1、2022|Fall EconomicStatementHis Majesty the King in Right of Canada(2022)All rights reservedAll requests for permission to reproduce this document or any part thereof shall be addressed to the Department of Finance Canada.This document is available at www.Canada.ca/Economic-Fiscal-UpdateCette publica

2、tion est aussi disponible en franais.Cat No.:F1-52E-PDFIn case of discrepancy between the printed version and the electronic version,the electronic version will prevail.Foreword iForewordFor the past several months,I have been travelling across Canadato more than two dozen cities and townsto meet wi

3、th Canadian workers and Canadian businesses.I visited an auto parts manufacturer in Etobicoke,a potash mine in Colonsay,Saskatchewan,and the women and men in Sherbrooke who make the boots our Armed Forces wear around the world.I visited the Port of Saint John in New Brunswick,and a family farm in Ol

4、ds,Alberta.In Dartmouth and Brampton and Calgary,I spent time with some of the truckers who keep our economy moving at all hours of the day and no matter the weather.The Canadians I spoke to were all proud of our country.They were proud of the hard work they do every dayto feed Canada and the world,

5、to build our cars,to send our goods to global markets,to raise their children.But many were also anxiousanxious about whether Canadas future will be as prosperous as our past,and anxious about paying the bills today.And that is where I want to start:with the high cost of living that I know so many m

6、illions of Canadians are concerned about.And while inflation is lower in Canada than in many of our peer countries,I know that fact brings little comfort to Canadians paying higher prices at the checkout counter,or spending more to fill their tanks with gas.This is a challenging time for millions of

7、 Canadiansfor our friends,for our families,for our neighbours.And its important,as both the Deputy Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance,that Im honest with Canadians about the challenges that still lie ahead.Interest rates are rising as the central bank steps in to tackle inflation.And that me

8、ans our economy is slowing down.It means there are people whose mortgage payments are rising.It means business is no longer booming in the same way it has since we left our homes and went back into the world.That will be the case in Canada.That will be the case in the United States.And that will be

9、the case in economies big and small around the world.To say otherwise would be misleading.Anyone who claims they could prevent the challenges ahead is wrong.Canada cannot avoid the global slowdown to come,any more than we could have prevented COVID from reaching our shores once it had begun to infec

10、t the world.But we will be readyindeed,we are ready.Thats because,for the past seven years,our government has been reinforcing Canadas social safety net.We have improved many important programs,and added some new ones,too.These investments in Canadians are like a well-built house with a solid roofne

11、eded in all seasons and in all weather,but most essential when the temperature drops.And that is why,as fall turns to winter,we are standing up for the EI and the pensions Canadians have been contributing to for their entire working lives.Thats why we created the Canada Child Benefit and increased t

12、he Guaranteed Income Supplement,and that is why it is so important that our pensions and most important benefits are all indexed to inflation.And in todays Fall Economic Statement,were delivering on further promises that will help make life more affordable for Canadiansdelivering on a plan that mill

13、ions of Canadians voted for just over a year ago.Were working to deliver lower credit card fees for small businesses,to help the businesses at the heart of our economy and our communitiesand the Canadians who support them.iiWere taxing share buybacks,to make sure that large corporations pay their fa

14、ir share,and to encourage them to reinvest their profits in workers and in Canada.Were delivering a Multigenerational Home Renovation Tax Credit,which will help families across Canada afford to have a grandparent or a son or daughter with a disability move back in if they need to.Were tackling housi

15、ng speculation,and making sure that homes are for Canadians to live innot assets for foreign investors or for other actors to simply trade for profit.Were delivering on our commitment to make home ownership more affordable for young people,with a new Tax-Free First Home Savings Account that will mak

16、e it easier to save for a down payment.And were delivering with a doubling of the First-Time Home Buyers Tax Credit to help cover the closing costs that come with buying that first home of your own.Were permanently eliminating interest on Canada Student Loans and Apprenticeship Loans.Were working to

17、 make sure children can see a dentist,and were providing much-needed support to low-income renters.Were providing advance payments of the Canada Workers Benefit to put more money,sooner,into the pockets of our lowest-paidand often most essentialworkers.And were delivering new support to those who ne

18、ed it most by doubling the GST Credit for six monthshundreds of dollars that will be arriving in the bank accounts of 11 million families to help them pay the bills.We are providing targeted inflation relief,because that is the right thing to do.But we cannot support every single Canadian in the way

19、 we did with emergency measures at the height of the pandemic.To do so would force the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates even higher.It would make life more expensive,for everyone,for longer.So as the central bank fights inflation,we will not make its job harder.Canada has the lowest net debt a

20、nd the lowest deficit-to-GDP ratios in the G7.In our April budget,with inflation in Canada and around the world elevated and still rising,we knew we had to chart a fiscally responsible courseand we did.In the budget,we committed to bringing the deficit down to just over$52 billion this year.Today,we

21、 forecast it will be just over$36 billiona decline of more than 30 per cent.Because,critically,our pandemic spending worked.Canada is entering this time of a slowing global economy from a position of fundamental economic strength.There are 400,000 more Canadians working today than before the pandemi

22、c.So far this year,our economic growth has been the strongest in the G7.Stronger than the United States,the United Kingdom,Italy,Germany,France or Japan.And thanks to that enviable economic performance,we are able to provide targeted support to the most vulnerable while shrinking our deficit and pay

23、ing down our debt.We will be able to invest in the Canadian economy and be there for the Canadians who need it mostbecause we were prudent in April,and because we are being prudent today.We are keeping our powder dry.Thats why we can all be confident we will get through this coming slowdown,just as

24、we have gotten through these past two-and-a-half difficult years.And when we do,with our fundamental economic strengths preserved,and the pandemic recession behind us,there is no country in the world better placed than Canada to thrive in a post-COVID global economy.We grow food to feed the world,an

25、d we mine the potash that farmers here and elsewhere need to grow their own.We have the critical minerals and metals that are essential for everything from cell phones to batteries to appliances to electric cars.Foreword iiiWe have the natural resources to power the global green transition and to su

26、pport our allies with their energy security as that transition continues to pick up speed.And critically,Canada is the democracy that has all of these resources in abundance.The global economy is at a turning point.We are entering an era of friendshoringa time when our democratic partners and their

27、most important companies are looking to shift their dependence from dictatorships to democracies.That is why the Prime Minister and Chancellor Scholz signed an agreement in Newfoundland for Germany to buy Canadian hydrogen.That is why the United States has moved from a Buy American to a Buy North Am

28、erican policy on critical minerals and electric vehicles.And that is why our Minister of Industry has been signing agreements with global car manufacturers and battery makers,and why our Minister of Natural Resources is pitching Canadas critical minerals to the world.Because Canadians can build the

29、electric vehicles of tomorrow.Canadians can produce the critical minerals that those vehicles,our phones,and our computers depend on.And Canadian energy workers can help Canada become the leading provider of energy in a net-zero world.Our allies are counting on us.And thats good news for Canadians,b

30、ecause our government believes that this ongoing shift is the most significant opportunity for Canadian workers and Canadian businesses in a generation.Seizing this opportunity is what our April budget invested in.And it is what this Fall Economic Statement invests in,too.With major investment tax c

31、redits for clean technology and clean hydrogen,we will make it more attractive for businesses in Canada to invest in technology and to produce the energy that will help to power a net-zero global economy.With the launch of the new Canada Growth Fund,we will help attract the billions of dollars in ne

32、w private capital required to fight climate change and create good jobs at the same time.From critical minerals,to ports,to energy,we will make it easier for businesses to invest in major projects in Canadaprojects with meaningful Indigenous participation,projects that will create good jobs,and proj

33、ects that will drive our economy forward.We will continue to invest in tackling the productivity challenge that is Canadas economic Achilles heel.We will continue to invest in making sure that Canadians have the skills they need to get good-paying jobs,and we will continue to bring to Canada more of

34、 the skilled workers that our growing economy requires in a changing world.But we know these investments represent only a down payment on the work that lies ahead.And so,in the months to come,we will continue to work hard to ensure that Canada is the best place in the world for businesses to invest

35、and create good-paying jobs.Now,these investmentsthe ones we are making today,and the ones we will continue to makewill be critical to the future of the Canadian economy.They will help make Canada a leader in the industries of tomorrow.They will help to build an economy that works for everyone,and a

36、 country that is more sustainable and more prosperous for generations to come.But what matters most is what these investments mean for Canadians.If youre an energy worker in Alberta,investments in renewable energies mean there will continue to be good-paying jobs for you and your children.If youre a

37、 young couple in Vancouver,more workers in the building trades means more affordable homes for your new family.And if youre an auto worker in Windsor,Canadian leadership on electric vehicles means you can build the next generation of cars that have powered our economy for more than a century.ivCanad

38、ian workers know how important our social safety net isand that is why our government will never deplete the contributions that keep EI and CPP strong.And Canadian workers know how important training is to prepare them for valuable,good-paying jobs.So we are investing in that,too.But Canadian worker

39、s also know that the single most important thing is a well-paid,stable job;doing work you can be proud of with people who respect you and your skills.Thats why our overriding economic objective during COVID was to preserve Canadians jobs.And that is why today,what Canadian workers need is a governme

40、nt with a real,robust industrial policy;a government committed to investing in the green transition,to bringing in new private investment,and to helping create good-paying jobs from coast-to-coast-to-coast.And that is what we are doing.In 1903,Prime Minister Laurier stood in this House and said:“Thi

41、s is not a time for deliberation;this is a time for action././We cannot wait,because time does not wait;we cannot wait because,in these days of wonderful development,time lost is doubly lost.“We cannot wait,because at this moment there is a transformation going on in the conditions of our national l

42、ife which it would be folly to ignore and a crime to overlook.”He was speaking then about the Transcontinental Railwayone that connected Canada and the Canadian economy from east to west,and which helped usher in a new era of growth and prosperity for the people of a growing country.That project,lik

43、e Laurier,was imperfect.The prosperity and opportunity it brought were not shared equallywith Indigenous Peoples,with women,with new Canadians.But his message then is one that we should heed today.At the turn of the last century,Laurier and a generation of Canadian statesmen understood that Canada w

44、as at a turning pointand that we could seize it,or risk being swept aside by the manifest destiny of more ambitious leaders.Today,we are likewise at a pivotal moment.The green transition calls for an industrial transformation comparable in scale only to the Industrial Revolution itselfand Canada is

45、blessed with the talented people and the raw materials and the industries needed to drive that transformation.And Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine has transformed geopolitics,reinforcing for our allies the value of turning to each otherto usfor the most critical elements of their supply chains.Tog

46、ether,these two great transformations represent a generational opportunity to build a thriving and sustainable Canadian economy.We can lead the global economy in a way that far exceeds our footprint as a country of just 39 million people.We can lead the fight against climate change,and we can do it

47、in a way that creates good-paying jobs and new businesses for Canadians from coast-to-coast-to-coast.We can build affordable homes and deliver affordable child care,which will help our economy grow and make life more affordable for middle class Canadians.And we can ensure that everyone in this count

48、ry can enjoy the prosperity that the road ahead can provide.That is the future that we can create for ourselves and our children.But we cannot wait,because time truly does not wait.In these days of wonderful development,time lost is doubly lost.I know that times feel tough.The north wind is blowing.

