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Marsh:2022Q4球保险市场指数研究报告-商业保险价格涨幅持续放缓(英文版)(18页).pdf

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Marsh:2022Q4球保险市场指数研究报告-商业保险价格涨幅持续放缓(英文版)(18页).pdf

1、Global insurance markets:Commercial insurance pricing increases continue to moderateGlobal Insurance Market Index Q4 20222Global commercial insurance pricing rose 4%in the fourth quarter of 2022,compared to 6%in the prior quarter,according to the Marsh Global Insurance Market Index(see Figure 1).The

2、 overall pace of pricing increases slowed for the eighth consecutive quarter;increases peaked at 22%in the fourth quarter of 2020.Source:Marsh Specialty and Global Placement01|Global insurance composite pricing changeQ4 182%Q1 193%Q2 196%Q3 198%Q4 1911%Q1 2014%Q2 2019%Q3 2020%Q4 2022%Q1 2118%Q2 2115

3、%15%Q3 2113%Q4 21Q1 2211%Q2 229%Q3 226%4%Q4 22The fourth quarter was the twenty-first consecutive in which composite pricing rose,continuing the longest run of increases since the inception of the index in 2012.The quarters pricing moderation was driven largely by a 6%decrease in financial and profe

4、ssional lines and the continued moderation in cyber pricing.Regionally,composite pricing increases for the fourth quarter were as follows (see Figure 2):US:3%UK:4%Europe:6%Latin America and the Caribbean:7%Asia:2%Pacific:5%*Note:All references to pricing and pricing movements in this report are aver

5、ages,unless otherwise noted.For ease of reporting,we have rounded all percentages regarding pricing movements to the nearest whole number.Global Insurance Market Index Q4 20223Source:Marsh Specialty and Global Placement02|Composite insurance pricing change by regionUSUKCont.EuropeLatin AmericaAsiaPa

6、cificQ1 2212%20%Q1 22Q1 226%Q1 226%Q1 223%Q1 2210%Q2 2210%Q2 2211%Q2 226%Q2 225%Q2 223%Q2 227%Q3 225%Q3 227%Q3 226%Q3 225%Q3 222%Q3 225%Q4 223%Q4 224%Q4 226%Q4 227%Q4 222%Q4 225%Global Insurance Market Index Q4 2022403|Composite insurance pricing change by major coverage lineGlobal PropertyGlobal Ca

7、sualtyGlobal Financial and Professional Lines*Source:Marsh Specialty and Global PlacementQ1 227%Q1 224%Q1 2226%Q2 226%Q2 226%Q2 2216%Q3 226%Q3 224%Q3 22-1%Q4 227%Q4 223%Q4 22-6%Pricing for the four major insurance product lines were:Property:+7%Casualty:+3%Financial and professional lines:-6%Cyber:+

8、28%*Note:Starting with the third quarter of 2022,the quarterly index presents the cyber data separately from financial and professional lines data,giving a clearer picture of both.Global Insurance Market Index Q4 202254%Q4 2215%2%3%6%8%11%19%20%18%14%15%13%04|US composite insurance pricing change11%

9、22%Q2 21Q4 18Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 19Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 20Q1 213%USGlobalSource:Marsh Specialty and Global PlacementQ3 21Q4 21Q1 22Q2 226%Q3 229%US pricing:Financial and professional lines decrease;property and casualty rise Insurance pricing in the fourth quarter of 2022 in the US increased by 3%,compar

10、ed to 5%in the prior quarter(see Figures 4 and 5).Property insurance pricing increased by 11%in the fourth quarter,up from 8%in the third quarter and the twenty-first consecutive quarter in which pricing rose.Total insured values increased by 10%,on average,in the fourth quarter.The pricing increase

11、s experienced by clients were largely driven by challenges in the reinsurance market leading up to the January 1 treaty renewals.The bifurcation in renewal results continued.Best-in-class risks with limited named windstorm exposure and stable capacity from the incumbent insurer typically experienced

