1、Land-Based Wind Market Report:2022 Editionii This report is being disseminated by the U.S.Department of Energy(DOE).As such,this document was prepared in compliance with Section 515 of the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for fiscal year 2001(public law 106-554)and information qual

2、ity guidelines issued by DOE.Though this report does not constitute“influential”information,as that term is defined in DOEs information quality guidelines or the Office of Management and Budgets Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review,the study was reviewed both internally and externally prior

3、to publication.For purposes of review,the study benefited from the advice and comments of eleven industry stakeholders,U.S.Government employees,and national laboratory staff.NOTICE This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government.Neither the Unite

4、d States government nor any agency thereof,nor any of their employees,makes any warranty,express or implied,or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy,completeness,or usefulness of any information,apparatus,product,or process disclosed,or represents that its use would not infr

5、inge privately owned rights.Reference herein to any specific commercial product,process,or service by trade name,trademark,manufacturer,or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement,recommendation,or favoring by the United States government or any agency thereof.The views and

6、 opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or any agency thereof.Available electronically at SciTech Connect:http:/www.osti.gov/scitech Available for a processing fee to U.S.Department of Energy and its contractors,in paper,from:U.

7、S.Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information P.O.Box 62 Oak Ridge,TN 37831-0062 OSTI:http:/www.osti.gov Phone:865.576.8401 Fax:865.576.5728 Email:reportsosti.gov Available for sale to the public,in paper,from:U.S.Department of Commerce National Technical Information Service

8、5301 Shawnee Road Alexandria,VA 22312 NTIS:http:/www.ntis.gov Phone:800.553.6847 or 703.605.6000 Fax:703.605.6900 Email:ordersntis.gov Land-Based Wind Market Report iii Preparation and Authorship This report was prepared by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory for the Wind Energy Technologies Offic

9、e of the U.S.Department of Energys Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.Corresponding authors of the report are:Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger,Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.The full author list includes:Ryan Wiser,Mark Bolinger,Ben Hoen,Dev Millstein,Joe Rand,Galen Barbose,Nam Darg

10、houth,Will Gorman,Seongeun Jeong,and Ben Paulos.Land-Based Wind Market Report iv Acknowledgments For their support of this ongoing report series,the authors thank the entire U.S.Department of Energy(DOE)Wind Energy Technologies Office team.In particular,we acknowledge Gage Reber and Patrick Gilman.F

11、or reviewing elements of this report or providing key input,we also thank:Manussawee Sukunta(U.S.Energy Information Administration);Andrew David(Silverado Policy Accelerator);Charlie Smith(Energy Systems Integration Group);Feng Zhao(Global Wind Energy Council);David Milborrow(consultant);John Hensle

12、y(American Clean Power Association);Mattox Hall(Vestas);Aaron Barr(Wood Mackenzie);and Patrick Gilman,Gage Reber,and Liz Hartman(DOE).For providing data that underlie aspects of the report,we thank the U.S.Energy Information Administration,BloombergNEF,Wood Mackenzie,Global Wind Energy Council,and t

13、he American Clean Power Association.Thanks also to Donna Heimiller(NREL)for assistance in mapping wind resource quality;and to Amy Howerton,Carol Laurie and Alexsandra Lemke(NREL),and Liz Hartman and Heather Doty(DOE)for assistance with layout,formatting,production,and communications.Lawrence Berkel

14、ey National Laboratorys contributions to this report were funded by the Wind Energy Technologies Office,Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy of the DOE under Contract No.DE-AC02-05CH11231.The authors are solely responsible for any omissions or errors contained herein.Land-Based Wind Mark

15、et Report v List of Acronyms ACPACP American Clean Power Association BPABPA Bonneville Power Administration CAISOCAISO CODCOD CCACCA California Independent System Operator commercial operation date community choice aggregator DOEDOE U.S.Department of Energy EIAEIA U.S.Energy Information Administrati

16、on ERCOTERCOT Electric Reliability Council of Texas FAAFAA Federal Aviation Administration FERCFERC Federal Energy Regulatory Commission GEGE General Electric Corporation GWGW gigawatt HTSHTS Harmonized Tariff Schedule IOUIOU investor-owned utility IPPIPP independent power producer ISOISO independen

17、t system operator ISOISO-NENE New England Independent System Operator ITCITC investment tax credit kVkV kilovolt kWkW kilowatt kWhkWh kilowatt-hour LCOELCOE levelized cost of energy mm2 2 square meter MISOMISO Midcontinent Independent System Operator MWMW megawatt MWhMWh megawatt-hour NRELNREL Natio

18、nal Renewable Energy Laboratory NYISONYISO New York Independent System Operator O&MO&M operations and maintenance OEMOEM original equipment manufacturer PJMPJM PJM Interconnection POUPOU publicly owned utility PPAPPA power purchase agreement PTCPTC production tax credit RECREC renewable energy certi

19、ficate Land-Based Wind Market Report vi RPSRPS renewables portfolio standard RTORTO regional transmission organization SGRESGRE Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy SPPSPP Southwest Power Pool WW watt WAPAWAPA Western Area Power Administration WECCWECC Western Electricity Coordinating Council Land-Based

20、Wind Market Report vii Executive Summary Wind power additions in the United States totaled 13.4 gigawatts(GW)in 2021.Recent growth is supported by the industrys primary federal incentivethe production tax credit(PTC)as well as a myriad of state-level policies.Long-term improvements in the cost and p

21、erformance of wind power technologies have also been key drivers for wind capacity additions,even as supply chain constraints due to increased commodity and transportation costs and COVID-19 restrictions push costs higher.Key findings from this years Land-Based Wind Market Reportwhich primarily focu

22、ses on land-based,utility-scale windinclude:Installation Trends U.S.wind power capacity grew at a strong pace in 2021,with 13.4 GW of new capacity added and$20 billion invested.Cumulative wind capacity grew to nearly 136 gigawatts(GW)by the end of 2021.In addition,1.6 GW of existing wind plants were

23、 partially repowered in 2021,mostly by upgrading rotors and nacelle components.Wind power represented the second largest source of U.S.electric-power capacity additions in 2021,at 32%,behind solars 45%.Wind power constituted 32%of all generation and storage capacity additions in 2021.Over the last d

24、ecade,wind represented 30%of total capacity additions,and a larger fraction of new capacity in SPP(83%),ERCOT(52%),MISO(52%),and the non-ISO West(33%).1 Globally,the United States again ranked second in annual wind capacity,but remained well behind the market leaders in wind energy penetration.Globa

25、l grid-connected wind additions totaled 94 GW in 2021,yielding a cumulative 839 GW.The United States remained the second-leading market in terms of annual and cumulative capacity,behind China.A number of countries have achieved high levels of wind penetration,with wind supplying 44%of Denmarks total

26、 electricity generation in 2021,and over 20%in Ireland,Portugal,Spain,Germany,and the U.K.In the United States,wind supplied 9.1%.Texas installed the most wind capacity in 2021 with 3,343 MW,followed by Oklahoma,New Mexico and Kansas;eleven states exceeded 20%wind energy penetration.Texas also remai

27、ned the leader on a cumulative basis,with nearly 36 GW of capacity.Notably,the wind capacity installed in Iowa supplied 55%of all in-state electricity generation in 2021,while South Dakota(52%),Kansas(45%),Oklahoma(41%),and North Dakota(34%)were all above 30%.Within independent system operators(ISOs

28、),wind penetration(expressed as a percentage of load)was 34.8%in SPP,24.2%in ERCOT,12.0%in MISO,8.4%in CAISO,3.5%in PJM,3.0%in ISO-NE,and 2.7%in NYISO.Hybrid wind plants that pair wind with storage and other resources saw limited growth in 2021,with just two new projects completed.There were 41 hybr

29、id wind power plants in operation at the end of 2021,representing 2.4 GW of wind and 0.9 GW of co-located assets.The most common wind hybrid project combines wind and storage technology,where 1.4 GW of wind has been paired with 0.2 GW of battery storage.The average storage duration of these projects

30、 is 0.6 hours,suggesting a focus on ancillary services and limited capacity to shift large amounts of energy across time.While only two new wind hybrids were commissioned in 2021,solar hybrids expanded rapidly with 67 new PV+storage projects coming online in 2021.1 The nine regions most commonly use

31、d in this report are the Southwest Power Pool(SPP),Electric Reliability Council of Texas(ERCOT),Midcontinent Independent System Operator(MISO),California Independent System Operator(CAISO),ISO New England(ISO-NE),PJM Interconnection(PJM),and New York Independent System Operator(NYISO),and the non-IS

32、O West and Southeast.Land-Based Wind Market Report viii A record-high 247 GW of wind power capacity now exists in transmission interconnection queues,but solar and storage are growing at a much more rapid pace.At the end of 2021,there were 247 GW of wind capacity seeking transmission interconnection

33、,including 77 GW of offshore wind and 19 GW of hybrid wind projects(in the latter case,mostly wind paired with storage).In 2021,73 GW of wind capacity entered interconnection queues.Energy storage interconnection requests have increased rapidly in recent years,both for stand-alone and hybrid plants,

34、most-often pairing solar with storage.The West(non-ISO),SPP,and NYISO regions had the greatest quantity of wind in their queues at the end of 2021.Roughly one-third of all wind capacity added to queues in 2021 was for offshore wind plants.Industry Trends Just four turbine manufacturers,led by GE,sup

35、plied all of the U.S.wind power capacity installed in 2021.In 2021,GE captured 47%of the U.S.market for turbine installations,followed by Vestas at 26%and Siemens-Gamesa Renewable Energy(SGRE)and Nordex,both at 13%.2 The domestic wind industry supply chain contracted in 2021,with a 50%decline in bla

36、de manufacturing capability.Domestic nacelle assembly and tower manufacturing capability declined modestly in 2021,to an equivalent 12.3 GW and 9.2 GW per year,respectively.Blade manufacturing capability plummeted by 50%,however,as three domestic manufacturing facilities closed or idled,and stood at

37、 4.6 GW per year.More broadly,fierce competition and supply-chain constraints resulted in low profit margins for turbine manufacturers.Nonetheless,wind-related job totals in the United States increased in 2021,to 120,164.Domestic manufacturing content is strong for some wind turbine components,but t

38、he U.S.wind industry remains reliant on imports,which totaled$3.1 billion in 2021.The United States imports wind equipment from many countries,including most prominently in 2021:Mexico,Spain,and India.Domestic content is highest for nacelle assembly(85%)and towers(55%70%).For blades,it declined prec

39、ipitously to just 1525%in 2021 as competitive pressures made blade imports more economical than domestically produced blades.Independent power producers own the majority of wind assets built in 2021,following historical trends.Independent power producers(IPPs)own 75%of the new wind capacity installe

40、d in the United States in 2021,with the remaining assets(25%)owned by investor-owned utilities.Direct retail sales and merchant offtake arrangements for wind,in combination,matched or surpassed long-term contracted wind sales to utilities in 2021.Electric utilities either own(25%)or buy electricity(

41、19%)from wind projects that,in total,represent 44%of the new wind capacity installed in 2021.But direct retail purchasers of windincluding corporate offtakersaccount for at least 35%,while merchant/quasi-merchant projects and power marketers make up at least another 7%and 2%,respectively.The remaind

