1、ITF Southeast Asia Transport Outlook Case-Specific Policy AnalysisCase-Specific Policy AnalysisITF Southeast Asia Transport Outlook The International Transport Forum The International Transport Forum is an intergovernmental organisation with 63 member countries.It acts as a think tank for transport

2、policy and organises the Annual Summit of transport ministers.ITF is the only global body that covers all transport modes.The ITF is politically autonomous and administratively integrated with the OECD.The ITF works for transport policies that improves peoples lives.Our mission is to foster a deeper

3、 understanding of the role of transport in economic growth,environmental sustainability and social inclusion and to raise the public profile of transport policy.The ITF organises global dialogue for better transport.We act as a platform for discussion and pre-negotiation of policy issues across all

4、transport modes.We analyse trends,share knowledge and promote exchange among transport decision-makers and civil society.The ITFs Annual Summit is the worlds largest gathering of transport ministers and the leading global platform for dialogue on transport policy.The Members of the Forum are:Albania

5、,Armenia,Argentina,Australia,Austria,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Belgium,Bosnia and Herzegovina,Bulgaria,Canada,Chile,China(Peoples Republic of),Colombia,Croatia,Czech Republic,Denmark,Estonia,Finland,France,Georgia,Germany,Greece,Hungary,Iceland,India,Ireland,Israel,Italy,Japan,Kazakhstan,Korea,Latvia,Liech

6、tenstein,Lithuania,Luxembourg,Malta,Mexico,Republic of Moldova,Mongolia,Montenegro,Morocco,the Netherlands,New Zealand,North Macedonia,Norway,Poland,Portugal,Romania,Russian Federation,Serbia,Slovak Republic,Slovenia,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Tunisia,Turkey,Ukraine,the United Arab Emirates,the United

7、 Kingdom,the United States and Uzbekistan.International Transport Forum 2 rue Andr Pascal F-75775 Paris Cedex 16 contactitf-oecd.org www.itf-oecd.org Case-Specific Policy Analysis Reports The ITFs Case-Specific Policy Analysis series presents topical studies on specific issues carried out by the ITF

8、 in agreement with local institutions.Any findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Transport Forum or the OECD.Neither the OECD,ITF nor the authors guarantee the accuracy of any data or other info

9、rmation contained in this publication and accept no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use.This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the ITF.This document,as well as any data and map included herein,are without prejudice to the status of or sover

10、eignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Cite this work as:ITF(2022),“ITF Southeast Asia Transport Outlook”,International Transport Forum Policy Papers,No.103,OECD Publishing,Paris.Acknowledgements This repo

11、rt was written by Orla McCarthy of the International Transport Forum(ITF).Contributions were made by ITF colleagues Luis Martinez,Vatsalya Sohu and John Pritchard,and the Transport Division at the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(ESCAP),Azhar Jaimurzina Ducrest,

12、Kuancheng Huang and Sandeep Jain.The report was drafted as a part of the“ITF Transport Outlook Special Issues for Asia:Policy Analysis and Implementation”project.The project was funded by the United Nations ESCAP as part of the United Nations Development Account projects on Transport and trade conne

13、ctivity in the age of pandemics:Contactless,seamless and collaborative UN solutions and“Promoting a shift towards sustainable freight transport in the Asia-Pacific region”.This report is part of a special edition series of the ITF Transport Outlook.Each looks at a different sub-region in Asia.Each r

14、eport draws on the modelling framework and outputs from the ITF Transport Outlook 2021,desk research and insights from the ITF-UNESCAP joint capacity building workshop held virtually in October 2021 and the special event on“Transport Connectivity and COVID-19 Pandemic:Pathways for Greater Resilience

15、 and Sustainability”,organised during the ESCAP Fourth Ministerial Conference on Transport from 14 to 17 December 2021.The project was co-ordinated by Wei-Shiuen Ng(ITF),who,along with Mario Barreto(ITF),also contributed to the development and the finalisation of the draft.Jari Kauppila(ITF)provided

16、 a review of the document.Edwina Collins(independent)edited the report.FOREWORD 4 ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Foreword The project ITF Transport Outlook Special Issues for Asia:Policy Analysis and Implementation was developed jointly by the International Transport Forum and th

17、e United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(ESCAP).Both organisations have long collaborated closely and grant each other reciprocal observer status.Funded by ESCAP and carried out by the ITF,this project marks a new high point in this productive partnership.The reports

18、of this joint project will help member countries of both organisations to understand Asias transport future better.How will demand for passenger mobility and freight transport evolve in the coming decades?What does this mean for transport-related emissions?And what impact could potential disruptions

19、 have?The Covid-19 pandemic has underlined the case for much more resilient transport systems,which require new and different transport policies.Enhancing governments capacity to identify critical differences in demand projections for passenger and freight transport between countries in different su

20、b-regions in Asia and the rest of the world will help create a sound basis for necessary policy shifts.The sub-regions covered by the project are experiencing rapid changes in transport demand,the evolution of mobility services and the provision of transport infrastructure.A primary objective of the

21、 work is to provide policy insights that help address the specific challenges in each sub-region and notably improve the sustainability of transport systems.To support the implementation of sustainable transport pathways,the project included capacity-building and training sessions for each sub-regio

22、n.The analyses also serve as input to priority actions on connectivity in the next phase of the ESCAP Asia-Pacific Regional Action Programme on Sustainable Transport Connectivity.I look forward to building further on this excellent example of results-oriented collaboration between two leading interg

23、overnmental organisations in the service of their members.Young Tae Kim Secretary-General,International Transport Forum TABLE OF CONTENTS ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 5 Table of contents Executive summaryExecutive summary .7 7 Pathways to decarbonise transport in SouthPathways

24、to decarbonise transport in Southe east Asia by 2050ast Asia by 2050 .9 9 Reshaping transport as economies developReshaping transport as economies develop .1212 The human dimension:Balancing population growth and climate action.12 The economic dimension:Planning for growth.15 Selected transport deve

25、lopments in Southeast Asia.16 Shaping tomorrows transport:Strategic and policy priorities in the sub-region.19 The trade dimension:Addressing connectivity gaps.23 Freight transport:Planning for significant growthFreight transport:Planning for significant growth .2828 Non-urban freight:Encouraging su

26、stainable transport for movement of goods.30 Urban freight:Improving efficiencies and fleets.33 Passenger transport:Sustainable transport for growing demandPassenger transport:Sustainable transport for growing demand .3636 Urban passenger transport:Cleaner vehicle fleets crucial for reducing emissio

27、ns.37 Non-urban passenger transport:Increasing low-emission vehicles and fuels.43 Conclusions and policy insightsConclusions and policy insights.4747 NotesNotes .5151 ReferencesReferences .5252 Annex A.Annex A.ITF Transport Outlook 2021ITF Transport Outlook 2021 modelling scenarios:modelling scenari

28、os:RecoverRecover,ReshapeReshape,Reshape+Reshape+.5858 Annex B.Annex B.Freight transport scenario specifications fromFreight transport scenario specifications from the the ITF Transport Outlook 2021ITF Transport Outlook 2021 .6060 Annex C.Urban passeAnnex C.Urban passenger transport scenario specifi

29、cations from nger transport scenario specifications from the the ITF Transport Outlook 2021ITF Transport Outlook 2021 .6363 Annex D.NonAnnex D.Non-urban passenger transport scenario specifications fromurban passenger transport scenario specifications from the the ITF TranspoITF Transport Outlook 202

30、1rt Outlook 2021 .6666 TABLE OF CONTENTS 6 ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Figures Figure 1.MajFigure 1.Major pandemicor pandemic-recovery concerns of freight authorities in Asia and the Pacificrecovery concerns of freight authorities in Asia and the PacificError!Bookmark not defi

31、ned.Figure 2.Summary of the three ITF Transport Outlook 2021 scenariosFigure 2.Summary of the three ITF Transport Outlook 2021 scenarios .1010 Figure 3.Population projections of SouthFigure 3.Population projections of Southe east Asia countries to 2050ast Asia countries to 2050 .1313 Figure 4.Nation

32、al population by age(%)in SouthFigure 4.National population by age(%)in Southe east Asia countries,2020 and 2050ast Asia countries,2020 and 2050 .1414 Figure 5.Population living in urban areas in SouthFigure 5.Population living in urban areas in Southe east Asia countries,1950ast Asia countries,1950

33、-20502050 .1515 Figure 6 World Economic Forum transport infrastructure scores for Figure 6 World Economic Forum transport infrastructure scores for nine Southnine Southe east Asiast Asia countriesa countries.1717 Figure 7 Impact of distances on reachinFigure 7 Impact of distances on reaching global

34、centres of production and consumptiong global centres of production and consumption .2424 FigurFigure 8.Connectivity gap for Southe 8.Connectivity gap for Southe east Asia countries compared with the Netherlandsast Asia countries compared with the Netherlands .2626 Figure 9.Freight activity for surf

35、ace and domestic air and sea movementsFigure 9.Freight activity for surface and domestic air and sea movements in Southin Southe east Asia to 2050ast Asia to 2050 .2828 Figure 10.Indexed change in freiFigure 10.Indexed change in freight tonneght tonne-kilometres by region under a kilometres by regio

36、n under a RecoverRecover scenarioscenario for Southfor Southe east Asia to 2050ast Asia to 2050 .2929 Figure 11.Indexed change in freight tonneFigure 11.Indexed change in freight tonne-kilometres by region under a kilometres by region under a Reshape+Reshape+scenarioscenario for Southfor Southe east

37、 Asia to 2050ast Asia to 2050 .2929 Figure 12.NonFigure 12.Non-urban freight demand by mode and scenario for Southurban freight demand by mode and scenario for Southe east Asia to 2050ast Asia to 2050 .3131 Figure 13.NonFigure 13.Non-urban freight tankurban freight tank-toto-wheel emissions by scena

38、rio for Southwheel emissions by scenario for Southe east Asiaast Asia to 2050to 2050 .3232 Figure 14.Share of tankFigure 14.Share of tank-toto-wheel emissionswheel emissions for nonfor non-urban freight by mode and scenariourban freight by mode and scenario for Southfor Southe east Asia to 2050ast A

39、sia to 2050 .3333 Figure 15.Total urban freight tonneFigure 15.Total urban freight tonne-kilometres by scenario for Southkilometres by scenario for Southe east Asia to 2050ast Asia to 2050 .3434 Figure 16.Urban freight COFigure 16.Urban freight CO2 2 emissions by scenario for Southemissions by scena

