1、Copyright 2022 APEC SecretariatEV Battery Trends and Developments Charles UthusUnited States American Automotive Policy CouncilAgenda Item 4 Panel Discussion:EV Battery Trends and Developments 13 September 2022Copyright 2022 APEC SecretariatGlobal EV Market Global new EV sales in 2021 topped 6.6 mil

2、lion.This was twice the number sold in 2020.As a result,nearly 10%of global new car sales were electric in 2021.The total cumulative number of EVs on todays roads across the globe reached 16.5 million(triple the amount in 2018).The success of EVs is being driven by multiple factors:Sustained policy

3、support,with public spending on subsidies and incentives for EVs nearly doubling in 2021 to nearly$30 billion USD.A growing number of economies have committed to phase-out internal combustion engines and/or have set more ambitious vehicle electrification targets for the coming decades.Carmakers have

4、 invested billions to continue to electrify their fleets,with targets that are even more ambitious than most governments.5 times more new EV models were available in 2021 than in 2015.The number of EV models available on the market today is around 450.This increase in vehicle options has led to an i

5、ncreased consumer interests.3.26.60.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.020202021Global BEV/PHEV SalesANNUAL2020-2021 in millions of vehicles 4.5 7.8 3.2 5.5 1.7 2.0 0.8 1.1 -2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.020202021Global BEV/PHEV Sales CUMULATIVE2020-2021 in millions of VehiclesOtherU.S.EuropeChina10.216.

6、5Copyright 2022 APEC SecretariatEV Battery Forecasts(Global)Comparison of different forecasts of EV battery demand/capacity that use different assumptions,(done in July 2021)shows a consistent and unanimous expectation of continued growth through 2030.However,there is a wide range of forecasts for p

7、roduction capacity growth.2025:Forecasts show a range between 190 GWh and 1,050 GWh of annual production.2030:Forecasts have a larger range from 700 GWh to 2,500 GWh.Major Lithium-ion battery manufacturers have announced plans for,or are in the process of,constructing new battery cell factories for

8、the global market-estimated to represent nearly 3 terawatt-hour(TWh)of new battery production capacity.The large ranges of the different forecasts and the ambiguity regarding the actual amount of production that will materialize as well as its geographic distribution adds to the uncertainty that new

9、 production/capacity will fully meet growing demand.Future Global Lithium-ion Battery Demand and Production Capacity2020-2030Sources:ARGONNE:Future global Li-ion battery demand and production capacity,2020-2030.BMO:Bank ofMontreal,BNEF:Bloomberg New EnergyFinance,CES:Circular Energy Storage,LU:Leide

10、n University,ANL:Argonne National Laboratory,WEF:World Economic Forum.Note:Roland Berger provided 2019 estimates instead of 2020,hence the omitted data points for those sources in 2020.Copyright 2022 APEC SecretariatEV Battery Manufacturers(Global)CATL,32.5%LG Energy,21.5%Panasonic,14.7%BYD,6.9%Sams

11、ung,5.4%SK,CALB,2.7%AEFC,2.0%Guoxuan,2.0%PEVE,1.3%Other,6.1%Top 10 EV Battery Manufacturers(%of world Production)China,44%Korea,32%Japan,18.0%Other,6%EV Battery Manufacturing by Economy(%of World Prooduction)Copyright 2022 APEC SecretariatBattery Inputs and EV Supply Chain Stability It is critical t

12、hat EV battery production/capacity match the growth in EV demand and sales.This will require access to a growing volume of the essential inputs(ranging from key raw materials/minerals to finished components)necessary for EV batteries,motors and electronic controls.Examples include-lithium,cobalt,man

13、ganese,nickel,aluminum,graphite,steel and copper for EV batteries(primarily lithium-ion battery chemistries),rare-earth minerals and copper for EV motors,as well as semiconductors(with a heavier use in EVs than ICE powered vehicles).With the inherent supply chain bottlenecks and lack of diversified

14、sources for some of these inputs as well as the impact of the semiconductor shortage crisis and the lessons learned from that there is an understandable concern regarding potential crises emerging in the EV battery supply-chain.EV BATTERY MATERIALS(lithium-Ion)Amount Contained in the Average EV batt

15、ery 2020(Kilogram)MaterialKilogram(lbs)%of WeightGraphite(natural)52(115)28.1%Aluminum35(77)18.9%Nickel29(64)15.7%Copper20(44)10.8%Steel20(44)10.8%Manganese10(22)5.4%Cobalt8(18)4.3%Lithium6(13)3.2%Iron5(11)2.7%TOTAL185(408)Copyright 2022 APEC SecretariatBattery Chemistry and Cost EV Supply Chain Due

16、 to the following factors,automakers need a high level of stability and predictability to optimally perform.Long and highly complex supply chains Capital intensive nature of the motor vehicle manufacturing sector The need for long lead-times for future model years The EV battery market is still in i

17、ts infancy.It has significant anticipated growth in demand and production capacity on the horizon,however:Battery chemistry is continuing to evolve quickly.New and improved chemistries can be expected in the future.In fact,today 80%of EV batteries are nickel-based,but lithium iron phosphate(LFP)batt

18、eries,which do not use any nickel,cobalt or manganese,are gaining popularity.The price of key inputs has been volatile,and generally increasing along with the demand.Copyright 2022 APEC SecretariatStatus of Automotive RecyclingAutomotive Reuse and RecyclingThe automobile is the most reused and recyc

19、led consumer product in the world today.Around the world,about 27 million cars reach the end of their useful lives each year.In the US,approximately 95 percent of vehicles retired from use are processed for recycling each year.This industry is worth$32 billion annually,and employs 140,000 Americans.

20、Each day over 500,000 recycled OEM parts are sold directly to vehicle owners,repair shops and automobile dealers.Using recycled OEM parts for your vehicle repair is perhaps the purest form of recycling.Recycled parts will significantly reduce your vehicle repair costs without sacrificing quality.App

21、roximately 86%of a vehicles material content is recycled,reused or used for energy recovery with metal being the largest target material.Typically vehicles in North America are composed of approximately 20%post-consumer recycled material by weight.The recycling of end-of-life vehicles saves an estim

22、ated 85 million barrels of oil that would have been used in the manufacturing of new or replacement parts,leading to significant reductions in air and water pollution.GHG emissions are also estimated to be reduced by over 30 million metric tons per year.Copyright 2022 APEC SecretariatRole of Battery

23、 Recycling When an EV comes off the road,whether due to its age or a crash,its battery must be processed.End-of-life pathways include:Reusing the battery in other applications Recycling the batterys materials Disposal Even if a battery is reused,eventually its materials need to be recycled or dispos

24、ed.Market forces and government policies can play a critical role.Helpful policies,include efforts to encourage the market to engage and ensuring that batteries are designed to make it easier to recycle.Producing more EVs will require new raw materials,but eventually,recycled materials from used bat

25、teries could meet a significant portion of new material demand and eventually reduce the amount of mining needed for EV batteries,and Create a more stable and predictable source of materials for EV batteries Reduce the demand for raw materials Minimize the risks of geopolitical disruptions of the su

26、pply chainMeeting US Passenger EV Battery Demand with Recycled Materials,2035Source:Union of Concerned Scientists https:/www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/2021-02/ev-battery-recycling-fact-sheet.pdfMine-to-Wheel Life Cycle Global Warming Emissions of Different Vehicle TypesCopyright 2022 APEC SecretariatTHANK YOUApec.orgAPECnewsAPECRebecca_APECapecAPECAPEC-Asia-Pacific Economic CooperationFind out moreAPEC Online and Social MediaCopyright 2022 APEC Secretariat