1、Li+Li+Li+Li+Li+Li+Li+Li+Li+Li+Li+Li+Li+Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report

2、 as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures,see the Disclosure Appendix,or go to employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.The Goldman Sachs Group,Inc.Hugo Nicolaci+6

3、1(2)9321-8323 hugo.nicol Gol dman Sachs Austr al ia Pty LtdEQUITYRESEARCH|April 27,2023|9:31PM AESTPaul Young+61(2)9321-8302 Gol dman Sachs Austr al ia Pty LtdElise Bailey+61(3)9679-1344 el ise.bail Gol dman Sachs Austr al ia Pty LtdThe implementation of Direct Lithium Extraction(DLE)technologies ha

4、s the potential to significantly increase the supply of lithium from brine projects(much like shale did for oil),nearly doubling lithium production on higher recoveries and improving project returns,though with the added bonus of offering ESG/sustainability benefits,while also widening rather than s

5、teepening the lithium cost curve.We explore the progress,economics,and implications of DLE being implemented at scale,with increasing relevance in the context of Chiles recent National Lithium Policy.Potential game changing technology:A number of proven DLE technologies are emerging and being tested

6、 at scale,with a handful of projects already in commercial construction.While there may still be challenges around scalability and water consumption/brine reinjection,with the ongoing efforts,DLE could be implemented between 2025-2030 in both Chile and Argentina,in our view(compared with market skep

7、ticism on development by 2030).We estimate on scenarios/benchmarking the capital intensity range of DLE is comparable with a traditional pond project,where risk of a higher upfront capital intensity is potentially offset by lower unit costs.We see NPV breakeven for a DLE project(80%+recovery)vs.a tr

8、aditional pond(50%)at opex of 20 x,water usage and metrics improve on potential brine reinjection),while also widening(rather than steepening)the lithium cost curve.A number of proven DLE technologies are emerging and being tested at scale,with a handful of projects already in commercial scale const

9、ruction(some China projects in production).Though the application of technologies used in DLE processes may be fairly new to the lithium industry,many are already utilised across other commodities.While there may still be key challenges around scalability,water consumption,and brine reinjection,with

10、 the ongoing efforts,DLE could be implemented between 2025-2030 in both Chile and Argentina,in our view,both as greenfield projects and brownfield expansions,or to enhance recoveries of existing pond operations.Chiles recent National Lithium Policy(NLP)also pushes for new lithium projects to impleme

11、nt DLE for water/environmental concerns,further supporting an accelerating implementation of DLE technologies.This compares with market skepticism around commercial development of DLE by the end of the decade(from discussions with investors).We set out a summary of the processes for traditional brin

12、e ponds and key DLE technologies below,with a more detailed comparison of the variations in a later section.Exhibit 1:Comparison of lit hium ext ract ion met hods Lithium extraction methodsHard RockMiningEvaporationDLEProduction times(extraction to production)Weeks to monthsMonths to yearsHours to d

13、aysLithium recovery rates60-80%(processing)40-60%70-90%+CostsMedium-HighLowLow-MediumCapexUS$23-34,000/tpa LCEUS$26-34,000/tpa LCEOpexUS$3,300-4,900/t LCEUS$2,800-3,600/t LCELithium productSpodumene(5-6%Li2O)Lithium Carbonate(Li2CO3)/Lithium Chloride(LiCl)Lithium Carbonate(Li2CO3)/Lithium Chloride(L

14、iCl)ProcessHeating,cooling,crushing,and roastingStaged atmospheric evaporation,plant processingAdsorption(Ad),Ion Exchange(IX),Solvent Extraction(SX),MembraneFurther processing requirementsYesNo(subject to end use)No(subject to end use)Land area requirementHighHighLowWeather dependanceYesYesNoWater

15、consumptionHighMedium-HighLow-Medium(subject to reinjection availability)Energy ConsumptionHighLow(free solar evaporation)MediumEmissionsHighLowLowBrineVaried on grade/chemical conversionGener alised;IX often alr eady utilised in sor ption and pond pr oceses for impur ity r emoval;Br ine capital int

16、ensity and opex based on GSe modeled scenar ios outlined below.Sour ce:Company data,Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Resear ch27 April 2023 3Goldman SachsGlobal Met als&MiningExhibit 2:Tradit ional process of Brine Ext ract ion vs.DLE,and t iming of each st age Indicative timings;pon

