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标普:中国工业企业-疫情后的坎坷复苏(研讨会资料)(英文版)(23页).pdf

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标普:中国工业企业-疫情后的坎坷复苏(研讨会资料)(英文版)(23页).pdf

1、This report does not constitute a rating actionChina Industrials:Bumpy Post-Pandemic RecoveryLive Webinar And Q&A Thursday,February 16,2023Claire YuanDirectorCorporate RatingsStephen ChanAssociate DirectorCorporate RatingsDanny HuangSenior DirectorCorporate RatingsChina Industrials 2023 Outlook Is a

2、 Mixed BagICEInternal combustion engine.EVElectric vehicle.E&CEngineering and construction.eEstimate.Source:China Association of Automobile Manufacturers,S&P Global Ratings.China AutoChina Auto Sales To See Modest GrowthChina LV Sales To Grow Up To 2%In 2023Note:LVLight vehicles include passenger ve

3、hicles and light commercial vehicles.eEstimate.mil.Million.Sources:China Association of Automobile Manufacturers,WIND,S&P Mobility,S&P Global Ratings.-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0500022 2023eUnits(mil.)China light vehicle sales(left scale)Year-on-year change(right scale)Rate

4、d Carmakers 2023 Sales Target Looks Challenging2022 sales(in mil.units)YoY changes2023 sales target(in mil.units)*YoY changesChina FAW Group Co.Ltd.(A/Stable/-)3.2-8%4.025%Dongfeng Motor GroupCo.Ltd.(A/Negative/-)2.5-11%3.022%Geely Automobile HoldingsLtd.(BBB-/Negative/-)1.48%1.715%Zhejiang Geely Ho

5、lding GroupCo.Ltd.(BBB-/Negative/-)2.34%N.A.N.A.Beijing Automotive GroupCo.Ltd.(BBB/Stable/-)1.5-16%N.A.N.A.*Issuer projections.YoYYear on year.N.A.Not available.Sources:Company data,S&P Global Ratings.Chinas light-vehicle unit sales could grow by up to 2%in 2023,following an increase of about 1%in

6、2022.The modest increase reflects improving consumer sentiment and the end of central government stimulus in 2023.Rated carmakers have high expectations for the year,targeting sales growth of 15%-25%.Our base case assumes that their unit sales will grow by low to mid-single digits.Electrification Th

7、e Pain Before The GainEV Progress Varies Among Rated IssuersElectrification Could Weigh On ProfitabilityWe expect growth for Chinas EV sales to soften to 15%-25%in 2023-2024,from 96%in 2022.Rated carmakers are making varying progress on EV development,with varying impact on their profitability.Our b

8、ase case factors in slight improvement in EBITDA margin for the rated carmakers.Mitigating factors for the EV-related margin dilution include higher volumes,improving operating efficiency,lower cost of raw materials,and product portfolio upgrades.The possibility that battery prices may move higher t

9、han we now expect,or that competition becomes more intense,present downside risks.Note:EV penetration rate refers to EV sales as a percentage of the entitys total auto sales.Zhejiang Geelys data also includes hybrid electric vehicles.EV-Electric light vehicle includes pure electric and plug-in hybri

10、d electric light vehicles.Sources:Company data,S&P Global Ratings,China Association of Automobile Manufacturers(CAAM).0%15%30%45%China FAWDongfeng MotorGeely AutoZhejiang GeelyEV penetration rate202120222023 targete-Estimate.Note:(1)Zhejiang Geelys EBITDA margin proportionate consolidated Polestar s

11、ince 2022.(2)FAWs EBITDA margin excludes the sales company of Toyota brand.(3)For Dongfeng Motor,the EBITDA margin shown is the margin of its parent on a proportionate consolidated basis.Sources:Company reports,S&P Global Ratings.4%5%6%7%8%9%10%11%12%13%Zhejiang GeelyBeijing AutoChina FAWDongfeng Mo

12、torEBITDA margin20022e2023eRating Outlook Bias Turned NegativeMajor rating actions:Sept.2022:Dongfeng Motor Group Co.Ltd.outlook revised to negative on margin deterioration,A ratings affirmed Dec.2022:Zhejiang GeelyHolding Group Co.Ltd.&GeelyAutomobile Holdings Ltd.outlooks revised to neg

