1、Insuring AI:How Insurance Can Support AI DevelopmentCAS-Seminar on ReinsuranceJascha ProsiegelMunich Re1.Introduction2.Artificial Intelligence and Risks3.Insurance of AI 4.OutlookIntroductionJascha ProsiegelUnderwriting lead for AI risks in North AmericaMember of the German Association of Actuaries

2、DAVBased in San Francisco,CAThe AI Risks teamUnderwrites AI model performance since 2018Insures corporates and tech startups across industries Intelligence$200bnGlobal Annual Corporate Investment into AI1Statistical model trained on datato perform a specific taskcheaper,faster and better1)Stanford H

3、AI,2023 State of AI Report,2)MIT Technology Review,CIO survey on AI adoptionAI being a critical part 2022 vs 202510%10%20%30%40%50%ITSCM&ManufacturingHRProduct DevelopmentFinanceMarketing&AdvertisingSalesAI being a critical part 2022 vs 202520%10%20%30%40%50%ITSCM&ManufacturingHRProduct DevelopmentF

4、inanceMarketing&AdvertisingSalesAI Risks“the laws of statistics ensure that even if AI does the right thing nearly all the time there will be instances where it fails”John Villasenor,Brookings InstituteDiscriminationLiabilitiesUnderperformanceUnknown loss scenarios“silent AI”&unknown,increasing down

5、sideAI Performance Risk-Covariate Shift and Concept DriftAssumption:,=|Change in the distribution of input data between training and productionStatistical properties of the target variable change over time in unforeseen waysCovariate Shift Concept Drift|Distribution of covariate XYears in production

6、Target variable Y for given XTraining vs Insurance ProductsInsure-backed Performance GuaranteesAn AI provider adds a targeted performance guarantee to their product.The provider is insured against penalty payouts.Goal Trust&Sales CloudCoverOwn-Damage Performance InsuranceA corporate automates tasks

7、and services via AI and is insured against specific underperformance scenarios.Goal Protected Automation Loan ProviderAttractiveness for InsurersAI Model InsuranceA portfolio of predictions with a statistical error rate with accumulation and diversification potential.Insuring the risk of errors abov

8、e expectation.ReinsuranceA portfolio of policies with loss frequencies/severity with accumulation and diversification potential.Insuring the risk of loss ratio above expectation.FUGURisk Assessment:Areas and Data Analysis1.Process AssessmentBusiness problemData&feature engineeringTrainingMonitoring&

9、updating2.Performance Data ReviewStress test resultsVariation over timeVariation over subsetsBusiness outlookOutlookAI becomes the new normal and takes over more critical tasksEven the best AI will make errors.Losses will drive insurance demand.New regulations bring environmental certainty and new r

10、equirements.DisclaimerMnchener Rckversicherungs-Gesellschaft(“Munich Reinsurance Company”)is a reinsurance company organizedunder the laws of Germany.In some countries,including in the United States,Munich Reinsurance Company holdsthe status of an unauthorized reinsurer.Policies are underwritten by Munich Reinsurance Company or its affiliatedinsurance and reinsurance subsidiaries.Certain coverages are not available in all jurisdictions.Case Studies and more material: