1、RESEARCH 研究报告 GREATER CHINA HOTEL REPORT 2018 大中华酒店报告 2018 TABLE 1 Economic indicators PeriodBeijingShanghaiGuangzhouHong KongMacauTaipei GDP growth (YoY) 20186.6%6.6%6.2%3.0%4.7%2.6% GDP per capita2018RMB140,748RMB135,305 -HK$381,870MOP666,893NT$777,560 Retail sales value (billion)2018RMB1174.7RMB1

2、266.8RMB926.5HK$485.2MOP76.8NT$4750 Retail sales value growth (YoY) 20182.7%7.9%7.6%8.8%15.9%3.3% Foreign direct investment growth (YoY) 2018 -3.9% (1H17) 1.7%5.1% -8.1% (2017) -7.3%52.3% Unemployemnt rate20181.4%3.6%-2.8%1.8%3.7% Inflation20182.5%1.6%2.4%2.4%2.9%0.1% Source: Local statistics depart

3、ments / Knight Frank Research OVERVIEW Among all major cities in the Greater China region, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Macau had the best hotel performance in 2018. The Shanghai hotel market reached another peak since the World Expo in 2010, with a surge in hotel demand, mainly because of the China Inte

4、rnational Import Expo. Thanks to the record-breaking number of tourism arrivals and increase in overnight visitors to Hong Kong, both the hotel occupancy rate and the Average Daily Rate of hotels in the city enjoyed positive growth. Macau recorded 7.2% YoY growth in the number of international overn

5、ight visitors, which helped boost local hotel demand. Chinas hotel market is still among the most important markets for global operators. With the governments initiatives to boost domestic consumption, demand for five-star hotels in the country will remain strong and continue to enjoy robust growth

6、in the coming years. It is crucial for hotel operators to adapt to the rapidly changing domestic consumption trends.” DAVID JI Director, Head of Research together with a slight increase in the average length of stay in Taiwan. Tourist spending for the year is expected to grow positively for the firs

7、t time after three consecutive years of decline. The number of visitors from ASEAN countries provided important momentum for the growth of the tourism market, reaching 2.61 million in 2018, up 14% YoY. Chinas tourism industry is growing fast on the back of rising disposable income and middle-class c

8、onsumption upgrading. Coupled with the governments efforts to boost local consumption to rebalance Chinas economy by putting it on a more consumption-driven growth path, and major strategies, such as the Belt and Road Initiative and Greater Bay Area Plan, demand for five-star hotels in the country i

9、s expected to remain robust and grow steadily in the coming years. Nonetheless, 2019 is set to be a year of change and challenge for Chinas hospitality industry. Global economic uncertainties will continue to exert downward pressure on the Chinese economy and affect consumer sentiment. We expect to

10、see a more competitive environment for Chinas hospitality market in 2019. of Chinas economic transformation and consumption upgrading, the rapid development of domestic tourism will result in increasing demand for hotels. In 2019, Beijings second international airport and the Universal Studios Beiji

11、ng theme park will open, and the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing will bring more travellers to Beijing. Therefore, the hotel market is expected to experience a development boom in the next few years. Shanghai enjoyed robust development of its tourism industry in 2018, with an increase in the number

12、of domestic and international visitors. The successful debut of the first China International Import Expo in November 2018 in Shanghai attracted more than 800,000 visitors to the city, so the hotels in the Hongqiao CBD and the surrounding areas enjoyed a surge in demand. With the huge development po

13、tential of the hotel market, hotel operators and investors remain optimistic about the market. The Shanghai hotel market reached another peak since the World Expo in 2010, with 17 luxury hotels (3,902 rooms) opening in 2018. Underpinned by the opening of new theme parks and large-scale events, we ex

14、pect the hotel industry in Shanghai to continue to flourish in 2019. In 2018, Guangzhou experienced steady economic growth, with GDP growing by 6.3% YoY to RMB1,670.8 billion in the first three quarters. The performance of the hotel sector was close to that of 2017. Both the average daily rate (ADR)

15、 and the occupancy rate remained stable. The coming year will see a remarkable increase in the supply of five-star hotels, with over 1,000 hotel rooms added to the market. However, the rapid growth in new supply will put pressure on Guangzhous hotel market, suppressing both the ADR and the occupancy

16、 rate. In the mid to long term, with the completion of more infrastructure, including Guangzhous second airport, and the metro line and Express Railway network expansion in Guangzhou, Dongguan and Foshan, demand for five-star hotels will likely trend up. The record-breaking tourism arrivals in Hong

