1、2018 NOAA Science ReportNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationU.S.Department of Commerce NOAA Technical Memorandum NOAA Research Council-0012018 NOAA Science ReportHarry Cikanek,Ned Cyr,Ming Ji,Gary Matlock,Steve ThurNOAASilver Spring,MarylandFebruary 2019noaaNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERI

2、C ADMINISTRATIONNOAA Research Council2018 NOAA Science ReportHarry Cikanek,Ned Cyr,Ming Ji,Gary Matlock,Steve ThurNOAASilver Spring,MarylandFebruary 2019 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCENATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATIONNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Research Counci

3、lWilbur RossSecretaryRDML Tim Gallaudet,Ph.D.,USN Ret.,Acting NOAAAdministratorCraig N.McLeanNOAA Research Council ChairFrancisco Werner,Ph.D.NOAA Research Council Vice Chair 2018 NOAA Science Report4NOTICEThis document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States G

4、overnment.The views and opinions of the authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency or Contractor thereof.Neither the United States Government,nor Contractor,nor any of their employees,make any warranty,express or implied,or assume

5、s any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy,completeness,or usefulness of any information,product,or process disclosed,or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights.Mention of a commercial company or product does not constitute an endorsement by the National Ocean

6、ic and Atmospheric Administration.Use of information from this publication concerning proprietary products or the tests of such products for publicity or advertising purposes is not authorized.2018 NOAA Science Report5Table of ContentsForeword.8Introduction:A Snapshot of NOAAs Research and Engagemen

7、t.10Enriching Life Through Science.10Why NOAA Invests in Research.10The Portfolio Logic Model.11What Kind of Research NOAA Supports.11Where NOAA Invests in Research.12What Principles Guide NOAA Research.14How NOAA Research Transitions into R2X.16What is the Budget for NOAA Research.18Where Does it G

8、o.19Theme Chapters.22Integrated Earth System Processes and Predictions.22New Techniques and Tools to Expand Aquaculture.24Scientists and Industry Professionals Join Forces to Develop Best Practices for Finfish Aquaculture:The 2nd International Seriola Workshop.25Stock Assessment for the Main Hawaiia

9、n Islands Deep 7 Bottomfish Complex Completed.26Hawaiian Islands Cetacean Ecological Assessment Surveys 2017 Completed.26Hawaiian Monk Seal Recovery Plan:Completion of the 2017 Report on Population Status and Recovery Interventions.27New Fisheries Stock Assessment Tool Started in the Pacific Goes Gl

10、obal.28West Coast and Alaska Trawl Fisheries Seabird Cable Strike Mitigation Workshop.28First of its Kind Joint Survey Along the OR and WA Coast,Studying the Distribution and Stock Structure of Juvenile Salmon in Late Winter.29Grunts and Knocks:Ship Noise Complicates Fish Mating.29HYSPLIT Tracks SO2

11、 and Particulate Matter During Kilauea Eruption.30A Revolutionary Global Weather Model.30Experimental Model Improves Hurricane Intensity Forecasts.31Forecasting a Rare Winter Storm in Southeast U.S.31Closing the Gap Between Weather and Climate Predictions.32COASTAL Act Coupled Wave-Surge Model.33Mes

12、saging Consistent NWS Weather Forecasts:The National Blend of Models.33Slowing Ocean Motion:AMOC Enters Uncharted Territory.34Ocean Model Collaboration with the U.S.Navy.34EcoCast:A Dynamic Ocean Management Tool to Reduce Bycatch and Support.35Whales Voices Change With Age,Just Like Ours.36Environme

13、ntal and Geographic Relationships among Salmon Forage Assemblages along the Continental Shelf of the California Current.36Great Lakes Ecosystem Classification System.37National Estuarine Research Reserves(NERRS)Provide Science Platform for Coastal Resilience37 2018 NOAA Science Report6Environmental

14、Observations and Data.38Update to GRAV-D/NSRS Modernization:Use of Innovative Technology to Expand Coverage and Complete the 2022 Gravity-Based Vertical Datum.40New Buoy in Chesapeake Bay to Identify Areas Most Vulnerable to Ocean Acidification.40Machine Vision to Collect Timely Fisheries Data.41NOA

15、A Uses Unmanned Systems to Enhance Navigation.41Saildrone Makes Key Observations in Tropics for Long-Term Weather Forecasts.42Deep-Sea Benthic Surveys Inform Fishery Management Council Decisions in the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico.42NOAA Concludes the Campaign to Address Pacific monument Science,Techn

16、ology,and Ocean NEeds(CAPSTONE).43Development of High Tide Flooding Thresholds and Application to Flooding Outlooks.44Citizen Scientists.44New Atlas Reveals Patterns of Earths Microbial Diversity.44Developing the First Survey of Untrawlable Fish Habitats in Alaska.45We Heard You Were in the Area:Lis

17、tening for Right Whales.45Shining a Light on Illegal Fishing.46Photo Survey Provides Rare Look at Basking Shark Behavior.46Using Underwater Video to Examine the Functional Role of Shellfish Aquaculture and Natural Nearshore Habitats in Puget Sound,Washington.47Puget Sound Habitat Status and Trend Mo

18、nitoring.48Understanding the Value of Our Environmental Data.48New Experimental Coral Reef Laboratory.49Not Just Blowing Smoke:Spotting and Monitoring Fires from Space.49Tracking Lightning From Space:The GOES Satellites Geostationary Lightning Mapper.50Next Generation Satellites Enhance Observationa

19、l Capabilities.50When Solar Storms Attack:Space Weather and our Infrastructure.52New Polar-Orbiting Satellite for Global Weather Forecasts and Emergency Responders.53Another Climate Milestone on Mauna Loa.54Emissions of Ozone-Destroying Chemical are Increasing Again.54Annual Greenhouse Gas Index Mea

20、sures Earths Thermostat Setting.55Weather and Climate Data for Tribes.55Emissions from Personal Care Products Comparable to Tailpipe Emissions.56 Decision Science,Risk Assessment,and Risk Communication.58Launch of Ocean Acidification Information Exchange.60New Publication Evaluates Coral Reef Ecosys

21、tem Management Scenarios.60Gulf Aquamapper:NOAA Develops Tools for Aquaculture Siting in the Gulf of Mexico.61Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats.62Social Science Adds Needed Piece to the Weather Puzzle.63Fire Weather Decision Support and Incident Meteorologist Deployment.63Fishing Fami

22、lies Project.64 2018 NOAA Science Report7Meaningful Stakeholder Engagement in Fishery Management is Not Just a Dream.64State of the Climate 2017.65SARSAT:A Beacon for Help.65Installation of NOAAs Physical Oceanographic Real Time Data(PORTS)at Port of Miami Advances Maritime Commerce.66NOAA Advances

23、Precision Navigation Services to Enhance U.S.Commerce.66Climate Science Special Report Serves as Foundation to Assess Climate-Related Risks.67 Water Prediction.68Improving Flooding Forecasts in Urban Areas.70Drought Index Aids in Identifying Areas of Potential Food Insecurity.70Tracking Precipitatio

24、n to Provide Flash Flooding Forecasts at the Neighborhood Level.71NOAA Plays a Leading Role in Forecasting and Response to 2018 Florida Red Tide.72 Polar Science.74Oculus Coastal Glider in the Arctic Identifies Important Ecosystem Transition Area.76Potential for Arctic Regions and Mid-Latitude Weath

25、er Linkages.76Arctic Heat Open Science Experiment Provides Real-time Ocean Data to Global Weather and Sea Ice Modelers.77Leading the Charge in Coordinating Environmental Monitoring of Alaska Arctic Harmful Algal Blooms.77Bibliometrics.78Methodology.78Main NOAA Research Areas.80Meteorology and Atmosp

26、heric Sciences.82Marine and Freshwater Biology.84Oceanography.86Environmental Sciences.88Fisheries.90Ecology.92Geo-Sciences.94NOAAs Scientific Workforce.96Scientific Awards and Achievements.97Scientific Integrity.108Laboratory and Program Science Reviews.112Concluding Thoughts.123Glossary.124Contrib

27、utors and Acknowledgements.127 2018 NOAA Science Report8ForewordIt is a great honor to work with scientists of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA),the nations premier ocean,weather and atmospheric science agency.NOAAs research extends from the depths of the ocean to the surface

28、 of the sun.NOAA scientists work across the globe sampling the environment,developing technologies to observe the earth,discovering new species,managing our fisheries,protecting our trust natural resources,and advancing our ability to understand and more accurately predict the weather,severe storms

29、and climatic conditions.NOAAs research is bundled under two priorities in the 2018 NOAA Science Report.First is to produce the best weather prediction system in the world.This past year the finite volume on a cubed sphere dynamic core(FV3),currently in prototype mode,showed significantly better fore

30、cast skill of hurricane intensity than operational models.NOAA is also taking weather satellite technology to the next level,with the launch of GOES-17 in March 2018.To give you a sense of the power of this new technology,five days out,NOAA predicted within two miles the precise landfall of Hurrican

31、e Florence,which facilitated the safe and effective evacuation of hundreds of thousands of Carolinians.But we wont stop there.In 2018 Congress authorized the Earth Prediction Innovation Center,a community-based approach that will significantly improve upon the global forecast system model.Implementa

32、tion is already underway.Our second priority is to grow the American economy through the sustainable management of marine resources,or the“Blue Economy”.With the human consumption of protein around the world rising,marine aquaculture has become a critical industry to meet the demand.NOAA scientists

33、recognize this and developed the Gulf AquaMapper to assist operators and coastal states with smart siting of facilities.The AquaMapper is a web-based tool with multiple data layers such as shipping lanes,military operations,and marine protected areas to minimize competing uses.Efficient commerce at

34、our nations ports is also a big part of the blue economy,and NOAA science is also entering the next generation with“Precision Navigation.”In the Port of Long Beach,better real time data on long period swells led to an increase in the allowable draft by four feet,saving$10 million per year in lighter

35、ing costs and increasing the value of the cargo per vessel by$2 million.You will see in this summary report that our scientists push the boundaries of knowledge in unmanned systems,fisheries management,protected species,harmful algal blooms,coastal hazards,climate change,invasive species,and much mo

36、re.I am amazed on a daily basis by the expertise,ingenuity,and commitment to excellence that NOAA scientists and our academic and industry partners share.This report presents many stunning achievements accomplished by NOAA in 2018 that supported sustainable economic growth and saved countless lives.