42、er(11%)is presently undisclosed.Technology Trends Turbine capacity,rotor diameter,and hub height have all increased significantly over the long term.To optimize project cost and performance,and thus minimize overall cost of energy,turbines continue to grow in size.The average rated(nameplate)capacit

43、y of newly installed wind turbines in the United States in 2021 was 3.0 MW,up 9%from the previous year and 319%since 19981999.The average rotor diameter of newly installed turbines in 2021 was 127.5 meters,a 2%increase over 2020 and 164%over 19981999,while the average hub height was 93.9 meters,up 4

44、%from 2020 and 66%since 19981999.2 Numerical values presented here and elsewhere may not add to 100%,due to rounding.Land-Based Wind Market Report ix Turbines originally designed for lower wind speed sites dominate the market,but the trend towards lower specific power has reversed over the last two

45、years.With growth in swept rotor area outpacing growth in nameplate capacity,there has been a decline in the average“specific power”3(in W/m2),from 393 W/m2 among projects installed in 19981999 to 231 W/m2 among projects installed in 2021though specific power has modestly increased over the last two

46、 years.Turbines with low specific power were originally designed for lower wind speed sites,but are now being used at many sites as the most attractive technology.Wind turbines were deployed in somewhat lower wind-speed sites in 2021 than in the previous seven years.Wind turbines installed in 2021 w

47、ere located in sites with an average estimated long-term wind speed of 8.0 meters per second at a height of 100 meters above the groundthis is the lowest average long-term wind speed among newly built projects in the last eight years.Federal Aviation Administration(FAA)and industry data on projects

48、that are either under construction or in development suggest that the sites likely to be built out over the next few years will,on average,have even lower average wind speeds.Increasing hub heights help to partially offset these trends,enabling turbines to access higher wind speeds.Low-specific-powe

49、r turbines are deployed on a widespread basis;taller towers are seeing increased use in a wider variety of sites.Low specific power turbines continue to be deployed in all regions,and at both lower and higher wind speed sites.The tallest towers(i.e.,those above 100 meters)are found in greater relati

50、ve frequency in the upper Midwest and Northeastern regions.Wind projects planned for the near future are poised to continue the trend of ever-taller turbines.The average“tip height”(from ground to blade tip extended directly overhead)among projects that came online in 2021 is 517 feet(158 meters).FA

51、A data suggest that future projects will deploy even taller turbines.Among“proposed”turbines in the FAA permitting process,the average tip height reaches an average of 643 feet(196 meters).In 2021,twelve wind projects were partially repowered,most of which now feature significantly larger rotors and

52、 lower specific power ratings.Partially repowered projects in 2021 totaled 1.6 GW prior to repowering,a decline from the roughly 3 GW of projects partially repowered in each of the previous two years.Of the changes made to the turbines,larger rotors dominated,reducing specific power from 312 to 223

53、W/m2.The primary motivations for partial repowering have been to re-qualify for the PTC,while at the same time increasing energy production and extending the useful life of the projects.Performance Trends The average capacity factor in 2021 was 35%on a fleet-wide basis and 39%among wind projects bui

54、lt in recent years.The average 2021 capacity factor among projects built from 2014 to 2020 was 39%,compared to an average of 26%among projects built from 2004 to 2011,and 19%among projects built from 1998 to 2001.This improvement among more-recently built projects has pushed the cumulative fleet-wid

55、e capacity factor higher over time;it was 35%in 2021.The 2021 capacity factor for projects built in 2020 was 38%,somewhat lower than for projects built from 2014 to 2020.State and regional variations in capacity factors reflect the strength of the wind resource;capacity factors are highest in the ce

56、ntral part of the country.Based on projects built from 2016 to 2020,average capacity factors in 2021 were highest in central states and lower closer to the coasts.Not surprisingly,the state and regional rankings are roughly consistent with the relative quality of the wind resource in each region.3 A

57、 wind turbines specific power is the ratio of its nameplate capacity rating to its rotor-swept area.All else equal,a decline in specific power should lead to an increase in capacity factor.Land-Based Wind Market Report x Turbine design and site characteristics influence performance,with declining sp

58、ecific power leading to sizable increases in capacity factor over the long term.The decline in specific power has been a major contributor to higher capacity factors,but has been offset in part by a tendency toward building projects at sites with lower annual average wind speeds.As a result,average

59、capacity factors over the last eight years have been reasonable stable,with some evidence of modest declines most recently as specific power has drifted upwards and site quality has modestly decreased.Wind power curtailment in 2021 across seven regions averaged 4.8%,up from a low of 2.1%in 2016.Acro

60、ss all ISOs,wind energy curtailment in 2021 stood at 4.8%generally rising over the last five years.This average masks variation across regions and projects.SPP(6.4%),ERCOT(5.2%),and MISO(4.7%)experienced the highest rates of wind curtailment,while the other four ISOs were each at 2%or less.2021 was

61、an average wind resource year across most of the country.The strength of the wind resource varies from year to year;moreover,the degree of inter-annual variation differs from site to site(and,hence,also region to region).This temporal and spatial variation impacts project performance from year to ye

62、ar.In 2021,the national wind index stood at its long-term average,as most regions experienced a fairly average wind year(CAISO and NYISO excepted).Wind project performance degradation also explains why older projects did not perform as well in 2021.Capacity factor data suggest some amount of perform

63、ance decline with project age,though perhaps mostly once projects age beyond 10 years.The apparent decline in capacity factors as projects progress into their second decade partially explains why older projectse.g.,those built from 1998 to 2001did not perform as well as newer projects in 2021.From y

64、ear 15 to 20,project performance appears to average roughly 75%of early-year performance.Cost Trends Wind turbine prices increased by an average of 5%to 10%in 2021 given supply chain pressures.Wind turbine prices declined by 50%between 2008 and 2020.However,recent supply-chain pressures and rising c

65、ommodity prices led to increased turbine prices in 2021.Data indicate recent pricing generally in the range of$800/kW to$950/kW,4 roughly 5%to 10%higher than a year prior.Installed project costs in 2021 held steady at an average of$1,500/kW even as turbine prices rose.The capacity-weighted average i

66、nstalled cost within a sample of 2021 projects stood at$1,500/kW.This is a decrease of more than 40%from the peak in average costs in 2009 and 2010,but is roughly on par with the costs experienced in the early 2000salbeit with much larger turbines and improved performance today.Installed costs have

67、largely held steady over the last four years.Given the time-lag between turbine orders and project commissioning,installed project costs may rise in 2022.Installed costs differed by region,from$1,350/kW to$1,600/kW.ERCOT and the(non-California)Western states hosted the lowest-cost projects built in

68、2021,with average costs of$1,350/kW and$1,380/kW respectively.Higher average costs were experienced in other regions for projects installed in 2021;for example,average costs in SPP and MISO were$1,500/kW and$1,600/kW,respectively.Installed costs(per megawatt)generally decline with project size;are l

69、owest for projects over 200 MW.Installed costs exhibit economies of scale,with costs declining as project capacity increases.Operations and maintenance costs varied by project age and commercial operations date.Despite limited data availability,projects installed over the past 15 years have,on avera

70、ge,incurred lower operations and maintenance(O&M)costs than older projects in their first years of operation.The data also suggest that O&M costs tend to increase as projects age,at least for the older projects in the sample.4 All cost figures presented in the report are denominated in real 2021 dol

71、lars.Land-Based Wind Market Report xi Power Sales Price and Levelized Cost Trends Wind power purchase agreement prices have been drifting higher since about 2018,with a recent range from below$20/MWh to more than$30/MWh.The combination of declining CapEx and OpEx and improved performance drove wind

72、PPA prices to all-time lows through 2018,though prices have since stabilized and even increased somewhatin part due to supply-chain pressures and perhaps also due to the ongoing phase-down of the PTC.In the Central region of the country,recent pricing is around$20/MWh.In the West and East,prices ten

73、d to average above$30/MWh.LevelTen Energys PPA price indices confirm rising PPA prices,and regional variations.In contrast to the PPAs summarized above,which principally involve utility purchasers,LevelTen Energy provides an index of wind PPA offers made to large,end-use customers.These data also sh

74、ow that prices have generally risen over the last couple years,and vary by ISO.Among regions reporting data,CAISO features the highest pricing($52/MWh once converted to 2021 dollar terms);the lowest prices are found in ERCOT and SPP($25/MWh in 2021 dollars).In real dollar terms,LevelTens reported pr

75、ice trends since 2018 are similar to the real-dollar denominated PPA trends described in the prior section.The(unsubsidized)average levelized cost of wind energy has fallen to around$32/MWh.Trends in the levelized cost of energy(LCOE)generally follow PPA trends,at least over the long term.Winds LCOE

76、 generally decreased from 1998 to 2005,rose through 2009,and then declined through 2018,with a subsequent plateau over the last several years.The national average LCOE of wind projects built in 2021excluding the PTCwas$32/MWh.As supply chain pressures continue,LCOE may be expected to rise in the nea

77、r term.Levelized costs vary by region,with the lowest costs in ERCOT,SPP,and the non-ISO West.The lowest LCOEs for projects constructed in 2021only considering regions with a larger sampleare found in ERCOT($28/MWh),SPP($30/MWh),and the non-ISO West($29/MWh).Cost and Value Comparisons Despite low PP

78、A prices,wind faces competition from solar and gas.The once-wide gap between wind and solar PPA prices has narrowed considerably in recent years,as solar prices have fallen more rapidly than wind prices.With the support of federal tax incentives,both wind and solar PPA prices are now below the proje

79、cted cost of burning natural gas in gas-fired combined cycle units.The grid-system market value of wind rebounded in 2021 to levels last seen in 2018,and is roughly consistent with recent PPA prices of under$20/MWh to$40/MWh.Following the sharp drop in wholesale electricity prices(and,hence,wind ene

80、rgy market value)in 2009,average wind PPA prices tended to exceed the wholesale market value of wind through 2012.Continued declines in wind PPA prices brought those prices back in line with the market value of wind in 2013,and wind has generally remained competitive in subsequent years.In 2021,wind

81、 energy value rebounded from the 2020 low associated with the pandemic.The national average market value of wind in 2021 was$26/MWh.With high natural gas and wholesale power prices so far in 2022,winds average market value may increase again this year.The grid-system market value of wind in 2021 var

82、ied by project location,from an average of$16/MWh in MISO to$48/MWh in CAISO.Regionally,wind market value in 2021 was lowest in MISO and SPP(average of$16/MWh and$19/MWh,respectively)and highest in CAISO and ISO-NE($48/MWh and$44/MWh).The market value across all wind projects located in ISOs spanned

83、$7/MWh to$48/MWh in 2021(10th90th percentile range).Within a region,transmission congestion can noticeably reduce the grid-value of wind plants.In some situations,wind patterns are locally differentiated,and can lead to value enhancements or reductions versus plants located elsewhere.Land-Based Wind

84、 Market Report xii The grid-system market value of wind tends to decline with wind penetration,impacted by generation profile,transmission congestion,and curtailment.The regions with the highest wind penetrations(SPP at 35%,ERCOT at 24%,and MISO at 12%)have generally experienced the largest reductio

85、n in winds value relative to average wholesale prices.In 2021,winds value was roughly 40%,50%,60%,and 80%,lower than average wholesale prices in NYISO,MISO,SPP,and ERCOT,respectively;but was only roughly 10%lower in ISO-NE and CAISO,and 20%lower in PJM.These value reductions were primarily caused by

