1、May EconomicMonitorIssue:2023 Q2Key takeawaysChinas GDP grew 4.5%year-over-year(yoy)in 2023 Q1,up from 2.9%in Q4 2022 and higher than market expectations.Thebetter-than-expected growth was mainly supported by consumption recovery,export resilience and improving property market.With Covid-19 restrict

2、ions lifted,retail sales saw a solid recovery in Q1 2023,with service consumption enjoying a particularlystrong rebound.Consumer sentiment improved modestly and the share of households indicating more savings dropped slightlyin the latest survey(but still high).Manufacturing and infrastructure inves

3、tments were holding up relatively well,growing 7.0%and 8.8%in Q1 2023,respectively.However,momentum has weakened somewhat recently.Looking ahead,investment in high-end manufacturing and equipmentupgrading will likely continue to see robust growth.The property market is gradually recovering from last

4、 years depressed levels.The year-on-year decline of real estateinvestment narrowed from-10%in 2022 to-5.8%in Q1 2023.Liquidity pressure remains tight with bank loans down 10%inQ1.The property market is expected to continue the sequential recovery in 2H 2023 but weak land purchases and new startswill

5、 likely weigh on the pace of the recovery.Exports in Q1 2023 surprised on the upside,highlighting the resilience of Chinas exports.Despite slowing exports toadvanced economies,Chinas trade with emerging markets continue to rise.Chinas exports to ASEAN reached USD 56.4billion in March 2023,a record h

6、igh.Meanwhile,the structure of Chinas exports is also changing with rising share of advancedmanufacturing products.New energy vehicles(NEVs),solar panels,and lithium battery have become bright spots for Chinasexports.Overall,Chinas economy is recovering since the removal of pandemic-related restrict

7、ions,with demand is gradually improving.However,the recovery is still at an early stage and varies by sector.Improving household and corporate confidence is still thekey to unlock faster economic recovery.We maintain our forecast of 5.7%for Chinas GDP growth in 2023 and expect theeconomy to grow 5.2

8、%in 2024.Q1 2023 GDP growth surprised on the positive side,driven by consumption rebound,export resilience and improving property marketGrowth rate of major economic indicators,%Chinas GDP grew 4.5%year-over-year(yoy)in Q1 2023,up from 2.9%in Q4 2022and beating market expectations.Growth was mostly

9、driven by consumptionrebound(especially services),resilientexports,and a gradual recovery of theproperty market.Investments in high-techmanufacturing and infrastructure wereholding up relatively well due to policysupport.Retail sales growth picked up from 5.0%inJan-Feb to 10.6%in March.Exportssurpri

10、sed the market by growing 0.5%inQ1 2023.Real estate investment fell 5.8%in Q1 2023 but the contraction narrowedfrom the 10%decline last year.Source:Wind,KPMG analysisNote:growth of GDP,industrial production,and income per capita are in real terms,and others are in nominal terms.2017-19 Average2022Q1

11、2022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q1GDP6.6%4.8%0.4%3.9%2.9%4.5%Industrial Production6.2%6.5%0.6%4.8%2.8%3.0%Retail Sales9.0%3.3%-4.6%3.5%-2.5%5.8%Fixed Asset Investment6.2%9.3%4.2%5.5%2.9%5.1%Exports6.1%15.7%12.9%10.1%-6.6%0.5%Imports9.8%10.2%1.7%0.9%-6.5%-7.1%Income per capita6.5%5.1%0.4%3.6%2.0%5.1%Fiscal rev

12、enue5.8%8.6%-28.0%2.2%31.2%0.5%Fiscal expenditure8.2%8.3%3.7%6.7%4.8%6.8%4 2023 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of t

13、he KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.116%53%100%108%63%85%76%103%69%154%405%200%392%140%101%106%125%0%100%200%300%400%500%Passengercar salesMovie boxofficeSubwaypassengers

14、DomesticflightsInternationalflightsPropertysales in 30maajor citiesLand salesin 100 majorcitiesSteel blastfurnaceusedcapacityCement milloperatingratio2023 vs 20192023 vs 2022Most economic activities see solid rebound from last year,but some are still below pre-pandemic levelsEconomic activity in Apr

15、il compared to 2019 and 2022,percent Most economic activities in China were severely affected by the pandemic in 2022 Q2.Although Chinas economic data has been repaired this year,it is still far from the pre-pandemic levels.The pace of recovery has varied across different sectors.Certain consumption

