1、Leveraging regional corridors to support growth and development in GuineaFrom connectivity to OPPORTUNITYCIIPCompetitiveIndustries andInnovationProgramPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedDesign and visualizations by Voil:|ch

2、ezVLeveraging regional corridors to support growth and development in GuineaFrom connectivity to OPPORTUNITY12TABLE OF CONTENTSAcknowledgments p.6Overview p.15What are the opportunities?p.25Executive Summary p.934What are the constraints?p.39What should be done?p.57Annexes p.75From connectivity to o

3、pportunity6AcknowledgmentsThis report was prepared by a team led by Ernest Sergenti(Senior Economist)and Megha Mukim(Senior Urban Economist),and consisting of Puja Guha(Consultant),Alex Chunet(Land and Geospatial Specialist),Mathilde Sylvie Maria Lebrand(Senior Economist),and Boulel Toure(Senior Cou

4、ntry Economist).This report has benefitted from numerous exchanges with and guidance from officials and experts from the national government,including the Ministry of Plan and International Cooperation(MPCI),Ministry of Urban Planning,Housing and Regional Planning,the Ministry of Territorial Adminis

5、tration and Decentralization(MATD),the Ministry of Public Works(MTP),the Ministry of Economy and Finance(MEF),the Ministry of Budget,the Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development(MEDD),the Ministry of Transport,the Ministry of Mines and Geology,the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock,the

6、 Ministry of Energy,Hydraulics and Hydrocarbons,and the Ministry of Investments and Public-Private Partnerships.Local government officials and experts who provided their insights include the Mayors offices in Mamou,Kankan,Nzrkor,and Bok and local representation of the Regional Agency for SMEs and In

7、dustry,Habitat and Urbanism Directorate,the Guinean Employment Promotion Agency,Collectivits,Youth Support,Technical Training,Electricit de Guine,Societ dEau de Guine,the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock,and the Guinea Transport Union,as well as the Federation of Fruit Producers,the Federation

8、of Linyam and Sesame,the Federation of Shea Butter Producers,La Guinenne des Terroirs and the Sub Contracting Exchange for Bok.We wish to thank all the officials and experts that we met during the research,conceptualization and drafting of this report for their time,insights,and generosity.The team

9、is also very grateful to the European Union(Alexandre Serres and Veerle Smet)and the African Development Bank(Driss Belamine),for sharing studies and insights;to the PAST project members(Ren Cousin,Eliot Simpson)for sharing the draft Plan de Dplacements Urbain(PDU)and for allowing us to use its find

10、ings;to Jacques Maffre and the Direction Nationale des Impts for sharing the information on the location of commercial activities;to Sory Kouyat for rich conversations and his encyclopedic knowledge of the history of urban projects and interventions in Conakry;and to Catherine Farvacque-Vitkovc for

11、discussing the findings of the report and her accounting of World Bank interventions in Conakry.We would also like to thank colleagues from other global practices who participated in brainstorming and discussions with the team throughout the course of the project including Marc Navelet(Senior Transp

12、ort Specialist,IAET2),Federico Antoniazzi(Transport Economist),El Hadji Adama Toure(Lead Agriculture Economist),Marie Caroline Paviot(Senior Agriculture Economist,SLCAG),Mariama Altine Mahamane(Senior Agriculture Economist,SAWA4),Nicolas Perrin(Practice Manager,SAWS1),7AcknowledgmentsKaori Oshima(Se

13、nior Social Development Specialist,SEAS1),Abel Bove(Senior Public Sector Specialist,EMNGU),Roy Katayama(Senior Economist,ELCPV),Ibrahim Magazi(Health Economist),Assane Dieng(Senior Education Specialist,HAWE2),Djamali Ibrahime(Senior Energy Specialist,IAWE2),Boubacar Bocoum(Lead Mining Specialist,IEE

14、XI),Ellysar Baroudy(Lead Natural Resources Management Specialist,SAWE1),Idriss Deffry(Environmental Specialist,SAWE1),and Mamady Kobele Keita(Environmental Specialist,SAWE1).The team gratefully acknowledges the peer reviews and inputs from these colleagues:Somik Lall(Economic Advisor,World Bank),Mic

15、hele Ruta(Deputy Chief,Strategy and Policy Review Department,International Monetary Fund),Aiga Stokenberga(Senior Transport Economist,ILCT1),Anca Cristina Dumitrescu(Consultant,IAWT4),Soraya Goga(Lead Urban Specialist,SAEU3),ThiernoHamidou Diallo(Operations Analyst,AWMGN),Thierno Samba Sy(Consultant

16、,IFC CEMIA),Saramory Kampo(Senior Operations Officer,IFC CEMIA),Julie Babinard(Senior Operations Officer,AFEDE),Khaleda Atta,Diana Hristova(Consultant,EAEF1),Micky Ananth(Operations Officer,EAWM1),and Susana M.Sanchez(Senior Economist,OPSCE).Senior management of the Macroeconomics,Trade and Investme

17、nt,and the Urban,Resilience and Land Global Practices and the Country Management Unit provided guidance and strong support throughout the research,including Theo David Thomas(Practice Manager),Sylvie Debomy(Practice Manager),Nestor Coffi(Country Manager),Coralie Gevers(ex-Country Director,now Chief

18、of Staff),Andrea Coppola(Program Leader),Lars Christian Moller(Practice Manager),and Meskerem Brhane(Regional Director,SMNDR).Connie Kok Shun(Ex-Senior Program Assistant,now retired),Theresa Adobea Bampoe(Program Assistant),Maude Jean-Baptiste(Program Assistant),Ngamet Toure(Program Assistant),and A

19、issatou Tidiane Diallo(Program Assistant)provided excellent administrative assistance.Voil:was responsible for the design,layout,and visualizations of the report.This work received generous financial support from the Competitive Industries and Innovation Program.9Executive SummaryThe objectives of t

