1、Summer 2022 Solar Industry UpdateDavid FeldmanKrysta Dummit,ORISEaFellowJarett ZuboyRobert MargolisJuly 12,2022aOak Ridge Institute for Science and EducationNREL|2Global Solar Deployment1U.S.PV Deployment2PV System Pricing3Global Manufacturing4Component Pricing5Market Activity67U.S.PV ImportsAgendaN

2、ote:the material in this report was written before the introduction of the Inflation Reduction Act by Congress.NREL|3NREL|3Note:the material in this report was written before the introduction of the Inflation Reduction Act by Congress.Global Solar DeploymentXinjiang province in China announced 13 CS

3、P projects totaling 1.35 GW would be developed.Combined with the 1.1 GW of CSP projects announced by other provinces in January 2022,and which are already hiring EPCs and breaking ground,these projects,once completed,would make China the largest CSP market in the world.The Global Off-Grid Lighting A

4、ssociation tracked 7.4 million off-grid solar products installed in 2021.They had a capacity of 69 MW.U.S.PV DeploymentAs of Q4 2021,the solar industry employed more than 255,000 workers.The United States installed 4.3 GWac of PV in Q1 2022;45%of that was in Texas,Florida,and California.EIA estimate

5、s solar will install almost 26 GWac in 2022 and 33 GWac in 2023,compared to 19 GWac in 2021.29%of U.S.utility-scale PV and 19%of all U.S.PV systems built in 2021 used CdTe panels.The United States installed 2.9 GWh(0.955 GWac)of energy storage onto the electric grid in Q1 2022.The percentage of util

6、ity-scale PV systems paired with batteries is expected to increase to 32%of new additions in 2022,25%in 2023,and 32%in 2024.PV System and Component PricingReported PV system prices from select states increased between H1 2021 and H1 2022,representing the first time consistent price increases were ob

7、served in conjunction with the PV supply chain challenges that accelerated beginning in Q2 2021.Prices in dollars were flat at relatively high levels for polysilicon($33$36/kg or about$0.09/W),wafers($0.12/W),cells($0.16/W),and modules($0.26/W)in Q2 2022.In Q1 2022,U.S.utility-scale monofacial mono

8、c-Si module prices rose$0.03/W(y/y)and$0.02/W(q/q),and they were trading at a 54%premium over global ASP.Global ManufacturingPV manufacturers,mostly Chinese companies,have generally been profitable since 2019.In 2021,10 select Chinese companies spent over$7 billion in R&D,compared to$100 million eac

9、h by First Solar and Maxeon,and about$1 billion by IEA governments.U.S.PV Imports4.9 GWdc of PV modules were imported into the United States in Q1 2022,down 23%y/y.As of May,imported modules and cells from the four countries under investigation for AD/CVD circumvention were significantly below where

10、 they were a year ago(-32%,-597 MW y/y),mainly as a result of decreased imports from Malaysia.Executive SummaryA list of acronyms and abbreviations is available at the end of the presentation.NREL|4AgendaGlobal Solar Deployment1U.S.PV Deployment2PV System Pricing3Global Manufacturing4Component Prici

11、ng5Market Activity67U.S.PV Imports Xinjiang province in China announced 13 CSP projects totaling 1.35 GW would be developed.Combined with the 1.1 GW of CSP projects announced by other provinces in January 2022,and which are already hiring EPCs and breaking ground,these projects,once completed,would

12、make China the largest CSP market in the world.The Global Off-Grid Lighting Association tracked 7.4 million off-grid solar products installed in 2021.They had a capacity of 69 MW.NREL|5NREL|5SEGS IX(Trough)Nevada Solar One(Trough)Genesis(Trough)Solana(Trough+6 hours storage)Mojave(Trough)Ivanpah(Tow

13、er)0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2000202021Capacity FactorU.S.CSP Project Generation Performance,20102021Source:EIA,Form 923.Though it took a few years to optimize the operation of the five U.S.CSP plants brought online between 2013 and 2015,four of them now generally perform better th

14、an when they began operation.Annual weather variation caused some of the differences in annual production.Five of the six active large-scale U.S.CSP projects had reduced capacity factors in 2021,which likely indicates lower insolation levels for the year.Absolute capacity factor is not necessarily t

15、he best metric for performance,as plants can be designed and operated differently.SEGS IX capacity factor has decreased over time as its original PPA expired and shifted to merchant production.SEGS IX and Nevada Solar One have been operational for 32 and 15 years respectively.NREL|6NREL|6GlassPoint

16、Restarts OperationsNew York based GlassPoint,Inc producer of parabolic trough technology in greenhouses for industrial process heat usehas restarted operations and signed a memorandum of understanding to develop a 1.5-GWth steam plant to help refine bauxite ore into alumina.Glasspoint Solar Inc,ente

17、red into liquidationduring the onset of Covid pandemic in 2020 after key shareholders held back additional funds needed to keep the business operational.Instead of selling equipment,the company will now provide renewable heat through long-term(e.g.,20 years)offtake agreements under a build-own-opera

18、te structure.The company claims 17%($444 B)of worldwide energy is used on industrial heat that falls in the range of GlassPoint technology applications.Source:GlasspointNREL|7NREL|7Chinese CSP Update The Xinjiang province in China announced 13 CSP projects,totaling 1.35 GW,would be developed.Most of

19、 these projects would include 8 hours of storage,though three would include 12 hours.In January 2022,the provinces of Gansu,Qinghai,and Jilin announced 1.1 GW of combined CSP projects in 2024,and they are already hiring EPCs and breaking ground.Combined,these project announcements would make China t

