1、ITF North and Central Asia Transport Outlook Case-Specific Policy AnalysisCase-Specific Policy AnalysisITF North and Central Asia Transport Outlook The International Transport Forum The International Transport Forum is an intergovernmental organisation with 64 member countries.It acts as a think tan

2、k for transport policy and organises the Annual Summit of transport ministers.ITF is the only global body that covers all transport modes.The ITF is politically autonomous and administratively integrated with the OECD.The ITF works for transport policies that improve peoples lives.Our mission is to

3、foster a deeper understanding of the role of transport in economic growth,environmental sustainability and social inclusion and to raise the public profile of transport policy.The ITF organises global dialogue for better transport.We act as a platform for discussion and pre-negotiation of policy iss

4、ues across all transport modes.We analyse trends,share knowledge and promote exchange among transport decision makers and civil society.The ITFs Annual Summit is the worlds largest gathering of transport ministers and the leading global platform for dialogue on transport policy.The Members of the Fo

5、rum are:Albania,Armenia,Argentina,Australia,Austria,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Belgium,Bosnia and Herzegovina,Bulgaria,Cambodia,Canada,Chile,China(Peoples Republic of),Colombia,Croatia,Czech Republic,Denmark,Estonia,Finland,France,Georgia,Germany,Greece,Hungary,Iceland,India,Ireland,Israel,Italy,Japan,Kazak

6、hstan,Korea,Latvia,Liechtenstein,Lithuania,Luxembourg,Malta,Mexico,Republic of Moldova,Mongolia,Montenegro,Morocco,the Netherlands,New Zealand,North Macedonia,Norway,Poland,Portugal,Romania,Russian Federation,Serbia,Slovak Republic,Slovenia,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Tunisia,Turkey,Ukraine,the United

7、Arab Emirates,the United Kingdom,the United States and Uzbekistan.International Transport Forum 2 rue Andr Pascal F-75775 Paris Cedex 16 contactitf-oecd.org www.itf-oecd.org Case-Specific Policy Analysis Reports The ITFs Case-Specific Policy Analysis series presents topical studies on specific issue

8、s carried out by the ITF in agreement with local institutions.Any findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Transport Forum or the OECD.Neither the OECD,ITF nor the authors guarantee the accuracy o

9、f any data or other information contained in this publication and accept no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use.This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the ITF.This document,as well as any data and map included herein,are without prejudice t

10、o the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Cite this work as:ITF(2022),“ITF North and Central Asia Transport Outlook”,International Transport Forum Policy Papers,No.105,OECD Publishing,

11、Paris.Acknowledgements This report was written by John Pritchard with contributions from Orla McCarthy,Luis Martinez,Wei-Shiuen Ng and Vatsalya Sohu,all of the International Transport Forum(ITF),and Azhar Jaimurzina Ducrest,Sandeep Jain and Kuancheng Huang from the United Nations Economic and Social

12、 Commission for Asia and the Pacific(ESCAP).The project was co-ordinated by Wei-Shiuen Ng of the ITF.Jari Kauppila and Elisabeth Windisch(both ITF)provided valuable comments and guidance.The authors would like to thank Hilary Gaboriau and Edwina Collins for their editorial support.The report was dra

13、fted as a part of the“ITF Transport Outlook Special Issues for Asia:Policy Analysis and Implementation”project.Each report looks at a different sub-region in Asia and draws on the modelling framework and outputs from the ITF Transport Outlook 2021,desk research and insights from the ITF-UNESCAP join

14、t capacity building Workshop held virtually in October 2021 and the special event on“Transport Connectivity and Covid-19 Pandemic:Pathways for Greater Resilience and Sustainability”,organised during the ESCAP Fourth Ministerial Conference on Transport from 14 to 17 December 2021.This report is one o

15、f three special editions of the ITF Transport Outlook for three sub-regions in Asia,Southeast Asia,South and Southwest Asia,and North and Central Asia.The project was funded by the United Nations ESCAP as part of the United Nations Development Account projects on“Transport and trade connectivity in

16、the age of pandemics:Contactless,seamless and collaborative UN solutions”and“Promoting a shift towards sustainable freight transport in the Asia-Pacific region”.FOREWORD 4 ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Foreword The project ITF Transport Outlook Special Issues for Asia:Po

17、licy Analysis and Implementation was developed jointly by the International Transport Forum and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(ESCAP).Both organisations have long collaborated closely and grant each other reciprocal observer status.Funded by ESCAP and carr

18、ied out by the ITF,this project marks a new high point in this productive partnership.The reports of this joint project will help member countries of both organisations to understand Asias transport future better.How will demand for passenger mobility and freight transport evolve in the coming decad

19、es?What does this mean for transport-related emissions?And what impact could potential disruptions have?The Covid-19 pandemic has underlined the case for much more resilient transport systems,which require new and different transport policies.Enhancing governments capacity to identify critical diffe

20、rences in demand projections for passenger and freight transport between countries in different sub-regions in Asia and the rest of the world will help create a sound basis for necessary policy shifts.The sub-regions covered by the project are experiencing rapid changes in transport demand,the evolu

21、tion of mobility services and the provision of transport infrastructure.A primary objective of the work is to provide policy insights that help address the specific challenges in each sub-region and notably improve the sustainability of transport systems.To support the implementation of sustainable

22、transport pathways,the project included capacity-building and training sessions for each sub-region.The analyses also serve as input to priority actions on connectivity in the next phase of the ESCAP Asia-Pacific Regional Action Programme on Sustainable Transport Connectivity.I look forward to build

23、ing further on this excellent example of results-oriented collaboration between two leading intergovernmental organisations in the service of their members.Young Tae Kim Secretary-General,International Transport Forum TABLE OF CONTENTS ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 5 Tab

24、le of contents Executive summaryExecutive summary .8 8 Pathways to decarbonise transport in Pathways to decarbonise transport in North and Central Asia by 2050North and Central Asia by 2050 .1111 Reshaping transport as economies developReshaping transport as economies develop .1414 The human dimensi

25、on:Considering uneven population growth.14 The economic dimension:Pandemic impacts.16 Transport policy priorities for better sub-regional connectivity.17 Transport infrastructure and operations.20 Sustainability of freight operations in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic.211 Selected transport dev

26、elopments in North and Central Asia.23 Energy production and consumption.24 Freight transport:NonFreight transport:Non-urban and land transport to dominate future growthurban and land transport to dominate future growth .2626 Non-urban freight transport:Preparing for modal shift.28 Urban freight tra

27、nsport:Mitigating inevitable growth.30 Freight transport emissions:Considerable gains from ambitious policies.31 Passenger transport:Changes in travel behaviour for growing populationPassenger transport:Changes in travel behaviour for growing population .3535 Urban and non-urban passenger transport:

28、Significant growth by 2030.35 Urban and non-urban passenger transport emissions:Disproportionate outcomes by mode.37 Urban passenger accessibility,affordability and modal dependency.39 Conclusions and policy insightsConclusions and policy insights.4343 NotesNotes .4646 ReferencesReferences .4747 Ann

29、ex A.ITF Transport Outlook 2021 modelling scenarios:Recover,Reshape,Reshape+Annex A.ITF Transport Outlook 2021 modelling scenarios:Recover,Reshape,Reshape+.5050 Annex B.Annex B.Freight traFreight transport scenario specifications from the ITF Transport Outlook 2021nsport scenario specifications from

30、 the ITF Transport Outlook 2021 .5252 Annex C.Urban passenger transport scenario specifications from the Annex C.Urban passenger transport scenario specifications from the ITF Transport Outlook 2021ITF Transport Outlook 2021 .5555 Annex D.NonAnnex D.Non-urban passenger transport scenario specificati

31、ons from the urban passenger transport scenario specifications from the ITF Transport Outlook 2021ITF Transport Outlook 2021 .5858 TABLE OF CONTENTS 6 ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Figures 1.1.ITF Transport Outlook 2021ITF Transport Outlook 2021 scenario overviewscenario

32、 overview .1313 2.Projected population growth of selected North and Central Asia countries to 20502.Projected population growth of selected North and Central Asia countries to 2050 .1414 3.National population by age(%)in selected North and Central Asia countries,2020 and 20503.National population by

33、 age(%)in selected North and Central Asia countries,2020 and 2050 .1515 4.Population living in urban areas in selected North and Central Asia countries,19504.Population living in urban areas in selected North and Central Asia countries, .1616 5.Connectivity gap for selected North and Ce

34、ntral Asia countries5.Connectivity gap for selected North and Central Asia countries compared compared with the Netherlandswith the Netherlands .1818 6.Impact of di6.Impact of distances on each reaching global centres of production and consumptionstances on each reaching global centres of production

35、 and consumption for selected North and Central Asia countriesfor selected North and Central Asia countries .1919 7.World Economic Forum transport infrastructure scores for six North 7.World Economic Forum transport infrastructure scores for six North and Central Asia countriesand Central Asia count

36、ries .2121 8.Total final consumption of energy,by sector,in selected North and Central Asia countries8.Total final consumption of energy,by sector,in selected North and Central Asia countries .2525 9.Total freight activity in North and Central Asia by scenario to 20509.Total freight activity in Nort

37、h and Central Asia by scenario to 2050 .2626 10.Relative growth in freight activity in Asia and the world under 10.Relative growth in freight activity in Asia and the world under RecoverRecover and and ReshaReshape+pe+scenarios to 2050scenarios to 2050 .2727 11.Total non11.Total non-urban furban fre

38、ight activity by mode and scenario to 2050reight activity by mode and scenario to 2050 .2828 12.12.Modal share of nonModal share of non-urban freight by mode and scenario to 2050urban freight by mode and scenario to 2050 .2929 13.Total urban freight activity by scenario in North and Central Asia to

39、205013.Total urban freight activity by scenario in North and Central Asia to 2050 .3030 14.Surface freight activity ratio by type and scenario in North and Central Asia to 205014.Surface freight activity ratio by type and scenario in North and Central Asia to 2050 .3030 15.Total tank15.Total tank-to

