1、November 2022Building a world-class Dutch start-up ecosystemby Tobias Henz,Laura Hofstee,Peter Jacobs,Mohcine Ouass,and Sven SmitA strategy to maintain the high entrepreneurial momentum and facilitate the ability for start-ups to scale can elevate the Netherlands to a global leader in the world of e

2、ntrepreneurship ecosystems.2Building a world-class Dutch start-up ecosystemContentsIntroduction and key messages 4Where the Dutch start-up ecosystem could be in 2030 7Entrepreneurship in the Netherlands today 9What entrepreneurship could deliver by 2030:Capturing the full potential 12Call to action:

3、Potential actions for ecosystem players 20Technical appendix 22Authors and contacts 233Building a world-class Dutch start-up ecosystemIntroduction and key messages1Erin Yurday,“Best countries in Europe for startups 2020,”NimbleFins,October 6,2020.2State of European tech 2021,Atomico,2021;Dealroom,20

4、21.3Based on McKinseys proprietary quantitative model;please refer to Appendix 1 for methodology.4“Securing Europes future beyond energy:Addressing its corporate and technology gap,”McKinsey,May 4,2022.The Dutch start-up ecosystem today The Dutch start-up ecosystem is essential for the Netherlands a

5、nd makes a significant contribution to the Dutch economy and society.By providing jobs and innovation,improving productivity,and paying taxes,Dutch start-ups and scale-ups can support societys ability to deliver high levels of education,healthcare,and social services.The Netherlands has emerged as o

6、ne of the key ecosystems for innovation and entrepreneurship in Europe and has proved itself to be highly competitive in the start-up space.For instance,with a thriving fintech sector,the Netherlands has demonstrated global success in a uniquely Dutch way(for example,through payments players like Ad

7、yen and Mollie,or fintech solutions such as BUX).The Netherlands ranks fourth in terms of start-up value creation in Europe,and among cities,Amsterdam is one of Europes fastest-growing start-up hubs.1 The Netherlands is also doing well in another key metric of start-up activity:the number of start-u

8、ps per capita.In this regard,the Netherlands ranks fifth in the European Union.2Just as the number and pace of start-ups in a country is important,so is the ability of those start-ups to grow.According to this metric,there is clear room for improvement as Dutch start-ups are less successful at scali

9、ng than peers and perform below the EU average in scaling to long-term,stable companies.3 Why we need to act now:The importance of scaling start-ups more successfully for the NetherlandsWhy is it so important that Dutch start-ups become more successful?It all comes down to the importance of a strong

10、 entrepreneurial sector.A robust start-up ecosystem that realizes its full potential is a significant contributor to the national economy,a pillar of a strong labor market,and a key asset in the countrys(and the regions)ability to compete in the global marketplace.We are currently facing the next wa

11、ve of global challenges,including food insecurity,energy resilience,climate change,and health access.The most effective solutions to these global challenges need time to mature,but the companies behind these solutions are likely to be founded in the next years,if they have not already been founded b

12、y today.Europe and the Netherlands in general have already lost out on creating global champions in some of the key sectors that will shape our future.Although Europe has many high-performing companies,European companies in the aggregate underperform relative to those in other major regions:they are

13、 growing more slowly,creating lower returns,and investing less in R&D than their US counterparts.This largely reflects the fact that Europe missed the boat on the last technology revolution,lagging behind on value and growth in information and communications technology(ICT)and on other disruptive in

14、novations.4 Building new world champions in the Netherlands will have a significant impact on the overall Dutch economy.With sufficient scale,the start-ups of today can become fundamental to an even more successful Dutch societycreating jobs and supporting the countrys ability to invest in education

15、,healthcare,and social-services delivery.Looking beyond the Netherlands borders,a strong Dutch start-up ecosystem can help build an even stronger European economy that is more globally competitive.In short,by facilitating the launches of innovative start-ups and creating the conditions that allow th

16、ose start-ups to grow,the Netherlands could help reposition itself globally in entrepreneurship and contribute even more to Dutch society.4Building a world-class Dutch start-up ecosystemA forward-looking perspective on the Dutch start-up ecosystem by 2030Against this backdrop and based on the findin

17、gs and insights from a new research effort,this report presents a forward-looking perspective of what a start-up ecosystem in the Netherlands could look like and how much it can contribute to the Dutch society and economy,as well as a potential blueprint for how to bring it about(see sidebar,“About

18、the research”).To this end,the next four chapters offer the following:a vision on what a start-up ecosystem that has become an integral part of the Netherlands growth engine in 2030 could look like,including its key pillars and principles for success an overview of entrepreneurship in the Netherland

19、s today,including where the Netherlands is performing well and where the country can improve an analysis of the conditions that could help enable the Dutch start-up ecosystem to become an economic engine of the Dutch economy with a potential value creation of 250 to 400 billion from start-ups founde

20、d until 2030 a framework for how players and stakeholders in the ecosystem could come together to realize the full potential of a Dutch start-up ecosystem,including the creation of that value and,in turn,a stronger labor marketAbout the researchInsights in this article were generated from two main s

21、ources:1.McKinsey proprietary quantitative model.All figures presented in this report are based on a quantitative model developed to predict the impact of the Dutch start-up ecosystem by 2030.2.Qualitative interviews.In addition to the quantitative model,more than 20 qualitative interviews were cond

22、ucted with key contributors to the Dutch start-up ecosystem in May 2022(such as founders,investors,and other stakeholders).For further details on the sources and methodologies,see appendixes 1 and 2.5Building a world-class Dutch start-up ecosystemFour core insights 5State of European tech 2021,Atomi

23、co,2021.This report contains four core insights about the potential of the Dutch start-up ecosystem by 2030 and how its players and stakeholders may navigate the road toward that scenario:1.The Dutch start-up ecosystem is competitive and internationally relevant,with a relatively high number of star

24、t-ups(564 start-ups per one million inhabitants were founded by 2021,on par with world leaders such as Sweden,the United Kingdom,and the United States5).However,the Netherlands has opportunities that could improve and accelerate scaling of its entrepreneurial activities in the near future.2.Quantita

