1、 EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)2 EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS Quarterly report(Q1/2023)A report produced for the European Travel Commission by Tourism Economics Brussels,May 2023 ETC Market Intelligence Report EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)3 Copyright 2023 European Trave

2、l Commission EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)All rights reserved.The contents of this report may be quoted,provided the source is given accurately and clearly.Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted for own or internal use only.While we encourage distribution via publicly accessi

3、ble websites,this should be done via a link to ETCs corporate website,referring visitors to the Research/Trends Watch section.The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinions whatsoever on the part of the Executive Unit of the

4、 European Travel Commission.Data sources:This report includes data from the TourMIS database,STR,IATA,Eurocontrol,UNWTO,and Transparent.Economic analysis and forecasts are provided by Tourism Economics and are for interpretation by users according to their needs.Published by the European Travel Comm

5、ission Rue du March aux Herbes,61,1000 Brussels,Belgium Website:www.etc-corporate.org Email: ISSN No:2034-9297 This report was compiled and edited by:Tourism Economics(an Oxford Economics Company)on behalf of the ETC Market Intelligence Group.Cover:Cosy street in Tallinn old town,Estonia.Saiakang st

6、reet in old Tallinn city Image ID:1972610216 Copyright:Arcady EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)4 FOREWORD Europes tourism performance in 2022 has showcased the regions resilience as it continued to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic and persistent global challenges.Despite most of these cha

7、llenges weighing on the disposable income of households,willingness to travel remained strong in 2022,benefitting mostly budget-friendly destinations.While it is encouraging to observe travel normalcy returning,the extent to which travel disruptions in 2022 will affect the sector this year remains t

8、o be seen.Having recovered 82%of pre-pandemic volumes,international travel to Europe will continue to pick up in 2023 but at a slower and steadier pace.As the recovery takes place and we approach the summer peak season,it is fundamental to acknowledge that“business-as-usual”travel would not be the i

9、deal scenario today and in the years to come.To preserve the sector for future generations,tourism businesses,stakeholders,policymakers,and destinations are called on to continue strengthening their efforts to minimise tourisms impact on the environment and local communities.At the same time,travell

10、ers must understand their carbon footprint and their impact on the destinations they visit,while the sector encourages more responsible practices and makes more sustainable travel options available.Ultimately,these approaches will allow travellers to make a positive contribution to the places they v

11、isit and have more meaningful travel experiences.As a force for good,travel and tourism should continue to be used as a tool to foster dialogue among businesses,governments,and local communities under a common goal,to adopt more responsible strategies that offer long-term preservation of the sectors

12、 future to benefit the planet and all who inhabit it.Implementing appropriate and more innovative strategies will not only allow us to address current challenges but also maximise the benefits of sustainable tourism.This edition of European Tourism Trends&Prospects contains a special feature on the

13、impact on tourism of the Russia-Ukraine war more than a year after the Russian invasion.This issue also provides insights on full year 2022 data,including for the first quarter of this year,as well as a detailed analysis of Europes tourism performance,macroeconomic developments,and persistent challe

14、nges Jennifer Iduh Head of Research&Insights European Travel Commission(ETC)EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)5 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.6 1.TOURISM PERFORMANCE SUMMARY 2022.9 2.TOURISM PERFORMANCE SUMMARY 2023.13 3.GLOBAL TOURISM FORECAST SUMMARY.17 4.RECENT INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE.

15、18 AIR TRANSPORT.18 ACCOMMODATION.21 5.SPECIAL FEATURE:A YEAR OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE.23 6.KEY SOURCE MARKET PERFORMANCE.28 7.ORIGIN MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS.39 8.ECONOMIC OUTLOOK.51 APPENDIX 1.61 APPENDIX 2.62 EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EUROPEAN TOURISM PROVED RESILIEN

16、T IN 2022 DESPITE PERSISTENT HEADWINDS European tourism continues to regain lost ground during the pandemic as foreign tourist arrivals now sit 18%below 2019 levels for the full-year 2022.Despite concerns about increasing costs of living,consumers refused to cut back on travel,particularly over the

17、years second half.Inflation peaked in the Eurozone1 and has since been slowing;however,it remains high,adding more pressure on households2.The risks of recession and gas shortages have dissipated,while falling energy prices and stable labour market developments in the EU3 will also sustain European

18、tourism in 2023.The challenges from 2022,however,are expected to spill into 2023 in terms of elevated food and jet fuel prices,higher operating costs for airlines and hospitality establishments and risks and uncertainty around Russias war against Ukraine.European tourism demand has entered 2023 on a

19、 firm footing.Year-to-date data indicates that almost one third of reporting destinations have surpassed 2019 levels of tourist arrivals,while one fourth are just 10%below.In arrival terms,Serbia(32%)and Trkiye(21%)outperformed,benefitting mostly from the influx of Russian travellers taking advantag

20、e of the visa-free regime in both countries.In contrast,the absence of Russian tourists is mostly felt in Finland(-22%)and the Baltic states4.Bulgaria also saw a strong performance(+27%),which,alongside Trkiye,is benefitting from its position as the best-value holiday destination in times of rising

21、travel costs.Foreign Visits Growth to European Destinations 2023 Year-to-Date 1 Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 6.9%in March 2023,down from 8.5%in February 2 The euro area annual inflation rate was 8.5%in February 2023,down from 8.6%in January.3 Euro area unemployment.4 Estonia-17%,Lith

22、uania-34%and Latvia-37%2023 Year-to-date*Date varies Jan-Mar by destinationSource:TourMIS EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)7 DISRUPTIVE MONTHS AHEAD FOR THE EUROPEAN AVIATION INDUSTRY?Data from Eurocontrol indicates that European flight volumes remained down 14.4%in January 2023 compared to

23、 January 2019.This data shows that the recovery in flight volumes has continued to plateau,signalling supply constraints that continue to hold back recovery.European flight activity is expected to follow an upward trend towards pre-pandemic levels in 2023,though not achieving those until 20255.Howev

24、er,many factors are expected to slow the sectors recovery,such as limited capacity,reduced Russian airspace,understaffing,sector bottlenecks or surging demand.According to a report published by Eurocontrol,“2023 is set to be the most challenging year of the last decade”,and adding,“Keeping summer de

25、lays down will be an immense task for all actors,with airspace issues due to the Ukraine war,new aircraft delivered,possible industrial action,system changes and the progressive reopening of Asian markets all asking real questions of the system”.Flight volumes in the European network area STRONG PEN

26、T-UP TRAVEL DEMAND FROM BRITAIN FACES TRANSPORTATION HURDLES Significant pent-up demand post-covid remains for British holidaymakers which should support travel recovery across European destinations.The most recent data from 2023 suggests that two in five reporting countries have surpassed 2019 leve

27、ls of British tourist arrivals.High inflation and soaring living costs in the UK weigh heavily on British households,increasing the appeal of more affordable destinations among price-sensitive travellers.Trkiye leads the ranking in British tourist arrivals,up 69%compared to 2019,helped by the declin

28、ing value of the Turkish lira over major currencies,including sterling.Croatia(64%)and Montenegro(54%)also attracted sizable numbers of British arrivals.According to ETCs latest study on Monitoring Sentiment for Domestic and intra-European Travel,the UK ranks first among top European source markets

29、in terms of travel intention between April and September 2023.This rapid recovery of UK travel demand will continue to pressure Britains airports,ports and railways as they try to meet demand and minimise delays.Over the Easter holidays,Britons have been challenged by travel chaos at UK ports and ai

30、rports brought on by strikes,understaffing,delays and more thorough post-Brexit border controls.Travellers flying out of Heathrow Airport experienced severe delays and cancellations this Easter due to airport security staff strikes.Meanwhile,industry experts predict that summer 2023 could see a 5 Eu

31、rocontrol-100-90-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-10010Total3MMASource EuroControl%change compared to same month 2019 EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)8 similar level of disruption to 2022.During a press conference,Ryanairs Chief Executive,Michael OLeary,stated that,“disruption will probably affect tou

32、rists leaving UK travel hubs due to ongoing strikes and higher traffic”and warns Brits to expect travel chaos in the summer of 2023.British visits and overnights to select destinations As Europes tourism economy continues to recover,and destinations get closer or even surpass 2019 levels of tourist

33、arrivals,it is fundamental that the tourism industry revisits its definition of success.“Today,the relationship between Tourism and Climate Change is unquestionable,as is the need for action to avoid the predicted devastating impacts for people and our planet that a changing climate will incur.The t

34、ourism industry has both a responsibility and an opportunity to protect the resources on which it depends,including the natural environment,wildlife,and cultural heritage that bring travel experiences to life.This requires understanding the challenges we face as an industry,collaboration,and a clear

35、 pathway to achieve global commitments to halve emissions by 2030 and reach Net Zero as soon as possible before 2050.”said Eduardo Santander,Executive Director of the European Travel Commission(ETC).Jennifer Iduh(ETC Executive Unit)With the contribution of the ETC Market Intelligence Committee -50-4

36、0-30-20-50TrkiyeCroatiaMontenegroPortugalSerbiaNorwayEstoniaIcelandLatviaPolandBulgariaSwitzerlandRomaniaSpainAustriaNetherlandsCyprusHungaryMaltaSwedenGermanyLuxembourgSlovakiaSloveniaMonacoArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change relative

37、 to 2019 levelsTrkiye,68.7%(A)Croatia,64.3%(A),60.8%(N)Montenegro,53.8%(A)EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)9 1.TOURISM PERFORMANCE SUMMARY 2022 SUMMARY The European travel and tourism sector experienced a more typical peak summer season in 2022 and was firmly on the road to normalisation,wi

38、th most Covid-restrictions lifted throughout the second half of the year.Some challenges remained,however,stemming from staff shortages across airlines,airports,and hospitality establishments,as well as inflation reaching uncomfortably high levels.Foreign arrivals and overnights continued to improve

39、 in Q4 2022,as pent-up demand drove up travel outside of the typical high season.Out of the reporting countries,on average year-to-date growth for 2022 saw arrivals improve from-25.9%below 2019 levels to-18.4%below,and nights from-18.3%to-16.1%respectively,reflecting a stronger outturn from October

40、onwards.It is likely that households feeling the pinch of inflation were prioritising travel ahead of other discretionary spending and that some of these trips were paid for before prices rose,contributing to a stronger year-end.Foreign visits and overnights to select destinations Out of the reporti

41、ng countries,Eastern European destinations tended to be more skewed below this average for both metrics,possibly an effect of the war in Ukraine resulting in a significant drop in Russian travellers and consumer sentiment about the region as a whole.-45-30-15015SerbiaDenmarkLuxembourgCroatiaGreecePo

