1、African Economic Outlook 2019 Macroeconomic performance and prospects Jobs, growth, and fi rm dynamism Integration for Africas economic prosperity African Economic Outlook 2019 The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the African Developme

2、nt Bank, its Boards of Directors, or the countries they represent. This document, as well as any data and maps included, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries, and to the name of any territory, city, or

3、 area. ISBN 978-9938-882-87-2 (print) ISBN 978-9938-882-87-2 (electronic) Cover design by the African Development Bank based on images from S African Development Bank 2019 You may copy, download, or print this material for your own use, and you may include excerpts from this publication in your own

4、documents, presentations, blogs, websites, and teaching materials, as long as the African Development Bank is suitably acknowledged as the source and copyright owner. iii The state of the continent is good. Africas general economic performance continues to improve, with gross domestic product growth

5、 reaching an estimated 3.5 percent in 2018, about the same as in 2017 and up 1.4 percent- age points from the 2.1 percent in 2016. Looking forward, African economic growth is projected to accelerate to 4 percent in 2019 and 4.1 percent in 2020. While higher than that of other emerging and developing

6、 countries, it remains insufficient to address the structural chal- lenges of persistent current and fiscal deficits and debt vulnerability. The challenge is thus twofold: to raise the current growth path and to increase the efficiency of growth in generating employment. The 2019 African Economic Ou

7、tlook high- lights that macroeconomic stabilization and employment outcomes are better when industry leads growth, suggesting that industrialization is a robust path to rapid job creation. How- ever, African economies have deindustrialized. Although structural change is occurring, it has been throug

8、h the rise of the services sector, which has been largely dominated by informality, low productivity, and an inability to create quality jobs. To avoid the informality trap and chronic unemployment, Africa needs to industrialize and add value to its abundant agricultural, mineral, and other natural

9、resources. Perhaps the most significant decision by African political leaders last year was their col- lective willingness to move forward with Africas economic integration. A borderless Africa is not just a political ideal. It would lay the foundation for a competitive continental market to acceler

10、ate growth and allow Africa to be more competitive in global trade and value chains. It would also allow industries to develop across borders, creating economies of scale for investors as they look at wider integrated markets. And it would foster inter-firm competition, raise intrafirm productivity,

11、 and support growth of small and medium enter- prises and large African conglomerates. It would help eliminate monopoly positions while enhanc- ing cross-border spillovers between coastal and landlocked countries. At a deeper level, regional integration can improve regional security, since the expan

12、sion of international trade often cor- relates with a reduced incidence of conflict. The 2019 Outlook shows that countries do not benefit equally from regional integration, so the incentives and commitments vary by country circumstances. But all African countries would fare better with more integrat

13、ion than without it. The great news is that things are moving in the right direction. The recently issued 3rd edition of the Africa Visa Openness Index Report 2018, also published by the African Development Bank with the Africa Union Commission, shows that African countries are on average becoming m

14、ore open to each other. But the fact that Africans still require visas to travel to just over half of other African countries shows that more progress is needed to realize free movement of people continent-wide. This years Outlook offers new and timely ana- lytics to show how African economies are i

15、ntegrat- ing, how regional public goods are moving inte- gration beyond the purely economic domain, and how the Continental Free Trade Agreement can generate substantial gains for all African countries. African countries should work even more closely together and move toward a common future of colle

16、ctive wealth and prosperity. Dr. Akinwumi A. Adesina, President African Development Bank Group FOREWORD v Foreword iii Acknowledgments ix Highlights xiii Chapter 1 Africas macroeconomic performance and prospects 1 Growth performance and outlook 2 Macroeconomic stability: Some progress, but challenge

17、s remain 11 External imbalances and implications for long-term growth 19 Policy implications 38 Annex 1.1 41 Notes 43 References 43 Chapter 2 Jobs, growth, and firm dynamism 45 The challenge of creating jobs in higher productivity sectors 46 Informality is the dominant sector for employment in Afric

18、a 46 Growth acceleration episodes and job growth 48 Constraints to firm dynamism 55 Policy implications 59 Annex 2.1 Detailed sample results 64 Notes 72 References 73 Chapter 3 Integration for Africas economic prosperity 75 Integrating the African market: Outcomes so far 78 Cooperating for regional