17、d based on Olar oz flowsheet Sour ce:Company data,Goldman Sachs Global Investment Resear ch27 April 2023 4Goldman SachsGlobal Met als&MiningDLE implement ors and t echnology developers Several lithium projects are utilising or in the process of selecting technologies for DLE implementation,while a n

18、umber of large global OEMs and miners(who may also be interested in by product application for extraction of other elements,such as potassium)have backed or have stakes in some technology developers.We outline in the table below 27 global lithium projects that are using or plan to implement DLE,alon

19、g with a further nine advancing third-party technology developers.CompanyProjectCountryDLE Project stageDLE technology providerLithium extraction technology Tech Origin GeothermalResource(Mt LCE)Start dateCapacity(ktpa LCE)Lithium project developers/operatorsEramet/TsingshanCentenario-RatonesArgenti

20、na ConstructionProprietarySorption-10202424+50(P1+P2)LiventFenix(Hombre Muerto)Argentina ProductionProprietarySorptionUSA-12199880(3 expansions)RIORinconArgentina PilotProprietarySorption-12202430Lake Resources Kachi Project Argentina PilotLilac SolutionsIXUSA-4202425AllkemOlaroz enhanced recoveries

21、Argentina StudyTBD(in testing phase)TBDTBD-Tibet Summit ResourcesAngelesArgentina ConstructionSunResinSorptionChina-2202425(P1)Eon MineralsAmanecerArgentina PilotProprietarySorptionArgentina-AlbemarleAtacamaChilePilotProprietary LiET/Third party testingTBDTBD-112023-SQMAtacamaChilePilotProprietary/T

22、hird party testingTBDTBD-682024220-250CleanTech LithiumLaguna VerdeChilePilotSunResinSorptionChina-2202620CleanTech LithiumFransisco BasinChilePilotTBD(in testing phase)TBDTBD-1-Lanke LithiumYiliping LakeChinaProductionSunResinSorptionChina-201720Zangge lithiumChalkhan LakeChinaProductionSunResinSor

23、ptionChina-201820Jintai LithiumMahai LakeChinaProductionSunResinSorptionChina-20197Tibet NationalQinghaiChinaCommissioningSunResinSorptionChina-Yiwei LithiumQinghai Salt LakeChinaConstructionSunResinSorptionChina-Anson ResourcesParadox LithiumUSAPilot/DFSSunResinSorptionChina-Compass MineralsGreat S

24、alt LakeUSAPilotEnergy Source Minerals(ILiAD)SorptionUSA-2202535Berkshire HathawaySalton SeaUSAPilotProprietarySorptionUSAYes-90Energy Source MineralsSalton Sea(Project ATLIS)USAPilotProprietary(ILiAD)SorptionUSAYes-202420Controlled Thermal ResourcesSalton SeaUSAPilotLilac SolutionsIXUSAYes-25Contro

25、lled Thermal Resources?USAOffsite PilotLilac SolutionsIXUSAYes3202425Standard LithiumSmackover(Lanxess Project)USADemonstrationProprietary(LiSTR)IXUSA-3-22American Battery MaterialsLisbon Lithium ProjectUSAPilotTBD(in testing phase)TBDUSA-E3 Metals CorpClearwaterCanadaPilotProprietaryIXCanada-720252

26、0LithiumBankBoardwalkCanadaPre-PEAConductive EnergyIXCanada-6-Vulcan EnergyUpper Rhine ValleyGermany PilotProprietary(VULSORB)SorptionGermanyYes16202448Technology developersSummit Nanotech-Pilot/DemoProprietary(denaLi)SorptionCanada-SunResin-Commercial(growing scale)ProprietarySorptionChina-Internat

27、ional Battery Metals(IBAT)-Demo/CommercialProprietarySorptionUSA-Koch Technology Solutions-Lab/PilotProprietary(Li-Pro)SorptionUSA-Lilac Solutions-Demo/CommercialProprietaryIXUSA-Conductive Energy-Pilot/DemoProprietaryIXCanada-EnergyX-Proprietary(LiTAS)MembraneUSA-Geo40-LabProprietary(GeoSieve)Membr