12、 better results.Generally,clients that experienced higher increases were affected by losses and/or were predominantly located in high hazard catastrophe(CAT)zones,such as the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic coast.Global Insurance Market Index Q4 2022624%4%4%US Property10%13%18%21%22%19%15%-1%0%2%1%2

13、%5%8%8%9%US Casualty7%2%3%7%11%15%23%30%28%28%US Financial and Professional Lines25%05|US composite insurance pricing change by major coverage lineQ4 18Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 19Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 20Q1 21Source:Marsh Specialty and Global PlacementQ2 219%6%25%10%7%27%Q3 217%4%34%Q4 21Q1 227%4%28%Q2 226%6%21

14、%8%3%-6%Q3 2211%Q4 221%-10%In light of global inflation trends,underwriters continued to focus on valuation.Insurers maintained discipline regarding terms and conditions including deductibles,non-physical damage,cyber,communicable disease exclusions,and time element extensions.Casualty insurance pri

15、cing increased 1%,compared to 3%in the prior quarter;excluding workers compensation,the increase was 3%.Insurers are carefully monitoring the impact of inflation,court systems reopening,the increased number of vehicles on the roads post-pandemic,and recent hurricanes.Casualty pricing continued to be

16、 driven by workers compensation,which has helped moderate the average rate increases.Incumbent insurers proactively offered improved terms as a way to keep existing clients from marketing their program.Excess liability pricing rose 6%,compared to 7%in the prior quarter.Insurers continued to monitor

17、the severity of claims given what they perceive as recent large losses with questionable underlying liability.Global Insurance Market Index Q4 20227Financial and professional lines pricing decreased 10%in the fourth quarter,compared to a decline of 6%in the third quarter.Directors and officers(D&O)l

18、iability insurance pricing for publicly traded companies declined by 14%in the fourth quarter,compared to a decline of 9%in the third quarter.Post-transaction renewals,such as those coming one or two years out from an IPO,led the pricing decreases.Competition was strong from both new insurers and le

19、gacy markets as they sought a strong finish to 2022.Retentions decreased for approximately 10%of clients.Fiduciary markets continued to be challenged by adverse judgments,although pricing was generally flat compared to a 2%increase in the third quarter.Defense costs,settlements,and plaintiffs counse

20、l fee awards continued to drive insurer losses on Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974(ERISA)401k plan excessive fee litigation.An uptick in other ERISA allegations has insurers expressing concern that the fiduciary line is becoming unpredictable.Some insurers continued to increase minimu

21、m retentions for larger plans.Controls/401k plan risk management is key to obtaining coverage.Cyber insurance pricing increases moderated to 28%in the fourth quarter,compared to 48%in the third quarter as new entrants to the market increased capacity.In some cases,increased competition and favorable

22、 cybersecurity controls resulted in flat renewals or reductions.Claim frequency declined,while severity remained high.Privacy claims increased,including those related to online tracking and other consumer protection issues.Systemic exposures,including those related to war,continued to be a concern.G

23、lobal Insurance Market Index Q4 202284%Q4 22Q4 18Q1 19Source:Marsh Specialty and Global Placement06|UK composite insurance pricing changeQ2 19Q4 19Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 20Q1 212%Q3 198%11%19%20%22%18%14%4%UKGlobal3%6%Q2 2115%15%Q3 2113%Q4 2111%Q1 22Q2 229%6%Q3 22UK pricing:Financial and professional lin

24、es decline,cyber pricing moderatesInsurance pricing in the UK increased 4%in the fourth quarter,compared to 7%in the third quarter (see Figures 6 and 7).Property insurance pricing increased 6%,the same as in the prior quarter.Property insurance pricing continued to plateau,making a somewhat less vol

25、atile environment for clients.The market was competitive for low-to medium-hazard industries,but pricing challenges remained for those with major losses or a challenging occupancy or process,such as food production,warehousing,or waste recycling.Insurers focused on the inflationary environment aroun

