1、2021 NOAA Science ReportU.S.Department of CommerceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNOAA Technical Memorandum NOAA Science Council-0042021 NOAA Science ReportIsha Renta,Gina Digiantonio,Emma Kelley,Gary Matlock,Eric Bayler,Sarah Davis,Judy Ghirardelli,Monica Grasso,Michelle Harmon,Micha

2、el Liddel,Anthony Marshak,Laura Newcomb,Stephan Smith,Jeffrey WielgusNOAA Silver Spring,MarylandMarch 2022noaaNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATIONNOAA Science Council2021 NOAA Science ReportIsha Renta,Gina Digiantonio,Emma Kelley,Gary Matlock,Eric Bayler,Sarah Davis,Judy Ghirardelli,Monic

3、a Grasso,Michelle Harmon,Michael Liddel,Anthony Marshak,Laura Newcomb,Stephan Smith,Jeffrey WielgusNOAA Silver Spring,MarylandMarch 2022UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCEGina Raimondo SecretaryNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATIONRichard W.Spinrad,Ph.D.Under Secretary of Commerce for Oce

4、ans and AtmosphereNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Science CouncilCraig N.McLean NOAA Science Council ChairCisco Werner,Ph.D.NOAA Science Council Vice ChairNOTICEThis document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government.The views and opini

5、ons of the authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency or Contractor thereof.Neither the United States Government,nor Contractor,nor any of their employees,make any warranty,express or implied,or assumes any legal liability or resp

6、onsibility for the accuracy,completeness,or useful-ness of any information,product,or process disclosed,or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights.Mention of a commercial company or product does not constitute an endorsement by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administr

7、ation.Use of information from this publication concerning proprietary products or the tests of such products for publicity or advertis-ing purposes is not authorized.AcknowledgementsLayoutMike WalkerDiversity and InclusionKenneth Bailey Shawna DoyleCopy edit and plain language reviewsJeremy Andrucyk

8、 Aya Collins Courtney Daniels Troy Kitch Renata Lana Michael Murphy Kate Naughten Abigail ReidAnjanette Riley Benjamin Rubenstein Caitlin ValentinePhoto disclaimerSome images appearing in this report depict activities during and after CDC COVID-19 mask guide-lines and travel restrictions were put in

9、 place.Cover PhotoNOAA Fisheries researchers and collaborators described a new species of baleen whale from the Gulf of Mexico.Photo credit:Laura Dias,NOAA Fisheries.(NMFS Permit#21938)ForewordNOAA is the Nations premier ocean,weather,atmospheric and climate agency,with a commitment to science,servi

10、ce and stewardship.In 2021,still under continuous challenges in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic,our scientists continuedwith the appropriate precautionsto execute world class research,development and operations to improve the lives and livelihoods of American citizens and of the world.These scient

11、ific achievements have been recognized by numerous outside organizations and are made possible by our highly skilled and dedicated workforce.This annual NOAA Science Report started when our current Administrator,Dr.Richard Spinrad,was formerly serving as the NOAA Chief Scientist and recognized the v

12、alue in reporting on research accomplishments.Many of the advances reported are the result of years of work,across a talented federal,university,and contract staff of scientists,engineers and technicians,and supported by the talents of the administrative teams of NOAA.The scientific highlights,award

13、s,bibliometrics,and educational spotlights in the report clearly dem-onstrate NOAAs commitment to advancing the opportunities for both ocean prosperity and protec-tion with the new blue economy,the importance of sound climate science to inform society,and Diversity,Equity,Inclusion and Accessibility

14、(DEIA).Please note also that we have redesigned our climate.gov website,provided significant contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)report and provide NOAAs commitments to addressing the climate crisis after the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference(COP26).With o

15、ur changing climate it is impera-tive that we continue to use our science for the betterment of all communities.NOAAs DEIA princi-ples are well incorporated through a workforce that values diversity and can implement its business practices to effectively meet the needs of all communities.I hope that

16、 all readers find in this report the benefits and impacts of NOAAs research products for the benefit of society.Thank you to every contributor to the report and to the important work described herein.I can only conclude that this Agencys mission attracts the most dedicated and remarkable people who

17、perform their work marvelously for the benefit of the American people.Thank you.Craig N.McLean Acting NOAA Chief ScientistCONTENTSForeword5Introduction7Guiding Principles 8Strategic Priorities 11Resources and Activities Supporting R&D 13Transitioning R&D 24science highlights 261.Reducing societal im

18、pacts from hazardous weather and other environmental phenomena 281.A Reducing societal impacts from hazardous weather281.A.1 Observations301.A.2 Models331.A.3 Forecasts361.A.4 Human Behavior381B.Climate change 401.B.1 Observation/Monitoring Systems421.B.2 Assess,Model,and Predict471.B.3 Communicate

19、Risk481.B.4 Climate Response Actions492.Sustainable Use and Stewardship of Coastal and Ocean Resources502.A productive and sustainable fisheries502.A.1 Observations522.A.2 Population Modeling552.A.3 Stock Assessments572.A.4 Human Behavior582.B Coastal resilience593.A robust and effective research,de

20、velopment,and transition enterprise653.A Data observations/assimilation653.B Technology693.C Valuation/Communication73Bibliometrics76I n t r o d u c t I o n7IntroductionEnriching Life Through ScienceExtending from the surface of the sun to the depths of the oceans,NOAAs mission depends on a strong f

21、oundation of research and development for observing and understanding the complex environmental systems that define our planet.This understanding ultimately provides users with the information and knowledge needed to protect lives and property,support livelihoods,inform decision-making,enhance life,

22、and sustain critical ecosystems.NOAA is a Science Agency To fulfill its mission to science,service,and stewardship,NOAAs science activities are molded by Guiding Principles and shaped through the development of Strategic Priorities.Resources and activities supporting Research and Development(R&D)ena

23、ble NOAA to carry out its aim of transitioning R&D into operations,applications,commercialization,and other uses.Following this path,NOAA produces and publishes credible science that is consistently cited in peer-reviewed publications,receives internal and external awards,and is consistently highly

24、recognized during external laboratory and program reviews.NOAAs Mission:Science,Service,and StewardshipTo understand and predict changes in climate,weather,oceans,and coasts;To share that knowledge and information with others;andTo conserve and manage coastal and marine ecosystems and resources.Guid

25、ing PrinciplesStrategic prioritiesResources&Actvities SupportingR&Dtransitioning r&D2 02 1 N O A A S C I EN C E R EP O R T8GUIDING PRINCIPLESWHY DOES NOAA INVEST IN RESEARCH?NOAA requires investment in R&D to expand capabili-ties and improve the quality of NOAAs products and services for the Nation.

26、NOAA develops products and services through dynamic engagement between the agency and stakeholders,communicating their needs to NOAA,generating development and new research initiatives to meet the needs of the people,as well as to address legislative mandates.By integrating internally conducted rese

27、arch with part-ner efforts,including cooperative institutes,universi-ties,other government agencies,and the private sec-tor,NOAA can better transform concepts into the data,tools,and information needed by stakeholders.NOAA balances a broad research portfolio to further the NOAA mission and serve a w

28、ide spectrum of end users.Guiding PrinciplesMandates,societal needs,and policies shape NOAAs scientific enterprise and ensure high-quality outputStrategic PrioritiesStrategic plans and R&D priorities drive a balanced R&D portfolio and diverse workforceResources&Activities Supporting R&DConducting sc

29、ience activities requires expertise,infrastructure,and other resources,as well as the means for NOAA to train and retain the next generation of scientists and cultivate a diverse and inclusive workforce.Transitioning R&DIn order to realize value from NOAA R&D investments,NOAA transitions its science

30、 to commer-cialization,operations,applica-tions,and other uses to improve the lives of the American public.I n t r o d u c t I o n9WHAT KINDS OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT DOES NOAA SUPPORT?NOAAs R&D addresses the needs of the user community while advancing fundamental scientific understanding.Our R&D

31、 portfolio has the flexibility to consider contributions to the scientific knowledge base separate from(albeit related to)enhancing capabilities.In the context of the classical treatment for characterizing research efforts Stokes,1997,NOAA significantly invests in both the“Pasteur-User Inspired”and

32、the“Edison-Applied Research”quadrants(Figure 1),while including critical investments aimed at advancing fundamental understanding.NOAA strategically invests across the risk-reward spectrum,pursuing a range of projects,from low-risk projects that result in incremental gains to high-risk projects with

33、 high poten-tial gains but less certainty of success.This balanced approach sets NOAA on the cut-ting edge of R&D while still ensuring that user needs and expectations are met.WHAT PRINCIPLES GUIDE NOAA RESEARCH?NOAA strives to follow eight principles from NOAA Administrative Order(NAO)216-115A NOAA

34、,2016a when formulating,directing,and evaluating all agency research:Mission alignmentTransition readiness(NAO 216-105B,NOAA,2016b)Research balanceOptimized partnershipsSustained facilities and infrastructureWorkforce excellenceScientific integrityAccountabilityThese principles,grounded in communica

35、tion within the agency and between our part-ners,work together to establish and maintain NOAAs high-quality research,development,services,and products.NOAA maintains both intramural and extramu-ral research investments,with some programs investing the majority of their R&D funding internally(intramu

36、ral)at labs and science cen-ters with Federal employees and other pro-grams investing the majority of their funding with external(extramural)R&D partners at uni-versities,industry,and other research institu-tions.In many cases,programs distribute their R&D investments across both intramural and extr

37、amural efforts.NOAA partnerships,vital to the agencys R&D efforts,enable NOAA to leverage the expertise,results,equipment,and facilities of leading universities,Federal agen-cies,private companies,non-governmental organizations,and other science innovators.Figure 1.donald Stokes proposed the above c

38、hart in his 1997 book Pasteurs Quadrant:Basic Science and Technological Innovation.this chart portrays that,while some research largely focuses on fundamental understanding(Bohrs quadrant upper left)or application(Edisons quadrant,lower right),it is possible for research to be highly relevant for bo

39、th fundamental understanding and real-life applications(Pasteurs quadrant,upper right).the majority of noAA research strives for this dual relevance as reflected in Pasteurs quadrant.2 02 1 N O A A S C I EN C E R EP O R T10Key mechanisms for partnerships include Cooperative Institute and Cooperative

40、 Science Center agreements with universities;the net-work of university-based Sea Grant programs;extramural grant programs;contracts;and Cooperative R&D Agreements with the private sector.SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITYAs stated in NOAAs Scientific Integrity Policy(NAO 202-735D-2 NOAA,2021),NOAA has a scientif

41、ic integrity policy“to promote a continuing culture of scientific excellence and integrity,and to establish a policy that ensures the integrity of the agencys scientific activities used to inform management and policy decisions.In addition,the intent of this policy is to strengthen universal confide

42、nce from scientists to decision-makers to the general public in the quality,validity,and reliability of NOAA science.It also denotes the agencys commitment to a culture of support for NOAAs employees,which are its principal science asset.”NOAAs Scientific Integrity Policy,along with its accompanying