20、his study are to(1)assess the impact of regional and internal connectivity on jobs and access to services and(2)to provide recommendations for policy reforms and investments.This analysis uses quantitative and qualitative approaches to understand the opportunities that better connectivity provides f

21、or secondary cities in Guinea,what factors might constrain the potential for growth and,how policy makers at different levels of government should respond to maximize the benefits of economic corridors.This analysis also aims to provide a better understanding of the relative impact of transport impr

22、ovements and direct trade facilitation reforms.Finally,the study assesses complementary reforms,investments,and overall policies to develop practical and implementable recommendations that could be deployed to enhance the returns to better trade and connectivity to urban areas in Guinea.From connect

23、ivity to opportunity10The analysis and recommendations presented here also support Guineas transition towards a more diversified and higher-value-added economy.An underlying focus of this study lies in how to strengthen and leverage Guineas robust mining sector to support the development of other se

24、ctors in and around Guineas secondary cities.Economic sectors such as agriculture,processing of goods,and other services have high potential.However,weak management of Guineas secondary urban agglomerations and the poorly understood potential of these regions constrains the country from reaching its

25、 potential for diversification at both the sectoral and spatial levels.As this report develops below,to prepare for potential diversification,secondary cities must lower the cost of doing business and bring in more investment across sectors,including entry into the market for other tradeable goods.T

26、he report begins with a quantitative analysis,which identifies the expected impacts from potential investments in road infrastructure or trade facilitation reforms,and the opportunities these would represent for secondary cities in Guinea.Quantitative models are used to estimate these impacts by com

27、paring a baseline scenario(representative of current travel times)and the associated costs to different scenarios integrating either(i)infrastructure improvements or(ii)a reduction in transit times and/or border delays.The models quantify the gains(or losses)from a spatial perspective,disaggregating

28、 impacts for individual Guinean cities,and evaluating the impact of these factors separately and in combination.The quantitative analysis uses two approaches:first,a gravitational market access(MA)model based on the Donaldson and Hornbeck(2016)methodology,and second,a spatial general-equilibrium(GE)

29、model to estimate wider gains and spillover effects based on Lebrand(2021).1 The two models complement one other,with different spatial,structural,and temporal perspectives.The MA model measures access between cities within Guinea and with other West African cities,while the spatial GE model focuses

30、 on access at the subnational(or prefecture)level within Guinea and over the West African region.With the MA model,we focus on the gains to Guinean cities,and we use the GE model to make transnational comparisons.In addition,the MA model provides a static picture on the impact of transportation and

31、trade reforms,while the spatial GE model uses a dynamic approach that incorporates longer-term general equilibrium wage and population adjustments.Our findings indicate that overall gains linked to infrastructure investments are low,unless accompanied by trade facilitation measures.With both models,

32、the gains from improved transport infrastructure are higher within countries than between countries.On the other hand,the gains linked to trade facilitation measures are much greater and have a more uniform impact across cities.While infrastructure-only investments generate a maximum of 2.1 percent

33、increase in real wages,when combined with trade facilitation measures,the gains are far higher at more than 8 percent.Essentially,the gains from reducing border delays would magnify the gains of road upgrading.This underscores an important point:upgrading physical infrastructure and creating more fl

34、uid borders should be a package of policies to improve domestic and regional connectivity.The qualitative analysis illustrates the pre-existing local conditions in secondary cities that would enable(or constrain)exploiting the potential opportunities from better connectivity.Four secondary cities ar

35、e selected for in-depth case studies serving as archetypes of the broader set of urban areas in the country.The case study methodology is based on interviews with local government,local businesses,and other relevant stakeholders.These interviews allow for diving deeper into the material,where empiri

36、cal data is lacking,and thus provide a fuller understanding of local realities and capacities.Thus,concrete policy recommendations can be provided,allowing for more detail and to ensure that these are implementable.1.Lebrand(2021).Economic gains from investing in road corridors in West Africa11Execu

37、tive summaryFour case study cities(Kankan,Mamou,Bok,and Nzrkor)were chosen for this analysis.These cities are broadly representative of secondary cities in Guinea,and their selection was reiterated by stakeholders in Guinea.These cities showed potential for gains from better connectivity,they are we

38、ll distributed across different regions in Guinea,and they represent different typologies.Kankan is the second largest city in Guinea,located along the transport corridor connecting Guinea to Mali.Mamou is centrally located and is a hub for most of the major transport corridors in Guinea.Like Conakr

39、y,Bok is located in the Maritime region close to the coast and is a major mining center,and Nzrkor is in Forested Guinea close to the border with Cte dIvoire and Liberia.Constraints hampering economic growth across the case study cities include a lack of spatial planning and coordinated investments

40、which contributes to urban fragmentation,poor and unequal access to public services,and most importantly,a lack of capacity and financing at the local government level.The lack of spatial planning means that agglomeration economies remain unrealized.Large levels of urban expansions have placed an ev

41、en larger burden on public service delivery due to this fragmentation as surface areas have grown without direct contact to better serviced parts of the city.A low concentration of tradable activities also amplifies a lack of competitiveness,especially with the lack of reliable public services(parti

42、cularly provisions for electricity and running water).The limited levels of public services make serviced land scarce,a key constraint to local businesses.Potential agricultural and other exports are hampered by poor road maintenance and the lack of available cold storage equipment and infrastructur

43、e.In addition,local initiatives undertaken by cities in Guinea are impeded by a small administrative remit,limited capability to implement that remit,and a lack of financing for investments.Both capacity and legal constraints impede local government policy initiatives.In other words,the mayors wedge

44、,or the policy remit available to local leaders,is small.Under the Code Communale,communes have fourteen distinct local administration powers,including the ability to provide for small-scale public services and infrastructure provisions such as the rehabilitation of school and hospital buildings.How

45、ever,despite the powers explicitly decentralized under the Code Communale,in practice,local governments are highly dependent on national government structures operating at the local level.Transfers from the national government to LGs are based on opaque rules,meaning that communities have rarely ben

