1、1,618 dayswind African Energy Atlasafrica-energy-2020/2021 editionISSN 2046-0473Share of global oil productionAccess toElectricity(2017)GenerationNatural gas productionup by 4.8%Installed capacityNew capacity in 2019227GW9.6GW8.6%53%36,061MWHydro18,854MWLiquid fuels49,110MWCoal66,061MWNatural gasAve

2、rage time PPAsigning to operationAnnual solar capacity increase52%African Energy Atlas 2020/2021 EditorThalia Griffiths-thaliaafrica-CartographerDavid BurlesContributing EditorsDan Marks,John Hamilton,Jon MarksEmail:subscriptionscbi-Web:www.africa- 2020 Cross-border Information.All rights reserved.D

3、ata and information published in the African Energy Atlas isprovided to Cross-border Information(CbI)by its staff and networkof correspondents through extensive surveys of sources andpublished with the intention of being accurate.CbI cannot insureagainst or be held responsible for inaccuracies and a

4、ssumes noliability for any loss whatsoever arising from use of such data.No portion of this publication may be photocopied,reproduced,retransmitted,put into a computer system or otherwiseredistributed without prior authorisation from Cross-borderInformation.Registered office:4 Bank Buildings,Station

5、 Road,Hastings,EastSussex TN34 1NG,UK.Directors:JJ Marks,JM Ford,JD Hamilton,NJ Carn,E Gillespie2 AFRICAN ENERGY ATLAS 2020/2021 APRIL 2020Cover illustrationPower generation data is taken from African Energy Live Data and isfor end 2019,except average time from PPA signing to operation,whichis based

6、 on all available information in the database.Electricity access data is sourced from the SEforALL/World Bankdatabase.Oil and gas data is for 2018 and taken from the BP Statistical Reviewof World Energy,June 2019.Power definitionsStatus:Operating:plants that are producing electricity,even if this is

7、substantially below maximum capacity.Construction:building work is ongoing at the site.Planned:any project which has not yet begun construction.Thisincludes projects which are at a very early stage of development,such as identified hydro sites,as well as those which are muchmore advanced.The data ta

8、bles shown under the maps refer onlyto projects with a planned commercial operation date of 2025 orearlier.Fuels:Natural gas:any plant fuelled by natural gas,whatever the source,including both LNG and pipeline gas.Liquid fuels:includes all fuel oils,crude oils,shale oil and liquidgases.Coal:technolo

9、gies using coal as the original source of energy.Nuclear:refers to technologies utilising the energy containedwithin the atomic structure of matter,including both fission andfusion.Hydroelectricity:any technology based on the movement orweight of water from a river or reservoir,including pumpedstora

10、ge.Solar:any technology producing electricity using energy fromthe sun.Wind:any technology producing electricity using energy fromthe wind.Geothermal:any plant using underground temperaturedifferentials to produce power.Biomass:technology using organic matter as a feedstock,including biogas technolo

11、gies.Other:includes combinations of fuels and hybrids where theindividual capacities are not known,as well as ocean technologies,coal bed methane and industrial process heat.About the AtlasThe power maps in the African Energy Atlas 2020/2021 areinformed by African Energy Live Data,an industry-leadin

12、gdatabase with detailed entries on more than 6,500 powergeneration plants and projects.The Atlas is necessarilyconstrained in the number of projects that can be displayed.For more information please see the following note onpower definitions and visit the African Energy website,whereyou may explore

13、the interactive Live Data map.Cartographer David Burles has used a wide variety of othersources to craft the maps but while considerably more opensource material is available to inform our maps and graphicsthan when the Atlas was first published in 2007,huge gapsremain to even the most fundamental d

14、ata sets.We welcome positive and negative feedback,and datasuggestions to enrich forthcoming editions.Please contactpublishing director Nick Carn(nickafrica-).ContentsAFRICAN ENERGY ATLAS 2020/2021 APRIL 2020 3FOCUSIntroduction 4On-grid generation capacity,Access to electricity 5African Energy Live

15、Data 6Roads,railways,ports,airports 12Climate,population,income,fossil fuels,power generation 13Finance 14Political risk ratings 15Regional groupings 16Economic Africa 17Sovereign ratings 17Economic indicators by country 18Key energy trends 20POWER National power companies 21Regional power pools 21T

16、rends 22North Africa 24Morocco 25Algeria 26Tunisia 27Libya 28Egypt 29The Mediterranean Basin 30Sub-Saharan Africa 32West African Power Pool 32Southern Africa Power Pool 33Senegal,Mauritania,The Gambia,Guinea-Bissau 34Guinea,Sierra Leone,Liberia,Cape Verde 35Cte dIvoire 36Ghana,Togo,Benin 37Nigeria 3

17、8Mali,Burkina Faso,Niger 40Cameroon,Central African Republic,Chad 41Rep.of Congo,Gabon,Equatorial Guinea,STP 42Central African Power Pool 43Democratic Republic of Congo 43Sudan,South Sudan 44Ethiopia,Eritrea,Djibouti,Somalia 45Uganda 46Kenya 47Rwanda,Burundi,Malawi 48Eastern Africa Power Pool 48Tanz

18、ania 49Angola 50Namibia 51Zambia 52Zimbabwe 53Botswana 54Mozambique 55South Africa,eSwatini,Lesotho 56Madagascar,Indian Ocean islands 58UPSTREAM OIL AND GASNational oil and gas companies and state regulators 59Opec,GECF,EITI 59North Africa 60Morocco 61Algeria 62Tunisia 64Libya 65Egypt 66Sub-Saharan

19、Africa 69Mauritania,Senegal,The Gambia 71Guinea,Guinea-Bissau,Sierra Leone,Liberia 72Mali,Burkina Faso,Niger,Chad,Central African Rep.73Cte dIvoire 74Ghana,Togo,Benin 75Cameroon 76Nigeria 77Niger Delta 78Equatorial Guinea,So Tom and Prncipe 80Gabon 81Republic of Congo 82Democratic Republic of Congo

20、83Sudan,South Sudan 84Ethiopia,Eritrea,Djibouti 85Somalia 86Angola 87Uganda,Rwanda,Burundi 89Kenya 90Tanzania 91Zambia,Zimbabwe,Malawi,Botswana 92Mozambique,Ruvuma Basin 93Namibia 94South Africa 95Madagascar,Indian Ocean 96DOWNSTREAM 98Primary energy demand projections 99Oil refineries,CTL and GTL p

21、lants 100Gas development and commerce 1024 AFRICAN ENERGY ATLAS 2020/2021 APRIL 2020IntroductionThe outlook for Africa was unusually positive when thelast edition of the African Energy Atlas was published in2018.“Peaceful political transitions,an upturn in naturalresources prices and a broader range

22、 of investors enteringelectricity supply and other industries all point to theemergence of a more dynamic,mature continental economy,”the introduction asserted,marking the Atlass second decade ofpublication.Maps and graphics in this new edition similarlychart positive trends in politics,economic man

23、agement,technological change and sustainable investment not least thenumber of renewable energy schemes now under way buteven before the Covid-19 pandemic locked down the globaleconomy,the trends recorded in Atlas 2020/2021 were far froma celebration of good news across the continent.Africas needs r

24、emain huge and daunting:the AfricanDevelopment Bank calculates that upgrading the continentsinfrastructure needs some$130bn-$170bn/yr;the financing gapis$68bn-$108bn/yr(see Finance).There has been an upturn inprivate equity and some other investment,but they are nowherenear the levels that can start

25、 to address infrastructure shortfallsand lack of access to sustainable clean energy.Governance remains spotty,with some advances but alsobackward steps.Benin and Zambia were among the firstcountries to replace autocracy with democracy in 1991,as abonus from the end of the Cold War,but are now ranked

26、 onlypartly free by Freedom House.Indeed,the US advocacy groupnow ranks only five African polities in its highest free category;by this metric some 20 states are still not free at all.Short-term problems may be exacerbated by underlyingweaknesses.As Atlas 2020/2021 was published,the coronavirusepide

27、mic was spreading worldwide,while crude oil prices hadhit record low levels,below even those of the 2007-08 globalfinancial crisis.Coronavirus highlights global vulnerabilities thatcan floor interconnected economies.Even if Europe and theUS have erected ever more barriers to migration,the outbreakha

28、s shown how walls alone cannot solve global problems.Africas rural exodus has created megacities like Lagos,Cairoand Kinshasa,whose populations live between extreme wealthand grinding poverty.Providing adequate services has becomea defining political issue of the decade,as urban and peri-urbanpopula

29、tions demand higher standards of education,health andaccess to energy from often creaking state bodies.Enlightened governments are seeking to rise to this challenge,by accelerating moves to create more investor-friendly andinnovative environments.Countries like Ghana and Kenya havedramatically raise

30、d access levels;Egypt,Morocco and SouthAfrica(at least until its governance crisis)have developedstructures to attract investment in solar power and otherrenewable energies.Mozambiques efforts to work with IOCsmean its natural gas exports are set to take off while its northernneighbour Tanzanias res

31、ources remain in the ground.Governance moves The trend towards improved governance has continued its slowupward trajectory.Some of Africas old-school tyrants havedeparted Zimbabwes Robert Mugabe died in 2019 andEgypts Hosni Mubarak in February 2020 and a few leadershave been elected without drawing

32、on traditionalconstituencies,such as Tunisias President Kais Saied.Theremoval of Jacob Zuma and his replacement as president byCyril Ramaphosa helped stem a disastrous trend towards statecapture in South Africa.In Nigeria,President MuhammaduBuhari can claim a few wins against the kleptocracy that so

33、undermines Africas most populous country.But much remains to be done:South Africa is a better placeafter Zuma,but Ramaphosa has yet to reverse a decline that hastaken Eskom from being one of the worlds top four powercompanies to the edge of collapse.Nigerian reforms have failedto make any impact on

34、the oil industry and other drivers ofextreme graft.A number of elderly rulers hang on after decadesin power.While francophone West African countries are lookingto mark their improving economic performance with atransition from the CFA franc to a new currency,the eco,theirCentral African counterparts

35、 remain mired in problems.Stability is a prized commodity,with violence involving jihadistmilitias wracking the Sahel undermining hard-earnedinvestment efforts by Burkina Faso and Mali,among others and making Central African Republic all but ungovernable.Political transitions in Algeria and Sudan ha

36、ve yet to prove thatestablished structures can be overthrown by popularmovements,despite the creation of a civilian/militarytransitional government in Khartoum.Reforms since AbiyAhmed became Ethiopias prime minister impressed sufficientlyto win him the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize,but questions haveemerge

37、d about the trajectory of change.On the resources front,major minerals and hydrocarbons playshave until now been driven by demand from China,and otherindustrialised nations.Africa played an important role inEconomies battle to accommodate carbontransition amid uncertaintyInvestors are being asked to

38、 provide unprecedented funding to help Africa tackle climate change and transitiontowards a post-carbon economy.The African Energy Atlas 2020/2021 seeks to provide an overview of trends ininfrastructure and resources,along with an idea of some of the many policy challenges confronting the continent

39、SectionBeijings rise to global power status,with China providingunprecedented levels of finance and infrastructuredevelopments,in parallel with its appetite for natural resources.This means China now serves as the prism through which othernations define their relations with Africa.Growing strategic

40、competition has become apparent duringDonald Trumps presidency,but involves more than just the US,China and former colonial powers.Newer players like Turkey,the UAE and Russia are making a mark on African conflictsand investment plays,while governments are increasinglyrealising they can use this com

41、petition to their advantage.Carbon in transitionThe 2014 oil price crash caused havoc in many resourceproducers.Covid-19 and conflict between key producers wrecking the historic 2016 deal between Opec states,led bySaudi Arabia,and non-Opec countries,led by Russia flooredthe market in March 2020,just

42、 as oil-dependent economies likeRepublic of Congo were claiming some recovery.Thesedevelopments could have long-term ramifications for oil pricesand for the industry itself.Resources developers face longer-term problems in a world looking to tackle climate change bytransiting out of carbon.While man

43、y producer governments arestill in denial,their prized oil and coal reserves may never bedeveloped.Many will be left with stranded assets,even if globaloil consumption remains at around 100m b/d.As the carbon transition accelerates,rising electric car sales inwealthier economies will lead more oil g

44、iants to becomerenewables-focused a trend already under way at majors suchas BP,Eni,Shell and Total.Gas producers seem in a betterposition,as they supply the transition fuel necessary to balanceAFRICAN ENERGY ATLAS 2020/2021 APRIL 2020 591 100%61 90%31 60%16 30%0 15%No data20,000MW+5,000MW 19,999MW1

45、,500MW 4,999MW500MW 1,499MW100MW 499MWLess than 100MWEGYPT100ALGERIA100ETHIOPIA44SOUTHAFRICA84ANGOLA42NIGERIA54LIBYA70MOROCCO100GHANA79ZAMBIA40UGANDA22KENYA64CAMEROON61MALI43DEM.REP.OF CONGO19NIGER20EQUAT.GUINEA 67TANZANIA33SUDAN56TOGO 48SENEGAL62MOZAMBIQUE27BOTSWANA63BENIN 43RWANDA 34NAMIBIA53GABON

46、92MADAGASCAR24MALAWI13BURUNDI 9GUINEA-BISSAU26ZIMBABWE40THE GAMBIA56SIERRA LEONE 23SOUTHSUDAN25SOMALIA33BURKINAFASO 25LIBERIA 21MAURITANIA43GUINEA35C?TED?IVOIRE66MAURITIUS98EGYPT59,885ALGERIA21,134ETHIOPIA4,270SOUTHAFRICA56,329ANGOLA5,715NIGERIA13,278LIBYA10,890MOROCCO9,576GHANA5,059ZAMBIA2,878UGAND