20、he largest CSP market in the world.The Chinese Solar Thermal Alliance stated that China is pursuing CSP for three applications:firm,dispatchable power to complement wind and PV;the generation of hydrogen and jet fuels at temperatures up to 1,500 degrees Celsius;and solar heat for industrial processe

21、s.They attribute three factors to the growth of the Chinese CSP market:Consistent government project deployment support R&D funding at 11 major Chinese universities A local CSP supply chain that now comprises more than 500 companies.NREL|8NREL|800708090892011 2012 2013 2014 201

22、5 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Off-grid PV Products Sales(MW)Off-grid PV Product Shipped(millions of units)TotalRest of WorldIndiaSub-Saharan AfricaMWGlobal Off-Grid Solar MarketSource:Global Off-Grid Lighting Association,“Global Off-Grid Solar Market Report Semi-Annual Sales and Impact Data.”The CO

23、VID-19 pandemic significantly contracted the sale of off-grid solar products due to:Regional lockdowns Logistical and supply chain challenges Hardware pricing increases.The Global Off-Grid Lighting Association tracked 7.4 million off-grid solar products installed in 2021.They had a capacity of 69 MW

24、.The association estimates it tracks roughly 28%of total off-grid sales,though it varies by product and market.75%of sales in 2021 were in sub-Saharan Africa(24%from Kenya alone),and 11%were in India.Approximately 63%of the systems installed in 2021 were cash sales;however,cash sales only represente

25、d 16%of solar home systems(versus the pay-as-you-go financing model).NREL|9AgendaGlobal Solar Deployment1U.S.PV Deployment2PV System Pricing3Global Manufacturing4Component Pricing5Market Activity67U.S.PV Imports As of Q4 2021,more than 255,000 U.S.employees spent most of their time on solar.The Unit

26、ed States installed 4.3 GWac of PV in Q1 2022;45%of that was in Texas,Florida,and California.EIA estimates solar will install almost 26 GWac in 2022 and 33 GWac in 2023,compared to 19 GWac in 2021.29%of U.S.utility-scale PV and 19%of all U.S.PV systems built in 2021 used CdTe panels.The United State

27、s installed 2.9 GWh(0.955 GWac)of energy storage onto the electric grid in Q1 2022.The percentage of utility-scale PV systems paired with batteries is expected to increase to 32%of new additions in 2022,25%in 2023,and 32%in 2024.U.S.Solar WorkforceSource.IREC,The National Solar Jobs Census 2021.July

28、 2022.18 25 38 45 9442092602502422482350200250300Thousands of WorkersAll OthersManufacturingO&MSales&DistributionInstaller&Developers As of Q4 2021,more than 255,000 U.S.employees spent most of their time on solar.An additional 78,850 workers spent less than half the

29、ir time on solar-related work,and 21,910 installation jobs at solar firms are focused on storage.This is a growth of 9.2%over 2020 and 2%growth over 2019,most of which was in the installation and project development sectors.In contrast,annual PV installations grew by 78%since 2019.Solar jobs increas

30、ed in 47 states in 2021,led by California(+7,035),Massachusetts(+1,053),Nevada(+1,019),and Arizona(+932).However,89%of solar firms reported it was very difficult or somewhat difficult to find qualified applicantsa 6%increase since 2019.Women are underrepresented within the solar workforce.They repre

31、sent under 30%of the solar workforce,compared to an overall national workforce average of 47%.Black employees and people 55 and over are also underrepresented,while solar reports a higher representation of union members,veterans,and non-Black minorities(including Asian and Latinx workers).NREL|11NRE

32、L|11Q2 2022State UpdatesDCMaryland passed two community solar bills.HB 1039 exempts community solar from county and municipal corporate property taxes if 50%of electricity goes to low-to moderate-income customers at a reduced rate,and it establishes additional tax incentives for agrivoltaic projects

33、.HB 440 expands the maximum capacity of a community solar project from 2 to 5 MW,and it reduces land requirements for siting projects on contiguous lots.Source:Environment America(6/30/22),TaiyangNews(6/30/22),Indianapolis Star(6/29/22),PV Magazine(6/8/22,6/30/22),Institute for Local Self-Reliance,a

34、ccessed 2022.Net metering expired on July 1 for solar customers in Indiana.It is to be replaced by“excess distributed generation”tariffs with reduced compensation.Solar advocates are bringing court challenges.Multiple states proposed or implemented policy changes related to solar energy.Policies lik

35、ely to promote solar deployment included Californias new interconnection process,Rhode Islands 100%renewable electricity goal,and Marylands community solar incentives.The compensation policies replacing net metering in Indiana likely will hinder solar deployment.Rhode Island adopted legislation(H277

36、/S2274)committing to offset all electricity with 100%renewable energy by 2033the fastest path to 100%renewables of the 10 states currently committed to this goal.The California Public Utilities Commission simplified the process for interconnecting distributed energy resources by replacing“rule of th

37、umb”screening methodswhich can lead to expensive and unnecessary reviewswith more-precise integration capacity analysis(ICA).Projects not exceeding 90%of available capacity can pass the ICA screening,and non-passing projects are eligible for expedited supplemental review.By reviewing utility ICA map

38、s in advance,developers can identify locations with no need for grid upgrades and then streamline their installation processes.3272583336605646No data5852829942 20-40 40-100 100-200 200-350 350VT:228CT:196RI:249DE:100DC:15018521Distri