19、public goods 95 The Continental Free Trade Area in the broader landscape of African integration 105 Expected gains from the Continental Free Trade Agreement 114 Dos and donts for integration policy makers 121 Notes 123 References 126 Country notes 131 Abbreviations 186 CONTENTS vi CONTENTS Boxes 1 C

20、ustomizing regional integration strategies and policies xxiv 1.1 Commodity price fluctuations and GDP uncertainty in Africa 4 1.2 Potential impacts of escalating trade tensions: Modest contraction but opportunities for deeper intraregional integration in Africa 12 1.3 What defines external sustainab

21、ility? 20 1.4 The relationship among the current account, investment, and savings 25 3.1 Common external tariffs: Challenges for poor countries 81 3.2 Monitoring progress toward a customs union in the East African Community 82 3.3 Does financial integration drive economic activity in Africa? 92 3.4

22、From desert to powerhouse 98 3.5 Integrating power grids as a regional public good 98 3.6 Cooperating to tax mining 100 3.7 What night lights reveal about trading across borders 103 3.8 Open skies in Africa 104 3.9 Tradeoffs in an integration trilemma 107 3.10 Lessons for regional integration from t

23、he textile and apparel sector 108 3.11 South African supermarket chains and their impact on regional integration 110 3.12 Estimating efficiency and revenue gains in five scenarios 117 Figures 1.1 Real GDP growth in Africa, 201020 3 1.2 Real GDP growth in Africa and GDP growth needed to absorb the gr

24、owing labor force, 201020 4 1.3 Energy subsidies as a share of nominal GDP, African oil exporters, 201314 and 201517 5 1.4 Energy subsidies as a share of GDP, African oil importers, 201314 and 201517 6 1.5 Contribution to GDP growth in Africa, by region, 201620 6 1.6 Real GDP growth, by country, 201

25、8 8 1.7 Contribution to GDP growth in Africa, by country, 201020 9 1.8 Consumption as proportion of GDP in Africa, emerging and developing Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean, 200118 9 1.9 Investment as a proportion of GDP in Africa, emerging and developing Asia, and Latin America and the Cari

26、bbean, 200118 10 1.10 Net exports as a proportion of GDP in Africa, emerging and developing Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean, 200118 10 1.11 Contributions of demand components to GDP growth in Africa, 200518 11 1.12 Consumer price inflation, by country, 2017 and 2018 13 1.13 Real GDP growth

27、 and primary fiscal balances, by country, 201416 and 201718 14 1.14 Average fiscal balance, by country group, 201020 15 1.15 Current and capital expenditures in Africa, 201018 16 1.16 Ratio of capital expenditure to current expenditure, 201018 16 1.17 Sources of external financing in Africa, 200517

28、17 1.18 Average annual foreign direct investment inflows to Africa, by region, 200510 and 201117 17 1.19 Net official development assistance to Africa from all donors, by country group, 200516 18 1.20 Average annual official development assistance to Africa, by region, 200510 and 201116 18 1.21 Gros

29、s government debtto-GDP ratio in Africa, 200817 19 1.22 Current account balance in Africa, 19902017, and decomposition of the current account balance in Africa, 200016 21 1.23 Current account balances in Africa by exporter type, region, and country 22 1.24 Weighted average of African exports and imp

30、orts, 19902016 24 CONTENTS vii 1.25 Weighted average exports and imports in Africa, by region, 200016 24 1.26 Weighted average exports and imports in Africas five largest economies, 200016 25 1.27 The relationship between the current account balance and public and private savings and investment in A

31、frica, 200017 26 1.28 Weighted average investment and public and private savings in Africa, 19902017 27 1.29 Investment and savings in Africa, by region, 200017 27 1.30 Investment and savings in Africas five largest economies, 200017 28 1.31 Share of raw materials in exports, by world region, 199020

32、15 31 1.32 Relationship between share of capital goods in merchandise imports and share of raw materials in exports five years later in Africa 31 1.33 Share of intermediate goods and capital goods in imports in Africa, by country, 2015 32 1.34 Relationship between share of capital goods in imports a

33、nd future industry and manufacturing shares in value added in Africa 33 1.35 Relationship between gross private capital formation and future exports as a share of GDP and industry share in value added in Africa 33 1.36 Relationship between intermediate goods imports and future industry share in valu

34、e added in Africa 34 1.37 Relationship between intermediate goods imports and global competitiveness score in Africa 35 1.38 Shares of capital and intermediate goods in imports in African economies, 200015 35 1.39 Relationship between the current trade balance and the future trade balance in Africa