43、 Procedural Handbook,establish a Code of Scientific Conduct and a Code of Ethics for Science Supervision and Management,setting the responsibilities for scientists,their managers,and those who use scientific results to set policy.The Scientific Integrity Office processes allegations of scientific mi

44、sconduct with respect to these codes.NOAA produces an annual scientific and research misconduct report that summarizes allegations that are being investigated and those that have been closed.In order to ensure that everyone in NOAA understands the principles of Scientific Integrity and how to apply

45、them,NOAA requires covered individuals to take scientific integrity training,which is provided in an online module.Through NOAAs comprehensive scientific integrity policy,and resulting culture of excellence,NOAA scientists continue to conduct exemplary research and development.For further informatio

46、n about scientific integrity in NOAA,the Scientific Integrity Commons website contains relevant resources and documents.the ice breaker u.S.coast Guard cutter Mackinaw keeps channels and harbors open to navigation.In this photo taken in 2014,the uScGc Mackinaw arrives in duluth via Lake Superior.cre

47、dit:noAAI n t r o d u c t I o n11STRATEGIC PRIORITIESNOAAS PRIORITY OBJECTIVESThe NOAA Research and Development Vision Areas:2020-2026 identifies priority foci for NOAA R&D.The priority areas include:1.Reducing societal impacts from hazardous weatherand other environmental phenomena2.Sustainable use

48、 and stewardship of ocean andcoastal resources3.A robust and effective research,development,andtransition enterpriseIn aligning R&D to these vision areas,NOAA supports two priority objectives in the Department of Commerces Strategic Plan NOAA,2018:1.Minimize the impacts of extreme weather andwater e

49、vents by implementing the WeatherResearch and Forecasting Innovation Act,withthe underlying goal to regain world leadership inweather modeling.2.Accelerating the American Blue Economy,withspecific focus on reducing the nations seafoodtrade deficit through expanded marine aquaculture.In carrying out

50、the objectives in the Vision Areas,NOAA strategically focuses transformative advancements in the quality and timeliness of NOAAs products and services in the following areas:1.Harnessing omics approaches,from DNAsequencing to small molecule analysis;2.Maximizing value of uncrewed systems for science

51、-based mission support;3.Maximizing the value of NOAA data;4.Applying the power of the crowd through citizenscience;5.Utilizing artificial intelligence analytics for next-generation Earth science;and6.Adopting and using information technology cloudservices.Field experiments to measure feeding and nu

52、trient uptake by shellfish in the Greenwich watershed in 2015.Photo credit:noAA Fisheries2 02 1 N O A A S C I EN C E R EP O R T12DIVERSITY,EQUITY,INCLUSION,AND ACCESSIBILITY(DEIA)NOAA requires a diverse workforce to better meet the diverse needs of communities around the nation.A recent Boston Consu

53、lting Group study suggests that increasing the diversity of leadership teams leads to more and better innovation and improved financial performance.NOAA recognizes the importance of Diversity,Equity,Inclusion,and Accessibility(DEIA)and prioritizes these topics through its Diversity&Inclusion(D&I)Str

54、ategic Plan and D&I Action Plan.What is NOAAs vision and plan for DEIA across its workforce?How will it achieve this vision?NOAAs vision for Diversity and Inclusion is an inclusive environment in which NOAA leverages diversity to achieve mission goals and business objectives and maximizes the potent

55、ial of individuals and the organization.NOAAs Diversity and Inclusion Strategic Plan(2020-2024)describes how NOAA envisions,defines,assesses,values,and commits to D&I.The plan outlines three goals:1)workforce diversity,2)workplace inclusion,and 3)sustainability.For these goals NOAA identified object

56、ives,actions,and metrics along with how NOAA can collaboratively achieve the goals.NOAA commits to provide our workforce and job applicants with a full and fair opportunity for employment,career advancement,and access to resources and programs.NOAA values the unique differences and shared values of

57、each member of the NOAA team.NOAA is committed to incorporating the principles of diversity as a core value.Empowering a workforce that includes diversity of thought,diversity in its people,and diversity in its business practices demonstrates the capability to understand and respond effectively to t

58、he workforces needs and mission.We pledge to create and promote a workplace where the talents of all individuals are recognized and appreciated.NOAAs 2021 Diversity,Equity,Inclusion,and Accessibility(DEIA)/Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment(SASH)Summit.In 2021,NOAA continued its tradition of deliv

59、ering a phenom-enal Diversity,Equity,and Inclusion(DEIA)&Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment(SASH)Summit.The annual summit is the agencys premier event to propel efforts to foster and sustain a culture of respect where DEIA is embraced and every workforce member feels safe and valued.This years the

60、me was Turning the Tide on DEIA&SASH.Some of the industrys most talented professionals were acquired to educate,share valuable insights,and offer best practices to empower NOAAs workforce to lead the charge.The virtual platform increased accessibility across regions and allowed for a robust program

61、consisting of 33 live webinars and 19 virtual booths,which showcased NOAAs Employee Resource/Affinity Groups.More than 1,300 NOAA employees registered for the 2-day event.The annual summit remains instrumental in broadening awareness of NOAAs DEIA and SASH initiatives supporting the agencys strategi

62、c goals.We Are noAA Week recognized the challenges of advancing diversity,equi-ty,inclusion and accessibility(dEIA)at noAA;the progress made;and the outstanding opportunities ahead.this banner highlights noAA employees displaying their pride by holding I am noAA handwritten signs.I n t r o d u c t I

63、 o n13RESOURCES AND ACTIVITIES SUPPORTING R&DSCIENTIFIC AWARDS AND ACHIEVEMENTSResources which include money,people,external reviewers,and infrastructure are essential for putting strategic priorities into prac-tice and advancing NOAAs scientific activities.Arguably,NOAAs greatest scientific resourc

64、e is its people.Time and time again,NOAA employees are recognized for their research and development efforts and preeminence through appointments to leadership positions in professional societies,external awards,invita-tions to speak at prestigious events,and more,establishing NOAA as a leader among

65、st federal agencies in its principal R&D focus areas.Outstanding R&D achievements are recog-nized through a variety of internal and exter-nal awards,some of which are presented in this report.In addition to scientific achieve-ment,many individuals within NOAA receive awards for leadership,profession

66、al excel-lence,heroism,and more.Award winners(e.g.,Department of Commerce Gold,Silver,and Bronze Medals and the NOAA Administrators Award)can be found within the NOAA Office of Human Capital Services website.NOAA has procedures and policies to ensure that employees are encouraged to serve in an offi

67、cial capacity as an officer or board member of a non-profit organization.These prestigious positions give our scientists the opportunities to help frame and direct research agendas and priorities within their relevant technical communities,many of whom are doing so at the highest levels.The correspo

68、nding visibility of NOAA scientists has a powerful impact on NOAAs ability to recruit and retain top scientific talent.A list of NOAA personnel serving on boards at the end of Fiscal Year 2021 can be found on the NOAA Science Council website.In 2021,NOAA employees and team mem-bers were presented wi

69、th external science awards for their excellence.The list below highlights a subset of these external awards.PROFESSIONAL SOCIETIES AND ASSOCIATIONS:AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY(AMS)AMS Fellow Huug M.van den Dool was elected as an AMS Fellow.AMS Fellows shall have made outstanding contribu-tions t

70、o the atmospheric or related oceanic or hydrologic sciences or their applications during a substantial period of years.Award for Outstanding Contribution to the Advance of Applied Meteorology Awarded to David P.Ruth for extraordinary leadership in developing and implement-ing software for primary NO

71、AA NWS systems,including the Interactive Forecast Preparation System and National Digital Forecast DatabaseFrancis W.Reichelderfer Award Chad M.Gravelle was awarded this for leadership,dedication,and the innova-tive use of technology in preparing forecasters to integrate GOES-R imagery and associate

72、d products into NOAA NWS operations Charles L.Mitchell Award Awarded to John M.Brown for selfless dedication during more than four decades of service in developing forecast techniques,advancing model perfor-mance,training forecasters,and forecasting for large field programs2 02 1 N O A A S C I EN C

73、E R EP O R T14PROFESSIONAL SOCIETIES AND ASSOCIATIONS:Award for Exceptional Specific Prediction Awarded to Bryan T.Smith for a highly specific and accurate prediction of a strong supercell event with long lead time that saved livesAMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION(AGU)2021 Ocean Sciences Award Awarded to A

74、listair Adcroft.The Ocean Sciences Award is presented biennially in odd-numbered years and recognizes outstanding leadership or service to the ocean sciences by a senior scientist.2021 Bert Bolin Award and Lecture Thomas Delworth was awarded for ground-breaking research and/or leader-ship in global

75、environmental change.AMERICAN PHYSICAL SOCIETY(APS)2021 APS Fellow V.Ramaswamy was named a 2021 APS Fellow,which recognizes members who have made excep-tional contributions in physics research,important applica-tions of physics,leadership in or service to physics,or phys-ics education.NATIONAL ASSOC

76、IATION OF COMMISSIONED OFFICERS2020 NOAA AGO Engineering Award Awarded to LTJG Patrick Pope in recognition of outstanding application of advanced GIS techniques,adding to knowledge of spatial data layers in Puget Sound and allowing for accurate map-ping of salmon natal estuaries.MARINE TECHNOLOGY SO

77、CIETY(MTSOcean News and Technology Young Professional Award Awarded to Mathew Biddle for exceptional work of support-ing the integration and management of marine life data for the U.S.Integrated Ocean Observing System(IOOS)THE OCEANIC SOCIETYOcean Observing Team Award Awarded to the RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS

78、 26N Team(Molly O.Baringer,Pedro L.Pena,Ulises F.Rivero,Ryan H.Smith,Andrew J.Stefanick,George A.Berberia,Ricardo Domingues,Rigoberto F.Garcia,JamesA.Hooper,Grant T.Rawson,Diego P.Ugaz,Denis L.Volkov)for transforming understanding of Atlantic circulation with abreakthrough in observing system design

79、,providing continu-ous,cost-effective measurements.ASSOCIATION OF MARKETING AND COMMUNICATION PROFESSIONALS(AMCP)Hermes Creative Platinum Award for Outstanding TV Placements and Outstanding Overall Publicity Campaign Awarded to the NOAAs National Coral Reef MonitoringProgram team in recognition of t

80、he media impact of NOAAsCoral Reef Condition Status Report,with more than 521 mil-lion impressions with coverage in 46 states,plus Washington,DC,for the coral reef status report press event.NATIONAL WEATHER ASSOCIATION(NWA)Dr.T.Theodore Fujita Research Achievement Award Awarded to Pam Heinselman for

81、 outstanding leadership of the NOAA/NSSL Warn-on-Forecast research and develop-ment program,particularly her work in developing collabora-tions with the operational community that have strengthened the research-to-operations and operations-to-research pipelines.INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR GREAT LA

82、KES RESEARCH(IAGLR)IAGLR Lifetime Achievement Award Awarded to Henry Vanderploeg in recognition of important and continued con-tributions to the field of Great Lakes research over a period of 20 years or more.I n t r o d u c t I o n15PROFESSIONAL SOCIETIES AND ASSOCIATIONS:John R.(Jack)Vallentyne Aw