37、RDML Tim Gallaudet,Ph.D.,USN Ret.Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and Acting Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere 2018 NOAA Science Report9ForewordThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA),housed within the Department of Commerce,is the natio

38、ns premier ocean,weather,and atmospheric science agency.NOAAs research extends from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun with NOAA scientists working around the clock and across the globe to serve NOAAs mission.In 2018 alone,NOAA observed never-before-seen solar storms on the surface of

39、 the sun and launched new satellites into space.Together with our Cooperative Institutes,NOAA unveiled new weather models that better predict hurricane intensity,supported public safety by forecasting where volcanic ash would travel when a volcano erupted in Hawaii,and produced tools that provide ea

40、rly warnings for drought.NOAA scientists responded to harmful algal blooms producing forecasts to warn the public what beaches red tides will affect.Tools were released to aid in opening up new areas to aquaculture and enable safe navigation into the nations busiest ports.New species and habitats we

41、re discovered at the bottom of the ocean.Through all of this work,NOAA science supports a robust U.S.economy and enhances national security.All of these achievements are made possible by NOAAs highly-skilled workforce who uphold the highest standards of scientific integrity.NOAAs scientists are cons

42、istently recognized,both domestically and internationally,as the top experts in their fields.This years NOAA Science Report highlights only a fraction of NOAAs scientific achievements.As you read through the report,I hope you will gain a better understanding of the importance NOAA research has on th

43、e economy,environment,and communities across the nation.Craig N.McLeanNOAA Research Council ChairDecember 2018 2018 NOAA Science Report10 IntroductionEnriching LifE Through SciEncEReaching from the surface of the sun to the depths of the ocean floor,the mission of the National Oceanic and Atmospheri

44、c Administration(NOAA)depends on a strong research foundation for understanding the complex systems that define our planet.This understanding ultimately provides a range of users with the information and intelligence needed to protect lives,support livelihoods,and enhance lifestyles.From providing t

45、he daily weather forecasts that help safeguard communities,to informing fisheries management that keeps our nation fed and fishermens jobs secured,NOAAs products and services affect more than one-third of Americas gross domestic product and help protect people and property.Why noAA invESTS in rESEAr

46、chNOAAs investment in research is critical to continually improving the quality,reliability,and cost-effectiveness of the products and services to end users.These products and services are developed through a dynamic engagement between the agency and its users:stakeholders communicate their needs to

47、 NOAA,sparking new research initiatives or improvements to current services,while NOAA continues to improve research and services to meet the needs of the people who depend on them.By integrating research conducted internally with work from our partners,including cooperative institutes,universities,

48、other government agencies,and the private sector,NOAA can transform basic conceptual research into the data,tools,and information our stakeholders rely on.In short,we view the concept for this investment as a focusing effort in which we balance a broad base of research investments to serve a wide di

49、versity of end users.noAAS MiSSion:SciEncE,SErvicE,And STEWArdShip1.To understand and predict changes in climate,weather,oceans and coasts.2.To share that knowledge and information with others.3.To conserve and manage coastal and marine ecosystems and resources.2018 NOAA Science Report11ThE porTfoLi

50、o Logic ModELLike an investor administering financial holdings,NOAA manages its Research and Development(R&D)portfolio to ensure that we are serving the American public effectively while appropriately balancing investments across the agencys diverse mission respon-sibilities.The strategy for doing s

51、o is defined by NOAAs portfo-lio logic model:the why,what,where,and how of NOAAs R&D investment.Bow-tie”concept borrowed from UK Met Office.hATind ofESEArchupporTSNOAAs R&D addresses the needs of the user community while advancing fundamental scientific understanding.Our R&D portfolio must allow the

52、 flexibility to consider contributions to the scientific knowledge base separately from(albeit related to)enhancing applicability.In the context of the classical treatment by Donald Stokes Stokes,1997,we strive to position our investment primarily in“Pasteurs Quadrant,”while including critical inves

53、tments aimed primarily at either advancing fundamental understanding or enhancing applications.NOAA strategically invests in a mix of research projects across the risk-reward spectrum.We pursue a range of projects,from low-risk projects that result in incremental gains(e.g.,periodic improvements to

54、our already-existing storm prediction models)to high-risk projects with high potential gains but less certainty of success(e.g.,exploratory research).This sets NOAA on the cutting edge of R&D while still ensuring that we meet the needs and expectations of our users.Donald Stokes proposed the above c

55、hart in his 1997 book Pasteurs Quadrant:Basic Science and Technological Innovation.This chart portrays that,while some research largely focuses on fundamental understanding(Bohrs quadrant upper left)or application(Edisons quadrant,lower right),it is possible for research to be highly relevant for bo

56、th fundamental understanding and real-life applications(Pasteurs quadrant,upper right).The majority of NOAAs research strives for this dual relevance as reflected in Pasteurs quadrant.“W K r noAA S 2018 NOAA Science Report12IntroductionWhErE noAA invESTS in rESEArchNOAA maintains both intramural and

57、 extramural research investments.There is not a singular formula nor operational concept for distributing research support inside and outside of the agency.Some programs invest the majority of their R&D funding internally,at labs and science centers with federal employees.Other programs invest the m

58、ajority of their funding to external R&D partners,at universities,industry,and other research institutions.Moreover,in many cases,programs invest with a distribution of R&D funds intramurally and extramurally.In the past,NOAA analyzed the balance of investment Fluharty et al.,2006;MacDonald et al.,2

59、006.Most recently,NOAA issued NOAA Administrative Order(NAO)216-115A NOAA,2016d.This guidance indicates that the principles around which the determination should be made about where to invest research funding are based on the expected time to maturity of research(for which external investments allow

60、 flexibility and course-corrections through grants and contracts),and applicability to regulatory functions(for which direct engagement between the users and researchers might be most easily accommodated through internal investments).Conceptually,this means that a balance of considerations for missi

61、on relevance,time to maturity,and need for flexibility indicate the balance of intramural and extramural investment as shown to the left.NOAA partnerships are vital to the agencys R&D efforts,allowing for collaboration with leading universities,federal agencies,private companies,NGOs,and other scien

62、ce innovators,as well as the mutually beneficial sharing of facilities,equipment,and staff expertise.Key mechanisms for partnerships include Cooperative Institute(Prospectus for Cooperative Institutes in the 21st Century-CI21NOAA,2016e)and Cooperative Science Center agreements with universities;the

63、Sea Grant Program;the National Oceanographic Partnership Program(NOPP),extramural grant programs;contracts;Cooperative Research and Development Agreements with the private sector;and more.NOAA is dedicated to building the U.S.economy and supporting U.S.businesses through its Small Business Innovatio

64、n Research(SBIR)and Technology Transfer Programs.2018 NOAA Science Report13IntroductionnoAA conTribuTES To A STrong And rESiLiEnT u.S.EconoMyNOAA is dedicated to building the U.S.economy and supporting U.S.businesses through its Small Business Innovation Research(SBIR),Cooperative Research and Devel

65、opment Agreements(CRADAs),and Technology Transfer Programs.Small Business Innovation Research(SBIR)is a highly competitive program that encourages domestic small businesses to engage with federal government in developing products and services that have potential for commercialization while being rel

66、evant to the agency mission.In fiscal year 2018,NOAA invested roughly$10 million in innovative research and development(R&D)projects to the small business community through the SBIR program.As per the SBIR legislation,all technologies developed and data produced in the NOAA SBIR program belong to th

67、e small businesses.This ensures that theres a clear path for commercialization,one of the main goals of the SBIR program.NOAA benefits from these innovative technologies through innovation and scientific advancement.More importantly,SBIR serves as an economic stimulus not only to these small busines

68、ses,but,if successfully commercialized,to the public and local communities through potential jobs created in their respective industries.Examples of funded projects include Tridentis,LLC for the design of an autonomous,green powered,mobile coastal monitor and Creare,LLC for the manual and automated

69、marine weather observations using smartphones.NOAA currently has 47 Cooperative Research and Development Agreements,or CRADAs,with private industry covering the full range of our research and development applications.A total of nine new agreements were signed in 2018,with another 16 agreements in va

70、rious stages of development.In 2018,NOAA initiated its first Facilities Use CRADA as an innovative way to allow companies to conduct research and development at NOAA facilities for work that is supportive of the Laboratory mission.In the case of the 2018 CRADA,NOAA is providing laboratory space to a

71、 U.S.company for work in support of our aquaculture mission.NOAA has also extended its five CRADAs with the major U.S.Cloud Services Providers in support of the NOAA Big Data Project.NOAAs vast wealth of data represents a substantial untapped economic opportunity.The NOAA Big Data Project(BDP)was cr

72、eated to explore the potential benefits of storing copies of these data in the Cloud to allow computing directly without requiring further costly distribution.Such an approach could help form new lines of business and economic growth while making NOAAs data more easily accessible to the American pub

73、lic.NOAA has a portfolio of 19 technologies that are currently under patent protection and either have been licensed or are available for licensing to industry.For example,NOAA offered up its patented NOy Cavity Ringdown technology to industry through the Small Business Innovation Research(SBIR)prog

74、ram in an innovative approach to commercialization.A small,Boulder-based company,High Precision Devices(HPD)won the contract to commercialize the device and received a follow-up award to generate a commercial prototype.The technology,which was developed at NOAA Research,will ideally provide a solid

75、revenue stream both domestically and overseas for HPD.In addition to the patent portfolio,NOAA actively promotes 27 royalty-free technologies that are available to industry.2018 NOAA Science Report14IntroductionWhAT principLES guidE noAA rESEArchNOAA strives to direct,formulate,and evaluate all agen

76、cy research in light of the following eight principles through the NOAA Administrative Order(NAO)216-115A:mission alignment,transition readiness(NAO 216-105B NOAA,2016c),research balance,optimized partnerships,sustained facilities and infrastructure,workforce excellence,scientific integrity,and acco

77、untability.These principles,grounded in communication within the agency and between our partners,work together to uphold NOAAs high-quality research,development,services,and products.noAAS TWo prioriTy objEcTivESNOAA is supporting the Department of Commerces Strategic Plan through two priority objec

78、tives NOAA 2018:1.Minimize the impacts of extreme weather and water events by implementing the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act,with the underlying goal to regain world leadership in weather modeling.2.Accelerating the American Blue Economy,with specific focus on reducing the nations

79、seafood trade deficit through expanded marine aquaculture.2018 NOAA Science Report15IntroductionALL Six noAA LinE officES providE A uniquE conTribuTion To noAA r&dThE nATionAL MArinE fiShEriES SErvicE(nMfS),also known as NOAA Fisheries,is responsible for the stewardship of the nations ocean resource

80、s and their habitat.Their main goals are to ensure productive and sustainable fisheries,safe sources of seafood,the recovery and conservation of protected resources,and healthy ecosystemsall backed by sound science and an ecosystem-based approach to management.The sound science behind these goals is

81、 largely carried out by NMFSs regional science centers and laboratories.ThE nATionAL ocEAn SErvicE(noS)works to provide science-based solutions through collaborative partnerships to address evolving economic,environmental,and social pressures on our ocean and coasts.NOS program offices address the s

82、cience of ocean and coastal resources,tides,the complexity of Earths surface,coastal resilience,nautical chart making,marine sanctuaries,responses to oil and chemical spills,and ocean observation and monitoring.ThE nATionAL EnvironMEnTAL SATELLiTE,dATA,And inforMATion SErvicE(nESdiS)aims to provide

83、timely access to global environmental data from satellites and other sources to promote,protect and enhance the Nations economy,security,environment and quality of life.Their research activities involve environmental satellite remote sensing,operating the NOAA National Data Centers,providing data an

