1、U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCENATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION2022NOAAScience Report NOAA Technical Memorandum NOAA Science Council-0052022 NOAA Science ReportJoe Fillingham,Anita Harrington,Megan Deehan,Isha Renta,Elizabeth Gugliotti,Gary Matlock,Eric Bayler,Sarah Davis,Judy Ghirardelli,

2、Monica Grasso,Michelle Harmon,Michael Liddel,Anthony Marshak,Felipe Arzayus,Laura Newcomb,Jeffrey Wielgus,Kristen Schepel,John Schattel,Melissa YenchoNOAA Silver Spring,MarylandMarch 2023noaaNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATIONNOAA Science Council2022 NOAA Science Report https:/doi.org/10

3、.25923vsa1-gg59 Joe Fillingham,Anita Harrington,Megan Deehan,Isha Renta,Elizabeth Gugliotti,Gary Matlock,Eric Bayler,Sarah Davis,Judy Ghirardelli,Monica Grasso,Michelle Harmon,Michael Liddel,Anthony Marshak,Felipe Arzayus,Laura Newcomb,Jeffrey Wielgus,Kristen Schepel,John Schattel,Melissa YenchoNOAA

4、 Silver Spring,MarylandMarch 2023UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCEGina Raimondo SecretaryNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATIONRichard W.Spinrad,Ph.D.Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and AtmosphereNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Science CouncilSarah Kapnick,Ph.D.NOA

5、A Science Council ChairSteve Thur,Ph.D.NOAA Science Council Vice ChairNOTICEThis document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government.The views and opinions of the authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Go

6、vernment or any agency or Contractor thereof.Neither the United States Government,nor Contractor,nor any of their employees,make any warranty,express or implied,or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy,completeness,or usefulness of any information,product,or process disclose

7、d,or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights.Mention of a commercial company or product does not constitute an endorsement by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.Use of information from this publication concerning proprietary products or the tests of such pr

8、oducts for publicity or advertising purposes is not authorized.AcknowledgementsLayoutMegan DeehanDiversity and InclusionOffice of Inclusion and Civil RightsScience&plain language reviewsMegan Deehan,Anita Harrington,Joe Fillingham,Isha Renta,Elizabeth Gugliotti,Maria Torres,Susan Cobb,Liz Perotti,Ni

9、cole Rice,Courtney Byrd,Clara Deck,Kristina Kiest,Adi Hanein,Barb Deluisi,Laura Chaibongsai,Rayne Sabatello,Emily Crum,Sierra Sarkis,Heather McCullough,Caitlin Valentine,Jennie Lyons,Marissa Anderson,Symone Barkley,Alejandra Enriquez,Troy Kitch,Julia Ortiz,Vickie Bowman,Linda Taylor,Christopher Vacc

10、aro,Susan Buchanan,Maureen OLeary,Jasmine Blackwell,Keli Pirtle,Rosemary Booth,Grace Bottitta-Williamson,Kate Naughten,Rebecca Ferro,Ryann Agbasi,Renata Lana,John Bateman,John Leslie,Marjorie Mooney-Seus,Forbes Darby,Sarah Mesnick,Teri Frady,Keeley Belva,Monica Grasso,Joseph Conran,Jeffrey Wielgus,R

11、ichard Methot,Christine Stawitz,Ole Shelton,Jameal Samhouri,Leah Crowe,David Demer,Laurie Weitkamp,Darren Wright,Jessica Schauer,Kimberly McMahon,David Dewitt,Douglas Hilderbrand,Ivanka Stajner,Fanglin Yang,Neal Dipasquale,Avichal Mehra,Jocelyn Burston,Dave Turner,Bryan Mrocska,Daniel Barrie,Monika

12、Kopacz,Gina Eosco,Yong Wei,Mimi Hughes,Rob Cifelli,Gregory Foltz,Chidong Zhang,Hallee Meltzer,Joanne Flanders,Tane Casserley,David Wiley,Edward Myers,Andria Bilich,Katie Kirk,Hannah Brown,Bryan Costa,Matthew Poti,Randy Clark,Tim Battista,Charles Menza,Peter Etnoyer,Terry McTigue,Rance Hardison,Maggi

13、e Broadwater,Marc Suddleson,John Knaff,Jeff Key,Paul Chang,Huan Meng,Yunyue Yu,Mark Kulie,Sean Helfrich,Christopher Jackson,Rob Redmon,Shobha Kondragunta,Monica AllenPhoto disclaimerSome images appearing in this report depict activities during and after CDC COVID-19 mask guidelines and travel restri

14、ctions were put in place.Cover PhotosAn image of Hurricane Ian(top),NOAA Ship Reuben Lasker(middle),a shark swimming by the USS Monitor shipwreck during a survey expedition(bottom).Credit:NOAA/NOAA Fisheries/GFOEForewordIt is my honor and privilege to introduce NOAAs seventh annual Science Report.NO

15、AA is the Nations premier ocean,weather,atmospheric and climate agency.We have a deep commitment to science,service and stewardship.The annual NOAA Science Report began when our current Administrator,Dr.Richard Spinrad,was formerly serving as the NOAA Chief Scientist and recognized the value in shar

16、ing NOAAs research accomplishments of the past year.This report not only documents the breadth and high caliber of our research,but also emphasizes the wide range of impacts that our scientific advancements have on the lives of the American people and the World.With climate change altering the statu

17、s quo,there is a need for new and innovative science,technology,communication,and stewardship approaches.NOAA is responding to this need by advancing fundamental science,providing support for decision making,developing solutions for vulnerable communities and ecosystems,and ensuring our work represe

18、nts the needs of the Nation.The scientific highlights within the report demonstrate NOAAs progress and commitment to building a Climate Ready Nation that is resilient and well equipped to deal with future climate change,integrating equity into NOAAs services and operations,and supporting the sustain

19、able growth of the Blue Economy.We could not continue to produce such valuable work for the American people without our international,academic,industry,interagency,state and local government,and non-governmental organization partners.These coalitions are critical for developing innovative and impact

20、ful science,and unlocking the full value of our work through effectively utilizing and leveraging our respective capabilities.As we look to the future,NOAA will need to continue to be at the cutting edge of understanding the dynamic Earth system and predicting and projecting future changes and impac

21、ts.NOAA science will need to reduce uncertainty and improve the communication around what is to come to not only inform the management of risks across timescales,but support new innovative solutions-oriented commerce.I have no doubt that we will be able to meet these growing demands because our work

22、force is creative,dedicated to the mission,and contagiously enthusiastic about their work.This report is both a showcase of our science advancements and a testament to the commitment of NOAAs workforce.Thank you to all who have contributed to NOAA scientific advancements,often only completed after y

23、ears of dedication.And thank you to the writing team,who have built this document to identify and celebrate NOAA science.Thank you.Sarah Kapnick,Ph.D.NOAA Chief ScientistContentsForeword 5Introduction 7Guiding Principles 11NOAAs Priority Objectives 14Strategic R&D Priorities 14Diversity,Equity,Inclu

24、sion,and Accessibility 16Understanding the Value of NOAA R&D 22Science Highlights 261.A Robust and Effective Research and Development Enterprise 281.A Innovation in Technology,Observations and Data 281.B New Tools Supporting Environmental Prediction 321.C Transitioning R&D 342.Reducing Societal Impa

25、cts from Hazardous Weather 352.A Observations 372.B Models and Forecasts 412.C Communications and Engagement 433.Building A Climate Ready Nation 443.A Monitoring Climate Change 453.B Predicting Future Climate 493.C Environmental Impact and Human Response 514.Sustainability of Coastal and Ocean Resou

26、rces 524.A Observations 534.B Models and Tools Supporting Fisheries Management 574.C Forecasts and Projections 594.D Ecosystem Assessment and Characterization 62Resources and Activities that Support R&D 64Investing in NOAA R&D 64Scientific Infrastructure 65Laboratory and Program Science Reviews 65Sc

27、ientific Awards and Achievements 66Bibliometrics 707I N T R O D U CT I O N NOAAs Mission:Science,Service,and StewardshipTo understand and predict changes in climate,weather,oceans,and coasts;To share that knowledge and information with others;andTo conserve and manage coastal and marine ecosystems a

28、nd resources.IntroductionEnriching Life Through ScienceExtending from the surface of the sun to the depths of the oceans,NOAAs mission depends on a strong foundation of research and development(R&D)for observing and understanding the complex environmental systems of our planet.This understanding pro

29、vides the information and knowledge needed to inform decision-making,protect lives and property,support livelihoods,and sustain critical ecosystems.NOAA is a Science Agency To fulfill its mission of science,service,and stewardship,NOAAs science activities are driven by Guiding Principles and shaped

30、through the development of Strategic Priorities.Resources supporting R&D enable NOAA to carry out its objective of transitioning R&D into operations,applications,commercialization,and other uses.Following this path,NOAA produces and publishes credible science that is cited in peer-reviewed publicati

31、ons,receives internal and external awards,and is consistently highly recognized during laboratory and program reviews by expert panels external to NOAA.820 2 2 N OA A S C I EN C E R EP O R TAll Six NOAA Line Offices Provide Unique Contributions to NOAA R&D The National Marine Fisheries Service(NOAA

32、Fisheries)is responsible for the stewardship of the nations living marine resources and their habitats.NOAA Fisheries provides vital services for the nation to support productive and sustainable fisheries,safe sources of seafood,the recovery and conservation of protected resources,and healthy ecosys

33、temsall backed by sound science and an ecosystem-based approach to management.Using the Magnuson-Stevens Act as the guide,NOAA Fisheries works in partnership with Regional Fishery Management Councils to assess and predict the status of fish stocks,set catch limits,ensure compliance with fisheries re

34、gulations,and reduce bycatch.The National Ocean Service(NOAA NOS)is the nations premier science agency for oceans and coasts.NOAA NOS delivers the applied science,modeling,tools and services needed to understand,predict,and respond to the challenges we face along Americas 95,000 miles of shoreline a

35、nd 3.5 million square nautical miles of coastal,Great Lakes,and deep-ocean waters.Additionally,NOAA NOS oversees the definition,maintenance,and access to the National Spatial Reference System for all federal geospatial activities.These efforts enable NOAA NOS to better manage the sea/shore boundary

36、for coastal resilience and planning.9I N T R O D U CT I O NThe National Environmental Satellite,Data,and Information Service(NOAA NESDIS)provides timely access to global environmental data from satellites and other sources to promote,protect,and enhance the Nations economy,security,environment,and q

37、uality of life.NOAA NESDIS supports science through the Center for Satellite Applications and Research,the National Centers for Environmental Information,and the Office of Satellite and Product Operations.Through these programs,NOAA NESDIS researches,formulates,develops,validates,maintains,verifies,

