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中国必需消费行业:HTI消费品成本指数大麦价格跌幅收窄行业期货成本普涨-230222(16页).pdf

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中国必需消费行业:HTI消费品成本指数大麦价格跌幅收窄行业期货成本普涨-230222(16页).pdf

1、 Table_yemei1 观点聚焦 Investment Focus Table_yejiao1 本研究报告由海通国际分销,海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司,海通证券印度私人有限公司,海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌,海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明,重要披露声明和免责声明,请参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer)研究报告 Research Report 22 Feb 2023 中国必需消费中国必

2、需消费 China Staples HTI 消费品成本指数:大麦价格跌幅收窄,行业期货成本普涨 HTI CGCI:The Decline of Barley Price Narrowed,the Futures Cost Rose Generally Table_Info 市盈率 P/E 股票名称 评级 目标价 2022E 2023E 百威亚太 Underperform 21.00 29 n.a.华润啤酒 Outperform 64.00 43 36 海底捞 Outperform 21.40 19 15 康师傅 Outperform 17.10 15 13 中国飞鹤 Outperform 8.

3、72 10 7 恒安国际 Neutral 55.80 9 8 九毛九 Outperform 21.68 33 24 颐海国际 Outperform 24.33 19 15 现代牧业 Outperform 1.43 7 6 澳优 Outperform 7.32 5 4 优然牧业 Outperform 5.55 4 3 资料来源:Factset,HTI Related Reports HTI 消费品成本指数:玻璃价格有所上扬,成本多数持平或微降(HTI CGCI:The Spot Price of Glass Rose,the Cost of Most Sectors Remained Flat

4、or Decreased)(15 Feb 2023)HTI 消费品成本指数:节后原材料价格回落,行业成本集体下行(HTI CGCI:Costs were Dragged Down by Raw Material Prices after the Spring Festival)(8 Feb 2023)HTI 消费品成本指数:能源价格飙升,调味品期货走高(HTI CGCI:Energy Prices Soared and Condiment Futures Rose)(18 Jan 2023)(Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary)本周本周 HTI

5、跟踪的六类消费品,现货多数收跌,期货集体收涨跟踪的六类消费品,现货多数收跌,期货集体收涨。具体来看,本周包材现货部分,除铝材价格下跌 1.37%,玻璃、瓦楞纸和 PET 塑料均较上周持平,期货端塑料价格大涨 3.48%,玻璃、纸浆紧随其后,幅度达 1.83%/1.46%,铝材微涨。直接原材料部分,本周棕榈油价格整体上扬,现货、期货上涨 3.94%/3.44%,小麦期货和蔬菜止跌反弹,涨幅达 2.98%/1.39%,大豆期货上涨 1.07%,下跌品种中,鸡肉价格下行 1.72%,大麦、原奶、豆粕和大米价格微跌。能源方面,本周油价有所回落,布油现货、期货分别下跌2.88%/2.96%。啤酒:啤酒:

6、截至 2 月 21 日,成本现货指数较上周下降 0.36%,期货指数较上周提升 0.73%。今年年初以来现货、期货指数分别累计变动1.82%/2.8%,较 去 年 同 期 现 货、期 货 指 数 分 别 累 计 变 动11.93%/12.39%。大麦价格已连续三周回落,本周跌幅进一步收窄,叠加铝材价格下行,啤酒现货成本走弱,期货端因包材价格集体上涨,带动啤酒成本上行。调味品:调味品:成本现货指数较上周下降 0.17%,期货指数较上周提升1.13%。今年年初以来现货、期货指数分别累计变动 1.68%/0.98%,较去年同期现货、期货指数分别累计变动 8.25%/10.58%。本周调味品期货成本提