46、efited from these transfers,except in mining areas where real transfers have enabled new infrastructure development.22.UNECA(2009).Finances publiques locales:Exprience Guinenne.LinkFrom connectivity to opportunity12Based on the analysis of opportunities and the underlying constraints,the study prior

47、itizes the following policy improvements reforms and investments.These are provided in Table 1.The recommendations are organized into 3 categories-necessary actions(highlighted in red),desirable actions(highlighted in orange),and strategic bets(highlighted in blue).a.Institutions&Regulation:To attra

48、ct private investment,Guinea should complete the ongoing reforms to the Public Private Partnerships(PPPs)framework,including the establishment of a new specialized unit to help advance the many pipeline PPP projects,notably in energy and transport.3 Additionally,several interventions can help to inc

49、rease local government capacity such as increasing sources of own-source fiscal revenues4 and other local revenues.Finally,improvements to standards regulations and associated facilities will help agriculture companies address downstream buyer requirements.At the national level,the full implementati

50、on of a single window system for customs(in Conakry and at land borders around the country)will streamline both imports and exports to support firms across industries.Implementation of trade policy reforms will also help to improve competition policy,along with investment promotion,protection,and re

51、tention.5b.Infrastructure&Land:Better spatial planning and reducing and improving regulations around land use will improve the environment for potential investors and allow for an inventory of public land,buildings,and infrastructure.Provisions such as reforms in the energy and water sectors and the

52、 use of performance-based contracts to ensure better quality of constructed infrastructure can also help to address constraints to public service delivery.c.Skills&Innovation:Skills training programs for the local population to help address skilled labor requirements in the mining sector.Since agric

53、ulture is a high potential sector,extension services will help to improve the quality of production for specific crops with downstream demand(e.g.,food provisions for mining companies).d.Enterprise Support&Finance:Provisions for investment promotion will help to attract potential investors.Additiona

54、lly,support should be provided for local small and medium enterprises(SMEs),including financing and technical,management,and basic business development training.3.Also,a main recommendation of the Guinea Country Private Sector Diagnostic(CPSD)2020.4.Local government own source revenue is defined as

55、revenue raised by a local government from its own imposition of a tax,a license,a fee,or any other charge.5.Mattoo,Aaditya;Rocha,Nadia;Ruta,Michele.2020.The Evolution of Deep Trade Agreements.Policy Research Working Paper;No.9283.World Bank,Washington,DC.13Executive summaryInstitutions&RegulationsIn

56、frastructure&LandSkills&InnovationEnterprise Support&FinanceCentral governmentFull implementation of more favorable environment for PPPsNational standards and certifications Business environment reform Trade policy reformsLand use regulationsSpatial development planningImprovements to public service

57、 infrastructureSkills development programsIndustry-targeted supportInvestment promotionAccess to finance and SME development programs Local governmentLG capacity building Improvements to local public servicesSkills development programsIndustry-targeted supportAccess to finance and SME development pr

58、ogramsKey:Necessary actions,Desirable actions,and Strategic Bets.Several open questions remain,beyond the scope of this study.Actions to assess and support better environmental sustainability,along with interventions for better climate change adaptation and mitigation were not considered as part of

59、these analyses.The study also does not include detailed value chain assessments for any of the case study cities or surrounding regions.These areas should be considered as part of future work to inform the development of secondary cities in Guinea.Summary of recommendationsTABLE 1115OverviewFrom con

60、nectivity to opportunity161.1 What are the objectives of this study?The main objectives of this study are to(1)assess the impact of regional and internal connectivity on jobs and access to services,and(2)to provide recommendations for policy reforms and investments.First,the analysis examines the re

61、lative impact of improvements in transport improvements and direct trade facilitation reforms.Second and importantly,the study also assesses the complementary reforms,investments,and overall policies to be deployed in urban areas to enhance the returns to better trade and connectivity.It focuses on

62、how such interventions can be prioritized,and how coalitions can be developed for implementation.The recommendations aim to be practical,implementable,and realizable given the current country context.17Overview1.2 Why,Where and How?Guinea is endowed with considerable natural resources relative to it

63、s GDP but remains one of the poorest and least competitive countries in the world.Although Guinea benefits from large deposits of iron ore,bauxite,gold,and diamonds,and large hydro-power potential,43.7 percent of its population lives below the national poverty line,with a poverty rate of about 55 pe

64、rcent in rural populations and about 35 percent that are extremely poor.Access to basic services is low,with only a small share of the population benefiting from access to electricity(33 percent)6 and improved sanitation(20 percent).Gender inequality is a challenge,with only 40 percent of girls enro

65、lled in secondary education(compared to 50 percent for boys).According to the 2018 Global Competitiveness Report,Guinea ranks 126th out of 140 countries,with large gaps in the quality of public and private institutions,infrastructure(transport,electricity,telecommunications),education,market size,an

66、d innovation capability.For the domestic private sector to flourish and create jobs,Guinea urgently needs to(i)leverage the resources of its mining sector to develop other sectors of the economy and(ii)improve domestic economic connectivity.Mining accounts for a large share of Guineas GDP and export

67、s but provides few jobs,and revenues from the sector are not adequately distributed across the country.By contrast,most of the population is employed in the agricultural sector,which suffers from low productivity.Conakry operates as the main economic center of the country,while economic connectivity

68、 to and among secondary cities is constrained by poor road and transport infrastructure.Agriculture and agri-business activity are held back by poor infrastructure along critical domestic corridors between secondary cities and Conakry.Critical domestic corridors are usually congested due to flooding

69、,poor road maintenance,and single lane bridges,discouraging trading activities.7 Improving economic connectivity among Guineas network of secondary cities is needed for private sector development and productivity improvements.With a land mass of approximately 246 thousand square kilometers,Guinea is

