1、TIME TO RENE W YOUR PILOT S LICENSE?Five technologies board members and CEOs must keep on their radar screens2023CONTENTEXECUTIVE SUMMARY 31.TECHNOLOGY:THE ENABLER OF BUSINESS ACTIVITY 42.DISRUPTIVE,EXPONENTIAL&CONVERGENT TECHNOLOGIES 53.FIVE KEY TECHNOLOGIES TO GET ON YOUR RADAR 64.TURNING TECHNOLO

2、GY INTO BUSINESS IMPACT 20CONCLUSION 24LEAD AUTHORSPETTER KILEFORSManaging Partner,Strategy&O OSCAR BYLUNDBusiness Analyst,Travel&T MICHAEL KOLKManaging Partner,Global Head of Technology&Innovation Management JONAS ANDRENPrincipal,Strategy&O FRANCESCO MARSELLAManaging Partner,Global Head of Strategy

3、&O COAUTHORS&CONTRIBUTORSSMALL MODULAR REACTORSMichael Kruse,Managing Partner,Global Head of Energy&Utilities;Lars Thurmann-Moe,PartnerARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCEMichael Eiden,Partner,Global Head of AIBLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGYFabian Doemer,Managing PartnerQUANTUM COMPUTINGAlbert Meige,Director of Blue Shift

4、;Lucas Koennecke,ManagerCELL&GENE THERAPYUlrica Sehlstedt,Managing Partner,Global Head of Healthcare&Life SciencesSTRATEGY&ORGANIZATIONAlan Martinovich,Partner;Axel Johanson,AnalystTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION MANAGEMENTYusuke Harada,Managing Partner;Ben Thuriaux,Partner;Habib Hussein,Principal;Philip Webs

5、ter,Principal2Just as the pilot must refresh and renew capabilities continuously to be fit for flight,so must the business leader.A decade of challenging business conditions marked by geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds has led to the promise of disruptive and exponential technologies.A clear h

6、elicopter view,more than ever before,is critical in separating the winners from the less successful.Board members and CEOs need a better understanding of disruptive and exponential technologies and their impact on business.In this Report,we present five key technologies and explain why they are esse

7、ntial to be on the radar for every board member and CEO,and how they should use them to their advantage.E XECUTIVE SUMMARYARTHUR D.LITTLE3Meaningful businesses operate and thrive in a fundamental ecosystem consisting of five factors:1 humans,machines,capital,energy,and rules.Technology has always pl

8、ayed a crucial role in shaping this ecosystem to improve performance and to overcome challenges,and this remains true today(see Figure 1):1.Humans recently have been challenged by the COVID-19 pandemic,disrupting societies and economies on a global scale.However,the rapid development and release of

9、vaccines based on new mRNA technology,as well as processes to bring them to commercial use,thwarted an even more catastrophic scenario.2.Machines(computers)are pushing up against physical limits on the number of transistors that can fit on a chip,thereby struggling to deliver on Moores law(roughly a

10、 doubling every two years)and associated performance increase.Major advancements in artificial intelligence(AI)and quantum computing,however,open up a potential step change in productivity.1 From a concept created by Arthur D.Little Managing Partner Petter Kilefors and Principal Jonas Andrn.2 Ritchi

11、e,Hannah,et al.“Energy.”Our World in Data,2022.3.Capital and markets play a key role in allocating resources between sectors and over time.Adequately priced and efficiently distributed and deployed,capital acts as a powerful lubricant in the ecosystem,and we have relied on this to support the last d

12、ecade of growth.However,the current situation,characterized by a lack of capital and underinvestments,threatens a discontinuity in our ecosystem performance.4.Energy cheap,abundant,and clean is a must-have for sustainable ecosystem growth.Today,this is not the case,as 80%of global prime energy still

13、 comes from climate-degrading fossil fuels.2 Energy prices are soaring and intermittent renewable sources do not generate enough when needed.Advanced nuclear power,however,can provide the stable,safe,low-carbon energy source that the world desperately needs.5.Rules and regulations are prerequisites

14、for well-functioning markets.Current geopolitical trends characterized by a breakdown of trust between countries and trade blocs is hampering free trade,leading to a break up and regionalization of yesterdays global supply chains.Blockchain technology,with features such as cryptographic trust and tr

15、ansparency,can contribute to making supply chains more efficient,resilient,and secure.All in all,we believe that the 2020s will be very different from the 2010s,requiring businesses to assess and adapt their playbooks.Technology can help us address,mitigate,and overcome challenges,but only if they a

16、re understood and harnessed by key decision makers in business.Figure 1.Conceptual ecosystem1.TECHNOLOGY:THE ENABLER OF BUSINESS AC TIVIT YSource:Arthur D.LittleSource:Arthur D.LittleFigure 1.Conceptual ecosystemHumansMachinesCapitalRulesTechnologyEnergyTechnologyTechnologyTechnology4REPORT:TIME TO

17、RENEW YOUR PILOTS LICENSE?ARTHUR D.LITTLENever before have there been so many innovation platforms in concurrent development,reinforcing each other and creating new and previously unthinkable use cases.These platforms span a number of disruptive,sometimes exponential,and often convergent technologie

18、s.These technologies are significantly altering the way that consumers,industries,and businesses operate.At the same time,the pace at which they are evolving in terms of performance is in many cases increasing on an exponential scale,with a significant impact on business and society as a whole.Conve

19、rgence across technologies will amplify their potential.For example,the convergence of robotics,battery technologies,and AI is likely to fundamentally alter the cost structure of transportation.And the convergence of next-generation DNA sequencing,AI,and gene therapy will enable personalized medicin

20、e and thus has the potential to create a new golden age for healthcare.A third example is the convergence of application programming interfaces(APIs),social platforms,and blockchain technology,with the potential to integrate business and consumer marketplaces in ways that were not previously possibl

21、e.These transformative technologies are approaching important tipping points as performance increases and costs decrease,leading to increased demand across industry sectors.In fact,Arthur D.Little(ADL)analysis shows that market capitalization for the above-mentioned technologies combined has already

22、 cleared the US trillion-dollar mark and is forecasted to grow 15x by 2030.3 Weill,Peter,Stephanie L.Woerner,and Aman M.Shah.“Does Your C-Suite Have Enough Digital Smarts?”MIT Sloan Management Review,Spring 2021.4 Weill,Peter,et al.“It Pays to Have a Digitally Savvy Board.”MIT Sloan Management Revie

23、w,Spring 2019.THE CORPORATE COMPETENCE DEFICITSadly,it seems that many top management teams and boards of directors dont have the capabilities and track records required to harness and leverage disruptive technologies.According to a Massachusetts Institute of Technology(MIT)study3 of about 2,000 com

24、panies published in March 2021,only 7%were led by technologically competent teams;that is,a team where over half of the members are tech savvy,with a firm understanding of how emerging tech will shape their companys success.Unsurprisingly,those companies outperformed the rest by 48%in terms of reven

25、ue growth and market valuation.We believe this is because they can identify the benefits of new technologies and make investments in developing their capabilities and then outcompeting with new products,services,and business plans.Company boards arent that different either;an earlier MIT study of ar

