1、WORKING PAPER|November 2022|1CONTENTSExecutive Summary.1Introduction.2Findings:Solution Pathways for Scaling and Accelerating Solar Investment at the Country Level .8Recommendations for Delivering Investment at Scale .19Conclusion.21Appendix A.Bangladesh Case Study.22Appendix B.Tonga Case Study.23Ap

2、pendix C.Argentina Case Study.25Appendix D.Zambia Case Study .26Appendix E.Egypt Case Study.28Appendix F.Participating Experts.29Endnotes.32References .33Acknowledgments.39Working Papers contain preliminary research,analysis,findings,and recommendations.They are circulated to stimulate timely discus

3、sion and critical feedback,and to influence ongoing debate on emerging issues.Version 2.0,November 2022Suggested Citation:Layke,J.,L.Van Wie McGrory,X.Chen,J.Corfee-Morlot,and K.Kennedy.2022.“Our Solar Future:Roadmap to Mobilize USD 1 Trillion by 2030.”Working Paper.Washington,DC:World Resources Ins

4、titute.Available online at doi.org/10.46830/wriwp.22.00020.WORKING PAPEROur Solar Future Roadmap to Mobilize USD 1 Trillion by 2030Jennifer Layke,Laura Van Wie McGrory,Xixi Chen,Jan Corfee-Morlot,and Kevin KennedyHIGHLIGHTS Scaling solar energy can help deliver clean,affordable,and reliable energy a

5、ccess worldwide.Average annual investment in solar solutions needs to double from 2021 through 2030 if the world is to achieve the Paris climate goals and the UN Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs).Targeted action is needed to ensure that developing countries and emerging markets receive an equitabl

6、e share of investment.Across all market segments,major barriers to scaling up solar include a lack of enabling policies and regulations,a lack of bankable project pipe-lines,and risk-management challenges.Governments can take action immediately,in partnership with commercial banks and development fi

7、nance institutions,to address these barriers and to replicate and scale effective solutions.Broader international collaboration is also needed to scale up available resources,manage risk at scale,speed up transactions and standardize good practices,support innovative business models,and develop sys-

8、tems to monitor commitments,track progress,and measure impacts of solar investment.EXECUTIVE SUMMARYIn the decisive years between now and 2030,solar energy will be essential to our ability to reach global development and climate goals.This roadmap provides guidance for rapidly and equitably scaling

9、solar investment and deployment across the globe.BackgroundThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)points to solar energy as the mitigation option with the highest potential contribution to net greenhouse gas emission reduction.Falling costs for solar energy and battery INTERNATIONALSOLAR

10、ALLIANCE2|energy storage have made solar cost-competitive with fossil fuels and other renewable energy solutions.Tapping into abundant solar resources in developing and emerging economies will improve energy access and security and can help achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)(i.e.,SDG

11、-7 on affordable and clean energy and SDG-13 on curbing climate change).The International Energy Agency(IEA)and BloombergNEF(BNEF)project that,to meet net zero emission goals,solar needs to become the largest single global energy source by 2050.To achieve this growth,the International Renewable Ener

12、gy Agency(IRENA)and BNEF estimate that average annual solar investment through 2030 needs to more than double.Scaling up solar investment and deployment faces three primary barriers:the lack of conducive energy sector planning,enabling policies,and regulations;an inadequate pipeline of bankable proj

13、ects with creditworthy off-takers;and risk-management challenges.These barriers affect countries to different degrees depending on their investment readiness and market conditions.This roadmap provides guidance that can accelerate and scale up solar deployment and reduce regional investment gaps by

14、equitably mobilizing US$1 trillion of investment in solar energy solutions by 2030.It has been prepared by World Resources Institute(WRI)and the International Solar Alliance(ISA),in partnership with Bloomberg Philanthropies and in collaboration with CONCITO,the Investment Fund for Developing Coun-tr

15、ies,and the World Climate Foundation.This roadmap builds on reports by IEA,IRENA,IPCC,and other clean energy and climate institutions,as well as consulta-tions with more than 100 solar development and finance experts around the globe.It identifies and prioritizes ways to overcome barriers to scaling

16、 solar investment,particularly in developing countries and emerging economies.It focuses on solutions with the greatest potential to catalyze private investment;improve energy access and energy security;and provide other socioeconomic benefits.These solutions include actions that countries can pursu

17、e in four solar market segments:off-grid and decentralized solar,utility-scale and grid-connected solar,energy storage and grid flexibility infrastructure,and advanced solar and storage technologies.To address barriers that cannot be solved at the country level,this roadmap offers recommendations fo

18、r new collaborative actions to be taken by international institutions,governments,and private sector actors.FindingsGovernmentsoften in collaboration with national develop-ment banks,commercial banks,and development finance institutionscan take solar investment to scale by setting deployment targets

19、 and helping to improve investment readi-ness,manage risk,and strengthen bankable project pipelines.They can create conditions that make investing in solar more attractive and profitable,particularly in developing and emerging economies.Barriers that cannot be overcome at the country level require n

20、ew types of collaboration among international institutions to enhance solar investment and deployment goals;coordinating and scaling risk-mitigation efforts;promoting good practices in sector regulation;standardizing systems for tracking progress,performance,and impact;demonstrating credible solar p

21、roject pipelines;developing innovative rating tools for funds designed for emerging markets;and supporting the global scale-up of vendor finance.INTRODUCTIONDecarbonizing the power sector and energy use is vital to achieving the Paris climate goals and the UN Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs).Clea

22、n energy transition scenarios by the International Energy Agency(IEA),International Renewable Energy Agency(IRENA),and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)(IEA 2021a;IRENA 2022b;IPCC 2022)suggest that this will require a dramatic increase in renewableand particularly solarenergy deploymen

23、t over the next few decades,especially in developing countries and emerging economies.The IPCC points to solar energy as the mitigation option with the highest potential contribution to net greenhouse gas(GHG)emission reduction(IPCC 2022).Life-cycle greenhouse emissions(in grams of carbon dioxide eq

24、uivalent per kilowatt-hour,or gCO2e/kWh)of solar to 2050which include embodied energy from the manufacture of solar photovoltaic(PV)panelsare estimated to be only about 6 percent of the emissions from coal and 8 percent of emissions from gas,even with carbon capture and storage systems in place for

25、these fossil fuel sources(Evans 2017;Pehl et al.2017).Where it displaces power and electricity generation from coal,natural gas,diesel,and oil-fired plants,solar also reduces harmful air pollutants such as nitrogen oxides,sulfur dioxide,particulate matter,and mercury(NREL 2008;IRENA 2016a).WORKING P

26、APER|November 2022|3Our Solar FutureDecentralized solar energy is uniquely suited to provide affordable energy access to hundreds of millions of people.Off-grid and mini-grid solar PV technologies offer the potential to bring new electricity access to 425 million to 581 million people by 2030(UN 202

27、1a).Steep cost declines for crystalline solar PV moduleswhich fell by 8891 percent between 2009 and 2021(IRENA 2022c)as well as utility-scale solar energy technologies(see Box 1)have made solar cost-competitive with fossil fuels and other renewable energy options.According to the IPCC,solar energy h

28、as the“largest technical potential of all energy sources”(IPCC 2012).Many develop-ing countries have high untapped solar energy potential(World Bank 2020).Adding solar generation capacity to the power grid,along with other renewables,can help countries lower their reli-ance on fossil fuel imports an

29、d reduce associated price volatility.Combining grid-supplied with decentralized solar technologies can also help build the resilience and reliability of power supply for households and businesses where grid supply is limited or unreliable;for example,by replacing diesel-powered backup gen-erators or

30、 diesel use in agriculture and rural areas(IPCC 2022;Babajide and Brito 2021).The last decade has seen significant progress in solar investment and deployment.Global annual investment in solar more than doubled between 2010 and 2021,and global installed capacity of solar PV increased 21-fold during

31、the same period,from 40 to 843 gigawatts(GW)(Figure 1)(IRENA 2022a;BNEF 2022).Solar energys share in the global electricity mix has risen from a negligible 0.2 percent in 2010 to about 3.7 percent(Statista 2022).In 2021,global investment in renewable energy exceeded US$417 billion,with roughly halfa

32、n estimated$205 billionfocused on solar development(BNEF 2022).IRENA and BNEF both estimate that average annual investment in solar PV between 2021 and 2030 needs to more than double(BNEF 2021a;IRENA 2022b)to achieve the needed level of growth.Toward that objective,the International Solar Alliance w

33、as launched by India and France in 2015 to ramp up investment in and deployment of solar energy,with an aim to mobilize$1 trillion of investment in solar energy solutions by 2030.Roadmap to Mobilize USD 1 Trillion by 2030 This roadmap identifies priority actions to scale solar investment to meet the

34、$1 trillion goal and ensure that investment reaches countries and communities whose energy needs are unmet today.It includes guidance to help governments,financial institutions,and the broader international community address the barriers to scaling solar and equitably achieving global development an

35、d climate goals.The roadmap supplements existing resources and initiatives,including the International Finance Corporation(IFC)/World Bank Group Scaling Solar program,the Ease of Doing Solar reports published by Ernest&Young(EY),and ISAs Country Partnership Framework.Its goal is to aggregate the kno

36、wledge from these and other sources and identify priority actions that will have the greatest impact on scaling solar investment.The roadmap makes two principal contributions:Proposed solution pathways consisting of priority actions that countries can take in the near termalone or with support from

37、financial institutionsto rapidly scale up solar investment and make it less risky and more profitable in developing and emerging economies.To illustrate how these measures work,and how they could be replicated,the roadmap offers solution cases:examples of successful implementation of specific soluti

38、ons;and country examples:analyses of individual countries experience implementing various elements of the solution pathway.Box 1|Costs for utility-scale solar energy are plummeting The International Energy Agency calculates that“in a significant majority of countries worldwide,utility-scale solar ph

39、otovoltaic(PV)is the least costly option for adding new electricity capacity.”The levelized cost of electricity(LCOE)from utility-scale solar PV fell 85 percent between 2010 and 2020,from US$381 per mega-watt-hour(MWh)to$57/MWh,and prices of lithium-ion battery packs declined approximately 85 percen

40、t from 2010 to 2018.New solar technologies,such as Perovskite solar modules,offer further price reductions and conversion efficiency gains.Although global supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic,the sourcing of polysilicon raw materials,and geopolitical conflicts have caused the cos