28、aneNZYes-Solvay-PilotProprietary(CYANEX 936P)SXBelgium-List not exhaustive;Technology developer s listed separ ately wher e not developing own r esour ce;Geother mal categor y for pr oject/tech that is specifically geother mal-technologies may be applicable acr oss r esour ce types;Quoted r esour ce

29、/star t date may apply to whole pr oject r ather than planned expansion.Sour ce:Company data,Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Resear ch27 April 2023 5Goldman SachsGlobal Met als&MiningScenario economics and real world asset benchmarking While we believe there is increasing awareness

30、of the technological implications of DLE around increased recoveries/production and accelerated ramp-up of projects,the economics of its implementation,along with the implementation of the various technologies in other mineral commodity extraction,remain underappreciated,in our view.In this context,

31、we provide a desktop indicative analysis of the possible economics of a DLE project vs.a traditional brine pond under a range of scenarios,informed by existing projects and our sense checks with industry participants,along with a comparison to announced projects.These scenarios assume a hypothetical

32、 brine resource is extracted at the same grade and volume at 25ktpa contained LCE over a 20-yr production life to produce and sell the same quality of lithium carbonate product,both as a DLE(which ramps up 18mths faster vs.traditional ponds though with higher nominal capex/opex)and a traditional eva

33、poration pond project.We expect a DLE project achieves recoveries of 70-90%producing 18-23ktpa LCE(though model a wider 50-100%range covering up and downside risk),while a traditional brine pond achieves recoveries of 40-60%producing 10-15ktpa LCE(again modeling a wider 30-80%range to capture upside

34、 risk of improving recoveries of newer pond projects).We expect plant and processing infrastructure drive a higher upfront capex for a DLE project,which more than offsets the lack of traditional pond infrastructure.Exhibit 4:DLE can increase lit hium recoveries t o 70-90%,from 40-60%for t radit iona

35、l ponds Annual lit hium carbonat e product ion(kt pa LCE)on modeled scenario lit hium recoveries Exhibit 5:Plant and processing infrast ruct ure are likely t he bulk of higher DLE capex Pond vs.DLE project indicat ive capex split for mid-point of scenario modeling(US$mn)40-60%recovery70-90%recovery3

36、0-40%recovery50-60%recovery60-80%recovery90%+recovery051015202530PondDLEEstimate rangePossibleContained in extracted brinektpa LCE35060000500600700800PondDLEWellfields&Brine DistributionEvaporation PondsPlant&ReagentsUtilitiesInfrastructureIndirect CostsTotal other costsUS$mnSour ce:Compa

37、ny data,Goldman Sachs Global Investment Resear chSdV Stage 1&2 technical study(2022)split for pond capex,appor tioned to mid-point of capex scenar io estimates;DLE plant capex taken as balancing item of capital items(as no pond capex)for illustr ative pur poses.Sour ce:Company data,Goldman Sachs Glo

38、bal Investment Resear ch27 April 2023 6Goldman SachsGlobal Met als&MiningThough there remains a range of outcomes subject to capital and opex requirements of a DLE project,ultimately the improvement in the achieved lithium recovery and resulting increase in annual production is the key driver of eco

39、nomic outcomes,in our view,supporting the implementation of DLE over traditional brine ponds.Therefore our scenarios predominantly test input assumptions(capex/opex/price etc)against achieved recovery.The charts below outline the required lithium price of a mid-range DLE project(80%recovery/20ktpa L

40、CE)vs.pond the recovery range(40-60%/10-15ktpa LCE).We see NPV breakeven for a DLE project with a mid-point 80%recovery vs.a traditional pond with a bottom end 40%recovery on our mid case capex estimates(capital intensity US$30,000/tpa LCE),and GSe lithium pricing,requiring an opex unit cost of US$7

41、,500/t.When compared with a pond at the top end of the recovery range at 60%,this opex unit cost requirement for break even would fall to US$4,000/t(though we expect most pond-only projects are unlikely to consistently achieve overall lithium recoveries as high as 60%).Compared to a mid-point 50%rec

42、overy pond,the breakeven opex unit cost would be 90%);Olar oz S1(17.5ktpa)r epor ted 2014 completion capex(intensity of US$13,000/tpa)inflated to compar able r eal$;Fenix initial pr oject r ecover y/capex estimated and inflated to compar able r eal$;Cauchar i-Olar oz capital intensity Stage 1(40ktpa