70、 the 77th largest country in the world,larger than the United Kingdom.According to several local businesses,better connectivity among the countrys secondary cities and with Conakry could foster greater trade and growth,making these cities more attractive to investors and helping to alleviate poverty

71、 in these areas.The latter mechanism could also serve as a break on rural migration to Conakry,which has been struggling to keep up with the growing needs of its citizens.8 Difficulties in accessing secondary cities,such as Kankan and Mamou,were cited as the primary reason that several agriculture f

72、irms cannot be located closer to ideal areas of production.96.Direction National des Investissements Publics,Guinea7.Interview conducted with local government officials in Nzrkor8.Avner,P.and Mukim,M.2019.“Guinea Urban Sector Review:Planning,Connecting,Financing in Conakry”,World Bank Group.Link9.In

73、terviews conducted with three Guinean agribusinesses headquartered in the vicinity of ConakryFrom connectivity to opportunity18In the context of planned and potential connectivity investments,Guineas urban agglomerations represent an important untapped opportunity to bring about structural transform

74、ation in the country.The 2019 Guinea Urban Sector Review10 found that urban areas in the country do not currently act as engines of growth and competitiveness and fail to provide public services for their residents.In addition to Conakry(with more than 1.8 million inhabitants),densification within G

75、uineas secondary cities continues at a high rate,especially from increased urban-rural linkages.Conakry and other urban clusters have the potential to provide opportunities for growth based on economies of scale and deep markets.However,there remains limited understanding of the market potential of

76、these urban agglomerations,including the possibilities for vertical linkages between different types of cities and rural areas.Urban agglomerations in Guinea have yet to generate the expected benefits from productive economies of scale and become the engines of growth and job creation.Despite geogra

77、phic advantages,the high cost and inefficiency of trade logistics limit Guineas regional and global integration.Guineas largest trading partners remain outside the region(70 percent in Asia and 26 percent in Europe)with less than 7 percent of its formal imports and 2.6 percent of its exports occurri

78、ng within Africa.Major barriers to regional trade include the extremely poor road network,and the lack of harmonization of customs systems with bordering countries.For trade outside the region,the port of Conakry is among the most expensive in the region.Abidjan,Dakar,and Nouakchott are cheaper.The

79、port is also highly congested,with occupancy rates of above 70 percent for all berths but two and is located on the citys crowded peninsula,contributing to major traffic jams.Moreover,Guineas trade and transport infrastructure has fallen behind those of its peers.According to the World Banks Logisti

80、cs Performance Index(LPI,2018),which measures the effectiveness of logistics across ports,railroads,roads,and information technology,Guineas performance has declined sharply in recent years,falling behind averages for regional and income group peers(Figure 1).This decline is primarily due to falling

81、 road and infrastructure quality,especially relative to regional peers.In addition,at 2.9 km per 100 square kilometers,Guineas national road density is well below benchmarks(5.1 km in Cte dIvoire,6.2 km in Ghana,and 6.8 km in SSA on average).Furthermore,less than one-third of national roads are pave

82、d,and those that are paved have been deteriorating over time.In2004,only 35 percent of Guineas national paved roads were in good condition,according to available data.This share declined to 25 percent in 2012,and to just 16 percent in 2014.These challenges are confirmed by the Guineas very low LPI r

83、anking(129thout of 160 countries),with low scores for the quality of its trade-and transport-related infrastructure,as well as the efficiency of the clearance process by border control agencies.1110.Avner,P.and Mukim,M.2019.“Guinea Urban Sector Review:Planning,Connecting,Financing in Conakry”,World

84、Bank Group.Link11.World Bank(2020).Guinea Country Private Sector Diagnostic(CPSD)19OverviewIn addition,Guinea should spend more on maintenance of its existing road network.In 2019,the Government allocated about GNF289 billion(USD 30 million or 0.25 percent of GDP)to the maintenance of roads,whereas

85、a minimum of 1 percent of GDP is normally required and more if roads have deteriorated and the network is extensive.Routine maintenance of deteriorated roads requires surface repairs that are more expensive.There is also a correlation between the size of a properly maintained road network and the GD

86、P of the country.Developing countries with a GDP of around USD 10 billion can reasonably afford the proper maintenance of a network of about 20,000 km,not 45,000 km as in Guinea.For Guinea,in 2020,the road investment/maintenance ratio reached 8:1 due to the severe underfunding of road maintenance.Gu

87、ineas trade and transport infrastructure lags behind that of its peers.FIGURE 1Logistics performance index(LPI,2018)11.52Low income countries2.533.082.592.252.232.202000018Cte dIvoireMaliSenegalLiberiaGuineaFrom connectivity to opportunity20Description of historical

88、cases considered12.Sequeria,S.,O.Hartman,and C.Kunaka.2014.“Reviving Trade Routes:Evidence from the Maputo Corridor.”Discussion Paper 4,Sub-Saharan Africa Transport Policy Program(SSATP),Washington,DC.a.Vietnam:The National Highway No.5(NH-5)was developed in the 1990s as a transport corridor connect

89、ing Hanoi with Hai Phong Port to its east.This case highlights the importance of business environment reforms,combined with proactive investment promotion,and the use of industrial parks to address bottlenecks in the efficiency of land markets.b.Mozambique and South Africa:The Maputo Corridor connec

90、ts several South African provinces to Maputo and is also used by Swaziland and Zimbabwe for access to the sea.12 Investments in this corridor underscore the importance of industry focused investments to improve firm efficiency and the use of spatial development clusters and industrial parks to attra

91、ct investment.c.India:The Golden Quadrilateral and North-South-East-West highway systems was launched in 2001 to connect the four largest economic centers in India:Delhi,Mumbai,Chennai,and Kolkata.This case points to the importance of the development of the logistics industry,along with addressing c

92、onstraints in land markets and the need to support human capital with skills development programs.d.Thailand:In the late 1980s,Thailand began construction on several infrastructure investments including a new deep-water port at Laem Chabang and highway construction to connect the port to Bangkok.The