16、 areas such as passenger car sales and domestic travels have been repaired.On production side,indicators such as steel blast fumace used capacity and cement mill operating ratio has fallen back compare to its recovery in March.Capacity utilisation is still weak,and industrial production momentum has

17、 yet to fully recover.Source:Variflight,Wind,KPMG analysis1094%5 2023 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG gl

18、obal organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Service consumption is seeing a faster recovery Growth of retail sales by category,yoy,%With COVID-related travel restrictionslifted,retail sale

19、s saw a significantlyrecovery in Q1 2023,especially in theservices sector.Contact-related consumption includingdining,entertainment and travel grewrapidly in Q1 2023,with tourism revenue,catering revenue and movie box officerevenue increased by 69.5%,13.9%and13.4%respectively.In terms of goods sales

20、 growth,medicine,jewellery,gasoline and apparels showed afaster growth compared to last year.Buthousehold appliances and constructionmaterials continued to slide.Source:Wind,KPMG analysis.Goods sales data are for above-size retail enterprises-40-20020406080TourismMedicineCatering ServicesJewelryMovi

21、e box officeGasolineApparelsFoodTobacco and alcoholCosmeticsSports and recreational goodsHome productsFurnitureBeverageOffice suppliesHousehold appliancesAutomotiveConstrction materialsCommunication equipmentQ1 202320226 2023 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(Chi

22、na)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All righ

23、ts reserved.Households inclination for saving retreated a little bit but remained highSurvey on households sentiment,%As the economy recovers,consumer sentiment improved modestly.According to a survey by the Peoples Bank of China(PBoC),the share of households who are planning to increase consumption

24、 up to 23.2%in Q1 2023.Sentiment among Chinas savers decreased,with 58.0%of households noting that they will saved more,down 3.8 percentage points from Q4 2022,but the share is still relatively high.As the capital market performed well in Q1 2023,18.8%were inclined to make more investment,a 3.3 perc

25、entage points increase.Source:Wind,Peoples Bank of China,KPMG analysis007020020202120222023More savingsMore consumptionMore Investment7 2023 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG

26、,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Liquidity pressure for property developers remained

27、 tight Funding sources of real estate developers in the first quarter each year,RMB trillion In Q1 2023,developers raised fundingtotalled RMB 3.4 trillion,down 9.0%fromthe same period last year.Liquiditypressure for property developers remainedtight,but the decline was narrower thanthat in 2022(26%)

28、.Sales revenue has been still the mainsource of funding for developers,accounting for 56.3%in Q1 2023.Revenues basically rebounded back to thelevel of the same period in 2022 as a resultof improved housing sales.At the sametime,bank loans to developers were down10%in Q1 2023.Driven by the supportive

29、 financing policies,developers issued more than RMB 150billion in bonds domestically in Q1 2023,ayear-on-year increase of more than 20%.Confidence in the offshore bond market isalso gradually recovering.Source:Wind,KPMG analysis0002120222023Domestic loansSelf-raised

30、fundsSales revenueOthers8 2023 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member

31、 firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.New sales and property starts remained weak but improved from last years depressed levelsProperty starts and new home sales,yoy,three-month moving average,%In Q1 2023,the growth rate

32、of property new starts decreased by 19.2%,but the completed property area increased by 14.7%year-on-year,of which residential completed area increased by 16.8%year-on-year.Property sales totalled 300 million square meters in Q1 2023,a 1.8%year-on-year loss,but the pace of decline was slower than lat

33、e 2022.Monthly growth turned positive in March after a 20-months decline.The improvement in property sales was not only due to the release of pent-up demand,but also due to the easing property policies,which lowered the cost of housing purchases.Source:Wind,KPMG analysis-60-40-20020406020

34、0002120222023Property salesProperty starts9 2023 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG g

35、lobal organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.The share of land sales forindustrial purposes increasedLand sales by type in the first quarter each year,%Land supply were delayed in 2023 Q1

36、dueto policy changes by the Ministry of NaturalResources new policy,and landtransactions have decreased year-on-year.Residential land continued to be thedominant transaction type,with a totalshare of 63.7%.The share of industrialland made up 19.5%,an increase of 4.6percentage points from the same pe

37、riod ofprevious year,mainly due to developersincreased interest in regional industrialconstruction.Source:Wind,KPMG analysis0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20002120222023ResidentialIndustrialCommercial and Business FacilitiesOther10 2023 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of

