent of respondents anticipated an increased level of coal investment.By 2021,this had fallen to just 4 percent,while 59 percent said they felt coal investments during

98、 the next five years will be much less compared to current levels(Figure 16a-b).Emblematic of this change and the trend for investors driving decarbonization is an initiative coordinated by the Asia Investor Group on Climate Change.A group of 13 institutional investors including the asset management

99、 arms of BlackRock,JP Morgan,Fidelity,BNP Paribas,and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group announced plans to engage with five Asian coal-burning utilities to urge greenhouse gas emissions reductions and climate-risk accountability.Gas:Short-Term Confidence,Medium-Term UncertaintyThe picture for gas inve

100、stments is more nuanced.Investment during the coming five years is expected to be robust for both gas-fired/liquefied natural gas(LNG)-to-power projects with and without carbon capture utilisation and storage;only about 20 percent of respondents envisage investment dipping below current levels with

101、the majority anticipating the same or increased levels of investment(Figure 17).Driving gas-plant prospects across Southeast Asia is the desire to reduce reliance on coal while meeting growing power demand;something intermittent renewables alone cannot achieve.Analysis by Bloomberg New Energy Financ

102、e(BNEF)suggests government plans across the region call for 37 gigawatts(GW)of new gas-fired capacity during the next decade.As the level of renewables grows generators will need smaller,fast-reacting and Somewhat less investment than todayMuch less investment than todayCoal-fired with CCUS25.0%30.8

103、%Coal-fired25.9%59.3%Figure 16aFor each of the following categories,how do you expect new generation capacity investments to change over the next five years in your region?(Select one for each row)Source:Black&Veatch2020:More investment than today2021:More investment than today Coal-fired with CCUSN

104、/A21.2%Coal-fired17.6%3.7%Figure 16bFor each of the following categories,how do you expect new generation capacity investments to change over the next five years in your region?(Select one for each row)Source:Black&VeatchBLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|STAKEHOLDERS LEADING PUSH FOR LOW CARBON

105、 INVESTMENTS|21flexible gas generation.Consequently,gas spend is likely to focus more on simple rather than combined cycle plants and aero-derivative or F-,as opposed to H-,class turbines.BNEF also forecasts that Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Thailand,Vietnam and Taiwan are expected to grow LNG imp

106、ort capacity in the first half of the 2020s,to help fuel more than 25 GW of proposed LNG-to-power projects.That said,there is less optimism about the role of gas-fired generation beyond 2035.In 2021 nearly one in two respondents see gas role falling beyond 2035,compared to about two out of three who

107、 responded in 2020.And it is anticipated that the gas investments which go ahead will become increasingly focused on upgrading existing facilities(Figure 18).Given respondents belief in hydrogens potential to take off as an affordable alternative to existing gas generation,46 percent anticipate this

108、 will happen by 2030(see Integration is the Key to Asias Decarbonization),it seems likely that full or partial fuel conversion to hydrogen will figure significantly in the upgrades.Regardless of the source,getting the electricity to the customer remains a challenge.Somewhat less investment than toda

109、yMuch less investment than todayGas-fired/LNG to Power with CCUS15.4%9.6%Gas-fired/LNG to power17.0%3.8%Figure 17For each of the following categories,how do you expect new generation capacity investments to change over the next five years in your region?(Select one for each row)Source:Black&VeatchFi

110、gure 18Is there a future for fossil fuel generation(utility-scale coal and gas generation)in your region(s)of operation beyond 2035?(Select the scenario that best applies.)Source:Black&Veatch20202021Yes,both coal and gas will remain important components of the grid beyond 203518.2%15.4%Yes,investmen

111、t in gas will remain long term however coal will be gradually phased out with little new development 48.5%30.8%We will see limited investment in coal and gas investment will focus mostly on upgrading existing facilities only12.1%25.0%No,we will see limited investment in both gas and coal9.1%3.8%No,w

112、e will see limited investment in gas and we will also start seeing increased decommissioning of coal facilities12.1%23.1%No,we will see increased decommissioning of both gas and coal facilities0.0%1.9%BLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|STAKEHOLDERS LEADING PUSH FOR LOW CARBON INVESTMENTS|22Under