49、But we have a well-built house with a solid roof,and we have survived far colder winters before.Foreword vAnd just as fall turns to winter,so,too,does winter turn to spring.There are warmer days ahead,and we will reach them together.By building an economy that works for everyone.By building a Canada

50、 where everyone can earn a decent living for an honest days work.And by building a Canada where nobody gets left behind.The Honourable Chrystia Freeland,P.C.,M.P.Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Table of Contents viiTable of ContentsForeword.iEconomic Overview:Sound Economic Stewardship

51、 in Uncertain Times.11.1 New Challenges for the Post-COVID Recovery.1Inflation Is the Top Global Economic Challenge.1Interest Rates Are Rising Around the World.4Global Growth Is Expected to Slow and Recession Risks Have Risen.5Canada Has Seen a Strong Recovery .6The Labour Market Is Strong.6Canadas

52、Economic Growth Has Slowed From Its Robust Pace.81.2 Canadian Economic Outlook.9Private Sector Economists Expect Economic Growth to Slow Further.9Increasing Probability of a More Pronounced Slowdown .121.3 Investing to Expand the Supply Capacity of the Economy.13Canada Must Boost Investment .141.4 F

53、iscal Outlook .15A Responsible Fiscal Plan.15Downside Scenario.18The Fiscal Anchor.18Chapter 1:Making Life More Affordable.21New Support for Canadians Who Need It Most.21Doubling the GST Credit for Six Months.22The Canada Dental Benefit.22A Top-Up to the Canada Housing Benefit .22Eliminating Interes

54、t on Federal Student and Apprentice Loans .23Making Housing More Affordable.23Lowering Credit Card Transaction Fees for Small Businesses.24Rebuilding Atlantic Canada and Eastern Quebec After Hurricane Fiona .24Chapter 2:Jobs,Growth,and an Economy That Works for Everyone.272.1 Investing in Skills for

55、 a Net-Zero Economy.272.2 Securing Canadas Competitiveness and Creating Good Jobs for Workers.28Launching the Canada Growth Fund.29An Investment Tax Credit for Clean Technologies.30An Investment Tax Credit for Clean Hydrogen.31Investing in Canadas Advanced Manufacturing Competitiveness.31Ensuring th

56、e Resilience of Canadas Transportation Supply Chains .32viii2.3 A Productive and Innovative Economy .33Launching a Canadian Innovation and Investment Agency .33Modernizing National Research Council Facilities.34Encouraging Investment in Major Projects.34Canadas 2023-2025 Immigration Levels Plan.35In

57、vesting in Jobs for Young Canadians.36Protecting the Rights of Road Transportation Workers .36Chapter 3:Fair and Effective Government.393.1 A Fair Tax System.39A Tax on Share Buybacks.39International Tax Reform.39Ensuring the Wealthiest Canadians Pay Their Fair Share.403.2 Effective Government.40Imp

58、roving Service Delivery.40Addressing the Digitalization of Money.40Annex 1:Details of Economic and Fiscal Projections.43Annex 2:Update on the 2022-23 Debt Management Strategy.69Annex 3:Legislative Measures.73Tax Measures:Supplementary Information.75 Sound Economic Stewardship in Uncertain Times 1Eco

59、nomic Overview Sound Economic Stewardship in Uncertain TimesAround the world,the aftershocks of a once-in-a-century pandemic,combined with external factors including Russias illegal invasion of Ukraine,have driven inflation to its highest rates in decades.Canadians are feeling the pinchat the grocer

60、y store,when bills arrive at the end of the month,and when they think about what the future holds.Despite the challenges we face,Canadians can be confident that our economy will withstand the global economic slowdown that lies ahead.Canadas unemployment rate is at multi-decade lows,and economic grow

61、th has outperformed our G7 peers so far this year.Programs that supported Canadians through the pandemic helped provide the foundations for an unprecedented economic recovery.This will ensure that Canada will face global economic headwinds from a position of fundamental economic strength and resilie

62、nce.At a time of elevated inflation,the government has taken a balanced approach in helping people cope with the rising cost of living.Significant,targeted measures have been provided to support the most vulnerable while still ensuring that Canada maintains the fiscal firepower required in these unc

63、ertain times.In the challenging economic landscape that Canada and the world are contending with,economic growthboth here and around the worldis expected to slow.The severity of the slowdown,both in Canada and abroad,will depend critically on how quickly inflation moderates.In the years to come,stru

64、ctural trends suggest supply will remain an important constraint on global growth.The future will be marked by an ongoing reorientation of global trade patterns,a rapidly aging population,and the dual imperatives of energy security and the transition to net-zero.Investing in measures that encourage

65、middle class job creation and new investment will be key to the future prosperity of workers and businesses in Canada.The 2022 Fall Economic Statement builds on actions the government has taken to address these essential challenges,while focusing on supporting workers and families through a challeng

66、ing economic time.And as we work together to weather the economic slowdown to come,the 2022 Fall Economic Statement will help ensure that our economy can create good-paying jobs for workers,and that we maintain the fiscal firepower we need to support Canadians,grow the middle class,and build an econ

67、omy that works for everyone.1.1 New Challenges for the Post-COVID RecoveryInflation Is the Top Global Economic ChallengeInflation has increased sharply across the world over the past year.Global imbalances between supply and demand,which stem from a series of global supply shocks combined with rebou

68、nding demand,are driving up prices for goods and services.Russias illegal and barbaric invasion of Ukraine has disrupted global supply chains and led to a surge in commodity prices,particularly for crude oil,natural gas,food,and agricultural products.Europe is now facing an acute energy crisis as it

69、 moves away from dependency on Russian energy,which is driving up manufacturing costs and putting pressure on household budgets.Lockdowns related to Chinas zero-COVID policy have prolonged supply chain disruptions.As well,in many advanced economies,including the United States and Canada,inflation pr

70、essures have started to broaden with stronger domestic demand and higher wage pressures stemming from tight labour markets.In recent months,some of the global drivers of inflation have begun to ease.Global supply bottlenecks remain elevated but have begun to improve(Chart 1.1)and a range of global c

71、ommodity prices,including crude oil and agricultural commodities,have fallen from previous highs(Chart 1.2).As a result,headline inflation modestly declined in some countries over the summer,including Canada,though it continued to accelerate in other countries,including Italy,Germany,and the U.K.In

72、Canada,headline inflation declined for the third month in a row to 6.9 per cent year-over-year in September,below the 8.1 per cent peak in June,and more moderate than many peer countries(Chart 1.3).That said,inflationary pressures remain high and widespread in Canada.Momentum in core measures of inf

73、lation has eased,but core measures remain elevated and inflation is expected to remain above target levels for some time(Chart 1.4).2 Economic OverviewChart 1.1Global Supply Chain Pressures IndexChart 1.2Commodity Prices-1012345Jan2010Jan2014Jan2018Jan2022standard deviations from average valueNatura

74、l GasEnergyIndustrial MetalsAgriculture755Jan2021Jul2021Jan2022Jul2022index,January 2021=100Notes:Last data point is September 2022.The index integrates transportation cost data and manufacturing indicators,to gauge global supply chain pressures.Source:Federal Reserve Bank of New York.Not

75、e:Last data point is October 26,2022.Source:Haver Analytics.Indeed,there are still significant challenges to the inflation outlook around the world,most notably in the United States.The global economy remains highly disrupted by energy shortages and effects of the war in Ukraine.Global demand remain

76、s elevated,as do inflation expectations.It is unlikely that inflationary supply chain pressures will fully abate until demand for goods in the United Statesthe worlds largest economyhas normalized.The full effect on inflation of higher interest rates is expected to take time to materialize.Altogethe

77、r,these trends suggest that the global path back to moderate inflation will be gradual.Sound Economic Stewardship in Uncertain Times 3Chart 1.3Consumer Price Inflation in Selected Economies and Regions Chart 1.4Actual and Forecast Consumer Price Inflation,Canada051015ChinaJapanSwitzerlandFranceCanad

78、aNorwayNew ZealandAustraliaUnited StatesG20Euro areaDenmarkUnited KingdomGermanySwedenItalyNetherlandsper cent,year-over-yearSeptember 2022 Survey09Q42020Q42021Q42022Q42023Q42024Q4per cent,year-over-year1-3%inflationtarget bandNote:The chart represents year-over-year headline CPI inflatio

79、n readings for September 2022,except for G20(August 2022),Australia and New Zealand(2022Q3),Germany,Italy and France(October 2022).Sources:Haver Analytics;Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.Notes:Dashed and dotted lines are projections.Solid lines are actual data.Last actual data

80、 point is 2022Q3.Sources:Statistics Canada;Department of Finance Canada September 2022 survey of private sector economists;Department of Finance Canada calculations.4 Economic OverviewInterest Rates Are Rising Around the WorldTo slow demand and anchor inflation expectations,central banks,including t

81、he Bank of Canada and the U.S.Federal Reserve,have been raising interest rates in one of the most synchronized monetary tightening cycles in decades(Chart 1.5).For many advanced economies,interest rates are now reaching levels not seen in nearly 15 years.Chart 1.5Change in Central Bank Policy Rates

82、Since January 2022,Advanced EconomiesChart 1.6U.S.Policy Rate Expectations+0.00+1.25+0.65+1.75+2.00+1.75+2.00+2.50+3.00+2.75+3.50(p.p)-101234JapanSwitzerlandDenmarkSwedenEuro AreaNorwayUnited KingdomAustraliaUnited StatesNew ZealandCanadaper centPolicy rate on Dec.31,2021Policy rate on Oct.27,2022As

83、 of June 30,2022As of August 31,2022012345Jun2022Dec2022Jun2023Dec2023Jun2024Dec2024per centAs of October 27,2022Notes:For the Euro Area the main refinancing rate is used,for the United States the Fed funds target rate,average,is used.Others are official rates.Source:Haver Analytics.Notes:Last data

84、point is December 2024.Fed funds futures pricing converted into market-based odds of future Federal Reserve announcements of the target interest rate.Source:Bloomberg.In recent months,market expectations for future policy rates have increased substantially,as underlying inflation and inflation expec

