1、2019 NOAA Science ReportNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationU.S.Department of CommerceNOAA Technical Memorandum NOAA Research Council-0022019 NOAA Science ReportGina Digiantonio,Emma Kelley,Eric Bayler,Neil Christerson,Sarah Davis,Kurt Dreflak,Jawed Hameedi,Michael Liddel,Gary Matlock,Lau

2、ra Newcomb,Jamie Roberts,Peter Roohr NOAASilver Spring,MarylandFebruary 2020noaaNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATIONNOAA Research Council2019 NOAA Science ReportGina Digiantonio,Emma Kelley,Eric Bayler,Neil Christerson,Sarah Davis,Kurt Dreflak,Jawed Hameedi,Michael Liddel,Gary Matlock,Lau

3、ra Newcomb,Jamie Roberts,Peter Roohr NOAASilver Spring,MarylandFebruary 2020UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCENATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATIONNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Research CouncilWilbur RossSecretaryNeil Jacobs,Ph.D.,Acting NOAA AdministratorRDML Tim Galla

4、udet,Ph.D.,USN Ret.NOAA Research Council ChairCraig N.McLeanNOAA Research Council Vice ChairNOTICEThis document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government.The views and opinions of the authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those o

5、f the United States Government or any agency or Contractor thereof.Neither the United States Government,nor Contractor,nor any of their employees,make any warranty,express or implied,or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy,completeness,or usefulness of any information,produ

6、ct,or process disclosed,or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights.Mention of a commercial company or product does not constitute an endorsement by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.Use of information from this publication concerning proprietary products o

7、r the tests of such products for publicity or advertising purposes is not authorized.ForewordAs the Nations premier ocean,weather,and atmospheric science agency,the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA)continuously conducts world class research to improve the lives and livelihoods of

8、 American citizens.NOAA scientists work to explore,observe,and understand our world from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun,providing important information to the public,emergency managers,and decision-makers.In 2019,NOAA and our partners applied machine learning to improve severe wea

9、ther forecasting,developed new tools to track oil spills and improve responses,conducted research to understand the health implications of wildfires,used drones to map coastlines,developed new tools to forecast,detect,and track harmful algal blooms(HAB),and much more.This year,NOAA also took steps f

10、orward to finalize and begin implementing agency strategies for artificial intelligence,unmanned systems,omics,and the cloud.These strategies will ensure robust,agency-wide coordination and strong institutional support for these four important science and technology focus areas,enabling transformati

11、onal advances in the quality and efficiency of NOAAs science,products,and services.The 2019 Science Report provides a snapshot of some of the many research accomplishments from NOAA and our academic and industry partners.NOAAs research and development enterprise contributed to the following three pr

12、iorities:1.Reduce societal impacts from hazardous weather and other environmental phenomena.For example,NOAAresearchers used high-performance computing(HPC)systems to help meteorologists and other scientists putsatellite imagery and data to work to improve the accuracy of forecasts,simulate dangerou

13、s weather patterns,andcreate better early warning systems for hurricanes,tsunamis,tornadoes,and other catastrophic weather events.2.Enable the sustainable use and stewardship of ocean and coastal resources.For example,NOAA funded aregional pilot study to evaluate the economic impacts of marine debri

14、s on tourism-dependent communities.This study may inform the prioritization of areas where prevention and removal efforts are needed.3.Advance a robust and effective research,development,and transition enterprise.For example,NOAA iscreating a community modeling framework for the Unified Forecast Sys

15、tem,the next-generation Earth systemmodeling capability.With this framework,NOAA will be able to transition research to operations forimproved modeling and forecasting of high impact weather events.Additionally,we will be following up fromthe November 2019 White House Summit on Ocean Science and Tec

16、hnology Partnerships by implementingthe Presidential Memorandum to map,explore,and characterize our EEZ.NOAAs scientific achievements,which are recognized by numerous outside organizations,are made possible by our highly skilled and dedicated workforce.For this reason,the 2019 NOAA Science Report hi

17、ghlights NOAAs commitment to scientific integrity and diversity and inclusion.This years Science Report,representing a selection of NOAAs work on behalf of the American People,showcases NOAAs dedication to using cutting-edge research and high-tech instrumentation to provide the highest quality produ

18、cts and services,as well as NOAAs commitment to our mission of science,service,and stewardship.RDML Tim Gallaudet,Ph.D.,USN Ret.Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and Deputy NOAA AdministratorTable of ContentsIntroduction.1Enriching Life Through Science.1Why Does NOAA Invest i

19、n Research?.1NOAAs Mission:Science,Service,and Stewardship.1NOAAs Priority Objectives.1What Kinds of Research Does NOAA Support?.2What Principles Guide NOAA Research?.2Scientific Integrity.3All Six NOAA Line Offices Provide Unique Contributions to NOAA R&D.4.6What is the Budget for NOAA Research?.Wh

20、ere Does it Go?.62019 Hurricane Supplemental R&D Activities.6Scientific Infrastructure.7NOAA Transitions Research into Operations,Applications,Commercialization,and Other Uses(R2X).7Examples of Research Transition.8References.9Science Highlights .10Reducing Societal Impacts from Hazardous Weather an

21、d Other Environmental Phenomena.10Sustainable Use and Stewardship of Ocean and Coastal Resources.21A Robust and Effective Research and Development Enterprise.38Bibliometrics.49Scientific Workforce.61Scientific Awards and Achievements.61Diversity and Inclusion.65Laboratory and Program Science Reviews

22、.69National Environmental Satellite,Data,and Information Service.70National Weather Service .71Oceanic and Atmospheric Research .72National Ocean Service .73National Marine Fisheries Service .74Acting Under Secretary Neil Jacobs(left),Deputy Secretary of Commerce Karen Dunn Kelley(center),and Ken Gr

23、aham,Director of the NOAA National Hurricane Center(right)at the National Hurricane Center for Hurricane Season Kick-off.Photo credit:NOAAAssistant Secretary Tim Gallaudet on the Maryland pilots tour.Photo credit:NOAANOAA group at International Association of Emergency Managers Conference.Photo cred

24、it:NOAA1IntroductionEnriching Life Through ScienceExtending from the surface of the sun to the depths of the oceans,the mission of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA)depends on a strong research and development(R&D)foundation for observing and understanding the complex environm

25、ental systems that define our planet.This understanding ultimately provides a range of users with the information and knowledge needed to protect lives,support livelihoods,improve economic efficiency,and enhance life.NOAA products and services provide daily weather forecasts that help protect human

26、life and property,guide maritime commerce,and inform fisheries management and marine ecosystem conservation.Why Does NOAA Invest in Research?NOAAs investment in research is critical to continually improve the quality of NOAAs products and services for the Nation.These products and services are devel

27、oped through dynamic engagement between the agency and its users:stakeholders communicate their needs to NOAA,sparking new research initiatives or improvements to current services,while NOAA continues to improve research and services to meet the needs of the people who depend on them,as well as in r

28、esponse to legislation.By integrating research conducted internally with the efforts of our partners,including cooperative institutes,universities,other government agencies,and the private sector,NOAA can transform concepts into the data,tools,and information upon which our stakeholders rely.In shor

29、t,NOAA balances a broad research portfolio to serve a wide spectrum of end users.NOAAs Mission:Science,Service,and Stewardship1.To understand and predict changes in climate,weather,oceans,and coasts;2.To share that knowledge and information withothers;and3.To conserve and manage coastal and marineec

30、osystems and resources.NOAAs Priority ObjectivesNOAA is supporting the Department of Commerces Strategic Plan through two priority objectives NOAA,2018:1.Minimize the impacts of extreme weatherand water events by implementing the WeatherResearch and Forecasting Innovation Act,withthe underlying goal

31、 to regain world leadership inweather modeling.2.Accelerating the American Blue Economy,with specific focus on reducing the nationsseafood trade deficit through expanded marineaquaculture.2IntroductionWhat Kinds of Research Does NOAA Support?NOAAs R&D addresses the needs of the user community while

32、advancing fundamental scientific understanding.Our R&D portfolio must allow the flexibility to consider contributions to the scientific knowledge base separately from(albeit related to)enhancing applicability.In the context of the classical treatment by Donald Stokes Stokes,1997,we strive to positio

33、n our investment primarily in“Pasteurs Quadrant,”(Figure 1)while including critical investments aimed primarily at either advancing fundamental understanding or enhancing applications.NOAA strategically invests across the risk-reward spectrum,pursuing a range of projects,from low-risk projects that

34、result in incremental gains to high-risk projects with high potential gains but less certainty of success.This balanced approach sets NOAA on the cutting edge of R&D while still ensuring that user needs and expectations are met.Figure 1.Donald Stokes proposed the above chart in his 1997 book Pasteur

35、s Quadrant:Basic Science and Technological Innovation.This chart portrays that,while some research largely focuses on fundamental understanding(Bohrs quadrant upper left)or application(Edisons quadrant,lower right),it is possible for research to be highly relevant for both fundamental understanding

36、and real-life applications(Pasteurs quadrant,upper right).The majority of NOAA research strives for this dual relevance as reflected in Pasteurs quadrant.What Principles Guide NOAA Research?NOAA strives to employ the following eight principles from NOAA Administrative Order(NAO)216-115A NOAA,2016a w

37、hen formulating,directing,and evaluating all agency research:mission alignment,transition readiness(NAO 216-105B,NOAA,2016b),research balance,optimized partnerships,sustained facilities and infrastructure,workforce excellence,scientific integrity,and accountability.These principles,grounded in commu

38、nication within the agency and between our partners,work together to establish and maintain NOAAs high-quality research,development,services,and products.NOAA maintains both intramural and extramural research investments,with some programs investing the majority of their R&D funding internally,at la

39、bs and science centers with Federal employees,and other programs investing the majority of their funding with external R&D partners at universities,industry,and other research institutions.In many cases,programs distribute their R&D investments across both intramural and extramural efforts.NOAA part

40、nerships,vital to the agencys R&D efforts,enable NOAA to leverage the expertise,equipment,and facilities of leading universities,Federal agencies,private companies,NGOs,and other science innovators.Key mechanisms for partnerships include Cooperative Institute and Cooperative Science Center agreement

41、s with universities;the network of university-based Sea Grant programs;extramural grant programs;contracts;and Cooperative Research and Development Agreements with the private sector.3Scientific IntegrityNOAA ensures scientific integrity is a priority in order to promote a continuing culture of scie