40、rio for Southe east Asia to 2050ast Asia to 2050 .3535 Figure 17.Passenger activity in SouthFigure 17.Passenger activity in Southe east Asia by scenario to 2050ast Asia by scenario to 2050 .3636 Figure 18.Total tankFigure 18.Total tank-toto-wheel emissions for freight and passenger wheel emissions f

41、or freight and passenger transporttransport by scenario in Southby scenario in Southe east Asia to 2050ast Asia to 2050 .3737 FigFigure 19.Urban passenger demand by mode and scenario for Southure 19.Urban passenger demand by mode and scenario for Southe east Asia to 2050ast Asia to 2050 .3939 Figure

42、 20.Urban passenger emissions by mode and scenario for SouthFigure 20.Urban passenger emissions by mode and scenario for Southe east Asia to 2050ast Asia to 2050 .4040 Figure 21.Difference in average travel time across the radius of a city in 2050 under the Figure 21.Difference in average travel tim

43、e across the radius of a city in 2050 under the Reshape+Reshape+scenario scenario compared to the compared to the RecoverRecover scenario in Souscenario in Souththe east Asia,by car and public transportast Asia,by car and public transport .4242 Figure 22.Figure 22.NonNon-urban passenger demand by mo

44、de and scenario for Southurban passenger demand by mode and scenario for Southe east Asia to 2050ast Asia to 2050 .4444 Figure 23.NonFigure 23.Non-urban passenger emissions by mode and scenario for Southurban passenger emissions by mode and scenario for Southe east Asia to 2050ast Asia to 2050 .4646

45、 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 7 Executive summary What we did This report provides recommendations on how to support Southeast Asias strategy of economic growth through sustainable and resilient transport connectivity.The policy insights are based on the model

46、-outputs of three policy scenarios for future transport demand and the associated carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions in Southeast Asia to 2050.The baseline scenario(Recover)assumes government policies return to business-as-usual after the pandemic.Two other scenarios(Reshape,Reshape+)assume governments ad

47、opt more ambitious policies after the pandemic.Under the Reshape+scenario,governments additionally leverage the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic for transport decarbonisation.The work forms part of the programme ITF Transport Outlook Special Issues for Asia:Policy Analysis and Implementation,carried

48、 out by the ITF in co-operation with the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(UNESCAP).What we found The economies of Southeast Asia are growing and connectivity improvements are planned to accompany this growth.This economic growth and increased connectivity is exp

49、ected to be accompanied by increased transport activity.The countries of Southeast Asia have a connectivity gap when compared to a highly connected economy in Europe.Some of this is down to physical distance between origin countries and destination markets,but there also appears to be a role for pol

50、icy to play in reducing costs incurred at border crossings.Freight demand in Southeast Asia will grow by nearly 80%between 2015 and 2030,under the scenarios modelled.Between 2015 and 2050,total tonne-kilometres in the sub-region could more than triple.As connectivity improves and freight volumes gro

51、w,strategies for Southeast Asia should consider how to manage this growth sustainably.Measures targeting shipping will be essential,as it accounts for approximately 90%of freight tonne-kilometres in the sub-region.However,road freight is far more carbon-intensive,making efforts to reduce the emissio

52、ns from road-freight vehicles critical as well.Demand for passenger transport in Southeast Asia will also grow considerably.Under all three scenarios,total passenger-kilometres will increase by a factor of at least 3.5.The continuing urbanisation of the sub-region drives part of this growth.Urban se

53、ttings offer many opportunities to reduce emissions with policies that leverage cities density and other characteristics.Such measures,including more strategic and integrated planning,can lower CO2 emissions and make urban areas more liveable.Non-urban passenger transport,including,sea,aviation,rail

54、 and road-based modes,will be the most difficult to decarbonise.By 2050,non-urban is expected to be the highest-emitting transport sector.All scenarios yield this result,including those with ambitious decarbonisation policies in place.Due to the nature of non-urban transport,there are also fewer pol

55、icy measures available to policy makers to reduce emissions without significantly reducing demand.Against this backdrop,emissions reductions for non-urban transport will largely depend on a successful transition to low-and zero-carbon technologies.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8 ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUT

56、LOOK OECD/ITF 2022 What we recommend Design measures that mitigate the rise of transport emissions as demand grows in SouthDesign measures that mitigate the rise of transport emissions as demand grows in Southe ea ast Asia and st Asia and connectivity improvesconnectivity improves Improving connecti

57、vity to support economic growth is a strategic priority for economies in Southeast Asia.However,both can be associated with increased transport activity and therefore rising emissions.More ambitious policy measures will be required to prevent conflicts with other public policy objectives,such as the

58、 Paris Agreement or the UN Sustainable Development Goals.The Reshape and Reshape+scenarios indicate what such ambitious policies can achieve.Target maritime transport as a critical sector for decarbonising freight transport in SouthTarget maritime transport as a critical sector for decarbonising fre

59、ight transport in Southe east Asiaast Asia Maritime freight will account for approximately 90%of tonne-kilometres carried in Southeast Asia and without ambitious policies to decarbonise the sector,emissions due to shipping are expected to grow by 76%by 2050.The maritime policies reflected in the mor

60、e ambitious scenarios(Reshape,Reshape+)could cut emissions by approximately half between 2015 and 2050.Improved vehicle technologies will be important for decarbonising road transport as demand increasesImproved vehicle technologies will be important for decarbonising road transport as demand increa

61、ses Road transports share of emissions is far greater than its share of transport volumes.Achieving a transition to low-and zero-emission vehicles is critical for decoupling demand for road transport from emissions.Improving vehicle fleets emissions through vehicle standards for public transport and

62、 ridesharing or shared vehicles will be important to reducing the emissions.Electrify rail networks to reduce emissionsElectrify rail networks to reduce emissions The electrification of existing and new rail networks would reduce trip-based emissions through efficiency improvements.Emissions would b

63、e even lower if energy production upstream were to move away from fossil fuel sources for electricity production.Improve crossImprove cross-border trade facilitation to enhance connectivityborder trade facilitation to enhance connectivity Border crossings could be made more seamless with the proper

64、policy measures as well as planned investment in infrastructure.In particular,digitalised systems for the documentation of cross-border transport made a leap forward during the Covid-19 pandemic.Southeast Asian countries can build on the lessons learned to make trading across borders easier Accelera

65、te aviations technology and fuel transition to reduce emissionsAccelerate aviations technology and fuel transition to reduce emissions Air travel accounted for nearly a quarter of passenger-kilometres in Southeast Asia in 2015.By 2050,passenger-kilometres travelled by aircraft will more than double

66、under all three scenarios.Under business-as-usual assumptions(the Recover scenario),emissions will also double.However,under the Reshape and Reshape+scenarios where lower emission planes and fuels are adopted,aviations CO2 emissions fall by c.30%compared to 2015,with only a marginal reduction in the

67、 passenger-kilometres flown.Leverage decarbonisation opportunities offered by urban transportLeverage decarbonisation opportunities offered by urban transport Southeast Asias urban population is growing.This provides an opportunity to integrate urban development strategies and transport planning,to

68、establish sustainable modes as attractive alternatives to privately-owned cars.Encouraging the use of low-or zero-emission delivery vehicles in urban settings is critical to lowering emissions from the expanding urban freight.PATHWAYS TO DECARBONISE TRANSPORT IN SOUTHEAST ASIA BY 2050 ITF SOUTHEAST

69、ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 9 Pathways to decarbonise transport in Southeast Asia by 2050 Southeast Asia is a fast-growing region with increasing carbon emissions.Commitments to decarbonise transport sectors vary,however,decarbonisation is not necessarily the top priority in the sub-region,

70、compared to priorities in the rest of the region.Therefore,opportunities for decarbonisation risk going unrealised,even as the sub-region is striving to“build back better”or deliver on its global commitments.Figure 1 shows what Asian freight authorities consider to be freight priorities during the r

71、ecovery from the pandemic.It shows that respondents in Southeast Asia rated border-crossings,transport resilience and digitalisation more highly than the average for countries in the rest of Asia,with economic growth being considered less of a priority than these two areas.On the other hand,decarbon

72、isation rated lower among respondents from Southeast Asia than those from Asia more widely.It is important,therefore,to consider co-benefits and risks between strategies for the different policy objectives.Figure Figure 1 1.Major pandemicMajor pandemic-recovery concerns of freight authorirecovery co

73、ncerns of freight authorities in Asia and the Pacificties in Asia and the Pacific Note:UN ESCAP survey on freight transport policy responses to COVID-19,conducted in June and July 2020.Source:Adapted from UN ESCAP(2020),https:/asean.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/asean-covid-19-guidelines.pdf.PATHWA

74、YS TO DECARBONISE TRANSPORT IN SOUTHEAST ASIA BY 2050 10 ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 The UN ESCAPs definition of the Southeast Asia sub-region has been adopted for this report.This sub-region accounts for the following countries,which are all considered in this report:Brunei D

75、arussalam,Cambodia,Indonesia,Lao Peoples Democratic Republic(PDR),Malaysia,Myanmar,Philippines,Singapore,Thailand,Timor-Leste,and Viet Nam.All the countries of Southeast Asia have submitted Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)to the UNFCCC under the Paris Agreement and have objectives to meet u

76、nder the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs).The ITF presents this study on scenarios for future transport demand,passenger mobility,freight volumes and the associated transport emissions to 2050 for Southeast Asia.These scenarios assess potential impacts of future transport activity on climate chan

77、ge through detailed carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions projections under different conditions.The ITF models used for the Transport Outlook are demand-based models that show what could be possible under certain policy scenarios,using policies that are already committed as the baseline.These ITF models are

78、 global models,and as such,there are limitations to how granular the results presented can be.Model outputs are therefore reported at the sub-regional level,except for specific project work such as the connectivity section.For the most recent ITF Transport Outlook(ITF,2021),three scenarios were cons

79、idered,Recover,Reshape and Reshape+.These are described in detail in Annex A,with the specific policies for each of the transport models in Annexes B,C and D all of which are extracted from the original Outlook 2021.Figure 2 gives a high-level summary of the three.Figure Figure 2 2.Summary of the th

80、ree ITF Transport Outlook Summary of the three ITF Transport Outlook 2021 scenarios2021 scenarios The Recover scenario is the baseline in terms of policy measures.Under Recover,it is assumed that transport trends return to levels seen prior to the pandemic by 2025.It also assumes that only pre-exist

81、ing planned or committed policies are implemented,so there are no additional policies that build on the pandemic experience.From a policy perspective,this could be considered the business-as-usual scenario.Under Reshape,transport trends are again assumed to have returned to their pre-pandemic levels

82、 by 2025,and,it is assumed that significantly more ambitious policies to decarbonise transport will be implemented.This scenario is considered“transformational”.It assumes policy measures that“encourage changes in the behaviour of transport users,uptake of cleaner energy and vehicle technologies,dig