38、China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English co

39、mpany limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Total government revenues dropped in Q1 2023 due to weak tax revenue and government land sales Government revenues,RMB billion Q1 2023 public revenue was RMB 6.2 trillion,up 0.5%year-over-year.In terms of structure,tax revenue declines 1.4%year-over-yea

40、r,while non-tax revenue grew 10.9%year-over-year,including a 32.4%increase in revenue from the use of state-owned assets.Thanks to the delayed land auctions and declined land sales,government-managed fund revenue totalled RMB 1.08 trillion for the first quarter of 2023,a 21.8%decrease from the same

41、period in 2022.The revenue from land sales in Q1 2023 was just RMB 872.8 billion,a 27%decrease from the same period in 2022.Source:Wind,KPMG analysis-2.6%3.3%-13.8%29.3%0.2%-3.6%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%012345678Q1 2018Q1 2019Q1 2020Q1 2021Q1 2022Q1 2023Fiscal revenueGovernment-managed f

42、undTotal growth rate(yoy,%,right axis)11 2023 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of ind

43、ependent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Inflation is trending down with producer prices turning negative since Q4 2022China consumer price index(CPI)and producer price index(PPI),yoy,%Chinas CPI inflation mod

44、erated to 0.7%in March 2023,mainly due to soft food prices and year-over-year decline of oil prices(oil prices surged last year due to the ongoing Ukraine situation).Core CPI,excluding food and energy,edged up to 0.8%in Q1,reflecting a weak but continued recovery.Chinas PPI inflation turned negative

45、 for six consecutive months and declined by 2.5%in March 2023,reflecting the overall weak property market and soft global commodity prices.Looking ahead,we expect Chinas CPI will continue to rise gradually as economic activities recover,while PPI may decline due to weak global demand and a higher ba

46、se in 2022.Source:Wind,KPMG analysis-10-5053200020202120222023CPIPPI12 2023 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)part

47、nership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Bank loans are still the main contributor to total social financingGrowth of total social financing by se

48、ctor,RMB trillionSource:Wind,KPMG analysis About RMB 10.7 trillion in new bank loans originated in Q1 2023,up RMB 2.3 billion from Q1 2022,a share of 74%for new total social financing.To stabilise economic growth,the government will increase its fiscal support this year.It plans to issue RMB 3.8 tri

49、llion local government special bonds(LGSB),including a front-loaded quota over RMB 2 trillion in November 2022.By the end of March 2023,the issuance of LGSB reached RMB 1.83 trillion.Corporate bonds issued in Q1 2023 totaled 848 billion,down RMB 465 million from the same period last year.02468101214

50、162021Q12022Q12023Q1OthersOff-balancesheet financingStocksCorporate bondsGovernmentbondsBank loansTotal13 2023 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)pa

51、rtnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Chinas trade with ASEAN have continued to see fast growth,reflecting strengthened regional collaboratio

52、ns Growth of Chinas exports to major trading partners,yoy,%Despite slowing exports to advancedeconomies,Chinas trade with emergingmarkets continued to rise.Chinas exportsto ASEAN grew 18.6%year-on-year,reaching USD 56.4 billion in March 2023,arecord high.The rise in exports to ASEAN indicatesthat so

53、me downstream segments ofChinas supply chain are shifting,which ispredicted to both lower the risk of tradetension and promote the upgrading ofChinas manufacturing.In addition,Chinas exports to Africa,theMiddle East,Mexico and India see rapidgrowth in Q1 2023.After five months in negative territory,

54、Chinas exports to the EU turned positivein March 2023,with a growth rate of 3.4%.Source:Wind,KPMG analysis-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%----03USEUASEANJapanSouth Korea14 2023 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(Chin

55、a)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All right

56、s reserved.“New Three”products are emerging as new drivers for Chinas exportsContribution to March 2023 export growth by category,percentage points The share of advanced manufacturing in Chinas exports has gradually risen.The exports of solar cells,new energy vehicles and lithium batteries totally g

57、rew 40%in March 2023,with a year-on-year increase of more than USD 5.6 billion,pulling up the overall export growth rate by 2 percentage points.Facilitating policies for green transition,particularly for new energy vehicles,are being actively implemented.We expect that“New Three”products will remain

58、 bright spots in 2023.Source:The General Administration of Customs,KPMG analysis3.71.32.65.20.40.70.914.80246810121416Textile,luggage,toy,furniture,etcSteelOthersOthermechanicalandelectricalproductsSolar cellsNew energyvehiclesLithiumbatteryOverall“New Three”products15 2023 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a People