43、)as of Mar-23,with planning for Stage 2 expansion(at least 20ktpa)continuing to pr ogr ess to align with completion of Stage 1;Atacama(SQM)feeding Antofagasta Car men 2024 plant capacity extension on Mar-23 capex(30ktpa);SQM/ALB DLE pr ojects not shown pending cost updates;Olar oz Stage 2(25ktpa)and

44、 Sal de Vida Stage 1&2(15ktpa&30ktpa)costs based on Allkem 2022 technical r epor ts;Kachi(Lilac tech)estimates based on Lakes 2021 FS at(25ktpa),though updated DFS due mid-2023(50ktpa)following pilot/demo completion.Dotted lines equate base DLE r ecover y r ange at 70-90%to pond scenar ios.Sour ce:C

45、ompany data,Goldman Sachs Global Investment Resear chPr oduction/r ecover y number s as per pr evious Exhibit notes unless noted;SQM shown on 2022 costs and estimated r ecover y;Angeles quoted costs fr om par tner may not be like for like;Centenar io Phase 2 unit costs esimtated on assumption 40%Pha

46、se 1 costs ar e fixed,which incr ease 1.5x on Phase 2,while var iable costs incr ease pr opor tionally to volume;Gr owth pr ojects ar e life of mine(LOM)r eal unit costs,while oper ating assets ar e 2022 r epor ted unit costs;Fenix taken at Woodmac unit cost estimate for 2022,and fir st year of full

47、 pr oduction for expansions;Cauchar i-Olar oz oper ating costs on Oct-20 DFS.Dotted lines equate base DLE r ecover y r ange at 70-90%to pond scenar ios.Sour ce:Company data,Goldman Sachs Global Investment Resear ch27 April 2023 9Goldman SachsGlobal Met als&MiningThe Supply/Demand Implicat ions:New D

48、LE supply from 2025+Much like shale did for oil,Direct Lithium Extraction(DLE)has the potential to significantly increase the supply of lithium from brine projects-although unlike shale,which typically sits toward the top of the oil cost curve,the cost analysis set out above suggests that DLE will w

49、iden,rather than steepen,the lithium brine cost curve with an average project likely sitting in the second or third cost quartile.DLE in contrast to shale also offers lower perceived environmental risk and significant environmental benefits vs.traditional brine ponds,nearly doubling lithium producti

50、on/yield(taking recoveries from 40-60%to 70-90%+)and improving project returns,offering sustainability benefits and ESG credentials for its implementors(land usage from lack of ponds declines 20 x,water usage and metrics improve on potential brine reinjection),while also widening(rather than steepen

51、ing)the lithium cost curve.These benefits may also support improved timelines for community and permitting approval,while enhanced production on higher recoveries could also improve/bring forward government take from projects.While the impact of DLE on market dynamics will be linked to the pace and

52、scale at which it is adopted,as we highlight(Exhibit 3),there are a significant number of resources business and technology providers that have been incentivised to find technological improvements to lithium resource extraction as a result of record lithium prices that are well above the marginal co

53、st of existing and proposed lithium supply(and thus more than offset the upfront R&D costs).Policy changes,such as Chiles recent NLP,may further support an accelerating implementation of DLE technologies.DLE offers a potential game changing technology for lithium supply,and while there may still be

54、key challenges around scalability and water consumption,with the ongoing efforts,DLE could be implemented between 2025-2030 in both Chile and Argentina,in our view.This compares with market skepticism(based on discussions with investors)around commercial development of DLE technology by the end of t

55、he decade.Following on from the project economic analysis above,we set out below an indicative impact to both the LatAm lithium brine cost curve vs.industry estimates,and lithium market supply/demand dynamics vs.the GSe base case.While implementation at this scale may be unlikely on a five-year view

56、,and is not included in our supply/demand base case,the analysis gives an indicative guide as to the potential cost curve and supply/demand impacts of the implementation of DLE.Cost curve Our cost analysis above suggests that DLE will widen,rather than steepen,the LatAm lithium brine cost curve with

57、 an average project likely sitting in the second/third cost quartile,with an estimated opex range of US$2,800-3,600/t.The chart below sets out the potential DLE impact to a five-year forward(2028)LatAm lithium brine industry cost curve(Woodmac),under an indicative only scenario if 30%of LatAm lithiu