83、ard Awarded to Margaret Lansing for recognition of important and sustained efforts to inform and educate the public and policymakers on great lakes issues,thereby raising awareness and support for great lakes protection and restoration.Individuals or teams eli-gible for this award can be from any gr

84、eat lake of the world,including North American Great Lakes,African Great Lakes,or others.OTHER GROUPS OR INSTITUTIONS:ROYAL SWEDISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES2021 Nobel Prize in Physics-Syukuro“Suki”Manabe was awarded one-half jointly of the Nobel Prize in Physics for the physical modeling of Earths climat

85、e,quantifying vari-ability and reliably predicting global warming.U.S.FOREST SERVICE2020 Under Secretarys and Chiefs award for Customer Experience Awarded to Erika Ammann for work on the Copper River Watershed Enhancement Project,which improved watershed health in a signature Alaska landscape,helpin

86、g restore the productivity of salmon fisheries,thereby benefiting rural communities and economies.U.S.FOREST SERVICESamuel J.Heyman Service to America Medal(the Sammies)-2021 Finalist for Paul A.Volcker Career Achievement Award C.Mark Eakin led the develop-ment of a satellite-based monitoring system

87、 that provides accurate forecasts and early warnings to environmental officials worldwide at a time when rising ocean temperatures threaten the health of coral reefs.ASSOCIATION FOR UNMANNED VEHICLE SYSTEMS INTERNATIONALOrder of Prometheus Awarded to John Walker for the body of work he has compiled

88、in support of Autonomous Operations.SCIENTIFIC PEER-REVIEWS OR CITATIONS:AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION(AGU)AGU 2020 Editors Citation for Excellence in Refereeing-Water Resources Research Awarded to Matt Collins for providing outstanding,in-depth peer reviews that greatly improved the final published pa

89、pers in Water Resources Research.AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETYAMS Editors Award for Weather and Forecasting Awarded to Michael Coniglio for consistently providing high quality,constructive,and rigorous reviews that help to uphold the high standards of AMS journals committees.AMS Editors Award for

90、Weather and Forecasting/Monthly Weather Review/Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology Awarded to John Knaff for providing multiple rigorous,timely,and constructive reviews across three AMS journals,and also for contributing consistently excellent reviews over a period of many years.AMS Edito

91、rs Award for the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Awarded to Kelly Mahoney for insightful,thorough,and constructive reviews that contrib-uted to improving impactful manuscripts.2 02 1 N O A A S C I EN C E R EP O R T16OTHER GROUPS OR INSTITUTIONS:INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY(IAEA

92、)Expert in Environmental Pesticide Analysis Awarded to NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Centers Environmental Chemistry Program in recognition of our laboratorys exper-tise in analyzing environmental samples for legacy pesti-cides,pursuant to our participation in an IAEA quality assur-ance exercise.

93、STEPHEN D.CAIRNS,SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTIONName change in coral species to honor Dr.Thomas Hourigan A Caribbean deep-sea stony coral was renamed Desmophyllum hourigani Cairns,2021 in honor of Dr.Hourigan,Chief Scientist for NOAAs Deep Sea Coral Research and Technology Program.REUTERSName change in cora

94、l species to honor Dr.Thomas Hourigan A Caribbean deep-sea stony coral was renamed Desmophyllum hourigani Cairns,2021 in honor of Dr.Hourigan,Chief Scientist for NOAAs Deep Sea Coral Research and Technology Program.CAREER COMMUNICATIONS GROUP,INC.WOMEN OF COLOR MAGAZINEWomen of Color Award Awarded t

95、o Rita Williams,recognizing significant minority achievement in Science,Technology,Engineering,and Math(STEM).Technology Rising Star Award-Awarded to Tiffany House.Rising Stars are young women,under 15 years in the workforce,who are helping to shape technology for the future.UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGANRe

96、search Faculty Recognition Award Awarded to Casey Godwin for exceptional scholarly achievements,as evi-denced by publications and other activities in an academic field of study.SOUTH KOREAN MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENTMinisters Commendation Awarded to Hyun Cheol Kim for contributions to South Korean air

97、quality research.PENN STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF EARTH AND MINERAL SCIENCES125th Anniversary Fellows Chidong Zhang and Benjamin DeAngelo.The college recognizes that the success and repu-tation of the college is defined substantially by the achieve-ments of its graduates.To honor their accomplishmen

98、ts the college has selected a prominent group of 134 alumni whose contributions to the fields of science and engineering have set them apart from their peers and named them 125th Anniversary Fellows.THE CENTER FOR CLIMATE AND SECURITY,THE AMERICAN SECURITY PROJECT,AND THE WILSON CENTERS ENVIRONMENTA

99、L CHANGE AND SECURITY PROGRAM2021-2022 Climate and Security Advisory Groups Climate Security Fellow Brittany Croll was selected as one of 15 rising leaders from diverse backgrounds across the U.S.government and the civil and private sectors,as emerging experts on the links between climate change and

100、 national security.I n t r o d u c t I o n17AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNIONAGU Fellow Chidong Zhang and Thomas Knutson were named AGU Fellows.AGU Fellows are elected each year for their visionary leadership and scientific excellence.This designation is conferred upon less than 0.1%of all AGU mem-bers in

101、any given year,as a tribute for those who have made exceptional scientific contributions.ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETYReviewers Certificate Awarded to Michael S.Fisher for the thoroughness and quality of a large number of reviews on tropical cyclones,maintaining the high standards for papers appearin

102、g in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.What are NOAAs diversity statistics?How is NOAA working towards better Diversity,Equity,Inclusion,and Accessibility across its work-force?NOAA made advancements in having a workforce that represents Individuals with Targeted Disabilities

103、 in 2020 with repre-sentation at 2.52%,0.52%above the federal goal established by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission.In 2020,the representation of Hispanics,White Females,African Americans,American Indian or Alaska Natives and two or more races in NOAAs workforce were below the civilian lab

104、or force(CLF)for the last five fiscal years(data from the Office of Inclusion and Civil Rights).In 2021,NOAA supported sev-eral initiatives to advance a more diverse and inclusive work environment.NOAA is fully committed to advancing DEIA at all levels to achieve our mission goals and business objec

105、tives and maximize the poten-tial of our workforce and the organization as a whole.We recognize that diversity is about more than race and gender and strive to foster an inclusive culture for everyone by advancing our diversity and inclusion through initiatives,programs,and groups hosted by he Offic

106、e of Inclusion and Civil Rights(OICR).NOAAs OICR currently leads a growing number of Employee Resource and Affinity Groups to connect employees for support,collaboration,and action,promoting diversity,equity,and inclusion resulting in a more productive pro-fessional environment that champions missio

107、n achievement.OICR also hosted nine Special Emphasis Program Observances(SEPO)events with an average of over 300 attendees at each event,NOAA also served as the sponsor of the FY20 Women of Color Science,Technology,Engineering,and Mathematics(STEM)Conference,and the premier sponsor in five major nat

108、ional conferences:Becoming Everything You Are(BEYA),Society for Advancement of Chicanos/Hispanics,and Native Americans in Science(SACNAS),Federal Asian Pacific American Council(FAPAC),American Indian Science and Engineering Society(AISES)and Federally Employed Women(FEW)National Training Programs.In

109、 addition,in 2021,the Office of Marine and Aviation Operations(OMAO)graduating Basic Officer Training Class(BOTC)138 was NOAAs most diverse.OMAO used“total candidate engagement”to support candidates,which support the graduation of this diverse class.Empowering a workforce that includes diver-sity of

110、 thought,diversity in its people,and diversity in its business practices demon-strates that we can understand and respond effectively to the needs of our workforce and our mission.NOAA is also planning regular assessments of Line and Staff Offices for possible deficiencies and to develop strategies

111、to remove barriers.2 02 1 N O A A S C I EN C E R EP O R T18How does NOAA invest in the development of the next generation of scientists to help promote DEIA?The NOAA Office of Education(OEd)supports education from pre-kindergarten through doctoral level students and collaborates with universities to

112、 prepare exceptional talent,in NOAA-mission fields,including from diverse backgrounds.OEd supported programs play an important role in contributing to NOAAs DEIA goals.The Educational Partnership Program with Minority-Serving Institutions(EPP/MSI)sup-ports the education,training,professional develop

113、ment,and graduation of post-sec-ondary students at NOAA-supported minority serving institutions where a majority of the student population are from traditionally underrepresented and historically excluded communities.NOAA funding also supports research capacity development in STEM,social science,and

114、 policy fields at MSIs that are aligned with NOAA mission fieldsSince 2001,EPP/MSI funding has supported students who have earned a total of 2,593 degrees that includes 1,599 Bachelors,626 Masters,and 334 PhDs and 34 other(i.e.Associates and Professional degrees).More than 300 EPP/MSI alumni have en

115、tered fed-eral service as employees or contractors,70 of which are currently full time employees in the NOAA workforce.From left to right,dr.Jeanette davis,cindy Woods,Melissa Hooper,and Jennifer dickens,were recognized at the annual Women of color in StEM conference,which was held virtually october

116、 8-10,2020.these awards highlight significant achievements in science,technology,engineering,and math(StEM).(noAA)I n t r o d u c t I o n19EPP/MSI supports four Cooperative Science Center(CSC)awards aligned to core NOAA mission areas.Established through national competition,the CSCs partner with 24

117、addi-tional universities and collaborate in the train-ing of post-secondary students in fields that directly support NOAAs mission.Students are required to participate in meaningful science,technology,engineering,mathematics,policy,natural resource management,and social sci-ence research at NOAA fac

118、ilities under the guidance of their academic advisor and a NOAA mentor.While each CSC is aligned with a primary line office,the centers partner and collaborate across NOAA in education,train-ing,and research towards the development of candidates for the future NOAA workforce.From 2003-2019,EPP/MSI C

119、SCs graduated more than 50 percent of African-Americans who received PhDs in atmospheric sciences and meteorology and 35 percent and 29 per-cent of African-Americans receiving PhDs in marine science and environmental sciences,respectively.Additionally,EPP/MSI CSCs also graduated 39 percent of Latino

120、s receiv-ing PhDs in marine science and 21 percent and 18.5 percent of Latinos receiving PhDs in atmospheric sciences and meteorology and environmental sciences,respectively.What is the Budget for NOAA Research?NOAA dedicated$1,024.9 million,approxi-mately 19 percent of the agencys total bud-get,to

121、R&D in fiscal year 2021(FY21),with R&D defined as all research and development activities,including expenditures on R&D-related facilities and equipment purchases.This continues a nine-year trend of increased R&D expenditures,highlighting NOAAs efforts to address increased stakeholder needs for envi

122、ronmental intelligence and ser-vices in the face of a changing planet.Note:Mission Support(MS)includes construction of R&D facilities.NOAAs satellite acquisition programs,which design,build,and launch NOAAs operational satellites,are not included.2 02 1 N O A A S C I EN C E R EP O R T20Where Does it

123、 Go?Approximately 58 percent of NOAAs FY20 R&D budget went to internal R&D efforts,with the remaining 42 percent set aside for extra-mural research,enabling partnerships and collaborations with non-NOAA entities.Note:This graph excludes facilities and equipment from R&D budget calculations.Scientifi