25、tive modeling shows that start-ups founded between 2022 and 2030 could contribute an estimated 250 to 400 billion market capitalization30 to 45 percent of the market capitalization of todays AEXas well as potentially 165,000250,000 new jobs.Most of this additional value would come from improving the

26、 successful scaling of start-ups.3.To capture this value,the Netherlands must:Stabilize the current high entrepreneurial activity and selectively further increase the number of new start-ups by increasing overall entrepreneurial activity in specific demographic groups and recognizing current demogra

27、phic disparities in both founding and fundingfor example,a disproportionately small number of start-ups are founded by women and people with a nonacademic background,and there are fewer female funders and less funding for women-led start-upsand ensuring greater access and more opportunities for thes

28、e underrepresented demographic groups.Increasing entrepreneurship across a diverse group of potential founders could yield 35 to 45 percent more start-ups founded per annum by 2030 or 350 to 450 start-ups founded annually in 2030,on top of sustained start-up activity.Most importantly,scale start-ups

29、 more successfully by recognizing that the most improvement potential for the Dutch start-up ecosystem lies in more successful scaling of start-ups.Currently,the Netherlands loses 100 billion to 250 billion of value due to lower conversion rates throughout the entrepreneurial funnel compared to base

30、 case countries(such as Germany)and stretch case countries(such as the United States).To that end,the Netherlands must ensure that the conditions for scaling are met(for example,competing on a large enough scale,attracting top talent,and availability of capital also in later stages).4.The ecosystem

31、will benefit from an orchestrated effort from a wide range of stakeholdersfrom educators and legislators to venture capitalists and foundershelping to establish such a start-up landscape and to embed internationally scalable entrepreneurship in both the institutions and Dutch culture.Together,these

32、stakeholders could help address barriers that are hindering start-ups from scaling through incentives and guidance on how to enable success.This could help unlock new economic potentialboth in value and job creationin the Dutch start-up ecosystem by 2030 and beyond.6Building a world-class Dutch star

33、t-up ecosystemWhere the Dutch start-up ecosystem could be in 20306 New Palo Alto,Dealroom,June 14,2022.By 2030,the Dutch start-up ecosystem could be even more fundamental to the Dutch economy and Dutch society as a whole.While the Netherlands seeks to further grow and strengthen its start-up and ent

34、repreneurship ecosystem,its path must be tailored to its strengths and combined with best practices and learnings from other countries.Dutch entrepreneurship will build on the countrys unique character and proudly demonstrate its clear principles and characteristics.The most integrated start-up ecos

35、ystem in Europe The Netherlands start-up ecosystem of 2030 is highly integrated,yet it leverages unique strengths of different stakeholders;founders,investors,national and regional governments,angels,mentors,universities,and accelerators work together seamlessly in a mutually beneficial way,leveragi

36、ng the geographical proximity of regional hubs,the directness and straightforwardness of Dutch business,and the consensus-based decision-making approach.Furthermore,the Netherlands of 2030 has established a truly Dutch“hub and spoke”ecosystem that is deeply rooted in Europe with Amsterdam as the maj

37、or hub surrounded by several smaller decentralized ecosystems as spokes.These ecosystems are interconnected but still have their own unique strengths and capabilities,such as Eindhoven with a focus on deep tech,and Groningen with a focus on healthcare.In Europe,a“global city”has been built that can

38、attract global talent and create global businesses.Amsterdam is a key pinnacle in“the new Palo Alto,”Europes tech ecosystem of successful start-ups,venture capital,early adopters,and corporate innovation.Centered on Amsterdam,London,and Paris,the new Palo Alto also includes cities such as Brainport,

39、Bristol,Brussels,Cambridge,Manchester,and Oxford.6A global winner in energy,healthcare,fintech,and food and agriculture The Netherlands of 2030 is a global winner in the transition of the same industries the country traditionally led in:energy,healthcare,fintech,and food and agriculture.Deep tech wi

40、ll be a key enabler for these transitions,and the concentrated deep-tech knowledge in the Netherlands will create a flywheel effect for innovation in other industries.A world-class educational system driving spin-offs In 2030,Dutch universities have further built on their excellent technical capabil

41、ities and have curricula that are aligned with the needs of sectors the Netherlands wants to win in.Entrepreneurship at universities among both students and professors is actively promoted and supported by,for example,favorable technology transfer office(TTO)policies,including lower levels of equity

42、 shares demanded by Dutch TTOs in line with countries such as Sweden,the United Kingdom,and the United States.TTO policies are harmonized among Dutch universities.Regional hubs are without a doubt a strength and not a weakness.Co-founder of a Dutch unicorn company7Building a world-class Dutch start-

43、up ecosystemAn active and knowledgeable network of domestic and European investors The Dutch start-up ecosystem of 2030 has increased levels of domestic capital on par with European leaders such as Sweden.Capital is provided by a diverse set of stakeholders including,but not limited to,pension funds

44、,early-stage venture capital(VC),late-stage VC,and regional-development funds.The increased share of Dutch capital results in more economic benefits landing in the Netherlands.In addition to offering capital,Dutch investors also have deep knowledge of the sectors they invest in and internationally r

45、elevant networks.This allows them to help grow the companies they invest in and have a positive impact on scaling.A global mindsetDutch entrepreneurs in 2030 will be known for having bold growth ambitions,as well as being able to achieve these ambitions with the support of solid business plans.Dutch

46、 start-ups have the ambition to go global from the start:“go big or go home.”A society that celebrates scale-up success In 2030,Dutch society roots for start-ups to succeed on a global scale,and the founders leading these unicorns are visible role models by understanding their pivotal role in societ

47、y.In addition,mentoring young entrepreneurs by successful serial entrepreneurs is embedded in the Dutch start-up ecosystem.A magnet for start-up talent The Netherlands of 2030 is a magnet for start-up talent,leveraging the high level of education,including world-class technical universities;the high