83、italisation to improve transport efficiency,and infrastructure investment to help meet environmental PATHWAYS TO DECARBONISE TRANSPORT IN SOUTHEAST ASIA BY 2050 ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 11 and social development goals.”(ITF,2021).Measures such as carbon pricing or port fees

84、 would be assumed to be more stringent,while the attractiveness of more sustainable modes would be increased.The improved attractiveness would be due to assumed lower penalties for multimodal interchanges,greater investment in infrastructure and services,more efficient operations(through asset shari

85、ng in freight,for example)and broader uptake of innovative solutions and alternative fuels or power.Reshape+is the most ambitious of the three scenarios.It assumes that“governments seize decarbonisation opportunities created by the pandemic,which reinforce the policy efforts in Reshape.”(ITF,2021).U

86、nder Reshape+,any reductions in transport demand observed during the pandemic broadly continue,with a more ambitious policy package also being implemented.This report summarises findings that will help stakeholders to better understand the future of demand in passenger mobility,freight volumes and t

87、ransport-related emissions to 2050 for the sub-region.It can support public authorities in the sub-region in developing their policy pathways to achieve these objectives and in improving the actions on transport specifically,in their plans and future commitments.RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVE

88、LOP 12 ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Reshaping transport as economies develop Southeast Asias economies are among the fastest-growing in the world,yet considerable development gaps exist between the countries in this sub-region.Significant infrastructure development is planned f

89、or the coming years.The needs and focus between countries will differ and must be considered.Accommodating this growth in a sustainable manner is an important concern.Economic and demographic trends are important for long-term transport planning.They influence travel patterns,consumption and demand

90、often requiring policy responses or planning for both transport and land-use planning.This section looks at the population and economic forecasts for Southeast Asia and considers prevailing transport trends and policy priorities,recent Covid-19 impacts and lessons learned from the pandemic.The human

91、 dimension:Balancing population growth and climate action The population of Southeast Asia was estimated to be 662 million in 2019(UN DESA,2019a),with a quarter of the population being under 15 years of age.Between 2020 and 2050,the population of the sub-region is anticipated to grow by approximatel

92、y 19%,reaching over 790 million by 2050(UN DESA,2019b),see Figure 3.However,this growth will not be uniform across the sub-region,with the greatest growth anticipated in Timor-Leste(projected to grow by over 50%),followed by the Philippines,Cambodia and Lao Peoples Democratic Republic(Lao PDR)(growt

93、h of approximately 30%each).Indonesia is projected to grow by 21%and Malaysia by 25%.The remaining countries see population growth of 10-14%,with the exception of Thailand,where a 6%decrease in population is expected(UN DESA,2019b).Population-growth in Indonesia,the Philippines and Viet Nam,in parti

94、cular,is expected to contribute significantly to growth in the region,accounting for“98%of the increase in the working population”in the ASEAN region and“contributing 70%to 80%of its new consumer population”(WEF/Bain&Company,2020).This population growth in the sub-region is expected to result in an

95、increase in transport demand for both passenger and freight transport.As urbanisation progresses,cities will also grow,with the number of cities with more than one million inhabitants expected to grow over the coming decades.This will likely change the densities and footprints of cities with implica

96、tions for network planning,to ensure connectivity and accessibility.Policy makers must plan to mitigate the risk of increased carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions that will come from the increased transport activity in Southeast Asia.The age profile varies significantly across the sub-region(Figure 4).Among

97、 the countries in the region,Singapore and Thailand,in particular,will see their populations age,with the proportion of their populations aged over 64 rising to 33%in Singapore and 30%in Thailand.Brunei Darussalam and Viet Nam see their populations age somewhat too,with the proportion of those aged

98、over 64 more than doubling in both places(from 6%to 22%in Brunei Darussalam,and from 8%to 20%in Viet Nam).However,these countries are starting from relatively younger populations in 2020,with 30%of the population in both countries currently under the age of 20(UN DESA,2019b).RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS E

99、CONOMIES DEVELOP ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 13 Figure Figure 3 3.Population projections of SouthPopulation projections of Southe east Asia countries to 2050ast Asia countries to 2050 Note:Data are according to the medium-variant projections.Source:Adapted from UN DESA(2019b),

100、Population Division World Population Prospects 2019(database),https:/population.un.org/wpp/.The age profile of a population is important for transport policy makers to consider.As much as the working-age population growing can indicate a potential consumption boom,an ageing population can also have

101、implications for transport policy as trip profiles and transport users needs may change.This can affect the modes and routes required to ensure accessibility for older inhabitants,including those with mobility impairments.Road safety and affordability are also key concerns.Urban planning also has a

102、role to play,where mixed-use and multi-age developments with access to essential services and social activities can support people ageing in their community(OECD,2001;WHO,2007;Schwanen and Pez,2010;Frye,2011;Metz,2011;ITF/OECD,2017).RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP 14 ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRAN

103、SPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Figure Figure 4 4.National population by age(%)inNational population by age(%)in SouthSouthe east Asia countries,2020 and 2050ast Asia countries,2020 and 2050 Note:Data are according to the medium-variant projections.Source:Adapted from UN DESA(2019b),Population Division

104、World Population Prospects 2019(database),https:/population.un.org/wpp/.Populations in Southeast Asia are not only growing,they are also moving.The urban populations of Southeast Asia have been growing since the 1950s and this growth is expected to continue through to 2050(Figure 5).Several countrie

105、s,in particular,are anticipating significant urbanisation over the coming years.Cambodias urban population is expected to more than double between 2020 and 2050,reflecting both a growth in the national population but also an increase in the proportion of the population that lives in urban areas from

106、 24%in 2020 to 41%in 2050(UN DESA,2018).Lao PDR is also expecting to see their urban population nearly double in this same timeframe.The urban populations of the Philippines and Myanmar are both projected to grow by over 70%and Indonesia over 50%.Even in Thailand,where the national population is not

107、 expected to grow,the urban population is expected to increase by roughly 27%between 2020 and 2050.In total,the proportion of the population dwelling in urban areas in Southeast Asia is expected to grow from 49%in 2018 to 66%in 2050(UN DESA,2019c).Urbanisation,already identified as a strategic prior

108、ity in the sub-region,will have implications for both land-use and transport planning in cities.Integrated land-use and transport planning can support efficient outcomes for transport and sustainable mobility options for inhabitants of the cities.Many cities facing significant urbanisation may also

109、need to upgrade their public transport networks and provision,including infrastructure and services,while also considering what ancillary policies would support sustainable growth in the years to come.RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 15 Figu

110、re Figure 5 5.Population living in urban areas in SouthPopulation living in urban areas in Southe east Asia countries,1950ast Asia countries, Source:Adapted from UN DESA(2018),World Urbanization Prospects:The 2018 Revision(database),https:/population.un.org/wup/.The economic dimension:P

111、lanning for growth The overall economy of the Southeast Asia sub-region is expected to grow strongly in the coming years.The Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)economy is projected to be“the worlds next economic powerhouse”by the World Economic Forum(WEF/Bain&Company,2020).Currently,the co

112、untries are a mix of lower middle income,higher middle income,and high income,according to World Bank categories(ADB,2021).The growing population in the sub-region will be accompanied by an expanding middle class,along with the increased urbanisation discussed above.Consumption in the region is expe

113、cted to increase,although some factors could potentially hinder the sub-region from achieving its growth potential.These factors include fragmentation of trade regulations across borders(WEF/Bain&Company,2020).The economies of Southeast Asia vary broadly in terms of development and core industry sec

114、tors.Countries rely to differing extents on tourism,manufacturing and exports of various goods and services.E-commerce has also grown rapidly in the sub-region(OECD,2021).The development gap across the economies within the sub-region is significant.Singapore,at one end of the scale,is highly develop

115、ed and has a comparable GDP per capita to the United States and a favourable context for doing business.Cambodia,Myanmar and Lao PDR,on the other end,are still developing economies with much lower GDP per capita,differing levels of urbanisation and lower(though varying)levels of internet access.Soci

116、o-economically,Brunei Darussalam,though wealthy,is also still considered a developing economy(WEF/Bain&Company,2020).Southeast Asia attracts a significant amount of Foreign Direct Investment(FDI)and in 2019 the ASEAN member states recorded their highest level of FDI to date.The pandemic impacted FDI

117、 in 2020(falling by 25%),but this was a lesser hit than FDI falls internationally,with the overall proportion of global FDI represented by ASEAN growing from 11.9%to 13.7%between 2019 and 2020(ASEAN and UNCTAD,2021).The Covid-19 pandemic negatively affected the entire Southeast Asia sub-region,but d

118、iffering rates of recovery have been observed among the individual countries(OECD,2021).During the pandemic,economies dependent on tourism suffered heavily under the global travel restrictions imposed.These economies still face uncertainty in the rate of recovery that can be expected as variants and

119、 resurgent RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP 16 ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 waves of the Covid-19 virus,as well as varying vaccination rates around the world,have slowed the reopening.The pandemic has put virus control centre stage,and the measures adopted in different

120、countries to ensure the continued movement of goods across borders have allowed the export activity to continue where there was demand.Indeed,merchandise exports contributed to the economic recovery of several countries in Southeast Asia(OECD,2021;UN ESCAP,2021a).However,as other regions begin to re

121、cover,competition is increasing in the goods market.Furthermore,the emergence of the Delta variant of Covid-19 caused a return to more economically disruptive restrictions in the context of an initially slow vaccine roll-out.Uneven economic recovery is exacerbating inequality and poverty,with the ma

122、jority of people who cannot escape poverty in the East Asia and Pacific region“expected to come from Indonesia,the Philippines,and Myanmar”(World Bank,2021).Efforts to improve trade in the sub-region have been underway for several years.Trade agreements have been signed to improve and ease trade in

123、the sub-region,including opening previously restricted tendering processes to competition,reducing or eliminating trade tariffs,harmonisation of standards and cross-border facilitation.The agreements cover goods and services as well as investment and co-operation(Ministry of Trade and Industry Singa

124、pore,2018,2021;RCEP,2020).Two key trade agreements,the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership(CPTPP)and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)have been signed in recent years.The CPTPP was signed between Australia,Brunei Darussalam,Canada,Chile,Japan,Mal

125、aysia,Mexico,Peru,New Zealand,Singapore and Viet Nam,and has been operating since 2018(UNCTAD Investment Policy Hub,2018).The RCEP agreement was signed in November 2020 between Countries in Southeast Asia(excluding Timor-Leste)and Australia,The Peoples Republic of China,Japan,New Zealand and the Rep

