1、Copyright 2022 APEC SecretariatCarbon-Neutral Fuel(CNF)Biofuels/Synthetic FuelsMr.Hitoshi HayashiChair of JAMA Fuel&Lubricants Subcommittee,Japan Agenda 2.2 Biofuels Contribution to Carbon NeutralityTues 13 September,2022Copyright 2022 APEC SecretariatJAMAs Stance on Carbon NeutralityJAMAs Stance on

2、 Carbon NeutralityThe use of CNF is a key pathway to carbon neutrality by 2050.The use of CNF is a key pathway to carbon neutrality by 2050.JAMA StanceJAMA StanceJAMAJAMA membermember companiescompanies willwill makemake utmostutmost effortsefforts forfor carboncarbon neutralityneutrality byby205020

3、50.Stance on CarbonStance on Carbon-Neutral Fuel(CNF)Neutral Fuel(CNF)JAMA CommentsJAMA Comments The goal is carbon neutrality(CN).The goal is carbon neutrality(CN).Approaches to achieving CN should be technologyApproaches to achieving CN should be technology-neutral.neutral.A diversity of options i

4、s crucial to achieving A diversity of options is crucial to achieving our goals.our goals.There are optimal pathways to CN for individual There are optimal pathways to CN for individual economieseconomies.Copyright 2022 APEC SecretariatBackground:The Need for CarbonBackground:The Need for Carbon-Neu

5、tral FuelNeutral Fuel-FindingsFindings showshow thethe potentialpotential forfor globalglobal COCO2 2emissionsemissions reductionreduction inin automotiveautomotive transporttransport toto bebe ininlineline withwith thethe IPCCsIPCCs 20502050 1 1.5 50 0C C climateclimate scenariosscenarios.IPCC:Inte

6、rgovernmental Panel on Climate Change-TheThe IEAsIEAs NZENZE scenarioscenario is is premisedpremised onon oneone pathwaypathway towardstowards carboncarbon neutrality,neutrality,butbut thethe JAMAJAMA studystudyconfirmsconfirms thatthat thethe useuse ofof carboncarbon-neutralneutral fuelfuel(CNF)(CN

7、F)is is anotheranother pathwaypathway forfor a a widewide rangerange ofof newnew andandinin-useuse vehiclesvehicles includingincluding partiallypartially electrifiedelectrified vehiclesvehicles suchsuch asas HEVsHEVs andand PHEVsPHEVs.A ScenarioA Scenario-Based JAMA Study to Determine Possible Pathw

8、aysBased JAMA Study to Determine Possible PathwaysTheThe purposepurpose ofof thethe JAMAJAMA studystudy waswas toto determine,determine,basedbased onon quantitativequantitative assessments,assessments,possiblepossible pathwayspathways toto bebe pursuedpursued towardstowards carboncarbon neutralityne

9、utrality byby 20502050.Summary of Study FindingsSummary of Study Findings2050 Scenario Designation&DefinitionBEV/FCEV Share of New Passenger Car Sales2050/2020 ProjectedCNF Share inAutomotive Fuel MixWorldwideGroup 1Group 2Scenario 0 BAU1BAUScenario 1 CNF:Wide use of CNF4050%25%30%approx.Scenario 2

10、BEV75:Wide electrified vehicle adoption75100%50%20%approx.Scenario 3 NZE:100%BEVs/FCEVs(IEA NZE2scenario)100100%100%7%(biofuel only)1 BAU:“Business as usual”;2 IEA:International Energy Agency;NZE:“Net Zero Emissions by 2050”Group 1:Japan;North America;Europe;etc.Group2:India;ASEAN;etc.Copyright 2022

11、 APEC SecretariatBackground:The Need for CarbonBackground:The Need for Carbon-Neutral FuelNeutral FuelIn all three scenarios,COIn all three scenarios,CO2 2emissions are in line with emissions are in line with the IPCCs 1.5the IPCCs 1.50 0C climate goal.C climate goal.Projected rates of CNF supplyPro