26、ound 3,000 companies with over US$1 billion in annual revenues showed that 76%of boards werent tech savvy be it in terms of directors backgrounds,the number with tech experience,or the manner in which boards interacted with executives on technology-related issues.4 Interestingly,companies with three

27、 or more tech savvy directors on their boards reported 17%higher profit margins and 38%higher revenue growth than those with two or fewer directors.We at ADL believe that bridging the corporate competence deficit with regards to disruptive technologies should arguably be one of the most pressing iss

28、ues for every board and CEO across all industry sectors.2.DISRUP TIVE,E XP ONENTIAL&CONVERGENT TECHNOLOGIES5In helping our clients across all industries create value by linking people,strategy,and technology,we have the knowledge and experience from working with all the innovation platforms and disr

29、uptive technologies mentioned in Chapter 2.In this Report,we have selected five technologies that will play pivotal roles in shaping the future of business and society:1.Small modular reactors 2.Artificial intelligence3.Blockchain technology4.Quantum computing5.Cell and gene therapyAlthough we ackno

30、wledge the difference between AI as a“general-purpose”technology and cell and gene therapy as more“industry-specific,”we firmly believe that all five have an impact ranging far beyond any individual industry sector,and as such are of great importance to most,if not all,business leaders.5 Schneider,M

31、ycle,and Antony Froggatt.World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2021.September 2021.For each of the five technologies,our objective is to provide answers to the following questions:-What is it?-Why is it important?-What are the use cases?-What are the success stories?In aggregate,according to industry

32、 analyses,the market size of these five technologies is expected to grow exponentially(20 x)from$100 billion in 2021 to$2.2 trillion in 2030,corresponding to 40%CAGR(see Figure 2).By 2029,it will surpass todays size of the global passenger cars market!SMALL MODULAR REACTORSFollowing the first discov

33、ery of nuclear fission in 1938,it took until 1951 for electricity first to be generated from nuclear power.Following fast growth between the 1970s and late 1980s,however,nuclear energy has failed to live up to its promise.Despite being a low-carbon energy source,accidents such as Chernobyl and Fukus

34、hima have hindered the positive public perception of nuclear energy.In addition,regulatory uncertainty,long development times,and high investment cost with frequent cost overruns of new build projects have made countries and utility companies hesitant to further initiatives in nuclear fission.Conseq

35、uently,the amount of the worlds electricity production from nuclear sources fell from 17.5%in 1996 to 10.1%in 2020.53.FIVE KE Y TECHNOLOGIES TO GE T ON YOUR R ADARFigure 2.Aggregate market growth of the five technologiesSource:Arthur D.Little,industry analyst forecastsSource:Arthur D.Little,industry

36、 analyst forecastsFigure 2.Aggregate market growth of the five technologies1062,2002021203020 x+40%US$bnCAGR6REPORT:TIME TO RENEW YOUR PILOTS LICENSE?ARTHUR D.LITTLENow,governments have committed to ambitious climate-change targets that have been giving the technology a second glance.In January 2022

37、,the European Union added nuclear power to a list of projects eligible for green finance.Russias invasion of Ukraine and Europes dependency on Russian oil and gas have sent fossil fuel prices soaring and put energy security at the top of Europes political agenda.Nuclear energy is experiencing a resu

38、rgence as more countries worldwide either extend the life span of existing reactors and/or build new ones.For example,Japan shut down its fleet of 50 remaining reactors following the Fukushima accident in 2011.By now,however,Japan has already reopened 17 reactors,while 16 remain in suspended operati

39、on.Japan continues to build two new ones,albeit with slow progress.In the US,three nuclear power plants received a positive signal to extend their lifetimes to 80 years,subject to a full environment review.Germany finally seems to be backing away from its entrenched,and in hindsight misguided“Energi

40、ewende,”and a public discussion about prolonging the life span of the countrys remaining operational nuclear capacity has started.Countries like China,India,and the UK continue with their plans to revitalize and grow their nuclear fleets.Nuclear newcomers like the United Arab Emirates and the Kingdo

41、m of Saudi Arabia,as well as European countries like Hungary and the Czech Republic,are also proceeding with their nuclear energy plans.To bring the global share of nuclear energy to a level where it moves the needle as a low carbon,reliable alternative given the current state of the technology neve

42、rtheless requires far too great an investment over a too long time frame.The nuclear industry may have the answer:A new generation of small modular reactors(SMRs)that are designed to be cheaper,quicker,and less financially risky to build.In contrast to current nuclear reactors that require large saf

43、ety zones,SMRs can be placed where they are most needed.Energy production is not the main issue;instead,the bottleneck emerges when trying to both transport and store the energy efficiently.Being able to strategically place these SMRs where the need is offers a solution to a problem that traditional

44、 nuclear plants have been unable to solve.Additionally,series production,standardization,and less complicated systems result in a significant reduction of costs and timespans.6 Dalton,David.“Generation IV/Economic Modeling Compares Costs of SMR to Conventional PWR.”NUCNET,15 October 2020.Comparing a

45、 114-NW SMR to an 1,114-MW conventional reactor,6 we estimate the levelized cost of electricity(LCOE),capturing both capital and operating costs,would be below$50/MWh compared to$92/MWh for the reference plant(55%lower),and time to build would be three years instead of seven(60%faster).“Nuclear ener

46、gy,in terms of an overall safety record,is better than other energy.”Bill GatesThese characteristics position SMRs to play a key role in the transition to reliable,plentiful,and clean energy,helping countries address the sustainable development goals(SDGs).According to ADL market analysis and experi

47、ences with several nuclear players on SMRs,projected time to commercial breakthrough for SMRs is less than 10 years with an expected market size of$20 billion in 2030-2040(see Figure 3).The exponential growth of SMRs will likely accelerate in 2030-2040,when more technologies have been tested and app

48、roved and production capacity has been ramped up.To meet the learning curve effects and economies of scale needed for SMRs to provide competitive LCOE or levelized cost of heat(LCOH)will require the emergence of a small number(five to six)of dominant global SMR designs.To allow for“mass manufacturin

49、g,”these designs will have to follow an internationally harmonized licensing process and allow only minimal customization by operators individual requirements.What are SMRs?Small modular reactors are advanced nuclear reactors that have a power capacity of up to 300 MW per unit,about a third of the c

50、apacity of traditional reactors.SMRs are serially produced in a factory with a high degree of standardization and common regulations.Another key advantage is that they are designed for passive safety systems and are not dependent on external electricity and water supply.Source:IAEA,US Energy Impact

51、Center7As a function of their smaller electrical output,SMRs can be installed into an existing grid or remotely off grid,providing low-carbon power for industry and the population.They can more readily slot into brownfield sites in place of decommissioned coal-fired plants,the units of which are sel

52、dom very large.Also,SMRs can be designed to produce heat for industrial processes as well as district heating(or cooling)purposes.This makes SMRs more flexible than other renewable energy sources that would require either heat boilers or other energy conversion means like hydrogen to produce heat an

53、d steam.As such,they meet requirements to support net-zero ambitions for high-carbon emitters.While nuclear reactors provide a steady source of energy that can regulate the output according to electricity demand,renewable energy alternatives such as wind and solar are intermittent,relying on weather