7、升较多的原因是成本占比较大的大豆、塑料和玻璃期货价格提升较多,但现货端成本整体企稳。乳制品:乳制品:成本现货指数较上周下降 0.35%,期货指数较上周提升0.09%。今年年初以来现货、期货指数分别累计变动 0.29%/0.33%,较去年同期现货、期货指数分别累计变动 9.02%/1.96%。本周生鲜乳价格跌幅较上周进一步扩大,奶牛饲养成本中豆粕价格下跌 0.02元/公斤,但因纸浆期货有所走强,乳制品期货成本基本持平。方便面:方便面:成本现货指数较上周提升 0.24%,期货指数较上周提升1.83%。今年年初以来现货、期货指数分别累计变动 0.44%/0.39%,较去年同期现货、期货指数分别累计变

8、动 9.37%/6.96%。本周方便面成本小幅上行,主因棕榈油价格再度上扬,期货端叠加包材和小麦价格的提升,整体成本较现货端上涨更多。速冻食品:速冻食品:成本现货指数较上周下降 0.44%,期货指数较上周提升0.07%。今年年初以来现货、期货指数分别累计变动 1.63%/1.26%,较去年同期现货、期货指数分别累计变动 2.78%/3.54%。本周鸡肉价格延续节后回落趋势,蔬菜和小麦期货有所反弹,速冻食品现货成本走弱,期货成本持平。软饮料:软饮料:成本现货指数较上周提升 0.05%,期货指数较上周提升1.82%。今年年初以来现货、期货指数分别累计变动 1.68%/1.36%,较去年同期现货、期

9、货指数分别累计变动 7.55%/8.92%。本周软饮料期货提升较多,主因成本比重较大的塑料和纸浆价格回升导致。风险风险提示:提示:国内疫情反复,原材料价格反弹,地缘冲突加剧。Table_Author 闻宏伟闻宏伟 Hongwei Wen 陈子叶陈子叶 Susie Chen 557085100115Feb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23HAI China StaplesMSCI China 22 Feb 2023 2 Table_header1 中国必需消费中国必需消费 1.大麦大麦价格跌幅收窄价格跌幅收窄,包材期货包材期货走强走强 本周 HTI 跟踪的六类消费品,现货多数

10、收跌,期货集体收涨。具体来看,本周包材现货部分,除铝材价格下跌 1.37%,玻璃、瓦楞纸和 PET 塑料均较上周持平,期货端塑料价格大涨 3.48%,玻璃、纸浆紧随其后,幅度达1.83%/1.46%,铝材微涨。直接原材料部分,本周棕榈油价格整体上扬,现货、期货上涨 3.94%/3.44%,小麦期货和蔬菜止跌反弹,涨幅达 2.98%/1.39%,大豆期货上涨1.07%,下跌品种中,鸡肉价格下行 1.72%,大麦、原奶、豆粕和大米价格微跌。能源方面,本周油价有所回落,布油现货、期货分别下跌 2.88%/2.96%。表表 1 HTI 消费品现货成本指数消费品现货成本指数 资料来源:Wind,HTI

11、表表 2 HTI 消费品期货成本指数消费品期货成本指数 资料来源:Wind,HTI 啤酒调味品乳制品方便面速冻食品软饮料基准日2023/2/21136.00119.23116.54115.69129.40123.20上周2023/2/14136.50119.43116.96115.42129.96123.14上月2023/1/21136.10117.86116.94114.99129.76121.21今年年初2023/1/1133.56117.25116.88115.19127.32121.16去年同期2022/2/21154.42129.95128.10127.65125.89133.26-

12、0.36%-0.17%-0.35%0.24%-0.44%0.05%-0.08%1.16%-0.34%0.62%-0.28%1.64%1.82%1.68%-0.29%0.44%1.63%1.68%-11.93%-8.25%-9.02%-9.37%2.78%-7.55%较去年同期HTI消费品成本指数(现货指数)较上周较上月较今年年初日期啤酒调味品乳制品方便面速冻食品软饮料基准日2023/2/21138.02129.88105.08126.00130.19142.73上周2023/2/14137.02128.44104.98123.74130.10140.19上月2023/1/21145.70132

