1、U N I T E D N AT I O N S C O N F E R E N C E O N T R A D E A N D D E V E L O P M E N T COVID-19 AND TOURISM COVID-19 AND TOURISM ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES EMBARGO The contents of this report must not be quoted or summarized in the print, broadcast or electronic media before 1 July 2020, 13

2、:00 GMT (15:00 Geneva) 2COVID-19 AND TOURISM: ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES TABLE OF CONTENT 2020, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United

3、Nations or its officials or Member States. The designations employed and the presentation of material on any map in this work do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorit

4、ies, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. This document has not been formally edited. 3TABLE OF CONTENT The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant disruptions in the global economy. By the end of the first quarter of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had brought international t

5、ravel to an abrupt halt and significantly impacted the tourism industry. For many developed and developing countries, the tourism sector is a major source of employment, government revenue and foreign exchange earnings. Without this vital lifeline, many countries may experience a dramatic contractio

6、n in GDP and a rise in unemployment. Using a computable general equilibrium model (GTAP), we assess the implications of the COVID-19 crisis on the tourism sector. Depending on the duration of the global lockdown, the paper estimates the direct and indirect costs of the shutdown for 65individual coun

7、tries and regions and 65sectors, covering the global economy. In some countries, unemployment could rise by more than 20 percentage points and some sectors could nearly be wiped out if the duration of the tourism standstill is up to one year. Further the paper puts forward policy recommendations for

8、 governments to avert the worst effects and facilitate recovery. Abstract 4COVID-19 AND TOURISM: ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES Table of Contents References 19 Acknowledgements 4 6 6 7 7 1010 1111 1212 1717 Introduction Tourism in the CGE model GTAP Results How the COVID-19 crisis hits tourism

9、Scenarios Implications and conclusions 5COVID-19 AND TOURISM: ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES TABLE OF CONTENT Acknowledgements This paper has been written by Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan, Ralf Peters and David Vanzetti under the overall guidance of Pamela Coke Hamilton, Director, Division on

10、International Trade and Commodities, UNCTAD. This paper has benefited from the contributions of: Lien Huong Do, from the Australian National University; Sumathi Chakravarthy, from Infinite Sum Modelling LLC, Seattle; and Jeanelle Clarke, Graham Mott, Alessandro Nicita, Tansug Ok, Carlos Razo, Claudi

11、a Roethlisberger, and Simonetta Zarrilli Traeger from UNCTAD. Graphic design and desktop publishing were done by Nadege Hadjemian. 6COVID-19 AND TOURISM: ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES TABLE OF CONTENT Introduction By June 2020, COVID-19 infected over 10 million people and caused the deaths of

12、over 500,000worldwide (WHO1). Globally, the spread shows no sign of abating. Although daily cases in Europe and Western Pacific are declining, they are increasing in the Americas, South East Asia and Africa. In response, most countries have closed their borders to visitors and tourists. The UN World

13、 Tourism Organization2 reported during the second quarter of 2020 for the first time ever that 100 per cent of global destinations introduced travel restrictions. As a result, international tourism has been almost totally suspended, and domestic tourism curtailed by lockdown conditions imposed in ma

14、ny countries. Although some destinations have started slowly to open up, many are afraid of international travel or cannot afford it due to the economic crisis. Tourism is a critical sector of the international economy. In 2019, the tourism sector accounted for 29 per cent of the worlds services exp

15、orts and about 300 million jobs globally.3 It is an important source of income and employment for developed and developing countries. The global contraction in tourism arrivals could have devastating economic consequences as some developing countries are highly dependent on tourism. In some countrie

16、s, such as several small island developing states (SIDS), tourism accounts for more than half of the GDP. This paper focuses on the potential economic effects of the halt of tourism, in the short and medium term, in the major tourist destinations as well as in those countries highly dependent on tou

17、rism (as a share of GDP). In this context, special attention is placed on developing countries where the prosperity of some communities can be seriously compromised by the fall of tourism revenues. The paper considers three different scenarios to quantify the impact of the reduction in global touris