124、c InfrastructureThe science described in this report is not possible without investments in enabling research infrastructure,including the acquisi-tion and maintenance of“hard”infrastructure,such as extensive observing systems,satel-lites,ships,aircraft,laboratories,and high-per-formance computing s

125、ystems.These critical assets provide the data and tools for NOAA scientists to increase the understanding of our Earth systems,provide better forecasts,and inform decisions.Laboratory and Program Science ReviewsScientific evaluations assess the strength and appropriateness of NOAAs R&D endeavors,as

126、well as identify gaps and emerging issues and capabilities and make recommendations for improving scientific innovation and output to ensure activities meet NOAAs mission needs(Handbook for NAO 216-115A).Reviews of NOAAs laboratories and programs include an independent panel of experts,reflecting th

127、e importance NOAA places on scientific peer review.To assess the robustness and appropriateness of NOAAs scientific endeavors,the reviews focus on the quality,performance,and relevance of the R&D.Per NAO 216-115A,individual NOAA laboratories and science programs are reviewed every five years to:Eval

128、uate quality,relevance,and performanceof research conducted at the laboratory or thescience and outreach conducted or funded by theprogram;Evaluate laboratory/program management andimpact with respect to stated strategic goals,which may be defined in the laboratory/programsstrategic plan or shaped b

129、y an inter-agencyworking group plan;I n t r o d u c t I o n21Strategically position the laboratory/program for planning its future science by identifying gaps and emerging areas of science;Ensure research is linked to the strategic plan,mission,and priorities of NOAA,the laboratory/program,and the a

130、ppropriate inter-agency working group(s);Deliver evidence to stakeholders of the benefits of NOAA research and development;Report collectively on the quality of NOAA science programs;Identify common themes and priorities so that NOAA can determine mechanisms,policies,or actions to address corporatel

131、y.Feedback gathered during the evaluation process helps shape NOAAs world-class science.NOAA appreciates the efforts of the organizers and review panels in facilitating thoughtful,independent reviews.A list of NOAAs program and laboratory science reviews can be found on the NOAA Science Council webs

132、ite,along with links to review summary reports and responses.ALL SIX NOAA LINE OFFICES PROVIDE UNIQUE CONTRIBUTIONS TO NOAA R&DThe National Marine Fisheries Service(NMFS),also known as NOAA Fisheries,is responsible for the stewardship of the nations living marine resources and their habitats.NOAA Fi

133、sheries provides vital services for the nation to support productive and sustainable fisheries,safe sources of seafood,the recovery and conservation of protected resources,and healthy ecosystemsall backed by sound science and an ecosystem-based approach to management.Using the Magnuson-Stevens Act a

134、s the guide,NOAA Fisheries works in partnership with Regional Fishery Management Councils to assess and predict the status of fish stocks,set catch limits,ensure compliance with fisheries regulations,and reduce bycatch.The National Ocean Service(NOS)is the nations premier science agency for oceans a

135、nd coasts.NOS delivers the applied science,modeling,tools and services needed to understand,predict,and respond to the challenges we face along Americas 95,000 miles of shoreline and 3.5 million square nautical miles of coastal,Great Lakes,and deep-ocean waters.Additionally,NOS oversees the definiti

136、on,maintenance and access to the National Spatial Reference System(NSRS)for all federal geospatial activities.These efforts enable NOS to better manage the sea/shore boundary for coastal resiliency and planning.2 02 1 N O A A S C I EN C E R EP O R T22The National Environmental Satellite,Data,and Inf

137、ormation Service(NESDIS)provides timely access to global environmental data from satellites and other sources to promote,protect,and enhance the Nations economy,security,environment,and quality of life.NESDIS supports science through the Center for Satellite Applications and Research(STAR)and the Na

138、tional Centers for Environmental Information(NCEI).Through these programs,NESDIS researches,formulates,develops,maintains,and sustains environmental measurements from satellites,as well as associated applications of satellite environmental observations,and maintains the quality of NOAAs operational

139、satellite measurements,directly enabling and supporting NOAAs environmental analysis and prediction capabilities.NESDIS hosts and provides public access to one of Earths most comprehensive archives for atmospheric,oceanic,and geophysical data,with research and development focusing on preserving,stew

140、arding,and providing the best possible long-term environmental data records;thereby,maximizing the datas utility and enabling the Nations environmental science efforts.The Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research(OAR),also known as NOAA Research,provides the research foundation for understanding t

141、he complex earth systems that support our planet.OARs role is to provide unbiased science to better manage the environment nationally and globally.The science and technology that OAR produces and transfers to partners(in NOAAs service lines and beyond)is instrumental to preventing the loss of human

142、life,managing natural resources,and maintaining a strong economy.OAR has partnerships and platforms around the world and offices located across the country,including ten laboratories and six program offices that support research and provide information used from the international to the local level.

143、I n t r o d u c t I o n23The National Weather Service(NWS)provides weather,hydrologic,and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States,its territories,adjacent waters and ocean areas,for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.NWS data and products for

144、m a national information database and infrastructure which can be used by other governmental agencies,the private sector,the public,and the global community.NWS sustains and improves its observing system infrastructure with new technologies while leveraging more observations through innovative publi

145、c and private partnerships;additionally,next generation weather and Earth system models are developed using a community-based approach,along with advances in high-performance computing.NWS also improves its tools,systems,and policies for virtualization,analytics,data management,and dissemination to

146、maximize the societal benefits of state-of-the art science,data sources,and technologies.Collaboration with partners across NOAA,other Federal agencies,and the weather enterprise are critical to enable effective research to operations and operations to research activities for impact-based decision s

147、upport services(IDSS).The Office of Marine and Aviation Operations(OMAO)operates a wide variety of specialized aircraft and ships to complete NOAAs environmental and scientific missions.Recently,OMAO established a new Unmanned Systems Operations Program to support the rapidly expanding use of these

148、systems across the agency.OMAO is also responsible for the administration and implementation of the Aviation Safety Program,Small Boat Program and NOAA Diving Program to ensure safe and efficient operations in NOAA-sponsored aviation,small boat and underwater activities.References:NOAA(2016a),NOAA A

149、dministrative Order 216-115A-Research and Development in NOAA,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Washington,D.C.NOAA(2016b),NOAA Administrative Order 216-105B-Policy on Research and Development Transitions,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Washington,D.C.NOAA(2018),NOAA by

150、 the Numbers,p.3,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Washington,D.C.NOAA(2021),NOAA Administrative Order 202-735D-2-Scientific Integrity,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Washington,D.C.Stokes,D.E.(1997),Pasteurs quadrant:Basic science and technological innovation,Brookings

151、 Institution Press.2 02 1 N O A A S C I EN C E R EP O R T24TRANSITIONING R&DNOAA TRANSITIONS RESEARCH INTO OPERATIONS,APPLICATIONS,COMMERCIALIZATION,AND OTHER USES(R2X).NOAA and the Nation extract benefits from NOAAs research when the research results transition into use;consequently,research and de

152、velopment transitions are essential to addressing NOAAs missions.Examples of NOAA transitions include operational weather forecasting systems,products that inform resource management decisions,and com-mercially available sensors.NOAA character-izes and tracks the maturity of NOAA scien-tific project

153、s through research,development,demonstration,and deployment.Transition plans guide the R&D maturation and tran-sition to planned end use,helping ensure agreement between researchers and planned adopters with regards to content,format,schedule,and resources.NOAA transitioned products and services ser

154、ve as tangible sci-entific outcomes that serve NOAAs mission and benefit the American people.NOAAs 12 testbeds and proving grounds enable pre-deployment testing of NOAAs research and development,facilitating the transition into forecasts,warnings,products,services,and decision support.NOAAs test-bed

155、s and proving grounds are:1.Arctic Testbed2.Aviation Weather Testbed3.Climate Testbed4.Coastal and Ocean Modeling Testbed5.Developmental Testbed6.Satellite Proving Ground7.Hazardous Weather Testbed8.Hydrometeorology Testbed9.Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation10.Joint Hurricane Testbed11.Op

156、erations Proving Ground12.Space Weather Prediction TestbedEXAMPLES OF RESEARCH TRANSITIONSDEVELOPMENT OF THE DATA-ASSIMILATING WEST COAST OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEMIn March 2021,NOAA began using its first NOS operational coastal model with capabilities to assimilate data.Data assimilation is the pr

157、o-cess by which observational data are brought into models.This project,known as the West Coast Operational Forecast System(WCOFS),forecasts the coastal and shelf waters of Washington,Oregon,and California.It uses a three-dimensional fluid dynamics model to forecast water levels,currents,temperature

158、,and salinity.By assimilating coastal high-fre-quency radar,satellite sea-surface tempera-ture,and satellite observations of the height of the sea surface,WCOFS produces more accu-rate forecasts.These forecasts support marine navigation,offshore industries,fisheries,and habitat applications,with use

159、rs spanning the state governments of Washington,Oregon,and California,Native American entities,and the private sector,as well as academia.development of the data-assimilating West coast operational Forecast System.Image credits:noAAI n t r o d u c t I o n25HABITAT ASSESSMENT:PROTECTING FISH SPAWNING

160、 AGGREGATIONS IN FLORIDA KEYSEvents where hundreds to thousands of reef fish gather to spawn are known as reef fish spawning aggregations.These gatherings often put fish at risk of overfishing due to their large concentrations,high catchability,and regular recurrence in specific offshore locations d

161、uring particular times of year.In order to better manage these stocks,NOAA interviewed the fishing community to gather local ecological knowledge,and used this information as a basis to guide field assessments with the goal of mapping the reef habitats where fish species aggregated.To do this,NOAA s

162、cientists used fishery sonar and validated the sonar results with divers.Observations from 2011-2017 at Western Dry Rock near Key West Florida noted at least four aggregating species(mutton,gray and yellowtail snapper,and permits).The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission(FWC)used these

163、observations to establish monitoring programs.In 2020,FWC worked with conservation advocates to propose an annual seasonal closure from April-July to protect the spawning aggregations of these species.The measure passed unanimously by the Commission on February 26,2021.NOAA OPERATIONAL MODEL FORECAS

164、TS THE GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF AEROSOLSNOAA transitioned into operations an atmospheric composition model that integrates weather and air quality to produce an air quality forecast.The model,called the Global Ensemble Forecast System-Aerosols(GEFS-Aerosol),produces seven-day forecasts of the global d

165、istribution of some primary air pollutants(smoke,soot,organic carbon,sulfate,and particles of dust and sea salt),collectively known as aerosols.The new model can predict the atmospheric impact of volcano eruptions,which can widely disperse ash and other particulates.The GEFS-Aerosols also includes a

166、n existing biomass burning plume rise module,which determines at what height above the ground fire emissions are injected.To do this it uses real-time data from satellites that give information on how hot and large the wildfires or agricultural burnings are.NOAA BOOSTS MARINE FORECAST CAPABILITIES W

167、ITH UPGRADES TO FLAGSHIP OCEAN FORECASTING SYSTEMNOAA NWSs Global Real-Time Ocean Forecast System(RTOFS)provides predictions for up to eight days of ocean currents,salinity,temperature,and sea ice conditions around the world.NOAA updated the RTOFS to include a high-resolution ocean data assimilation