47、A1,177KENYA2,788CAMEROON1,478MALI667DEM.REP.OF CONGO2,376NIGER170EQUAT.GUINEA 339TANZANIA1,512SUDAN3,941TOGO 201SENEGAL1,226MOZAMBIQUE2,875BOTSWANA795BENIN 226RWANDA 186NAMIBIA622GABON709MADAGASCAR734MALAWI459BURUNDI 73GUINEA-BISSAU50ZIMBABWE2,294THE GAMBIA128SIERRA LEONE158SOUTHSUDAN12SOMALIA7BURKI

48、NAFASO 402LIBERIA 148MAURITANIA368GUINEA647C?TED?IVOIRE2,179S?O TOM?&PRNCIPE 37MAURITIUS711CAPEVERDE234C.A.R.25CHAD121COMOROS 41REP.OFCONGO783DJIBOUTI 143ERITREA 160LESOTHO 76SEYCHELLES109ESWATINI 100TUNISIA 5,980CAPEVERDE93C.A.R.30CHAD11SEYCHELLES100COMOROS 80REP.OFCONGO66DJIBOUTI 60ERITREA 48LESOT

49、HO 34ESWATINI 74TUNISIA 100S?O TOM?&PRNCIPE 73W Sahara(under UNmandate)549PERCENTAGE OFPOPULATION WITH ACCESSTO ELECTRICITY,2017Source:SEforAll,The Energy Progress Report 2019 African Energy 2020(www.africa-)INSTALLED ON-GRIDGENERATIONCAPACITY,2019Source:African Energy Live Data African Energy 2020(

50、www.africa-)The Atlas teamThe African Energy Atlas was created in 2007 to hold the growingstore of cartographic materials built up by the African Energynewsletter,created in April 1998.It has since grown into asignificant reference work covering African Energys core areas ofinterest:power,upstream o

51、il and gas,downstream hydrocarbonsand wider African finance and policy issues.This content iscomplemented by African Energy Live Data,an industry-leadingdatabase with entries on more than 6,500 power generationprojects and an ambitious growth trajectory.Many of the maps in Atlas 2020/2021 are inform

52、ed by Live Data,which along with a wide variety of other sources have been craftedinto maps by cartographer David Burles.African Energy editorThalia Griffiths leads the publication with articles from Griffiths,African Energy power editor Dan Marks,associate editor JohnHamilton and editorial director

53、 Jon Marks.electricity grids.However,even that could change as renewabletechnologies are increasingly supported by storageinfrastructure,allowing surplus solar and wind to be used atnight or during calm periods.Next-generation natural resource plays will be a feature of thischanging market,even befo

54、re hydrogen and other fuels emergeto further challenge hydrocarbons.Increased dependence onlithium batteries,cobalt,helium and other raw materials for newtechnologies will accentuate the growing competition betweenglobal corporations,China and other players for rare minerals.These are present in cou

55、ntries like Democratic Republic ofCongo that have been wracked by resource wars in previousdecades.While global industries enter a period of acceleratedchange,African governments will have to move prudently toavoid the same old problems re-emerging.6 AFRICAN ENERGY ATLAS 2020/2021 APRIL 2020African

56、Energy Live Data300,000275,000250,000225,000200,000175,000150,000125,000100,00075,00050,00025,000MW2051222324250Pipeline12,470MW12.4%7,739MW7.7%1,828MW1.8%21,383MW21.2%206MW 0.2%62MW 0.1%310MW 0.3%38,758MW38.4%17,560MW17.4%522MW 0.5%13MW 0.01%27,907MW19.3%12,983MW9.0%1,830MW1.3

57、%26,021MW18.0%41MW 0.03%1,084MW 0.7%210MW 0.1%599MW 0.4%559MW 0.4%42,733MW29.5%30,872MW21.3%67,433MW28.4%21,483MW9.0%45,968MW19.4%1,830MW0.8%50,006MW21.1%36,277MW15.3%5,628MW2.4%5,911MW 2.5%835MW 0.4%1,216MW 0.5%871MW 0.4%OtherBiomass/biogasGeothermalWindSolarHydroelectricityNuclearCoalNatural gas&l

58、iquid fuelsLiquid fuelsNatural gasNatural gasLiquid fuelsNatural gas&liquid fuelsCoalNuclearHydroelectricitySolarWindGeothermalBiomass/biogasOther*AFRICANorth AfricaWest AfricaCentral AfricaEast AfricaSouthern AfricaYES(4.4%/2.4%)YES(5.0%/1.9%)YES(4.8%/2.7%)YES(4.3%/2.8%)YES(3.3%/2.4%)YES(3.6%/2.4%)

59、Installed capacitykept up withpopulation?Increase ininstalled capacitygrowth rate?Installedcapacity kept upwith GDP growth?Proportion ofrenewablesincreased?Proportion of non-hydro renewablesincreased?Increase in non-hydro renewablesgrowth rate?Proportion of liquid fuels*decreased?SCORECARDFOR 2019Th

60、e Africa scorecard uses data from African Energy Live Data to provide snapshots ofthe state of the electricity sector during 2019.It illustrates whether electricity generation isexpanding at the same rate as population and GDP growth,whether renewable energy useis increasing and if the rate of incre

61、ase is being sustained,and whether reliance on costlyfuel oils is being reduced.*only plants running exclusively on liquid fuels are included in this figureSources:population and GDP from the International Monetary Fund(2020);African Energy Live Data African Energy 2020(www.africa-)NO(4.4%/9.0%)NO(5

62、.0%/16.7%)YES(4.8%/2.3%)YES(4.3%/3.2%)NO(3.3%/8.0%)YES(3.6%/2.5%)NO(4.4%/5.6%)NO(5.0%/8.5%)NO(4.8%/9.5%)YES(4.3%/4.0%)NO(3.3%/7.6%)YES(3.6%/2.5%)YES(21%/20%)YES(10%/8%)NO(20%/20%)NO(65%/65%)YES(63%/62%)NO(25%/25%)YES(6%/5%)YES(5%/4%)YES(2.0%/1.7%)NO(0.2%/0.2%)YES(15%/12%)NO(6.5%/6.5%)YES(23%/20%)NO(

63、45%/48%)YES(25%/18%)NO(0%/9.7%)YES(25%/18%)NO(3.5%/5.1%)NO(9.3%/9.2%)NO(4.5%/4.4%)NO(18%/16%)YES(14.2%/14.8%)YES(27%/29%)NO(8.5%/8.5%)ALL AFRICA ENERGY MIX(on-grid&distributed),201025All statistics were compiled before the impact of the coronavirus on the Africanpower industry or economy could be as

64、sessed.*distributed includes off-gridand plants embedded within thegrid but supplying third partiessuch as industries and mines.*other includes combinationsof fuels and hybrids where theindividual capacities are notknown,as well as oceantechnologies,coal bed methaneand industrial process heat.Source

65、:African Energy Live Data African Energy 2020(www.africa-)ALL AFRICA ENERGY MIX(on-grid&distributed*)African Energy 2020(www.africa-)Source:African Energy Live Data200020102019The graphics contained in these pages from African Energy LiveData illustrate the many transitions that Africa is going thro

66、ughand that these are still only at an early stage.The scorecard shows that the growth rate of non-hydropowerrenewable power continues to be exponential,with a year-on-year increase of 23%in 2019 compared to 20%in 2018.Overall growth of installed capacity has slowed however,ascan be seen from the sc

67、orecard,and the proportion of costlyand polluting liquid fuels in the energy mix marginallyincreased.This hints at underlying transitions in market structure whichhave slowed the pace of growth.Attention has shifted totransmission and distribution,while many governments arelooking to the private sec

68、tor for investment and scaling backthe role of state-owned enterprises.The graph on page 9 showing net capacity additions byownership type shows that by 2022,more than half of newcapacity additions in each region will be privately funded.Giventhe short lead times of private wind and solar plants thi

69、s is likelyto be an underestimate.Regionally,North Africa will continue to be the largest marketbut other regions are set to gain in importance.West andSouthern Africa have growing pipelines of projects which arehere significantly underestimated because likely largeSectionWSHNC2LGINSTALLED ON-GRID G

70、ENERATION CAPACITY BY COUNTRY AND FUEL,Q1 2020AlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBurkina FasoBurundiCameroonCape VerdeCentral African RepublicChadComorosCongo,Dem.Rep.Congo,Rep.(Brazzaville)C?te d?IvoireDjiboutiEgyptEquatorial GuineaEritreaeSwatini(Swaziland)EthiopiaGabonGambiaGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLe

71、sothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRwandaS?o Tom?&Pr?ncipeSenegalSeychellesSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSouth SudanSudanTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaWestern Sahara*ZambiaZimbabweNorth AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaTOTALMWNaturalgasLiquidfuelsNatural g

72、as&liquid fuelsCoalNuclearHydro-electricitySolarWindGeothermal Biomass/biogasOtherTOTAL20,0625002026753465721,1791543361,026183,6061,47945810,00624197294,59850,92414,74765,6711,73259551431,2902950281337423601,67557721,84351,04010310673,548121,54

73、31054,40914,37718,78621,1345,7731,47823425121412,3767832,17914359,8853391601004,2707091285,059647502,7887614810,8907344596673687119,5752,87562217013,278186371,225109158756,329123,9411,5122015,9801,1775492,8782,294108,013119,015227,028465951479064331,54224301,6595,6091801,329487

74、1201201,04338,6594,92443,5832163,3873732827192,3571948792,832127603,8173241,58036682873881,7572,1833471,938933523,6001,922,3971,0814,85931,02635,88636635911,5145-43-56-20-3686585301277-9-110-2,32,5562,8605,415*under UN mandate indicates less than 1MW or zero Source:A

75、frican Energy Live Data African Energy 2020(www.africa-)600613,76712043,0523001,2103,76745,34349,110151,800151,8001,830372702911,388732433630,1182462072,6562,9255,581AFRICAN ENERGY ATLAS 2020/2021 APRIL 2020 7Overviewprocurement programmes in So

76、uth Africa are not counted byLive Data until procurement is under way.It is clear from page 10 that 2019 was a breakthrough year forsolar power.Nearly 2GW was added while in previous yearscapacity additions have never exceeded 1GW.The market is alsoincreasingly diverse,with large numbers of small pr

77、ojects andincreasing numbers of small and medium projects.Wind continues to make slower progress.The number of largeprojects continues to increase but there are fewer medium andsmaller projects.This represents a problem for the wind industry,as it is more reliant on a few large markets and it has st

78、ruggledto add new revenue streams in the way that solar has.Inparticular,it has so far been unable to take advantage of theburgeoning commercial and industrial market.2051222324250Pipeline205122232425Pipeline2051222324250Pipeline135,0

79、00130,000125,000120,000115,000110,000105,000100,00095,00090,00085,00080,00075,00070,00065,00060,00055,00050,00045,00040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,0005,00010,00040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,0005,00010,00040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,0005,00010,0002051222324250Pipelin

80、e90,00085,00080,00075,00070,00065,00060,00055,00050,00045,00040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,0005,00010,0002051222324250Pipeline025,00020,00015,0005,00010,0002051222324250Pipeline05,00010,0000MWMWMWMWMWMWNorth AfricaWest AfricaCentralAfricaEastAfricaSouth

81、ernAfricaNorth AfricaWest AfricaCentral AfricaEast AfricaSouthern AfricaOtherBiomass/biogasGeothermalWindSolarHydroelectricityNuclearCoalNatural gas&liquid fuelsLiquid fuelsNatural gasNET ANNUAL CAPACITY ADDITIONS BY REGION,201025Source for all charts:African Energy Live Data African Energy 2020(www

82、.africa-)NORTH AFRICA ON-GRID ENERGY MIX,201025WEST AFRICA ON-GRID ENERGY MIX,201025SOUTHERN AFRICA ON-GRID ENERGY MIX,201025EAST AFRICA ON-GRID ENERGY MIX,201025CENTRAL AFRICA ON-GRID ENERGY MIX,2010258 AFRICAN ENERGY ATLAS 2020/2021 APRIL 2020African Energy Live Data North Africa remains by some w

83、ay the largest market inAfrica.This is illustrated by the to-scale graphics on this page.The region has seen a burst of activity in Egypt,adding largevolumes of gas,solar and wind power to the grid.Morocco andTunisia are also becoming major markets for solar powerdevelopment,with wind programmes als

84、o significant.Central Africa continues to lag and the current pipelinesuggests it will fall even further behind.Political instability,poor governance and weakeconomies prevent large-scaleinvestment as well as deterringoff-grid providers.New interconnectionscombined with pragmaticleadership and growi

85、ngeconomies could see EastAfrica emerge as asignificant market.TheNorth AfricaWest AfricaCentralAfricaEastAfricaSouthernAfrica Section2010N W C E SMW2011N W C E S2012N W C E S2013N W C E S2014N W C E S2015N W C E S2016N W C E S2017N W C E S2018N W C E S2019N W C E S2020N W C E S2021N W C E S2022N W

86、C E S2023N W C E S2024N W C E S2025N W C E SPipeline15,00014,00013,00012,00011,00010,0009,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,00001,000MW15,00014,00013,00012,00011,00010,0009,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,00001,000RentalState ownedPrivately ownedNorth AfricaWest AfricaCentral AfricaEas

87、t AfricaSouthern AfricaNWCESSource for both charts:African Energy Live Data African Energy 2020(www.africa-)NET ANNUAL CAPACITY ADDITIONS BY OWNERSHIP TYPE AND REGION(on-grid and distributed),20281920,00015,0005,00010,0000MWRentalState ownedPrivately ownedNET ANNUAL CAPACITY AD

88、DITIONSBY OWNERSHIP TYPE(on-grid and distributed),201019AFRICAN ENERGY ATLAS 2020/2021 APRIL 2020 9Regional viewregion is already emerging as a driver of innovative policy,andregulation and investment into renewable energy is increasingrapidly.It is a hub and incubator for the off-grid industry as w

89、ellas having established a track record of utility and market reform.Southern Africa is also set to see substantial investment inrenewable energy.Solar,wind and hydropower in particular arelikely to increase substantially while coal capacity is set todecrease as existing plants in South Africa are d