86、 a combination of transmission congestion and wind generation profiles that were negatively correlated with wholesale prices.Curtailment had only a minimal impact.The health and climate benefits of wind are larger than its grid-system value,and the combination of all three far exceeds the levelized

87、cost of wind.Wind reduces emissions of carbon dioxide,nitrogen oxides,and sulfur dioxide,providing public health and climate benefits.Nationally and considering all wind plants,these benefits can be quantified in monetary terms,averaging$80/MWh-wind in 2021.Benefits were largest,ranging from$83/MWh

88、to$125/MWh,in the Central,Midwest,and Mid-Atlantic regions.Values were lowest in New York($32/MWh)and New England($28/MWh).Focusing only on the set of wind plants built in 2021,the average climate,health,and grid-system value sums to almost four times the average LCOE.Climate,health,and grid value a

89、veraged$53/MWh,$39/MWh and$24/MWh,respectively,compared to an average LCOE of$32/MWh.Future Outlook Energy analysts project that total annual wind additions will generally decline through 2023 before rebounding.Specifically,expected additions drop to an average of 7 GW in 2023 before increasing to a

90、s much as 13 GW in 2025.These projected trends are driven in part by expectations about the expiration of the federal PTC,and by anticipated growth in offshore wind in the mid-2020s.Near-term additions are also influenced by the cost and performance of wind technologies,corporate wind energy purchas

91、es,and state-level renewable energy policies.Limited transmission infrastructure and competition from solar dampen growth expectations,while continuing supply chain pressures also impact deployment levels.Longer term,the prospects for wind energy will be influenced by the sectors ability to continue

92、 to improve its economic position even in the face of challenging competition and near-term supply chain constraints.Corporate demand for clean energy and state-level policies will also continue to impact wind deployment,as will the buildout of transmission infrastructure and uncertain future natura

93、l gas prices.Finally,there have been recent legislative proposals for a long-term extension of the PTC and other national policies to support a clean energy transition.The fate of these proposals will impact the sectors upside potential to exceed the projections shown above.Land-Based Wind Market Re

94、port xiii Table of Contents Executive Summary.vii 1 Introduction.1 2 Installation Trends.3 3 Industry Trends.14 4 Technology Trends.24 5 Performance Trends.33 6 Cost Trends.40 7 Power Sales Price and Levelized Cost Trends.47 8 Cost and Value Comparisons.53 9 Future Outlook.65 References.66 Appendix:

95、Sources of Data Presented in this Report.68 Land-Based Wind Market Report xiv List of Figures Figure 1.Regional boundaries overlaid on a map of average annual wind speed at 100 meters.2 Figure 2.Annual and cumulative growth in U.S.wind power capacity.3 Figure 3.Relative contribution of generation ty

96、pes and storage to U.S.annual capacity additions.4 Figure 4.Generation and storage capacity additions by region over last ten years.5 Figure 5.Wind energy penetration in subset of top global wind markets.6 Figure 6.Location of wind power development in the United States.7 Figure 7.Wind penetration a

97、s a proportion of load by independent system operator regions.9 Figure 8.Location and capacity of hybrid wind plants in the United States.10 Figure 9.Design characteristics of hybrid power plants operating in the United States,for a subset of configurations.11 Figure 10.Generation capacity in interc

98、onnection queues from 2014 to 2021,by resource type.11 Figure 11.Wind power capacity interconnection queues at end of 2021,by region.12 Figure 12.Generation capacity in interconnection queues,including hybrid power plants.13 Figure 13.Hybrid wind power plants in interconnection queues at the end of

99、2021.13 Figure 14.Annual U.S.market share of wind turbine manufacturers by MW,20052021.14 Figure 15.Location of turbine and component manufacturing facilities.15 Figure 16.Domestic wind manufacturing capability vs.U.S.wind power capacity installations.16 Figure 17.Turbine OEM global profitability.17

100、 Figure 18.Imports of wind-related equipment that can tracked with trade codes.18 Figure 19.Summary map of tracked wind-specific imports in 2021:top-10 countries of origin and states of entry.19 Figure 20.Origins of U.S.imports of selected wind turbine equipment in 2021.20 Figure 21.Approximate dome

101、stic content of major components in 2021.21 Figure 22.Cumulative and 2021 wind power capacity categorized by owner type.22 Figure 23.Cumulative and 2021 wind power capacity categorized by power offtake arrangement.23 Figure 24.Average turbine nameplate capacity,hub height,and rotor diameter for land

102、-based wind projects.24 Figure 25.Trends in turbine nameplate capacity,hub height,and rotor diameter.25 Figure 26.Trends in turbine specific power.25 Figure 27.Wind resource quality at 100 meter height by year of installation.27 Land-Based Wind Market Report xv Figure 28:Location of low specific pow

103、er turbine installations:all U.S.wind plants.28 Figure 29:Location of tall tower turbine installations:all U.S.wind plants.29 Figure 30.Total turbine heights proposed in FAA applications,over time.30 Figure 31.Total turbine heights proposed in FAA applications,by location.30 Figure 32.Annual amount

104、of partially repowered wind power capacity and number of turbines.31 Figure 33.Change in average physical specifications of all turbines that were partially repowered in 2021.32 Figure 34.Calendar year 2021 capacity factors by commercial operation date.34 Figure 35.Average calendar year 2021 capacit

105、y factor by state.34 Figure 36.2021 capacity factors and various drivers by commercial operation date.35 Figure 37.Calendar year 2021 capacity factors by wind resource quality and specific power:2014-2020 projects.36 Figure 38.Wind curtailment and penetration rates by ISO.37 Figure 39.Inter-annual v

106、ariability in the wind resource by region and nationally.38 Figure 40.Changes in project-level capacity factors as projects age.39 Figure 41.Reported wind turbine transaction prices over time.40 Figure 42.Installed wind power project costs over time.41 Figure 43.Installed wind power project costs by

107、 region,over time.42 Figure 44.Installed wind power project costs by region,in 2021.43 Figure 45.Installed wind power project costs by project size:2020 and 2021 projects.44 Figure 46.Average O&M costs for available data years from 2000 to 2021,by commercial operation date.45 Figure 47.Median annual

108、 O&M costs by project age and commercial operation date.46 Figure 48.Levelized wind PPA prices by PPA execution date and region(full sample).48 Figure 49.Generation-weighted average levelized wind PPA prices by PPA execution date and region.48 Figure 50.LevelTen Energy wind PPA price index by quarte

109、r of offer.49 Figure 51.Estimated levelized cost of wind energy by commercial operation date.50 Figure 52.Estimated levelized cost of wind energy,by region.51 Figure 53.Levelized wind and solar PPA prices and levelized gas price projections.53 Figure 54.Wind PPA prices and natural gas fuel cost proj

110、ections by calendar year over time.54 Figure 55.Regional wholesale market value of wind and average levelized long-term wind PPA prices over time.56 Land-Based Wind Market Report xvi Figure 56.Regional wholesale market value of wind in 2021,by region.58 Figure 57.Project-level wholesale market value

111、 of wind in 2021.59 Figure 58.Trends in wind value factor as wind penetrations increase.60 Figure 59.Impact of transmission congestion,output profile,and curtailment on wind energy market value in 2021.61 Figure 60.Marginal health and climate benefits from wind generation by region in 2021.62 Figure

112、 61.Marginal health,climate and grid-value benefits from new wind plants versus LCOE in 2021.63 Figure 62.Wind power capacity additions:historical installations and projected growth.65 List of Tables Table 1.International Rankings of Total Wind Power Capacity.5 Table 2.U.S.Wind Power Rankings:The To

113、p 20 States.8 Table A1.Harmonized Tariff Schedule(HTS)Codes and Categories Used in Wind Import Analysis.69 1 1 Introduction Wind power capacity additions in the United States totaled 13.4 gigawatts(GW)in 2021.Recent growth is supported by the industrys primary federal incentivethe production tax cre

114、dit(PTC)as well as a myriad of state-level policies.Long-term improvements in the cost and performance of wind power technologies have also been key drivers for wind capacity additions,yielding low-priced wind energy for utility,corporate,and other power purchasers even as supply chain constraints d

115、ue to increased commodity and transportation costs and COVID-19 restrictions begin to push costs higher.This annual reportnow in its sixteenth yearprovides an overview of trends in the U.S.wind power market,with a particular focus on the year 2021.The report begins with an overview of installation-r

116、elated trends:U.S.wind power capacity growth;how that growth compares to other countries and generation sources;the amount and percentage of wind energy in individual U.S.states;hybridization with storage and other sources of generation;and the quantity of proposed wind power capacity in interconnec

117、tion queues in the United States.Next,the report covers an array of wind industry trends:developments in turbine manufacturer market share;manufacturing and supply-chain developments;wind turbine and component imports into the United States;project financing developments;and trends among wind power

118、project owners and power purchasers.The report then turns to a summary of wind turbine technology trends:turbine capacity,hub height,rotor diameter,and specific power,as well as changes in site-average wind speed and recent repowering activity.After that,the report discusses wind performance,cost,an

119、d pricing.In doing so,it describes trends in capacity factors,wind turbine prices,installed project costs,and operations and maintenance(O&M)expenses.Levelized costs are calculated based on these input parameters.The report also reviews the prices paid for wind power through power purchase agreement

120、s(PPAs)and how those prices compare to the value of wind generation in wholesale energy markets,forecasts of future natural gas prices,and sales prices for solar power.An additional comparison assesses the levelized cost of wind energy relative to its societal value,defined somewhat narrowly here to

121、 include the grid-system value of wind along with its health and climate benefits.Finally,the report concludes with a preview of possible near-term market developments based on the findings of other analysts.Many of these trends vary by state or region,depending in part on the strength of the local

122、wind resource.To that end,Figure 1 superimposes the boundaries of nine regions,seven of which align with organized wholesale power markets(i.e.,independent system operators)5,on a map of average annual U.S.wind speed at 100 meters above the ground.These nine regions will be referenced on many occasi

123、ons throughout this report.This edition of the annual report updates data presented in previous editions while highlighting recent trends and new developments.The report concentrates on larger,utility-scale wind turbines,defined here as individual turbines that exceed 100 kW in size.6 The U.S.wind p

124、ower sector is multifaceted,and also includes smaller,customer-sited wind turbines used to power residences,farms,and businesses.Further information on distributed wind power,which includes smaller wind turbines as well as the use of larger turbines in distributed applications,is available through a

125、 separate annual report funded by the U.S.Department of Energy(DOE)the Distributed Wind Market Report.In Chapters 2,3,and 9where it is sometimes difficult to separate offshore and land-based windthis report emphasizes land-based and offshore wind,in combination.Other chapters exclusively focus on la

126、nd-based wind.A companion study funded by DOE that focuses exclusively on offshore wind power is also availablethe Offshore Wind Market Report.5 The seven independent system operators(ISOs)include the Southwest Power Pool(SPP),Electric Reliability Council of Texas(ERCOT),Midcontinent Independent Sys

127、tem Operator(MISO),California Independent System Operator(CAISO),ISO New England(ISO-NE),PJM Interconnection(PJM),and New York Independent System Operator(NYISO).6 This 100-kW threshold between“smaller”and“larger”wind turbines is applied starting with 2011 projects to better match the American Clean