13、ative on margin pressure,BBB-ratings affirmedRating Buffers Vary Among Rated CarmakersNote:We only include financial triggers in the downgrade trigger.*BAIC Motor Corp.Ltd.(BBB/Stable/-)is a core subsidiary of Beijing Automotive Group.The rating is equalized to the rating on the parent company.FAWs

14、EBITDA excludes the sales company of Toyota brand.The trigger and forecasts for Dongfeng Motor Group Co.Ltd.are the parent companys numbersand are on a proportionately consolidated basis.Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd.(BBB-/Negative/-)is a core subsidiary of Zhejiang GeelyHolding Group.The rating is

15、equalized to the rating on the parent company.Zhejiang GeelyHolding Groups EBITDA has proportionately consolidated with that of Polestar since 2022.*The forecasts for Johnson Electric Holdings Ltd.are for fiscal years 2023-2025(year ending March 31).The EBITDA margin trigger and forecasts of Yanfeng

16、 International Automotive Technology Co.Ltd.are the parent companys numbers.Source:S&P Global Ratings.FFO-Funds from operations.N/A-Not applicable.Source:S&P Global Ratings.Beijing Automotive Group Co.Ltd.*China FAWGroup Co.Ltd.Dongfeng Motor Group Co.Ltd.Zhejiang GeelyHolding Group Co.Ltd.Issuer cr

17、edit ratingBBB/Stable/-A/Stable/-A/Negative/-BBB-/Negative/-Downgrade triggerEBITDA marginN/A8%8%2.0 xFFO/debt1.5x1.5x1.5xEBITDA margin15%Material&sustained deterioration 1.5x1.5xEBITDA interest coverage25.0 x in 2022,8.0 x-11.0 x in 2023-2024Net cash1.5xEBITDA interest coverage0.7x-2.5x8.0 x-20.0 x

18、10.0 x-15.0 xChina Engineering and ConstructionChinas E&C Market To See Healthy Growth In 2023Infrastructure Push Supports New Contract IntakeSolid Order Backlog Underpins Revenue GrowthTotal infra.investment(including power&utilities)grew 11.5%in 2022.We expect total infra.investment to stay high i

19、n 2023,supported by government policies ahead of Chinas full economic recovery.New contracts in Chinas E&C industry grew 6.4%year-on-year in 2022,as the governments infrastructure push offset the impact of the property slowdown.The industry order backlog reached RMB71.6 trillion as of end 2022,2.3 t

20、imes industry output.This indicates good growth prospects for the next 12-24 months.Source:Wind,National Bureau of Statistics,S&P Global Ratings.Source:Wind,National Bureau of Statistics,S&P Global Ratings.-3%0%3%6%9%12%15%18%21%(5,000)05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00020018201920

21、2020212022Billion RMBChina construction industry outputIndustrys new contractsIndustry output growth-YoYNew contract growth-YoY1.51.82.12.42.73.03.33.6010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,0002000212022xBillion RMBIndustry order backlog(left scale)Industry order backlog

22、/output(right scale)SOEs To Gain ShareSOEs Are Taking Market Share From POEsOrder Intake Was Strong For Most Rated E&C FirmsE&C state-owned enterprise(SOE)market share increased to 57%in 2022,measured by total order backlog.It was 53%in the same period of 2021.The trend will likely continue in 2023

23、because SOEs have:(1)financial stability and good access to funding;(2)solid project execution track records;and(3)more advanced construction technology for complex infra.investment projects.Privately owned E&C enterprises will continue to underperform the overall E&C industry.Most focus on resident

24、ial housing construction.Narrow business scope,deteriorating financial strength,and inferior access to finance means they are less well-placed to capture growth opportunities.Source:Wind,S&P Global Ratings.Source:Wind,National Bureau of Statistics,S&P Global Ratings.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%010,00020,000

25、30,00040,00050,00060,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Billion RMBSOE order backlog(left scale)SOE market share(right scale)SOE order backlog YoY(right scale)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.5(20)(15)(10)(5)055ChinaAluminumInternationalEngineeringShanghaiConstructionGroupChina S

26、tateConstructionEngineeringChina RailwayGroupMetallurgicalCorp.China RailwayConstructionPowerConstruction(listco)x annual revenueYear on year change%New orders 2021(left scale)New orders 2022(left scale)2021 0rder backlog(right scale)Rated E&C Firms To See Revenue And Margin ExpansionRated E&C Firms