168、 capability for the first time,which provides realistic representation of initial model states for accurate model forecasts.The upgraded Global RTOFS improved hurricane track and intensity forecasts for coupled hurricane models and provided more detailed and improved sea ice concentrations in the Ar

169、ctic and Antarctic.Forecast improvements were also seen in sea surface temperature and near-surface ocean conditions in all global oceanic basins.NOAA NWS forecasters use the RTOFS model to inform marine forecasts and warnings that protect lives and enhance the maritime economy and the U.S.Coast Gua

170、rd also uses it routinely,especially during search and rescue operations.2 02 1 N O A A S C I EN C E R EP O R T26SCIENCE HIGHLIGHTSFrom 2008 through early November 2021,NOAA Ocean Exploration mapped 2 million square kilometers(772,204 square miles)of seafloor aboard NOAA Ship Okeanos Explorer.Okeano

171、s Explorer is equipped with state-of-the-art multibeam sonar systems that use beams of sound to map the ocean floor.This map shows the cumulative multibeam mapping coverage.The gray lines indicate the boundaries of the U.S.Exclusive Economic Zone.Image courtesy of NOAA Ocean Exploration.1.REDUCING S

172、OCIETAL IMPACTS FROM HAZARD-OUS WEATHER AND OTHER ENVIRONMENTALPHENOMENANOAA research and development improves the forecasts and warnings that provide accu-rate,timely information to the public about hazardous weather and environmental events.Through a better understanding of weather and climate phe

173、nomena,as well as human perception and behavior in response to risk communication,NOAA science helps save lives and property.NOAAs scientific accom-plishments for 2021 have been divided into two groups:reducing societal impacts from hazardous weather and reducing societal impacts from climate change

174、(particularly for at-risk and underserved communities).1.A REDUCING SOCIETAL IMPACTS FROMHAZARDOUS WEATHERThe Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017(Public Law 115-25,often referred to as the“Weather Act”)was signed into law in April 2017,with goals(a.)to improve NOAAs weather resea

175、rch through investments in observational,computing,and modeling capabilities,(b.)to support improvement in weather forecasting and prediction of high impact weather events,and(c.)to expand commercial opportunities for the provision of weather data.In 2020,the record-breaking hurricane season and 22

176、weather/climate disaster events with losses exceeding$1 billion emphasize the importance of the scientific and operational advances described in the Weather Act.NOAA research and development aim to reduce the societal impacts of hazardous weather events by understanding(observations and models),fore

177、casting,and communicating these threats to life and property.2 02 1 N O A A S C I EN C E R EP O R T S C I EN C E H I G H L I G H T S28Observationsmodelsforecastshuman behavior1.A r Ed u c I n G S o c I E tA L I M PA c t S F r o M H A z A r d o u S W E At H Er29ObservationsNOAA observes environmental

178、 conditions through the use of radar,satellites,buoys,uncrewed systems,aircraft,weather balloons,and other instruments.These observations undergo quality control checks and are used as initial conditions for constraining models,among other uses.Past hazardous weather events also serve to inform futu

179、re forecasts and decision making.ModelsNOAA models future environmental condi-tions using observations,mathematical rela-tionships,and information from past weather events.NOAAs models span various time scales(hindcasts to decades)and spatial scales(local to solar)so that they can be best suited for

180、 different forecasts of hazardous environmental phenomena.ForecastsNOAA issues forecasts of potentially hazard-ous weather based on models to provide advance warning of these conditions so that people can take action to protect their lives and property.Human BehaviorNOAA uses social science to under

181、stand human perception and behavior and the impacts of hazardous weather phenomena in order to better communicate forecasted threats and reduce societal impacts.SpotlightObservationsSatellite imagery,aircraft observations,and uncrewed systems provide observations about tropical storm conditions.Deta

182、ils about the shape and structure of a tropical storms eye and eye wall are needed to accurately predict the intensity of a tropical storm.It has only been in the past decade that models have been able to more accurately capture those details.ModelsTropical cyclone model predictions are updated as n

183、ew observational data become available.Modern models have benefited from advancements in computing power and are better able to predict tropical cyclones at more detailed resolutions.ForecastsWith these improved models and observa-tions,NOAA NWS forecasters predicted Hurricane Lauras landfall point

184、within one mile 3.5 days prior to its landfall on August 27,2020.NOAA NWS forecasters success-fully forecasted the rapid intensification of Hurricane Laura 15 hours in advance.Forecasters predicted 15 to 20 feet of inun-dation-conditions that are far beyond life-threatening.Human BehaviorOne day pri

185、or to Hurricane Lauras landfall,the NWS issued a warning of“unsurvivable storm surge”in a tweet that was amplified by media partners and shared more than 12,000 times.While it is difficult to definitively state the extent to which this language influenced peoples behavior,there were no known fatalit

186、ies directly caused by storm surge from Hurricane Laura.2 02 1 N O A A S C I EN C E R EP O R T S C I EN C E H I G H L I G H T S301.A.1 OBSERVATIONSMACHINE LEARNING USING SATELLITE DATA AIDS ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTIONNOAA scientists applied machine learning tech-niques to better predict weather phenome

187、na.Radar allows forecasters to monitor and predict severe weather hazards.There are challenges in predicting precipitation and severe storms in areas with poor or no radar coverage,such as over mountains or above the open ocean.In order to improve forecasts in these areas,scien-tists extracted high-

188、resolution information from instruments on the GOES-16 satellite to predict three-dimensional profiles of radar data using machine learning techniques;in effect using sat-ellite data to provide a picture that until now has only been possible with radar.These simulated radar images can be used for va

189、rious applica-tions,such as to predict the movement of air masses in the atmosphere in numerical weather prediction models.IMPROVING TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST CAPABILITIES USING THE JPSS DATA SUITENOAA scientists used data from the Joint Polar Satellite System(JPSS)to develop new applications to bet

190、ter estimate tropical cyclone position,intensity,and wind structure.The JPSS data includes high quality tempera-ture and moisture profiles from the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder(ATMS)and imagery from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suites Day-Night Band,which makes visible-like night

191、time imagery pos-sible.The Day-Night Band allows scientists to capture nighttime lights from human sources(for example,from city lights and fishing boats)and natural sources(for example,from moonlight and auroras)and is used to detect low clouds,smoke,and dust.In 2021,NOAA scientists either updated

192、or completed the fol-lowing applications:Moisture In-Flux Storm Tool:Important forpredicting storm intensification since too muchdry air inhibits convection.This tool detects andquantifies dry intuitions in storms.objective Radius of Maximum Wind frommicrowave imagery:Identifies the location ofthe s

193、trongest surface winds in tropical cyclones.Important to determine where there is the mostpotential for wind and storm surge damage.Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suites Day-Night Band in GOES-16/-17 projection:Important toidentify tropical cyclones center location at night,which affects track

194、and intensity forecasts.Use ofgeostationary projection makes VIIRS data easierto view and compare with geostationary andmodel data.The new applications demonstrated the potential to improve operational forecasts for tropical cyclone intensity and structure,and the potential to improve the availabili

195、ty and usefulness of visible-like nighttime imagery.An example of Visible Infrared Imaging radiometer Suites day-night Band ima-gery in GoES-16 projection on rAMMB-cIrA SLIdEr.Image credit:cooperative Institute for research in the Atmosphere(cIrA)1.A.1 o B S Er VAt I o n S31INTEGRATED OCEAN OBSERVIN

196、G FOR THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASONImproving NOAAs hurricane intensity fore-casts will require closing gaps in oceanic and atmospheric observations.To address this,NOAA formed the first integrated ocean observations team to coordinate the use of different in situ observing platforms(for exam-ple,gli

197、ders,drifters,floats,small uncrewed aircraft systems(sUAS),etc.)to improve hurri-cane intensity forecasts.The group leveraged existing observations and sought opportuni-ties for co-deployments and simultaneous observations of the ocean and atmosphere throughout the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season in

198、the Gulf of Mexico,tropical Atlantic,and Caribbean regions.NOAA employed concen-trated efforts to seek opportunities for colo-cated observations for five major(Category 3 or above)hurricanes in 2021:Grace,Henri,Ida,Larry,and Sam.Ahead of and during Hurricane Sam,NOAA gathered observa-tions from glid

199、ers,buoys,drifters,Argo floats,saildrones,expendable bathythermographs(XBTs,which are probes deployed from ships to measure water temperature),and A-XBTs(XBTs deployed from a NOAA P-3 plane).A Saildrone,modified with specially designed“hurricane wings to enable it to operate in extreme conditions,ba

200、ttled 50 foot waves and winds of more than 120 miles per hour to collect critical scientific data from Hurricane Sam,providing the first video footage gath-ered by an uncrewed surface vehicle(USV)from inside a major hurricane.This air-sea dataas well as the data from all the colo-cated observing sys

201、temswill help scien-tists understand the processes that occur as storms intensify,with the goal of improving forecast models.UNIFIED FORECAST SYSTEM UPGRADED WITH MOVING NEST TECHNOLOGY TO BETTER REPRESENT AND TRACK STORMSNOAA scientists have created the first-ever global prediction model with a mov

202、-ing grid,capable of providing a very high resolution region around hurricanes,called the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System(HAFS).This new system aims to provide A specially designed hurricane saildrone prior to its July 2021 launch from St.thomas,Virgin Islands.Photo credit:Saildrone,Inc.Image

203、 of the HAFS model showing the multiple moving grids in yellow boxes,which allows the model to provide very high resolution around the hurricanes anywhe-re in the globe.Image credit:William ramstrom,noAA research/AoML2 02 1 N O A A S C I EN C E R EP O R T S C I EN C E H I G H L I G H T S32reliable a

204、nd skillful guidance on tropical cyclone track,intensity,and structure,includ-ing rapid intensity changes,genesis,and storm size.A key development of the model is the Finite Volume 3 dynamical core with an embedded moving grid.This upgrade allows researchers to track the storm activity inside the co

205、re of the hurricane at high(1-2 km)reso-lution,where the winds are the strongest and most destructive.This high resolution around the hurricanes is critical for improving hurri-cane structure and intensity predictions.NOAA DEMONSTRATES USE OF CLOUD-BASED DEVELOPMENT FOR THE TIMELY OPERATIONAL IMPLEM

206、ENTATION OF THE MULTI-RADAR MUTI-SENSOR PRODUCTThe Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor(MRMS)product suite integrates data from multiple observing systems,providing key inputs to hydrologi-cal,severe weather,and aviation products that support warning and forecast decision-making by NOAA NWS and its core partner

207、s.In operational use since 2014,NOAA NWS updated the MRMS application to expand most MRMS products to Alaska,Hawaii,Guam,and the Caribbean;improve estimation of precipitation to address extreme rainfall;and to better identify and predict short-term hazardous weather and water conditions such as seve

208、re weather and flash floods.In part-nership with NOAA Research,MRMS devel-opment was conducted in an off-premise real-time cloud environment then transitioned directly to NOAA NWS for operational imple-mentation.Moving the MRMS development from an on-premise environment to the public cloud allowed o

