1、 while (foo = getNext(bar) flterThis = false; if (condition1) doSomething(); flterThis = true if (condition2) doSomethingElse(); flterThis = glob(); if (! flterThis) process(foo); Named tokens: 20 Symbolic tokens: 5 (!, =, etc.) Brackets and parenths: 24 Tech Trends 2020 Belgian Edition Introduction

2、|3 Executive summary|5 Macro technology forces|9 Ethical technology and trust|25 Finance and the future of IT|43 Digital twins: Bridging the physical and digital|59 Human experience platforms|79 Architecture awakens|95 Horizon next: A future look at the trends|111 Authors and acknowledgments |124 wh

3、ile (foo = getNext(bar) flterThis = false; if (condition1) doSomething(); flterThis = true if (condition2) doSomethingElse(); flterThis = glob(); if (! flterThis) process(foo); Named tokens: 20 Symbolic tokens: 5 (!, =, etc.) Brackets and parenths: 24 if (condition2) if (condition2) doSomethingElse(

4、); doSomethingElse(); doSomethingElse(); doSomethingElse(); doSomethingElse(); flterThis = glob(); flterThis = glob(); flterThis = glob(); flterThis = glob(); flterThis = glob(); flterThis = glob(); flterThis = glob(); if (condition2) flterThis = glob(); Contents Trending the trends: Eleven years of

5、 research CLOUD material scientists can use qubits to simulate atoms in ways that are impracticable on classical computers; and fascinating possibilities exist in many other areas including communications, logistics, security and cryptography, energy, and more. Emerging forces on the horizon As the

6、three disruptor forces are gaining ground and are poised to make signifi cant business contributions in the coming decade, three technology developments and innovationsthe horizon nextare waiting in the wings. We will begin to feel their impact toward the end of the 2020s. Ambient experience Exponen

7、tial intelligence Macro technology forces 14 JOAQUIN DUATO VICE CHAIRMAN OF THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE, JOHNSON applying them in concert can help businesses achieve the most eff ective outcomes. Agility and speed. Agile capabilities, organizational design, culture, work style, funding, governance, and

8、sourcing can help companies innovate rapidly. Innovation and ecosystems. A radar for disruptive technologies, an innovation ecosystem, and a pipeline of ideas can enable continual innovation. Blurred internal boundaries. Embedding technologists in business functions can extend technology funding and

9、 accountability deeper into the business. Future workforce. As traditional IT tasks and capabilities disappear, businesses seek talent with new technical skill sets and soft skills. Governance and funding. Leaders can consider making governance and funding changes that support technology innovation

10、and a product-centric focus. Leadership and culture. Leadership skills and a supportive culture can help companies recruit, develop, and inspire the technology workforce. Digital transition. Every companys transition from digital experience to digital reality will have a diff erent focus, type of le

11、ader, and structure. Data organization. Data- focused organizations extend the focus of analytics from operational effi ciency and risk management to value creation. Cloud adoption. Adopting the cloud typically shrinks the centralized IT organization and promotes value cocreation in addition to oper

12、ational excellence. Build wisely: The macro forces in concert In and of themselves, none of the macro forces is suffi cient. But like instruments in a symphony, the macro forces, working in concert, can lead to innovative new business models, new sources of business value, and transformed business o

13、perations. In our exploration of these macro forces over the last decade, perhaps our most signifi cant fi nding was that the most eff ective organizations are combining multiple trends. For each of our 2020 trends, we highlight how multiple macro forces come together to set the stage for a new disr

14、uption. Take, for example, digital twin technology. Over the course of the last decade, advances in cloud, analytics, cognitive technologies, and digital reality have combined with digital design and manufacturing system advancements to make it easier to integrate data from multiple systems, softwar

15、e platforms, applications and hardware. Now organizations across industries can use digital twins to optimize processes, make data-driven decisions in real time, and create new products, services, and business models. Leading organizations are proactively engineering a controlled collision of these

16、macro technology forces to create a solid foundation for innovation that can propel their business into the future. Macro technology forces 2020 ARE YOU READY? How is your business integrating the adoption of emerging technologies with business strategy? Which time horizon does your organizations te