54、 conditions to deliver anticipated power needs.Pairing renewable energy technologies with SMRs in hybrid energy systems holds a great potential to increase the overall effectiveness from renewable sources by also increasing application diversity of energy.To summarize,we believe that in the near fut

55、ure SMRs will empower companies,cities,and even entire nations by offering a scalable,reliable,and low-carbon way to secure current and future energy needs.Figure 3.Small modular reactors market&technology dashboard Note:(1)In a conservative scenario,the timing lies between 2030 and 2040;(2)compared

56、 with conventional nuclear technology Source:Arthur D.Little,industry analyst forecastsNote:1)In a conservative scenario,the timing lies between 2030 and 2040;(2)Compared with conventional nuclear technologySource:Arthur D.Little,industry analyst forecastsFigure 3.Small modular reactors market&techn

57、ology dashboardGrowth multiple 20212030CAGR 20212030Market size20301US$20 bn+20%6xTime to market5-10 yearsTime to build*Cost reduction(LCOE)2-55%-60%Market development metricsTechnology development metricsWhat are the SMR use cases?More than 70 commercial SMR designs are being developed around the w

58、orld to target different applications,such as:-Electricity&heating-Hybrid energy systems-Steam and hydrogen for industrial applications-Other energy-intense applications (e.g.,water desalination)Source:Arthur D.Little,IAEASuccess story powered by SMRNuScale,a publicly traded US SMR company,made hist

59、ory in 2020 as the first-ever company to receive SMR design approval from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission(NRC).Foundational to the Carbon Free Power Project,NuScale has been contracted to build a multi-module VOYGR-6(462 MW)SMR plant in Idaho,USA,with the first module generating electricity in

60、2029.A long list of utility companies across the US have signed memorandums of understanding(MOUs)to explore the applicability of NuScales SMR technologies.Following COP26,corresponding agreements have been signed with utilities in Romania,Bulgaria,Poland,the Czech Republic,Ukraine,and the UK.Source

61、:NuScale138REPORT:TIME TO RENEW YOUR PILOTS LICENSE?ARTHUR D.LITTLEARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Few of us have missed the aha moment presented by ChatGPT,a chatbot recently introduced to the public domain by Open AI,an AI research and deployment company with the mission to ensure that artificial general

62、intelligence benefits all of humanity.ChatGPT is trained to follow an instruction in a prompt and provide a detailed response.It has proved that AI models are now so powerful that many of them pass the so-called Turing test,where the user cannot distinguish whether the counterpart is a human or a ma

63、chine.As an example,this is the answer from ChatGPT to the prompt,“Explain ChatGPT in simple terms”:7“ChatGPT is a type of computer program known as a language model.It is trained to understand and generate text in a way that mimics human language.It can be used to answer questions,write stories,or

64、even generate code.It uses a type of machine learning called deep learning,which involves training a large neural network on a dataset of text.This allows it to understand and generate text in a way that is similar to how a human would.”Problems previously thought to be intractable can now be solved

65、 by software and other computational systems that learn and evolve by integrating new data.AI will transform business as we know it and further accelerate computational technologys integration into all economic sectors.Businesses today are facing challenges and encountering new levels of complexity

66、above and beyond any historical precedence,while remaining stuck with many repetitive tasks and lots of unused data.8 These are great targets for AI to drive efficiency and enhanced decision support.However,performance of AI models is dependent on data quality to learn and deliver.Therefore,companie

67、s need not only build the right AI models,but also make sure that they possess and structure data correctly to successfully train the models.7“ChatGPT:Optimizing Language Models for Dialogue.”OpenAI,30 November 2022.8 For more on the topic of AI,see Eiden,Michael(ed.).“Navigating the Prospects and P

68、erils of AI.”Cutter Business Technology Journal (renamed Amplify),Vol.34,No.5,2021.9“IBM Global AI Adoption Index 2022.”IBM Corporation,May 2022.The benefits of AI are obvious:higher efficiency,higher productivity,and better decision-making.These are not new facts:35%of companies globally are alread

69、y using some form of AI in their business.9Deep learning was partly enabled by big data and graphic processing units(GPUs),making it possible to access huge amounts of data and processing power for training AI solutions.Deep learning can ingest unstructured data in its raw form(e.g.,text,images),and

70、 can automatically determine the set of features that distinguishes different categories of data from one another.Classical,or“non-deep,”machine learning is more dependent on human intervention,especially when it comes to the task of creating features.Research by ARK Invest suggests that by 2030,AI

71、will have increased the output of knowledge workers by 140%.“Were at the beginning of a golden age of AI.Recent advancements have already led to inventions that previously lived in the realm of science fiction and weve only scratched the surface of whats possible.”Jeff BezosWhat is AI?In its simples

72、t form,AI is the field of technology that combines computer science and large data sets to enable problem solving.AI consists of two subfields,machine learning(ML)and deep learning(DL).By providing the AI systems with large data sets and manually“training”the system through iterative processing algo

73、rithms,the system can identify patterns from the data sets and from that learn how to perform certain tasks.Source:Arthur D.Little,IBM9Developing at an exponential pace,AI training costs are declining at more than twice the rate of Moores law(see Figure 4).ARK Invest shares its perspective on AIs st

74、unning performance development:“Given 240 trillion synapses,the cost to train a neural network equivalent in size to the human brain in 2021 would have been$2.5 billion and is likely to drop 60%at an annual rate to$600,000 by 2030.”10 AI is potentially the most disruptive and exponential candidate a

75、mong the five technologies in this Report,and it is already seeing valuable use across industries.10“ARK Big Ideas Summit.“ARK Invest,2022.11 For more on knowledge graphs,see:Eiden,Michael(ed.).“Connecting the Dots with Knowledge Graphs.”Amplify,Vol.35,No.7,2022.Knowledge graphs are an emerging tech

76、nology within AI.11 They can represent complex relationships between heterogeneous data sets in transparent and scalable way and enable a wide range of AI use cases.ADLs Digital Problem Solving(DPS)team has successfully used knowledge graphs in very diverse projects such as in the detection of early

77、-onset disease patterns for rare disease patients,the investigation of passenger flows at one of the worlds largest airports,and for the analysis of regulatory compliance in the pharmaceutical industry,among others.Natural language processing(NLP)applications have reached superhuman performance in s

78、ome tasks and are enabling more intuitive interactions between humans and machines,especially in combination with knowledge graphs.To summarize,as we watch how AI is stretching the borders of what is possible and taking the human-machine collaboration to an entirely new state,we must ask ourselves:H

79、ave I truly understood the business-critical AI use cases that apply to my industry and my organization?Figure 4.AI market&technology dashboard Source:Arthur D.Little,industry analyst forecastsSource:Arthur D.Little,industry analyst forecastsFigure 4.AI market&technology dashboardGrowth multiple 202

80、12030CAGR 20212030Market size2030 US$1,800bn+40%29xTime to market0yearsMoores lawAnnual decrease in cost to train a neural network-60%2xMarket growthTechnology developmentWhat are the use cases of AI?There are numerous,real-world applications of AI systems today,for example:-Speech recognition uses

81、NLP to translate human speech into a written format.-Customer service chatbots and virtual agents replacing human agents along the customer journey.-Computer vision enables computers to derive valuable information from digital images,videos,and other visual inputs.-Recommendation engines AI algorith