42、ntific excellence and strengthen the confidence in the quality,validity,and reliability of NOAA science.NOAAs Scientific Integrity Policy(NAO 202-735D NOAA,2011 and accompanying Procedural Handbook establish a Code of Scientific Conduct and a Code of Ethics for Science Supervision and Management to

43、set the responsibilities of scientists,their managers,and those who use scientific results to set policy.NOAAs Scientific Integrity Officer and Scientific Integrity Committee support the NOAA Research Council,NOAA Chief Scientist,and the NOAA Deputy Under Secretary for Operations in their respective

44、 responsibilities for oversight and implementation of NOAAs Scientific Integrity Policy.The intent of the policy is to strengthen widespread confidencefrom scientists,to decision-makers,to the general publicin the quality,validity,and reliability of NOAA science and to denote the agencys commitment

45、to a culture of support for excellence of NOAAs principal science asset,its employees.NOAAs Scientific Integrity Policy is founded upon existing policies within the Department of Commerce and NOAA and updates and extends them substantially based on guidance from the Office of Science and Technology

46、Policy and the Administration.NOAAs Scientific Integrity Framework&Supporting Guidance includes procedures and policies for communication of research results with the media;communication of research products(including guidance on expressing individual opinion;and service in an official capacity to n

47、onprofit organizations.These important Department of Commerce and NOAA policies make up NOAAs comprehensive scientific integrity framework.Janet Duffy-Anderson,NOAA EcoFOCI Program Lead,and Knauss Fellow Chrissy Hayes rinse bongo nets for processing.Photo Credit:Lindsey Leigh Graham,NOAAIntroduction

48、4IntroductionAll Six NOAA Line Offices Provide Unique Contributions to NOAA R&DThe National Marine Fisheries Service(NMFS),also known as NOAA Fisheries,is responsible for the stewardship of the nations ocean resources and their habitat.NOAA Fisheries provides vital services for the nation:productive

49、 and sustainable fisheries,safe sources of seafood,the recovery and conservation of protected resources,and healthy ecosystemsall backed by sound science and an ecosystem-based approach to management.Using the Magnuson-Stevens Act as the guide,NOAA Fisheries works in partnership with Regional Fisher

50、y Management Councils to assess and predict the status of fish stocks,set catch limits,ensure compliance with fisheries regulations,and reduce bycatch.The National Ocean Service(NOS)is the nations premier science agency for oceans and coasts.NOS delivers the applied science,modeling,tools and servic

51、es needed to understand,predict,and respond to the challenges we face along Americas 95,000 miles of shoreline and 3.5 million square miles of coastal,Great Lakes,and deep-ocean waters.The National Environmental Satellite,Data,and Information Service(NESDIS)provides timely access to global environme

52、ntal data from satellites and other sources to promote,protect,and enhance the Nations economy,security,environment,and quality of life.NESDIS supports science through the Center for Satellite Applications and Research(STAR)and National Centers for Environmental Information(NCEI)(see NESDIS Laborato

53、ry and Program Science Review on page 70).Through these programs,NESDIS researches,formulates,develops,maintains,and sustains environmental measurements from satellites,as well as associated applications of satellite environmental observations,and maintains the quality of NOAAs operational satellite

54、 measurements,directly enabling and supporting NOAAs environmental analysis and prediction capabilities.NESDIS hosts and provides public access to one of Earths most comprehensive archives for atmospheric,oceanic,and geophysical data,with research and development focusing on preserving,stewarding,an

55、d providing the best possible long-term environmental data records;thereby,maximizing the datas utility and enabling the Nations environmental science efforts.5The Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research(OAR),also known as NOAA Research,provides the research foundation for understanding the compl

56、ex earth systems that support our planet.OARs role is to provide unbiased science to better manage the environment nationally and globally.The science and technology that OAR produces and transfers to partners(in NOAAs service lines and beyond)is instrumental to preventing the loss of human life,man

57、aging natural resources,and maintaining a strong economy.OAR has partnerships and platforms around the world and offices located across the country,including seven laboratories and six program offices that support research and provide information used from the international to the local level.The Na

58、tional Weather Service(NWS)provides weather,hydrologic,and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States,its territories,adjacent waters and ocean areas,for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.NWS data and products form a national information databa

59、se and infrastructure which can be used by other governmental agencies,the private sector,the public,and the global community.NWS sustains and improves its observing system infrastructure with new technologies while leveraging more observations through innovative public and private partnerships;addi

60、tionally,next generation weather and Earth system models are developed using a community-based approach,along with advances in high-performance computing.NWS also improves its tools,systems,and policies for virtualization,analytics,data management,and dissemination,ensuring full utilization of state

61、-of-the art science,data sources,and technologies.Collaboration with partners across NOAA,other Federal agencies,and the Enterprise are critical to enable effective research to operations and operations to research activities for impact-based decision support services(IDSS).The Office of Marine and

62、Aviation Operations(OMAO)operates a wide variety of specialized aircraft and ships to complete NOAAs environmental and scientific missions.OMAO is also responsible for the administration and implementation of the Aviation Safety Program,Small Boat Program and NOAA Diving Program to ensure safe and e

63、fficient operations in NOAA-sponsored aviation,small boat and underwater activities.Introduction6IntroductionWhat is the Budget for NOAA Research?NOAA dedicated$703 million,or approximately 13 percent of the agencys total budget,to R&D in fiscal year 2019(FY19,with R&D defined as all research and de

64、velopment activities outside of R&D related facilities and equipment purchases).This continues a seven-year trend of increased R&D expenditures,highlighting NOAAs efforts to keep up with increased stakeholder demand for environmental intelligence and services in the face of a changing planet.Note:OM

65、AO tracks management and operation of aircraft and vessels in support of Line Office R&D as Equipment and therefore is not displayed here.NOAA satellite development to support operations and research is also not included.Percentages do not sum to 100 due to rounding.Where Does it Go?Approximately 55

66、 percent of NOAAs FY19 R&D budget went to internal R&D efforts,including those at NOAA labs and science centers within the line offices.The remaining 45 percent was set aside for extramural research,enabling partnerships and collaborations with non-NOAA entities.Note:All graphs exclude facilities an

67、dequipment from R&D budget calculations.2019 Hurricane Supplemental R&D ActivitiesResearch and development activities supported by Public-Law 116-20,Additional Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Relief,2019,are planned to accelerate the implementation of NOAAs existing improvement plans in rel

68、evant focus areas:1.Hurricane intensity forecasting,including through deployment of unmanned ocean observing platformsand enhanced data assimilation;2.Flood prediction,forecasting,and mitigation capabilities;3.Wildfire prediction,detection,and forecasting.7IntroductionScientific InfrastructureThe sc

69、ience described in this report is not possible without investments in enabling research infrastructure,including the acquisition and maintenance of“hard”infrastructure,such as extensive observing systems,satellites,ships,aircraft,laboratories,and high-performance computing systems.These critical ass

70、ets provide the data and tools for NOAA scientists to increase understanding of our Earth systems,provide better forecasts,and inform decisions.NOAA Transitions Research into Operations,Applications,Commercialization,and Other Uses(R2X)NOAA and the Nation extract benefit from NOAAs research when the

71、 research results transition into use;consequently,research and development transitions are essential to addressing NOAAs missions.NOAA uses a system of nine readiness levels(NAO 216-105B)to characterize and track the maturity of NOAA scientific projects through research,development,demonstration,an

72、d deployment.Transition plans describe and facilitate the transition of R&D to potential end use,and represent an agreement between researchers and potential recipients.In addition,NOAAs 12 testbeds and proving grounds allow for pre-deployment testing of NOAAs research and development to facilitate

73、the transition into forecasts,warnings,products,services,and decision support.NOAAs testbeds and proving grounds include:1.Arctic Testbed2.Aviation Weather Testbed3.Climate Testbed4.Coastal and Ocean Modeling Testbed5.Developmental Testbed6.GOES-R Proving Ground7.Hazardous Weather Testbed8.Hydromete

74、orology Testbed9.Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation10.Joint Hurricane Testbed11.Operations Proving Ground12.Space Weather Prediction TestbedThe Aviation Weather Center hosted the 2019 Aviation Weather Testbed Summer Experiment August 19-23,2019.Image credit:NOAA.8IntroductionExamples of Re

75、search TransitionThe following activities listed below highlight just a few of the R&D projects that have been selected to move from research to operations,applications,commercialization,or other uses.Portable buoy for nearshore,real-time current observationsA portable buoy was developed to meet a g

76、rowing need for a quick deployment,near-surface,real-time coastal currents observation platform.This tool can enable incident responders to predict the fate and trajectory of spilled pollutants,serves as a reconnaissance tool to assess changing tidal currents,and can be used as a real-time currents

77、platform for the Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System(PORTS).Following successful field demonstrations,a transition to operations of the new system was completed during 2019.The system was deployed operationally for the first time in July,2019 at the Delaware River near Philadelphia,Pennsylvania

78、to meet a request from pilot captains to better resolve complex tidal currents.Resulting measurements will improve existing NOAA NOS tidal current predictions and associated navigational support products at this location.Sites for 2020 potential deployments include the Port of Miami,Florida,the Gulf

79、 Coast of Florida,and South Chesapeake Bay,Virginia.New real-time currents buoy during its first operational deployment(July 2019)in the Delaware River,West of Philadelphia.Photo credit:NOAA/NOS/Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services,Katie KirkUsing machine learning to improve fo

80、recasts of excessive rainfallForecasters at NOAA NWS are responsible for producing Excessive Rainfall Outlooks,which highlight the potential for flood-inducing rains up to three days in advance.However,the amount of rain that qualifies as“excessive”varies from region to region,and pinpointing the sp

81、ecific areas likely to receive heavy rain is challenging,especially during the summer thunderstorm season.Through support from the NOAA Joint Technology Transfer Initiative,researchers developed a forecast system that uses past forecasts and observations of heavy rainfall,along with machine learning

82、 algorithms,to identify the probability of flood-producing rains across the U.S.at forecast lead times of 2-3 days.Close collaboration between the university scientists and NWS staff allowed for this forecast system to be transitioned into operational use,so that forecasters now have an additional t

83、ool to bring awareness to areas that are at risk of potentially destructive and deadly heavy rain and flooding.9IntroductionPublic-private collaboration to develop user-friendly kits for genetic tracking of fecal-indicating bacteria in the environmentMolecular Microbial Source Tracking(MST)is a suit

