1、Coffee Market Report November 2022 1 Despite another 12.3%setback in November,I-CIP remains firm and stabilises at around the 160 US cent/lb mark.The ICO Composite Indicator Price(I-CIP)decreased by 12.3%from October to November 2022,averaging 156.66 US cents/lb for the latter,whilst posting a media

2、n value of 156.83 US cents/lb.The I-CIP averaged 152.05 and 160.14 US cents/lb in July and August 2021,respectively.Average prices for all group indicators decreased in November 2022.The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential suffered a month-on-month loss of 57.2%,closing in at 9.37 US cents/lb f

3、or November 2022.The arbitrage between the New York and London Futures markets shrunk by 17.5%,falling to 82.13 US Cents/lb in November 2022 from 99.56 US cents/lb in October 2022 as the price decline was more marked for Arabica than Robusta.Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP increased 2.2 percentage

4、 points between October and November 2022,reaching 9.3%.The New York certified stocks increased by 45.3%from September 2022,closing in at 0.59 million bags,whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.45 million bags,a decrease of 4.6%.Global exports of green beans in October 2022 totalled 8.

5、5 million bags,compared with 8.72 million bags in the same month of the previous year,down by 2.5%.The Brazilian Naturals alone started the new coffee year with an uptick of 0.5%.Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 4.1%to 0.94 million bags in October 2022 from 0.98 million bags in October 20

6、21,while shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 4.3%in October 2022 to 1.3 million bags from 1.36 million bags in the same period last year.Export of Robustas in coffee year 2022/23 fell by 4.8%to 2.82 million bags from 2.96 million bags in October 2021.Total exports of soluble coffee increased b

7、y 10.9%in October 2022 to 1.19 million bags from 1.07 million bags in October 2021.Exports of roasted beans decreased by 18.0%in October 2022 to 61,226 bags from 74,697 bags in October 2021.In October 2022,South Americas exports of all forms of coffee decreased marginally by 0.2%to 4.99 million bags

8、.Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia&Oceania totalled 3.17 million bags in October 2022,10,000 bags higher than in October 2021.Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 2.4%to 1.1 million bags in October 2022 from 1.13 million bags in October 2021.In October 2022,exports of all f

9、orms of coffee from Mexico&Central America were down 14.6%to 0.49 million bags as compared with 0.57 million in October 2021.Coffee Market Report November 2022 2 Green Coffee Price The ICO Composite Indicator Price(I-CIP)decreased by 12.3%from October to November 2022,averaging 156.66 US cents/lb fo

10、r the latter,whilst posting a median value of 156.83 US cents/lb.The I-CIP averaged 152.05 and 160.14 US cents/lb in July and August 2021,respectively.In November 2022,the I-CIP fluctuated in between 151.39 and 164.17 US cents/lb.Average prices for all group indicators decreased in November 2022.The

11、 Colombian Milds and Other Milds,decreased by 14.8%and 10.9%,respectively,month on month in November.The former averaged 223.22 US cents/lb in November 2022,whilst the latter averaged 213.85 US cents/lb.The Brazilian Naturals fell by 13.4%to 166.54 US cents/lb.The Robustas fell below the 100 US cent

12、s/lb mark,averaging 92.59 US cents/lb for the month of November,a 10.1%decline from the previous month.The downturns are in part due to the average 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE New York futures market,which lost 14.0%in November 2022 over October 2022.The average of the 2nd and 3rd positions of

13、the ICE Futures Europe for the Robustas also shrank by 10.3%.The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential suffered a month-on-month loss of 57.2%,closing in at 9.37 US cents/lb for November 2022.The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals and Colombian Milds-Robustas differentials declined by 18.7%and 17

14、.8%to 56.68 and 130.63 US cents/lb in November 2022,respectively.Falling the least was the Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential,declining by only 1.0%,to 47.31 US cents/lb.The Other Milds-Robustas differential lost 11.5%from October to November 2022 reaching 121.26 US cents/lb.The Brazilian N

15、aturals-Robusta differential retracted 17.2%to 73.95 US cents/lb for the aforementioned period.Coffee Market Report November 2022 3 The arbitrage between the New York and London Futures markets shrunk by 17.5%,falling to 82.13 US Cents/lb in November 2022 from 99.56 US cents/lb in October 2022 preci