128、 Power Associations historical methodology,and is also justified by the fact that the U.S.tax code makes a similar distinction.In years prior to 2011,different cut-offs are used to better match ACPs reported capacity numbers and to ensure that older utility-scale wind power projects in California ar

129、e not excluded from the sample.Land-Based Wind Market Report 2 Sources:AWS Truepower,National Renewable Energy Laboratory(NREL)Figure 1.Regional boundaries overlaid on a map of average annual wind speed at 100 meters Much of the data included in this report were compiled by DOEs Lawrence Berkeley Na

130、tional Laboratory(Berkeley Lab)from a variety of sources,including the U.S.Energy Information Administration(EIA),the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission(FERC),and the American Clean Power Association(ACPalong with its predecessor,the American Wind Energy Association).The Appendix provides a summar

131、y of the many data sources.In some cases,the data shown represent only a sample of actual wind power projects installed in the United States;furthermore,the data vary in quality.Emphasis should therefore be placed on overall trends,rather than on individual data points.Finally,each section of this r

132、eport primarily focuses on historical and recent data.With some limited exceptionsincluding the final section of the reportthe report does not seek to forecast wind energy trends.Land-Based Wind Market Report 3 2 Installation Trends U.S.wind power capacity grew at a strong pace in 2021,with 13.4 GW

133、of new capacity added and$20 billion invested U.S.wind capacity additions equaled 13.4 GW in 2021,bringing the cumulative total to nearly 136 GW at the end of the year(Figure 2).7 This growth represented$20 billion of investment in new wind power project installations in 2021,for a cumulative invest

134、ment total of roughly$270 billion since the beginning of the 1980s.8,9 Nearly 75%of the new wind capacity installed in 2021 is located in ERCOT,MISO and SPP.A relatively new trend is that of partial wind project repowering,in which major components of turbines are replaced.Such efforts provide acces

135、s to favorable tax incentives,increase energy production with more-advanced turbine technology,and extend project life.As detailed further in Chapter 4,in addition to the newly installed capacity reported above,1.6 GW of existing wind plants were partially repowered in 2021,mostly in the form of inc

136、reased rotor diameters and the replacement of major nacelle components;this is a decline from the previous two years,when roughly 3 GW were retrofitted each year.10 Source:ACP Figure 2.Annual and cumulative growth in U.S.wind power capacity 7 The nearly 136 GW of cumulative capacity includes the 30

137、MW Block Island offshore wind plant and the 12 MW Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind pilot project.When reporting annual capacity additions,this report focuses on gross additions,and does not consider partial repowering.The net increase in capacity each year can be somewhat lower,reflecting turbine deco

138、mmissioning,or higher,reflecting partial repowering that increases nameplate capacities.Cumulative capacity(Total in Figure 2)includes both decommissioning and repowering.8 All cost and price data are reported in real 2021 dollars.9 These investment figures are based on an extrapolation of the avera

139、ge project-level capital costs reported later in this report and do not include investments in manufacturing facilities,research and development expenditures,or O&M costs;nor do they include investments to partially repowered plants.10 The 1.6 GW of partially repowered capacity reflects the initial

140、capacity,prior to refurbishment.Any change in capacity from partial repowering is included in the cumulative data but not the annual data reported in Figure 2.0408052022004200620082001620182020 Noncontiguous Southeast(non-ISO)ISO-NE NYISO CAISO PJM West(non-ISO)MISO

141、SPP ERCOTCumulative Total Capacity(GW)Annual Regional Capacity(GW)Cumulative TotalLand-Based Wind Market Report 4 As in previous years,growth was driven in part by long-term improvements in the cost and performance of wind power technologies.The federal PTC,state renewables portfolio standards(RPS),

142、and corporate demand for renewable energy also played important roles.Meanwhile,the ability of partially repowered wind projects to access the PTC has been the primary motivator for the growth in partial repowering in recent years.The industry also contended with headwinds in 2021,however,related to

143、 supply chain pressures,policy uncertainty,and interconnection delays,which together reportedly caused 5 GW of wind projects previously planned for completion in 2021to slip to later years(ACP 2022).Wind power represented the second largest source of U.S.electric-power capacity additions in 2021,at

144、32%,behind solars 45%Wind power has comprised a sizable share of capacity additions in recent years.In 2021,it constituted 32%of all U.S.generation and storage capacity additions,second only to solar power at 45%(Figure 3).11 Natural gas and other non-renewable capacity additions continued their rec

145、ent decline,falling to their lowest level in more than 20 years.Sources:Hitachi,ACP,EIA,Berkeley Lab Figure 3.Relative contribution of generation types and storage to U.S.annual capacity additions Over the last decade,wind power represented 30%of total U.S.generation and storage capacity additions,a

146、nd an even larger fraction of new capacity in SPP(83%),ERCOT(52%),MISO(52%),and the non-ISO West(33%)(Figure 4;see Figure 1 for regional definitions).Wind powers contribution to capacity growth over the last decade is somewhat smallerbut still significantin PJM(12%),NYISO(11%),ISO-NE(10%),and CAISO(

147、8%),and considerably less in the Southeast(1%).11 Data presented here are based on gross capacity additions,not considering retirements or partial repowering.For solar,both utility-scale and distributed applications are included.Data include only the 50 U.S.states,not U.S.territories.40%6%24%38%26%2

148、4%20%32%42%32%0000021Annual Capacity Additions(GW)Other non-RECoalGasOther REStorageSolarWindLand-Based Wind Market Report 5 *U.S.Total also includes AK and HI,in addition to the regions listed Sources:Hitachi,ACP,EIA,Berkeley Lab Figure 4.Generation and s

149、torage capacity additions by region over last ten years Globally,the United States again ranked second in annual wind capacity,but remained well behind the market leaders in wind energy penetration Global wind additions totaled 94 GW in 2021(including both land-based and offshore wind,and focusing o

150、n capacity that was been connected to the grid).With its 13.4 GW representing 14%of new global installed capacity in 2021,the United States continued to maintain its second-place position behind China(Table 1).Cumulative global wind capacity totaled 839 GW at the end of the year(GWEC 2022),12 with t

151、he United States accounting for 16%also a distant second to China.Table 1.International Rankings of Total Wind Power Capacity Sources:GWEC(2022);ACP for U.S.12 Yearly and cumulative installed wind power capacity in the United States are from the present report,while global wind power capacity comes

152、from GWEC(2022)but are updated,where necessary,with the U.S.data presented here.83%52%52%33%12%11%10%8%1%30%0%20%40%60%80%100%SPPERCOTMISOWest(non-ISO)PJMNYISOISO-NECAISO Southeast(non-ISO)U.S.TotalPercent of Capacity Additions:2012-2021Other non-RECoalGasOther REStorageSolarWindChina47.6China338.3U

153、nited States13.4United States135.9Brazil3.8Germany64.5Vietnam3.5India40.1United Kingdom2.6Spain28.3Sweden2.1United Kingdom26.6Germany1.9Brazil21.6Australia 1.7France19.1India1.5Canada 14.3Turkey1.4Sweden12.1Rest of World14.7Rest of World138.1TOTAL94.3TOTAL838.9Annual CapacityCumulative Capacity(2021

154、,GW)(end of 2021,GW)Land-Based Wind Market Report 6 A number of countries have achieved relatively high levels of wind energy penetration(i.e.,wind generation as a percentage of total generation)in their electricity grids.Figure 5 presents data on a subset of countries.Wind penetration was 44%in Den

155、mark in 2021,and was between 22%and 31%in Ireland,Portugal,Spain,Germany,and the U.K.In the United States,wind supplied 9.1%of total electricity generation in 2021(see Table 2 for additional details).Source:ACP Figure 5.Wind energy penetration in subset of top global wind markets Texas installed the

156、 most wind capacity in 2021 with 3,343 MW,followed by Oklahoma,New Mexico and Kansas;eleven states exceeded 20%wind energy penetration New utility-scale wind turbines were installed in 22 states in 2021(including a 12 MW pilot offshore wind project in Virginia).Texas once again installed the most ne

157、w wind capacity of any state,adding 3,343 MW.As shown in Figure 6 and in Table 2,other leading statesin terms of new capacityincluded Oklahoma,New Mexico,and Kansas,all of which added more than 1,000 MW(i.e.,1 GW)of new wind in 2021.On a cumulative basis,Texas remained the clear leader,with 36 GW in

158、stalled at the end of 2021almost three times as much as the next-highest state(Iowa).In fact,Texas has more wind capacity than all but four countries(Table 1).States distantly following Texas in cumulative installed capacity include Iowa(12 GW),Oklahoma(11 GW),Kansas(8 GW),Illinois(7 GW),and Califor

159、nia(6 GW).Thirty-five states,plus Puerto Rico,had more than 100 MW of wind capacity as of the end of 2021,with 23 of these above 1 GW,19 above 2 GW,and 15 above 3 GW.0%10%20%30%40%50%DenmarkIrelandPortugalSpainGermanyU.K.SwedenGreeceNetherlandsEUBelgiumAustraliaBrazilRomaniaAustriaCroatiaRomaniaTurk

160、eyLithuaniaUnited StatesPolandFinlandEstoniaNorwayFranceChinaItalyMexicoCanadaWind as Percentage of Total Generation in 2021Land-Based Wind Market Report 7 Sources:ACP,Berkeley Lab Figure 6.Location of wind power development in the United States Some states have reached high levels of wind energy pe

161、netration.The right half of Table 2 lists the top 20 states based on actual wind electricity generation in 2021 divided by total in-state electricity generation and by in-state electricity sales in 2021.Electric transmission networks enable most states to both import and export power in real time,an

162、d states do so in varying amounts.Denominating in-state wind generation as both a proportion of in-state generation and as a proportion of in-state sales is relevant,but both should be viewed with some caution given varying amounts of imports and exports.As a fraction of in-state generation,Iowa lea

163、ds the list,with 55%of electricity generated in the state coming from wind,followed by South Dakota,Kansas,Oklahoma,and North Dakota.As a fraction of in-state sales,South Dakota is the leading state,with nearly 72%of the electricity sold in the state being met by wind,followed by Iowa,North Dakota,a

164、nd Kansas(all over 60%),and then Wyoming and Oklahoma(both over 50%).Eleven states have achieved wind penetration levels of 20%or higher when expressed either as a percentage of generation or as a percentage of sales.Land-Based Wind Market Report 8 Table 2.U.S.Wind Power Rankings:The Top 20 States I

165、nstalled Capacity(MW)2021 Wind Generation as a Percentage of:Annual(2021)Cumulative(end of 2021)In-State Generation In-State Sales Texas 3,343 Texas 35,969 Iowa 55.1%South Dakota 71.6%Oklahoma 1,403 Iowa 12,219 South Dakota 52.3%Iowa 69.1%New Mexico 1,368 Oklahoma 10,994 Kansas 45.1%North Dakota 63.