84、e of omics-based assays aimed at detecting,measuring,and tracking bacterial contaminants in environmental samples.NOAA Research is collaborating with the Pall Corporation to transition a variety of MST research assays into user-friendly kits that will run on the Pall GeneDisc Rapid Microbiology ther

85、mocycler system.In 2018,NOAA adapted select assays to run in the Pall system and transitioned these GeneDisc-based MST assays to the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands(CNMI)Bureau of Environmental and Coastal Quality(BECQ),which used the technology to conduct a study on land-based sources

86、of pollution in Saipan from 2018-2019.NOAA is now collaborating with Pall to generate simple-to-use prototype kits that include all reagents and standards in order to further automate analysis of results,and encourage more widespread availability of this MST technology.Marine sanctuary condition rep

87、orts use the integrated ecosystem assessment frameworkNOAA NOS,in cooperation with many partners,including NOAA Fisheries,develops National Marine Sanctuary condition reports that are used to assess the status and trends of National Marine Sanctuary resources.To improve the approach to determining s

88、tatus and trend ratings,NOAA uses an Integrated Ecosystem Assessment framework,which offers a quantitatively rigorous and repeatable approach to identify and assess indicators for sanctuary resources,driving forces that influence pressures on resources(e.g.,commodity prices such as fuel,changing inc

89、ome,import/export dynamics),human activities,and ecosystem services.NOAA released the new condition report for Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary,and activities are currently underway at Stellwagen Bank,Olympic Coast,Florida Keys,and American Samoa National Marine Sanctuaries and Papahnaumoku

90、kea Marine National Monument.New tools developed by the NOAA co-funded Marine Biodiversity Observation Network(MBON)will provide interactive infographics that provide dynamic information for experts to prepare and update condition reports,and allow data-driven awareness for responding to events.Thes

91、e tools can also be used to support education and outreach products.References:NOAA(2011),NOAA Administrative Order 202-735D-Scientific Integrity,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Washington,D.C.NOAA(2016a),NOAA Administrative Order 216-115A-Research and Development in NOAA,National Oc

92、eanic and Atmospheric Administration,Washington,D.C.NOAA(2016b),NOAA Administrative Order 216-105B-Policy on Research and Development Transitions,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Washington,D.C.NOAA(2018),NOAA by the Numbers,p.3,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Washingt

93、on,D.C.Stokes,D.E.(1997),Pasteurs quadrant:Basic science and technological innovation,Brookings Institution Press.10Science Highlights Reducing Societal Impacts from Hazardous Weather and Other Environmental PhenomenaNOAA research and development improves the forecasts and warnings that provide accu

94、rate and timely information to inform the public about hazardous weather and environmental events.Through a better understanding of weather and climate phenomena,as well as the human perception and behavior in response to risk communication,NOAA science helps to save lives and property.In 2019,NOAAs

95、 scientific accomplishments for reducing societal impacts from hazardous weather and other environmental phenomena included the following:Improving space weather forecasts soastronauts are ready for exploration Listening to solar storms Improving communication of forecastuncertainty and risk informa

96、tion VORTEX-SE:Insights into the structure andpredictability of southeastern U.S.tornadicstorms Meteotsunami detection and climatology Saving more lives and property with improvedtiming/path prediction for tornadoes New NOAA satellite data are helping improvetool to predict severe Great Lakes snowst

97、orms Applying machine learning to improve severeweather forecasting New modeling capabilities to advance severeweather predictions within a Unified ForecastSystem New research uses laboratory and airbornefield measurements to understand climate andair quality effects of wildfires NOAA advancements f

98、or subseasonal toseasonal severe weather forecasts New research probes the effects of wildfires Protecting lives and mitigating flood damageduring hurricanes and tropical storms Integrating advanced high performancecomputing to improve forecasts of high impactevents like hurricanes New tools help co

99、mmunities measure impactof reducing greenhouse gases The National Blend of Models forms anaccurate basis for forecasts Estimating the economic benefits of thetornado warning improvement and extensionprogram Integrating probabilistic hazards informationinto hazard services Improving North American he

100、at waveforecasts11Reducing Societal Impacts from Hazardous Weather and Other Environmental PhenomenaImproving space weather forecasts so astronauts are ready for exploration With the United States planning to return to the Moon and eventually travel to Mars,astronauts will be venturing outside the p

101、rotective shield of Earths magnetic field for the first time since the Apollo era.In anticipation of the accompanying increased vulnerability to energetic proton radiation resulting from solar storms,NOAA is working to improve the accuracy of its forecasts and warnings of such hazardous conditions.E

102、nergetic proton radiation can impact human health and the functionality of computer equipment.NOAA has partnered with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA)and the National Science Foundation(NSF)to support scientific research to advance our predictive capabilities.Research progress

103、 was highlighted at NOAAs Space Weather Workshop in April 2019,and NOAA is working with NASA to define the forecasting services needed for upcoming human space exploration missions.These research and service improvements will not only benefit future astronauts,but will also improve satellite operati

104、ons,which are also impacted by proton radiation,and play a vital role in the nascent commercial space travel industry.Space weather can jeopardize the technologies we rely on daily.Image credit:NOAAListening to solar stormsHigh school students listening to audio tracks of NOAA satellite data have id

105、entified the sounds of solar storms buffeting Earths magnetic field.The results of a United Kingdom-led citizen science project suggest that the approach of converting physical data into sound signals could help NOAA and other scientists make sense of massive amounts of data from satellites and othe

106、r instruments.Earths magnetic shield,which protects against harmful radiation from the sun and more distant sources,is full of ultra-low frequency waves that occur at a much lower frequency than the range of human hearing.By speeding up the audio files so humans could heara process called sonificati

107、onone year of raw data became six minutes of audio.NOAA scientists gathered data using NOAAs geostationary satellites and made it,including the full audible dataset,publicly available.12Reducing Societal Impacts from Hazardous Weather and Other Environmental PhenomenaImproving communication of forec

108、ast uncertainty and risk informationThrough a NOAA-funded Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes EXperiment-Southeast(VORTEX-SE)grant,researchers are studying risk communication to improve the Weather Enterprises understanding of expert interpretations and uses of different types of in

109、formation,especially probabilistic information,in warning decisions.To this end,the researchers are examining concepts of uncertainty and confidence that arise between multiple expert groups,like the Storm Prediction Center,a local Weather Forecast Office(WFO),and their partners in emergency managem

110、ent.Focusing on cool and warm tornado seasons in the southeastern United States,the team is combining different qualitative methods to build new knowledge:how meteorologists at national centers,WFOs,and their core partners conceptualize uncertainty and confidence;and,how these concepts emerge throug

111、h various interactions and influence risk communication among these groups leading up to and during tornado events.Results from this study may inform changes made to practices of communication of uncertainty information among expert communities.Members of the public can recieve severe weather alerts

112、 through a variety of mediums.Image credit:NOAAVORTEX-SE:Insights into the structure and predictability of southeastern U.S.tornadic storms Researchers are using high-resolution surface observations near Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes EXperiment-Southeast(VORTEX-SE)storms to as

113、sociate the magnitude and shape of cold pools of air with the production of tornadoes.One completed case,from April 30,2017,has shown that the magnitude of the cold pool distinguishes tornadic and nontornadic portions of the line of storms.Ensemble sensitivity analysis has been applied to retrospect

114、ive High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble(HRRRE)simulations of specific VORTEX-SE cases to understand what features in the upstream state drive increases in storm rotation later.The team has some initial insights into what improvements can be made to the sampling strategy in future field campaigns

115、to yield the most improvement in forecasts of severe storms.13Reducing Societal Impacts from Hazardous Weather and Other Environmental PhenomenaMeteotsunami detection and climatologyNOAA applied an automated approach to identify meteotsunamisatmospherically forced ocean waves with characteristics si

116、milar to seismic tsunamisfrom 125 NOAA tide gauges along the U.S.east coast over a 22 year period,1996-2017.The study found that meteotsunamis occur frequently(about 25 per year),but the vast majority of them are small,with a wave height less than 1.5 feet.They were found to occur most frequently in

117、 the winter and summer months,especially in July,and most often in the Carolinas,northern Florida,and Long Island Sound.Approximately one event per year had a wave height exceeding two feet,which is currently categorized as a potentially impactful event.For example,the meteotsunami observed on June

118、13,2013 in New Jersey and along the East Coast reached about two feet and caused several injuries and damage to boats.NOAA also performs this work on the Great Lakes,and NOAA NWS will support ongoing efforts identifying and warning about these potentially hazardous events.The derecho system which ca

119、used the June 13,2013 meteotsunami as it passes offshore of New Jersey.Photo credit:Buddy DenhamThe windsonde team prepares for a balloon launch during a storm in Nebraska in late May.Photo credit:Christian Patterson/University of Oklahoma Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies/N

120、OAA/National Severe Storms LaboratorySaving more lives and property with improved timing/path prediction for tornadoesMultiple research teams follow severe thunderstorms to study how factors like wind speed,temperature,humidity and pressure may reveal the small-scale structures in a supercell storm

121、and how it contributes to tornado formation.Targeted Observation by Radars and Unmanned Aircraft Systems of Supercells,or TORUS,involves more than 50 researchers using 20 tools to measure the atmosphere,including unmanned aircraft systems,mobile radars,and NOAAs Hurricane Hunter aircraft.The teams c

122、onduct fieldwork in a 367,000-square-mile area of the Central Great Plains.The data the researchers collect will be used to improve conceptual models of supercell thunderstorms.Roughly a dozen radar,ballooning,unmanned aerial vehicle,and ground-based observations teams will travel into the storm,alo

123、ng with a team in a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying just outside the storm,to provide a data-driven,multi-dimensional view of each storm system.14Reducing Societal Impacts from Hazardous Weather and Other Environmental PhenomenaNew NOAA satellite data are helping improve tool to predict severe

124、 Great Lakes snowstorms It is notoriously difficult to forecast the location and intensity of lake-effect snow storms in the Great Lakes region.These frequent snow storms are produced by heat and moisture exchanges between the lake surface and overlying atmosphere during outbreaks of cold air from t

125、he Arctic.These storms create hazards and socioeconomic impacts on Great Lakes communities,bringing with them heavy snow,blowing snow,reduced visibilities,and hazardous roads.New NOAAsatellite data are helping improve predictions of Great Lakes snowstorms.The Lake Effect Nowcasting Tool,created by N

126、OAA NWS and the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies,leverages the high spatial and temporal resolution of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Series(GOES-R)satellite images with the NWS Next Generation Weather Radar(NEXRAD)and surface snowfall observations