85、tations have remained elevated and the U.S.Federal Reserve has shown increased resolve to tame inflation.The ramifications are being felt worldwide in a surging U.S.dollar,rising interest rates,and volatile financial markets.Only a few months ago,U.S.policy rates were expected to peak just above 3 p

86、er cent,while markets now see them peaking at nearly 5 per cent(Chart 1.6).Central banks have also largely ended quantitative easing programs,with some allowing their balance sheets to shrink,drawing down liquidity.Primarily in response to the shift in monetary policy and expectations of further rat

87、e hikes,financial markets have undergone a notable repricing,with equity markets in particular registering significant declines.Higher interest rates have been deployed by central banks to fight inflation,but will markedly slow economic growth.The Bank of Canada has been clear that it remains commit

88、ted to using its monetary policy tools to return to the 2 per cent target and keep inflation expectations well-anchored.In late October,the Bank of Canada reiterated that it expects inflation to decline to around 3 per cent,the upper bound of its inflation target,in late 2023,and return to 2 per cen

89、t by the end of 2024.Sound Economic Stewardship in Uncertain Times 5Global Growth Is Expected to Slow and Recession Risks Have RisenGlobal growth is expected to slow sharply in the second half of 2022 and in 2023,with the global economy at risk of falling into recession(Chart 1.7).The substantial ti

90、ghtening of financial conditions,as well as the European energy crisis driven by Russias illegal invasion of Ukraine,are the main sources of slowing growth in many economies.There are signs that global business activity has begun to weaken(Chart 1.8)and consumer confidence has deteriorated.However,i

91、t takes time for tighter financial conditions to have their full effect on production,investment,and consumption decisions.As a result,there is uncertainty about how much global growth will slow.The sharp rise in U.S.interest rates,coupled with growing concerns over global growth,has fueled a sizeab

92、le appreciation of the U.S.dollar against most major currencies,including the Canadian dollar,adding to the increase in prices for imported goods.Given the dominant role of the U.S.dollar in international finance,a strong dollar is also raising debt service costs for non-U.S.borrowers who have debt

93、denominated in U.S.dollars.As a result,developing countries will most acutely feel spillover effects from tightening U.S.monetary policy.In some major economies,the effects of tighter financial conditions are amplified by unique challenges.The energy crisis in Europe threatens to tip its economy int

94、o recession this winter.China is undergoing a marked slowdown in growth amid a necessary correction in its property sector and,at the same time,ongoing restrictions to contain resurgent waves of COVID-19.Chart 1.7Revisions to 2023 Real GDP Growth IMF Forecasts for Major EconomiesChart 1.8Global Manu

95、facturing Activity0123456ChinaWorldJapanCanadaUnitedStatesEuro AreaOctober 2022 Projectionsper centApril 2022 ProjectionsWorldUnited StatesEuro AreaChinaCanada30405060Jan2019Jan2020Jan2021Jan2022PMI index,50=output expandingSource:International Monetary Fund(IMF)World Economic Outlook,October 2022.N

96、ote:Last data point is October 2022 for Euro Area and United States,September 2022 for all others.Source:PMI by S&P Global.6 Economic OverviewCanada Has Seen a Strong Recovery Canadas economic recovery from the pandemic recession has been strong,with real gross domestic product(GDP)having returned t

97、o pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter of 2021the fastest recovery of the last three recessions.Despite slowing global economic growth,the Canadian economy has demonstrated resilience,having seen strong growth in the first half of 2022(Chart 1.9),with real GDP growing by 3.2 per cent at an annu

98、al rateby far the fastest pace in the G7(Chart 1.10).Canadas economy is now 102.6 per cent the size that it was before the pandemic.Chart 1.9Real GDP Recovery From Pandemic in G7 EconomiesChart 1.10Real GDP Growth in G7 Economies,2021Q4 to 2022Q2-25-20-15-10-5052019Q42020Q32021Q22022Q1Range of Other

99、 G7CanadaUnited Statespercentage change from 2019Q4-2024United StatesFranceGermanyJapanUnited KingdomItalyCanadaannualized growth in the first half of 2022,per centNote:Last data point in 2022Q2.Sources:Haver Analytics;Statistics Canada.Sources:Haver Analytics;Statistics Canada.The Labour Market Is

100、StrongThe strength of Canadas recovery has been particularly evident in the labour market.Canada has seen one of the fastest jobs recoveries in the G7,in large part due to the broad-based pandemic support the federal government provided to workers and businesses.About 400,000 more Canadians are work

101、ing today than before the pandemic,and the unemployment rate of 5.2 per cent in September is near its record low(Chart 1.11).These strong conditions are apparent across the country,with employment above pre-pandemic levels in every province(Chart 1.12).Compared to the United States,the economy to wh

102、ich Canadas is most closely linked,labour force participation is particularly strong.In Canada,about 79 per cent of working-age Canadians participated in the labour market in September,compared to just 74 per cent in the United States.However,employers have struggled to fill available positions,part

103、ly fuelled by a shortfall in immigration earlier in the pandemic(Chart 1.13).Employers were seeking to fill over one million jobs in the second quarter,a record high,though the most timely data suggests some easing in labour demand.Canadas strong employment recovery has reduced the number of availab

104、le workers,limiting the potential for further sizeable job gains.This tightness in the labour market has also resulted in a solid rise in wage growth,which has helped lessen the impacts for some of the rising cost of living.Sound Economic Stewardship in Uncertain Times 7Chart 1.11Unemployment RateCh

105、art 1.12Change in Employment Relative to Pre-Pandemic Level46898482016per centCurrent level(September 2022):5.2%012345SKQCNLMBCANNBONBCNSABPEper centNote:Last data point is September 2022.Source:Statistics Canada.Note:Percentage change from 2019Q4 to 2022Q3.Source:Statistics Ca

106、nada.A strong rebound in immigration has helped drive the recovery in population growth and the labour force.Canada has experienced the fastest population growth among G7 countries over the past several years(Chart 1.14).After declining sharply early in the pandemic,the number of new permanent resid

107、ents in Canada surged by about 275,000 so far in 2022,with the government well on track to achieving its 2022 immigration target.Further,the numbers of students and temporary foreign workers also increased significantly.The economic benefits of immigration,which are in addition to the social and fam

108、ilial benefits,depend on how well newcomers integrate into the labour market.Canada is doing well in this regard as newcomers to Canada have steadily improved their labour force participation over the past few years.Canada continuing to be a destination of choice for those looking to build a better

109、future for themselves and their families will be an important factor in our continued economic growth.8 Economic OverviewChart 1.13Job Searchers per VacancyChart 1.14Population Growth,G7 economies0123452016Q12017Q12018Q12019Q12020Q12021Q12022Q1ratioFranceItalyGermanyUnited KingdomCanadaUnited States

110、Japan95021index 2015=100Notes:Last data point is 2022Q2.Job searchers includes the unemployed but excludes future-start and temporary layoff unemployment.Source:Statistics Canada.Notes:Last data point is 2020 for United Kingdom and 2022 for other countries.Population estimated

111、as of July 1 for Canada and United States,and as of January 1 for other countries.Sources:Statistics Canada;National Statistical Offices;Eurostat.Canadas Economic Growth Has Slowed From Its Robust PaceWhile Canadas recovery has been solid,the economy is now showing signs of slowing and life has beco

112、me more expensive for Canadians.Elevated inflation,combined with rising interest rates and lower equity prices,are weighing heavily on household finances and will slow household spending.At the same time,a weakening global economy is weighing on commodity prices and will ultimately have an impact on

113、 demand for Canadian exports.Overall,real GDP expanded by 1.8 per cent at an annual rate from May to Augusta notable deceleration from a growth pace of 7.1 per cent between January and April.So far,the moderation in growth has been most evident in housing markets,which are undergoing a sharp pullbac

114、k following unprecedented heights during the pandemic.Triggered by higher mortgage rates,resales are down 36 per cent from their peak in February,while house prices are down 9 per cent(Charts 1.15 and 1.16).The cooling in overheated house prices will help slow inflation and make it more affordable f

115、or Canadians to enter the housing market.Encouragingly,new construction has been quite resilient,which will also contribute to supply and help moderate housing prices.Consumer spending,which surged earlier this year as public health restrictions were lifted,is also weakening.High inflation has incre

116、ased the cost of virtually all goods and services.Bringing inflation under control is critical to ensuring working Canadians do not fall behind.Rising interest rates have raised the cost of borrowing over the past year,while falling home and equity prices have reduced household net worth.That said,t

117、here are some factors that may help buoy consumer spending.Notably,many households accumulated an unusually large amount of savings during the pandemic as people stayed home.Labour market conditions are also expected to remain solid.Meanwhile,the global slowdown is beginning to impact Canadian expor

118、ters.The current moderation of commodity prices is weighing on export revenues and could reduce activity in commodity-producing sectors.The slowdown in global manufacturing activity will also drag on non-commodity exporters in the coming months.Despite a deterioration in global economic conditions,s

119、ome factors could support exports and business investment as the global economy recovers through 2024.The rebound in international travel,the unwinding of global supply chain disruptions,and the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar should partially offset the impact of weaker global activity o

120、n non-commodity exports.Capital expenditures could also increase in response to ongoing capacity constraints facing many businesses.Sound Economic Stewardship in Uncertain Times 9Chart 1.15Key Measures of Housing ActivityChart 1.16Evolution of House Prices-20-50Home SalesHousing Starts202

121、02021Feb 2022Sep 2022change from 2019 average,per cent900140150160Jan2019Jul2019Jan2020Jul2020Jan2021Jul2021Jan2022Jul2022Single FamilyTownhouse/RowApartmentindex,2019 average=100Sources:Canadian Real Estate Association;Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.Note:Last data point is Septe

122、mber 2022.Source:Canadian Real Estate Association.1.2 Canadian Economic OutlookThe Department of Finance surveyed a group of private sector economists in early September 2022.The average of private sector forecasts has been used as the basis for economic and fiscal planning since 1994,helping to ens

123、ure objectivity and transparency,and introducing an element of independence into the governments economic and fiscal forecast.Since the private sector survey was conducted in early September,global economic and financial conditions have continued to deteriorate.While the macroeconomic inputs of the

124、September survey continue to provide a reasonable basis for economic and fiscal planning(see Annex 1 for details of the economic and fiscal projections),the balance of risks to the growth outlook are tilted to the downside,with growth more likely to come in below the survey than above.To facilitate

125、prudent economic and fiscal planning,the Department of Finance has developed an alternative scenario that illustrates a slower growth track relative to the September survey.Private Sector Economists Expect Economic Growth to Slow Further Inflation has been much higher than projected by private secto