13、.89105.44127.51130.66144.97今年年初2023/1/1142.00128.63105.43126.49128.57140.82去年同期2022/2/21157.54145.25107.18135.42125.74156.710.73%1.13%0.09%1.83%0.07%1.82%-5.27%-2.26%-0.34%-1.18%-0.36%-1.54%-2.80%0.98%-0.33%-0.39%1.26%1.36%-12.39%-10.58%-1.96%-6.96%3.54%-8.92%较去年同期HTI消费品成本指数(期货指数)较上周较上月较今年年初日期YUjYpW

14、gUtU8VyQvN8OcMaQtRmMoMoNfQnNsQfQpNtQbRpOnNxNmNrRNZqMsP 22 Feb 2023 3 Table_header1 中国必需消费中国必需消费 2.行业行业期货成本走强期货成本走强 2.1 啤酒啤酒 截至 2 月 21 日,啤酒成本现货指数为 136,较上周下降 0.36%;啤酒成本期货指数为 138.02,较上周提升 0.73%。大麦价格已连续三周回落,本周跌幅进一步收窄,叠加铝材价格下行,啤酒现货成本走弱,期货端因包材价格集体上涨,带动啤酒成本上行。月度来看,较上月同期啤酒成本现货指数下降 0.08%,啤酒成本期货指数下降5.27%。中长期看

15、,今年年初以来啤酒成本现货指数提升 1.82%,啤酒成本期货指数下降 2.8%,较去年同期,啤酒成本现货指数下降 11.93%,啤酒成本期货指数下降12.39%。图图1 本周本周 HTI 啤酒成本现货指数啤酒成本现货指数下降下降 0.36%图图2 本周本周 HTI 啤酒成本期货指数啤酒成本期货指数提升提升 0.73%资料来源:Wind,HTI 资料来源:Wind,HTI 图图3 浮法玻璃市场价(元浮法玻璃市场价(元/吨)吨)图图4 玻璃期货价(元玻璃期货价(元/吨)吨)资料来源:Wind,HTI 资料来源:Wind,HTI 100.0110.0120.0130.0140.0150.0160.0

16、170.0180.019-0119-0720-0120-0721-0121-0722-0122-0723-01HTIHTI啤酒成本指数(现货)啤酒成本指数(现货)100.0120.0140.0160.0180.0200.019-0119-0720-0120-0721-0121-0722-0122-0723-01HTIHTI啤酒成本指数(期货)啤酒成本指数(期货)0.0500.01,000.01,500.02,000.02,500.03,000.03,500.00.0500.01,000.01,500.02,000.02,500.03,000.03,500.0 22 Feb 2023 4 Tab

17、le_header1 中国必需消费中国必需消费 2.2 调味品调味品 截至 2 月 21 日,调味品成本现货指数为 119.23,较上周下降 0.17%;调味品成本期货指数为 129.88,较上周提升 1.13%。本周调味品期货成本提升较多的原因是成本占比较大的大豆、塑料和玻璃期货价格提升较多,现货端成本基本持平。月度来看,较上月同期调味品成本现货指数提升 1.16%,调味品成本期货指数下降2.26%。中长期看,今年年初以来调味品成本现货指数提升1.68%,调味品成本期货指数提升0.98%,较去年同期,调味品成本现货指数下降8.25%,调味品成本期货指数下降 10.58%。图图5 本周本周 H

18、TI 调味品成本现货指数调味品成本现货指数下降下降 0.17%图图6 本周本周 HTI 调味品成本期货指数调味品成本期货指数提升提升 1.13%资料来源:Wind,HTI 资料来源:Wind,HTI 图图7 大豆期货收盘价(元大豆期货收盘价(元/吨)吨)图图8 白砂糖期货收盘价(元白砂糖期货收盘价(元/吨)吨)资料来源:Wind,HTI 资料来源:Wind,HTI 80.090.0100.0110.0120.0130.0140.019-0119-0720-0120-0721-0121-0722-0122-0723-01HTIHTI调味品成本指数(现货)调味品成本指数(现货)90.0110.01

19、30.0150.0170.0190.019-0119-0720-0120-0721-0121-0722-0122-0723-01HTIHTI调味品成本指数(期货)调味品成本指数(期货)3,000.03,500.04,000.04,500.05,000.05,500.06,000.06,500.07,000.04,500.05,000.05,500.06,000.06,500.0 22 Feb 2023 5 Table_header1 中国必需消费中国必需消费 2.3 乳制品乳制品 截至 2 月 21 日,乳制品成本现货指数为 116.54,较上周下降 0.35%;乳制品成本期货指数为 105.