93、 transport investments were accompanied by industry incentives for auto manufacturers and business environment reforms,along with the development of private industrial estates along the new highway,emphasizing the importance of industry-targeted policies and business environment reforms.e.Malaysia:T

94、he Northern Corridor Economic Region attempts to address spatial inequality issues by connecting industrial hubs with transport investments.This approach emphasizes business environment reforms,especially customs reform,in addition to labor market development.f.China:The development of high-speed ra

95、il through Gui Zhou province in Western China connected it to all 88 counties in Western China.Through both national and provincial level policies,this rail infrastructure,along with highway and airport development,helped spur an industrial shift in Gui Zhou province.This case illustrates the use of

96、 spatial development planning,such as economic zones and industrial parks,to address land market constraints,alongside investment promotion and SME development efforts.BOX 1Examination of historical cases shows that transport corridor development can have a strong impact on economic development of c

97、ities and regions but that outcomes are shaped largely by complementary policies and investments.Studies of positive connectivity shocks report generally positive impacts on real income,poverty,consumption,and jobs,although exceptions do exist.The cases also show that complementary policies shape an

98、d define the economic transformation:the scale of the impact,the locations where the impact is felt,and the industrial transformation that takes place.As such,recommendations as to what investments and policy interventions should accompany transport investments must be grounded in the local context.

99、Box 1 provides a summary of the different complementary policy options applied in several historical cases.21OverviewThe geographic scope of this study is limited to those corridors that are crucial to better integrating Guinea within the West Africa region.There are several potential corridors,prop

100、osed and existing,in West Africa.13 To keep the study manageable,only corridors that traverse Guinea or touch Guinean borders,and thus could directly14 impact cities in Guinea are considered.The Economic Community of West African States(ECOWAS),the West African Economic and Monetary Union(WAEMU)and

101、the African Development Bank(AfDB)have designated several transport corridors as being a priority for improving access in the region.Guinea is a member of ECOWAS,but not of WAEMU.The selection of corridors affecting Guinea covers those that pass through its territory,which include corridors defined

102、by ECOWAS and the eventual extension of corridors in the case of certain WAEMU corridors,such as the Conakry-Abidjan corridor(see Figure 1).The study also looks at the universe of corridors defined by the African Union and the Trans-African Highway network,15 a product of the cooperation between the

103、 United Nations Commission for Africa,the African Union,and the AfDB.Therefore,after careful consideration,the following corridors were selected for the study(see Figure 2 and Annex 1 for details on the motivations for the selection of each corridor):13.For a comprehensive list,see Annex 1 and assoc

104、iated maps.14.Guinean cities could also be affected indirectly,for instance with trade diversion through corridors outside of its territory.However,these corridors are not under the geographical scope of the study.15.Wikipedia LinkSelected CorridorsFIGURE 2GambiaSenegalGuinea-BissauMaliCte dIvoireLi

105、beriaSierra LeoneBamakoKankanAbidjanTambacoundaLabMamouKindiaDakarMbourBanjulBissauBokConakryMonroviaNzrkorGuckdougouFaranahKissidougouFrom connectivity to opportunity221.3 How?This analysis uses a combined quantitative and qualitative approach to identify opportunities and constraints for different

106、 locations in Guinea.To establish causal explanations,the study looks to establish causal effects(i.e.the correlation between causes and outcomes)and causal mechanisms(i.e.to explain the how and why of processes by which causes determine outcomes).The quantitative analysis aims at identifying the im

107、pacts that could be expected from potential investments in road infrastructure or trade facilitation measures and therefore the opportunities this would represent for Guinea cities.The quantitative models used in the study to quantify the impacts compare a baseline scenario(representative of current

108、 travel times)and associated costs to different scenarios integrating either(i)infrastructure improvements or(ii)a reduction in transit times and/or border delays.The models quantify the gains(or losses)from a spatial perspective,disaggregating impacts for individual Guinean cities.In addition,night

109、time lights data were aggregated at the city level to integrate city-level GDP in the model and therefore take into account the level of local income.Case study analysis supplements the quantitative analyses by providing the direct local context regarding the opportunities and constraints faced by e

110、ach city.This methodology is based on interviews with local government,local businesses,and other relevant stakeholders.These interviews allow for a deeper dive approach and a fuller understanding of local realities and capacities.Thus,policy recommendations can be provided with more detail and in a

111、 more concrete manner.These interviews also provide insights on how different levels of government interact and work together.They also give stakeholders the opportunity to present their ideas on local level constraints,which can differ considerably from the constraints cited by officials at the nat

112、ional level.Using this mixed methodology approach can also help to identify specific policy interventions to address constraints or leverage opportunities.The balance between quantitative and qualitative analysis allows for a more nuanced understanding of the potential,what could be done to reach th

113、e potential,who could implement policy changes,and how.Given the multiple demands on a small public purse,coupled with low capabilities,the study focuses attention on the highest potential interventions that ought to be,and importantly,could be,implemented at the local level,with examples of how the

114、se could be made to work given the local and national context.23Overview1.4 What does this mean for policy makers?This study provides critical inputs to support Guineas agenda for creating growth poles centered on secondary cities.For Guinea to capitalize on planned corridor investments,complementar

115、y coordinated investments are required for wider economic benefits.As detailed in the World Banks Regional Integration and Cooperation Assistance Strategy,16 supporting Africas transformation requires addressing gaps in hard and soft infrastructure,as well as supporting the private sector to capital

116、ize on these opportunities.A recent review of corridor projects suggests jointly tackling a range of non-infrastructure impediments,including customs reforms and targeting producers and processors constraints to leverage the benefits of improved physical connectivity.17 This can in turn attract addi

117、tional private financing into productive sectors,generate trade,and support job creation.The context of the COVID-19 pandemic amplifies the importance of this study.The pandemic has resulted in global supply disruptions and is likely to exacerbate pre-existing factors of fragility and widen inequali

