1、ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK APRIL 2020 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK 2020 WHAT DRIVES INNOVATION IN ASIA? Special Topic: The Impact of the Coronavirus OutbreakAn Update Asian Development Outlook 2020 What Drives Innovation in Asia? After a disappointing 2019, growth prospects in developing Asia have worsened

2、 under the impact of the current health crisis. Signs of incipient recovery near the turn of this year were quickly overthrown as COVID-19 broke out in January 2020 in the regions largest economy and subsequently expanded into a global pandemic. Disruption to regional and global supply chains, trade

3、, and tourism, and the continued spread of the outbreak, leave the region reeling under massive economic shocks and fi nancial turmoil. Across Asia, the authorities are responding with policies to contain the outbreak, facilitate medical interventions, and support vulnerable businesses and household

4、s. Assuming that the outbreak is contained this year, growth is expected to recover in 2021. Especially to face down fundamental threats such as the current medical emergency, innovation is critical to growth and development. As some economies in developing Asia challenge the innovation frontier, ma

5、ny others lag. More and better innovation is needed in the region to sustain growth that is more inclusive and environmentally sustainable. Five key drivers of innovation are sound education, productive entrepreneurship, high-quality institutions, ef cient fi nancial systems, and dynamic cities that

6、 excite knowledge exchange. The journey to creating an innovative society takes long-term commitment and hardwork. About the Asian Development Bank ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacifi c, whilesustaining its ef orts to eradicate extrem

7、e poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members 49 from the region. Its main instruments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue, loans, equity investments, guarantees, grants, and technical assistance. ISBN 978-92-9262-039-4 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK 6 ADB Avenue, Man

8、daluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines www.adb.org ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK APRIL 2020 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK 2020 WHAT DRIVES INNOVATION IN ASIA? Special Topic: The Impact of the Coronavirus OutbreakAn Update Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) 2020 Asian Development

9、 Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444 www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2020. ISBN 978-92-9262-155-1 (print); 978-92-9262-156-8 (electronic); 978-92-9262-157-5 (e-book) ISSN 0117-0481 (print), 1996-725X (electronic)

10、 Publication Stock No. FLS200119-3 http:/dx.doi.org/10.22617/FLS200119-3 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily refl ect the views and policies ofthe Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does no

11、t guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specifi c companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature th

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15、 claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketingadb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wish toobtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to use theADB logo. C

16、orrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http:/www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Notes: In this publication, “$” refers to US dollars. ADB recognizes “Hong Kong” as Hong Kong, China; “China” as the Peoples Republic of China; “Korea” and “SouthKorea” as the Republic of Korea; and “Vietnam” as

17、 Viet Nam. Cover design by Anthony Victoria. Cover artwork by Atsuko Yamagata/2020. Contents Foreword Acknowledgments Definitions and assumptions Abbreviations ADO 2020Highlights Part 1Asia reels from the COVID-19 outbreak After a difficult 2019, challenges mount The impact of COVID-19 on developing

18、 AsiaAn update Annex: Tumbling global growth in the time of COVID-19 Part 2What drives innovation in Asia? Innovating for inclusive and sustainable growth Landscape of innovation in Asia Fostering innovators and aculture of innovation Conducive institutions and environment for innovators Toward a mo

19、re innovative Asia Part 3Economic trends and prospects in developing Asia Central Asia Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan East Asia Hong Kong, China Mongolia Peoples Republic of China Republic of Korea Taipei,China South Asia Afghanistan Banglade

20、sh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Southeast Asia Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Indonesia Lao Peoples Democratic Republic Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Timor-Leste Viet Nam The Pacific Fiji Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands Vanuatu Central Pacific economies North Pacific

21、 economies South Pacific economies Statistical appendix Foreword We face extraordinarily challenging times. The outbreak of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) is disrupting peoples lives and interrupting business and other economic activities around the world. Developing Asia will weaken tremendously due t

22、o the pandemic, considering the regions deep integration with the global economy through tourism, trade, and remittances. Plummeting commodity prices are also placing a severe burden on some countries. Asthedisease spreads and strict measures are imposed to contain it, rapidly undermining domestic d

23、emand and the external environment, we forecast regional growth declining from 5.2% last year to 2.2% in 2020. Growth will rebound to 6.2% in 2021, assuming that thepandemic ends this year and activity promptly normalizes. Excluding Asias high-income newly industrialized economiesHongKong, China; th

24、e Republic of Korea; Singapore; and Taipei,Chinagrowth will drop from 5.7% to 2.4% this year before recovering to 6.7% nextyear. Growth could underperform these already lowered forecasts, as the pandemic poses downside risks. Outbreaks could worsen in more countries, and containing them could take l

25、onger than currently projected. Our research sees global losses from COVID-19 ranging from $2.0 trillion to $4.1 trillion, equal to 2.3%4.8% of global GDP. It should be noted that the estimate does not take into account such factors as supply disruptions, interrupted remittances, urgent health-care

26、costs, and potential financial disruptions, as well as long-term effects on education and the economy. To mitigate these losses, effective response requires decisiveness, agility, coordination, and vigilance from policy makers and institutions throughout the region and around the world. The Asian De

27、velopment Bank has been supporting our clients, both governments and the private sector, from the early stages of the crisis and stands ready to provide further support in collaboration with other international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. In the midst of

28、 such unprecedented economic disruption, innovative thinking is vital to overcome the current difficulties and rebound quickly. The ability to think up new solutions is necessary to restore developing Asia to its impressive growth path over the past decade. With this in mind, our theme chapter discu

29、sses the strong progress Asia has already made infostering innovation. It argues for even greater efforts to advance the regions transformation from middle income to high income, while achieving more inclusive and sustainable growth. It highlights and explicates the crucial roles of sound education,