20、08,较上周提升 0.09%。本周生鲜乳价格跌幅较上周进一步扩大,奶牛饲养成本中豆粕价格下跌 0.02 元/公斤,因纸浆期货价格有所走强,乳制品期货成本基本持平。月度来看,较上月同期乳制品成本现货指数下降 0.34%,乳制品成本期货指数下降0.34%。中长期看,今年年初以来乳制品成本现货指数下降0.29%,乳制品成本期货指数下降0.33%,较去年同期,乳制品成本现货指数下降9.02%,乳制品成本期货指数下降 1.96%。图图9 本周本周 HTI 乳制品成本现货指数乳制品成本现货指数下降下降 0.35%图图10 本周本周 HTI 乳制品成本期货指数乳制品成本期货指数提升提升 0.09%资料来源:

21、Wind,HTI 资料来源:Wind,HTI 图图11 全国玉米平均价(元全国玉米平均价(元/公斤)公斤)图图12 全国豆粕平均价(元全国豆粕平均价(元/公斤)公斤)资料来源:Wind,HTI 资料来源:Wind,HTI 80.090.0100.0110.0120.0130.0140.019-0119-0720-0120-0721-0121-0722-0122-0723-01HTIHTI乳制品成本指数(现货)乳制品成本指数(现货)70.080.090.0100.0110.0120.019-0119-0720-0120-0721-0121-0722-0122-0723-01HTIHTI乳制品成本

22、指数(期货)乳制品成本指数(期货)1.82.02.22.42.62.83.03.219-0119-0720-0120-0721-0121-0722-0122-0723-012.83.33.84.34.85.35.819-0119-0720-0120-0721-0121-0722-0122-0723-01 22 Feb 2023 6 Table_header1 中国必需消费中国必需消费 2.4 方便面方便面 截至 2 月 21 日,方便面成本现货指数为 115.69,较上周提升 0.24%;方便面成本期货指数为 126,较上周提升 1.83%。本周方便面成本小幅上行,主因棕榈油价格再度上扬,期货

23、端叠加包材和小麦价格的提升,整体成本较现货端上涨更多。月度来看,较上月同期方便面成本现货指数提升 0.62%,方便面成本期货指数下降1.18%。中长期看,今年年初以来方便面成本现货指数提升0.44%,方便面成本期货指数下降0.39%,较去年同期,方便面成本现货指数下降9.37%,方便面成本期货指数下降 6.96%。图图13 本周本周 HTI 方便面成本现货指数方便面成本现货指数提升提升 0.24%图图14 本周本周 HTI 方便面成本期货指数方便面成本期货指数提升提升 1.83%资料来源:Wind,HTI 资料来源:Wind,HTI 图图15 棕榈油棕榈油期货收盘期货收盘价(元价(元/吨)吨)

24、图图16 小麦期货价(元小麦期货价(元/吨)吨)资料来源:Wind,HTI 资料来源:Wind,HTI 80.090.0100.0110.0120.0130.0140.0150.019-0119-0720-0120-0721-0121-0722-0122-0723-01HTIHTI方便面成本指数(现货)方便面成本指数(现货)70.090.0110.0130.0150.0170.019-0119-0720-0120-0721-0121-0722-0122-0723-01HTIHTI方便面成本指数(期货)方便面成本指数(期货)02000400060008000400019-0