126、ublic of Korea.RCEP is anticipated to play an important role in the post-Covid-19 recovery of Southeast Asia and includes provisions specifically facilitating FDI and economic co-operation(UNCTAD,2020).Selected transport developments in Southeast Asia Transport infrastructure is one of the decisive

127、factors determining the connectivity of a sub-region.Southeast Asia is well situated at the crossroads of major global trade lanes,including Asia-North America,Asia-Europe,and Intra-Asia.Growing international business activities and booming sub-regional markets have led to a dramatic transport deman

128、d increase in all transportation modes.However,Southeast Asia is not a homogenous sub-region.The nature of transport requirements vary across the countries in the sub-region,which consists of a mixture of mainland,including landlocked countries,and archipelagic countries.According to the World Econo

129、mic Forum(WEF)global competitiveness report(WEF,2019),there is a big disparity among Southeast Asian countries in terms of their overall transport infrastructure scores.The WEF transport infrastructure score consists of eight sub-indicators on road,rail,sea,and air transport infrastructure.These are

130、 road connectivity,quality of road infrastructure,railroad density,the efficiency of train services,airport connectivity,the efficiency of air transport services,liner shipping connectivity and efficiency of seaport services.The scores of the eight sub-indicators of the SEA countries are illustrated

131、 in Figure 6.Singapore,ranked number one in the world,is followed by Malaysia,ranked 29th.The countries on the Indochinese Peninsula form a group with some variation,and the rankings are Thailand(53rd),Viet Nam(66th),Lao PDR(87th),and Cambodia(96th).The two archipelagic countries,Indonesia and the P

132、hilippines,have quite different situations,being 55th and 102nd in the rankings,respectively.Meanwhile,the two countries(Myanmar and Timor-Leste)not included in the evaluation are also believed to have significant room for improvement.RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANS

133、PORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 17 Figure Figure 6 6.World Economic Forum transport infrastructure scores for nine SouthWorld Economic Forum transport infrastructure scores for nine Southe east Asia countriesast Asia countries Source:UNESCAP based on WEF(2019).Generally,the sub-region is on the core trun

134、k routes of the global networks for air transport and maritime shipping.Nonetheless,a significant difference in the level of connectivity exists between the countries with and without a hub status.Additionally,the road and railway routes within the sub-region still require substantial investments,de

135、spite substantial achievements,such as the increase in kilometres of paved roads and the expansion of expressways.The Asian Highways and Trans-Asian Railways networks are the backbone of the land-based transport infrastructure in Southeast Asia.Since its inception,they have been included in the plan

136、s of regional co-operation organisations and individual countries.For example,the Memorandum of Understanding on the Development of the ASEAN Highway Network(AHN)Project was signed in 1999 to connect 23 designated routes with a total length of 38 400 km.There are no longer missing links in the AHN,a

137、nd the focus is to upgrade the Below Class III roads and the Class II or III sections with high traffic volume(ASEAN Secretariat,2015b).As for railways,Indonesia(5 483 km),Myanmar(5 031 km),and Thailand(4 092 km)are the leading countries in terms of total railway length,followed by Viet Nam(2 481 km

138、)and Malaysia(1 655 km).Most railways are not electrified,with the exceptional case of Malaysia(47.3%)(UN ESCAP,2021b).Furthermore,to enhance the cross-border links in the sub-region,a flagship project to link RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP 18 ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF

139、2022 Singapore with Kunming in China was initiated at the 5th ASEAN Summit in December 1995,namely the Singapore-Kunming Rail Link(SKRL)Project.The SKRL will link major cities in seven countries Singapore,Malaysia,Thailand,Cambodia,Viet Nam,Lao PDR,and Myanmar.As an integral section of SKRL,the elec

140、trified railway service between Vientiane and Boten on the Lao PDR-China border(414 km)was inaugurated in December 2021(Medina,2021).In addition,two more SKRL-related projects are included in ASEANs latest transport strategic plan,a 255 km connection between Phnom Penh and Tra Peang Sre(Cambodia/Vie

141、t Nam border)and a 129 km connection between Loc Ninh and Ho Chi Mihn City(Cambodia/Viet Nam border)(ASEAN Secretariat,2015b).All of the coastal and island countries in Southeast Asia are well linked to the global shipping network primarily by direct shipping services and partially by transshipment

142、through regional hub ports.However,Lao PDR,the only land-locked country in the sub-region,still experiences significant difficulty for port access.Based on the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development(UNCTAD)Liner Shipping Connectivity Index for 2011-2019(World Bank,no date),shipping conne

143、ctivity has been steadily increasing at a modest rate in all Southeast Asia countries.Viet Nam has the most notable annual growth rate,with the connectivity score increasing from 48.2 to 66.51 between 2011 and 2019,mainly attributed to its increasing participation in global value chains.However,the

144、indices of the countries in the sub-region vary considerably.Based on the data of 2019,the top one,Singapore(108.1),is undoubtedly a world-leading hub,followed by Malaysia(93.8).Thailand(52.9),Indonesia(44.4),and the Philippines(30.6)form the second leading group.They are covered by regional shippin

145、g routes but must rely on transshipment for trans-oceanic routes serving inter-regional trades.The rest of the countries,Myanmar(8.5),Cambodia(8.0),Brunei Darussalam(7.7),and Timor-Leste(2.9),rely heavily on the ports of their neighbouring countries.An expansion in air transport services has been ob

146、served for the Southeast Asia countries from 2011 through 2019,with an annual growth rate of 7.5%in passenger traffic for the entire sub-region(World Bank,no date).The ASEAN Single Aviation Market initiative is a critical factor in boosting growth.Particularly impressive growth has been observed for

147、 Viet Nam(15.7%)and Thailand(11.5%),mainly due to the investments in new and existing airports and the increased frequencies mostly attributed to the rising low-cost carriers.Although partly due to their low-base volume,Cambodia(14.0%)and Myanmar(11.6%)also made remarkable progress,directly resultin

148、g from their raised international engagements regarding trade,investments,and tourism.Indonesia and the Philippines,the two archipelagic countries backed by vast domestic air markets,are ranked first and fourth in terms of passenger numbers and have an annual growth rate of 3.2%and 7.7%,respectively

149、.For the air cargo side,the operations were stable in the sub-region,without any substantial growth.Singapore plays a dominating hub role,holding about 50%of the air cargo market.Viet Nam is the other notable country,achieving annual growth of 10.1%and market share increase from 3.3%to 9.3%.The achi

150、evement was mainly due to its successful transformation to participate in global value chains.As many multinational enterprises accelerate the relocation of manufacturing sites to Viet Nam and several Southeast Asia countries,air cargo volumes are expected to grow further.Finally,air links are essen

151、tial for remote countries,and more investments will be needed for the under-served countries.In addition to the above individual transport modes,multi-modal connectivity is crucial for operational efficiency and emission reductions.The network of dry ports can increase the operational efficiency of

152、the highway and railway networks,extending their reach to wider areas and facilitating their integration with the regions seaports and other transport modes.UNESCAPs Intergovernmental Agreement on Dry Ports provides a uniform definition of a dry port of international importance,identifies the networ

153、k of existing and potential dry ports,and proposes guiding principles for their development and operation.As of 2019,RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 19 the Agreement has 14 Parties and covers 226 dry ports.Among them,28 existing and 23 pote

154、ntial dry ports are in the Southeast Asia sub-region(UN ESCAP,2019).The dry port at Savannakhet,Lao PDR was,for example,opened in 2016 on the border with Thailand.Together with others under construction and planning,the dry port system will help to transform a landlocked country into a land-linked c

155、ountry(MPWT,2019).The growing population and the fast urbanisation in this sub-region have led to a substantial rise in peoples activity,with a consequent impact on mobility levels.For example,Indonesias passenger transport activity grew by 43%between 2010 and 2019,reaching a level close to 115 bill

156、ion passenger-kilometres.A diverse range of transport modes co-exist within urban areas to accommodate the growing needs.In particular,much travel in this sub-region is done by non-motorised transport(NMT),either walking,bicycles,or non-motorised paratransit,complementing the typical public transpor

157、t services.App-based ridesharing services,such as Didi,Grab,Go-Jek,Uber,and Ola,are on the rise(UN ESCAP,2021c).There is also interest in solutions such as bikesharing,demand-responsive transit and Mobility as a Service(MaaS).Smart mobility in this sub-region is expected to play an important role in

158、 making travels safer,smarter and greener(UN ESCAP,2022).Shaping tomorrows transport:Strategic and policy priorities in the sub-region As with the rest of the world,Southeast Asia is trying to recover from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic,in the context of continuing uncertainty.However,the pre-e

159、xisting priorities of urbanisation in the sub-region and the need for sustainable connectivity and mobility solutions continue to be important.The countries in the sub-region are actively pursuing plans for both strategic areas,although with different focuses.Strategic planning for a recovery from t

160、he pandemic that takes account of the other priorities can contribute to advancing sustainability objectives as the sub-region recovers.Moving towards sustainable transport systems As cities grow,so too does their need for more accessible and sustainable mobility.The trend towards urbanisation has s

161、trategic importance for transport policy making.Integrated land-use and transport planning can improve the outcomes for citizens.However,a focus on urbanisation should not result in the omission of planning for peri-urban and rural areas,as highlighted in the ASEAN Development Outlook(ASEAN Secretar

162、iat,2021).Climate change and resilience to disasters are of growing concern in the sub-region as the disaster risk-profile changes and increased frequency of weather-related disruption is expected.The development of liveable cities will be needed to account for the impacts of climate change(ASEAN Se

163、cretariat,2021).Earthquake and volcanic activity,flooding and storms are the most prevalent disasters that cause damage and disruption in the sub-region.As well as the human cost,natural disasters inflict damage on infrastructure(OECD,2018b).Damaged infrastructure creates costs both to repair or to

164、rebuild the affected infrastructure but also in terms of disruption to the movement of goods and people.All countries in the sub-region have made strategic plans to reduce the climate impact of transport,ranging from specific emission reducing transport or fuel targets to economy-wide plans(ADB,2021

165、).Cambodia,Indonesia,Lao PDR,Malaysia,Singapore and Thailand also have targets relating to the uptake of electric vehicles(ADB,2021,POL-TAR-009).Thailand is developing a roadmap for electric vehicles through to 2035,targeting that 30%of vehicles manufactured in Thailand are electric by 2030,rising t

166、o 50%by 2035(UN RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP 20 ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 ESCAP,no date).Brunei Darussalam,Indonesia,Singapore and Viet Nam have specific mode-share targets to be achieved by either 2030 or 2050 for passenger transport,while Thailand has a mode-sh