39、buted solar per capita(watts per person),2021,from Institute for Local Self-RelianceNo dataNREL|12NREL|12U.S.Installation BreakdownAnnual:EIA(GWac)Despite the impact of the pandemic and trade issues,according to EIA data,the United States installed 4.3 GWacof PV in Q1 2022,its largest Q1 everup 7%y/

40、y.Residential(1.2 GWac)and C&I(0.5 GWac)were up significantly in Q1 2022:44%and 27%y/y,respectively.However,utility-scale PV was down 7%y/y,installing only 2.6 GWac.Approximately 45%of U.S.PV capacity installed in Q1 2022 was in Texas,Florida,and California.Despite a concentration of PV installation

41、s in the top three markets,diversification of growth continues across the United States.19 states had more than 1 GWacof cumulative PV installations by Q1 2022 and 12 states installed more than 100 MWacin Q1 2022.Note:EIA reports values in Wacwhich is standard for utilities.The solar industry has tr

42、aditionally reported in Wdc.See the next slide for values reported in Wdc.Sources:EIA,“Electric Power Monthly,”forms EIA-023,EIA-826,and EIA-861(April 2022,February 2021,February 2019).13.21.53.901234567Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q022Quarterly P

43、V Installed(GWac)U.S.PV Installations by Market SegmentUtility-scaleC&IResidentialTexas5%Southwest12%Florida17%California22%Midwest12%Southeast17%Northeast12%Other3%Q1 2022 U.S.PV Installations by Region(4.3 GWac)NREL|13NREL|13U.S.Installation BreakdownAnnual:SEIA(GWdc)In contrast to the EIA data,SE

44、IA reports that the United States installed 3.9 GWdcof PV in Q1 2022a decrease of 24%y/y.The utility-scale market accounts for most of this loss,with only 2.2 GWdc(-41%y/y)installed.Nonresidential PV held fairly steady at 0.5 GWdc(-2%y/y)and Residential PV saw significant gains at 1.2 GWdc(+30%y/y)i

45、nstalled.California and Florida continue to lead installations and were the only two states to surpass 500 MWdcinstallations in Q1 2022.After significant installations in 2021,Texas started off 2022 more slowly,with only 100 MWdcinstalled in Q1 2022.Sources:Wood Mackenzie/SEIA:U.S.Solar Market Insig

46、ht:Q2 2022.Unlike the previous slide,these values are in GWdcnot GWac.Texas 3%Southwest16%Florida20%California25%Midwest9%Southeast 11%Northeast11%Other 4%Q1 2022 U.S.PV Installations by Region(3.9 GWdc)0123456789Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q022Q

47、uarterly PV Installed(GWdc)U.S.PV Installations by Market SegmentUtility PVNonresidential PVResidential PVNREL|14NREL|53035May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jan-22Mar-22May-222021 Projection as ofmonth2022 Projection as of month2023Projection as

48、of monthAnnual Installments(GWac)EIA Projections Since WRO Announcement Large-scale PVC&I PVResidential PVNear-Term Projections for U.S.Solar and Wind InstallationsSources:U.S.EIA Short-term Energy Outlook Table 8b,May 2021June 2022.EIA projects U.S.solar and wind annual installations in 2022 to con

49、tinue to grow from 32.9 GWac in 2021 to 36.4 GWac,but dip in 2023,mainly as a result of decreasing wind installations.Annual wind installations are projected to fall from 14 GWac in 2021 to 11 GWac in 2022 and 5 GWac in 2023.EIA estimates solar will install almost 26 GWac in 2022 and 33 GWac in 2023

50、,compared to 19 GWac in 2021.The projected 149 GWac of cumulative U.S.solar in 2023 would surpass cumulative U.S.wind capacity for the first time.EIA expects that small-scale(1 MWacU.S.PV System Size Distribution by Year In 2011,only 23%of the U.S.PV systems(greater than 1 MWac installed)were above

51、20 MWac.The largest system was 35 MWac.In 2021,90%of U.S.PV systems(above 1 MWac installed)came from systems above 20 Mwac.The largest system was 420 MWac.2021 also marked the first year more than one system larger than 250 MWac was installed.Source:U.S.EIA,Form EIA-860 2021ER.Corrections were made

52、to the Nameplate Capacity of the 2021 Lily Solar Hybrid facility based on news reports.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Percentage of Annual Installed 1 MWacPV Capacity250 MWac150 MWac-250 MWac75 MWac-150 MWac20 MWac-75 MWac5 MWac-20 MWac5 MWacfacilities.Corrections were made to the Nameplate Capaci

53、ty of the 2021 Lily Solar Hybrid facility based on news reports.NREL|24NREL|240%15%30%45%60%75%90%105%024681012142011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021U.S.Utility-Scale Market ShareAnnual Installations(GWac)OtherOne AxisFixed TiltCumulative One Axis Market ShareU.S.Utility-Scale PV M

54、ountingType by YearThe use of single-axis/one-axis tracking in the U.S.utility PV market has grown significantly over the past decade.At the end of 2021,77%of all U.S.utility-scale PV systems used single-axis tracking.And 89%of U.S.utility-scale PV systems installed in 2021 used single-axis tracking

55、.This growth can be attributed to the reduced cost and increased reliability of trackers,making them the economic choice in a broader distribution of PV systems(e.g.,less irradiant climates).*“Other”includes two-axis tracking systems,but also could represent data entry errors.Source:U.S.EIA,Form EIA

56、-860 2021ER.Utility-scale was defined as 5 MWacfacilities.Corrections were made to the Nameplate Capacity of the 2021 Lily Solar Hybrid facility based on news reports.NREL|25NREL|251.001.101.201.301.401.502011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Average ILRFixed TiltOne AxisU.S.Utility-