113、investment in more reliable transmission networks,in both 2020 and 2021,is seen as the second biggest challenge to reliable grid performance(Figure 19).Investment priorities to address this center upon grid management equipment,rather than transmission lines,with more than half of respondents citing

114、 the need for advanced system control devices.This was followed,in terms of investment priorities,by load control devices to better balance generation;and upgrading existing substations.Digitization of grid management equipment is seen as a necessity(Figure 20).So decarbonization and digitization ar

115、e where respondents believe investments will focus in the short to medium term.The organizations best positioned for success in this context will be those developing their initial strategic decarbonization roadmaps,the quality of which will significantly impact the return on their investments and ab

116、ility to thrive in a decarbonized future.Figure 19What are the biggest threats to reliable grid operations and performance in your region?(Select up to three)Source:Black&Veatch20202021Government incentives and/or policies16.1%43.9%Underinvestment in more reliable transmission networks38.7%36.8%Not

117、enough energy storage capacity29.0%31.6%Aging infrastructure25.8%26.3%Investment in network capacity not keeping pace with demand growth41.9%24.6%Figure 20When looking to improve transmission systems in the region,what are the top three priority investment areas over the next five years?(Select up t

118、o three)Source:Black&Veatch51.0%Advanced system control devices(FACTS,SVC,Sync Condensers)to improve grid38.8%Load control devices to better balance generation28.6%Revamp existing substations(expanding,retrofitting,revamping existing stations)28.6%New transmission line technologies(higher ampacity c

119、onductors,multi-circuit towers,low footprint structures,BOLD design)26.5%Revamp existing transmission lines(reconductoring,revamping existing lines)BLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|THE ROAD TO NET-ZERO FOR INTENSIVE ENERGY USERS|23The Road to Net Zero for Intensive Energy Users By Gillian Park

120、er,assistant editor,Eco-BusinessThis year,the demand for coal set a new record,pushing prices to record-highs.While many industrialized countries have been shutting down coal plants for years to reduce carbon emissions,in Asia which houses half of global manufacturing coal use is growing rather than

121、 shrinking.This is especially so as rapidly developing countries in the region still look to fossil fuels to meet a booming demand for power,even as investment in coal is expected to wane,according to this years Asia Electric Report(Figure 21).BLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|THE ROAD TO NET-Z

122、ERO FOR INTENSIVE ENERGY USERS|24Taken together with an increasing appetite and pressure to lower industrial carbon emissions,this points to significant change on the horizon for hard-to-abate industries in Asia that rely on huge volumes of energy.Today,most of their power needs are met through foss

123、il fuels,but this remains their biggest hurdle to achieve net-zero goals.Industry leaders,therefore,say that they must work closer with the electric power industry,either collaborating and influencing the development of more renewable and sustainable energy,or directly financing and building the sol

124、ution.Renewables and Market ForcesIn a survey conducted by Eco-Business and Black&Veatch,half of the respondents said that they will target Scope-2 indirect emissions from the energy they purchase in their carbon-reduction strategies.The data center industry in particular is looking for ways to proc

125、ure renewable energy to reduce their operational carbon emissions.Reducing Scope-2 emissions,industry leaders say,has to be a key focus of future energy roadmaps.If a center can secure 100-percent locally generated renewable power,it would reduce its carbon footprint by 90 percent.Data centers guzzl

126、e huge amounts of energy to keep their operations going around-the-clock.Somewhat less investment than today:Much less investment than today:Coal-fired25.9%59.3%Figure 21How do you expect new coal-fired generation capacity investments to change over the next five years in your region?Source:Black&Ve

127、atchWhile technology to bring about efficiencies in operating data centers to help cut carbon emissions is improving,changing where these centers get their energy from is the most impactful,says Darren Webb,co-founder and chief executive of Evolution Data Centres.“Other factors are important.But in

128、terms of materiality,the Evolution view is that they dont compare at all with having a renewable power story,”says Webb.Nevertheless,efforts by intensive energy users to decarbonize will be curtailed if electricity transmission grids are not modernized and instead remain powered by coal and natural

129、gas power plants.“You have to be transparent and honest.You have to be able to show auditability and traceability,to be able to say,we will show you exactly where the power was generated,we will show you exactly how it got to us,we have taken into account that the power was transmitted through a coa