16、pitated by the faster rate of price decline of Arabica compared with Robusta.Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP increased 2.2 percentage points between October and November 2022,reaching 9.3%.Robustas and the London futures market were the least volatile amongst all group indicators,at 7.2%and 7.1%,r

17、espectively,in November 2022.The Brazilian Naturals volatility was the highest amongst the group indicators,averaging 11.9%,a 2.3 percentage point increase from the previous month.The variation in volatility of the Colombian Milds and Other Milds for October to November 2022 is 3.6 to 11.0%and 2.0 t

18、o 9.6%,respectively.The New York futures market remained the most volatile,posting an increase of 2.7 percentage points,averaging 12.5%for the month of November 2022.Coffee Market Report November 2022 4 The New York certified stocks increased by 45.3%from the previous month,closing in at 0.59 millio

19、n bags,whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.45 million bags,representing a decrease of 4.6%.Exports by Coffee Groups Green Beans Global exports of green beans in October 2022 totalled 8.5 million bags,compared with 8.72 million bags in the same month of the previous year,down 2.5%.The

20、 downturn was spread across most of the coffee groups,with the Brazilian Naturals alone starting the new coffee year on a positive footing with an uptick of 0.5%,the third consecutive months of positive growth,exporting 3.44 million bags of green beans.The positive start to the new coffee year made

21、by the Brazilian Naturals was driven by Brazil,the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals,with a 1.9%increase in the exports of green beans,outweighing the downturns of the other major origins of the Brazilian Naturals group Ethiopia(-10.9%),Uganda(-6.0%)and Vietnam(-19.5%).Exports

22、of the Colombian Milds decreased by 4.1%to 0.94 million bags in October 2022 from 0.98 million bags in October 2021,driven by the contractions in Colombia and Tanzania whose exports of green beans were down 6.0%and 2.3%,respectively.Within this coffee group,Kenya alone started the new coffee year on

23、 a bright note,exporting an additional 46.2%of green beans in October 2022 as compared with October 2021.The decline in October 2022 is the fourth in a row for Colombia,and another month in which production is at fault for the decreasing exports in October 2022 Colombias coffee output fell by 12%.Th

24、e Colombian Coffee Growers Federation(FNC)attributed the decline in production to excess rains due to the La Nia event,which translated into excess water,less sunlight,and fewer blooms in coffee plantations.Coffee Market Report November 2022 5 Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 4.3%in October

25、 2022 to 1.3 million bags from 1.36 million bags in the same period last year.Guatemala(-28.0%),Honduras(-49.2%)and Peru(-8.4%)were behind this fall.In Honduras,the coffee industry continues to struggle with leaf-rust,which is affecting production,while Guatemalas output is being hampered due to cli

26、matic reasons and the availability of labour,all of which are having a knock-on effect on the countries exports.Of the four coffee groups,the Robustas have recorded the worst performance in the new coffee year 2022/23,with exports falling by 4.8%to 2.82 million bags from 2.96 million bags.With the e

27、xception of India and Indonesia,all major origins within the Robustas group saw their exports of green beans fall in October 2022 Uganda(-6.0%)and Vietnam(-19.5%).Uganda is still facing drought in most of its coffee-growing regions,which has led and is continuing to lead to lower outputs and,subsequ

28、ently,lower exports.Exports by Regions All Forms of Coffee In October 2022,South Americas exports of all forms of coffee decreased marginally by 0.2%to 4.99 million bags.The marginality of the growth rate was largely the result of increases in the exports of Brazil(1.1%)and Ecuador(48.3%),edged by t

29、he decreases in exports of Colombia(-2.3%)and Peru(-9.4%).Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia&Oceania totalled 3.17 million bags in October 2022,10,000 bags greater than in October 2021.The regions miniscule growth rate,however,belies the strong growth rates amongst the major origins;India and

30、Indonesia made gains of 15.1%to 0.54 million bags and 34.5%to 1.12 million bags,respectively,while Vietnam suffered a 19.5%fall to 1.37 million bags.Coffee Market Report November 2022 6 Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 2.4%to 1.1 million bags in October 2022 from 1.13 million

31、bags in October 2021.Ethiopia and Uganda were the two main origins behind the regions downturn in exports in October 2022,with the respective growth rates of shipped coffee at-10.9%and-6.0%.The fact that Africas decrease of exports was softer than as suggested by the growth rates of the regions top

32、two biggest exporters is down to the counterweights of Burundi(316.7%),Cte dIvoire(83.2%)and Kenya(46.3%).However,the greater-than-normal growth rates of the three origins do not reflect fundamental changes to the respective domestic coffee industries,but are technical anomalies due to large negativ

33、e growth rates in October 2021.Burundis exports of all forms of coffee were down 66.5%and Cte dIvoire and Kenya by 79.1%and 54.1%,respectively.In October 2022,exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico&Central America were down 14.6%to 0.49 million bags as compared with 0.57 million in October 2021.