82、ms discover data trends used to develop more effective cross-selling strategies.-Fraud detection banks and financial institutions use ML to spot suspicious transactions.Source:Arthur D.Little,IBMSuccess story powered by AINearly 9 million tons of plastic enter our oceans each year,impacting more tha

83、n 600 marine species.The Ocean Cleanup project has developed a passive clean-up system backed by AI that uses ML to identify,locate,and remove tons of plastic from the worlds waterways.The objective is to scale the system and to reduce ocean plastic by 90%by 2040.Source:Arthur D.Little,Microsoft131

84、0REPORT:TIME TO RENEW YOUR PILOTS LICENSE?ARTHUR D.LITTLEBLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGYCryptocurrencies are the most commonly cited examples of blockchains potential,but unfortunately they have also called the technology into question,as the(expected)crash of cryptocurrencies and stock markets followed the e

85、xaggerated hype.We advise corporate decision makers to avoid drawing negative conclusions about the relevance of blockchain technology for companies.The real magic of blockchain resides in the powerful management of decentralized digital transactions in complex ecosystems.From increased security and

86、 visibility to tracking complex variables related to sustainability and ethical sourcing,blockchain is set to facilitate organizations across industries to lower their costs and improve their performance.Blockchains are perfect to document digital transactions reliably and comprehensibly for the par

87、ticipants,without the need for an intermediary to ensure trust.Decentralized processes in the global ecosystem such as in supply chain management,for example are perfect for this.Todays supply chain networks consist of multiple players that are connected and need to collaborate efficiently.There are

88、 numerous value-adding processes,handovers,and transactions involved before the products reach their final destination.Still,there are many unresolved issues regarding traceability,transparency,and accountability between involved parties since much of their work relies on trust and compliance.Supply

89、 chains are becoming more complex with the introduction of new logistics concepts enabled by integration of robotics and Internet of Things(IoT),such as autonomous delivery vehicles and product-monitoring devices.This has generated more data throughout the supply chain and raised concerns regarding

90、transparency and security.Given support from adequate business processes,blockchain can add great value to supply chains,including improved traceability,security,automation,and speed.“Anything that can conceive of as a supply chain,blockchain can vastly improve its efficiency it doesnt matter if its

91、 sic people,numbers,data,money.”Ginni Rometty,former IBM CEOA public blockchain,also known as an open or permissionless blockchain,is one where anybody can join the network freely and establish a node.Because of their open nature,these blockchains must be secured with cryptography and a consensus sy

92、stem like proof of work(PoW),which is the variant used to secure the Bitcoin network.A private or permissioned blockchain,on the other hand,requires each node to be approved before joining.Because nodes are considered to be trusted,the layers of security do not need to be as robust.Blockchain provid

93、es immediate,shared,and completely transparent information stored on an immutable ledger that can be accessed only by permissioned network members.Among other things,a blockchain network can track orders,payments,accounts,and production.And because members share a single view of the truth,you can se

94、e all details of a transaction end to end.The blockchain trilemma states that it is virtually impossible for a system to simultaneously achieve equally high levels of decentralization,security,and scalability.Realistically,blockchain networks can only have two out of three factors.Highly decentraliz

95、ed public blockchain networks(e.g.,Bitcoin)have very high security but low scalability.More centralized private blockchain networks(e.g.,among supply chain partners)have high scalability and security but at the expense of low decentralization.What is a blockchain?In simple terms,a blockchain is a sh

96、ared database or ledger.It is stored on many computers in a peer-to-peer network.Each node always has a complete copy of the blockchain.All nodes together have the task of verifying and documenting transactions:security and real-time transparency are“built in.”Source:Arthur D.Little1 1Scalability fo

97、r public blockchains can drastically improve up to 1000 x if one is willing to accept a less decentralized and secure network(see Figure 5).There are many scaling solutions available,such as“sharding,”which splits the blockchain network into multiple smaller groups of nodes or parallel processing,or

98、“payment channels,”temporary channels on which some transactions are transferred to reduce the load on the main chain and to improve throughput.The former will be implemented on the Ethereum Layer 1 blockchain,while the latter is implemented through the“Lightning network”as a Layer 2 scaling solutio

99、n on the Bitcoin blockchain.The market size for blockchain applications in the non-financial industry is forecasted to reach$300 billion in 2030,growing exponentially with a 110 x increase from 2020.The technology is already being put to use across industries but is still in an early growth phase.Si

100、nce the properties of blockchain lends itself for applications in most if not all sectors,the potential impact on business and society combined is huge.Although initial industrial usage of blockchains has had a slower than expected take-up rate,the results of the survey we conducted with Blockchain

101、in Transport Alliance indicate that industry still views blockchain as potentially disruptive.Over 70%of respondents believe blockchain could increase process efficiency,and nearly 60%said it had the potential to disrupt business models.One specific sector with a large potential benefit from the use

102、 of blockchain technology is transportation.ADL worked with a large mobility provider to create immutable visibility of goods movement for all logistics partners involved in the supply chain(see Figure 6).Once changes of ownership are recorded through barcode scanning at the different trans-shipment

103、 points,data is securely stored in the blockchain and payments are automatically triggered.Self-executing smart contracts reduce processing of manual paperwork and help to prevent time delays,reduce human errors,and decrease the amount of additional work resulting from inefficient handling of data.F

104、igure 5.Blockchain market&technology dashboardNote:(1)Industrial blockchain applications onlySource:Arthur D.Little,industry analyst forecastsNote:(1)Industrial blockchain applications onlySource:Arthur D.Little,industry analyst forecastsFigure 5.Blockchain market&technology dashboardGrowth multiple

105、 20212030CAGR 20212030Market size12030 US$300 bn+60%+110 xTime to market0 yearsMarket growthLatency/block time(seconds)Throughput(Transactions per second TPS)+1,000 x-1,000 xTechnology developmentFigure 6.Blockchain technologySource:Arthur D.LittleSource:Arthur D.LittleFigure 6.Blockchain technology

106、TO:Blockchain value-addFROM:Supply chain challengesTransparency&trustProcess efficiencyLimited track-and-trace capabilitiesPermanent visibility through real-time auditsTraceabilityMistrust involved in data sharingEstablishment of“single version of truth”SecurityInefficient handling of dataSelf-execu

107、ting processes by smart contractsAutomatizationRegulatory compliance requires fraud checksImmutable data reduces need for intermediariesSpeed1 2REPORT:TIME TO RENEW YOUR PILOTS LICENSE?ARTHUR D.LITTLEThere are numerous examples of large industrial companies that have implemented blockchain technolog

108、y in their operations.Renault,for instance,recently implemented blockchain to manage its entire supply chain documentation.The reason behind the decision to do so was that blockchain brings improved traceability,transparency,and accountability.The sharing of goods data is accurate and happens immedi

109、ately between participants,meaning less time is spent on inefficient tasks such as documentation,trading files,emailing,or calling each other,and more time is spent on higher value-add activities.Inconsistencies in data that took hours in the past to resolve are now eliminated.As a result,Renault no