57、Scale PV Average Inverter Loading Ratio(ILR)by YearSince 2011,the average ILR has increased for both fixed-tilt and one-axis tracking UPV systems in the United States.The average ILRs for fixed-tilt and one-axis tracking systems installed in 2021 were 1.38 and 1.28 respectively.For c-Si and CdTe sys

58、tems,the average ILRs in 2021 were 1.27 and 1.34 respectively.ILRs for both technology types have increased since 2011,although 2021 does mark the first year since 2011 that c-Si systems have a lower ILR than CdTe.Additionally,c-Si ILR has declined steadily from 1.38 in 2018 to 1.27 in 2021.This is

59、likely due to the growth in the use of bifacial c-Si modules whose systems are typically designed with a lower ILR,due to a higher output per module.As panel prices have dropped,it makes more economic sense for developers to oversize their PV arrays relative to their inverters.Additionally,higher IL

60、Rs produce a flatter,wider production curve,which may be attractive from a load management perspective.Source:U.S.EIA,Form EIA-860 2021ER.Utility-scale was defined as 5 MWacfacilities.Corrections were made to the nameplate capacity of the 2021 Lily Solar Hybrid facility based on news reports and to

61、the DC Net Capacity of the 2021 Titan Solar Project,SE Athos II,Townsite Solar Project Hybrid,Aragorn Solar Project,and both Juno Solar Projects based on news reports from pv magazine and prnewswire.1.001.101.201.301.401.502011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Average ILRc-SiCdTeNREL

62、|26NREL|26024681012142011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Annual Installations(GWac)OtherElectric UtilityIPPU.S.Utility-Scale PV Asset Ownership by YearMost U.S.utility-scale PV systems84%of installations in 2021,85%cumulativeare owned by independent power producers,which sell their

63、 electricity under long-term contracts.However,from 2011 to 2021,7.5 GW of PV installed was owned by electric utilities1.9 GW was installed in 2021 alone.Utilities own PV in 21 states,but 59%of installed capacity is in Florida and another 11%is in Virginia.The Florida PSC and Virginia General Assemb

64、ly established rules that would encourage direct utility ownership of solar assets.*“Other”includes commercial and industrial projects,but also could represent data entry errors.Source:U.S.EIA,Form EIA-860 2021ER.Utility-scale was defined as 5 MWacfacilities.Corrections were made to the Nameplate Ca

65、pacity of the 2021 Lily Solar Hybrid facility based on news reports.NREL|27NREL|2705001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2020212022Energy Storage Installed(MWh)U.S.Energy Storage Installations by Market SegmentFront-of-the-Meter(M

66、Wh)Nonresidential(MWh)Residential(MWh)007509001,0501,2001,3501,5001,6501,800Energy Storage Installed(MW)Front-of-the-Meter(MW)Nonresidential(MW)Residential(MW)U.S.Energy Storage Installationsby Market SegmentCalifornia continues to dominate front-of-the meter and residential installations

67、,however Texas and Nevada also had significant installations in Q1 2022.A growing diversity of states are installing storage,with 24 states installing 1 MWacof residential storage and 10 with 5 MWac.New York continues to lead in the nonresidential sector as a result of community solar-plus-storage p

68、rojects.1.2 GW of grid-scale storage originally scheduled to come online during Q1 was delayed or cancelled,with about three-quarters still slated to come online in 2022.The United States installed approximately 2.9 GWh(0.955 GWac)of energy storage onto the electric grid in Q1 2022,+205%(+201%)y/y,a

69、s a result of record levels of residential and non-residential deployment.Grid-scale,nonresidential,and residential were up 322%,140%,and 32%in Q1 2021 y/y,respectively.Texas12%Arizona 0%Florida 1%California57%Nevada 11%Hawaii 1%Massachusetts 1%Other17%Q1 2022 U.S.Energy Storage Installations by Reg

70、ion(2.9 GWh)Note:“Front-of-the-meter”refers to all projects deployed on the utility side of the meter,regardless of size or ownership.Source:Wood Mackenzie Power&Renewables and Energy Storage Association,U.S.Energy Storage Monitor:Q2 2022.NREL|28NREL|28U.S.Utility-Scale PV and Batteries From 2017 th

71、rough 2021,2.4 GW of U.S.utility-scale PV systems were built and paired with 1.9 GW of storage(6 GWh),and 2021 alone accounted for about 90%of that battery capacity and 63%of that PV capacity.This represents 6%of U.S.utility-scale PV system capacity and 45%of utility-scale battery system capacity in

72、 MW installed during that time,or 59%in MWh.EIA reports another 16.0 GW of utility-scale PV are proposed to be built and paired with 8.9 GW of battery storage from 2022 through 2024.The percentage of utility-scale PV systems paired with batteries is expected to increase to 32%of new additions in 202

73、2,25%in 2023,and 32%in 2024.Source:U.S.EIA,Form EIA-860 2021ER.0%20%40%60%80%100%057200212022P2023P2024P2002020212022P2023P2024PPV CapacityBattery CapacityPercent of Annual InstallationsAnnual Installations(GWac)standalonePV paired withbatteries%of PV withbatteries%o

74、f batteries withPVProposedProposedNREL|29AgendaGlobal Solar Deployment1U.S.PV Deployment2PV System Pricing3Global Manufacturing4Component Pricing5Market Activity67U.S.PV Imports Reported PV system prices from select states increased between H1 2021 and H1 2022,resulting in the first time that consis