127、to help improve estimates of total snowfall and predictability of snowfall location.The Lake Effect Nowcasting Tool will be applied in real-time during the 2019-2020 winter season at the Marquette,Michigan,National Weather Service office in a research and development setting.By connecting cloud prop

128、erties obtained from GOES-R to snowfall estimates from ground-based instrumentation,this research enables forecasters to better estimate the impact these lake-effect storms will have on Great Lakes communities.“The Enhanced Lake Effect Nowcasting Tool is a great example of research to operations,as

129、NOAA-sponsored scientists are working directly with NWS forecasters to improve satellite-based snowfall estimates.”-Dr.Louis Uccellini,Director,NWSLake-effect snowstorm traversing the Great Lakes region as captured by NOAA-20 VIIRS(true color)on January 27,2019.Image credit:NOAA15Reducing Societal I

130、mpacts from Hazardous Weather and Other Environmental PhenomenaApplying machine learning to improve severe weather forecastingNOAA is harnessing the power of machine learning to improve warnings for severe weather and reduce the impacts of those hazards.A recently funded Joint Hurricane Testbed proj

131、ect is exploring the use of machine learning methods to predict rapid intensification of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones.The product,which uses an ensemble of probabilistic machine learning methods,was informally tested during the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane season and was tested during the 2019 Atlant

132、ic season with the goal of eventually transitioning it to operations for NOAA NWS.New modeling capabilities to advance severe weather predictions within a Unified Forecast SystemNOAA has initiated a multi-year effort to develop a Unified Forecast System(UFS)spanning local to global domains and sub-h

133、ourly to seasonal predictive time scales in order to dramatically improve U.S.operational weather and hurricane forecasting.The UFS uses NOAAs Finite-Volume on a Cubed Sphere(FV3)dynamic core and was implemented operationally for global weather predictions in 2019,but is still being developed for re

134、gional storm scale applications.As researchers showed significant results for U.S.-wide storm scale modeling in 2018,they accelerated their efforts in 2019 through the developmentof a stand-alone-regional(SAR)version of FV3 that saved significant computational resources,enablingmore advanced data as

135、similation for improved short-range forecasts.During the 2019 NOAA HazardousWeather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment(SFE),several agencies ran configurations of SAR FV3with very promising results.The testbeds preliminary analysis of subjective ratings from this experimentshow that a configurati

136、on run by NOAA Research performed slightly better than NOAAs operational short-term prediction model(the High Resolution Rapid Refresh HRRR),and had the most accurate convectiveevolution over central Oklahoma for a potential high impact event on May 20,2019.AFForecast radar(shaded)and storm rotation

137、(black contours)from versions of SAR FV3 run by(a)NSSL and(c)EMC,(b)the HRRR,and(d)corresponding observations.The forecastswere made a day in advance and arevalid at 4pm on May 20th.The averagesubjective ratings,on a scale of 1(verypoor)to 10(very good),are indicated atthe bottom right.Image credit:

138、NOAA16Reducing Societal Impacts from Hazardous Weather and Other Environmental PhenomenaNew research uses laboratory and airborne field measurements to understand climate and air quality effects of wildfiresIncreases in wildfire frequency and intensity in the western United States due to climate cha

139、nge and other factors have raised questions about the impact of biomass smoke on climate and air quality.During the summer of 2019,NOAA and National Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA)led Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality,(FIREX-AQ),which brought together scien

140、tists from the Department of Energy,Naval Research,the National Science Foundation,the National Academies of Science and 22 U.S.universities to investigate impacts from wildfires and agricultural fires across the continental U.S.The team deployed a highly sophisticated set of satellite,airborne,and

141、ground instruments to investigate smoke from ignition to dispersion.The major airborne platform included NASA and NOAA aircrafts.The 2019 field mission built on laboratory results from an intensive 2016 study of biomass emissions at the U.S.Forest Service Fire Science Laboratory in Missoula,Montana

142、that produced the most detailed characterizations of gaseous and particle species in biomass smoke to date.NOAA OAR/Earth System Research Laboratory/Chemical Sciences Division and FIREX-AQ partners use an array of instruments.Image credit:NOAA.NOAA advancements for subseasonal to seasonal severe wea

143、ther forecastsNOAA researchers and partners are exploring the development of severe weather forecasts in the subseasonal to seasonal(S2S)time frame.NOAA researchers partnered with scientists at Columbia University and established relationships between the Madden Julian Oscillation(MJO)climate phenom

144、enon and U.S.tornado occurrence.In a related project funded by a NOAA grant,Colorado State University scientists have developed a statistical methodology that in development mode allows skillful weekly forecasts of opportunity based on the MJO,identifying parameters favorable to severe weather as we

145、ll as actual tornado and hail activity.The experimental forecast model has significant skill in regions such as the Plains and the Southeast,potentially providing stakeholders with valuable extended forewarning(2-5 week lead times)of when and where potentially deadly severe thunderstorm activity is

146、likely to occur.In the future,these efforts could expand and complement severe weather outlooks.1717Reducing Societal Impacts from Hazardous Weather and Other Environmental PhenomenaNew research probes the effects of wildfiresIn 2017 and 2018,wildfires in the western United States gave rise to some

147、of the highest levels of air pollutants ever seen in the U.S.Particulate matter less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter(PM2.5)and ozone are key regulated air pollutants with known health impacts on people.NOAA-funded University of Washington researchers analyzed existing air quality data,made new obse

148、rvations,and used statistical modeling to better understand the impacts from fires on PM2.5 and ozone concentrations.The team found that PM2.5 reached record levels at times during those two years in Missoula,Montana;Portland,Oregon;Seattle,Washington;and San Francisco,California.Ozone concentration

149、s were also exceptionally high on smoke days,with many cities seeing their highest concentrations in the last two decades.Scientists found that the days with highest PM2.5 levels are not the days with highest ozone levels.Instead,the highest ozone concentrations are usually seen on moderate smoky da

150、ys,not days with extremely high particulate concentrations.A key goal of the research is to understand the health implications of wildfires at a time when wildfires are increasing in the western United States.NOAA OARs Climate Program Office funded research that analyzed air quality data from wildfi

151、res.Photo credit:P.Cullis,NOAAProtecting lives and mitigating flood damage during hurricanes and tropical stormsAs part of the Agency Priority Goal effort,the NWS forecasted a High Risk of excessive rainfall and warned of catastrophic flooding three days in advance of Hurricane Florence in September

152、 2018.The excessive rainfall outlook and storm surge inundation mapping were posted prominently on the National Hurricane Center homepage and shared extensively through operational dissemination.This message was repeated and amplified by private sector and media partners.With this amount of lead tim

153、e,FEMA and States were able to pre-position swift water rescue boats and generators.Catastrophic flooding was observed,and FEMA,State,and local officials were ready to save lives and property.In addition,NOAA NWS provided experimental guidance for a number of national water models including forecast

154、 flood inundation extent maps that depicted areas of inundation based on peak forecast streamflow over the next 10 days.Using these flood inundation extents,NOAA NWS coordinated with FEMA to provide them shelter assessment maps,which were produced twice daily starting on 14 September for North Carol

155、ina and South Carolina.These products helped to provide additional situational awareness(beyond the 100 and 500 year flood maps FEMA typically uses)as to what shelters would still be accessible given the historical extent of this flood.Shelters were deemed“accessible”and plans were made to utilize e

156、ach location based on their proximity to the maximum flood inundation extent.NOAA NWS used the experience and data from Florence to help mitigate flooding damage in Texas from Tropical Storm Imelda(2019).These continuing efforts will help with FEMA efforts in getting people to shelters,enable effici

157、ent evacuations across flooded road systems,and ensure crowd sourcing is addressed.1818Reducing Societal Impacts from Hazardous Weather and Other Environmental PhenomenaIntegrating advanced high performance computing to improve forecasts of high impact events like hurricanesNOAA NWS researchers use

158、high-performance computing(HPC)systems to help meteorologists and other scientists use satellite imagery and data to improve the accuracy of forecasts,simulate dangerous weather patterns,and create better early warning systems for hurricanes,tsunamis,tornadoes,and other catastrophic weather events.T

159、he National Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA)and NOAA have partnered to build state-of-the-art supercomputing and data services for weather and climate researchers.As a result,scientists improved the architecture for NOAAs recently upgraded flagship weather model,the Global Forecast System(

160、GFS),with the inclusion of a new dynamical core called the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere(FV3).Scientific and performance evaluation has shown that the upgraded FV3-based GFS provides results equal to or better than the current global model in many measures.For example,results looked very promising for

161、both hurricanes Michael and Florence in 2018.This upgrade establishes foundational advancements for the future as NOAA improves observation quality control,data assimilationfor example,with new satellites such as Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite(GOES)and Unmanned Aircraft Systems(UA

162、S)dataand model physics.HPC has enabled the success of GFS FV3 and will continue to be a very important piece of NOAAs multi-hazard research.An example of FV3s capability to zoom in on critical weather events:here,the model resolution has been enhanced to better represent hurricanes threatening the

163、southeastern United States.The reverse side is coarser resolution because we are less concerned with that part of the world.By enhancing the resolution only over a part of the earth,we are able to economically get to ultra-high resolution simulations of important areas,or on a potentially-dangerous

164、storm,anywhere around the globe.The colors represent the grid spacing lengths,and the grid is partially outlined in black.Image credit:NOAANew tools help communities measure impact of reducing greenhouse gasesA new NOAA supported effort is helping communities that are reducing greenhouse gasessuch a

165、s carbon dioxide(CO2)measure the impact of their environmental efforts.Through the CO2-Urban Synthesis and Analysis(CO2-USA)project,NOAA Research and its partners are bringing together a network of researchers and stakeholders to build the right combination of instruments,data,and modeling technique

166、s to independently quantify carbon dioxide and methane emissions from specific urban areas.For example,in Boston,Massachusetts the team is analyzing how trees within the city influence greenhouse gas levels,and in Salt Lake City,Utah researchers have outfitted train lines with sensors to measure gre

167、enhouse gases and air quality in real time.NOAA and partners also built a next generation emissions inventory with the granularity needed for both atmospheric modeling and policy-making,which is being archived at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center under a multi-agenc

168、y partnership agreement.19Reducing Societal Impacts from Hazardous Weather and Other Environmental PhenomenaThe National Blend of Models forms an accurate basis for forecastsThe National Blend of Models(NBM)uses data from models within and outside of NOAA NWS to create a more accurate and consistent