48、est level of English proficiency in the world;an open,tolerant,and diverse society;a high quality of living with Amsterdam as the vibrant capital;and a world-class start-up ecosystem.With a vision of what the entrepreneurship landscape in the Netherlands could be like in 2030,the next chapter descri

49、bes the countrys starting point.If you ask an Israeli entrepreneur what their home market is,they answer that it is the USA.This should become the Dutch mindset.Founder8Building a world-class Dutch start-up ecosystemEntrepreneurship in the Netherlands today7“Best countries in Europe for startups 202

50、0,”October 6,2020.8State of European tech 2021,Atomico,2021;Dealroom,2021.9Netherlands startup employment 2021,Techleap.nl,CBRE,and Dealroom.co,October 2021.10Global Innovation Index,2021.11“The promise of empowering deep tech,”TechLeap,2021.12”Fear of failure rate,”World Bank,accessed May 2022.13“E

51、nglish Proficiency Index,”EF,2021.14Dealroom,201021.The Dutch start-up ecosystem is competitive and internationally relevantThe Netherlands has become one of the key ecosystems for entrepreneurship in Europe,ranking fourth in terms of start-up value creation in Europe,with Amsterdam a fast-growing h

52、ub.7 Furthermore,the Netherlands ranks fifth in the European Union on total number of start-ups per capita.8 Looking at the labor market,homegrown start-ups have created more than 130,000 local jobs across all provinces.9A focus on innovation has been key to Dutch start-up success.The Netherlands ra

53、nks sixth on the Global Innovation Index 2021.10 Behind this ranking is an entrepreneurship ecosystem that includes strong universities and a track record of technology leadership and innovation.The Netherlands has also demonstrated a clear commitment to research.The country is responsible for 2.1 p

54、ercent of the worlds research output with only 0.2 percent of the worlds population.11 Success stories of the Dutch start-up ecosystem include Adyen and Just Eat Takeaway,two out of the top ten most valuable tech start-ups founded between 2010 and 2020 in Europe,with Adyen being the second most valu

55、able in Europe after Spotify.The countrys start-up ecosystem is supported by a business environment and culture that facilitate its success.There is a culture of collaboration in the Netherlands that is nonhierarchical.The procedure to start a business is also rather straightforward,with the average

56、 business being able to effectively launch in about two days,where its counterpart in other European countries or the United States is likely to face a more arduous process of“red tape.”Starting a business and being self-employed are highly valued in the Netherlands,and a low fear of failure12 parti

57、ally explains why more start-ups take flight in the Netherlands compared with other countries.Finally,the Netherlands is home to a highly educated,multilingual workforce with the highest level of English proficiency in the world,excluding English-speaking countries.13 While the Netherlands receives

58、high marks when it comes to certain metrics of start-up creation(Exhibit 1),there is still room for improvement on the number of start-ups founded.Evidence of this is the fact that not all demographic groups are responsible for a share of start-ups founded on par with their share of the total popula

59、tion.For example,only about 15 percent of start-ups founded between 2010 and 2020 have at least one female founder,14 while women represent about 50 percent of the Dutch population.Other demographic groups that are currently underrepresented include founders with a non-Western migration background,a

60、s well as nonacademic founders.9Building a world-class Dutch start-up ecosystemExhibit 1Source:McKinsey analysisearly-stage most start-up indicators.1State of European tech 2021,Atomico,2021.2Dealroom,202021.3GEM 2020/2021 global report,Global Entrepreneurship Monitor,May 3,2021.4Erin Yurday,“Best c

61、ountries in Europe for startups 2020,”NimbleFins,October 6,2020,based on:Economic Health,Cost of doing business,Business climate,Labor force quality.5“PATENTSCOPE 2020,”WIPO,accessed May 2022.9865645225FranceUSAIsrael616UKSwedenEstoniaGermanyNetherlands2.52.01.91.81.51.00.80.2UKUSAGermany

62、IsraelFranceSwedenEstoniaNetherlands6.07.810.012.813.518.8UKFranceSwedenNetherlandsEstoniaGermanyPatent applications,Number per 1,000 inhabitants(2020)Total entrepreneurship activity(TEA),%of TEA among adults aged 1864(2021)Start-up climate,1=best,30=worst(2020)Start-ups per capita,average number pe

63、r 1 million inhabitants(2020 and 2021)4%6%12%Israel15%7%Germany8%UKSwedenNetherlandsUSAThe Dutch start-up ecosystem is performing in line with top performers on most early-stage start-up indicators.10Building a world-class Dutch start-up ecosystemThe Netherlands has opportunities to improve and sign

64、ificantly increase the likelihood of successful scaling of start-ups which will be crucial going forwardA key aspect of a thriving start-up ecosystem is the ability of start-ups to scale successfully because most of the economic value in the ecosystem is created by large,mature scale-ups that have b

65、oth higher economic value and provide more jobs than smaller start-ups.Furthermore,successful scale-ups can have a positive impact on the flywheel effect of the start-up ecosystem,where the success of a company or sector leads to the founding and eventual success of additional start-ups.When it come

66、s to scaling start-ups successfully,the Netherlands has significant room for improvement,as there are other leading countries that are more competitive across several key indicators of successful start-up scaling(Exhibit 2).Scaling is by the most critical lever for the Dutch start-up ecosystem,with

67、the potential to double or even triple the economic value created by start-ups.Comparing macroeconomic indicators for successful scaling of start-ups,the Netherlands scores below leading countries.Market capitalization of start-ups as a share of GDP is about 6 percent in 15Dealroom,2021.16Labor mark

68、et figures from Statistics Netherlands(CBS),based on vacancies versus number of people looking for a job or unemployed.17State of European tech 2021.the Netherlands,25 percent in Israel,20 percent in Estonia,17 percent in the United States,and 15 percent in Sweden.14 The average start-up valuation i

69、n the Netherlands is about 5.5 million,55 million in the United States,about 19 million in Israel,and 14 million in Sweden.Looking at funding available for start-ups to scale,the Netherlands has further potential for improvement.Although Dutch start-ups and scale-ups received around 2.3 billion of V