41、ts of solar PV to increase 1020 percent since 2020,the global weighted average LCOE from utility-scale solar PV continued to fall by 13 percent year-on-year to$48/MWh,bringing the total decrease in LCOE since 2020 to nearly 88 per-cent.Projections by the International Renewable Energy Agency show co

42、ntinued cost declines over the long term.Sources:IRENA 2019,2020,2022c;BNEF 2019;IEA 2022a,2022b.4|Figure 1|Cumulative global solar installed capacity(GW)and annual solar investment(billion US$)from 2010 to 2021Sources:IRENA 2022b;BNEF 2022a.4072329539048358573811701

43、34000200300400500600700800900200001920202021Billions US$GWAnnual solar investment(billions US$)Cumulative global solar installed capacity(GW)138 Recommendations for new types of collaboration among international institutions to address barriers

44、to scaling solar that cannot be solved at the country level.Methodology The findings and recommendations in the roadmap build on two sources:Published reports by development finance institutions(DFIs),other international institutions,and companies respected in the clean energy field.The roadmap team

45、 aggregated information on investment gaps and trends,barriers,and solutions for solar and other renewable energy sources from recent reports by the IEA,IRENA,BNEF,IPCC,World Bank,EY,IFC,the Climate Policy Initiative(CPI),DNV,the Global Off-Grid Lighting Association(GOGLA),and Wood Mackenzie,among o

46、thers.Consultations with more than 100 solar development and finance experts who participated in eight targeted consultations between August 2021 and May 2022.These consultations were virtual,interactive meetings organized and led by WRI.Each consultation focused on solar investment in a specific ge

47、ographic region(Africa,Asia-Pacific,Latin America and Caribbean),market segment(off-grid solar,utility-scale solar,advanced solar technologies),or sectoral group(private sector).Each consultation included 1530 participants,consisting of decision-makers and high-level practitioners in various sectors

48、(government,international development finance,private investors or developers,and research and other nongovernmental organizations).The participants were selected based on recommendations from ISA,WRI,and the projects Advisory Group,as well as through research to identify prominent individuals in th

49、e field.The consultations addressed the following topics:What are the key barriers to solar investment in different regions and country contexts?WORKING PAPER|November 2022|5Our Solar FutureWhat private or public sector interventions are needed to address the barriers?What mechanisms have been the m

50、ost successful at mitigating risk,improving investment readiness,and building project pipelines?Where are new,collaborative approaches needed?The roadmap team analyzed the main gaps in solar investment in various market segments and geographic regions as well as priority solutions for closing them.I

51、t selected these solu-tions based on demonstrated success and scale-up potential,particularly in developing countries and emerging economies;likelihood of catalyzing private investment;and ability to improve energy access and energy security and deliver other socioeconomic benefits.Trends,Gaps,and O

52、pportunitiesThis roadmap identifies opportunities for overcoming barriers to scaling solar in the following four market segments:Off-grid and decentralized solar applications are important for affordably reaching 785 million people who still need energy access and another 2.6 billion who need reliab

53、le grids(IRENA 2022e),as well as for helping to decarbonize the grid in many locations.These solar applications include solar lighting devices,solar home systems(SHS),and household applications that are typically below 50 kilowatts peak to boost clean energy access;mini-grid and household or commerc

54、ial rooftop solar PV installations and stand-alone solar parks for areas with low or unreliable grid coverage,or where policies such as net metering incentivize connections under the grid;and larger decentralized solar installations that are off the centralized electrical grid system for dedicated u

55、ses for rural health services and clinics,schools,and agriculture(e.g.,irrigation,cold storage,food processing).Off-grid renewables represent only about 1 percent of the overall finance currently deployed for projects to expand energy access in developing countries(CPI and IRENA 2020).Accord-ing to

56、the Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report(GOGLA and World Bank 2020),expected business-as-usual investments in off-grid solar($1.7 billion to$2.2 billion from 2020 to 2024)are far below the levels needed to achieve universal energy access;reaching this goal will require$6.6 billion to$11 billion in ad

57、ditional solar finance between 2020 and 2030,including up to$7.7 billion in investment for off-grid solar companies,and up to$3.4 billion of public funding to bridge the affordability gap.Utility-scale and grid-connected solar includes power generation grid-connected projects that are owned by gover

58、nment,state-owned enterprises(SOEs),or utilities and are at least 1 megawatt(MW)in size,with the private sector as equipment suppliers and solar engineering,procurement,and construction contractors;privately owned independent power producers(IPPs)selling power under long-term contracts from solar pr

59、ojects procured by the government,SOE,or utilityeither through auctions or self-developed by an IPP and awarded on a sole source basis;and privately developed and owned projects with commercial,industrial,or small and medium enterprise(SME)off-takers and contracts directly negotiated between supplie

60、rs and large consumers.With the addition of sufficient storage to address intermittent generation issues,utility-scale solar projects offer a viable path-way to accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels,reduce energy cost,and improve reliability of electricity supply.Construction of large solar PV

61、 plants often takes less than a year(IFC 2015),compared with an average of about four years for thermal plants(IEA 2019),offering the opportunity to quickly scale clean energy to meet growing demand.In 2020,utility-scale PV accounted for 58 percent of new on-grid solar capacity built,and BNEF estima

62、tes that this share will grow at an annual rate of 16 percent over the next 30 years(BNEF 2021b).IRENA estimates that utility-scale solar will need to account for the majority of the 450 GW of annual solar PV capacity that needs to be added by 2030 to achieve net zero emission goals,with roughly hal

63、f of this capacity growth con-centrating in Asiachiefly in China and India(IRENA 2022d).To achieve this,utility-scale solar will need to reach 4 TW,or 75 percent of total solar installed capacity by 2030,and at least 16.5 TW(84 percent of the total)by 2050(BNEF 2021a;Olson and Bakken 2022).Investmen

64、t in energy storage and grid flexibility infrastruc-tureincluding battery energy storage system(BESS)and power transmission and distribution(T&D)infrastructureis essential to connect solar energy supply to demand for energy,integrate solar energy resources into regional electricity infra-structure,a

65、nd facilitate load management.Expanding storage capacity also can defer or avoid the need for additional T&D infrastructure or extend the life of existing T&D equipment by serving a portion of peak demand(ESA 2013).Investments in 6|interregional and transcontinental high-voltage transmission systems

66、 can increase the reliability and resilience of grid-sup-plied electricity.Global investment in battery energy storage has climbed sharply and is projected to reach$18 billion in 2022doubled from 2021 and six times what it was in 2017(IEA 2022a).However,to achieve net zero emissions by 2050,BNEF est

67、imates that an average of 245 GWh of battery storage needs to be added each year globally between now and 2030more than 10 times the record-setting 24 GWh added in 2021(BNEF 2021c).IPCC scenarios to limit warming to below 1.5oC estimate that global annual investment in storage needs to average$221 b

68、illion per year between 2023 and 2032(IPCC 2022).Although public actors almost exclusively financed T&D invest-ments before 2019,participation by private actors has grown in recent years,particularly in developed countries(CPI 2021).Driven by the increasing share of variable renewable energy sources

69、,chiefly solar and wind,annual investment in grid infra-structure and flexibility is expected to rise from between$250 billion and$300 billion(the prepandemic level)to between$400 billion and$500 billion by 2030(DNV 2021).The IPCC estimates that global average investment in T&D needs to reach$549 bi

70、llion per year from 2023 to 2032 to limit warming to below 1.5oC(IPCC 2022).Investing in the development of advanced solar and storage technologies is important for scaling solar deployment in difficult-to-serve industries and locations and for addressing intermittency issues related to solar.Exampl

71、es include floating solar,which uses marine or open freshwater environments for solar generation and reduces impacts on land cover,while co-location with hydropower reservoirs can reduce evaporation and enable the complementary use of existing transmission infrastructure;agri-voltaics,which combine

72、solar PV panels with crops to enable multiple productive uses of available land;concentrating solar-thermal power;hybrid systems to complement wind energy,solar in conjunction with storage from electric vehicles(EVs),and EV charging stations;solar power as an input for new clean energy sources,notab

73、ly green hydrogen production;and new solar materials(e.g.,bifacial modules,higher-efficiency heterojunction technology,Perovskite),advances in tracker technology and solar software,and new battery chemistries that offer potential for future improvements in the cost and efficiency of global solar dep

74、loyment.While the scale of deployment for many of these advanced solar and storage technologies is small compared to other mainstream solar applications today,the momentum of growth is strong and potential is high.For example,in 2020 floating solar represented less than 0.5 percent of total global s

75、olar PV installation(IFC 2020)and 1 percent of annual solar demand,but demand is expected to grow by an average of 22 percent annually by 2024(Wood Mackenzie 2019).The market size of floating solar is also expected to grow more than eightfold by 2027,reaching$3.2 billion(Research and Markets 2022a).

76、Regional investment gaps and opportunities for scaling Between 2016 and 2020,all emerging markets and developing economies,excluding China,accounted for only 20 percent of global investment in solar energy.The IEA estimates that this share needs to reach 36 percent by 2030 to limit the increase in g

77、lobal average temperatures to well below 2oC(IEA 2021b).Energy demand in these economies continues to grow,driven by rising populations,standards of living,and temperatures.Tapping abundant solar resourcesparticularly in sub-Saharan Africa,Southeast Asia,and the Latin America and Carib-bean regionca

78、n help meet this demand while limiting climate impacts.Africa:About 44 percent of Africas population lacks access to electricity.In 2020,77 percent of the global population without access was in sub-Saharan Africa(SSA)(IEA 2022b)but this region attracts less than 5 percent of global energy investmen

79、t(IEA 2022c).Although Africa has 60 percent of the worlds solar resources(IEA 2022c),the continent accounted for only 1.7 percent of global electricity generation from solar PV in 2020(IRENA 2022b).The IEA estimates that achieving full modern energy access and system resilience in Africa by 2030 wou

80、ld require$65 billion of additional annual investment in the region(IEA 2022c).Current policies and plans in SSA are projected to bring this region to about 49 GW of solar capacity by 2030 and 85 GW by 2050.However,to meet the Paris goals,IRENAs Transforming Energy Scenario estimates that solar capa

81、city in SSA would need to grow 60 percent more than this projected amount by 2030,reaching 79 GWand six times as much by 2050,reaching 548 GW(IRENA 2020).WORKING PAPER|November 2022|7Our Solar Future Asia:While most countries in the region have high average electricity access rates,large variations

