1、Tenoris数据分析：数据分析：美国培育钻零售市场的发展阶段美国培育钻零售市场的发展阶段和驱动因素和驱动因素Tenoris Data Analysis:Development Stages and Drivers of the U.S.Lab-Grown Diamond Retail Market汪立亭汪立亭 Liting Wang 李宏科李宏科 Hongke Li 许樱之许樱之 Yingzhi Xu 张若白张若白 Ruobai Zhang 2022年年11月月27日日本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他

2、各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录。(Pleasesee appendix for English translation of the disclaimer)Equity Asia Research2概览概览For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest

3、 full report on our website at 1.珠宝首饰：珠宝首饰：10M22美国钻石和珠宝零售额同比降美国钻石和珠宝零售额同比降10%2.订婚戒指：订婚戒指：2500-4999美元是主力价格带，美元是主力价格带，1-7M22中端消费疲软中端消费疲软3.培育钻：品质优化、持续渗透培育钻：品质优化、持续渗透4.渠道：零售环节强势，渠道驱动向需求驱动转变渠道：零售环节强势，渠道驱动向需求驱动转变5.美国消费市场跟踪：美国消费市场跟踪：2H22需求降温，关注年底趋势扭转迹象需求降温，关注年底趋势扭转迹象6.风险提示风险提示FYkYaXvZlWkWsQpNmO9PaO8OoMrRnP

4、pNkPrQoPiNsQxPbRmNrRwMnPpPwMmQpP3摘要摘要For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 根据钻石观察公众号根据钻石观察公众号，分析师分析师Edahn Golan和和Chris Casey联合创立的珠宝行业咨询公司联合创立的珠宝行业咨询公司Tenoris.bi.统计了全美统计了全美1200家专

5、业珠宝店铺的经营数据家专业珠宝店铺的经营数据，我们取得了我们取得了其统计的部分数据其统计的部分数据，对美国珠宝首饰行业零售端发展进行了分析整理对美国珠宝首饰行业零售端发展进行了分析整理，主要结论有；主要结论有；（1）10M22美国钻石和珠宝零售额同比降10%：10月美国钻石和珠宝销售额同比降10%，我们判断主因消费者需求下滑。品类：1-7M22，戒指销量、销售额占比各超30%、接近40%，是最大品类。材质：钻石是样本店使用最多的宝石，1-7M22使用钻石的珠宝首饰销量占比约46%、销售额占比约77%。（2）订婚戒指销售情况概览：1-7M22订婚戒指销量略低于21年同期。销量结构：1-7M22，

6、价格在1500-4999美元的订婚戒指销量占比超50%，250-2499美元价格带的销量低于或持平整体增速，我们判断主因通胀和疫情对中端消费影响较大。（3）培育钻持续渗透、品质优化：10M22样本店培育钻销售额+41.8%，天然钻销售额则-25.4%。1-8M22，培育钻订婚戒指销量同比+78%，销量、销售额渗透率分别为10.5%、9.6%（21年销售额渗透率为6%），渗透迅速。价格结构：1-7M22培育钻与天然钻订婚戒指均主要集中在1500-4999美元区间。品质：培育钻订婚戒指整体重量更大、颜色和净度更优、异形培育钻受到消费者喜爱。（4）渠道驱动向需求驱动转变：渠道利润和销售模式：据Eda

7、hn Golan披露，受供需关系影响，22年以来培育钻批发价下降，而零售商通过压低批发价仍实现了毛利率的上升，1-7M22样本店售出培育钻订婚戒指的寄售比例约28%，7M22期末库存中培育钻订婚戒指的寄售比例约52%。我们认为渠道利润和寄售模式的低风险性是零售商推广培育钻的动力。库存和展望：2H21零售商进购培育订婚戒指数量逐月上升，但采购量在22年呈下降趋势，结合10M22印度培育钻进口减少、出口增长的态势，我们判断前期渠道扩张推动了培育钻的增长，目前处于库存消化进程中，零售商采购和销售之间的差距正在缩小，未来消费者需求将成为零售商采购的主要动力。（5）美国2H22需求降温，关注年底积极变化

8、：据钻石观察公众号，短期看，多因素影响了钻石需求；长期看，钻石行业整体发展趋势积极。年底美国消费市场：据钻石观察公众号援引德勤零售调查报告，受访者预期22年年底节假日期间人均消费额约为1455美元，与去年同期基本持平。我们认为，从消费者调查结果看，消费需求的下落势头有得到遏制的趋势，年底消费旺季的表现仍然值得期待。观点：观点：我们认为，从以上数据来看，培育钻在消费者端的渗透仍在持续，需求仍然旺盛；库存方面，样本店的渠道铺货阶段进入尾声，未来零售商的采购计划将主要取决于消费者需求。结合1-10M22培育钻销售额的高增长和年底下游消费市场的需求趋势，预计零售商的采购额也将随着销量的增加而回升。风险

9、提示：风险提示：样本代表性不足风险；行业变化较快风险；下游消费能力下滑风险；宏观经济衰退风险。4For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 10M22印度培育钻切磨钻出口同比印度培育钻切磨钻出口同比+22%据印度GJEPC，10M22印度进口培育钻毛坯0.5亿美元-47%、出口培育钻切磨钻1.8亿美元+22%，进口端增速