70、C funding in 2021,VC investment per capita in 2021 in the Netherlands was only 60 percent of the investment per capita in Sweden,and less than 50 percent the investment per capita in the United States.15 Furthermore,only 22 percent of total financing volume in the Netherlands is local funding,versus

71、 37 percent in Sweden and 78 percent in the United States.Additionally,the Dutch labor market is currently unprecedentedly tight,16 and many start-ups are struggling to find and retain the right talent.This is underlined by 56 percent of tech jobs in the Netherlands being hard to fill,compared to 40

72、 percent in the United States and 44 percent in Sweden.17Exhibit 2Within 20%of peer set averageWorse than 20%of peer set averagescaling criteria compared with peers.Scale-up indicators,2021Source:Dealroom;Index Ventures;State of European tech 21,Atomico,Dec 9,2021;McKinsey analysisMarket capitalizat

73、ion of start-ups as share of GDPIsraelEstoniaUSSwedenUKGermanyFranceNetherlandsAverage start-up valuationYearly venture capital fnancing volume per capitaTotal fnancing volume of domestic investorsShare of tech jobs that are hard to fllEmployee stock ownership plans scoreSectors and scopeVenture cap

74、italCapitalPeopleRegulationBetter than 20%of peer set averageNot availableThe Dutch start-up ecosystem is currently underperforming on most of the scaling criteria compared with peers.11Building a world-class Dutch start-up ecosystemWhat entrepreneurship could deliver by 2030:Capturing the full pote

75、ntial 18 State of European tech 2021;Dealroom,2021.For the start-up ecosystem to deliver next-level change,the already high dynamic of the start-up ecosystem needs to be accelerated.To unleash the potential of the Dutch start-up ecosystem,we look at two main thrusts:increasing the number of start-up

76、s founded until 2030 and making Dutch start-ups more successful at scaling(in other words,more likely to reach later stages of funding).Together,these thrusts boost the ecosystems ability to create significant value.Today,approximately 1,000 start-ups are launched in the Netherlands annually,ranking

77、 fifth in the European Union(after Estonia,Ireland,Luxembourg,and Denmark)and eighth across Europe.18 There is,however,still some potential for start-up acceleration by increasing start-up activity across demographic groups that are currently underrepresented,as well as boosting entrepreneurship in

78、general.Through applying different levers,the Netherlands could increase the number of start-ups founded each year by 35 to 45 percent,or 350 to 450 in absolute terms,on top of sustained activity of 1,000 start-ups founded annually.Its per-capita start-up number would grow from a total of about 620

79、to a total of about 900 start-ups per million residents by 2030.This increase would place the Netherlands in the top three of start-ups per capita in the European Union,behind Estonia and Ireland.When looking at scaling companies successfully,we analyzed the percentage of companies that reach differ

80、ent funding rounds across different countries to determine the chances of success at scaling a company.Currently,the Netherlands performs worse at scaling than global leading countries,European front-runners,and the European Union average,leaving significant room for improvement(Exhibit 3).The resul

81、ts of improved scaling are presented across two scenarios.The base case is the more conservative scenario,in which the Netherlands achieves a level of success similar to that of a European front-runner in scaling.The stretch casethe more ambitious scenariolooks at potential outcomes if the Netherlan

82、ds were to follow the trajectory of global leading countries,such as the United States.Value Exhibit 3Source:McKinsey analysisThe Dutch scale-up ecosystem is not achieving its potential,with conversion rates lagging behind peers in all funnel stages.Possible rounds of funding a start-up goes through

83、Average conversion ratesSeed rounds are among the first rounds of funding a company will receive.Round sizes range between$10,000 and$2 million,though larger seed rounds have become more common in recent years.Series A and series B rounds are funding rounds for earlier-stage companies and range,on a

84、verage,between$1 million and$30 million.Series C rounds and onward are for later-stage and more established companies.These rounds are usually$10 million,and often much larger.Total conversion rate from foundation to long-term stable.Totals are determined by multiplying values across stages for the

85、lower range and the upper range,and then multiplying each by 100.NetherlandsGermany(base case)US(stretch case)EUSeries DLong-term stableFoundationSeedSeries ASeries BSeries CFrom foundation to seedFrom series D to long-term stableTotalFrom series B to series C and DFrom seed to series A and B0.040.0

86、90.080.170.180.420.400.880.150.190.190.230.300.360.080.100.140.170.160.200.050.060.110.140.140.170.190.230.080.100.080.100.650.800.590.720.620.760.620.76The Dutch scale-up ecosystem is not achieving its potential,with conversion rates lagging behind peers in all funnel stages.12Building a world-clas

87、s Dutch start-up ecosystemcreation and job creation are expressed in ranges,where the low end of the range represents the base case,and the high end of the range represents the stretch case(Exhibit 4).If both thrusts are pursued,start-ups founded in the Netherlands between 2022 and 2030 could contri

88、bute an estimated 250 billion to 400 billion market capitalization,up from about 100 billion with current activity sustained.To put this sum in perspective,it is equivalent to 30 to 45 percent of the about 850 billion market capitalization of todays AEX.The value created can be deducted into four co

89、mponents:A.about 100 billion from current activity sustained between 2022 and 2030B.about 20 billion from increasing the number of start-ups founded between 2022 and 2030C.90 billion to 200 billion from better scaling of the current level of start-upsD.40 billion to 80 billion from better scaling of

90、 additional start-ups founded between 2022 and 2030(in other words,better conversion for additional start-ups)In addition,these start-ups could generate 165,000 to 250,000 new jobs.Given the already high start-up activity in the Netherlands,about 90 percent of potential value comes from making start

91、-ups more successful at scaling,and about 10 percent from the increased number of start-ups founded(Exhibit 4).Therefore,the greatest impact can be achieved by addressing the scaling challenge that the Dutch start-up ecosystem is currently facing.Exhibit 4Source:McKinsey analysisTwo main thrusts cou