40、to-wheel emission trends for nonwheel emission trends for non-urban freight by scenario to 2050urban freight by scenario to 2050.3131 16.Tank16.Tank-toto-wheel emissions for nonwheel emissions for non-urban freight by mode and scenario to 2050urban freight by mode and scenario to 2050 .3232 17.Freig

41、ht tank17.Freight tank-toto-wheel emissions by mode,scenario and year to 2050wheel emissions by mode,scenario and year to 2050.3333 18.Non18.Non-urban passenger demand by mode and scenario for North and Central Asia to 2050urban passenger demand by mode and scenario for North and Central Asia to 205

42、0 .3535 19.Urban passenger demand by mode and scenario for North and Central Asia to 205019.Urban passenger demand by mode and scenario for North and Central Asia to 2050 .3636 20.Total tank20.Total tank-toto-wheel emissions for freight and passenger transport to 2050wheel emissions for freight and

43、passenger transport to 2050 .3838 21.Non21.Non-urban passenger COurban passenger CO2 2 emissions by mode and sceemissions by mode and scenario to 2050nario to 2050 .3838 22.Urban passenger CO22.Urban passenger CO2 2 emissions by emissions by mode and scenario to 2050mode and scenario to 2050 .3939 2

44、3.Improvement of public23.Improvement of public-transport travel times to reach the city limits from the centretransport travel times to reach the city limits from the centre in 2050 under the in 2050 under the Reshape+Reshape+scenario compared to thescenario compared to the RecoverRecover scenarios

45、cenario .4141 TABLE OF CONTENTS ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 7 Tables 1.Climate action plans in selected North and Central Asia countries:Nationally determined 1.Climate action plans in selected North and Central Asia countries:Nationally determined contributionscontrib

46、utions .1212 2.Proportion of well2.Proportion of well-toto-tank emissions in total emissions in North and Central Asia bytank emissions in total emissions in North and Central Asia by year and mode to 2050year and mode to 2050 .3333 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8 ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OE

47、CD/ITF 2022 Executive summary What we did This report provides recommendations for transport policy makers to help them align economic development and growth with the decarbonisation commitments of North and Central Asian countries under the Paris Climate Agreement.The policy insights are based on t

48、hree scenarios for future transport demand and associated carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions in North and Central Asia to 2050.The baseline scenario(Recover)assumes that government policies return to business as usual after the Covid-19 pandemic.The other two scenarios(Reshape,Reshape+)assume governments

49、adopt more ambitious policies.Under Reshape+,governments leverage the impacts of the pandemic recovery measure for transport decarbonisation.The scenarios are a regional drill-down of the forward-looking policy scenarios for global transport activity used in the ITF Transport Outlook project.What we

50、 found The Covid-19 pandemic has caused significant disruptions and restrictions in the flow of people and goods worldwide.Landlocked regions that rely heavily on transport across land borders were particularly impacted by measures to limit the spread of the virus.During this time,transport demand f

51、or non-urban freight,urban freight and non-urban passenger travel significantly reduced in North and Central Asia.However,these disruptions were short-lived;projections do not foresee a long-term impact on transport demand growth and associated emission trends in North and Central Asia.In all three

52、scenarios,urban and non-urban freight activity in the sub-region more than doubles by 2050 compared to 2015.By 2030,the total tonne-kilometres of freight will grow by 72%under the Recover scenario compared to 2015.Under Reshape and Reshape+,freight activity will increase less(+58%)by 2050.After 2030

53、,however,the policies and trends included in the Reshape and Reshape+scenarios indicate much more substantial demand growth of 70%and 60%,while the Recover scenario projects only a 17%growth in freight from 2030.North and Central Asia will incur environmental costs for this growth unless significant

54、 changes reduce freight transports energy consumption.Non-urban freights tank-to-wheel(TTW)CO2 emissions in the sub-region will peak in 2040,translating into a 14%increase in TTW emissions by 2050 compared to 2015.However,the region can successfully decarbonise while continuing to grow.More ambitiou

55、s policies can lead to emissions reductions of more than 50%,according to the projections under the Reshape and Reshape+scenarios.The reduced passenger activity during the pandemic is projected to be followed by significant growth to 2030.Passenger kilometres increase by 36%compared to 2015 in the R

56、ecover scenario,30%under Reshape and 25%under Reshape+.By 2050,passenger kilometres could be more than twice as high as in 2015 under all three scenarios.They would be highest under the least ambitious scenario(Recover).Passenger transports environmental impacts vary significantly between the differ

57、ent transport modes.Air travel has a larger share of the emissions than of the transport activity under all scenarios and for all years.Similarly,road transport always accounts for at least 35%of non-urban passenger emissions,despite having a relatively small modal share ranging between 16%and 22%.R

58、ail has a significantly larger modal share of 35%to 44%but contributes not more than 6%of passenger transport emissions.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 9 The North and Central Asia population will transform the way it travels in the coming years.Private v

59、ehicles have the largest modal share of urban passenger travel in the sub-region,accounting for 44%of passenger-kilometres in 2015.The modal share for public transport was 29%,while walking,cycling and micromobility reached 20%.Paratransit accounted for only 4%in 2015,shared trips for 2%and shared v

60、ehicles for 1%.Nevertheless,shared mobility will grow under all three scenarios and more than double by 2050 to reach 17%by 2050 under Reshape and Reshape+.The share of private vehicles will drop to 30%,and paratransit will decrease to 1%of all passenger kilometres.The other passenger modes such as

61、active mobility and micromobility,and public transport are likely to maintain their modal share.Emissions from private vehicles make up the lions share of all urban emissions,despite a significant reduction in its share of the transport activity by 2050.In 2015,77%of passenger transport emissions ca

62、me from private vehicles.As public transport activity stalled in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic,their share increased to 85%.What we recommend Improve connectivity without increasing carbon intensityImprove connectivity without increasing carbon intensity Historically,increased carbon intensity a

63、nd its associated environmental costs underpinned connectivity improvements.Enhancing the well-being of citizens while meeting the challenges of decarbonisation will require a paradigm change in connectivity strategies.Future economic development must be achieved in sustainable ways to avoid the hum

64、an and economic damage that would be caused by further global warming.Better connectivity must not come with unacceptable environmental costs.Target regional linkages and sustainable growth in connectivity strategiesTarget regional linkages and sustainable growth in connectivity strategies Decarboni

65、sation policies that increase the distance-based costs of transport activity such as carbon prices or taxes will affect citizens and businesses in remote regions and less-connected markets more than those in well-connected regions.To minimise this impact,policies should focus on improving regional c

66、onnectivity and fostering regional trade.Complement coComplement connectivity improvements with initiatives to decarbonise fuel production and energy sourcesnnectivity improvements with initiatives to decarbonise fuel production and energy sources Over the coming years,improvements in North and Cent

67、ral Asias transport sector should be complemented with initiatives to make energy and fuel production greener and more sustainable.Advancements in vehicle technology and transport operations will decrease tailpipe emissions.As a result,the proportional impact of well-to-tank emissions on total trans

68、port emissions will increase.Regions with natural resources,including energy sources,can gain a competitive and strategic advantage by improving their energy sectors.Where carbon-based energy is available locally,well-to-wheel emissions and total energy consumption can be reduced.Prioritise service

69、improvements Prioritise service improvements and landand land-use development use development that encouragesthat encourages publicpublic-transport transport useuse Inclusive public transport development would result in fairer outcomes in the cities of North and Central Asia.Projections highlight th

70、at it is possible to significantly improve the accessibility provided by public transport with negligible impacts to the accessibility provided by private vehicles.North and Central Asias under-used road networks present an opportunity to focus investments on public transport development.On average,

71、no more than 20%of the road network capacity is used;by 2050,the figure could be below 5%.Thus,congestion is not a significant problem in the sub-region.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 10 ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Ensure Ensure urban mobility urban mobility is affordable is afford

72、able in in North and Central Asias North and Central Asias largelargest st citiescities Estimates expect that costs of urban mobility,based on the projected transport modal mix,will become less affordable in the sub-regions largest cities over the coming decades.Under the business-as-usual Recover s

73、cenario,the affordability of travelling in the largest cities will be two times lower than in 2015.Urban mobility becoming less affordable in these cities is concerning given the projected increase in the urban population.Larger shares of the population will be living in the largest cities in the co

74、ming decades in North and Central Asia.Policies that keep transport accessible to all citizens,including the most disadvantaged segments of the population,will assist equitable outcomes.PATHWAYS TO DECARBONISE TRANSPORT IN NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA BY 2050 ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK O

75、ECD/ITF 2022 11 Pathways to decarbonise transport in North and Central Asia by 2050 North and Central Asia includes many landlocked developing countries and is heavily reliant on in-land transport.The countries in the sub-region are highly motivated to increase their connectivity to the rest of the

76、world to improve their economic and trade prospects.However,these connectivity ambitions,seeking to encourage trade and its associated transport activity,must be balanced with the environmental goals of the sub-region as part of the global challenge to decarbonise and minimise climate change.Greenho

77、use gas(GHG)emissions are a key contributor to climate change on a global scale.It is therefore imperative for decarbonisation to become a policy priority globally.To decarbonise,national,regional,and global efforts will be needed.Without significant changes,it is estimated that the costs for mainte

78、nance and reconstruction of urban infrastructure will increase with global warming levels.It will also cause substantial functional disruptions in cities,particularly those located in permafrost,in cold regions,and on coasts.(IPCC,2022).However,the social and economic impacts will be felt across nat

79、ional boundaries.The IPCC(2022)states with high confidence that through supply chains,markets and natural resources,there are projected to be increased transboundary risks across the water,energy,and food sectors.This report highlights potential future directions of freight and passenger transport d

80、emand and transport-related emissions for North and Central Asia to 2050.This information can be helpful to policy makers in the sub-region as its countries strive to combat climate change by meeting their submitted Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)to the UNFCCC under the Paris Agreement.The

81、 United Nations ESCAPs definition of the North and Central Asia sub-region has been adopted for this report1 2.All North and Central Asia countries are signatories to the Paris agreement,a legally binding international treaty on climate change.Table 1 lists some ambitious unconditional commitments t

82、o reduce GHG emissions over the next decade.Several countries have also made further conditional commitments contingent on international support.PATHWAYS TO DECARBONISE TRANSPORT IN NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA BY 2050 12 ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Table Table 1 1.Climate a