75、tent price increases have been observed in conjunction with the PV supply chain challenges that accelerated beginning in Q2 2021.An increase in price was also observed in the distributed PV+storage sector.NREL|30NREL|30System Pricing from Select StatesFrom H1 2021 to H1 2022(partial),the median repo

76、rted PV system price in Arizona,California,Connecticut,Massachusetts,and New York:Increased 5%to$4.18/W for systems from 2.5 to 10 kWIncreased 4%to$3.59/W for systems from 10 to 100 kWIncreased 3%to$2.47/W for systems from 100 to 500 kWIncreased 0.3%to$1.82/W for systems from 500 kW to 5 MW.These da

77、ta represent the first time that consistent price increases have been observed in conjunction with the PV supply chain challenges that accelerated beginning in Q2 2021.For systems 50%coalCoal#1 sourcebut 50%hydroNuclear#1 sourceNREL|42NREL|42Electricity CO2Emissions Intensities:Variation within the

78、United StatesEmissions intensities vary across the United States,including for example:880 g CO2/kWh in West Virginia(mostly coal)180 in California(gas,renewables,and nuclear)90 in Washington(mostly hydroelectric).PV components are produced in multiple states.Sources:Carnegie Mellon University,Power

79、 Sector Carbon Index,accessed 2022;DOE,Solar Photovoltaics Supply Chain Deep Dive Assessment,2022;IEA,Electricity Market Report,2022;Solar Power World,U.S.Solar Panel Manufacturers,accessed 2022.00500600700800900WVKYWYMOINUTHINDOHNECOWIMTNMARAKMIDEKSTXLAFLRIMSIAMNMAGAOKALPANVMDAZILNCTNVAS

80、CCTNJNYCASDORNHMEIDWAVTCO2 intensity(g CO2/kWh)U.S.averageState with module assembly(black)State with polysilicon production(red)REC Silicon plans to reopen its Moses Lake,WA,polysilicon plant in 2023NREL|43NREL|43Electricity CO2Emissions Intensities:Variation within China China is the worlds larges

81、t producer of polysilicon,ingots,wafers,and cells.Components are manufactured in various regions,which vary in emissions intensity,largely based on the proportion of coal use.Most polysilicon is produced in the Northwest(high intensity).Most wafers,cells,and modules are produced in the East(moderate

82、 to high intensity).Only select,major producing provinces are displayed on the map.New capacity is under construction or announced(e.g.,polysilicon in North and Central,wafers in North,cells in East and Central,modules in East).Sources:DOE,Solar Photovoltaics Supply Chain Deep Dive Assessment,2022.M

83、a et al.(2022).Electricity CO2Intensity and Major Chinese PV Production Provinces,circa 20192021NREL|44AgendaGlobal Solar Deployment1U.S.PV Deployment2PV System Pricing3Global Manufacturing4Market Activity5Component Pricing67U.S.PV Imports Prices in dollars were flat at relatively high levels for po

84、lysilicon($33$36/kg or about$0.09/W),wafers($0.12/W),cells($0.16/W),and modules($0.26/W)in Q2 2022.Although polysilicon supply from China has been increasing,high demand has continued to support high prices.Price increases in Chinese yuan were offset by yuan depreciation against the U.S.dollar.In Q1

85、 2022,U.S.utility-scale monofacial mono c-Si module prices rose$0.03/W(y/y)and$0.02/W(q/q),trading at a 54%premium over global ASP.NREL|45NREL|45PV Value Chain Spot Pricing Polysilicon spot prices were fairly constant across Q2 2022 at$33$36/kg or about$0.09/W.Although polysilicon supply from China

86、has been increasing,high demand has continued to support high prices.Price increases in Chinese yuan were offset by yuan depreciation against the U.S.dollar.Prices in dollars were also flat at relatively high levels for wafers($0.12/W),cells($0.16/W),and modules($0.26/W)in Q2 2022.Signs in early Jul

87、y suggest prices may be rising.Rising polysilicon prices and an ingot-manufacturing bottleneck contributed to a 6%wafer price increase by LONGi.Tongwei and Aiko raised cell prices to around$0.18$0.19/W(15%20%higher than the June 29 spot price reported by BNEF).Polysilicon capacity coming online by t

88、he end of the year is expected to reduce prices.Source:BloombergNEF Solar Spot Price Index(7/1/22);BloombergNEF Bimonthly PV Index(5/23/22);PV Tech(6/27/22,6/30/22,7/4/22).Kilogram to watt conversion for polysilicon:4.78 grams per watt(2016),4.73(2017),from Cowen&Co.(05/11/17)and Deutsche Bank(07/19

89、/17);4.35(2019),4.10(2019),3.85(2020),3.60(2021),from Bernreuter;2.60(2022),from NREL module manufacturing cost model.$0.00$0.10$0.20$0.30$0.40$0.50$0.60$0.70$0.80$0.90Jan-16Apr-16Jul-16Oct-16Jan-17Apr-17Jul-17Oct-17Jan-18Apr-18Jul-18Oct-18Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21

90、Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Average Selling Price($/Wdc)PolysiliconCells(mono)Modules(mono c-Si)Modules(multi c-Si)Bifacial Modules(mono c-Si)Wafers(mono)NREL|46NREL|46Module Average Selling Price:Global versus United States In Q1 2022,U.S.utility-scale monofacial mono c-Si module prices rose$0.03

91、/W(y/y)and$0.02/W(q/q),and they were trading at a 54%premium over global ASP.The price premium of U.S.bifacial mono c-Si modules over monofacial counterparts narrowed further to$0.01/W.The bifacial exemption to the Section 201 tariffswhich was removed in Q4 2020was reinstated in Q4(late November)202

92、1.In February 2022,the Section 201 tariffs were extended by 4 years,and the bifacial exemption was continued.Global c-Si module prices were flat(mono)or fell$0.01/W(multi)from Q4 2021 to Q1 2022.Q1 2022 modules prices do not include impacts of the anti-circumvention investigation announced by the U.