10、下滑，出口端增速表现稳定较好。我们认为，10M22进口和出口增速的背离反映出培育钻市场演进中复杂的一面，我们将从零售商角度探讨美国培育钻销售的情况，分析这一现象的成因和发展脉络。图图 印度培育钻切磨钻出口额及增速印度培育钻切磨钻出口额及增速资料来源：GJEPC，HTI-200%0%200%400%600%800%0501001502001M17 9M17 5M18 1M19 9M19 5M20 1M21 9M21 5M22印度切磨培育钻石出口额（百万美元，左轴）月度同比（%，右轴）-300%-100%100%300%500%700%05001M188M183M19 10M

11、19 5M20 12M20 7M212M229M22印度培育钻毛坯进口额（百万美元，左轴）月度同比（%，右轴）图图 印度培育钻毛坯进口额及增速印度培育钻毛坯进口额及增速5For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 1.珠宝首饰：珠宝首饰：10M22美国钻石和珠宝零售额同比降美国钻石和珠宝零售额同比降10%整体销售表现：整

12、体销售表现：22年1-7月，样本店成品珠宝首饰销售额同比增加9.1%，销量同比下降3.9%，除12月外，样本店单月合计销售额在2亿美元左右、单月销量150万个左右。7月，成品珠宝销售额同比下降6.6%、销量下降13.5%。22年1-5月，消费者需求有所增长，6月起，需求则有所减弱。珠宝零售呈现一定季节性，从2020、2021年销售趋势来看，1-11月样本店珠宝首饰销售额和销量趋势较平稳，12月明显上升，12月销量和销售额均大致相当于正常月份的2倍，为下游零售的旺季。10M22，美国专业珠宝商钻石和珠宝销售额同比下降11%。图图 2020-2022年年7月珠宝首饰销售额（亿美元）月珠宝首饰销售额

13、（亿美元）图图 2020-2022年年7月珠宝首饰销售量（个）月珠宝首饰销售量（个）资料来源：Tenoris.bi.，HTI6For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 珠宝零售额：珠宝零售额：2021年美国珠宝零售额全年增速较高，11M21起，增速有所回落，9M22，珠宝首饰零售额同比下降4%，10M22同比降幅达10

14、%，主因消费者需求减弱。资料来源：Tenoris.bi.，HTI图图 2020-2022年年10月美国钻石和珠宝零售额同比增幅月美国钻石和珠宝零售额同比增幅202127%34%116%715%156%55%40%32%28%34%55%35%20%20%12%18%2%-2%-7%4%-4%-10%1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月20221.珠宝首饰：珠宝首饰：10M22美国钻石和珠宝零售额同比降美国钻石和珠宝零售额同比降10%7For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologie

15、s and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 资料来源：Tenoris.bi.，HTI珠宝首饰市场：珠宝首饰市场：戒指销量及销售额占比最高戒指销量及销售额占比最高样本店的珠宝首饰的主要包括戒指、耳饰、项链、手链、吊坠/胸针、钻石以及未分类珠宝。22年1-7月，戒指在珠宝首饰中的销量和销售额占比均排在首位，分别为35%、40%，均价为1817美元（同比增5.4%），高于所有珠宝首饰的均价1607美元；钻石类别销量占比为4%，

16、而均价高达8296美元，使其销售额占比达23%。图图 22年年1-7月不同种类珠宝销量占比月不同种类珠宝销量占比图图 22年年1-7月不同种类珠宝销售额占比月不同种类珠宝销售额占比戒指35%钻石4%未分类珠宝3%项链20%手链9%吊坠/胸针12%耳饰17%戒指40%钻石23%未分类珠宝2%项链10%手链8%吊坠/胸针4%耳饰13%1.珠宝首饰：珠宝首饰：10M22美国钻石和珠宝零售额同比降美国钻石和珠宝零售额同比降10%8For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all

17、HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 资料来源：Tenoris.bi.，HTI珠宝首饰市场：珠宝首饰市场：9M22高端珠宝首饰市场表现强劲高端珠宝首饰市场表现强劲按不同价格区间划分，22年1-7月，价格在5-499美元的珠宝销量占比近50%。据Tenoris.bi.数据，22年9月精品珠宝（fine jewelry）销售整体下滑（销量同比降9.1%，销售额同比降4.3%）。高端市场则表现强劲，在5000-12999美元价格区间内的精品首饰销量同比增2.0%、销售额同比增2.3%，超过1

18、0万美元的精品首饰销量同比增33%、销售额同比增51%。我们判断，相比普通珠宝的受众中产阶级、高端珠宝的受众高收入群体受到通胀影响较小，因此高端珠宝的销售表现更佳。图图 22年年1-7月不同价格区间珠宝销量占比月不同价格区间珠宝销量占比$5-$9917%$100-$24916%$250-$49916%$500-$7499%$750-$9998%$1000-$149910%$1500-$249910%$2500-$49998%$5000及以上6%1.珠宝首饰：珠宝首饰：10M22美国钻石和珠宝零售额同比降美国钻石和珠宝零售额同比降10%9For full disclosure of risks,