83、ction plans in.Climate action plans in selected selected North and CentraNorth and Central Asial Asia countriescountries:N Nationally determined contributionsationally determined contributions N North and orth and C Central entral A Asiasia CountryCountry CommitmentCommitment to Uto United nited N N

84、ations ations N Nationally ationally D Determined etermined C Contributionontribution (UNNDC)(UNNDC)DateDate pledgedpledged Updated Updated c commitmentommitment to to UNNDC contingent UNNDC contingent on international on international supportsupport DateDate pledgedpledged Armenia-23/03/2017 40%red

85、uction in emissions by 2030(base year 1990)05/05/2021 Azerbaijan 35%reduction in emissions by 2030(base year 1990)09/01/2017-Georgia 15%reduction in emissions by 2030(base year 1990)08/05/2017 35%reduction in emissions by 2030(base year 1990)05/05/2021 Kazakhstan 15%reduction in emissions by 2030(ba

86、se year 1990)06/12/2016-Kyrgyzstan 11.5-13.70%reduction in emissions by 2030 18/02/2020 16%reduction in emissions by 2030 09/10/2021 Tajikistan 10-20%reduction in emissions by 2030(base year 1990)22/03/2017 30-40%reduction in emissions by 2030(base year 1990)12/10/2021 Turkmenistan Commitment to Red

87、uction 21/10/2016-Uzbekistan 10%reduction in emissions per unit of GDP by 2030(base year 2010)09/11/2018 35%reduction in emissions per unit of GDP by 2030(base year 2010)30/10/2021 Notes:All reported commitments are unconditional reductions.Some North and Central Asia countries have also made larger

88、 conditional commitments subject to further conditions.Values for Kyrgyzstan have been rounded up for consistency with other country data.Source:Data from country submitted Nationally Determined Contributions.NDC Registry(n.d.),All NDCs,webpage,https:/www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/All.aspx(

89、accessed 7 February 2022).The scenarios used in this study assess potential impacts of future transport activity on climate change through detailed carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions projections under different conditions.The ITF models used for the ITF Transport Outlook are demand-based models that show

90、what could be possible under certain policy scenarios,using policies that are already committed as the baseline.These ITF models are global,and as such,there are limitations to how granular the results presented can be.Model outputs are therefore reported at the sub-regional level,except for the con

91、nectivity section,that reports results at the national level.For the most recent ITF Transport Outlook(ITF,2021),three scenarios were considered,Recover,Reshape and Reshape+.These are described in detail in Annex A,with the specific policies for each of the transport models in Annexes B,C and D all

92、of which are extracted from the original Outlook 2021.Figure 1 gives a high-level summary of the three.PATHWAYS TO DECARBONISE TRANSPORT IN NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA BY 2050 ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 13 Figure Figure 1 1.ITF Transport Outlook 2021ITF Transport Outlook 2

93、021 scenario overviewscenario overview Source:ITF(2022b).The Recover scenario is the baseline in terms of policy measures.Under Recover,it is assumed that transport trends return to levels seen prior to the pandemic by 2025.It also assumes that only pre-existing planned or committed policies are imp

94、lemented,so there are no additional policies that build on the pandemic experience.From a policy perspective,this could be considered the business-as-usual scenario.Under Reshape,transport trends are again assumed to have returned to their pre-pandemic levels by 2025,and it is assumed that significa

95、ntly more ambitious policies to decarbonise transport will be implemented.This scenario is considered“transformational”.It assumes policy measures that“encourage changes in the behaviour of transport users,uptake of cleaner energy and vehicle technologies,digitalisation to improve transport efficien

96、cy,and infrastructure investment to help meet environmental and social development goals.”(ITF,2021).Measures such as carbon pricing or port fees would be assumed to be more stringent,while the attractiveness of more sustainable modes would be increased.The improved attractiveness would be due to as

97、sumed lower penalties for multimodal interchanges,greater investment in infrastructure and services,more efficient operations(through asset sharing in freight,for example)and broader uptake of innovative transport solutions and alternative fuels or power.Reshape+is the most ambitious of the three sc

98、enarios.It assumes that“governments seize decarbonisation opportunities created by the pandemic,which reinforce the policy efforts in Reshape.”(ITF,2021).Under Reshape+,any reductions in transport demand observed during the pandemic broadly continue,with a more ambitious policy package also being im

99、plemented.RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP 14 ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Reshaping transport as economies develop North and Central Asia is an extremely diverse sub-region that spans vast distances and has differing urbanisation rates,economic outlooks and ene

100、rgy endowments.The majority of these countries are landlocked.The regions demographic,economic,and policy context informs the transport trends and priorities.This chapter highlights country-specific and sub-regional economic and demographic forecasts.The human dimension:Considering uneven population

101、 growth The population of North and Central Asia was estimated to be 237.4 million in 2020 and,on aggregate,is expected to grow by 7%by 2050,reaching 253.5 million inhabitants(UNDESA,2019).However,individual countries show different trends.Figure Figure 2 2.Projected pProjected population opulation

102、growth growth of of selected selected North and Central Asia North and Central Asia countries to 2050countries to 2050 Note:Data are according to the medium-variant projections.Source:Adapted from UNDESA(2019),Population Division World Population Prospects 2019(database),https:/population.un.org/wpp

103、/.Some countries populations are expected to decrease while others grow.Growth rates vary widely among the countries with projected population increases.Azerbaijan has the smallest growth of 9%and Tajikistan the highest at 70%.Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are also expected to ha

104、ve high population growth rates:approximately 28%in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan,30%in Turkmenistan and 40%in Kyrgyzstan.Conversely,Armenias population,for example,will decline by 5%and Georgias by 12%.RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 1

105、5 These differences can be explained,in part,by the different demographic profiles of each of these countries.As shown in Figure 3,the countries with populations expected to decrease(Armenia and Georgia)are the only countries where the share of population under 20 years old is below 30%and the only

106、countries with elderly rates above 10%(UNDESA,2019).On the other extreme,almost 40%of Tajikistans population is currently under 20 years old,while only 3%are over 65 years old.Kyrgyzstan,Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan also show low elderly shares of 5%.The overall population growth in the sub-region an

107、d the expected significant growth rates in many countries are likely to increase transport demand for passenger and freight transport at national and sub-regional scales.This will have implications for network planning,and importantly,is also likely to have environmental consequences.National and re

108、gional policy makers should consider ways to minimise and mitigate the environmental impacts,including carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions.Figure Figure 3 3.National population by age(%)in National population by age(%)in selected selected North and Central Asia North and Central Asia countries,2020 and 205

109、0countries,2020 and 2050 Note:Data are according to the medium-variant projections.Source:Adapted from UNDESA(2019),Population Division World Population Prospects 2019(database),https:/population.un.org/wpp/.How and where the population of the sub-region lives is also expected to change.Its urban po

110、pulation has been continuously growing since the middle of the last century.This trend is expected to continue(see Figure 4).It is estimated that 64%of the North and Central Asia population,approximately 153 million people,currently live in cities(UNDESA,2019).Most North and Central Asia countries a

111、lready have urban population rates above 50%,e.g.,63%of the Armenian population is urban.Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are the only countries in North and Central Asia where less than 50%of the population reside in urban areas;36%for Kyrgyzstan and 27%for Tajikistan.By 2050,the urban population of North

112、 and Central Asia is predicted to increase to over 180 million people,accounting for 71%of the expected total population of RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP 16 ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 253.5 million(UNDESA,2019).Individually,the urban population rate is expe

113、cted to increase in all North and Central Asia countries.Only Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are estimated to still have urban population rates below 50%by 2050,with 39%and 48%,respectively.In Armenia,Azerbaijan and Georgia,the rate is expected to be approximately 71%each.Figure Figure 4 4.Population liv

114、ing in urban areas.Population living in urban areas in in selected selected North and Central Asia countriesNorth and Central Asia countries,1950, Source:Adapted from UNDESA(2018),World Urbanization Prospects:The 2018 Revision(database),https:/population.un.org/wup/.The economic dimensi

115、on:Pandemic impacts The economic outlook of the sub-region is challenging.Even before the Covid-19 pandemic,there was a deceleration in emerging market and developing economy countries(Dieppe,2021)and many existing structural issues were exacerbated by the pandemic.The falling demand for merchandise

116、 trade in 2020-22 has resulted in decreased fiscal revenue for landlocked countries(UNCTAD,2021).This reduced trade is particularly affecting the many landlocked countries in the sub-region dependent on such exports.During 2020,the growth of merchandise exports decreased for all North and Central As

117、ia countries,except Kyrgyzstan(UNCTADstad,2022e)and Tajikistan(UNCTADstad,2022f).The reduction in the growth of these exports was exceptionally high for Turkmenistan,Azerbaijan,and Kazakhstan(UNCTADstad,2022b;UNCTADstad,2022d;UNCTADstad,2022g).Many of the largest merchandise export partners for Nort

118、h and Central Asia countries are other countries within the sub-region.During 2020,this sub-regional trade was somewhat maintained despite the overall reduction in growth.Azerbaijan,Georgia,Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan were among the top five export purchasers of merchandise from other North and Centra

119、l Asia countries.This reliable demand highlights the importance of increasing sub-regional trade.Sub-regional trade can be more sustainable than long-RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 17 distance interregional trade since the distance

120、 component of the tonne-kilometre output is reduced.It is also often more resilient under challenging conditions.On aggregate,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan and Uzbekistan,suffered a 1.5%reduction in GDP in 2020.However,the countries of the South Caucasus region,Armenia,Azerbaijan and Georgia,were

121、 more severely impacted.In these countries,there was a 5.2%reduction in GDP(World Bank,2021).More specifically,country estimates show reductions in GDP growth of 7.4%in Armenia(UNCTADstad,2022a),4.3%in Azerbaijan(UNCTADstad,2022b),6.2%in Georgia(UNCTADstad,2022c),2.6%in Kazakhstan(UNCTADstad 2022d),