25、119-0720-0120-0721-0121-0722-0122-0723-012,000.02,500.03,000.03,500.04,000.0 22 Feb 2023 7 Table_header1 中国必需消费中国必需消费 2.5 速冻食品速冻食品 截至 2 月 21 日,速冻食品成本现货指数为 129.4,较上周下降 0.44%;速冻食品成本期货指数为 130.19,较上周提升 0.07%。本周鸡肉价格延续节后回落趋势,蔬菜和小麦期货有所反弹,速冻食品现货成本走弱,期货成本持平。月度来看,较上月同期速冻食品成本现货指数下降 0.28%,速冻食品成本期货指数下降0.36%。中长期看

26、,今年年初以来速冻食品成本现货指数提升1.63%,速冻食品成本期货指数提升1.26%,较去年同期,速冻食品成本现货指数提升2.78%,速冻食品成本期货指数提升 3.54%。图图17 本周本周 HTI 速冻食品成本现货指数速冻食品成本现货指数下降下降 0.44%图图18 本周本周 HTI 速冻食品成本期货指数速冻食品成本期货指数提升提升 0.07%资料来源:Wind,HTI 资料来源:Wind,HTI 图图19 白条鸡价格(元白条鸡价格(元/公斤)公斤)图图20 平均批发价平均批发价:28 种重点监测蔬菜种重点监测蔬菜 资料来源:Wind,HTI 资料来源:Wind,HTI 90.0100.01

27、10.0120.0130.0140.019-0119-0720-0120-0721-0121-0722-0122-0723-01HTIHTI速冻食品成本指数(现货)速冻食品成本指数(现货)90.0100.0110.0120.0130.0140.019-0119-0720-0120-0721-0121-0722-0122-0723-01HTIHTI速冻食品成本指数(期货)速冻食品成本指数(期货)15.016.017.018.019.020.021.022.019-0119-0720-0120-0721-0121-0722-0122-0723-013.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57

28、.019-0119-0720-0120-0721-0121-0722-0122-0723-01 22 Feb 2023 8 Table_header1 中国必需消费中国必需消费 2.6 软饮料软饮料 截至 2 月 21 日,软饮料成本现货指数为 123.2,较上周提升 0.05%;软饮料成本期货指数为 142.73,较上周提升 1.82%。本周软饮料期货提升较多,主因成本比重较大的塑料和纸浆价格回升较多导致。月度来看,较上月同期软饮料成本现货指数提升 1.64%,软饮料成本期货指数下降1.54%。中长期看,今年年初以来软饮料成本现货指数提升1.68%,软饮料成本期货指数提升1.36%,较去年同

29、期,软饮料成本现货指数下降7.55%,软饮料成本期货指数下降 8.92%。图图21 本周本周 HTI 软饮料成本现货指数软饮料成本现货指数提升提升 0.05%图图22 本周本周 HTI 软饮料成本期货指数软饮料成本期货指数提升提升 1.82%资料来源:Wind,HTI 资料来源:Wind,HTI 图图23 瓦楞纸市场价(元瓦楞纸市场价(元/吨)吨)图图24 PET 切片价格切片价格(元(元/吨)吨)资料来源:Wind,HTI 资料来源:Wind,HTI 3.风险提示风险提示 国内疫情反复,原材料价格持续高位,地缘冲突加剧。90.0100.0110.0120.0130.0140.0150.019

30、-0119-0720-0120-0721-0121-0722-0122-0723-01HTIHTI软饮料成本指数(现货)软饮料成本指数(现货)90.0110.0130.0150.0170.0190.019-0119-0720-0120-0721-0121-0722-0122-0723-01HTIHTI软饮料成本指数(期货)软饮料成本指数(期货)3,000.03,500.04,000.04,500.05,000.04,000.05,000.06,000.07,000.08,000.09,000.010,000.011,000.0 22 Feb 2023 9 Table_header2 中国必需消

31、费中国必需消费 APPENDIX 1 Summary Among the six categories of consumer goods tracked by HTI this week,most of the spot costs fell,while the futures costs rose collectively.Specifically,for the spot part of packaging materials this week,except for the aluminum(-1.37%),the prices of glass,corrugated paper an