84、d information services including Earth system monitoring,performing official assessments of the environment,and conducting related research.ThE officE of ocEAnic And ATMoSphEric rESEArch(oAr),also known as NOAA Research,seeks to use rigorous research to better understand the complex systems that sup

85、port our planet.OAR runs several NOAA research laboratories and the National Sea Grant College Program,as well as heading offices focused in ocean exploration,climate,weather and air quality,unmanned aircraft systems(UAS),and ocean acidification.ThE nATionAL WEAThEr SErvicE(nWS)works to provide weat

86、her,water,and climate data,as well as forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy.They conduct R&D activities to collect these data and perform the necessary predictions to create a weather-ready nation.ThE officE of MArinE And AviATion opEr

87、ATionS(oMAo)does not have an internal R&D agenda,but instead supports the research of other line offices through providing,managing,and operating the aircraft and marine vessels necessary to carry out this research.2018 NOAA Science Report16IntroductionhoW noAA rESEArch TrAnSiTionS inTo opErATionS,A

88、ppLicATionS,coMMErciALizATion,And uTiLizATion(r2x)It is essential to ensure there is transition of research and development to maintain our capability of meeting mission requirements across all NOAA missions.In the Fiscal Year(FY)2018,a total of$23 million was awarded to OAR to support the accelerat

89、ion of mature short-and long-term R&D activities to the“mission-qualified”level(Readiness Level 8,RL 8)in one to three years.This funding is split between two programs:the Joint Technology Transfer Initiative(JTTI)and Ocean-Joint Technology Transfer Initiative(O-JTTI).Created by the Weather Research

90、 and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017(P.L.115-25),the JTTI ensures continuous development and transition of the latest scientific and technological advances into operations of the NOAA NWS.O-JTTI was modeled after JTTI,but with focus on transitions to operations and applications supporting a blue

91、economy.Combined,the two programs will improve the process and provide the needed resources to accelerate the transition of R&D outputs into NOAAs operations,applications,commercialization,and other uses for societal benefits,which we call R2X.The full description of NOAAs re-engineered transition p

92、rocess is defined in NAO 216-105B.In the end,these process and resource improvements will continue to strengthen the culture of transitioning R&D at NOAA.ExAMpLES of rESEArch TrAnSiTion Currently,NOAA line offices are conducting a limited range of highly successful transition activities.The activiti

93、es listed below highlight just a few of the R&D projects that have been selected to move from research to operations,applications,and policy.ShorT-TErM inundATion forEcASTing for TSunAMiSUsing tsunami measurements from the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami(DART)system,NOAA Research and

94、NOAA NWS developed Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis(SIFT)to forecast tsunami wave arrival times,amplitudes,and flooding.Development started with funding through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program and was then accelerated under the Emergency Supplemental Appropriations Act o

95、f 2005 in response to the December 26,2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.SIFT has been implemented as the operational forecast system at both of NOAAs Tsunami Warning Centers(TWCs).The system provides real-time assessment of tsunami potential by interpreting DART measurements and converting the data into qua

96、ntitative tsunami forecast for vulnerable communities along the U.S.coastline.SIFT helps TWCs personnel determine tsunami potential and predict coastal impact based on real-time tsunami measurements,eliminating guess-work in tsunami warning operations.2018 NOAA Science Report17IntroductiondynAMicAL

97、corE for ThE nExT gEnErATion gLobAL prEdicTion SySTEMIn order to improve forecasts of severe weather to protect lives and property,NOAA chose Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core(FV3)as the new engine to run the Next Generation Global Prediction System project(NGGPS).NGGPS will upgrade the curr

98、ent operational Global Forecast System(GFS)to run as a unified,fully-coupled system in NOAAs Environmental Modeling System infrastructure.It is currently being implemented into GFS by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction with a planned date of 2019 to be fully operational for globa

99、l forecasts,improving forecast accuracy and providing long lead time.For example,FV3 shows considerable improvements in forecasting the most extreme winds and rainfall in a hurricane as well as more reliably predicts rapid intensification of hurricanes.NOAA continues to develop new modeling technolo

100、gy,including experimental global cloud-resolving models,models for statistical prediction on scales of weeks to decades,and new and improved model algorithms to lay the foundations for future forecast improvements.juvEniLE SpoTTEd SEATrouT pErforMAncE MEASurE for EvErgLAdES rESTorATionThe saltwater

101、recreational fishery adjacent to the Florida Everglades generates approximately$880 million and more than 6,000 jobs per year.This area includes Florida Bay,which not only supports a substantial recreational fishing industry within its waters,but also serves as a nursery ground for many of the adjac

102、ent commercial and recreational fishery species,such as spotted seatrout and coral reef fishes.The commercial and recreational fishery species within Florida Bay will be affected by Everglades restoration as it aims to restore Florida Bay to a more natural state.Scientists from NOAA Research and NOA

103、A Fisheries developed,and delivered to the U.S.Army Corps of Engineers-South Florida Water Management District,a performance measure that quantitatively describes how juvenile sportfish in Florida Bay respond to water quality and habitat.The resulting juvenile spotted seatrout Habitat Sustainability

104、 Index(HSI)model can be applied to evaluate the impact and benefits to sportfish of proposed restoration projects that make incremental advancements towards Everglades restoration.Thus,it will ensure that Everglade Restoration provides benefits to human society by increasing the sustainability and h

105、ealth of fishery populations in Florida Bay.METEoroLogicAL ASSiMiLATion dATA ingEST SySTEMThe Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System(MADIS)is a global database and delivery system developed by NOAA Research in 2001 and transitioned into NOAA NWS operations in 2015.MADIS serves the greater me

106、teorological community by supporting the collection,integration,quality control,and distribution of NOAA and non-NOAA observations.MADIS continues to grow and improve through version releases each year.For 2018 the major improvements were to:the National Mesonet Program(an observational weather netw

107、ork),Hydrometeorological Automated Data System,and the Federal Highway Administrations(USDOT)Clarus Road Weather Information System.The World Meteorological Organization has also designated MADIS as the delivery system for sharing Global Aircraft Meteorological DAta Relay(AMDAR)data among all meteor

108、ological services worldwide.These datasets improve forecast accuracy by providing higher density and higher quality atmospheric observations from public and non-public sources.2018 NOAA Science Report18IntroductionWhAT iS noAAS rESEArch And dEvELopMEnT budgETNOAA dedicated$673 million,or approximate

109、ly 10 percent of the agencys total budget,to R&D in Fiscal Year 2018(FY18,with R&D defined as all research and development activities outside of facilities and equipment purchases).This continues a five-year trend of increased R&D expenditures,highlighting NOAAs efforts to keep up with increased sta

110、keholder demand for environmental intelligence and services in the face of a changing planet.OAR68%NOS 14%NMFS 10%NESDIS 5%NWS 3%NOAA FY18 Enacted R&D Budget by Line Office Note:OMAO tracks management and operation of aircraft and vessels in support of Line Office R&D as Equipment and therefore is n

111、ot displayed here.2018 hurricAnE SuppLEMEnTAL r&d AcTiviTiESResearch and development activities from the Hurricane Supplemental,formally known as the Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Relief of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 are planned to accelerate the implementation of NOAAs existing im

112、provement plans by one to three years in four relevant focus areas:1)weather forecasting,2)hurricane intensity forecasting,3)flood forecasting and mitigation and,4)data assimilation from ocean and satellite observing platforms.Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Relief is referenced in the Publ

113、ic Law,page 3(Division B,Subdivision 1).2018 NOAA Science Report19IntroductionNOAA R&D Extramural vs Intramural$800$700s r$600a l l o$500D fo$400sno i l$300l iM$200$100$0FY18EnactedFiscal Year(FY)ExtramuralIntramuralFY12FY13FY14FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19EnactedEnactedEnactedEnactedEnactedEnactedEnacted Pr

114、esidentsBudgetWhErE doES iT goApproximately 53 percent of NOAAs FY18 R&D budget went to internal R&D efforts,including those at NOAA labs and science centers within the line offices.The remaining 47 percent was set aside for extramural research,enabling partnerships and collaborations with non-NOAA

115、entities.Over the past five years,NOAA has been dedicating an increasing percentage of our resources to extramural research,which shows the importance NOAA places on external partnerships in fulfilling our R&D mission.Note:All graphs exclude facilities and equipment from R&D budget calculations.2018

116、 NOAA Science Report20IntroductionrEfErEncESFluharty,D.,M.Abbott,R.Davis,M.Donahue,S.Madsen,T.Quinn,J.Rice,and J.Sutinen(2006),Evolving an Ecosystem Approach to Science and Management Throughout NOAA and its Partners,85 pp,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Washington,D.C.MacDonald,A.E.

117、,R.Fulton,M.Kenny,S.Murawski,P.Ortner,A.M.Powell,A.Sen,and L.Uccellini(2006),Research Location in NOAA:Physical and Social Sciences,72 pp,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Washington,D.C.NOAA(2015),2015 Strategic Guidance Memorandum,p.9,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,W

118、ashington,D.C.NOAA(2016a),2016 Strategic Guidance Memorandum,p.8,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Washington,D.C.NOAA(2016b),FY2017 NOAA Budget Summary,p.38,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Washington,D.C.NOAA(2016c),NOAA Administrative Order 216-105B-Policy of Research

119、 and Development Transitions,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Washington,D.C.NOAA(2016d),NOAA Administrative Order 216-115A-Research and Development in NOAA,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Washington,D.C.NOAA(2016e),Prospectus for Cooperative Institutes in the 21st Cen

120、tury(CI21),p.24,Washington,D.C.NOAA(2017),2017 Strategic Guidance Memorandum,p.9,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Washington,D.C.NOAA(2018),NOAA by the Numbers,p.3,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Washington,D.C.Stokes,D.E.(1997),Pasteurs quadrant:Basic science and tech

121、nological innovation,Brookings Institution Press.2018 NOAA Science Report21IntroductionU.S.Department of Commerce(DOC)Secretary Wilbur Ross visited the Office for Coastal Management in Charleston,South Carolina in late October 2018.Acting Administrator RDML Tim Gallaudet led the meeting which includ

122、ed discussions about aquaculture,ports,marine debris,and NOAA NOS tools developed to help coastal leaders make science-based decisions.Left to right:Nicholas Schmidt(NOAA Office of Coastal Management),NOAA Office of Coastal Management Director Dr.Jeff Payne,Dr.James Morris(NOAA National Centers for

123、Coastal Ocean Science),Sarah Latshaw(NOAA Office of Response and Restoration),Kyle Ward(NOAA Office of the Coast Survey),DOC Secretary Wilbur Ross,Acting NOAA Administrator RDML(ret.)Dr.Tim Gallaudet,Dr.Erica Towle(NOAA NOS Policy Coordination Officer),Michael Platt(DOC Assistant Secretary for Legis

124、lative and Intergovernmental Affairs).2018 NOAA Science Report22 Integrated Earth System Processes&PredictionsNOAA has a broad set of predictive responsibilities,reflected in its large and highly diverse modeling enterprise.Models are essential tools for enhancing scientific understanding,making pre