166、3%Kansas 1,228 Kansas 8,245 Oklahoma 41.4%Kansas 63.0%South Dakota 610 Illinois 6,997 North Dakota 34.0%Wyoming 53.3%Iowa 600 California 6,142 New Mexico 29.8%Oklahoma 51.5%Illinois 580 Colorado 5,035 Colorado 26.0%New Mexico 41.4%Michigan 550 Minnesota 4,591 Nebraska 25.1%Nebraska 30.5%Indiana 500

167、North Dakota 4,302 Maine 23.0%Colorado 26.4%Missouri 448 New Mexico 4,001 Minnesota 21.6%Texas 23.5%Nebraska 388 Oregon 3,842 Texas 20.6%Maine 22.2%Wyoming 349 Indiana 3,468 Wyoming 19.3%Minnesota 19.6%Colorado 305 Washington 3,396 Oregon 15.6%Montana 18.9%North Dakota 299 Wyoming 3,178 Idaho 15.6%O

168、regon 18.5%California 288 Michigan 3,159 Vermont 14.5%Illinois 13.8%Minnesota 266 Nebraska 2,942 Montana 11.5%Washington 10.8%Ohio 247 South Dakota 2,915 Illinois 10.2%Idaho 10.5%Montana 240 Missouri 2,435 Washington 8.7%Missouri 8.4%New York 205 New York 2,191 Missouri 8.4%Indiana 7.9%West Virginia

169、 169 Pennsylvania 1,459 Indiana 8.3%Michigan 7.9%Rest of U.S.27 Rest of U.S.8,405 Rest of U.S.1.6%Rest of U.S.1.5%TOTAL 13,413 TOTAL 135,886 TOTAL 9.1%TOTAL 10.0%Note:Based on 2021 wind and total generation and retail sales by state from EIAs Electric Power Monthly.Sources:ACP,EIA Given the ability

170、to trade power across state boundaries,estimates of wind penetration within entire multi-state markets operated by the major independent system operators(ISOs)are also relevant.In 2021,wind penetration(expressed as a percentage of load)was 34.8%in SPP,24.2%in ERCOT,12.0%in MISO,8.4%in CAISO,3.5%in P

171、JM,3.0%in ISO-NE,and 2.7%in NYISO(Figure 7).Land-Based Wind Market Report 9 Sources:SPP,ERCOT,MISO,CAISO,PJM,ISO-NE,NYISO Figure 7.Wind penetration as a proportion of load by independent system operator regions Hybrid wind plants that pair wind with storage and other resources saw limited growth in

172、2021,with just two new projects completed Though only two new wind hybrid projects were commissioned in 2021,there were 41 hybrid wind power plants in operation at the end of 2021,representing 2.4 GW of wind and 0.9 GW of co-located assets(storage,PV,or fossil-fueled generators).Some of these repres

173、ent full hybrids where,for example,wind and storage are co-located and the design,configuration,and operation of the constituent technologies are fully integrated.In other cases,plants are co-located,sharing a point of interconnection,but are designed,configured,and operated more independently(e.g.,

174、hybrids that pair wind and gas plants).The most common type of wind hybrid project combines wind and storage technology,where 1.4 GW of wind has been paired with 0.2 GW of battery storage across 14 plants.However,no new projects of this type were installed in 2021.Other combinations include wind and

175、 PV;wind,PV,and storage;wind and gas;and more(Figure 8).The ERCOT region hosts the largest amount of wind capacity in hybrid plants(0.86 GW),followed by PJM(0.77 GW)and the non-ISO West(0.43 GW).Wind capacity tends to be largest for wind+storage hybrids than for other hybrid configurations.0%5%10%15

176、%20%25%30%35%40%20082009200001920202021Wind Penetration(%)SPPCAISOMISONYISOPJMISO-NEERCOTLand-Based Wind Market Report 10 Sources:EIA-860 2021 Early Release,Berkeley Lab Figure 8.Location and capacity of hybrid wind plants in the United States Figure 9 displays desig

177、n characteristics for a subset of the more-common hybrid plant configurations,including those that do not incorporate wind.Wind+storage hybrids have a 14%storage-to-generator ratio with an average storage duration of just 0.6 hours,suggesting a focus on providing ancillary services and only limited

178、capacity to shift large amounts of energy across time.Fossil+storage hybrids have similar storage-to-generator ratios(12%)but longer battery durations(1.2 hours).PV+storage hybrids have significantly higher average storage-to-generator ratios(53%)and battery durations(3.2 hours).Based on data from p

179、roposed projects,presented in the next section on interconnection queues,there is growing interest in hybridizing with larger storage-to-generator ratios and longer storage durations.Notes:Not included in the figure are 108 hybrid projects with other configurations.Storage ratio defined as total sto

180、rage capacity divided by total generator capacity for a given project type.Sources:EIA-860 2021 Early Release,Berkeley Lab#projectsTotal capacity(MW)Storage ratioDuration(hrs)WindPVFossilStoragePV+Storage1404,176.92,195.653%3.2Wind+Storage141,425.3198.114%0.6Wind+PV+Storage3322.524.537.811%0.5Fossil

181、+Storage246,067.3727.312%1.2Wind+PV9593.5269.00.0n/an/a01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000WindPVFossilStorageLand-Based Wind Market Report 11 Figure 9.Design characteristics of hybrid power plants operating in the United States,for a subset of configurations The trend to co-locate wind with other a

182、ssets has progressed at a slow,steady pace since 2006,with two new wind hybrids commencing operation in 2021:one Wind+PV and the other Wind+PV+Storage.In contrast,commercial interest in solar hybrids has expanded rapidly,with 67 new PV+storage projects coming online in 2021.A record-high 247 GW of w

183、ind power capacity now exists in transmission interconnection queues,but solar and storage are growing at a much more rapid pace One testament to the amount of developer and purchaser interest in wind energy is the amount of wind power capacity working its way through the major transmission intercon

184、nection queues across the country.Figure 10 provides this information over the last eight years for wind power and other resources aggregated across more than 40 different interconnection queues administered by ISOs and utilities.13 These data should be interpreted with caution:placing a project in

185、the interconnection queue is a necessary step in project development,but being in the queue does not guarantee that a project will be built.An analysis of five ISO queues found an overall average completion rate of 23%for projects of all types proposed from 2000 to 2016(Rand et al.2022).Some project

186、s are speculative in nature,and duplicate projects also complicate interpretation.Notes:Hybrid storage capacity is estimated using storage:generator ratios from projects that provide separate capacity data;storage capacity in hybrids was not estimated for years prior to 2020;offshore wind was not se

187、parately identified prior to 2020.Source:Berkeley Lab review of interconnection queues Figure 10.Generation capacity in interconnection queues from 2014 to 2021,by resource type Even with this important caveat,the amount of wind capacity in the nations interconnection queues still provides at least

188、some indication of the amount of developer interest.At the end of 2021,there were 247 GW 13 The queues surveyed include PJM,MISO,NYISO,ISO-NE,CAISO,ERCOT,SPP,Western Area Power Administration(WAPA),Bonneville Power Administration(BPA),Tennessee Valley Authority(TVA),and a large number of other indiv

189、idual utilities.To provide a sense of sample size and coverage,the ISOs,RTOs,and utilities whose queues are included here have an aggregated non-coincident(balancing authority)peak demand of over 85%of the U.S.total.The figures in this section only include projects that were active in the queues at

190、the times specified but that had not yet been built;suspended projects are not included.Darker green is offshoreLand-Based Wind Market Report 12 of wind capacity in the queues reviewed for this reporta marked increase from the 209 GW in the queues the previous year and supported by continued growth

191、in offshore wind in the queues.In 2021,73 GW of new wind capacity entered the queues,12 GW of which were in hybrid configurations and 24 GW of which were for offshore wind.Solar additions to interconnection queues far outpaced wind in 2021,with 265 GW added.Storage additions to the queues have incre

192、ased much more rapidly than wind in recent years as well,both for standalone plants and hybridized with solar or wind.Overall,wind represented 17%of all capacity in the queues at the end of 2021,compared to 47%for solar,29%for storage,and just 5%for natural gas.The total wind capacity in the interco

193、nnection queues is spread across the United States,as shown in Figure 11(left image),with the largest amounts in the West(non-ISO)(20%),SPP(17%),NYISO(16%),and PJM(16%).Smaller amounts are found in MISO(9%),CAISO(7%),ISO-NE(7%),ERCOT(6%),and the Southeast(non-ISO)(1%).A majority(56%)of wind capacity

194、 in the queues has requested to come online by the end of 2024,and 16%of wind capacity has a fully executed interconnection agreement.Focusing just on wind power additions to the queues in 2021(Figure 11,right image),the West(non-ISO),NYISO,CAISO,and PJM experienced especially large annual additions

195、,with NYISOs additions being almost entirely for offshore wind(11 GW each).Across all queues,31%(77 GW)of all wind capacity in the queues at the end of 2021 was offshore,and 33%(24 GW)of the wind added to queues in 2021 was offshore.Offshore wind capacity was added on both the East Coast(NYISO,PJM,I

196、SO-NE)and the West Coast(CAISO).Source:Berkeley Lab review of interconnection queues Figure 11.Wind power capacity interconnection queues at end of 2021,by region As shown in Figure 12,42%of the solar capacity in interconnection queues at the end of 2021 has been proposed as hybrid plants,whereas on

197、ly 8%of the wind capacity is paired with storage or another generation resource.In part this is due to policy designthe investment tax credit for solar can also be used for paired storage,whereas the production tax credit regularly used by wind plants has no such storage allowance.Of the 19 GW of pr

198、oposed wind capacity in hybrid configurations,the majority(12 GW)is paired with storage,with less paired with solar(4 GW)or both solar and storage(2 GW).Land-Based Wind Market Report 13 Source:Berkeley Lab review of interconnection queues Figure 12.Generation capacity in interconnection queues,inclu

199、ding hybrid power plants As shown in Figure 13,commercial interest in wind hybrid plants is highest in California and the West(non-ISO).In fact,42%of the wind in CAISOs queues is proposed as a hybrid,as is 15%of the wind in the West.Source:Berkeley Lab review of interconnection queues Figure 13.Hybr

200、id wind power plants in interconnection queues at the end of 2021 00500600700SolarWindStorageNatural GasOtherStandaloneHybridCapacity in Queues at end of 2021(GW)42%3%8%49%40%Land-Based Wind Market Report 14 3 Industry Trends Just four turbine manufacturers,led by GE,supplied all of the U

201、.S.wind power capacity installed in 2021 Of the 13.4 GW of wind installed in the United States in 2021,GE Wind supplied 47%,with Vestas coming in second(26%),followed by Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy(SGRE,13%)and Nordex(13%)essentially tied in third(Figure 14).14 GE and Vestas have dominated the U

202、.S.market for some time,with SGRE and Nordex vying for third.Source:ACP Figure 14.Annual U.S.market share of wind turbine manufacturers by MW,20052021 The domestic wind industry supply chain contracted in 2021,with a 50%decline in blade manufacturing capability Figure 15 identifies the many wind tur

203、bine component manufacturing,assembly,and other supply chain facilities operating in the United States at the end of 2021.Three of the major turbine OEMs that serve the U.S.wind industryGE,Vestas,and SGREare represented within this total,each having one or more operating manufacturing facility.The f

204、igure also highlights the geographic breadth of the domestic supply chain.14 Market share is reported in MW terms and is based on project installations in the year in question.0%20%40%60%80%100%2005200820020OtherGoldwindAcciona(pre-2016)Nordex(pre-2016)Nordex AccionaGamesa(pre-2017)Siemen