122、and 8.6%in Kyrgyzstan(UNCTADstad 2022e).Only the following three countries had positive gross domestic product growth rate in 2020 Tajikistan(3%),Turkmenistan(5.9%)and Uzbekistan(1.6%)(UNCTADstad,2022f;UNCTADstad,2022g;UNCTADstad,2022h).Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan and Uzbekistans economies are

123、expected to rebound in 2022 and grow by 4.3%after a 1.5%reduction in 2020(World Bank,2021).The South Caucasus region is expected to have similar growth of 4.2%in 2022.These projected growth increases are unlikely to be sufficient to reverse the damage from the Covid-19 pandemic.Such forecasted recov

124、ery numbers are well below historical averages(World Bank,2021).Additionally,the reality of GDP per capita in 2022 falls far from pre-pandemic projections.For example,GDP per capita is 6.3%lower for Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in 2022 than pre-pandemic projections and similarly 6

125、.7%lower for the South Caucasus.Inflation in the sub-region also continues to be problematic,partially causing policy interest rates to rise in Armenia,Georgia,Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan(World Bank,2021).Transport policy priorities for better sub-regional connectivity The North and Central Asia sub-r

126、egion is strategically important given its geographic location that connects Eastern Asia with the European continent.Despite this location,the access of this sub-region to the rest of the world remains low,and these countries face difficulties in accessing the global trade market(ITF,2019).Furtherm

127、ore,the cost of trading goods in the overall North and Central Asia sub-region is among the highest in the world.It is estimated that only developing economies in the Pacific Islands have a higher cost of trading than Central Asia countries(UNESCAP,2021).Transport has been one of the sectors hit the

128、 hardest by the Covid-19 pandemic.The landlocked developing countries of this sub-region face a very particular set of challenges.Border closures and disruptions to trade and transport have further isolated them from global markets(UNCTAD,2021).As each of these countries strive to recover from the e

129、ffects of the Covid-19 pandemic,challenges will arise to align their existing transport priorities,with the submitted Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)commitments as part of the Paris Agreement.In particular,better connectivity is a sub-regional transport priority that may not necessarily al

130、ign with decarbonisation.Increasing connectivity has been associated with increased carbon intensity,in part because it induces demand and encourages longer distances to be travelled.As such,the environmental costs of increased transport activity needs to be considered and policies need to be implem

131、ented to minimise the potential negative impacts.Connectivity can be understood as measuring the“economic space”available for trade for each country.That is,the ease with which their goods can reach potential global markets.In this sense,it contextualises the scale of freight transport activity.Beca

132、use of the abstract nature of measuring connectivity,i.e.,how many opportunities(defined as GDP)can be reached from each country,using a relative measure makes the results easier to interpret.The Netherlands is used as the reference point for the relative connectivity measure because it was estimate

133、d to have the highest connectivity.All other connectivity values are given RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP 18 ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 as percentages of this maximum connectivity in the results presented below.Further details about the indicator can be foun

134、d in Box 1.The connectivity gap in North and Central Asia is substantial.The relative connectivity ranges from 53%to 75%of the connectivity achieved by the Netherlands,as seen in Figure 5.Tajikistan has the lowest relative connectivity(53%),followed closely by Kyrgyzstan,which reaches only 54%of the

135、 Dutch connectivity.Armenia is found to have the highest connectivity,albeit still only 75%of Dutch connectivity.Azerbaijan and Georgia have relative connectivity above 70%.Much of the connectivity gap is due to geography.This calls into question the aim of increasing connectivity for the sake of co

136、nnectivity.Figure 6 shows the distance gaps for North and Central Asia countries to reach world GDP compared to better-connected regions is significant.The figure includes the Netherlands,the reference country in the relative connectivity measure,and the United States.The latter is an example of a l

137、arge,developed economy with significant international trade.The United States and the Netherlands can reach a significantly higher percentage of the global GDP within much shorter distances.Figure Figure 5 5.C Connectivity onnectivity g gap forap for selected selected N North and orth and C Central

138、entral A Asiasia countries compared with thecountries compared with the NetherlandsNetherlands RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 19 Figure Figure 6 6.Impact of distances on each reaching global centres of production Impact of distance

139、s on each reaching global centres of production and consumption and consumption for selected North and Central Asia countriesfor selected North and Central Asia countries RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP 20 ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Box 1.Box 1.Measuring the

140、connectivity gap between countriesMeasuring the connectivity gap between countries The methodological approach for measuring connectivity in this report is a gravity-based model which measures how many opportunities(defined as GDP)can be reached from each country relative to other countries.The expl

141、anatory components are calculated for road,rail and maritime transport modes and include distance,transport cost(including border crossing and handling cost),travel time(speed)and border crossing time.The following formula represents the indicator structure:=()where g is the generalised cost,includi

142、ng all the explanatory factors;is the elasticity of the index to the generalised cost and is set to equal 0.4(a commonly used value for trade patterns elasticities);is arbitrarily set so that the ratio gc/is always below one and close to 1 for adjacent countries.The index measures the“economic space

143、”available to trade by country,given the explanatory factors.Source:extract from ITF(2019),“Enhancing Connectivity and Freight in Central Asia”,International Transport Forum Policy Papers,No.71,OECD Publishing,Paris.,p.45.Transport infrastructure and operations The North and Central Asia sub-region

144、plays an essential role in the Eurasian transport system.The condition of the infrastructure and the landlocked position of many of the countries frame the freight and passenger transport situation in the region.The sub-region has an extensive road and rail network largely inherited from the Soviet

145、period.The transport systems of the countries have high basic interoperability but now require technical and environmental upgrades.Additionally,the long average distances and the predominant role of inland transport has resulted in a corridor-based approach to transport system development of interc

146、onnected networks that are meant to serve as a link between outlying regions.The sub-region faces significant transport infrastructure and operational hurdles to improve the quality of its transport networks.According to the World Economic Forum(WEF)global competitiveness report(WEF,2019),Azerbaijan

147、 ranks 31st in the transport infrastructure score component of the index.The remaining countries in the sub-region included in the report(it excludes Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan)rank in the bottom half of 141 countries ranked.Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan fare particularly poorly in this score at 129th

148、and 111th,respectively.The WEF transport infrastructure score includes eight road,rail,sea,and air transport infrastructure sub-indicators.These are road connectivity,quality of road infrastructure,railroad density,the efficiency of train services,airport connectivity,the efficiency of air transport

149、 services,liner shipping connectivity and efficiency of seaport services(Figure 7).The maritime shipping indicators are particularly low or non-existent,given the landlocked and limited maritime nature of many of the countries.Of the highlighted countries in Figure 7.Exceptionally,Georgia,has access

150、 to the Black Sea and Azerbaijan,Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have access to the Caspian,a large inland body of water,but these three countries are still considered landlocked(UNCTAD,n.d.).RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 21 Figure Fi

151、gure 7 7.World Economic Forum.World Economic Forum transport infrastrutransport infrastructure scores cture scores for six North and Central Asia countriesfor six North and Central Asia countries Note:The World Economic Forum database does not include Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.Source:Adapted from

152、World Economic Forum(2019)The Global Competitiveness Report 2019.The WEF transport indicator also highlights the different geographic scales in the region.Kazakhstan has a relatively higher efficiency of rail but the density of the rail system is low due to,in part,the size of the country.On the oth

153、er hand,Armenia and Azerbaijan have higher rail density but lower efficiency,highlighting the different challenges faced by North and Central Asia countries.Stable growth in air transport services has been observed for the sub-region.The annual growth rate in passengers is 7.7%,excluding the countri

154、es with incomplete data(Armenia,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan)(World Bank,n.d.).Even with this passenger traffic volume growth,the air connectivity of this sub-region remains relatively low.This is due in part to the lack of adequate infrastructure and services.It is common for passengers to transfer

155、at an airport outside the sub-region to reach a destination in neighbouring countries.Sustainability of freight operations in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic Local greenhouse gas emissions by North and Central Asia countries correspond to the modal structure of transport.More than 80%of total t

156、ransport-related CO2 emissions are related to road transport(Crippa et al.,2021).RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP 22 ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Box 2.Supporting regional coBox 2.Supporting regional co-operation on sustainable operation on sustainable freight i

157、n Asia Pacificfreight in Asia Pacific The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(UNESCAP)is working on a regional strategy to deepen sustainability in freight transport and give further momentum and coherence to initiatives being undertaken at the region-wide level fo

158、r Asia-Pacific.The outline of the proposed strategy addresses common challenges and offers a guiding vision,objectives,linkages to SDGs directly supported,enablers,priority areas and implementation arrangements.This policy document could bring a range of stakeholders onto a common platform to plan a

159、nd implement sustainable freight-transport policies that contribute to achieving SDGs in the decade of action for sustainable development.Regional strategy to deepen Regional strategy to deepen sustainable freight transport in Asia and the Pacificsustainable freight transport in Asia and the Pacific

160、 Guiding vision Efficient,connected,safe and clean regional freight transport system to support the realisation of Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)Objectives Providing coherence to the sustainable freight initiatives Creating synergies through partnerships Ensuring high-level political affirmatio

161、n Sharpening the links between freight transport policies and SDGs SDGs supported directly SDG Targets 9.1,9.a,3.6,12.3,9.4,7.3,13.1 Enablers or cross-cutting issues Strengthening governance for sustainable freight transport at a national level Enhancing co-ordination for sustainable freight transpo

162、rt at sub-regional level Building the capacity of transport officials Promoting use of digital transport technologies Encouraging private sector engagement for sustainable freight transport policies Diversifying sources of financing for sustainable freight transport Priority areas Decarbonising frei

163、ght transport Building resilience of freight transport to effectively deal with climate challenges and pandemics Strengthening cross-border and transit-transport connectivity Enhancing rural freight transport linkages Improving urban freight logistics Reducing freight-transport-related accidents Inc

164、reasing share of rail freight and other sustainable transport modes Implementing arrangements Establishing a sustainable freight co-ordinating platform Developing a sub-regional action plan on sustainable freight transport Monitoring and evaluating through a results framework Source:ITF(2022b).RESHA

165、PING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 23 Supply chain shortages caused by disruptions from the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 resulted in meaningful changes in the transport mix.There has been a significant shift to rail from maritime tran

