1、 Brussels,February 2023 FOREWORD.4 TABLE OF CONTENTS.5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.6 1.TOURISM PERFORMANCE SUMMARY 2022.9 2.GLOBAL TOURISM FORECAST SUMMARY.13 3.RECENT INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE.14 .14 .17 4.SPECIAL FEATURE:LONG-HAUL TRAVEL RECOVERY.20 5.KEY SOURCE MARKET PERFORMANCE.25 6.ORIGIN MARKET SHARE ANALYS

2、IS.37 7.ECONOMIC OUTLOOK.49 APPENDIX 1.56 APPENDIX 2.57 123-63-65-62-56-52-36-27-22-21-28-32-26-32-34-20-10-13-12-12-11-17-15-13-13Jan-21Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22-70-60-50-40-30-20-100Sou

3、rce:Eurocontrol%change vs.2019,no.flights5-100-80-60-40-2002040TrkiyePortugalSerbiaSwedenMontenegroPolandIcelandLithuaniaSpainLuxembourgMaltaCroatiaMonacoSwitzerlandFinlandLatviaNorwayGreeceDenmarkSloveniaBulgariaCyprusGermanyAustriaSlovakiaRomaniaBelgiumEstoniaCzech Rep.HungaryArrivalsNightsSource:

4、TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2022 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levelsTurkey,77.3%(A)-55-35-15525SerbiaDenmarkTrkiyeCroatiaLuxembourgPortugalGreeceIcelandNorwaySpainMontenegroBelgiumSloveniaNetherlandsSwedenMonacoAustriaItalyBulgariaMaltaCyprusPolandSwitzerlandHungaryGermanyFin

5、landEstoniaCzech Rep.RomaniaSlovakiaLithuaniaUKLatviaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2022 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levels -4-2024689200023USEurozoneUKSource:Oxford Economics/Haver AnalyticsAnnual%change 0204060801001201401

6、6020200001202207Asia PacificAfricaMENorth AmericaLatin AmericaSource:OAGRelative to 2019 levels -100-80-60-40-200Jan-21Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Total3mth mavSource:IATA%ch

7、ange 2019,RPKAfricaAsia/PacificEuropeLatin AmericaMid.EastN.AmericaWorld-70-60-50-40-30-20-100Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Source:IATA%change vs.2019,RPK-63-65-62-56-52-36-27-22-21-28-32-26-32-34-20-10-13-12-12-11-17-15-13-13Jan-21Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21Jan-22Fe

8、b-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22-70-60-50-40-30-20-100Source:Eurocontrol%change vs.2019,no.flightsGreeceCroatiaPortugalSerbiaSpainCyprusIrelandNorwayItalyBulgariaSloveniaLuxembourgFranceSwitzerlandMontenegroPolandRomaniaMaltaUKNetherlandsBelgiumDenmarkLithuaniaHungary

9、EstoniaAustriaSwedenGermanyFinlandSlovakiaLatviaCzech Rep.Total*-40-30-20-100102030latest rolling 3 month average vs.same period 2019pp improvement vs.previous rolling 3 month averageSource:Eurocontrolbased on data to December 2022%change vs.2019,no.flightsAfricaAsia/PacificEuropeLatin America Middl

10、e EastN.AmericaWorld00708090Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Source:IATALoad factor,%ASK00708090100Asia/PacificAmericasEuropeMiddle East/AfricaOccADR()RevPAR()Source:STRJan-Dec year-to-date,%change year ago-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

11、 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Long-HaulMid-HaulShort-HaulSource Tourism Economics%change compared to previous year 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Eastern EuropeWestern EuropeSource OAG%change compared to same month 20190%20%40%60%80%100%Jan 2020Jul 2020Jan 2021Jul 2021Jan 2022J

12、ul 2022Source Autralian Bureau of StatisticsRelative to 2019 levels,colour change signifies borders re-opening -70-50-30-101030CyprusSerbiaDenmarkSloveniaCroatiaIcelandLuxembourgTrkiyeNorwayGreeceMontenegroNetherlandsSwedenAustriaMonacoBelgiumPortugalSwitzerlandSpainFinlandCzech Rep.MaltaBulgariaPol

13、andHungarySlovakiaRomaniaEstoniaLatviaLithuaniaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2022 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019-60-50-40-30-20-1001020CyprusTrkiyeGreeceIcelandSerbiaMaltaDenmarkNorwayMonacoSwitzerlandSpainSloveniaLuxembourgPortugalSwedenNetherlandsFinlandBel