205、s(pre-2017)SGREVestasGE WindU.S.Market Share by MWLand-Based Wind Market Report 15 Source:ACP Figure 15.Location of turbine and component manufacturing facilities In aggregate,domestic turbine nacelle assembly15 capabilitydefined here as the maximum annual nacelle assembly capability of U.S.plants i

206、f all were operating at full utilizationgrew from less than 1.5 GW in 2006 to more than 13 GW in 2012,fell to roughly 10 GW in 2015,and then rose to 15 GW in 2020 before declining to 12.3 GW in 2021(Figure 16).In addition,from 2012 through 2020,domestic blade and tower manufacturing capability was l

207、argely stable or growing,in each case increasing from around 7 to 8 GW/year in 2012 to around 10 GW/year.In 2021,however,the supply chain contractedmodestly for nacelle assembly and towers,but a 50%drop in blade manufacturing capability to 4.6 GW/year.Based on ACP(2022),three blade manufacturing pla

208、nts closed or idled production in 2021:TPI Composites(Newton,IA),Molded Fiber Glass(Aberdeen,SD),and Vestas(Brighton,CO).Arcosa(Clinton,IL),meanwhile,idled one of its tower manufacturing facilities.A combination of competition from foreign suppliers and uncertain future deployment for land-based win

209、d in the United States are conspiring to weaken domestic wind manufacturing capabilities.Figure 16 contrasts this equipment manufacturing capability with past U.S.wind additions as well as near-term forecasts of future new installations(see Chapter 9,“Future Outlook”).It demonstrates that domestic m

210、anufacturing capability for towers and nacelle assembly remains reasonably well balanced with projected wind additions in the United States,but that blade manufacturing capability has fallen well below near-term wind additions as international suppliers outcompete domestic ones.Note that manufacturi

211、ng facilities do not typically operate at maximum capability;see the next section of the report for estimates of domestic manufacturing content.15 Nacelle assembly is defined as the process of combining the multitude of components included in a turbine nacelle,such as the gearbox and generator,to pr

212、oduce a complete turbine nacelle unit.Land-Based Wind Market Report 16 0562008200022e2024e2026eCapacity(GW)Actual wind capacity additionsAverage forecast capacity additionsNacelle manufacturing capacityTower production capacityBlade production capacitySources:ACP,ind

213、ependent analyst projections,Berkeley Lab Figure 16.Domestic wind manufacturing capability vs.U.S.wind power capacity installations More generally,fierce competition among manufacturers has generally reduced turbine OEM profitability over the last several years.High recent commodity and transportati

214、on costs along with COVID-19 restrictions have also limited manufacturer profitability(Figure 17).16 16 Although it is one of the largest turbine suppliers in the U.S.market,GE is not included because it is a multi-national conglomerate that does not report segmented financial data for its wind turb

215、ine division.Land-Based Wind Market Report 17 Note:EBITDA=Earnings Before Interest,Taxes,Depreciation and Amortization Sources:OEM annual reports and financial statements Figure 17.Turbine OEM global profitability Despite these supply-chain challenges,wind-related job totals in the United States inc

216、reased by 2.9%in 2021,to 120,164 full-time workersbenefitting from continued robust development(DOE 2022).These jobs include,among others,those in construction(43,371)and manufacturing(23,644).Domestic manufacturing content is strong for some wind turbine components,but the U.S.wind industry remains

217、 reliant on imports,which totaled$3.1 billion in 2021 Despite the breadth of the domestic wind industry supply chain,the U.S.wind sector is reliant on imports of wind equipment.The level of dependence varies by component:some components have a relatively high domestic share,whereas others remain lar

218、gely imported.These trends are revealed,in part,by data on wind equipment trade from the U.S.Department of Commerce.17 Figure 18 presents data on the dollar value of estimated imports to the United States of wind-related equipment that can be tracked through trade codes.The figure shows imports of w

219、ind-powered generating sets and parts,including nacelles(i.e.,nacelles with blades,nacelles without blades,and,in some cases,other turbine components internal to the nacelle)as well as imports of other select turbine components shipped separately from the generating sets and nacelles.18 The turbine

220、components included in the figure consist only of those that can be tracked through trade codes:towers,generators(as well as generator parts),and blades and hubs.19 17 See the Appendix for further details on data sources and methods used in this section,including the specific trade codes considered.

221、18 Wind turbine components such as blades,towers,and generators are included in the data on wind-powered generating sets and nacelles if shipped in the same transaction.Otherwise,these component imports are reported separately.19 Though all of the import estimates are specific to wind equipment in 2

222、020 and 2021,import trends should be viewed with particular caution because the underlying data from earlier years used to produce Figure 17 are based on trade categories that are not all exclusive to wind.Some of the import estimates shown in Figure 17 for years prior to 2020 therefore required -10

223、%-5%0%5%10%15%20%20082009200001920202021GoldwindVestasGamesa/SGRENordexProfit Margin(EBITDA)Land-Based Wind Market Report 18 Note:Wind-related trade codes and definitions are not consistent over the full time period.Source:Berkeley Lab analysis of data from USA Trade

224、 Online,https:/usatrade.census.gov Figure 18.Imports of wind-related equipment that can tracked with trade codes The estimated imports of tracked wind-related equipment into the United States increased substantially from 2006 to 2008,before falling through 2010,increasing somewhat in 2011 and 2012,a

225、nd then plummeting in 2013 with the simultaneous drop in U.S.wind installations.From 2014 through 2021,imports of wind-related turbine equipment generally followed U.S.wind installation trends,bouncing back from the low of 2013 and then with a marked decline in 2021 as wind plant installations decli

226、ned from the previous year.Interpreting time trends in these data is challenging,however,given changes in annual wind additions from year to year,time lags between equipment import and installation,and fluctuations in wind turbine and equipment pricing.Also,because imports of component parts occur i

227、n additional,broad trade categories different from those included in Figure 18,the data presented here understate the aggregate amount of wind equipment imports.Figure 19 shows the total value of tracked wind-specific imports to the United States in 2021,by country of origin,as well as states of ent

228、ry.Major countries from which the U.S.imports wind equipment include Mexico,Spain,and India,which together account for more than$1.5 billion in wind-specific exports to the U.S.in 2021.Texas is the dominant entry point,a persisting trend in the last five years,with over$2 billion of wind-specific eq

229、uipment flowing through it in 2021,followed distantly by Illinois,Michigan,Louisiana,and Florida.assumptions about the fraction of larger trade categories likely to be represented by wind turbine components.For example,from 2013 through 2019,nacelles(when shipped alone)are included in a trade catego

230、ry that is not largely exclusive to wind.The trade code for tower imports is also not entirely exclusive to wind,but is believed to be dominated by wind since 2011we assume that 100%of imports from this trade category,since 2011,represent wind equipment.02462006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20

231、14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Imports(Billion 2021$)Other wind-related equipmentWind generators and generator partsWind blades and hubsWind towersWind-powered generating sets and parts,including nacellesLand-Based Wind Market Report 19 Note:Line widths are proportional to import amount by cou

232、ntry.Figure does not intend to depict the destination of these imports,by state.Source:Berkeley Lab analysis of data from USA Trade Online,https:/usatrade.census.gov Figure 19.Summary map of tracked wind-specific imports in 2021:top-10 countries of origin and states of entry Looking behind these dat

233、a,Spain,followed by Brazil,Denmark,Belgium,and Germany,were the primary source countries for wind-powered generating sets and parts,including nacelles,in 2021(Figure 20).Tower imports came from a mix of countries near and farMalaysia,Canada,South Korea,Mexico,and India.With regard to blades and hubs

234、,Mexico and India accounted for almost 50%of imports,with Spain,Brazil,and China the next largest source countries in 2021.Finally,over two thirds of wind-related generators and generator parts in 2021 came from Vietnam and Spain,the rest primarily coming from Germany,Serbia,and China.Land-Based Win

235、d Market Report 20 Source:Berkeley Lab analysis of data from USA Trade Online,https:/usatrade.census.gov Figure 20.Origins of U.S.imports of selected wind turbine equipment in 2021 Figure 21 presents rough estimates of the domestic content for a subset of the major wind turbine components used in ne

236、w(and repowered)U.S.wind projects in 2021.Domestic content remains relatively strong for larger components such as towers and also for nacelle assembly.The domestic manufacturing content of blades,on the other hand,has declined precipitously in recent years.More broadly,these figures may understate

237、the wind industrys reliance on foreign suppliers,because significant wind-related imports occur under trade categories not captured in this figure,including equipment(such as mainframes,converters,pitch and yaw systems,main shafts,bearings,bolts,controls)and manufacturing inputs(such as foreign stee

238、l in domestic manufacturing).Wind blades and hubsWind generators and partsWind-powered generating sets and parts,including nacellesTotal 2021 imports:$453 millionTop countries:Spain(34%)Brazil(17%)Denmark(15%)Belgium(10%)Germany(10%)Wind towersTotal 2021 imports:$197 millionTop countries:Vietnam(39%

239、)Spain(30%)Germany(16%)Serbia(4%)China(2%)Total 2021 imports:$1,936 millionTop countries:Mexico(28%)India(21%)Spain(15%)Brazil(10%)China(6%)Total 2021 imports:$478 millionTop countries:Malaysia(31%)Canada(21%)S.Korea(13%)Mexico(9%)India(8%)AsiaEuropeSouth AmericaNorth AmericaOtherLand-Based Wind Mar

240、ket Report 21 Source:Berkeley Lab analysis Figure 21.Approximate domestic content of major components in 2021 Independent power producers own the majority of wind assets built in 2021,following historical trends Independent power producers(IPPs)own 9,995 MW or 75%of the 13.4 GW of new wind capacity

241、installed in the United States in 2021(Figure 22,right pie chart).Investor-owned utilities(IOUs)most notably Pacificorp(589 MW),AEPs PSO and SWEPCO(486 MW),the Empire District Electric Company(450 MW),and Xcel Energy(436 MW),but including ten IOUs in allinstalled a total of 3,418 MW(25%).Of the cumu

242、lative installed wind power capacity at the end of 2021(Figure 22,left chart),IPPs own 80%and utilities own 18%(17%IOU and 1%publicly owned utility,or POU),with the remaining 1%falling into the“other”category of projects owned by neither IPPs nor utilities(e.g.,owned by towns,schools,businesses,farm

243、ers).20 20 Many of the“other”projects,along with some IPP-and POU-owned projects,might also be considered“community wind”projects that are owned by or benefit one or more members of the local community to a greater extent than typically occurs with a commercial wind project.0%20%40%60%80%100%Blades

244、and HubsWind TowersNacelle AssemblyDomestic Content1525%85%5570%Land-Based Wind Market Report 22 Source:Berkeley Lab estimates based on ACP Figure 22.Cumulative and 2021 wind power capacity categorized by owner type Direct retail sales and merchant offtake arrangements for wind,in combination,matche

245、d or surpassed long-term contracted wind sales to utilities in 2021 Electric utilities either own(25%)or buy the electricity from wind projects(19%)that,in total,represent 44%of the new capacity installed last year(with the 44%split between 32%IOU and 12%POUFigure 23,right pie chart).On a cumulative

246、 basis,utilities own(18%)or buy(42%)power from 60%of all wind power capacity installed in the United States(with the 60%split between 42%IOU and 18%POU,with the POU category including community choice aggregators(CCAs).Direct retail purchasers of wind power,including a diverse and growing set of cor