90、ecommissioned.West Africa has been hampered by poor policy makingresulting in inefficient grids unable to support major industrialdemand.The region is a major target for commercial andindustrial developers supporting industry and mines using dieselto manage sporadic grid supply.The region is in dang

91、er ofmissing out on low cost renewable energy which could offsetthe cost of expensive thermal power.Greater regionalinterconnectivity may help in this regard,particularly byintroducing policy and regulatory competition.The graphic below illustrates the slow and patchy growth ofprivate sector investm

92、ent on the continent over the decade.State-owned investment has been much more significant andalso grew more rapidly until 2019.There are significant time lags in power sector developmentgiven the average development time on the continent,which isbelieved to be around seven years.A long period of re

93、form isstarting to pay off,with 2019 showing more private than publicinvestment in generation in both East and West Africa.The pipeline shows that the private sector will become theleading source of investment into generation from 2022.Thiscreates new challenges,such as the need to move away fromgov

94、ernment guarantees through market and utility reform.Focus in the past has been on creating independent powerproducer and public-private partnership frameworks andcredible procurement programmes.Moving forwards,governments will be pushed to create financially viable andefficient markets capable of g

95、enerating and growing therevenues needed to support private investment.Identify power plants and analyse markets African Energy Live Data is a live-updated online databasefeaturing more than 6,500 power plants and projects across Africa.Identify owners,developers,offtakers,financiers and their portf

96、olioof projects and find opportunities for investment and sales Support strategic planning by analysing trends by country from2010 alongside key economic&demographic statisticsContact Alex Wark for a demonstration.E:salesafrica-www.africa- AFRICAN ENERGY ATLAS 2020/2021 APRIL 2020African Energy Live

97、 Data20807060504030202000192,00095857565554535251551,9001,8001,7001,6001,5001,4001,3001,2001,1001,0009008007006005004003002001000MW20000200051551,2001,1001,00090080070060050040030

98、02001000MW20000MW+20 50MW10 20MW5 10MWLess than 5MW50MW+20 50MW5 20MWLess than 5MW200MW+100 200MW50 100MWLess than 50MW200MW+100 200MW50 100MWLess than 50MWSource for all charts:African Energy Live Data African Energy 2020(www.africa-)NUMBER OF SOLAR PROJECTS ADDED B

99、Y SIZE,201019SOLAR CAPACITY ADDITIONS BY PROJECT SIZE,201019NUMBER OF WIND PROJECTS ADDED BY SIZE,201019WIND CAPACITY ADDITIONS BY PROJECT SIZE,201019 Solar and wind continue to make inroads into African marketsas they become the cheapest source of energy and a usefulcomplement to grids overly relia

100、nt on seasonal hydropower orcostly thermal power.2019 saw a step change in solar investment,where the capacityadded more than doubled to nearly 2GW in one year,around20%of all new capacity.Prior to the coronavirus,similarcapacity additions were expected in the years 2020-2022.Medium-large capacity s

101、olar projects remain the most valuablemarket,boosted in 2019 by the commissioning of many 50MWprojects at Benban in Egypt.The 50MW+market was the mostvaluable 2013-2018,led by procurement in South Africa.Small and micro solar projects less than 20MW is a growingmarket representing more than 250MW in

102、 2019.This is anunderestimate due to the lack of data on projects smaller than1MW.10-20MW is an emerging market with significantpotential in Africa due to the possibility of locating theseprojects close to demand centres without major grid upgradesand lower impact on government balance sheets.Projec

103、ts in the5-10MW range have been constrained by high developmentcosts relative to returns.There has been very strong growth in the 0-5MW solarmarket,which is dominated by commercial and industrial(C&I)plants.Several private equity funds have made C&I their firstinvestment as it offers a potentially q

104、uicker and better diversifiedroute to project portfolios with total installed capacitycomparable to a utility-scale plant.Section56 days60 days429 days196 days1,058 days334 days353 days296 days1,058 days334 days353 days424 days1,053 days223 days701515951 days286 days914 days163 days508 days128 days1

105、64 days476 days333 days372 days1109508 days832329602 days437 days610 days98211 days664 days225 days149 days422 days718 days192 days708 days97552333 days19612 days88808 days121 days225 days765 daysPreferred bidder to PPAPPA to financial closeFinancial close to start of constructionStart of constructi

106、on to operationPreferred bidder to PPAPPA to financial closeFinancial close to start of constructionStart of construction to operationAVERAGE SOLAR DEVELOPMENT TIMELINES BY PROCUREMENT PROGRAMMEMorocco Noor Ouarzazate I CSPMorocco Noor Ouarzazate II&III CSPEgypt Solar FiT Round I PVEgypt Solar FiT R

107、ound II PVZambia Scaling Solar Round I PVSouth Africa REIPPP1 PVSouth Africa REIPPP2 PVSouth Africa REIPPP3 PVSouth Africa REIPPP4 PV(expected)AVERAGE WIND DEVELOPMENT TIMELINES BY PROCUREMENT PROGRAMMESouth Africa REIPPP1South Africa REIPPP2South Africa REIPPP3South Africa REIPPP4(expected)AFRICA W

108、IND ON-GRID AVERAGEAFRICA SOLAR ON-GRID AVERAGESource for both charts:African Energy Live Data African Energy 2020(www.africa-)AFRICAN ENERGY ATLAS 2020/2021 APRIL 2020 11Solar and wind The wind power market has become more concentrated,failing to achieve consistent growth.While large-scale projects

109、offering very low tariffs have become more prevalent in moredeveloped markets,investment into smaller and medium sizedprojects has diminished.The result is an over-reliance on a few large markets.Countrieswith smaller grids have been unable to access the potentiallyvery low cost technology.This is o

110、ften due to poor windresources but in many countries because of difficult logistics anda lack of institutional capacity and policy.The graphic above compares the timelines of several highprofile procurement programmes.One of the aims of theprocurement programmes was to speed up delivery of projects,

111、as well as reduce the cost of power.Although prices fell over rounds in nearly all cases partly asa result of the falling cost of technology and partly greaterexperience and more developed supply chains in-country timelines have more often lengthened.In South Africa,despite procurement of new capaci

112、tybecoming more urgent,the time from selection as a preferredbidder to operation has increased in every round,from 951 daysin round 1 for solar to 2,031 days in round 4.For wind itincreased from 983 days to 2,164 days.This time does notinclude the preparation of projects for bidding,an intensiveproc

113、ess in South Africa.In South Africa,solar projects selected in rounds 3 and 4 tooklonger to move from the signing of key agreements tocommercial operations than the African average.This is true ofmost of the Egyptian solar feed-in tariff projects.The growing inefficiency of the South African process

114、 isillustrated by the fact that the large and more complexconcentrated solar projects procured in Morocco were deliveredwithin a comparable timeframe,despite construction delays.For wind,however,it is clear that procurement programmeshave substantially reduced development time from signing keyagreem

115、ents to commercial operation.In fact,in all but round 4in South Africa the entire process from selection as a preferredbidder to operation was quicker than the average time fromagreement signing to commercial operation on the continent.African connections:Roads,railways,ports,airportsCAPEVERDEPRAIAA

116、NGOLAS O U T HA F RIC AMADAGASCARBOTSWANAZIMBABWEZAMBI AESWATINILESOTHOMALAWITANZANIAKENYAUGANDARWANDABURUNDIGABONNAMIBIADJIBOUTIERITREAS U D A NN IG E RCENTRALAFRICAN REPUBLICEQUAT.GUINEAS?O TOM?&PRNCIPEREP.OFCONGOCAMEROONM A L IA L G E RIAL IBYAEGYPTTUNISIAMOROCCO Western Sahara(under UNmandate)MA

117、URITANIAMAURITIUSR?union(Fr.)SENEGALTHE GAMBIAGUINEA-BISSAUGUINEASIERRA LEONELIBERIAC?TED?IVOIRETOGOBENINMOZAMBIQUESOMALIACOMOROSMayotte(Fr.)Annob?n(Eq.Guinea)BURKINAFASOGHANA(BRAZZAVILLE)N IG E RIASEYCHELLESETH IO PIADEMOCRATICREPUBLICOF CONGOSOUTH SUDANC H A DJohannesburgDurbanPort ElizabethBloemf

118、onteinBeiraCabinda(Ang.)MwanzaDar es SalaamMombasaNampulaNdolaBulawayoLubumbashiKisanganiMbuji-MayiBenguelaDoualaBerberaPortSudanElFasherLagosKanoPort HarcourtAbidjanAlexandriaLuxorAswanBenghaziCasablancaMarrakechOranFrancistownWalvisBayEastLondonTangierAgadezWauTimbuktuNouadhibouEl AyounSfaxAtarReg

119、ganeTamanrassetConstantineTobrukN?maSt-LouisKayesKankanGaoKumasiBoboDioulassoIbadanArlitZinderEnuguMaiduguriSarhSuezPort SaidSafagaMinyaWadi HalfaAtbaraKostiAssabMassawaKassalaKismayoMtwaraPointe-NoireMatadiKuitoNamibeTsumebLivingstoneBlantyreToliaraMahajangaToamasinaInhambaneKimberleyCape TownArush

120、aMossel BayPietermaritzburgL?deritzTaolanaroPembaMonguHuamboLuenaKanangaMbandakaPort-GentilBukavuSongeaMbeyaTangaMoyaleLokichokioHargeisaBosasoGaroweDireDawaWadMedaniGuluIsiroButaBuniaKound?raAbuSimbelBordjMokhtarOujdaF?sBiskraAnnabaTozeurNyalaZou?ratKadunaParakou Sekondi-TakoradiFrancevilleIleboKal

121、emieSolweziKaminaKinduBumbaKigomaKasamaAntsirabeTeteNacalaMalanjeMenongueLobitoUpingtonLamuMusinaVryburgLubangoJorf LasfarGharda?aBizerteSabhaGhatIn Am?nasNz?r?kor?SokotoGedarefOu?ssoIkelaLuauSaurimoKuvangoMaunSpringbokOudtshoornMananjaryFianarantsoaErmeloMbalaGonderWeldiyaMekeleRichards BaySaldanha

122、TemaBeja?aDamiettaGizaMalakalAgadirHurghadaSharmel-SheikhMarsaAlamK?nitraBagamoyoAb?ch?Al-KufraAntsirananaTangerMedEntebbeTenkeAwashKisumuNational boundaryPrincipal roadMain railwayBusiest airports,Feb 2020(20+scheduled passengerflights,daily average)Source:L.TanaL.TanganyikaLakeVictoriaLake Malawi(

123、L.Nyasa)L.KivuL.AlbertL.VoltaL.ChadL.NasserL.TurkanaSaharaLibyanDesertAtlasMountainsNigerBenueNileBlueNileU?l?CongoKasa?ZambeziVaalOrangeSinaiZanzibar I.CapeAgulhasTROPIC OF CAPRICORNTROPIC OF CANCERCape ofGood HopePemba I.Mafia I.Cap BonJerbaCapriviStripCopper-beltWhiteNileL.MweruL.EdwardChariOmoJu

124、baLimpopoCairoTripoliAlgiersDakarKanoN?DjamenaWad MedaniGonderDjibouti VilleMombasaNairobiLagosLobitoCapeTownBeira6678899EQUATORT?n?r?Mah?PraslinKilimanjaroSalPRETORIAMAPUTOWINDHOEKGABORONEHARAREANTANANARIVOLUSAKALUANDAKINSHASABRAZZAVILLENAIROBILILONGWELIBREVILLEYAOUND?BANGUIKAMPALAMOGADI

125、SHUADDISABABAASMARAKHARTOUMN?DJAMENAABUJANIAMEYACCRALOM?PORTO-NOVOYAMOUSSOUKROMONROVIAFREETOWNCONAKRYBISSAUDAKARBAMAKOCAIRONOUAKCHOTTTRIPOLITUNISALGIERSRABATDJIBOUTIVILLEMORONIPORT-LOUISMBABANEMASERUBANJULMALABOS?O TOM?BUJUMBURADODOMAJUBAOUAGADOUGOUKIGALIVICTORIA African Energy 2020(www.africa-)TRAN

126、S-SAHARANTRADE ROUTESAncient trade routes thatcrossed the Sahara Deserthave been adapted forformal and informal trade,including a variety ofsmuggling networks.TRANSGUINEAN RAILWAYSProposed rail links taking minerals to a planneddeep-water port SE of Conakry.BENGUELA RAILWAYLinking the port of Lobito

127、 with the DRC,it providedan export route for Zambian and Congolese copperduring the mid-20th century.Heavily damagedduring the Angolan civil war(1975-2002),a new linehas been built with Chinese help.The Lobito-Luausection opened in 2015 and a full service fromTenke began in 2018.TRANS-AFRICAN HIGHWA

128、YS(TAH)An international programme to develop a transcontinental road network.NORTH-SOUTH ROUTES:TAH-2:Algiers-Agadez-Lagos(Trans-Sahara)TAH-3:Tripoli-N?Djamena-Kinshasa-Windhoek-Cape TownTAH-4:Cairo-Khartoum-Addis Ababa-Nairobi-Lusaka-Gaborone-Cape TownEAST-WEST ROUTES:TAH-1:Cairo-Tripoli-Algiers-Ra

129、bat-DakarTAH-5:Dakar-Bamako-N?DjamenaTAH-6:N?Djamena-DjiboutiTAH-7:Dakar-Freetown-Abidjan-LagosTAH-8:Lagos-Yaound?-Bangui-Kisangani-Nairobi-MombasaTAH-9:Lobito-Lubumbashi-Harare-BeiraWALVIS BAY CORRIDORSA network of transport corridorslinking Namibia?s largest port with:1.SOUTH AFRICA:TRANS-ORANJE,t

130、o Pretoria/Johannesburg via Upington,with a link to L?deritz;TRANS-KALAHARI,to Pretoria/Johannesburg via Botswana.A railwayto export Botswanan coal is proposed,to run alongside the highway.2.ZAMBIA:TRANS-CAPRIVI,a strong competitor to the Tazararailway for Zambian and DRC copperexports.3.ANGOLA:TRAN