92、ld have a signifcant impact on job and value creation.1Based on 20 billion value from increasing the number of start-ups founded as a percent of the full potential value of 225 billion.The full potential value of 225 billion is calculated as the total of A(20 billion),B(on average 145 billion),and A

93、 plus B(on average 60 billion).A.Current activity sustained,202230Increase the number of start-ups and scale them more successfully,202230B.Increase the number of start-upsC.Scale start-ups more successfully D.Combined efect from both levers (better conversion for additional start-ups)Value creation

94、,billions1002090200 250400 4080Jobs,thousands 90204535Opportunity to unlock 10%of the full potential value by 2030Opportunity to unlock 90%of the full potential value by 2030Two main thrusts could have a significant impact on job and value creation.13Building a world-class Dutch start-up

95、ecosystemExhibit 5Source:McKinsey analysisNote:Figures may not sum,because of rounding.Sources were used as input data analysis.new start-ups by 2030.1Annual report on European SMEs 2017/2018,European Commission,2018.2Dealroom 201920;KVK 2022.3Global startup ecosystem report 2017,Startup Genome,Apri

96、l 17,2017;CBS,2021.4Thinking bigger:How ambitious is the Dutch entrepreneur?,TechLeap,2021.5University of Twente,Delft University,Oxford University,Hebrew University of Jerusalem.Number of start-ups founded by 2030,annually543211,000Best-in-class universities535555585115170Female founders2Total65100

97、Founders aged 25544Nonacademic foundersFounders with non-Western migration background3Baseline 20215075Additional start-upsCurrent start-upactivity sustained+3545%3504501,000Five sources can contribute to a 35 to 45 percent increase in the number of new start-ups by 2030.Priming the start-up pipelin

98、e We have identified five levers that could contribute to an a 35 to 45 percent increase in the number of start-ups being founded by 2030,from about 1,000 in 2020 to 1,3501,450 in 2030(Exhibit 5).1.Increase the share of founders with a nonacademic background While there is potential for universities

99、 to be bigger launching pads for founders,investing in the potential of entrepreneurial-minded people without a university education is also important.In our research,we identified three potential actions that could help make a positive contribution to increasing the number of founders with nonacade

100、mic backgrounds:19Dealroom,201920.making entrepreneurship an essential part of secondary educationfor example,through dedicated courses and competitions promoting structured mentoring programs and networking events to enable access to knowledge,experience,and capital running a public campaign to hig

101、hlight success stories of founders who studied applied sciences or received vocational education Increasing the share of nonacademic founders by around 40 percent,from roughly 13 percent currently to 18 percent by 2030,could lead to an additional 35 to 55 start-ups in the Netherlands founded per ann

102、um by 2030.1914Building a world-class Dutch start-up ecosystem2.Increase the share of female foundersNotwithstanding previous efforts to promote women entrepreneurship,this report finds that women still experience significantly more hurdles in the Dutch culture to build and scale a business as compa

103、red with men.When it comes to actually starting a company,there is a significant gender gaponly about 15 percent percent of start-ups founded between 2010 and 2020 had at least one female founder.20 The positive news is that the gender gap has decreased over time,with about 25 percent of start-ups f

104、ounded since 2019 having at least one female founder.21Even as gains are made toward gender parity in founding,funding disparity is large and persistent.Only 5.7 percent of the total amount invested in the Dutch start-up ecosystem goes to start-ups with at least one female founder.All-female-founder

105、 startups get only 0.8 percent of total start-up investment.22Women report a higher fear of failure than men and are substantially less confident in their ability to start and run a business.Additionally,fast-growing fields of innovation and technology have a high male density,both in education and

106、start-ups.Moreover,a large portion of the business angels in Europe are men,and only 5.2 percent of women-led start-up teams have received 1 million in funding compared with 27.8 percent of those led by men.23Three potential actions could help make a positive contribution toward closing this gender

107、gap:promoting structured mentoring programs and networking events to help enable access to knowledge,experience,and capital increasing public awareness of gender bias in funding processes to encourage more inclusion20Dealroom,201020.21Dealroom,201921.22Gender diversity in the Netherlands:Startup&sca

108、leup report October 2019,TechLeap,2019.23Female founders monitor,Deutsche Startups,2020.24CBS,2022.25Global Startup Ecosystem Report 2017,Startup Genome,April 17,2017.promoting more diversity at the venture capital(VC)level to infuse greater diversity among founder sets(for example,Fundright,a group

109、 of Dutch VCs,aims to have a 35 percent female management team by 2023)This could lead to an additional 115 to 170 start-ups in the Netherlands founded per year by 2030,our analysis shows.3.Double the share of non-Western migrant founders Residents with non-Western immigrant backgrounds represent 14

110、.5 percent of the total Dutch population24 but only around 7 percent of start-up founders.25 Furthermore,the share of total businesses started per year by non-Western migrant founders increased from about 12 percent in 2010 to more than 20 percent in 2020,highlighting that the willingness to be an e

111、ntrepreneur among non-Western migrant founders is there and increasing.Four potential actions could help make a positive contribution toward increasing the number of start-ups founded by non-Western migrant founders:promoting structured mentoring programs and networking events to help enable access

112、to knowledge,experience,and capital increasing public awareness of background bias in funding processes promoting more diversity among VCs to infuse greater diversity in founder sets identifying talent pools by partnering with organizations with a track record of reaching migration background commun

113、itiesThis could lead to an additional 50 to 75 start-ups in the Netherlands founded per annum by 2030,our analysis shows.15Building a world-class Dutch start-up ecosystem4.Increase the share of experienced foundersLooking at famous tech pioneers could easily give the impression that founders need to

114、 be barely out of university to become successful.But research has shown that the average age of a successful start-up founder is 45.26 Today,early-stage entrepreneurial activity27 is highest in the age category of 18 to 24 and decreases with each successive age category.Sparking additional entrepre