42、rtugalIcelandNorwayBelgiumSpainMontenegroNetherlandsSloveniaMonacoSwedenAustriaBulgariaMaltaFranceCyprusSwitzerlandPolandUKItalyHungaryGermanyFinlandRomaniaCzech Rep.EstoniaSlovakiaLithuaniaLatviaArrivalsNights2022 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levelsSerbia,23.2%(N)Germany,-48.9%(N)Source:T

43、ourMis*date varies(Jan-Dec)by destination Foreign tourist arrivals in Europe recovered to 18%below 2019 levels by the end of 2022,despite rising prices and affordability concerns,but it is likely pent-up demand contributed to consumers being less price sensitive on travel purchases than usual.The pe

44、ak summer season seemed to be extended due to strong pent-up demand to travel as arrivals and nights remained strong throughout Q4.The ongoing war in Ukraine has played a role in the slower recovery across various Eastern European destinations in 2022.Demand from long-haul markets,such as those in A

45、sia Pacific,continue to lag behind short-and medium-haul,but saw a boost from the reopening of various borders during 2022.Decembers announcement of China reopening to international tourists should provide a further boost to long-haul travel demand to Europe.EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023

46、)10 Serbia remained an outlier for both foreign nights and arrivals,building on its recovery from Q4 2021.Some of this demand came from India due to Serbias early adoption of more relaxed Covid-19 policies compared to the rest of the region.Further,Serbia provided a means for some Russians to escape

47、 military mobilisation for the war in Ukraine,hence a sharp uptick in Russian demand.In addition,the number of foreign overnights in Denmark picked up strongly in the last few months of 2022 as it ended the year being the second strongest in terms of recovery relative to 2019 at 6.3%above 2019 level

48、s.Trkiye remained a popular destination within Europe,with summer bookings benefiting from a weaker Turkish lira.However,arrivals dropped off slightly in Q4 as the winter season approached.The Dzce earthquake close to Istanbul in November 2022 was likely a contributing factor to this,potentially imp

49、acting travel choices from travellers in near-by destinations.Inflation was a major drag on discretionary spending,more so from the middle of the year.Price rises were exacerbated by Russias invasion of Ukraine in terms of necessities such as food and energy due to supply chains to both countries.In

50、flation looks to have peaked in terms of growth by the end of 2022,but it is now expected that prices will remain higher for longer.The Eurozones Consumer Price Index(CPI)rose by 8.4%in 2022 as a whole after peaking at 10%in Q4 2022.Higher prices continued to impact the tourism sector through elevat

51、ed jet fuel prices and higher operating costs for airlines and hospitality establishments.Headline CPI inflation in the US,UK,and eurozone Overall,the recovery in travel remained resilient throughout 2022 due to strong pent-up demand following the Covid-19 pandemic and supported by excess savings ac

52、cumulated during the same period.Despite the economic outlook becoming gloomier in the latter part of the year,travel was largely shielded from this.A likely reason is that consumer spending preferences became more tilted towards the service sector and experiences as opposed to goods,a reversal of w

53、hat was seen at the height of the pandemic.Even when inflation was gathering pace over the summer,consumers were becoming less price sensitive to travel costs than under typical circumstances,prioritising travel over other spending.The war in Ukraine has had a direct impact on European travel and to

54、urism in 2022 for both leisure and business travel.It continues to limit the pace of recovery in the region as a whole and within this many Eastern European and Baltic states are seeing the effect of reduced Russian tourists.This is accentuated for those countries which have imposed tourist visa res

55、triction on Russia,such as Finland,Latvia and Lithuania.-2024680020202120222023EurozoneUnited KingdomUnited StatesSource:Oxford Economics/Haver AnalyticsAnnual%change EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)11 Long-haul travel to Europe remained a key we

56、akness in the post-pandemic rebound,driven by a delayed response among some Asian Pacific countries in reducing and removing Covid-19 restrictions.However,2022 did see the reopening of a number of countries in the region including Australia,in February 2022 after a prolonged pursuit of zero-Covid;co

57、nsequently,outbound demand saw the most significant recovery in the second and third month of the year as restrictions were dropped.Japan reopened its borders to international visitors and lifted its daily cap on tourists after more than two years on 11 October 2022.On 26 December 2022,China announc

58、ed it was to reopen its borders in the following month.The reopening of large markets in this region had a positive impact on the recovery of international air passenger volumes throughout 2022.Air passenger volumes to Europe,by haul,2020-22 -100%-90%-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%Jan 2020May 202

59、0 Sep 2020Jan 2021May 2021 Sep 2021Jan 2022May 2022 Sep 2022Short-haulLong-haulSource:Tourism Economics/IATA%,relative to the same period in 2019,3mma EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)12 Summary Performance,2022 YTD vs.2019 Country%YTD vs.2019to month%YTD vs.2019to monthAustria-17.8%Jan-Dec

60、-13.1%Jan-DecBelgium-12.2%Jan-Dec-8.9%Jan-DecBulgaria-13.3%Jan-DecCroatia-11.2%Jan-Dec-2.7%Jan-DecCyprus-19.5%Jan-DecCzech Rep.-32.6%Jan-Dec-33.3%Jan-DecDenmark6.3%Jan-DecEstonia-34.9%Jan-DecFinland-35.2%Jan-Dec-29.3%Jan-DecFrance-18.0%Jan-Dec-23.0%Jan-DecGermany-28.7%Jan-Dec-48.9%Jan-DecGreece-12.1

61、%Jan-DecHungary-32.2%Jan-Dec-26.3%Jan-DecIceland-14.6%Jan-Dec-8.0%Jan-DecItaly-24.5%Jan-DecLatvia-41.5%Jan-Dec-45.1%Jan-DecLithuania-40.7%Jan-Dec-36.9%Jan-DecLuxembourg-2.8%Jan-Dec-2.6%Jan-DecMalta-17.6%Jan-Dec-14.9%Jan-DecMonaco-12.2%Jan-Dec-14.8%Jan-DecMontenegro-12.2%Jan-Dec-9.8%Jan-DecNetherland

62、s-20.9%Jan-Dec-11.4%Jan-DecNorway-8.3%Jan-DecPoland-21.7%Jan-Dec-21.0%Jan-DecPortugal-7.2%Jan-Dec-5.4%Jan-DecRomania-37.8%Jan-Dec-31.0%Jan-DecSerbia-4.0%Jan-Dec23.2%Jan-DecSlovakia-35.6%Jan-Dec-39.8%Jan-DecSlovenia-16.3%Jan-Dec-11.4%Jan-DecSpain-14.2%Jan-Dec-9.1%Jan-DecSweden-12.5%Jan-DecSwitzerland

63、-26.2%Jan-Dec-20.6%Jan-DecTrkiye-1.1%Jan-DecUK-24.0%Jan-DecSource:TourMIS(http:/www.tourmis.info)Measures used for nights and arrivals vary by country.Available data as of 27.4.2023International ArrivalsInternational Nights EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)13 2.TOURISM PERFORMANCE SUMMARY 2

64、023 SUMMARY The recovery of international travel in Europe will continue in 2023,although the pace of this recovery may be slightly slower than last year against a challenging backdrop of higher-for-longer inflation and slow economic growth.The balance of risks has slightly improved over the last fe

65、w months,with a clearer upside,as we now do not expect a technical recession in Europe.However,household finances and discretionary spending will remain strained.Long-haul travel,which has continued to be a missing element in the recovery across Europe,is expected to gather momentum over the coming

66、year.Foreign Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations Within reporting destinations,on average,arrivals and nights are-5.6%and-1.9%,down respectively on 2019 levels in 2023 so far.Around a third of all destinations are now reporting a full recovery in arrivals and nights since the global pandemi

67、c hit the industry.The absence of Russian travel has been a factor weighing on markets such as Finland and the Baltic states,and this looks to continue with no end in sight for visa restrictions.But Russian outbound travel has not stopped entirely just the destinations have changed.Data for Q1 shows

68、 that Serbia remains the strongest destination relative to pre-covid norms among reporting countries,as it was for most-45-35-25-15-55152535SerbiaMontenegroBulgariaTrkiyePortugalMaltaCroatiaPolandNetherlandsDenmarkAustriaSloveniaRomaniaNorwaySpainIcelandSwedenGreeceSwitzerlandSlovakiaHungaryCyprusLu

69、xembourgEstoniaMonacoFinlandGermanyLithuaniaLatviaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levelsSerbia,69.4%(N)Montenegro,44.1%(N)No technical recession is expected across Europe for 2023,however higher-for-longer inflation will cont

70、inue to put a strain on household income and discretionary spending,slowing down the rate of recovery in travel.Travel restrictions on Russian tourists brought on by the war in Ukraine continues to redirect travel from this market to Serbia and Trkiye with stronger than average arrivals so far this

71、year,and levels higher than in the same months in 2019.Air traffic across Europe continues to stall in the early months of 2023,as supply continues to lag demand.Inflation will continue to exert price pressures on tourists throughout the region,despite easing energy prices,as pandemic savings are fu

72、rther eroded.Long-haul travel should start to regain market share this year,with notable growth from the US,while an influx of Chinese travellers is not expected immediately following the reopening in January.EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)14 of last year.Some of this was owing to its fav

73、ourable Covid-19 travel policies,and its reopening to travel earlier than elsewhere in the region.But Russian tourists have also played a significant role with large numbers of arrivals to Serbia due to visa-free travel and cultural cohesion between the countries.In addition,Air Serbia has expanded

74、its air routes to a wide range of markets and extended partnerships with overseas airlines such as American Airlines,bolstering their flight capacity in time for the peak summer season.Trkiye has also become one of the top destinations for Russian tourists since the outbreak of the war.Russian arriv

75、als accounted for 13%of total arrivals into Trkiye within the first few months of this year.This trend looks to continue into the peak summer season with more flights scheduled between the two countries.Russian arrivals are not the only factor supporting the recovery in Trkiye,its favourable exchang

76、e rate has made this destination more affordable relative to others across the region at a time when travellers have less disposable income.In Western Europe,the winter/ski season has helped push up the recovery across Austria and Switzerland.Elsewhere more than half of the weakest destinations are

77、in Eastern Europe such as Latvia,Lithuania and Slovakia,a similar trend to what was reported last year.The travel sentiment for this area could still be somewhat affected by the war in Ukraine.European air traffic by country,total flights arriving and departing Flight volumes had started to stall fr

78、om the middle of last year and have continued to contract going into 2023,with volumes falling 14%below 2019 levels in January.This,along with the passenger load factor remaining above trend,suggests that the supply of flights is still below demand(see section 4 for further details).This will contri

79、bute to rising prices and will slow down the recovery across the region until supply catches up.There are some signs that increased capacity will be hitting the market this year,in time for peak summer months,with American Airlines planning to run additional routes to and from the UK and with Luftha