169、 starting point for weather forecasts across the United States.The latest version of the NBM is set to be released in 2020 and will improve the NBMs ability to provide aviation,fire weather,water resources,and marine guidance to protect life and property.A few highlights associated with this upcomin

170、g release include:(1)enhancements and new products added to the Contiguous United States,Alaska,and Puerto Rico regions to improve precipitation forecasts;(2)addition of statistical uncertainty information for daytime maximum temperatures and nighttime minimum temperatures,10 meter wind speeds,and 1

171、0 meter wind gusts;(3)new additions to aviation guidance to allow airport managers the ability to plan aviation operations through 72 hours;and(4)updates to the NBM text product,which provides NBM guidance at individual locations for various timeframes,including a text message that provides short-te

172、rm and extended range guidance at stations.Example of the National Blend of Models 17-hour guidance for surface-based convective available potential energy used by forecasters for the prediction of convection.Image credit:The NOAA NWS Meteorological Development Laboratorys internal ViewerEstimating

173、the economic benefits of the tornado warning improvement and extension programImproved tornado forecasts can reduce economic loss,injuries,and deaths.The Tornado Warning Improvement and Extension Project(TWIEP)improves tornado forecasts by offering the probability that a tornado will happen over the

174、 next hour,vastly extending the timeline of information provided to the public as storms approach,and filling the gap between the NOAA NWS watch and warning products.This project identifies two types of decision-makers,vulnerable populations and businesses,and estimates the impact of this new foreca

175、st information on tornado casualties and the economy.During 2019,a casualty model was built that identified the populations most vulnerable to tornadoes.Focus groups of businesses revealed their demand for longer lead-times and the potential for them to use probabilistic information in their decisio

176、ns.In 2020,based on interviews with identified vulnerable populations and econometric modeling of business decisions,the project will generate an estimate of anticipated economic savings from TWIEP information.20Integrating probabilistic hazards information into hazard services NOAA is testing a Haz

177、ard Services Probabilistic Hazard Information(HS-PHI)tool that bridges the current NOAA NWS warning process with recent societal and technological advances.Currently,NWS meteorologists“warn”for the near-term progression of thunderstorm threats by drawing a polygon shape around the storm and downstre

178、am,ahead of the anticipated direction of travel.All locations within the polygon represent an area at equal risk of being impacted by the imminent hazard.HS-PHI can help the forecaster generate and visualize moving probabilities of specific thunderstorm hazards over time,based on a continuous stream

179、 of forecast and warning information.This provides valuable uncertainty information for end-users to use in their decision-making process.NOAA is also testing a Threats-In-Motion(TiM)concept where severe weather warning polygons update every minute and march forward with the storm threat.TiM provide

180、s more meaningful information about the time of a hazards arrival and departure.When the forecaster workload is high,storms remain continually tracked and warned,and warnings are automatically cleared from locations where the threat is passed.HS-PHI and TiM offer improvements to the current warning

181、paradigm by modernizing the type of information disseminated,not only producing information for the end-user to take immediate life-saving action but also providing more analytical data for enhanced dimensions of service.The Hazard Services-PHI tool from the Global Systems Division of the OAR/Earth

182、System Research Laboratory and the National Severe Storms Laboratory,depicting a probabilistic hazard event with its plume of probability(center)the associated Hazard Information Dialog(left)where the forecaster enters the probability trend and other attributes,and the resulting Legacy NOAA NWS warn

183、ing(right)derived from the probabilistic hazard event.Image credit:NOAAReducing Societal Impacts from Hazardous Weather and Other Environmental PhenomenaImproving North American heat wave forecasts Heat waves are particularly damaging to life,property,and the environment.Accurate forecasting of extr

184、eme heat events,particularly on subseasonal(which forecast events up to three months in advance)timescales,is critical for public health preparation as vulnerability to extreme heat has increased over time,especially in urban areas.As a part of Subseasonal to Seasonal(S2S)Prediction Task Force activ

185、ities funded by NOAA grants,researchers have developed a methodology to seamlessly verify forecasts across weather and S2S timescales applicable to individual and probabilistic forecasts.Experts from national and international modeling centers,including NOAA,are refining the methodology for its pote

186、ntial operational use.In 2019,the project delivered a comprehensive evaluation of heat wave forecasting capability of multiple state-of-the-art,operational forecast models.Results are contributing to understanding and improving forecast model representation of heat waves and diagnosing sources of mo

187、del forecast errors and skill.Initial results suggest improvements in land surface(e.g.,soil moisture and land use/land cover)information for model initialization and parameterization could improve NOAAs operational heat wave forecast capability.21Science Highlights Sustainable Use and Stewardship o

188、f Ocean and Coastal ResourcesOur ocean,coasts,and Great Lakes are home to diverse ecosystems,support fisheries and aquaculture,and provide tourism and recreation opportunities.NOAA science seeks a better understanding of the biogeochemical and human processes that impact these resources and informs

189、their conservation,restoration,and sustainable use.In 2019,NOAAs scientific accomplishments for enhancing the sustainable use and stewardship of ocean and coastal resources included the following:New report describes contaminants in Great Lakes mussels New tools to monitor harmful algal blooms Ocean

190、 exploration activities reveal secrets of Blake Plateau OceanReports used for aquaculture siting Study measures the health of soft-bottom habitats in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary Michigan and Ohio communities use Tipping Point Planner tool to improve natural resource decision making an

191、d create action plans Economic impacts of marine debris on tourism-dependent communities Drones to map coastline and nearshore waters Engaging the public by live-streaming National Marine Sanctuaries exploration Advanced video and analytic technology to survey fish populations,protect habitat Using

192、drone technology to obtain critical new estimates of harbor seals in the Pribilof Islands Forecasting fisheries in a changing climate Northern Bering Sea surveys help set accurate fishing quotas Establishing a scientific foundation for bluemussel offshore aquaculture in the southernNew England Salmo

193、n may lose the ability to smell danger ascarbon emissions rise Seasonal-to-interannual forecasting for theocean and marine species on the Northeast U.S.Shelf Understanding the effects of environmentalchange on Pacific cod NOAA study shows ports that benefit mostfrom NOAAs Precision Navigation Progra

194、m Unraveling the story of salmon in the Pacificand Atlantic New tools to track oil spills,improveresponse Saildrones help monitor fisheries and changingocean conditions Four-month coral bleaching heat stressoutlook Sea Grant teams up with citizen scientists toimprove coastal preparedness Understandi

195、ng decisions to participate in oysteraquaculture in Maryland Environmental assessment of Bristol Bay,Alaska22Sustainable Use and Stewardship of Ocean and Coastal ResourcesNew report describes contaminants in Great Lakes musselsAs part of a multi-agency effort of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiativ

196、e,a new NOAA report documents the levels and distribution of contaminants of emerging concern(CECs)in mussels from the Great Lakes.CECs found in water,sediment,and biota are often unregulated,and their environmental fate and toxic effects are poorly understood.These include pesticides,hormones,flame

197、 retardants,pharmaceuticals,personal care products,and chemicals found in household and industrial detergents.Researchers detected these contaminants at sites distant from known sources of pollution.The team is using a variety of health metrics to assess the impacts of the contaminants on mussel hea

198、lth.Given their limited mobility,as well as their limited ability to metabolize chemical pollutants,these mussels serve as indicators to monitor the health and water quality of the Great Lakes.NOAA divers(Beau Braymer-left and Ed Johnson-right)prepare to collect invasive mussels from the bottom of L

199、ake Michigan with topside support from benthic ecologist Ashley Elgin.Scientists and staff from NOS/National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science and OAR/Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory have worked collaboratively since 1992 monitoring chemical contamination across the Great Lakes.Photo c

200、redit:NOAANew tools to monitor harmful algal bloomsHarmful algal blooms(HABs)pose a growing threat to human health and the ecology and economy of the West Florida Shelf.In 2018,a massive HAB occurred in this region and caused widespread mortality of fish and wildlife.This HAB created a human health

201、hazard due to aerosolized toxin from the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis,which was the main species responsible for the bloom.Satellite products showed the areas of extremely high bloom density and the explosive growth of the bloom in July of 2018,until it covered more than 100 miles of the Florida co

202、ast.In addition,using extensive,new oceanographic data from glider-mounted instruments and results from computer modeling,NOAA NOS-funded researchers found an additional patch near the sea bottom offshore of Clearwater Beach,which modeling indicates may have come onshore to add to the bloom in Pinel

203、las County.NOAA NOS HAB Event Response projects aided Florida organizations in quickly mobilizing additional sample collection and analysis during the bloom and supplemented data available on changes in the blooms severity,duration,and location to mitigate its impacts on public health,coastal econom

204、ies,and wildlife.As part of its coordinated,nationwide program,NOAA has been developing satellite-based monitoring capabilities to detect and track existing blooms,as well as forecast future ones.This information will provide local authorities and communities with timely information for planning pur

205、poses as well as for health warnings and coastal condition updates.The approach is proving to be effective for detecting Karenia brevis HABs,and will assist NOAAs monitoring and forecasting system to help Florida communities deal with these blooms.23Ocean exploration activities reveal secrets of Bla

206、ke PlateauOver the last two years,NOAA Research and its partners have fundamentally changed our understanding of the Blake Plateau on the southeastern United States continental margin.Through bathymetric mapping and visual surveys of this poorly explored area,scientists on recent expeditions have en

207、countered previously unknown features,including extensive,dense populations of the cold-water,reef-building coral Lophelia pertusa.Some of these findings were in areas of the plateau previously believed to be flat,featureless,and composed primarily of soft sediment.This work is also credited with co

208、nfirmation of the largest deep-sea coral reef habitat documented in U.S.waters to date.The location of these features beneath or adjacent to the Gulf Stream,one of the most studied currents in the world,highlights the importance of extending bathymetric mapping coverage within the U.S.Exclusive Econ

209、omic Zone(EEZ)in support of Seabed 2030 and NOAAs goal to fully map and characterize the U.S.EEZ.Data from these expeditions will help improve our understanding of the deep-ocean habitats of the U.S.continental margin and the connections between communities throughout the Atlantic Basin and,pending

210、further analysis,could inform fisheries management decisions.Sustainable Use and Stewardship of Ocean and Coastal ResourcesThe remotely operated vehicle Deep Discoverer(D2)was used to image unexplored areas of the Blake Plateau,Blake Ridge,Blake Escarpment,submarine canyons offshore of North Carolin