19、valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 注：销售额占比为近似数，可能有最大1%的误差。无宝石为”none”的翻译。资料来源：Tenoris.bi.，HTI珠宝首饰市场：珠宝首饰市场：钻石材质的珠宝销量及销售额占比最高珠宝首饰的主要材质包括钻石、珍珠等宝石。22年1-7月，以钻石为主要宝石的珠宝销量占比达45.7%，销售额占比达77%，是样本店主要销售额来源。钻石46%无宝石

20、36%珍珠3%其他15%图图 22年年1-7月不同主宝石类型的珠宝销量占比月不同主宝石类型的珠宝销量占比图图 22年年1-7月不同主宝石类型的珠宝销售额占比月不同主宝石类型的珠宝销售额占比钻石77%无宝石12%其他11%1.珠宝首饰：珠宝首饰：10M22美国钻石和珠宝零售额同比降美国钻石和珠宝零售额同比降10%10For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report

21、 on our website at 2.订婚戒指：订婚戒指：2500-4999美元是主力价格带，美元是主力价格带，1-7M22中端消费疲软中端消费疲软资料来源：Tenoris.bi.，HTI订婚戒指销售表现：订婚戒指销售表现：22年1-7月，订婚戒指销售量略低于21年同期，样本店月销量接近5000个，我们判断，销售量低于21年同期的主要原因是下游需求减弱。图图 2020-2022年年7月订婚戒指销售量趋势月订婚戒指销售量趋势11For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on

22、all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 2.订婚戒指：订婚戒指：2500-4999美元是主力价格带，美元是主力价格带，1-7M22中端消费疲软中端消费疲软资料来源：Tenoris.bi.，HTI订婚戒指销售表现：订婚戒指销售表现：22年1-7月，订婚戒指均价为4127美元，同比+4.6%，毛利率为49.7%，同比小幅提升。按不同价格区间划分，价格在1500-2499美元、2500-4999美元的订婚戒指销售量合计占比超过50%，5-249美元、2500-4999美元价格区间的销量

23、同比增速超过整体水平，250-2499美元价格带的销量则低于或持平整体增速，我们判断，这也是通胀和疫情影响下中端消费减弱的结果，中等价位产品市场整体需求减弱，消费部分流向低价位商品，高端商品的需求受影响较小，销售表现也较好。$5-$990%$100-$2491%$250-$4993%$500-$7495%$750-$9997%$1000-$149915%$1500-$249925%$2500-$499927%$5000及以上17%图图 22年年1-7月不同价格区间订婚戒指销售量占比月不同价格区间订婚戒指销售量占比12For full disclosure of risks,valuation

24、methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 2.订婚戒指：订婚戒指：2500-4999美元是主力价格带，美元是主力价格带，1-7M22中端消费疲软中端消费疲软资料来源：Tenoris.bi.，HTI钻石订婚戒指销售表现：钻石订婚戒指销售表现：22年1-8月，钻石订婚戒指销售量整体较为平稳，但低于21年同期。我们判断，销售量低于21年同期的主因在于下游需求减弱。0k5k10k图图 2020-2022

25、年年8月钻石订婚戒指销售量趋势月钻石订婚戒指销售量趋势13For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 3.培育钻培育钻：品质优化、持续渗透：品质优化、持续渗透资料来源：Tenoris.bi.，HTI整体市场：整体市场：据Edahn Golan，10月培育钻销售额同比上升41.8%，1-10月同比增长超37%；同时，10M

26、22天然钻销售额同比下降25.4%，1-10月下降5.2%。我们认为，在天然钻需求下滑的情况下，培育钻的高增长表现印证了消费者对培育钻的强韧需求。订婚戒指领域：培育钻销量迅速增长订婚戒指领域：培育钻销量迅速增长，均价达天然钻均价达天然钻86.8%销量：销量：1-8M22，培育钻订婚戒指销量同比+78%。培育钻订婚戒指的销量市占率为10.5%。均价方面均价方面，1-8M22，培育钻订婚戒指均价3916美元（同比+14.3%）。培育钻订婚戒指销售额渗透率9.6%（21年渗透率为6%），培育钻在订婚戒指类别中迅速渗透。0400800图图 2020-2022年年8月月培育培育钻订婚戒指销钻订婚戒指销量

27、（个）量（个）14For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 3.培育钻培育钻：品质优化、持续渗透：品质优化、持续渗透资料来源：Tenoris.bi.，HTI订婚戒指领域：培育钻销量迅速增长订婚戒指领域：培育钻销量迅速增长，均价达天然钻均价达天然钻86.8%销量：销量：1-8M22，天然钻订婚戒指销量同比下降20%，销量

28、市占率为89.5%。价格：价格：1-8M22，天然钻订婚戒指均价4512美元（同比+7.2%），销售额市占率为90.4%。培育钻订婚戒指均价相当于天然钻的86.79%，二者价格相近。0k4k8k图图 2020-2022年年8月天然钻订婚戒指销月天然钻订婚戒指销量（个）量（个）15For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at

29、 3.培育钻培育钻：品质优化、持续渗透：品质优化、持续渗透资料来源：Tenoris.bi.，HTI培育钻订婚戒指与天然钻订婚戒指价格区间分布相似培育钻订婚戒指与天然钻订婚戒指价格区间分布相似。天然钻订婚戒指价格区间主要集中在$1500-$2499（26%）、$2500-$4999（28%）；培育钻钻订婚戒指价格区间也主要集中在$1500-$2499（25%）、$2500-$4999（39%）。在这两个价格区间的天然钻和培育钻订婚戒指合计占比均超过50%，但培育钻整体价格带更高，相比天然钻订婚戒指，消费者愿意为培育钻订婚戒指支付的价格并未大幅缩减。$5-$990%$100-$2490%$250-

30、$4990%$500-$7492%$750-$9993%$1000-$149910%$1500-$249925%$2500-$499939%$5000及以上21%图图 22年年1-7月月不同价格区间不同价格区间的天然钻订婚戒指销量占比的天然钻订婚戒指销量占比图图 22年年1-7月月不同价格区间不同价格区间的培育钻订婚戒指销量占比的培育钻订婚戒指销量占比$5-$990%$100-$2491%$250-$4992%$500-$7494%$750-$9997%$1000-$149915%$1500-$249926%$2500-$499928%$5000及以上18%16For full disclos

31、ure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 3.培育钻培育钻：品质优化、持续渗透：品质优化、持续渗透资料来源：Tenoris.bi.，HTI1-2.99克拉培育钻订婚戒指销量占比克拉培育钻订婚戒指销量占比67%。相比天然钻，培育钻订婚戒指整体重量更大，1克拉以下天然钻订婚戒指销量占比为63.8%，而1克拉以下培育钻订婚戒指的销量占比仅24.4%。1-2

32、.99克拉是培育钻订婚戒指的主要重量区间，这一区间的培育钻订婚戒指的合计销量占比为67%。图图 22年年1-7月月不同克拉重量区间下天然钻不同克拉重量区间下天然钻订婚戒指销量占比订婚戒指销量占比图图 22年年1-7月月不同克拉重量区间下不同克拉重量区间下培育培育钻钻订婚戒指销量占比订婚戒指销量占比0.0%0.3%0.5%0.4%0.6%1.5%2.2%1.0%8.3%8.5%1.1%33.5%14.4%19.1%5.7%2.3%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.1%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0.01-0.040.04-0.070.08-0.140.15-0.170.18-0.

33、220.23-0.290.30-0.390.40-0.490.50-0.690.70-0.890.90-0.991.00-1.491.50-1.992.00-2.993.00-3.994.00-4.995.00-5.996.00-6.997.00-7.998.00+0.5%1.4%3.6%1.6%3.6%6.3%9.2%5.2%15.9%12.6%3.9%20.0%6.7%6.1%2.0%0.6%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%0%5%10%15%20%25%0.01-0.040.04-0.070.08-0.140.15-0.170.18-0.220.23-0.290.30-0.390.40-

34、0.490.50-0.690.70-0.890.90-0.991.00-1.491.50-1.992.00-2.993.00-3.994.00-4.995.00-5.996.00-6.997.00-7.998.00+17For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 3.培育钻培育钻：品质优化、持续渗透：品质优化、持续渗透资

35、料来源：Tenoris.bi.，HTI培育钻相比天然钻颜色和净度更优培育钻相比天然钻颜色和净度更优，异形钻占比更大异形钻占比更大。1-7M22，培育钻订婚戒指中高质量钻石占比优于天然钻石，在颜色和净度方面表现更好；同时期天然钻订婚戒指中宝石形状为圆形的销量占比为64.70%，培育钻订婚戒指的圆钻占比60.80%，培育钻异形钻占比较天然钻更高。这与培育钻供给的优化趋势相吻合。钻石颜色IFVVS1VVS2VS1VS2SI1SI2I1I2I3D0.0%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.5%0.9%0.8%0.3%0.0%E0.0%0.0%0.2%0.5%0.6%1.1%1.1%0.4%0.0%F0.0%0

36、.1%0.1%0.4%1.0%1.3%1.7%0.8%0.0%G0.0%0.1%0.2%0.9%3.5%6.6%3.2%1.5%0.1%0.0%H0.1%0.1%0.9%4.8%16.0%8.5%3.6%0.6%I0.1%0.2%0.9%1.7%8.2%4.6%3.8%0.2%J0.0%0.1%0.2%0.7%1.1%2.3%2.1%3.4%0.1%K0.0%0.1%0.1%0.5%0.8%1.4%1.3%0.9%0.0%L0.0%0.0%0.2%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%M0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%总计总计0.1%0.7%1

37、.2%5.2%14.5%38.6%23.9%14.7%1.2%0.0%钻石颜色IFVVS1VVS2VS1VS2SI1SI2I1I2D0.2%0.5%2.4%1.5%1.2%0.9%0.1%E0.6%1.5%2.6%2.8%2.2%0.7%0.1%F0.1%0.8%1.2%4.0%5.0%3.7%0.8%-0.1%G1.3%4.1%5.3%3.8%1.3%0.1%H0.1%0.7%2.5%3.1%7.2%2.2%0.2%0.1%I0.2%1.6%1.9%2.9%2.8%0.2%J0.6%1.1%2.9%0.2%0.1%K0.2%0.6%18.9%0.1%L0.1%0.3%0.3%0.2%M0.2