80、nsa purchasing additional aircrafts.Inflation will remain a key headwind for holiday affordability throughout this year,despite inflation looking to have peaked.Prices will continue to rise for tourists because demand for flights is currently ahead of supply,despite carriers adding additional routes

81、 for the summer.But they may rise even further because,as of February,the EU initially approved an update of the blocs carbon pricing rules.This update,aimed at tackling aviation emissions,will be an additional cost taken on by carriers and likely to be passed down on to the consumer.Furthermore,the

82、 war in Ukraine has limited the airspace for the Asia Pacific to Europe routes adding between one and three hours to each journey.This will result in higher demand for fuel and possibly prices.-67-70-68-68-65-53-37-30-31-28-24-22-33-31-24-17-13-13-12-11-12-11-13-12-14-14-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-100Sour

83、ce:Eurocontrol%change vs.2019,no.flights EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)15 European arrivals by source region comparing GTS forecast for Q1 2023 and Q4 2022 The reopening of China in January this year should provide a boost to long-haul travel to Europe in 2023.The benefit will not be imm

84、ediate for a number of reasons,first of all the announcement was unexpected for travel operators and they need time to get flight schedules re-organised.There will also be a backlog of visa applications and passport renewals following the announcement,reducing the scale of the immediate rebound.In a

85、ddition,the start of the year saw Covid-19 cases rise which would have also limited any near-term travel and financially,more households savings in long term accounts rather than accessible short term,which would have delayed more expensive holidays.But travel volumes should start to pick up from th

86、e middle of the year and into 2024,with a full recovery in the Asia Pacific region by 2027.020406080020202242025Europe Mar-23Europe Dec-22Asia Pacific Mar-23Asia Pacific Dec-22Source:Tourism EconomicsVisits,2019=100 EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)16 Summary Performan

87、ce,2023 YTD vs.2019 Country%YTDto month%YTDto monthAustria-1.7%Jan-Feb-0.7%Jan-FebBulgaria26.9%Jan-FebCroatia-12.8%Jan-Mar7.9%Jan-MarCyprus-11.8%Jan-FebDenmark3.5%Jan-FebEstonia-17.4%Jan-Feb-15.6%Jan-FebFinland-21.8%Jan-Feb-21.8%Jan-JanGermany-24.9%Jan-JanGreece-3.7%Jan-Jan-2.6%Jan-JanHungary-20.4%J

88、an-Mar-11.6%Jan-MarIceland-10.4%Jan-Feb-1.6%Jan-FebLatvia-37.2%Jan-Jan-41.7%Jan-JanLithuania-33.6%Jan-Feb-33.6%Jan-FebLuxembourg-14.8%Jan-Feb-17.4%Jan-FebMalta6.2%Jan-Feb9.5%Jan-FebMonaco-18.1%Jan-Mar-19.9%Jan-MarMontenegro16.6%Jan-Jan44.1%Jan-JanNetherlands-10.5%Jan-Feb4.6%Jan-FebNorway-1.1%Jan-Feb

89、Poland5.2%Jan-Jan0.1%Jan-JanPortugal13.0%Jan-Jan10.7%Jan-JanRomania-13.2%Jan-Feb-1.0%Jan-FebSerbia32.3%Jan-Feb69.4%Jan-FebSlovakia-10.0%Jan-Feb-17.6%Jan-FebSlovenia-0.9%Jan-Feb-1.8%Jan-FebSpain-1.3%Jan-Feb0.0%Jan-FebSweden-2.0%Jan-FebSwitzerland-6.2%Jan-Jan-5.7%Jan-JanTrkiye20.8%Jan-FebInternational

90、 NightsInternational ArrivalsSource:TourMIS(http:/www.tourmis.info)(f)denotes forecast provided by memberMeasures used for nights and arrivals vary by country.Available data as of 24.4.2023 EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)17 3.GLOBAL TOURISM FORECAST SUMMARY Tourism Economics global travel

91、 forecasts are shown on an inbound and outbound basis in the following table.These are the results of the Global Travel Service(GTS)model,which is updated in detail three times per year.Forecasts are consistent with Oxford Economics macroeconomic outlook according to estimated relationships between

92、tourism and the wider economy.Full origin-destination country detail is available online to subscribers.GTS Visitor Growth Forecasts,%change year 202242025202242025data/estimate/forecastdefffdefffWorld-72.6%8.6%100.3%25.1%24.7%-71.9%7.0%101.8%25.0%24.8%Americas-68.5%9.2%111.6%1

93、6.1%16.9%-68.6%10.8%116.9%15.4%16.5%North America-68.4%1.8%130.1%16.3%18.2%-67.7%11.2%119.8%16.0%16.6%Caribbean-70.0%89.3%42.4%13.8%11.5%-68.3%42.0%69.9%9.4%18.1%Central&South America-67.9%-10.7%125.1%17.1%16.2%-72.3%5.6%111.0%13.3%15.9%Europe23.8%97.5%8.0%14.1%9.2%19.5%98.9%9.6%14.5%9.6%ETC+219.7%1

94、08.3%7.3%13.0%8.4%16.6%108.4%8.9%12.9%8.4%EU 2713.7%114.9%8.2%13.3%7.7%15.1%112.1%9.6%12.7%8.3%Non-EU70.1%44.3%7.3%17.8%15.6%39.4%49.8%9.5%23.6%15.9%Northern-7.9%195.6%8.3%12.6%7.8%-1.1%197.1%14.5%13.9%9.2%Western-5.0%108.8%5.0%14.4%5.1%16.7%91.8%7.2%11.9%7.3%Southern/Mediterranean58.7%92.4%7.5%9.8%

95、7.9%23.8%116.0%8.4%12.1%7.9%Central/Eastern 34.4%39.1%15.7%28.5%22.0%37.1%49.1%8.9%21.9%14.7%-Central&Baltic13.9%114.8%10.0%17.7%16.3%27.3%75.8%7.2%14.2%9.6%Asia&the Pacific-84.0%-63.7%269.6%151.3%55.1%-83.9%-58.7%226.0%139.8%55.9%North East-88.2%-46.4%42.5%392.8%80.6%-85.8%-55.4%109.8%237.7%72.3%So

96、uth East-81.2%-88.1%1200%109.6%42.3%-82.2%-76.9%670.8%106.0%38.6%South-76.0%-29.9%187.2%45.4%23.7%-73.6%-25.6%152.7%36.5%26.2%Oceania-76.3%-43.3%234.0%53.5%30.5%-82.7%-67.8%527.4%49.1%45.6%Africa-74.4%18.0%78.7%33.5%24.2%-70.7%7.1%87.5%29.6%24.0%Middle East-72.5%15.0%127.4%23.0%19.3%-71.6%52.6%97.2%

97、20.4%18.8%*Inbound is based on the sum of the country overnight tourist arrivals and includes intra-regional flows*Outbound is based on the sum of visits to all destinationsThe geographies of Europe are defined as follows:Northern Europe is Denmark,Finland,Iceland,Ireland,Norway,Sweden,and the UK;We

98、stern Europe is Austria,Belgium,France,Germany,Luxembourg,Netherlands,and Switzerland;Central&Baltic Europe is Bulgaria,Czech Republic,Estonia,Hungary,Latvia,Lithuania,Moldova,Poland,Romania,and Slovakia;ETC+2 is all ETC members plus Sweden,and the United KingdomSource:Tourism Economics based on GTS

99、 as of 27.03.2023Southern/Mediterranean Europe is Albania,Bosnia-Herzegovina,Croatia,Cyprus,Greece,Italy,Malta,Montenegro,North Macedonia,Portugal,Central/Eastern Europe is Armenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Bulgaria,Czech Republic,Estonia,Georgia,Hungary,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Latvia,Lithuania,Moldova,Polan

100、d,Romania,Russian Federation,Slovakia,and Ukraine;Inbound*Outbound*EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)18 4.RECENT INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE AIR TRANSPORT The beginning of 2023 saw an acceleration in global passenger demand recovery.This was helped by the earlier than expected reopening of the Chin

101、ese market.In February 2023,global passenger volumes were 55.5%higher than a year earlier,although this was still 15.1%below pre-pandemic levels.When confined to international travel,global RPKs remained 22.5%below 2019 level in February 2023.In Europe,international RPKs were down 17.3%in February c

102、ompared to the same month in 2019.Improvements in European RPKs have generally continued but have been at a slower pace since the summer of 2022.Furthermore,February saw a relative reversal when compared to January 2023(-15%).However,there remains considerable pent-up demand despite expected macroec

103、onomic headwinds in many European countries.As Eurocontrol data by country and this quarters special feature show,some countries further east in Europe are seeing an impact from the war in Ukraine.In terms of domestic RPKs,Europe has now exceeded levels seen in the pre-pandemic period.In the coming

104、months there is also likely to be some impact from a wave of strikes in France which have created considerable disruption through March and into April.Obviously,the impact will be concentrated in France,but the industrial action will have wider effects on other European markets as well as having a g

105、lobal knock-on effect,thanks to Frances extensive global connectivity.International air passenger growth,Europe The Middle East has overtaken North America as the best performing region in terms of international air passenger recovery,being only 6.2%down on levels in February 2019.The poorest perfor

106、ming region continued to be Asia-Pacific,41.5%lower than the same month in 2019,although with Chinas reopening to international travel,this will improve in the coming months.-100-80-60-40-200Jan-21Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22J

107、ul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Total3mth mavSource:IATA%change on 2019,RPK EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)19 International Monthly Air Passenger Growth Meanwhile data from Eurocontrol show that,compared to January 2019,flight volumes remained down 14.4%in January 2023.This

108、 dataset shows that the recovery in flight volumes has continued to plateau which is indicative of supply constraints hampering continued recovery.These should ease as staffing levels within the industry are restored to pre-pandemic,while reported schedules point to an increase in flight volumes for

109、 the peak summer months.Flight Volumes in European Network Area There remains considerable divergence between European countries in terms of recovery rates.On a three-month moving average basis in terms of flight volumes,no country in Europe is ahead of 2019,but several have moved closer to that ben

110、chmark.However,declines are relatively marginal in Serbia,Croatia,Portugal,and Ireland.Slovenia has seen the strongest improvement when compared with the previous three month moving average period.The weakest performing country is now the Czech Republic(-42.8%).However,Latvia,Germany and Slovakia al

111、l have declines exceeding 30%.Germany has consistently lagged in air travel recovery.This finding is also broadly supported by OAG,which found that the total number of scheduled airline seats from the country totalled 1.85 million during the first week of January;down by 27 per cent on January 2020.