167、are target for freight(ADB,2021,POL-TAR-010).The Philippines have also prioritised road safety with their strategy,The Philippine Road Safety Action Plan 2017 2022.It targets zero road-deaths.They also aim to improve the overall condition of the vehicle fleet,increase bicycle lane provision and intr

168、oduce Bus-Rapid Transit projects in major cities.Thailand,too has road safety objectives,taking a dual focus of infrastructure and road-user behaviour to improve safety(UN ESCAP,no date).Land transport is a priority in the current transport strategies,with both rail and road receiving significant in

169、vestment and planned development or improvement in the coming years(ASEAN Secretariat,2015b).The ASEAN Connectivity Master Plan was published in 2016,to improve integrations,connectivity and inclusiveness in the sub-region(ASEAN Secretariat,2016).However,as observed in the ASEAN Development Outlook(

170、2021,p.159),the Connectivity Master Plan does not explicitly account for environmental goals for its projects and“It is unlikely that projects created in these circumstances will maximise opportunities for delivering to the triple bottom line to support livelihoods sustainably and inclusively.”Enhan

171、cing sustainable transport connectivity The pandemic has caused serious disruption to global freight routes;including the new cross-border restrictions imposed.Even with the reduced transport demand caused by the Covid-19 pandemic,many transport systems,such as ports and inland transshipment hubs,ar

172、e facing severe traffic congestion.Lockdowns,workforce shortages,and quarantine measures have led to operational delays and to capacity and service frequency reduction.This disruption of transport systems had a detrimental effect on Southeast Asian countries,which play a vital role in global value c

173、hains.The problems associated with the issues of container shortages and high logistics costs have jeopardised the economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.Therefore,policy measures aimed at resilient cargo transport will be a high priority for the“new normal”in the sub-region post-Covid-19.Impr

174、ovements in flexibility and the introduction of electronic documentation have already been considered positive advances in the freight field.Work conducted by UN ESCAP and the ITF with the ASEAN Secretariat on guidelines for the Covid-19 recovery found that measures on facilitating easier border cro

175、ssings should be taken forward as part of the recovery but also to improve trade facilitation in the long term.Regional co-operation and knowledge-and data-sharing were highlighted by ASEAN member states as important learnings from the Covid-19 pandemic,which also highlighted deficiencies in existin

176、g trade agreements(ASEAN Secretariat,UN ESCAP and ITF,2021).The nature of freight handling and freight-related concerns vary by country in the sub-region.For example,the roll-on-roll-off(RORO)operation is crucial for some countries to establish the interlinkage of land and maritime transport modes d

177、omestically and with neighbouring countries.Meanwhile,cross-border movements are also vital to the sub-region.In this regard,ASEAN transport facilitation agreements,such as the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Facilitation of Goods in Transit(AFAFGIT)and the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Facilitation of

178、Inter-State Transport(AFAFIST),serve as a crucial basis to achieve integrated regional connectivity.The ASEAN Strategic Transport Plan for 2016-25(ASEAN Secretariat,2015b)foresees the signing of several agreements to improve trade and liberalise the aviation sector both within the sub-region and wit

179、h other regions,such as the European Union.Trade agreements can improve trade facilitation and open some sectors to enterprises from the agreements party countries(Ministry of Trade and Industry Singapore,RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 21

180、2016).All eleven economies in the sub-region have agreements with China to participate in the Belt and Road Initiative(OECD,2018a).Improved connectivity by road is important to many of the countries in the sub-region.Several countries recognise the need to reduce their emissions from road vehicles,w

181、ith plans now in place to improve electric vehicle and/or biofuel uptake in the transport sector(UN ESCAP,no date;Aquino et al.,2021;Thuy,2021;Woof,2021a,2021b).The plans are generally reflective of the development gap in the sub-region,with the least developed countries prioritising connectivity an

182、d building essential infrastructure for their growing economies.Railways are also a focus for climate action and connectivity improvement in the region.Lao PDR,Malaysia,Philippines,Thailand and Viet Nam are planning infrastructure improvements or expansions for their rail networks(UN ESCAP,no date;B

183、RI Monitor,2020;Burroughs,2021;Medina,2021).Several of these projects will include the electrification of the railways,reducing the CO2 emissions due to rail,which formerly used fossil-fuels.These networks will also serve as a more sustainable alternative to road for freight moving across countries

184、and the sub-region and will contribute to NDCs under the Paris Agreement.For example,Thailand is developing a motorway and railway master plan to improve connectivity.Bangkoks 20-year rapid mass-transit plan also sees rail developments and upgrades,including electrification,which will cover 55 km by

185、 2030.The Philippines plan to increase their rail network to over 1 000 km,up from 77 km,by the end of 2022(UN ESCAP,no date).Viet Nam also plans extensive rail connectivity expansion,with plans to build over 2 000 km of new rail lines as part of their 2021-30 strategy.The rail network is ultimately

186、 expected to carry nearly 12 million tonnes(equivalent to 0.27%of the market)of freight annually and 460 million passengers(4.4%of the market)(Burroughs,2021).For Lao PDR,the only land-locked country in Southeast Asia,connectivity by surface modes is essential.The Lao PDR-China railway,a 414 km elec

187、trified rail link that runs from the capital city of Vientiane to the Chinese border opened in December 2021.As well as improving connectivity in Lao PDR,it will also facilitate trade within the ASEAN region and with China.The line is expected see freight transport between China and Europe increase

188、to 1.2 to 1.8 million containers per year.It is expect to attract mode shift of approximately 1.5 million tonnes from maritime freight by 2030(Medina,2021).Freight shipping is very important in Southeast Asia,both for the movement of goods between countries and the movement through countries to and

189、from neighbouring regions.Singapore has one of the busiest ports in the world,reaching 37.5 million 20-foot equivalent units(TEUs)in 2021(Peck Gek,2022).The existing port suffers from congestion,and a new mega-port is planned for completion by 2040.This new port will be equipped for digitalisation a

190、nd automated functions(Koh,2019).The Philippines,Thailand and Malaysia are also investing in improving digital systems to enhance operations(MIDA,no date;UN ESCAP,no date)and Viet Nam and Timor-Leste are investing in upgrading their port infrastructure(CL Brief,2021;Labrut,2021).Transhipments across

191、 the sub-region are facilitated through a network of dry ports that allow goods to be carried on by road and rail.Myanmar will explore expanding its network of dry ports in the coming years(UN ESCAP,no date).Given the geographic make-up of the countries in the sub-region,aviation is also an importan

192、t mode,with several countries planning to expand their airport facilities.For example,since 2016,The Philippines reports having carried out 233 airport projects(UN ESCAP,no date).As all countries in the sub-region have submitted their intention to contribute to the Paris Agreement goals,the decarbon

193、isation of aviation will be very important.RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP 22 ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Box 1.Box 1.Supporting regional coSupporting regional co-operation on sustainable freightoperation on sustainable freight in Asia Pacificin Asia Pacific The Unite

194、d Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(UN ESCAP)is working on a regional strategy to deepen sustainability in freight transport and give further momentum and coherence to initiatives being undertaken at the region-wide level for Asia-Pacific.The outline of the proposed str

195、ategy addresses common challenges and offers a guiding vision,objectives,linkages to SDGs directly supported,enablers,priority areas and implementation arrangements.This policy document could bring a range of stakeholders onto a common platform to plan and implement sustainable freight-transport pol

196、icies that contribute to achieving SDGs in the decade of action for sustainable development.Regional Regional s strategy to deepen sustainable freight transport in Asia and the Pacifictrategy to deepen sustainable freight transport in Asia and the Pacific Guiding vision Efficient,connected,safe and

197、clean regional freight transport system to support the realisation of Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)Objectives Providing coherence to the sustainable freight initiatives Creating synergies through partnerships Ensuring high-level political affirmation Sharpening the links between freight transp

198、ort policies and SDGs SDGs supported directly SDG Targets 9.1,9.a,3.6,12.3,9.4,7.3,13.1 Enablers or cross-cutting issues Strengthening governance for sustainable freight transport at a national level Enhancing co-ordination for sustainable freight transport at sub-regional level Building the capacit

199、y of transport officials Promoting use of digital transport technologies Encouraging private sector engagement for sustainable freight transport policies Diversifying sources of financing for sustainable freight transport Priority areas Decarbonising freight transport Building resilience of freight

200、transport to effectively deal with climate challenges and pandemics Strengthening cross-border and transit-transport connectivity Enhancing rural freight transport linkages Improving urban freight logistics Reducing freight-transport-related accidents Increasing share of rail freight and other susta

201、inable transport modes Implementing arrangements Establishing a sustainable freight co-ordinating platform Developing a sub-regional action plan on sustainable freight transport Monitoring and evaluating through a results framework RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPOR

202、T OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 23 Digitalisation Digitalisation is very important for the recovery of the sub-region after Covid-19(WEF,2020;ASEAN Secretariat,UN ESCAP and ITF,2021a).However,digitalisation had already been identified as important in the planning for this sub-region before the pandemic(ASEA

203、N Secretariat,2016;OECD,2018c,2021;ASEAN and UNCTAD,2021).The World Economic Forum surveyed youths in six Southeast Asia countries(Indonesia,Malaysia,the Philippines,Singapore,Thailand and Viet Nam)on the impacts of the pandemic on their use of digital tools(including ridesharing,food delivery servi

204、ces and e-commerce).The survey found that 87%of respondents had“increased usage of at least one digital tool during the pandemic”,and 42%had picked up a new one(WEF,2020,p.8).The same survey found that 42%of respondents increased or started using e-commerce,reaching more than 50%of respondents from

205、Indonesia and Singapore.Across all respondents,13%increased their use of or started using ridesharing services and 9%increased or started using travel apps,although fewer-than-half of these respondents believed that this change in behaviour would be permanent(WEF,2020).Several countries have policie

206、s specifically aimed at intelligent transport systems(ITS)and Information and Communication Technologies(ICT)(ASEAN Secretariat,2015a;ADB,2021).The digitalisation of areas such as health and education have been intensified by the pandemic and many countries are now further encouraging e-commerce(OEC

207、D,2021).Digitalisation in trade and logistics,including using digital technologies and standardising processes to improve border crossings,will also be important for trade facilitation(ASEAN Secretariat,UN ESCAP and ITF,2021;US-ASEAN Connect,2021).An assessment by ASEAN concluded that companies in t

208、he sub-region are currently faring well,although with room to improve in this regard(US-ASEAN Connect,2021).Digitalisation can also assist to decarbonise transport.Digitally enabled asset sharing can help to improve system efficiencies and reduce CO2 emissions in road freight(ITF,2018)and in shippin