166、sport for international freight flows(containerised goods).In 2020,for the first time,rail transport was not only faster than sea transport,but for some destinations the cost of transportation was even lower than on any other alternative routes.In 2020 and 2021,specific measures to facilitate intern

167、ational transportation,mainly rail,were applied in several North and Central Asia countries.Rail was one of the few transport sectors that benefited from the pandemic period in the global container market.This growth in rail freight transport,along with the momentum gained by digitalisation initiati

168、ves,shows significant potential for improving the sustainability of the sub-regions freight transport operations through national initiatives and regional co-operation.Selected transport developments in North and Central Asia Several transport initiatives have attempted to develop multimodal pathway

169、s in North and Central Asia to link Europe and Asia effectively.These projects include the International North-South Transport Corridor(INSTC),Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation(CAREC)Program,Belt and Road Initiative(BRI),Transport Corridor Europe Caucasus-Asia(TRACECA),Trans-Asian Railway(T

170、AR),Trans-Caspian International Transport Route(TITR)middle Corridor,Caspian Sea Black Sea International Transport Corridor(ITC-CSBS),Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway,and the Lapis Lazuli corridor.The Peoples Republic of Chinas National Transport Plan focuses on developing interconnected international phys

171、ical networks(e.g.,railways,waterways,pipelines)as part of the six economic corridors of the Silk Road Economic Belt.It is highly focused on intercontinental rail,although it also targets aviation and maritime shipping.A major goal is to better integrate transport and industrial infrastructure outsi

172、de China.(Kenderdine and Bucsky,2021)The Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program(CAREC)program,which encompasses 11 countries,has financed over 200 projects totalling more than USD 40 billion in investments and has developed and financed transport corridors in the region.Since 2000,CAREC

173、has directed 75%of the investment(more than USD 30 billion)at transport projects.An additional 22%has focused on energy(CAREC,2021).Sub-regionally,the Trans-Asian Railways traverses some North and Central Asia countries,including the Northern Corridor(e.g.,Kazakhstan)and the North-South Corridor(e.g

174、.Armenia,Azerbaijan,Kazakhstan,and Turkmenistan).Prompted by growing transport demand from international trade,the railway freight volumes along the Northern Corridor continue to grow.Meanwhile,the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars(BTK)railway line opened a new railway transit route in October 2017 to connect the N

175、orth and Central Asia countries with Turkey and European countries.The BTK route is the shortest link between the Caspian Sea and Europe,prompting plans by Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to start regular ferry services across the Caspian Sea(UNESCAP,2019).The Asian Highway Network is the backbone of th

176、e road networks in North and Central Asia.Since its inception,it has been included in the national plans of many countries of the sub-region.However,the planned network is still incomplete and the quality of the existing infrastructure remains a great concern for many of the countries.Primary and Cl

177、ass-I roads account for only 13%of the existing infrastructure.Roads of Class-III or below account for more than 30%of the existing road infrastructure in the sub-region.Significantly,in the cases of Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan,the large majority of their road infrastructure(more than 80%)is classed

178、 Class-III or below(UNESCAP,2019).In addition to necessary infrastructure improvements,there is a significant need to address non-physical barriers in the sub-region(UNESCAP,2020a;UNESCAP,2020b).Operational connectivity,including border RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP 24 ITF NORTH AND CENTR

179、AL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 crossings and transit facilitation,is crucial for road transport along the Asian Highways.To this end,there have been other developments to encourage transport within the sub-region.One example is the Common Economic Space and the formation of the Customs Unio

180、n(also known as the Eurasian Economic Union).This Union is similar to the European Union(EU)but focuses on economic components to avoid political,military,cultural and ideological divisions(Mostafa and Mahmood,2018).This single economic zone has removed inspections and other administrative barriers

181、at the internal borders,transferring these to the external borders only(Faskhiev,2018).Other lesser agreements,treaties,and statements have also promoted transport integration.The Eurasian Central Corridor,the most relevant to the North and Central Asia sub-region among three identified corridors,is

182、 almost entirely covered by applicable agreements or arrangements.Among the 16 border crossing points along the corridor,transshipment is only required between Afghanistan and Pakistan.The most common permit system along this corridor is the“single round trip permit,”and permit-free bilateral transp

183、ort arrangements have been made for the cases of Turkmenistan the Islamic Republic of Iran,Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan,and Uzbekistan Kazakhstan round-trip connections.The sub-region has a relatively low level of digitalisation and facilitation of cross-border transport operations.According to the UN Glob

184、al Survey on Digital and Sustainable Trade Facilitation 2019,the average implementation of a set of 31 trade facilitation and paperless trade measures is 65.6%for the sub-region.Leveraging innovative solutions to facilitate cross-border processes should be a policy priority to achieve more resilient

185、 cargo transport for the post-Covid-19“new normal”in the sub-region.Initial responses to the pandemic included new cross-border restrictions,which caused severe disruption to freight routes.Subsequent improvements,such as increased flexibility and the introduction of electronic documentation,were co

186、nsidered positive advances and lessons learned from the pandemic.Energy production and consumption The sub-region is rich in energy resources,including traditional and renewable sources.These abundant natural resources include oil,natural gas,and coal,as well as wind,solar and hydro energy(Liu,2019)

187、.This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for the sub-region.On the one hand,there are incentives for large oil producing countries to maintain the status quo(Kazakhstan has the 12th highest crude oil reserves globally(IEA,2020).On the other hand,there is a high potential for energy indepen

188、dence and there are ample alternative resources that could be harnessed to move towards decarbonisation.Additionally,energy-rich countries in the sub-region can leverage improvements in the energy sector to minimise the overall environmental costs associated with transport because they can face the

189、challenge on two fronts.The IEA(2016)estimates that transport is currently an important component of the national total final consumption(TFC)for many countries in North and Central Asia.In particular,37.6%of the TFC of Kyrgyzstan is associated with the transport sector.Armenia,Azerbaijan and Georgi

190、a also have transport shares above 20%.RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 25 Figure Figure 8 8.Total final.Total final consumption ofconsumption of e energy,by sectornergy,by sector,in,in selected selected North and Central Asia countr

191、iesNorth and Central Asia countries Source:Adapted from IEA(2016),Energy Policies Beyond IEA Countries:Eastern Europe,Caucasus and Central Asia 2015,https:/www.iea.org/reports/energy-policies-beyond-iea-countries-eastern-europe-caucasus-and-central-asia-2015.FREIGHT TRANSPORT:NON-URBAN AND LAND TRAN

192、SPORT TO DOMINATE FUTURE GROWTH 26 ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Freight transport:Non-urban and land transport to dominate future growth Urban and non-urban freight activity in the North and Central Asia is projected to grow regardless of the policy scenarios applied ov

193、er the coming decades.Under the Recover or,business-as-usual scenario,the total tonne-kilometres(tkm)of freight are expected to grow by 72%by 2030 compared to the 2015 baseline values.However,the growth is only expected to be 58%under the more ambitious policies applied under Reshape and Reshape+.By

194、 2050,total freight activity under all three scenarios is projected to more than double 2015 values(Figure 9).However,the policies and trends included in the Reshape and Reshape+scenarios will create more significant growth in freight activity than under the Recover scenario for the sub-region.Recov

195、er is expected to increase freight activity by 17%by 2050 from 2030,whereas Reshape and Reshape+by 60%.This growth in freight activity will not be isolated to North and Central Asia.Freight activity is expected to grow in the coming decades globally(ITF,2021).Yet,under the business-as-usual Recover

196、scenario,the freight activity in North and Central Asia is projected to grow slower than in other Asia sub-regions.For example,the freight activity in Southeast Asia and South and Southwest Asia is expected to be four times greater by 2050 than their 2015 baseline values(Figure 10).However,North and

197、 Central Asia is only expected to have approximately twice the amount of freight activity by 2050 compared to its 2015 levels,which is below the global average(purple in Figure 10).In contrast,other Asian sub-regions are expected to experience growth well above the world average.Figure Figure 9 9.To

198、tal freight activity.Total freight activity in Nin North and Central Asiaorth and Central Asia by scenario by scenario to 2050to 2050 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+,which refer to the three scenarios modelled,represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic pol

199、icies to decarbonise transport.FREIGHT TRANSPORT:NON-URBAN AND LAND TRANSPORT TO DOMINATE FUTURE GROWTH ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 27 Interestingly,under the more ambitious Reshape+scenario,freight activity is expected to be higher in 2050 than under the business-as-u

200、sual Recover scenario.This conflicts with projections for Southeast Asia and South and Southwest Asia,where their business-as-usual scenarios are estimated to create higher freight activity than the ambitious Reshape scenarios by 2050.These different results between the sub-regions may be due to imp

201、rovements to rail and waterways,as well as trade regionalisation modelled for North and Central Asia.However,it should be highlighted that the modelling results are aggregated to a set of measures applied simultaneously.The independent impact of particular measures is not modelled.As a result,the im

202、pact of particular measures included as part of the scenario package of policy interventions on the total results is not analysed.Figure Figure 1010.Relative growth in freight activity in Asia and the world Relative growth in freight activity in Asia and the world under under RecoverRecover anand d

203、Reshape+Reshape+scenarios toscenarios to 20502050 Notes:Index=2015.Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover and Reshape+,which refer to two scenarios modelled.Reshape+represents more ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.FREIGHT TRANSPORT:NON-URBAN AND LAND TRANSPORT TO DOMI

204、NATE FUTURE GROWTH 28 ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Non-urban freight transport:Preparing for modal shift Non-urban freight activity,including international freight,constitutes most of the total freight for North and Central Asia.Estimates show that non-urban freight alw

205、ays accounts for at least 90%of the total freight activity for all scenarios in all years.Additionally,other than a slight dip during 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic,the tonne-kilometres ratio is expected to grow and reach 95%by 2030(Figure 11).In addition to the substantial growth in tonne-kilome

206、tres(Figure 11),there are also expected modal shifts(Figure 12).When discussing the modal shares,it is important to note that multimodal trip chains account for most of the freight activity.For instance,a trip between point A and point B may include a road segment to reach a port,a maritime segment,

207、and then a rail segment before reaching its final destination.The modal shares discussed in this section are estimated by assigning the entire trip chain to the most significant(i.e.longest)modal component.In the case of North and Central Asia,this is an important consideration because being part of