38、and sustains environmental measurements from satellites,as well as associated applications of satellite environmental observations,and maintains the quality of measurements from NOAAs operational satellites and domestic and international partners,directly enabling and supporting NOAAs environmental

39、analysis and prediction capabilities.NOAA NESDIS hosts and provides public access to one of Earths most comprehensive archives for atmospheric,oceanic,and geophysical data,with research and development focusing on preserving,stewarding,and providing the best possible long-term environmental data rec

40、ords;thereby,maximizing the datas utility and enabling the Nations environmental science efforts.The Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research(NOAA Research)provides the research foundation for understanding the complex earth systems that support our planet.NOAA Researchs role is to provide unbiase

41、d science to better manage the environment nationally and globally.The science and technology that NOAA Research produces and transfers to partners(in NOAAs service lines and beyond)is instrumental to preventing the loss of human life,managing natural resources,and maintaining a strong economy.NOAA

42、Research has partnerships and platforms around the world and offices located across the country,including ten laboratories and seven program offices that support research and provide information used from the international to the local level.1020 2 2 N OA A S C I EN C E R EP O R TThe National Weathe

43、r Service(NOAA NWS)provides weather,water,and climate data,forecasts,warnings,and impact-based decision support services(IDSS)for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.NOAA NWS data and products form a national information database and infrastructure which c

44、an be used by other governmental agencies,the private sector,the public,and the global community.NOAA NWS sustains and improves its observing system infrastructure with new technologies while leveraging more observations through innovative public and private partnerships;additionally,next generation

45、 weather and Earth system models are developed using a community-based approach,along with advances in high-performance computing.NOAA NWS also improves its tools,systems,and policies for virtualization,analytics,data management,and dissemination to maximize the societal benefits of state-of-the art

46、 science,data sources,and technologies.Collaboration with partners across NOAA,other federal agencies,and the weather enterprise are critical to enable effective research to operations and operations to research activities for IDSS.The Office of Marine and Aviation Operations(OMAO)operates a wide va

47、riety of specialized aircraft and ships to complete NOAAs environmental and scientific missions.OMAO has established an Uncrewed Systems Operations Center to support the rapidly expanding use of these systems across the agency.OMAO is also responsible for the administration and implementation of the

48、 Aviation Safety Program,Small Boat Program and NOAA Diving Program to ensure safe and efficient operations in NOAA-sponsored aviation,small boat and underwater activities.11I N T R O D U CT I O NGUIDING PRINCIPLESSTRATEGIC PRIORITIESDIVERSITY,EQUITY,INCLUSION,AND ACCESSIBILITYVALUE OF NOAAS R&DGuid

49、ing PrinciplesSocietal needs,mandates,and policies shape NOAAs R&D enterprise and ensure high-quality outputs.Strategic PrioritiesStrategic R&D planning drives a balanced,equitable R&D portfolio and a diverse R&D workforce.Diversity,Equity,Inclusion,and Accessibility(DEIA)Integration of DEIA into NO

50、AAs core operations involves strengthening the foundation for a diverse and inclusive workforce,training and retaining the next generation of scientists,and leveraging the wealth of experiences and perspectives of NOAAs employees to support R&D,achieve mission goals,and business objectives.Value of

51、NOAAs R&DThe assessment of societal impacts and economic valuation of NOAAs R&D help us to better understand the“return on investment”of NOAAs R&D products,knowledge and application,and how it contributes to improving the lives of the American people.Guiding PrinciplesHow Does NOAA Invest in Researc

52、h?NOAAs investment in R&D expands capabilities and improves the quality of NOAAs products and services for the Nation.Dynamic engagement between NOAA and its stakeholders drive the development of products,services,and new research initiatives that incorporate the needs of the people.NOAA also develo

53、ps research initiatives to address legislative mandates and other requirements.By integrating internal R&D with partner efforts(including cooperative institutes,universities,other government agencies,and the private sector),NOAA can better transform concepts into the data,tools,and products and serv

54、ices that meet the needs of stakeholders.NOAA balances a broad research portfolio to further the NOAA mission and serve the Nation.NOAAs R&D addresses the needs of the user community while advancing fundamental scientific understanding.1 220 2 2 N OA A S C I EN C E R EP O R TIn the context of the cl

55、assical treatment for characterizing research efforts Stokes,1997,NOAA significantly invests in both the“Pasteur-User Inspired”and the“Edison-Applied Research”quadrants(Figure 1),while including critical investments aimed at advancing fundamental understanding.NOAA thoughtfully invests across the ri

56、sk-reward spectrum,pursuing a range of projects,from low-risk projects that result in incremental gains to high-risk projects with high potential gains but less certainty of success.This balanced approach sets NOAA on the cutting edge of R&D while still ensuring that user needs and expectations are

57、met.NOAA maintains both internal and external research investments.Some NOAA programs invest the majority of their R&D funding internally at laboratories and science centers with federal employees and other NOAA programs invest the majority of their funding with external R&D partners such as univers

58、ities,industry,and other research institutions.In many cases,NOAA programs distribute their R&D investments across both internal and external efforts.NOAA partnerships,vital to the agencys R&D success,enable NOAA to leverage the expertise,results,equipment,and facilities of leading universities,fede

59、ral agencies,private companies,non-governmental organizations,and other science innovators.Key mechanisms for partnerships include cooperative institute and cooperative science center agreements with universities,the network of university-based Sea Grant programs,external grant programs,contracts,an

60、d Cooperative R&D Agreements with the private sector.Figure 1.Donald Stokes proposed the above chart in his 1997 book Pasteurs Quadrant:Basic Science and Technological Innovation.This chart portrays that,while some research largely focuses on fundamental understanding(Bohrs quadrant upper left)or ap

61、plication(Edisons quadrant,lower right),it is possible for research to be highly relevant for both fundamental understanding and real-life applications(Pasteurs quadrant,upper right).The majority of NOAA research strives for this dual relevance as reflected in Pasteurs quadrant.What Principles Guide

62、 NOAA Research?NOAA strives to follow eight principles from NOAA Administrative Order(NAO)216-115B:Research and Development in NOAA NOAA,2022 when formulating,directing,and evaluating all agency research:Mission alignment Transition readiness(NAO 216-105B,NOAA,2022)Research balance Optimized partner

63、ships Sustained facilities and infrastructure Workforce excellence Scientific integrity AccountabilityThese principles,grounded in communication within the agency and between our partners,work together to establish and maintain NOAAs high-quality research,development,services,and products.1 3I N T R

64、 O D U CT I O NNOAA leadership and staff are shown in NOAAs Postcard From the Field at the 27th United Nations Climate Change Conference(COP27)in Egypt in November 2022.Throughout COP,NOAA highlighted how they are collecting and using climate data to equitably strengthen community resilience,buildin

65、g a Climate Ready Nation,incorporating Indigenous and local knowledge into climate adaptation and mitigation plans,and supporting universal access to near-real-time ocean data to underpin climate action,among many other initiatives.Credit:NOAAScientific Integrity NOAAs Scientific Integrity Policy(NA

66、O 202-735D-2 NOAA,2021),exists to“promote a continuing culture of scientific excellence and integrity,and to establish a policy that ensures the integrity of the agencys scientific activities used to inform management and policy decisions.”In addition,the intent of the policy is to strengthen univer

67、sal confidence from scientists to decision-makers to the general public in the quality,validity,and reliability of NOAA science.It also denotes the agencys commitment to a culture of support for NOAAs principal science asset,our employees.NOAAs Scientific Integrity Policy,along with its accompanying

68、 Procedural Handbook,establishes a Code of Scientific Conduct and a Code of Ethics for Science Supervision and Management,setting the responsibilities for scientists,their managers,and those who use scientific results to set policy.The Scientific Integrity Office processes allegations of scientific

69、misconduct with respect to these codes.NOAA produces an annual scientific and research misconduct report that summarizes allegations that are being investigated and those that have been closed.In order to ensure that everyone in NOAA understands the principles of Scientific Integrity and how to appl

70、y them,NOAA requires covered individuals to take scientific integrity training,which is provided in an online module.Through NOAAs comprehensive scientific integrity policy,and resulting culture of excellence,NOAA scientists continue to conduct exemplary research and development.For further informat

71、ion about scientific integrity in NOAA,the Scientific Integrity Commons website contains relevant resources and documents.1420 2 2 N OA A S C I EN C E R EP O R TNOAAs Priority ObjectivesThe NOAA Fiscal Year 2022-2026 Strategic Plan,Building a Climate Ready Nation,identifies NOAAs three overarching p

72、riorities objectives,strategies,and outcomes through 2026 within three goal areas:1.Building a Climate Ready Nation by establishing NOAA as the primary federal authoritative provider of climate information and services in the whole-of-government response to tackling the climate crisis;2.Integrating

73、equity into our core operations;and3.Promoting economic development while maintaining environmental stewardship with a focus on advancing the New Blue Economy.Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo visited NOAA headquarters in Silver Spring,MD.She met with NOAA leaders,received briefings,and spoke with

74、 NOAA employees.Photo credit:David L.Hall,NOAAStrategic R&D PrioritiesThe NOAA Research and Development Vision Areas:2020-2026,aligned with the NOAA Strategic Plan,identifies NOAAs R&D priorities.The Vision provides direction on NOAAs R&D and enables proactive actions to align NOAAs resources,budget

75、,and functional activities to achieve stated goals.Research and development are cornerstones of NOAAs wide-ranging scientific assessments,forecasting capabilities,advancement of environmental sensors and technologies,and engagement with stakeholders and international organizations.These vision areas

76、 include:1.Reducing societal impacts from hazardous weather and other environmental phenomena2.Sustainable use and stewardship of ocean and coastal resources3.A robust and effective research,development,and transition enterpriseIn carrying out the objectives in the Vision Areas and the NOAA Strategi

77、c Plan,NOAA focuses transformative advancements in the quality and timeliness of NOAAs products and services in the following areas:1.Harnessing omics approaches,from DNA sequencing to small molecule analysis;2.Maximizing value of uncrewed systems for science-based mission support;3.Maximizing the v

78、alue of NOAA data;4.Applying the power of the crowd through citizen science;5.Utilizing artificial intelligence(AI)analytics for next-generation Earth science;and6.Adopting and using information technology cloud services.1 5I N T R O D U CT I O NNOAA Center for AI and AI project images around NOAA.I

79、mage credit:NOAATHE FUTURE OF AI USES AT NOAANOAA and the international earth science community have been challenged to establish a community-driven definition of AI-ready open environmental data to unlock the full potential of AI application development.The communitys working definition for AI-read

80、y data is open environmental data that is well documented,with proper quality information,and is findable,accessible,interoperable,and reusable for diverse AI applications.Expanding the adoption and uses of AI and machine learning involves the need for case-based metrics,measures of discoverability,