125、dictions and projections,and ensuring informed decision-making to meet NOAAs mission needs.Model development and improvements depend on a continued understanding of earth system processes,developed through targeted field and laboratory studies,as well as the exploitation of new types and sources of

126、data.This NOAA Science Report highlights a small but representative fraction of the critical work NOAA does every day.The research depicted in this chapter highlights some of the data,tools,products,and services that NOAAs research activities provide,giving us critical insights into the complex and

127、diverse integrated earth systems that impact our country and our planet.Accelerate the Blue EconomyTested a new nature-based shoreline protection technique to protect coastal communities from hazards.Expanded aquaculture production through seaweed farming and improved river water quality.Strengthene

128、d economic and environmental sustainability of fisheries through use of a dynamic management strategy.Prepare for Extreme WeatherIncreased skill in forecasting hurricane intensity through the development of two new models.Improved accuracy and lead time on subseasonal forecasts due to deeper underst

129、anding of the link between atmospheric conditions in tropics and weather events in U.S.Estimated the transport and dispersion of harmful sulfur dioxide and volcanic ash during Kilauea volcanic eruption.2018 NOAA Science Report23Selected Accomplishments New Techniques and Tools to Expand Aquaculture

130、Scientists and Industry Professionals Join Forces to Develop Best Practices for Finfish Aquaculture:The 2nd International Seriola Workshop Stock Assessment for the Main Hawaiian Islands Deep 7 Bottomfish Complex Completed Hawaiian Islands Cetacean Ecological Assessment Surveys 2017 Completed Hawaiia

131、n Monk Seal Recovery Plan:Completion of the 2017 Report on Population Status and Recovery Interventions New Fisheries Stock Assessment Tool Started in the Pacific Goes Global West Coast and Alaska Trawl Fisheries Seabird Cable Strike Mitigation Workshop First of its Kind Joint Survey Along the OR an

132、d WA Coast,Studying the Distribution and Stock Structure of Juvenile Salmon in Late Winter Grunts and Knocks:Ship Noise Complicates Fish Mating HYSPLIT Tracks SO2 and Particulate Matter During Kilauea Eruption A Revolutionary Global Weather Model Experimental Model Improves Hurricane Intensity Forec

133、asts Forecasting a Rare Winter Storm in Southeast U.S.Closing the Gap Between Weather and Climate Predictions COASTAL Act Coupled Wave-Surge Model Messaging Consistent NWS Weather Forecasts:The National Blend of Models Slowing Ocean Motion:AMOC Enters Uncharted Territory Ocean Model Collaboration wi

134、th the U.S.Navy EcoCast:A Dynamic Ocean Management Tool to Reduce Bycatch and Support Whales Voices Change With Age,Just Like Ours Environmental and Geographic Relationships among Salmon Forage Assemblages along the Continental Shelf of the California Current Great Lakes Ecosystem Classification Sys

135、tem National Estuarine Research Reserves(NERRS)Provide Science Platform for Coastal ResilienceIntegrated earth SyStem ProceSSeSenVIronmentaL oBSerVatIonSdecISIon ScIenceWater PredIctIonPoLar ScIence 2018 NOAA Science Report24Integrated Earth System Processes and PredictionsnEW TEchniquES And TooLS T

136、o ExpAnd AquAcuLTurENOAA is developing new techniques and tests to expand aquaculture production.Researchers with NOAA Fisheries have been helping aquaculturists,notably,GreenWave Organizations Thimble Island Ocean Farm,develop culturing strategies to grow a new crop:sugar kelp.Sugar kelp is being d

137、eveloped for a variety of uses,from food to potential biofuels as well to diversify the portfolio for shellfish growers and others in the seafood sector.Aquatic plant farming,primarily seaweed,also represents a significant sector of global aquaculture production(30.1 million metric tons,valued at$11

138、.6 billion).Seaweed farming is just now being established in the U.S.and shows promise to become an important contributor to future U.S.marine aquaculture production.Researchers are helping this company and its academic partner,the University of Connecticut,develop techniques for growing the kelp ac

139、ross its entire life cycle from spore culture to maturity and harvesting strategies.Developing new crops is not the only way to expand aquaculture.When the sewage treatment plant on Connecticuts Mystic River was upgraded in 2015,few residents imagined local shellfish farmers might benefit,let alone

140、oyster and clam growers across the country.Now this is a possibility,depending on the results of a novel water quality-testing project led by New Hampshire Sea Grant in partnership with Connecticut Sea Grant which could open nearly 800 acres now off limits for commercial shellfishing.While river wat

141、er quality improved following the treatment plant upgrades,researchers have to demonstrate that levels of harmful bacteria and viruses in the water meet public health safety standards before currently-closed areas can be opened to harvest.Sea Grants work in the Mystic River supports Connecticuts she

142、llfish industry,which generates more than$30 million in farm-gate sales annually and provides more than 300 jobs statewide.Test results thus far show favorable results,and this method could ultimately be adopted by shellfish managers working under National Shellfish Sanitation Program regulations.“F

143、or shellfish farmers,the implications are huge,because it could increase the size of our growing areas,”Steve Plant,Connecticut Cultured Oysters.A researcher at NOAAs Milford Laboratory develops culture strategies for sugar kelp.New Hampshire and Connecticut Sea Grant test water quality to open new

144、areas for commercial shellfishing 2018 NOAA Science Report25Integrated earth SyStem ProceSSeSenVIronmentaL oBSerVatIonSdecISIon ScIenceWater PredIctIonPoLar ScIenceSciEnTiSTS And induSTry profESSionALS join forcES To dEvELop bEST prAcTicES for finfiSh AquAcuLTurE:ThE 2nd inTErnATionAL SErioLA WorKSh

145、opAquaculture has been identified as a priority area for NOAA Fisheries.Fish in the genus Seriola are highly desirable fishes that enter the food supply through recreational and commercial fishing and now through aquaculture.They can be found on seafood restaurant menus,commonly sold under the names

146、 of yellowtail and amberjack.They are also a mainstay of sushi restaurants where the same species have Japanese names such as Hiramasa,Hamachi,or Kampachi.Seriola species are important aquaculture species in Japan,Mexico,Chile,Australia,and in the E.U.In the U.S.,Seriola are commercially cultured in

147、 Hawaii,and large-scale offshore fish farming of these species is anticipated in southern California and in the Gulf of Mexico.To advance the culture of these species,NOAA scientists and collaborators have sequenced the Seriola genome and have used genomic and physiological approaches to improve aqu

148、aculture procedures.California Sea Grant and NOAA Fisheries hosted the 2nd Seriola Workshop that brought together the research and culture community to discuss research progress,identify routes of collaboration,and coordinate synergistic projects for breeding,rearing,and feeding of yellowtail,amberj

149、acks and related Seriola species in culture.This workshop formed several new domestic and international collaborations that will be better able to address these research priorities and more rapidly benefit commercial Seriola culture in the U.S.and globally.The Greater Amberjack(Seriola dumerili)is a

150、 commercially and recreationally valuable fish.NOAAs Southwest Fisheries Science Center and California Sea Grant hosted the 2nd Seriola Workshop to develop best practices for finfish aquaculture.2018 NOAA Science Report26Integrated Earth System Processes and PredictionsSTocK ASSESSMEnT for ThE MAin

151、hAWAiiAn iSLAndS dEEp 7 boTToMfiSh coMpLEx coMpLETEd In November 2017,the recent benchmark assessment for the Main Hawaiian Islands(MHI)Deep 7 bottomfish complex,seven species that are a focus of fishery management,underwent stock assessment review.The new benchmark assessment includes a number of i

152、mprovements over prior assessments.This was the first inclusion of information from the bottomfish fishery-independent survey to incorporate underwater camera technology and a partnership with local commercial fishers.For the first time,workshops were convened with the fishers to better understand t

153、he historical catch and effort time series.The assessment improved upon the previous methods by combining commercial landings data that had been used in previous stock assessments with video surveys of sensitive areas for fishing years 1949-2015.The new MHI Deep 7 Bottomfish stock assessment was del

154、ivered to the Western Pacific Fishery Management Council for consideration by the Councils Science and Statistical Committee.The assessments findings were positive and contribute to better management of the fishery;the stock was not found to be overfished,nor was overfishing present.The NOAA Pacific

155、 Islands Fisheries Science Center developed a new stock assessment for the Main Hawaiian Islands Deep 7 bottomfish complex.hAWAiiAn iSLAndS cETAcEAn EcoLogicAL ASSESSMEnT SurvEyS 2017 coMpLETEdThe Hawaiian Islands Cetacean Ecological Assessment Surveys(HICEAS)assess marine mammal abundance to better

156、 manage and preserve these populations as required under the Marine Mammal Protection Act(MMPA).The survey took place from July 6 to December 1,2017 aboard NOAA Research Vessels Oscar Elton Sette and Reuben Lasker spanning 179 days-at-sea across both ships.The survey collected whale and seabird spec

157、ies abundance and habitat information for the recently expanded Papahnaumokukea Marine National Monument.Additionally,it provided new abundance estimates for false killer whales in support of the False Killer Whale Take-Reduction Plan(TRP),as well as for all cetacean species as required under the MM

158、PA.The survey also collected updated abundance and distribution data for large whale,sea turtle,and seabird species listed under the Endangered Species Act.This data was used to update whale and seabird assessments and evaluate whether bycatch rates in U.S.fisheries are sustainable under the MMPA an

159、d Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Reauthorization Act.This spinner dolphin was spotted during the Hawaiian Island Cetacean Ecological Assessment Surveys conducted by NOAAs Pacific Island Fisheries Science Center.2018 NOAA Science Report27Integrated earth SyStem ProceSSeSenVIronmentaL oBSerVatIonSdecISIon S

160、cIenceWater PredIctIonPoLar ScIencehAWAiiAn MonK SEAL rEcovEry pLAn:coMpLETion of ThE 2017 rEporT on popuLATion STATuS And rEcovEry inTErvEnTionSThe Population Summary for Hawaiian Monk Seals in 2017 builds on long term datasets with the addition of innovative analyses that estimate reproductive rat

161、es and give a status update showing some positive signs for Hawaiian monk seal recovery,an endangered species.The range-wide population estimate for 2017 was 1345,which is slightly lower,but within the range of variation of the abundance estimated in 2016.The overall population trend is increasing,s

162、howing a 2 percent annual growth rate since 2013(when range-wide estimates were initiated).This positive trend was largely due to multiple years of improved juvenile survival in the Northwest Hawaiian Islands(NWHI),an important turn-around from previous trends at many NWHI sites.Populations in the m

163、ain Hawaiian Islands(MHI)have been stable in recent years,with a slight increase in the number of individuals identified and number of pups born in the main islands in 2017.New methodology incorporating citizen science data helped to estimate reproductive rates in the MHI population,which showed hig

164、her fertility than anywhere else in the species range.While the current numbers are encouraging,great effort is still required to recover the monk seal population.The Population Summary also details the efforts of NOAA scientists to mitigate survival threats through life-saving interventions(such as