209、ne-third of the compute and storage allotted for MRMS on on-premise infrastructure to be reallocated to support critical updates to MRMS and other applica-tions required by forecasters to support the weather and water mission.Estimated precipitation in inches from 8 am on June 30 to 8am on July 3,20

210、21 over new York city produced by the operational Multi-radar Multi-Sensor system.Image credit:noAA research/nSSL1.A.2 M o d EL S331.A.2 MODELSHYSPLIT MODEL SAVES LIVES,MONEY,AND TIME IN A RANGE OF ROUTINE AND EMERGENCY SITUATIONSChanging weather patterns brought a dev-astating plague of locust swar

211、ms to northern Africa in 2020.NOAA Research was able to adapt the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory(HYSPLIT)models atmospheric transport capabilities to predict the locust swarms path of travel in order to alert areas in danger of infestation.This effort began in February 2020

212、to aid the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(UN FAO)in responding to the threat in Africa.In early 2021,NOAA introduced new functionality regarding time-of-arrival for the swarms and an application program-ming interface(API)for local agencies to run multiple swarm forecasts au

213、tomatically.The HYSPLIT team continues to work with the UN FAO to develop new features and provide forecasts up to 15 days before regions experi-ence impact.FAO forecasts enable local offi-cials to conduct aerial spraying to reduce the impact of desert locusts,which can destroy grains,grasses and ot

214、her greens that are life-sustaining foods for entire regions.Overall,the UNs HYSPLIT-enabled response pre-served livelihoods of 36.9 million people and protected food security.The overall value of local surveillance,prediction,and interven-tion is estimated at$1.57 billion(crop and milk production s

215、aved).ACCELERATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUTURE DATA ASSIMILATION INFRASTRUCTURE FOR REGIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTING:JOINT EFFORT FOR DATA ASSIMILATION INTEGRATION(JEDI)The process by which observational data is brought into models is called data assimila-tion(DA).The Joint Effort for Data assimilation

216、 Integration(JEDI)is the next generation,uni-fied DA framework under collaborative devel-opment between NOAA and cross-agency partners through the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation(JCSDA).JEDI will allow for a faster development and research-to-opera-tions(R2O)of advanced data assimilatio

217、n and related components to meet the requirements of NOAAs Unified Forecast System(UFS).In June 2021,JCSDA made the second,public open-source release of JEDI,which featured updates to the Interface for Observational Data Assimilation.This release markedly improves JEDIs performance,allowing for effi

218、cient storage of and access to the rapidly growing volume of data as well as accommo-dating various file formats that JEDI receives from observation data providers.Extensive work is also being conducted on DA related to the ocean,sea ice,land and hydrology,atmospheric composition and air quality,and

219、 everything from short range weather to cou-pled applications for subseasonal and sea-sonal prediction.JEDI is well positioned to be the next generation DA system for the UFS.2 02 1 N O A A S C I EN C E R EP O R T S C I EN C E H I G H L I G H T S34NOAA UPGRADES TO THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEMNOAA upgr

220、aded its Global Forecast System(GFS)weather model to boost weather fore-casting capabilities across the U.S.and the world.These advancements will improve fore-casting hurricane development,modeling for snowfall location,heavy rainfall forecasts,and overall model performance.This is the first major u

221、pgrade to the Global Forecast System(GFS)for short and medium range(0-16 day)weather prediction using the new Unified Forecast System(UFS)framework.Key com-ponents of this upgrade that improves its forecast capability include doubling the verti-cal resolution(from the surface of the Earth to the top

222、 of the atmosphere),updated model physics,improved system for data assimila-tion,and the addition of new observations.Also,for the first time,the global wave model is now coupled with the atmospheric model to provide improved wave forecasts for the marine and coastal regions around the globe.HIGH RE

223、SOLUTION ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM UPGRADE ADDS 12 HOURS OF ADDITIONAL LEAD TIMEThe High Resolution Ensemble Forecast(HREF),which is a collection of different regional weather forecast models called members,was upgraded in May 2021 by adding several significant new forecast products,which includes ne

224、w methods of generating ensemble mean and probability products for precipitation.The HREF model membership was also changed with the upgrade,extending the forecast range for HREF from 36 to 48 hours,fully covering the day two period for the first time in operations.Forecasters looking for tools to a

225、id in the prediction of near-term,high-impact weather events will benefit from the additional 12 hours of additional lead time that this upgrade provides.In addition to severe weather and extreme precipitation events,this system has applications in the renewable energy sector,like wind energy.GFSv16

226、 correctly predicted the path and strength of Hurricane dorian(shown in green and black)keeping it away from the Florida coast while the operational GFSv15 took the storm inland with much weaker intensity.Shown in this figure is a 132-hr forecast initialized on Aug.27,2019,six days in advance of the

227、 event,which was used as a verfication method.Image credit:noAA48 hour precipitation totals from the november 15,2019 case,showing forecasts from the now retired nMMB member at left and the new FV3 member at center,and the climatology-calibrated Precipitation Analysis(ccPA)of observed precipitation

228、at right.the nMMB has heavy precipitation too far to the northwest;the FV3 correctly keeps it further southeast and more in line with the ccPA.Image credit:noAA nWS/ncEP/EMc1.A.2 M o d EL S35NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS(NBM)UPGRADED TO VERSION 4.0The National Blend of Models(NBM)is a nationally consiste

229、nt and skillful suite of cali-brated forecast guidance based on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and post-processed model guidance.The latest version of the NBM,which was implemented in September 2020,has narrowed the existing NWS prod-uct gap and has also impr

230、oved existing guid-ance.The primary NBM improvements with this implementation centered on the ele-ments associated with aviation weather,water resources,mariners,and tropical weather.Some examples include:(1)Significant improvements in the aviation forecast guid-ance routinely used in daily airport

231、opera-tional planning through 84 hours;(2)advance-ments in the area of heavy precipitation forecasts and its associated uncertainty infor-mation for Alaska,Puerto Rico,and oceanic domains;(3)the addition of statistical fore-cast uncertainty information for temperature forecasts for days 1-10.It is a

232、nticipated that these along with other upgrades will benefit the NWS in its mission to better support their core partners as they make decisions due to weather,water,or climate impacts.STREAMFLOW AND STORM SURGE MODEL UPGRADES RESULT IN IMPROVED FLOOD FORECASTSNOAA upgraded two models related to str

233、eamflow and storm surge to improve flood forecasting.These are the NOAA Water Model(NWM)and the Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge(P-Surge).The NWM simulates observed and forecast streamflow over the continental United States,taking into consideration the water cycle,its different processes,

234、and how they fit together.The upgraded model produced a 48 percent improvement in the contiguous United States for major flood events and a notable reduction in Hawaii-domain false alarms.The NWM upgrade expands the domain to include the Great Lakes drainage basin,and produces an operational NWM for

235、ecast for Puerto Rico and the U.S.Virgin Islands for the first time,and improves forecasts downstream of approximately 500 reservoirs.P-Surge is based on an ensemble of Sea,Lake,and Overland Surge from Hurricanes(SLOSH)model runs which are derived from the National Hurricane Center official advisory

236、 along with historic errors in its track,size,and intensity.The improvements to P-Surge are most pronounced between 36-60 hours prior to tropical system landfall,resulting in better overall forecasts of storm surge in the critical 48-60-hour lead times.By leveraging the improved forecast guidance al

237、lowed by the model updates,NOAA contin-ues to increase the accuracy and availability of mission critical services to the nation.national Blend of Models(top)high temperature forecast and(bottom)probabi-lity of high temperature exceeding 110 degrees F for southern Washington and northern oregon issue

238、d 9 pm Edt Friday June 25,2021,three days ahead of the actual event.Image credit:noAA nWS Whole Story uncertainty and Probability(WSuP)Viewer2 02 1 N O A A S C I EN C E R EP O R T S C I EN C E H I G H L I G H T S361.A.3 FORECASTSNOAA BEGINS USING PROBSEVERE TO ASSIST WEATHER FORECASTERSScientists at

239、 NOAA NESDIS and their part-ners used artificial intelligence to create an application called ProbSevere that helps forecasters provide rapid warnings for torna-does,hail,and straight-line winds.ProbSevere gathers and integrates multiple information types,including satellite,radar,and lightning obse

240、rvations,identifies the pieces with the highest value for addressing severe weather,and provides forecasters with critical insights.For example,during an outbreak of severe weather over portions of southeast Texas on January 6,2021 researchers showed that using ProbSevere in combination with radar s

241、canning can increase forecasters confidence in issuing warnings.HAZARD SERVICES WINTER WEATHER WARNING CAPABILITIES WILL DEPLOY TO NWS NATIONWIDE IN TIME FOR WINTER OF 2022-2023Hazard Services is a software package that consolidates multiple hazard applications used by NWS forecasters into one appli

242、cation and modernizes how NOAA creates forecasts and communicates hazardous weather infor-mation.The easily customizable software allows for promising science and technology to be rapidly incorporated into the warning decision-making process.Hazard Services winter weather capabilities are being eval

243、u-ated operationally at more than 20 NWS fore-cast offices in the winter of 2020-2021 and 2021-2022,and will be deployed nationwide in time for winter 2022-2023.Last winter,more than 200 winter weather watches,warn-ings,and advisories were issued from Hazard Services,providing timely information to

244、NWS partners and the public days ahead of winter weather threats including blizzard conditions,heavy snow,freezing rain,and ice events.GSL balances the needs of replicating current functionality of the NWS software Hazard Services is replac-ing and maintaining a forward-thinking posture for the shif

245、t in paradigm Hazard Services will bring.Nicole McGavock,Service Hydrologist-NWS Tulsa,OK(TSA)Artificial intelligence-derived information,available within the Advanced Wea-ther Interactive Processing System,helps forecasters at noAA nWS issue timely severe weather warnings.Image credit:noAA nESdISth

246、e Hazard Services winter weather workflow being evaluated during the thanksgiving Blizzard of 2019.Hazard Services is providing forecasters the ability to use just one software to issue warnings during winter weather events.Image credit:Vada dreisbach,university of colorado/cooperative Institute for

247、 research in Environmental Sciences and noAA research/GSL1.A.3 F o rE c A S t S37COLLABORATIVE FORECAST PROCESS ENHANCES EXPLORATION OF WARN-ON-FORECAST SYSTEM USE FOR FORECASTING SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODINGNOAA hosted the virtual 2021 Warn-on-Forecast(WoF)testbed experiment to explore how a r

248、evolutionary new computer model could help the NOAA NWS issue more spe-cific and timely warnings for severe weather and flash flooding.During severe weather events,every half hour the experimental Warn-on-Forecast System(WoFS)creates 18 forecasts,all with slightly different inputs,to predict the mov

249、ement and intensity of indi-vidual thunderstorms at the city level,several hours into the future.WoFS takes advan-tage of radar and satellite data in new ways,and provides a confidence estimate based on similarity between the 18 forecasts.The WoF virtual experiment broke new ground,as forecasters fr

250、om NWS local offices(called Weather Forecasting Offices,WFOs)worked with two national offices to perform weather-event simulations in a cloud-based version of NWS software.During the four-week experi-ment,the simulations primed forecasters to discuss their expectations of how to use WoFS in current