110、w has an increased transparency between partners and an increased reactivity vis-vis customers.Another example is Maersks TradeLens platform,which applies blockchain technology to global supply chains via its trade document module,enabling secure cross-business information exchange.This helps to pre

111、vent delays that result from inaccurate documentation or slow information exchange.In addition,experience has demonstrated that warranty-handling(e.g.,automating insurance payouts)and demand-planning processes between manufacturers and suppliers can be significantly streamlined by drawing on secure

112、information exchange and self-executing contracts.To summarize,we are confident that blockchains will play a key part in enabling crucial characteristics in supply chains across the globe in the areas of security,traceability,automation,and speed thus securing trust at a time of geopolitical fragmen

113、tation.What are the use cases of blockchain technology?Outside of supply chains and logistics,there are many other use case examples across industries:-Automotive maintenance logs,on-demand services.-Consumer&retail certification of origin,loyalty management.-Energy&utilities energy trading,securiti

114、zation of assets.-Healthcare health records,staff credential verification,IoT security for remote monitoring.-Telecom fraud management,seamless authentication.-Public services passport and visa administration,real estate registry.Source:Arthur D.LittleSuccess story powered by blockchainA successful

115、example of blockchain-enabled process enhancement is Switzerland-based container specialist SkyCell.The company developed a tailor-made transport solution for biopharmaceuticals offering certainty where trust reaches its limits.Biopharmaceuticals are medical drugs based on proteins and are therefore

116、 exceptionally temperature sensitive.To ensure quality,no temperature deviations are acceptable when shipped.SkyCell offers insulated containers equipped with temperature sensors that record the inside temperature during delivery.When such a containers barcode is scanned at a trans-shipment point,in

117、 addition to standard shipping information,temperature data is securely stored in the blockchain.This provides clients with evidence of a maintained cold chain and integrity of the product.Source:Arthur D.Little,SkyCell131 3QUANTUM COMPUTING Quantum computing is among the most hyped technology topic

118、s at the moment and is on every tech giants agenda.IBM,Google,Microsoft,and others are aggressively investing in quantum computing.Such computers process data at massive speed with great power savings,which ultimately redefines what is possible in the AI and ML fields.The last few years have seen an

119、 acceleration of activity in quantum computing,with venture capital increasing 50%to over$1 billion from 2020 to 2021 and estimates of total global investment now reaching$25 billion.12At present,the technology is not yet ready for practical use.There are still massive technical challenges to overco

120、me,and it will still be a few years before the hardware will be available for businesses.However,as soon as the technology is available,there will be a massive disruption of the IT world,and with it the application world as well.We advise businesses to prepare for this point in time now to avoid bei

121、ng left behind if and when a breakthrough occurs.The process by which qubits can be harnessed to perform calculations is nothing like that of a conventional computer,and the technical challenges to build a usable quantum computing device are immense.Without some in-depth knowledge in quantum physics

122、 and mathematics,it is quite impossible to really grasp how it works.But its not necessary to know how a modern computer works,either.What is crucial is to know how best to use the technology.12 Meige,Albert,Rick Eagar,and Lucas Knnecke.“Quantum Computing.”Arthur D.Little Viewpoint,2022.“Our machine

123、 performed the target computation in 200 seconds,and from measurements in our experiment we determined that it would take the worlds fastest supercomputer 10,000 years to produce a similar output.”John Martinis CSO,Quantum HW,GoogleA common misconception about quantum computing is that it will ultim

124、ately replace conventional computing because of its much greater processing power.This is not the case.In fact,quantum computing will only ever be superior to conventional computing for solving certain types of complex problems.These are problems involving systems with multiple elements,variables,an

125、d interactions,in which the solution complexity quickly scales up exponentially beyond the reach of conventional computing:so-called intractable problems.Quantum computers are suitable for intractable problems because they have a theoretical ability to perform exponentially increasing numbers of cal

126、culations simultaneously:a quantum processor with N qubits can theoretically perform 2N simultaneous calculations,so each additional qubit doubles processing power.Conventional computing,even if Moores law were to continue forever,could never achieve this.What is quantum computing?Quantum computing

127、relies on the principles of quantum mechanics,which differs from classical computations,where data is encoded as either 0 or 1.In quantum computing,computations are made with qubits,which,due to quantum physics properties,can be both 0 and 1 simultaneously.The benefits are that many calculations can

128、 be performed simultaneously.What a computer today does in thousands of years,a quantum computer does in minutes.Source:Arthur D.Little,Analytics VidhyaWhat are the use cases of quantum computing?-Simulation complex physical and molecular simulations,which could enable digital development of new mat

129、erials,chemical compounds,and drugs without the need for lab experimentation.-Optimization optimization of complex systems,such as logistics planning,distribution operations,energy grid systems,financial systems,telecoms networks,and many others.-Machine learning AI and ML applications require very

130、high processing power,stretching the limits of conventional computing.-Cryptography a quantum algorithm has already been developed to conduct rapid integer factoring,which poses a disruptive threat to conventional cryptographic protection approaches.Source:Arthur D.Little1 4REPORT:TIME TO RENEW YOUR

131、 PILOTS LICENSE?ARTHUR D.LITTLEAlthough commercial breakthrough of quantum computing remains many years away,a lot of groundwork is being done(see Figure 7).Behind Big Tech there are now more than 450 quantum computing start-ups worldwide.The roadmap for completion of new prototypes promised by the

132、ecosystem is extensive,with at least 20 new devices to be announced by the key players between now and 2030.A conservative assumption would be that the key milestone of achieving a fault-tolerant large-scale quantum computer might occur in the period 2030-2040.One promising avenue in the shorter ter

133、m is hybrid quantum computing,in which quantum computing is used as an accelerator for a conventional high-performance computer to run specially designed hybrid algorithms.But quantum computing also comes with a challenge:mature quantum computers will be able to break the most widely used security p

134、rotocols in the world.For example,until very recently,methods of encryption based on prime factorization were considered unbreakable and were used to safeguard everything from email to banking to credit cards.Quantum algorithms can break these systems.Given the accelerated advancements of quantum co

135、mputing,everything secured with prime factorization could become insecure in the years to come.Developing and migrating to“quantum safe”encryption methods will therefore be of significant importance.From an economic point of view,growth projections for the quantum computing market up to 2030 vary fr

136、om less than$5 billion to more than$60 billion,depending on the source(see Figure 8).What does all this mean for businesses?Even if the hardware is not yet widely available,it is nevertheless advisable to start dealing with the topic now:Figure 7.Quantum computing application timescalesNIST:US Natio

137、nal Institute of Standards and Technology;PQC:Post-Quantum CryptographySource:Arthur D.LittleGenomic sequencingElectronic structure simulationLarge molecular simulationLarge-scale drug discoverySupply chain optimizationLarge-scale fraud detectionSmall molecular simulationRisk mngt.&assessmentBattery

138、 chemistry&catalysisSmall-scale protein foldingMaterial design simulationPrice predictionsAutonomous vehicle navigationSmall-scale molecular dockingSmall-scale drug discoveryInvestment portfolio optimizationVehicle routingNIST standards of PQCLogistics planningSmall-scale fraud detectionWeather pred