17、chnology strategy currently address? How many, and which, macro technology forces do you believe provide the strongest backbone for future innovation in your business? LEARN MORE 1 2 3 BOTTOM LINE Nine macro forces will continue to shape future business and technology strategies, IT operations and i

18、nvestments, business models, and markets. Together, theyre clearing a path for three new forces that could render our world unrecognizable by the next decade. Our challenge is to organize the enterprise to navigate the macro forces from experience to digital reality, analytics to cognitive, and clou

19、d to blockchain to deliver on the combined promise that these forces hold. CIO INSIDER SERIES Navigate the evolving tech landscape with actionable business insights, technical knowledge, and research. 2019 FUTURE OF CYBER SURVEY Learn how executives are embracing integrated cyber strategies that emp

20、ower business growth. The future of cyber survey 2019 Cyber everywhere. Succeed anywhere. STATE OF AI IN THE ENTERPRISE Gain insights on how organizations are adopting and benefi ting from cognitive computing/AI. 2 3 Visit insights/tech-trends for links to these resources. Tech Trends 2020 21 Macro

21、technology forces Authors BILL BRIGGS is a principal with Deloitte Consulting LLP and is the global chief technology offi cer. With more than 20 years of experience, he helps clients anticipate the impact that emerging technologies may have on their businesses in the future, and how to get there fro

22、m the realities of today. He also helps defi ne the vision and incubate the future of Deloitte Consulting LLPs evolving technology services and off erings. Briggs serves as executive sponsor of Deloittes CIO Program, off ering CIOs and other IT executives insights on how to navigate the complex chal

23、lenges they face in business and technology. SCOTT BUCHHOLZ is a managing director with Deloitte Consulting LLP and serves as the Government and Public Services chief technology offi cer and the national Emerging Tech Research director. A leader and visionary with more than 25 years experience, he a

24、dvises clients on how to navigate the future using existing and emerging technologies. Buchholz also leads Deloittes eff orts to incubate nascent technology off erings. SANDEEP SHARMA is the deputy chief technology offi cer and managing director in the Strategy and Analytics practice with Deloitte C

25、onsulting LLP. He has a doctorate in real-time analytics and is a data scientist with more than 23 years of global experience, focusing on the future of analytics, artifi cial intelligence, digital workforce, and data modernization programs. Sharma works in a variety of industries, helping our clien

26、ts to become Al-enabled, insight-driven organizations. SENIOR CONTRIBUTORS Andries van Dijk Director Deloitte Consulting B.V. Nicholas Reed Senior manager Deloitte MCS Limited Hans van Grieken Independent adviser Deloitte MCS Limited 22 Tech Trends 2020 1. Deloitte Insights, Tech Trends 2019, 2019.

27、2. Bill Briggs et al., Industrializing innovation: 2018 global CIO survey, chapter 6, Deloitte Insights, August 8, 2018. 3. Angel Vaccaro et al., Beyond marketing: Experience reimagined, Deloitte Insights, January 16, 2019. 4. Briggs et al., Industrializing innovation. 5. Ibid. 6. Bill Briggs et al.

28、, Strengthen the core: 2018 global CIO survey, chapter 5, Deloitte Insights, August 8, 2018. 7. George Collins et al., Everything-as-a-service: Modernizing the core through a services lens, Deloitte Insights, February 7, 2017. 8. Jeff Borker, “What is hyperscale?,” Digital Realty, November 15, 2017.

29、 9. International Data Corporation, “Worldwide spending on augmented and virtual reality expected to surpass $20 billion in 2019, according to IDC,” December 6, 2018. 10. Jonathan Lang, “AR cooperation with law enforcement is routine in many countries but perhaps unwise in places with rampant corrup

30、tion or lack of protection for political or religious rights. Some countries have very specific regulations around gaining explicit customer consent to data usage; other municipalities are passing legislation, such as banning facial recognition technology, that can conflict with other rulings. Effec

31、tive governance of emerging technologies requires all relevant stakeholdersindustry, consumers, businesses, governments, academia, and societyto work together. Businesses can play a key role in helping governments as they develop laws and standards that increase the reliability of emerging technolog