126、r economists in Budget 2022,which was based on a survey conducted in early February 2022,before Russias illegal invasion of Ukraine.While private sector economists continue to believe Consumer Price Index(CPI)inflation will return to the Bank of Canadas target,this process is taking longer than prev

127、iously expected.CPI inflation was projected to remain above 3 per cent until the third quarter of 2023almost a year later than private sector economists predicted in Budget 2022before reaching 2 per cent in mid-2024(Chart 1.17).Persistent inflationary pressures have also led to a sharp increase in i

128、nterest rates.At 3.0 per cent in the third quarter of 2022,short-term interest rates were roughly 200 basis point higher than expected by private sector economists in Budget 2022.Further ahead,private sector economists expected short-term interest rates to peak at 3.8 per cent in the first half of 2

129、023(Chart 1.18).This represents a substantial increase in the outlook for interest rates from that expected by private sector economists in Budget 2022.10 Economic OverviewChart 1.17Consumer Price Inflation ProjectionsChart 1.18Short-Term Interest Rate ProjectionsBudget 2021(March 2021 Survey)Budget

130、 2022(February 2022 Survey)September 2022 Survey024682019Q42020Q42021Q42022Q42023Q42024Q42025Q42026Q4per cent,year-over-yearBudget 2021(March 2021 Survey)Budget 2022(February 2022 Survey)September 2022 Survey012342019Q42020Q42021Q42022Q42023Q42024Q42025Q42026Q4per centNotes:Dashed and dotted lines a

131、re projections.Solid lines are actual data.Sources:Statistics Canada;Department of Finance Canada March 2021,February 2022 and September 2022 surveys of private sector economists;Department of Finance Canada calculations.Notes:Dashed and dotted lines are projections.Solid lines are actual data.Sourc

132、es:Statistics Canada;Department of Finance Canada March 2021,February 2022 and September 2022 surveys of private sector economists;Department of Finance Canada calculations.With higher inflation and interest rates,as well as slower economic growth in the United States and globally,private sector eco

133、nomists anticipated in their survey that Canada would see significantly weaker growth than anticipated in Budget 2022(Chart1.19).Real GDP was projected to expand by a still strong 3.2 per cent in 2022(from 3.9 per cent in Budget 2022)but growth was expected to slow to 0.7 per cent in 2023(from 3.1 p

134、er cent).By the end of 2026,the level of real GDP was expected to remain about 2 per cent below Budget 2022 projections.Overall,the September 2022 survey average indicates that the Canadian economy was expected to see a period of subdued growth.Real GDP growth was projected to be just above zero for

135、 the next several quarters.As a result,the unemployment rate was expected to increase from the current rate of 5.2 per cent to 6.3 per cent by the end of 2023above Budget 2022 projections(5.5 per cent)but low by historical standards.The unemployment rate was then expected to decline to 5.7 per cent

136、by the end of the forecast horizon.Sound Economic Stewardship in Uncertain Times 11Chart 1.19Real GDP Growth Projections0Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q2202220232024Budget 2022(February 2022 Survey)September 2022 Surveyper cent,quarter to quarter at annual ratesActualQuarterlyAnnualSources:Stat

137、istics Canada;Department of Finance Canada February 2022 and September 2022 surveys of private sector economists;Department of Finance Canada calculations.Despite lower growth prospects since Budget 2022,the Canadian economy has seen a significant boost to national income from higher commodity price

138、s following Russias illegal invasion of Ukraine.Higher prices for a range of commodities that Canada exports pushed up our terms of trade(the ratio of export prices to import prices)to an all-time high in the second quarter of 2022(Chart 1.20).Higher export prices have,in turn,boosted the revenues o

139、f Canadian exporters,corporate profits,and GDP inflation(a measure of price changes for all of the goods and services produced in the economy).These trends have been widespread across sectors and regions of Canada,supporting revenues of all orders of government,including provinces and territories.As

140、 a result,the projected level of nominal GDP(the broadest measure of the tax base)in the September survey is$94 billion above Budget 2022 expectations for 2022(Chart 1.21).However,with a reduced outlook for real GDP growth in 2023,the boost to nominal GDP was expected to partly unwind next year,leav

141、ing the projected level of nominal GDP up by an average of$54 billion per year over the entire forecast horizon relative to Budget 2022 projections.12 Economic OverviewChart 1.20Terms of Trade and Commodity PricesChart 1.21Nominal GDP ProjectionsCommodity price index(left)Terms of trade(right)859095

142、5007Q12010Q12013Q12016Q12019Q12022Q1index,2012=100index,2012=100Budget 2022(February 2022 Survey)September 2022 Survey01402021Q42022Q42023Q42024Q42025Q42026Q4index,pre-recession peak=100Note:Last data point is 2022Q3.Sources:Statistics Canada;Bank of Canad

143、a.Sources:Statistics Canada;Department of Finance Canada December 2019,February 2022 and September 2022 surveys of private sector economists;Department of Finance Canada calculations.Increasing Probability of a More Pronounced Slowdown At the time of the September 2022 survey,most private sector eco

144、nomists continued to expect that Canada would avoid a“hard landing”that is,inflation will moderate without a recession.This growth outlook is subject to significant downside risks.Primarily,this relates to the path of inflation.How quickly inflation moderates will determine how high interest rates w

145、ill rise and how long they remain elevated,and therefore how sharply global activity will cool.A more pronounced slowdown,both in Canada and globally,is possible if high inflation becomes more deeply entrenched.Even without a further upward drift in inflation,several factors are contributing to the

146、risk of an unexpectedly steep downturn in global activity:-There is considerable uncertainty about the impacts of the unusually sharp and synchronous global monetary policy tightening;-The European energy crisis could further unsettle commodity markets;-The Chinese property market slowdown could dis

147、rupt financial markets;and -In Canada,the economy could turn out to be more sensitive to higher interest rates than anticipated.This is most likely to manifest as a sharper correction in the housing market.In addition,since the survey was conducted in early September,global economic and financial co

148、nditions have continued to deteriorate.At the time of the survey,forecasters attached a roughly 40 per cent probability to a recession in 2023.Since then,the U.S.Federal Reserves more aggressive posture on inflation has led to a substantial shift in sentiment that has caused widespread volatility in

149、 financial markets.There have also been further signs that the global economy is slowing more quickly than anticipated.All of this suggests that since the survey was completed,the trajectory of the global economy has led to increasing uncertainty about how much growth in Canada will slow.Overall,the

150、 macroeconomic inputs of the September survey continue to provide a reasonable basis for economic and fiscal planning(see Annex 1 for details of the economic and fiscal projections).However,in light of recent developments and the significant downside risks to the near-term growth outlook,the Departm

151、ent of Finance has developed a downside scenario that considers the impact of more persistent inflationary pressures and further tightening in monetary policy,leading to a“hard landing”in the economy.In this scenario,elevated inflation becomes more deeply entrenched,particularly in the U.S.,leading

152、central banks to raise interest rates by more than anticipated to return inflation to target.Sound Economic Stewardship in Uncertain Times 13This increases long-term interest rates and leads to a significant tightening in global financial conditions.Tighter financial conditions result in more advers

153、e effects on confidence,wealth and activity,resulting in a sharper correction in housing markets and consumer activity in Canada,as well as larger spillovers from tightening and weaker economic activity in other countries.In the downside scenario,CPI inflation is 1.8 percentage points above the Sept

154、ember 2022 survey in 2023,and stays above 3 per cent until the first quarter of 2024about six months longer than in the surveybefore reaching 2 per cent by the end of 2024.In response,short-term interest rates reach 4.5 per cent in the first half of 2023 and are up by 0.7 percentage points over the

155、entire forecast horizon.As a result,Canada enters a mild recession in the first quarter of 2023.Real GDP contracts by 1.6 per cent from peak to trough,well below the 4.4-per-cent contraction in 2008-09.Similarly,the unemployment rate rises 1.7 percentage points to 6.9 per cent in the second half of

156、2023,far lower than the peak of 8.7 per cent experienced following the 2008-09 contraction.For 2023 as a whole,real GDP declines by 0.9 per cent and the unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage point above the survey.At the same time,weaker global demand weighs on commodity prices,with oil prices US$8 pe

157、r barrel below the survey in 2023.Despite higher CPI inflation,lower commodity prices lead to lower GDP inflation and,combined with slower growth,result in a level of nominal GDP that is$45 billion lower than the survey,on average.Chart 1.22Real GDP GrowthChart 1.23Nominal GDP Level Difference Betwe

158、en the Downside Scenario and the September 2022 Survey-2-24202520262027September 2022 SurveyDownside scenarioper cent-80-60-40-20020232024202520262027$billionsSources:Statistics Canada;Department of Finance Canada September 2022 survey of private sector economists;Department of Finance Ca

159、nada calculations.Sources:Statistics Canada;Department of Finance Canada September 2022 survey of private sector economists;Department of Finance Canada calculations.1.3 Investing to Expand the Supply Capacity of the EconomyRecent events have demonstrated how sensitive the global economy can be to s

160、udden changes in supply.While these disruptions are the outcomes of an extreme set of circumstances,moving forward,the global economy is likely to be shaped by trends that will create a drag on productive capacity and increase the frequency of supply chain disruptions.Climate change will increase th

161、e frequency of extreme weather and natural disasters(Chart 1.24).Rising geopolitical tensions have the potential to lead to more frequent disruption of trading relationships and more volatile prices for commodities.Domestically,population aging will make it harder for businesses to recruit workers.W

162、hile harnessing demand for Canadian products and expertise in a net-zero world will create jobs and build a competitive Canadian economy,careful work must be done to support workers and businesses during this transition.14 Economic OverviewThere is uncertainty about how each of these trends will unf

163、old,but they all point to supply remaining an important constraint over the longer term.In the long run,Canadians ongoing prosperity and quality of life will depend on expanding the supply capacity of the economy to achieve robust growth.To do this,we will have to grow our workforce,ensure that work

164、ers have the skills they need for a changing global economy,and invest in helping businesses grow and create good jobs for Canadians.(Chart 1.25).Chart 1.24Rising Natural Disaster Events WorldwideChart 1.25Canadian Labour Productivity and Real Labour Compensation Rate Growth02004006008001,0001980199

165、020002010number of eventsClimatologicalHydrologicalMeteorologicalGeophysical01-20002001-2018per cent Labour ProductivityReal Compensation Per Hour WorkedNote:Last data point is 2018.Sources:NatCat Service;Department of Finance Canada calculations.Notes:Labour productivity is real GDP