211、a.Photo credit:NOAA24Sustainable Use and Stewardship of Ocean and Coastal ResourcesOceanReports used for aquaculture sitingThe new OceanReports web tool provides users with specialized“ocean neighborhood”analyses,including maps and graphics,by analyzing more than 100 ocean datasets instantaneously.D

212、eveloped by NOAA and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management,this tool allows users to draw custom areas within the U.S.Exclusive Economic Zonethe area of ocean in the United States jurisdiction,which extends 200 miles offshoreand get detailed information about habitats and species,industries in the a

213、rea,potential hazards such as undersea cables or shipwrecks,economic value of ocean commerce,and other detailed oceanographic information.OceanReports web tool.Photo credit:MaromeCadastre.govStudy measures the health of soft-bottom habitats in the Florida Keys National Marine SanctuaryNOAA NOS scien

214、tists completed a study of soft-bottom habitats in offshore areas of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary(FKNMS).The study will help inform the sustainable management of the sanctuary,which is important to the regions environmental and economic health.While the area is well known for coral ree

215、fs and extensive seagrass beds,soft-bottom sediments are very common.These sediments support diverse communities of bottom-dwelling(benthic)invertebrates that play vital roles in the decomposition of organic matter,nutrient cycling,and energy flow to higher levels of the food chain.The sediments als

216、o represent an important sink for chemical contaminants,and the condition of the benthic community can provide a reliable and sensitive indicator for evaluating the biological significance of sediment-associated stressors.Although some of the sediment toxicity assays indicated a positive(toxic)respo

217、nse,sediment concentrations of trace metals,hydrocarbons(PAHs),pesticides,and polychlorinated biphenyls(PCBs)were below the upper values for sediment quality guidelines.Hence,the observed toxicity in these samples was likely caused by other,unmeasured stressors or confounding factors.Otherwise,the r

218、esults of this study suggest that the sediments and overlying waters in the surveyed(offshore)area of FKNMS seem to be in good condition with respect to dissolved oxygen,targeted contaminants,total organic carbon,and benthic species richness,diversity,and abundance.25Michigan and Ohio communities us

219、e Tipping Point Planner tool to improve natural resource decision making and create action plansIllinois-Indiana Sea Grants Tipping Point Planner team helped two communities in Michigan and Ohio develop action plans to protect natural resources.For local planners,balancing community growth and envir

220、onmental health can be a challenge.Putting down roads,building along waterways,or converting prairies to farmland puts stress on local ecosystemssometimes so much that it can trigger rapid and potentially irreversible shifts in how they function.When communities are armed with science-based environm

221、ental limits,or tipping-points,they can identify critical areas requiring protection or restoration to improve watershed ecosystem health.Illinois-Indiana Sea Grants Tipping Point Planner is a web-based decision-support system to explore policy and management interventions to keep aquatic ecosystems

222、 from reaching critical tipping points and moving to unstable conditions.The Tipping Point team updated the decision support system,redesigned the website,and conducted two community programs in Michigan and Ohio.Each meeting series included an education and vision session with local stakeholders an

223、d action-planning meetings with steering committees composed of local experts.The Tipping Point Planner team collaborated with the Au Gres,Michigan,and Perrysburg,Ohio communities to improve land-management decision-making and restoration by targeting nutrient loading and land use practices that imp

224、act Great Lakes food webs,algal blooms,and tributary fishery values.As a result of these efforts,113 participants used the Tipping Point Planner decision-support tool to evaluate ecosystem services and these two communities developed action plans to guide conservation and management of ecological re

225、sources.Illinois-Indiana Sea Grant professionals work with members of the Perrysburg,Ohio community to utilize the Tipping Point Planner.Photo credit:Illinois-Indiana Sea GrantSustainable Use and Stewardship of Ocean and Coastal Resources26Sustainable Use and Stewardship of Ocean and Coastal Resourc

226、esEconomic impacts of marine debris on tourism-dependent communitiesNOAA NOS funded a regional pilot study to evaluate two types of economic impacts that result from doubling and nearly eliminating marine debris on beaches:the loss or gain of recreational value to beach visitors,and the economic imp

227、act from reduced or increased spending on beach visits in four selected coastal areas across the contiguous United States.The four study areas were Gulf of Mexico beaches in Alabama,Atlantic Ocean beaches in Delaware and Maryland,Lake Erie beaches in Ohio,and Pacific Ocean beaches in Orange County,C

228、alifornia.The study revealed that doubling the current amount of marine debris on beaches within the study areas would decrease the number of days visitors spend on those beaches,which would result in fewer tourism dollars spent,and translate into a decrease in local jobs.Conversely,reducing the cur

229、rent amount of marine debris to almost zero would result in more tourism dollars spent,and translate into an increase in local jobs.In addition to improving our understanding of the economic impact of marine debris,the results from this study may inform the prioritization of areas where prevention a

230、nd removal efforts may be needed.Drones to map coastline and nearshore watersNOAA NOS scientists,in collaboration with Oregon State University,Wayne Wright Consulting,and local partners,used drones and photogrammetric software to map land elevations and water depths around St.Croix in the U.S.Virgin

231、 Islands and Santa Cruz Island,California.Drones may offer an efficient and accurate way to map coastal regions that are difficult to access,providing many organizations the photographs,elevation,and depth data needed to inform coastal planning and management decisions.Data from these efforts are be

232、ing used to identify optimal platforms,payloads,and parameters to define the environmental and operational limitations,and to better understand how drone technologies complement and advance NOAAs existing seafloor mapping capabilities.This figure shows an aerial drone collecting photographs along th

233、e coast of St.Croix.These photographs(along with photogrammetric software)were used to derive depths for this nearshore area.Depth data in nearshore areas are challenging,dangerous,and expensive to collect using conventional technologies.Aerial drones combined with photogrammetric software have the

234、potential to fill this data gap safely and efficiently.Image credit:NOAA and Oregon State UniversityThis figure shows the integration of different data streams from aerial and surface drones to map nearshore areas.The light blue dots show where the aerial drone collected photographs,and the dark blu

235、e polygons show the footprint of these photographs.Overlapping photographs were stitched together using photogrammetric software to create a single photomosaic and calculate seafloor depths.The rainbow lines show where the surface drone collected depths to evaluate the accuracy of these photogrammet

236、ric products.Image credit:NOAA and Oregon State University27Engaging the public by live-streaming National Marine Sanctuaries explorationIn 2019,NOAA and partners live-streamed the exploration of seven sanctuary sites,engaging broad audiences in ocean discovery using telepresence technology.These mi

237、ssions represent the first telepresence-enabled observations of a number of sanctuary resources,including the first ever observation of mesophotic coral spawning in Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary.Major science goals include seafloor mapping,characterizing deep-sea biological communiti

238、es,and assessments of key archaeological sites.With the help of partners from Ocean Exploration Trust,Global Foundation for Ocean Exploration,and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,more than 8,500 square kilometers within and adjacent to sanctuary sites were mapped during FY19 cruises.In addition

239、to meeting science goals,these cruises promoted public engagement in sanctuary exploration through ship-to-shore communication events with scientists,live broadcasts from sanctuary sites,and live streams of underwater footage.Live feeds of sanctuary exploration were viewed by more than 23,000 people

240、,and more than 4,600 people engaged with scientists via ship-to-shore connections.Telepresence-enabled exploration took place this year in Thunder Bay,Greater Farallones,Cordell Bank,Monterey Bay,Stellwagen Bank,and Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuaries as well as the National Marine Sanct

241、uary of American Samoa.Sustainable Use and Stewardship of Ocean and Coastal ResourcesEngaging the public by live-streaming National Marine Sanctuaries Exploration.Image credit:NOAA OAR/Office of Ocean Exploration and Research28Sustainable Use and Stewardship of Ocean and Coastal ResourcesAdvanced vi

242、deo and analytic technology to survey fish populations,protect habitatNOAA Fisheries is continually developing new methods to better collect and process data from cameras and other technologies used to survey fisheries stocks in habitat where trawl surveys are not possible.Historically,cameras with

243、restricted fields of view have only been able to image a small portion of the environment,potentially biasing the data they produce.NOAA Fisheries has now developed a spherical camera system(SphereCam),with a 360 degree field of view that improves understanding of large schools of fish by imaging a

244、larger area,recording habitat data,and accounting for statistical biases with video-count data.Next generation systems are being designed with improved cameras/sensors and computing to handle high-volume video streams.To account for the large volume of data collected from camera images and video,NOA

245、A partnered with academia and private industry to develop an open-source,modular software toolbox that uses machine learning and computer vision to optimize annotation of image data.The Video and Image Analytics for a Marine Environment(VIAME)system is an end-to-end open source software system that

246、objectively processes underwater and aerial survey imagery.VIAME is currently being used by NOAA Fisheries to identify and measure walleye pollock,assist with processing scallop survey data,facilitate Gulf of Mexico reef fish video surveys,and assist with bottomfish video survey data in Hawaii.Examp

247、le of analysis using VIAME during a Southeast Fisheries Science Center workshop.This image shows detections and identifications of multiple species in one of a sequence of images using a detector trained using VIAMEs deep learning algorithms.Photo credit:NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-PIFSC-83Using

248、drone technology to obtain critical new estimates of harbor seals in the Pribilof IslandsSince the summer of 2018,NOAA Fisheries has collaborated with the Aleut Community of St.Paul Island Ecosystem Conservation Office and the Duke University Marine Robotics and Remote Sensing Laboratory to obtain c

249、ritical new estimates of harbor seals in the Pribilof Islands,Alaska.This small stock of harbor seals is an isolated population in the Bering Sea that has been poorly studied and monitored.In 2018,researchers conducted the first ever comprehensive aerial survey of Pribilof Island harbor seals,using

250、two advanced technology drone platforms.Researchers evaluated the technologies and analyzed the counts for incorporation into the draft 2019 Alaska Marine Mammal Stock Assessment Report.In total,229 harbor seals were counted during the 2018 Pribilof Island survey.Although harbor seals are not numero

251、us in the area,they are an important indicator of marine ecosystem health.Harbor seals are a key part of an ecosystem that has sustained the Aleut community since the Pribilof Islands were permanently settled in the late 1700s.The drone survey technology has proven extremely useful for monitoring su

252、ch a remote seal population.In 2019,the monitoring was operationalized and the Aleut Community of St.Paul is leading the efforts to monitor this locally important species.29Forecasting fisheries in a changing climateChanging climate and ocean conditions present new challenges to our ability to susta