93、S.Department of Commerce in late March 2022.Source:Wood Mackenzie&SEIA,US Solar Market Insight:Q2 2022,June 2022.$0.0$0.1$0.2$0.3$0.4$0.5$0.6$0.7$0.8Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q02020212022PV Module ASP($/Wdc)U.S.(multi c-Si)Global(multi c-Si)U.S.(mo

94、no c-Si)Global(mono c-Si)U.S.(bifacial mono PERC)NREL|47NREL|47Calculated U.S.Module Pricing Based on the reported value and capacity of imported PV modules,the average price of a PV module in the United States before tariffs has risen steadily from Q2 2021($0.26/W)to Q1 2022($0.29/W).While this pri

95、ce increase is minor in comparison to historical prices,it does appear to be a persistent trend.As a result of the underlying price reduction since 2018 and the step-down of the Section 201 tariff,these duties have been cut by 67%on a per-watt basis(from approximately$0.12/W to$0.04/W).Note:Manual c

96、orrections were made to the following values due to suspected data entry errors for HTS code 8541430010:Cambodia February 2022,Malaysia June 2020,Vietnam July 2019.$0.00$0.10$0.20$0.30$0.40$0.50$0.60Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q2020212022Calculated U.S.Module Price($/Wdc)Imported value/

97、Watt201 Tariff RateSources:Imports by HTS code:8541460015(2018-2021)/8541430010(2022-),Customs Value and Second Quantity(watts)from the U.S.International Trade Commission DataWeb,the U.S.Census Bureau USA Trade Online tool and corrections page.NREL|48AgendaGlobal Solar Deployment1U.S.PV Deployment2P

98、V System Pricing3Global Manufacturing4Component Pricing5Market Activity67U.S.PV Imports Solar stocks represented by the Invesco Solar ETF dropped 24%early in Q1 2022,more steeply than the decline in the broader market,before rebounding to finish the quarter with only a 6%losscompared with a quarterl

99、y loss of 17%18%in the broader market.SREC bid prices declined 27%in Washington,D.C.,between March and July 2022.The price decline may indicate an oversupply of SRECs,as more than half of DCs solar capacity has been installed in the past two years.NREL|49NREL|49SREC PricingSource:SRECTrade,https:/ 8

100、/3/22.SREC bid prices declined 27%in Washington,D.C.,between March and July 2022.The price decline may indicate an oversupply of SRECs,as more than half of D.C.s solar capacity has been installed in the past 2 years.Other SREC prices stayed relatively flat during this period.Active SREC programs hav

101、e closed in New Jersey,Massachusetts,and Ohio.$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90Price Per SREC(Simple Average)Price Per SREC(Simple Average)LowerLower-Priced MarketsPriced MarketsPAMDOH In-state$0$100$200$300$400$500Price Per SREC(Simple Average)Price Per SREC(Simple Average)HigherHigher-Priced MarketsPr

102、iced MarketsNJDCMA(SREC II)NREL|50NREL|50Stock Market ActivitySolar stocks represented by the Invesco Solar ETF dropped 24%early in Q1 2022,more steeply than the decline in the broader market,before rebounding to finish the quarter with only a 6%losscompared with a quarterly loss of 17%18%in the bro

103、ader market.Rising interest rates contributed to the steep early decline in solar stocks.The 2-year waiver of new tariffs on solar imports from Southeast Asia in June helped boost some solar stocks.Note:The TAN index is weighted toward particular countries and sectors.As of 7/1/22,42%of its funds we

104、re in U.S.companies and 28%were in Chinese companies.Its top 10 holdings,representing 57%of its value,were Enphase Energy,SolarEdge Technologies,GCL Technology Holdings,First Solar,Xinyi Solar Holdings,Sunrun,Daqo New Energy,JinkoSolar,Encavis,and Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure.Sources:NASDAQ(

105、4/28/22).Markets Insider(6/9/22).Stock market:Yahoo Finance(7/5/22).-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22%Change(Index:01/02/20 Adjusted Close)Invesco Solar ETF(TAN)S&P 500 IndexRussell 2000-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%Atlanti

106、ca YieldSunworksSunPowerSunnovaSunrunAzure PowerGinlongEnphase EnergySolarEdgeSoltec PowerArray Tech.Solargiga EnergyTainergy TechFirst SolarJinko Solar Canadian SolarShunfengWacker ChemieDaqoMeyer BurgerYieldcos InstallersInvertersTrackersPV ManufacturersPolyEquip.Individual Stock Performance(H1 20

107、22)Q2 2022NREL|51AgendaGlobal Solar Deployment1U.S.PV Deployment2PV System Pricing3Global Manufacturing4Component Pricing5Market Activity67U.S.PV Imports4.9 GWdc of PV modules were imported into the United States in Q1 2022,down y/y.As of May,imported modules and cells from the four countries under

108、investigation for AD/CVD circumvention were significantly below where they were a year ago(-32%,-597 MW y/y),mainly as a result of decreased imports from Malaysia.265 MWdc of cells were imported in Q1 2022,down y/y.Despite the renewal of the Section 201 tariffs in February raising of the quota exemp