115、neurial activity among people aged 25 to 54 could lead not only to additional start-ups founded,but also to more successful start-ups given the work experience that these individuals most likely will already have.We identified two potential actions that could have a positive contribution:creating de

116、dicated programs with the aim of increasing the share of entrepreneurs with professional experiencefor example,through collaboration between private employers and the public sector increasing public awareness of success stories of founders with diverse backgrounds and previous experienceThis could l

117、ead to an additional 55 to 85 start-ups in the Netherlands founded per annum by 2030,our analysis shows.5.Increase the number of spin-offs coming out of Dutch universities and research institutions to the level of global leaders Dutch universities are already home to the research and innovation that

118、 leads to 26Pierre Azoulay et al.,“Age and high-growth entrepreneurship,”National Bureau of Economic Research,April 2018.27Total early-stage entrepreneurial activity(TEA)rate is defined as the percentage of adults between 18 and 64 years of age who are either actively trying to start a new business(

119、nascent entrepreneurs),or who own and manage a business that is younger than 3.5 years(young-business entrepreneurs).innovative new businesses,yet universities in the Netherlands generate fewer business spin-offs than leading universities in the United Kingdom and the United States,such as Oxford an

120、d Stanford,respectively.One impediment,for instance,is that universities in the Netherlands often demand a 20 to 30 percent equity stake in start-ups founded at their institutionsa higher share than in other countries.In Sweden,for example,the maximum equity stake universities are allowed to take is

121、 10 percent,and in the United States,the university equity stake is often in the 3 to 5 percent,or even 0 percent.We identified three potential actions that could have a positive contribution on increasing the number of spin-offs:encouraging an entrepreneurial mindset among students and university s

122、taff supporting commercializing research and technologies by establishing reasonable term sheets(for example,lower equity stakes for universities as in the United States)establishing entrepreneurship centers that are close to and affiliated with universities but that operate independently(for exampl

123、e,UnternehmerTUM in Germany)Increasing the number of university spin-offs to the level of global leading universities by 2030 could lead to an additional 65 to 100 start-ups in the Netherlands founded per annum by 2030,our analysis shows.16Building a world-class Dutch start-up ecosystemSuccess facto

124、rs for scaling Start-ups need to scale to unlock the full value potential for the Dutch start-up ecosystem by 2030,as the majority of value is created by scale-ups in later stages of maturity(about 70 percent of the value creation happens after series C).To achieve more successful scaling of Dutch s

125、tart-ups,the conditions for scaling a company in the Netherlands will need to improve.We identified six prerequisites to help the Netherlands resolve its scaling challenges(Exhibit 6):Exhibit 6Source:McKinsey analysisto meet.4.Orchestrate a broad support ecosystem(eg venture capital VC)5.Enable avai

126、lability of capital6.Facilitate a supportive start-up environment1.Select the right sector2.Compete on a large enough scope3.Attract top talentEnsure a healthy VC seed-to-growth ratioEnable expertise across sectors and business modelsEnsure domestic and international fundingEnable availability of su

127、fcient domestic and foreign capital along the growth pathTap into a broad source of capital(eg,pension funds and insurers)Create a favorable ecosystem for start-ups to win the race for talent and raise additional funding through,eg,employee stock ownership plans and alternative-taxation or fscal pol

128、iciesFocus on specifc sectors that are globally relevant and build upon unique local strengths Allow for a scalable business model(eg,platform-based business)Capture a large enough addressable market that allows scalingAdopt global-frst mindset instead of a local-frst mindsetEnable easy access to do

129、mestic and international top talentFor a start-up to scale successfully,our analysis shows there are six criteria to meet.17Building a world-class Dutch start-up ecosystem28Dealroom,2021.29“Tension in the labor market,”CBS,2022.30State of European tech 2021,Atomico,2021.1.Focus on sectors that have

130、broad demand and are strong suits of the NetherlandsThe Netherlands could focus on investing in sectors that are attractive because of their global demand and that draw on the countrys unique expertise.Health and fintech are internationally attractive.In the United States,these sectors receive bigge

131、r shares of the total pool of start-up funding than any other sector(19 percent and 17 percent,respectively).These sectors also received the highest investment in the Netherlands(13 percent and 25 percent).In addition,a relatively high number of Dutch start-ups are already active in these sectors.28

132、 Other sectors that the Netherlands could focus on because of its know-how and high international relevance are the energy and food sectors.2.Adopt a global mindset from the outsetThe Dutch start-up market is largely domestic in focus,and scalability within the Netherlands is limited.Our interviews

133、with many Dutch founders suggest that their growth aspirations are focused within the countrys borders.By focusing on the global market from the outset,Dutch start-ups could open themselves up to a much larger market with immense growth potentialand turn their focus to internationally relevant issue

134、s.Therefore,a global mindset could help remove the scaling barrier imposed by the size of the Dutch domestic market.3.Attract top talentThe Netherlands is experiencing a historically tight labor market,with job vacancies surpassing the number of unemployed people in the labor force for the first tim

135、e in at least ten years.29 As a result,the Netherlands has a high share of hard-to-fill job openings in the tech sector,with 56 percent of the tech job openings in the Netherlands considered hard to fill,compared with 47 percent in Germany,40 percent in the United States,and 44 percent in Sweden.30

136、Being able to attract talent is important during the scaling phase because of the increasing complexity and amount of work.Therefore,having a sufficiently large talent pool,which could require favorable international mobility conditions,will enable start-ups to grow optimally by hiring the right peo

137、ple at the right time.Deep tech is the untapped gold mine the Netherlands is currently sitting on.Serial entrepreneurA global mindset is required to build scale-ups and unicorns.CEO of a Dutch unicorn18Building a world-class Dutch start-up ecosystemThe Netherlands ranks in the bottom quartile compar

138、ed with peers when looking at employee stock ownership plans.31 Capital availability can be limited for start-ups,particularly at early stages.To attract talent and compete with large corporations,start-ups often use alternative-compensation methods such as stock options(for example,employee stock o