165、 disentangling animals from debris,removing fish hooks,translocating,and rehabilitating animals);71 interventions were conducted during NWHI field camps,and 22 interventions were conducted in the MHI.These actions and other program activities,such as removing entangling debris from beaches,continue

166、to contribute significantly to recovery at both the individual seal and population level.The Population Summary for Hawaiian Monk Seals from the NOAA Pacific Islands Fishery Science Center shows positive signs for Hawaiian monk seal recovery.2018 NOAA Science Report28Integrated Earth System Processe

167、s and PredictionsnEW fiShEriES STocK ASSESSMEnT TooL STArTEd in ThE pAcific goES gLobALNOAA Fisheries released a new,widely available,open-source modelling software for stock assessment:“Just Another Bayesian Biomass Assessment”(JABBA)can be applied to improve fisheries management worldwide.Stock as

168、sessments provide information that serves as the basis for domestic and international fishery regulation.JABBA has already been applied in stock assessments of sharks,tuna,and billfishes around the world.JABBA presents a unifying,flexible framework for biomass dynamic modelling,runs quickly,and gene

169、rates reproducible stock status estimates and diagnostic tools.As a case study,JABBA is applied to the 2017 assessment input data for South Atlantic swordfish(Xiphias gladius).We envision that JABBA will become a widely used,open-source stock assessment tool,readily improved and modified by the glob

170、al scientific community.JABBA is expected to allow better stocks assessments for highly migratory species which improves the ability to manage those species.NOAA s Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center releases a new tool for stock assessment,“Just Another Bayesian Biomass Assessment.”WEST coAST

171、And ALASKA TrAWL fiShEriES SEAbird cAbLE STriKE MiTigATion WorKShopSeabirds can strike trawl cables during fishing operations resulting in injury or death of the seabirds.Seabird strike incidents can also have negative economic impacts on the fishing industry.Seabird mortality could lead to the loss

172、 of fishing opportunities due to the incidental take of an endangered seabird species,a ban on data cables,that increase fishing efficiency,or litigation from environmental groups.In order to protect seabirds in U.S.West Coast and Alaskan waters from potentially harmful interactions with commercial

173、fishing operations,NOAA Fisheries partnered with the U.S.Fish and Wildlife Service,Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission,Oregon Sea Grant,Washington Sea Grant,and stakeholders from the fishing industry to hold a workshop that resulted in the development of five strategies with potential to impr

174、ove seabird protection.A few of the proposed methods include:a device to decrease the height of the wire;deterrents or sprinklers to spray water on the trawl lines and discourage birds from flying near them;and the use of cable fairings or ribbons to provide additional visual cues about the presence

175、 of the wire.The results of the workshop were already put in practice as some commercial vessels began voluntarily testing these strategies in the spring of 2018.A NOAA Technical Memorandum that describes the fives strategies has been released to help the fishing industry and scientists in the U.S.a

176、nd around the world develop effective seabird cable-strike mitigation strategies.NOAAs Northwest Fisheries Science Center,together with Oregon and Washington Sea Grant,developed strategies to minimize seabird cable strikes.2018 NOAA Science Report29Integrated earth SyStem ProceSSeSenVIronmentaL oBSe

177、rVatIonSdecISIon ScIenceWater PredIctIonPoLar ScIencefirST of iTS Kind joinT SurvEy ALong ThE or And WA coAST,STudying ThE diSTribuTion And STocK STrucTurE of juvEniLE SALMon in LATE WinTErIn a first survey of its kind,NOAA Fisheries surveyed the Oregon and Washington coasts for juvenile salmon in l

178、ate winter.The winter period is of considerable interest because mortality on juvenile salmon is believed to be high in winter due to low prey abundance,and physical conditions in winter influence the composition and abundance of the prey available in spring.This study allowed for an examination of

179、distribution and stock structure of salmon during this critical,less studied time period.The advanced technologies afforded by the Fisheries Survey Vessel Shimada enabled an additional study that examined the habitat structure of the ecosystem including physics,krill,forage fishes,salmon,and marine

180、predators during winter.This collaborative effort sets the stage for future research efforts on the West Coast of the U.S.Proposed research directions include studies that enable the examination of ecosystem-level processes such as predator-prey dynamics across space and time and their relationships

181、 to oceanographic conditions.A Marine Autonomous Recording Unit(MARU)used by scientists at NOAAs Northeast Fisheries Science Center to record sound on the ocean floor.NOAAs Northwest Fisheries Science Center and Southwest Fisheries Science Center survey the Oregon and Washington coasts for juvenile

182、salmon.grunTS And KnocKS:Ship noiSE coMpLicATES fiSh MATingNOAA scientists studying sounds made by Atlantic cod and haddock at spawning sites in the Gulf of Maine found that vessel traffic noise reduces the distance over which these animals can communicate with each other.As a result,daily behavior,

183、feeding,mating,and socializing during critical biological periods for these commercially and ecologically important fish may be altered.Ambient sounds include animal vocalization,physical sounds such as wind and water movement or geological activity,and human-produced sound from ships and marine con

184、struction.Many marine animals use ambient sound to navigate,to choose where to settle,or to modify their daily behaviors including breeding,feeding,and socializing.Lower-level,chronic exposure to increased ambient sound from human activities,such as vessel traffic,is one of the most widespread,yet p

185、oorly understood,factors that could be changing fish behavior.If a fish cannot hear as well as it needs to,then sound signals from other fish can be lost,compromised,or misinterpreted in ways that can cause a change in behavior.Since Atlantic cod,for example,vocalize to attract mates and listen for

186、predators,not hearing those signals could potentially reduce reproductive success and survival.2018 NOAA Science Report30Integrated Earth System Processes and PredictionshySpLiT TrAcKS So2 And pArTicuLATE MATTEr during KiLAuEA ErupTionDuring the Kilauea eruption,NOAA Researchs Hybrid Single-Particle

187、 Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory(HYSPLIT)model provided estimates of the transport and dispersion of harmful sulfur dioxide(SO2)and volcanic ash in the air.This vital information allowed emergency responders to make evacuation and other safety decisions by estimating when plumes of toxic gas would

188、drift over population centers and where volcanic ash in the atmosphere would present a hazard for aircrafts.NOAA Research scientists are currently investigating new means to more accurately estimate concentrations of chemicals released during volcanic eruptions by combining SO2 measurements taken do

189、wnwind from the volcano with forecasts from the HYSPLIT model,incorporating the derived data and re-running HYSPLIT to provide forecast SO2 concentration.The aim is to develop an automated system that assimilates actual measurements with calculated concentrations and transition it to NOAA NWS for op

190、erational use in support of forecasting.This volcanic ash research could result in decreased fuel consumption and reduced delays in flight arrival times for the airline industry thanks to guidance from more precise dispersion forecasts.The economic impact of SO2 is measurable in terms of population

191、health,lost productivity,and lost wages.In addition to tracking SO2,NOAA is a contributor to the Interagency Vog Dashboard,a resource designed to forecast and track vog,the volcanic equivalent of smog created when sulfur dioxide from the volcano reacts with carbon dioxide,water vapor,and sunlight.A

192、simulated satellite image from a global experimental 3-km simulation in fvGFS produced by NOAAs Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.NOAAs Air Resources Laboratory tracked ash plumes and sulfur dioxide from the Kilauea volcanic eruption.Photo credit:USGSA rEvoLuTionAry gLobAL WEAThEr ModELNOAAs new

193、est weather prediction tool,the Next Generation Global Prediction System(NGGPS),will dramatically improve U.S.operational weather and hurricane forecasting.Powered by the efficient and more comprehensive Finite-Volume on a Cubed Sphere(FV3)dynamic core,NGGPS provides a new level of accuracy to weath

194、er forecasts.NOAA continues to develop FV3-based global prediction models.During the 2017 hurricane season,the NOAA fvGFS,the FV3-powered prototype for the NGGPS,showed significantly better forecasts of hurricane intensity than current operational models,such as the current Global Forecast System(GF

195、S)or the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)model.High-resolution versions of fvGFS,using global-to-regional modeling methods developed at NOAA that allow the model to zoom-in on a region of the world,show even better prediction of Atlantic hurricane strength,nearly matching th

196、e accuracy of the best operational models used for hurricane forecasting.A second high-resolution version,zoomed-in over the contiguous U.S.,shows promise as the basis of a unified system for both storm-scale and global modeling.2018 NOAA Science Report31Integrated earth SyStem ProceSSeSenVIronmenta

197、L oBSerVatIonSdecISIon ScIenceWater PredIctIonPoLar ScIenceExpEriMEnTAL ModEL iMprovES hurricAnE inTEnSiTy forEcASTSThrough the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project(HFIP),NOAA continues to improve the accuracy of hurricane forecasts with applied research using advanced computer models.For the 2018

198、 hurricane season,operational and real-time experimental models at NOAA have performed exceedingly well as demonstrated by results for Hurricanes Lane,Florence,and Michael.For Hurricane Lane,the experimental Finite-Volume on a Cubed Sphere Global Forecast System(fvGFS)was one of the best performers

199、for track forecast guidance.The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting(HWRF)model predicted the rapid intensification of Hurricane Michael at least 60 hours in advance.The experimental basin scale HWRF-B model was run in parallel with operational hurricane models during the 2018 Atlantic hurrica

200、ne season.In addition to the use of aircraft data for initialization,the experimental system was coupled with an advanced ocean model and tracked each hurricane at a very fine resolution(1.5 km).HWRF-B outperformed the operational model HWRF,especially during peak hurricane season when Hurricanes Fl

201、orence,Helene,and Isaac were all active at the same time.HWRF-B outperformed the operational HWRF by at least 20-30 percent in predicting intensity of these three hurricanes at longer forecast lead times.Further,HWRF-B improves upon HWRF in its ability to track multiple storms at the same time which

202、 enables the prediction of realistic storm-storm interactions and,thus,maximum intensity and storm structure.This ability to track multiple storms will be used in the next generation Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System(HAFS),under development and transitioned to the FV3 unified forecasting system

203、(FV3-UFS),improving our ability to better forecast hurricane intensity.Left:The experimental basin-scale HWRF system from NOAAs Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory and Environmental Modeling Center forecasted realistic radar reflectivity and storm structure days in advance of Hurric

204、ane Florences approach to North Carolina.forEcASTing A rArE WinTEr STorM in SouThEAST u.S.In January 2018 a significant winter storm struck northern Florida and south Georgia,a rare event that only occurs once every 25-50 years.With schools scheduled to return from winter break,city and county manag

205、ers in the region required an accurate forecast to determine whether or not to close schools,and local government offices.High resolution model guidance accurately predicted that the storm would develop just west of Tallahassee,leading to potentially significant impacts on local roadways.The North A

206、merican Model(NAM)was used at longer lead times and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh(HRRR)model was used during the last 12-24 hours.Consistent guidance helped forecasters confidently provide decision support services to area emergency managers and helped decision-makers make timely decisions on sc

207、hool and government closures,fulfilling NOAAs mission to protect life and property.Right:The warnings and advisories issued(top)matched the areas where snow fell(bottom).2018 NOAA Science Report32Integrated Earth System Processes and PredictionscLoSing ThE gAp bETWEEn WEAThEr And cLiMATE prEdicTionS