109、tion from 2.5 GWdcto 5.0 GWdc,there has not been a significant uptick in the import of solar cells.Imports are on track to match those of 2021.NREL|52NREL|52Q1 2022 U.S.ModuleImports by TariffIn Q1 2022,only 685 MWdc(14%)reported a tariff.Most of the modules that did not were thin-film and not subje

110、ct to tariffs(1.3 GWdc,27%)or c-Si technology panels exempt from Section 201 tariffs(2.7 GWdc,55%).Imports of thin-film modules were up 35%(342 MW)over Q1 of 2021.In Q1 2022,imports of c-Si panels exempt from Section 201 tariffs more than doubled that of the previous quarter(+2.7 GWdcvs.+1.2 GWdc),w

111、hich was already nearly double previous quarters.The c-Si imports were likely bifacial panels,which the Biden administration exempted from Section 201 duties in February 2022.CdTe panels are not subject to the various duties c-Si modules are and do not have a supply chain in locations currently scru

112、tinized over the use of forced labor.In addition to imports,First Solar produced 450 MWdcof CdTe PV modules in the United States in Q1 2022.Notes:We assumed all modules not subject to Section 201 tariffs are reported under“Free under HS Chapters 1-98”or“Entered into U.S.Virgin Islands,”with exemptio

113、ns coming from HTS code 8541406015/8541430010,and technologies not applicable reported under HTS code 854140603.We assumed all panels subject to Section 201 duties are reported under“Dutiable-HS chapter 99.”Manual corrections were made to the following value due to suspected data entry errors for HT

114、S code 8541430010:Cambodia February 2022.Sources:Imports by HTS code:8541460015(2018-2021)/8541430010(2022-)and 8541460035(2018-2021)/8541430080(2022-),Second Quantity(watts),and Rate Provision Code from the U.S.International Trade Commission DataWeb as well as the U.S.Census Bureau USA Trade Online

115、 tool and corrections page as of 7/15/22,and Wood Mackenzie/SEIA:U.S.Solar Market Insight:Q2 2022.Section 201 Duty ReportedSection 201 Dutiable,but No Duty Reportedc-Si Exempt from Section 201Thin-film Modules,Not subject to Section 2010.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5Section 201 Duty ReportedNo Sectio

116、n 201 DutyReportedU.S.PV Module Imports(GWdc)Q1 2022 U.S.Module Imports by TariffNREL|53NREL|53Impact of the WRO,AD/CVD Petitions,UFLPA,and 201 Tariff Changes on c-Si Module ImportsThe U.S.solar import ecosystem has had an eventful 12 months,including:Actions related to ensuring the absence of force

117、d labor from the supply chain through a withhold release order(WRO)and the passage of the Uyghur Forced Labor Protection Act(UFLPA)Actions relating the Section 201 Tariffs including their 4-year extension in February Two anti-dumping and countervailing duty(AD/CVD)circumvention petitions against imp

118、orts from Malaysia,Vietnam,Thailand,and Cambodia,one of which recently resulted in an ongoing investigation.Though there has not been a precipitous drop in imports since the announcement of the AD/CVD investigation,many of these imports were likely already in transit or under contract before the ann

119、ouncement.Imports across the four countries in May were still significantly below where they were a year ago(-32%,-597 MW y/y),mainly as a result of decreased imports from Malaysia.Note:Manual corrections were made to the following value due to suspected data entry errors for HTS code 8541430010:Cam

120、bodia February 2022.Sources:Imports by HTS code:8541460015(2018-2021)/8541430010(2022-),Second Quantity(watts)from the U.S.International Trade Commission DataWeb as well as the U.S.Census Bureau USA Trade Online tool and corrections page as of 7/7/22.00500600700800JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

121、JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY20212022c-Si Modules Imported(MWdc)MalaysiaVietnamThailandCambodiaSouth KoreaAnnouncement of the WROAD/CVD(A-SMACC)UFLPA signed into lawSection 201 Tariffs extendedAD/CVD(Auxin)Section 201 bifacial exemption reinstatedNREL|54NREL|540.000.501.001.502.002.503

122、.007-Feb9-Mar8-Apr9-May8-Jun9-Jul8-Aug8-Sep8-Oct8-Nov8-Dec7-Jan7-FebPV Cells Imported Into U.S.(GWdc)2.5 GW cap200212022Cell Import Data by TariffDespite the renewal of the Section 201 tariffs in February raising of the quota exemption from 2.5 GWdc to 5.0 GWdc,there has not been a signif

123、icant uptick in the import of solar cells.Imports are on track to match those of 2021.Sources:Imports by HTS code:8541460025(2018-2021),Second Quantity(watts)from the U.S.International Trade Commission DataWeb;U.S.Customs and Protection Commodity Status Reports February 2019July 2022.(previous)U.S.P

124、V Cell Import Quota ExemptionNREL|55NREL|55Module and Cell Imports by RegionU.S.PV cell imports*were down 16%q/q,although still up 16%y/y.The drop in imports in Q1 2022 was mainly due to decreased imports from South Korea(-61%)and Vietnam(-24%),presumably as a result of uncertainty regarding the Sec

125、tion 201 cell TRQ extension.After hitting a peak in Q2 of 2021,module imports into the United States fell in Q3 of 2021 and have remained steady since then.4.9 GWdc of PV modules were imported into the United States in Q1 2022,down 23%y/y.Total module imports have been 1GWdc below the same quarter o

126、f the previous year for the last three quarters.Imports from Malaysia fell the most,with a 80%y/y increase in thin-film imports in those three quarters unable to compensate for c-Si import decreases.Note:*cell imports are reported in USD and not GWdcbecause of suspected data entry errors from Malays