247、porate and non-corporate offtakers,are supporting at least 35%of the new wind power capacity installed in the United States in 2021(and 13%of cumulative wind power capacity).Such purchasers historically have spanned a wide range of organizations,from technology companies,retailers,finance,and teleco

248、mmunication firms to governments and universities.Merchant/quasi-merchant projects accounted for at least 7%of all new 2021 capacity and 20%of cumulative capacity.21 Finally,power marketersdefined here to include commercial intermediaries that purchase power under contract and then resell that power

249、 to others22are buying at least the remaining 2%of new 2021 wind capacity and 5%of cumulative capacity.We qualify the level of support from these non-utility offtakers as“at least”because it is likely that much of the 1.5 GW of 2021 capacity that has not yet disclosed an offtaker is being sold to co

250、rporate buyers,power marketers,or into merchant arrangements,rather than to utilities.21 Merchant/quasi-merchant projects are those whose electricity sales revenue is tied to short-term contracts and/or wholesale spot electricity market prices(with the resulting price risk commonly hedged over a 10-

251、to 12-year period),rather than being locked in through a long-term PPA.Most of these projects are located within ERCOT,though there are some merchant/quasi-merchant projects within other markets,including PJM,MISO,SPP,and NYISO.Associated hedges are often structured as a“fixed-for-floating”power pri

252、ce swapa purely financial arrangement whereby the wind power project swaps the“floating”revenue stream that it earns from spot power sales for a“fixed”revenue stream based on an agreed-upon strike price with the swap counterparty.22 These intermediaries include the wholesale marketing affiliates of

253、large IOUs,which may buy wind on behalf of their load-serving affiliates.0%20%40%60%80%100%22004200620082001620182020%of Cumulative Installed CapacityInvestor-Owned Utility(IOU)Independent Power Producer(IPP)Publicly Owned Utility(POU)OtherIPP:9,995 MWIOU:3,418 MW2021 Capacity

254、byOwner TypeLand-Based Wind Market Report 23 Source:Berkeley Lab estimates based on ACP Figure 23.Cumulative and 2021 wind power capacity categorized by power offtake arrangement 0%20%40%60%80%100%22004200620082001620182020%of Cumulative Installed CapacityDirect RetailMerchant/

255、Quasi-MerchantPower MarketerOn-SitePOUIOUIOU:4,319 MWRetail:4,734 MWMerchant:955 MWPower Marketer:280 MWPOU:1,631 MW2021 Capacity byOfftake TypeUndisclosed:1,494 MWLand-Based Wind Market Report 24 4 Technology Trends Turbine capacity,rotor diameter,and hub height have all increased significantly ove

256、r the long term The average nameplate capacity of newly installed wind turbines in the United States in 2021 was 3.0 MW,9%larger than in 2020 and up 319%since 19981999(Figure 24).23 The average hub height of turbines installed in 2021 was 93.9 meters,4%larger than in 2020 and up 66%since 19981999.Th

257、e average rotor diameter in 2021 was 127.5 meters,2%larger than in 2020 and up 164%since 19981999.Trends in rotor scaling in particular,but also hub height,are two of several factors impacting the project-level capacity factors highlighted later in this report.Sources:ACP,Berkeley Lab Figure 24.Aver

258、age turbine nameplate capacity,hub height,and rotor diameter for land-based wind projects Figure 25 presents these same trends since 2011,but with additional detail on the relative distribution of turbines with different capacities,hub heights,and rotor diameters.For example,2021 saw an increase in

259、the proportion of turbines installed in the 2.753.5 MW range,while the proportion of turbines at 3.5 MW or larger also increased.The percentage of turbines with hub heights larger than 100 meters increased in 2021,to 28%up from just 15%in 2020.Finally,the steady progression toward larger rotors cont

260、inued.In 2011,no turbines employed rotors that were 115 meters in diameter or larger,while 89%of newly installed turbines featured such rotors in 2021(and 23%of those were at least 130 meters).23 Figure 24 and a number of the other figures and tables included in this report combine data into both on

261、e-and two-year periods in order to avoid distortions related to small sample size in the PTC lapse years of 2000,2002,and 2004;although not a PTC lapse year,1998 is grouped with 1999 due to the small sample of 1998 projects.Though 2013 was a slow year for wind additions,it is shown separately here d

262、espite the small sample size.0204060801001201400.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.598990203200620082001620182020Capacity(MW)Height&Diameter(m)Nameplate capacityRotor diameterHub heightLand-Based Wind Market Report 25 Sources:ACP,Berkeley Lab Figure 25.Trends in turbine nameplate capacity,hub height,a

263、nd rotor diameter Turbines originally designed for lower wind speed sites dominate the market,but the trend towards lower specific power has reversed over the last two years The growth in the average swept area(in m2)of rotors has been especially rapid over the last two decades,outpacing growth in a

264、verage nameplate capacity(in W).This has resulted in a decline in the average“specific power”(in W/m2)among the U.S.turbine fleet over time,from 393 W/m2 among projects installed in 19981999 to 231 W/m2 among projects installed in 2021.However,as shown in Figure 26,the long-term decline in specific

265、power has reversed in recent years,with specific power rising slightly in both 2020 and 2021.All else equal,a lower specific power will boost capacity factors,because there is more swept rotor area available(resulting in greater energy capture)for each watt of rated turbine capacity.This means that

266、the generator is likely to run closer to or at its rated capacity more often.In general,turbines with low specific power were originally designed for lower wind speed sites,intended to maximize energy capture in areas where large-rotor machines would not be placed under excessive physical stress due

267、 to high or turbulent winds.As suggested in Figure 26 and as detailed later,however,such turbines are in widespread use in the United Stateseven in sites with relatively high wind speeds.The impact of lower specific-power turbines on project-level capacity factors is discussed in more detail in Chap

268、ter 5.Sources:ACP,Berkeley Lab Figure 26.Trends in turbine specific power 4060801001201400%20%40%60%80%100%2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021130 m115-130 m100-115 m100 mAverage Rotor diameter(m)%of Turbinesaverage7075808590950%20%40%60%80%100%2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021100 m90100 m8090 m80 mAverage Hub

269、 height(m)%of Turbinesaverage0.51.01.52.02.53.00%20%40%60%80%100%2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 20213.5 MW2.753.5 MW2.02.75 MW2.0 MWAverage Capacity(MW)%of turbinesaverage03504000%20%40%60%80%100%989902032006200820050300350250300200250180200Average Specific power(W/m2)aver

270、age%of TurbinesLand-Based Wind Market Report 26 Wind turbines were deployed in somewhat lower wind-speed sites in 2021 than in the previous seven years Figure 27 shows the long-term average wind resource at wind project sites,by commercial operation date.The figure depicts both the long-term site-av

271、erage wind speed(in meters per second)at 100 meters for projects installed in each year(right scale)and an index of wind resource quality at 100 meters(left scale).24 Wind plants that came online in 2021 are locatedon averageat sites with an estimated long-term average 100-meter wind speed of 8.0 me

272、ters per second(m/s).This is the lowest average site wind speed in the last eight years.Federal Aviation Administration(FAA)and industry data on projects that are“under construction,”in“advanced development,”“pending,”or“proposed”suggest that the sites likely to be built out over the several years w

273、ill,on average,have even lower long-term average wind speeds.25 Trends in the wind resource quality indexwhich represents estimates of the gross capacity factor for each turbine location,indexed to the 19981999 installationsare broadly similar.These trends signal changes in site-average wind speeds

274、at a common reference height of 100 meters.Increasing hub heights over this period,thereby accessing higher wind speeds,help to partially offset these trends in 100-meter wind speeds and resource quality.Several factors could have driven these observed trends in average site quality at 100 meters.Fi

275、rst,the availability of low-wind-speed turbines that feature lower specific power have enabled the economic build-out of lower-wind-speed sites.Second,transmission constraints(or other siting constraints,or even just regionally differentiated wholesale electricity prices)may have,over time,increasin

276、gly focused developer attention on those projects in their pipeline that have access to transmission(or higher-priced markets,or readily available sites without long permitting times),even if located in somewhat lower wind resource sites.The build-out of new transmission(for example,the completion o

277、f major transmission additions in West Texas in 2013),however,may at times have offered the chance to install new projects in more energetic sites.Other forms of federal and/or state policy could also play a role.For example,wind projects built in the four-year period from 2009 through 2012 were abl

278、e to access a 30%cash grant(or ITC)in lieu of the PTC.Many projects availed themselves of this incentive and,because the dollar amount of the grant(or ITC)was not dependent on how much electricity a project generates,it is possible that developers also seized this limited opportunity to build out th

279、e less-energetic sites in their development pipelines.Finally,state policies sometimes motivate in-state or in-region wind development in lower wind resource regimes.24 The wind resource quality index is based on site estimates of gross capacity factor at 100 meters by AWS Truepower.A single,common

280、wind turbine power curve is used across all sites and timeframes in this case,and no losses are assumed.The values are indexed to projects built in 19981999.Further details are found in the Appendix.A benefit of this wind resource quality index is that changes in the index value will better approxim

281、ate expected changes in actual wind project performance than will changes in average annual wind speed.25“Under construction”turbines are part of a project where construction has begun,but the project has not yet been commissioned.Turbines in“advanced development”have one of the following in place:a

282、 signed PPA(or similar long-term contract),a firm turbine order,or an announcement to proceed under utility ownership,indicating a high-likelihood that they will be built.“Pending”turbines are those that have received a“No Hazard”determination by the FAA and are not set to expire for another 18 mont

283、hs,while“proposed”turbines have not yet received any determination.Pending and proposed turbines may not all ultimately be built.However,analysis of past data suggests that FAA pending and proposed turbines offer a reasonable proxy for turbines built in subsequent years.Land-Based Wind Market Report

284、 27 Sources:ACP,Berkeley Lab,AWS Truepower,FAA Obstacle Evaluation/Airport Airspace Analysis files Figure 27.Wind resource quality at 100 meter height by year of installation Low-specific-power turbines are deployed on a widespread basis;taller towers are seeing increased use in a wider variety of s

285、ites One might expect that the increasing market share of low-specific-power turbines(defined here as turbines with specific power 100m)still tend to be most concentrated within the upper Midwest and Northeast regions,two regions known to have higher-than-average wind shear(i.e.,greater increases in

286、 wind speed with height),which makes taller towers more economical.Land-Based Wind Market Report 29 Sources:ACP,U.S.Wind Turbine Database,AWS Truepower,Berkeley Lab Figure 29:Location of tall tower turbine installations:all U.S.wind plants Wind projects planned for the near future are poised to cont

287、inue the trend of ever-taller turbines FAA data on total proposed turbine heights(from ground to blade tip extended directly overhead)in permit applications are reported in Figure 30.Note that these data represent total turbine height or“tip height”not hub heightand include the combined effect of bo

288、th the tower and half the rotor.Figure 30 shows the average FAA tip height,along with the distribution,for actual 2021 installations as well as turbines under construction,in advanced development,pending,and proposed.26 Average tip heights for projects that came online in 2021 are 517 feet(158 meter

289、s),and seem destined to climb higher in the next few years,reaching an average of 643 feet(196 meters)among the“proposed”turbines.The tallest turbines in the permitting process are over 750 feet(229 meters),while turbines of at least 650 feet appear likely to be installed in every region of the Unit