166、per hour worked for the total economy.Total labour compensation includes wages and other forms of compensation.Nominal compensation is converted into real terms using the GDP deflator.Last observation is 2018.Sources:Statistics Canada;Department of Finance Canada calculations.Canada Must Boost Inves

167、tment Canada faces the future with many strengthsa highly educated population,a way of life and society that attracts people from around the world,and abundant natural resources.But Canada will require capital to finance the enormous investments needed to meet the challenges ahead.In Canada,the tran

168、sition to a net-zero economy will require significant investment from both governments and the private sector.Investments will also be needed to limit strategic vulnerabilities in supply chains.Smart investments in areas like critical minerals,energy,agriculture,and electric vehicles are needed to h

169、elp make Canada a leader in the clean and digital technologies that the world counts on.Likewise,education,training,and skills development will be crucial to ensure that Canadians thrive in a changing economy.In light of the U.S.Inflation Reduction Act,significant steps will need to be taken to ensu

170、re that Canada remains competitive in North America and the world.In the past,strong investment in the oil and gas sector compensated for weakness in other segments of the economy.As the world moves towards net-zero,global investment growth in that sector has declined,and the historical weakness of

171、business investment in Canada has become more apparent(Chart 1.26).Canadian firms have invested in information and communication technology(ICT)at only half the rate of their U.S.counterparts.Likewise,research and development intensity has steadily fallen over the last two decades,to a level roughly

172、 one third that of the U.S.These types of investments drive productivity growth and are essential for equipping Canadian workers to succeed in the economy of the future.While some new investments have been made by leading businesses across the Canadian economy in the past 12 months,investment remain

173、s 1.2 per cent below its pre-pandemic level.Sound Economic Stewardship in Uncertain Times 15Notably,investment in the oil and gas sector remains muted despite the sharp rise in oil prices following the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine(Chart 1.27).This weakness in business investment has also been

174、 reflected in the performance of foreign direct investment(FDI)in new capital projects,the types of so-called greenfield investments that contribute to Canadas productive capacity.Reversing this historical trend is an urgent priority for the government,as evidenced by significant investments in Budg

175、et 2022 and in the 2022 Fall Economic Statement.Chart 1.26Real Business Investment Since 2015 in Canada,the United States and G7 EconomiesChart 1.27Real Investment in the Oil and Gas Sector and Oil Prices CanadaCanada(excluding theoil and gas sector)U.S.70809015Q12017Q12019Q12021Q1index,2

176、015Q1=100Range of G7 economiesWTI oil prices(left)Real investment in the oil and gas sector(right)040801602002Q12007Q12012Q12017Q12022Q1$USD/bbl$billions(chained 2012)Notes:The G7 range excludes Italy due to data comparability issues.Last data point is 2022Q2.Sources:Statistics Canada;Hav

177、er Analytics;Office for National Statistics;German Federal Statistical Office.Department of Finance Canada calculations.Note:Last data point is 2022Q2.Sources:Statistics Canada;Bloomberg;Department of Finance Canada calculations.Strengthening Canadas economic prospects will depend on the government

178、continually working to attract skilled immigrants and increase labour force participation,continuing to invest in education and training,making productivity-improving investments in infrastructure,and creating the conditions for Canada to attract further investmentboth domestic and international.Gov

179、ernment can play an important role in spurring these types of investments and growing Canadas productive capacity,while also reducing emissions and fighting climate change.However,government actions must strike the right balance between promoting the investments needed for Canadas long-term prosperi

180、ty and ensuring that it does not amplify inflation in a way that would make it harder for Canadians to keep up with the cost of living.Building on the measures from Budget 2022,the government will ensure that new investments are balanced and targeted to enhance Canadas productive capacity,create goo

181、d-paying jobs,and build an economy that works for everyone.1.4 Fiscal Outlook A Responsible Fiscal PlanSince 2015,the government has demonstrated that it can responsibly support Canadians while also investing in people and the long-term capacity of Canadas economy.As we emerge from the pandemic,the

182、government is running a tighter fiscal ship.Canada has an enviable position amongst its peers,with the lowest net debt and deficit as a share of the economy in the G7.Given current economic conditions,continuing fiscal prudence will be important to ensure that inflation is not made worse or longer l

183、asting,while also ensuring the government retains the fiscal capacity to provide targeted support to Canadians,if required.16 Economic OverviewProvincial and territorial governments continue to significantly outperform fiscal projections.Fiscal results to date show that the aggregate provincial-terr

184、itorial budgetary balances moved into a surplus position in 2021-22,as opposed to the 1 per cent of GDP deficit that had been expected at the time of 2022 budgets.The improvement in provincial-territorial budgets was in line with,but somewhat larger than,the better-than-expected result at the federa

185、l level of a deficit of 3.6 per cent of GDP(Chart 1.28).Chart 1.282021-22 Budgetary Balances-4.6-1.0-3.60.4-5-4-3-2-101CanadaProvincial-territorial aggregateBudgets 2022Fiscal results to dateper cent of GDPSources:Budget 2022 documents;Fiscal Reference Tables;Public Accounts of New Brunswick and Yuk

186、on.After accounting for better-than-expected fiscal results,measures in the 2022 Fall Economic Statement and other new policy actions since Budget 2022,and incorporating the results of the September 2022 survey of private sector economists,the budgetary balance is expected to remain below the$52.8 b

187、illion deficit projected in Budget 2022,with a$36.4 billion expected deficit in 2022-23,about-1.3 per cent of GDP,improving to a$4.5 billion surplus in 2027-28,or about 0.1 per cent of GDP(Table 1).Looking out over the next five years,the federal deficit(Chart 1.29)and federal debt(Chart 1.30)as a s

188、hare of the economy are projected to be reduced each year and remain well below the Budget 2022 forecast.The responsible approach outlined in this chapter builds on the plan outlined in Budget 2022 to ensure that the federal government can respond to the challenges that may face Canadians in the com

189、ing yearboth those that are anticipated and those that remain unknown.The federal government made use of its accumulated fiscal firepower during the global pandemic to help Canadians stay safe and avoid many of the devastating consequences we witnessed elsewhere in the world.In the face of economic

190、headwinds,Canadians should have the confidence that the government is able to deliver timely and effective support to families and communities,and build an economy that works for everyone.By maintaining our fiscal firepower,the government is ensuring that it will have the capacity to act if needed.T

191、hat capacity to act in the near future,when combined with the measures introduced elsewhere in the 2022 Fall Economic Statement to help with affordability challenges,is at the heart of the governments commitment to stand in support of all Canadians as we face the challenges of this unprecedented tim

192、e together.Sound Economic Stewardship in Uncertain Times 17Table 1Economic and Fiscal Developments,Policy Actions and Measuresbillions of dollarsProjection2021 2022 20222023 20232024 20242025 20252026 20262027 20272028 Budgetary balance Budget 2022-113.8-52.8-39.9-27.8-18.6-8.4 Impact of September p

193、rivate sector survey and other fiscal developments23.629.818.811.010.211.4Budgetary balance before policy actions and measures-90.2-23.0-21.1-16.8-8.43.012.8Policy actions since Budget 2022-7.3-4.3-2.9-1.8-1.8-3.52022 Fall Economic Statement measures(by chapter)Making Life More Affordable-4.4-1.3-1.

194、3-1.3-1.4-1.4 Jobs,Growth,and an Economy That Works for Everyone-0.1-2.1-2.3-1.8-2.3-2.4 Fair and Effective Government0-0.6-0.8-0.20.40.50.6 Provision for anticipated near-term pressures1-1.0-1.0-2.0-1.5-1.5-1.5Total 2022 Fall Economic Statement measures-6.1-5.2-5.8-4.2-4.6-4.7Budgetary Balance Base

195、line Scenario-90.2-36.4-30.6-25.4-14.5-3.44.5Fiscal impact of downside economic scen-ario-12.7-21.8-16.8-15.9-15.3-12.8Budgetary Balance Downside Scenario-90.2-49.1-52.4-42.3-30.4-18.6-8.3Baseline ScenarioBudgetary Balance(per cent of GDP)-3.6-1.3-1.1-0.9-0.5-0.10.1Federal Debt(per cent of GDP)45.54

196、2.342.241.640.438.937.3Downside ScenarioBudgetary Balance(per cent of GDP)-3.6-1.8-1.9-1.5-1.0-0.6-0.3Federal Debt(per cent of GDP)45.543.044.544.143.242.040.6Budget 2022 Projections Budgetary Balance(per cent of GDP)-4.6-2.0-1.4-0.9-0.6-0.3Federal Debt(per cent of GDP)46.545.144.543.842.841.5Note:T

197、otals may not add due to rounding.1 Provision of$8.5 billion over six years,for pressures that are expected to materialize in the near term.18 Economic OverviewChart 1.29Budgetary BalanceChart 1.30Federal Debt-5-4-3-2-10per cent of GDPBudget 20222022 Fall Economic Statement354045-242025

198、-262027-28per cent of GDP2022 Fall Economic StatementBudget 2022Downside scenarioNote:Budget 2022 forecast ended in 2026-27.Source:Department of Finance Canada.Note:Budget 2022 forecast ended in 2026-27.Source:Department of Finance Canada.Downside ScenarioIn the downside scenario(as presented in Sec

199、tion 1.2),the budgetary balance would deteriorate by an average of approximately$16 billion per year and add 3.3 percentage points to the federal debt-to-GDP ratio by 2027-28(Chart 1.30).The higher deficits under the downside scenario are driven by:-A reduction in projected tax revenues,led by corpo

200、rate and personal income tax revenues,due to the lower outlook for nominal GDP,which would result in lower corporate profits and personal incomes.-Higher expected program expenses as the higher unemployment rate would raise Employment Insurance benefit expenses,while higher CPI inflation would raise

201、 the cost of inflation-indexed programs such as seniors benefits and the Canada Child Benefit,and;-Increased public debt charges as higher interest rates would lead to higher interest payments on the governments interest bearing debt.That said,even under the downside scenario,the federal debt-to-GDP

202、 ratio would still be on a downward trend over the medium term and be lower in 2027-28 than it is today.Details of the governments fiscal outlook and the fiscal impact of the downside scenario can be found in Annex 1.The Fiscal AnchorThe federal governments fiscal anchorthe unwinding of COVID-19-rel

203、ated deficits and reducing the federal debt-to-GDP ratio over the medium termremains unchanged and is being acted upon.This fiscal anchor is helping and will continue to help ensure Canadas low-debt advantage and enviable credit ratings are preserved,and that future generations have the fiscal capac

204、ity necessary to respond to the challenges they will face.Considering the governments fiscal anchor and using the 2022 Fall Economic Statement forecasts as a starting point,the governments plan is fiscally sustainable over the long term.Over the next three decades,the federal debt-to-GDP ratio is pr