18、m on country incomes, trade and employment using a general equilibrium model which captures the backward and forward linkages between sectors. The paper concludes with policy implications. 1 https:/covid19.who.int/ accessed 26 June 2020. 2 https:/www.unwto.org/news/covid-19-travel-restrictions 3 htt

19、ps:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/9789284421152 Beboy - Adobe Stock 7COVID-19 AND TOURISM: ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES TABLE OF CONTENT How the COVID-19 crisis hits tourism Tourism is one of the fastest growing economic sectors and is an important driver of economic growth and development

20、. In 2018 there were 1,407 million international tourist arrivals, a six per cent increase on the previous year.4 Tourism receipts amounted to $1,480 billion, an increase by 4.4. percent, higher than global GDP growth as in the previous 8 years. Passenger transport is worth another $250billion. Tour

21、ism exports account for seven per cent of global trade in goods and services, or $1.7trillion. In 2019, the most popular destinations were France, Spain, the USA and China. Tourism is a major source of employment globally. The labour market has some distinguishing features. The industry is labour-in

22、tensive in nature. A high proportion of the jobs are undertaken by women, 54 per cent, significantly higher than in most other sectors, and young employees, meaning the industry is seen as inclusive. However, women are more likely to be entrepreneurs in tourism than in other sectors and most women h

23、old low skilled jobs in the tourism sector, making them vulnerable to shocks. There is also a significant amount of indirect employment in construction and infrastructure development, plus supplying food and drink and souvenirs to tourists. Furthermore, many employees have direct contact with touris

24、ts in travel agencies, airlines, ships, hotels, restaurants, shopping centres and various tourist attractions. COVID-19 is a health and economic crisis on a global scale. While little is known at this time about many aspects of the disease (such as asymptomatic transmission, preventative measures, p

25、ossible treatments, the likelihood of a vaccine and long term effects), it is generally agreed that the virus is easily transmissible and that the fatality rate is low when compared to previous pandemics such as SARS, Ebola and the bubonic plague. Fatalities are heavily skewed towards older people a

26、nd those with existing ailments. To slow the spread of the virus, many countries have encouraged or mandated the use of sanitary practices such as hand washing, social (spatial) distancing and isolation. Government have introduced a slew of policy measures such as targeted testing and tracing, lockd

27、own measures, upgrading public health facilities and closure of borders. The measures have impacted many industries and the delivery of personal services, resulting in demand and supply side shocks. International tourism is among the economic sectors most impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Unite

28、d Nations World Tourism Organization (UN WTO) estimates a loss of 850 million to 1.1 billion international tourist arrivals, $910 million to $1.1 trillion in export revenues and 100-120 million jobs, depending on whether the borders are opened in July, September or December. Most destinations were e

29、ntirely closed in April and May 2020, opening only in some regions slowly for the northern summer. UN WTO projections reflect considerable uncertainty about the duration of the pandemic, in addition to the government response to support economic activity. 4 Data in this section is from UN WTO (2020)

30、. 5 Zarrilli and Aydiner-Avsar (2020) provide an overview of female employment in the tourism sector in SIDS countries and how they might be affected by the COVID-19 crisis. Bgui yong nian - Adobe Stock 8COVID-19 AND TOURISM: ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES TABLE OF CONTENT For Least Developed C

31、ountries (LDCs), tourism is also an important sector contributing 9.5 per cent to their GDP on average.6 For 42 out of 47 Least Developed Countries, tourism is considered a key sector of the economy.7 Some larger high or middle income countries, such as Croatia, Greece and Thailand, also depend sign

32、ificantly on tourism with a share of inbound tourism between 8 and 18per cent. Countries most dependent on tourism include many small economies and notably, SIDS (Coke Hamilton, 2020). This is illustrated in Figure 1 which shows the inbound tourism as a share of GDP in the 20 most dependent countrie

33、s. Common characteristics among these countries include small domestic markets, a low degree of export diversification and remoteness. As a result, these economies are highly vulnerable to external shocks and thus, are among the most impacted by COVID-19. It is anticipated that the economic blow to

34、SIDS will result in record amounts of revenue losses without the alternative sources of foreign exchange revenues necessary to service external debt and pay for imports.8 Figure 1. Inbound tourism expenditure as share of GDP, selected economies, 2018 Source: UN WTO (2020). Note: * SIDS Macao, China7