112、AfricaAsia/PacificEuropeLatin AmericaMid.EastN.AmericaWorld-60-50-40-30-20-100Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Source:IATA%change vs.2019,RPK-100-90-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-10010Total3MMASource EuroControl%change compared to same month 2019 EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)20 European air traffic by co

113、untry,total flights arriving and departing Global passenger load factors have continued to increase since the last quarterly report on a twelve-month moving average basis,rising to 80.2%in February.This supports the view that supply is lagging demand and may still be causing some constraint to recov

114、ery.Europe was slightly higher at 81.3%but lagging behind both Latin and North America.Recovery in load factors continues to lag in the Asia-Pacific region but,even here,there has been considerable improvement,rising to 76.7%in February.Monthly passenger load factor Overall,industry confidence for t

115、he remainder of 2023 is upbeat,according to IATAs latest Business Confidence Survey.Passenger demand is expected to continue its strong recovery over the year ahead.Much of the industrys optimism surrounds the reopening of China and the impacts it will have on all global regions.However,some concern

116、s remain around the impact of macroeconomic headwinds,especially continued high inflation in many markets and high fuel prices.The vast majority of operators expect input prices to remain high during 2023 with fewer respondents to the confidence survey expecting prices to moderate significantly.IATA

117、s measure of air connectivity also started 2023 much stronger than it was in early 2022.This index takes into account the economic importance of individual city pairs.Despite the improvement,SerbiaPortugalCroatiaBulgariaSwitzerlandIrelandSpainItalyNorwayRomaniaFranceSloveniaMontenegroLuxembourgUKPol

118、andBelgiumNetherlandsMaltaAustriaDenmarkHungaryCyprusFinlandLithuaniaSwedenEstoniaGreeceSlovakiaGermanyLatviaCzech Rep.Total*-50-40-30-20-1001020latest rolling 3 month average vs.same period 2019pp improvement vs.previous rolling 3 month averageSource:Eurocontrol%change vs.2019,no.flightsAfricaAsia/

119、PacificEuropeLatin America Middle EastN.AmericaWorld00708090Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Source:IATALoad factor,%ASK EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)21 globally,air connectivity is still estimated to be around 17%below its pre-pandemic level with impacts not just on tourism but also

120、on trade and investment.ACCOMMODATION Hotel performance data collected by STR demonstrates a considerable slowing in Europes RevPAR growth,as might be expected given growth last year.RevPAR growth of 50.7%was driven primarily by occupancy growth(29.4%)although there was significant growth in ADR as

121、well(16.4%).All global regions saw increases in occupancy,ADR and RevPAR.However,Asia-Pacific saw the strongest growth on the back of stringent conditions in the first quarter of last year and this expansion can be expected to continue over the coming months.RevPAR in the region increased by 71.2%.I

122、n contrast,both the Americas(23.8%)and the Middle East(16.8%)experienced far more moderate growth in RevPAR.Global hotel performance 007080Asia/PacificAmericasEuropeMiddle East/AfricaOccADR()RevPAR()Source:STRJan-Mar year-to-date,%change year ago EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)

123、22 SHORT-TERM RENTALS In Q1 2023,Transparent short-term rental data story has shown that all top STR supply nations are enjoying increased demand since last year.Austria(32%),Denmark(29%),Poland(22%),and the United Kingdom(20%)sit in the top ten for demand growth.As for booking trends,booked nights

124、in European countries are up 14%over the same point in 2019,with Spain and Italy most positive(32%increase).This demand also looks slightly different.The average percentage of domestic guests in Great Britain,Spain,and France was 61%in January.We see a positive trend towards the end of Q1 as domesti

125、c demand grew to 64%.Last minute demand analysis meanwhile has shown that European short-term rentals receive 43%of all bookings in the final 2 weeks before check in.Beach/lake and ski markets however have the lowest proportion of last-minute bookings at 35%.Looking at supply,the evolution of vacati

126、on rental listings in Europe shows rising inventory surpassing 7 million listings in March.France and Italy may have the highest count of properties but countries excelling in terms of growth are again Poland(53%),Denmark(45%)and the UK(32%).In turn,supply is also evolving.Overall,the share of profe

127、ssionally managed inventory has increased 9%across the global top 25 supply nations since 2021.Of those,the top growers in Europe are Denmark(17%),Germany(16%)and Austria(15%).Croatian stock is a huge operation with 72%professionally managed as of March 2023.These changes impact the industry and als

128、o guests,as professional inventory generates more revenue but marginally worse review scores.Share of professionally managed inventory by country,March 2023 Pivoting focus to 2023 regulation sentiment,European short-term rental property managers are not so decisive between the need for more or fewer

129、 regulations and feel that existing regulations should be better enforced.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%CroatiaAustriaGermanyDenmarkPolandUnited KingdomSwitzerlandSpainPortugalItalyTurkiyeGreeceFranceSource:Transparent EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)23 5.SPECIAL FEATURE:A YEAR OF THE WAR IN U

130、KRAINE SUMMARY A year on from the Russian invasion of Ukraine,the conflict has reached something of a stalemate,with Ukraine receiving support from the West but with Russia expected to attempt a counterattack before weapons arrive.Both economies are reeling from the war,albeit with a less evident im

131、pact on the Russian economy than was anticipated a year ago.As a result of sanctions against Russia,the government has had to step in and spend heavily in order to support economic activity.This,coupled with spending to support the war,means that the fall in GDP has not been as severe as previously

132、expected.However,the depreciating Rouble paired with government cash injections is adding to inflationary pressures.In Ukraine,domestic demand,including leisure travel,is collapsing,and inflation is currently sitting around the 30%mark,with the economic outlook for the year equally bleak.A year on f

133、rom the beginning of the conflict,travel patterns across Europe and beyond have been altered,but not entirely as we anticipated.Changes to the travel outlook for arrivals to Eastern Europe The impact of the conflict is focused across four strands:the countries missing out on Russian visitors due to

134、the EU flight bans;countries benefitting from increased Russian tourists due to the reduced number of destinations open to them;the wider impact across Europe of the perception of the conflict;and finally,the wider impact of flight bans to and across Russian and Ukrainian airspace.050.000100.000150.

135、000200.000250.000300.000350.00020022202320242025Eastern Europe Latest TE ForecastEastern Europe Pre-warEastern Europe Pre-pandemicSource:Tourism Economics000s War continues in Ukraine,with no imminent resolution,millions of displaced people and altered travel patterns across the continent

136、.Eastern European countries are struggling with the perception of being closer to the conflict zone than they are,with Riga,Krakow and Tallinn all reporting softer visitor numbers than anticipated.Within Europe,Russian tourists are favouring Trkiye,Serbia,and Georgia,while Cyprus and Montenegro,who

137、normally rely heavily on the Russian market have diversified their source markets over the summer period.Closure of Ukrainian and Russian airspace has also increased distances and flight times for long-haul travel between Europe and Asia-Pacific,with associated increased fares dragging slightly on t

138、he recovery of this travel pair this year.EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)24 Since the conflict began,unsurprisingly,global connectivity to Russia has fallen.The Middle East,Trkiye,and Serbia have,however,seen an increase in visitors across the same period,due to not imposing flight bans o

139、n Russia.A travel-related class divergence has also been observed within Russia since the beginning of the conflict.From the invasion of Ukraine to December 2022,premium class tickets for outbound Russian travel increased 10 percent on pre-pandemic levels.For the equivalent period,Russian outbound e

140、conomy tickets were down 70%.Within Europe,Trkiye received the most inbound Russian visitors,while outside of Europe,Thailand,the UAE,Egypt,and the Maldives are proving popular destinations for Russian travellers.There appear to be two distinct types of travel emerging too;short-term holidays and lo

141、nger-term relocation,the latter of which is concentrated in the more affluent sections of society.With the outbreak of the conflict,the EU put flight bans to Russia in place,and over time suspended the processing of visas and increased the costs associated with applications,so that possible destinat

142、ions for Russian visitors were significantly reduced.Russia is a key source market for many countries within Europe.Those with the highest anticipated cost of visitor sanctions against Russia were those with the highest Russian market share.In 2019,the countries with the highest Russian market share

143、 were Cyprus(20%of all arrivals were from Russia),Montenegro(18%),Georgia(16%)and Trkiye(12%).Of these destinations,only Cyprus is part of the EU and has explicit bans on Russian visitors,the rest have experienced varying levels of access.Over 9 months following the invasion,Cyprus and Montenegro lo

144、st out the most on Russian visitors,where in both cases Russian visitors comprised of less than 10%of the total visitors share.In contrast,Trkiye maintained a consistent share to pre-pandemic levels,and Georgia saw an increase in pre-pandemic levels.Comparison Russian visitor share to European desti

145、nations pre-and post-invasion Cyprus saw the greatest fall in source market share of Russian visitors due to the movement restrictions on Russian visitors as part of the EU.The loss of this market segment alone resulted in a loss of 600 million in 2022.Ukraine was also an important source market for

146、 Cyprus in normal times,albeit markedly smaller than Russia,with 2%of visits to Cyprus in 2019 being from Ukraine.However,since the invasion total visitor arrivals were 17%below pre-pandemic levels,with the final quarter of 2022 being just 7%below,showing strong recovery ahead of the Eastern Europea

147、n average.The Cypriot government has taken this as an opportunity to both develop a more diverse source market mix,to reduce reliance on Russian visitors and to diversify the tourism products on offer within Cyprus.In an effort to widen Cyprus reputation outside of sun and sand,the Cypriot Deputy Mi

148、nistry of Tourism is promoting colourful villages,such as Vouni and Laneia,which will also help to 31%21%20%18%16%14%13%12%11%17%13%2%9%19%4%12%4%5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%20192023Source:Tourism Economics EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)25 encourage greater geographic dispersion of tourism b

149、eyond coastal hotspots.At the same time,increased air connectivity to Cyprus across Europe has helped substitute the Russian segment of arrivals.Both Ryanair and Wizz Air have increased flight frequency to Germany,Poland,France,and Hungary explaining their increased visitor shares across this period

150、.Further expansion can be expected,with Wizz Air announcing doubling its fleet of aircraft from Larnaca as of mid-December 2023.This bodes well for Cyprus mid-term,though the loss of Russian tourists coincides with increased energy costs and was still felt in the summer season of 2022.In contrasting

151、 fate,Trkiye has seen an influx of Russian visitors.As one of the few destinations in Europe that does not have sanctions in place,and having been a popular destination for Russians pre-pandemic,Turkish destinations are garnering the benefits of a reduced selection of destinations for Russian travel

152、lers.Pre-pandemic,Trkiye was the most popular international destination for Russian travellers,with the same holding in 2022 and so far in 2023.This status is helped by its appeal to the economy and premium travel markets within Russia,as a short-haul destination.Across the Russian mass market,Antal