26、d claims,including by increasing pricing if exposure bases were not correctly reviewed.Casualty insurance pricing increased 4%,the same as in the prior two quarters.There was a slight reduction in the pressure to increase pricing in the quarter,influenced by existing long-term agreements(LTAs),remar

27、keting exercises,and restructuring of programs.Global Insurance Market Index Q4 2022907|UK composite insurance pricing change by major coverage line20%-1%3%UK Property4%6%8%10%16%24%18%-3%-3%-1%4%3%5%5%6%6%UK Casualty7%7%7%23%28%46%64%67%90%UK Financial and Professional Lines71%Q4 18Q1 1915%Q2 19Q3

28、19Q4 19Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 20Q1 2115%7%57%Q2 217%11%54%Q3 2110%4%43%Q4 21Q1 229%3%39%6%4%19%6%4%0%Q3 22Q4 226%4%-4%Source:Marsh Specialty and Global PlacementQ2 22 For auto liability,the average cost of a claim increased by 7%to 11%over the past year,primarily due to the cost of parts and service,whic

29、h is indicative of vehicle materials and technology becoming more sophisticated and requiring specialists.Electric vehicles continued to impact the auto insurance market,with insurers citing repair costs that are 20%to 75%higher than cars with combustion engines.Financial and professional lines pric

30、ing declined 4%after being flat in the third quarter.D&O pricing declined,with decreases generally in the 10%to 15%range.D&O pricing was influenced by factors including an increase in market capacity and a lack of premium-generating M&A activity.Program savings were largely driven by excess layer re

31、ductions.Financial institutions(FIs)continued to experience rate reductions between 5%and 10%as insurers sought to increase their business and the market saw new entrants,increasing competition.New capacity in commercial crime coverage entered the market,moderating pricing increases and stabilizing

32、buying conditions.Cyber insurance pricing increased 34%,compared to 66%in the third quarter.As losses continued to improve,the cyber insurance market trend was toward a moderation in pricing increases and somewhat broader coverage.Some industries,such as manufacturing,experienced higher rate increas

33、es than others.Competition increased in the cyber market in the second half of 2022,from both new and existing insurers in the UK and internationally.Global Insurance Market Index Q4 20221011%14%15%13%15%Q4 18Q1 19Source:Marsh Specialty and Global Placement08|Latin America composite insurance pricin

34、g changeQ2 19Q3 19Q4 19Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 20Q1 212%3%6%8%11%19%20%22%18%Latin AmericaGlobalQ2 21Q3 21Q4 21Q1 227%9%Q2 226%Q3 224%Q4 22Latin America and Caribbean pricing:Casualty pricing increases for third consecutive quarterInsurance pricing in the fourth quarter in the Latin America and Caribbean(

35、LAC)region increased 7%,compared to 5%in each of the prior two quarters(see Figures 8 and 9).Property insurance pricing increased 6%,compared to 5%in the previous quarter;it was the seventeenth consecutive quarter of increase.Pricing increases up to 10%continued across the region when facultative ca

36、pacity was required,with the highest rise in CAT-exposed areas.Property CAT is a concern across the region.Insurers exhibited strict underwriting discipline and asked for more and better information.Reductions in capacity in Brazil continued,with select industries and complex risks putting upward pr

37、essure on pricing.Global Insurance Market Index Q4 20221109|Latin America composite insurance pricing change by major coverage line15%0%LAC Property0%6%9%9%14%16%10%2%1%1%2%2%-4%-4%-4%LAC Casualty-5%7%2%1%15%15%8%17%26%22%LAC Financial and Professional Lines17%Source:Marsh Specialty and Global Place

38、mentQ4 18Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 19Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 20Q1 214%Q2 216%-2%22%2%-3%17%Q3 217%-3%12%Q4 21Q1 228%0%11%4%5%Q2 226%Q3 225%6%6%8%6%8%Q4 221%Strike,riot,and civil commotion(SRCC)and sabotage and terrorism(S&T)continued to be challenging due to the regions political uncertainty.Casualty insurance pr