208、 global trade ensures that maritime transport remains significant despite the sub-region including many landlocked developing countries.Land freight transport currently dominates regional transport in the sub-region.Rail and road freight transport accounted for more than 70%of its total transport ac

209、tivity in 2015.Rail alone accounted for 48%.The importance of these two modes became even more marked during the pandemic-stricken 2020,when they were estimated to account for nearly 90%of the total transport activity.Before the pandemic,sea freight accounted for 26%of inter-urban freight in North a

210、nd Central Asia,despite the landlocked nature of many countries in the sub-region.However,in 2020 the share of maritime transport was reduced to only 10%.This highlights potential difficulties for trade growth,as maritime freight accounts for the largest share of global freight activity(ITF,2021).Fi

211、gure Figure 1111.Total non.Total non-urban freight activity by modeurban freight activity by mode andand scenario in scenario in North and Central AsiaNorth and Central Asia to 2050to 2050 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+,which refer to the three scenarios mode

212、lled,which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.FREIGHT TRANSPORT:NON-URBAN AND LAND TRANSPORT TO DOMINATE FUTURE GROWTH ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 29 Figure Figure 1212.Modal share of nonModal share of non-urban freight by

213、mode and scenario in North and Central Asia to 2050 urban freight by mode and scenario in North and Central Asia to 2050 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+,which refer to the three scenarios modelled,which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies t

214、o decarbonise transport.Maritime freight transport can recover and have the largest relative modal growth in the sub-region if ambitious decarbonisation policies are put in place.This result is unsurprising given the low levels of activity and share currently.As the sub-regions global international

215、trade increases,a significant part of this trade is expected to be via maritime.Under the business-as-usual Recover scenario,maritime freight is projected to account for 42%of freight activity by 2030 before settling at 34%by 2050.Under Reshape and Reshape+,the importance of maritime is even more si

216、gnificant.Under both scenarios,the maritime share is projected to be above 45%by 2030 and nearly 60%by 2050.The total tonne-kilometres of rail freight is also expected to increase(Figure 11).Rail will remain an important component of the sub-regional transport system under all scenarios analysed,sti

217、ll accounting for 31%of the trips.However,due to the increase in demand,the share of maritime transport will be 58%under the Reshape scenarios by 2050.The transport network improvements,reduction in penalties for mode transfers at international terminals,and the whole gamut of policies and exogenous

218、 factors included in the freight scenarios(refer to Annex B for the complete list)work together to facilitate access to sea ports outside of the landlocked countries in North and Central Asia.This transition would also require soft policy measures,including transit policies,to ensure the operational

219、 feasibility of transit activities.0%20%40%60%80%100%BaselineCovid-19RecoverReshapeReshape+RecoverReshapeReshape+20050RiverAirSeaRailRoadNon-urban freight mode shareFREIGHT TRANSPORT:NON-URBAN AND LAND TRANSPORT TO DOMINATE FUTURE GROWTH 30 ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OEC

220、D/ITF 2022 Urban freight transport:Mitigating inevitable growth Urban freight activity is expected to increase regardless of the policy scenarios applied(Figure 13).Under the business-as-usual Recover scenario this increase is expected to be 72%by 2050.However,activity growth can be limited by the m

221、ore ambitious scenarios;56%under Reshape and down to 53%for Reshape+.The growth of non-urban freight tonne-kilometres will outpace the growth in urban freight activity(Figure 14).By 2050 it is projected that under the Reshape and Reshape+scenarios,urban freight activity will account for only 4%of th

222、e total freight activity.Figure Figure 1313.Tota.Total urban freight activity by scenario in North and Central Asial urban freight activity by scenario in North and Central Asia to 2050to 2050 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+,which refer to the three scenarios

223、modelled,which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.Figure Figure 1414.Surface freight activity ratio by type.Surface freight activity ratio by type andand scenario in Nscenario in North and orth and C Central entral A Asiasia to 2050to 2050 Notes:Surface

224、freight includes road,rail and inland waterways.Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+,which refer to the three scenarios modelled,which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.FREIGHT TRANSPORT:NON-URBAN AND LAND TRANSPORT TO DOMI

225、NATE FUTURE GROWTH ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 31 Freight transport emissions:Considerable gains from ambitious policies The energy consumption and associated emissions for freight transport will grow due to its activity increase unless significant changes are made.Tan

226、k-to-wheel(TTW)emissions are those generated by transport activity directly.As the name implies,they are the emissions generated while a vehicle operates.These emissions can be directly impacted by transport policies and potentially reduced by changes in the organisation of transport activity.For ex

227、ample,by reducing the number of vehicle-kilometres or by improvements in vehicular efficiency.Under the current business-as-usual Recover scenario,non-urban TTW CO2 emissions in North and Central Asia would peak in 2040(Figure 15).There would be a 14%increase in TTW emissions by 2050 compared to the

228、 2015 baseline levels without ambitious intervention.To this effect,there would be reductions of more than 50%under the Reshape and Reshape+scenarios.Non-urban TTW emissions dropped by 3%in 2020 due to the pandemic.However they are projected to increase by 25%by 2030 and remain 15%above 2015 levels

229、by 2050.Ambitious policies could create significant improvements.By 2030,non-urban emissions could be 6%lower than 2015 emissions under Reshape and 25%lower under Reshape+.By 2050,these values are expected to be more than 50%lower than 2015 values in both scenarios.F Figure igure 1 15 5.TotalTotal t

230、anktank-toto-wheel emission trends wheel emission trends for nonfor non-urban freight urban freight by scenario for North and Central Asia to 2050by scenario for North and Central Asia to 2050 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+,which refer to the three scenarios

231、modelled,which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.Non-urban-road freight and urban freight,both reliant on trucks,have a disproportionate impact on emissions in North and Central Asia,when compared to their total tonne-kilometres.This highlights the impo

232、rtance of improved and more efficient road freight operations(e.g.through asset sharing),better fuel FREIGHT TRANSPORT:NON-URBAN AND LAND TRANSPORT TO DOMINATE FUTURE GROWTH 32 ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 standards,and fleet renewal to greener vehicles.Regardless of th

233、e scenario applied,road freight always accounts for at least 60%of the non-urban emissions,and in the business-as-usual Recover scenario would emit 75%of these emissions in 2050.However,in terms of the total tonne-kilometres,road freight only accounted for approximately 25%of the non-urban freight a

234、ctivity in 2015 and for all scenarios would only account for 10-20%of this activity in 2030 and 2050.Similarly,urban freight accounted for only 7%of the total surface freight tonne-kilometres in 2015 but produced 37%of equivalent CO2 emissions.The activity share of urban freight will remain below 10

235、%of the surface freight activity under all scenarios but this outsized impact will remain unless the ambitious measures in the Reshape scenarios are implemented(Figure 16).Urban freight emissions in the sub-region could be 14%below 2015 levels by 2030 under Reshape and 34%below under Reshape+.By 205

236、0,these could extend to 69%lower than 2015 levels under Reshape and 75%lower under Reshape+.However,on aggregate,urban freight emissions would still account for approximately 28%of all surface freight emissions in 2050(Figure 16).All emissions considered in this analysis are tank-to-wheel.As a resul

237、t,upstream leaks are not accounted for in these estimates.Less green and highly carbonised energy generation can therefore diminish the associated emissions reductions.How energy is produced,fuel sources,and the processes used to bring this fuel to vehicles are critical well-to-tank(WTT)lifecycle co

238、mponents of the total emissions associated with transport activity to consider(Garcia et al.,2021).In particular,the share of WTT emissions is critical in highly electrified sectors because the associated TTW emissions trend towards zero as electrification increases.FigurFigure e 1616.T Tankank-toto

239、-wheel emissions wheel emissions for nonfor non-urban freight urban freight by modeby mode andand scenarioscenario to 2050to 2050 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+,which refer to the three scenarios modelled,which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic p

240、olicies to decarbonise transport.FREIGHT TRANSPORT:NON-URBAN AND LAND TRANSPORT TO DOMINATE FUTURE GROWTH ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 33 Figure Figure 1717.F Freight tankreight tank-toto-wheel emissions by mode,scenario and yearwheel emissions by mode,scenario and year

241、 to 2050to 2050 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+,which refer to the three scenarios modelled,which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.In the 2015 baseline,72%of all well-to-wheel(WTW)emissions associated with rail f

242、reight transport in North and Central Asia corresponded to the WTT component.Other modes had shares ranging from 28%in aviation to 15%in maritime transport(Table 2).By 2050,due to several trends such as the acceleration of electrification,fuel efficiency standards and improved vehicle technology,the

243、 share of WTT emissions will increase for all modes under the more ambitious Reshape scenarios.Table Table 2 2.Proportion of well.Proportion of well-toto-tank emissions in total emissions tank emissions in total emissions in Nin North and orth and C Central entral A Asiasia by year and modeby year a

244、nd mode to 2050to 2050 YearYear ScenarioScenario AirAir RailRail Inland Inland WaterwaysWaterways RoadRoad MaritimeMaritime UrbanUrban 2015 Baseline 28%72%26%19%15%16%2020 Covid-19 28%66%24%19%15%17%2030 Recover 29%67%30%24%17%20%Reshape 35%88%30%23%18%21%Reshape+35%88%32%29%19%27%2050 Recover 31%59

245、%36%27%23%28%Reshape 69%100%36%31%24%36%Reshape+70%100%40%35%26%39%0 20 40 60 80 100 120BaselineCovid-19RecoverReshapeReshape+RecoverReshapeReshape+20050Tank-to-wheel CO2Equivalent emissions(Million tonnes)UrbanRiverAirSeaRailRoadNon-urbanFREIGHT TRANSPORT:NON-URBAN AND LAND TRANSPORT TO

246、DOMINATE FUTURE GROWTH 34 ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 On aggregate,the share of non-urban TTW emissions will decrease from 73%in 2015 to 66%in the Reshape+scenario in 2050.The percentage of urban TTW emissions would have an even greater proportional reduction under Res