118、ties and imbalances.As noted in the WBGs Crisis Response Approach Paper,investments in hard and soft infrastructure to support regional trade and local value chains are critical to stimulate recovery.18 Complementary policies(i.e.,soft infrastructure)will help to ensure business growth and job creat

119、ion,bolstering economic resiliency and stimulating private sector recovery.16.World Bank.2018.Supporting Africas Integration:Regional Integration and Cooperation Strategy FY18-23.World Bank.The strategy suggests(i)“building regional infrastructure connectivity”by focusing on developing economic corr

120、idors;and(ii)“promoting trade and market integration”,by focusing on accelerating intra-regional trade,developing regional value chains,and addressing diseconomies of small financial markets.17.Melecky,Martin,Bougna,Xu.2018.“Transport Corridors and Their Wider Economic Benefits:A Critical Review of

121、the Literature”Policy Research Working Paper No.8302,World Bank.18.World Bank Group COVID-19 Crisis Response Approach Paper:Saving Lives,Scaling-up Impact and Getting Back on Track(English).Washington,D.C.:World Bank Group.Link225What are the opportunities?From connectivity to opportunity262.1 Under

122、standing the theory and the models.Intra-national and regional transport costs have been shown to be a main obstacle to regional trade in West Africa.19 The historical lack of investments explains the limited availability and quality of roads in the region and due to the colonial legacy,many countri

123、es have inherited networks that remain distorted towards access to the main ports at the expense of regional connectivity.20 Decades of colonization have shaped the transport network towards exports of raw resources towards the rest of the world.Little was done to increase regional connectivity outs

124、ide of the corridors reaching the sea.As such,the distribution of regional corridors remains suboptimal for the geography and distribution of comparative advantages of current economies.21On the other hand,checkpoints and border frictions represent another important obstacle.22 Travel time between c

125、ities are less dependent on the average speed at which a truck operates than on border delays.23 Therefore,more important than slow speed is the time a truck is idle while waiting for administrative procedures to be performed(at borders or at terminals during loading or unloading).For example,numero

126、us checkpoints along the Ghana-Togo-Benin coastal belt road reduce the accessibility of multiple border cities(Aflao,Lom,Come,and Aneho).These checkpoints constitute obstacles to the effective implementation of the Abidjan-Lagos transport corridor as planned in the future by states and regional inst

127、itutions.24By promoting trade across countries with thick borders,especially in places that have been physically and economically distant from global markets,large transport investments can improve welfare,but they also create internal challenges.It is well established that investing in transport wi

128、ll reduce costs leading to an increase in productivity and shifting the economy to a higher growth equilibrium.25 In Sub-Saharan Africa,Dorosh et al(2012)found that reduced travel time to the nearest market(proxied by a city with at least 100,000 people)leads to an increase in agricultural productio

129、n.19.Atkin,David and Dave Donaldson,“Whos Getting Globalized?The Size and Implications of Intra-national Trade Costs,”NBER Working Papers 21439,National Bureau of Economic Research,Inc July 2015;Teravaninthorn,Supee and Gael Raballand,“Transport Prices and Costs in Africa:A Review of the Internation

130、al Corridors”,Num.6610,World Bank,2009.20.Bonfatti,Roberto,Yuan Gu,and Steven Poelhekke,“Priority Roads:The Political Economy of Africas Interior-to-Coast Roads,”Technical Report 2019.21.Ibid22.OCDE,“Accessibility and Infrastructure in Border Cities,”West African Papers 23,OECD Publishing April 2019

131、.23.Teravaninthorn,Supee and Gael Raballand,Transport Prices and Costs in Africa:A Review of the International Corridors number 6610.In World Bank Publications.,TheWorld Bank,November 2009.24.AfDB-UEMOA,“Benin/Togo multinational project to upgrade the Lom-Cotonou route and facilitate trade and trans

132、port on the Abidjan-Lagos corridor”,2017.25.See Murphy et al,1989,and Agenor,2010.27What opportunities?However,because of transport costs and labor mobility frictions within countries,not all regions and workers evenly benefit from greater integration with global markets.Workers move towards better

133、opportunities,benefiting the regions that can offer better amenities and higher wages.Labor mobility frictions,however,prevent workers from benefiting equally from these new opportunities,with some having greater access to new economic gains than others.26 To analyze infrastructure and trade facilit

134、ation effects,we employ two approaches.The first approach applies a gravitational market access(MA)model based on the Donaldson and Hornbeck(2016)methodology.While the appraisal of transportation projects typically focuses on the direct benefits of a project(e.g.reductions in travel time,vehicle ope

135、rating costs,carbon emissions and accidents,etc.),the market access approach can quantify the wider economic benefits:namely that new or improved trade policies and investments link population centers,which then have greater opportunities to trade.27 In order to calculate gains in market access from

136、 either infrastructure improvements or trade facilitation measures,this approach relies only on the following data:(i)a GIS map of the transportation network,(ii)GDP estimates for each node(city)in the network;and(iii)parameters defining speeds,freight costs,and delays associated with trade,such as

137、delays at border crossings.See Annex 2 for more details.28To complement the analysis,a spatial general-equilibrium(GE)model was developed to estimate wider gains and spillover effects from large transport and border infrastructure investments in West Africa.The analysis focused on four regional corr

138、idors and is based on Lebrand(2021).29 This model uses the quantitative economic geography framework from Redding(2016)with trade within and across countries,and mobility of people within countries to assess the economic impacts of a reduction in trade costs from road and border infrastructure inves

139、tments.30 Better roads improve driving conditions,but many hours remain lost around land borders and at final destinations for goods to reach final customers.This analysis distinguishes between transit delays incurred by trucks crossing borders on their way and final border delays incurred in the de