39、icing increased 8%,compared to 6%in the prior quarter.Pricing increased across the region,particularly in Brazil,Colombia,and Chile.Larger organizations generally experienced higher increases and limited capacity compared to smaller ones.Insurers were selective in deploying capacity for product liab

40、ility exposures in the US and Canada,as well as for energy,chemicals,fertilizers,and other high-risk exposures.Financial and professional lines pricing rose 8%,compared to 6%in the prior quarter,marking the third consecutive quarter of single-digit increases.D&O and FIs saw new capacity enter the ma

41、rket,as well as an openness by insurers to reviewing exposed risks,competitive rates,and increased appetite.Insurers generally looked to grow their professional indemnity business,and typically were open to reviewing risks and offering competitive terms and conditions.For single project professional

42、 indemnity(SPPI),insurers continued to demonstrate a conservative approach.Cyber insurance pricing increased 33%in the fourth quarter,a lower rate of increase than had been seen for several quarters.Competitive terms and moderating rate increases signaled a greater willingness from insurers to under

43、write cyber coverage.Industries that faced significant rate increases included financial institutions,manufacturing,and technology.Global Insurance Market Index Q4 20221210|Continental Europe composite insurance pricing changeContinental EuropeGlobal6%9%11%13%15%15%Q4 18Q1 19Source:Marsh Specialty a

44、nd Global PlacementQ2 19Q3 19Q4 19Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 20Q1 212%8%11%19%20%22%18%14%3%6%Q2 21Q3 21Q4 21Q1 226%Q2 22Q3 224%Q4 22Continental Europe pricing:Cyber insurance pricing moderatesInsurance pricing in the fourth quarter in Continental Europe(CE)increased 6%,the same rate of increase as in the pr

45、ior three quarters(see Figures 10 and 11).Property insurance pricing rates in CE rose 7%,compared to 5%in the prior quarter.Hurricane Ian and other catastrophe losses created uncertainty around capacity and put upward pressure on CAT pricing.The inflationary environment also drove property pricing i

46、ncreases,especially where asset values were deemed inadequate.Terms and conditions and capacity continued to be bifurcated in areas including CAT-exposed and non-CAT-exposed;loss-hit and loss-free;and high hazard and low hazard.Insurers continued to show discipline around terms and conditions includ

47、ing deductibles,non-physical damage,cyber,and communicable disease exclusions,as well as territorial exclusions for Russia,Belarus,and Ukraine.Contingent business interruption(CBI)extensions were under scrutiny as supply chain disruption,higher energy costs,and labor shortages continued to drive cla

48、im costs higher.Casualty insurance pricing increased 6%in the fourth quarter,compared to 7%in the prior quarter,marking the fourteenth consecutive quarter of increase.Global Insurance Market Index Q4 20221311|Continental Europe composite insurance pricing change by major coverage line21%3%4%Cont.Eur

49、ope Property4%8%10%9%20%19%16%0%-1%0%1%3%4%5%5%5%Cont.Europe Casualty6%1%2%1%2%5%12%22%24%22%Cont.Europe Financial and Professional Lines23%Source:Marsh Specialty and Global PlacementQ4 18Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 19Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 20Q1 2118%5%20%Q2 215%12%Q3 2114%7%10%Q4 2113%Q1 226%6%9%Q2 226%7%5%Q3 227

50、%5%6%Q4 226%7%2%The reduction in capacity from key primary markets continued.Markets increased pricing for risks with US exposure,for complex industries,and where current pricing was considered inadequate.Insurers continued to express concerns regarding social and general inflation on US auto liabil

51、ity exposures.Clients with large US auto fleets continued to see significant pricing increases,as well as increases in attachment points for US auto excess coverage.Financial and professional lines pricing rose 2%,compared to 6%in the prior quarter.D&O liability pricing was stable,with some reductio

52、ns due to increased competition from insurers,entrance of additional capacity,and increased appetite to write more business given the slowdown in IPO and special purpose acquisition companies(SPAC)deals.Underwriters continued to increase focus on environmental,social,and governance(ESG)issues.The FI