14、giumMontenegroCroatiaGermanyAustriaBulgariaHungaryPolandCzech Rep.EstoniaRomaniaSlovakiaLithuaniaLatviaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2022 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Cyprus,97.0%(A)-70-50-30-10103050CyprusIcelandTrkiyeNorwayMaltaPortugalSpainSwitzerlandGree

15、ceMonacoDenmarkLuxembourgSerbiaFinlandBelgiumNetherlandsCroatiaBulgariaSwedenAustriaSloveniaGermanyEstoniaMontenegroRomaniaHungaryPolandCzech Rep.SlovakiaLatviaLithuaniaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2022 year-to-date*,%change year relative to 2019Cyprus,51.9%(A)-60-5

16、0-40-30-20-TrkiyeGreeceSerbiaIcelandPortugalMontenegroCyprusSpainNorwayDenmarkCroatiaLithuaniaLuxembourgSwitzerlandMonacoFinlandSwedenBulgariaRomaniaSloveniaMaltaPolandAustriaLatviaBelgiumNetherlandsHungaryCzech Rep.GermanyEstoniaSlovakiaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by

17、 destination2022 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levels-70-50-30-10103050NorwayGreeceIcelandSerbiaDenmarkMaltaBelgiumLuxembourgSwedenSpainTrkiyeSwitzerlandCroatiaSloveniaPortugalAustriaCyprusFinlandGermanyMonacoCzech Rep.BulgariaHungaryMontenegroPolandSlovakiaLithuaniaRomaniaLatviaEstoniaArri

18、valsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2022 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levels-100-80-60-40-200SerbiaTrkiyeSloveniaCroatiaMonacoPortugalRomaniaEstoniaSwitzerlandMontenegroBulgariaHungaryFinlandPolandDenmarkGermanyLithuaniaIcelandLatviaSwedenSlovakiaNorwayMaltaAustriaBe

19、lgiumCzech Rep.GreeceCyprusArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2022 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levelsSerbia,63.2%(A)&158.6%(N)-50-40-30-20-100102030TrkiyePortugalSerbiaSwedenMontenegroPolandIcelandLithuaniaSpainLuxembourgMaltaCroatiaMonacoSwitzerlandFinlandLatv

20、iaNorwayGreeceDenmarkSloveniaBulgariaCyprusGermanyAustriaSlovakiaRomaniaBelgiumEstoniaCzech Rep.HungaryArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2022 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levelsTurkey,77.3%(A)05101520250.901.001.101.201.301.401.50Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22A

21、pr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23/$(LHS)/$(LHS)TRY/$(RHS)Source:Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics-100-90-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-10010SerbiaRomaniaSpainLatviaPolandPortugalTrkiyeMonacoSloveniaCroatiaIcelandSlovakiaHungaryBelgiumGermanyMontenegroDenmarkFinlandLithuaniaSwitzerlandCzech Rep.SwedenEstoniaAustriaNorwa

22、yArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2022 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levels-100-80-60-40-200SerbiaMontenegroRomaniaSlovakiaTrkiyeMonacoGermanyIcelandPolandSloveniaHungaryDenmarkSpainPortugalBelgiumSwitzerlandSwedenFinlandCzech Rep.NorwayCroatiaAustriaLithuaniaL

23、atviaEstoniaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2022 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Serbia,60.5%(N)-100-80-60-40-2002040SerbiaMontenegroTrkiyeMonacoPortugalIcelandFranceGermanyPolandSpainCroatiaFinlandBelgiumHungaryRomaniaSlovakiaDenmarkSwitzerlandAustriaCzech Rep.L

24、atviaNorwaySwedenArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2022 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Serbia,359.9%(A)&418.9%(N)-100-90-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-1001020TrkiyeSerbiaPortugalMonacoIcelandSpainMontenegroCyprusSwitzerlandPolandFinlandLatviaBelgiumCroatiaGermanySwedenDenm

25、arkRomaniaAustriaSloveniaHungaryGreeceLithuaniaCzech Rep.SlovakiaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2022 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Trkiye,42.1%(A)Serbia,32.6%(N)-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-100TrkiyeSerbiaMonacoCyprusMontenegroSpainPortugalPolandGermanySwedenDenmarkS