247、hape+,accounting for only 61%of urban emissions by 2050.In 2015,worldwide TTW emissions are estimated to account for 77%of non-urban emissions but by 2050 WTT emissions would account for 42%of non-urban freight emissions.These results highlight the importance of coupling energy and transport policie

248、s to ensure better environmental outcomes.In particular,sub-regions like North and Central Asia with significant natural and energy resources can leverage improvements in the energy sector to reduce the environmental costs of transport.They should be able to minimise WTW emissions to an extent that

249、other regions cannot.PASSENGER TRANSPORT:CHANGES IN TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR FOR GROWING POPULATION ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 35 Passenger transport:Changes in travel behaviour for growing population The growth of urban population in many North and Central Asia countries is

250、likely to influence the way the population travels.Non-urban travel in the sub-region is dominated by rail and air.In the 2015 baseline scenario,it is estimated that each accounts for approximately 37%of the total passenger-kilometres travelled.Bus and other road transport are estimated to have a mo

251、dal share of 10%and 16%,respectively.Urban and non-urban passenger transport:Significant growth by 2030 Non-urban passenger travel in North and Central Asia decreased by 22%in pandemic-stricken 2020.Air travel was the most significantly impacted mode with passenger-kilometres decreasing by almost 50

252、%.There were also considerable decreases associated with bus and rail travel.Rail activity was 10%lower than the 2015 baseline and bus activity declined by 15%.Conversely,road travel increased by 5%.Figure Figure 1818.Non.Non-urban passenger demand by modeurban passenger demand by mode and and scena

253、rio scenario for North and for North and Central AsiaCentral Asia to 2050to 2050 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+,which refer to the three scenarios modelled,which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.This downtrend i

254、s not expected to continue in the following decades.In 2030,passenger-kilometres in 2030 would increase by 36%(compared to the 2015 baseline)under Recover,30%under Reshape and 25%under Reshape+.By 2050,they would all more than double the sub-regional 2015 passenger-kilometres.PASSENGER TRANSPORT:CHA

255、NGES IN TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR FOR GROWING POPULATION 36 ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Urban passenger kilometres also declined in 2020 but only by 2%and this is expected to grow in the coming decades.By 2030 urban passenger activity is expected to grow by up to 51%,compared t

256、o the 2015 baseline.Under the Reshape and Reshape+scenarios,this increase would be lower but is still projected to be above 40%.By 2050,the impact of the Reshape policies and trends will become even more apparent.Applying these measures would limit the increase in urban passenger-kilometres.Compared

257、 to the 2015 baseline,passenger demand would increase by 113%under Reshape and 110%under Reshape+.Under Recover,where many of these measures are not incorporated or incorporated much more conservatively,passenger-kilometres are projected to increase by 160%,reaching values 2.6 times larger than the

258、2015 baseline estimates.Figure Figure 1919.Urban passenger demand by mode.Urban passenger demand by mode andand scenario scenario for North and Centrafor North and Central Asia l Asia to 2050to 2050 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+,which refer to the three scen

259、arios modelled,which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.Active mobility and micromobility include walking,biking,scooter-sharing,and bike-sharing.Public transport includes rail,metro,bus,light rail transit(LRT),and bus rapid transit(BRT).Paratransit incl

260、udes informal buses and three-wheeled public transport.Shared vehicle includes motorcycle and carsharing.Private vehicle includes motorcycles and cars.Shared mobility includes taxis,ridesharing,and taxi buses.In the 2015 baseline scenario private vehicles are estimated to have the largest modal shar

261、es of urban passenger travel in the sub-region and account for 44%of the sub-regions passenger-kilometres.Public transport accounts for 29%of modal share and active mobility and micromobility represents 20%.The remaining modes maintain much smaller shares.Shared vehicles account for 1%,shared trips

262、2%and paratransit 4%of the remaining passenger-kilometres for the sub-region.The urban population of North and Central Asia is expected to transform the way it travels in the coming years.In particular,shared mobility is projected to grow under all three scenarios and by 2050 reach 17%under Reshape

263、and Reshape+.Under these two scenarios,the share of private vehicles is expected to drop PASSENGER TRANSPORT:CHANGES IN TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR FOR GROWING POPULATION ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 37 to 30%.Paratransit is also estimated to decrease to only 1%of the total passen

264、ger-kilometres.Active mobility and micromobility,and public transport should maintain their baseline modal share in 2050.Urban and non-urban passenger transport emissions:Disproportionate outcomes by mode Passenger travel emissions in North and Central Asia vary widely,depending on the scenarios app

265、lied.Under the 2015 baseline scenario,passenger travel contributed 48%of the regions 166 Mt CO2 equivalent TTW emissions.The majority of the passenger emissions were the result of non-urban travel and this non-urban passenger activity is projected to increase(see Figure 20).An anomaly to the pattern

266、 above occurred in 2020,when non-urban passenger emissions decreased by 22%(Figure 21).Most significantly,there was a 47%reduction in air travel emissions.Road transport was the only mode that increased its associated emissions.However,this growth was much smaller than initially projected and was on

267、ly 4%higher than 2015 levels.Looking ahead to 2030 and 2050,it becomes evident that without concerted,focused and ambitious policy interventions total non-urban transport emissions would increase in line with the demand.It is projected that total non-urban emissions will more than double under the b

268、usiness-as-usual Recover scenario by 2050.Despite similar demand levels,the impacts of the Reshape and Reshape+scenarios on emissions are significant compared to Recover.Under these two scenarios,non-urban emissions would be lower than the 2015 baseline and even the 2020 levels by 2050.The environme

269、ntal impacts of the transport activity greatly differ between the different modes.In the 2015 baseline scenario,air travel accounted for approximately 37%of the non-urban passenger kilometres but was responsible for 57%of the associated emissions.Under all analysed scenarios and for all years,air tr

270、avel is always responsible for a larger share of the emissions than its activity.Road transport activity,which has the second highest CO2 emissions,has a similar effect.Despite having a relatively small modal share(ranging between 16%and 22%),it always accounts for at least 35%of the emissions.Rail,

271、which has a significantly larger modal share,contributes much less to overall emissions.The emissions share for rail ranges between 4%and 6%of total emissions in North and Central Asia,despite estimated modal shares between 35%and 44%.There is also a mismatch between the activity and the emissions a

272、ssociated with different modes at the urban scale(Figure 22).Private vehicle emissions make up the majority of all urban emissions.In the 2015 baseline,the share of private vehicle emissions was 77%.In 2020,the share of private vehicle emissions increased to 85%due to decreased public-transport acti

273、vity as a result of the pandemic.The private vehicle is projected to continue to account for the lions share of emissions in coming years,even when there are significant reductions by 2050.PASSENGER TRANSPORT:CHANGES IN TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR FOR GROWING POPULATION 38 ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT

274、OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Figure Figure 2020.Total.Total tanktank-toto-wheel wheel emissions for emissions for freight and freight and passenger passenger transporttransport in North and Central Asiain North and Central Asia to 2050to 2050 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and R

275、eshape+,which refer to the three scenarios modelled,which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.Figure Figure 2121.NonNon-urban passenger urban passenger COCO2 2 emissions by modeemissions by mode andand scenario scenario for North and Central Asia for Nort

276、h and Central Asia to 2050to 2050 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+,which refer to the three scenarios modelled,which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.PASSENGER TRANSPORT:CHANGES IN TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR FOR GROWING POP

277、ULATION ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 39 Figure Figure 2222.Urban passenger.Urban passenger COCO2 2 emissions by modeemissions by mode andand scenario scenario for North and Central Asiafor North and Central Asia to 2050to 2050 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.

278、Recover,Reshape and Reshape+,which refer to the three scenarios modelled,which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.Active mobility and micromobility include walking,biking,scooter-sharing,and bike-sharing.Public transport includes rail,metro,bus,light rai

279、l transit(LRT),and bus rapid transit(BRT).Paratransit includes informal buses and three-wheeled public transport.Shared vehicle includes motorcycle and carsharing.Private vehicle includes motorcycles and cars.Shared mobility includes taxis,ridesharing,and taxi buses.Urban passenger accessibility,aff

280、ordability and modal dependency It is critical to better understand the potential accessibility of citizens in urban agglomerations,how costly it is to travel,and whether the system is unduly centred on a particular transport mode.People value how they use a transport system,i.e.their realised mobil

281、ity,but also the availability of alternatives,even if they are not chosen.An urban transport system where travelling is too costly in monetary or temporal terms,and where it is only possible to easily access opportunities if you use a particular transport mode will likely create unequitable outcomes

282、 and negatively impact the well-being of citizens.Three different indicators were developed for the urban passenger model:a proxy for geographic accessibility,mobility affordability and systemic modal dependency(Box 1).The aim is to establish how easily the city space can be accessed geographically

283、while also highlighting whether this access is likely to depend on a single mode and whether the access is affordable.The urban analysis of this study relied on functional urban areas(FUAs).Using population density and commuting patterns,the FUA defines the metropolitan regions around densely popula

284、ted cities whose labour market is highly integrated in a consistent manner worldwide(Dijkstra,Poelman and Veneri,2019).PASSENGER TRANSPORT:CHANGES IN TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR FOR GROWING POPULATION 40 ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Box Box 1 1.Urban Urban Passenger IndicatorsPass

285、enger Indicators Measuring geographic access Measuring geographic access The methodological approach for measuring access to the city is a proxy measure that estimates the time to reach an equivalent radius of the functional urban area(FUA)from the centre.The indicator is calculated as follows:=wher

286、e is the equivalent radius of the FUA and is the weighted average travel speed for that particular city.is given by weighing the average speed()by any mode,by the number of trips in a day by that same mode().This proxy measure is used because it was impossible to measure the accessibility to opportu

287、nities in the different analysed cities because of data limitations.Namely,given the scale of the model,the distribution of opportunities within each of the cities was not available.Measuring mobility affordabilityMeasuring mobility affordability The methodological approach for measuring transport a

288、ffordability in this report is an indicator that estimates the cost of the average mobility as a share of the GDP per capita.The following formula represents the indicator structure:=where is the total number of passenger-kilometres travelled per year by mode and is the associated average cost of tr