27、 To see Healthy Revenue GrowthMargins Of Rated Entities May Trend UpWe expect the revenue of rated E&C companies to grow 8%-11%in 2023 after an estimated 9%-12%growth in 2022.Some of our rated E&C companies have 4%-18%of revenue exposed to property development businesses.Even so,their E&C business g

28、rowth should continue to mitigate against lackluster property development businesses in 2023.EBITDA margins of most rated E&C companies could trend up modestly in 2023,after a dip in 2022.That said,impairment provision ratios will likely stay high with downside risk in cash collection from LGFVs.Not

29、e:Aggregated revenue includes CSCEC,CREC,CRCC,PCCC,CMGC,SCG,Chalieco and BCEG.Source:Company disclosures,S&P Global Ratings.Note:Aggregated EBITDA include CSCEC,CREC,CRCC,PCCC,CMGC,SCG,Chalieco and BCEG.Source:Company disclosures,S&P Global Ratings.2%3%4%5%6%7%0050020022E2023E2

30、024EBillion RMBAggregated EBITDA of rated entities(left scale)Average EBITDA margin(right scale)Average SG&A/Revenue ratio(right scale)0%5%10%15%20%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,00020022E2023E2024EBillion RMBAggregated revenue of rated entities(left scale)Revenue YoY(right scale)E

31、xpansion Appetite And Profitability Drive RatingsSustained Negative FOCF Will Drive Up DebtSufficient Financial Headroom For Most Rated IssuersWe expect rated entities leverage to remain at a relatively high level on a continuous free cash outflow.In addition to earnings growth,they adopted differen

32、t measures to control leverage,incl.asset disposal,debt to equity swap,etc.Their EBITDA interest coverage ratio should be stable in 2022-2023 as financing costs are likely to stay low in China.This ratio is the rating trigger for most E&C entities.We view it as reflective of SOE E&C companies underl

33、ying financial risk,given their refinancing track record and wide funding sources.Some rated E&C companies(such as BCEG and PCCC)could see meaningful rating pressure if their EBITDA margins underperform our base case by 0.5-1.0 percentage points in 2022-2024.This could be driven by a higher impairme

34、nt provision ratio or a worse-than-expected performance of property businesses.Note:Aggregated FOCF include CSCEC,CREC,CRCC,PCCC,CMGC,SCG,Chaliecoand BCEG.FOCF Free operating cash flow.Source:Company disclosures,S&P Global Ratings.e-Estimate.Source:Company reports,S&P Global Ratings.(500)(400)(300)(

35、200)(100)020212022E2023E2024EBillion RMBAggregated FOCF of our rated E&C entities0123456ChinaAluminumInternationalEngineeringBeijingConstructionEngineeringGroupShanghaiConstructionGroupPowerConstructionChinaRailwayGroupChina StateConstructionEngineeringChina StateConstructionInternational

36、MetallurgicalCorp.ChinaRailwayConstructionEBITDA/interest(x)20212022e2023eAppendixRating Buffer VariesCompanyRatingRating Downgrade TriggersLatest performanceKey Rating DriversLeverageEBITDA Int.CovNew contract growthRevenue growthEst.EBITDA marginEst.LeverageEst.EBITDA Int.Cov(x)China State Constru

37、ction Engineering Corp.Ltd.(CSCEC)A/StableN.A.3.0 x2022:10.6%2021:10.3%9M 2022:14.8%9M 2021:24.3%9M 2022:6.0%9M 2021:6.5%Debt/EBITDA:9M 2022:5.3x9M 2021:4.6x9M 2022:3.79M 2021:3.7Revenue and margin expansion of E&C businesses to moderate pressure from property segment;Leverage control amid business

38、growth.CSCEC International Construction Co.Ltd.(CSCEC International)A-/StableN.A.CSCECs:3.0 xN.A.N.A.N.A.N.A.N.A.Leverage and profitability trend of its parent,CSCEC.China State Construction International Holdings Limited(CSCI)BBB/StableN.A.3.0 x9M 2022:20%9M 2021:36%9M 2022:38.9%9M 2021:25.1%1H 202

39、2:12.8%1H 2021:15.9%Debt/EBITDA:9M 2022:4.4x9M 2021:4.9x1H 2022:4.31H 2021:4.1Ability to moderate margin pressure amid business mix changes;Operating cashflow and leverage improvement.China Railway Construction Corp.Ltd.(CRCC)A-/StableFFO/Debt:12%;or3.0 x2022:15.1%2021:10.4%9M 2022:8.6%9M 2021:17.9%