139、wnership plans ESOPs).Therefore,the possibility to offer attractive non-cash options is an important lever for start-ups to attract talent to enable them to scale.4.Give start-ups sufficient guidance and funding,especially in late stages Financing volume per capita in the Netherlands is below that o

140、f peers such as Sweden and Israel.32 At the same time,the Netherlands historically tends to build companies with a profit-over-growth business model(“PE mindset”).Dutch VCs are less present in later rounds and hence execute fewer repeat investments.Additionally,the advisory role and guidance that VC

141、s provide to start-ups is a key catalyst in their success.A solid and engaged Dutch VC base could increase the scalability success rate of the start-up ecosystem.5.Provide additional investment from a variety of investorsThe availability of enough domestic and foreign capital is an important catalys

142、t for entrepreneurship activities such as attracting talent,conducting R&D and product development,and marketing.These activities are particularly important during the scaling phase of a start-up.Attracting more capital from institutional investors could increase the scalability success rate.Pension

143、 assets as a percentage of GDP 31Index Ventures(note:Netherlands compared with Estonia,France,Germany,Israel,Sweden,the United Kingdom,and the United States),2021.32Dealroom,2021.33“The untapped potential of Dutch venture capital,”TechLeap,2021.34Ibid.35Dealroom,2021.are more than 210 percent in the

144、 Netherlands.33 Dutch VCs raised 220 million from Dutch pension funds between 2016 and the first half of 2021,0.012 percent of total Dutch pension assets.34 Twenty-two percent of total financing volume in the Netherlands is domestic financing,while in Sweden,for example,the share is 37 percent.35 Ha

145、ving sufficient capital available will enable start-ups to scale optimally and keep value generation within Europe.6.Facilitate a supportive start-up environmentCreate a favorable ecosystem for start-ups to thrive by winning the race for talent and raising additional funding through,for example,the

146、30 percent ruling and alternative-taxation policies.In multiple other countries,including France,Spain,and Sweden,additional tax incentives exist around angel investment tax deduction.Although there is room to improve on each of these six priorities to enable successful scaling in the Netherlands,we

147、 recommend focusing on improving the start-up ecosystems ability to compete on a large enough scale,orchestrating a supportive VC environment,enabling the availability of capital,and facilitating a supportive start-up ecosystem.These levers have the largest impact potential and feasibility.In short,

148、if the Dutch start-up ecosystem were to unlock the five levers for increasing the number of start-ups founded,as well as ensuring that the six priorities for successfully scaling a start-up are addressed,start-ups founded in the Netherlands between 2022 and 2030 could potentially contribute an estim

149、ated 250 billion to 400 billion market capitalization.19Building a world-class Dutch start-up ecosystemCall to action:Potential actions for ecosystem players36CPP Investments,2022.37Thirtieth actuarial report on the Canada Pension Plan,Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions,December

150、31,2018.To capture the economic and societal impact described above,the Dutch start-up ecosystem would benefit from the orchestrated efforts of a wide range of stakeholders.Engaging everyone from educators and legislators to VCs,founders,and even CXOs can help embed internationally scalable entrepre

151、neurship in both the institutions and the culture of the Netherlands.Together,these stakeholders could help address barriers that hinder start-ups ability to scale through incentives and guidance on how to succeed.A more diverse ecosystemA more diverse set of stakeholders throughout the Dutch start-

152、up ecosystem could contribute to more start-ups being founded as well as scaling start-ups more successfully.A more diverse ecosystem includes an increased representation of,for example,founders with a migration background,women,and nonacademics.Ecosystem players that could benefit from more diversi

153、ty include founding teams,investors,start-up accelerators,and public stakeholders.Potential actions that could contribute to increasing diversity include:1.incorporating entrepreneurship courses in the curricula of high schools,vocational education,applied sciences,and universities to create awarene

154、ss and spark interest in entrepreneurship from a young age2.launching dedicated funds and grants focused on underrepresented groups3.partnering with organizations that have a track record in reaching underrepresented groupsAdditional late-stage domestic fundingAdditional late-stage funding in the Du

155、tch start-up ecosystem could contribute to more successful scaling of start-ups.Furthermore,a larger share of domestic funding could contribute to more returns flowing back into the Dutch economy,potentially creating a flywheel effect that further benefits the Dutch start-up ecosystem.Sources for th

156、is funding could include large institutional investors such as pension funds and insurers.An example of how Dutch pension funds could invest additional VC funding comes from the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board(“CPP Investments”),created by an Act of Parliament in 1997 to invest and grow the Can

157、ada Pension Plan Fund.36 CPP Investments started with a fund of funds approach to gain VC investment knowledge.After a few years,they evaluated their portfolio to determine their most successful partners and started co-investing directly in start-ups.In 2022,CPP Investments has more than CA$500 bill

158、ion(US$369 billion)in assets under management,and the latest triennial report by the chief actuary of Canada deemed the CPP sustainable over a 75-year projection period(sustainability defined as the confidence that the fund will continue to contribute to Canadians retirement incomes for future gener

159、ations,even in the face of economic fluctuations).37Potential actions that could contribute to unlocking additional late-stage funding include:1.aligning VC investment practices with market leaders in the United Kingdom and the United States with the aim of contributing,among other things,to faster

160、processes and investments in asset classes that typically take longer to commercialize(for example,deep tech)2.considering increasing the share of employees at VCs and investment companies with technical and specialist knowledge or with a start-up background to improve alignment of investment goals

161、between start-ups and investors3.increasing the availability of capitalfor example,by stimulating pension funds to invest in VCs as in the Canadian fund-of-funds approach20Building a world-class Dutch start-up ecosystemGlobal mindset from the outset A global mindset from the outset from founders and

162、 founding teams could contribute to the foundation of more scalable business models.Although mindset shifts are difficult to bring about through a set of actions,we provide some suggestions that could have a positive contribution to a more global mindset:1.Emphasize the importance of a global mindse

163、t in entrepreneurship courses at high schools,vocational schools,and universities by(for example)sharing success stories from Dutch founders who went global.Also,highlight the importance of a global mindset in this success.2.Put a scalable business model focused on a large market on the agenda of st

164、art-up accelerators.3.Encourage VCs to provide mentoring and an international network to start-ups that are scaling.Furthermore,accelerators could consider hosting events where role models and successful entrepreneurs are connected to new entrepreneurs through,for example,roundtables.Topics could in

165、clude how to delegate or how to raise capital.One example is ScaleNL Accelerator,a program for start-ups that want to grow and scale in the United States.The ScaleNL Accelerator will support up to 60 companies that follow a 12-week coaching program to prepare them for success in the American market.