26、witzerlandHungaryIcelandBelgiumNorwayCroatiaRomaniaSlovakiaAustriaSloveniaMaltaFinlandCzech Rep.GreeceLatviaLithuaniaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2022 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019-60-50-40-30-20-100102030SerbiaMonacoIcelandSwitzerlandTrkiyeMontenegroSpainP

27、ortugalSwedenCroatiaBelgiumSloveniaFinlandRomaniaGermanyDenmarkHungaryAustriaLatviaPolandCzech Rep.SlovakiaLithuaniaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination2022 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,00020015201620

28、02020212022Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s20002320250%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern E

29、uropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020000212022Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern Eur

30、opeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s20002320250%5%10%15%20%25%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to d

31、estinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,00020000212022Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinat

32、ions outside North AmericaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s20002320250%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul

33、*market 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,50020000212022Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AmericaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s2011201320

34、021202320250%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AmericaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,00020122013

35、20002020212022Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AmericaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s20002320250%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%Northern EuropeW

36、estern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AmericaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00020000212022Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern E

37、uropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AsiaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s20002320250%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrival

38、s to destinations outside South AsiaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market 010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00020000212022Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destina

39、tions outside Northeast AsiaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s20002320250%5%10%15%20%25%30%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Northeast AsiaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul

40、*market 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020000212022Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Northeast AsiaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s20

41、002320250%5%10%15%20%25%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Northeast AsiaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000201

42、22000022Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside OceaniaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s20002320250%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%Northern EuropeWe

43、stern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside OceaniaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00020000212022Rest of WorldCentral/Eastern Eur

44、opeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to all destinations Source:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s20002320250%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals

45、 to all destinations Source:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,00020000212022Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Middle Ea

46、stSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s20002320250%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Middle East Source:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market UK7.6%6.3%0.2%

47、2.7%2.6%4.1%4.9%-1.7%0.9%9.1%France6.8%5.3%-0.2%0.0%1.6%2.5%2.5%-0.5%0.0%5.2%Germany2.6%0.4%-0.2%0.0%3.1%1.7%4.7%-0.4%0.0%7.9%Netherlands4.9%3.6%-0.6%0.0%2.7%4.2%6.1%-0.8%0.0%10.6%Italy6.7%5.1%0.2%0.0%1.9%3.8%4.4%-1.4%0.0%8.2%Spain5.5%6.0%-0.7%0.0%3.1%5.3%2.4%-2.0%0.0%8.4%Russia4.7%9.5%-1.0%-5.4%6.7

48、%-2.9%-2.5%-0.9%20.1%13.8%US5.9%8.3%-2.7%-3.4%4.7%2.1%2.9%-1.7%12.4%8.0%Canada5.0%5.0%-2.2%3.4%3.4%3.3%4.6%-2.2%8.0%6.8%Brazil5.3%3.7%-0.5%-7.7%8.3%3.0%4.2%-3.8%17.5%9.3%China8.1%12.3%0.0%3.1%0.9%2.7%1.1%0.2%7.8%1.9%Japan1.7%1.3%0.0%-6.2%-0.2%1.5%2.9%-0.2%-6.0%2.5%India8.3%9.3%-1.2%-3.2%5.1%6.8%10.1

49、%-1.5%5.7%6.7%Source:Tourism Economics based on GEM as of 13.01.2023*Unless otherwise specified*Percentage point change20212022CountryGDPConsumer expenditureUnemploy-ment*Exchange rate*InflationConsumer expenditureUnemploy-ment*Exchange rate*InflationGDP*Exchange rates measured against the euro.A po

50、sitive change indicates stronger local currency against the euro and therefore a positive impact on outbound tourism demand.A negative change indicates weaker local currency against the euro and therefore a negative impact on outbound tourism demand.-10-8-6-4-202468200212024GermanyFranceI

51、talySource:Oxford Economics%change year ago-15-10-5055201820212024Exchange rate,period average,(euro per pound)GDP,real,LCUConsumption,private,real,LCUSource:Oxford Economics%change year ago-20-15-10-50501820212024Exchange rate,period average,per euroGDP,real,LCUUnemployment ra

52、teSource:Oxford Economics*Unemployment rate is absolute%change year ago*-15-10-50500212024Exchange rate,period average,per euroConsumption,private,real,LCUUnemployment rateSource:Oxford Economics*Unemployment rate is absolute%change year ago*202020224-8-6-4-20246810ChinaIndiaRussiaBrazilSource:Oxford Economics%change year