208、Historically,there has been a gap in predictive skill between two weeks and three months into the future-the subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)period that spans the continuum from weather to climate timeframes.Predictions on timescales between weather and climate can help energy companies determine how mu

209、ch power to produce to meet demands for upcoming months,assist water resource managers controlling reservoir levels ahead of upcoming water use,and help farmers understand which crops to plant the following season and whether to buy crop insurance.Through cutting-edge research and development,NOAA i

210、s gradually improving the accuracy and lead time of S2S forecasts.Predictions in this time period are a major challenge due to the inherent unpredictability of the atmosphere beyond two weeks.Now,NOAA-funded scientists have developed new insights about long-distance relationships between particular

211、atmospheric conditions in the tropics and weather events in the U.S.,which helps fill the gap in forecasters ability to make more accurate predictions during S2S timescales.This new research,part of NOAA Researchs S2S Prediction Task Force,builds on ongoing activities within NOAA labs and operationa

212、l centers.Specifically,scientists at Colorado State University(CSU)found that the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO),a series of eastward-moving tropical rainfall patterns,can influence weather in the U.S.in predictable ways within 20-25 days.This work has the potential to enhance previous research,whic

213、h resulted in the development and operational transition of a tool that uses the MJO and El Nio-Southern Oscillation to provide essential guidance for NOAAs week three to four outlooks.Through these and other achievements,NOAA is steadily closing the S2S gap and improving communities abilities to pl

214、an for and respond to extreme events.A depiction of Madden-Julian Oscillations which NOAAs Climate Program Office and scientists at Colorado State University have found can influence weather in the U.S.in predictable ways within 20-25 days.2018 NOAA Science Report33Integrated earth SyStem ProceSSeSe

215、nVIronmentaL oBSerVatIonSdecISIon ScIenceWater PredIctIonPoLar ScIencecoASTAL AcT coupLEd WAvE-SurgE ModELA significant portion of flooding due to hurricanes comes from wind-generated waves and the underlying storm surge,which pushes water up on shore and damages homes,buildings,and other structures

216、.The Consumer Option for an Alternative System to Allocate Losses(COASTAL)Act requires an accurate modeling of flooding due to hurricanes,at the spatial resolution of an individual house.Highly-sophisticated numerical models that separately simulate surge and wave processes have been developed and v

217、alidated in NOAA over the last decade to obtain accurate estimates of total wavesurge induced inundation.Furthermore,NOAA is working with the U.S.Army Corps of Engineers(USACE)to improve the WAVEWATCH III model to include storm surge,tides,and wave activity.These improvements will help the model ach

218、ieve the 90 percent accuracy requirement of the COASTAL Act.Improvements on WAVEWATCH from NOAAs National Center for Environmental Prediction better estimate total wave-surge induced inundation.MESSAging conSiSTEnT nWS WEAThEr forEcASTS:ThE nATionAL bLEnd of ModELSNOAAs National Blend of Models(NBM)

219、combines information from NOAA NWS and non-NOAA NWS models and uses the best available science to provide a consistent weather forecast product across the U.S.This blend of model data creates a highly accurate and consistent starting point for weather forecasts and is an important part of NOAAs effo

220、rts to achieve a Weather-Ready Nation.NBM Version 3.1,which was implemented on October 3,2018,will continue to fill existing product gaps with the blend of model data.A few highlights associated with this release include:(1)improving quantitative precipitation forecasts,especially in the mountainous

221、 West,(2)the addition and improvement in aviation guidance routinely used in daily airport operation planning and the creation of Terminal Aerodrome forecasts(TAFs),(3)a suite of fire weather guidance that will assist NOAA NWS forecasters in relaying critical information to emergency managers to imp

222、rove Impact-Based Decision Support Services,and(4)the release of an NBM text product that provides NBM guidance at stations for various temporal horizons.Comparison of a National Digital Forecast Database(NDFD)graphical product(top)and the National Blend of Models(NBM)product(bottom)for wind from NO

223、AAs Office of Science and Technology Integration.2018 NOAA Science Report34Integrated Earth System Processes and PredictionsSLoWing ocEAn MoTion:AMoc EnTErS unchArTEd TErriToryResearchers from the U.S.and Europe reconstructed changes in a large-scale system of ocean currents that circulates warm,sal

224、ty water from the South Atlantic and tropics via the Gulf Stream to the colder North Atlantic.They concluded that the system,called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC),has slowed down or weakened by about 15 percent since the 1950s.One result is that ocean temperatures in the North

225、east U.S.Shelf region are expected to continue warming faster than the global ocean,which will continue to affect fisheries and living marine resources in this commercially important region.The rapid ocean warming observed along the Northeast U.S.Shelf may be associated with the Gulf Stream shifting

226、 northwards and closer to shore,a consequence of the AMOC slowdown.In the CM2.6 global climate model,NOAAs high resolution climate model,enhanced warming of ocean bottom temperatures in the Northeast U.S.Shelf and in the Gulf of Maine is a result of both a poleward retreat of the cold Labrador Curre

227、nt and a northward shift of the warmer Gulf Stream.These changes in ocean currents and temperatures have impacts on fish,other species,and their prey.Continued warming is likely to further weaken the AMOC in the long term through changes to the hydrological cycle,sea-ice loss,and accelerated melting

228、 of the Greenland Ice Sheet,all of which are causing North Atlantic waters to become fresher and less dense.As a result,ocean temperatures along the Northeast U.S.Shelf are expected to continue warming and further impacts on fisheries in the region are expected.Research from NOAAs Northeast Fisherie

229、s Science Center finds warming ocean temperatures in the Northeast U.S.shelf region due to the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC),which could impact temperature sensitive species such as lobsters.ocEAn ModEL coLLAborATion WiTh ThE u.S.nAvyThe nations security and econ

230、omic well-being rely upon accurate global analysis and prediction capabilities of the physical environment over time scales of a few days to a few decades.Due to recent trends in the climate mean and variability,the use of historical data to predict average conditions and extreme events affecting co

231、mmerce,defense,infrastructure and water,energy,and other resources is less reliable for making informed decisions.However,ocean models have proven capable of significantly enhancing these prediction capabilities.The U.S.Navys global ocean model is running operationally and producing valuable guidanc

232、e.NOAA Research is addressing the Navys interests in having direct comparison with important existing capabilities in their own ocean model,and assessing the potential to use the latest generation of the Modular Ocean Model(MOM6)as the workhorse ocean model.Updates to MOM6 made in 2018 are of compar

233、able(or superior)quality by all measures to the Navys operational global forecasts.This is a significant milestone in the evaluation of MOM6 as a candidate for filling the Navys future global ocean forecasting needs and a substantial expansion of collaboration between NOAA and the Navy.NOAAs Geophys

234、ical Fluid Dynamics Laboratorys Modular Ocean Model(MOM6)is being considered by the U.S.Navy as a workhorse ocean model.2018 NOAA Science Report35Integrated earth SyStem ProceSSeSenVIronmentaL oBSerVatIonSdecISIon ScIenceWater PredIctIonPoLar ScIenceEcocAST:A dynAMic ocEAn MAnAgEMEnT TooL To rEducE

235、bycATch And SupporTNew computer-generated daily maps will help fishermen locate the most productive fishing spots in near real-time while warning them where they face the greatest risk of entangling sea turtles,marine mammals,and other protected species.Scientists developed the maps,the products of

236、a system called EcoCast,to help reduce accidental catches of protected species in fishing nets.Traditional ocean management strategies tend to be static with boundaries that are fixed in space and time.To capture broad-scale oceanic processes and protect highly migratory species,for example,these re

237、gions become larger than necessary with opportunity costs for commercial fisheries.EcoCast uses a dynamic management strategy,which better aligns scales of management to the scales of variability of the features and resources being managed.By incorporating real-time satellite,buoy,modeled and observ

238、ed data,EcoCast provides management recommendations that reflect current marine state.EcoCast will help fishermen,managers,scientists,and others understand in near real time where fishing vessels have the highest probability of catching targeted species and where there is risk of catching protected

239、species.In doing so,EcoCast aims to improve the economic and environmental sustainability of fisheries and reduce bycatch of protected species.Currently,NOAA Fisheries closes a large area off the West Coast to the swordfish fishery seasonally to protect leatherback turtles,which travel widely and ca

240、n be caught incidentally in the nets.With EcoCast,fisheries managers could outline small“dynamic closures”that shift according to the likely locations of the species they are trying to protect.Since they concentrate protection where it is needed most,dynamic closures for leatherback sea turtles coul

241、d be two to ten times smaller than the current static closures while still safeguarding the species that need protection.EcoCast is available now and is being developed by a consortium of scientists,managers,and members of the fishing industry.The EcoCast team is made up of scientists from several u

242、niversities(San Diego State University,University of California Santa Cruz,University of Maryland,Old Dominion University,Stanford University)and NOAA Fisheries,working in direct collaboration with resource managers,fishing industry,and other stakeholders.Fishermen have participated throughout the d

243、evelopment of EcoCast,which boosts its usefulness to the fishing fleet.EcoCast is a dynamic ocean management tool that aims to minimize fisheries bycatch and maximize fisheries target catch in real-time from NOAAs Southwest Fisheries Science Center.2018 NOAA Science Report36Integrated Earth System P

244、rocesses and PredictionsWhALES voicES chAngE WiTh AgE,juST LiKE ourSMuch like those of human infants and other mammals,calls made by whales younger than one year were shorter and less structured than adult sounds.As the animals mature,their calls became clearer,with better defined structure and long

245、er call durations.The calls continue to develop as the animal ages,decades after it has physically matured.The frequency and duration of these calls may be able to tell us about a whales body weight,size,physical condition,and stamina,all key factors in reproductive success for this endangered anima

246、l.An improved understanding of how calls change with age and individual can help direct conservation strategies by identifying when North Atlantic right whales are present and tracking the health of individuals.Researchers with the NOAAs Northeast Fisheries Science Center use the hydrophone,an under

247、water microphone(top),to listen for sounds made by right whales(bottom).EnvironMEnTAL And gEogrAphic rELATionShipS AMong SALMon forAgE ASSEMbLAgES ALong ThE conTinEnTAL ShELf of ThE cALiforniA currEnTPacific salmon(Oncorhynchus spp.)survival into adulthood supports a$420 million fishery in the U.S.a

248、nd is determined by the critical period when juveniles first enter the ocean.When fewer salmon prey species are available,juvenile salmon grow more slowly,which increases their chances of being preyed upon.Additionally,predators,when faced with insufficient other prey,will eat more juvenile salmon,c

249、ausing a significant amount of mortality on the salmon population.Therefore,identifying variables affecting the distribution of prey facilitates ecosystem-based management of salmon(specifically,Chinook,Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)in the California Current.NOAA Fisheries consolidated data from two surv

250、eys that measured suitable prey species,forage fish,for salmon on the coastal California Current shelf.The work,thus far,has demonstrated that Cape Blanco in southern Oregon represents a biogeographic break in community structure of forage fishes and that winter upwelling is a determining factor of