38、%0.1%总计总计0.1%1.7%5.3%18.4%21.6%43.1%9.1%0.7%0.1%表表 1-7M22年天然钻订婚戒指颜色年天然钻订婚戒指颜色&净度净度表表 1-7M22年培育钻订婚戒指颜色年培育钻订婚戒指颜色&净度净度18For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 3.培育钻培育钻：品质优化、持续渗透：品质

39、优化、持续渗透资料来源：Tenoris.bi.，HTI2020至今，培育钻婚戒整体钻石向颜色更白、净度更高、形状更丰富方向发展；2020/2021/1-7M22培育钻订婚戒指中宝石形状为圆形的销量占比分别为70%/66%/61%，销售额占比分别为66%/64%/55%，圆钻销量和销售额占比下降，异形钻销量和销售额占比上升，消费者对异形钻的喜爱程度有所增加，我们认为，培育钻异形钻逐渐受到消费者欢迎，未来有望开辟出新的细分市场。钻石颜色VVS1VVS2VS1VS2SI1SI2I1I2D0.1%0.1%0.9%0.8%1.2%E0.3%0.8%2.6%1.1%0.7%0.4%F0.3%0.8%2.6

40、%1.2%1.5%0.1%G0.1%0.5%2.6%4.0%4.4%1.6%0.3%H0.1%0.7%2.5%4.9%15.9%3.4%0.1%0.1%I0.9%2.8%4.4%6.4%1.5%0.4%J0.1%2.5%3.3%9.8%2.3%0.1%K0.9%0.9%1.9%3.2%1.5%0.0%L0.0%0.1%M0.3%总计总计0.4%3.8%14.0%24.5%43.3%12.3%1.5%0.1%钻石颜色IFVVS1VVS2VS1VS2SI1SI2I1I2D0.1%0.7%1.1%1.1%1.4%0.3%0.1%E0.1%0.6%2.3%2.4%1.9%0.4%0.1%F0.1%0.

41、2%0.6%3.1%3.7%3.6%0.5%0.3%G0.1%0.7%2.6%4.5%3.6%0.4%0.1%H0.1%0.4%3.3%4.2%11.0%2.1%0.3%I0.1%0.7%1.8%3.0%4.5%4.1%0.2%J0.2%1.4%3.3%5.2%0.6%0.3%0.1%K0.6%1.1%13.5%0.1%0.1%L0.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%M0.2%总计总计0.1%0.7%3.9%16.3%23.7%44.9%8.6%1.7%0.1%表表 2020年年培育培育钻订婚戒指颜色钻订婚戒指颜色&净度净度表表 2021年培育钻订婚戒指颜色年培育钻订婚戒指颜色&净度净度19For

42、full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 4.渠道：零售环节强势，渠道驱动向需求驱动转变渠道：零售环节强势，渠道驱动向需求驱动转变资料来源：Edahn Golan，HTI22年以来培育钻批发价走低：年以来培育钻批发价走低：3Q22，培育钻批发价格降幅为6%-37%。其中1克拉钻石下降21.8%，2克拉钻石下降近33%，大克拉钻

43、石价格下降更快。10M22，培育钻均价同比下降4.4%。据Edahn Golan分析，这种现象的主因在于生产技术的改进使得大克拉钻石的产量不断增加，稀缺性下降，降价压力增大。此外，消费者预期培育钻的价格会更低，零售商对消费者价格需求做出反应，要求批发商降价，从而带来价格下调的压力。图图 3Q18-3Q22培育钻价格指数（按培育钻的平均批发成交价格计算；培育钻价格指数（按培育钻的平均批发成交价格计算；100=3Q18）20For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all H

44、TI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 4.渠道：零售环节强势，渠道驱动向需求驱动转变渠道：零售环节强势，渠道驱动向需求驱动转变资料来源：Edahn Golan，钻石观察公众号，HTI2020至至22年培育钻与天然钻批发价价差拉大：年培育钻与天然钻批发价价差拉大：9M22，美国零售商购买1克拉天然钻与培育钻之间平均批发价差扩大至76%；具体而言，根据钻石观察公众号，目前不同重量等级的天然钻与培育钻批发价格差在55%-84%之间，大克拉钻石价差更大。主因在于受到供求关系的影响，培育钻价值在受

45、到侵蚀。但另一方面，零售商的毛利率却并未受到影响，反而有所上升。据Edahn Golan，22年（截至10月30日）专业珠宝商培育钻销售的平均毛利率为52%，同比+4.2pct。主要原因在于零售商向批发商施压降低批发价格，成本下降的速度快于零售价下降的速度。55.06%73.58%80.05%83.44%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%0.50ct1.00ct2.00ct3.00ct图图 1克拉圆形天然钻与培育钻的批发价格趋势克拉圆形天然钻与培育钻的批发价格趋势图图 不同重量等级的天然钻与培育钻批发价格差不同重量等级的天然钻与培育钻批发价格差21For full di