153、ya was the most popular destination in 2022,with number of flights from Moscow up to nearly double pre-pandemic levels in the final months of last year.This too is reflected in Trkiyes visitor numbers,where arrivals from Russia in December 2022 were 120%above the same month in 2019.Trkiye also becam

154、e a more affordable destination over summer when its currency tanked,losing 20%against the US dollar across the year.This too will likely have played some role in attracting Russian visitors,as well as the ability to effectively purchase citizenship through substantial investment in property.Share o

155、f Russian visitors to key short-haul destinations since the invasion of Ukraine Montenegro has seen a similar decline in the share of Russian visitors as Cyprus,though it has made a remarkable recovery in 2022 with total arrivals just 13%below 2019 levels despite this absence.Montenegro is a member

156、of NATO and Montenegros president has taken a hard-line stance on Russia since the conflict,banning Russian flights into Montenegrin airspace and mirroring EU sanctions.Russia,Belarus,and Ukraine together comprised nearly a quarter of all arrivals in 2019,and though their absence from the market has

157、 been felt,recovery to close to pre-pandemic levels from Serbia,Germany,and France have gone some way to offset this.Georgia,by contrast has remained open to Russian tourists throughout,refusing to put sanctions in place against Russia.Over the 9 months following the invasion,Russian arrivals to Geo

158、rgia have recovered to 17%of pre-pandemic levels,where overall arrivals are at 35%of total.Tensions are fraught within Georgia with much of the population being pro-EU and NATO but the government 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%Mar-21Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22TrkiyeCyprusMontenegroGeorgiaSource:

159、Tourism Economics EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)26 being more lenient towards Russia.High inflation,and the influx of Russian arrivals pushing up rent prices only further exerts this pressure.There are also wider impacts of the conflict in Ukraine on European travel,due to the reduced Ru

160、ssian visits as well as some associated sentiment effects.Some Eastern European countries further from the conflict zone with a small Russian source market share are seeing stilted visitor figures.This has been largely attributed to a perception that certain Eastern European countries are closer to

161、the fighting than they are,as media coverage of refugee arrivals in neighbouring countries has conflated the geography of Eastern Europe in public perception.One could even go as far to say that the concepts of East and West Europe are not helping.This is supported by research published by the Europ

162、ean Travel Commission6 which found that 37%of those interviewed said they would avoid countries bordering Russia and Ukraine,and 7%said they would avoid all of Eastern Europe.Share of Russian visitors to key short-haul destinations since the invasion of Ukraine Krakow,Budapest,and Riga are all citie

163、s reporting visitors showing hesitancy due to the conflict in Ukraine.Tallin has also seen decreased visitor flows,with 50%of cruises scheduled to dock there not doing so,as itineraries for all Baltic cruises have been affected by the removal of St.Petersburg as a destination.Some destinations also

164、noted an unwillingness by visitors to visit countries affected by an influx of Ukrainian refugees,as leisure travel where some people are relocating from war felt insensitive.Some destinations also have reduced accommodation options,as some are currently sheltering refugees.As the conflict draws on,

165、this perception is likely to weaken a little,as flows of refugees slow from highs at the outbreak of the war.However,it is unlikely that this perception will disappear completely and will likely be responsive to events unfolding in Ukraine and the associated news coverage.Finally,airspace closures a

166、cross Ukrainian and Russian airspace have impacted long-haul travel between Europe and Asia for the duration of the conflict,with the flight time increasing the further East one goes;37%of air traffic is now over 8 hours,14%higher than in pre-pandemic times,with routes worst affected being between S

167、outh Korea and Japan to France,Germany,the UK,and Scandinavia.Chinese carriers are also garnering competitive advantage as a result of the conflict,as they are still permitted to fly through Russian airspace,meaning these carriers can offer lower ticket prices and shorter journey times.6 Research ca

168、rried out by ETC involved in-depth interviews with consumers having travelled to or within Europe in 2022.The survey focused on traveller attitudes,behaviour,as well as how recent economic and geopolitical events have impacted travel preferences.Sample size=46-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%20202022

169、42025GTS Mar-23Pre-conflict baselineSource:Tourism Economics%relative to 2019 EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)27 For long-haul travel between Asia-Pacific and Europe,average airfares are up 53%on last year and 20%above pre-pandemic levels.Carriers are benefitting from pent-up demand making

170、 consumers less price-elastic than in pre-pandemic times,as the wish to travel goes some way to covering higher prices.The price of jet fuel is now 30%below levels seen a year ago but will not automatically feed through into lower air fares due to hedged prices across the industry combined with sign

171、ificant debt servicing requirements.The delayed return of Asia-Pacific does not help matters but will take time,as capacity is ramped back up and staff and logistics incur higher costs.EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)28 6.KEY SOURCE MARKET PERFORMANCE Trends discussed in this section in so

172、me cases relate to the period January to March 2023,although actual coverage varies by destination.For most countries,the latest available data point will be earlier than this.Further detailed monthly data for origin and destination,including absolute values,can be obtained from TourMIS(http:/tourmi

173、s.info).SUMMARY KEY INTRA-EUROPEAN SOURCE MARKETS The broad overall trend is for continued recovery in intra-European travel as it edges closer to normalisation.Recovery from key source markets in Q1 relative to 2019 are more balanced than they have been in previous quarters for the most part.The Ne

174、therlands continues to be the most advanced source market in terms of recovery with a more destination countries reporting growth than declines on 2019 levels.However,travel from the US also grew in a majority of countries in early 2023 and it remains the most important long-haul market for recovery

175、.In terms of destinations,Serbia continually ranks as one of the fastest markets to come back from the pandemic across major source markets as the country and main airline continues to develop partnerships with European destinations.There are distinct trends for reporting destinations in the eastern

176、 half of the continent,driven by concerns over the situation in Ukraine.Furthermore,the Russian source market continues to show very marked declines relative to 2019,given its political isolation from the rest of the continent.However,a few countries including Serbia,Trkiye,and Montenegro have taken

177、 advantage of this welcoming an increasing volume of Russian tourists.Relative to the same period in 2019,arrivals across reporting European destinations were an estimated 4.8%lower in 2023 based on the latest year-to-date data for January and February.The Netherlands as a source market continues to

178、 be the most advanced with a broadly even balance of destination countries reporting growth and declines on 2019 levels.Efforts by the Serbian tourism industry to expand their guest mix such as new flight routes and airline partnerships is paying off.This destination continues to perform strongly ac

179、ross most key source markets so far in 2023,with travel volumes in many of these already exceeding pre-pandemic volumes.There are distinctly separate trends for reporting destinations in the eastern half of the continent,driven by concerns over the ongoing war in Ukraine.Visitors from Canada and the

180、 US continue to benefit from a stronger dollar relative to the euro.In the face of a mild recession and less disposable income,Europe remains a good value holiday destination.EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)29 German Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations For German tourism,52%of all

181、 reporting destinations showed growth in arrivals relative to 2019 levels for the first part of this year and with those that have not reported growth,half of these were down just 10%or less relative to 2019.For both metrics,Eastern European countries such as Latvia,Slovakia,Romania,and Hungary cont

182、inued to underperform.There is possibly still some hesitancy among travellers for these destinations given their proximity to Russia and/or Ukraine.Overall,the outcome for Q1 so far has been positive,but the improvement has likely been weighed down by the widespread strikes in February affecting sev

183、en different airports across Germany.Of all reporting destination countries,Serbia,Montenegro,Bulgaria,and most of the Nordic region have reported some of the strongest improvement in tourism from Germany in Q1 so far.The Nordics have likely benefitted from an increasing appetite for winter holidays

184、 by German tourists,although travel to Austria and Switzerland was slightly more subdued.Trkiye which is typically a popular destination has shown a slight improvement despite the earthquake in February as all international airports have remained open.Germanys air travel recovery has lagged some of

185、its neighbours,but a wide range of new routes are being launched in 2023 which should support further demand growth.Amongst these are Icelandic PLAYs new route to Dsseldorf and the connection of Belfast George Best Airport to Frankfurt by Lufthansa.Lufthansa have also placed an order for 22 Airbus a

186、nd Boeing long-haul jets in March,increasing Germanys long-haul travel capacity.-45-35-25-15-551525354555SerbiaMontenegroNorwayBulgariaIcelandFinlandSloveniaTrkiyeNetherlandsCyprusSwedenDenmarkEstoniaCroatiaPortugalAustriaSpainPolandMaltaSwitzerlandLuxembourgMonacoHungarySlovakiaRomaniaLatviaArrival

187、sNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)30 French Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations In terms of demand from France,around 50%of reporting countries saw an increase over Q1 for both arriva

188、ls and nights.In addition to Cyprus(with arrivals at+99%),Croatia and Malta are currently leading the tourism recovery,with arrivals up 75.3%and 34.8%and nights 59%and 50%on 2019 levels respectively.This improvement would likely have been better and more widespread if there had not have been extensi

189、ve strikes by air traffic controllers in France over February,resulting in more than 3,000 flights cancelled.Eastern European markets have continued to improve,but destination countries close to the ongoing war in Ukraine have continued to record the largest falls when compared to 2019 lagging behin

190、d more Western European and Nordic destinations.These include Hungary and Slovakia which saw a decline in French arrivals and nights between 40.3%and 37.5%.While growth may slow due to the above factors,there is also potential for further expansion due to new capacity.Several airlines have announced

191、 new routes from French airports,including to destinations in the UK.Ryanair has announced 62 routes in total including 9 new summer routes covering Bordeaux and Lourdes in France,benefiting both travel to and from the country.Furthermore,young people from Ireland will be able to travel to France on

192、 a single sail and rail ticket from summer 2023.Italian Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations -45-35-25-15-555CyprusCroatiaMaltaFinlandNorwayEstoniaTrkiyeSerbiaIcelandDenmarkSloveniaSpainNetherlandsBulgariaSwedenPortugalSwitzerlandLuxembourgMontenegroLatviaMonacoAustriaRomaniaPolan

193、dGermanySlovakiaHungaryArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Cyprus,99%(A)Croatia,75.3%(A)-55-35-155254565IcelandEstoniaFinlandBulgariaMaltaPortugalSwedenTrkiyeRomaniaSerbiaSpainLatviaCroatiaSwitzerlandPolandAustriaSloveniaNorwayDen

194、markNetherlandsLuxembourgHungaryCyprusSlovakiaGermanyMonacoMontenegroArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change year relative to 2019Iceland,69.4%(N)EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)31 Across all reporting destinations,arrivals from Italy were

195、on average 0.4%up on 2019 and nights 4.5%up across the first few months of this year.Iceland was the destination reporting the greatest increase in both Italian arrivals and nights up 54.2%and 69.4%on 2019 levels respectively.The countrys continued expansion of transatlantic demand for which Iceland