82、exist in energy access and reliability in many countries,and access gaps persist in Cambodia and Myanmar.Most economies in the region have more than doubled in size since 2000,resulting in surging energy demand.Southeast Asia invested about$12 billion per year in all renewable energy from 2016 to 20

83、20.The IEA estimates that while$9.4 billion of investment in solar and wind is needed from 2026 to 2030 to achieve current national clean energy goals,nearly three times as much,$27.3 billion,is needed to limit the temperature to well below 2C(IEA 2022d;IEA 2022e).Current policies and plans aim for

84、1,445 GW of solar capacity by 2030 and 3,236 GW by 2050.However,IRENAs Transforming Energy Scenario estimates that to meet the Paris goals 43 percent more capacity(for a total of 2,064 GW)would be needed by 2030 and 50 percent more(a total of 4,837 GW)would be needed by 2050(IRENA 2020).Latin Americ

85、a and the Caribbean:In 2020,68 percent of the regions electricity generation came from renewable sourcesbut the majority of this(53 percent of total electricity generation)was from hydropower(IRENA 2022a),whose reliability is lessened by climate change.For example,Brazils 2016 drought resulted in bl

86、ackouts and forced the country to rely on thermoelectric plants.Despite the regions abundant sunlight,solars share in power generation is only 17 percent of the renewable energy contribution(IRENA 2019).While the overall region has an average 98 percent energy access rate,there are still pockets of

87、low access:17 million Latin Americans lack access to electricity(IEA 2021c).Although current policies and plans in Latin America and the Caribbean are projected to bring this region to about 76 GW of solar capacity by 2030 and 177 GW by 2050,IRENAs Transforming Energy Scenario estimates that to meet

88、 the Paris goals solar capacity in the region needs to grow 42 percent more than this projected amount by 2030,reaching 108 GWand almost 60 percent more by 2050,reaching 281 GW(IRENA 2020).Barriers to Scaling Solar InvestmentResearch and consultations for this roadmap highlighted three overarching b

89、arriers to scaling up solar investment.While these barriers are intertwined and share elements,the categories below provide a useful framework for the solutions presented in the roadmap.LACK OF ENERGY SECTOR PLANNING,ENABLING POLICIES,AND REGULATIONS CONDUCIVE TO SOLAR INVESTMENT,DEPLOYMENT,AND OPER

90、ATION AT SCALEScaling up solar requires policy and regulatory structures that foster investment in renewable energy.Barriers to investment include a lack of clear energy planning or procurement policies(e.g.,duration of feed-in tariffs,structure of power auctions),a lack of coordination among govern

91、ment ministries that can result in project delays,and inconsistent tariff policies that can discourage private developers and investors.Entrenched regula-tory and institutional structures in the power sector can also limit new market entrants for solar.LACK OF BANKABLE PROJECTS A pipeline of bankabl

92、e projectsprojects with risk-return profiles that meet investors criteria and can thus secure financingis necessary to build momentum for scaling up solar investment and deployment.Underwriting solar project development is difficult because banks and investors are often unfamiliar with solar technol

93、ogy and uncertain about the regu-latory environment.Creditworthy utility off-takers are scarce in many countries as well.Small market size,and a lack of start-up capital and financial instruments tailored for local consumers,can pose additional challenges,especially for small island nations and othe

94、r small countries.Another constraint is the lack of programs and resources designed to address these challengesincluding solar market and project feasibility studies,sectoral training,and project preparation facilities.Limited private sector experience with solar in many developing countries creates

95、 a need for development finance to take on early-stage risk and encourage private investors and developers.RISK-MANAGEMENT CHALLENGESCost-benefit and risk analyses can discourage solar investment.Solar investors and developers face a range of risks:Liquidity risk,or the potential inability to meet s

96、hort-term debt obligations.Currency convertibility risk,or the risk that local currency cashflows cannot be converted into hard currencies.Foreign exchange(FX)risks,or the risk that fluctuations in exchange rates will negatively impact the profitability and feasibility of an investment in the eyes o

97、f a foreign investor.Regulatory risks associated with changes in local energy laws or regulations.Political risk related to policy instability or changes and potential expropriation.8|Off-taker credit risk in markets where utilities and other counterparties do not have strong financial performance o

98、r a track record of fulfilling specific contractual obligations.Financial risks,including market conditions and other factors that adversely affect profitability.Supply chain risks related to potential shortages or delays in obtaining solar equipment and materials.Lack of financial products:many fin

99、ancial institutions prefer to invest in traded and liquid financial instruments(bonds or stocks or other traded financial instruments)that are not yet available for local or smaller solar industries.In addition,lending assessments are often based on asset-backed lending structures that discourage in

100、vestment in high-risk sectors.These real and perceived risks can raise the cost of capital for solar projects,particularly in developing countries,where the average interest cost of external borrowing is three times that in developed countries(Spiegel and Schwank 2022).A variety of financial tools h

101、ave been developed to miti-gate such risks,including first loss,credit,and partial risk guarantees,and blended finance.First loss guarantees,which essentially take the first loss on a loan,help build credibility and confidence among creditors.Partial credit guarantees,often from international financ

102、ial institutions,reduce risks on bonds and loans by promising to pay the principal and/or interest up to a predetermined amount.And partial risk guarantees protect private lenders or investors from losses in case a government(or government-owned entity)fails to fulfill its commitments related to a p

103、rivate project.Blended finance uses public fundsincluding development finance and philanthropic fundsto mobilize private capital by accepting early-stage risk that the private sector is unwilling to absorb(OECD 2022).These financial tools are not used at the scale needed to significantly accelerate

104、solar investment.An IRENA study found that the use of guarantee instruments for renewable energy projects accounts for only 4 percent of the value of total infrastructure risk mitigation issued by international financial institutions.Some organizations report that they have no experience deploying r

105、isk-mitigation instruments for renewable energy projects,and most of the guarantees used are to support larger-scale projects(IRENA 2016b).The World Bank also has long noted that partial credit guarantees,blended finance,and other risk instruments face scaling barriers,including cumber-some implemen

106、tation processes and a lack of capacity and awareness among project developers(World Bank 2009).FINDINGS:SOLUTION PATHWAYS FOR SCALING AND ACCELERATING SOLAR INVESTMENT AT THE COUNTRY LEVEL Numerous near-term actions at the country levelwhich can be taken by governments alone or in collaboration wit

107、h utilities,national development banks,commercial banks,and development finance institutionshave proved effective in overcoming barriers to scaling solar.Countries have historically succeeded at adopting new clean energy frameworks through a combination of target setting,policy reform,and DFI financ

108、e to crowd in private capital(Box 2).Progress has been uneven.For example,while almost three-quarters of the emerging markets surveyed for Climatescope 2020 have set clean energy targets,few have implemented strong policies conducive to clean energy deployment.The solution pathways below describe pr

109、iority actions needed in each of the four solar market segments to accelerate progress toward achieving country-level solar or clean energy targets.Each pathway provides a menu of available solutions that have proved effective for that market segment in various country contexts.Some similarities exi

110、st among the actions listed for dif-ferent market segments;this highlights how certain actions can help address barriers in multiple market segments.Figures 25 provide summaries of priority actions(by actor)for each market segment and indicate how these actions address the three main barriers to sca

111、ling solar.Solution pathway for off-grid and decentralized solarIn addition to the broad barriers discussed in the introduction,off-grid and decentralized solar solutions face specific hurdles related to their unique markets,small transaction sizes,and financing models.Solar home systems and solar d

112、evice markets have grown quickly in some countries with the use of PAYGo and other consumer financing business models,but affordability is still a barrier,and many small-scale,off-grid markets rely on government subsidies(GOGLA and World Bank 2020).Finan-ciers of small SHS,which can allow millions o

113、f households to own low-cost systems,face additional obstacles in figuring out how to process millions of transactions and managing the portfolios that arise.Uncertainty about national energy planning also can constrain growth in this sector,since unexpected grid WORKING PAPER|November 2022|9Our Sol

114、ar Futureexpansion can delay or jeopardize off-grid solar investments and create stranded assets that deter future investment.The following off-grid and decentralized solar solution path-way highlights priority actions for various actors to address these barriers and mobilize solar investment in thi

115、s market segment.National government Set national energy access targets and clarify rural electrification and grid extension plans,including solar deployment targets and time lines.This enables businesses to assess the market and consumers to assess whether to purchase systems in advance of planned

116、grid extension.Governments should use available online data platforms to inform energy planning,such as the Energy Access Explorer,an open-source energy access mapping platform available for Africa and Asia.Develop clear and consistent tariff policies and solar incentives,including regulations and p

117、ricing for both suppliers and consumers,as well as net-metering or net-billing schemes(see Solution example 1).This is especially important for SHS and rooftop solar purchased on credit to minimize the risk that policies and pricing will change during the repayment period.Standardize government proc

118、urement mechanisms to facilitate scaling in purchasing.Governments can plan for rural electrification,purchase SHS equipment from manufacturers at scale,and act as wholesalers to local solar installers and distributers.They can also manage import logistics to drive down unit costs and provide more p

119、redictable markets.Create project incubators to test new business models and offer low-cost or no-cost start-up capital and project preparation assistance for new players in this market segment.Box 2|Development of new clean energy frameworks:Elements of successBased on BNEF analysis in support of t

120、his roadmap,the following enabling conditions and actions have historically accelerated prog-ress across most country contexts:Governments implement policy reforms to provide clarity to investors on their nations vision for the power sector,notably through binding renewable energy targets and planni

121、ng for grid expansion,renewables capacity,and rural electrification,with targets for solar electrification.Reforms include regulations and policies for renewable energy procurement and tariffication(e.g.,standard power purchase agreements PPAs through auctions or feed-in tariffs FiTs)to improve mark

122、et access and reduce bureaucracy.Governments may also offer investors fiscal incentives in the form of capital subsidies,grants or rebates,investment tax credits,tax reductions,or production tax credits.Such government reforms may be supported by international partners to incentivize renewable inves

123、tment in the grid and off-grid sectors.Developers often count on the support of international development bankswhich are comfortable taking higher risks and can offer investment at lower costto help finance the earliest projects.Such risk assumption from development banks or other international part

124、ners may take the form of guarantees or insurance,first-loss capital,or other forms of“blended”finance,all designed to attract co-finance from private investors.After the first projects are built,investors perceptions of risk tend to diminish,private capital starts to“crowd in,”and the need for deve