209、g(ITF,forthcoming a).Efficiency improvements are also seen as important by the ASEAN member states as part of the Covid-19 recovery(ASEAN Secretariat,UN ESCAP and ITF,2021).The trade dimension:Addressing connectivity gaps Connectivity is a strategic priority for the sub-region as it grows.Improving

210、freight connectivity is a particular focus and many lessons have been learned or plans accelerated in response to the pandemic.This section looks at connectivity for each of the Southeast Asian countries,apart from Timor-Leste due to the lack of data.The first element is estimating how well connecte

211、d individual countries are to their wider potential markets.The graphs in Figure 7 show how far goods must travel to access global GDP.For comparison,the graphs include the distances for the Netherlands(a highly connected country and the basis for the connectivity gap analysis below)and the United S

212、tates(an example of a large,developed economy that trades internationally).For goods starting in the Netherlands,20%of global GDP can be reached in slightly more than 1 000 km.For goods starting from the United States,this distance roughly doubles.No country in Southeast Asia has the same goods conn

213、ectivity.The closest is the Philippines,from which goods can reach 20%of GDP in approximately 3 250 km,followed by Lao PDR and Viet Nam,at approximately 3 750 km.Brunei Darussalam,Myanmar,Cambodia,Malaysia and Singapore fall between 4 000 km and 5 000 km.Indonesia has the lowest connectivity,with go

214、ods starting in Indonesia needing more than 5 000 km to reach 20%of global GDP.RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP 24 ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Figure Figure 7 7.Impact of distances on reaching global centres of production and consumptionImpact of distances on reaching

215、global centres of production and consumption RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 25 However,physical distance is not the only measure of the connectivity of a country.Freight transport is time-sensitive,and factors that cause delays,for example

216、 circuitous routes,border delays,or additional direct costs,such as tariffs or fees for processing border crossings,all impact how attractive a country is to do business with,and hence how well connected it is.Box 2 explains an indicator that can be used to estimate the connectivity of one country r

217、elative to another.Figure 8 shows how the connectivity of countries in Southeast Asia compares to that of the Netherlands,which is ranked as one of the most connected countries in the world.Policy measures cannot overcome the actual physical distance to access wider markets impacting countries diffe

218、rently.However,policies aimed at reducing costs,such as improving and streamlining border crossing processes and costs incurred for cross-border trade,can improve access to global markets.This is clearly visible in the case of Singapore.Looking at distance alone,Singapore is one of the least well-co

219、nnected countries among those in Southeast Asia.However,when costs of doing business(including border crossings,handling costs and travel time)are considered in addition to distance,Singapore is the most connected in the sub-region,having a connectivity gap of less than 20%to the Netherlands.In a RE

220、SHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP 26 ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 World Bank Group assessment of the ease of doing business in 190 different countries,on a range of measures,including cross border trade2,Singapore is ranked second among the 190 economies for ease of doing

221、business,demonstrating the importance of policy measures in overcoming distance for trade(World Bank Group,2021a).However,it is worth noting that Singapore ranks 47th for policies specifically relating to the border crossings,based on comparing costs incurred and time lost due to meeting border and

222、documentary compliance requirements.The highest costs are to meet border compliance requirements at more than double the costs incurred for border compliance in high-income OECD countries.Time lost is also a significant factor.Best regulatory performance economies cost importers and exporters only o

223、ne hour for border compliance.However,in Singapore,border compliance is estimated to consume thirty-three hours for importers and ten hours for exporters(this is still better than the average for high income-OECD countries time for exporters)(World Bank Group,2020h).Figure Figure 8 8.Connectivity ga

224、p for SouthConnectivity gap for Southe east Asia countries compared with the Netherlandsast Asia countries compared with the Netherlands Note:BRN=Brunei Darussalam;KHM=Cambodia;IDN=Indonesia;LAO=Lao Peoples Democratic Republic;MYS=Malaysia;MMR=Myanmar;PHL=Philippines;SGP=Singapore;THA=Thailand;VNM=V

225、iet Nam Malaysia,Thailand and Viet Nam all have connectivity gaps of less than 40%compared with the Netherlands.They are ranked 12th,21st and 70th,respectively,by the World Bank Group for overall ease of doing business with,but 49th,62nd and 104th,respectively,for trading across borders(World Bank G

226、roup,2020e,2020j,2020i).Direct costs for border compliance for Malaysia and Thailand are lower than for Singapore,with the exception of import costs for Thailand.Costs for importers are also higher in Viet Nam.However,costs for documentary compliance are higher in Thailand and Viet Nam than in high-

227、income OECD countries and Singapore,and time-related costs are higher in Malaysia,Thailand and Viet Nam(World Bank Group,2020e,2020j,2020i).The connectivity index of Cambodia is 47%and the Philippines is 44%.They rank fourth and fifth among the countries in the sub-region in terms of the connectivit

228、y gap(Figure 8).According to the World Bank RESHAPING TRANSPORT AS ECONOMIES DEVELOP ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 27 metric on trading across borders,which does not take physical distance into account,Cambodia is ninth and the Philippines is seventh in the sub-region.The Philip

229、pines is recorded as having the highest costs for border compliance for both importing and exporting.Cambodia is one of the countries with highest time costs for documentary compliance(World Bank Group,2020b,2020g).Indonesia,Myanmar,Lao PDR and Brunei Darussalam are all less-than-half as well connec

230、ted as the Netherlands.Indonesia,despite being an established exporter in the region(KPMG,2019)ranks among countries classed as developing when it comes to the connectivity gap compared to the Netherlands.According to a World Bank survey,Indonesia ranks 73rd for overall ease of doing business but 11

231、6th for trading across borders.Importers and Exporters incur greater costs,both direct costs and time costs,in Indonesia than many of its neighbours in the sub-region,and considerably greater than the average for the high-income OECD countries(World Bank Group,2020c).For overall ease of doing busine

232、ss Myanmar ranks 165th,Lao PDR 154th and Brunei Darussalam 66th(World Bank Group,2020k,2020d,2020a),yet Brunei Darussalam and Myanmar have the lowest scores in the sub-region for trading across borders(World Bank Group,2020a,2020f).However,when it comes to facilitating cross border trade,Lao PDR is

233、ranked 78th among the 190 countries in the Doing Business project,and fourth in the sub-region after Singapore,Malaysia and Thailand(World Bank Group,2020d).Lao PDR compares favourably to several other countries in the sub-region on time and cost for border compliance but fares less well on the time

234、 and costs associated with documentary compliance(World Bank Group,2020d).Policies to reduce these costs and streamline processes at borders could help reduce generalised costs for traders at the borders of all countries in the sub-region,to varying degrees,and thus improve connectivity.Box Box 2 2.

235、Measuring the connectivity gap.Measuring the connectivity gap between countriesbetween countries The methodological approach for measuring connectivity in this report is a gravity-based model which measures how many opportunities(defined as GDP)can be reached from each country relative to other coun

236、tries.The explanatory components are calculated for road,rail and maritime transport modes and include distance,transport cost(including border crossing and handling cost),travel time(speed)and border crossing time.The following formula represents the indicator structure:=where g is the generalised

237、cost,including all the explanatory factors;is the elasticity of the index to the generalised cost and is set to equal 0.4(a commonly used value for trade patterns elasticities);is arbitrarily set so that the ratio gc/is always below 1 and close to 1 for adjacent countries.The index measures the“econ

238、omic space”available to trade by country given the explanatory factors.Source:extract from ITF,(2019b),“Enhancing Connectivity and Freight in Central Asia”,International Transport Forum Policy Papers,No.71,OECD Publishing,Paris.,p.45 FREIGHT TRANSPORT:PLANNING FOR SIGNIFICANT GROWTH 28 ITF SOUTHEAST

239、 ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Freight transport:Planning for significant growth Freight transport is at the heart of transport strategies.Both in the short-term management of the Covid-19 crisis and in the longer-term as the population and economies in Southeast Asia grow,increasing consumpt

240、ion and demand for goods in(and from)the region.Any freight strategies will also need to address decarbonising the transport sector in the sub-region,while accounting for the projected growth in freight activity.Trade regionalisation,through recent and developing trade agreements,will also impact tr

241、ade flows and mode choices over the coming decades.Southeast Asia will see substantial growth in freight transport demand over the coming decades.Tonne-kilometres are projected to increase by nearly 80%between 2015 and 2030,and to have more than tripled(Reshape and Reshape+scenarios)or nearly quadru

242、pled(Recovery)the 2015 baseline value by 2050(Figure 9).Figure Figure 9 9.Freight activity for surface and domestic air and sea movements in SouthFreight activity for surface and domestic air and sea movements in Southe east Asia to 2050ast Asia to 2050 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Rec

243、over,Reshape and Reshape+refer to the three scenarios modelled,which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.Internationally,freight activity in the Southeast Asia sub-region is expected to be one of the fastest-growing among the regions reported on in the IT

244、F Transport Outlook 2021(Figure 10)(ITF,2021),relative to 2015 volumes.Even under Reshape+(Figure 11),where freight tonnes are not expected to grow to such an extent,the rate of growth in Southeast Asia relative to 2015 still outpaces other world regions by 2050.3 FREIGHT TRANSPORT:PLANNING FOR SIGN

245、IFICANT GROWTH ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 29 Figure Figure 1010.Indexed change in freight tonneIndexed change in freight tonne-kilometres by region kilometres by region under a under a RecoverRecover scenario for Southscenario for Southe east Asia to 2050ast Asia to 2050 Note

246、:index year=2015 Figure Figure 1111.Indexed change in freight tonneIndexed change in freight tonne-kilometres by regionkilometres by region under a under a Reshape+Reshape+scenario for Southscenario for Southe east Asia to 2050ast Asia to 2050 Note:index year=2015 FREIGHT TRANSPORT:PLANNING FOR SIGN

247、IFICANT GROWTH 30 ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Non-urban freight:Encouraging sustainable transport for movement of goods Should policy makers continue along a business-as-usual(Recover)trajectory,non-urban freight is to nearly quadruple between 2015 and 2050.With more measures

248、in place,this increase can be lessened to 3.5 times under Reshape and 3.3 under Reshape+.The vast majority of the non-urban freight in Southeast Asia is carried by sea,accounting for roughly 88-90%of all non-urban freight tonne-kilometres(Figure 12).It accounts for over 7.8 trillion tonne-kilometres

249、 in the 2015 baseline.Under Recover,sea kilometres quadruple between 2015 and 2050(exceeding 31 trillion tonne-kilometres).This is moderated somewhat under Reshape and Reshape+,although in both cases,the sea kilometres still more than triple over the same period.Road has the second-largest demand,ac