131、S-CUNENE.MOROCCOHIGH-SPEED RAILAfrica?s first high-speed railservice,Al-Boraq,linkingCasablanca with Tangieropened in 2019.ADDIS ABABA AIRPORTBole International Airport has been expandedto triple its capacity.A new terminal opened inJanuary 2019 can accommodate up to 22mpassengers/yr.NEW EGYPTIAN AI

132、RPORTSThe construction of five new airports was announced in 2017:SphinxInternational Airport in Giza,New Capital Airport,Bredwell Airport in Sinai,South Red Sea Airport and Ras Sidr Airport.Japan is funding a newpassenger terminal at Alexandria?s Borg El Arab International Airport.DAKAR?S NEW AIRPO

133、RTBlaise Diagne International Airportopened in December 2017.Costing$575m,it has a capacity of 10m passengers/yr.KHARTOUM NEW INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTKNIA began construction in 2019;it will have acapacity of approximately 7.5m passengers/yr.DJIBOUTIChinese-funded projects includethree ports,two airport

134、s and awater pipeline from Ethiopia,aswell as a Chinese military base.SINGLE AFRICAN AIR TRANSPORT MARKETSAATM is a flagship project of the AU?s Agenda 2063 and aims to create asingle unified air transport market in Africa,liberalise civil aviation and actas an impetus to the continent?s economic in

135、tegration agenda.Officiallylaunched in January 2018 with 23 countries as starting participants.ETHIOPIA-DJIBOUTI RAILWAYAfrica?s second electric railway beganoperations in 2016,linking Addis Ababa withDjibouti?s new Doraleh Multipurpose Port.LEKKI DEEP SEA PORTConstruction has begun on developing ne

136、w container and berth facilities in LagosFree Trade Zone by Singapore-based Tolaram Group?s Lekki Port LFTZ Enterprise.ALGERIA?S EAST-WEST HIGHWAY(A1)A six-lane 1,200km road running from theMoroccan border to the Tunisian border builtby Chinese(west and central sections)andJapanese(east)consortia.EG

137、YPT?S NEW CAPITAL CITYA 700 km2 development 45km east of Cairo with an internationalairport is planned to accommodate 5m and become Egypt?s newadministrative capital;developed by the government and the military.NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDORA Comesa initiative comprising a road and rail network of over10,000k

138、m,linking eight countries in Southern and Central Africa()with the aim of strengthening cross-border trade and tourism.TAZARA RAILWAYBuilt with Chinese assistance in the 1970s to link Zambia withDar es Salaam,avoiding Zimbabwe and South Africa.EAST AFRICANINFRASTRUCTUREProjects include the EastAfric

139、an Railways Master Planand Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport(LAPSSET)Corridor.TANZANIAN PORTSDar es Salaam port is beingexpanded,while a$10bnnew port and free trade zoneis planned at Bagamoyo.MOZAMBIQUE?S CORRIDORSNACALA CORRIDOR:Linking Malawi to the sea and the newNacala-a-Velha port,the ou

140、tlet for Moatize coal exports.BEIRA CORRIDOR:An important gateway for landlockedcountries to the west of Mozambique.MAPUTO CORRIDOR:Linking South Africa?s industrialheartland with the deepwater ports of Maputo and Matola.A port at Techobanine,south of Maputo,has been proposedto export coal from Bots

141、wana.NIGERIA RAILAbuja-Kaduna railway opened in 2016,part of a CCECC contract to equipthe Lagos-Kano route with modern standard gauge rail.The same companyis building the Lagos-Calabar highway.Future Port Harcourt-Maiduguri andLagos-Calabar rail lines are being supported by Russia.ETHIOPIAN RAILWAYS

142、A standard gauge railway running north fromAwash to Weldiya and Mekele is being built.KENYAN RAILStandard gaugerailway fromMombasa toSuswa viaNairobi andEmbakasi inlandcontainer depot,with proposedextensions toKisumu and theUgandan border.BENIN BACKBONE PROJECTIncludes a new S?m?-Krak?airport to ser

143、ve southern Nigeria and Benin,rehabilitation of the Cotonou-Parakou railway and construction of aninternational standard gauge railway linking Parakou with Niamey.KRIBI PORT&INDUSTRIAL COMPLEXChina Harbour Engineering Company are building a new deep-sea port and associatedinfrastructure on the south

144、ern Cameroonian coast,opening the region?s minerals,cottonand other commodities to the world?s markets.A railway linking Kribi to southernCameroon?s Mbalam iron ore deposit is also being developed.12 AFRICAN ENERGY ATLAS 2020/2021 APRIL 2020Climate,population,income,fossil fuels,power generationANGO

145、LASOUTHAFRICAMADAGASCARBOTSWANAZIMBABWEZAMBIAESWATINILESOTHOMALAWITANZANIAKENYAUGANDARWANDABURUNDIDEM.REP.OFCONGOGABONNAMIBIADJIBOUTIERITREASUDANCHADNIGERCENTRALAFRICANREP.EQ.GUINEAS?O TOM?&PRNCIPECAMEROONMALIALGERIALIBYAEGYPTTUNISIAMOROCCO Western Sahara (under UN mandate)MAURITANIACAPEVERDEMAURITI

146、USR?union(Fr.)SENEGALTHE GAMBIAGUINEA-BISSAUGUINEASIERRA LEONELIBERIAC?TED?IVOIRETO.BE.MOZAMBIQUESOMALIACOMOROSMayotte(Fr.)BURKINAFASOGH.(BRAZZAVILLE)NIGERIASEYCHELLESETHIOPIAREP.OFCONGOSOUTHSUDAN00300350500550600DOUALA CAMEROONElevation:9mJ F M A M J J A S O N DmmC0BAMAKO MALI

147、Elevation:381m0300J F M A M J J A S O N DmmC0ENTEBBE UGANDAElevation:1,155m0150200250J F M A M J J A S O N DmmC0SABHA LIBYAElevation:440m100J F M A M J J A S O N DmmC0KHARTOUM SUDANElevation:379m100J F M A M J J A S O N DmmC0J F M A M J J A S O

148、N DCAPE TOWN S AFRICAElevation:13m0150mmCSIRTEBASINGHADAMESBASINTINDOUFBASINTADLA BASINKAROO BASINof which:prospective areaOuagadougouYaound?DoualaN?DjamenaLubumbashiMbuji-MayiKisanganiAddisAbabaAccraKumasiConakryNairobiMonroviaTripoliTunisAntananarivoBamakoCasablancaRabatF?sMaputoKdOnAbu

149、jaPHAAbaBBenin CityIbIbadanKd KadunaLLom?NNnewiOn OnitshaPH Port HarcourtUUyoBKigaliDakarMogadishuDurbanPort ElizabethPretoriaKampalaLusakaHarareKanangaSabhaBamakoKhartoumDoualaEntebbeCape TownAlgiersBrazzavilleMombasaMarrakechNiameyKanoIbFreetownCape TownAbomeyPointe-NoireBukavuLilongweNouakchottTa

150、ngierMatolaAUNEkurhuleniLMajor power generation centres(existing and proposed)Thermal power(coal,oil,gas)HydroelectricityNuclearWindSolarGeothermalGDP per capita,2018Urban agglomerations:estimated populations,2020US$6,001+$3,001$6,000$1,501$3,000$701$1,500$0$700No data5.0 million+(named in bold,and

151、with figures)1.0 4.9 million(named)0.5 1.0 millionSahelian zoneLow rainfall but greatseasonal variation,high temperaturesTropical zone withdry seasonsSeasonal variation intemperature and rainfall,long dry seasonsHumid tropical zoneHigh rainfall andtemperatures,short dryseasonEquatorial zoneHigh temp

152、eratures all year,high rainfall,short dryseason,if at allMediterranean zoneHot dry summers,mild wet wintersDesert zoneVery high daytimetemperatures,very littleprecipitationMajor oil/gasareas andrecentsignificantdiscoveriesMajorcoal/lignitedepositsMajor shalegas basinsAve.daily max.temp.Ave.daily min

153、.temp.Ave.precipitationAfourerAbdelmoumenAswanDal,KajbarMeroweKoebergElDabaZafaranaTekezeTana-Beles,Tis AbayMelka WakenaAwash,KokaGilgel Gibe,Halale-WerabesaTana RiverBujagali,Owen FallsRuziziManantaliKal?ta,SouapitiKossouAkosomboJebba,KainjiMambillaLower Sanaga RiverGrandPoubaraIngaZongoUpperLualab

154、aRuacanaKafue,KaribaCahora Bassa,Mphanda NkuwaIngulaLesotho HighlandsGariep,VanderkloofRift ValleyOlkariaDarnahRas Gharib-Zeit BaySidi DaoudMisratah,TarhunaHassiR?MelA?n Beni MatharTangier,T?touanSebkhate TahAkhfennirMombasaDar es SalaamKidatu,Kihansi,Stiegler?s GorgeKwanzaRiverWalvis BayL?deritzOra

155、njemundHwangeSere(Koekenaap)Cape TownCoega(Port Elizabeth)East LondonMossel BayUpingtonMorupuleMatimba,MedupiGauteng&Mpumalanga provincesAlgiersTemaAbidjanKureimatCairo,Nile Delta,Port SaidAl-Khums,TripoliSirteBenghaziOuarzazatePort LouisIkopa RiverManiaRiverEssaouiraBoujdour,Foum Al-OuedMohamm?diaJ

156、orf LasfarOranEgbinNiger DeltaKhartoumPort Sudan,ArkyiaiBizerteBatoka Gorge,Devil?s GorgeMaputoTubatseMoatizeChicamba,MavuziLake Turkana,BubisaMkumburaAshegodaKom OmboKougaCapeVerdeGrand RenaissanceVictoria NileTurkwelDakarTunisAllal El Fassi,Al-WahdaHassiMessaoud Annaba,SkikdaTuNurDagash,ShereikBar

157、o,GebaAdama,Debre BirhanMmamabulaSoyo(ALNG)Boou?CholletSoundaPointe-NoireNoun RiverLuandaKisanganiNzemaDe Aar,PrieskaPofadderCairo20.9mLagos14.4mJohannesburg5.8mLuanda8.3mJeradaHassi R?MelHassi MessaoudGulf ofGab?sBerkineBasinSaharafieldsGhadamesBasinSirteBasinNileDeltaGulf ofSuezFoxtrotJubilee,TEND

158、obaFula(coalbedmethane)WesternDesertMurzuqBasinRio delRey BasinMugladBasinMelutBasinLakeAlbertBasinSongo SongoMnazi BayPande,TemaneCabindaLower CongoBasinAlbaOkumeOgoou?DeltaEtam?HwangeMmamabula,WaterbergKwaZulu-NatalMoltenoBredasdorp BasinKuduIbhubesiLuenaMorupuleAnambraSpringbokFlatsMaambaSoutpans

159、bergErmelo,WitbankHighveldOffshoreRuvumaBasinMuiBasinSankofaMoatizeRuhuhuSongwe-KiwiraLuangwaIlliziBasinEmeraude,LoangoElBormaSengwaAgademNiger Delta(Akata-Agbada)Offshore S TanzaniaNiassaProvinceKinshasa 14.3mKhartoum5.8mDar es Salaam6.7mS LokicharBasinKwanza BasinGreater Tortue AhmeyimZohrAwash Va

160、lleyAboadzeKathu,JasperUpingtonEl HamraweinShiroroSangomarAbidjan5.2mAlexandria5.3mLekkiGreater BirallahYakaar-TerangaMSGBCBasin African Energy 2020(www.africa-)FOSSIL FUELSAfrica 8.6%Rest of world91.4%OILProductionin 2018:Sources:AfDB,AUC&ECA,African Statistical Yearbook 2019;United Nations,Departm

161、ent of Economic and Social Affairs,Population Division(2018),World UrbanizationProspects:The 2018 RevisionPOWER GENERATIONPOPULATION AND INCOMECLIMATE ZONESSources:UNEP(2008),Africa:Atlas of OurChanging Environment;Africa 6.1%Rest of world93.9%GASAfrica 4.0%Rest of world96.0%COALCountry populations,

162、mid-2019(millions)Nigeria201.051%urbanEthiopia 110.1Egypt 101.2Democratic Rep.of Congo 86.7South Africa 58.1Tanzania 60.9Kenya 52.2Algeria 42.7Sudan 42.5Uganda 45.7Morocco 36.6Ghana 30.1Mozambique 31.4Madagascar 27.0Cameroon 25.3Angola 31.8C?te d?Ivoire 25.5Rest of Africa21Africa total:1,318.3mNiger

163、 21.4Burkina Faso 20.34345356728247335466637573851571730AFRICAN ENERGY ATLAS 2020/2021 APRIL 2020 13FinanceAdvisers and financiers hungry for above-average rates ofreturn and new business opportunities have talked upAfricas potential to emerge as a major frontier for privateinfrastructure financing.