46、sclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 4.渠道：零售环节强势，渠道驱动向需求驱动转变渠道：零售环节强势，渠道驱动向需求驱动转变资料来源：Tenoris.bi.，Edahn Golan，HTI珠宝零售毛利率：珠宝零售毛利率：培育钻的毛利率略高于天然钻，我们认为，这给零售商带来了推广培育钻的动力。2022年1至8月，培育钻裸钻的毛利率为51

47、.8%，高于天然钻裸钻毛利率35.8%；培育钻订婚戒指毛利率略高于天然钻订婚戒指，二者分别为54.4%和48.6%。2022年1至7月，珠宝零售总体毛利率为48.9%。9M22培育钻珠宝零售毛利率达53.7%。51.8%35.8%54.4%48.6%48.9%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%培育钻裸钻天然钻裸钻培育钻订婚戒指天然钻订婚戒指珠宝零售总体图图 珠宝零售毛利率（珠宝零售总体为珠宝零售毛利率（珠宝零售总体为1-7M22数据，其余均为数据，其余均为1-8M22）22For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and t

48、arget price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 4.渠道：零售环节强势，渠道驱动向需求驱动转变渠道：零售环节强势，渠道驱动向需求驱动转变培育钻订婚戒指寄售比例接近培育钻订婚戒指寄售比例接近30%：21年以来，培育钻订婚戒指的寄售比例出现了提升，从2020年的21%增长至2021年的28.5%。相比之下，销售的天然钻订婚戒指中寄售比例仅10%；库存方面，7M22期末，零售商52%的培育钻订婚戒指库存为寄售库存。据Edahn Golan披露，

49、十月底，零售商收到的培育钻整体的寄售比例接近50%，与培育钻订婚戒指的情况大体类似，我们认为，在培育钻销售中，零售商拥有很强的议价权，批发商相应承担较大压力。图图 培育钻订婚戒指寄售比例培育钻订婚戒指寄售比例图图 1-7M22销售天然钻订婚戒指寄售比例销售天然钻订婚戒指寄售比例图图 1-7M22库存培育钻订婚戒指中寄售比例库存培育钻订婚戒指中寄售比例寄售52%买断48%21.37%28.5%28.47%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%202020211-7M22培育钻订婚戒指寄售10%买断90%注：寄售为英文memo的翻译；买断为应为asset的翻译，我们认为asset主要为零售商批发进

50、货、存货为自有资产的模式，意译为买断。资料来源：Tenoris.bi.，HTI23For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 4.渠道：零售环节强势，渠道驱动向需求驱动转变渠道：零售环节强势，渠道驱动向需求驱动转变培育钻订婚戒指库存情况：培育钻订婚戒指库存情况：7-12M21，零售商收到的培育钻订婚戒指数量逐月上升，22

51、年则整体呈现下降趋势，7M22当月收到的培育钻订婚戒指仅比销售量略高，同时，由于虽然收到的培育钻订婚戒指有所下降、但高于售出的培育钻订婚戒指，因此2022年零售端库存缓慢增长。培育钻整体库存情况与培育钻订婚戒指类似，22年10月底，样本店的培育钻库存环比上月增加了6.6%。我们认为，从零售端数据和GJEPC披露的10M22数据来看，21年下半年，培育钻订婚戒指经历了渠道迅速扩张的周期，至22年9月，渠道扩张进入下半场，速度减缓，目前处于渠道库存消化的进程中，采购量与销售量之间的差距正在减小，预计未来需求将成为零售商采购的主要动力，随着培育钻需求端的稳步上升而提升。图图 培育钻订婚戒指销量、零售

52、商收到数量与库存量（个）培育钻订婚戒指销量、零售商收到数量与库存量（个）注：Edahn Golan披露，22年9月样本中超过70%的专业珠宝商出售培育钻珠宝，而1M22该比例仅为27%，这一数字似乎与图中数据有矛盾，可能的解释有口径不同，图中数据为订婚戒指细分类别，Edahn数据为所有培育钻饰品；21年下半年有小部分零售商进行了大批量的备货，而22年的新进入零售商的进货则为小规模。资料来源：Tenoris.bi.，HTI24For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all

53、 HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 4.渠道：零售环节强势，渠道驱动向需求驱动转变渠道：零售环节强势，渠道驱动向需求驱动转变资料来源：Tenoris.bi.，HTI培育钻订婚戒指库存情况：培育钻订婚戒指库存情况：7-12M21，零售商收到的培育钻订婚戒指数量逐月上升，22年则整体呈现下降趋势，7M22当月收到的培育钻订婚戒指仅比销售量略高。结合10M22印度进出口数据（10M22印度进口培育钻毛坯0.5亿美元-47%、出口培育钻切磨钻1.8亿美元+22%），我们认为，这一变化的可能

54、原因是，21年下半年，培育钻订婚戒指经历了渠道迅速扩张的周期，至22年9月，渠道扩张进入下半场，速度减缓，未来需求将成为零售商采购的主要动力，随着培育钻需求端的稳步上升而提升。1.00-1.0416%2.00-2.2418%1.5-1.5912%0.50-0.594%0.79-0.794%3.00-3.097%1.20-1.294%1.10-1.192%2.25-2.493%其他30%$5-$990.0%$100-$2490.0%250-4990.0%$500-$7491.4%$750-$9992.8%$1000-$14994.4%$1500-$249914.1%$2500-$499939.4