32、d PET were flat compared with last week.The price of plastic futures rose 3.48%,and that of glass and pulp futures rose 1.83%/1.46%.For direct raw materials,palm oil spot and futures rose 3.94%/3.44.Wheat futures and vegetables rose 2.98%/1.39%,and soybean futures rose 1.07%.However,chicken prices f

33、ell 1.72%,while barley,raw milk,soybean meal and rice prices fell slightly.In terms of energy,oil distribution spot and futures fell 2.88%/2.96%respectively Risks:Repeated domestic epidemics,rebounding raw material prices,intensified geopolitical conflicts.10 Table_APPENDIX Table_disclaimer 附录附录APPE

34、NDIX 重要信息披露重要信息披露 本研究报告由海通国际分销,海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL),Haitong Securities India Private Limited(HSIPL),Haitong International Japan K.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌,海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This research report is distributed by Haitong International,a

35、 global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited(“HTIRL”),Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HSIPL”),Haitong International Japan K.K.(“HTIJKK”),Haitong International Securities Company Limited(“HTISCL”),and any other members within the Haitong Interna

36、tional Securities Group of Companies(“HTISG”),each authorized to engage in securities activities in its respective jurisdiction.HTIRL分析师认证分析师认证Analyst Certification:我,闻宏伟,在此保证(i)本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点,并且(ii)我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关;及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券,我们(包括我们的家属)在其中均不持有任

37、何财务利益。I,Hongwei Wen,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific rec

38、ommendations or views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed.我,陈子叶,在此保证(i)本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点,并且(ii)我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关;及就此报告中所讨

39、论目标公司的证券,我们(包括我们的家属)在其中均不持有任何财务利益。I,Susie Chen,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly

40、related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed.利益冲突披露利益冲突披露Conflict of Interest Disclosures 海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或

41、公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言,以下是有关该等关系的披露事项(以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏,如需了解及时全面信息,请发邮件至ERD-D)HTI and some of its affiliates may engage in investment banking and/or serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions of certain stocks or companies in this research report.As far as this research report is conc

42、erned,the following are the disclosure matters related to such relationship(As the following disclosure does not ensure timeliness and completeness,please send an email to ERD-D if timely and comprehensive information is needed).海通证券股份有限公司和/或其子公司(统称“海通”)在过去12个月内参与了1044.HK的投资银行项目。投资银行项目包括:1、海通担任上市前辅导

43、机构、保荐人或主承销商的首次公开发行项目;2、海通作为保荐人、主承销商或财务顾问的股权或债务再融资项目;3、海通作为主经纪商的新三板上市、目标配售和并购项目。Haitong Securities Co.,Ltd.and/or its subsidiaries(collectively,the Haitong)have a role in investment banking projects of 1044.HK within the past 12 months.The investment banking projects include 1.IPO projects in which H

44、aitong acted as pre-listing tutor,sponsor,or lead-underwriter;2.equity or debt refinancing projects of 1044.HK for which Haitong acted as sponsor,lead-underwriter or financial advisor;3.listing by introduction in the new three board,target placement,M&A projects in which Haitong acted as lead-broker

45、age firm.1044.HK目前或过去12个月内是海通的投资银行业务客户。1044.HK is/was an investment bank clients of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.香港华润(集团)有限公司上海代表处目前或过去12个月内是海通的客户。海通向客户提供非投资银行业务的证券相关业务服务。香港华润(集团)有限公司上海代表处 is/was a client of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.The client has been provide

46、d for non-investment-banking securities-related services.海通担任0291.HK有关证券的做市商或流通量提供者。Haitong acts as a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities of 0291.HK.11 评级定义评级定义(从(从2020年年7月月1日开始执行)日开始执行):海通国际(以下简称“HTI”)采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司:优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息,投资者应仔细阅读全文