140、stination location.This analysis therefore complements the estimated gains from better transport infrastructure by estimating the gains from lower land border delays.The analysis considers a subset of four corridors that would improve regional connectivity:Conakry-Bamako,Bamako-Monrovia,Conakry-Abid

141、jan,Lab-Dakar.See Annex 4 for a detailed description of the model and its assumptions.26.Lall,Somik V.and Mathilde Lebrand,“Who wins,who loses?Understanding the spatially differentiated effects of the belt and road initiative,”Journal of Development Economics,2020,146(C).27.Roberts,Mark and Bougna,T

142、heophile and Melecky,Martin and Xu,Yan,Transport Corridors and Their Wider Economic Benefits:A Critical Review of the Literature(January 17,2018).World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No.830228.Donaldson and Hornbeck(2016)developed this approach to study the effects of expanding the railway netwo

143、rk in the United States at the end of the 19th century.29.Lebrand(2021).Economic gains from investing in road corridors in West Africa30.Redding,Stephen J.,“Goods trade,factor mobility and welfare,”Journal of International Economics,2016,101(C),148167.From connectivity to opportunity28While the spat

144、ial GE provides important insights,it is also important to note the assumptions made and some of the limitations of the model,especially due to data constraints.In an ideal scenario,the model would have been calibrated using existing data on trade flows.Unfortunately trade flows in most West African

145、 countries are only very imperfectly observable at best.When trade data between countries do exist,they cover only official trade that is legally registered.In addition,data for within-country trade are very rarely available,which limits the amount of data that can be used to create a baseline.Consi

146、dering that some studies have highlighted that informal trade can represent up to 40 percent of total trade,the existing official data remains a very low bar of the existing non-captured trade that occurs between countries in the region.In that case relying on modeling assumptions based on gravity f

147、orces that have been verified in many contexts is an acceptable assumption.31 Finally,the model implemented here does not differentiate economic sectors and is therefore based on a single sector assumption.It favors geographic granularity,and all possible trade exchanges,at the expense of a more det

148、ailed economic structure.The two models complement one other,with different spatial,structural,and temporal perspectives.The market access(MA)model is a gravitational model,relying on city GDP to measure market access.The spatial general equilibrium(GE)model,by contrast,examines subnational units(or

149、 prefectures),32 incorporating land-use variables and GDP at the subnational level(including the agricultural sector).Thus,the MA model measures access between cities within Guinea and with other West African cities,while the spatial GE model focuses on access at the subnational(or prefecture)level

150、within Guinea and over the West African region.With the MA model,we focus on the gains to Guinean cities,and we use the GE model to make transnational comparisons.In addition,the MA model offers a static picture of the impacts of transportation infrastructure investments and reductions in border tim

151、e delays,while the spatial GE model is dynamic and allows for adjustments in wages and displacements of populations.Therefore,the former concentrates on immediate effects,while the later examines medium-to-long term general equilibrium effects.31.World Bank(2015).Women and trade in Africa:Realizing

152、the Potential32.For Guinea,the sub-national level used is the“prefecture”.Guinea is divided into 33 prefectures plus Conakry.29What opportunities?2.2 What do the results illustrate?.for infrastructure investmentsWhile Guinea appears to be one of the countries that benefits most from potential infras

153、tructure investments in the region,the impacts of such investments remain marginal.The spatial GE model highlights the large gains for Guinea compared to regional peers.While some countries such as Mauritania,Niger,and Mali lose out from infrastructure investments,in terms of relative comparative ad

154、vantage as economic activity moves across space,Guinea gains from all interventions.However,the gains are marginal,with a maximum of a 2.1 percent increase in real wages associated with the Conakry-Abidjan corridor,followed by the Conakry-Bamako and Lab-Dakar corridors.Gains on the Bamako-Monrovia c

155、orridor are minimal(Figure 3).Benefits from potential infrastructure investments in the region will remain marginal for Guinea,while some countries are expected to lose.FIGURE 3Gains in real wages(%)Bamako-ConakryBamako-MonroviaConakry-AbidjanDakar-Labe-1%01%2%3%GuineaOther countriesLiberiaCte dIvoi

156、reFrom connectivity to opportunity30Similarly,gains in market access from investments that focus exclusively on infrastructure are minimal,varying between 0 percent and 4 percent for Guinea and tend to be highly spatially segregated with cities located on the improved corridors benefiting from the l

157、argest increase in market access(Figure 4).The closer cities are from a corridor,the bigger the market access gain will be for them.FIGURE 4While overall gains linked to infrastructure investments are low,impacts are highly segregated spatially and improvements of corridors connecting Conakry to the

158、 eastern part of the country generate the highest gains in market access,resulting in larger gains for Nzrkor,Kankan,and Macenta(Figure 5).When considering average gains in market access per city for each corridor and average gains for each city,the three corridors of Conakry Abidjan 1,Conakry Abidj

159、an 2 and Bamako Conakry display the highest impact on Market Access with average gains per city above 1.5 percent for Guinea cities.Avg.market access gain(%)Avg gain1.651.231.160.94Below1 km1 to 75 km75 to 150 kmBeyond 150 km01.5%3%4.5%31What opportunities?In addition,when looking at the average imp

160、act of all scenarios for each city in Guinea,the three cities of Nzrkor,Kankan,and Macenta,located in the eastern part of the country experience the highest increases in market access(above+1.8percent).See Annex 3 for a more detailed description of the results.Improvements of corridors to the easter

161、n part of the country generate the highest gains in market access.FIGURE 5Les amliorations des corridors vers la partie orientale du pays gnrent les gains les plus importants en termes daccs au march.Average gain in market access(%)NzrkorKankanMacentaSiguiriGuckdougouKissidougouDinguirayeFaranahPita

162、LabMamouKindiaSangardiBokKamsarFriaConakry01%2%01%2%Conakry-Abidjan 1Conakry-Abidjan 2Bamako-ConakryConakry-MonroviaTAH7Dakar-ConakryConakry-BissauBamako-MonroviaBy corridorBy citiesFrom connectivity to opportunity32The spatial equilibrium model,which allows for wage adjustments and population displ