81、and assessment tools to facilitate quick and reliable user evaluation of data applicability for each case.In conjunction with this preliminary standard,NOAAs Center for AI is spearheading a second co-productive training initiative that develops curation tools to capture community-generated,interacti

82、ve learning materials.These tools and materials promote environmental data science,expand AI and machine learning knowledge at all levels of understanding,and improve access to NOAA data and products.NOAAs Center for AI is coalescing these tools into Learning Journeys,which are short instructional m

83、odules that match any users or interested learners needs and skill levels.By standardizing AI-readiness and providing training tools,NOAA is working to guide trustworthy,responsible,and ethical AI and machine learning applications to support social environmental justice and incorporate broad stakeho

84、lder input.NOAAs Center for AI community of practice has grown to 600+members,providing an opportunity for collaboration among diverse groups including NOAA,other governmental agencies,industry,and non-governmental agencies.References:NOAA(2016a),NOAA Administrative Order 216-115A-Research and Devel

85、opment in NOAA,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Washington,D.C.NOAA(2016b),NOAA Administrative Order 216-105B-Policy on Research and Development Transitions,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Washington,D.C.NOAA(2018),NOAA by the Numbers,p.3,National Oceanic and Atmospher

86、ic Administration,Washington,D.C.NOAA(2021),NOAA Administrative Order 202-735D-2 -Scientific Integrity,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Washington,D.C.Stokes,D.E.(1997),Pasteurs quadrant:Basic science and technological innovation,Brookings Institution Press.1620 2 2 N OA A S C I EN C

87、E R EP O R TDiversity,Equity,Inclusion,and AccessibilityVision and PlanNOAAs overall vision for Diversity,Equity,Inclusion,and Accessibility(DEIA)is an environment in which NOAA leverages DEIA to achieve mission goals and business objectives while also maximizing the potential of individuals within

88、the organization.NOAAs developing DEIA Strategic Plan describes how NOAA envisions,defines,assesses,values,and commits to diversity,equity,inclusion,and accessibility.A comprehensive plan and implementation,with actions and metrics,will assist NOAA in collaboratively achieving the goals.Advancing DE

89、IA NOAA recognizes that diversity is about more than race and gender and strives to foster an inclusive culture for everyone by advancing our DEIA initiatives,programs,and groups hosted by the Office of Inclusion and Civil Rights(OICR).NOAAs OICR currently leads a growing number of Employee Resource

90、 and Affinity Groups to connect employees for support,collaboration,and action by promoting diversity,equity,inclusion,and accessibility-resulting in a more productive,professional environment that champions mission achievement.In 2022,OICR hosted ten Special Emphasis Program Observances events,with

91、 an average of over 270 attendees at each event.NOAA also served as a sponsor for three national DEIA-related conferences in Fiscal Year(FY)2022:The Federal Asian Pacific American Council Conference;Federally Employed Women Science,Technology,Engineering,and Mathematics Day;and the Federally Employe

92、d Women National Training Programs Conference.Additionally,NOAA hosted the attendance of several employees at the Global ERG Summit for Employee Resource Groups(ERGs),Business Resource Groups,Diversity Councils,and other Affinity Groups,where the Generations with Genius,the Accommodating Differently

93、 Abled People Team,and Women of NOAA ERGs all received a Diversity Impact Award for their work in advancing DEIA in NOAA.Strengthening the Foundation The Majority staff of the Committee on Science,Space,and Technology analyzed workforce data for seven science agencies within the Committees jurisdict

94、ion:National Science Foundation,National Aeronautics and Space Administration,Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate,National Institute of Standards and Technology,NOAA,Department of Energy,and Environmental Protection Agency(Report).The Majority staff reported on the fol

95、lowing statistics:NOAAs workforce declined by 8.6%from FY 2009-2020;And the NOAA Science,Technology,Engineering,and Mathematics,or STEM,workforce declined by 1.6%during this time At the end of FY 2020 NOAA employed roughly 8.5 male engineers for every 1 female engineer While STEM employment among mi

96、nority groups at NOAA increased by 13.6%from FY 2016-2020,only 0.4%were Black/African 17I N T R O D U CT I O NAmerican NOAAs STEM workforce experienced large declines in several critical scientific occupations,including fish biologists(8.1%decline),oceanographers(9.0%decline),and wildlife biologists

97、(30.4%decline)As a result of this report,the NOAA Science Council identified best practices for hiring and retaining underrepresented groups and addressed other workforce challenges.To begin addressing these challenges,the NOAA Science Council organized a seminar series aimed at educating hiring man

98、agers and NOAA staff on these best practices.The seminar series took place over the Spring and Summer in 2022 and focused on accessing the NOAA STEM talent pool,advancement,retention,allyship,belonging,and equity.These recorded seminars featured panelists across each line office and led to insightfu

99、l and engaging conversations with viewers.OICR developed NAO 215-4 to advance NOAAs goal of a fully inclusive workplace by clarifying roles and setting expectations for respecting gender identity that applies to all employees,contractors,fellows,interns,and grantees.The Office of Human Capital Servi

100、ces drafted a NOAA-specific operational plan for recruiting,hiring and retaining persons with disabilities and developed a reasonable accommodation webinar for employees on the Commerce Learning Center.The NOAA employees who took this training increased from 86 individuals in 2020 to 275 in 2021(219

101、%attendance increase).NOAA has also made advancements in having a workforce that represents individuals with tar-geted disabilities.In 2021 representation was at 2.65%,0.65%above the federal goal established by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commis-sion.In FY21,the representation of Hispanics,Whit

102、e Females,African Americans,American Indian or Alaska Natives Females and two or more races in NOAAs workforce were below the civilian labor force.NOAA recognizes that there is still ample work to be done to address deficiencies in DEIA within the agency and going forward in 2023,will continue to ma

103、ke efforts and support initiatives to progress and improve diversity and inclusion in the work environment.To better integrate diversity,equity,and inclusion into NOAAs hiring process,the NOAA Science Council,The Office of Education,and the NOAA Central Library created a series of webinars in March,

104、May,and July 2022.The seminar topics included accessing the NOAA STEM talent pool,advancement,retention,allyship,belonging,and equity.Recordings of these seminars can be found on the NOAA Central Librarys YouTube Channel.Credit:NOAA1 820 2 2 N OA A S C I EN C E R EP O R TDEIA and the Development of

105、the Next Generation The NOAA Office of Education(OEd)supports education from pre-kindergarten through doctoral level students and collaborates with universities to prepare exceptional talent,in NOAA-mission fields,including those from diverse backgrounds.OEd-supported programs play an essential role

106、 in contributing to NOAAs DEIA goals.The Educational Partnership Program with Minority-Serving Institutions supports the education,training,professional development,and graduation of post-secondary students at NOAA-supported minority-serving institutions,where most of the student population are trad

107、itionally underrepresented and historically excluded communities.NOAA funding also assists research capacity development in STEM,social science,and policy fields at Minority Serving Institutions that are aligned with NOAA mission fields.The 2022 class of EPP/MSI scholars during their scholarship ori

108、entation.From left to right,Christian Schnell,Courtney White,Martin Gonzalez,Alison Novara,Ingrid Martinson,Kiah Matthews,Michaela Wong,Hailey Poole,Richarde Graham II,and Alexandria Tennant.Photo credit:Elvis Efamba/Office of EducationNOAAs DEIA Commitment NOAA commits to providing our workforce an

109、d job applicants with a full and fair opportunity for employment,career advancement,and access to resources and programs and recognizes that diversity is about more than race and gender,and we strive to foster an inclusive culture for everyone.NOAA values the unique differences and shared values of

110、each member of the NOAA team.NOAA is committed to incorporating the principles of DEIA as a core value.Empowering our workforce through DEIA initiatives allows the capability to understand and respond effectively to the workforces needs and mission.DEIA is a Core Value of NOAA R&DIt is imperative th

111、at NOAAs R&D portfolio prioritizes DEIA to successfully address the needs of the public.Through working to build a diverse workforce and network of partners,incorporating traditional ecological knowledge,and increasing the accessibility of NOAA research to all,NOAA is not only strengthened as an age

112、ncy,but is better positioned to meet our R&D mission.The following impactful R&D projects,critical to achieving NOAAs mission,highlight DEIA as a core NOAA value.1 9I N T R O D U CT I O NCollaborative mapping with the Pointe-au-Chien Indian Tribe supports local adaptation planning in coastal Louisia

113、naLouisiana Sea Grants partnership with the Pointe-au-Chien Indian Tribe on a map-based decision support tool is advancing short and long-term resilience planning to the impacts of climate change in coastal Louisiana with the Tribes priorities in mind.Rapid coastal land loss and projected sea level

114、rise are putting unprecedented stress on vulnerable communities in coastal Louisiana.Tribes and other indigenous communities often have a strong connection to a place that helps inspire innovative ideas,promoting greater sustainability of vulnerable ecosystems and the communities that depend on them

115、.Better inclusion of the indigenous communitys knowledge into applied research is necessary to make sure their way of knowing is recognized,understood,and valued in environmental management applications.The research team utilized interviews,focus groups,and participant observation to collect traditi

116、onal ecological knowledge-based information with participating Tribe members.Interactive maps were developed that reflect local perceptions of landscape features within the Tribes ecosystem-dependent livelihood base that contribute most to the communitys physical vulnerability to coastal hazards.The

117、se maps are a resource that the Tribe is using to inform its short and long-term resilience planning and help communicate their priorities to gain support for local restoration and protection projects.Matthew Bethel and Emary Billiot in Billiots boat near the Pointe-au-Chien Village recording tradit

118、ional ecological knowledge-based observations on maps for the collaborative project Photo credit:Corey MillerAerial view of Pointe-au-Chien Indian Tribe project collaborators taking researchers down Bayou Pointe-au-Chien to share traditional ecological knowledge about the place.Photo credit:Louisian

119、a Sea Grant2 020 2 2 N OA A S C I EN C E R EP O R TThe Olympic Coast as a Sentinel:An Integrated Social-Ecological Vulnerability AssessmentIn a major collaborative effort,partners from the Hoh Tribe,Makah Tribe,Quileute Tribe and Quinault Indian Nation who rely on the Olympic Coast resources,co-deve

120、loped goals,priorities,and provided socio-economic information critical to assessing their communitys vulnerability to ocean acidification.The Olympic Coast in the Pacific Northwest of the U.S.is currently experiencing the effects of ocean acidification,which is a change in ocean chemistry when the

121、ocean absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere that increases acidity of seawater and can pose risks to marine life and Native American tribal communities who depend on them.Harvest and use of local marine species are central to the well-being of coastal tribes for their livelihoods,food security,

122、identity and cultural practices.Understanding impacts to marine life and tribal communities will help promote community-driven strategies to decrease societal impacts and build resilience to ocean change,improving the tribes abilities to prepare for and respond to ocean acidification.This NOAA suppo