34、Of the 12 origins in the region only the Dominican Republic(10.5%),Mexico(1.1%)Nicaragua(24.6%)and Trinidad&Tobago(259.2%)saw exports increase in October 2022.Honduras exports fell by 49.2%in October 2022,with the volume of all forms of coffee shipped decreasing to 40,842 bags as compared with 80,32

35、8 bags.The origin continues to suffer from the impact of leaf-rust which affected the output of coffee year 2021/22 and is now having an adverse effect in the supply available for export.Of the regions major origins(million bags and over),Costa Rica suffered the steepest fall,with its exports fallin

36、g by 68.9%in October 2022 to 9,216 bags,as compared with 13,052 bags in the same period a year ago.The volume shipped in October 2022 is the lowest since September 1976,when 7,093 bags were exported.Costa Ricas coffee institute,ICAFE,cites lower-than-expected production in coffee year 2021/22 as the

37、 reason for the drop in exports.Coffee Market Report November 2022 7 Exports of Coffee by Forms Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 10.9%in October 2022 to 1.19 million bags from 1.07 million bags in October 2021.The share of soluble coffee in the total exports of all forms of coffee was 9.

38、5%(measured on a moving 12-month average)in October 2022 as compared with 8.9%in October 2021.Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee,and the country shipped 291,345 bags in October 2022,down 6.2%from 310,731 bags in October 2021.The second and third placed origins,India and Indonesia,howev

39、er started the new coffee year at a gallop,with their soluble coffee exports up 25.0%and 33.7%,at 180,000 bags and 397,805 bags,respectively,in October 2022.Exports of roasted beans decreased by 18.0%in October 2022 to 61,226 bags from 74,697 bags in October 2021.Production and Consumption The lates

40、t provisional outlook for total production in coffee year 2022/23 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags,a 2.1%decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags in the previous coffee year.World coffee consumption is projected to grow by 3.3%to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2022/23 as compared to 164.9 mil

41、lion for coffee year 2020/21.In 2022/23,consumption is expected to exceed production by 3.1 million bags.Coffee Market Report November 2022 8 Table 1:ICO daily indicator prices and futures prices(US cents/lb)ICO Composite Colombian MildsOther MildsBrazilian NaturalsRobustasNew York*London*Monthly av

42、eragesDec-21203.06290.57267.71230.26112.76234.14104.14Jan-22204.29294.93271.08233.80109.71236.13101.06Feb-22210.89306.36279.83245.05109.44245.38100.58Mar-22194.78285.81258.49222.03103.82222.4495.21Apr-22198.37292.64265.40226.11103.96225.3795.07May-22193.71286.44260.42217.84103.10218.6194.31Jun-22202

43、.46301.57273.69230.40103.81229.3894.48Jul-22190.82286.07255.91214.80100.44210.8489.60Aug-22200.11295.66268.43221.91109.65218.5398.75Sep-22199.63294.09267.49219.59111.36218.24100.49Oct-22178.54261.95240.08192.27103.01191.7292.16Nov-22156.66223.22213.85166.5492.59164.8082.67%change between Sep-22 and

44、Oct-22-12.3%-14.8%-10.9%-13.4%-10.1%-14.0%-10.3%Volatility(%)Oct-227.1%7.4%7.6%9.6%5.8%9.8%5.7%Nov-229.3%11.0%9.6%11.9%7.2%12.5%7.1%Variation between Oct-22 and Nov-222.23.62.02.31.42.71.4*Average prices for 2nd and 3rd positionsTable 2:Price differentials(US cents/lb)Colombian MildsOther MildsColom

45、bian MildsBrazilian NaturalsColombian MildsRobustasOther MildsBrazilian NaturalsOther MildsRobustasBrazilian NaturalsRobustasNew York*London*Oct-2117.8158.89153.6341.08135.8294.74109.69Nov-2120.6160.66170.1640.05149.55109.50123.64Dec-2122.8660.31177.8137.45154.95117.50130.00Jan-2223.8561.13185.2237.