251、NWS operations or future operations.Insights gained will help estab-lish strategies for using WoFS collaboratively between NWS local and national offices.“Hands-on experience with WoFS and the chance to experiment in a no-risk environment allowed me to become more familiar with WoFS,try out ideas,an

252、d think outside the box.”-Forecaster“The focus groups not only provided me a chance to share my forecast process but also gain more perspective on what other national centers and WFOs(local offices)are using and doing during times of high impact weather situations and how they incorporated WoFS into

253、 their own forecast flowchart.”-ForecasterA snapshot of participants working a simulation together during the 2021 Warn-on-Forecast testbed experiment.Image credit:Katie Wilson,university of oklahoma cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather research and operations/noAA research/nSSL2

254、 02 1 N O A A S C I EN C E R EP O R T S C I EN C E H I G H L I G H T S381.A.4 HUMAN BEHAVIOREXPANDING SOCIAL AND BEHAVIORAL DATA AVAILABILITY TO IMPROVE COMMUNICATION OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND PROBABILISTIC INFORMATIONNOAA NWS has expanded the availability of the Weather and Society Dashboard(Wx D

255、ashboard)to the NWS cloud platform.The Wx Dashboard,developed by the University of Oklahomas Center for Risk and Crisis Management through the NOAA Joint Technology Transfer Initiative(JTTI)Program,is a dynamic interface and database of survey information reflecting the publics perception,response,a

256、nd readiness to severe and tornadic events.The Dashboard enables forecasters to better understand public perception and the nuances associated with demographics so that they can best message and prepare the public to respond to severe weather events.The Dashboard will support the development of a ba

257、seline and performance metrics for messaging associated with severe and tornadic events to improve impact-based decision support services(IDSS)in saving lives and property.the Wx dashboard will help nWS forecasters and partners better understand the communities they serve,by displaying results from

258、the university of oklahomas Weather and Society Survey in a useful format.Image credits:dr.Joe ripberger/university of oklahomas center for risk and crisis Management and noAA1.A.4 H u M A n B E H AV I o r39METEOROLOGY AWARDS:AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY(AMS)Charles L.Mitchell Award Awarded to Jo

259、hn M.Brown for selfless dedication during more than four decades of service in developing forecast techniques,advancing model perfor-mance,training forecasters,and forecasting for large field programs Award for Exceptional Specific Prediction Awarded to Bryan T.Smith for a highly specific and accura

260、te prediction of a strong supercell event with long lead time that saved livesAMS Editors Award for Weather and Forecasting Awarded to Michael Coniglio for consistently providing high quality,constructive,and rigorous reviews that help to uphold the high standards of AMS journals committeesNATIONAL

261、WEATHER ASSOCIATION(NWA)Dr.T.Theodore Fujita Research Achievement Award Awarded to Pam Heinselman for outstanding leadership of the NOAA/NSSL Warn-on-Forecast research and develop-ment program,particularly her work in developing collabora-tions with the operational community that have strengthened t

262、he research-to-operations and operations-to-research pipelinesSOUTH KOREAN MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENTMinisters Commendation Awarded to Hyun Cheol Kim for contributions to South Korean air quality research2 02 1 N O A A S C I EN C E R EP O R T S C I EN C E H I G H L I G H T S401B.CLIMATE CHANGEThe Execu

263、tive Order on Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad(EO 14008)emphasizes the importance of NOAAs cli-mate science,products,and services,which increase our understanding of the impacts of climate change and provide decision support for at-risk communities.NOAA observation and monitoring syste

264、ms provide long-term data to identify trends and feedback in the climate system.NOAA models produce bul-letins and outlooks of future conditions,which the public can use to assess their risk to societal impacts of climate and respond with mitigating and adaptive actions.Approaching climate science w

265、ork with an environmental justice framework is key for NOAA to improve the accessibility,usefulness,and impact of the science and services.Observation/Monitoring SystemsAssess,Model,and PredictCommunicate RiskClimate ResponseActionsObservation/Monitoring SystemsLong-term observations are essential f

266、or identifying climate trends.NOAA collects and assimilates long-term observations on land,in the water,and from the atmosphere and space in order to monitor the climate system and provide baseline data for models.Assess,Model,and PredictNOAA produces higher level data products from climate observat

267、ions and develops mod-els in order to assess the past,present,and future conditions of the Earths climate sys-tem.NOAA produces forecasts,bulletins,and outlooks for informing risk assessments of hazardous climate conditions.Communicate RiskForecasts of future climate scenarios are used to communicat

268、e risk to ecosystems,species,and communities and inform decision making.Climate Response Actions Members of the public can use NOAA prod-ucts and services to develop and implement climate response plans and make decisions regarding adaptation and mitigation.1 B.c L I M At E c H A n G E41Observation/

269、Monitoring SystemsAssess,Model,and PredictCommunicate RiskClimate ResponseActionsSpotlightObservation/Monitoring SystemsCities across the country and worldwide are facing increasing and inequitably distributed challenges around extreme heat,a threat that kills more Americans than any other weather e

270、vent.The National Integrated Heat Health Information System(NIHHIS),an inter-agency initiative led by NOAA,is coordinat-ing community science field campaigns to expose how individuals within their own cities are experiencing heat differently,and what municipalities can do to create healthy and equit

271、able cities as the climate warms.NIHHIS conducts the campaigns through a Public-Private Partnership with CAPA Strategies,LLC(CAPA);together they have coordinated heat mapping campaigns in more than 55 U.S.cities to date.The NOAA NWS provides forecasts to help the communities plan their campaigns and

272、 NOAA NESDIS provides data hosting support.Each community has myriad partners including local government,science museums,environmental justice organiza-tions,private sector companies,and commu-nity groups who organize and plan the cam-paigns locally.Assess,Model,and PredictOnce the measurements are

273、collected by volunteers,CAPA uses machine learning(artificial intelligence)techniques to process the data and model air temperature and heat index using satellite imagery as well as other regional observations.Communicate RiskThe maps produced provide critically needed urban heat island profiles of

274、communities to inform heat-health risk reduction actions at the neighborhood scale.Climate Response ActionsCommunities have used this information to increase awareness among community mem-bers and civic leaders,inform climate action and resilience planning,as well as direct additional research on ef

275、fective solutions to ultimately create healthier,safer,and more resilient cities.2 02 1 N O A A S C I EN C E R EP O R T S C I EN C E H I G H L I G H T S421.B.1 OBSERVATION/MONITORING SYSTEMSLAKE MICHIGANS RISING TEMPERATURE:TROUBLING CLIMATE CHANGE SIGNALA long-term study published by NOAA Research

276、reveals a warming trend in Lake Michigans deep water temperatures that foreshadows pro-found ecological change on the horizon.Using a unique,continuous 30-year dataset of approxi-mately hourly deep water temperature mea-surements,NOAA scientists showed that Lake Michigans seasonal mixing patterns ar

277、e being affected by climate change.With increased delays in the onset of cooler autumn weather over the past three decades,the annual mix-ing cycle has shifted and Lake Michigans deep waters now have shorter winter seasons.This change could eventually alter Lake Michigans ecological productivity and

278、 disrupt the entire food web,negatively impacting fisheries and recreation.The deep water conditions of the Earths largest lakes are a missing piece of the global climate change puzzle,and NOAAs monitoring of the Great Lakes will pave the way for understanding these changes.NOAA RELEASES A NEW SET O

279、F U.S.CLIMATE NORMALS FOR 1991-2020NOAA NESDIS released the 1991-2020 U.S.climate normals for 15,000 observation loca-tions in May 2021.This set of temperature,precipitation,and other climate variables and statistics is used by NOAA NWS and com-mercial broadcast meteorologists to provide a baseline

280、for comparing todays weather and tomorrows forecast to the current climate.noAA GLErL scientists deploy a thermistor chain for long-term temperature monitoring in southern Lake Michigan,1999.Photo credit:M.Mccormick,noAA research/GLErLu.S.annual average temperature normals in the contiguous u.S.for

281、30-year periods up to the present minus the 1901-2000 20th-century average.Warming has impacted temperature normals substantially in recent periods.Maps by noAA climate.gov,based on analysis by Jared rennie,north carolina Institute for climate Studies/noAA nESdIS/ncEI1.B.1 o B S Er VAt I o n/M o n I

282、 to r I n G S Y S t EM S43In addition,climate normals characterize the state of the current climate and are used in decision making by both public departments and private businesses involved in many U.S.economic sectors,including energy,agricul-ture,construction,and general commerce.The annual,seaso

283、nal,monthly,daily,and hourly climate normals are calculated using established peer-reviewed methodologies designed by NOAA scientists to account for issues with observation quality,ensure con-sistency,and meet user requirements.Climate normals are a utilitarian product,but they also carry within the

284、m the fingerprints of climate change as they evolve over time,as can be seen in the rapid increases in temperatures over the last several nomals cycles.NOAA MONITORS DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM SPACENOAA extended a data record from its new generation polar orbiting satellites to 2012-2021 and increased

285、the ability to monitor global drought conditions.Data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite(VIIRS)were used to derive weekly vegeta-tion health,moisture condition,and thermal condition data at one-kilometer resolution(approximately 0.62 miles).NOAA scientists use these data to monitor a

286、griculture,food security,vegetation health,crops thermal and moisture stress,and climate change.The U.S.Department of Agriculture uses this data on vegetation health as vegetative health prod-ucts can be used as proxy data for monitoring soil saturation,desertification,fire risk,land degradation,cro

287、p and pasture productivity,and more.NOAAS IMPROVED ABILITY TO DETECT CLIMATE TEMPERATURE TRENDSNOAA NESDIS combined observations from multiple satellites to create an atmospheric temperature time series.The accuracy of this new time series in trend detection is better than 0.02 degree Fahrenheit per

288、 decade.As a result,it may serve as a reference mea-surement of climate variability and trends in atmospheric temperatures.The warming rate from this time series for the atmospheric layer between the Earths surface and 10 kilometers is 0.41 degree Fahrenheit per decade during the period from 2002 to

289、 2020.The new time series can be used as a reference to identify errors in trend detections produced by other time series developed by different research groups.It can also be used to verify climate model simulations of atmospheric tempera-ture trends with high accuracy.Vegetative health and drought

290、 information from the noAA-20 satellites VIIrS instrument.Image credit:noAA nESdISdeseasonalized monthly global mean anomaly time series of mid-tropospheric temperatures merged from Aqua,Metop-A,Suomi nPP,and noAA-20 satellites.Anomalies are relative to a monthly climatology of the Metop-A period fr

291、om January 2008 to december 2017.Image credit:c.-z.zou,noAA nESdIS/StAr2 02 1 N O A A S C I EN C E R EP O R T S C I EN C E H I G H L I G H T S44FRIGID ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAKS MAY BE PREDICTABLEThe winds in the polar stratosphere are increasingly linked to weather extremes.The rapid slowdown of stratosp

292、heric winds,called a“sudden stratospheric warming”(SSW),is well-known for increasing the likelihood of cold extremes over the eastern U.S.,northern Europe,and Asia during the wintertime.These events can also cause additional weather extremes,including warmer than normal temperatures in the Canadian