166、Favorable talent and business environment For both founding and scaling start-ups,more and better talent could have a positive impact.Potential actions could include:1.ensuring fiscal policies are attractive for international top talent.The Netherlands currently taxes stock options via payroll tax(a

167、t a higher rate compared with,for example,capital gains tax in several other countries),while countries such as the United States,the United Kingdom,and Sweden have structures that dont tax stock options as heavily2.implementing additional tax incentives around angel investment tax deductions,such a

168、s the ones in multiple other countries,including France,Spain and SwedenFocus on sectors the Netherlands can win inFocusing on specific sectors the Netherlands can play a leading role in,such as energy,healthcare,fintech,and food and agriculture,could lead to more focus and a concentration of knowle

169、dge leading to a flywheel effect contributing to the scaling of start-ups.In terms of scientific knowledge,the Netherlands currently has a competitive edge in deep tech(for example,ASML,NXP,and Philips)and agtech(though there is an unmet need to commercialize this research properly).Potential action

170、 could include organization roundtables with a variety of stakeholders to validate the sectors where the Netherlands can play a leading role and determine where(geographically)different knowledge hubs could arise.This analysis shows it will take an orchestrated effort of the full range of stakeholde

171、rsfrom educators and legislators to VCs,founders,and CXOsto create a more prosperous and globally competitive start-up ecosystem.21Building a world-class Dutch start-up ecosystemTechnical appendixThis appendix provides additional details about the main sources of data and methodologies and explains

172、terms used in this paper.About the researchThe numbers presented in this report are based on a quantitative model developed to predict the impact of the Dutch start-up ecosystem by 2030.In addition,we conducted more than 20 qualitative interviews with key contributors and decision makers in the star

173、t-up ecosystem in April and May 2022 to derive concrete recommendations of how to achieve the goal of making the Dutch start-up ecosystem more relevant and to shape the target perspective for that ecosystem by 2030.The advancement of a start-up can be measured as the stage of funding the start-up ha

174、s received.With each funding round,both the market capitalization and typically the size of a start-up increase.Not all companies make it all the way through the entrepreneurial funnel;some start-ups are either forced or decide to not develop further.For the companies dropping out of the funnel,thre

175、e possibilities remain:a company can either cease operations altogether(for example,due to bankruptcy),become successful and continue doing business without any additional external funding,or be acquired.The value of a company is,simplified,considered equal to the valuation of the last funding round

176、.The job impact considers all jobs created in any company,regardless of its fate.The reason is that even if a company is terminated,jobs were created and former employees can move on to work at another companyeither bringing innovation to corporations or joining another start-up within the ecosystem

177、.To forecast the future development of the Dutch start-up ecosystem,two main drivers were considered:(1)an increase in the number of start-ups founded and(2)more successful scaling of start-ups.Input for the model is based on Crunchbase and Dealroom.co data sources:Start-ups:the key characteristics

178、and success of more than 130,000 companies founded from 2010 to 2020 in Europe and the United States,out of which approximately 77,900 are B2B start-ups and approximately 56,600 are B2C start-ups.Start-up success:a random sample of approximately 150 companies with detailed information on midsize exi

179、ts,profitability,and bankruptcies of start-ups that do not continue fundraising after a seed to Series D round.Funding rounds:the timing and valuations of more than 85,000 recorded funding rounds,out of which approximately 70,000 specified the funding stagefor example,seed;Series A,B,C,D;and later s

180、tage.In reality,the impact of the start-up ecosystem is likely to exceed the modeled impact because a number of simplifications in the model were made that tend to underestimate the resulting impact:First,our model only measures value growth by funding rounds,but many companies will still see a sign

181、ificant increase in value even after the end of venture capital funding through,for example,organic growth.Second,only start-ups with external equity funding were considered.This left out a number of successful but bootstrapped or debt-financed start-ups.22Building a world-class Dutch start-up ecosy

182、stemGlossary of termsStart-ups:Start-ups are young companies that have already received one round of funding from professional investors and that use innovative technology or business models to satisfy a previously unmet customer need;they generally have high growth ambitions and are building(or pla

183、n to build)a scalable product or service.Scale-ups:Scale-ups are entrepreneurial ventures that have achieved product-market fit and face exponential growth.Scale-ups have been through their first rounds of funding,reaching seed stage or similar.Unicorns:Unicorns are start-up companies with an estima

184、ted market capitalization above 1 billion before an exit or IPO.Job:For the purposes of this report,a job is a long-term paid position of regular employment.We are explicitly excluding gigs and freelance or contractor jobs from this definition.Authors and contactsAuthorsTobias Henz is an associate p

185、artner in McKinseys Munich office.Laura Hofstee is a consultant in the Amsterdam office,where Peter Jacobs and Sven Smit are senior partners and Mohcine Ouass is a partner.The authors wish to thank the organizations whose input has helped inform this report,including TechLeap.TechLeap contributed to

186、 the report by providing access to key stakeholders in the start-up ecosystem and by sharing internal data,research,and market perspectives.Editorial teamThe authors wish to thank Koen Heeringa,Daniel Okret,and Iris van Beek for their contributions to this report.Media contactJeroen Gaudissabois:Jeroen_GaudissaboisMcK23Building a world-class Dutch start-up ecosystemMcKinsey&CompanyNovember 2022Copyright McKinsey&Companywww.McK McKinsey McKinsey McKinsey