12、jected rates of CNF supplyBased on the assumptions made Based on the assumptions made in Scenarios 1 and 2 of the JAMA in Scenarios 1 and 2 of the JAMA study,the share of CNF in the study,the share of CNF in the global automotive fuel mix in global automotive fuel mix in 2050/2020 is estimated at 20

13、50/2020 is estimated at approximately approximately 20 to 30%.20 to 30%.Estimated CO2Emissions Reductions Worldwide,by ScenarioIf you are interested in this study,please contact us.If you are interested in this study,please contact us.CNF:30%CNF:20%Copyright 2022 APEC SecretariatTowards Carbon Neutr

14、ality(Automotive)Towards Carbon Neutrality(Automotive)Gasoline,DieselElectricityHydrogenHEVsBEVsPHEVsFCEVsCarbonCarbon-ReducingReducingC-N FuelBiofuels,E-fuelsC-N ElectricityC-NHydrogenHEVsBEVsPHEVsFCEVsICEVsCarbonCarbon-NeutralNeutralICE:Internal combustion engineCarbonCarbon-neutral fuel neutral f

15、uel is one of the promising options for achieving is one of the promising options for achieving carboncarbon-neutral automotive transport and a carbonneutral automotive transport and a carbon-neutral societyneutral society.Copyright 2022 APEC SecretariatWhat is CarbonWhat is Carbon-Neutral Fuel?Neut

16、ral Fuel?Industrial synthesisIndustrial synthesis合成合成燃料燃料Synthetic fuelsSynthetic fuels(e(e-fuels)fuels)COCO2 2COCO2 2BiomassBiomassPhotosynthesisPhotosynthesisH2H2Renewable energyRenewable energyBiofuelsBiofuels（lowlow-carbon fuel)carbon fuel)DAC DAC(Direct Air Capture)(Direct Air Capture)Industria

17、l synthesisroutePhotosynthesisrouteBiofuelsBiofuels:There is a:There is a high potential high potential for biomass utilization in for biomass utilization in ASEANASEAN.Synthetic fuels:Synthetic fuels:Use expected for CNF,but commercialization takes time.Use expected for CNF,but commercialization ta

18、kes time.Copyright 2022 APEC SecretariatRenewable energy availability fluctuates greatly.Renewable energy availability fluctuates greatly.Therefore,from the viewpoint of energy security,Therefore,from the viewpoint of energy security,the use of liquid CNF has the use of liquid CNF has great signific

19、ance.great significance.In addition,by converting surplus electricity into liquid CNF,longIn addition,by converting surplus electricity into liquid CNF,long-term term storage is possible.storage is possible.Since CNF is also effective in reducing the CO2 emissions of Since CNF is also effective in r

20、educing the CO2 emissions of inin-use vehicles,it can be expected to have an immediate impact on use vehicles,it can be expected to have an immediate impact on vehiclevehicle-fleet carbon emissions.fleet carbon emissions.And its high energy density makes it very consumerAnd its high energy density m

21、akes it very consumer-friendly,enhancing its friendly,enhancing its potential for widespread use.potential for widespread use.The market supply of liquid CNF does not require the creation of new The market supply of liquid CNF does not require the creation of new infrastructure,and thereby enables r

22、educed investment and employment infrastructure,and thereby enables reduced investment and employment retention.retention.Merits of CNFMerits of CNFCopyright 2022 APEC SecretariatSteps Towards the CN Goal Using Liquid CNFSteps Towards the CN Goal Using Liquid CNFStep 1Step 1Step 2Step 2Step 3Step 3C

23、NF:Carbon-neutral fuelLCF:Low-carbon fuelHVO:Hydrotreated vegetable oilRequired TechnologiesRequired TechnologiesImproved vehicle fuel efficiencyTechnologies for low-concentration biofuelsDevelopment of low-cost CNFCN biofuel(CI*is 0)In-use vehicle compatibility with CNFFurther development of CNFRed