58、m brine projects(GSe)implemented DLE in some form and took average extracted brine lithium recoveries from 50%to 80%(mid-point DLE scenario recovery range),with an 18 27 April 2023 10Goldman SachsGlobal Met als&Miningmonth timing benefit on faster ramp up than traditional ponds.We highlight this lev

59、el of accelerated ramp up of DLE-linked projects in five years is unlikely,in our view,with the curve only illustrating the potential cost curve impact from DLE implementation.The charts beneath show the 2022 and industry 2028 cost curves.Exhibit 12:We est imat e t hat DLE implement at ion will wide

60、n,rat her t han st eepen,t he lit hium brine cost curve 2028 Lat Am lit hium brine cost curve wit h impact of DLE addit ions(US$/t LCE FOB;pre-royalt y)05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0000500300350400450500550600650700750800850900Atacama-SQMRincon-RIOTres Quebradas-Zijin Min

61、ing GroupCentenario-Ratones-ErametOlaroz-AKEDLE addition(30%)Atacama-ALBCauchari Olaroz-Minera ExarSal de Vida-AKEHombre Muerto-LiventHombre Muerto North-POSCOCauchari-AKE(acq.Advantage Lithium)Maricunga-Minera Salar BlancoPastos Grandes-LACKachi-Lake ResourcesUS$/t LCEDLE additons to 30%of GSe add

62、110ktDLE estimated opex range US$2,800-3,600/tkt LCEAll volume and costs estimates ar e Woodmac(may differ vs.GSe supply for ecasts)and dont include small scale pr ojects pr oposed or alr eady in pr oduction,Centenar io Phase 2 added at WM Phase 1 costs;DLE indicative r anges on GSe.Indicative scena

63、r io if 30%of LatAm pr ojects(GSe)implemented DLE in some for m and took r ecover ies fr om an aver age 50%extr acted br ine lithium r ecover y to 80%r ecover y(mid-point DLE scenar io r ecover y r ange),with an 18 month timing benefit on faster r amp up than tr aditional ponds.Sour ce:Woodmac,Goldm

64、an Sachs Global Investment Resear chExhibit 13:While only a handful of project s produced in 2022.2022 Lat Am lit hium brine cost curve(US$/t LCE FOB;pre-royalt y)Exhibit 14:.several project s of scale will be in product ion by 2028 2028 Lat Am lit hium brine cost curve(US$/t LCE FOB;pre-royalt y)05

65、001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,00002040608000260Atacama-SQMAtacama-ALBOlaroz-AKEHombre Muerto-LiventUS$/t LCEkt LCE01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000050100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800Atacama-SQMRincon-RIOTres Quebradas-Zijin Mining GroupCentenar

66、io-Ratones-ErametOlaroz-AKEAtacama-ALBCauchari Olaroz-Minera ExarSal de Vida-AKEHombre Muerto-LiventHombre Muerto North-POSCOCauchari-AKE(acq.Advantage Lithium)Maricunga-Minera Salar BlancoPastos Grandes-LACKachi-Lake ResourcesUS$/t LCEGSe base case LatAm 2028 LCE supply 540ktkt LCEIndicative;Combin

67、ation of r epor ted 2022 volumes and costs(appr oximated fr om accounts wher e not specified)Sour ce:Company data,Goldman Sachs Global Investment Resear chAll volume and costs estimates ar e Woodmac(may differ vs.GSe supply for ecasts)and dont include small scale pr ojects pr oposed or alr eady in p

68、r oduction,Centenar io Phase 2 added at WM Phase 1 costs Sour ce:Woodmac,Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Resear ch27 April 2023 11Goldman SachsGlobal Met als&MiningSupply/demand Globally brine makes up nearly two thirds of lithium resources,though only c.40%of production(2022),where

69、 production from the Lithium Triangle(Bolivia,Chile,Argentina)has lagged that from spodumene sources like Australia.While our base case lithium supply forecast has this share of production continuing to decline,the implementation of DLE may increase brines share of output,where new brine projects or

70、 those with expansions planned are likely able to implement components of DLE technology,which could also bring project ramp ups forward 18 months.Policy changes,such as Chiles recent National Lithium Policy(NLP),may further support an accelerating implementation of DLE technologies.The DLE impact t