53、 space was generally stable,with some reductions and low single-digit increases,depending on risk profile and loss history.Professional indemnity and crime coverage renewal terms began to stabilize.Cyber insurance pricing increases moderated to 13%,as new capacity entered the market.Factors driving

54、cyber pricing included fewer claims around privacy,a decrease in ransomware claims frequency and severity since the second half of 2021,insurers looking to maintain share and grow their cyber business in 2023,and new capacity entering the market.Retentions tended to be stable in the quarter.Good ris

55、k profiles generated appetite from insurers,leading to increased capacity and the removal of restrictions on ransomware.Global Insurance Market Index Q4 20221412|PacificcompositeinsurancepricingchangePacificGlobal4%6%9%13%11%15%Q4 18Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 19Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 20Q1 212%3%6%8%11%19%20%22%18

56、%14%Source:Marsh Specialty and Global PlacementQ2 2115%Q3 21Q4 21Q1 225%Q2 22Q3 22Q4 22Pacificpricing:FinancialandprofessionallinespricingflattensInsurance pricing in the Pacific region increased 5%in the fourth quarter,the same as in the prior quarter (see Figures 12 and 13).Property insurance pric

57、ing increased 4%,the same as in the prior quarter,with loss impacted and CAT-exposed clients seeing the highest increases.Underwriters continued to focus on CAT perils;organizations commitment to continual risk improvement was critical to success at renewal.Ensuring valuations supported declared val

58、ues was a major underwriting focus due to global inflation.Casualty insurance pricing rose 10%,the same as in the prior quarter.Insurers kept a focus on claims inflation resulting from litigation trends,as well as material cost inflation.Some new capacity emerged,fostering insurer competition.Some m

59、ajor programs underwent substantial restructuring of layers as a result of changing underwriter appetite.Global Insurance Market Index Q4 20221513|Pacificcompositeinsurancepricingchangebymajorcoverageline37%31%15%15%Pacific Property18%18%18%23%28%31%20%6%6%6%6%8%11%Pacific Casualty17%26%28%28%33%33%

60、48%49%51%Pacific Financial and Professional Lines48%Source:Marsh Specialty and Global PlacementQ4 18Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 19Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 20Q1 216%9%15%26%14%18%Q2 2115%11%25%Q3 2115%8%18%Q4 21Q1 228%15%10%11%5%6%Q2 224%10%4%Q3 22Q4 224%10%0%Financial and professional lines pricing flattened,compare

61、d to a 4%increase in the prior quarter.D&O pricing continued to moderate,as did other financial and professional lines.The development of competition,particularly for excess layers,resulted in improved pricing.Cyber insurance pricing increased 28%in the fourth quarter.The cyber market remained chall

62、enging;however,it began to stabilize in the second half of 2022,with rate increases decelerating.Coverage scrutiny and cybersecurity controls were the main underwriting focus areas.Global Insurance Market Index Q4 2022164%6%9%11%13%15%15%Q4 18Q1 1914|Asia composite insurance pricing changeQ2 19Q3 19

63、Q4 19Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 20Q1 212%3%6%8%11%19%20%22%18%14%2%AsiaGlobalSource:Marsh Specialty and Global PlacementQ2 21Q3 21Q4 21Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 22Asia pricing:Cyber pricing continues to moderateInsurance pricing in the fourth quarter in Asia increased 2%,the same as in in the prior quarter (see Figu

64、res 14 and 15).Property insurance pricing rose 2%,the same as in the third quarter.Due to continued concerns regarding inflation,insurers maintained focus on updated and validated valuations of assets and business interruption calculations.Underwriters continued to focus on CAT and secondary CAT per

65、ils.Renewal results again favored clients with exemplary claims performance and strong risk management practices.Casualty insurance pricing declined 1%in the fourth quarter.Casualty pricing in Asia decreased in the fourth quarter for most industry segments;however,some experienced tightening of term