32、ies16frank, candid discourse about new technologies, for example, could lead to new rules and guidance concerning matters of privacy, transparency, inclusivity, accessibility, inequality, and more.17 EMPOWER THE PEOPLE Since technology is arguably used by most if not all individuals within an organi

33、zation, ethical tech- nology and trust is a topic that touches everyone. Deploy the power of all. Companies can waste time and money creating something that excludes a customer group or providing a service with undesirable side effects. Perhaps even worse, they may build solutions that undermine cus

34、tomer trust. Often, design dilemmas begin with a homogeneous group of people designing products, processes, or services without thinking through how other groups of people might be affected. Leading companies are changing this dynamic by creating teams and roles that reflect their diverse customer b

35、ase and bringing in multiple viewpoints from different industries, economic backgrounds, educational experiences, genders, and ethnic backgrounds.18 A 2013 Harvard survey revealed that organizations with leadership teams that have a combination of at least three inherent (ones you are born with) Tec

36、h Trends 2020 28 and three acquired (ones you gain through experience) diversity traits out-innovate and outperform the others; these organizations are 45 percent more likely to report growth in market share and 70 percent more likely to report capturing a new market.19 Teach them to fish. Training

37、technologists to recognize their own biases, and to eliminate bias in the products they create is an important step toward creating a culture that emphasizes trust. But it is only one step. Building awareness of how technology affects stakeholder trust in those not directly involved or responsible f

38、or technology and creating associated decision- making frameworks are additional steps organizations should consider. This is especially important in nondigital native organizations, where the ripple effects of day-to-day uses of technology may be less obvious to leaders and teams. Companies should

39、consider what resources may be needed to help their employees recognize ethical dilemmas, evaluate alternatives, and make (and test) ethical technology decisions.20 Give employees a reason to trust. Much of the anxiety over AI and other advanced technologies stems from the fear of the displacement o

40、f labor. From an ethical perspective, this presents business leaders with a challenge: balancing the best interests of the business, the employees, and the wider community and society. Its a task made more complex by the fact that advanced technology systems are not self-sufficient. While AI can rep

41、lace some jobs, for example, it creates others that often require specialized skills and training.21 Companies can build trust with employees by advising them how technology may affect their jobs in the future. This could include retraining workers whose roles may evolve and who will likely work wit

42、h automated systems.22 360 degrees of opportunity Companies that dont consider technology to be their core business may assume that these considerations are largely irrelevant. In truth, no matter the industry or geography, most organizations are increasingly reliant on advanced digital and physical

43、 technologies to run their day-to-day operations. While there is so much emphasis on the challenges disruptive technologies bring and the existential threats to an organizations reputation when technology isnt handled correctlywhether through misfeasance or malfeasancethese same disruptive technolog

44、ies can be used to increase transparency, harden security, boost data privacy, and ultimately bolster an organizations position of trust. For example, organizations can pivot personalization algorithms to provide relevant recommendations based on circumstancefor example, offer an umbrella on a rainy

45、 day rather than an umbrella after someone buys a raincoat. By focusing on relevance rather than personalization, AI recommendations are likely to seem more helpful than invasive.23 Deloitte surveys have found a positive correlation between organizations that strongly consider the ethics of Industry

46、 4.0 technologies and company growth rates. For instance, in organizations that are witnessing low growth (up to 5 percent), only 27 percent of the respondents indicated that they are strongly considering the ethical ramifications of these technologies. By contrast, 55 percent of the respondents fro

47、m companies growing at a rate of 10 percent or more are highly concerned about ethical considerations.24 After all, the pursuit of trust is not just a 360-degree challenge. It is also a 360-degree opportunity. Ethical technology and trust 29 A healthy foundation for trust LESSONS FROM THE FRONT LINE

48、S D ISRUPTIONS IN THE health care industry including new care delivery models, consumer demand for digital experiences, declining reimbursements, and growing regulatory pressuresare driving many health care organizations to use technology to improve efficiency, cut costs, and improve patient care. And there could be an inadvertent benefit: Technology could help health care systems build trust with patients and providers. Providence St. Joseph Health (PSJH) is leveraging technology to adhere to its mission of improv