251、the availability of forage fish on the shelf.This work is essential to understanding the proximate driver of salmon recruitment north and south of the Cape Blanco.NOAAs Northwest Fisheries Science Center is studying how prey availability influences the survival to adulthood of economically important

252、 salmon species.2018 NOAA Science Report37Integrated earth SyStem ProceSSeSenVIronmentaL oBSerVatIonSdecISIon ScIenceWater PredIctIonPoLar ScIencegrEAT LAKES EcoSySTEM cLASSificATion SySTEMThe Great Lakes are the largest freshwater ecosystem in the world,with nearly 84 percent of North Americas surf

253、ace fresh water and 22 percent of the worlds surface fresh water.More than 35 million people rely on the Great Lakes for drinking water,jobs and their way of life.The regions economy generates$6 trillion.The Great Lakes unique geology,bathymetry,and climate create complex patterns of temperature,mec

254、hanical energy,water quality,and biological assemblages within and around the lakes.A collaboration of state,federal,university and non-governmental organization scientists developed an ecological classification system to help organize and simplify this complexity to advance monitoring,assessment,ma

255、nagement,and research of the Great Lakes.Researchers organized the Great Lakes into 77 Aquatic Ecological Units(AEUs)using depth,temperature,motion from waves and currents,and influence from nearby tributaries.The habitat classification simplifies a large(100,000 km2),complex ecosystem.Researchers c

256、an use the AEUs to describe and explain existing ecological patterns.Resource managers can use the AEUs to facilitate inventory surveys,evaluate habitat status and trends,and track the effects of human disturbance across different types of ecological units.The classification now informs policy devel

257、opment of environmental principles of the Great Lakes and will aid managers to prioritize critical fish habitat for protection and restoration.NOAAs Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory has developed a classification system for the Great Lakes.nATionAL ESTuArinE rESEArch rESErvES(nErrS)prov

258、idE SciEncE pLATforM for coASTAL rESiLiEncENOAA partners with coastal states to maintain 29 sites designated to protect estuarine systems.Collectively,these sites form the National Estuarine Research Reserve System(NERRS)which provides real-life labs for coastal monitoring,conservation,and research.

259、Recent studies in the NERRS have made key contributions to our understanding of how to protect coastal communities from coastal hazards.Research in New Hampshires Great Bay reserve demonstrated the value of NERRS to serve as a natural buffer against storm surge,sea level rise,and runoff.Findings fro

260、m this work,available online,are supporting land use decisions and policy.Researchers working at the Guana Tolomato Matanzas reserve in Florida are field testing and optimizing a new nature-based shoreline protection technique that is already showing benefits.Scientists and engineers installed a ser

261、ies of“gabion-break”structures that run parallel to the shore to dissipate waves using a combination of wooden breaks and shell filled cages.The research shows that this unique hybrid design is fostering oyster settlement and reef development and allowing sediment accretion and the expansion of mars

262、h grasses in a section of Floridas Intercoastal Waterway with heavy boat traffic.Over the past ten years,the NERRS Science Collaborative has supported the Hudson River Sustainable Shorelines Project,which engages a regional research team to quantify the ecological functions and physical stresses on

263、the full range of Hudson River shorelines.The team recently developed,tested,and trained land managers to use rapid assessment protocols allowing state regulators to rapidly determine the environmental success of restored shoreline projects.Ongoing collaboration with a variety of partners has enable

264、d this research to better inform state funding and permitting programs and has inspired a number of new sustainable shoreline projects along the Hudson River.A monitoring protocol is tested at the Hudson River National Estuarine Research Reserve(photo credit:Hudson River NERR).2018 NOAA Science Repo

265、rt38 Environmental Observations and DataNOAA uses a wide range of sensors and platforms to conduct sustained and experimental observations of phenomena ranging from solar flares to undersea earthquakes that are essential to NOAAs environmental intelligence mission.As the only federal agency with the

266、 operational responsibility to provide weather,water,ocean,climate,and ecosystem forecasts,NOAA is charged with collecting accurate,timely,and comprehensive observations of the Earth and its surrounding space.These activities generate greater than 20 terabytes of data each day(more than twice the da

267、ta of the entire printed collection of the United States Library of Congress),which,in turn,NOAA utilizes to produce useful environmental intelligence for society.These data,and the intelligence derived from these data,are critical tools that support government decisions and policies,scientific rese

268、arch,and the economic,environmental,and public health of the United States.Data science efforts within NOAA span the entire data exploitation spectrum including acquisition,quality control,metadata cataloging,validation,reprocessing,storage,retrieval,dissemination,and production of useful intelligen

269、ce and products for society.To support NOAAs data management efforts,advances in signal processing(e.g.,compression,sampling,thinning)are needed in order to keep pace with the scale at which NOAA is generating and collecting environmental data.Furthermore,NOAA is also investigating and leveraging em

270、erging developments in high-performance data access,storage and computing,data mining,natural language processing,and machine learning.Innovative processing techniques and R&D are being investigated to extend sensor capabilities to extract new products from measurements and find ways to increase the

271、 signal-to-noise ratio of measurements.To support improved data applications,NOAA continues to make advances in the current capabilities to couple traditional datasets(e.g.,physical,chemical,and biological)and fuse those data with non-traditional data(e.g.,social,behavioral,and economic)and unconven

272、tional sources(e.g.,citizen science).Lastly,in light of exponentially increasing computational demands,NOAA seeks to connect its high-performance computing capabilities with this expanded data analytics capability as well as augment its petascale computing systems and capabilities toward the exascal

273、e.Listed within this chapter are a few representative examples of the many ways NOAA has leveraged and improved its observational assets and data to make groundbreaking discoveries and provide improved environmental intelligence for its stakeholders and the American people.Accelerate the Blue Econom

274、yMapped more than 635,000 square kilometers of seafloor in and around the Pacific Remote Islands.Developed new method to identify incidents of illegal fishing using satellite and GPS technology.Prepare for Extreme WeatherBroadened outlook for coastal high tide flooding to more than 100 coastal locat

275、ions and updated it based on new national flooding thresholds.Launched two new satellites to improve weather,severe weather,hurricane,flooding,fire weather,and air quality forecasts.2018 NOAA Science Report39Selected Accomplishments Update to GRAV-D/NSRS Modernization:Use of Innovative Technology to

276、 Expand Coverage and Complete the 2022 Gravity-Based Vertical Datum New Buoy in Chesapeake Bay to Identify Areas Most Vulnerable to Ocean Acidification Machine Vision to Collect Timely Fisheries Data NOAA Uses Unmanned Systems to Enhance Navigation Saildrone Makes Key Observations in Tropics for Lon

277、g-Term Weather Forecasts Deep-Sea Benthic Surveys Inform Fishery Management Council Decisions in the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico NOAA Concludes the Campaign to Address Pacific monument Science,Technology,and Ocean NEeds(CAPSTONE)Development of High Tide Flooding Thresholds and Application to Flooding

278、 Outlooks Citizen Scientists New Atlas Reveals Patterns of Earths Microbial Diversity Developing the First Survey of Untrawlable Fish Habitats in Alaska We Heard You Were in the Area:Listening for Right Whales Shining a Light on Illegal Fishing Photo Survey Provides Rare Look at Basking Shark Behavi

279、or Using Underwater Video to Examine the Functional Role of Shellfish Aquaculture and Natural Nearshore Habitats in Puget Sound,Washington Puget Sound Habitat Status and Trend Monitoring Understanding the Value of Our Environmental Data New Experimental Coral Reef Laboratory Not Just Blowing Smoke:S

280、potting and Monitoring Fires from Space Tracking Lightning From Space:The GOES Satellites Geostationary Lightning Mapper Next Generation Satellites Enhance Observational Capabilities When Solar Storms Attack:Space Weather and our Infrastructure New Polar-Orbiting Satellite for Global Weather Forecas

281、ts and Emergency Responders Another Climate Milestone on Mauna Loa Emissions of Ozone-Destroying Chemical are Increasing Again Annual Greenhouse Gas Index Measures Earths Thermostat Setting Weather and Climate Data for Tribes Emissions from Personal Care Products Comparable to Tailpipe EmissionsInte

282、grated earth SyStem ProceSSeSenVIronmentaL oBSerVatIonSdecISIon ScIenceWater PredIctIonPoLar ScIence 2018 NOAA Science Report40Environmental Observations and DataupdATE To grAv-d/nSrS ModErnizATion:uSE of innovATivE TEchnoLogy To ExpAnd covErAgE And coMpLETE ThE 2022 grAviTy-bASEd vErTicAL dATuMAn a

283、ccurate and consistent national positioning system supports infrastructure for all modes of modern transportation land,air and sea.NOAAs modernization of the National Spatial Reference System(NSRS),the authoritative framework for all positioning activities in the U.S.,enables users to quickly determ

284、ine locations and heights to within one to two inches with GPS.The precise positioning provided by the NSRS will support construction,marine and fresh water navigation,flood risk determination,emergency management,property delineation,and new economic opportunities,such as smart vehicles and autonom

285、ous navigation.NSRSs modernization is made possible by NOAAs Gravity for the Redefinition of the American Vertical Datum(GRAV-D)project,a nationwide effort to collect gravity data from airborne instruments to modernize the vertical reference frame for the U.S.In 2018,the GRAV-D project reached 70 pe

286、rcent completion for the Nation and 98 percent completion over mainland Alaska.NOAAs National Geodetic Survey is modernizing the authoritative framework for all positioning activities in the U.S.with Gravity for the Redefinition of the American Vertical Datum(GRAV-D).nEW buoy in chESApEAKE bAy To id

287、EnTify ArEAS MoST vuLnErAbLE To ocEAn AcidificATionEstablishing sustained ocean acidification monitoring sites in estuarine environments has been identified as a high priority by the scientific community(e.g.,Strategic Plan for Federal Research and Monitoring of Ocean Acidification),and now,the firs

288、t long-term estuarine ocean acidification mooring is operating in the Chesapeake Bay.The current NOAA ocean acidification mooring network consists of 21 moorings in coral,coastal,and open-ocean environments of U.S.waters and select sites across the globe.The Chesapeake Bay is the largest U.S.estuary

289、 and provides a variety of resources that support recreational and commercial economies in multiple states.There is sizable natural variation in coastal water chemistry in large estuaries like the Chesapeake Bay,making it difficult to identify the human-driven components of ocean acidification and e

290、cosystem responses that follow.A buoy at the interface of Bay and ocean will advance our understanding of ocean acidification and help differentiate human impacts from natural chemical variations.The information from this long term monitoring will inform management options and adaptation strategies,

291、allowing the Bay to continue to support communities and industries,including fishing and recreation.NOAAs Ocean Acidification Program,Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory,and Integrated Ocean Observing System are monitoring water conditions in Chesapeake Bay.2018 NOAA Science Report41Integrated e

292、arth SyStem ProceSSeSenVIronmentaL oBSerVatIonSdecISIon ScIenceWater PredIctIonPoLar ScIenceMAchinE viSion To coLLEcT TiMELy fiShEriES dATANOAA Fisheries scientists,academia,and commercial fishermen are working together to develop innovative monitoring tools to identify and measure fish from digital