123、rted collaboration brought together Olympic Coast Treaty Tribes,Washington Sea Grant,scientists and coastal managers to better prepare for ocean change and support tribal community well-being.Learn more about the project and partners at the project website.“Indigenous communities have been ocean obs

124、ervers since time immemorial,”said Dr.Jan Newton,lead Principal Investigator at the University of Washingtons Applied Physics Lab and the Washington Ocean Acidification Center.“They are explicitly place-based and take a holistic and integrative way.It has been a way to gain a partnership with people

125、 with that appreciation and are on the frontlines of ocean acidification and climate change.Their knowledge of how ocean acidification will affect different resources is critical.”Offshore rocks and spray along Washingtons Olympic coast.Photo credit:Lt Jon Andvick,NOAA Corps,and crew and officers of

126、 NOAA Ship Fairweather2 1I N T R O D U CT I O NThis anchor was one of two found among the remains of what is likely the 19th century whaler Industry,discovered and explored in February 2022 in the Gulf of Mexico.Photo credit:NOAA Ocean Exploration,2022 ROV and Mapping ShakedownNOAA Helps Discover 20

127、7-Year-Old Wreck of a Whaling Ship in Gulf of Mexico through TelepresenceOn February 25,2022,NOAA Research,partners from SEARCH Inc.,and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management discovered the remains of what was likely the brig Industry,a 207-year-old whaling ship,at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico.D

128、iscovery of the remains of the 64-foot long,two-masted wooden ship opens a window into a little-known chapter of American history when free descendants of enslaved African and Native Americans served as essential crew for the whaling industry.The discovery of this lost ship provides insights into th

129、e lives of Black and Native American mariners and their communities and how they succeeded as captains and crew members in the nascent American whaling industry and were able to prosper in the ocean economy despite facing discrimination and other injustices both at sea and on land.With guidance prov

130、ided through satellite connection from partner scientists on shore,a team aboard NOAA Ship Okeanos Explorer piloted a remotely operated vehicle(ROV)to explore the seafloor at a suspected location first spotted by an energy company in 2011 and viewed briefly by an autonomous vehicle in 2017.The abili

131、ty to lead the exploration and documentation of the wreck via satellite as“scientists ashore”is a key and important aspect of NOAAs“telepresence”model of deep-ocean exploration.Informed by extensive research on Industry and the video from the ROV,a team of shoreside scientists have now confirmed tha

132、t the wreck is most likely the brig Industry.This discovery allows for the exploration of the history of this whaling crew and highlights the power of telepresence technology.2 220 2 2 N OA A S C I EN C E R EP O R TValor in the Atlantic Telepresence Expedition Shares the Excitement of Ocean Discover

133、y and Research in Real-TimeThe NOAA Ship Nancy Foster hosted the 2022 Valor in the Atlantic Telepresence Expedition showcasing the excitement of ocean discovery and research in real-time.The successful expedition was a partnership between NOAAs Office of National Marine Sanctuaries and the Global Fo

134、undation for Ocean Exploration.Field teams from NOAAs Monitor National Marine Sanctuary,NOAAs National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science,and North Carolinas Office of State Archaeology conducted the first in-depth,multidisciplinary survey of the iconic Civil War ironclad USS Monitor since NOAA and t

135、he U.S.Navy recovered the warships famous gun turret in 2002.NOAA is increasing access to special places in remote areas by using ROVs,to document and live-stream dives and surveys of the Monitor and other shipwrecks off the North Carolina coast.The live-stream webcast showcased these nationally sig

136、nificant historic sites and the surprisingly diverse biological communities and abundance of fish occupying the reef and wreck sites while bringing the excitement of exploration and the wonders of these ocean treasures to life for students,educators,scientists,and the public worldwide.Sand tiger sha

137、rks inspect Monitors bow on an expedition with Monitor National Marine Sanctuary and the Global Foundation for Ocean Exploration.Photo credit:NOAA/Global Foundation for Ocean ExplorationUnderstanding the Value of NOAA R&DNOAA aims to produce R&D that yields useful applications and improves our funda

138、mental understanding of the world.NOAAs R&D activities integrate social,behavioral,and economic sciences,contributing value to the U.S.economy and guiding important decisions that impact stakeholders and the natural environment.Value can be found in knowledge and products derived from NOAAs R&D that

139、 influence human behavior,such as hazardous 2 3I N T R O D U CT I O Nweather forecasts and risk communication that helps save lives,and aiding the management of natural resources that are valuable themselves,such as coral reefs that support the Blue Economy.The following projects assess societal imp

140、acts of NOAAs R&D through economic valuation to better understand the“return on investment”of NOAAs R&D for the American people.Valuing the Marine Economy NOAA and the Bureau of Economic Analysis jointly released an update to the official U.S.Marine Economy Satellite Account(MESA),which measures how

141、 dependent our nations economy is on resources stemming from the ocean,coasts,and major water bodies such as the Great Lakes.The results show the marine economy accounted for 1.7%or$361.4 billion of current-dollar U.S.gross domestic product(GDP)in 2020 and 1.7%,or$610.3 billion,in total sales.This r

142、elease shows the impact of the 2020 economic downturn for the first time-due to COVID-19,real(inflation-adjusted)GDP for the marine economy decreased 5.8%from 2019 to 2020.The account captures information from 2014 to 2020 and improves estimations from the previous modeling by using time-series inpu

143、t data,refining estimates for the construction and utilities sectors,and expanding the scope of activities in the professional and technical services sector.NOAAs products and services are key for the sustainable growth of the US marine economy,from fisheries management to providing information for

144、shipping and ports.The MESA also accounts for new and upcoming sectors indicating potential growth in demand for NOAAs products and services.GeoXO Economic AssessmentIn 2021,NOAAs Performance,Risk,and Social Science Office(PRSSO)initiated a study of the potential benefits to society of NOAAs next ge

145、neration geostationary satellite program(GeoXO).The current GeoXO plan includes instruments that will provide data needed to improve a wide range of NOAAs ocean,weather,climate,and air quality products.NOAA analyzed and described the full scope of beneficial societal outcomes and the processes by wh

146、ich improved observations lead to improved information and,in turn,societal outcomes.The team identified 175 use cases where GeoXO data are expected to provide benefits that will be realized by protecting life,increasing safety,increasing economic productivity,and reducing economic losses.This work

147、consists of nine economic studies that assess all or part of the benefits of 44 of the 175 use cases,comparing the sum of those benefits to the full cost of GeoXO.Lower bound estimates of benefits range between 314%to 452%of GeoXO costs.Upper bound estimates range from 380%to 547%of costs which indi

148、cates that the sum of economic benefits from GeoXO far exceed the full cost of GeoXO.2420 2 2 N OA A S C I EN C E R EP O R TSpace Weather Value AssessmentNOAA maintains the capability to monitor a vari-ety of Space Weather phenomena such as solar flares,coronal mass ejections,high-speed solar wind,s

149、olar energetic particles,and magnetic field variations.Solar weather events can affect a variety of important industries including,but not limited to,aviation,electric power grid,satellite operations,aviation operations,the global navigation satellite system,and related emergency services.NOAA is fo

150、rmulating the next generation of space weather monitoring and infrastructure.As part of the formulation process,PRSSO in coordination with NOAA NWS,are developing a study to assess the potential benefits of these new space weather observa-tions.The Space Weather benefit study will help inform the fi

151、nal configuration of NOAAs next generation suite of space weather sensors and will also support budget prosecution by Office of Management and Budget and Congressional staff.A wind turbine at the National Wind Technology Center in Colorado.Photo credit:NOAA/Cooperative Institute for Research in Envi

152、ronmental SciencesNOAA wind forecasts result in$150 million in energy savings every yearAs electricity providers increasingly add renewable energy to their portfolio,a new study shows that more accurate wind forecasts generated by a NOAA weather model is saving the utilities,and hence the consumers,

153、a lot of money.To quantify this economic benefit of more accurate wind speed forecasts,NOAA Research compared the older and newer versions of NOAAs High Resolution Rapid Refresh weather model,which provides 48 hour forecasts with updates every hour for every part of the United States.Utilities need

154、accurate wind forecasts in order to gauge electricity production and to determine when they need to generate or purchase energy from other sources when winds abate.Poor forecasts can cost a utility a lot of money,and those costs are then passed on to consumers while accurate forecasts result in subs

155、tantial savings.However,it is not always clear what those savings are.The 2 5I N T R O D U CT I O NHigh Resolution Rapid Refresh model generates predictions of wind speed and wind direction at different levels of the atmosphere,including at the height of wind turbines,which energy and utility compan

156、ies can use to gauge how much energy their turbines will produce.NOAA Research and Colorado State University research team calculated that increasingly accurate weather forecasts over the last decade have netted consumers over$150 million per year in energy savings.This map depicts a visualization o

157、f the High Resolution Rapid Refresh wind forecast for January 14,2022.A new study by NOAA and Colorado State University quantifies for the first time the economic value of accurate wind forecasts to electricity generation.Image credit:NOAA Global Systems Laboratory2620 2 2 N OA A S C I EN C E R EP O

158、 R TScienceHighlights27I N T R O D U CT I O NNOAAs National Centers for Coastal Science(NCCOS)diver,Laughlin Siceloff,conducts reef fish survey for the National Coral Reef Monitoring Program(NCRMP)mission at the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary(FGBNMS)in August 2022.This mission was led

159、 by NCCOS,the FGBNMS,and Southeast Fisheries Science Center with the help of National Park Service(NPS)and a variety of other partners.NCRMP dive surveys provide critical coral reef ecosystem information used in climate change modeling,fishery management,coastal habitat conservation efforts,and cora

160、l disease response.These surveys contribute to long-term observations of biological,climatic,and socioeconomic indicators,creating a robust picture of the status and trends of U.S.coral reef ecosystems and the communities connected to them.Photo credit:Rob Waara,NPS2 820 2 2 N OA A S C I EN C E R EP

161、 O R T S C I EN C E H I G H L I G H T S1.A Robust and Effective Research and Development EnterpriseNOAA R&D requires observations,models,and applications from emerging fields,such as artificial intelligence,for effective and efficient use of economic,social science,physical,and ecological data.In 20

162、22,building a robust and effective NOAA R&D enterprise included accomplishments in the following categories:Innovation in Technology,Observations and Data,New Tools Supporting Environmental Prediction,and Transitioning R&D.NOAA models analyze and predict the state of the ocean,atmosphere,cryosphere,

163、land,and biosphere,develop our knowledge of system dynamics,and inform decision making for mitigating hazards and optimizing stewardship.However,complex interactions between physical,biogeochemical,and behavioral phenomena make it difficult to accurately simulate and forecast future events.NOAAs R&D