47、而非仅看评级。在任何情况下,分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况(比如投资者的现有持仓)以及其他因素。分析师股票评级分析师股票评级 优于大市优于大市,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上,基准定义如下 中性中性,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大,基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则,我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。弱于大市弱于大市,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上,基准定义如下 各地股票基准指数:日本 TOPIX,韩国 KOSPI,台湾 TAIEX,印度 Nifty100,美国 SP500;

48、其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.Ratings Definitions(from 1 Jul 2020):Haitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperform,Neutral,or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover to investors.Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Resear

49、ch.In addition,since Haitong International Research contains more complete information concerning the analysts views,investors should carefully read Haitong International Research,in its entirety,and not infer the contents from the rating alone.In any case,ratings(or research)should not be used or r

50、elied upon as investment advice.An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances(such as the investors existing holdings)and other considerations.Analyst Stock Ratings Outperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return

51、 of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Neutral:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating fall

52、s into a hold rating category.Underperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100,US SP

53、500;for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China.评级分布评级分布Rating Distribution 截至截至2022年年12月月31日海通国际股票研究评级分布日海通国际股票研究评级分布 优于大市优于大市 中性中性 弱于大市弱于大市 (持有)海通国际股票研究覆盖率 89.4%9.2%1.5%投资银行客户*5.2%7.3%8.3%*在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。上述分布中的买入,中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市,中性和落后大市评级。只有根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则,我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含

54、非评级的股票。此前的评级系统定义(直至此前的评级系统定义(直至2020年年6月月30日):日):买入,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上,基准定义如下 中性,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大,基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则,我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。卖出,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上,基准定义如下 12 各地股票基准指数:日本 TOPIX,韩国 KOSPI,台湾 TAIEX,印度 Nifty100;其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.Haitong International Equity Researc

55、h Ratings Distribution,as of Dec 31,2022 Outperform Neutral Underperform (hold)HTI Equity Research Coverage 89.4%9.2%1.5%IB clients*5.2%7.3%8.3%*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.BUY,Neutral,and SELL in the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outper

56、form,Neutral,and Underperform.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above.Previous rating system definitions(until 30 Jun 2020):BUY:The stocks total

57、return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.NEUTRAL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.For purposes onl

58、y of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.SELL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows

59、:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100;for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China.海通国际非评级研究:海通国际非评级研究:海通国际发布计量、筛选或短篇报告,并在报告中根据估值和其他指标对股票进行排名,或者基于可能的估值倍数提出建议价格。这种排名或建议价格并非为了进行股票评级、提出目标价格或进行基本面估值,而仅供参考使用。Haitong International Non-Rated Research:Haitong International publishes quantita

60、tive,screening or short reports which may rank stocks according to valuation and other metrics or may suggest prices based on possible valuation multiples.Such rankings or suggested prices do not purport to be stock ratings or target prices or fundamental values and are for information only.海通国际海通国际

61、A股覆盖股覆盖:海通国际可能会就沪港通及深港通的中国A股进行覆盖及评级。海通证券(600837.CH),海通国际于上海的母公司,也会于中国发布中国A股的研究报告。但是,海通国际使用与海通证券不同的评级系统,所以海通国际与海通证券的中国A股评级可能有所不同。Haitong International Coverage of A-Shares:Haitong International may cover and rate A-Shares that are subject to the Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme with Shanghai and Shenzh

62、en.Haitong Securities(HS;600837 CH),the ultimate parent company of HTISG based in Shanghai,covers and publishes research on these same A-Shares for distribution in mainland China.However,the rating system employed by HS differs from that used by HTI and as a result there may be a difference in the H

63、TI and HS ratings for the same A-share stocks.海通国际海通国际优质优质100 A股股(Q100)指数指数:海通国际Q100指数是一个包括100支由海通证券覆盖的优质中国A股的计量产品。这些股票是通过基于质量的筛选过程,并结合对海通证券 A股团队自下而上的研究。海通国际每季对Q100指数成分作出复审。Haitong International Quality 100 A-share(Q100)Index:HTIs Q100 Index is a quant product that consists of 100 of the highest-qua