205、ojected to continuously decline and be on a steeper downward track than projected in Budget 2022(Chart 1.31).Sensitivity analysis around these long-term fiscal projections also suggests fiscal sustainability would be preserved under the downside scenario(see Annex 1 for details).Sound Economic Stewa

206、rdship in Uncertain Times 19Chart 1.31Long-Term Projection of the Federal Debt-50----512055-56per cent of GDPBudget 20222022 Fall Economic Statement:Baseline2022 Fall Economic Statement:DownsidePeak COVID-related DeficitNotes:Rather than

207、 being viewed as a forecast,this long-term projection should be viewed as a modelling scenario based on a set of reasonable economic and demographic assumptions,assuming no future changes in policies.See Annex 1 for more details.Sources:Statistics Canada;Department of Finance Canada.Compared to Cana

208、das international peers,the federal fiscal outlook and the better-than-expected provincial-territorial fiscal results position Canada to continue to have the lowest net debt-to-GDP ratio in the G7(Chart 1.32).Canada is also expected to post the second largest fiscal consolidation(i.e.,improvement in

209、 its budgetary balance)among G7 countries between the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and next year,resulting in Canada having by far the smallest deficit of the group this year and next(Chart 1.33).20 Economic OverviewChart 1.32General Government Net Debt Forecasts,G7 CountriesChart 1.33General

210、Government Deficit Forecasts,G7 Countries050100150200JapanItalyFranceUnited StatesUnited KingdomGermanyCanadaper cent of GDP20202021015JapanItalyFranceUnited StatesUnited KingdomGermanyCanadaper cent of GDP2020202120222023Notes:The internationally comparable definition of“general governme

211、nt”includes the central,state,and local levels of government,as well as social security funds.For Canada,this includes the federal,provincial/territorial,and local and Indigenous government sectors,as well as the Canada Pension Plan and the Quebec Pension Plan.Sources:International Monetary Fund,Oct

212、ober 2022 Fiscal Monitor;Department of Finance Canada calculations.Making Life More Affordable 21Chapter 1 Making Life More AffordableThe past two-and-a-half years have been difficult.A pandemic forced us to stay home to keep each other safe,and the global economy ground to a halt.Russias illegal an

213、d barbaric invasion of Ukraine has driven up the price of food and gas.Now,like people around the world,Canadians are dealing with the impacts of global inflation.The months to come will continue to be challenging for many Canadiansfor our friends,for our families,and for our neighbours.As we naviga

214、te the economic slowdown that is coming for Canada and the world,the government will continue to be there for the Canadians who need it most.The governments support has been carefully designed to avoid pouring fuel on the fire of inflation.The 2022 Fall Economic Statement includes a series of new,ta

215、rgeted measures that are focused on the Canadians most affected by rising prices,and delivers on key pillars of the governments plan to make housing more affordable for the middle class and people working hard to join it.The federal government is also continuing to provide support to people and busi

216、nesses in Atlantic Canada and Eastern Quebec following Hurricane Fiona,with the 2022 Fall Economic Statement confirming significant financial support to assist with rebuilding efforts.Ongoing Programs to Make Life More Affordable for Canadians This YearPrior to the 2022 Fall Economic Statement,this

217、year,Canadians have already been receiving significant new support through the governments Affordability Plan.This includes:-Enhancing the Canada Workers Benefit for an estimated three million low-income or minimum wage workers this year,with a couple receiving up to$2,400 more this year,and single

218、workers receiving up to$1,200 more.Most recipients first received this additional support through their 2021 tax refund.-Cutting child care fees by an average of 50 per cent by the end of this year for families across Canada with children in regulated child care,and making child care more accessible

219、 in Quebec.-Increasing the Old Age Security(OAS)pension by 10 per cent for the most vulnerable seniors,people 75 years and older,which began in July 2022,will provide more than$800 in new support to full pensioners over the first year,and increase benefits for more than three million seniors.-Import

220、ant benefits being indexed to inflation,including the Canada Child Benefit,the Canada Pension Plan,OAS,and the Guaranteed Income Supplement.-More support for students by doubling the Canada Student Grant to provide up to$6,000 per year until July 2023,and by waiving interest on Canada Student Loans

221、through to March 2023.This is what the governments Affordability Plan means for Canadians this year:-A couple in Ontario who earn$45,000 and have a child in daycare could receive about an additional$7,800 above their existing benefits this fiscal year.-A single senior with a disability,in Quebec,cou

222、ld benefit from an additional$2,700 more this year than she received last year.-A single recent graduate,starting their career in Alberta with an income of$24,000,could receive an additional$1,300 in new and enhanced benefits.New Support for Canadians Who Need It MostThe very first pieces of legisla

223、tion that the government introduced in this falls Parliamentary sitting proposed new,targeted measures to provide support for the Canadians who need it most.One of those two pieces of legislation,the Cost of Living Relief Act,No.1,has already received unanimous support and will double the Goods and

224、Services Tax Credit for six months,providing inflation relief to Canadians from coast-to-coast-to-coast.The government continues to move forward on passing the second piece of legislation,the Cost of Living Relief Act,No.2,which will deliver dental care to children under 12 and a top-up to the Canad

225、a Housing Benefit for nearly two million low-income renters.22 Chapter 1The 2022 Fall Economic Statement also proposes financial support for low-income workers through automatic advance payments on the Canada Workers Benefit,and the permanent elimination of interest on Canada Student Loans and Canad

226、a Apprentice Loans,which will offer important relief for all current and future new graduates coping with the high cost of living.Doubling the GST Credit for Six Months In the coming weeks,an estimated 11 million low-and modest-income people and families will receive an additional Goods and Services

227、 Tax(GST)Credit payment.For those who need it most,inflation relief will soon be on the way to help with the cost of groceries and other essentials.Single Canadians without children will receive up to an extra$234,and couples with two children will receive up to an extra$467.Seniors will receive an

228、extra$225 on average.This payment,equivalent to doubling the GST Credit for six months,will provide$2.5 billion in additional targeted support.Current GST Credit recipients will receive this support automatically.The Canada Dental BenefitNobody should have to choose between taking their child to the

229、 dentist and putting food on the table.However,in 2018,more than one-in-five Canadians reported avoiding dental care because of the cost.As a first step towards making dental care more affordable for everyone,in September 2022,the government introduced legislation to implement the Canada Dental Bene

230、fit,which would provide eligible parents or guardians with direct,up-front tax-free payments to cover dental expenses for their children under 12-years-old.For those without dental coverage and with an annual family income under$90,000 per year,the Canada Dental Benefit will provide payments totalli

231、ng up to$1,300 per child,over the next two years.Once approved in Parliament,it is estimated that 500,000 Canadian children will benefit from this support as the government works to build a comprehensive,national dental care program by 2025.A Top-Up to the Canada Housing Benefit Everyone deserves a

232、safe and affordable place to call home,but as rents continue to rise across the country,housing is becoming unaffordable for too many modest-and low-income Canadians.That is why,in September 2022,the government introduced legislation to provide a top-up to the Canada Housing Benefit.Once approved in

233、 Parliament,this federally funded top-up to the Canada Housing Benefit,paid through the Canada Revenue Agency,will deliver a tax-free payment of$500 directly to 1.8 million low-income renters who are struggling with the cost of housing.This support is in addition to the hundreds of dollars of monthl

234、y rent support that many Canadians already receive through the program,which the federal government launched in 2020 and co-funds with provinces and territories.This payment more than doubles the governments Budget 2022 commitment,and will reach twice as many Canadians as initially promised.The fede

235、ral benefit will be available to applicants with an adjusted net income below$35,000 for families,or below$20,000 for single Canadians,who pay at least 30 per cent of their income towards rent.An Automatic Advance for the Canada Workers Benefit The Canada Workers Benefit(CWB)is a refundable tax cred

236、it that tops up the income of about 3 million of our lowest-paidand often most essentialworkers in a typical year.In Budget 2021,the government significantly expanded the CWB to support an estimated one million additional Canadians.At a time when they need it most,this means that couples are receivi

237、ng up to$2,400 more,and single workers are receiving up to$1,200 more than they received last year.The CWB is currently delivered through tax returns,meaning people who receive it need to wait until the tax year is over to receive the support that helps them pay for day-to-day essentials like grocer

238、ies and rent.Making Life More Affordable 23 The 2022 Fall Economic Statement proposes to provide$4 billion over six years,starting in 2022-23,to automatically issue advance payments of the Canada Workers Benefit to people who qualified for the benefit in the previous year,starting in July 2023 for t

239、he 2023 taxation year.Workers would receive a minimum entitlement for the year through advance payments based on income reported in the prior years tax return,and any additional entitlement for the year would be provided when filing their tax return for the year.This measure would provide,split betw

240、een three advance payments,up to$714 total for single workers,and$1,231 total for a family to help cope with the rising cost of living.Example:Jesse works at a grocery store,and makes about$25,000 per year.He received$1,200 through the Canada Workers Benefit for 2022.With the new advance payments,Je

241、sse is entitled to three quarterly advance payments of$200in July 2023,October 2023,and January 2024.At the end of the year,it is determined that he is entitled to an additional$600 in CWB for 2023,which is delivered once he files his 2023 taxes in early 2024.Eliminating Interest on Federal Student

242、and Apprentice Loans The transition from school to working life should be made easier,not harder.In 2019,when interest rates were at historic lows,the federal government acted to make student loans more affordable by reducing interest charges on student loans to the prime rate.When COVID-19 disrupte

243、d Canadians lives,students and young people were among the most affected.To support them,the government waived interest charges on student loans for two years,which helped ease the burden that many faced after graduating into an incredibly challenging job market.This support currently expires on Mar

244、ch 31,2023.And so,with life becoming more expensive for many recent graduates,the government is taking new,permanent steps to reduce the burden of student loans on young Canadians so they can invest in building their futures.The 2022 Fall Economic Statement proposes to make all Canada Student Loans

245、and Canada Apprentice Loans permanently interest-free,including those currently being repaid,beginning on April 1,2023.This change has an estimated cost of$2.7 billion over five years and$556.3 million ongoing.Half of all post-secondary students in Canada rely on student loans to help them afford th

246、e cost of tuition and essentials during their studies.An average student loan borrower will save$410 per year as a result of their loan being interest-free.They will still be able to use the Repayment Assistance Plan,allowing them to pause student loan repayment until they make at least$40,000 per y

247、ear,and reducing payments for those earning slightly above that threshold.Making Housing More AffordableThe dream of home ownership is becoming increasingly unaffordable for too many young and middle class Canadians.That is why,in addition to the top-up to the Canada Housing Benefit,the government i