250、counting for 7%-9.4%of transport activity to 2050.Road freight accounted for 771 billion tonne-kilometres in the 2015 baseline.This increases to 2.63 trillion tonne kilometres in 2050 under the Recover scenario,2.43 trillion tonne-kilometres under Reshape and 2.10 trillion tonne-kilometres under Res

251、hape+.Rail and inland waterways will also be important to freight growth,with both modes carrying more tonne-kilometres than air-freight.Under Recover,tonne-kilometres for river grow by a factor of 3.4 between 2015 and 2050,and for rail that factor is 3.5.However,rail,which has a lower average carbo

252、n intensity than either road or air,becomes increasingly important under the more progressive scenarios with tonne-kilometres growing by a factor of 3.9 under Reshape and 5.3 under Reshape+.Under Reshape+,rail freight is expected to rise to 469 billion tonne-kilometres,more than four-times the tonne

253、-kilometres carried by air freight.Policies will need to encourage and support the use of the most sustainable transport mode for different goods.Measures such as multimodal interfaces can help to improve the access to,and efficiency of,interchanges.Policies focused on improved connectivity should a

254、lso consider environmental impacts and strive to achieve sustainable connectivity.Improvements to rail and waterways will help to make them more appealing for trade routes,and again the interchange facilities will be vital to enable multimodal freight options and expand the catchment of stations and

255、 ports.FREIGHT TRANSPORT:PLANNING FOR SIGNIFICANT GROWTH ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 31 Figure Figure 1212.NonNon-urban freight demand by mode and scenario for Southurban freight demand by mode and scenario for Southe east Asia to 2050ast Asia to 2050 Note:Figure depicts ITF m

256、odelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+refer to the three scenarios modelled,which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.Emissions projections The significant growth in tonne-kilometres under the business-as-usual(Recover)scenario has a direct impact

257、 on the CO2 emissions associated with non-urban freight in Southeast Asia.CO2 emissions increase by more than 75%between 2015 and 2050(rising from 125 Mt CO2 to 221 Mt CO2 in that time).Under a Reshape,emissions do rise between 2015 and 2035,but fall thereafter,ending up 35%below 2015 levels by 2050

258、.Emissions begin to fall sooner under the most ambitious scenario,Reshape+,peaking in 2025 and already being 16%below 2015 levels by 2030,and reaching a reduction of 50%on 2015 levels by 2050.The trajectories for all three scenarios are shown in Figure 13.FREIGHT TRANSPORT:PLANNING FOR SIGNIFICANT G

259、ROWTH 32 ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Figure Figure 1313.NonNon-urban freight tankurban freight tank-toto-whewheel emissions by scenario for Southel emissions by scenario for Southe east Asia to 2050ast Asia to 2050 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and

260、 Reshape+refer to the three scenarios modelled,which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.Looking at the modal profiles of the emissions under the three scenarios(Figure 14),it is clear that the proportion of the emissions due to each mode are not proporti

261、onal to the share of tonne-kilometres they carry.Despite carrying only 7 9.4%of tonne-kilometres,road freight accounts for between 45%and 60%of CO2 emissions(tank to wheel)to 2050.On the other hand,sea freight carries the vast majority of tonne-kilometres under all scenarios(roughly 90%)but only acc

262、ounts for between 34%and 44%of emissions across the years and scenarios.Despite the significant increase in sea freight tonne-kilometres under all scenarios between 2015 and 2050,the associated CO2 emissions reduce by 46%in Reshape and 56%in Reshape+.Shipping is less carbon-intensive than road freig

263、ht,and as such,road freight contributes a far greater share of freight emissions than shipping does when compared to its share of tonne-kilometres.Air freight retains a small modal share in terms of tonne-kilometres in the sub-region(0.3-0.4%),representing an absolute growth from 35 billion tonne-ki

264、lometres in 2015 to between 107-115 billion tonne-kilometres in 2050.However,the carbon intensity is expected to fall between 2015 and 2050 under both Reshape and Reshape+.This results in an 85%fall in CO2 emissions,which fall from 13 Mt CO2 in 2015 to 2 Mt CO2 in 2050 under both scenarios.Policy me

265、asures must focus on low-carbon intensity modes and technologies to meet the growth in freight demand.For sea freight,the deployment of slow steaming reduces emissions markedly between the Recover and two Reshape scenarios.For aviation,policies that promote sustainable aviation fuels or electric pla

266、nes will be needed(and an assumption of sufficient advancement in the development of these)to reduce emissions.For road freight,policies should focus on reducing the carbon intensity of the vehicles.This includes an energy transition for heavy-duty vehicles,adoption of low-carbon fuels and fuel econ

267、omy standards in internal combustion engines.Technology solutions,such as ITS,eco-driving and autonomous vehicles or platooning could also play a role in reducing emissions.In the case of all modes,carbon taxes would also encourage greater efficiency and the uptake of lower emissions technology.FREI

268、GHT TRANSPORT:PLANNING FOR SIGNIFICANT GROWTH ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 33 Figure Figure 1414.Share of tankShare of tank-toto-wheel emissions for nonwheel emissions for non-ururban freight ban freight by mode and scenario for Southby mode and scenario for Southe east Asia to

269、 2050ast Asia to 2050 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+refer to the three scenarios modelled,which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.Urban freight:Improving efficiencies and fleets Urban freight in Southeast Asia is

270、 set to grow strongly,with tonne-kilometres to nearly double between 2015 and 2030 under Recover,and then more than double again between 2030 and 2050.The considerable level of urbanisation expected in Southeast Asia in the coming years,along with a growing economy and associated increase in consump

271、tion,implies that even the more ambitious policy scenarios of Reshape and Reshape+do not result in significant eradication of freight tonne-kilometres in urban areas.Under Reshape and Reshape+,freight tonne-kilometres still double between 2015 and 2050.The upturn in e-commerce will result in increas

272、ed urban freight too.Policies will need to support more efficient deliveries to reduce vehicle kilometres,such as urban distribution centres to increase load factors on last-mile deliveries.Making better use of collection points for parcel deliveries and optimising routes can also help to limit tonn

273、e-kilometres.The just-in-time delivery approaches create problems with logistics and conflict with high load-factors.Uncontrolled returns policies(inverse logistics)could undermine efforts to optimise deliveries.FREIGHT TRANSPORT:PLANNING FOR SIGNIFICANT GROWTH 34 ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOO

274、K OECD/ITF 2022 Figure Figure 1515.Total urban Total urban freight tonnefreight tonne-kilometres by scenario for Southkilometres by scenario for Southe east Asia to 2050ast Asia to 2050 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+refer to the three scenarios modelled,which

275、 represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.Consistent with the growth in freight tonne-kilometres,emissions due to urban freight activity(Figure 16)will also grow.They double between 2015 and 2050 under Recover,growing from 16.9 Mt of CO2 in 2015 to 35.5 Mt in

276、2050.However,the more ambitious policies of the Reshape and Reshape+scenarios would manage to mitigate the associated growth in emissions,even managing to reduce emissions below the baseline levels of 2015.Under Reshape the emissions due to urban freight would fall to 141.2 Mt and,under the Reshape+

277、,the emissions would fall further to 121.2 Mt.To achieve the levels of reductions observed in Reshape and Reshape+,policies will need to reduce emissions from the vehicles being used to complete urban deliveries.Electrification of urban delivery fleets can be an effective way to achieve this,provide

278、d the electricity comes from a renewable source.A 2019 ITF study in Korea looked at the cost-benefit of Korea Post using compact electric vehicles(EVs)instead of gasoline-powered motorcycles.It found that benefits of using EVs would outweigh costs,as well as reducing tailpipe emissions,the study fou

279、nd there were efficiency improvements,savings in staff costs,and staff also perceived safety and comfort improvements(ITF,2019a).In addition to transitioning municipal delivery fleets,policy measures will need to encourage commercial operators to adopt more sustainable practices and vehicles.These c

280、an include charging infrastructure to support the roll-out of EVs and emissions or fuel-economy standards.FREIGHT TRANSPORT:PLANNING FOR SIGNIFICANT GROWTH ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 35 Figure Figure 1616.Urban freight COUrban freight CO2 2 emissions by scenario for Southemis

281、sions by scenario for Southe east Asia ast Asia to 2050to 2050 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+refer to the three scenarios modelled,which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.PASSENGER TRANSPORT:SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT

282、 FOR GROWING DEMAND 36 ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Passenger transport:Sustainable transport for growing demand Passenger demand in Southeast Asia is anticipated to grow considerably under the three modelled scenarios.Passenger-kilometres in the sub-region nearly quadrupling b

283、etween the baseline in 2015 and 2050(Figure 17).The more ambitious policies of Reshape and Reshape+see the total passenger demand moderated to some degree,but the increase is still a factor of at least 3.5 in all three scenarios.Passenger travel by inland waterway could not be modelled due to a lack

284、 of available data(e.g.services and activity).Average passenger-kilometres per head of population increases by approximately 50%60%between 2020 and 2030(accepting that there was reduced demand in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic),with a population increase of roughly 9%.The average passenger-kilome

285、tres per capita slightly more than doubles between 2030 and 2050,with a further population growth of 9%over those two decades,based on the medium variant population projections from UN DESA(UN DESA,2019b).Growing GDP would typically be associated with increased travel demand,and so the growing trave

286、l demand observed in these outputs would be consistent with expectations for a region undergoing the scale of economic growth anticipated in Southeast Asia.Figure Figure 1717.Passenger activity in SouthPassenger activity in Southe east Asia by scenario to 2050ast Asia by scenario to 2050 Note:Figure

287、 depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+,which refer to the three scenarios modelled,which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.The demand in passenger transport is closely split between urban(Figure 19)and non-urban(Figure 22)over the

288、coming years.While the total number of passenger-kilometres for both urban and non-urban grow,urban passenger-kilometres do so at a faster rate.The following sections look more closely at urban and non-urban transport.From a sustainability perspective,it is also worth noting that in many countries i

289、n the sub-region,motor vehicle(including two-wheelers and cars)ownership has been growing steadily(OECD,2018b).Under Recover,the emissions due to passenger transport will more than double between 2015-50.Under the Reshape and Reshape+scenarios,the emissions will grow initially before falling back ag

290、ain by 2050,PASSENGER TRANSPORT:SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT FOR GROWING DEMAND ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 37 ultimately being 30%lower in 2050 than they were in 2015.Looking at emissions from the passenger and freight sectors together in Figure 18,it is clear that non-urban passeng

291、er transport causes the greatest single-sector CO2 emissions,accounting for 4050%of transport emissions between 2015 and 2050.The second-largest sector in terms of emissions is non-urban freight.Non-urban freight also remains as the second-largest emitter regardless of the policy scenario adopted.Un