35、39 2.1 Africa has the highest share of informal employment in the world, various years 47 2.2 Informal employment varies by gender and education, 2018 48 2.3 Informality is highest in low-income countries, and unemployment in middle-income countries in Africa, 19992010 49 2.4 Effects of growth accel

36、eration episodes on the growth elasticity of employment vary by sector and by the driver of growth, 19582016 51 2.5 Industry employment and value added shares in Africa started low and have grown slowly, 19602016 52 2.6 Relationship between industry shares in employment and value added and GDP per c

37、apita, 19602016 and 2014 53 2.7 Large firms are more productive and pay more than small firms, and the differences are greater in manufacturing than in services, most recent year available during 200617 54 2.8 Africa has mostly small firms, most recent year available during 200617 55 2.9 Annual firm

38、 exit rates in Africa vary by country and firm size, various years 56 2.10 Entry rates vary by firm size and country, various years 57 2.11 Biggest obstacles to doing business in Africa, by firm size and sector, most recent year available during 200617 58 2.12 Biggest obstacles in Africa, by firm si

39、ze and region, most recent year available during 200617 60 2.13 Estimated marginal effects of business obstacles on firm survival, most recent year available during 200317 61 2.14 Estimated number of jobs lost each year in Africa because of business obstacles, most recent year available during 20031

40、7 62 A2.1 Employment and value added shares in Africa, by country, 19602016 70 3.1 Africa trade and economic organizations 77 3.2 Trade intensity indices two years before and five years after implementation of regional economic communities 83 3.3 New manufactured products are going regional 84 3.4 A

41、fricas calibrated trade costs are falling, in line with global trends, 19952015 86 viii CONTENTS 3.5 Coverage of provisions covered by the World Trade Organization and provisions not covered by the World Trade Organization in seven African regional trade agreements and SouthSouth regional trade agre

42、ements, by legal enforceability 87 3.6 Financial openness is progressing slowly, except in the East African Community, 19702016 94 3.7 Dispersions in lending rates spiked in 199598 and 200306, revealing fragmented financial markets in Africa, 19902016 95 3.8 Investments in hard infrastructure increa

43、se trade and make further investment profitable 101 3.9 Unfriendly soft infrastructure explains why transport costs are so high in Africa 103 3.10 Africas economy, with many small markets, is smaller than Frances 106 3.11 Tariffs on intermediate goods are still higher in Africa than in other regions

44、, 200015 112 3.12 Percentage change in real income across four trade integration scenarios for Africa and the world 116 3.13 Percentage change in real income across four trade integration scenarios, by African subregion 118 3.14 Tariff revenues before and after eliminating bilateral tariffs on intra

45、-African trade 120 Tables 1.1 Real GDP growth in Africa, 201020 3 1.2 Real GDP growth in Africa, by region, 201020 7 1.3 Trade balance regression 29 1.4 Net welfare gain from membership in the West African Economic and Monetary Union 36 1.5 Net welfare gain or loss from adding countries one by one t

46、o the West African Economic and Monetary Union 37 A1.1 Macroeconomic developments in Africa, 201020 41 2.1 Twenty growth acceleration episodes in 10 African countries, by driving sector, 19582016 50 2.2 Transition matrix for firm dynamism in Africa, most recent year available during 200317 55 A2.1 A

47、frican countries in the analytic sample for growth acceleration episodes 64 A2.2 Average annual growth rates of value added in sample African countries, by growth acceleration episode and sector 65 A2.3 Average annual growth rates of employment shares in sample African countries, by growth accelerat

48、ion episode and sector 66 A2.4 Effects of growth acceleration episodes on employment intensity of growth in sample African countries, by sector 67 A2.5 Industry shares in value added and employment, with income and decade effects 68 A2.6 Multinomial estimates of conditional firm dynamics, various ye

49、ars 69 3.1 Applied tariffs: Average intraregional tariffs and most favored nation tariffs, 2016 79 3.2 Service trade restrictions are generally much higher in Africa than elsewhere, 2015 88 3.3 Nearly 80 percent of Africas immigrants came from elsewhere in the region, 2017 89 3.4 Structure of capital markets in Africa, 2017 93 3.5 Beyond economic integration to regional public goods 96 3.6 Simulated reduction in trade costs for imports from implementing the Trade Facilitation Agreement (average across African RECs and other country groups) 115 3.7 Changes in trade value and volume