46、28161.37124.09135.07Feb-2226.5261.30196.9234.78170.39135.61144.80Mar-2227.3363.79181.9936.46154.66118.21127.23Apr-2227.2466.53188.6839.28161.44122.15130.30May-2226.0268.60183.3442.57157.32114.75124.30Jun-2227.8871.18197.7643.29169.88126.59134.90Jul-2230.1671.27185.6341.10155.46114.36121.24Aug-2227.2

47、373.75186.0146.52158.78112.26119.79Sep-2226.6074.50182.7447.90156.13108.23117.74Oct-2221.8769.68158.9447.82137.0789.2599.56Nov-229.3756.68130.6347.31121.2673.9582.13%change between Sep-22 and Oct-22-57.2%-18.7%-17.8%-1.0%-11.5%-17.2%-17.5%*Average prices for 2nd and 3rd positionsCoffee Market Report

48、 November 2022 9 Table 4:Total exports by exporting countriesOct-21Oct-22%change2021/222022/23%changeTOTAL9,871 9,686 -1.9%9,871 9,686 -1.9%Arabicas6,386 6,298 -1.4%6,386 6,298 -1.4%Colombian Milds1,061 984 -7.3%1,061 984 -7.3%Other Milds1,599 1,529 -4.4%1,599 1,529 -4.4%Brazilian Naturals3,726 3,78

49、5 1.6%3,726 3,785 1.6%Robustas3,485 3,389 -2.8%3,485 3,389 -2.8%In thousand 60-kg bagsMonthly trade statistics are available on the ICO website at www.ico.org/trade_statistics.aspYear to Date Coffee YearTable 5:Certified stocks on the New York and London futures marketsDec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22

50、May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22New York1.661.391.081.231.201.161.040.770.720.450.410.59London1.661.571.541.631.561.711.761.801.611.591.521.45In million 60-kg bagsCoffee Market Report November 2022 10 Explanatory Note for Table 3 For each year,the Secretariat uses statistics received from

51、Members to provide estimates and forecasts for annual production,consumption,trade and stocks.As noted in paragraph 100 of document ICC 120-16,these statistics can be supplemented and complemented by data from other sources when information received from Members is incomplete,delayed or inconsistent

52、.The Secretariat also considers multiple sources for generating supply and demand balance sheets for non-Members.The Secretariat uses the concept of the marketing year,that is the coffee year commencing on 1 October of each year,when looking at the global supply and demand balance.Coffee-producing c

53、ountries are located in different regions around the world,with various crop years,i.e.the 12-month period from one harvest to the next.The crop years currently used by the Secretariat commence on 1 April,1 July and 1 October.To maintain consistency,the Secretariat converts production data from a cr

54、op year basis to a marketing year basis depending on the harvest months for each country.Using a coffee year basis for the global coffee supply and demand,as well as prices,ensures that analysis of the market situation occurs within the same time period.For example,the 2018/19 coffee year began on 1

55、 October 2018 and ended 30 September 2019.However,for producers with crop years commencing on 1 April,the crop year production occurs across two coffee years.Brazils 2018/19 crop year began on 1 April 2018 and finished 31 March 2019,covering the first half of coffee year 2018/19.However,Brazils 2019

56、/20 crop year commenced 1 April 2019 and ended 31 March 2020,covering the latter half of coffee year 2019/20.In order to bring the crop year production into a single coffee year,the Secretariat would allocate a portion of the AprilMarch 2018/19 crop year production and a portion of the AprilMarch 20

57、19/20 production into 2018/19 coffee year production.It should be noted that while estimates for coffee year production are created for each individual country,these are made for the purpose of creating a consistent aggregated supply-demand balance for analytical purposes and does not represent the

58、production occurring on the ground within the individual countries.Note:Materials provided may be used,reproduced,or transmitted,in whole or in part,in any form or by any means,electronic or mechanical,including photocopying,recording or the use of any information storage and retrieval system,if the International Coffee Organization(ICO)is clearly acknowledged as the source.*