55、%$5000-$749922.4%$7500-$99998.0%其他7.5%图图 培育钻订婚戒指库存占比（按克拉数）培育钻订婚戒指库存占比（按克拉数）图图 培育钻订婚戒指库存占比（按零售价）培育钻订婚戒指库存占比（按零售价）25For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 5.美国消费市场跟踪：美国消费市场跟踪：2H22需

56、求降温，关注年底趋势扭转迹象需求降温，关注年底趋势扭转迹象资料来源：De Beers，钻石观察公众号，HTI钻石行业发展展望：钻石行业发展展望：据钻石观察公众号，21年全球天然钻珠宝需求同比增27%，主要国家均实现同比增长；1H22全球天然钻石珠宝需求同比实现高个位数增长，其中：美国和日本呈低两位数增长，印度和海湾地区呈个位数增长，中国市场下降；2H22受通胀、俄乌冲突等因素影响，钻石需求放缓。短期来看，高通胀、能源价格暴涨、生活成本上升等因素影响消费者信心及可支配支出，从而影响钻石需求；长期来看，钻石行业有整体积极的发展趋势。年底美国消费市场并不完全消极：年底美国消费市场并不完全消极：据钻石

57、观察公众号援引德勤零售调查报告（此次调查对象为美国消费者，样本数量4986人），受访者预期22年年底节假日期间人均消费额约为1455美元，与去年同期基本持平，但低于19年（疫情前）同期。73%的受访者认为今年会花更多钱购买商品，略低于去年的75%。美国消费市场和去年基本持平，没有明显下滑。我们认为，从消费者调查的结果看，消费需求的下落势头有得到遏制的趋势，年底消费旺季的销售表现仍然值得期待。地区地区成品钻市场规模（十亿美元）成品钻市场规模（十亿美元）YoY钻石珠宝市场规模（十亿美元）钻石珠宝市场规模（十亿美元）YoY2020202120202021全球全球2228+27%6887+27%美国1

58、115+36%3547+34%中国33+32%810+32%印度22+33%45+20%日本11+34%55+12%海湾12+35%23+24%其他地区55+36%1517+15%表表 20-21年全球各地区天然钻市场需求（数据精确到年全球各地区天然钻市场需求（数据精确到10亿美元）亿美元）26For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our we

59、bsite at 6.风险提示风险提示1.样本代表性不足风险。样本代表性不足风险。Tenoris.bi.统计了全美1200家专业珠宝店铺的经营数据，样本可能无法代表全美珠宝市场。2.行业变化较快风险。行业变化较快风险。外部因素影响行业供需关系，行业可能面临较快速的调整。3.下游消费能力下滑风险。下游消费能力下滑风险。通胀和疫情等因素影响消费能力，导致消费者需求疲软。4.宏观经济衰退风险。宏观经济衰退风险。受宏观经济因素影响，美国整体消费可能发生下滑，影响行业发展。APPENDIX 1Summary-We believe that,from the above data,the penetrat

60、ion of lab-grown diamonds at the consumer endcontinues and demand remains strong;in terms of inventory,the channel stocking phase is coming toan end and future retailer purchase plans will largely depend on consumer demand.Combined withthe high sales growth of 1-10M22 lab-grown diamonds and the dema

61、nd trend of the downstreamconsumer market at the end of the year,it is expected that retailers purchasing volume will also pickup with the increase in sales.-Risks：Risk of underrepresentation of the sample,Risk of rapid industry change,Decline indownstream consumption capacity,The macroeconomic down

62、turn27APPENDIX 2重要信息披露重要信息披露本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL)，Haitong Securities India Private Limited(HSIPL)，Haitong International Japan K.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。IMPORTANT DISCLOSURESThis research report is distributed by Haitong Intern

63、ational,a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited(“HTIRL”),Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HSIPL”),Haitong International Japan K.K.(“HTIJKK”),Haitong International Securities Company Limited(“HTISCL”),and anyother members within the Haitong

64、 International Securities Group of Companies(“HTISG”),each authorized to engage in securities activities in its respectivejurisdiction.HTIRL分析师认证分析师认证Analyst Certification:我，汪立亭，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在

65、其中均不持有任何财务利益。I,Liting Wang,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectcompanies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specif

66、ic recommendationsor views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subjectcompanies discussed.我，李宏科，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报

67、告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。I,Hongke Li,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectcompanies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectl

68、y related to the specific recommendationsor views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subjectcompanies discussed.28APPENDIX 2我，许樱之，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中

69、没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。I,Yingzhi Xu,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectcompanies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was

70、,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendationsor views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subjectcompanies discussed.我，张若白，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标

71、公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。I,Ruobai Zhang,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectcompanies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no p

72、art of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendationsor views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subjectcompanies discussed.利益冲突披露利益冲突披露Confli

73、ct of Interest Disclosures海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事项（以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏，如需了解及时全面信息，请发邮件至ERD-D）HTI and some of its affiliates may engage in investment banking and/or serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions of certain stocks orcompanies in

74、 this research report.As far as this research report is concerned,the following are the disclosure matters related to such relationship(As the followingdisclosure does not ensure timeliness and completeness,please send an email to ERD-D if timely and comprehensive information is needed).29APPENDIX 2