164、Their support for a far greater numberof IPPs and other privately financed infrastructure,longer-termdebt financing operations,mergers and acquisitions and othertransactions holds undoubted promise for cash-strapped butpotentially fast-growing economies.In parallel,China has takena lead in developin

165、g sometimes controversial financing structuresthat have seen huge investments in infrastructure becoming areality as roads are built and electricity generated.Others see the potential for providing billions of dollars more,as the World Bank Group,African Development Bank(AfDB),European Union,Germany

166、,France and other bilateral donorshave all placed infrastructure at the centre of their developmentpolicies.AfDB vice-president for private sector,infrastructureand industrialisation Pierre Guislain has estimated Africasinfrastructure needs at$130bn-$170bn/yr,with a financing gapof$68bn-$108bn.He ar

167、gued that,while“this may soundinsurmountable,it also presents an opportunity to fosterinnovative financial solutions and partnerships that have thepotential to unlock funding”.This huge challenge will be amplified by the Covid-19pandemic,which was blighting economies worldwide as Atlas2020/2021 was

168、published.The early signs were not promising,with investors likely to seek comfort in established marketsrather than emerging frontiers for investment.The global health crisis came after a period when private equityand other cutting-edge investors had worked hard to unlockAfricas infrastructure pote

169、ntial,seeking to tap new interest frompension funds,sovereign wealth funds,equities market and otherprivate investors,which have so far been largely absent fromdeals on the continent.Long underdeveloped sectors such aspower generation in sub-Saharan Africa have seen an uptick inprivate support,but h

170、ave a majority of economies seen a bigfinancial boom in line with the continents ambitions?Thebrutal answer was no,even before the Covid-19 pandemicundermined so many assumptions.Local and internationalprivate financing flows for critical sectors like water andsanitation,electricity distribution and

171、 transmission remainelusive in all but a few economies.The problems are familiar:persistent bottlenecks due tobureaucracy,over-complex and costly financial structures andinsolvent local counterparts continue to hold up otherwisecommercially viable schemes.IPPs,merchant power structuresand investment

172、 in transmission companies are the norm in LatinAmerica and Asia,but in Africa,the number of IPPs whilegrowing remains highly constrained,and successful privateelectricity distribution companies like Umeme in Uganda arevery much an exception.Africa is looking at African solutions to raise finance vi

173、a localbanks,pension funds and other emerging investor classes.Initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area havepotential to create a vibrant new trading bloc in regions thattransact a pitifully small percentage of their commerce withtheir neighbours.It is not surprising that West Afr

174、ica,which hasdone more than most to promote open borders and,via theCFA franc,a common currency is the most integrated.Whereborders remain closed as between Algeria and Morocco since1994 all sides lose.Local content African resources have global importance,but investors still findit hard to place th

175、eir money in these industries,despite countriespromoting local content initiatives that give a minimumpercentage of equity in oil fields to local companies.Nigeriahas developed a well-established network of indigenouscompanies operating across its oil industry.New upstreamlicences in Republic of Con

176、go require 25%local content,usually around 10%for state-owned Societe Nationale desPetroles du Congo and the rest for local private companies;theymay lack the capital necessary to finance their share and couldcarry reputational risks from beneficial ownerships involvingpolitically exposed persons.So

177、uth Africa needs huge uplift for a population that,nearly 30years on,is still waiting for its post-apartheid expectations ofsocial equity and economic advancement to be met.The blackeconomic empowerment industry has become associated withcrony capitalist ploys to enrich only a few.During Jacob Zumas

178、failed presidency,the once mighty state utility Eskom waspotentially fatally damaged by economic mismanagement andstate capture.Eventually even the Renewable Energy IPPProcurement Programme widely seen as a model for solar andwind procurement on the continent was endangered.Efforts to strengthen bot

179、h national public sector structures andlocal business practices are essential if Africa is to attractanywhere near the necessary levels of financing to support14 AFRICAN ENERGY ATLAS 2020/2021 APRIL 2020Financiers see huge potential butbottlenecks frustrate as debt rises againHuge figures are bandie

180、d about for infrastructure costs and for the funds to support the carbon transition.Butwhile financiers have money for well-structured projects,a potential revolution in energy investment is held backby lack of capacity,moribund markets and governance shortfalls,while heavily indebted resource-depen

181、denteconomies remain as vulnerable as ever to volatile global markets.Covid-19 will accentuate these weaknessesSectionsustainable growth.Among initiatives,the African LegalSupport Facility in Abidjan is working to strengthen publicsector entities such as the many all but insolvent public utilities,w

182、hich make very weak counterparts for private sector investors,and governments that in negotiations are often confronted bybatteries of expensive international lawyers.The Chinese model of infrastructure financing has producedsome remarkable results,even if critics point to problemsassociated with th

183、e unexpectedly high cost of financing linkedto asset-backed deals,the employment of Chinese personnelover local workers,and major operations and maintenanceshortfalls.Its 85-15 model involves China putting up 85%of aprojects cost in supposedly soft loans backed by Chineseinsurers.Often linked to exp

184、orts of oil or minerals to feed hugeChinese demand,these structures have allowed cash-strappedeconomies like Guinea to build infrastructure that mightotherwise prove impossible.Debt distress This model,too,is showing strains as the Chinese state andcorporates look to place projects on a more commerc

185、ial basis.As payments arrears have built up across sub-Saharan Africa,AFRICAN ENERGY ATLAS 2020/2021 APRIL 2020 15InfrastructureConsortiumfor Africa(ICA)$9,180m(38%)West Africa$14.13bn(34%)excludingSouth AfricaNorth Africa$7.69bn(18%)Central Africa$3.51bn(8%)East Africa$3.39bn(8%)SouthernAfrica$4.62

186、bn(11%)South Africa$7.88bn(19%)Other$0.74bn(2%)African nationalgovernments$7,486m(31%)China$477m(2%)Other bilaterals/multilaterals$4,428m(18%)Private$2,485m(10%)InfrastructureConsortiumfor Africa(ICA)$10,154m(23%)Africannationalgovernments$7,690m(18%)China$18,330m(42%)Other bilaterals/multilaterals$

187、1,386m(3%)Private$6,282m(14%)ENERGY SECTOR FINANCINGBY SOURCE,2014ENERGY SECTOR FINANCINGBY SOURCE,2018TOTAL ENERGY SECTOR FINANCING BY REGION,2018(total:$43.84bn)African Energy 2020(www.africa-)Source:ICA,Annual Report 2018ICA members:African Development Bank(AfDB),Development Bank of Southern Afri

188、ca(DBSA),European Commission(EC),European Investment Bank(EIB),World Bank Group,G7 countries(Canada,France,Germany,Italy,Japan,UK,USA),Russian Federation,South Africa.Republic of Congos mid-2019 debt restructuring set aprecedent by involving the Chinese government in reschedulingan unsustainable deb

189、t.Nearly a quarter of Kenyas total externaldebt is now owed to China much of it linked to thecontroversial standard gauge railway scheme on terms thathave proved more onerous than expected at the time loans werepublicly signed.What is certain is that interest rates are higherand maturities shorter o

190、n Chinese debt than the terms offeredby the World Bank and AfDB.The International Monetary Fund has expressed increasingconcern that levels of debt distress are again rising across thecontinent.Chinese loans are most often cited as a cause,butAfrican treasuries have built up a range of debt from sov

191、ereignbonds to domestic paper.Earlier in the decade,a return toborrowing via bond markets was seen as a signal of renewedstrength;some borrowers,including Ghana and Gabon,are evennow still talking about new Eurobonds.But the mood of debtmarkets is generally depressed,despite the temptations ofglobal

192、ly low interest rates.Another oil price crash has the potential to cause havoc inresources producers.The 2016 deal between Opec and non-Opec countries helped to stabilise prices and improveproducers finances.However,this unravelled dramatically asSaudi Arabia and Russia fell out in March 2020 over h

193、ow toaccommodate US shale production and their own ambitions todominate the market.In a bid to arrest a dramatic price collapseand stabilise global markets,producers were obliged to agree thebiggest oil production cuts in history.While apparently good news for oil importers,lower prices alsohave ram

194、ifications for other natural resources producers,givenuncertain global growth and declining commodity demand.Like junior and independent oil companies,publicly listedmining companies face a difficult outlook.Many of these playersanyway face longer-term problems in a world looking to tackleclimate ch

195、ange by transiting out of carbon.While manyproducer governments are still in denial,their prized oil andcoal reserves may never be developed(and certainly not on theterms some still demand).Many will be left with stranded assets.7(highest risk)654321(lowest risk:no African countries)POLITICAL RISKRA

196、TINGS,MARCH2020Medium/long-termpolitical risk ratings forAfrican countries?exporttransactions underthe OECD consensusSource: African Energy 2020(www.africa-)Regional groupingsG5 SahelMano River Union(MRU)Gulf of GuineaCommission(GCC)/Commission du Golfede Guin?e(CGG)Commission ofCentral African Fore

197、sts/Commission des For?tsd?Afrique Centrale(Comifac)Eastern AfricaStandby Force(EASF)Southern AfricanCustoms Union(Sacu)Liptako-GourmaAuthority(LGA)/Autorit?du Liptako-Gourma(ALG)International Conferenceon the Great Lakes Region(ICGLR)/Conf?renceInternationale sur la R?giondes Grands Lacs(CIRGL)Econ

198、omic Community of the Great Lakes Countries(ECGLC)/Communaut?conomique des Pays des Grands Lacs(CEPGL)Controls Sinelac(Soci?t?International d?Electricit?des paysdes Grands Lacs)Niger Basin Authority(NBA)/Autorit?duBassin du Niger(ABN)Lake TanganyikaAuthority(LTA)/Autorit?du LacTanganyika(ALT)Tripart

199、ite Permanent TechnicalCommission(TPTC)Permanent Okavango River BasinWater Commission(Okacom)Organisation for theDevelopment of theSenegal River(OMVS)Lake Victoria Basin Commission(LVBC)Orange-Senqu River Commission(Orasecom)Lake Chad BasinCommission(LCBC)/Commission du bassindu Lac Tchad(CBLT)Congo

200、-Oubangui-SanghaBasin Commission/Commission Internationaledu Bassin Congo-Oubangui-Sangha(CICOS)Nile Basin Initiative(NBI)Nile River Basin CooperativeFramework Agreement(CFA)Volta Basin Authority(VBA)Gambia RiverBasin DevelopmentOrganization(OMVG)Limpopo Watercourse Commission(Limcom)Zambezi Waterco

201、urse Commission(Zamcom)African Union(AU)Community of Sahel-Saharan States(CEN-SAD)/Communaut?des EtatsSah?lo-SahariensEast AfricanCommunity(EAC)A B CArab Maghreb Union(AMU)/Union duMaghreb Arabe(UMA)Southern AfricanDevelopment Community(SADC)Intergovernmental Authorityon Development(Igad)AEconomic C

202、ommunityof West African States(Ecowas)/Communaut?Economique des Etatsde l?Afrique de l?Ouest(CEDEAO)Common Market for Easternand Southern Africa(Comesa)Economic Community ofCentral African States(ECCAS)/Communaut?Economique desEtats de l?Afrique Centrale(CEEAC)AA B DA EFor Africa?s monetary grouping

203、s,see page 17;for regional power pools,see page 21 African Energy 2020(www.africa-)THE AFRICAN UNION AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC COMMUNITIES(RECs)RECOGNISED BY THE AUOTHER ECONOMIC,SECURITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL ORGANISATIONSRIVER AND LAKE ORGANISATIONSSADCapplicantEcowasapplicantEcowasassociatememberLCBCobse

204、rverstatusLCBC non-participantNBIobserverCo-opted membersStatus of regional integration in each REC:A Free trade area establishedB Customs unionC Single marketD All countries in the REC have applied the protocol on freedom of movementE Economic and monetary unionSource:AfDB,AUC&ECA,African Statistic

205、al Yearbook 201916 AFRICAN ENERGY ATLAS 2020/2021 APRIL 2020Economic AfricaTHEGAMBIA Western Sahara (under UNmandate)COMOROSERITREAETHIOPIAGUINEALIBERIAS?O TOM?&PRNCIPEBURUNDIR?union(Fr.)Mayotte(Fr.)MOROCCOMALI GUINEA-BISSAUBURKINAFASOREP.OFCONGO(BRAZZAVILLE)Cabinda(Ang.)C?TED?IVOIRESOUTHSUDANTUNISI

206、AEGYPTGHANANIGERIAUGANDATANZANIANAMIBIABOTSWANAMOZAMBIQUEESWATININIGERSENEGALBENINSOUTHAFRICACAPEVERDESIERRALEONEDJIBOUTIZIMBABWEMALAWIKENYAZAMBIAANGOLALESOTHOSOMALIASEYCHELLESLIBYARWANDAALGERIASUDANCHADGABONEQ.GUINEACENTRALAFR.REP.DEM.REP.OF CONGOMAURITANIAMADAGASCARMAURITIUSTOGOCAMEROONDakar:Banqu

207、e Centrale des Etats del?Afrique de l?Ouest(BCEAO)(UEMOA?s central bank)Association of AfricanCentral Banks(AACB)/Association des BanquesCentrales Africaines(ABCA)Abidjan:African Development Bank(AfDB)Bourse R?gionale desValeurs Mobili?res(BRVM)Quatre Bornes:HQ of Indian OceanCommission(IOC)/Commiss

208、ion del?Oc?an Indien(COI)Addis Ababa:AU CommissionPretoria:African Tax Administration Forum(ATAF)Development Bank of Southern Africa(DBSA)Abuja:HQ of Economic Communityof West African States(Ecowas)/Communaut?Economique des Etatsde l?Afrique de l?Ouest(CEDEAO)Arusha:HQ of East AfricanCommunity(EAC)L

209、usaka:HQ of Common Market for Easternand Southern Africa(Comesa)Rabat:HQ of Arab MaghrebUnion(AMU)/Union du MaghrebArabe(UMA)Gaborone:HQ of Southern AfricanDevelopment Community(SADC)Windhoek:HQ of SouthernAfrican CustomsUnion(Sacu)Cairo:HQ of League of Arab States/Arab LeagueAfrican Export-Import B

210、ank(Afreximbank)Libreville:HQ of EconomicCommunity ofCentral AfricanStates(ECCAS)/Communaut?Economique des?tats de l?AfriqueCentrale(CEEAC)Djibouti Ville:HQ of IntergovernmentalAuthority on Development(Igad)Nairobi:AfricanTrade Insurance AgencyKhartoum:Arab Bank forEconomicDevelopmentin Africa(BADEA

211、)Kampala:East African Development BankJohannesburg:Pan-African InfrastructureDevelopment Fund(PAIDF)Midrand:Pan-African Parliament(PAP)Nepad(New Partnership forAfrica?s Development)Planningand Coordinating AgencyBujumbura:PTA(PreferentialTrade Area)Bank(the financial armof Comesa)Lom?:West AfricanDe