125、lopment finance fades.Source:BNEF 2021b.See also Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy on policy and regulatory reforms needed to support and guide countries in their reform processes;https:/rise.esmap.org/indicators#pillar-renewable-energy.Solution example 1|Residential rooftop solar policie

126、s in MexicoThe Government of Mexico set a target to produce more than one-third of its electricity from clean energy by 2030,with a large portion slated to come from solar.To support this goal,the government adopted net-metering and net-billing schemes,enabling customers to install rooftop solar to

127、meet their own energy needs and sell excess solar power to the grid,receiving credit against future consumption.As a result of these efforts and Inter-American Development Bank(IDB)financing support for solar installations,between 2018 and 2019 residential rooftop installations in Mexico grew 12 per

128、cent and rooftop solar capacity grew 22 percent.Source:Research and Markets 2022b.10|Central and national development banks Regulate and lead green financing practices to mobilize capital through credit operations,collateral policies,asset purchases,green taxonomies,and green bond guidance,including

129、 for off-grid solar.Allocate a percentage of loans for solar projects(national development banks).This can help shift incentives for banks that otherwise tend to avoid lending for these businesses or projects because they consider them exceptional or risky and assign them higher interest rates.Such

130、allocations would encourage the use of currently underutilized World Bank and other DFI facilities that lend to governments(for on-lending to SHS businesses and suppliers),since the DFIs subsidized interest rates and TA programs would provide attractive options for meeting the banks mandated solar p

131、ortfolios.Support training of bank staff on clean energy finance and modernization of credit risk assessments to boost capacity for solar lending(in partnership with DFIs).Provide credit to financial institutions that provide low-interest-rate financing for solar projects.Commercial banks Create a s

132、ecuritization capability for off-grid solar loans.This is a financial product that can consolidate hundredsand potentially thousandsof small loans into a single instrument that financial institutions can purchase,attracting capital from institutional investors.This allows the recycling of capital,im

133、proves liquidity,and facilitates growth of the market.Work with governments to develop and deliver subsidized loan programs for solar solutions.These loans can provide access to local finance and be particularly effective when combined with public grants and other subsidies(see Solution example 2).D

134、evelop standardized,stand-alone consumer credit programs to finance solar home systems,ensure affordability,and share risk.High volumes of low value loans can be streamlined by subsector(such as farmers and small and medium enterprises)using standardized approaches and documentation,reducing transac

135、tion costs.Once large portfolios of loans accumulate,they can be refinanced in well-structured securitizations to recycle capital and share risk.Similar standardized credit programs can support business expansion of SHS service providers.DFIs(bilateral and multilateral)Create solar lending programs

136、and concessional lines of credit with standardized risk underwriting approaches to help local banks build their solar lending portfolios.Solar lending requires banks to understand solar technology and engage with businesses(SHS suppliers,etc.)as partners who will find customers,install and maintain

137、equipment,and recycle it at end of life.Standardization can help structure solar lending to provide good commercial opportunities for the banks and signal that lending programs operate within acceptable risk parameters,helping to incentivize business activity and grow markets.Link solar lending prog

138、rams with capacity-building for local financial institution personnel and project developers so they better understand the technical risks of solar.Understanding these risks makes banks less likely to overestimate and overprice them.Partner with utilities to develop self-financing mini-grids and ens

139、ure sustainability through local capacity-building(see Solution example 3).Solution example 2|Subsidized loans for solar water pumps in India Indias Ministry of New and Renewable Energy launched the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Urja Suraksha evem Utthan Mahabhiyan(PM KUSUM)scheme in 2019,aiming to add solar

140、 and other renewable capacity of 25,750 megawatts(MW)in the country by 2022 and allocating around$4.59 billion of central public funding to support implementing agencies.The scheme includes loans to farmers to install solar pumps and other grid-connected solar.Farmers who receive loans pay only 10 p

141、ercent of the total cost up front and 30 percent more through a bank loan.The remaining costs are paid by Indias central government(30 percent)and by the state government(30 percent).By the end of July 2022,India had installed decentralized ground-mounted and grid-connected solar plants with a total

142、 capacity of 59 MW and more than 130,000 standalone or individual solar water pumps.However,the massive success of this scheme has resulted in concerns about rapid groundwater depletionan issue that will require coordi-nated planning and mitigation efforts before further replication and scaling.Sour

143、ce:GOI 2022.WORKING PAPER|November 2022|11Our Solar Future Explore co-financing and syndicate financing schemes,acting as a lead financier,and inviting local banks to participate under a pari-passu(or“equal footing”)arrangement that gives multiple lenders equal claim to the assets used to secure a l

144、oan.Align project preparation facilities to match specific types of off-grid projects.Tailoring project approaches to specific market and lending needs can reduce perceived risk and lower processing costs.For example,SHS project preparation facilities require a high level of standardization to assis

145、t businesses in managing a high volume of low-value credits,while businesses investing in mini-grid facilities need to manage large up-front costs,paid back over time by connected users.Scale up blended finance solutions and take the first-loss position in a blended capital structure.This will accel

146、erate the development of deal and transaction pipelines to help private sector actors scale portfolios and drive down prices and costs.Working with local financial institutions(commercial banks,national development banks),create local-currency financing facilities that can provide financing in small

147、er amounts.Local consumers and businesses often need to borrow in foreign currency for solar projects.Credit issued in local currency makes borrowing easier and reduces losses from fluctuating exchange rates.Build green finance capacity among regional and national development banks and other local f

148、inancial institutions.Many banks lack internal technical expertise for solar lending and need more capacity to shift concessional funding toward“green finance”and“climate finance”(see Solution example 4).Figure 2 summarizes the priority actions outlined in this solu-tion pathway and highlights how e

149、ach group of actors can help address the key barriers to scaling investment in off-grid and decentralized solar.Country example 1.Bangladeshs solar home systems program to develop off-grid solar Since 2003,Bangladesh has electrified more than 4 million rural households by stimulating investment in S

150、HS.The government funded a public-private partnership(Infrastructure Develop-ment Company Limited,or IDCOL)mandated to design and support the rollout of SHS by offering consumer incentives,including generous subsidies and collateral-free loans,and by standardizing procurement mechanisms.IDCOL procur

151、es services from a network of partners ranging from local SHS manufacturers and businesses to microcredit financiers who Solution example 3|Tongas off-grid solar cooperativesMany of Tongas remote islands require off-grid solar facilities to access energy.The country initiated its first major off-gri

152、d solar investment in 2019 with a 1.25 MWp mini-grid solar facility to deliver electricity to more than 700 residents on the island of Niuatoputapu.The facility,with nine individual solar plants,was funded by Asian Development Banks(ADB)Outer Island Renew-able Energy Project(OIREP)and sells electric

153、ity to the countrys sole utility company,Tonga Power Limited(TPL).TPL then resells the solar power to local residents through prepaid metering with a subsidized tariff,with the ADB OIREP team providing technical assistance.Solar electricity costs are further lowered because the facilities are operat

154、ed and maintained by local residents who have received vocational training and technical capacity-building from OIREP and TPL.Source:ADB 2022a.Solution example 4|Greening the Banks Initiative in the Philippines The Greening the Banks(GTB)initiative was launched in 2019 by Allotrope Partners to help

155、financial institutions,developers,regu-lators,and other market stakeholders in Southeast Asia actively participate in green finance.In the Philippines,GTB hosted a dialogue series with the Philippines Central Bank during 202022 that engaged more than 1,400 participants to build capacity among local

156、banks and foster collaboration with other entities.The GTB initiative also shares data,tools,and best practices to enhance risk analysis and increase knowledge of innovative green products and technologies,including solar technologies.Source:Allotrope Partners 2022.finance the delivery of affordable

157、 SHS to households.This model is being studied by other countries,including Uganda,Sudan,Ghana,Ethiopia,and Guinea(Willcox and Cooper 2018).Bangladeshs experience illustrates perils as well as successes.Planners failed to anticipate future grid expansion(Hellqvist and Heubaum 2022).The grid pushed i

158、nto areas targeted by off-grid solar suppliers,threatening to strand off-grid assets.In addition,insufficient regulatory oversight over SHS quality has driven a drop in system performance and consumer confidence.12|Figure 2|Solution pathway addresses barriers to scaling solar:Off-grid and decentrali

159、zed solarNotes:DFI=development finance institution;NDB=national development bank.Source:Authors.National governments,central banks,and national development banksEnabling policies,regulations,and public financingGovernment/utilities Set clear access and rural electrification targets,and grid expansio

160、n plans Government Develop tarif policies,pricing rules,solar incentives;remove import restrictionsGovernment Standardize procurement and contracting mechanisms Central banks Regulate and lead green financing practices for of-grid solarNDBs Reinforce solar policy with solar lending practices:allocat

161、e portion of loans for of-grid solar and provide solar investment incentives to of-grid businessesDevelopment finance institutions and commercial banksRisk managementDFIs Standardize risk underwriting and conces-sional credit lines to support solar lending by local banksDFIs-Create local currency fa

162、cilities;scale up blended finance for of-grid businessesCommercial banks Standardize consumer and business credit for of-grid solar;work with government to provide subsidized loans for solarCommercial banks and NDBs Aggregate and securitize small transactions(working with DFIs);support local currenc

163、y finance for businessesProject pipeline developmentDFIs Align project preparation facilities with solar targets by type of of-grid or mini-grid projectGovernment and DFIs Create incubators to promote innovative projects and lendingDFIs and NDBs Build solar and clean energy finance capacity in local

164、 bank staf and workforceNDBs Support project pipeline development;liaise with commercial banks and DFIsAccelerate and scale solar investment to 2030Available subsidies have also shrunk(Cabraal et al.2021),raising costs,eroding demand,and destabilizing the market for off-grid solar.Still,by 2020 the

165、program helped provide electricity to 20 million people and push the share of Bangla-deshs population with access to energy to 97 percent(Cabraal et al.2021).(For more details on Bangladeshs experience,see Appendix A.)Solution pathway for utility-scale and grid-connected solarOne major constraint to

166、 scaling up utility-scale and grid-connected solar is a lack of clarity surrounding government procurement plans for electricity supply.Another is uncer-tainty about plans for public investment in grid infrastructure and technologies to enhance integration of renewable energy into the grid.Such inve

167、stment is needed to enable the grid to connect to and absorb power generated by solar and other renewable energy facilities.Another challenge is a lack of financial solvency of state-owned utility companies or enterprises(SOEs).In many regions,generating power and maintaining grid infrastructure are