59、s Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a priv

60、ate English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Foreign investment returned positive in Q1 2023 and outbound investment is trending upChinas foreign direct investment(FDI)and outbound direct investment(ODI),in RMB terms,yoy,%FDI maintained stable and reached$59.7 billion in Q1,with a ye

61、ar-on-year growth rate of 1.1%.Economies such as UK,France,Canada and Germany,expanded their investment in China significantly.FDI in high-tech sector grow up 18%year-on-year,accounting for 38.3%of total FDI,2 percentage points higher than the end of 2022.ODI reached$31.54 billion in Q1,up 17.2%year

62、-over-year,up 10 percentage points from the same period in 2022.Outbound investment in sectors such as wholesale/retail,transportation and manufacturing showed rapid growth.Meanwhile,investment and cooperation with“Belt and Road”economies sawsteady growth.Source:Wind,KPMG analysis-60-40-200204060802

63、0002120222023FDIODI16 2023 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of

64、independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.The RMB exchange rate against the USD is expected to remain relatively stable in 2H 2023USD index and RMB/USD exchange rate Chinas economy rebounded in Q1 2023as the

65、 countrys quarantine measureswere lifted.With accommodative policiesto stabilise economic growth,economicfundamentals are expected to furtherimprove in 2023.The banking crisis in US and Europebrought negative impact on credit andeconomic environment.A slower pace ofFed rate hikes and weaker US domes

66、ticexpectations will drive Treasury yields andthe USD index down,which would narrowthe RMB/USD rate inversion.The expectation of stronger economicgrowth and a trade surplus will support tomaintain the RMB exchange ratesresilience.Source:Wind,KPMG analysis5.65.86.06.26.46.66.87.07.27.4808590951001051

67、8200222023美元指数（1973年3月=100）美元兑人民币即期汇率（右轴）USD index(March 1973=100)RMB/USD exchange rate(right axis)17 2023 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,

68、a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Hong Kongs economy is expected to recover after the re-openingHong Kongs real GDP gro

69、wth rate,yoy,%Source:Wind,KPMG analysis Hong Kong(SAR)s economy improved visibly in Q1 2023,driven by strong recovery of inbound tourism and domestic demand.Real GDP resumed growth of 2.7%after contracting by 4.1%in Q4 2022.Exports declined further in March 2023,though the pace of decline moderated.

70、The labour market continued to improve alongside the continued revival of domestic activities and inbound tourism.Looking ahead,inbound tourism and domestic demand will remain the major drivers of Hong Kongs economic growth this year.On the other hand,slower growth in advanced economies will continu

71、e to weigh on Hong Kongs export performance,but the accelerated economic recovery in the Chinese mainland and the removal of restrictions on cross-border truck movement should alleviate part of the pressure.-15-10-50500920002318 2023 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republ

72、ic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private Engl

73、ish company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.China is still expected to be thelargest contributor to global growth in the next five years2023-2028 World economy growth contribution,%Source:IMF,KPMG analysis.Note:calculation is based on IMFs GDP forecast of each country in nominal USD terms.R

74、ecent tensions in the banking system are increasing the downside risks to the global economy.The IMF made a 0.1 percentage points reduction to its global growth forecast for 2023,lowering it to 2.8%in its latest report.Global inflation has slowed,reflecting a sharp reversal in energy and food prices

75、.Despite this,core inflation has not yet peaked in many countries.Inflation is unlikely to return to target before 2025.Nevertheless,positive growth momentum is expected following the reopening of Chinas economy.Based on our calculations using IMF forecasts,China will contribute 27.6%of global growt

76、h over the next five years,totalling more than the contribution of US and India combined.China will be the global economys largest driver in that period.Contact usResearch Team:Yuan Zeng,CFA;Yanan Zheng;Yihang SunDesign:Zheng ZhuMichael JiangHead of Clients and MarketsKPMG China+86(10)Norbert Meyrin

77、gHead of Multinational Clients KPMG China+86(21)Mark HarrisonPartnerKPMG China+86(21)Miguel MontoyaPartnerKPMG China+86(10)Shigeru InanagaPartnerKPMG China+86(755)Anson BaileyPartnerKPMG China+852 Kevin KangChief EconomistKPMG China+86(10) information contained herein is of a general nature and is n

78、ot intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity.Although we endeavour to provide accurate and timely information,there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future.No one shou

79、ld act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.2023 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,

80、a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisationof independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.The KPMG name and logo are trademarks used under license by the independent member firms of the KPMG global organisation.For a list of KPMG China offices,please scan the QR code or visit our website:https:/