30、 innovative entrepreneurship, strong institutions, well-developed financial markets, and dynamic cities in fostering innovation. I sincerely hope that Asian Development Outlook 2020, with its near-term economic perspective and medium- to long-term policy recommendations, will be useful for policy ma

31、kers in Asia and the Pacific toward developing economic and social policies to overcome the crisis, and to make each country even more resilient, innovative, and inclusive. MASATSUGU ASAKAWA President Asian Development Bank Acknowledgments Asian Development Outlook 2020 was prepared by staff of Asia

32、n Development Bank (ADB) regional departments and resident missions under the guidance of the Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department (ERCD). Representatives of these departments met regularly as the Regional EconomicOutlook TaskForce to coordinate and develop consistent forecasts for

33、theregion. Economists in ERCD, led by Abdul Abiad, director of the MacroeconomicsResearch Division, coordinated the production of the publication, assisted by Edith Lavia. Technical and research support was provided by ShielaCamingue-Romance, Cindy Castillejos-Petalcorin, RheaManguiat Molato, Nedely

34、n Magtibay-Ramos, Pilipinas Quising, DennisSorino, PriscilleVillanueva, and MaiLin Villaruel. Additional research support was provided by Emmanuel Alano, Rosa Mia Lasam Arao, Donald Jay Bertulfo, Nina Ashley O. Dela Cruz, Christian Regie Jabagat, Jesson Pagaduan, ReizleJade Platitas, Rene Cris River

35、a, and Michael Timbang. The support provided by Mahinthan J. Mariasingham and Aiko Kikkawa Takenaka is much appreciated. The economic editorial advisors Robert Boumphrey, EricClifton, Joshua Greene, Henry Ma, Srinivasa Madhur, Richard Niebuhr, and Reza Vaez-Zadeh made substantive contributions to th

36、e country chapters and regional outlook. The support and guidance of Yasuyuki Sawada, Joseph E. Zveglich,Jr., Edimon Ginting, Juzhong Zhuang throughout production is gratefully acknowledged. Margarita Debuque-Gonzales provided editorial advice on the theme chapter and the regional outlook. Authors w

37、ho contributed the sections are bylined in each chapter. The subregional coordinators were Kenji Takamiya, Lilia Aleksanyan, and FatimaCatacutan for Central Asia; Akiko Terada-Hagiwara for East Asia; LeiLei Song and Lani Garnace for South Asia; Thiam Hee Ng and Dulce Zara for SoutheastAsia; and Romm

38、el Rabanal for thePacific. Peter Fredenburg advised on ADB style and English usage. AlvinTubiohandled typesetting and graphics generation, in which hewas assisted by Heili Ann Bravo, Elenita Pura, and Angel Love Roque. Artdirection for the cover was by Anthony Victoria, with artwork from Atsuko Yama

39、gata. Critical support for printing and publishing the report was provided by the Printing Services Unit of the ADB Office of Administrative Services and by the publications and web teams of the ADB Department of Communications. Fermirelyn Cruz and RhiaBautista-Piamonte provided administrative and s

40、ecretarial support. The Department of Communications, led by Vicky Tan and Karen Lane, planned and coordinated the dissemination of Asian Development Outlook 2020. Definitions and assumptions The economies discussed in Asian Development Outlook2020 are classified by major analytic or geographic grou

41、p. Forthepurposes of this publication, thefollowing apply: Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) comprises Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Viet Nam. In this report, the ASEAN-5 are Indo

42、nesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Developing Asia comprises the 46 members of the AsianDevelopment Bank listed below. Newly industrialized economies comprise Hong Kong, China; the Republic of Korea; Singapore; and Taipei,China. Central Asia comprises Armenia, Azerbaijan, Geor

43、gia, Kazakhstan, theKyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. East Asia comprises Hong Kong, China; Mongolia; the Peoples Republic of China; theRepublic of Korea; and Taipei,China. South Asia comprises Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

44、 Southeast Asia comprises Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste, and VietNam. The Pacific comprises the Cook Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands,

45、Nauru, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. Unless otherwise specified, the symbol “$” and the word “dollar” refer to USdollars. A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the Asian Development Outlook 2020: The establishe

46、d policies of national authorities are maintained. Real effective exchange rates remain constant at their average from 7 February to 17 March 2020. The average price of oil is $35/barrel in 2020 and $55/barrel in 2021. The 6-month London interbank offered rate (Libor) for US dollar deposits averages

47、 0.4% in 2020 and 0.1% in 2021, the European Central Bank refinancing rate averages 0.0% in both years, and the Bank of Japan overnight call rate averages 0.1% in both years. Asian Development Outlook 2020 is generally based on information available to 20 March2020. Abbreviations ADBAsian Developmen

48、t Bank ADOAsian Development Outlook ASEANAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations BISPBenazir Income Support Program in Pakistan CIFConsolidated Investment Fund in Tuvalu COVID-19coronavirus-19 disease CSPPCivil Service Pension Plan of Palau FDIforeign direct investment FSMFederated States of Micrones

49、ia FYfiscal year GDPgross domestic product GFCglobal financial crisis of 20082009 GHGgreenhouse gas GSTgoods and services tax GVCglobal value chain HFChousing finance company ICTinformation and communication technology IMFInternational Monetary Fund IPRintellectual property right ITinformation technology Lao PDR Lao Peoples Democratic Republic LiborLondon interbank offered rate LNGliquefied natural gas M1money that includes cash and checking accounts M2broad money that adds highly liquid accounts to M1 M3broad money that adds time accounts to M2 mbdmillion barre