139、ictionNIST:US National Institute of Standards and Technology;PQC:Post-Quantum CryptographySource:Arthur D.LittleFigure 7.Quantum computing application timescalesSooner(2024+)Later(2029+)OptimizationSimulationMachine learning(ML)CryptographyFigure 8.Quantum computing market&technology dashboardNote:(

140、1)Only for very specific and aligned problem solving Source:Arthur D.Little,industry analyst forecastsNote:1)Only for very specific and aligned problem solvingSource:Arthur D.Little,industry analyst forecastsFigure 8.Quantum computing market&technology dashboardGrowth multiple 20212030CAGR 20212030M

141、arket size2030 US$30 bn+30%+15xTime to market10-20yearsMarket growthYearly performance increase(#qubits)Performance factor vs.conventional computer1+250mx+2xTechnology development1 51.Quantum computers will suddenly be available in a few years.There will then be a real run on the services and the av

142、ailable experts.Therefore,we recommend that you start building up the competence in your company now.Otherwise you will be left behind later.2.Conventional software no longer runs on quantum computers because the architecture is completely different.But software prepared for quantum computers also r

143、uns on conventional hardware.Therefore,it should already be switched to future-oriented software in certain segments.3.Quantum computingoptimized algorithms are already available today and can accelerate certain processes on conventional hardware.This software can then be run immediately on the new

144、hardware later and allows an immediate significant acceleration.Forward-thinking organizations see quantum as an opportunity to leap ahead of the competition.Of large enterprises surveyed,40%are already experimenting with quantum computing.1313 D-Wave Systems,451 Research,accessed December 2022.CELL

145、&GENE THERAPYImagine a world where your health situation was not determined by chance and luck at birth.For example,a world where it wasnt possible to be born with,or to develop later in life,faulty genes that cause diseases such as cancer,heart disease,hemophilia,or blindness.In the future,people m

146、ay have greater control over their own fates.It may be possible,in fact,to level the playing field.The convergence of next-generation DNA sequencing,AI,and gene editing has the potential to transform healthcare.These advances could accelerate the pace of scientific discovery,personalizing medicine t

147、o cure disease instead of masking symptoms.Cell therapy and gene therapy are overlapping fields of biomedical research and treatment.Both therapies aim to treat,prevent,or potentially cure diseases,and both approaches have the potential to alleviate the underlying causes of genetic and acquired dise

148、ases,though they work differently.Genes and cells are intimately related.Within the cells of our bodies,there are thousands of genes that provide the information to produce specific proteins that the cells consist of.Cells are the basic building blocks of all living things;the human body is composed

149、 of trillions.Success story powered by quantum computingMaking the switch from coal to natural gas will improve air quality and reduce carbon intensity.But the issue isnt just one of production its also a problem of transportation.In 2021,more than 500 LNG(liquefied natural gas)ships were used to tr

150、ansport critical fuel supplies across the oceans.Finding optimal routes for a fleet of such ships can be a mind-bendingly complex optimization problem.Even with a simplified problem involving just dozens of ships,the number of possible combinations of different decisions can reach 21,000,000.Thats g

151、reater than the total number of atoms in the universe.Quantum computers take a new approach to addressing this sort of complexity.Industry leaders like Exxon are getting involved now to explore how blending classical and quantum computing techniques might solve big,complex,pressing global challenges

152、.Source:Arthur D.Little,IBM13What is cell and gene therapy?Cell therapy aims to treat diseases by restoring or altering certain sets of cells or by using cells to carry a therapy through the body.With cell therapy,cells are cultivated or modified outside the body before being injected into the patie

153、nt.The cells may originate from the patient(autologous cells)or a donor(allogeneic cells).Gene therapy aims to treat diseases by replacing,inactivating,or introducing genes into cells,either inside the body(in vivo)or outside of the body(ex vivo).Some therapies are considered both cell and gene ther

154、apies.These therapies work by altering genes in specific types of cells and inserting them into the body.Source:Arthur D.Little,American Society of Gene&Cell Therapy,US Food&Agriculture Administration(FDA)1 6REPORT:TIME TO RENEW YOUR PILOTS LICENSE?ARTHUR D.LITTLEThe genes provide the information th

155、at creates this blueprint,enabling and giving different cells their different purposes.Groups of many cells make up the tissues and organs of the body,including muscles,bones,and blood.Sometimes certain genes,or parts of them,are defective or completely missing from birth.This is typically referred

156、to as a genetically inherited mutation.In addition,healthy genes can mutate(i.e.,change)over the course of our lives.These acquired mutations can be caused by environmental exposures.The good news is that most of these genetic mutations do not cause disease in fact,it is because of beneficial mutati

157、ons that humans evolved into what we are today.However,it is inevitable that some mutations(either inherited or spontaneous)can cause,for example,developmental disorders,neurological diseases,and cancer.“Imagine a world where no life is limited by genetic disease and the ambition of gene therapy to

158、treat or possibly prevent disease is realized for the millions of people living with an inherited condition.”Jeff Marrazzo Founder,Spark TherapeuticsThe scientific field for gene therapy products is fast-paced and rapidly evolving and is now finally ushering in a new approach to the treatment of can

159、cer and other serious and rare diseases.The first gene therapy targeting cancer was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration(FDA)in 2017.Fast-forward five years and the number of cell and gene therapy treatments approved by the FDA has jumped to 27.The wide array of therapies includes one for

160、 spinal muscular atrophy and others for cartilage defects of the knee,retinal dystrophy,several types of cancer,and thermal burns.The cell therapy field is moving fast as well.One of the most widely known successful cell-based gene therapies,CAR-T(chimeric antigen receptor T-cell),involves the use o

161、f genetically reengineered versions of a patients own T-cells to find cancer cells and defeat them.As of 2022,there are six CAR-T therapies licensed for use by the FDA,almost all for cancer indications.CAR-T has pushed the boundaries of medicine,and the success observed in patient treatment has crea

162、ted interest in the use of CAR-T to treat other types of tumors,including solid ones,as well as other genetic diseases.14 Global CAR T Cell Therapy Market Opportunity&Clinical Pipeline Insight 2028.Kuick Research,May 2022.This is evidenced by the large number of completed and ongoing clinical trials

163、 reported by the National Institutes of Health(NIH)involving the use of CAR-T(700),with the large majority of these targeting a range of cancers and a smaller share targeting chronic,infectious,and autoimmune diseases.The global CAR-T cell therapy market opportunity alone is expected to surpass$15 b

164、illion by 2028.14 An important aspect of realizing this potential will be scaling up using allogeneic(cells from a donor)or“off-the-shelf”CAR-T,which has moved into early-phase clinical testing with the hope that it will offer many advantages over autologous(cells from the patient)regimens.The key a

165、dvantages are:shorter manufacturing time,lower cost,and a more potent therapy using healthy donor cells.Even with the massive disruption of the healthcare sector caused by COVID-19,the pace of activity in cell and gene therapies has not slowed(see Figure 9);if anything,it has accelerated in the past

166、 year.In 2020,total financing in regenerative medicine doubled to almost$20 billion from just under$10 billion the year before,according to the Alliance for Regenerative Medicine.What are the use cases of cell and gene therapy?Cell therapy products include cellular immunotherapies,cancer vaccines,st