164、 aims to improve predictions and representation of NOAAs models through new techniques,employing new or improved parameters,nesting and coupling Earth system modeling and data assimilation,and transitioning R&D to operations and applications.1.A Innovation in Technology,Observations and DataNew NOAA

165、 Partnership with Viking Expeditions embraces transformative advances in science and technologyIn May,2022,NOAA Research joined the Viking Octantis for its inaugural cruise season in the Great Lakes.As part of a cooperative agreement with Viking Expeditions,NOAA scientists are collaborating with the

166、 Viking Scientific Advisory Group and other institutions to conduct research on changes in the regions weather,climate,ecosystems,and maritime heritage resources.Teams of scientists working on a variety of studies are using the state-of-the-art Viking ships as research vessels of opportunity.Each sh

167、ip is equipped with a FerryBox,which is a set of instruments continuously collecting and displaying data on water quality,oxygen content,plankton composition,and more.The continuous,simultaneous collection of these vital data in the Great Lakes along repetitive ship routes allows scientists to monit

168、or changes on scales of season,years,and even decades.Vikings expedition ships have also been designated official NOAA NWS weather balloon stations,from which regular launches are undertaken.NOAAs work is being shared and promoted by researchers on board by providing tours and seminars for guests an

169、d other staff,as well as working side-by-side with other scientists on research activities.By partnering with Viking Expedition cruises,NOAA Research increases its access to the Great Lakes to stay informed of threats and issues across the lakes-including the impacts of climate change and acidificat

170、ion-while also drawing global attention to NOAAs research,laboratories,and programs serving and protecting the region.2 91.A I N N OVAT I O N I N T E C H N O LO G Y,O BS E R VAT I O N S A N D DATAThe Viking Octantis sits moored in NOAAs Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary,Lake Huron.Many of the ne

171、arly 400 passengers are tendered into downtown Alpena where they disembark at the sanctuarys Great Lakes Maritime Heritage Center and enjoy guided tours of interactive exhibits and historic shipwrecks aboard a glass bottom boat.Photo credit:NOAA,Thunder Bay National Marine SanctuaryNOAA uses geostat

172、ionary satellite data to enhance observation quality and coverage of sparsely monitored areasNOAA and NOAA Cooperative Institute scientists are improving satellite observational capabilities using Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite(GOES)data,partner satellite data,and machine learning

173、 to increase efficiency and coverage of observations that are typically gathered from fixed Earth locations or satellites in low Earth orbit.Estimates of radar,passive microwave imagery,and nighttime visible imagery using the high resolution GOES,help with a variety of challenges associated with low

174、-earth-orbit observations by providing consistently calibrated and constant-resolution estimates every 10-minutes.The“GOES Radar Estimation via Machine Learning to Inform Numerical weather prediction”,or GREMLIN,is being used in the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model(a forecast model that provides

175、detailed hourly updates of rapidly evolving weather),and the GOES-based ProxyVis is now available to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.Machine-learning derived estimates are also showing promise for tropical cyclone applications.Additionally,GOES-based synthetic passive microwave imagery

176、is now able to convey radar-like images of cloud depth and organization in real time.Each of these capabilities improve observational availability for forecasters,particularly in oceanic and otherwise observationally sparse regions.This GOES-18 GeoColor satellite image showed valley fog fading as sm

177、oke persisted along the Pacific Northwest coast on October 17,2022.NOAA satellites provide critical data used in models and forecasts and potentially life-saving information in a dynamic fire environment.Image credit:NOAA NESDIS3 020 2 2 N OA A S C I EN C E R EP O R T S C I EN C E H I G H L I G H T

178、SThe Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haapai volcano erupted on January 15,2022.Photo credit:Tonga Geological ServicesObserving a unique tsunami event caused by the Tonga volcano eruption may lead to new understanding of these rare eventsOn January 15,2022,the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haapai volcano erupted,generating a

179、tsunami and triggering tsunami alerts around the world.The pressure wave from the volcanic eruption explosion traveled about 312 meters/second(697 miles per hour),and circled the Earth three times before dissipating.About 5%of tsunamis are generated from volcanic activity,making this a rare event ca

180、ptured by NOAAs observing instruments.The Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis(DART)buoy system measured the tsunami wave amplitudes and the atmospheric pressure wave associated with a shock-wave emanating from the volcano explosion.Two NOAA-Saildrone uncrewed surface vehicles captured cr

181、ucial information such as tsunami wave amplitudes and atmospheric pressure measurements associated with the remote volcanic activity in an observationally-sparse region of the ocean.These data can be used to improve tsunami models and have assisted tsunami researchers to better understand this rare

182、event.DART buoys detect tsunami waves and transmit real-time sea level information measurements back to the Tsunami Warning Centers.Credit:NOAA311.A I N N OVAT I O N I N T E C H N O LO G Y,O BS E R VAT I O N S A N D DATAMap of the tropical Pacific showing the positions of DART buoys operated by NOAA

183、 and international partners as well as saildrone 1065 and 1066 relative to the Hunga Haapai Volcano located in the Pacific island nation of Tonga,which is an archipelago consisting of more than 170 islands.Image credit:NOAA Researchs Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory Operational Acquisition of

184、 RadarSat Constellation Mission The RadarSat Constellation Mission is a constellation of three synthetic aperture radar satellites operated by the Canadian Space Agency.The all-weather,high resolution capacities of synthetic aperture radar provide valuable information for a variety of NOAAs missions

185、 including monitoring ice,floods,winds,tropical cyclones,waves,vessel location,and oil spills.NOAA became an international partner with the Canadian Space Agency in March 2021.This partnership allowed NOAA to access approximately 400-600 images per day over North America and the Arctic without incur

186、ring additional costs.The addition of the RadarSat Constellation Mission has become a critical data source for ice monitoring products.The U.S.National Ice Center and the NOAA NWS Alaskan Sea Ice Program use these data to generate their analyses and forecasts,which are utilized for wind forecasting

187、by the NOAA NWS Alaska Region,the Great Lakes NOAA NWS forecast offices,the U.S.Coast Guard,the Ocean Prediction Center,the Joint Typhoon Warning Center,and National Hurricane Center.The RadarSat Constellation Mission collections of flooding conditions near the U.S./Canadian borders have been import

188、ant to monitoring floods by the National Water Center and NOAA NWS Regional Forecast Offices in the Red River of the North,Dakotas,Alaska,and Washington State.NOAA NESDIS has worked to ensure optimal production and delivery for the RadarSat Constellation Mission products and imagery.The RadarSat Con

189、stellation Mission is now fully integrated into NOAA NESDIS products and has transitioned into operations.RadarSat Constellation Mission imagery of Lake Erie ice coverage on January 31,2022.The RadarSat Constellation Mission has become a valuable data source for ice monitoring products.Image credit:

190、NOAA NESDIS 3 220 2 2 N OA A S C I EN C E R EP O R T S C I EN C E H I G H L I G H T SNew Multi-Constellation Global Navigation Satellite System Positioning Software Yields Improved Positioning SolutionsConstellations of Earth-orbiting satellites from different nations around the world make up the Gl

191、obal Navigation Satellite System(GNSS),broadcasting their locations in space and time,providing critical information about positioning,navigation,and timing.The NOAA NOS National Geodetic Survey has developed the new Multi-GNSS Program for the Adjustment of GPS Ephemerides(M-PAGES)that can now proce

192、ss data from any dual frequency satellite in the GNSS,compared to the previous PAGES system,limited to only Global Positioning Systems or“GPS”data.These data are used in a variety of ways ranging from smartphone directions,to safety of aviation operations,navigation of large ships into port,timing o

193、f financial transactions,precision agriculture,and emergency responses.Full GNSS data processing capabilities enable access to more satellites that will provide higher quality information to users.M-PAGES will soon be integrated into many public-facing products and services provided by NOAA NOS such

194、 as the Online Positioning User Service,orbit production for contribution to the International Global Navigation Satellite System Service,and coordinate determination for the NOAA CORS Network.1.B New Tools Supporting Environmental PredictionArtificial Intelligence Speeds Delivery of Information Cri

195、tical for Whale Conservation in AlaskaAlaska is one of the most important feeding grounds for whales from around the Pacific Ocean.One of the best ways to understand whales is to listen to their calls.NOAA Fisheries in Alaska developed a new artificial intelligence program,Infrastructure for Noise a

196、nd Soundscape Tolerant Investigation of Nonspecific Call Types,or INSTINCT,which is helping scientists study whales by detecting and identifying their calls from underwater acoustic recordings.Automating this analysis means data critical for whale conservation gets to managers yearssometimes decades

197、faster.This timely delivery is more important now than ever as climate change is rapidly transforming ecosystems.Although INSTINCT was developed for Alaska,it is adaptable for use across all oceans and is open to the public.This work will be particularly important for collecting much needed informat

198、ion on the endangered North Pacific right whale.With only 30 of these whales remaining in the eastern North Pacific,understanding habitat usage,especially with a changing climate,is critical for protecting them.North Pacific right whale.Photo credit:NOAA Fisheries3 31.B N E W TO O LS S U P P O RT I

199、N G E N V I R O N M E N TA L P R E D I CT I O NA New Approach to Approximate Wave Height from Acoustic Tide Gauges Supports Improved Forecasts and Better Understanding of Coastal Flooding HazardsA new method to approximate wave height from acoustic tide gauges was developed and can now be used to im

200、prove forecast models and better understand coastal flooding hazards.NOAA NOS utilized existing NOAA tide gauge infrastructure to derive a proxy for wave height at three coastal ocean sites:Duck,NC,Corpus Christi,TX,and Lake Worth,FL.Decades of data representing wave height were used to investigate

201、climatological and seasonal trends providing new insight into the influence of waves and wave driven processes.Researchers and resource managers can use this critical information to better understand inundation and erosion,verify the accuracy of coastal model predictions,and ensure navigational safe

202、ty for the maritime community.This valuable knowledge supports safer and more resilient coastal communities that play an important role in the New Blue Economy.NOAA Debuts Next Generation Water Resources Modeling Framework to Advance Water Prediction Capabilities NOAA NWS successfully demonstrated t

203、he Next Generation Water Resources Modeling Framework(Next Gen),a powerful new capability that will transform hydrologic and water resources prediction at all time scales.For the first time ever,the framework enables different hydrologic models in different portions of a simulated geographic domain

204、to run simultaneously,all on a common channel network.This framework paves the way for enhanced decision support using more detailed geospatial water information nationwide.Next Gen leverages an open-source,interoperable environment that promotes innovation across a wide range of hydrologic,hydrauli

205、c,coastal,and water quality sectors to develop tools to address water resources challenges using a common framework.Next Gen will unlock an entirely new approach for agency collaboration across the water enterprise supporting NOAAs development of the unified forecast system,accelerating the research