127、ia and South Korea over Q4 2021 and Q1 2022.Sources:Imports by HTS code:8541460015(2018-2021)/8541430010(2022-),8541460025(2018-2021)/8541420010(2022-),and 8541460035(2018-2021)/8541430080(2022-),Second Quantity(watts)from the U.S.International Trade Commission DataWeb as well as the U.S.Census Bure

128、au USA Trade Online tool and corrections page as of 7/7/22.0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q22Modules Imported(GWdc)U.S.Module(c-Si+CdTe)Imports by RegionMalaysiaVietnamThailandCambodiaSouth KoreaChinaRest of AsiaN.AmericaROW050100150200Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q22Imported c-

129、Si Cells(USD)MillionsU.S.Cell Imports by RegionMalaysiaVietnamThailandCambodiaSouth KoreaChinaTaiwanROWNREL|56NREL|56Recent News on U.S.ImportsOn June 6,2022,President Biden declared an emergency and authorized the temporary extension of time and duty(and deposit)-free importation of solar cells and

130、 modules from Southeast Asia for up to 24 months over concerns the lack of panel supply would cause electric grid reliability issues.This does not halt the ongoing AD/CVD investigation or the collection of tariffs(e.g.,Section 201,232,or 301 tariffs).This is a novel implementation of this provision,

131、which is typically used for more traditional emergencies and thus could be subject to legal challenge on procedural grounds.On June 6,2022,the President also took executive actions to accelerate U.S.PV manufacturing during the two-year window,invoking the Defense Production Act to provide loans and

132、grants to PV manufacturers,directing the development of master supply agreements for domestic manufacturers,and establishing“super preferences”to apply domestic content standards for federally procured solar systems.The Defense Production Act has a limited budget and so would likely do very little t

133、o directly build domestic manufacturing,without more Congressional approvals.Recent invocations of the Defense Production Act include batteries for electric vehicles and energy storage facilities(2022),COVID-19 mitigation(2020),and advanced drop-in biofuel production(20122016).Enforcement of the Uyg

134、hur Forced Labor Protection Act(UFLPA)began on June 21,and CBPs guidance to importers and the Forced Labor Enforcement Task Forces report were finalized on June 13.The EU recently called on the European Commission“to propose an import ban on all products produced by forced labour and on products pro

135、duced by all Chinese companies listed as exploiting forced labour.”The United States has agreed to lift tariffs on Canadian solar products,as instructed in President Bidens extension of the 201 tariffs,so long as a surge does not take place.Canada had previously argued the tariffs violated the terms

136、 of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.A surge in imports is defined as:1 GW between February 2022 and February 2023,1.15 GW between February 2023 and February 2024,1.3 GW between February 2024 and February 2025,and 1.45 between February 2025 and February 2026.Sources:duty free sources:White House Jun

137、e 6th,2022,Commerce June 6th,2022,pv-tech duty-free article;Defense Production Act sources:GAO 2021,CRS 2022,CRS 2020,DOE 2015,and DON/DOE/USDA 2011;CBP guidance,pv-tech EU Parliament article;Canada MOU.www.nrel.govwww.nrel.govThank YouNREL/PR-7A40-83718Special thanks to Nate Blair,Adam Warren,and M

138、ike Meshek.This research was supported in part by the Department of Energy(DOE)Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy administered by the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education(ORISE)for the DOE.ORISE is managed by Oak Ridge Associated Universities(ORAU)under DOE contract number DE-

139、SC0014664.All opinions expressed in this presentation are the authors and do not necessarily reflect the policies and views of DOE,NREL,ORAU,or ORISE.NREL|58NREL|58List of Acronyms and AbbreviationsAD:antidumping ac:alternating currenta-Si:amorphous siliconASP:average selling priceBNEF:Bloomberg New

140、 Energy FinanceC&I:commercial and industrial CBP:U.S.Customs and Border ProtectionCdTe:cadmium tellurideCIGS:Copper indium gallium selenideCO2:carbon dioxidec-Si:crystalline siliconCSP:concentrating solar powerCVD:countervailingdc:direct currentDOE:U.S.Department of EnergyDPV:distributed PVEIA:U.S.E

141、nergy Information AdministrationEPC:engineering,procurement and constructionETF:exchange traded fundEU:European UnionG&A:general and administrative expensesGW:gigawattGWh:gigawatt-hourGWth:gigawatt-thermalH1:first half of yearH2:second half of yearHTS:harmonized tariff scheduleICA:integration capaci

142、ty analysisIEA:International Energy AgencyILR:inverter loading ratioITC:investment tax creditkW:kilowattkWh:kilowatt-hourmono c-Si:monocrystallinemulti c-Si:multicrystallineMW:megawattMWh:megawatt-hourNEM:net energy meteringNREL:National Renewable Energy LaboratoryORAU:Oak Ridge Associated Universit

143、iesORISE:Oak Ridge Institute for Science and EducationPII:permitting,inspection,and interconnectionPPA:power purchase agreementPSC:public service commission PTC:production tax creditPV:photovoltaicsQ:quarter R&D:research and developmentRD&D:research,design,and developmentSEGS:Solar Energy Generating

144、 SystemsSEIA:Solar Energy Industries AssociationSMART:Solar Massachusetts Renewable TargetSREC:solar renewable energy certificateTAN:Invesco Solar ETFTRQ:tariff-rate quotaUFLPA:Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention ActUPV:utility-scale PVUSD:U.S.dollarsW:wattWRO:withhold release ordery/y:year over yearYTD:year to date