212、velopment Bank(WADB)/BanqueOuest Africaine deD?veloppement(BOAD)Ecowas Bank forInvestment andDevelopment(EBID)/Banque d?Investissementet de D?veloppement dela CEDEAO(BIDC)HQ of EcobankYaound?:Banque des?tats de l?Afrique Centrale(BEAC)(Cemac?s central bank)Lagos:HQ of AFCHQ of United Bank for Africa

213、(UBA)Casablanca:HQ of Africa50Infrastructure FundDouala:Bourse R?gionale desValeurs Mobili?resd?Afrique Centrale(BVMAC)Sub-SaharanAfrica(SSA)MiddleEast&NorthAfrica(MENA)Cemac+UEMOA=CFA Franc ZoneFrance+CFA Franc Zone+Comoros=Franc ZoneCemac isknown in Englishas the Economicand MonetaryCommunity ofCe

214、ntral AfricaUEMOA is known inEnglish as the WestAfrican Economic andMonetary Union(WAEMU)NAMENAMEMembers of Africa Finance Corporation(AFC)Stock exchangesMembers of Bourse R?gionale desValeurs Mobili?res(BRVM)Members of Bourse R?gionale desValeurs Mobili?res d?AfriqueCentrale(BVMAC)Members of the Fr

215、anc ZoneMembers of the West AfricanMonetary Zone(WAMZ)Members of theCommon Monetary Area(CMA)/MultilateralMonetary Area(MMA)NAMECHADS.SUDANNIGERIACAMEROONREP.OF CONGOEQUAT.GUINEAGABONANGOLANAME?Sub-Saharan African oil exporters?(IMF category where net oil exports makeup at least 30%of total exports)

216、Division betweenMiddle East&NorthAfrica(MENA)andSub-Saharan Africa:World BankInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)AfricanDevelopmentBank(AfDB)regionsAfrica ContinentalFree Trade Area(AfCFTA):Ratifying partiesSigned but notratifiedCFA(Communaut?financi?re d?Afrique)Franc ZoneUnion Economique et Mon?taireOue

217、st Africaine(UEMOA)Currency:eco(from mid-2020)Communaut?Economique etMon?tairede l?AfriqueCentrale(Cemac)North AfricaWestAfricaCentralAfricaEastAfricaSouthernAfricaCurrency:CentralAfrican CFA francSOVEREIGN RATINGSCountryMoody?s FitchAngolaB3BBotswanaA2CameroonB2BCongo,D.R.Caa1Congo,Rep.Caa2CCCC?te

218、d?IvoireBa3B+EgyptB2B+EthiopiaB1BGabonCaa1CCCGhanaB3BKenyaB2B+MauritiusBaa1MoroccoBa1BBBMozambiqueCaa3CCCNamibiaBa1BBNigeriaB2BRwandaB2B+SenegalBa3South AfricaBa1BBTanzaniaB1TunisiaB2B+UgandaB2B+ZambiaCaCCCLong-term issuer ratings,April 2020Source:ratings agencies African Energy 2020(www.africa-)ALL

219、 AFRICA AND REGIONS:201820192020SELECTED INDICATORS2017est.proj.proj.Real GDP3.63.54.04.1North Africa4.94.34.44.3West Africa2.73.33.63.6Central Africa1.12.23.63.5East Africa5.95.75.96.1Southern Africa1.61.22.22.8Consumer price inflation*12.610.99.28.1North Africa14.212.89.27.4West Africa13.09.59.79.

220、1Central Africa9.37.34.74.1East Africa14.014.512.511.4Southern Africa9.37.47.16.6Overall fiscal balance*5.84.54.03.7North Africa9.66.04.84.1West Africa5.04.23.93.9Central Africa3.01.41.00.3East Africa3.84.13.73.5Southern Africa4.54.14.24.1External current account*3.63.02.83.0North Africa7.45.75.05.0

221、West Africa0.20.40.10.2Central Africa4.32.01.01.3East Africa5.04.94.64.6Southern Africa2.12.93.03.3Fiscal balance is government income minus spending*annual average.*including grants.Source:AfDB,OECD&UNDP,African Economic Outlook 2019Annual%growth%of GDPSUB-SAHARAN AFRICA:20192020SELECTED INDICATORS

222、20172018proj.proj.Real GDP3.03.23.23.6 Oil exporting countries0.51.52.12.5excluding Nigeria0.20.21.52.4 Oil importing countries4.54.33.94.3excluding South Africa6.16.05.45.6 Middle-income countries2.02.32.52.8 Low-income countries*7.06.76.16.4 Countries in fragile situations3.94.74.25.2Consumer pric

223、e inflation*10.98.58.48.0Fiscal balance(incl.grants)4.63.74.34.3External current account2.32.73.63.8Reserves(months of imports)5.04.94.74.6*excluding low-income countries in fragile situations.*annual average.Source:IMF,Regional Economic Outlook,Sub-Saharan Africa,Oct 2019Annual%growth%ofGDPAFRICAN

224、ENERGY ATLAS 2020/2021 APRIL 2020 17Economic indicators by country2002020304022010 2Gross domestic product Constant prices(real GDP),percentage change on previous yearConsumer price inflation Percentage change on previous yearCurrent account balance Percentage of GDP

225、2002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 121416

226、04002022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010

227、22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 220020203040

228、22010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304012141

229、61820222010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 266.7124.736.478.454.454.263.527.636.853.064.019.120.6ALGERIAGDP:$681.4bnPopulation:43.4mNORTH OF THE SAHARASUB-SAHARAN AFRICAEGYPTGDP:$1,391.3bnPopulation:99.2mLIBYAGDP:$61.6

230、bnPopulation:6.6mMOROCCOGDP:$328.7bnPopulation:35.6mTUNISIAGDP:$149.2bnPopulation:11.8mANGOLAGDP:$203.4bnPopulation:30.1mBENINGDP:$40.7bnPopulation:11.8mBOTSWANAGDP:$44.1bnPopulation:2.4mBURKINA FASOGDP:$42.2bnPopulation:20.3mBURUNDIGDP:$8.4bnPopulation:11.5mCAMEROONGDP:$100.9bnPopulation:25.5mCAPE

231、VERDEGDP:$4.3bnPopulation:0.56mCENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLICGDP:$4.3bnPop:5.2mCHADGDP:$31.8bnPopulation:12.8mCOMOROSGDP:$2.4bnPopulation:0.87mDEMOCRATIC REP.OF CONGOGDP:$83.1bnPop:97.9mREP.OF CONGO(Brazzaville)GDP:$32.8bnPopulation:4.6mC?TE D?IVOIREGDP:$117.1bnPopulation:26.3mDJIBOUTIGDP:$6.0bnPopulation

232、:1.1mEQUATORIAL GUINEAGDP:$29.0bnPopulation:1.4mERITREAGDP:$6.5bnPopulation:6.2mETHIOPIAGDP:$12.4bnPopulation:1.1mGDP:$240.2bnPopulation:95.6mGABONGDP:$39.6bnPopulation:2.1mTHE GAMBIAGDP:$6.4bnPopulation:2.3mGHANAGDP:$209.8bnPopulation:30.2mGUINEAGDP:$33.3bnPopulation:13.6mGDP figures are based on p

233、urchasing-power-parity(PPP)valuation ofthe country?s GDP,measured in current international dollars.GDP and population figures are for 2019.Some data are IMF estimates,including most data for 2018 and beyond.Source:Iinternational Monetary Fund,World Economic Outlook Database,October 2019ESWATINI18 AF

234、RICAN ENERGY ATLAS 2020/2021 APRIL 2020Section2002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010

235、22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 12141

236、604002022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010

237、 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 2200202030401214161820

238、222010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 22002020304022010 252.4161.870.320.565.02015:52.82016:379.82017:187.92018:83.5No data prior to:2

239、012(GDP,inflation)2011(current account)*Source:AfDB Statistical Yearbook 2019No data prior to 2013No inflation data,no GDP data prior to 201239.52018:63.32019:50.42020:62.12021:67.22022:67.649.72019:58.02020:66.72021:62.92022:75.6African Energy 2020(www.africa-)GUINEA-BISSAUGDP:$3.6bnPopulation:1.8m

240、KENYAGDP:$191.3bnPopulation:49.4mLESOTHOGDP:$7.4bnPopulation:2.0mLIBERIAGDP:$6.5bnPopulation:4.6mMADAGASCARGDP:$46.0bnPopulation:27.1mMALAWIGDP:$25.2bnPopulation:20.3mMALIGDP:$47.2bnPopulation:19.1mMAURITANIAGDP:$19.8bnPopulation:4.1mMAURITIUSGDP:$31.7bnPopulation:1.3mMOZAMBIQUEGDP:$40.6bnPopulation

241、:31.2mNAMIBIAGDP:$27.7bnPopulation:2.5mNIGERGDP:$25.8bnPopulation:23.3mNIGERIAGDP:$1,216.8bnPopulation:201.0mRWANDAGDP:$30.3bnPopulation:12.4mGDP:$0.75bnPopulation:0.22mSENEGALGDP:$64.6bnPopulation:16.8mSEYCHELLESGDP:$3.1bnPopulation:0.10mSIERRA LEONEGDP:$13.1bnPopulation:7.7mSOMALIAGDP:$12.7bnPopul

242、ation:15.6m*SOUTH AFRICAGDP:$809.0bnPopulation:58.8mSOUTH SUDANGDP:$21.4bnPop:13.4mSUDANGDP:$176.0bnPopulation:43.2mTANZANIAGDP:$191.6bnPopulation:56.3mTOGOGDP:$15.0bnPopulation:8.2mUGANDAGDP:$104.8bnPopulation:39.8mZAMBIAGDP:$76.0bnPopulation:18.3mZIMBABWEGDP:$40.3bnPopulation:14.9mSouth Sudan 7.9%

243、Rwanda 7.8%C?te d?Ivoire 7.5%Ghana 7.5%Ethiopia 7.4%TOP ANDBOTTOM FIVECOUNTRIES,2019Real GDPgrowth%changeAngola 0.3%Sudan 2.6%Equatorial Guinea 4.6%Zimbabwe 7.1%Libya 19.1%Consumerpriceinflation%changeCurrentaccountbalance%of GDPZimbabwe 161.8%Sudan 50.4%South Sudan 24.5%Liberia 22.2%Angola 17.2%Mal

244、i 0.17%Benin 0.28%Niger 1.35%Guinea-Bissau 2.58%Eritrea 27.6%Eritrea 11.3%Republic of Congo 6.8%eSwatini 2.5%South Sudan 2.3%Angola 0.9%Seychelles 16.7%Niger 20.0%Guinea 20.7%Liberia 21.2%Mozambique 58.0%S?O TOM?&PRNCIPEAFRICAN ENERGY ATLAS 2020/2021 APRIL 2020 19Key trends:Reserves,production,consu

245、mption&exportsAlgeriaLibyaNigeriaSpain 16.6Italy 16.3Italy 4.3France 4.0,Spain 1.5India 4.0China 1.5Japan 2.1Pakistan 1.3Thailand 1.3Spain 4.1France 3.6Zimbabwe502South Africa 9,893Botswana?s coal reservesare estimated to be approx.200bn tonnes(Sources:Botswana Ministry ofMinerals,Energy&WaterResour

246、ces;US Chamberof Commerce)Significant coaldeposits in Teteprovince,andpotentially a similaramount in NiassaMexico 1.4Turkey 2.2Egypt 3.3Algeria 12.2Angola 8.4Rep.of Congo(Brazzaville)1.6Equatorial Guinea 1.1Gabon 2.0Libya 48.4Nigeria37.5Sudan 1.5Chad 1.5SouthSudan3.5Uganda1.7AngolaIndia 2.2NorthAfri

247、caWestAfricaEast&SouthernAfricaCanadaCentral&SouthAmericaAustralasiaChinaEuropeUnitedStatesOther Asia-Pacific(incl.Japan&Singapore)IndiaMiddle EastTurkey 4.7Egypt 2.1Algeria 4.3Libya 1.4Nigeria 5.313.78.26.5Technicallyrecoverableshale gasresourcesRecent discoveriesoffshore Tanzaniaand Mozambiquetota

248、l at least 6 tcm,according toindustry estimatesPipelineLNG0204060800026028030032034036038040042044046048050002040608006080002040608004060806080040608802000040608000040608101214161

249、820000406080000406080000406081012141618Rest of AfricaChadSouth SudanSudanGabonRep.of CongoEquat.GuineaEgyptLibyaAlgeriaAngolaNigeriaRest of AfricaLibyaEgyptNigeriaAlgeriaRest of AfricaSouth AfricaRest of AfricaEgyptAlgeriaSouth AfricaRest of AfricaSouth AfricaRest of AfricaEgyp

250、tAlgeriaSouth AfricaMorocco1.116.82.563.158.39.516.18.24.471.927.611.34.02.11.21.41.22.07.9PROVED OIL RESERVES,end-2018Billion barrelsTotal:125.3bn bbls(7.2%of world reserves)Countries with proved reserves ofmore than 1bn bbls:African Energy 2020(www.africa-)Sources:BP Statistical Review of World En

251、ergy,June 2019;US Energy Information Administration(2011),World Shale Gas Resources:An Initial AssessmentPROVED NATURAL GAS RESERVES,end-2018 Trillion cubic metresTotal:14.4 tcm(7.3%of world reserves)Countries with proved reserves ofmore than 1 tcm:PROVED COAL RESERVES,end-2018Million tonnesTotal:13

252、,217m tonnes(1.2%of world reserves)Countries with proved reserves ofmore than 500m tonnes:HYDROELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION2000 total:17.0m tonnes oil equivalent(2.8%of world)2018 total:30.1m toe(3.2%of world)NUCLEAR POWER CONSUMPTION2000 total:2.9m toe(0.5%of world)2018 total:2.5m toe(0.4%of world)OI