206、 to operations cycle for water resource modeling,and yielding rapid increases in prediction skill.Six Way Global Coupled Unified Forecast System-a first for NOAA/NOAA NWSNOAA NWS has developed a global forecast model focused on predicting weather from two weeks to two months(seasonal to sub-seasonal

207、)that includes the atmosphere,ocean,sea ice,waves,land,and aerosols(a six-way coupled model)utilizing the Unified Forecast System(UFS),a community-based,comprehensive Earth modeling framework.In a series of preliminary experiments,all model prototypes demonstrated improved forecast skill overall rel

208、ative to the current seasonal operational systems at NOAA NWS.The new model extends the horizon for useful forecasts by approximately four to seven days compared to NOAA NWS operational Climate Forecast System.The forecast skill exhibited by these prototypes was found to be superior for multiple mea

209、sures(air temperatures,sea surface temperatures,precipitation,etc.)when compared to existing operational results at weather-to-sub-seasonal scales.This new global forecast model will potentially enable NOAA NWS to provide improved future sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions for water resources inclu

210、ding flood and drought;storm severity and frequency;hurricane intensity and frequency;3 420 2 2 N OA A S C I EN C E R EP O R T S C I EN C E H I G H L I G H T Smarine heatwaves;extreme heat or cold wave;extreme winds;fire severity and danger;and other environmental factors,on a national and global sc

211、ale.Key decision makers such as water managers,emergency managers,energy producers,farmers,military leaders and other sectors will benefit from being able to make informed decisions which have significant impact on the U.S.gross domestic product,economic vitality,and national security.1.C Transition

212、ing R&DNOAA and the Nation extract benefits from NOAAs research when the research results transition into use.Consequently,R&D transitions are essential to addressing NOAAs missions.Examples of NOAA transitions include operational weather forecasting models,integration of tools for improving observa

213、tion of tropical cyclones,and uncrewed systems and/or sensor payloads for data collection for a wide variety of uses,such as harmful algal blooms and marine mammal monitoring.NOAA characterizes and tracks the maturity of its scientific projects through readiness levels for research,development,demon

214、stration,and deployment.Transition plans help to guide R&D maturation and transition of R&D to its planned end use,ensuring agreement between researchers and the planned adopters.NOAA transitioned products and services,whether internally to NOAA or into the commercial sector,represent tangible scien

215、tific outcomes that serve NOAAs mission and benefit the American people.In fiscal year 2022,NOAA transitioned 70 research projects into operations,applications,commercialization.Some critical transition examples include:NOAA NWS Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Forecasts Transition to Operational The Wet

216、Bulb Globe Temperature(WBGT)is designed for active,outdoor populations(such as outdoor workers)as a measure of heat stress and is currently used by several NOAA NWS partners such as collegiate and high school athletic departments,marathon and triathlon 3 52.R E D U C I N G S O C I E TA L I M PACTS F

217、 R O M H AZA R D O US W E AT H E Rorganizers,and the military.After two years as an experimental weather parameter,the WBGT forecast is operational as of June 1,2022.The WBGT forecast utilizes local forecast temperature,humidity,wind,and sky cover along with sun-angle.For the contiguous U.S.the WBGT

218、 forecasts are accessible hourly up to 36 hours,every three hours up to three days,and every six hours up to seven days in advance.WBGT forecasts for Hawaii,Guam,and Puerto Rico are available every three hours up to three days and every six hours up to seven days in advance.The WBGT forecast allows

219、NOAA NWS to meet decision support services needs for partners that use this particular heat tool and ultimately will help protect people from heat stress.The worlds highest resolution global storm surge model becomes operationalA new three-dimensional component,enhancing the Surge and Tide Operation

220、al Forecast System(STOFS)with valuable information about water conditions in the Atlantic Ocean,became ready for use in 2022.The STOFS is the worlds highest resolution global ocean modeling system that provides forecast guidance for combined water levels caused by storm surge and tides.STOFS is deve

221、loped by NOAA NOS in collaboration with academic partners and NOAA NWS.The new three-dimensional STOFS component for the Atlantic Ocean(including Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean)provides water levels,currents,salinity and temperature and is now operational.STOFS-3D-Atlantic uses input from the National

222、 Water Model to include the effects of inland hydrology and extreme precipitation on coastal storm surge and provides critical forecast information for coastal resilience and navigation safety.2.Reducing Societal Impacts from Hazardous WeatherThis GOES-East GeoColor satellite image taken at 9:56 a.m

223、.EDT on Tuesday,September 27,2022,and shows Hurricane Ian passing over western Cuba.Image credit:NOAANOAA research and development improves the forecasts and warnings that provide accurate,timely information to the public about hazardous weather and environmental events.Through a better understandin

224、g of weather and climate phenomena,as well as human perception and behavior in response to risk communication,NOAA science helps save lives and property.NOAAs scientific accomplishments related to hazardous weather for 2022 have been divided into three groups:observations,models and forecasts,and co

225、mmunications and engagement.Observations NOAA observes environmental conditions through the use of radar,satellites,buoys,uncrewed systems,aircraft,weather balloons,and other instruments.These observations 3 620 2 2 N OA A S C I EN C E R EP O R T S C I EN C E H I G H L I G H T Sundergo quality contr

226、ol checks and are used as initial conditions for constraining models,among other uses.Past hazardous weather events also serve to inform future forecasts and decision making.Models and ForecastsNOAA models future environmental conditions using observations,mathematical relationships,and information

227、from past weather events.NOAAs models span various time scales(hindcasts to decades)and spatial scales(local to solar)so that they can be best suited for different forecasts of hazardous environmental phenomena.NOAA issues forecasts of potentially hazardous weather based on models to provide advance

228、 warning of these conditions so that people can take action to protect their lives and property.Communications and EngagementNOAAs communication products assist a wide range of users understand the risks when dealing with severe weather phenomena.NOAA uses social science to understand human percepti

229、on and behavior and the impacts of hazardous weather phenomena in order to better communicate forecasted threats and reduce societal impacts.This image depicts the number of U.S.Lightning Fatalities from 2012-2022,by gender.There has been an overall decrease in fatalities in general,with a record lo

230、w number of lightning fatalities in 2021.Credit:NOAA NWSA DECADE OF BUILDING A WEATHER-READY NATION Weather-Ready Nation(WRN)was established as a NOAA strategic goal in 2011 after a series of extreme weather events.In the decade following,NOAA NWS and many other parts of NOAA have made great progres

231、s toward building communities that are ready,responsive,and resilient to extreme weather,water,and climate events.Better forecasts,more effective communication,impact-based decision support services,and a stronger commitment to partners are just a few areas of improvements that have resulted in bett

232、er societal outcomes.In 2021,there were record low lightning fatalities,several significant tornado events with no deaths,over 93 million Twitter accounts engaged with SafePlaceSelfie Day,and the number of WRN ambassador organizations surpassed 12,000.From 2018-2021,even with 15 landfalling hurrican

233、es,there have been only 8 total storm surge deaths.Storm surge improvements such as operational Storm Surge Warnings,inundation mapping,and more effective evacuation messaging have all contributed to this success.As WRN enters its second decade,efforts will shift toward the community-scale,and to en

234、gage underserved and vulnerable communities.3 72.A O BS E R VAT I O N S2.A ObservationsManual Radiosonde Observing System Deployment across the NOAA NWS Upper Air NetworkObservations of the upper atmosphere allow weather forecasters to evaluate the vertical distribution of temperature,humidity and w

235、ind,which is critical to forecasting severe storms and tornadoes.In order to enhance NOAA weather forecasts,NOAA NWS is migrating the entire Upper Air observation system from the legacy 1680 MHz frequency to 403 MHz frequency.Two 403 MHz Manual Radiosonde Observing Systems(MROS)were deployed to acco

236、mplish this task.Radiosondes are atmospheric sensors that provide upper-air data that are essential for weather forecasts and research.MROS provides enhancements to the Upper Air observations such as measurements every second.In 2022,NOAA NWS has installed 100%of the new MROS system.This deployment

237、profile and success rate has never been observed before within the Upper Air program,and was achieved despite numerous logistical challenges and COVID-19 related disruptions.Despite these hurdles,NOAA NWS was able to meet mission needs and without this effort,critical Upper Air operations would not

238、have continued.The continuation of Upper Air data collection is critical for our forecasting systems,as they have shown to improve forecasts,which are essential for NOAAs life-saving mission.Schematic diagram illustrating 2022 hurricane observations by uncrewed underwater,surface,and aerial vehicles

239、 in conjunction with aircraft observations.Credit:Sarah BattleCritical new ocean and atmosphere observations advance our understanding of hurricane structure and support improved forecastingImproving the accuracy of NOAAs operational hurricane forecasts requires more complete real-time knowledge of

240、atmospheric and oceanic conditions and more realistic representation of key physical processes in hurricane forecast models.During the 2022 hurricane season,NOAA collected critical new observations during major hurricanes using seven uncrewed surface vehicles(Saildrones),underwater gliders with uncr

241、ewed aerial drones,and aircraft.Saildrone 3 820 2 2 N OA A S C I EN C E R EP O R T S C I EN C E H I G H L I G H T Sobservations covered areas where the chances of hurricane occurrence are high between August 1-October 30,2022 and captured observations during two major hurricanes:Fiona and Ian.Saildr

242、ones acquired critical measurements,such as wind speed and wave height,through the center of Hurricane Fionas eye while a NOAA underwater glider collected data seven miles northeast of it.In addition to measurements collected by uncrewed systems,NOAA Research hurricane hunters(the NOAA P-3 aircraft)

243、took to the sky,completing a total of 72 research and operational missions on Hurricane Hunter aircraft.In late August,hurricane researchers spent 12 consecutive days conducting 20 research missions into the storm system which was later named Hurricane Earl,marking the longest series of missions int

244、o a single tropical system ever conducted by NOAA.The hurricane hunters carry the Imaging Wind and Rain Profiler,an airborne scanning Doppler radar system that measures wind speed and direction in the presence of precipitation just below the aircraft down to just above the ocean surface.These observ

245、ations,during the 2022 hurricane season,provided NOAA with critical new information about the structure of the inner core of hurricanes and helped increase our understanding of the atmosphere below a hurricane at the air-sea interface.Detailed Wind Observations and Characterization Improves Tropical

246、 Cyclone Forecasting CapacitiesNOAA NESDIS is generating detailed wind speed estimates using synthetic aperture radar imagery.The synthetic aperture radar is an active sensor that collects data by making its own energy,remotely sending a signal to Earth,and then recording the amount of energy reflec

247、ted back after interacting with Earth.Synthetic aperture radar data are currently used to generate precise wind speed estimates,but have been limited to a range of less than 67 miles per hour.Data from the 2019 hurricane season were used to refine the estimates of wind speeds from tropical cyclones.