24、uction of biofuel CI*High-concentration bio-compatible vehicle CNF supply(eCNF supply(e-fuel)fuel)CI:Carbon intensity Increased LCF supply(e.g.Increased LCF supply(e.g.HVO)+Small CNF supply HVO)+Small CNF supply Fuel efficiency Fuel efficiency BiofuelBiofuel Fuel qualityFuel qualityCNF:CarbonCNF:Car

25、bon-Neutral FuelNeutral FuelIncreased supply of Increased supply of CNFCNFLCF:LowLCF:Low-Carbon FuelCarbon FuelIncreased supply of LCFIncreased supply of LCFb biofueliofuelImproved Fuel Efficiency&BiofuelImproved Fuel Efficiency&Biofuel2022202220402040203020302050/602050/60Optimal pathways Optimal p

26、athways for all economies should for all economies should be determined.be determined.Copyright 2022 APEC SecretariatTypes of Types of Biofuels Biofuels Synthetic FuelsSynthetic FuelsCopyright 2022 APEC SecretariatBiofuel and Synthetic Fuel Production ProcessesBiofuel and Synthetic Fuel Production P

27、rocessesCO2H2MethaneCH4MethanolCH3OHDMEMTG gasolineMTG gasolineSyngasCOH2CO2from DACBiomassRenewableRenewableenergyenergyGasolineGasolineFT FT(Fischer(Fischer-TropschTropsch)Synthetic FuelSynthetic FuelJet fuelJet fuelSameSame-time time generationgenerationSynthesisSynthesisDiesel fuelDiesel fuelEth

28、anolEthanolFAMEFAMESugarcane,cornFeedstocksFeedstocksRapeseed,soy,palmWaste cooking oilWaste cooking oilAlgaeAlgae等等FAME:Fatty acid methyl etherHVO:Hydrotreated vegetable oilMTG:Methanol-to-gasolineETG:Ethanol-to-gasolineHVOHVOJet,DieselJet,DieselJet,DieselJet,DieselGasolineGasolineBiogasBiogasBioma

29、ssBiomassETG gasolineETG gasolineSynthesisSynthesisUpgUpgraderadeGreen hydrogenGreen hydrogenCopyright 2022 APEC SecretariatWorldwide Synthetic Fuel Production ProjectionsWorldwide Synthetic Fuel Production Projections Commercialization Commercialization of synthetic fuel of synthetic fuel takes tim

30、etakes time.JAMA JAMA promotes itpromotes it,so,so we hope to discuss it at another we hope to discuss it at another time.time.Utilization of Utilization of biofuel is important biofuel is important during the during the transition periodtransition period.NorwayNorwaySynthetic 0.01 Synthetic 0.01 Mk

31、LMkL(2023(2023)UAEUAEHydrogenHydrogenGWGWJapanJapanSynthetic 0.58 Synthetic 0.58 MkLMkL(2040(2040）CanadaCanadaSynthetic 0.12 Synthetic 0.12 MkLMkL(2025(2025）SpainSpainSynthetic 3600 Synthetic 3600 kLkL(2024)(2024)Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia2022 For racing2022 For racingChileChileFor racing(2022For raci

32、ng(2022)0.55 0.55 MkLMkL(2026(2026)The USAThe USAGasoline 0.05 Gasoline 0.05 MkLMkL(2024(2024）Copyright 2022 APEC SecretariatEUE5/E10IndiaE0/E10(E20,E100 policy was proposed.)ChinaE5/E10JapanE3/E10CanadaE0/E10BrazilE27/E100FranceE10/E85AustraliaE0/E10ThailandE10/E20/E85The USAE10/E15/E85IndonesiaE0/

33、E10Preferential tax on E100World Trends in Biofuel Use:EthanolWorld Trends in Biofuel Use:EthanolE E:Current regulatory level:Current regulatory levelE#:High bioethanol content E#:High bioethanol content Higher levels Higher levels u under nder consideration consideration Ethanol is used in many eco