71、o supply/demand,simplistically,if 20-40%of our base case LatAm brine projects implemented DLE in some form,increasing their recoveries from 50%to 80%(mid-points of above project economic analysis)and accelerating supply by 18 months,this could add 70-140ktpa of LCE from 2028+(GSe LatAm brine supply

72、540kt;Woodmac 800kt),which on GSe supply numbers would increase LatAm brine supply c.35%(average 2026-2030E)and our global raw supply by c.8%.These impacts are in addition to Eramets Centenario Phase 1(ramped up by 2025),and Livents proposed expansions at Fenix,where we note this excludes the impact

73、 of newly economic projects that work with DLE,any DLE supply linked to brine projects in China,or DLE implementation on European/North American geothermal brines,where all may increase the lithium supply impact of DLE.Put another way,DLE implementation could extend the size and duration of lithium

74、market surpluses/reduce deficits vs.our base case(without a pull forward of demand with new supply).Exhibit 15:GSe base case Global raw lit hium supply wit h t he addit ion of 30%of Lat Am brine project s adopt ing DLE Global lit hium raw supply(kt LCE)Exhibit 16:Global lit hium balance under DLE sc

75、enarios Global lit hium supply surplus/(deficit)(kt LCE)05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000202120222023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030EBase case Global raw supplyDLE increasekt LCE(500)(400)(300)(200)(100)00500202120222023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030EGSe Global Balance+10%of brine pr

76、ojects using DLE+30%+50%kt LCESour ce:Goldman Sachs Global Investment Resear chSD balance r eflects r ecently updated demand estimates Sour ce:Goldman Sachs Global Investment Resear ch27 April 2023 12Goldman SachsGlobal Met als&MiningExhibit 17:Brine makes up only c.40%of global lit hium supply(2022

77、)t hough nearly t wo t hirds of global lit hium resources.Global lit hium supply composit ion(kt LCE)Exhibit 18:.where implement at ion of DLE may increase brines share of out put Global lit hium supply composit ion(%)05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000202020212022E2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E

78、BrineSpodumeneOtherkt LCE0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%202020212022E2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030EBrineSpodumeneOtherSour ce:Goldman Sachs Global Investment Resear chSour ce:Goldman Sachs Global Investment Resear chExhibit 19:Wit h brine a significant port ion of China supply.China lit

79、hium supply composit ion(kt LCE)Exhibit 20:.supprt ing development/implement at ion of SunResin and ot her DLE t echnologies China lit hium supply composit ion(%)00500600700800202020212022E2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030EBrineSpodumeneOtherkt LCE0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20

80、2020212022E2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030EBrineSpodumeneOtherSour ce:Goldman Sachs Global Investment Resear chSour ce:Goldman Sachs Global Investment Resear ch27 April 2023 13Goldman SachsGlobal Met als&MiningChiles Nat ional Lit hium Policy Chiles recently announced National Lithium Policy

81、(NLP)outlines the plans for the future implementation of lithium exploration and exploitation policies that are intended to bring Chile back to the forefront of global lithium production,with the new policy being the result of a consultation process with a wide variety of stakeholders nationally and

82、 internationally(including project operators/developers).It has also taken into consideration the objectives of the Chilean State,including its role to participate in the efficient and rapid development of the lithium industry,where the government has outlined Codelco as the vehicle for project part

83、nerships.As recently commented by Lithium Power International,in their view the new policy does not constitute a nationalisation of the lithium industry in Chile,rather its objective,as clarified by the Mining Minister,is to set the conditions and parameters for the country to have a more active inv

84、olvement and higher financial returns in a strategic industry,particularly where those lithium resources are located on concessions already owned by the Chilean State on the Atacama Salar(Chilean output is currently restricted to SQM and Albemarle from Atacama,with their contracts expiring in 2030 a

85、nd 2043 respectively).Essentially the policy sets to move toward a more public-private model,with the government expecting to start conversations with operators this half and hosting talks with local and Indigenous communities in the Atacama salt flat early on in the process.The NLP also seeks to ac

86、celerate the development of new projects in the country,with a push for new projects to implement DLE for water/environmental concerns(SQM has already committed to cutting its brine extraction in half over the course of a decade via its DLE implementation and expansions),further supporting an accele