167、em cells,and more.Human gene therapy seeks to modify the expression of a gene or to alter the biological properties of living cells for therapeutic use.Indications targeted by the 20+FDA-approved cell and gene therapy treatments today include:-Cancer multiple myeloma,B-cell lymphoma,mantle cell lymp

168、homa,prostate cancer.-Rare diseases spinal muscular atrophy,cartilage defects of the knee,retinal dystrophy,thermal burns,nasolabial fold wrinkles,congenital athymia,-thalassemia.Source:Arthur D.Little,American Society of Gene&Cell Therapy,Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research(CBER),FDA1 7Cel

169、l and gene therapies are examples of“curative treatments;”time-limited treatments that remove the symptoms of a disease through permanent correction of the underlying condition.In contrast,a treatment in which a patient remains healthy only with the continuous taking of a pill,injection,or infusion

170、only masks the actual condition,temporarily hiding symptoms or stopping disease progression for the moment.This is not curative.Essentially,patients who previously had to rely on ongoing medication can now be cured through specific,time-limited courses of treatment,transforming their lives.Once a pa

171、tient who suffers from a particular condition has been successfully treated,the need for additional medical care is significantly reduced,and thus the product lifecycle(medical treatment)will drastically shorten putting a high premium on speed and creativity in clinical and regulatory approaches and

172、 on replenishment of the pipeline.With curative treatments,payers expenditure drastically shifts from ongoing,long-term,and relatively low-cost drugs to large,front-loaded therapy costs.As a consequence,the revenue profile for therapy providers will shift accordingly,implying a need to change the pr

173、icing strategy in order to recoup investments over a far shorter time span.To summarize,this new technology will disrupt the entire healthcare ecosystem and lead to a number of consequences for patients,policy makers,payers,providers,and pharma companies alike.The wider relevance of cell and gene th

174、erapy for business leaders across industry sectors is more apparent than it may seem.Without it,and specifically without the mRNA vaccines for COVID-19 that it enabled,more severe disruption of both the demand and supply side of the economy arguably would have impacted businesses,irrespective of ind

175、ustry and geography,considerably more than it did and still does.Furthermore,advances in biomedical therapy will contribute to more curative treatments,better medical outcomes,and improved vaccines.These will accrue as value for business and society at large.Figure 9.Cell&gene therapy market&technol

176、ogy dashboard Source:Arthur D.Little,industry analyst forecastsSource:Arthur D.Little,industry analyst forecastsFigure 9.Cell&gene therapy market&technology dashboardGrowth multiple 20212030CAGR 20212030Market size2030 US$60 bn+30%15xTime to market0 yearsMarket growthExpected#of approved cell and ge

177、ne therapies(in 2024 vs.average per year 20172021)Cost reduction to sequence a humane genome in past 10 years-20 x+25xTechnology developmentSuccess story powered by gene therapy CAR-T therapy involves the use of genetically reengineered versions of a patients own T-cells to find cancer cells and def

178、eat them.As of 2022,there are six CAR-T therapies licensed for use by the FDA.CAR-T has pushed the boundaries of medicine,and the success observed in patient treatment has created interest in the use of CAR-T to treat other types of tumors,including solid ones,as well as other genetic diseases.This

179、is evidenced by the large number of clinical trials involving the use of CAR-T(1000),with the large majority of these targeting a range of cancers and a smaller share targeting chronic,infectious,and autoimmune diseases.Source:Arthur D.Little,ClinicalTrials.gov131 8REPORT:TIME TO RENEW YOUR PILOTS L

180、ICENSE?ARTHUR D.LITTLE1 94.TURNING TECHNOLOGY INTO BUSINESS IMPAC TIn todays complex and uncertain world,only organizations that understand and harness technology to become more agile,innovative,productive,and sustainable will succeed.Transforming through technology requires new skills,capabilities,

181、and leadership,combined with the ability to understand and apply technology where it delivers its greatest benefit.ONLY ORGANIZATIONS THAT UNDERSTAND AND HARNESS TECHNOLOGY TO BECOME MORE AGILE,INNOVATIVE,PRODUCTIVE,AND SUSTAINABLE WILL SUCCEEDBusiness leaders should therefore begin by analyzing the

182、 short-,medium-,and long-term technology trends that are most relevant within their organization to drive future success.Leading companies understand that this requires a continuous and systematic approach to yield tangible results over time(see Figure 10).TECHNOLOGY TRENDS RADARTo facilitate monito

183、ring and assessment of technologies in fields relevant to the company or organization in question,ADL successfully deploys a“technology trends radar”(see Figure 11).In essence,it brings strategic and tactical clarity on how and when to leverage technologies depending on maturity level and expected v

184、alue creation.Within each field,technologies are classified and prioritized accordingly from“adopt”through“trial”and“assess”to“hold.”Depending on purpose and need,the scope of the technologies included on the radar varies:-Multi-industry broad outlook covering multiple focus industries to discover t

185、echnology trends across industry borders.-Industry-tailored focusing on the evolving technology trends impacting one industry.-Single-field focusing on a single technology field(e.g.,AI and its use cases).Figure 10.High-level approach to leverage technology trends Source:Arthur D.LittleSource:Arthur

186、 D.LittleFigure 10.High-level approach to leverage technology trendsContinuous&systematiciteration&action2 0REPORT:TIME TO RENEW YOUR PILOTS LICENSE?ARTHUR D.LITTLEThe radar can be used to track trends over time,conduct deep dives in specific fields or trends,as well as assessing/benchmarking your c

187、ompanys presence.Similar approaches can be used at a national level through technology foresight15 to identify areas of technology that can form the basis of a national innovation strategy.15 Khoury,Raymond,et al.“Technology Foresight:Anticipating Future Impact.”Arthur D.Little Viewpoint,2022.Assess

188、ing and classifying the technologies into adopt,trial,assess,and hold,in each technology field,enables business leaders to:-Understand the inflection points of each technology field and their implication for business and society(e.g.creating new business models that transcend industries,solving soci

189、al problems).Figure 11.Technology trends radarSource:Arthur D.LittleFigure 12.Technology trends radar exampleSource:The Trend Tech Radar 2021 Munich Re and ERGO,in partnership with Arthur D.Little Source:The Trend Tech Radar 2021 Munich Re and ERGO,in partnership with Arthur D.Little Figure 12.Techn

190、ology trends radarHaptic technologies0Personalized medicine Enhanced realityDeepfake defense Population healthVirtual assistants Biometric recognition Behavioral analyticsRobotic healthDigital identity Human enhancement Robotic revolutionData fabricFoodtechDigital twinSmart textilesAutonomous things

191、 Precision farming Open dataOpen APISmart spacesIndustrial loTReal-time paymentDigital health services Artificial general intelligence Al coding Al chipsAl-enabled drug discovery&development Synthetic dataReinforcement learning Explainable ML GPT-3Smart cybersecurity Knowledge graphs AutoMLMachine-d

192、rivendecisions Conversational user interfaces Natural languageprocessingComputer vision 6GVaccine disruptionQuantum computingHydrogen economy Micronuclear power plantsVolumetric display In-space economyNeuromorphic hardware Programmable materials Brain-computer interface Low code/no codeAdvanced bat