196、 has positioned itself as a stopover destination has made it more of an attractive destination for Italians.The recovery in Finland is consistently strong for both metrics,suggesting Italian visitors are not being put off by its proximity to Russia during the ongoing war in Ukraine.High inflation is

197、 notable in Italy and is making consumers more price conscious than before,which is hampering the recovery of more expensive destinations such as Monaco which arrivals are 30.4%below 2019 levels so far this year.Cheaper destinations such as Bulgaria and Trkiye have been recovering at a stronger pace

198、,with Italian arrivals up by 33.2%and 21.4%on 2019 levels.Both Ryanair and Wizz Air are increasing routes from Italy in 2023.Italy topped the rankings for the number of new routes in 2022 with 410 new routes.This has facilitated improvement in both inbound and outbound travel over the past year for

199、Italy and should support continued recovery and growth.British Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations For arrivals from Britain,Trkiye continues to top the rankings with an increase of 68.7%compared to 2019.Trkiyes success in attracting demand from the UK is likely to be on the basis of price

200、with British travellers hit by particularly high inflation,while weaker sterling relative to the euro(and many other major currencies)continues to affect affordability.The Turkish lira continued to decline in value over major currencies including sterling,providing a real-terms affordability gain.Cr

201、oatia has had a consistently strong start to the year across both metrics,up 64.3%and 60.8%in British arrivals and nights respectively on 2019 levels.Its recent move to the Euro Area should not play a huge factor in terms of affordability as the euro was already widely used.But now being part of the

202、 Schengen area means trips to Croatia by British tourists will now be subject to the 90/180-day rule which means a limit of 90 days in any 180 days whereas it did not before.The poorest performing reporting destinations are not limited to the block of Central and Eastern European countries but also

203、include some relatively close countries such as Austria and the Netherlands.Some of this is likely to have been driven by increased costs concerns and a decline of sterling against the euro.-50-40-30-20-50TrkiyeCroatiaMontenegroPortugalSerbiaNorwayEstoniaIcelandLatviaPolandBulgariaSwitzer

204、landDenmarkFinlandRomaniaSpainAustriaNetherlandsCyprusHungaryMaltaSwedenGermanyLuxembourgSlovakiaSloveniaMonacoArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levelsTrkiye,68.7%(A)Croatia,64.3%(A),60.8%(N)Montenegro,53.8%(A)EUROPEAN TOURISM:

205、TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)32 An upside to this year for British travellers is that the ETIAS visa as of March 2023 has been delayed until 2024 due to concerns about increased airport processing delays from a wide range of European countries.Dutch Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations Compared

206、to last quarter,significantly more reporting countries have registered growth above 2019 levels in both arrivals and nights for 2023 so far.This makes travel demand from the Netherlands still one of the strongest in terms of recovery going into this year.20 out of 25 reporting destinations recorded

207、growth in travel from Netherlands.Like many other European markets,the recovery in Monaco continues to lag behind elsewhere in Europe and even some Eastern European destinations close to the ongoing war in Ukraine.Monaco is one of the more expensive destinations to visit across the region and its sl

208、ow recovery highlights the impact of falling disposable income across households as a result of high inflation.Suggesting destinations that seem more value for money and budget-friendly will do better this year.The impact of the war in Ukraine does not seem to be overly affecting where the Dutch cho

209、ose to travel.Countries which are close to either Russia and Ukraine such as Finland and Slovakia are recovering well whereas the recovery in Latvia and Hungary is less advanced.Many airlines such as Easy Jet,Ryanair are expecting stronger demand over the summer in the Netherlands and as a result ar

210、e expanding their routes.Furthermore,the European Sleeper train service will be launching its first route from Brussels to Berlin via Amsterdam in May which is likely to spur on the trend for flight-free travel across Europe,just in time for the summer peak season.-55-35-155254565CyprusIcelandFinlan

211、dSerbiaNorwaySwedenDenmarkPortugalCroatiaTrkiyePolandAustriaSpainBulgariaLuxembourgSlovakiaSwitzerlandSloveniaEstoniaGermanyRomaniaMaltaHungaryLatviaMonacoMontenegroArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levelsCyprus,95.2%(A)Montene

212、gro,-71.2%(A)EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)33 Russian Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations Most European destination countries continue to report major declines in arrivals from Russia.Only Serbia,Trkiye,and Montenegro have seen growth in arrivals and nights so far in 2023.Serbia

213、 is not an EU member state and has consequently not been obliged to implement EU restrictions on Russian entry.Although not immediately obvious,one source of arrivals to Belgrade from Russia may be Russian citizens wanting to avoid mobilisation.Many choose Serbia because it is one of the few places

214、that still allow Russian entry without a visa and both countries share cultural heritage such as being Slavic and Eastern Orthodox Christian countries.The premium travel market from Russia has been supporting the rise in arrivals to Trkiye since the war began and countries across Europe imposed visa

215、 restrictions.NON-EUROPEAN SOURCE MARKETS US Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations The recovery of US arrivals and overnights continues its upward trajectory going into 2023.So far out of the reporting countries,arrivals are on average 13.4%above 2019 levels and nights even stronger at 18.3%.

216、17 out of 26 European reporting destinations have recorded growth in travel from the US at the start of 2023.-100-80-60-40-200204060SerbiaTrkiyeMontenegroCroatiaBulgariaRomaniaPortugalIcelandSloveniaMonacoCyprusSwitzerlandDenmarkNorwaySlovakiaGermanyAustriaHungaryPolandEstoniaFinlandMaltaLatviaSwede

217、nArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levelsSerbia,311.4%(A),433.5%(N)Turkey,182.8%(A)Montenegro,124%(A),98.2%(N)-40-20020406080100LatviaPolandPortugalTrkiyeMontenegroSerbiaSwedenSpainMonacoFinlandBulgariaDenmarkNorwayEstoniaSwitz

218、erlandCyprusAustriaIcelandMaltaCroatiaSloveniaSlovakiaRomaniaGermanyLuxembourgHungaryArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levelsLatvia,135.5%(A)EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)34 Latvia and Poland are two of the stronges

219、t destinations so far,relative to 2019 levels,and a possible reason for this is that the US has some of the largest diaspora of Latvians and Poles outside of Europe.The data just for January suggests that this improvement could be driven by more family visits and related holidays.However,the outlook

220、 elsewhere in Eastern Europe is less upbeat,with four out of five of the weakest markets being in this region.The recovery in Serbia is underway but there is a lot of upside potential as the year progresses.Air Serbia is set to launch additional routes from Serbia to Chicago in May this year with it

221、s expanded partnership with American airlines.The strong dollar relative to European currencies is an important driver at a time when US consumers are more price conscious due to the economic backdrop but continue to have strong intentions to travel.Trkiye is one of the main beneficiaries of the exc

222、hange rate fluctuations through last year and into 2023,with US arrivals 72.2%above the same period in 2019.Since our last report one US dollar was worth 19 Turkish lira,and as of writing it is holding up well having ranged between 18.7 lira and 19.3 lira since the start of the year as the upward tr

223、end starts to stabilise.Chinese Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations Following Chinas unexpected announcement on December 26 to reopen its borders in January 2023,there has been some improvement across destinations.Montenegro and Serbia are the only two destinations reporting an improvement

224、in one or both metrics so far this year.Arrivals from China to Montenegro are up 44.1%on 2019 levels and nights even higher at 92.7%,whereas arrivals to Serbia are still down,albeit less than elsewhere at-29.5%and nights up 45%.The initial boost in travel reported in these markets can be attributed

225、to visa policies and warm government relations with China.For example,since 2017 Serbia has offered visa-free entry to Chinese passport holders and Montenegro allows entry to holders of a Schengen visa.This suggests that these destinations were the most convenient and friendly to travel to once bord

226、ers reopened given the expected backlog on visas,the related paperwork,and the volume of enquires.These were also relatively small markets for Chinese travel in 2019 with significant scope for growth.Elsewhere recovery continues to lag across both Western and Eastern European destinations as travel

227、slowly resumes.The unexpected announcement caught the airline and travel industry off guard,so Tourism Economics expect it will take some time for systems to reach pre-pandemic capacity once more.-100-80-60-40-20020406080100MontenegroSerbiaMaltaRomaniaLatviaPortugalSpainHungarySloveniaIcelandPolandM

228、onacoTrkiyeEstoniaCroatiaDenmarkSwitzerlandSwedenFinlandGermanySlovakiaNorwayAustriaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)35 Japanese Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations To date,Se

229、rbia is the only reporting destination to see an improvement from the Japanese market on 2019 levels.Nights increased by 92.2%relative to 2019 based on data for January and February.However,arrivals are still down,consistent with all the other destinations.Air Serbia have been proactive in adding ro

230、utes and improving partnerships with other airlines,a factor which has likely made Serbia stand out as a destination for Japanese tourists.Currency shifts have remained unfavourable for outbound travel to Europe,pricing out Japanese travellers and thereby reducing travel demand.Although the yen stre

231、ngthened against the euro in Q1,the movement was very minor with one euro equivalent to 142 yen,compared to just 120 yen in the same period in 2019.The travel recovery has faced an additional set-back due to the closure of Russian air space as a result of the war in Ukraine.Airlines for routes from

232、Europe to Asia have seen an increase in travel time and distance due to this diversion.Routes from Finland to Asia are disproportionately affected with flights to Asia increasing between one and a half and nearly four hours.These diversions will increase fuel usage and costs for airlines which is li

233、kely to have been reflected in the prices for consumers.-100-80-60-40-2002040SerbiaGermanyRomaniaSlovakiaTrkiyeSloveniaIcelandSwedenSwitzerlandPolandSpainDenmarkMonacoHungaryNorwayAustriaFinlandCroatiaPortugalEstoniaMontenegroLatviaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2023

234、year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Serbia,92.2%(N)EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)36 Indian Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations Indian arrivals to reporting destinations continue to fare better than nights,with 41%of total destinations showing an increase in arrivals relative t

235、o 2019 levels,compared to just 18%for nights.Serbia continues to report exceptional growth in arrivals.Momentum facilitated by a loophole in the travel requirements of other countries which allowed vaccinated travellers with a negative Covid-19 test to stay in Serbia visa-free looks to be continuing

236、 into 2023.The recovery in both arrivals to and nights spent in Portugal have had a strong and consistent start to this year up 75.7%and 79.6%respectively relative to 2019,faring better than other comparable Western European markets.Scandinavian destinations have had a weak start to the year with Sw

237、eden,Norway,and Iceland being amongst the destinations with the worst outturns for nights.Canadian Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations As of Q1 so far,around half of reporting destinations(10 in total)have registered an increase in either arrivals or nights from Canada.Out of these,Trkiye r