66、s and conditions.The market remained challenging for product recall and US-exposed product liability,with capacity being secured from London subject to its pricing and conditions requirements.Global Insurance Market Index Q4 20221724%18%1%1%Asia Property7%8%8%12%16%10%-1%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%Asia Casualt

67、y1%0%0%3%5%5%8%14%18%22%Asia Financial and Professional Lines23%15|Asia composite insurance pricing change by major coverage lineSource:Marsh Specialty and Global PlacementQ4 18Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 19Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 20Q1 215%Q2 217%0%5%1%17%Q3 213%2%17%Q4 212%2%13%Q1 222%0%Q2 2213%2%0%5%Q3 22Q4 22-1%

68、2%2%Auto liability and workers compensation renewals experienced decreased pricing in a number of territories,and held stable in others.Insurers continued to demonstrate caution due to claims inflation resulting from litigation trends and material cost increases.Insurers continued to focus on updati

69、ng policy wordings,ensuring the application of updated sanctions clauses and exclusions associated with per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances(PFAS),cyber,terrorism,punitive damages,and contractual liability.Financial and professional lines pricing increased 2%,compared to 5%in the prior quarter.D&O rat

70、es began to stabilize,with non-US-exposed businesses experiencing decreases of up to 10%.Additional capacity entered the market;combined with 2022s low level of IPOs,SPACs,and deSPACs,this generated strong competition on traditional risks.Pricing began to moderate for FIs and was considered stable f

71、or large and complex accounts.Cyber insurance pricing increased 22%,an improvement from recent quarters.Conditions in the cyber market continued to improve as new entrants drove an increase in capacity,markets actively indicated a desire to grow their portfolios,and many clients were able to elimina

72、te sub-limit and coinsurance requirements around ransomware(usually for an additional premium).Clients in specific industries remained vulnerable to wholesale insurer appetite changes to their industry.Due to claims activity,telecommunication clients experienced a pullback in appetite for cyber and

73、tech E&O risk,resulting in pricing increases above average.About MarshMarsh is the worlds leading insurance broker and risk advisor.With around 45,000 colleagues operating in 130 countries,Marsh serves commercial and individual clients with data-driven risk solutions and advisory services.Marsh is a

74、 business of Marsh McLennan(NYSE:MMC),the worlds leading professional services firm in the areas of risk,strategy and people.With annual revenue nearly$20 billion,Marsh McLennan helps clients navigate an increasingly dynamic and complex environment through four market-leading businesses:Marsh,Guy Ca

75、rpenter,Mercer and Oliver Wyman.For more information,visit ,follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter or subscribe to BRINK.Marsh is a business of Marsh McLennan.This document and any recommendations,analysis,or advice provided by Marsh(collectively,the“Marsh Analysis”)are not intended to be taken as advice

76、 regarding any individual situation and should not be relied upon as such.The information contained herein is based on sources we believe reliable,but we make no representation or warranty as to its accuracy.Marsh shall have no obligation to update the Marsh Analysis and shall have no liability to y

77、ou or any other party arising out of this publication or any matter contained herein.Any statements concerning actuarial,tax,accounting,or legal matters are based solely on our experience as insurance brokers and risk consultants and are not to be relied upon as actuarial,tax,accounting,or legal adv

78、ice,for which you should consult your own professional advisors.Any modeling,analytics,or projections are subject to inherent uncertainty,and the Marsh Analysis could be materially affected if any underlying assumptions,conditions,information,or factors are inaccurate or incomplete or should change.

79、Marsh makes no representation or warranty concerning the application of policy wording or the financial condition or solvency of insurers or reinsurers.Marsh makes no assurances regarding the availability,cost,or terms of insurance coverage.Although Marsh may provide advice and recommendations,all d

80、ecisions regarding the amount,type or terms of coverage are the ultimate responsibility of the insurance purchaser,who must decide on the specific coverage that is appropriate to its particular circumstances and financial position.1166 Avenue of the Americas,New York 10036Copyright 2023,Marsh LLC.All rights reserved.MA21-XXXXXX 1038099189

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