248、s moving forward with its ambitious package of measures to build more homes and make housing more affordable across the country.In June 2022,Parliament passed legislation to implement the following measures:9A two-year ban on non-Canadians purchasing residential property in Canada,effective January

249、1,2023.This ban is about curbing speculation and ensuring that houses are used as homes for Canadians to live inand not used as financial assets for foreign investors.The government recently consulted on regulations that will be brought forward prior to January 1,2023,to implement the final details

250、of the ban.9A 1 per cent annual“underused housing tax”on the value of non-resident,non-Canadian owned residential property that is vacant or underused.This will help free up homes for Canadians to live in,make the housing market more affordable for Canadians,and ensure that foreign,non-resident owne

251、rs of Canadian housing pay their fair share of Canadian tax.9The application of the Goods and Services Tax/Harmonized Sales Tax(GST/HST)to all assignment sales of newly constructed or substantially renovated residential housing,effective May 7,2022.An assignment sale is when a house is resold before

252、 it has even been constructed or lived in.Applying GST/HST to assignment sales will provide certainty for all parties involved,and crack down on speculators who may be dishonest in these transactions.24 Chapter 1Following the 2022 Fall Economic Statement,the government will table legislation in Parl

253、iament to:9Create the new Tax-Free First Home Savings Account,which would give prospective first-time home buyers the ability to save up to$40,000,tax-free.Like an RRSP,contributions would be tax-deductible,and withdrawals to purchase a first homeincluding investment incomewould be non-taxable,like

254、a TFSA.Tax-free in;tax-free out.The government expects that Canadians will be able to open and begin contributing to an account in mid-2023.9Double the First-Time Home Buyers Tax Credit,which would provide up to$1,500 in direct support to home buyers,starting in 2022,to help offset increasing closin

255、g costs involved in buying a home.9Introduce a new,refundable Multigenerational Home Renovation Tax Credit,which would provide up to$7,500 in support for constructing a secondary suite for a family member who is a senior or an adult with a disability,starting January 1,2023.9Ensure that profits from

256、 flipping properties held for less than 12 months are fully taxed,starting in 2023,with certain exceptions for unexpected life events.This measure will ensure that investors who flip homes pay their fair share,and play a role in lowering housing prices for Canadians.Lowering Credit Card Transaction

257、Fees for Small BusinessesThe government intends to enter into negotiations with payment card networks,financial institutions,acquirers,payment processors,and businesses to lower credit card transaction fees for small businesses in a manner that does not adversely affect other businesses and protects

258、 existing reward points for consumers.Today,the government is publishing draft legislative amendments to the Payment Card Networks Act.Should the industry not come to an agreed solution in the months to come,the government will introduce this legislation at the earliest possible opportunity in the n

259、ew year and move forward on regulating credit card transaction fees.Rebuilding Atlantic Canada and Eastern Quebec After Hurricane Fiona Hurricane Fiona devastated parts of Atlantic Canada and Eastern Quebec,affecting families,communities,businesses,and critical infrastructure like small craft harbou

260、rs.For as long as the recovery takes,the federal government will continue to support the Canadians impacted by the storm,and help to ensure the long-term recovery of the regions that have been affected,including rural communities.On October 4,2022,the government announced the creation of the Hurrica

261、ne Fiona Recovery Fund,which will provide$300 million over two years,starting in 2022-23,including by providing$100 million from the Fund to rebuild small craft harbours and recover lost fishing gear.The government also matched donations to the Canadian Red Cross Hurricane Fiona in Canada Appeal for

262、 more than 30 days,which supports emergency services such as food and interim housing for those in need.This support is in addition to the federal governments standing commitment under the Disaster Financial Assistance Arrangements to cover up to 90 per cent of eligible provincial expenses following

263、 a disaster,including:-Evacuation,transportation,emergency food,shelter,and clothing;-Repairs to public buildings and related equipment,roads,and bridges;-Restoration or replacement of essential uninsurable principal property of people,small businesses,and farmsteads.Recognizing that recovery effort

264、s are still underway and cost estimates are in development,the 2022 Fall Economic Statement establishes a provision of$1 billion in 2022-23 in anticipation of Hurricane Fiona-related requests from provinces under the Disaster Financial Assistance Arrangements.Making Life More Affordable 25Overview o

265、f Gender-Based Analysis Plus Low income combined with other hardships such as elevated inflation,inadequate housing,lack of employment opportunities,and lack of access to services such as health care,exacerbates economic disadvantage.To help alleviate this,the government provides a range of supports

266、 and services to people and families.These measures also recognize that various identity factors such as gender,income,age,and geography can affect access to opportunities and therefore address the needs of Canadians at their different life stages and in specific circumstances.Doubling the GST Credi

267、t for Six Months will benefit households who have lower income and are more sensitive to rising inflation.Single parents will disproportionately benefit from the credit,as they represent about 4 per cent of tax filers but would receive 13 per cent of the GST Credit increase,the vast majority of whic

268、h would go to single mothers.The Automatic Advance for the Canada Workers Benefit(CWB)will disproportionately benefit young people aged 20-34,those without a post-secondary qualification,new immigrants,Indigenous Peoples,and single parents.In recognition of lower tax filing rates among Indigenous Pe

269、oples,the government has made recent investments in outreach,support,and assistance with tax filing,in an effort to improve access to benefits.Roughly half of CWB recipients in a typical year are women,such that the overall impacts of the measure are largely expected to be gender neutral.However,alm

270、ost 90 per cent of single parent families in receipt of the CWB were headed by a woman.The CWB also features a supplement for people eligible for the Disability Tax Credit.The Canada Dental Benefit will benefit children under 12 without dental coverage and their families,particularly those in low-in

271、come households.Low-income Canadians are less likely to have private dental coverage,and have both the highest level of oral health problems and the most difficulty accessing oral health care.The Top-Up to the Canada Housing Benefit will directly benefit 1.8 million low-income renters who are strugg

272、ling with the cost of housing.High shelter costs can make it harder for families to stay healthy and to support their childrens education and development.Women in particular have a somewhat higher incidence of core housing need compared to men(9.7 per cent compared to 8.2 per cent),with larger gaps

273、for single parents,racialized groups,seniors,and persons with disabilities.Permanently Eliminating Interest on Federal Student Loans will directly benefit student and apprentice loan borrowers who have left school and are currently repaying their loans,as well as post-secondary students with federal

274、 loans who will enter repayment in the future.Most beneficiaries will be Canada Student Loan borrowers,of whom 61 per cent are women.A minority will be Apprentice Loan borrowers,of whom 93 per cent are men.About 63 per cent of all Canada Student Loan recipients are under 35 years of age.Through supp

275、ort for Rebuilding Atlantic Canada and Eastern Quebec After Hurricane Fiona,the federal government will continue to respond to the immediate needs of people and businesses impacted by the storm and support the long-term recovery of the region and local economies.Studies suggest that climate disaster

276、s disproportionately impact certain groups,including Indigenous communities,seniors,women,new immigrants,and cultural minorities,as well as low-income households.In many cases,shoreline,or island communities are at a high risk of coastal flooding and living in a flood zone may be the only option for

277、 certain groups to access affordable housing.26 Chapter 1Chapter 1Making Life More Affordablemillions of dollars 2022 2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 2027-2028 Total1.Making Life More Affordable 4,369 1,301 1,295 1,324 1,374 1,387 11,050 Doubling the GST Credit for Six Months*2,475-2,47

278、5 The Canada Dental Benefit*352 454 132-938 Less:Funds Previously Provisioned in the Fiscal Framework-300-600-132-1,032A Top-Up to the Canada Housing Benefit*1,163 -1,163 Less:Funds Previously Provisioned in the Fiscal Framework-475-475An Automatic Advance for the Canada Workers Benefit-750 780 790

279、805 820 3,945 Administrative Costs 4 16 13 12 12 11 68 Eliminating Interest on Federal Student and Apprentice Loans-552 526 546 582 582 2,787 Less:Reduction in claims of the Student Loan Interest Tax Credit-21 -24-24-25-25-120Rebuilding Atlantic Canada and Eastern Quebec After Hurricane Fiona*1,150

280、150 -1,300 Additional Measures-Making Life More Affordable-1-1-1-1-1-5Extending the Residential Property Flipping Rule to Assignment Sales*-1 -1-1-1-1-5Chapter 1-Net Fiscal Impact4,369 1,300 1,294 1,323 1,373 1,386 11,045*Announced on September 13,2022.*On October 4,2022,the Government of Canada ann

281、ounced$300 million to support the Hurricane Fiona Recovery Fund.*Further details are included in Tax Measures:Supplementary Information.Jobs,Growth,and an Economy that Works for Everyone 27Chapter 2 Jobs,Growth,and an Economy That Works for EveryoneThere is no country better placed than Canada to we

282、ather the coming global economic slowdown and thrive in the years ahead.We have the most talented and resilient workforce in the world,and we are a country that skilled workers want to move to.We have the key resources the global economy needs,and as we enter an era of friendshoring and our closest

283、partners shift their strategic reliance from dictatorships to democracies,they are looking to Canada to provide them with those resources.Canadian workers need a robust industrial policy that will deliver good-paying jobs by seizing the opportunities of the net-zero economy,by attracting new private

284、 investment,and by providing key resources to the world.Investing in Canadas future is an investment in workers.The next few years are an historic opportunity for Canadaa time when we can continue building an economy that works for everyone,and create the good middle class jobs that Canadians will c

285、ount on for generations to come.But if we are to capitalize on the opportunities before us in the years to come,we need to step up and make more smart investments today.The 2022 Fall Economic Statement builds on investments made in and since Budget 2022 to grow Canadas economy,create opportunities f

286、or workers,and continue to address Canadas challenge with investment and productivity that stretches back decades.Significant further measures will be introduced in Budget 2023.The 2022 Fall Economic Statement includes:-Investments in workers that will help grow our economy and both create and maint

287、ain good jobs;-A clear commitment to ensuring Canadas global competitiveness in light of the United States recent passage of the Inflation Reduction Act by investing further in a net-zero economy that is good for workers,creates good jobs,and which will help make Canada a leader in the industries of

288、 today and tomorrow;and,-An innovation strategy that focuses on tackling the investment and productivity challenges that Canada faces.2.1 Investing in Skills for a Net-Zero EconomyAs the global economy evolves to meet new realities,like the rising demand for sustainable energy,Canadian workers will

289、be in higher demand than ever.Investments that help Canadian workers lead the way and thrive in good-paying jobs will be essential to Canadas long-term prosperity.To put workers across Canada at the forefront of building a net-zero economy,the federal government will be there to help ensure Canadian