40、9M 2022:5.8%9M 2021:5.6%FFO/Debt:9M 2022:13.1%9M 2021:15.6%9M 2022:3.99M 2021:3.7Investment appetite towards PPP projects;Ability to improve profitability.China Railway Group Ltd.(CREC)BBB+/StableN.A.2.0 x2022:11.1%2021:4.7%9M 2022:10.4%9M 2021:11.8%1H 2022:5.1%1H 2021:5.1%Debt/EBITDA:9M 2022:6.0 x9

41、M 2021:5.6x1H 2022:3.31H 2021:3.4Working capital managment;Investment appetite towards PPP projects.China Metallurgical Group Corp.(CMGC)and Metallurgical Corp.of China Ltd.(MCC)BBB+/StableN.A.Minmetals 2.0 x2022:11.7%2021:18.1%9M 2022:13.6%9M 2021:30.4%9M 2022:3.8%9M 2021:4.1%Debt/EBITDA:9M 2022:7.

42、1x9M 2021:7.3x9M 2022:2.89M 2021:2.8Cost control for margin improvement;Ability to maintain positive FOCF.Power Construction Corp.of China(PCCC)BBB+/StableN.A.4.0 xN.A.2022:2.1%2021:11.7%9M 2022:-11.4%9M 2021:26.1%9M 2022:4.1%9M 2021:4.2%Debt/EBITDA:9M 2022:5.0 x9M 2021:3.7x9M 2022:2.09M 2021:2.3Mar

43、gin improvement during business recovery;Appetite on investment-linked projects and land acquisitions.Beijing Construction Engineering Group Co.Ltd.(BCEG)BBB/StableN.A.2.0 x2021:-2.3%2020:28.1%9M 2022:14.0%9M 2021:7.5%9M 2022:4.2%9M 2021:4.6%Debt/EBITDA:9M 2022:12.0 x9M 2021:14.1x9M 2022:1.59M 2021:

44、1.3Profitability and leverage trend amid project mix changes;Capex and other investmentcontrol.China Aluminum International Engineering Corp.Ltd.(Chalieco)BB-/StableN.A.1.0 x2022:-13.8%2021:13.0%9M 2022:0.9%9M 2021:-2.6%9M 2022:3.7%9M 2021:4.3%Debt/EBITDA:9M 2022:41.0 x9M 2021:26.3x9M 2022:1.29M 202

45、1:1.4Project mix change and impairment uncertainties could weigh on margin;Cautiousness on participation of PPP projects.Source:Company disclosures,S&P Global Ratings.Rating Buffer Varies(Contd)CSCI(BBB/Stable/-)Source:Company disclosures,S&P Global Ratings.2.53.03.54.04.55.02.53.03.54.04.55.0201920

46、2020212022E2023E2024EDebt/EBITDAEBITDA int coverageEBITDA int coverage-Base caseDowngrade trigger-EBITDA int coverageEBITDA int coverage(EBITDA margin-0.5 ppt)EBITDA int coverage(EBITDA margin-1.0 ppt)Debt/EBITDA-Base case2.03.04.05.06.02.03.04.05.06.020022E2023E2024EDebt/EBITDAEBITDA int

47、 coverageEBITDA int coverage-Base caseDowngrade trigger-EBITDA int coverageEBITDA int coverage(EBITDA margin-0.5 ppt)EBITDA int coverage(EBITDA margin-1.0 ppt)Debt/EBITDA-Base case4.0%8.0%12.0%16.0%20.0%2.53.03.54.04.520022E2023E2024EFFO/DebtEBITDA int coverageEBITDA int coverage-Base cas

48、eDowngrade trigger-EBITDA int coverageFFO/Debt-Base caseDowngrade trigger-FFO/DebtFFO/Debt(EBITDA margin-0.5 ppt)FFO/Debt(EBITDA margin-1.0 ppt)0.04.08.012.01.02.03.04.020022E2023E2024EDebt/EBITDA EBITDA int coverageEBITDA int coverage-Base caseDowngrade trigger-EBITDA int coverageEBITDA