75、评级定义评级定义（从从2020年年7月月1日开始执行日开始执行）：海通国际（以下简称“HTI”）采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司：优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息，投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情况下，分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况（比如投资者的现有持仓）以及其他因素。分析师股票评级分析师股票评级优于大市优于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下中性中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NY

76、SE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。弱于大市弱于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下各地股票基准指数：日本各地股票基准指数：日本 TOPIX,韩国韩国 KOSPI,台湾台湾 TAIEX,印度印度 Nifty100,美国美国 SP500;其他所有中国概念股其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.Ratings Definitions(from 1 Jul 2020):Haitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperform,Neutral,or Underper

77、form for recommending the stocks we cover to investors.Investors shouldcarefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Research.In addition,since Haitong International Research contains more completeinformation concerning the analysts views,investors should carefully read

78、 Haitong International Research,in its entirety,and not infer the contents from the ratingalone.In any case,ratings(or research)should not be used or relied upon as investment advice.An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individualcircumstances(such as the investors existing

79、holdings)and other considerations.Analyst Stock RatingsOutperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Neutral:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with th

80、e return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Forpurposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.Underperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad m

81、arket benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100,US SP500;for all other China-conceptstocks MSCI China.30APPENDIX 2评级分布评级分布Rating Distribution31APPENDIX 2截至截至2022年年9月月30日日海通国际股票研究评级分布海通国际股票研究评级分布优于大市优于大市中性中

82、性弱于大市弱于大市(持有持有)海通国际股票研究覆盖率89.4%9.2%1.4%投资银行客户*5.5%6.8%4.5%*在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。上述分布中的买入，中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市，中性和落后大市评级。只有根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含非评级的股票。此前的评级系统定义此前的评级系统定义（直至直至2020年年6月月30日日）：买入买入，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下中性中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分

83、布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。卖出卖出，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下各地股票基准指数：日本各地股票基准指数：日本 TOPIX,韩国韩国 KOSPI,台湾台湾 TAIEX,印度印度 Nifty100;其他所有中国概念股其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.Haitong International Equity Research Ratings Distribution,as of Sep 30,2022OutperformNeutralUnderperform(hold)HTI Equity Research Coverage89.4%9.

84、2%1.4%IB clients*5.5%6.8%4.5%*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.BUY,Neutral,and SELL in the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outperform,Neutral,and Underperform.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls i

85、nto a hold rating category.Please note that stocks with an NR designation are notincluded in the table above.Previous rating system definitions(until 30 Jun 2020):BUY:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicat

86、ed below.NEUTRAL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.SELL:The stocks tota

87、l return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100;for all other China-concept stocks MSCIChina.32APPENDIX 2海通国际非评

88、级研究：海通国际非评级研究：海通国际发布计量、筛选或短篇报告，并在报告中根据估值和其他指标对股票进行排名，或者基于可能的估值倍数提出建议价格。这种排名或建议价格并非为了进行股票评级、提出目标价格或进行基本面估值，而仅供参考使用。Haitong International Non-Rated Research:Haitong International publishes quantitative,screening or short reports which may rank stocks according to valuation andother metrics or may sugg

89、est prices based on possible valuation multiples.Such rankings or suggested prices do not purport to be stock ratings or target prices orfundamental values and are for information only.海通国际海通国际A股覆盖股覆盖：海通国际可能会就沪港通及深港通的中国A股进行覆盖及评级。海通证券（600837.CH），海通国际于上海的母公司，也会于中国发布中国A股的研究报告。但是，海通国际使用与海通证券不同的评级系统，所以海通

90、国际与海通证券的中国A股评级可能有所不同。Haitong International Coverage of A-Shares:Haitong International may cover and rate A-Shares that are subject to the Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme withShanghai and Shenzhen.Haitong Securities(HS;600837 CH),the ultimate parent company of HTISG based in Shanghai,covers and publis

91、hes research on these sameA-Shares for distribution in mainland China.However,the rating system employed by HS differs from that used by HTI and as a result there may be a difference in theHTI and HS ratings for the same A-share stocks.海通国际海通国际优质优质100 A股股（Q100）指数指数：海通国际Q100指数是一个包括100支由海通证券覆盖的优质中国A股的

92、计量产品。这些股票是通过基于质量的筛选过程，并结合对海通证券A股团队自下而上的研究。海通国际每季对Q100指数成分作出复审。Haitong International Quality 100 A-share(Q100)Index:HTIs Q100 Index is a quant product that consists of 100 of the highest-quality A-shares under coverage atHS in Shanghai.These stocks are carefully selected through a quality-based scree

93、ning process in combination with a review of the HS A-share teams bottom-upresearch.The Q100 constituent companies are reviewed quarterly.33APPENDIX 2MSCI ESG评级免责声明条款：评级免责声明条款：尽管海通国际的信息供货商（包括但不限于MSCI ESG Research LLC及其联属公司（ESG方）从其认为可靠的来源获取信息（信息）,ESG方均不担保或保证此处任何数据的原创性，准确性和/或完整性，并明确表示不作出任何明示或默示的担保，包括可

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