130、l-based grid,”Webb said.Webb is banking on geothermal power generated in Indonesia and the Philippines to help sustain his energy-hungry data centers.Straddling the seismically active Pacific Ring of Fire,Indonesia is home to 40 percent of the worlds geothermal resources,with 300 sites identified by

131、 the government that could potentially generate 24 gigawatts of energy,although development cost challenges exist compared to other technologies.Cementing the relationship with power generators and exploring ways to reduce or share in development costs is one approach for intensive users like data c

132、enters to access geothermal energy sources.“You will see data centers and power generators coming much closer together.You will see some data center operators becoming power generators.You will see power generators becoming data center operators,because there is such a natural alignment between the

133、generation of renewable power and that off-taker who can take it at scale,on a continuous 24-hour basis,”Webb said.BLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|THE ROAD TO NET-ZERO FOR INTENSIVE ENERGY USERS|25Webb believes that sourcing for renewable power independently,while using an existing grid struc

134、ture for distribution,will trigger change in how utilities are managed and force transmission companies to cut their dependency on fossil fuels.“When someone says I am taking 30,50 or 100 megawatts and I am only using you for transmission,not for generation,this is a clear message from the market to

135、 transmission companies:you need to move from coal-based into renewables where you can,”Webb concluded.Betting on Technological Solutions New technologies that have yet to be commercialized will play an increasingly important role in meeting long-term ambitions for net-zero emissions and decarboniza

136、tion.Over one-third of survey respondents said that aggressive greenhouse gas reduction goals and energy goals will be met by advances in technologies(Figure 22).They believe that these technologies can pave the way for improving energy efficiency and enable a switch to lower-carbon energy carriers.

137、Green hydrogen and the deployment of carbon capture,utilization and storage could be transformative.Cement is one sector that is pinning its hopes on technology to slash carbon emissions.The majority of the carbon emitted by the cement industry comes from burning coal and other fossil fuels in the p

138、roduction process.Among heavy industries,cement accounts for the largest share of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions.Its production is set to increase as populations balloon and infrastructure needs increase,particularly in emerging economies.According to Ian Riley,chief executive of th

139、e World Cement Association,grid energy supply,which represents less than 10 percent of the sectors total energy supply,is not the primary focus for its decarbonization plans.However,some plants have moved to wind energy,Riley said.“A few cement companies are using directly contracted or their own re

140、newables for power,but most use grid energy,”Riley said.Most companies today take the view that the grid will be decarbonized anyway and that electricity represents a small portion of emissions so Figure 22In terms of your GHG reduction and energy goals,what best characterizes your organizations abi

141、lity to meet those goals?Source:Black&Veatch43.8%We set conservative goals with full knowledge of how we will achieve them34.4%We set somewhat aggressive goals and believe technology advances and cost reductions will help us meet them within our timeframe21.9%We set aggressive goals and do not yet k

142、now exactly how we will meet themBLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|THE ROAD TO NET-ZERO FOR INTENSIVE ENERGY USERS|26this is not going to be a priority unless there is potential to cut power costs,which is starting to be the case.Companies also see electrifying their current vehicle fleets as p

143、art of their sustainability strategies.More than 60 percent of survey respondents said they either are already doing so or have such plans in place(Figure 23).Electric vehicle(EV)sales are set to nearly double the number purchased last year,according to BloombergNEF.China is spearheading this trend,

144、with government subsidies and the mass development of infrastructure underpinning growth.Indonesian GoTo Group,which includes ride-hailing start up Gojek,announced in April that it plans to make every car and motorcycle on its platform an EV by 2030 through partnerships with manufacturers and favora

145、ble leasing arrangements.The Jakarta-based firm works with the Indonesian government to support the development of the countrys EV industry,explains Tanah Sullivan,Group Head of Sustainability for GoTo.The company regularly Yes,we are currently electrifying our fleet25.0%Yes,we are planning to explo

146、re electrification within the next three years35.7%Yes,we will explore electrification option over the long-term28.6%No,but we are exploring the conversion of our fleet to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles3.6%No,we are not exploring electrification or hydrogen fuel cell vehicle conversion7.1%Figure 23Is t

147、he electrification of a vehicle fleet a part of your sustainability strategy?(Select one)Source:Black&Veatchengages in dialogue sessions with partners from across the public and private sector,as well as Government ministries responsible for developing Indonesias roadmap to a low carbon economy,says