17、Kong, reaching over 65 million (+11.4% YoY) in 2018, has provided impetus for growth of the hotel sector in Hong Kong. As the number of overnight visitor arrivals has grown, the ADR and occupancy rate of hotels has increased. In 2019, High Tariff A hotel supply is expected to surge, with 14 hotels s

18、cheduled to open, providing 2,650 rooms. The surge in supply, together with CHART 1 International overnight visitor arrivals (2018) Million people CHART 2 Five-star hotel stock (2018) Thousand rooms CHART 3 Five-star hotel room rate (2018) ADR (US$) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 BeijingShanghaiGuangzhou Hon

19、g KongMacauTaipei 3 RESEARCHGREATER CHINA HOTEL REPORT 2018 BEIJING Overview Beijings tourist arrivals improved in 2018. According to the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics, inbound tourist arrivals in 2018 increased 2% year-on-year (YoY) to 4 million which include 3.39 million foreign visitors,

20、 up 2.3% YoY and 0.61 million visitors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, up 0.1% YoY. The growth was mainly due to a pick-up in arrivals from the top three source markets Korea (+5.2% YoY), Singapore (+10.2% YoY) and US (+7.0% YoY). Supply and demand In 2018, three new luxury hotels opened in Beijin

21、g, adding 814 rooms in total. On 30 June, the MUJI Hotel opened in Beijing with 42 guest rooms. Located in Beijing Fun, it is the second MUJI Hotel in the world. The Beijing Marriott Hotel Changping opened with 424 guest rooms in Changping District on 28 July. Hyatt Hotels Corporations Hyatt Regency

22、 Beijing Wangjing opened on 30 October, adding 348 rooms to the Beijing hotel market. At the end of 2018, Beijing had 40,156 luxury hotel rooms. Benefiting from the increase in the number of visitor arrivals, as well as active business and conference activity, Beijings luxury hotel market improved g

23、radually. In 2018, the occupancy rate of five-star hotels increased 1.5 percentage points (PPT) YoY to 69.7%, while the Average Daily Rate (ADR) of five-star hotels grew 3.7% YoY to RMB838. Outlook In 2019, three luxury hotels with a total of 264 hotel rooms are scheduled to open: the Mandarin Orien

24、tal Qianmen (75 rooms), The PuXuan Hotel and Spa (116 rooms), and the Mandarin Oriental Wangfujing (73 rooms). In 2019, the number of luxury hotel rooms in Beijing is expected to reach 40,420. The Beijing hotel market is facing a number of challenges. Newly opened hotels have intensified competition

25、, so the overall occupancy rate may drop. Also, the protracted Sino-US trade conflict will have a detrimental impact on trading activity in China, which, in turn, will reduce hotel demand from business travellers. In tandem, pressure on the Chinese economy may have a negative impact on tourism and t

26、he hotel industry. However, the Chinese government is encouraging more domestic consumption to boost the economy, such as promoting domestic tourism by cutting ticket prices for state- owned tourist sites. These incentives may attract more tourists to Beijing, thus benefiting the hotel market. Both

27、the occupancy rate and ADR of five-star hotels are expected to remain stable in 2019. In the mid to long term, we foresee a rosy picture for the hotel industry in Beijing. In the context of Chinas economic transformation and consumption upgrading, the rapid development of domestic tourism will resul

28、t in increasing demand for hotels. The hotel market will also be buttressed by new infrastructure projects and tourist attractions. In 2019, Beijings second international airport and the Universal Studios Beijing theme park will open, and the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing will bring more traveller

29、s to Beijing. Therefore, the hotel market is expected to experience a development boom in the next few years. Source: Beijing Tourism Bureau / Knight Frank Research CHART 4 International overnight visitor arrivals Million peopleYOY growth (%) -2 0 2 4 6 8 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2

30、009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 International overnight visitors YOY growth Source: Beijing Tourism Bureau / Knight Frank Research CHART 5 Five-star hotel stock No of hotel rooms 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

31、2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Beijing Tourism Bureau / Knight Frank Research CHART 6 Five-star hotel performance ADR (RMB)Occupancy rate (%) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Av

32、erage Daily Rate Hotel occupancy rate 4 SHANGHAI Overview According to the Shanghai Municipal Tourism Administration, in 2018, Shanghai received approximately 8.94 million international tourists, an increase of 2.4% year on year (YoY), of which 6.86 million were overseas visitors, up 2.2% YoY, and 2

33、.08 million were visitors from Hongkong, Macao and Taiwan, up 3% YoY. In the convention and exhibition segment, the China International Import Expo (CIIE) had a successful debut in November. The worlds first import-themed national-level expo attracted more than 800,000 visitors to Shanghai and boost