64、lity A-shares under coverage at HS in Shanghai.These stocks are carefully selected through a quality-based screening process in combination with a review of the HS A-share teams bottom-up research.The Q100 constituent companies are reviewed quarterly.MSCI ESG评级免责声明条款:评级免责声明条款:尽管海通国际的信息供货商(包括但不限于MSCI

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133、of the securities described herein and any representation to the contrary is an offence.Upon receipt of this research report,each Canadian recipient will be deemed to have represented that the investor is an“accredited investor”as such term is defined in section 1.1 of National Instrument 45-106 Pro

134、spectus Exemptions or,in Ontario,in section 73.3(1)of the Securities Act(Ontario),as applicable,and a“permitted client”as such term is defined in section 1.1 of NI 31-103,respectively.Notice to Singapore investors:This research report is provided in Singapore by or through Haitong International Secu

135、rities(Singapore)Pte Ltd(“HTISSPL”)Co Reg No 201311400G.HTISSPL is an Exempt Financial Adviser under the Financial Advisers Act(Cap.110)(“FAA”)to(a)advise on securities,units in a collective investment scheme,exchange-traded derivatives contracts and over-the-counter derivatives contracts and(b)issu

136、e or promulgate research analyses or research reports on securities,exchange-traded derivatives contracts and over-the-counter derivatives contracts.This research report is only provided to institutional investors,within the meaning of Section 4A of the Securities and Futures Act(Cap.289).Recipients

137、 of this research report are to contact HTISSPL via the details below in respect of any matters arising from,or in connection with,the research report:Haitong International Securities(Singapore)Pte.Ltd.10 Collyer Quay,#19-01-#19-05 Ocean Financial Centre,Singapore 049315 Telephone:(65)6536 1920 Noti

138、ce to Japanese investors:This research report is distributed by Haitong International Securities Company Limited and intended to be distributed to Financial Services Providers or Registered Financial Institutions engaged in investment management(as defined in the Japan Financial Instruments and Exch

139、ange Act(FIEL)Art.61(1),Order for Enforcement of FIEL Art.17-11(1),and related articles).Notice to UK and European Union investors:This research report is distributed by Haitong International Securities Company Limited.This research is directed at persons having professional experience in matters re

140、lating to investments.Any investment or investment activity to which this research relates is available only to such persons or will be engaged in only with such persons.Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely on this research.Haitong Intern

141、ational Securities Company Limiteds affiliates may have a net long or short financial interest in excess of 0.5%of the total issued share capital of the entities mentioned in this research report.Please be aware that any report in English may have been published previously in Chinese or another lang

142、uage.Notice to Australian investors:The research report is distributed in Australia by Haitong International Securities(Singapore)Pte Ltd,Haitong International Securities Company Limited,and Haitong International Securities(UK)Limited in reliance on ASIC Corporations(Repeal and Transitional)Instrume

143、nt 2016/396,which exempts those HTISG entities from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license under the Corporations Act 2001 in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia.A copy of the ASIC Class Orders may be obtained at the following web

144、site,www.legislation.gov.au.Financial services provided by Haitong International Securities(Singapore)Pte Ltd,Haitong International Securities Company Limited,and Haitong International Securities(UK)Limited are regulated under foreign laws and regulatory requirements,which are different from the law

145、s applying in Australia.Notice to Indian investors:The research report is distributed by Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HSIPL”),an Indian company and a Securities and Exchange Board of India(“SEBI”)registered Stock Broker,Merchant Banker and Research Analyst that,inter alia,produces and d

146、istributes research reports covering listed entities on the BSE Limited(“BSE”)and the National Stock Exchange of India Limited(“NSE”)(collectively referred to as“Indian Exchanges”).This research report is intended for the recipients only and may not be reproduced or redistributed without the written consent of an authorized signatory of HTISG.Copyright:Haitong International Securities Group Limited 2019.All rights reserved.http:/

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