238、emains a top destination for Canadian tourists,with arrivals up 44.4%relative to 2019,significantly above the average of the reporting destinations as a whole.The strong Canadian dollar relative to the Turkish lira continues to make Trkiye an affordable long-haul destination in Europe.Serbia continu

239、es to lead the recovery in nights from Canada to European destinations,but there is a clear disconnect in the recovery in arrivals which are still below 2019 levels,albeit by just 6.6%.This-80-60-40-20020406080SerbiaPortugalMontenegroCroatiaTrkiyeSpainFinlandSwitzerlandPolandAustriaHungaryMonacoRoma

240、niaSlovakiaDenmarkIcelandGermanyLatviaNorwaySwedenArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Serbia,269.5%(N)Latvia,-93.1%(N)-40-20020406080SerbiaPortugalPolandTrkiyeSpainCyprusMonacoAustriaFinlandSwedenSwitzerlandSloveniaRomaniaCroatiaH

241、ungaryMontenegroIcelandSlovakiaDenmarkGermanyLatviaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Serbia,323.8%(N)Portugal,81.6%(A)Iceland,-61.4%(A)Latvia,-80.8(A)EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)37 suggests there are fewer but long

242、er trips made by Canadians to Serbia,which implies some of these arrivals could be for VFR purposes(visiting friends and relatives).Latvia continues to lag most other destinations,as its border with Russia and Belarus is seemingly generating some hesitancy from tourists when choosing destinations to

243、 visit.Australian Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations Six reporting destination have registered either Australian arrivals or nights to have increased on 2019 levels so far in Q1 2023.Monaco stands out as the strongest performer with nights up 218.9%and arrivals up 79.2%relative to 2019.It

244、is likely that this is being driven by the upmarket/luxury travel segment as Monaco is one of the more expensive destinations in the region and household consumption remains strained in Australia due to high interest rates and inflation.Australian visitors will continue to face higher costs to trave

245、l to Europe as airlines push up prices due to fuel costs and pricing strategies to help recover some pandemic-induced losses,taking advantage of strong pent-up demand from potential tourists.With the exception of Monaco,it is likely destinations that provide value for money will be favoured for more

246、 mass tourism,such as Trkiye which has started this year off on a positive note.-50-40-30-20-5060MonacoSpainSerbiaTrkiyeSwitzerlandAustriaHungaryDenmarkPortugalMontenegroFinlandLatviaNorwayCroatiaSlovakiaGermanySloveniaSwedenIcelandMaltaRomaniaPolandCyprusArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date

247、 varies(Jan-Mar)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Monaco,218.9%(N),79.2%(A)EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)38 Brazilian Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations Half of all reporting destinations have recorded growth in at least one metric in travel from Brazil i

248、n 2023 so far.Serbia is one of the strongest performing markets for Brazilian travellers based on data to February,with arrivals up 54.8%and nights 129.5%against comparable 2019 levels.The recovery in Latvia in terms of arrivals is similarly strong at 58.6%On the other end of the scale,the weakest t

249、hree markets so far are Eastern European destinations.All three destinations also border Ukraine which could be a contributing factor to their underperformance relative to the rest of the region.The recovery in Trkiye continues to underperform,but it is possible that the earthquake in February playe

250、d a role in this.It seems that inflation has not yet peaked for Brazilian households which may price out some of the more expensive destinations in the region as peak summer season arises.Exchange rates are linked to the affordability,but so far,there does not seem to be a contributing factor to the

251、 overall recovery with both euro and non-euro denominated destinations both performing well.-50-30-1010305070SerbiaLatviaSwedenFinlandCroatiaNorwaySwitzerlandIcelandMonacoSloveniaAustriaSpainDenmarkPortugalMontenegroRomaniaTrkiyeGermanyHungarySlovakiaPolandArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Ja

252、n-Mar)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Serbia,129.5%(N)EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)39 7.ORIGIN MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS Based on Tourism Economics Global Travel Service(GTS)model,the following charts and analysis show Europes evolving market position in absolute an

253、d percentage terms for selected source markets.Data in these charts and tables relate to reported arrivals in all destinations as a comparable measure of outbound travel for the calculation of market share.For example,US outbound figures featured in the analysis are larger than reported departures i

254、n national statistics as long-haul trips often involve travel to multiple destinations.In 2014,US data reporting shows 11.9 million departures to Europe while the sum of European arrivals from the US was 23.4 million.Thus,each US trip to Europe involved a visit to two destinations on average.The geo

255、graphies of Europe are defined as follows:Northern Europe is Denmark,Finland,Iceland,Ireland,Norway,Sweden,and the UK;Western Europe is Austria,Belgium,France,Germany,Luxembourg,Netherlands,and Switzerland;Southern/Mediterranean Europe is Albania,Bosnia-Herzegovina,Croatia,Cyprus,North Macedonia,Gre

256、ece,Italy,Malta,Montenegro,Portugal,Serbia,Slovenia,Spain,and Trkiye;Central/Eastern Europe is Armenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Bulgaria,Czech Republic,Estonia,Georgia,Hungary,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Latvia,Lithuania,Moldova,Poland,Romania,Russian Federation,Slovakia,and Ukraine.EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROS

257、PECTS(Q1/2023)40 United States Market Share Summary United States Long Haul*Outbound Travel Europes Share of American Market 010.00020.00030.00040.00050.00060.00070.00080.00090.00020000222023Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern Europe*Long ha

258、ul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s20002420260%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North Ameri

259、caSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)41 Canada Market Share Summary Canada Long Haul*Outbound Travel Europes Share of Canadian Market 02.0004.0006.0008.00010.00012.00014.00016.00018.00020000222023Rest of Long

260、HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s20002420260%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern

261、 Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)42 Mexico Market Share Summary Mexico Long Haul*Outbound Travel Europes Share of Mexican Market 05001.0001.5002.0002.5003.00

262、03.5004.00020000222023Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s20002420260%5%10%15%20%25%30%

263、35%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)43 Argentina Market Share Summary Argentina Long Haul*Outbound

264、 Travel Europes Share of Argentine Market 05001.0001.5002.0002.5003.0003.5004.0004.50020000222023Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AmericaSource:Tour

265、ism EconomicsVisits,000s20002420260%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AmericaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS

266、&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)44 Brazil Market Share Summary Brazil Long Haul*Outbound Travel Europes Share of Brazilian Market 01.0002.0003.0004.0005.0006.0007.0008.0009.00010.00020000222023Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Lon

267、g haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AmericaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s20002420260%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South Amer

268、icaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)45 India Market Share Summary India Long Haul*Outbound Travel Europes Share of Indian Market 05.00010.00015.00020.00025.00020000222023Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern Euro

269、peSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AsiaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s20002420260%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tou

270、rist arrivals to destinations outside South AsiaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)46 China Market Share Summary China Long Haul*Outbound Travel Europes Share of Chinese Market 010.00020.00030.00040.00050.00060.000200019

271、2020202120222023Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Northeast AsiaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s20002420260%5%10%15%20%25%30%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern

272、EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Northeast AsiaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)47 Japan Market Share Summary Japan Long Haul*Outbound Travel Europes Share of Japanese Market 02.0004

273、.0006.0008.00010.00012.00014.00016.00018.00020000222023Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Northeast AsiaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s200182

274、0202022202420260%5%10%15%20%25%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Northeast AsiaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)48 Australia Market Share Summary

275、 Australia Long Haul*Outbound Travel Europes Share of Australian Market 02.0004.0006.0008.00010.00012.00014.00016.00018.00020.00020000222023Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to de

276、stinations outside OceaniaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s20002420260%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside OceaniaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*marke

277、t EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)49 Russia Market Share Summary Russia Long Haul*Outbound Travel Europes Share of Russian Market 05.00010.00015.00020.00025.00030.00035.00040.00045.00020000222023Rest of WorldCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern Euro

278、peNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to all destinations Source:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s20002420260%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to all destinations Source:To

279、urism Economics%share of long haul*market EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)50 United Arab Emirates Market Share Summary United Arab Emirates Long Haul*Outbound Travel Europes Share of Emirati Market 05001.0001.5002.0002.5003.00020000222023Rest of Long HaulCe

280、ntral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Middle EastSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s20002420260%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Lon

281、g haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Middle East Source:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)51 8.ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Assessing recent tourism data and industry performance is a useful way of directly monitoring the key trends for t

282、ravel demand across Europe.This can be complemented by looking at key trends and relationships in macroeconomic performance in Europes key source markets,which can provide further insight into likely tourism developments throughout the year.The linkages between macroeconomics and tourism performance

283、 can be very informative.For example,strong GDP or consumer spending growth is an indication of rising prosperity with people more likely to travel abroad.It is also an indication of rising business activity and therefore stronger business travel.Movements in exchange rates against the euro can be e

284、qually important as it can influence choice of destination.For example,if the euro appreciated(gained value)against the US dollar,the Eurozone would become a more expensive destination and therefore potentially less attractive for US visitors.Conversely,depreciation(lost value)of the euro against th

285、e US dollar would make the Eurozone a relatively cheaper destination and therefore more attractive to US travellers.Disclaimer:the opinions expressed in the forthcoming section Economic Outlook are those of Oxford Economics(“we,us,our”).They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of ETC or

286、its members.OVERVIEW Global economic momentum appeared to soften in Q4 on an annual basis,a trend apparent across key economies including the US,eurozone,and China.The stronger start to this year has mechanically raised our calendar year 2023 GDP growth forecast,but we expect GDP growth on a quarter

287、-on-quarter basis to ease from here for a few reasons.Chinas Q1s strength is likely to prove short-lived.In fact,the more front-loaded recovery in activity following the easing of pandemic restrictions likely indicates growth will be more,rather than less,subdued over the remainder of this year.Wher

288、eas in the advanced economies,the lagged effects of ongoing monetary policy tightening by the main central banks will limit growth over the remainder of 2023 and in early 2024.Inflation is still much higher than most central banks targets,leading us to raise our US and eurozone CPI inflation forecas

289、ts.We expect policymakers will continue to rely on their financial stability toolkits to deal with any problems in the banking sector.The overall picture for Europe in the short-term has improved as recent data suggests that the economy remained resilient in Q1,pointing to modest GDP growth that wil

290、l likely be sustained in Q2.However,the overall picture for the eurozone is one in which activity in the euro area economy continues to be subdued.Moreover,we remain cautious about the outlook for the rest of this year as headwinds such as monetary tightening will linger in H2 and at the start of 20

291、24.In the US,Q1 data show the economy began this year on a strong note,though most of the growth occurred in January,which may have been flattered by seasonal adjustment issues and favourable weather.The significant inventory build recently lends downside risk to our forecast,as does the drag from t