34、ed hotel demand in the Hongqiao CBD and surrounding areas. Regarding the tourism market, a new tourist attraction, Shanghai Haichang Ocean Park, opened in November in Dishui Lake. Known as the first large-scale aquatic theme park in Shanghai, Shanghai Haichang Ocean Park received 300,000 visitors in

35、 its first month. Supply and demand The Shanghai hotel market reached another peak since the World Expo in 2010, with a total of 17 luxury hotels (3,902 rooms) opening in 2018. At the end of 2018, there were 36,014 luxury guest rooms in Shanghai, up 12% YoY. Marriott Internationals co-brand EDITION

36、opened the Shanghai EDITION in July 2018. Located on Nanjing East Road, the 145-room Shanghai EDITON is EDITIONs second hotel in China, following the opening of its first hotel in Sanya, Hainan. Indigo, an IHG brand, opened two hotels in the second half of 2018: Hotel Indigo Shanghai Hongqiao (228 r

37、ooms, opened in August 2018), in the Hongqiao CBD, and Hotel Indigo Shanghai Jingan (119 rooms, opened in October), in the Shanghai Railway Station area. In November 2018, Intercontinental Shanghai Wonderland opened in Songjiang Sheshan National Tourist and Holiday Resort. Built on the cliffs of a f

38、ormer quarry with 336 rooms, it is the lowest-altitude luxury hotel in the world. In 2018, the Average Daily Rate (ADR) of five-star hotels in Shanghai increased 2.3% YoY to RMB982. The average occupancy rate dropped 2.0 percentage points (PPT) YoY to 69.3% because of the huge amount of new supply.

39、Outlook Six luxury hotels with no less than 1,900 rooms will open in 2019, including the landmark Westbund Hotel Shanghai (219 rooms), in Xuhui Binjiang, J Hotel (258 rooms), in Shanghai Tower, and JW Marriott Marquis Shanghai (500 rooms), on the riverside of Lujiazui. The number of luxury hotel roo

40、ms in Shanghai will reach approximately 37,900 in 2019. Underpinned by the opening of new theme parks and large-scale events, we expect the hotel industry in Shanghai to continue to flourish in 2019. Several theme parks will open in Shanghai in 2019, including Winterland, in Lingang, Pudong, and Dre

41、amCity Phase Two, adjacent to Intercontinental Shanghai Wonderland. The second CIIE will be held in Shanghai in November and is expected to attract a large number of tourists and business travelers to the city. The ADR of five-star hotels in Shanghai is expected to increase 2% YoY to RMB1,001 and th

42、e average occupancy rate is expected to rise to 71% by the end of 2019. According to the government plan, Shanghai will be built into a world- famous tourist destination, with a target of 360 million domestic tourists and 10 million international tourists, and tourism revenue of over RMB600 billion

43、by 2020. With the increasing number of tourists coming to Shanghai, the hotel market will benefit from the huge amount of supply and is expected to maintain rapid development in the future. Source: Shanghai Municipal Tourism Administration / Knight Frank Research CHART 7 International overnight visi

44、tor arrivals Million peopleYOY growth (%) -2 0 2 4 6 8 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 International overnight visitors YOY growth Source: Shanghai Municipal Tourism Administration / Knight Frank Research CHART 8 Five-star hotel stock No

45、 of hotel rooms 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 2004 2005 2002 2003 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Shanghai Municipal Tourism Administration / Knight Frank Research CHART 9 Five-star hotel performance ADR (RMB)Occupancy rate (%) 20 4

46、0 60 80 100 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0 Average Daily Rate Hotel occupancy rate 5 RESEARCHGREATER CHINA HOTEL REPORT 2018 Source: Guangzhou Tourism Bureau / Knight Frank Research CHART 10 International overnight visit

47、or arrivals Million peopleYOY growth (%) -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E International overnight visitors YOY growth Source: Guangzhou Tourism Bureau / Knight Frank Research CHART 11 Five-star hotel stock No of hotel ro

48、oms 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Knight Frank Research CHART 12 Five-star hotel performance ADR (RMB)Occupancy rate (%) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 20

49、05 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Average Daily Rate Hotel occupancy rate GUANGZHOU Overview In 2018, Guangzhou experienced steady economic growth, but during its economic transition, the citys indicators have grown slower than those at the national and provincial levels. Guangzhous GDP grew by 6.3% year on year (YoY) to RMB1,670.8 billion in the first three quarters of 2018. Close to 70 million passengers passed through the Baiyun International Airport T2 terminal in the year ending 30 April 2018, an increase of 6% YoY. From J