168、 state-owned activities,and electricity prices to consumers may be highly politicized.When governments cap electricity prices for grid-supplied power,SOEs(e.g.,distribu-tion companies)may be forced to sell power below cost and operate at a loss.Accumulated losses over time can result in utilities or

169、 other SOEs becoming financially insolvent(World Bank 2018a).Investment in generation and transmission thus lags behind growth in demand,a vicious cycle that results in interruptions and limited access to power due to constraints in power supply or outdated grid infrastructure.Over time,accu-mulated

170、 losses can undermine the ability of the utility or SOE to access capital needed to modernize and integrate new sources of generation,such as solar.Accelerating investment in solar is further complicated because institutions and vested industry interests,with a long history of grid-based fossil fuel

171、 or hydro-power generation,are often reluctant to adopt new technologies or models for electrification.The utility-scale and grid-connected solar solution pathway highlights priority actions for various actors to address these barriers and mobilize solar investment in this market segment.WORKING PAP

172、ER|November 2022|13Our Solar FutureNational governments Set transparent short-and long-term targets for solar capacity and power system buildout.This provides needed clarity and reduces risk for potential investors and financiers by guaranteeing a market for their power.Strengthen utilities financia

173、l position by eliminating subsidies gradually and ensuring that the costs of production and system upgrades are covered.This can help the utility to become profitable and raise its credit ratings,making it a more attractive commercial partner for other power producers.Streamline permitting and tende

174、ring processes to attract additional private sector investment in solar.This includes simplifying permitting through better alignment among regulators,utilities,and government ministries(see Solution example 5);clarifying commercial structures for solar investment;and creating transparent and compet

175、itive auctions or tender processes with predictability at the design,bidding,and operating phases.Work with other electricity generators to create standardized power purchase agreements(PPAs)and a stable framework for purchasing power from a range of solar power producers,such as utility-scale solar

176、 projects,industrial users,and households with excess capacity.With DFI support,provide capacity-building for national,regional,and local utilities,focusing on integrating utility-scale solar PV into national grids,leveraging BESS to manage solar variability,and integrating solar with other renewabl

177、es.Establish investment protections and policies:open the generation market to private investment to attract additional capital and incentivize foreign direct investment in utility-scale solar projects.Decrease counterparty risk by issuing sovereign guarantees for solar projects through nodal agenci

178、es.Develop“renewable energy(RE)zones”for solar:RE zones are areas with land features that are appropriate for cost-effective renewable energy development,available RE resources,and developer interest.Central banks and NDBs Reform policies and coordinate initiatives and actions to reward green financ

179、ial activities such as lending and investments in clean energy and penalize those that pollute.This may include green macroprudential policies,monetary policies,and public co-funding(Monasterolo et al.2022;DOrazio 2021).Provide expertise and market feedback to decision-makers to advance solar as par

180、t of the clean energy policy framework.Establish a pathway and rules for the issuance of green bonds by local actions(e.g.,see Colombia SBN and IFC 2018).Commercial banks Provide training to staff in assessing risks and underwriting large,complex projects.More experienced teams can better price risk

181、,which enables lower interest rates,makes loans more attractive to borrowers,and encourages market expansion.Partner with DFIs in loans for solar projects.DFIs Provide technical assistance to support countries in reforming policies and institutions(e.g.,the utility sector).This can include the creat

182、ion of“fit-for-solar”regulatory frameworks,such as simplified solar permitting procedures,standardized PPAs,and tax incentives for clean energy.Support development of regional markets for solar power(e.g.,power pools)to create economies of scale,manage load,and reduce the need for local storage to a

183、dvance the uptake and use of large-scale solar.Provide blended financing to leverage private finance and investment in large-scale solar facilities and related transmission system and battery storage investments(see Solution example 6).Solution example 5|Promoting transparent and competitive permitt

184、ing in South AfricaThe government of South Africa initiated the Renewable Independent Power Producer Programme to increase private sector investment in solar PV and other grid-connected renew-able sources to achieve its national target of adding 17.8 GW of renewable energy by 2030.The program is a c

185、ompetitive tender process that selects IPPs based on multistage bidding cover-ing the contractual and implementation phases.It has attracted project developers,sponsors,and equity shareholders domesti-cally and abroad,as well as banks,insurers,development finance institutions,and international utili

186、ties.Two and a half years after its launch,it had awarded 64 private sector projects for a total of$14 billion investment committed.Source:REIPPP 2022.14|Figure 3 summarizes the priority actions outlined in this solu-tion pathway and highlights how each group of actors can help address the key barri

187、ers to scaling investment in utility-scale and grid-connected solar.Country example 2.Tongas experience scaling up utility-scale solar Tongas experience illustrates how government actions and DFI support can attract significant private sector investment in large-scale solar projects and build projec

188、t pipelines even in small and island states.In 2008,Tongas government became the first in the Pacific Islands to establish a feed-in tariff(FiT)to attract private investment(REEEP 2022).In parallel,Tongas Energy Roadmap(201020)set a goal of supplying 70 percent of the countrys grid power from renewa

189、ble energy by 2030 and laid out clear power system procurement plans,defining the roles of the government,the utility,and the private sector(UN 2022).This clarity and Tongas long-term commitment to solar,which accounts for more than 80 percent of its current renew-able energy capacity(IRENA 2022a),a

190、ttracted private sector funding for large-scale projects.These include a 6 MW solar farm(the second-largest in the Pacific region)built by Suner-Solution example 6|Leveraging private finance to deploy Mozambiques first utility-scale solar plantIn 2017,a financing package of$55 millionfrom the Intern

191、ational Finance Corporation,Climate Investment Funds,and a syndicated loan,along with a$7 million Viability Gap Funding grant from the Private Infrastructure Development Groupenabled Mozambique to construct its first utility-scale solar photovoltaic power plant.Support from development finance insti

192、tutions helped mitigate the risks related to Mozambiques deteriorating credit rating and strict restrictions on using U.S.dollars,arising from its debt crisis,and enabled the project to attract private sector investment.The 40 megawatt solar plant,located in a Special Economic Zone in Mozambique,wen

193、t online in 2018 and delivers 79 gigawatts of electricity per year to rural areas.The project was jointly devel-oped by Scatec Solar,a Norwegian independent power producer;Norfund;and Mozambiques utility company,Electricidade de Moambique(EdM),with a 25-year power purchase agreement to sell the gene

194、rated electricity to EdM.Sources:IFC 2017;Norfund 2020.Figure 3|Solution pathway addresses barriers to scaling solar:Utility-scale and grid-connected solarNotes:DFI=development finance institution;NDB=national development bank;PPA=power purchase agreement;RE=renewable energy.Source:Authors.National

195、governments,central banks,and national development banksEnabling policies,regulations,and public financingGovernment Set transparent short-and long-term targets for solar Government Strengthen financial performance of utilities and raise credit ratingsGovernment Streamline permitting,tendering,stand

196、ardized PPAs,and pricing Government Establish RE zones for solar power generation and storage,and regional power poolsCentral banks Regulate and lead green financing practices,including green bondsNDBs Champion and reinforce solar policy with solar lending practices;co-finance solar projectsDFIs Sup

197、port governments in creating fit-for-so-lar regulatory frameworks and development of regional power poolsDevelopment finance institutions and commercial banksRisk managementDFIs Standardize transaction process for utility-scale dealsDFIs Create local currency facilities;establish and scale up flexib

198、le blended finance facilities Government Policies for investment protection;work with DFIs to build utility-scale solar capacityCommercial banks and NDBs Partner with DFIs in lending;train staf in assessing and underwriting projectsProject pipeline developmentDFIs and NDBs Build capacity across bank

199、 staf on solar and clean energy financeAccelerate and scale solar investment to 2030WORKING PAPER|November 2022|15Our Solar Futuregise,a private company with an IFC equity investment,that will sell electricity to the utility for 25 years.The World Bank and ADB provided pivotal financing and technica

200、l assistance to develop a highly competitive tender process and standard-ized PPAs(ADB 2019).As a result of these combined efforts,13 percent of Tongas grid power is now supplied by renewable energy(IRENA 2022a).(For more details on Tongas experi-ence,see Appendix B.)Country example 3.Argentinas auc

201、tion scheme to scale up utility-scale solar Argentina has set an ambitious goal of 20 percent electricity generation from renewable energy by 2025(GoA 2015).Policy reforms enacted in 201516,including the RenovAr renew-able auction scheme,have enabled the country to increase its installed solar capac

202、ity more than 100-foldfrom 8 MW to nearly 1.1 GWbetween 2018 and 2022(IRENA 2022a;Kind 2022).The competitive auctions under RenovAr offer 20-year PPAs to sell electricity to Argentinas national utility company,along with guarantee mechanisms provided by the government-established Fund for the Develo

203、pment of Renewable Energy(FODER)to mitigate off-taker risk as well as financial and political risk.Argentina received a massive response to the auc-tions(Saurabh 2017);the bids offered on installed capacity were more than six times the requested amount in Round 1(Braud 2018)and eight times the reque

204、sted amount in Round 2a reflection of the countrys effective regulatory framework and robust guarantee mechanisms(Kind 2022).From 2015 to 2022 the renewable energy share in Argentinas total electricity gen-eration increased from less than 2 percent to 16 percent(Kind 2022).However,momentum for addit

205、ional solar deployment has stalled somewhat since 2018 as the result of a decrease in long-term renewable investment.(For more details on Argentinas experience,see Appendix C.)Solution pathway for energy storage and grid flexibility infrastructureExpanding and improving electricity grid T&D and stor

206、age sys-tems to adequately serve existing and unserved customersand build flexibility for integrating future increases in solar genera-tionis critical for scaling solar.The use of well-established BESS technologies is expanding worldwide,but a 10-fold increase in the pace of battery storage addition

207、s is needed(BNEF 2021c)to connect solar energy supply to demand and manage loads.Challenges to rapidly scaling investment in electricity T&D and battery storage include limited public funds available to apply to large-scale new initiatives,a history of government ownership and operation structures t

208、hat need to be adapted for new investment from the private sector,and a need for capacity-building in management of new technolo-gies and systems.The following solution pathway for energy storage and grid flexibility infrastructure highlights priority actions for various actors to address these barr

209、iers and mobilize solar investment in this market segment.Governments Set yearly and long-term electricity grid expansion plans with clear transmission,distribution,and battery storage objectives to provide clarity for potential investors.Allocate budget for grid investment(public funding).Develop“r