253、L PRODUCTION Million tonnes2000 total:371.6m tonnes/7,789 thousandbarrels/day(10.4%of world production)2018 total:388.7m tonnes/8,193 thousandbarrels/day(8.7%of world production)GAS PRODUCTION Million tonnes oil equivalent2000 total:116.2m toe/135.1 billion cubic metres(5.6%of world production)2018

254、total:203.4m toe/236.6 billion cubic metres(6.1%of world production)COAL PRODUCTION Million tonnes oil equivalent2000 total:130.5m toe(5.7%of world production)2018 total:155.8m toe(4.0%of world production)COAL CONSUMPTION Million tonnes oil equivalent2000 total:82.8m toe(3.5%of world consumption)201

255、8 total:101.4m toe(2.7%of world consumption)GAS CONSUMPTION Million tonnes oil equivalent2000 total:47.9m toe/55.7 billion cubic metres(2.3%of world consumption)2018 total:129.0m toe/150.0 billion cubic metres(3.9%of world consumption)OIL CONSUMPTION Million tonnes oil equivalent2000 total:122.2m to

256、e/2,465 thousandbarrels/day(3.2%of world consumption)2018 total:191.3m tonnes/3,959 thousandbarrels/day(4.1%of world consumption)GAS FROM AFRICA,2018 Billion cubic metresMovements of more than 1 bcm:CRUDE OIL FROM AFRICA,2018 Million tonnesMovements of more than 1m tonnes:20 AFRICAN ENERGY ATLAS 202

257、0/2021 APRIL 2020PowerHarare:HQ of SAPPBrazzaville:HQ of CAPP/PEACAddis Ababa:HQ of EAPPCotonou:HQ ofWAPP/EEEOAAbidjan:Association of Power Utilities of Africa(APUA)/Association des Soci?t?s d?Electricit?d?Afrique(ASEA)Algiers:African EnergyCommission(Afrec)/Commission Africainede l?Energie(CAE)Come

258、lecHQrotatesbetweenmemberstatesMaghreb ElectricityCommittee/Comit?Maghr?bin del?Electricit?(Comelec)Southern AfricanPower Pool(SAPP)Central AfricanPower Pool(CAPP)/Pool Energ?tiquede l?AfriqueCentrale(PEAC)West African PowerPool(WAPP)/Syst?me d?Echangesd?Energie ElectriqueOuest Africain(EEEOA)Easter

259、n Africa PowerPool(EAPP)BotswanaPowerCorporation(BPC)Soci?t?Nationaled?Electricit?(Snel)Lesotho Electricity Company(LEC)Electricidade de Mo?ambique(EDM),Hidroel?ctrica de Cahora Bassa(HCB)Egenco,EscomNamPowerEskomEswatini Electricity Company(EEC)Tanzania Electric SupplyCompany(Tanesco)ZescoZimbabweE

260、lectricity SupplyAuthority(Zesa)Soci?t?Nationale del?Electricit?et du Gaz(Sonelgaz)Office Nationalde l?Electricit?etde l?Eau Potable(ONEE)Soci?t?Tunisienne del?Electricit?et du Gaz(Steg)General ElectricityCompany of Libya(Gecol)Egyptian ElectricityHolding Company(EEHC),Egyptian ElectricityTransmissi

261、onCompany(EETC)Soci?t?Mauritanienned?Electricit?(Somelec)SonabelCEB:Communaut?Electrique du B?ninCEET:Compagnie Energie Electrique du TogoCIE:Compagnie Ivoirienne d?Electricit?CI-Energies:Soci?t?des Energies de C?te d?IvoireE2C:Energie Electrique du CongoEAGB:Empresa Publica de Electricidade e Agua

262、de Guin?-BissauECG:Electricity Company of GhanaEDG:Electricit?de Guin?eEDSA:Electricity Distribution and Supply AuthorityEgenco:Electricity Generation CompanyEGTC:Electricity Generation and Transmission CompanyEMAE:Empresa de Agua e ElectricidadeENDE:Empresa Nacional de Distribui?o de ElectricidadeE

263、scom:Electricity Supply Corporation of MalawiGamek:Gabinete de Aproveitamento do M?dio KwanzaGRIDCo:Ghana Grid CompanyLEC:Liberia Electricity CorporationNawec:National Water and Electricity Company of GambiaNEDCo:Northern Electricity Distribution CompanyNBET:Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading PLCProd

264、el:Empresa P?blica de Produ?o de ElectricidadeSBEE:Soci?t?B?ninoise d?Energie ElectriqueSEEG:Soci?t?d?Electricit?et d?Eaux du GabonSegesa:Sociedad de Electricidad de Guinea EcuatorialSenelec:Soci?t?Nationale d?Electricit?du S?n?galSonabel:Soci?t?Nationale d?Electricit?du BurkinaTCN:Transmission Comp

265、any of NigeriaVRA:Volta River AuthorityElectraCI-Energies,CIENawecEDGEAGBLECEnergiedu Mali(EDM)ECG,GRIDCo,NEDCo&VRACEETSBEE&CEB NBET,TCNSenelecEDSA,EGTCSoci?t?Nig?rienned?Electricit?(Nigelec)RegidesoEthiopian ElectricPower(EEP)Kenyan Electricity Generating Company(Kengen),Kenya Electricity Transmiss

266、ion Company(Ketraco),Kenya PowerRwanda Energy Group(REG)MDEC,SEDC,Setco,SHGC,STPG UEGCL,UETCL,UmemeJiro sy Rano Malagasy(Jirama)CentralElectricityBoard(CEB)PublicUtilitiesCorporation(PUC)Madji na Mwendje ya Komor(MA-MWE),Electricit?d?Anjouan(EDA)Nugal ElectricalCo-operative(NEC)Electricit?deDjibouti

267、(EDD)Eritrean ElectricCorporation(EEC)South SudanElectricityCorporation(SSEC)Soci?t?Nationaled?Electricit?(SNE)E2CEnergieCentrafricaine(Enerca)EneoCameroonSEEGEMAESegesa ENDE,Gamek,Prodel,RedeNacional deTransporte deElectricidade(RNT)MDEC:Merowe Dam Electricity CompanyRegideso:R?gie de Production et

268、 de Distributiond?Eau et d?Electricit?SEDC:Sudanese Electricity Distribution CompanySHGC:Sudanese Hydro Power Generation CompanySetco:Sudanese Electricity Transmission CompanySTPG:Sudanese Thermal Power Generation CompanyUEGCL:Uganda Electricity Generation Company Ltd.UETCL:Uganda Electricity Transm

269、ission Company Ltd.PotentialmembersNATIONAL POWERCOMPANIESREGIONAL POWER POOLSWithdrew fromEAPP Feb 2016AFRICAN ENERGY ATLAS 2020/2021 APRIL 2020 2122 AFRICAN ENERGY ATLAS 2020/2021 APRIL 2020TrendsAnumber of energy transitions have begun to move frommarket buzz to on-the-ground activity at a notabl

270、e scale.The changes are throwing up new challenges thatindicate the next transitions on the continent,as governmentslook for ways around payment guarantees and find that the onlysolutions are sustainable utilities or more open markets,whilework on regional trading is starting to make this more possi

271、ble.Africas transitions cannot be seen in isolation.The change of focusfrom generation to transmission and distribution comes as severalcountries find that they no longer have a shortage of supply butof demand.Weak grids,high losses,low access and consumption,and expensive power continue to suppress

272、 markets.Ghana claimsto have excess supply,but in December 2019,off-grid generatorGenser Energy raised$366m to build a large gas pipeline networkto supply its expanding captive power plants.These plants supplypower to mines that are connected to the grid but whose qualityof supply is so poor they ar

273、e looking elsewhere.Kenya faces asimilar situation where supply appears to have outstripped demandat the same time as per capita electricity consumption is belowthe African average and off-grid solar home systems are installedbeneath Kenya Powers distribution lines.One solution has been to invest in

274、 transmission and distribution.Kenyas last-mile connection programme has increased accesswhile a transmission line to the west of the country currentlysupplied by Uganda is expected to end the supply surplus.Private investment in transmission is being seriously explored inthe country by both the Wor

275、ld Bank Groups InternationalFinance Corporation and the Africa50 infrastructure fund.Atthe same time,interconnections are being planned or built acrossEast Africa that will increase the potential market and helpcountries balance demand and supply without suppressinginvestment or demand or drasticall

276、y increasing the cost of power.Solar progressSolar power is proving an increasingly useful technology for Africa.Prices have come down to the extent that solar can be used todisplace most fossil fuels,reducing Africas foreign exchangeexposure.Solar systems can be small and can be located close todem

277、and or where the grid is best able to evacuate the power.Requiring limited logistics,solar is very suitable for small andpoorer countries.It can be used off-grid or hybridised withthermal plants to reduce costs or hydropower plants to helpmanage water levels.There are also abundant funding options a

278、ndnumerous developers,while the industry is helped by a very lowconstruction failure rate and a track record of generally limitedconstruction delays and cost over-runs.This has made solar poweran easy decision for African governments.Africas multiple energy transitions startto bear fruitThe many ene

279、rgy transitions slowly taking place in Africa have begun to make an impact on the ground.As wellas the move to lower carbon generation,these include transitions to private financing of the power sector,to afocus on transmission and distribution,and to a mix of grid and isolated systemsNatural gas 65

280、,671MW 28.9%Liquid fuels 18,786MW8.3%Natural gas&liquid fuels 43,583MW19.2%Coal 49,110MW 21.6%Nuclear 1,815MW0.8%Hydroelectricity 35,886MW15.8%Solar 5,415MW 2.4%Wind 5,581MW 2.5%Geothermal 831MW 0.4%Biomass/biogas 130MW 0.06%Other 220MW 0.1%Natural gas 27,330MW 19.8%Liquid fuels10,714MW 7.8%Natural

281、gas&liquid fuels28,766MW 20.9%Coal 41,898MW 30.4%Nuclear 1,815MW1.3%Hydroelectricity 25,877MW18.8%Solar 28MW 0.02%Wind 973MW 0.7%Geothermal 207MW 0.2%Biomass/biogas 9MW 0.007%Other 104MW 0.1%Source:African Energy Live Data African Energy 2020(www.africa-)AFRICA?S ON-GRID ENERGY MIX,Q1 2020Total:227,

282、028MWSource:African Energy Live Data African Energy 2020(www.africa-)AFRICA?S ON-GRID ENERGY MIX,2010Total:137,721MWAn increasing number of intermittent generation plants as wellas weak grids have resulted in the first utility-scale batteryprojects being contemplated.Morocco has made major strideswi

283、th recent procurements of large solar and battery systems.South Africas Eskom is considering a major programme andpotential developers showed strong interest in storage in a recentrequest for information looking for short-term options tomitigate the countrys power crisis.Senegal is investigating ala

284、rge battery project and recently brought online its first utility-scale renewable power and battery plant.Countries likeNamibia are looking at battery systems and there are alsoproposals in Kenya.A number of renewable energy-plus-batteryprojects are being considered in smaller countries wherenetwork

285、s are unable to handle intermittent energy.SectionMarket movesCheap renewables have also started to provide a spur for thenascent development of markets.In Namibia,the modifiedsingle buyer model is largely based on solar power,which ischeap enough to make it attractive to purchase as an alternativet

286、o the grid.The decision to develop solar and wind projects asIPPs in South Africa has combined with the financial crisis atEskom to push the government towards sector unbundling.The need to account for the system cost of renewables whichresult in other plants being used less frequently and therefore

287、becoming more expensive is pushing countries like Namibiaand Kenya to introduce more clarity into their tariffs and powerpurchase agreements about the various costs involved insupplying power.This,in turn,is creating the potential for newmarkets for power grid services.The transition to private sect

288、or development alongside thegreater use of renewable power is having a clear impact H12019 saw the lowest additions of new generation capacity innearly a decade.This is partly the result of insufficient griddemand in key markets.Another factor is that,althoughgovernment policy has switched to privat

289、ely financedgeneration,weak utility finances and limited policyimplementation mean that,while new state utility-built capacityhas declined in many countries,private investment has notincreased sufficiently to plug the gap.This is a marked change from previous years.For the first timemore generation

290、capacity was added by the private sector thanby state utilities(1.5GW v 1.2GW)in H1 2019,according toAfrican Energy Live Data.In the whole of 2018,14.2GW wasadded by state utilities compared with 3.1GW by the privatesector.The difference was even more dramatic in 2017,withonly 1.4GW added by the pri

291、vate sector but 11.6GW by thestate.The shift to solar was clear as more solar capacity was addedthan any other technology in H1 2019,with 917MW.The increase in private capacity coupled with the weakness ofutilities and increasing levels of government debt has resulted inseveral larger governments qu

292、estioning support given to IPPs.Most notable are larger countries like Ghana,Kenya,Nigeria andAFRICAN ENERGY ATLAS 2020/2021 APRIL 2020 231002010%80604020020001720182019OtherBiomass/biogasGeothermalWindSolarHydroelectricityNuclearCoalNat.gas&liquid fuelsLiquid fuelsNatural gas

293、African Energy 2020(www.africa-)ON-GRID GENERATION CAPACITY BY FUEL,201019Source:African Energy Live Data100%ofpopulation8060402002000162017North AfricaWest AfricaCentral AfricaEast AfricaSouthern Africa African Energy 2020(www.africa-)ELECTRICITY ACCESS BY REGION,201017Sources

294、:SEforALL,Tracking SDG7:The EnergyProgress Report 2019;UN Population DivisionSouth Africa.All four are looking for alternatives to governmentguarantees or support agreements.Kenya is again looking to diluteits letter of support which the government provides instead of apayment guarantee in light of

295、the collapse of the Kinangopproject,when the government called in its letter of supportfollowing delays caused by land issues.Ghana has lashed out atprivate developers and is attempting to renegotiate tariffs andchange thermal capacity payments from take-or-pay to take-and-pay.South Africa is giving