248、The synthetic aperture radar wind data are able to provide wind speeds right up to coastlines and provide more detailed storm structure information not previously available.Tropical-storm force wind products include wind speed imagery,radial winds,wind speed threshold imagery,mean winds,and data est

249、imates for integration into the Automated Tropical Forecast System.NOAA NESDIS provides these products to NOAAs National Hurricane Center,the U.S.Military Joint Typhoon Warning Center,and the U.S.Central Pacific Hurricane Center.This shows a map of ocean surface wind speed over Hurricane Ian on Sept

250、ember 26,2022 at 6:27am ET,from a synthetic aperture radar(SAR)image taken by a satellite from the Canadian Space Agencys RadarSat Constellation Mission.Wind speed maps like this accurately locate the eye of the hurricane and provide important information about the wind field intensity needed by for

251、ecasters.Credit:Wind speed map by NOAAs Center for Satellite Application and Research,Water Surface Conditions Science Team.SAR image provided by the Canadian Space Agencys Radarsat Constellation Mission.3 92.A O BS E R VAT I O N SMonitoring Land Surface Temperature Anomalies aids in decision making

252、 during Extreme Weather EventsThe frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have rapidly increased over the past few decades,posing serious threats to lives and infrastructure.A comprehensive system was developed to monitor land surface temperature anomalies through satellite observations an

253、d address concerns from the public.In general,land surface temperature anomalies can be driven by a variety of factors from large-scale climate events(e.g.,El Nio/La Nia)to local hazard impact(e.g.,wildfire).These anomalies are often a response to frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.A

254、series of monthly summaries provide focus and help detection of corresponding strong weather anomalies and high-impact environmental events.Recent studies included multiple hazardous weather events,encompassing heatwaves,wildfires,winter storms,strong cold events,drought,and their potential impacts

255、to the environment.The new land surface temperature anomaly monitoring system has improved understanding of weather anomaly status,raised peoples awareness of increasing risks due to changes in climate,and helps decision making.Monthly land surface temperature(LST)anomalies for April(upper)and May(l

256、ower),2022.The“low-high-low”pattern across Eurasia moved eastward and expanded to the north;a significant heat event in Texas lasted two months and as a result of a significant heatwave around May 20th,warm anomalies were observed throughout the east coast of the US.Image credit:NOAAA new observatio

257、nal strategy to improve lake-effect snow situational awarenessWinter weather around the Great Lakes is strongly influenced by the Lakes themselves,most notably through the production of lake-effect snow caused by cold air moving across the relatively warmer lakes.NOAA-supported surface snow microphy

258、sics and profiling radar observations from the Marquette,MI,NOAA NWS Weather Forecast Office have contributed valuable data which have helped build knowledge about the variability in the micro scale physics of snow associated with different snowfall regimes in the Great Lakes region.The ground-based

259、 observations allow for the development of better forecasting guidance on snow-to-liquid ratios and total snowfall accumulations associated with different snowfall regimes and environmental conditions.These observations are directly translated into a new snowfall rate estimation product derived by c

260、ombining Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite and Next Generation Weather Radar observations,helping to fill radar observational gaps and improve lake effect snow fall awareness and decision making in the Great Lakes region.4 020 2 2 N OA A S C I EN C E R EP O R T S C I EN C E H I G H L

261、 I G H T SInstalling the Micro Rain Radar(profiling radar)at the Marquette,MI National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office.Photo credit:NOAA NWSNOAA Satellite Estimates of Particulate matter Expand Air Quality Observations to Millions of People in Rural AreasNOAA and the Environmental Protection

262、 Agency(EPA)have partnered to update the EPAs air quality information portal(AirNow)by importing NOAAs hourly surface particulate matter(PM2.5)estimates from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Advanced Baseline Imager(ABI)aerosol optical depth product.AirNow is accessed by more than a

263、 million users daily and the inclusion of NOAA satellite based estimates of hourly PM2.5 levels will fill in gaps between air quality monitors that are clustered in urban areas and increase access to air quality observations in rural areas exposed to harmful pollutants.The five-minute 412.B M O D E

264、LS A N D FO R E C A STSABI data are composited into hourly maps,which minimizes gaps from clouds and provides optimal coverage.After AirNow upgrades in 2023,these hourly maps of PM2.5,used by air quality forecasters,firefighters,and others,will be displayed as a rolling 3-hour average product on the

265、 AirNow portal,a user-friendly site where the public can view air quality information at the local and national scale.2.B Models and ForecastsNOAA NWS Improves Nearshore Wave Prediction ForecastingMultiple coexisting wave systems are common at any point in the ocean,each containing their own unique

266、height,period,and direction.Details on each of these wave systems provide valuable information for marine customers.Currently,NOAA NWS Weather Forecast Offices provide the Coastal Waters Forecast as the wave height(highest third of the waves)or as wind wave and swell.With the use of the updated Near

267、shore Wave Prediction System,NOAA NWS can now provide height,period,and direction of the significant wave systems that make up the significant wave height.Providing greater wave detail with more clarity for marine users such as ship pilots,tug operators,and recreational boaters will help support pla

268、nning and safety on the water.Online air-quality forecast capability Poor air quality causes over 100,000 deaths annually in the U.S.,it exacerbates existing illness in vulnerable populations,and it disproportionately affects underserved communities.Wildfires worsen air quality for local communities

269、 and their smoke sometimes covers multiple states from coast to coast.Working with NOAA Research,NOAA NESDIS and universities,NOAA NWS is leading an effort to build a new regional online air quality prediction system that brings together atmosphere and land models.The goal of the project is to impro

270、ve prediction of the impact of wildfire smoke on air quality.The online system integrates the UFS based atmospheric model with the Community Multiscale Air Quality model.The new system is expected to provide more accurate forecast guidance to local and state air quality forecasters,the general publi

271、c and other stakeholders.The initial real-time demonstration of this system began in the summer of 2022 and is ongoing.Volcanic ash ensemble forecastThe accidental release of a hazardous material into the atmosphere can adversely affect the health and lives of the exposed population and emergency re

272、sponders.The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory,or HYSPLIT,is one of the most widely used models for atmospheric trajectory and dispersion calculations,helping to determine the distance and direction air particles and pollutants will travel.It is also NOAAs operational model for

273、 emergency applications such as the simulation of atmospheric plumes from radioactive emissions,chemical releases,smoke originating from wildfires,volcanic ash,and wind-blown dust.One of the key objectives of this project is to assess and communicate the uncertainty in the forecasting of the transpo

274、rt,dispersion,and deposition of materials such as volcanic ashes,4220 2 2 N OA A S C I EN C E R EP O R T S C I EN C E H I G H L I G H T Sby using simulations generated by HYSPLIT.This new forecast system began operating in December 2022.This would be the first HYSPLIT ensemble dispersion capability

275、to predict and quantify Volcanic Ash plume uncertainty for serving both public and private sectors,especially the aviation industry.Providing forecasters better situational awareness of approaching snowstorms in radar data sparse regionsThe NOAA NESDIS satellite-radar merged snowfall rate product fi

276、lls gaps in radar only coverage during a strong winter storm on March 15,2021.(Yellow-Radar Gap,Pink-Intense Snowfall Gap)Image credit:NOAA NESDISRadar is a critical tool for weather forecasting,including forecasting snowfall during winter storms.However,radar coverage gaps are common throughout the

277、 country,especially in the western United States and mountainous regions where land can block the radar beam.NOAA currently has a snowfall rate product that is derived from a constellation of polar-orbiting satellites.With an unobstructed view of the Earth,the polar-orbiting satellites provide broad

278、 spatial coverage that can help fill in radar gaps.A newly developed satellite and radar merged snowfall rate data product uses the spatial coverage of satellite observations and the rapid update of radar data.Short-term forecasting benefits from how quickly the direct broadcast satellite data are a

279、vailable to forecasters.The satellite-radar merged product is now incorporated into the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System.Forecasters can use the information to provide weather and social media updates on heavy snowfall.432.C CO M M U N I C AT I O N S A N D E N GAG E M E N TA New Satell

280、ite Emissions Product will Improve the Accuracy of National Ambient Air Quality ForecastsThe current NOAA NWS operational air quality forecast model guidance for ozone,particulate matter(PM2.5),and smoke relies on fire detection and the rate at which radiative energy is released from a burning fire,

281、or fire radiative power,from polar-orbiting satellites.These once-a-day updates of fire emissions in air quality forecast models do not capture the important daily variation of fire activity that influences air quality.NOAA NESDIS developed a new algorithm(known as RAVE)that blends fire radiative po

282、wer from both polar-orbiting satellites and geostationary satellites.The algorithm generates emissions of various air quality related trace gasses,smoke aerosols,and greenhouse gasses in real-time that are then used in air quality forecasts.The new emissions product is expected to improve the accura

283、cy of the NOAA NWS National Ambient Air Quality Forecast Capability for ozone and PM2.5.RAVE algorithm estimates of the amount of annual dry mass(DM)burned due to fires between April 2020 and March 2021 is shown in(a).The amount of fine particulate matter(PM2.5)released from the fires consuming the

284、dry mass is shown in(b).Image credit:Li,F.,X.Zhang,S.Kondragunta,X.Lu,I.Csiszar,and C.C.Schmidt,Hourly biomass burning emissions product from blended geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites for air quality forecasting applications,Remote Sensing of Environment,in press,2022.2.C Communications an

285、d EngagementTheres a Chance of What?Assessing Numeracy Skills of Forecasters,Partners,and the PublicAdvancements in weather forecasting have increased the availability of probabilistic weather information,such as weather forecasts,reports,and storm prediction models that are subject to chance,and mo

286、re importantly,have highlighted a critical need to understand the most effective way to communicate probabilistic information to people.Past research suggests that people want probabilistic information and find it useful for making decisions in the face of uncertainty;however,people are diverse in t

287、heir abilities to comprehend and use probabilities when making decisions.To increase the equity of forecast information,NOAA Research,in collaboration with NOAA NWS,funded a project to examine how forecasters,emergency managers,and the American public interpret and comprehend probabilistic tropical

288、cyclone information,such as a storm surge flooding map.Using a concept known as numeracy,or ones ability to use and understand numerical information,this study suggests that probability information helps people make decisions in the face of uncertainty.The study also found 4 420 2 2 N OA A S C I EN

289、C E R EP O R T S C I EN C E H I G H L I G H T Sthat having lower levels of numeracy can impact their risk literacy and decision-making process.By designing forecast products that take into account the diverse numeracy needs of end users,comprehension and response to probabilistic forecasts will be i

290、mproved.Improved Peak Storm Surge Forecast GraphicStorm surge is an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm,over and above the predicted astronomical tide.Since May 2020,NOAA NWS has been providing an experimental graphic that depicts the Peak Storm Surge Forecast from the Tropical Cyclone Publi