49、int coverage(EBITDA margin-0.5 ppt)EBITDA int coverage(EBITDA margin-1.0 ppt)Debt/EBITDA-Base caseCSCEC(A/Stable/-)&CSCEC International(A-/Stable/-)CRCC(A-/Stable/-)CREC(BBB+/Stable/-)Source:Company disclosures,S&P Global Ratings.Rating Buffer Varies(Contd)PCCC(BBB+/Stable/-)Source:Company disclosur

50、es,S&P Global Ratings.CMGC(BBB+/Stable/-)&MCC(BBB+/Stable/-)SCG(BBB/Stable/-)BCEG(BBB/Stable/-)2.04.06.08.01.03.05.07.020022E2023E2024EDebt/EBITDAEBITDA int coverageChina Minmetals EBITDA int coverage-Base caseDowngrade trigger-EBITDA int coverageEBITDA int coverage(EBITDA margin-0.5 ppt)

51、EBITDA int coverage(EBITDA margin-1.0 ppt)China Minmetals Debt/EBITDA-Base case3.06.09.012.01.01.52.02.520022E2023E2024EDebt/EBITDAEBITDA int coverageEBITDA int coverage-Base caseDowngrade trigger-EBITDA int coverageEBITDA int coverage(EBITDA margin-0.5 ppt)EBITDA int coverage(EBITDA marg

52、in-1.0 ppt)Debt/EBITDA-Base case0.02.04.06.01.52.02.53.020022E2023E2024EDebt/EBITDAEBITDA int coverageEBITDA int coverage-Base caseDowngrade trigger-Debt/EBITDADebt/EBITDA-Base caseDebt/EBITDA(EBITDA margin-0.5 ppt)Debt/EBITDA(EBITDA margin-1.0 ppt)2.06.010.014.00.01.02.03.0200

53、22E2023E2024EDebt/EBITDAEBITDA int coverageEBITDA int coverage-Base caseDowngrade trigger-EBITDA int coverageEBITDA int coverage(EBITDA margin-0.5 ppt)EBITDA int coverage(EBITDA margin-1.0 ppt)Debt/EBITDA-Base caseRating Buffer Varies(Contd)Source:Company disclosures,S&P Global Ratings.Chalieco(BB-/

54、Stable/-)(200)(100)0100200300-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.520022E2023E2024EDebt/EBITDAEBITDA int coverageEBITDA int coverage-Base caseDowngrade trigger-EBITDA int coverageEBITDA int coverage(EBITDA margin-0.5 ppt)EBITDA int coverage(EBITDA margin-1.0 ppt)Debt/EBITDA-Base caseRelated ResearchIndustr

55、yChina Industrials Poised For Bumpy Post-Pandemic Recovery,Feb-15-2023China Engineering&Construction 2023 Industry Outlook:Rated Companies To Expand with Slimmed Rating Buffers,Feb-14-2023Industry Top Trends 2023:Autos,Jan-23-2023Economic Research:Chinas Earlier Policy Shift Advances Its Recovery,Ja

56、n-18-2023China Auto:The Speedometer Is Slowing,Oct-19-2022Credit FAQ:A Look At Whos Jostling For Position In Electric Vehicle Markets,Aug-09-2022Battery Suppliers,Automakers To Take Charge As Prices Rise,May-18-2022CompanyChina Auto Manufacturer Zhejiang GeelyHolding And Subsidiary Geely Auto Outloo

57、ks Revised to Negative On Margin Pressure,Nov-22-2022Shanghai Electric Holdings Group And Subsidiary Downgraded To BBB On Slower Deleveraging;Outlook Negative,Sep-30-2022Chaliecos Proposed Disposal Of Miyu Highway Project Will Strengthen Its Rating Headroom,Sep 28,2022Dongfeng Motor Group Co.Ltd.Out

58、look Revised To Negative On Margin Deterioration;A Ratings Affirmed,Sep-19-2022China Railway Constructions Debt-Funded Growth Tightens Financial Headroom,Sep 07,2022Growth Ambition May Hinder Beijing Construction Engineerings Deleveraging,Sep 02,2022High-Growth China Railway Group On Track For More

59、Leverage,Sep 01,2022CSCEC Has Buffer To Ride Through Property Market Uncertainties,Aug 31,2022Chalieco Downgraded To BB-On Slow Deleveraging Prospects;Outlook Stable,Aug 29,2022CSCIs Business Transformation To Support Gradual Deleveraging,Aug 23,2022S&P Global Ratings Latest Research&Insightshttps:/

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