210、enewable energy(RE)zones”for solar and storage resources.Adopt policies to manage the grid integration of variable solar PV.Increase regional power pool cooperation to enable economies of scale in grid management,energy storage,and energy trading.Governments can raise funding through sovereign Green

211、 Bonds to invest in solar projects at scale across geographies and over long time frames.DFIs Support training programs to build government and utility capacity in energy planning.Training should include topics related to solar integration into grids and T&D,including collecting and analyzing data t

212、o identify supply shortages;optimizing management of variable electricity production and grid integration;systems modeling to plan for BESS and other energy storage solutions;and systems modeling to show the value of RE and storage and calculate the amount of storage required.Develop blended finance

213、 solutions for grid enhancements in collaboration with national financial institutions.Guarantees,concessional finance,and equity positions will help attract first-time private investment into the sector.As scale and track records grow,the need for blended finance will abate.Support regional efforts

214、 to create and strengthen regional power pools that enable countries to manage differences in solar power generation and optimize reliable supply;efforts can be modeled on successful initiatives to share excess hydroelectric generation(e.g.,Southern African Power Pool).16|Directly support countries

215、in upgrading T&D infrastructure and power management systems to enable future solar energy integration(see Solution example 7).Figure 4 summarizes the priority actions outlined in this solu-tion pathway and highlights how each group of actors can help address the key barriers to scaling investment i

216、n energy storage and grid flexibility infrastructure.Country example 4.Zambias experience attracting investment in solar generation and T&D Striving for universal energy access,Zambia has sought private participation in every segment of the electricity market,includ-ing solar generation,T&D infrastr

217、ucture,and power trading with other countries in the region.Adding solar capacity may be critical because extended droughts have begun to reduce the output of Zambias hydro projects,which account for more than 80 percent of the countrys electricity supply.This has led to power shortages and social a

218、nd economic disruptions.In 2015,with support from the U.S.Agency for International Development(USAID),Zambia implemented a renewable Solution example 7|Desert to Power Initiative The Desert to Power Initiative,launched by the African Develop-ment Bank(AfDB)in 2018,aims to install 10 GW of solar powe

219、r capacity with energy storage across 11 countries in North Africa.The program empowers North African countries to expand grid-connected solar power generation capacity by supporting independent power producers in the solar sector and hybridizing existing thermal power plants,upgrading existing tran

220、smission and distribution(T&D)infrastructure and power management systems,and constructing new T&D networks.Among the 85 identified priority projects,more than 25 percent are focused on T&D.The program is expected to deliver technical conditions for a regional solar market with cross-border transmis

221、sion of clean energy for up to 3 gigawatts.Source:AfDB 2022.Figure 4|Solution pathway addresses barriers to scaling solar:Energy storage and grid flexibility infrastructureNotes:DFI=development finance institution;NDB=national development bank;PV=photovoltaic;RE=renewable energy;T&D=transmission and

222、 distribution.Source:Authors.National governments,central banks,and national development banksEnabling policies,regulations,and public financingGovernment Set yearly and long-term grid expansion plans with clear T&D and storage objectivesGovernment Adopt policies to manage grid integration of solar

223、PVGovernment Establish RE zones for solar power generation and storageGovernment and DFIs Develop and support regional power pools to expand power manage-ment and tradeDevelopment finance institutions and commercial banksRisk managementDFIs Develop and deploy blended finance solutions for grid enhan

224、cement DFIs Directly support(co-finance)upgrading of T&D infrastructure and power management systemsProject pipeline developmentDFIs Build capacity across government and utility staf on energy system management and planningAccelerate and scale solar investment to 2030WORKING PAPER|November 2022|17Ou

225、r Solar Futureenergy feed-in tariff(REFiT)(UN 2021b).In 2017,following the success of the competitive auction under the IFC and World Bank Group(WBG)Scaling Solar program,the Government of Zambia revised its national REFiT strategy to utilize the Global Energy Transfer Feed-in Tariff(GET FiT)solar t

226、ender process,designed initially for East African countries to produce and support IPP projects with German government support.In 2018,the GET FiT Zambia program accelerated efforts to diversify the countrys power mix and make market conditions more attractive to investors.GET FiT Zambia Solar launc

227、hed a tender for 100 MW of solar projects,and in 2019 it awarded 120 MW of solar PV across six projects in 2019,the largest sin-gle solar PV tender implemented in sub-Saharan Africa(outside of South Africa)to date(UN 2021b).As of 2022 these GET FiTsupported projects have not yet been commissioned,la

228、rgely due to the financial instability of Zambias utility,the Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation(ZESCO)(US DoC 2022).(For more details on Zambias experience,see Appendix D.)Solution pathway for advanced solar and storage technologiesUnique challenges constrain the scale-up of investment in advanc

229、ed solar technologies(such as floating solar,agri-voltaics,and green hydrogen)and emerging energy storage technologies(such as advanced chemistry batteries including flow batter-ies,compressed air,and solar thermal energy storage).The challenges include uncertainty about cost and performance of emer

230、ging technologies;complex or inconsistent permit-ting and regulation;the lack of expertise in new technologies among government and other local market actors;and financial and other risks accompanying new technology development and deployment.The advanced solar and storage technologies solution path

231、way highlights priority actions for various actors to address these barriers and mobilize solar investment in this market segment.Governments Create and invest in ambitious research and development(R&D)programs and business incubators,including pilot demonstration programs,with private sector partne

232、rs,targeting advanced solar technologies.Invest in national market development programs,including pilot and demonstration projects,best suited to address local needs and opportunities for advanced technologies(see Solution example 8).Streamline permitting processes for advanced solar projects to red

233、uce delays,complete demonstrations,and help build project pipelines.Consider packages of specific financial incentives to position the country as a first mover in advanced solar technologies.Develop standards or certification programs to drive the development of markets for new solar technologies or

234、 derived products(see Solution example 9).DFIs Provide capacity-building and technical assistance to governments to plan,develop,and implement early investment and demonstration programs and to manage new supply-demand dynamics for advanced solar technologies.Increase country-level financing for bus

235、iness incubators and pilot projects to develop and adapt advanced technologies to country needs and speed the path to larger-scale deployment(partnering with government and/or NDBs).Provide blended finance support such as insurance and partial risk guarantees to lower new-technology project risks an

236、d provide equity capital and grants for early-stage investment.Concessional debt capital is particularly helpful to support advanced technology projects that otherwise struggle to access bank loans despite positive performance records.Solution example 8|Investment in floating solar in Thailand to ad

237、dress scarcity and cost of landIn October 2021,the Government of Thailand began operating the“worlds largest floating hydro-solar farm,”the Sirindhorn Dam farm in the northeastern province of Ubon Ratchathani.With more than 144,000 solar cells and covering 720,000 square meters of water surface,the

238、farm converts sunlight to electricity during the day and generates hydropower at night.It has a capacity of 45 megawatts(MW).These types of integrated projects are key to meeting Thailands target of generating 30 percent of its energy from renewables by 2037 and helps solve one of the countrys main

239、constraints to solar power development:the scarcity and cost of land.The farm is managed by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand,and most of the generated electricity goes to the provincial electricity authority,which distributes power to nearby homes and businesses.The$35 million projec

240、t,which took nearly two years to buildin part due to pandemic-related delaysis the first of 15 such farms Thailand plans to build by 2037,with a planned total power generation capacity of 2,725 MW.Sources:SEI 2021;Sangwongwanich 2022.18|Figure 5 summarizes the priority actions outlined in this solu-

241、tion pathway and highlights how each group of actors can help address the key barriers to scaling investment in advanced solar and storage technologies.Country example 5.Egypts path to green hydrogen through solar market developmentEgypt is currently building the worlds largest green hydrogen projec

242、t pipelines(Energy&Utilities 2022).Because Egypt has succeeded in implementing utility-scale solar and other large-scale renewable projects,it has the abundant renewable energy needed to produce green hydrogen(Enterprise 2022).The Government of Egypt has supported utility-scale solar and green hydro

243、gen development by aligning policies to encour-age investment and funding pilot and demonstration projects.Beginning in 2014,it reduced fossil fuel subsidies,liberalized the power sector to allow prices to reflect costs,and permitted bilateral direct transactions between IPPs and consumers and marke

244、t competition in power generation and T&D(Breisinger et al.2019).Combined with technical and policy support from the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund(IMF),these policies helped Egypt attract investment from the Solution example 9|The European Unions CertifHy programThe CertifHy p

245、rogram initiated by the European Union helps guarantee that hydrogen has been produced using renewable or low-carbon energy sources,increasing transparency for consum-ers and lowering the market risk of investing in green hydrogen.Green hydrogen is a potential clean energy source for“hard to decarbo

246、nize”sectors of industry and transportation.Under the certification scheme,an electronic CertifHy document pro-vides proof that a given quantity of hydrogen is produced with a specific quality and method of production.Extension of this type of certification program could open global trade in decarbo

247、n-ized industrial goods;for example,by supplying green primary iron produced from green hydrogen in developing countries with plentiful solar resources.Sources:CertifHy 2022;Trollip et al.2022.Figure 5|Solution pathway addresses barriers to scaling solar:Advanced solar and storage technologiesNotes:

248、DFI=development finance institution;NDB=national development bank;R&D=research and development.Source:Authors.National governments,central banks,and national development banksEnabling policies,regulations,and public financingGovernment Streamline permitting for advanced solar projects;ofer financial

249、 incentivesGovernment Develop standards or certification to drive new technology marketsDevelopment finance institutions and commercial banksRisk managementGovernment Ofer financial incentives for investing in advanced solar technologiesDFIs Provide blended finance support including concessional deb

250、t capital,insurance,and partial risk guarantees Project pipeline developmentGovernment Invest in R&D,pilot and demonstra-tion projects,and business incubatorsDFIs Build capacity across government;provide technical assistance for early investment and demonstration programsDFIs Invest in business incu

251、bators and pilots to promote innovative lending(partnering with government/NDBs)Accelerate and scale solar investment to 2030WORKING PAPER|November 2022|19Our Solar Futureprivate sector for utility-scale solar facilities;Egypts installed solar capacity rose from 15 MW in 2014 to 1.66 GW in 2021(IREN

252、A 2022a).To encourage private sector participation in its ambitious green hydrogen agenda,the Government of Egypt also adopted simplified permitting for new projects,which has helped attract billions of dollars in private investment for the multiple plants under construction(Alhosainy 2022).(For mor