291、c Advisory Product when watches or warnings are in effect.The graphic has been modified for the 2022 season to include an updated disclaimer and color coding for the peak storm surge inundation forecast.This improved graphic allows to better communicate storm surge threat to the public,decision make

292、rs and officials.Experimental peak storm surge forecast graphic for Hurricane Ian on September 27,2022 at 11AM EDT.Image credit:NOAA NWS 3.Building A Climate Ready NationAs outlined in NOAAs 2022-2026 Strategic Plan,NOAA is uniquely positioned to support the whole-of-government effort to address the

293、 climate crisis,strengthen resilience,and promote economic growth.Together with its partners,NOAA will build a Climate Ready Nation whose prosperity,health,security and continued growth benefit from and depend upon a shared understanding of and collective action to reduce the impacts of climate chan

294、ge.NOAA observation and monitoring systems provide long-term data to identify trends and feedback in the climate system.NOAA models produce bulletins and outlooks of future conditions,which the public can use to assess their risk to societal impacts of climate and respond with mitigating and adaptiv

295、e actions.Comprehensive service delivery and 453.A M O N I TO R I N G C L I M AT E C H A N G Edecision support tools are necessary to build a Climate Ready Nation to meet the needs of businesses,federal partners,and communities most vulnerable to climate and weather hazards.Approaching climate scien

296、ce work with an environmental justice framework is key for NOAA to improve the accessibility,usefulness,and impact of the science and services.This chapter is organized into three sections to highlight key focus areas for a Climate Ready Nation:Monitoring Climate Change,Predicting Future Change,and

297、Environmental Impact and Human Response.Monitoring Climate ChangeNOAA monitors the climate to assess changes in temperature,precipitation,sea ice concentration,and the frequency and intensity of storms and climatic phenomena like El Nio over a range of timescales.Some examples of how NOAA monitors c

298、limate are measuring greenhouse gas concentrations,quantifying sea ice changes through satellites,assessing changes in the pH of seawater,and evaluating changes in the water cycle.Predicting Future ChangeUsing data collected from years of monitoring climate change,scientists are able to predict futu

299、re changes to our climate on scales ranging from weeks and months(subseasonal)to seasons and decades.Whether it is diagnosing when a long drought will come to an end,or modeling atmospheric rivers,these forecasts help the nation prepare for and adapt to future conditions.Environmental Impact and Hum

300、an ResponseInterpreting the dynamic state of global climate change and how it impacts society remains a priority of NOAA research and development.NOAAs social scientists are a key part in understanding how hazardous climate and weather phenomena impact human perception and behavior which results in

301、improved communication of these forecasted threats and ultimately reduces societal impacts.3.A Monitoring Climate ChangeMethane emission inventories miss fossil fuel sources leading to emission underestimates in North AmericaNatural gas has become an increasingly important energy source in the U.S.b

302、ecause of its low cost and lower carbon dioxide emissions relative to other fossil fuels.However,natural gas emissions are a primary source of methane the shorter lasting but more powerful greenhouse gas.A new collaborative study,used atmospheric measurements of methane concentrations to track emiss

303、ions over eight years(2012-2020)in Boston,MA.Urban observatory on the roof of Boston University where researchers have monitored atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide for eight years.Photo credit:Lucy Hutyra4 620 2 2 N OA A S C I EN C E R EP O R T S C I EN C E H I G H L I G H T SSpecifically,resear

304、chers used the HYSPLIT transport model to find discrepancies in existing methane inventories,demonstrating that emissions from the use and distribution of natural gas are about six times higher than current estimates.The results suggest that consumption-driven processes,like using natural gas for he

305、ating,may produce more than half of these emissions,rather than pipeline leaks.Accounting for this underestimation may require future policy action to mitigate the climate impact of these newly characterized emissions.Researchers climb mountains to improve weather and water forecasting toolsThe Colo

306、rado River Basin is a primary water source for six states and 40 million people from Denver to Los Angeles.In mountainous headwater regions,snowmelt generates the majority of streamflow and water reservoir storage in the basin.A 20-year drought and warming,caused by climate change,have significantly

307、 impacted water availability,resulting in the first-ever declaration of shortage conditions in 2021 by the United States Bureau of Reclamation.With growing population,new predictions about the ongoing drought,and an estimated 10-50%further reductions in Colorado River flow by mid-century,theres a gr

308、owing need for careful water resource management.To help address this need,NOAA and partners from universities,federal and state organizations,and industry are participating in a two-year Study of Precipitation,the Lower Atmosphere and Surface for Hydrometeorology,or SPLASH.A driving motivation for

309、SPLASH is to gain a better understanding of the physical processes impacting the watershed,and how much water ends up in the Colorado River.A network of radars,instrumented towers,and individual sensors is measuring temperature,precipitation amount,soil moisture,snowpack properties,land-atmosphere i

310、nteractions,and other variables.Additionally,instrumented aircraft will collect snowpack survey observations at key times,and small uncrewed aircraft will investigate the basin at altitudes where its unsafe to fly crewed planes.Several interesting findings to date include:1)an intense winter storm e

311、vent at the end of December 2021 was responsible for a significant fraction of the years total snowfall;2)a rapid snow melt in spring 2022 resulting from dust and black carbon(source is likely from wildfires and drought affected regions)accumulating on the snow surface;3)an active summer monsoon sea

312、son with numerous precipitation events.The team has also been working with NOAA NWS partners to identify errors in operational precipitation products in the SPLASH region.Janet Intrieri and Chris Cox,from NOAA Researchs Physical Science Laboratory,install an Atmospheric Surface Flux Station for SPLA

313、SH.Photo credit:Gijs de Boer,NOAA/Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences473.A M O N I TO R I N G C L I M AT E C H A N G EOne of the four field sites set up for the SPLASH field campaign.Shown are instruments at the Kettle Ponds site.Photo credit:Ryan Currier,NOAASatellites prov

314、ide new information on Arctic sea ice declineResearch using NOAAs satellite climate data records has produced new insights on dramatic,multi-decadal changes in Arctic sea ice area,thickness,and volume for perennially and seasonally ice-covered areas,and gives a new estimate of when the Arctic may be

315、 ice-free in the summer.Sea ice is a critical part of the climate system through its interaction with the atmosphere and the ocean,while also playing an important role in marine ecosystems,navigation,and national security.This work employs a new perspective based on ice longevity to determine where

316、ice is persistent and where it is disappearing.These analyses highlight the presence and persistence of ice in an area that directly influences arctic weather and climate,marine transportation,and ecosystems.Findings show that the Arctic has become less ice-covered in all seasons,however summer and

317、autumn stand out with the most changes.The loss of the perennial sea ice-covered area is the major factor in the total sea ice loss in all seasons.If the current rates of sea ice changes in extent,concentration,and thickness continue,the Arctic is expected to have ice-free summers by the early 2060s

318、.Spatial distribution of Arctic sea ice in 1982(left)and 2020(right)for perennial and seasonal sea ice and snow on land.Image credit:NOAA NESDIS4 820 2 2 N OA A S C I EN C E R EP O R T S C I EN C E H I G H L I G H T SA large red and white PIRATA buoy is shown on deck of the NOAA Ship Ronald H.Brown

319、during the 2021 PIRATA Northeast Extension Research cruise.Photo credit:NOAA Researchs Atlantic Oceanographic&Meteorological LaboratoryVital Ocean Observations Collected during the COVID-19 PandemicNOAA scientists and partners from an assortment of universities and Cooperative Institutes successfull

320、y collected crucial ocean and climate observations while navigating COVID-19 challenges.The most comprehensive ocean acidification sampling of the Gulf of Mexico to date was completed by the fourth Gulf of Mexico Ecosystems and Carbon Cruise.The multi-institution effort monitored ocean acidification

321、 conditions across the Gulf of Mexico to assess trends and potential impacts to coastal ecosystems.Increases in levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere that are absorbed into the ocean contribute to more acidic seawater that can be harmful to marine species,impacting fisheries and marine ecosyste

322、ms.In addition to monitoring ocean acidification in the Gulf of Mexico,scientists sampled and studied the abundance,diversity,and health of a variety of marine organisms to understand how ocean conditions are impacting their survival.NOAA scientists and partners also completed the Prediction and Res

323、earch Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic(PIRATA)Northeast Extension cruise,which serviced and redeployed buoys and other instrumentation to measure the physical characteristics of the ocean,such as air and sea temperatures,wind speed,and other parameters along 23W.Air-sea interactions in this reg

324、ion have a strong impact on weather and climate variability in surrounding countries and can be a determining factor for the prediction of extreme weather and ocean changes.Buoys in the PIRATA array provide critical real-time data for models of the Atlantic climate system,supporting the societal nee

325、d for improved global weather and climate variability predictions.These research efforts represent two examples of sustaining long-term data collection,deploying instrumentation,and furthering the understanding of the oceans physical,chemical,and biological properties.4 93.B P R E D I CT I N G F U T

326、 U R E C L I M AT E3.B Predicting Future ClimateDevelopment of a Real-time Climate Attribution Analysis Product NOAA NWS has developed a real-time climate attribution analysis product to understand how predictable and skillful sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts are to predict weather patterns and co

327、nditions two weeks to two months in the future.This analysis evaluates the skill of the most recent seasonal temperature and precipitation climate variations and utilizes a hierarchy of modeling approaches to evaluate the predictability of these anomalies.This product was recently used to show that

328、the large-scale below-normal temperatures that occurred over most of the central United States in January,February,and March 2022 were not forced by sea surface temperature anomalies and were unpredictable.The product demonstrated that the skill was low in forecasting the individual monthly anomalie

329、s for the January to March,2022 period beyond a few days lead.Analysis of this type allows NOAA to improve forecast skill for future events.The product also helps to answer questions from stakeholders about the performance of official extended-range predictions,knowledge base about the causality of

330、observed climate variations,and communicate the physical basis for predictions in the future.Diagnosis of the Extended Drought that Began at the Turn of the CenturyNOAA NWS and colleagues completed a study to analyze the enhanced drought conditions that have occurred in the western,central,and south

331、eastern United States starting in 2000.The study found that the dominant forcing of these drought conditions was the precipitation deficit,with above normal evaporation due to elevated surface temperatures playing a contributing role.The temperature and precipitation changes were attributed to concu

332、rrent global sea surface temperature anomalies,which are known to drive drought in these regions.A shift toward a wetter and cooler pattern,helping to improve drought conditions,requires a phase change in one or more of these sea surface temperature patterns.Understanding the cause of drought in the

333、 U.S.helps better inform prediction of onset,intensification,and termination of future extended duration droughts.New global forecasting capabilities for marine heatwaves can strengthen climate resilienceMarine heatwaves disrupt ocean ecosystems,cause economic losses in global fisheries,contribute to human-wildlife conflicts,and cause widespread coral bleaching events.NOAA scientists found that ex