253、inably manage our nations valuable fisheries.NOAA scientists are conducting and using new research that takes into account the changing climate and ocean conditions to inform fisheries management decisions.NOAA Fisheries published recommendations for how to manage shifting species distributionsand c

254、hanging productivity,two major impacts of changing climate and ocean conditions.The recommendations suggest six key steps:detecting changes,understanding mechanisms of changes,evaluating risks and priorities,conducting assessments and developing forecasts,communicatingadvice,and making management de

255、cisions.For each step,the team identified challenges and providedrecommendations to address those challenges.These recommendations are described in a NOAATechnical Memorandum and are designed to help fishery managers respond to changing climate andocean conditions and improve stewardship of our Nati

256、ons living marine resources(LMRs).Over the last two decades,the productivity and distribution of many LMRs within the U.S.NortheastShelf have been changing as the shelf s ocean waters warm faster than any other marine region withinthe United States.In 2019,NOAA Research published laboratory results

257、suggesting that the northernstock of black sea bass will continue to shift poleward as the ocean continues to warm.Scientists found that sea bass perform optimally at water temperatures of about 24 degrees Celsius(C);athigher temperatures,the fish experience metabolic performance declines.U.S.Northe

258、ast Shelf oceanwaters are projected to increase above 24 degrees C over the next 80 years.In addition to the blacksea bass research,NOAA is assessing how ocean changes will affect other populations of valuablefisheries including spiny dogfish and squid.Image credit:Karp et al.2019,ICES Journal of Ma

259、rine Science,76(5):1305-1315Sustainable Use and Stewardship of Ocean and Coastal Resources30Sustainable Use and Stewardship of Ocean and Coastal ResourcesNorthern Bering Sea surveys help set accurate fishing quotasIn 2019,NOAA Fisheries collected data to be used to set sustainable fishing quotas for

260、 Alaska fishing communities in 2020 with the completion of its 34th annual southeastern Bering Sea shelf bottom trawl survey and its third full survey of the Northern Bering Sea.As in 2018,the eastern Bering Sea had one of its warmest winters on record with the maximum sea ice extent occurring in la

261、te January,months earlier than the long-term average(late March-early April).By early summer,sea surface temperatures in the northern Bering Sea were up to seven degrees Celsius above normal as all of Alaska experienced a heat wave that broke temperature records.Once again the colder pool of water n

262、ormally covering the middle shelf was not significantly present in the southeastern survey area.At the same time,scientists and residents of the Bering Strait region reported increased numbers of young dead seals and walruses washing up on the beaches.There were also reports of increased numbers of

263、dead or dying seabirds observed in the region.During the northern survey of fish and crab resources,scientists documented continued presence of large numbers of Alaska pollock and Pacific cod and significant declines in Arctic species typically encountered in the region relative to a previous survey

264、 in 2010.Without the increased understanding of fish stock condition and distribution,resource managers would have had to set much more conservative fishing quotas.A key part of this effort was continued outreach to local communities in the Bering Strait Region,the commercial fishing industry,and re

265、source managers to keep them informed of survey activities and provide current information of how warm conditions in the Arctic are impacting the distribution of fish and crabs and marine foodwebs.NOAA Ship REUBAN LASKER.Photo credit:NOAAEstablishing a scientific foundation for blue mussel offshore

266、aquaculture in the southern New EnglandNOAA Fisheries scientists are looking at the scope and scale of the opportunity for domestic mussel production in the U.S.Exclusive Economic Zone off southern New England.Scientists have created a habitat suitability assessment using existing monitoring data,wh

267、ich showed that most locations on the southern New England shelf are,at some depth,suitable for blue mussel cultivationat least in terms of temperature and food availability.NOAA partnered with Salem State University to“ground-truth”assumptions about suitable habitats using ship-board mussel filtrat

268、ion and feeding measurements at their experimental mussel farm off the coast of Massachusetts.The NOAA team has begun extending the habitat assessment approach to explore the potential for sea scallop aquaculture in coastal Maine.NOAA is anticipating new seafood cultivation opportunities,and providi

269、ng science products to promote and diversify U.S.aquaculture.31Sustainable Use and Stewardship of Ocean and Coastal ResourcesSalmon may lose the ability to smell danger as carbon emissions riseNOAA Fisheries research showed the potential consequences of ocean acidification on one of the most iconic

270、fish of the Pacific Northwest,salmon.Salmon depend on their sense of smell to avoid predators,sniff out prey,and navigate to their spawning grounds.Researchers from NOAA Fisheries and the University of Washington found that the coho salmons ability to process and respond to smells is affected by hig

271、her levels of carbon dioxide in the water,which causes a decrease in the water pH in a process called ocean acidification.Behavioral and neural tests demonstrated that,in higher carbon dioxide conditions and lower pH,fish could likely smell odorssuch as those indicating a predator attackbut the fish

272、 did not translate the smell into an appropriate behavioral response.Seasonal-to-interannual forecasting for the ocean and marine species on the Northeast U.S.ShelfThe Northeast U.S.Shelf(NES)Large Marine Ecosystem supports some of the most commercially valuable fisheries in the world and has experi

273、enced dramatic ecosystem change in response to fishing pressure,climate variability,and climate change.The combined effects of these changes create a huge challenge for fisheries stock assessment in this region.The stock assessment forecast has been typically based on the biology of the fish and is

274、uncertain.Incorporating physical environmental variablessuch as ocean temperatureinto the stock assessment population model and subsequent forecast could improve model performance and reduce uncertainty in future population size.A project team participating in the NOAA Marine Prediction Task Force i

275、s working on developing a seasonal-to-interannual statistical prediction system(336 month time scale)for ocean temperatures on the NES.The approach is tailored to NOAAs needs for fisheries stock assessment.Winter flounder(Pseudopleuronectes americanus)abundance has declined in the southern New Engla

276、nd-Mid Atlantic region over the last 30 years and studies suggest that warming presents a challenge to recovery of this stock.Photo credit:Jerry Prezioso,NOAA/Northeast Fisheries Science Center32Understanding the effects of environmental change on Pacific codTwo studies by NOAA Fisheries promote the

277、 sustainability of the Pacific cod fishery in Alaska by understanding the impacts of ocean acidification and warming on cod larvae.In a laboratory study,researchers found that two-week-old cod larvae reared at elevated carbon dioxide(CO2)levels were smaller than larvae reared at current CO2 levels.H

278、owever,the research also found that by five weeks of age,the CO2-exposed fish seemed to have recovered from their slow start.In another study,researchers tracked the impacts of the three-year marine heatwave,known as the“Warm Blob,”which occurred from 2014-2016.New laboratory data suggest that marin

279、e heatwaves can significantly reduce the habitat quality of Pacific cod spawning grounds,while field studies using nets and baited underwater cameras tracked the abundance of juvenile fish.These researchers are now partnering with colleagues at Oregon State University to model the multi-faceted impa

280、cts of increasing temperature and CO2 levels on the survival and distribution of young Pacific cod to predict long-term changes in recruitment potential in this critical fishery species.Sustainable Use and Stewardship of Ocean and Coastal ResourcesPacific cod.Photo credit:NOAA NMFS/Alaska Fisheries

281、Science CenterNOAA study shows ports that benefit most from NOAAs Precision Navigation programNOAA NOS is conducting a socio-economic study to determine the ports that are most likely to benefit from adopting Precision Navigation,a tool that integrates real-time and forecast data with high-resolutio

282、n bathymetry to allow mariners to navigate in tight spaces and rapidly changing local conditions.The study will develop a port prioritization tool based on the amount of cargo entering and exiting the port,the number of accidents in the port,and the navigation challenges faced by the port.The study

283、will also determine cost benefit metrics for implementing Precision Navigation.This tool will be applied to the ports of New York/New Jersey and the Lower Mississippi where NOAA is currently implementing Precision Navigation projects.The study results will provide further guidance to NOAA regarding

284、which ports will benefit most from Precision Navigation and how these tools can best be used for future efforts.33Unraveling the story of salmon in the Pacific and AtlanticSalmon support important commercial,recreational,Tribal,and subsistence fisheries,but several species are at risk.The North Paci

285、fic Anadromous Fish Commission and North Atlantic Salmon Conservation Organization declared 2019 as the International Year of the Salmon(IYS)to provide a framework for international outreach and research for salmon conservation,and NOAA is a participant of IYS.NOAA Fisheries researchers study Atlant

286、ic and Pacific salmon in different life stages from freshwater rivers to the open ocean to better understand what determines whether they live or die.Along the West Coast,an internationalteam of biologists went into some ofthe roughest waters in the North PacificOcean in late winter to investigate t

287、he“black box”role of the open ocean inthe Pacific salmons life cycles.Twentyone scientists from five Pacific Rimcountries,including NOAA Fisheriesresearchers,spent a month in the Gulfof Alaska catching,measuring,andsampling salmon,and brought homethousands of samples for a wide rangeof chemical and

288、biological analysesover the coming months.As the firstexpedition in decades to study salmon inthe high seas,the research provided themost comprehensive study of the entireecosystem that salmon belong to.A hatchery smolt(top)captured in the Penobscot River Estuary that was likely injured during migra

289、tion and will not survive in the ocean versus a wild smolt(bottom)captured with no injuries.Photo credit:NOAA NMFS/Northeast Fisheries Science CenterAnother project completed during IYS was in theAtlantic,where NOAA Fisheries researchers useda number of studies on juvenile salmon(smolt)behavior to m

290、odel survival of hatchery-rearedAtlantic salmon released at different locationsalong a river.The researchers found that smoltsreleased into lower-river stocking sites reached theocean in higher numbers than those releasedelsewhere because they encountered fewer damsand had shorter migration.These re

291、sults highlightthe challenge to conserve this species,whichmigrates from freshwater rivers-often with dams-to the ocean.This information can be used bystate and Federal managers to better inform futuresalmon stocking strategies and work with thehydroelectric industry to minimize the impact ofdams.Sa

292、lmon caught on the high seas.Photo credit:NOAA NMFSSustainable Use and Stewardship of Ocean and Coastal Resources34Sustainable Use and Stewardship of Ocean and Coastal ResourcesNew tools to track oil spills,improve responseNew technology is helping improve our ability to characterize oil in the envi

293、ronment,both in the immediate aftermath of a spill to provide scientific support for response,and for longer term characterization in support of natural resource damage assessments.NOAA,in close partnershipwith the U.S.Coast Guard,the Bureau of Safety andEnvironmental Enforcement,U.S.Environmental P