292、ighter lending standards as a result of the recent stress in the banking system.The economic outlook in Asia is following a different path to that of the US and Europe,where the focus is largely on rebuilding growth following economic reopening across the region.In China,the ongoing recovery in mobi

293、lity and spending data towards pre-pandemic levels,as well as policymakers pro-growth policy pivots,are reasons to be positive about the outlook this year.We expect the EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)52 recovery in consumption to persist,driven by pent-up demand and now a greater reopenin

294、g boost frontloaded onto 2023 as opposed to 2024.The ongoing resilience of recent economic data has prompted us to raise our world GDP growth forecast for 2023 by 0.1ppt to 1.9%.However,we have lowered our growth forecast for 2024 to 2.2%because we believe recent events in the banking sector will li

295、kely prompt further tightening of banks credit conditions.However,we assume the recent banking struggles will not morph into a full-blown financial crisis.Summary of economic outlook,%change*EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)53 EUROZONE The overall picture for the eurozone remains one in whi

296、ch the euro area economy continues to be weak,with our outlook subject to downside risk.The most recent estimate of eurozone Q4 GDP was revised downward,and the economy is now expected have stalled.The growth composition in Q4 was extremely weak.Domestic demand was restrained,and the main support fo

297、r the economy came from net exports,but only because of the drop in imports.Recent sentiment indicators remain mostly positive and indicate the economy is in a better position than it was a few months ago.But we have seen divergences over the past few weeks.For instance,while the PMIs increased shar

298、ply,particularly for the southern European economies,the Economic Sentiment Indicator fell,ending three straight months of gains.However,hard data remains less positive.Industrial activity in the eurozone is mixed,although the substantial increase in Germany resulted in a positive reading for the eu

299、rozone.Retail sales posted only a small 0.3%m/m expansion in January,far from offsetting the 1.7%m/m drop in December 2022.This confirms the weak momentum in eurozone consumer spending at the start of 2023,contrary to the sustained pickup in consumer confidence.Overall,we believe eurozone economic g

300、rowth will remain broadly flat in Q1 this year.Moreover,we are cautious about the outlook for the rest of 2023 as headwinds such as weaker consumer spending,higher-for-longer inflation,tighter monetary policy and weaker external demand will linger through to the second half of this year.Economic per

301、formance in key eurozone economies,real GDP -10-8-6-4-202468200222025GermanyFranceItalySource:Oxford Economics%change year ago EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)54 UNITED KINGDOM In January,GDP rose by 0.3%on the month,regaining just over half of the ground lost in December when o

302、utput fell by 0.5%.Widespread industrial action continues to cause significant disruption to activity,as well as making it difficult to gauge the underlying strength of the economy.Since then,the CIPS/S&P Global surveys reported a strong rebound in activity in February,with the composite PMI rising

303、above the 50 no change mark for the first time in six months.Some sectors not covered by the S&P Global/CIPS surveys,most notably retail,are still somewhat weaker,there is a growing sense that the economy has stabilised.As a result,we expect GDP to remain broadly flat in Q1.Several of the sectors af

304、fected by strikes appear to be close to settling their industrial disputes,so this drag should begin to fade over the next few months.But Q2 will have an extra bank holiday to celebrate the Kings coronation and recent experience suggests this will exert a significant drag on output in several sector

305、s and will likely to cause a small quarterly fall in GDP in Q2.Still,the outlook for H2 2023 has brightened.Wholesale gas prices have continued to decrease,so we expect household energy bills to fall from July.Also,the Budget announced a significant loosening of fiscal policy,however this only mitig

306、ates the impact of measures already announced.Factoring in earlier announcements,there will still be a significant tightening of fiscal policy over the next five years.The risks to the forecast have become more skewed to the downside.The recent failures of Silvergate Capital and Silicon Valley Bank

307、in the US have highlighted the risk that financial conditions could tighten severely,which would damage growth.But based on what we know so far,we think wider liquidity events that could trigger steeper falls in equity markets and tighter credit conditions are unlikely.United Kingdom economic outloo

308、k -15-10-5056201920222025Exchange rate,period average(euro per pound)GDP,real,LCUConsumption,private,real,LCUSource:Oxford Economics%change year ago EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)55 UNITED STATES Early 2023 data signal buoyant Q1 GDP growth as demand continues to hold up,labou

309、r market remains strong as well as indicators suggesting that Feds rate hikes have not significantly slowed the expansion.This has led us to push back the start of an anticipated mild recession to Q3.The February CPI report shows that inflation remains uncomfortably high and while we expect it to gr

310、adually cool,it is likely to remain at this level for the coming months.However,consumers are still willing to spend in this backdrop,with personal income and spending data for the start of this year stronger than expected.Nominal personal spending rose 1.8%in January,led by a jump in goods outlays

311、driven by stronger spending on motor vehicles.Real consumer spending rose a robust 1.1%,a sign that Q1 started on a strong note.A rise in disposable income boosted spending and the personal savings rate,which rose to 4.7%the highest rate in a year.Upward revisions to the savings rate last year mean

312、households in aggregate have a larger excess savings cushion than previously estimated.While it may take time for spending to soften,we anticipate that cooling job and wage growth will drag down consumers willingness to spend.Excess savings will provide a fillip to growth,but only in the near term,a

313、s most households will soon deplete their buffers.We expect the Fed to continue raising interest rates despite turmoil in the banking sector.The failure of two US banks caught financial markets by surprise but we believe the macroeconomic implications are minor.After a forecast 25bps rate increase i

314、n March,we anticipate two similar-sized hikes by the Fed in May and June.United States economic outlook -20-15-10-50501920222025GDP,real,LCUUnemployment rateExchange rate,period average,per euroSource:Oxford Economics*Unemployment rate is absolute%change year ago*EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&P

315、ROSPECTS(Q1/2023)56 JAPAN We have cut our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Japan by 0.1ppt to 0.6%on the year,reflecting a downward revision to Q4 2022 growth.We believe that continued pent-up demand and easing supply chain disruptions will support the economy going forward.But we expect the recovery to

316、 pause in the coming quarters due to the worse external environment Export momentum has continued to weaken,although some improvements in auto shipping are evident.Looking ahead,we think export momentum will remain sluggish in the coming quarters as the slowing global economy limits demand.Meanwhile

317、,consumer spending improved in January,with the consumption activity index up 1.2%on the month as cars allocated to dealers increased.Looking ahead,we expect the consumption recovery to continue to be supported by pent-up demand,as restrictions on economic activities were largely eliminated in March

318、 last year.Recoveries in inbound tourism from Asia will also boost the domestic sales activities ahead.Japanese banks share prices have been hit by the recent banking turmoil.The impact on the money market is so far limited amid a backstop from dollar swaps between the Fed and the BoJ.The yen gained

319、 against the US dollar earlier this month amid the banking turmoil and the drop in US bond yields.However,we think the yen will stay weak in 2023 as we still believe the Fed will continue to rate hikes,implying a further decline in the US/Japanese yield spread is unlikely.Japan economic outlook -15-

320、10-50500222025GDP,real,LCUUnemployment rateExchange rate,period average,per euroSource:Oxford Economics*Unemployment rate is absolute%change year ago*EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)57 EMERGING MARKETS Our 2023 GDP growth forecast for emerging markets(EMs)is unchanged

321、 at 3.2%.We continue to see most economies,other than China,slowing markedly this year,as weak external demand weighs on export performance and high inflation limits consumer spending.Moreover,sticky inflation and a hawkish policy tilt globally imply EM monetary policies may remain restrictive for l

322、onger.Our 2023 GDP growth forecast of 4.5%for China remains below the governments target of 5%.High-frequency data show activity may have rebounded faster than we expected at the start of this year,but we expect the boost from economic reopening to gradually fade.Much of EM Europe and Latin America

323、performed poorly in Q4 and will stagnate this year.But high-frequency data,including PMI and sentiment surveys,suggest some economies may be turning a corner.Russia and Trkiye ended 2022 stronger than we had expected,triggering upgrades to our 2023 growth forecasts.By contrast,we now see weaker expa

324、nsions in both Egypt and South Africa.The inflation picture is mixed.Food prices are pushing up inflation rates across Asia,following a decline at end-2022,and we are seeing further signs of disinflation elsewhere.But with core inflation still high and pressure from services continuing,we have raise

325、d our aggregate 2023 EM inflation forecast again to 7.9%.Sticky inflation and the prospect of both the Fed and the ECB raising interest rates to higher levels than we previously anticipated may push some central banks to continue tightening,particularly if exchange rates come under more pressure.Tha

326、t said,with inflation rates expected to fall more meaningfully in H2,we continue to believe some banks in Central Europe and LatAm will be able to cut rates later this year.Economic growth in select Emerging Markets,GDP real NON-EUROPEAN INFLATION OUTLOOK 202242025-4-20246810ChinaIndiaRus

327、siaBrazilSource:Oxford Economics%change year EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)58 In the US,inflation stayed elevated in February,but there are signs it is moderating.The headline PCE deflator increased 0.3%m/m last month following a 0.6%gain in January.The Feds preferred measure of inflatio

328、n “supercore”inflation(core services inflation excluding housing)climbed 0.3%,leaving it steady at 4.6%y/y,well above its pre-pandemic trend.Within this,the rise in food prices have started to slow,which can be attributed to recent declines in diesel prices.In Canada,Headline CPI inflation dropped 0

329、.7ppts to 5.2%on the year in February,the sharpest monthly decline in inflation since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in April 2020.Another leg down in gasoline prices along with a deceleration in food and shelter inflation helped push headline inflation down for the fourth consecutive month.In c

330、ontrast,Brazil CPI data for March is showing a clear deceleration trend in prices,with the annual rate falling to 4.6%from 5.6%in February.The inflationary shock of Bolsonaros fuel tax exemptions is likely to be less than expected,providing an upside to inflation.In Asia Pacific,recent data for Chin

331、a shows that inflation fell to 1%on the year in February,down from 2.1%in January on the back of further oil price declines and fading seasonal demand for travel services.The country also remains fairly sheltered from high energy prices stemming from the war in Ukraine due to its self-sufficiency in

332、 coal and food output.Price pressures in India remain both elevated and broad-based.Annual CPI rose to 6.4%in February and excluding food and all energy,remained above the RBIs upper tolerance limit at 6.3%,suggesting another rate of hikes by the central bank.But in Japan,CPI inflation eased in Febr

333、uary,when the electricity bill subsidy started.On the other hand,core-core CPI(excluding energy and fresh foods)increased,largely led by goods prices.However,import costs have been trending downward,meaning we expect CPI inflation to decline in H2.CPI growth,2023 EUROPEAN INFLATION OUTLOOK Eurozone inflation fell to 6.9%on the year in March from 8.5%in February.The decrease reflects lower energy i