253、e details on Egypts experience,see Appendix E.)RECOMMENDATIONS FOR DELIVERING INVESTMENT AT SCALE Realizing solars potential will require not just country-level actions to set targets and implement policy but also coordinated and ambitious action among international institutions.The Clean Energy Min

254、isterial,G20 Energy Ministerial meetings,Sustainable Energy for All(SEforAll),UN agencies,IRENA,ISA,and other global and multilateral organizations need to work together in new ways to accelerate the transition to solar energy to meet the Paris climate goals,Sustainable Develop-ment Goals,and net ze

255、ro emission targets.An extensive consultation process with global financial and solar development experts identified seven new collaborative efforts that could deliver the attention and resources needed to scale solar investments:Collaborate to set and track specific and time-bound solar targets.Tar

256、gets should include time-bound and geographically specific milestones to ensure rapid action.In addition,a collec-tive effort is needed to monitor commitments,track progress,and measure the impacts of solar investment to ensure effective,equitable deployment of solar solutions.Global entities should

257、 collaborate to leverage and link specific solar targets to ongoing commitment processes(e.g.,nationally determined contributions,UN Energy Compacts,the Science Based Targets initiative,RE100);and incorporate targets and planning for grid and infrastructure enhancement and battery energy storage sys

258、tems into solar targets.Replicate and scale regional or global entities focused on risk mitigation.Specialized facilities can diversify risk across coun-tries and across risk types and significantly speed up transaction times.Numerous entities could be replicated and/or scaled to address various typ

259、es of risk.For political risk:Political risk insurance programs by the African Trade Insurance Agency(ATI),the World Bank Groups Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency(MIGA),and bilateral agencies such as HERMES of Germany.For off-taker or liquidity risk:ATIs Regional Liquidity Support Facility,wh

260、ich provides short-term liquidity support by backing bank credit to approved IPPs.For currency risk:TCX Fund,which hedges currency risk by offering financial instruments that enable investors to provide their borrowers with financing in their own currency;and Climate Finance Labs ACT Fund,which refi

261、nances Africa-based projects in local currency.For private investment risk:ISAs planned Blended Finance Facility in Africa,which aims to mitigate risk and facilitate financing for private sectorled projects by combining concessional financing with commercial funding.1Activities could be coordinated

262、through one or a combination of existing multilateral entities(e.g.,the World Bank and regional development banks,the Global Environment Facility,the Climate Investment Funds Clean Technology Fund or Strategic Climate Fund,Green Climate Fund).Risk-mitigation needs for solar investment would be asses

263、sed at a regional or country level and existing institutions best suited for replication and scaling would be identified.Specific activities could include initiatives to develop and make widely available a database of risk-mitigation solutions and guidelines on their use,including innovative solutio

264、ns built on cross-regional learning(e.g.,South-South);and mobilize public capital to support implementation of the solutions,including concessional or blended finance from philanthropic organizations,bilateral donors,and global climate funds.Coordinate international efforts to promote good practices

265、 in energy sector regulation as they affect solar investment and deployment.Information about good practices in solar sector policies and regulations is dispersed and segregated.Creating and widely promoting a global repository of data and support 20|resources is critical to enable learning and repl

266、ication across countries in different stages of solar developmentand to help create consistent policy and regulatory frameworks despite political fluctuations.This effort can build on the templates developed by the IFC/World Bank Group Scaling Solar program and include the following elements:Develop

267、ing and promoting principles for national regulatory regimes that are optimal for scaling up solar energy to guide governments and DFIs.Tailoring these principles to various market scales,private sector roles,and country prioritiessuch as utility solar through a feed-in tariff structure,large-scale

268、procurement through auctions,mini-grid development,and solar thermal for direct heat utilization.Providing planning elements to clarify the role of solar in countries energy mix,including planning for least-cost power,off-grid development,grid enhancement,spatial and temporal variability of supply a

269、nd demand,and balancing solar with other generation sources.Coordinating with existing global vehicles(e.g.,UN energy compacts and energy transition roadmaps developed by the Energy Transition Commission)to promote and incentivize the use of the principlessuch as qualification for solar-targeted DFI

270、 support.Establish an international platform to promote standard-ization in solar finance and support common systems for tracking progress,performance,and impact.Creating stan-dardization among financing entities and processes will be essential to accelerating solar investment.It would include the f

271、ollowing steps:Identify and engage international financial entities to participate in the development and endorsement of the standardized processes and products(e.g.,PPAs).Develop globally or regionally applicable,standardized contract structures and negotiation processes to mitigate risk and avoid

272、project pipeline delays.With leadership from IRENA,build on existing renewable energy tracking platforms(e.g.,IRENA,SEforAll,REN21)to monitor and track progress of solar investment and deployment and lessons learned.Review and improve standardized indicators to measure project-level financial and en

273、ergy performance,socioeconomic benefits,and other impacts from solar deployment.Coordinate international funding and resource support from DFIs and investors to gather and analyze data to measure outcomes and impacts.Track commitments and actions by governments,DFIs,investors,and partnerships to hol

274、d stakeholders accountable,promote consensus-building,and strengthen collaboration between the public and private sectors to accelerate solar investment and deployment globally.Demonstrate credible solar project pipelines.Spur a concerted effort among regional development banks or other DFIs to coor

275、dinate regional platforms dedicated to accelerating solar project deal transactions.The lead entity identified for each region would define its detailed focus(e.g.,size and types of projects,specific actors)based on the needs,priorities,regula-tory frameworks,and country readiness levels in the regi

276、on.The platforms would share information and experience to encourage replication of successful activities.Regional platforms to grow solar project pipelines could pilot innovative financing platforms led by multilateral development banks,including by convening project developers with clients and fin

277、anciers and providing financing programs for specific types of solar projects on a regional level through loans to national development banks;replicate models for online deal development,such as the CPIs FAST-Infra platform(Dsglise et al.2021)for infrastructure projects;explore strategies to mobiliz

278、e capital for solar-specific private financial intermediaries that help scale private sector companies involved in off-grid and decentralized solar solutions;and develop and promote guidance for project promoters on key elements of feasibility studies to demonstrate the technical and financial viabi

279、lity of proposed solar projects.Engage rating agencies to review and/or develop innova-tive rating tools for emerging market blended finance funds.Rating agencies do not traditionally rate emerging-market blended-finance funds,and institutional investors are hesitant to invest in funds that do not h

280、ave credit ratings.To unlock and scale institutional capital,collaborate with rating agen-cies to develop streamlined and potentially subsidized rating methodologies for these funds.Engage with the Net Zero Asset Owners Alliance and other stakeholders to build and demon-strate demand for the ratings

281、.Support global scale-up of vendor finance.Vendor financing is a useful mechanism for large manufacturers to support the expansion of a key market segment when banks are reluctant to provide working capital to customers.It also provides an WORKING PAPER|November 2022|21Our Solar Futureimportant pote

282、ntial vehicle for addressing future supply-side equipment constraints,given the extremely rapid global scaling of solar.Vendor finance in the solar industry is still underused.Global manufacturers of solar panels and batteries could be encouraged to frontload investment in the rapid expansion of the

283、ir market that will result from the global trend to decarbonize electricity and accelerate renewable energy deployment.Vendor finance involves manufacturers using their own funding to assist the expansion of their market;actions can include supporting the supply chain with inventory finance,partneri

284、ng with banks to support end-user credits through loss pooling,and setting up in-house consumer finance capabilities.Vendor finance may also allow pooled assets to be securitized,thus bringing new capital into solar projects.Global efforts to expand vendor finance could be coordinated through region

285、al leads(e.g.,regional development banks,the U.S.Export-Import Bank),in partnership with governments and their national development banks,as well as private banks and investment groups that focus on supply chain investment.Vendors would be required to meet a minimum requirement of technical and inst

286、allation quality.Vendor finance actions could include the following:Regional development banks and national governments could engage with solar and battery manufacturers to ensure understanding of vendor finance advantages based on planning for production expansion,while global and regional banks of

287、fer loss pooling and other market support.Wholesalers and industry organizations could identify bottlenecks in inventory and working capital finance and define key points of support and specific interventions,including foreign exchange,terms,and loans.Commercial banks could transfer their expertise

288、from large-scale vendor finance programs in other sectors into the solar sector.CONCLUSIONScaling solar investment to meet global goals requires national governments and central banks to aggressively address policy and regulatory barriers to solar investment,to help build momentum in project pipelin

289、es and manage political,financial,and other investment risks.It also requires that DFIs and com-mercial banks implement dedicated programs and platforms to help move solar investment and deployment to scale.The solution pathways outlined in this roadmap highlight priority actions by market segment,a

290、nd the solution cases and country examples illustrate implementation experiences and lessons.Finally,a new level of multilateral collaboration is needed to tackle barriers to scaling solar that cannot be effectively addressed on a country-by-country basis.The“Recommenda-tions”section of this roadmap

291、 calls for new,more ambitious forms of international collaboration to accelerate the pace and scale of solar deployment.Advancing solar energys critical role in climate mitigation,energy access,and the global clean energy transition must be a priority for all governments and intergov-ernmental proce

292、sses.22|APPENDIX A.CASE STUDY:BANGLADESHS SOLAR HOME SYSTEMS PROGRAM TO DEVELOP OFF-GRID SOLAR Bangladesh is one of the worlds most densely populated countries(CIA World Factbook 2020),with more than 166 million people in a land area smaller than that of Greece(10.6 million inhabitants)in 2021(World

293、 Bank 2022a).Its economy is growing rapidly,and so is its demand for energy.Between 2008 and 2018,energy generation more than doubled;the number of electricity consumers jumped 178 percent,and the energy access rate nearly doubled,from 47 to 90 percent(Moazzem and Ali 2019).Growth in the countrys gr

294、oss domestic product and power supply recently outpaced growth in population,and electricity access has continued to improve.However,to sustain its current economic growth rate of over 7 percent per year,Bangladesh needs around 34 gigawatts of power by 2030(Himalayan Times 2018)nearly 50 percent mor

295、e than its capacity of 23.8 gigawatts in 2021(IRENA 2022a).As of 2020,98 percent of Bangladeshs power came from fossil fuels,with natural gas supplying 60 percent of the countrys electricity(IRENA 2022a).As its gas reserves have been depleted,the government has shifted to importing liquid oil fuels

296、and coal(GoB 2013),worsening pollution and straining the countrys finances(Nicholas and Ahmed 2020).The Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago has ranked Bangladesh as the country with the worlds worst air pollution every year since 2018(Air Quality Life Index 2022;Hasnat 2022).Banglad

297、esh has abundant renewable energy resources,including solar,wind,biomass,hydro,biogas,marine energy,and geothermal(Hossain and Rahman 2021).Solar energy represents a particularly important resource,since Bangladesh has more than 300 sunny days per year,with high levels of solar radiation(Lipu et al.