294、rotectionAgency,academia,and multipleprivate research entities,isengaged in multiple airborneand space-based projectsinvolving a variety of platforms(e.g.,unmanned aerial systemsUASs,fixed wing platformin coordination with satellite)that are outfitted with oil-calibrated sensor packagesto detect and

295、 characterizeoil in the environment.Additionally,NOAA is activelydeveloping and testing multipleautonomous underwatervehicles(AUVs)and remotelyoperated vehicle(ROV)systemsto conduct three-dimensionalmapping of oil and gas in thewater column.These vehiclesinclude larger ones that cantravel over long

296、ranges aswell as smaller,portable,commercial-off-the-shelfvehicles.Oil identification and mapping during the response to the 2018 Lake Washington,Louisiana pipeline release.Data were collected from a fixed wing platform(airplane)using an RGB(red green blue)sensor calibrated for oil detection.This im

297、age was immediately developed into an oil thickness classification map during post-processing and used to guide on-water assets during the emergency response.Photo credit:Ocean ImagingNOAA NESDIS transitioned a new tool into operations that helps track in near real time oil spillinformation from ves

298、sels underway,moored,and involved in accidents;oil platform releases fromaccidents and damage due to hurricanes;natural seeps;and spills from land-based facilities whichmake their way to the water.The tool,called the automated Synthetic Aperture Radar(SAR)OilSpill Mapping product will help improve o

299、il spill response,protect public safety,and protect naturalresources that are crucial to a strong Blue Economy,clean water,and sustainable fisheries.35Saildrones help monitor fisheries and changing ocean conditionsNOAA uses a range of unmanned surface vehicles(USVs)as platforms and systems to collec

300、t environmental data.The new technologies are helping expand research that improves our understanding of weather,climate phenomena,and environmental processes.NOAA Fisheries used four Saildrone USVs to conduct coast-wide fisheries acoustic surveys andcompare the results to those collected by NOAA Sh

301、ip Bell M.Shimada on the same transects.The datacomparisons are used to evaluate the data obtained with new tools.Stock biomass data from fisheriesacoustic surveys are used to support fish stock assessments and inform management decisions.Byusing USVs,NOAA will be able to supplement shipboard survey

302、s and improve our understanding ofthe ecosystem and fish stocks that NOAA manages.In August 2019,an unmanned Saildrone completed the first autonomous circumnavigation ofAntarctica.The Saildrone carried an instrument developed by NOAA Research that collected oceanicand atmospheric carbon dioxide meas

303、urements.Despite hostile sea conditions,the USV completedthe 13,670 mile journey,and the data it collected will allow scientists to better understand carbondioxide processes in the Southern Ocean.Sustainable Use and Stewardship of Ocean and Coastal ResourcesA saildrone maneuvering by wind.Note the s

304、olar panels that are used to power the onboard instruments.Photo credit:Saildrone,Inc.36Sustainable Use and Stewardship of Ocean and Coastal ResourcesFour-month coral bleaching heat stress outlookAt least 500 million people rely on coral reefs for food,coastal protection,and their livelihoods.In pro

305、viding coral reef awareness and actionable information,NOAA NESDIS offers the Coral Bleaching Heat Stress Outlook among the various products and services designed to monitor our nations coral reefs.This Outlook blends several satellite data products for a more comprehensive regional alert for coral

306、bleaching and helps coral reef managers better understand the onset of light/temperature stress,its buildup,and the eventual resultant coral bleaching and associated mortality.NOAA data scientists found that the most recent Four-Month Coral Bleaching Heat Stress Outlook,by testing previous models,kn

307、own as hindcasting,enhanced NOAAs ability to predict the likelihood of coral bleaching heat stress up to four months in the future(the typical length of a bleaching season).This edition provides more accurate and reliable heat stress predictions than prior versions.Today,thanks to NOAAs work,local c

308、oral reef communities can work with decision makers and elected officials to improve coral reef management and regulation in a warming climate.Coral reefs are estimated to provide over$9.8 trillion annually based on their values from recreation,fish habitat,coastal protection,and cultural value.Blea

309、ched coral at Jarvis Island in the Pacific Remote Islands.Photo credit:NOAASea Grant teams up with citizen scientists to improve coastal preparednessA robust partnership led by Alaska Sea Grant and including the University of Alaska Anchorage and the state Division of Geological and Geophysical Surv

310、eys,is working with citizen scientists,including students,in Alaskan communities to collect information on shoreline erosion,storm surge,and wave conditions.The goal of the project is to use this information from monthly surveys in the NOAA NWS storm surge forecasting model to improve forecasts of s

311、torm surge and wave conditions.Alaska Sea Grant researchers collaborated with citizen scientists to estimate shoreline vulnerability to coastal hazards and trained citizen scientists to monitor shoreline erosion at six locations monthly.For example,in Utqiagvik(formerly known as Barrow),the northern

312、most city in the U.S.,Sea Grant researchers trained citizen scientists to monitor shoreline for erosion and flooding.Monitoring will take place over several years and the resulting data will be used to strengthen Utqiagviks erosion forecasting system so managers will know where the greatest threats

313、exist during any given storm.37Sustainable Use and Stewardship of Ocean and Coastal ResourcesUnderstanding decisions to participate in oyster aquaculture in MarylandNOAA-funded work through Maryland Sea Grant and the University of Maryland investigated Marylands wild oyster harvesters(watermen)and t

314、heir decisions related to oyster aquaculture.Preliminary findings indicate that watermen are increasingly involved in aquaculture while remaining active in the public oyster fishery.For many,aquaculture provides income that can be drawn upon if needed.Still,challenges remain.There are concerns over

315、initial aquaculture start-up costs and applying for loans,changing harvest practices,and competition for the best available Bay locations for oyster production.These findings helped inform state managers and Maryland Sea Grant extension agents regarding potential barriers to entry for watermen.An oy

316、ster farmer tends to his lines.Photo credit:Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant ConsortiumEnvironmental assessment of Bristol Bay,AlaskaNOAA NOS,in collaboration with the U.S.Fish and Wildlife Service,the University of Alaska Fairbanks,and the State of Alaska,completed an environmental characterization st

317、udy of the northeastern reaches of Bristol Bay,Alaska.Bristol Bay has one of the most productive and economically important salmon fisheries in the world.The juvenile salmon live in the estuary for a time after they migrate downstream,yet the bay has never been systematically surveyed for ecological

318、 conditions that could threaten the salmon.The researchers found that levels of toxic chemicals,e.g.,dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane(DDT),polychlorinated biphenyls(PCBs),metals and metalloids,except arsenic,were low relative to sediment quality guidelines.The scientists found no trace of a 2011 PCB

319、spill.The study region was virtually absent of significant sediment toxicity,except for selected locations in the vicinity of fish processing plant waste streams where toxic levels of ammonia were present.Resident fish were generally healthy and had few contaminants.Bottom sediment dwelling animal c

320、ommunities,such as worms,shrimp,and sea stars,were abundant.The estuary is pristine and uncontaminated,but development projects in the watershed need to be carefully designed to avoid harming this valuable and vulnerable fishery resource.The volcano steam vent on Mt.Redoubt.Photo credit:Ian Hartwell

321、38Science Highlights A Robust and Effective Research and Development EnterpriseEarth observations,models,and data form a foundation for NOAA science,and integrating social sciences into NOAAs foundational processes increases the accessibility,comprehension,and utility of NOAAs R&D.In 2019,NOAAs scie

322、ntific accomplishments for building a robust and effective research and development enterprise included the following:ProbSevere:Tool to improve severe weatherwarnings U.S.Argo Program-Global oceanobservations for understanding and predictionof climate variability Science clears the air in dust stor

323、m response Robotic ocean gliders collect data to improvehurricane forecasts Using a new product to better understandwater vapor NOAA satellite detects real-time volcanoash NOAA PolarWatch Improving national ocean modeling to meetinteragency needs Machine learning is improving theidentification of ha

324、rmful algal blooms Earth Prediction Innovation Center supportscommunity modeling Integrating satellite information on lightninglikely to improve hurricane forecasting Improved measuring of the Suns energyoutput Improving oil spill modeling and response Using big data to understand data-poorfisheries

325、 Launch of Marine Biodiversity ObservingNetwork Seascapes products on CoastWatch39A Robust and Effective Research and Development EnterpriseProbSevere:Tool to improve severe weather warningsCurrent satellite,radar,lightning detection,and Numerical Weather Prediction data sets contain a wealth of inf

326、ormation for identifying severe weather threats such as large hail,damaging wind,and tornadoes.The primary challenge is extracting the pertinent information from an enormous volume of data in a timely manner.The ProbSevere(short for“Probability of Severe”)project,led by NOAA NESDIS,is utilizing mach

327、ine learning to rapidly distill large volumes of environmental data into actionable information in support of NOAA NWS severe weather warning operations.Feedback from the numerous NOAA NWS forecasters that evaluated ProbSevere in NOAA testbeds and Weather Forecast Offices,including the 2019 Hazardou

328、s Weather Testbed,confirms ProbSevere often allows them to extend the lead time of severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings,thereby giving the public more time to seek shelter and prepare for severe weather impacts.The ProbSevere tool is planned to be transitioned to NOAA NWS operations in 2020 and

329、current research is aimed at further enhancing the capabilities through the use of artificial intelligence.NWS forecasters use ProbSevere to assess the potential for severe weather during the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed.Photo credit:Justin Sieglaff,University of Wisconsin-Cooperative Institute fo

330、r Meteorological Satellite StudiesU.S.Argo Program-Global ocean observations for understanding and prediction of climate variabilityArgo floats collect high-quality temperature and salinity profiles from the upper two kilometers(1.2 miles)of the ocean,and the program exemplifies international collab

331、oration on a scale rarely seen in the scientific community.The U.S.currently contributes roughly 1,800 floats to the Argo program approximately half of the global array.As of the end of 2019,Argo has 3,883 floats worldwide and achieved a major milestone delivering its two millionth ocean measurement

332、.NOAA Research is committing resources towards the Argo biogeochemical mission(whose sensors measure pH,nitrate,backscatter,fluorescence,and oxygen in addition to temperature and salinity),which will increase capacity across NOAA and within the U.S.to utilize this new sensor technology to better mon

333、itor and eventually predict ocean and marine ecosystem health.The Argo vision for a global full-depth and multidisciplinary array will enable a new range of forecasting capabilities,fundamental ocean research,climate assessments,and Blue Economy and ocean health benefits.40Science clears the air in dust storm responseNOAA Research works cooperatively with regional decision-makers to produce climat