289、avelling a km by this mode.It is estimated based on 330 days of travel per year.Measuring systemic modal dependencyMeasuring systemic modal dependency This reports methodological approach for measuring modal dependency is an entropy-based measure that indicates the diversity and viability of modal a

290、lternatives.The following formula represents the indicator structure:=ln()ln()=1 where pk is the proportion of the total realised mobility performed with the kth transport mode type.In this study,available modes are grouped into five categories(k=5)of transport modes:non-motorised(including micromob

291、ility),private vehicles(including but not limited to cars),shared motorised,heavy public transport(i.e.trains,metros/subways,trams,bus rapid transit),light equivalent public transport.The index measures the viable transport alternatives available to travel in a particular city based on the current c

292、onditions and the estimated mobility and mode choice.It is an application of the entropy index used to measure land-use mix developed by Potoglou and Kanaroglou(2008),based on Cervero and Kockelman(1997).0 represents a dependency on a single transport mode,and 1 represents a uniform distribution bet

293、ween the transport modes.PASSENGER TRANSPORT:CHANGES IN TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR FOR GROWING POPULATION ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 41 North and Central Asia FUAs were grouped into four categories based on their population size:(1)small cities with populations below 100 000,(2

294、)medium-sized cities with populations ranging between 100 000 and 300 000,(3)medium-to-large cities with populations between 300 000 and 1 million,and(4)large cities with populations above 1 million inhabitants.The population of cities is not static.The ITF modelling framework includes a population

295、sub-model that estimates population trends(growth or reduction).As a result,the cities included in each of the four categories change over time.The same city may be in different groupings in different years if population changes have been sufficiently large.In terms of geospatial accessibility to th

296、e city,the smallest cities(fewer than 100 000 inhabitants)improve their public-transport travel times the least,gaining almost two and half minutes.This is expected given the scale of the cities.Less populated cities tend to have a smaller geographic scale,and the potential gains are therefore more

297、limited.The remaining cities gain more than ten minutes in their public-transport travel times on average.Cities between 300 000 and 1 000 000 inhabitants in the sub-region would gain the most in public-transport accessibility from the more ambitious Reshape+policies.A full description of these poli

298、cies can be found in Annex B,including transit-oriented development,public-transport prioritisations,and service improvements.Private vehicle travel times are expected to be minimally but negatively impacted.They are projected to remain fairly constant in North and Central Asia for the four types of

299、 urban agglomerations ranging from small to large cities.Cities with populations between 300 000 and 1 000 000 inhabitants would be the cities where private vehicle travel times would increase the most Still,the change in travel times would remain below two minutes by 2050.The changes are never expe

300、cted to exceed one minute in the remaining city types.Figure Figure 2323.Improvement ofImprovement of publicpublic-transport travel times to reach the city limits from the transport travel times to reach the city limits from the centrecentre in 2050 in 2050 under the under the Reshape+Reshape+scenar

301、io compared to the scenario compared to the RecoverRecover scenario in North and Central Asiascenario in North and Central Asia Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover and Reshape+,which refer to two scenarios modelled.Reshape+represents more ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise tra

302、nsport.PASSENGER TRANSPORT:CHANGES IN TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR FOR GROWING POPULATION 42 ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 The expected improvements in public-transport travel times with only negligible impacts on the sub-regions private vehicle travel times are a very positive omen

303、.This finding is notable because the cities are expected to increase in size proportionally to the population growth.A major reason that this is possible is the low network capacity usage current estimated and projected in the region.Better urban policies are expected to decrease congestion3 over ti

304、me.On average,the proportion of the network capacity is never above 20%and by 2050 it would be below 5%.While the results highlight that congestion is not a glaring problem in the region,this is still an important indicator for the liveability of cities.Congestion has many negative externalities tha

305、t the most disadvantaged groups in society often bear.These results also highlight the importance of focusing urban investments towards public-transport development and not towards infrastructure improvements related to road expansions.The road network is currently well below its capacity and is exp

306、ected to remain well within its capacity range in the coming decades.Furthermore,the urban transport systems of North and Central Asia are not particularly reliant on a single mode.The average modal dependency is in line with the rest of the world.There are no significant differences in the modal de

307、pendence among the three scenarios analysed.Over the analysed time frame the changes to modal dependence are much more significant,becoming slightly more diverse under all scenarios by 2050.This is particularly visible in the largest cities,where the entropy index is expected to increase by approxim

308、ately 13%in cities with over 1 000 000 inhabitants.In these largest cities,travel is expected to become significantly less affordable by 2050.CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY INSIGHTS ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 43 Conclusions and policy insights Transport will continue to be a

309、critical sector for any well-functioning society able to achieve sustainable goals in North and Central Asia.One of the sub-regions notable collective challenges will be to improve its citizens well-being while addressing decarbonisation to meet the countries Paris Agreement goals.The efficient move

310、ment of people and goods within cities,across regions,and between countries is vital to decarbonising transport as the sub-region experiences population and economic growth over the next 30 years.These growth trends will accompany an increase in urbanisation as cities become larger and higher shares

311、 of people begin living in them.There have been significant disruptions and restrictions in the flow of people and goods due to the Covid-19 pandemic.Landlocked countries and regions that were more reliant on overland border crossings were significantly more impacted by the sanitary measures put in

312、place at a global level to limit the spread of Covid-19.However,there were also some opportunities in addition to these negative impacts.Many planned changes of practices or in the process of changing were accelerated in the sub-region.Soft measures and procedures implemented during the pandemic,inc

313、luding increased digitalisation,can have significant economic and environmental impacts in the long term.The policy directions and the measures implemented in the coming years will broadly define the decarbonisation trends of the following decades.This section highlights this reports main insights f

314、or policy makers to support the sub-regions decarbonisation efforts.Improve connectivity without increasing carbon intensityImprove connectivity without increasing carbon intensity Connectivity continues to be a policy priority for many North and Central Asia governments.Improved connectivity has hi

315、storically been coupled with higher carbonisation,therefore,it is essential to decouple carbonisation and improved connectivity as trade continues to grow in the region.Lower costs and temporal improvements have tended to encourage more and further travel.As the transition to a more decarbonised wor

316、ld occurs,it is vital that economic growth does not come with an excessive environmental cost.Further carbonisation will likely result in significant negative consequences for the sub-regions population and counterbalance the positive outcomes sought by better connectivity.Transport demand was reduc

317、ed in the sub-region during the pandemic.However,this period of decline is expected to be followed by significant growth in the coming decades.In all analysed scenarios,the tonne-kilometres in the sub-region would be at least twice as high as in 2015.Even when considering a more decarbonised world u

318、nder the Reshape and Reshape+scenarios,freight demand is expected to be even higher than in the business-as-usual Recover scenario.In particular,the growth under the Reshape scenarios would accelerate after 2030.Therefore,the economic and transport pandemic recovery must be aligned with sustainable

319、development goals to ensure this growth is environmentally sustainable.Target regional linkages and sustainable growth in connectivity strategiesTarget regional linkages and sustainable growth in connectivity strategies Regional development is an indispensable component to sustainable growth in Nort

320、h and Central Asia.The sub-region faces inherent global connectivity disadvantages due to its vast distances and many landlocked countries.In particular,the implementation of carbon pricing and taxes,and other distance-based measures in global markets will impact low connectivity regions like North

321、and Central Asia to a greater extent than well-connected regions since the cost to reach global markets is likely to increase.Therefore,CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY INSIGHTS 44 ITF NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 increasing regional connectivity and trade regionalisation to minimise

322、 these additional costs will be crucial to mitigate geographical challenges.North and Central Asia has a corridor-based approach to transport development due to its geographical position and many countries landlocked nature.The sub-regions countries often serve as transit between East Asia and Europ

323、e.As distance-based charges increase in the coming years,transport infrastructure investment should not encourage transit traffic.Transport policy should advance the connectivity of the sub-regions economy to the rest of the world,particularly connectivity between the countries that make up the sub-

324、region.Relying less on transport transit operations and further regionalising trade will improve the resiliency of the region,potentially reducing the local impacts of foreign crises on the countries in North and Central Asia.Trade regionalisation and increased regional connectivity would provide th

325、e basis for more sustainable trade and assist in the decoupling of improved connectivity and carbonisation.Complement connectivity improvements with initiatives to decarbonise fuelComplement connectivity improvements with initiatives to decarbonise fuel production and energy sourcesproduction and en

326、ergy sources Policies that decrease the environmental impact of road transport are essential as North and Central Asia governments encourage economic growth to improve the well-being of their citizens and meet decarbonisation ambitions.The sub-region relies heavily on inland transport and the share

327、of road-based emissions is much higher than road-based activity in both urban and non-urban environments.The sub-region must prioritise regional connectivity while more efficiently accessing markets worldwide to decarbonise successfully.Effective regional policies could reduce total transport emissi

328、ons by almost 60%by 2050.This will entail infrastructure development,fleet renewal,fuel efficiency standards and improved multimodal operations.Truck and vehicle fleets should be renewed,stringent fuel economy standards should be enacted,and new technologies,including electrification of segments of

329、these fleets,should be considered.These measures would ensure that less-polluting vehicles are used in the sub-region,thus reducing the tank-to-wheel emissions associated with transport activity.However,this is not the only policy lever available to policy makers in the region.There is also an excel

330、lent opportunity for the sub-region to leverage their rich energy resources to address the emissions associated with the well-to-tank component of energy production and consumption.The sub-region can maximise the transport sectors decarbonisation by combining energy and transport operations measures

331、.Prioritise service improvements and landPrioritise service improvements and land-use development that encourages publicuse development that encourages public-transport usetransport use Transport impacts go well beyond CO2 emissions in cities.Exposure to local pollutants,particulate matter,and other

332、 transport externalities like noise are complex issues that significantly impact citizens well-being and health(e.g.Feigin et al.,2016;Munzel et al.,2021).Additionally,transport infrastructure allocation and use in urban areas is fraught with tensions,and these decisions significantly impact the acc

333、essibility that the system provides and limits how citizens travel in cities(ITF,2022a).Focusing on more inclusive transit-oriented-development and encouraging land-use development that encourages walkability at the local level while maintaining accessibility to opportunities through public-transport development will create fairer outcomes for travellers representing the growing demand for transpo