87、rating implementation of DLE technologies.27 April 2023 14Goldman SachsGlobal Met als&Miningevaporator would remove water and the fertilizer potassium chloride,yielding a concentrated lithium brine.The DLE plant would use water from the mechanical evaporator to strip lithium from the concentrated br

88、ine,and the spent brine would be reinjected.SQM doesnt expect to submit an environmental assessment of its project to Chilean regulators until the second half of 2024.oOther early stage LatAm brine projects that are either in ramp up or with growing resources bases(i.e.Salar de Rincon(Argosy),Hombre

89、 Muerto West(Galan),etc)may also stand to benefit from the possible implementation of a successful technology,with enough third party providers emerging to avoid the need for lengthy development processes with quicker implementation.oDLE projects in China:A number of China projects already utilise D

90、LE in some form(where SunResin technology is being implemented across Qinghai and Tibet projects).oGeothermal projects in Europe and North America are also looking to implement DLE(Upper Rhine Valley(Vulcan Energy),Clearwater(E3 Metals),Salton Sea(various),amongst others),though with generally lower

91、 lithium concentrations and the possibility of geothermal power offering different project economics to those described above.Technology developers:Third party technology providers that are increasinglynadvanced and moving to demo and potentially commercial scale projects over thecoming years(partic

92、ularly those that have successfully tested multiple brinesources)will likely also be well positioned(including Summit Nanotech,Lilac,IBAT,SunResin,and others(Exhibit 3)potentially unlocking future technology licensingrevenue streams,or the ability to acquire and develop their own resource.Theenviron

93、mental push to reinject brine and use DLE may also create a push for moreadvanced geophysical models,which could also support the work pipeline ofservices companies.27 April 2023 15Goldman SachsGlobal Met als&MiningLat Am lit hium resources Exhibit 21:Lat Am lit hium project s Sour ce:Company data,G

94、oldman Sachs Global Investment Resear ch27 April 2023 90%of the lithium present,with this method not requiring an acid wash or other chemicals,adding to its environmental credentials.Other variations may include a recently tested lithium aluminum layered double hydroxide chloride sorbent(LDH),which

95、is still being tested(though researchers consider them promising).Pros:(i)Does not require reagents like ion exchange or solvent extraction,instead water is used to recover the lithium chloride,with soda ash to convert to carbonate(which is more readily available and easier to get to site vs.some ac

96、ids for IX),(ii)Less impacted by brine composition,or by weather conditions,with lower waste generation,(iii)potentially 90%lithium extraction efficiency,(iv)Typically produces high quality lithium chloride/carbonate,and can be suitable for low lithium concentration brines.Cons:(i)Usually requires t

97、emperatures 40 C,(ii)Lower eluate LiCl concentration than IX,and may require further steps to purify product and recycle water,(iii)Some implementation may find it difficult to prevent contamination with the brine,compromised by lower lithium uptake and carry-over of more impurities into the product

98、,(iv)The adsorption equipment can be expensive(potentially high upfront costs)and complicated,with the cost of the adsorbent potentially higher if increasingly tailored.27 April 2023 22Goldman SachsGlobal Met als&MiningIon Exchange(IX)Ion exchange systems separate ionic contaminants from solution th

99、rough a physico chemical process where undesirable ions are replaced by other ions of the same electrical charge.Essentially,the ion-exchange material acts as a sieve with an adjusted porosity that only allows lithium(and hydrogen)ions to pass through,where the ion-sieve can then be washed with an a

100、cidic solution promoting the replacement of lithium ions with hydrogen ions.Lithium recovery by ion exchange can change with a simple adjustment in pH,temperature,or stream composition(though the same goes for other lithium extraction methods),but researchers also believe this method can recover 90%

101、of the lithium present.Pros:(i)Simple process,(ii)High selectivity for lithium and reduced risk of impurity contamination in the product stream,(iii)High capacity and therefore high concentration of Li in the strip solution,and can be suitable for low lithium concentration brines,(iv)Low energy/wate

102、r consumption and unaffected by weather conditions,(v)continuous operation potential.Cons:(i)Potentially high upfront costs,and may require further steps to purify product,(ii)High opex resulting from large amounts of base and acid inputs,and risk around acidsupply to site,(iii)Some IX material have