296、 strong hints that it will not providegovernment guarantees for future IPP procurement and NigeriasTreasury has been reluctant to provide further guarantees since theAzura-Edo gas power project.Azura-Edo was Nigerias first fullyprivatised IPP to reach financial close in December 2015,but noIPPs have

297、 closed since then.Meanwhile,Ghana,Nigeria and South Africa are all strugglingwith the fallout of failed or inadequate reform policies,whichmakes ending government guarantees difficult.This wasepitomised in 2019 by the failed concessioning of the ElectricityCompany of Ghana,the catastrophic collapse

298、 of Eskom,and threatby the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission to canceldistribution concessions as a result of failure to make minimumpayments to the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trader.Both Ghana andSouth Africa are likely to require support from internationaldonors to resolve the financial cr

299、ises facing their utilities.Other countries have emerged as more forward thinking.Zambia has engaged Africa GreenCo as a creditworthyintermediary offtaker between struggling utility Zesco and thecountrys IPPs.GreenCo will be able to supply industrialofftakers and ultimately the Southern Africa Power

300、 Pool in theevent of non-payment by Zesco,as well as having recourse toguarantee schemes from KfW and the African Trade InsuranceAgency.Namibia is looking to the domestic and then regionalmarket to reduce sector risk.NamPower is moving towards arole as generator of last resort and transmission and m

301、arketoperator with the establishment of the modified single buyermodel.Cte dIvoires cash waterfall mechanism,which sees theprivate utility operator CI-Energies,IPPs and gas suppliers paidbefore other expenses,continues to pay dividends after majorexpansions to the Ciprel and Azito gas power plants r

302、eachedfinancial close in early 2020.North AfricaThe shift from gas to renewables and the associatedcommercial challenges will directly affect both NorthAfricas wider energy sector and economic performancein general.Moroccos 2009 National Energy Strategy set a targetof 42%renewable power by 2020.Alth

303、ough this will not be met,it is close.According to African Energy Live Datas current snapshotof the project pipeline,just over 37%of power will be generatedby renewables by year-end,rising to just under 40%in 2021.By 2022,the target will be substantially exceeded.If mootedchanges go ahead to the 13-

304、09 procurement law,under whichmost private sector wind and solar projects are being developed,a significant number of plants that currently do not have expectedcommissioning dates could improve the picture dramatically.Ahead of the COP22 climate change meeting in Marrakech in2016,Morocco added a fur

305、ther target of reaching 52%ofrenewables capacity by 2030.This will require an accelerationin renewables commissioning to keep pace with a new wave ofgas-fired plants linked to long-term import plans and thedevelopment of domestic production.The Jorf Lasfar,DharDoum and Al-Wahda gas-fired plants(each

306、 expected to have1.2GW installed capacity),were originally planned for 2021 butalong with a regasification terminal have been postponed untilthe end of the decade.Similarly,no gas-fired power plants are expected to startconstruction in the rest of the region for the next several years.In Egypt,Cairo

307、 Electricity Production Companys 650MWCairo West extension project is expected to start production in2020.After that,no large-scale gas-fired plant is envisaged inthe current five-year plan to 2022.While some additional plantsare on the drawing board for the following five years,it is farfrom certai

308、n they will be built.By 2028,the Dabaa nuclear plantis expected to have added 4.8GW of baseload capacity.Additionally,there is no way of reliably divining how muchrenewable capacity may have been commissioned by that point.Part of the difficulty for Egyptian power sector planners is thatby end-2019

309、the system had achieved a reserve capacity of 83%,meaning there is no need to build more.The authorities areencouraging private sector offers for renewables projects buthave insisted on very low power purchase agreement(PPA)prices.The subtext is that developers and financers have to takewhat they ar

310、e offered.The involvement of a large number of counterparties in themassive Benban solar park in southern Egypt,which was fullycommissioned in 2019,has created a diverse ecosystem of projectsponsors,consultants,financers,engineers and equipment24 AFRICAN ENERGY ATLAS 2020/2021 APRIL 2020North Africa

311、 anticipates shift from gas torenewablesThe evolution of electric power generation in North Africa has reached a tipping point,with Morocco close tomeeting its first major renewable energy target and the end of a five-year trend of massive gas-fired powerprocurement across the regionsuppliers,all ke

312、en to embark on new schemes.Whether they willor not partly depends on how strictly the ministry sticks to itschallenging price requirements but also on other factors,such ashow rapidly inefficient thermal plants are decommissioned.Another huge strategic decision due in 2020 is the privatisationof on

313、e or more of the three 4.8GW gas-fired plants built bySiemens.Any new private sector owners will have to sign freshPPAs with Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company.Thegovernment may want a high sale price or a low PPA price.Thisdecision may affect what commercial terms apply elsewhere.Meanwhile,i

314、n Algeria,all of the 8GW of gas-fired power plantsthat Sonelgaz ordered from GE in 2013 were all still at variousstages of construction in early 2020,with most of themexpected to be completed by 2021,although more delays arepossible.After that,the development of further gas-firedgeneration is limite

315、d to the 1.3GW Umashe plant,whichHyundai Engineering&Construction is due to deliver in 2025.Based as it is on a questionable strategy of developing a domesticsolar panel construction industry,Algerias renewablesprogramme is in the doldrums.Tunisia is pushing ahead with wind and solar schemes but non

316、ew gas-fired generation will be built once the combined-cyclegas turbine unit of the 450MW Rades C gas plant and the650MW Mornaguia plant are completed in 2020 and the450MW Skhira plant in 2021.Beleaguered Libya desperately needs more power generation butuntil the political and security environment

317、improves it isstruggling to complete existing projects,while budget constraintsmean that finding finance for new projects is also hard.Natural gas 50,924MW47.1%Liquid fuels 4,409MW 4.1%Natural gas&liquid fuels38,659MW 35.8%Coal 3,767MW 3.5%Nuclear 15MW 0.01%Hydroelectricity 4,859MW4.5%Solar 2,556MW

318、2.4%Biomass/biogas 1MW 0.001%Other 167MW 0.2%Wind 2,656MW 2.5%Source:African Energy Live Data African Energy 2020(www.africa-)NORTH AFRICA?S ON-GRID ENERGY MIX,Q1 2020Total:108,013MWMoroccoWtGCGLSSSWWSGGHHHCGHHCHWWWSGLW WLSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSGWWWGHHHXHHHHHHHHHWWLHHWGLGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHWHCWWHHHGLWMOROCCOSP

319、AINCanary Is.(Spain)Western Sahara(under UN mandate)MAUR.WesternSahara(under UNmandate)Canary Is.(Spain)MAURITANIAA L G E R I ATANGIERT?TOUANAL-HOCE?MAO R I E N TA LFS MEKNSSAL?BENI MELLALKH?NIFRASETTAT MARRAKECH SAFITA F I L A L E TS O U S S M A S S AG U E L M I M O U E D N O U NE L AY O U N S A K

320、I A E L H A M R A CASABLANCARABATK?NITRAD R?A EL AYOUNSAKIAEL HAMRADAKHLAOUED EDDAHABRABATF?sOujdaNadorMelilla(Sp.)Al-Hoce?maTazaFiguigEl Ayoun(La?youne)TarfayaTan TanGuelmimSidi IfniAgadirEssaouiraSafiOuarzazateBeniMellalKhouribgaK?nitraT?touanGibraltar(UK)MohammediaElJadidaSmaraZagTiznitTaroudantT

321、ataZagoraJorfLasfarErfoudMissourBou?rfaTendraraDebdouJeradaTafraouteEr RachidiaTarifaKh?nifraOualiliBeniTajjiteBoudnibAssaTazenakhtMekn?sCasablancaMediounaChemaiaChichaouaBourdimCeuta(Sp.)TangerMedTangierMarrakech(Tensiftsubstations)TlemcenSidi AliBoussidiGhazouetAgdzMideltMatmataMsounGteterBeniHadi

322、faOutat El HajEnjilBouananeBouizakarneBir LharOuezzaneTinghirSidiKacemBerrechidSettatKalla desSghragnaBeja?dKh?missetElHajebGuercifA?n BeniMatharLoukkosEl OualiBoujdourDakhlaLagouiraEl Ayoun(La?youne)00200100KilometresMiles1,000MW+100 999MW10 99MW3 9MWtttGGGNatural gasLiquid fuelsGas&liquid fuelsCoa

323、lThermal unknownHybridHydroelectricitySolar photvoltaic(except where marked CSP)WindBiomass/biogas400kV power line220kV power line60kV power lineConstructionPlannedLHSWOperatingLHSWLHSWC222CCXXX10000KmMiles200M E D I T E R R A N E A NS E AStraitofGibraltarMoulouyaTensiftDr?aDr?aOumerRbiaSebouAlbor?n

324、(Sp.)A T L A N T I CO C E A NElAbidBethZaLanzaroteFuerteventuraA T L A N T I CO C E A N LALLATAKERKOUSTBIN EL OUIDANEBOUTFERDAABDELMOUMEN (STEP)HASSAN IMOULAYYOUSSEFAL-MASSIRAIMFOUTDAOURATNOOR ATLASNOORATLASNOOR ATLASNOORATLASNOORATLASNOOR ATLASNOOR PV II(gas-solar)BOUAREGMOHAMMED VASFALOUAL-WAHDAKA

325、SBAZIDANIAIFAHSA(STEP)IDRESS INOORTAFILALET(LAMAADID)NOORTAFILALET(MSOUNA)NOORTAFILALET(OULAD KHAOUA)ELKANSERAAIRPORTTIT MELLILOULED GHANEMAKHFENNIRIIIWWFOUMAL-OUEDCIMENTSDU MAROCMANSOURED DAHBIOULJETES SOLTANETAZABAB OUENDERAL-KOUDIA AL-BAIDA I,IIJEBELLAHDIDTALAMBOT123451 HAOUMA2 KHALLADI3Fardioua4

326、Mellousa5 LAFARGE MAROC6 ALLAL EL FASSI7 VOLTALIA I8 M?DEZ EL MENZEL(STEP)9 VOLTALIA II10 TANAFNIT EL BORJKH?NIFRA COMPLEX:11 IMEZDILFANE12 TAJEMOUT13 TASKDERT14 AHMED EL HANSALI OUED ELMAKHAZINE67895161715 A?T MESSAOUD16 AFOURER(STEP)17 AFOURER18 TILOUGGUIT AVAL19 TILOUGGUIT AMONT20 MELL

327、OUL I21 MELLOUL II22 MIDELT23 NOOR MIDELTCSP&PV,PHASE I24 NOOR MIDELTCSP&PV,PHASE II25 NOOR PV II26 MIDELTPLATINUM24SSWWWWPLATINUM POWERNOOR INOOR IIVOLTALIA IITISKRADVOLTALIA I23NOOR PV IINOOR PV IINOORPV II22NOOR PV IINOORPV IITAHADDARTWWWLYNNA BIO POWERTANGIER IITANGIER IHASSAN II25 261819 2021SS

328、SSOUARZAZATE NOOR I CSPNOOR II CSPNOOR III CSPNOOR IVWWWPLATINUM POWERYNNA BIO POWERAMOUGDOULMAROC CHIMIEOUALIDIAtGCCOCPUNITS V-VIUNITS I-IVDHARDOUMSWSNOOR BOUJDOURWWFOUM AL-OUEDCIMENTS DU MAROCAFTISSATWLLHARMATTANSSWWWWPLATINUM POWERNOOR INOOR IIVOLTALIA IITISKRADVOLTALIA ICSP:concentrated solar po

329、werGTP:gas-to-powerLNG:liquefied natural gasSTEP:station de transfert d?nergiepar pompage(pumped storage)150kV150kVGAZODUC PEDRO DURANFARRELL(GPDF)/GAZODUC MAGHREBEUROPE(GME)FROM HASSI R?MELFUTURE GASPIPELINES?150kVx2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2 African Energy 2020(www.africa-)Former Spanish Sahara underUN mand

330、ate pending finaldecolonisation;sovereigntycontested by Morocco andPolisario Front.Algerian-Moroccan border not ratifiedsouth of Figuig.AFRICAN ENERGY ATLAS 2020/2021 APRIL 2020 25Capacity(MW)9,8381,0333,350Plants/projectsOperatingConstructionPlanned*Source:African Energy Live Data,April 2020.www.af

331、rica- with a planned commercial operation date of 2025 or earlier.Sources:SEforALL;IMFAccess to electricity(2017,millions)Population 34.85Those with access34.85%with access100AlgeriaWSXGGGGGSXLGLLLGGGSSSGXLXLXSL2GGLL2GSSGSGSGSGGGGGGSGHGHGXGSSSSSSGGSSSGGGGGGGG GSGGG GSGHHHHGGG GGGSGG GXLGM A L IM O R

332、 O C C OL I B Y AALGERIAN I G E RM O R O CCOTUNISIAT U N I S I ASPAINMAURITANIAAflouLaghouatALGIERSSidiBel Abb?sOranOujdaJendoubaTajerouineMetlaouiConstantineAnnabaBatnaBlidaS?tifDjelfaBiskraT?bessaEl OuedSkikdaB?ja?aTiaretTlemcenOuarglaGharda?aTamanrassetIn GuezzamBordj Badji MokhtarIn EkkerDjanetI

333、lliziIn Am?nasHassiBerkineSouthAdrarIn SalahTindoufTabelbalaB?charEl M?nia(El Gol?a)TimimounRegganeAoulefKaberteneTalmineKerzazB?ni Abb?sBordjOmar DrissHaoud El HamraGhadamesRhourdeNoussGassiTouilHassi MessouadOum El AsselNa?maM?cheriaA?n SefraEl BayadhSa?daArzewMostaganemA?nFatehA?nT?mouchentH.AmeurMascaraA?n DehebSougueurTissemsiltEch Ch?lifBerrouaghiaA?nOusseraBouSa?daTizi-OuzouBouiraM?SilaEl H