293、 images.Fisheries scientists and managers are increasingly turning to electronic monitoring to augment observer data by deploying camera systems to record catches on fishing boats and remotely monitor compliance in federal fisheries,assess fish populations,and inform management.These systems produce

294、 vast amounts of video data that are reviewed manually back on land,which delays the availability of data that could be used for fishery management.Machine vision technology would automate image analysis at sea,providing data needed to make management decisions in a quicker and more efficient manner

295、 than electronic monitoring systems which require manual data processing.The Electronic Monitoring(EM)Innovation Project started in 2013 is working in collaboration with numerous international,federal and state agencies,as well as the Information Processing Laboratory at the University of Washington

296、,who is leading the development of machine vision to automate length measurement and species identification.Working with the fishing industry,the team has overcome one of the biggest hurdles to the project:developing equipment that can survive Alaskan weather and seas.A view of a catch from NOAAs Al

297、aska Fisheries Science Center machine vision tool.noAA uSES unMAnnEd SySTEMS To EnhAncE nAvigATionRecreational boaters,fisherman,and cruising vessels are aware of the hazards in shallow waters,such as the area of the Chesapeake Bay along the Eastern Shore of Maryland.To safely travel in these waters

298、,they rely on a system of beacons and buoys,known as aids to navigation(ATON).The U.S.Coast Guard(USCG)Aids to Navigation Team(ANT)recently requested the assistance of NOAA NOS to identify areas where ATON needed repairs,relocation,or removal.Crews from NOAA and the USCG operated an Echoboat autonom

299、ous surface vehicle to survey the Chesapeakes shallow waters.Once the survey data is processed and delivered to the USCG ANT,they can make informed decisions about maintaining ATON.Through NOAAs autonomous survey capabilities,USCG may also find old ATON anchors and recycle them back into service,whi

300、ch would result in a potential cost savings.NOAAs Office of the Coast Survey loads an Echoboat onto a U.S.Coast Guard vessel(bottom)to survey the Pocomoke River channel(top).2018 NOAA Science Report42Environmental Observations and DataSAiLdronE MAKES KEy obSErvATionS in TropicS for Long-TErM WEAThEr

301、 forEcASTSThe saildrone is an autonomous sailing drone currently being explored as a tool to provide high quality oceanic and atmospheric observations.On September 1,2017,two saildrones departed Alameda,California,on a six-month,7400+nautical km mission to the equator and back in an effort to improv

302、e the Tropical Pacific Observing System(TPOS).The two saildrones returned to Saildrone headquarters eight months later,after fighting strong westerly currents and light winds which caused some navigational difficulties.Preliminary results indicate that the saildrones sensors provide high quality mea

303、surements and revealed interesting results about ocean features that may not be revealed from satellite or moored buoys.On October 3,2018,four saildrones departed from Hawaii on their second mission to the equator to capture oceanic and atmospheric data,such as temperature,winds,currents,and ocean c

304、arbon dioxide concentrations during a developing El Nio.This year,two of the four saildrones have been outfitted with larger,more efficient sails,making them faster and more capable in low wind-strong current environments.A third mission is planned for February 2019.The TPOS missions will test wheth

305、er the saildrone can provide measurements at the quality that matches research ships and proven mooring technology.If this is the case,saildrones could become a powerful and cost-effective tool for providing key observations for long-term weather forecasts.NOAAs Pacific Marine Environmental Laborato

306、ry is using Saildrone to make oceanic and atmospheric observations in the tropical Pacific.dEEp-SEA bEnThic SurvEyS inforM fiShEry MAnAgEMEnT counciL dEciSionS in ThE pAcific And guLf of MExicoNOAA NOS data and analyses from deep sea benthic surveys directly influenced two major Fishery Management C

307、ouncil(FMC)decisions.In May 2018,the Pacific FMC proposed new fisheries openings off of northern California to be accompanied by new fisheries closures in rocky areas along southern California to protect deep sea corals,important spawning grounds for commercially valuable species including grouper,s

308、napper,sea bass,and rockfish.The closures included 460 km2 within the Greater Farallones National Marine Sanctuary.In June,the Gulf of Mexico FMC designated 21 sites totaling 1250 km2 as Habitat Areas of Particular Concern,to safeguard some of the regions coral hot spots and restrict damaging fishin

309、g gear in most of those areas.Both decisions were based on survey data and other collaborative research with full support of the fishing communities.NOAAs Draft Environmental Impact Statement indicates the economic impact of these proposals will be a positive net benefit to fisheries landings and va

310、lue.The large closure areas had small negative economic impacts(due to their extreme depth and distance offshore),while the smaller openings had larger positive economic impacts,up to three times the landings and value of the closure areas.A map of new spatial management decisions off the coast of C

311、alifornia based on NOAAs National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science deep sea benthic surveys.2018 NOAA Science Report43Integrated earth SyStem ProceSSeSenVIronmentaL oBSerVatIonSdecISIon ScIenceWater PredIctIonPoLar ScIencenoAA concLudES ThE ocEAn ExpLorATion cAMpAign To AddrESS pAcific MonuMEnT Sci

312、EncE,TEchnoLogy,And ocEAn nEEdS(cApSTonE)From July 2015-September 2017,NOAA and partners conducted the Campaign to Address Pacific monument Science,Technology,and Ocean NEeds(CAPSTONE)using NOAA Ship Okeanos Explorer.CAPSTONE was a major multi-year foundational science effort focused on deepwaters o

313、f central and western Pacific U.S.marine protected areas(MPAs).The initiative provided timely,actionable information to support decision making,and also served as an opportunity for the nation to highlight the importance of these remote and largely unexplored areas.Throughout CAPSTONE,NOAA conducted

314、 24 expeditions,187 remotely operated vehicle dives,and mapped more than 635,000 km2 of seafloor,an area close to the size of Texas,in and around the Pacific Remote Islands,Papahnaumokukea,Marianas Trench,and Rose Atoll Marine National Monuments,the Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale and American Samoa

315、 National Marine Sanctuaries,and the high seas.The campaign contributed a wealth of publicly available data,including high-resolution maps for large portions of the Pacific Ocean,first documentations of several underwater cultural heritage sites,the discovery of potential new species,range expansion

316、s of numerous known species,and important insights into geological,oceanographic,and biological processes.These data and information improve our understanding of how underwater geological features are formed across the central and western Pacific and help to identify biogeographic patterns and natur

317、al and cultural resources.CAPSTONE results also allow decision-makers to better address emerging regional priorities such as deep-sea mineral locations,sustainable fisheries,and potential U.S.Extended Continental Shelf designations.More than 260 scientists,students,and managers participated in CAPST

318、ONE expeditions via telepresence technology,and live video feeds from these expeditions received more than 16.5 million views.The Campaign to Address Pacific monument Science,Technology,and Ocean NEeds(CAPSTONE)operating areas from 2015-2017(top left).Using a Remotely Operated Vehicle Deep Discovere

319、r(top right)NOAAs Office of Ocean Exploration and Research observed a deep-sea swimming sea cucumber(middle right)and a ghostlike octopod(bottom right).2018 NOAA Science Report44Environmental Observations and DatadEvELopMEnT of high TidE fLooding ThrEShoLdS And AppLicATion To fLooding ouTLooKSCoasta

320、l flooding damages infrastructure and causes additional hazards when it creeps into busy city centers and streets.In 2018,NOAA released the State of High Tide Flooding and 2018 Outlook to assess coastal high tide flooding based on new national flooding thresholds.This new approach expands the outloo

321、k to more than 100 coastal locations and highlights the impact of high tide flooding.This technical report allows NOAA to communicate these new thresholds and the frequency of visible flooding to decision-makers to inform mitigation measures.NOAAs Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Se

322、rvices technical report highlights the impact of high tide flooding.ciTizEn SciEnTiSTSCitizen science addresses societal needs,supports hands-on learning,and enhances research and monitoring.At NOAA,citizen scientists connect to NOAAs mission through more than 40 projects.For example,Steller Watch e

323、ngages online volunteers that have classified 340,000 images to help track movement and survival of Steller sea lions in Alaskas remote eastern Aleutian Islands.In another project,data on the seafloors depth and shape,is crowdsourced from recreation boats to tankers,and made publicly available by NO

324、AA.Through these projects and many others,NOAA makes citizen science a vital part of observing,predicting and protecting our environment.Each year,volunteers with Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary participate in the Sanctuary Ocean Count to keep track of visiting humpback wha

325、les.nEW ATLAS rEvEALS pATTErnS of EArThS MicrobiAL divErSiTyMicrobes found in animals and throughout the oceans and soils support ecosystem services,including food production.Understanding how environmental conditions affect this critical component of the Earth system can help anticipate how communi

326、ties will adapt as conditions change.The Earth Microbiome Project,led in part by NOAA scientists,recently published the first reference database,or atlas,of microbes covering the planet.This new database catalogs the microbiomes of Earth,which can help launch innovations in aquaculture,agriculture,e

327、nergy,medicine,and the built environment(including space vehicles).This catalogue can facilitate exchange of knowledge and encourage scientific collaborations to advance understanding of microbial diversity in a global context.NUMBERSBY THE307,5727 continents43 countries92environmental features66ani

328、mal host species2 12(stomach acid to household ammonia)50+peer-reviewed publications500+scientists78.9 N 78.2 Slatitude range(Arctic Circle to Antarctica)1reference database of bacteria that reside on Planet EarthCredit:UC San Diego Center for Microbiome InnovationReference:Thompson et al.Nature.201

329、7.doi:10.1038/nature24621pH range27,751samplesunique DNA sequences(approx.species)2,212,796,183total DNA sequencesNOAAs Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory contributed to the Earth Microbiome Project,which catalogs the microbiomes of Earth.2018 NOAA Science Report45Integrated earth

330、SyStem ProceSSeSenVIronmentaL oBSerVatIonSdecISIon ScIenceWater PredIctIonPoLar ScIencedEvELoping ThE firST SurvEy of unTrAWLAbLE fiSh hAbiTATS in ALASKABottom-trawl and midwater acoustic surveys have been the main source of fishery-independent data for assessing fish stocks in Alaska.However,a bott

331、om trawl cannot sample the steep,rocky areas-untrawlable areas-that species such as Atka mackerel and rockfishes prefer.Acoustic instruments can be used in these areas,but are limited in detecting fish on or near the seafloor and cannot discern between fish species or sizes.Untrawlable areas make up

332、 to 17 percent of federally managed areas where bottom-trawl surveys are regularly conducted in the Gulf of Alaska and 54 percent in the Aleutian Islands.In order to survey untrawlable areas,NOAA Fisheries is designing the first large-scale image-based fish survey in Alaska,and one of the first untr

333、awlable habitat surveys nationwide.These image-based surveys use automated image analysis to identify and determine the length of the fish in the captured images,identifying a fish in one fifth of the time it would take a trained biologist.These fish stock assessments are necessary for setting catch limits in these areas;an improved understanding of the fish populations will improve the management