34、nomies worldwide.Ethanol is used in many economies worldwide.Many economies have plans to increase ethanol content.Many economies have plans to increase ethanol content.Copyright 2022 APEC SecretariatNorway,Finland,Sweden,Belgium,NetherlandsB100(HVO100)ColombiaB12B10The USAB5/B20 Minnesota(summer)Fr

35、anceB10IndiaB7MalaysiaB7/B20ArgentinaB10B7B10?EUB7ThailandB7/B20IndonesiaB0/B30BrazilB10/B15(2025)World Trends in Biofuel Use:Biodiesel(FAME,HVO)World Trends in Biofuel Use:Biodiesel(FAME,HVO)The use of FAME is expected to increase in some economies.The use of FAME is expected to increase in some ec

36、onomies.Some economies in Europe use Some economies in Europe use highhigh-concentration HVOconcentration HVO.Copyright 2022 APEC SecretariatFuel Quality/Vehicle Technologies InterfaceFuel Quality/Vehicle Technologies Interface Vehicle technologies and fuel quality Vehicle technologies and fuel qual

37、ity work together interdependentlywork together interdependently.Testing Testing should be conducted on vehicles using should be conducted on vehicles using appropriate fuelsappropriate fuels.Copyright 2022 APEC SecretariatMajor Challenges for Supplying BioMajor Challenges for Supplying Bio-/Synthet

38、ic Fuels/Synthetic FuelsIssuesIssuesProposed measuresProposed measuresBiofuels Securing raw materials High cost ASEAN has resource potential.Each economy imbalances to be resolved.1st-generation biotechnology drawback=land-use competition with food resources,sustainability(deforestation,etc.)Promoti

39、on of 2nd-generation biofuels Expansion of certification system forland-use allocationSynthetic fuels High costJoint efforts by stakeholders needed from the perspective of manufacturing,supplying and using CN fuelsJAMA is investigating these issues.Supply Efficiency CO2 emissions calculation methods

40、Shared Impacts on vehicleJAMA hopes to discuss these issues with experts from each JAMA hopes to discuss these issues with experts from each economyeconomy.Copyright 2022 APEC SecretariatSummarySummary1.1.CNF is one of the key pathways to the 2050 carbon neutrality goal.CNF is one of the key pathway

41、s to the 2050 carbon neutrality goal.2.CNF has merits in terms of energy security,immediate impact,2.CNF has merits in terms of energy security,immediate impact,user convenience,and utilization of existing infrastructure.user convenience,and utilization of existing infrastructure.3.However,there are

42、 issues such as cost,supply volumes,stable 3.However,there are issues such as cost,supply volumes,stable securing of raw materials,so therefore:securing of raw materials,so therefore:The adoption of a specific strategy for the leadThe adoption of a specific strategy for the lead-up to CN as well as

43、joint up to CN as well as joint initiatives by industry,government,and academia in its implementation initiatives by industry,government,and academia in its implementation are necessary.are necessary.Discussions among stakeholders are necessary.Discussions among stakeholders are necessary.4.ASEAN ha

44、s abundant bio resources.4.ASEAN has abundant bio resources.Especially in the transition period to CN,the use of biofuels is among Especially in the transition period to CN,the use of biofuels is among the most practical approaches to the challenge.the most practical approaches to the challenge.5.JA

45、MA has been promoting CNF research and studies,and hopes to5.JAMA has been promoting CNF research and studies,and hopes tocooperate with/support economies in their efforts.cooperate with/support economies in their efforts.Copyright 2022 APEC SecretariatThank you very much Thank you very much for your attention.for your attention.Apec.orgAPECnewsAPECRebecca_APECapecAPECAPEC-Asia-Pacific Economic CooperationFind out moreAPEC Online and Social MediaCopyright 2022 APEC Secretariat