148、 Sullivan.The company joins multilateral focus-group discussions held by the government and the state-owned enterprises ministry which is tasked with crafting a net-zero roadmap.Harnessing renewable energy to generate electricity for EVs will be critical to curbing CO2 emissions.Governments and stat

149、e-owned enterprises are not as agile as some private companies.This is and will continue to be a barrier to progress.With intensive energy users looking to technology to help reach their targets,they should be incorporating research and development into their roadmaps.GoTo,for instance,is screening

150、and testing some technologies that could help drive efficiencies and spur the uptake of renewables at an industry level.It plans to share its findings on the green technologies that it is testing.These include solar panels and their capability to charge EV batteries.Options that are viable in the lo

151、cal context can hopefully be considered by the government.“Whether providers want to scale,for example their solar solution,or sell the technology to private or public sector firms,both require a multi-stakeholder approach so we can accelerate our countrys energy transition journey,”Sullivan says.BL

152、ACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|THE ROAD TO NET-ZERO FOR INTENSIVE ENERGY USERS|27Sullivan also noted that while the Indonesian government is working on a plan to transition away from fossil fuels,firms should try to align their roadmaps with government targets and programmes.“We are trying to

153、align with the Science Based Targets initiative and the Carbon Disclosure Project(CDP)because we want to best assess what these are going to look like,”Sullivan said.“In our context,its relatively new.We are also operating in an emerging market.”“It is still a balancing act between economic progress

154、 and the right for the country to have access to electricity that is affordable.”Peer Pressure,Consumer Demand and DisclosurePressure from consumers and investors is driving companies to find ways to slash emissions and this is expected to exert more Figure 24What factors are driving renewable energ

155、y investments in your region?(Select all that apply)Source:Black&VeatchIncreased pressure/influence from governments44.6%Increased shareholder pressure and drive for sustainability goals42.9%Lower levelized cost of energy39.3%Increased demand from commercial and industrial customers33.9%Attractive g

156、overnment incentives and/or policies32.1%Fewer options to finance traditional solutions/easier to finance renewables28.6%Improved competitiveness and efficiencies from new technologies23.2%Lower development risks and risks of delays compared to traditional solutions16.1%Convenience and lower risk of

157、 using PPAs to source new renewables projects14.3%Increased demand from residential customers8.9%Battery storage is making it easier to manage and reduce losses8.9%pressure on energy providers and transmission networks(Figure 24).“It is going to become a mandate from our customers,”Webb said.Cloud p

158、roviders in the United States such as Google,Microsoft and Amazon Web Services have set aggressive sustainability targets,creating a ripple effect further down the supply chain onto data centers like Webbs.“While theres an option for where you source your power today and how sustainable you can be a

159、s an operator,I feel that the option is going to disappear in less than two years time,”Webb says.For most intensive users,changes are being enacted in anticipation of tighter regulations on emissions in the future.Less nimble operations could be left with stranded assets that become obsolete amid c

160、hanging consumer demands.BLACK&VEATCH 2022 ASIA ELECTRIC REPORT|THE ROAD TO NET-ZERO FOR INTENSIVE ENERGY USERS|28Investors and asset managers also are looking for transparency and better disclosure about how large a companys carbon footprint really is.An increasing focus on declaring Scope-3 emissi

161、ons the indirect emissions that occur in a companys value chain is likely to see large energy consumers press providers to drive down their emissions.According to the survey,most Asian organizations are measuring direct emissions,with 80 percent of the respondents citing measurement of Scope 1 emiss

162、ions.About one in two organizations are measuring indirect emissions or emissions in their supply chains,represented by Scope-2(53 percent)and Scope-3 emission sources(50 percent)(Figure 25).Roadmap is KeyAlthough many organizations have made decarbonization pledges,they lack the strategic roadmap t

163、hat will guide them to the goal.The most important and productive first step that any organization can take is to create a decarbonization roadmap,Black&Veatch stresses.According to its 2021 Corporate Sustainability,Goal Setting and Measurement Report,more than 80 percent of companies surveyed with

164、revenues greater than US$250 million have set decarbonization goals,yet 25 percent have set goals at such a level that they are unsure how they will meet them.Over 40 percent of respondents to our survey said that they do not have a decarbonization roadmap,with about one third with a roadmap in plac