290、ed States(Figure 31).26 Turbine heights reported in FAA permit applications represent the maximum height and can differ from what is ultimately installed.Historically,however,the FAA permit datasets have strongly conformed to subsequent actual installations on average.Land-Based Wind Market Report 3

291、0 Sources:ACP,FAA files,Berkeley Lab Figure 30.Total turbine heights proposed in FAA applications,over time Note:Figure includes FAA data on under-construction,advanced development,pending,and proposed turbines Sources:FAA Obstacle Evaluation/Airport Airspace Analysis files,AWS Truepower,ACP,Berkele

292、y Lab Figure 31.Total turbine heights proposed in FAA applications,by location 4505005506006507000%20%40%60%80%100%2021 projectsUnder const.Adv.dev.PendingProposed750 ft650750 ft550650 ft450550 ft450 ftAverage:right axis%of turbinesAverage Total height(feet)Land-Based Wind Market Report 31 In 2021,t

293、welve wind projects were partially repowered,most of which now feature significantly larger rotors and lower specific power ratings The trend of partial wind project repowering continued in 2021,albeit at a slower pace,and involved replacing major components of turbines with more-advanced technology

294、 to increase energy production,extend project life,and access favorable tax incentives.In 2021,12 projects were partially repowered,involving 769 turbines that totaled 1.6 GW prior to repowering.Retrofitted turbines ranged in age from 9 to 16 years old;the median was 10 years.The 1.6 GW of retrofitt

295、ed turbines in 2021 is a decline from the previous two years,when roughly 3 GW were retrofitted each year(Figure 32).Sources:ACP,Berkeley Lab,turbine manufacturers Figure 32.Annual amount of partially repowered wind power capacity and number of turbines The most common retrofit in 2021 was the repla

296、cement of shorter with longer blades,but changes in turbine nameplate capacity were also common.Overall,the average turbine nameplate capacity of the retrofitted projects increased modestly,but rotor diameters strongly increased(Figure 33).A very small number of the turbines saw changes in hub heigh

297、ts.With the relatively small change in capacity but the larger change in rotor diameter,these retrofits drove a significant decrease in average specific power.01,0002,0003,0004,000200202021Original capacity(MW)Added capacity(MW)Number of turbines(#)Project Capacity(MW)and Numer of Turbine

298、s(#)Land-Based Wind Market Report 32 Sources:ACP,Berkeley Lab,turbine manufacturers Figure 33.Change in average physical specifications of all turbines that were partially repowered in 2021 82.082.191.430350020406080100OriginalRetrofittedOriginalRetrofittedOriginalRetrofittedHu

299、b HeightRotor DiameterSpecific Power left axisSpecific power(W/m2)82.082.191.4114.02.152.450.00.40.81.21.62.02.42.8020406080100120140OriginalRetrofittedOriginalRetrofittedOriginalRetrofittedHub HeightRotor DiameterCapacityHub height&rotor diameter(m)Capacity(MW)Land-Based Wind Market Report 33 5 Per

300、formance Trends The average capacity factor in 2021 was 35%on a fleet-wide basis and 39%among wind projects built in recent years Following the previous discussion of technology trends,this chapter presents data from a compilation of project-level capacity factors.27 The full data sample consists of

301、 989 wind projects built between 1998 and 2020 and totaling 103.1 GW.Excluded from this assessment are older projects installed prior to 1998.In addition,projects that either partially or fully repowered in 2021 are excluded from the 2021 capacity factor sample,given that they were at least partly o

302、ffline during a portion of the year.Unless otherwise noted,all capacity factors in this chapter are reported on an as-observed and unadjusted basis(i.e.,after any losses from curtailment,less-than-full availability,wake effects,ice or soil on blades,etc.).When looking at performance degradation over

303、 time,however,adjustments are made for inter-annual variability in the wind resource.To start,Figure 34 shows both individual project and average capacity factors in 2021,broken out by commercial operation date.28 Projects built in 2021 are excluded,as full-year performance data are not yet availabl

304、e for those projects.From left to right,Figure 34 shows an increase in weighted-average 2021 capacity factors when moving from projects installed in the 19982001 period to those installed in the 20042005 period.Subsequent project vintages through 2011 show little if any improvement in average capaci

305、ty factors recorded in 2021.This pattern of stagnation is broken by projects installed in 20122013,and even more so by those that achieved commercial operations in 20142020.29 The average 2021 capacity factor among projects built from 2014 to 2020 was 39%,compared to an average of 26%among all proje

306、cts built from 2004 to 2011,and 19%among all projects built from 1998 to 2001.Cumulative,fleet-wide performance has also increased over time,growing from under 27%in 1999(not shown)to 35%in 2021(shown in Figure 34).The improvement in capacity factor among more-recently built projects is impacted by

307、several factors that are explored later,including project location and the quality of the wind resource at each site,turbine scaling and design,and performance degradation over time.The 2021 capacity factor for projects built most recently,in 2020,was 38%,somewhat lower than for projects built from

308、2014 to 2020 and continuing a capacity factor decline that began with wind projects built in 2019.27 Capacity factor is a measure of the actual energy generated by a project over a given timeframe(typically annually)relative to the maximum possible amount of energy that could have been generated ove

309、r that same timeframe if the project had been operating at full capacity the entire time.28 Focusing on capacity factors in a single year,2021,controls(at least loosely)for time-varying influences such as the degree of wind power curtailment or inter-annual variability in the strength of the wind re

310、source.But it also means that the absolute capacity factors shown in Figure 33 may not be representative over longer terms if 2021 was not a representative year in terms of curtailment or the strength of the wind resource(though,as noted later,2021 was a fairly average wind year overall).29 The 2021

311、 capacity factor of projects that were built in 2020 may be biased low,due to possible first-year“teething”issues,as projects may take a few months to achieve normal,steady-state production after first achieving commercial operations.Land-Based Wind Market Report 34 Sources:EIA,FERC,Berkeley Lab Fig

312、ure 34.Calendar year 2021 capacity factors by commercial operation date State and regional variations in capacity factors reflect the strength of the wind resource;capacity factors are highest in the central part of the country The project-level spread in capacity factors shown in Figure 34 is enorm

313、ous,with capacity factors in 2021 ranging from a minimum of 21%to a maximum of 52%among those projects built in 2020.Some of the spreadfor projects built in 2020 and earlieris attributable to regional variations in average wind resource quality.Figure 35 includes data on the full sample of projects

314、built from 1998 through 2020 and also a subset of newer projects built from 2016 through 2020,and shows average state-level capacity factors in 2021.The overall range runs from 12%46%,with considerably higher capacity factors in the interior of the countrywhere the wind resource is the strongest.Not

315、e:States shaded in white have no projects in full sample(left)or in newer sample(right)Sources:EIA,FERC,Berkeley Lab Figure 35.Average calendar year 2021 capacity factor by state 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%--05200620072008200920000192020Capacity Fact

316、or in 2021Commercial Operation Year(COD Year)Individual projects(by COD year)Generation-weighted average(by COD year)Fleet-wide average(across all COD years)Land-Based Wind Market Report 35 Turbine design and site characteristics influence performance,with declining specific power leading to sizable

317、 increases in capacity factor over the long term The trends in average capacity factor by commercial operation date seen in Figure 34 can largely be explained by several underlying influences described in Chapter 4 and shown again in Figure 36.First,as documented in Chapter 4,there has been a trend

318、toward lower specific power and higher hub heights.These two drivers are shown again in Figure 36 in index form,relative to projects built in 19981999(with specific power shown in the inverse,to correlate with capacity factor movements).All else equal,a lower specific power will boost capacity facto

319、rs,because there is more swept rotor area available(resulting in greater energy capture)for each watt of rated turbine capacity.Meanwhile,increasing turbine hub heights generally helps the rotor access higher wind speeds.Second,and potentially counterbalancing these drivers,there has been a tendency

320、 to build new wind projects in areas that feature lower average wind speeds,30 especially among projects installed from 2009 through 2012 as shown by the wind resource quality index in Figure 36.This trend reversed course in 2013 and 2014,but has since drifted lower once again(these wind resource tr

321、ends are easier to see in Figure 27,where the y-axis scale is less-expansive).Finally,as shown later,two other drivers might include project age(given the possible degradation in performance among older projects)and increasing curtailment over the past few years(curtailment is baked into the capacit

322、y factors shown throughout this chapter).Note:In order to have all three indices be directionally consistent with their influence on capacity factor,this figure indexes the inverse of specific power(i.e.,a decline in specific power causes the index to increase rather than decrease).Sources:EIA,FERC,

323、Berkeley Lab Figure 36.2021 capacity factors and various drivers by commercial operation date 30 As described earlier relating to Figure 27(with further details in the Appendix),estimates of wind resource quality are based on site estimates of gross capacity factor at 100 meters,as derived from nati

324、onwide wind resource maps created for NREL by AWS Truepower.Those site estimates are indexed to projects built in 19981999.7552000%10%20%30%40%50%--052006200720082009200001920202021Commercial Operation Year(COD Year)Index of Capacit

325、y Factor Influences(199899=100)Average Capacity Factor in 2021Built wind resource quality at 100mBuilt turbine hub heightCapacity factorInverse of built specific powerLand-Based Wind Market Report 36 In Figure 36,the significant improvement in average 2021 capacity factors from among those projects

326、built in 19982001 to those built in 20042005 is driven by both an increase in hub height and a decline in specific power,despite a shift toward somewhat lower-quality wind resource sites.The stagnation in average capacity factors that subsequently persists through 2011-vintage projects reflects rela

327、tively flat trends in both hub height and specific power,coupled with an ongoing decline in wind resource quality at built sites.The sharp increase in average capacity factors among projects built after 2011 is driven by a steep reduction in average specific power coupled withfor a timea marked impr

328、ovement in the quality of wind resource sites.Average hub height increased modestly over this period.Finally,projects built most recently have somewhat lower 2021 capacity factors,perhaps due in part to teething issues that often confront projects in their first years but also due to a slight rise i

329、n specific power and a continuing move towards lower-quality wind resource sites.Looking ahead to 2022,projects with commercial operation dates in 2021 could possibly record lower capacity factors on average than those built in 2020,in light of a slight increase in average specific power coupled wit

330、h a slight decline in average site quality.To help disentangle the primary and sometimes competing influences of turbine design evolution and wind resource quality on capacity factor,Figure 37 controls for each.Across the x-axis,projects built from 2014 to2020 are grouped into four different categor

331、ies,depending on the wind resource quality estimated for each site.Within each wind resource category,projects are further differentiated by their specific power.As would be expected,projects sited in higher wind speed areas generally realized higher capacity factors in 2021 than those in lower wind

332、 speed areas,regardless of specific power.Likewise,within the three higher wind resource categories in particular,projects that fall into a lower specific power range realized higher capacity factors in 2021 than those in a higher specific power range.0%10%20%30%40%50%LowerMediumHigherHighestEstimat

333、ed Wind Resource Quality at SiteAverage Capacity Factor in 2021(projects built from 2014 to 2020)- MW.$1,349$1,384$1,396$1,504$1,600 ERCOTWest(non-ISO)PJMSPPMISO05001,0001,5002,000Installed Cost of 2021 Projects(2021$/kW)Land-Based Wind Market Report 44 Source:Berkeley Lab Figure 45.Installed wind power project costs by project size:2020 and 2021 projects Operations and main