35、4% 60% 58% 53% 45% 38% 37% 36% 35% 30% 26% 25% 25% 22% 22% 22% 22% 20% 20% 20% Antigua and Barbuda Maldives Saint Lucia Grenada Seychelles Vanuatu Anguilla Saint Kitts and Nevis Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Cabo Verde Belize Fiji Samoa Montenegro Dominica Georgia Montserrat Croatia Jamaica 6 COV

36、ID-19 hitting tourism hard: What does this mean for the worlds poorest countries? May 13, 2020. Brendan Vickers, Salamat Ali, Deanna Ramsay. 7 Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF), trade4devnews.enhancedif.org. 8 Impact of COVID-19 on Tourism in Small Island Developing States (2020), Pamela Coke-Hami

37、lton 9COVID-19 AND TOURISM: ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES TABLE OF CONTENT In addition to inbound tourist expenditure, tourism also has indirect effects on the economy. Tourism employs labour, capital (ports and airports), and a host of intermediate inputs such as financial services, education

38、, food and alcohol, and domestic travel. Due to the remoteness of many SIDS, travel to these destinations is expensive for consumers in important export markets such as North America, Europe and Asia. Consumers are limited to air and sea travel to reach these destinations. Given the current public h

39、ealth and safety concerns, these transportation options are not feasible at this time for many international tourists. The dramatic reduction in global demand for international travel has caused significant setbacks in key industries, most evidently the cruise and airline industries. Amid travel res

40、trictions, the cruise industry has suspended sailing until September 2020. The industry has seen record losses in share prices amongst the top three cruise lines - Carnival, Norwegian Cruise Line and Royal Caribbean Cruises.9 For example, Carnivals share price dropped 70 per cent in the first quarte

41、r of 2020, However, booking for 2021 are 40 per cent up on 2019, according to data from industry sources, but this may reflect postponed booking from 2020.10 As of April 2020, the airline industry (IATA) has recorded an 80 per cent drop in flights when compared to the same period in 2019. In the IAT

42、A financial outlook for the global air transport industry, it showed that airlines are expected to lose $84.3 billion in 2020.11 Frankfurts passenger numbers, home of Europes biggest airline Lufthansa, dropped by 97 per cent in April. The situation is even worse in some other airports, such as Lima

43、with a drop of 99 per cent. Chilis LATAM airline, Latin Americas biggest carrier, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, and Lufthansa survived only with a 9 billion bailout. IATA reports that passenger numbers may not recover to 2019 levels until 2023-24. Domestic flights will recover much soo

44、ner, reflecting the closed international borders and uncertainty about the safety of long-distance air travel. Some 40 per cent of respondents to an IATA survey said they would wait at least six months after restrictions were lifted before resuming travel (IATA 2020). Tourist travel is discretionary

45、 spending and a global recession will dampen consumers enthusiasm for international travel. In particular because ticket prices may increase if social distance measures have to be observed in planes and airports. The bankruptcy of several airlines may also increase the cost of air travel. Taken alto

46、gether, the availability and accessibility of transportation will have a profound impact on the financial recovery for many tourism dependent economies. Many predictions do not anticipate a return to normal levels in the short term for the tourism sector. 9 september/#303766e75b76 10 11 https:/www.i

47、ata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-06-09-01/ 10COVID-19 AND TOURISM: ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES TABLE OF CONTENT Tourism in the CGE model GTAP Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models capture intersectoral relationships as specified in input- output tables, which show the inputs used in produc

48、tion in each sector. CGE models also link countries through bilateral trade in goods and services. They are designed to show the economy wide effects of changes in tariffs, transport costs, productivity changes and other exogenous shocks. The CGE model used here is GTAP, a multi-country and multi-se

49、ctoral model fully documented in Hertel and Tsigas (1997). The current version of the GTAP database (V10) include sectors “Accommodation, food and services” and “Recreation and other services” which covers most tourist expenditure.12 Travellers expenditure is allocated across sectors, as described in the GTAP documentation: “Travelers expenditures” includes spending abroad by tourists, people working overseas for short periods, and the like. The balance of payments statistics treats these expenditures as a single services commodity. B