193、teries Microsatellites Cloud edgeDistributed ledger 3D printing 5GAl diagnostics&therapeuticsSource:Arthur D.LittleFigure 11.ADL Technology trends radarTrend evolutionAdoptAdoptbroadlyTrialInitiative in affected unitsAssessEvaluationneededHoldWatch listHoldAssessTrialAdopt2 1-Identify non-technologi

194、cal key issues for each field(e.g.,changing consumer behavior).-Devise a plan for how to access people and organizations that have a deep understanding and ownership of the key technologies in each field(e.g.,internally,externally).-Design the most appropriate methods to acquire key technologies(e.g

195、.,make,buy,partner).The insurance groups Munich Re and ERGO released the Tech Trend Radar 2021 supported by ADL(see Figure 12),including future technology trends,use cases,and their corresponding(technology-aligned and enabled)insurance solutions offerings.Developing a technology trends radar will h

196、elp organizations identify new growth opportunities and“no-regrets moves,”16 preventing organizations from making fundamental mistakes,such as jumping on technology bandwagons where they are unlikely to derive value.Indeed,through its rigorous analysis,a technology trends radar can highlight not onl

197、y where to focus but also where not to invest,and identify which areas can be addressed through technology adoption rather than technology leadership.Ultimately,the technology radar is a tool to help make decisions on where to place the next business“bets.”However,although it is a powerful framework

198、,the technology trends radar as described in this Report needs to be understood in the right context.The technology deep dives behind the technology radar dots should look beyond the science maturity,pace of innovation,IP landscape,and key players to give the radar meaning and value.16“No-regret mov

199、es”are defined as strategic decisions that have positive payoffs in any future scenarios.These may be building capability or capacity;investing in technology platforms that are key enablers;or technologies,features,or services that will give the organization the“right to play”in future markets.See:C

200、ourtney,Hugh,et al,“Strategy Under Uncertainty.”Harvard Business Review,NovemberDecember 1997.Working with marketing and commercial teams to provide the external business context and understanding the organizations internal capabilities and their existing relationships and partnerships in the innova

201、tion ecosystem will help the company determine the strategic route that creates the best value.This may mean exploring new business models,developing new capabilities,or finding new companies to partner with to combine attributes needed to develop radically new solutions.Indeed,the findings from a t

202、echnology trends radar may necessitate a reevaluation of our understanding of the competitive landscape and how to win.In an era of technology acceleration and convergence,developing partnerships with“frenemies”to combine core technologies,capabilities,and reach to fully exploit new technologies or

203、new markets faster is becoming increasingly common.Thus,successful deployment ultimately hinges on the individual organizations strategy,capabilities,resources,processes,and organization.Upstream,a technology and innovation strategy needs to be developed and aligned with the business strategy.Downst

204、ream,capabilities,resources,processes,and organizational models need to be sharpened to leverage the results from the technology trends radar and ensure the commensurate value creation.2 2REPORT:TIME TO RENEW YOUR PILOTS LICENSE?ARTHUR D.LITTLE2 3In the current challenging business environment,where

205、 the promise of growth through development and adoption of disruptive and exponential technologies is affected by geopolitical and macroeconomic trends,a clear and concise“helicopter view”is critical to inform strategic corporate decision-making.A technology radar becomes an indispensable piloting i

206、nstrument to navigate technological complexity and geopolitical and macroeconomic trends.To stay ahead of technology trends that will shape the future success of the company,business leaders need not only activate their radar,but also build capabilities to correctly interpret incoming echoes and suc

207、cessfully use the information for navigation.A CLEAR AND CONCISE“HELICOPTER VIEW”IS CRITICAL TO INFORM STRATEGIC CORPORATE DECISION-MAKING17 Davies,Colin,et al.“Your Most Valuable Asset:Insight into Resource&Competence Management.”Arthur D.Little Viewpoint,June 2015.From knowledge and experience acr

208、oss multiple industries,ADL has identified three critical success factors:1.Build and maintain critical competencies-Boards and CEOs should commit to invest in technology competence building the foundation for identifying which technologies to invest in and which to not invest in.-Early planning in

209、developing a technology competence roadmap can save a lot of regrets later.Too many companies only carry out succession planning to maintain current competencies,but do not build capabilities for the future to guide recruitment,acquisition,and training.Most importantly,new capability champions can t

210、hen be identified to lead the creation and exploitation of these new capabilities.17-To ensure strategical and tactical relevance,technology competencies must be renewed on a recurring basis.CONCLUSION24REPORT:TIME TO RENEW YOUR PILOTS LICENSE?ARTHUR D.LITTLE2.Track strategic initiatives and keep le

211、arning -A high-performing board and CEO should not only be able to deploy the radar,but also understand the flight dynamics and where the engines are taking the plane to regularly adjust the flight plan.-Stop relying on someone elses radar to guide you through the standard approach.Build your own on

212、-board radar to create a different perspective.Some companies that perform best in dynamic environments where technology is changing rapidly focus not on product success(a lagging indicator)but on“What have we learned?”and“How does that help us improve?”Without dedicated experimentation to get data

213、and insights that none of your competitors have,you have only the commonly available view of the industry and cannot create an alternative flight plan.-There is a big difference between investing in new products and service development and investing in new capabilities.Most companies lack a good und

214、erstanding of their own technical capabilities and often underestimate the capabilities of competitors or the ecosystem they could be leveraging.These can be a source of strategic partnership initiatives.-The board needs systems to create transparency and a“single source of truth”in technology inves

215、tments and capabilities,so it can track and challenge technology capability-building initiatives to ensure these align with the companys overall strategy.18“Digital Transformation Pulse:Connected Industry.”Arthur D.Little,Telia,and Ericsson,2022.19 Based on findings from the Arthur D.Little Global I

216、nnovation Excellence Benchmark v9.0,2023.3.Devote time to ensure long-term success-As these questions are complex,the focus must center on value-driving technology,debating alternative strategies and evaluating the allocation of resources.-High-performing boards and CEOs use a diverse range of funct

217、ional expertise to evaluate technology options and devote twice as much time on strategically important issues,like technology management,as do low performers.18 This means both having meaningful data and investing leadership time in regular meetings to manage this.19A TECHNOLOGY RADAR BECOMES AN IN

218、DISPENSABLE PILOTING INSTRUMENT TO NAVIGATE TECHNOLOGICAL COMPLEXITY AND GEOPOLITICAL AND MACROECONOMIC TRENDS2 5NOTES2 6REPORT:TIME TO RENEW YOUR PILOTS LICENSE?ARTHUR D.LITTLEARTHUR D.LITTLE2 72 7Arthur D.Little has been at the forefront of innovation since 1886.We are an acknowledged thought lead

219、er in linking strategy,innovation and transformation in technology-intensive and converging industries.We navigate our clients through changing business ecosystems to uncover new growth opportunities.We enable our clients to build innovation capabilities and transform their organizations.Our consult

220、ants have strong practical industry experience combined with excellent knowledge of key trends and dynamics.ADL is present in the most important business centers around the world.We are proud to serve most of the Fortune 1000 companies,in addition to other leading firms and public sector organizations.For further information,please visit .Copyright Arthur D.Little 2023.All rights reserved.