103、 the potential to degrade in acidic conditions.Exhibit 28:Livent s DLE implement at ion at Fenix support s bot h enhanced recoveries of ponds and DLE-based expansions Project Fenix facilit y first expansion process flow diagram Expansion 1 of 3 shown Sour ce:Company r epor ts27 April 2023 23Goldman

104、SachsGlobal Met als&MiningSolvent Ext ract ion(SX)Solvent-extraction uses an organic solution(containing solvent and extractant)to extract lithium from brines either chemically or physically and transforming it into LiCl(or ions).The organic solution typically comprises of kerosene(or similar materi

105、al)and an extractant,which show very high selectivity toward lithium over sodium and magnesium ions under optimized conditions.Solvent extraction can theoretically achieve any concentration factor up to the saturation limit,where there is also the potential to use solvent extraction as a post-DLE st

106、ep to polish the product stream and produce concentrated lithium solutions with high battery-quality purity.The process is also versatile and can potentially be adapted to produce high-purity lithium hydroxide,rather than lithium carbonate through precipitation with soda ash,with the technological p

107、rocess also being explored in battery recycling.Pros:(i)High concentration of lithium can be produced from the brine with a high recovery rate,and is also unaffected by weather conditions,(ii)Low opex costs,(iii)Lithium solvent extraction is essentially a stand-alone process,whereas the other two DL

108、E processes typically require an additional concentration step,either through smaller solar evaporation ponds,forced(artificial)evaporation,before the purified solution can be converted to the final product.Cons:(i)Potentially less applicable with higher impurity ratios(lower concentrations of Ca an

109、d Mg usually required which may require pre-treatment of brine),(ii)Organic solvents are environmentally challenging,and are potentially more difficult to get to site,(iii)Fire risk with high temperature brines,(iv)Expensive relative to other technologies,potentially larger capex for the first fill

110、and can cause costly equipment corrosion,(v)Theresidual brine that remains after lithium extraction may require post-treatment to removethe leached solvent before it can safely be sent for disposal.27 April 2023 24Goldman SachsGlobal Met als&MiningExhibit 29:Variat ions bet ween salars mean t here i

111、s unlikely a one size fit s all solut ion(t hough solut ions may st ill offer some t ransferabilit y)Comparison of different lit hium brine ext ract ion met hods MethodPrecipitation/EvaporationSolvent extractionAdsorptionIon-exchangeMembrane separationHow does it workThe salt-rich water from the und

112、erground brine deposit is pumped to the surface and direct into evaporation ponds.The precipitation process takes months/years to remove the water content through evaporation,yielding a high lithium concentrationThe lithium is selectively extracted from brine into the organic phase of the solvent du

113、ring the extraction processThe lithium chloride in brine is selectively captured by sorbentThe lithium ion in brine water is selectively captured by ion-exchange sorbents and replace with like-charged ionsUse lithium-selective membrane to separate Li/Mg ions,induced by external driving forces such a

114、s pressure(nanofiltration),electric field(selective electrodialysis)or thermal gradientSchematic illustrationAdvantagesSimple processLow operating costEfficientLow operating costNon-weather dependentHigh recovery rateSimple processEfficientUnaffected by weather conditionsSuitable for low lithium con

115、centrationHigh recovery rateSimple processEfficientUnaffected by weather conditionsSuitable for low lithium concentrationHigh recovery rateEfficientEnvironmental friendlyDisadvantagesTime consumingWeather-dependentRequires additional processing stepsEnvironmental impactCorrosion to equipmentEnvironm

116、ental impactHigh upfront costRequires additional processing stepsHigh upfront costRequires additional processing stepsLimit to brine with low Na/K contentWater-intensive processHigh upfront and operating costVVVClLiClKMgClClMgClClClNaBrineSorbentVVClH+Li+ClKMgClClMgClClClNaBrineSorbentVPumping brine

117、 into evaporation pondVSour ce:Company data,Goldman Sachs Global Investment Resear ch27 April 2023 5Goldman SachsGlobal Met als&MiningDisclosure Appendix Reg AC We,Hugo Nicolaci,Paul Young,Trina Chen,Joy Zhang,Yan Lin,Elise Bailey,Roy Shi and Nick Zheng,CFA,hereby certify that all of the views expre

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