165、e for only the next five years(Figure 25).Generally,effective roadmaps should be plans that look beyond 10 years,Black&Veatch advices.This roadmap blind-spot is perhaps symptomatic of a region still figuring out how to wean itself off fossil fuels.For some companies operating in fossil-fuel dependen

166、t countries,the challenges seem insurmountable.Accept the uncertainty and be adaptable,Black&Veatch urges in its report.“This approach avoids analysis paralysis in the face of demanding decarbonization targets.”Figure 25What elements are being included in your carbon reduction,renewable or emissions

167、 goals?(Select all that apply)Source:Black&Veatch80.0%Scope 1:What your companys facilities,plants and vehicles directly emit 53.3%Scope 2:Indirect emissions from energy you purchase50.0%Scope 3:Indirect emissions from upstream and downstream activities related to goods and services consumed or prod

168、ucedFigure 26Do you have a decarbonization roadmap in place?If so,what timeframe(s)for investment decisions are included?Source:Black&Veatch41.9%No,we do not have a decarbonization roadmap35.5%Yes,we have a decarbonization roadmap for the next 5 years9.7%Yes,we have a decarbonization roadmap that ex

169、tends beyond 10 years16.1%Yes,we have a decarbonization roadmap for the next 10 yearsP +1 913 458 2000 E MediaI W Black&Veatch Corporation,2021.All Rights Reserved.The Black&Veatch name and logo are registered trademarks of Black&Veatch Holding Company.REV 2021-11LEGAL NOTICE Please be advised,this

170、report was compiled primarily based on information Black&Veatch received from third parties,and Black&Veatch was not requested to independently verify any of this information.Thus,Black&Veatchs reports accuracy solely depends upon the accuracy of the information provided to us and is subject to chan

171、ge at any time.As such,it is merely provided as an additional reference tool,in combination with other due diligence inquiries and resources of user.Black&Veatch assumes no legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy,completeness,or usefulness of any information,or process disclosed,nor does

172、Black&Veatch represent that its use would not infringe on any privately owned rights.This Survey may include facts,views,opinions and recommendations of individuals and organizations deemed of interest and assumes the reader is sophisticated in this industry.User waives any rights it might have in r

173、espect of this Survey under any doctrine of third-party beneficiary,including the Contracts(Rights of Third Parties)Act 1999.Use of this Survey is at users sole risk,and no reliance should be placed upon any other oral or written agreement,representation or warranty relating to the information herei

174、n.THIS REPORT IS PROVIDED ON AN“AS-IS”BASIS.BLACK&VEATCH DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND,EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED,INCLUDING,WITHOUT LIMITATION,ANY WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY,FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR NON-INFRINGEMENT.BLACK&VEATCH,NOR ITS PARENT COMPANY,MEMBERS,SUBSIDIARIES,AFFILIATES,SER

175、VICE PROVIDERS,LICENSORS,OFFICERS,DIRECTORS OR EMPLOYEES SHALL BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT,INDIRECT,INCIDENTAL,SPECIAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES ARISING OUT OF OR RELATING TO THIS REPORT OR RESULTING FROM THE USE OF THIS REPORT,INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO DAMAGES FOR LOSS OF PROFITS,USE,DATA OR OTHER I

176、NTANGIBLE DAMAGES,EVEN IF SUCH PARTY HAS BEEN ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.In addition,user should place no reliance on the summaries contained in the Surveys,which are not intended to be exhaustive of the material provisions of any document or circumstances.If any point is of particul

177、ar significance,reference should be made to the underlying documentation and not to this Survey.This Survey(and the content and information included therein)is copyrighted and is owned or licensed by Black&Veatch.Black&Veatch may restrict your access to this Survey,or any portion thereof,at any time

178、 without cause.User shall abide by all copyright notices,information,or restrictions contained in any content or information accessed through this Survey.User shall not reproduce,retransmit,disseminate,sell,distribute,perform,display,publish,broadcast,circulate,create new works from,or commercially exploit this Survey(including the content and information made available through this Survey),in whole or in part,in any manner,without the written consent of Black&Veatch,nor use the content or information made available through this Survey for any unlawful or unintended purpose.