292、der Reshape+,emissions from non-urban freight can be halved,even as the freight activity grows between 2015 and 2050.Similarly,emissions due to urban passenger transport are halved,and those due to urban freight are reduced by 40%over the same timeframe.On the other hand,even under the most ambitiou

293、s scenario of Reshape+,emissions due to non-urban passenger transport are only reduced by 20%between 2015 and 2050.This does represent a decrease in carbon intensity for non-urban passenger(as demand does grow over that period),but it indicates that this sector is the most difficult to decarbonise b

294、ased on the policy measures and technologies currently seen as being available.FiguFigure re 1818.Total tankTotal tank-toto-wheel emissions for freight wheel emissions for freight and passenger and passenger transporttransport by scenarioby scenario in Southin Southe east Asia to 2050ast Asia to 205

295、0 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+refer to the three scenarios modelled,which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.Urban passenger transport:Cleaner vehicle fleets crucial for reducing emissions The urbanisation of th

296、e population in Southeast Asia over the coming decades will contribute to a growth in the passenger travel demand in urban areas.The urban population for the sub-region is expected to grow by 76%(UN DESA,2018)between 2015 and 2050.However,urban passenger demand is expected to outstrip this and grow

297、by a factor of approximately 3.5 over the same period.PASSENGER TRANSPORT:SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT FOR GROWING DEMAND 38 ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 As can be seen from Figure 19,there is a small difference of roughly 7%in urban passenger demand between the Recover and Reshape+sc

298、enarios.Private vehicle passenger-kilometres also grow(approximately two-thirds of which are motorcycles),and the mode share for private vehicles is roughly the same(at approximately 36%)in 2015 and 2050 under Reshape and Reshape+.Under Recover,the mode share for private vehicles increases by three

299、percentage points in 2050,reaching 39%of passenger-kilometres.In the 2015 baseline and through to 2030 under all scenarios,informal transport(includes informal on-demand buses and three-wheelers)has the second-highest mode share.This position is maintained through to 2050 under Recover,but under Res

300、hape and Reshape+the mode share for informal public transport shrinks.This reduction is due in part to the formalisation of the informal modes as part of public transport and shared modes(ridesharing,taxi and taxi-bus).This is primarily migrating to shared taxi-bus.However,informal modes are still e

301、xpected to remain under the Reshape scenarios.An interesting development is that active modes(walking and cycling)have the third-highest mode share(20%)in the 2015 baseline,but this declines under all scenarios.Under Reshape and Reshape+,active mode share has shrunk to 12%of passenger-kilometres.How

302、ever,this should be considered in the context of growing city footprints urban sprawl leads to lengthening of trip distances,which lends itself to longer trips by motorised modes rather than active modes.Passenger-kilometres for active travel do grow under all scenarios(more than doubling between 20

303、15 and 2050,under the Reshape scenarios),but this growth is at a slower pace than that of the motorised modes,and therefore results in a fall in mode share.There is an overall increase in the proportion of vehicle-based urban trips in the coming decades despite the growth in passenger-kilometres for

304、 the more sustainable modes,the relatively constant mode share for private vehicles.This growth suggests that efforts to decarbonise urban passenger transport in Southeast Asia should focus on policy measures that reduce emissions from the vehicles being used.If private vehicles are to be used,they

305、should be the cleanest vehicles possible.The ITF is currently working with the ASEAN Secretariat on an initiative to support the implementation of the“Fuel Economy Roadmap for the Transport Sector 2018-2025:with Focus on Light-Duty Vehicles”(ASEAN Secretariat,2019;ITF,2022).The report,Implementation

306、 of the ASEAN fuel economy roadmap finds that ASEAN member states have already made progress on addressing tailpipe emissions,likely bolstered through the ASEAN mutual recognition arrangement on type approval for automotive products(APMRA)trade agreement.However,the report recommends that there is s

307、till progress to be made.Among the recommendations,and a keystone to further advances,is an agreed technical basis for the evaluation of CO2 emissions and fuel economy.The capacity to conduct the necessary monitoring and the harmonisation of labelling and economic measures will enable the standardis

308、ation of fuel economy standards on a regional level(ITF,2022).Improvements to public transport will also be important in maintaining public transport ridership and attracting new users as the urban populations grow.This will be further discussed in the Accessibility section below.App-based mobility

309、services may also be important for attracting users to sustainable modes,by improving accessibility to alternatives to the private car,such as public transport.This could include the development of digital sales channels for specific modes or by specific operators.Ridesourcing apps are already opera

310、ting in many Southeast Asian cities,with super apps(which provide access to multiple services,not just mobility),such as GoJek or Grab also being established(ITF,forthcoming b).App-based mobility can be a channel for improving standards in informal modes,where appropriate regulation is introduced.In

311、 Mexico and Uganda,for example,app-based mobility services Jetty(Mexico City)and SafeBoda(Kampala)were developed to formalise existing informal modes of transport and improve safety and comfort for users(ITF,2019d).Mobility as a Service(MaaS)type applications,which PASSENGER TRANSPORT:SUSTAINABLE TR

312、ANSPORT FOR GROWING DEMAND ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 39 offer whole-journey planning,real-time information and payment in a single interface to the user,could also aid with the attractiveness of sustainable modes.However,it should be noted that MaaS is still an emerging dist

313、ribution model for mobility,and business models are generally still uncertain.See(ITF,2021b,2021c,2021d)for discussion of regulating MaaS.Figure Figure 1919.Urban passenger demand by mode and scenario for SouthUrban passenger demand by mode and scenario for Southe east Asia to 2050ast Asia to 2050 N

314、ote:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+refer to the three scenarios modelled,which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.Active mobility and micromobility include walking,biking,scooter-sharing,and bikesharing.Public transport

315、 includes public transport(PT)rail,metro,bus,light rail transit(LRT),and bus rapid transit(BRT).Paratransit includes informal buses and PT three-wheeler.Shared vehicle includes motorcycle and car-sharing.Private Vehicle includes motorcycles and cars.Shared mobility includes taxis,ridesharing,and tax

316、i buses.Work by the ITF to support the regulation of app-based mobility services in ASEAN member states(ITF,forthcoming b)has identified that regulation of such apps in several countries is lacking or unclear,leaving the apps in a regulatory grey area”,which could hinder their development.Purpose sp

317、ecific regulations should be adopted based on clearly established principles.Fair data governance requirements,relating to data sharing and reporting should be established to encourage developers to know they can participate in the market without risking their position.Authorities also need to devel

318、op adequate infrastructure and capacity to manage the data that results from app-based mobility.Co-ordination among ministries with responsibilities for regulating and overseeing app-based mobility will be essential to its successful development(ITF,forthcoming b).For emerging mobility apps in gener

319、al,authorities will also need appropriate capacity and digital infrastructure to monitor the market and benefit from new insights from the data reported by the app providers and the governance of the mobility aspects should be rooted in a broader mobility strategy(ITF,2019c,2021b,2021c,2021d).Emissi

320、ons for urban passenger travel(Figure 20)are set to more than double between 2015-50 if the trajectory of the status quo(Recover)is followed.This would see emissions for cities in Southeast Asia PASSENGER TRANSPORT:SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT FOR GROWING DEMAND 40 ITF SOUTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD

321、/ITF 2022 grow from 56 Mt of CO2 to 119 Mt of CO2.However,with more ambitious policies emissions could fall to 31 Mt of CO2 under the Reshape and 30 Mt of CO2 under Reshape+over the same period.Across all scenarios for 2015,2020 and 2030,private vehicles have the highest urban passenger emissions pr

322、ofile.They account for 46%of emissions in the 2015 baseline.In 2030,private vehicles still account for 41-46%of urban passenger emissions.Under Recover,emissions from private vehicles remain at approximately 41%of all emissions for urban transport.However,under Reshape and Reshape+,in addition to th

323、e overall shrinking of emissions due to urban transport,private vehicles share of those emissions falls to approximately 26%.Figure Figure 2020.Urban passenger emiUrban passenger emissions by mode and scenario for Southssions by mode and scenario for Southe east Asia to 2050ast Asia to 2050 Note:Fig

324、ure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+refer to the three scenarios modelled,which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.Active mobility and micromobility include walking,biking,scooter-sharing,and bikesharing.Public transport includ

325、es PT rail,metro,bus,LRT,and BRT.Paratransit includes informal buses and PT three-wheeler.Shared vehicle includes motorcycle and car-sharing.Private Vehicle includes motorcycles and cars.Shared mobility includes taxis,ridesharing,and taxi buses.Informal public transport has the second-largest emissi

326、ons share for urban passenger transport in all scenarios for 2015 and 2020.It continues to have the second-highest emissions under the business-as-usual Recover scenario in 2030.The high emissions associated with informal public transport can be due to its vehicle fleet not being subject to any stan

327、dards or emissions requirements.These fleets also tend to be older vehicles.The reduction in emissions associated with informal public transport in the Reshape scenarios can be considered both due to the decreased passenger-kilometres conducted by informal public transport but also due to the trips

328、switching to formalised modes,which will be made on cleaner fleets that are likely subject to minimum standards.Vehicle and fuel economy standards will be important to ensure rideshare and public transport vehicles are as low-carbon as they can be.The renewal of the vehicle fleet will be critical to

329、 achieving decarbonisation.A consequence of the fall in emissions from informal public transport is that emissions for shared trips grow considerably under all scenarios between 2015 and 2050(Figure 20).This can be mainly attributed PASSENGER TRANSPORT:SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT FOR GROWING DEMAND ITF SO

330、UTHEAST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 41 to the growth in usage for this mode,as more informal public transport modes are formalised and urban transport demand picks up across the board.Under Recover,emissions due to shared trips rise 15-fold between 2015 and 2050,reaching 30 Mt of CO2 in 205

331、0.However,growth for this mode reaches 16 Mt under Reshape and 15 Mt under Reshape+in 2030,before falling slightly to 14 and 13 Mt,respectively,by 2050.The age and type of vehicles being used in the various fleets will be very important for controlling emissions given the growth to come in vehicle-b

332、ased trips in urban transport in Southeast Asia.A tax on CO2 emissions(carbon tax)per passenger kilometre could play an important role in containing the attractiveness of private vehicle use and of encouraging the renewal of all fleets to more efficient,or electric,vehicles.Accessibility Congestion

333、in urban areas of Southeast Asia is already considered a problem,having consequences for the environment,health and the economy(OECD,2018b).Manila in the Philippines and Bangkok in Thailand rank among the top ten most congested cities in the world,according to a congestion index compiled by TomTom(TomTom,2021).Transport policies and urban planning will need to address issues relating to congestion