293、Arctic and Middle East,and increased risk of flooding in the Mediterranean.NOAA Research is shedding light on the importance of understanding how the stratosphere influences extreme weather conditions at the surface,which may lead to being able to predict weather extremes weeks in advance,providing

294、lead time for preparation and response.Image credit:noAA climate.gov1.B.1 o B S Er VAt I o n/M o n I to r I n G S Y S t EM S45UNDERSTANDING OCEAN ACIDIFICATION ALONG THE U.S.WEST COASTThe California Current System,running along the North American west coast from south British Columbia to Baja Califo

295、rnia,is a region where seasonal upwelling brings nutrient-and carbon dioxide-rich and oxygen-poor waters to the surface.Increasing levels of carbon dioxide from upwelling and anthropogenic emissions cause a series of chemical reac-tions that are ultimately increasing acidity in these waters.Because

296、the California Current System is an area with high rates of primary production by phytoplankton,air-sea carbon dioxide exchange,and carbon export to the open ocean and sediments,it is particularly susceptible to the impacts of ocean acidifi-cation and hypoxia(or low-oxygen levels).In June and July 2

297、021,NOAA and partner scien-tists aboard the NOAA Ship Ronald H.Brown set out on the West Coast Ocean Acidification Research Cruise to characterize conditions along the West Coast of North America and continue to build a unique time-series of car-bon and hydrographic measurements in areas expected to

298、 be highly impacted by ocean acidification.Scientists have been collecting samples from CTDs(tools that measure tem-perature,depth,and conductivity),collecting plankton and water samples for genomics analysis,and conducting the first systematic regional survey of methane gas coming out of the thousa

299、nds of seeps along the West Coast.The comprehensive approach taken on this years missioncombining detailed physical,this image depicts the difference in thickness between two specimens of the pteropod Limacina helicina,one collected in more acidified coastal waters,the other collected offshore,that

300、were analyzed as part of a new study published in Science reports.Image courtesy of Lisette Mekkes,naturalis Biodiversity center;used with permissionExternal carapace and pereopod exoskeleton of the dungeness crab megalopae(a)in its undamaged form(b,c)and with dissolution presence ranging from mild(

301、Stage 1;d)to severe(Stage 2;e,f)patterns showing similarity in the structural damages(g)or exposed crystals(h).Image from:Bednarsek et al.2020,used with permission2 02 1 N O A A S C I EN C E R EP O R T S C I EN C E H I G H L I G H T S46chemical and biological measurementswill not only allow scientis

302、ts to better understand how the ocean is changing,but also test what new tools can be used to assess the future of these important marine ecosystems.With data collected from this cruise and previous ocean acidification cruises in this region,scientists are documenting the changing ocean acidificatio

303、n conditions and how they are impacting marine ecosystems against a backdrop of multiple stressors including warming and deoxygenation.In 2016,measurements from this cruise demonstrated,for the first time,that ocean acidification along the U.S.Pacific Northwest coast is impacting the shells and sens

304、ory organs of some larval Dungeness crab,and that pteropods sampled near the coasts of Washington and Oregon had shells 37 percent thinner than those in waters further offshore.MARINE ECOSYSTEMS ARE IMPACTED BY THE PACE OF CHANGE IN HUMAN ACTIVITIESNOAA Fisheries scientists and partners merged data

305、on fish behavior and demographics in a coral reef ecosystem to better understand how ecosystems respond to human activities like changing fishing practices.Their work reveals that ecosystems respond to more than just how much seafood is harvested.Because of interactions between harvested and unharve

306、sted species,ecosystems also are impacted by how quickly harvest policies change.The results of this work illustrate the importance of ecosystem-based approaches to management.The research team was awarded the 2020 Cozzarelli Prize.This prestigious prize is given annually to six teams published in t

307、he journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences whose articles made out-standing contributions to their fields.Each team represents one of the six classes of the National Academy of Sciences.Munch,Hein,and their co-authors won in the category of Applied Biological,Agricultural,and Environ

308、mental Sciences.1.B.2 A S S E S S,M o d EL,A n d P rE d I c t471.B.2 ASSESS,MODEL,AND PREDICTEVALUATING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MANAGED MARINE SPECIES AND FISHING COMMUNITIESThe “Future Seas”project is a collaborative,interdisciplinary effort to explore potential impacts of climate change on U.

309、S.West Coast fisheries and evaluate strategies for manag-ing those impacts.The project uses a suite of models combined in a framework to explore physical changes,socioeconomic conse-quences,and other impacts under potential future climate scenarios and evaluate uncer-tainty in the models.This year,t

310、he team completed detailed projections of West Coast ocean conditions out to the year 2100 and used them to project potential climate-driven changes in the distributions and landings of Pacific sardine and albacore tuna in the California Current System.Project members from NOAA and academic partners

311、 provide information and scientific advice on climate resilience for West Coast fisheries using a management strategy evaluation framework informed by the projected changes in fish pro-ductivity and distribution.NOAAS FIRST COUPLED CARBON-CHEMISTRY-CLIMATE MODELNOAA has released its first model that

312、 cap-tures the interactions among carbon,chem-istry,and climate in order to improve the understanding of how these interact and reduce the uncertainty in future projections of climate change.The model incorporates state-of-the-art representations and interac-tions among atmospheric dynamics,physics

313、and chemistry,ocean physics,biogeochemis-try and ecosystems,sea ice,and land physics,biogeochemistry and ecosystems.The new model features vastly improved climate mean patterns and variability from previous chemis-try and carbon coupled models.Pictorial representation of the components of and linkag

314、es between elements that make up the new Earth System Model.Image citation:dunne et al.(2020,JAMES,https:/doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002015)Figure 12 02 1 N O A A S C I EN C E R EP O R T S C I EN C E H I G H L I G H T S481.B.3 COMMUNICATE RISKCOASTAL MANAGERS EVALUATE VULNERABILITY OF TIDAL MARSHES TO IN

315、FORM RESTORATIONA NOAA NOS-funded project,led by scien-tists at Oregon State University and the U.S.Geological Survey,enhanced an ecosystem model that projects how sea-level rise(SLR)may affect tidal marshes in the San Francisco Bay-Delta,including their long-term eleva-tion and capacity for carbon

316、sequestration(the process of capturing and storing atmo-spheric carbon dioxide).Local partners are using the results from the project to make natural resource management decisions.The San Francisco Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve is using these results to better understand impacts of SLR and

317、 other changing environmental conditions(salin-ity,sediment,and vegetation)on their man-aged wetlands.Californias Delta Stewardship Council has integrated these results into their climate change planning work.In addition,the Sonoma Land Trust in California is using this information for the long term

318、 planning of the Petaluma River watershed,informing land acquisition and restoration plans.In April 2021,an NOS-led StoryMap was published that will allow coastal managers to under-stand the science behind SLR and visually evaluate wetland vulnerability to it,continuing to influence how marshes are

319、managed in the region.An example of predicted marsh changes with sea-level rise in the San Francisco Bay-delta.details of the WArMEr model used to produce these results and additional information on the project can be found in the story map.Image credit:noAA noS/ncoSS“The WARMER-2 update and its ass

320、ociated products have been critical to assessing risk to the California Deltas tidal wetlands and are playing a key role in the Delta Adapts Climate Vulnerability Assessment recently completed by the Delta Stewardship Council.Looking forward,the results will be an impor-tant component of developing

321、the Adaptation Strategy for the Delta Adapts effort.”Dr.Dylan Chappel,Senior Environment Scientist with the Delta Stewardship Council NOAA CLIMATE SCIENTISTS CONTRIBUTED TO THE 2021 IPCC REPORTThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a body under the United Nations created to provide scienti

322、fic assessments on climate change for policy makers.Their report,released every six to seven years,includes the current state of the knowledge on climate change,projections,implica-tions,potential future risks,and adaptation and mitigation strategies.Their most recent report,released in August 2021,

323、showcases international collaboration between more than 200 climate scientists from around 60 countries,including scientists from NOAA Research and NOAA NESDIS.Their contribu-tions and expertise to this report is vital for our planet and helps support NOAAs leader-ship on addressing the climate cris

324、is.1.B.4 c L I M At E rE S P o n S E A c t I o n S491.B.4 CLIMATE RESPONSE ACTIONSTESTING INTERVENTION STRATEGIES TO ENHANCE CORAL RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGENOAA supports work to increase coral resil-ience to climate change in response to a National Academies of Sciences,Engineering,and Medicine s

325、tudy to review and evaluate potential novel ecological and genetic coral interventions and the resulting NOAA Action Plan on Coral Interventions.Examples include research on manipulating the symbiotic algae in corals to reduce heat stress and bleach-ing,advancing monitoring technologies using coral

326、images(for example,through CoralNet as shown in the associate figure)and artificial intelligence to track corals responses to dis-turbances like heat waves,and innovative res-cue efforts in response to stony coral tissue loss disease.Study results are informing res-toration strategies to enhance cor

327、al resilience to climate change,such as techniques to improve the tolerance of nursery-grown cor-als to various stressors,and where to outplant those corals on the reef so that they have the best chance of surviving and reproduc-ing.For example,genomic analyses provide information to facilitate iden

328、tification of corals that are able to withstand and recover from stressors,such as increased water tempera-ture,and those corals could be used to grow more resilient corals in nurseries.coralnet is a software package that uses artificial intelligence to analyze benthic photos to classify corals.Imag

329、e credit:noAA Fisheries/PIFScANDREA GOMEZ PHD.Dr.Andrea Gomez earned her PhD in 2020 from The City College of New York as a NOAA Center for Earth System Science and Remote Sensing Technologies(CESSRST)fellow.Her research entitled“Evaluating Satellite-Based Sea Surface Temperatures and In Situ Observ

330、ations,and Coral Symbioses in Southwestern Puerto Rico”sought to characterize the seasonal changes of algae symbiont identity and density using NOAA Coral Reef Watch 5km satellite-based sea surface temperatures and in-situ temperature loggers.While pursuing her PhD,Dr.Gomez completed a 12 week gradu

331、ate internship with the NOAA/OAR Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorology Laboratory entitled“Satellite Measured Sea Temperatures and Comparison with Vertical Temperature Profiles Near a Coral Reef Ecosystem in South Florida”.Dr.Gomez was hired using the Conservation Corps Act of 2019 Direct Hire Auth

332、ority by the NOAA/NMFS Greater Atlantic Regional Fisheries Office as a Communications Specialist in 2021.EPP/MSI Alum Andrea Gomez.Photo courtesy of Andrea Gomez2.SUSTAINABLE USE AND STEWARDSHIP OFCOASTAL AND OCEAN RESOURCESOur ocean,coasts,and Great Lakes are home to diverse ecosystems,support fish

333、eries and aquaculture,and provide tourism and recre-ation opportunities.NOAA science seeks a better understanding of the biogeochemi-cal and human processes that impact these resources and informs their conservation,res-toration,and sustainable use.In 2021,NOAAs scientific accomplishments for enhancing the sustainable use and stew-ardship of ocean and coastal resources included the following categ