290、s have the skills they need to succeed,and that our economy has the workers it needs to thrive.Building on Budget 2021 investments in skills development,including through the Sectoral Workforce Solutions Program,Skills for Success,and the Apprenticeship Service,the government is taking new action to

291、 ensure that Canadians have the skills they need.The 2022 Fall Economic Statement proposes to provide$250 million over five years,starting in 2023-24,to Employment and Social Development Canada to help ensure Canadian workers can thrive in a changing global economy.Specific measures include:1.The Su

292、stainable Jobs Training Centre:The Centre would bring together workers,unions,employers,and training institutions across the country to examine the skills of the labour force today,forecast future skills requirements,and develop curriculum,micro-credentials,and on-site learning to help 15,000 worker

293、s upgrade or gain new skills for jobs in a low-carbon economy.The Centre would focus on specific areas in high demand,starting with the sustainable battery industry and low-carbon building and retrofits.2.A new sustainable jobs stream under the Union Training and Innovation Program:The Union Trainin

294、g and Innovation Program supports union-based apprenticeship training in the skilled trades.Funded projects through this stream would support unions in leading the development of green skills training for workers in the trades.It is expected that 20,000 apprentices and journeypersons would benefit f

295、rom this investment.28 Chapter 23.The Sustainable Jobs Secretariat:To effectively support workers on the road to sustainable,good-paying jobs,the government will launch the Sustainable Jobs Secretariat to offer a one-stop shop for workers and employers.It will provide the most up to date information

296、 on federal programs,funding,and services across government departments as Canada works to build a low-carbon economy with opportunities for everyone.The 2022 Fall Economic Statement also proposes to provide$60 million over three years,starting in 2023-24,to create new supplemental supports to exist

297、ing federal and provincial or territorial programming.Further details on all these measures will be provided in the first half of 2023.2.2 Securing Canadas Competitiveness and Creating Good Jobs for WorkersSince 2016,the federal government has taken important steps to position Canada at the forefron

298、t of the fight against climate change,while also working to seize the economic opportunities provided by the global transition to net-zero.Canadas commitment to putting a price on pollution has provided an incentive for businesses and households to pollute less,conserve energy,and invest in low-carb

299、on technologies and services.Since 2016,the government has made significant investments to help Canadian industries transition to net-zero and to build the supply chains required for the emerging green global economy.For example:-Through the$8-billion Net Zero Accelerator,the government is supportin

300、g key anchor investments that will build a world-class electric vehicle and battery ecosystem in Canada.-Recognizing that critical minerals are central to major global industries and clean technologies,the government also committed$3.8 billion in Budget 2022 to implement Canadas first Critical Miner

301、als Strategy.This builds on the governments efforts to enhance the electric vehicle value chainfrom mining to batteries and electric vehicle assembly.Investments like these have helped Canada attract new investment from around the world,including new agreements on electric vehicle manufacturing and

302、critical minerals in 2022.However,it is clear that Canada will need to do even more to secure our competitive advantage and continue creating opportunities for Canadian workers.This challenge has become even more pressing with the United States recent passage of the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA).Sinc

303、e 2015,the government has been making foundational investments in clean technology,many of which the U.S.is now doing with the IRA.This U.S.legislation will play an important role in the global fight against climate change and will further accelerate the building of sustainable North American supply

304、 chains.Importantly,the IRAs“Buy North American”policy for critical minerals and electric vehicle tax credits is also good news for Canadian workers and Canadian companies.But while the IRA will undoubtedly accelerate the ongoing transition to a net-zero North American economy,it also offers enormou

305、s financial supports to firms that locate their production in the United Statesfrom electric vehicle battery production,to hydrogen,to biofuels,and beyond.Without new measures to keep pace with the IRA,Canada risks being left behind.Building on Canadas world-class value propositionour stable politic

306、al system,vast access to resources,low-cost electricity,and a highly skilled workforcethe government is steadfast in its commitment to respond to the IRA and ensure that Canada remains a first-choice destination for businesses to invest and create jobs.The government is committed to taking the actio

307、ns needed to provide a level playing field between Canada and the United States.As a first step in Canadas response,the government is launching the Canada Growth Fund,which will help to attract billions of dollars in new private capital to create good-paying jobs and support Canadas economic transfo

308、rmation,as well as bringing forward two new measures to support the adoption of clean technology across Canada.Significant additional actions will be announced in Budget 2023.Jobs,Growth,and an Economy that Works for Everyone 29Snapshot of Recent Major Investment Decisions in CanadaOver the past yea

309、r,a number of significant investment commitments have been made in Canada,which will help to build the economy of the future.Some examples include:9March:Honda Canada announced its plan to invest nearly$1.4 billion to retool its manufacturing operations in Alliston,Ontario,to launch the next generat

310、ion of hybrid-electric vehicles,supported by$131.6 million in federal funding.9April:General Motors of Canada announced its plan to invest over$2 billion at its Oshawa,Ontario,assembly plant and its CAMI assembly plant in Ingersoll,Ontario.The investment is supported by$259 million from the federal

311、government to help advance the electrification of Canadas automotive sector.9May:Stellantis announced its plan to invest in a multi-billion dollar project to support plants in Windsor and Brampton,Ontario,to implement flexible vehicle platforms at both plants and increase its production of electric

312、vehicles,with support of up to$529 million from the federal government.9June:The government announced up to$100 million in support to minimize the carbon footprint and improve worker safety at BHPs$7.5 billion Jansen Stage 1 mine in Saskatchewan,the first new major potash project in Canada in over 5

313、0 years.9July:Umicore announced its plan to invest$1.5 billion in a net-zero facility that will produce essential components of electric vehicle batteries and create 1,000 jobs during construction and hundreds of permanent positions.9August:Volkswagen,Mercedes-Benz,and the federal government announc

314、ed memoranda of understanding to deepen cooperation on electric vehicles and critical minerals supply chains.9October:Rio Tinto Fer et Titane(RTFT)announced in Quebec its plans to increase its production of critical minerals,cut emissions,and help build clean technology supply chains,supported by up

315、 to$222 million in federal funding.Launching the Canada Growth FundCanadas road to achieving our climate targets,creating and maintaining good-paying jobs,and building a net-zero economy that works for everyone will require the transformation of our industrial base,the commercialization and deployme

316、nt of low-carbon technologies and resources,and the continued growth of clean technology businesses across Canada.Canada has an opportunity to lead the way on the road to net-zero and ensure that Canadian workers can benefit from good jobs for decades to come.However,this will require investment on

317、a scale that government alone cannot provide.There are trillions of dollars in private capital waiting to be spent in creating the good jobs and prosperity for workers that a net-zero economy will bring,and Canada is competing with other countries to attract the private investment we need.To succeed

318、,Canada needs to address two challenges.First,we need to incentivize companies to take risks and invest in cutting edge technology in Canada.Second,we need to keep pace with a growing list of jurisdictions which are using public funding to attract private capital and to create the jobs and prosperit

319、y for workers that accompany itfrom the United States to the European Union and beyond.Budget 2022 announced the governments intention to create a Canada Growth Fund that will help to attract private capital to invest in building a thriving,sustainable Canadian economy with thousands of new,good-pay

320、ing jobs.The 2022 Fall Economic Statement outlines the design,operations,and investment strategy of the Growth Fund.The mandate of the Growth Fund will be to make investments that attract substantial private sector investment in Canadian businesses and projects to help seize the opportunities provid

321、ed by a net-zero economy.The Growth Funds investments will help meet the following important national economic policy goals:-Reduce emissions and achieve Canadas climate targets;30 Chapter 2-Accelerate the deployment of key technologies,such as low-carbon hydrogen and carbon capture,utilization,and

322、storage(CCUS);-Scale up companies that will create jobs,drive productivity and clean growth,and encourage the retention of intellectual property in Canada;and,-Capitalize on Canadas abundance of natural resources and strengthen critical supply chains to secure Canadas future economic and environment

323、al well-being.The Growth Fund will make investments that offset risks to unlock private capital.To do this,the Growth Fund will invest on a concessionary basis.The Growth Fund will be a financial solution provider that will use a flexible suite of investment tools,including but not limited to conces

324、sional loans and contracts for difference.Such contracts provide a more predictable environment for decision making about long-term investments by reducing price and other risks.For example,carbon contracts for difference are a tool that ensures businesses can plan long-term investments in decarboni

325、zation and clean technologies based on a predictable price on carbon pollution and carbon credits.This investment flexibility will enable the Growth Fund to tailor a specific investment based on a project or companys need and riskall with a view to unlocking private investment and the creation of ne

326、w jobs in Canada.In order to maximize the Growth Funds effectiveness,it will be operated independently from government by a team of professional investors reporting to an expert board of directors.To ensure public transparency and accountability,the government will establish a market-leading reporti

327、ng framework for:investment policies;deal selection and application processes;Environmental,Social,and Governance(ESG)compliance;actual investments and,measuring performance of the Growth Fund against its mandate.The Growth Fund will be launched by the end of 2022,initially as a subsidiary of the Ca

328、nada Development Investment Corporation(CDEV),so that it can immediately begin to make the critical investments needed to meet Canadas climate and economic goals.The government will take steps to put in place a permanent,independent structure for the Growth Fund,in the first half of 2023.Further det

329、ails about the mandate,operations,financial instruments,investment approaches,and performance frameworks that will guide the Growth Fund can be found in the related Department of Finance backgrounder.An Investment Tax Credit for Clean TechnologiesHelping Canadian companies adopt clean technologies w

330、ill create jobs,ensure Canadian businesses remain globally competitive,and reduce Canadas emissions at the same time.In Budget 2022,the federal government announced that the Department of Finance would engage with experts to establish an investment tax credit of up to 30 per cent for investments in

331、clean technologies,with a focus on net-zero technologies,battery storage solutions,and clean hydrogen.Following the adoption of the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States,the need for a competitive clean technology tax credit in Canada is more important than ever.The 2022 Fall Economic Stateme

332、nt proposes a refundable tax credit equal to 30 per cent of the capital cost of investments in:-Electricity Generation Systems,including solar photovoltaic,small modular nuclear reactors,concentrated solar,wind,and water(small hydro,run-of-river,wave,and tidal);-Stationary Electricity Storage System

333、s that do not use fossil fuels in their operation,including but not limited to:batteries,flywheels,supercapacitors,magnetic energy storage,compressed air storage,pumped hydro storage,gravity energy storage,and thermal energy storage;-Low-Carbon Heat Equipment,including active solar heating,air-source heat pumps,and ground-source heat pumps;and,-Industrial zero-emission vehicles and related chargin