298、2013).Since 2008 the Government of Bangladesh has sought to diversify its energy sources.It began by adopting a Renewable Energy Policy that encourages and facilitates both public and private sector investment in renewable energy(GoB 2008).The policy exempts investors from corporate income tax for f

299、ive years or more depending on a projects impact.It also enables utilities and consumers to purchase up to 5 megawatts of electricity generated from renewable energy projects(GoB 2008).Bangladesh has also supported off-grid solar power for parts of the country that are hard for the grid to reach.To

300、achieve Bangladeshs target,under Sustainable Development Goal 7,of reaching universal energy access by 2030,approximately 10 percent of the countrys remote and rural areas will have to depend on off-grid renewable energy(Hossain 2015).Off-grid solar home systems(SHS)were introduced in Bangladesh in

301、the 1990s by local organizations such as Grameen Shakti,the solar subsidiary of Grameen Bank.Financing came from the International Finance Corporation(IFC)in 1995 via the IFC/Global Environment Facility(GEF)Small and Medium Enterprise program(IFC 2007),and from the World Bank in 2008.In 2005,the gov

302、ernment created the Infrastructure Development Company Limited(IDCOL),a state-owned,nonbank financial institution tasked with financing renewable energy infrastructure in Bangladesh(Matin et al.2015).By 2018,more than 4.1 million SHS devices had been installed in Bangladesh,offering 20 million peopl

303、e access to electricity.By 2020,97 percent of Bangladeshs population had access to electricity(Cabraal et al.2021).Since 2013,with funding from the World Bank,GEF,and other development finance institutions,IDCOL has disbursed$504 million in credit and$97 million in grants to participating partner or

304、ganizations(IDCOL 2021),such as Grameen Shakti.These organizations have been instrumental in installing SHS in homes across Bangladesh.IDCOL provides the organizations with financing through low-interest loans and credits,and they,in turn,offer microfinance loans and direct subsidies to end users.En

305、d-use customers have various payment options and can access collateral-free loans to make payments(Ashden Winner 2022).This financing model has made investing in SHS affordable.The program demonstrates how a public-private partnership for solar energy development can leverage financing vehicles such

306、 as subsidies,low-interest loans,and microfinance models.Several other enabling conditions have contributed to success in Bangladesh:The governments long-term commitment,engagement,and patience,as well as its clear targets and time lines for energy access and solar deployment,its consistent tariff a

307、nd tax policies,and its solar incentives to clarify pricing.Continued financial commitment and support from multilateral development banks.An innovative financing model that enabled partner microfinance institutions to provide affordable financing to people who would not qualify for ordinary loans o

308、r credit from commercial banks.Although the Bangladesh SHS program lifted millions of people out of energy poverty,its performance has slumped since 2015(Hellqvist and Heubaum 2022).SHS sales peaked in 2013 at 816,000 SHS WORKING PAPER|November 2022|23Our Solar Futureinstallations,but they had plumm

309、eted to 3,500 by 2018(Cabraal et al.2021).Customers defected,in part,because grid expansionwhich was not coordinated in advance with SHS businesses,IDCOL,and other market actorsreduced demand for off-grid systems.Customers newly hooked up to the grid defaulted on their loan payments,depriving IDCOL

310、and its partner organizations of expected revenue(Hellqvist and Heubaum 2022).In addition,competition arose from other government programs that provided subsidized and free solar systems,undermining the commercial model of purchasing for credit.Instead of borrowing,customers could get free SHS provi

311、ded by companies under the governments social safety net programs,with the costs covered by the government(Hossain 2018).Third,reductions in the available subsidies reduced customer interest in the SHS program.IDCOL and its partners have not been able to continue to grow the SHS customer base in the

312、 face of shifting government policies and eroding demand.While Bangladeshs experience has shown that microcredit financing can be successfully used to scale up SHS,recent setbacks point to the ongoing need to match policy and financing schemes with market developments.Grid expansion planning needs t

313、o be carried out with time frames sufficiently long for markets to adapt.Exit strategies are needed for public subsidies,and planners must balance support for the poorest with changing preferences and growth in consumer demand.To continue enabling affordable electricity access throughout Bangladesh,

314、the SHS program would need to be recalibrated based on grid expansion planning and a larger and more active commercial solar sector.APPENDIX B.CASE STUDY:TONGAS EXPERIENCE SCALING UP UTILITY-SCALE SOLARTonga consists of 171 islands,in five main island groups in the southern Pacific Ocean.According t

315、o the 2016 World Risk Index,Tonga is the second-most climate-vulnerable country in the world(GCF 2022).Tonga does not produce any fossil fuelbased energy and historically has relied heavily on imported petroleum products.With diesel meeting around 87 percent of the countrys grid-connected electricit

316、y demand,Tongas economy is extremely vulnerable to the volatility of oil prices.In 2022,98 percent of Tongans have access to electricity(GoT 2022).To improve national energy security and ensure energy access,the Government of Tonga made a strategic effort to decarbonize the energy sector by promotin

317、g renewable energy and energy efficiency.In 2008 it passed the Renewable Energy Act,and two years later it implemented the Tonga Energy Roadmap 20102020(TERM).In 2021 the Tonga roadmap was updated as TERM-PLUS.The countrys total installed renewable energy(wind and solar)power generation capacity inc

318、reased from 0.1 gigawatts(GW)in 2011 to 7.8 GW in 2021;of this,80 percent came from solar(IRENA 2022a).In 2020,solar generated 7.1 gigawatt-hours(GWh)of electricity(IRENA 2022b),accounting for 10 percent of the countrys total electricity generation,and utility-scaled solar contributed to 95 percent

319、of the total solar energy generation(IRENA 2022a).By 2021,solar generation in Tonga had reached about 7.6 GWh.Tonga was the first Pacific Island country to implement a policy to promote renewable energy(REEEP 2022).Its 2008 law promotes enhanced research and development,enables the“licensing of pers

320、ons involved in the design,research,installation and management of renewable energy projects and streamlining of permitting,”and establishes feed-in tariffs(Climate Laws 2008).Revisions to the law in 2010 provided a mechanism for private sector entities to invest in independent power producers(IPPs)

321、and engage with the state-owned Tonga Power Limited(TPL)under a power purchase agreement(PPA)(GoT 2022).The TERM aimed to decarbonize and reform the countrys energy sector.It outlined a renewable energy pathway for 201020 and identified solar as the most promising renewable alternative,despite chall

322、enges with grid integration(GoT 2010;UN 2022).The Arup Group,which helped prepare the TERM,estimated that Tonga could supply 58 percent of its energy with renewables by 2020 and 91 percent by 2030,while improving the grids cost efficiency,stability,and reliability(Arup 2022).As part of this ambitiou

323、s renewable energy plan,Arup foresaw a role for hybrid solar,wind,andbattery energy storage solutions as part ofa microgrid on Tongatapu,Tongas main island and home to around 74 percent of the population(Tonga Census 2021),to balance out the grid and provide greater grid resilience to extreme weathe

324、r and events(Create Digital 2018).Tonga fell short of achieving the goals in the TERM,largely due to disruptions related to the COVID-19 pandemic(PCREEE 2021).In 2021,Tongas updated roadmap(TERM-PLUS)set a new ambitious goal to raise the renewable energy share in the electricity mix to 70 percent by

325、 2025 and 100 percent by 2035(GoT 2022;PCREEE 2021).The countrys implementation of TERM-PLUS has had to contend with the Hunga TongaHunga Haapai volcanic eruption and tsunami on January 15,2022.Tongas Energy Department,part of the Ministry of Meteorology,Energy,Information,Disaster Management,Enviro

326、nment,Climate Change,and Communication,is responsible for the countrys energy planning and development.Tongas Electricity Commission regulates the countrys power sector by setting tariffs for grid-connected electricity.TPL,under the oversight of the Ministry of Public Enterprises and the government

327、cabinet,is the only company in Tonga that provides grid-connected electricity servicesincluding generation,transmission and distribution,electricity retailing,and operation and maintenance.This state-owned enterprise serves 24|Tongas four main island groupsall except the outlying Niuas.In 2020,TPL g

328、enerated a total of 73.2 GWh,with nearly 13 percent coming from renewable energy,38 percent more than in the previous year(TPL 2020).The TERM clearly defined roles for the government,TPL,and the private sector in power and renewable energy development(UN 2022).Even though TPL is a state-owned enterp

329、rise and the Government of Tonga remains the arbiter in the market,the private sector has led renewable energy generation projects between 2018 and 2022 for construction and operation,following a competitive and transparent bidding and procurement process.Public funding,often in the form of grants,s

330、ubsidizes the cost of the winning proposals for a given renewable energy IPP tender(UN 2022).Between 2011 and 2021,utility-scale solar capacity in Tonga increased dramatically,from 0 to 6 megawatts(MW),with six solar projects fully completed,due to the successful financing and implementation of larg

331、e-scale solar projects with active participation from the private sector(IRENA 2022a;Fonua 2021).Tongas first large-scale solar project,the 1 MW Maama Mai solar facility on the island of Tongatapu,was commissioned in 2012 and funded by the New Zealand Aid Programme with a total of NZ$7.9 million(aro

332、und US$4.4 million)(GoT 2022;TPL 2022).Since 2012,this solar farm has delivered an average of 1.88 GWh of electricity every year(TPL 2022).Tongas second solar farm,Laa Lahi(“big sun”)solar field,was initiated in 2012 on Vavau Island.This 512 kilowatt(kW)solar photovoltaic(PV)facility was publicly fu

333、nded by the UAE-Pacific Partnership Fund to meet 17 percent of Tongas annual electricity demand at that time(PRDR 2022).The project,delivered in 2013 for operation by Masdar,a UAE renewable energy company,reduced the electricity tariff across Tonga by 1 percent,supplying up to 67 percent of grid demand during peak hours(IRENA 2015a).In 2017,Tonga built its then-largest solar PV plant,the 2 MW Mata