163、acement,also suggests that the spatial distribution of the effects is uneven.The central regions of Mamou and Kindia concentrate higher gains,linked to their proximity to the capital and the fact that both are located at the junction of several transport hubs.The differences in the results between b

164、oth models indicates that,while Nzrkor,Kankan,and Macenta would enjoy high gains in market access in the short term,the adjustments in wages and movements of populations will ultimately favor the more centrally located regions of Pita,Mamou and Kindia(Figure6).However,gains remain very low,barely ab

165、ove 2%.(Source:Lebrand 2019)3333.The model was computed at“prefecture”level for Guinea which corresponds to the second national administrative level.To ensure a relatively similar geographical granularity for each country.The second administrative level was chosen as the default level for all countr

166、ies except for The Gambia,Guinea-Bissau,Liberia,and Nigeria,for which the first administrative level(regions)was chosen as their size was the closest to the second administrative level units of other countries.Average gains in real wages from the spatial general equilibrium model considering only in

167、frastructure investments.FIGURE 61.5-2%2-2.5%1-1.5%0.5-1%Less than 0.5%Average wage gains33What opportunities?.and for trade facilitation measuresTime lost at the border or in transit remain large obstacles to accessing markets.Although the corridors under study connect and integrate the countries o

168、f the sub-region,they also serve to better connect cities within Guinea.In the models,the gains from improved transport infrastructure lead to improvements in access within countries rather than between countries.For example,in the market access model,for the Conakry-Monrovia,and the Bamako-Monrovia

169、 corridors,the gains in market access are limited on both the Liberian and Malian sides(lower than 2 percent)compared to the results obtained for cities in Guinea.Similar results emerge for the Conakry-Bissau corridor.Contrary to infrastructure improvements,the gains linked to trade facilitation mea

170、sures are much greater and have a more uniform impact across cities(Figure7).According to the MA model,10 percent,30 percent,and 50 percent reductions in border crossing delays are associated with gains in market access of 3 percent,9 percent,and 15 percent,respectively,for every city within Guinea.

171、Indeed,as displayed in Figure 6,gains for each scenario display very little variation across cities.Even with a 50 percent reduction,which is the scenario presenting the highest variation,the gap between the city with the highest gain and the city with the lowest gain is barely above 1 percentage po

172、int.From connectivity to opportunity34Similarly,with the spatial equilibrium model,gains in real wages are much larger from trade facilitation measures for each country and,regions in Guinea seem especially well positioned to benefit from those improvements(Figure 8).While infrastructure-only invest

173、ments generated a maximum of 2.1 percent increase in real wages,the combination with trade facilitation measures allows to reach gains above 8 percent.Besides,the variation in gains between corridors is much smaller with the reduction in border and transit delays than it is without(Figure9).Such fin

174、dings support the idea that the time a truck is idling while waiting for administrative procedures to be performed(at borders or at the terminals during loading or unloading)is as,or more important,than slower speed along the roads of the regions.34 The gains from reducing border delays would magnif

175、y the gains of necessary road upgrading.Both upgrading roads and more fluid borders are complementary investments to increase domestic and regional trade.34.Teravaninthorn,Supee and Gael Raballand,Transport Prices and Costs in Africa:A Review of the International Corridors.Num.6610.World Bank,2009.T

176、he gains linked to reduction in border crossing delays are much greater and have a more uniform impact across cities than infrastructure improvements.FIGURE 7Average gain in market access(%)Border delays reductions scenario:10%30%50%ConakrySiguiriNzrkorKankanMacentaGuckdougouKissidougouFaranahDingui

177、rayeLabMamouPitaKindiaFriaKamsarSangardiBok5%05%15%10%035What opportunities?(Source:Lebrand 2019)Gains in real wages are much larger from trade facilitation measures than road corridor investments and Guinea seem especially well positioned to benefit from those improvements.FIGURE 8Average gain in m

178、arket access(%)fromCorridor investmentsTrade facilitationLes gains en termes de salaires rels sont beaucoup plus importants dans le cadre des mesures de facilitation du commerce que dans celui des investissements dans les corridors routiers,et la Guine semble particulirement bien place pour bnficier

179、 de ces amliorations.4.351.52NigeriaCameroonCote dIvoireMauritaniaGhanaMaliBeninBurkina FasoGambiaNigerSenegalSierra LeoneGuineaTogoLiberiaGuinea-Bissau4.081.243.250.355.082.11Conakry-Abidjan Dakar-LabeBamako-Monrovia Bamako-Conakry From connectivity to opportunity36(Source:Lebrand 2019)GE Model:Spa

180、tial Gains in real wages from infrastructure investments:Bamako-Conakry corridor(in percent).FIGURE 9Without trade facilitation measuresWith trade facilitation measuresSpatial gains in real wages from infrastructure investments:Bamako-Conakry corridor(in percentage)20%10%0Guinea37What opportunities?

181、2.3 Summary of Results.The results from the models demonstrate that Guinean cities are well positioned to benefit from lower travel costs compared to cities in other countries.This is more a function of trade facilitation measures,rather than infrastructure investments alone.Results of both models i

182、ndicate that Guinea is one of the countries best positioned to benefit from improvements in infrastructure and trade facilitation.While the effect of infrastructure improvements without trade facilitation remains marginal,a combination of infrastructure improvements with a reduction in border and tr

183、ansit delays has a strong impact on real wages,generating significant gains in Guinea.Breaking the results down spatially within Guinea,while the cities in the eastern part of the country would benefit the most in terms of market access,once wages adjustments and movements of populations are account

184、ed for,it is the central parts of the country that display the highest gains.Finally,while model results are a good starting point to show the magnitude of untapped gains,deeper analyses at the sectoral level would be required to identify specific reform and investment opportunities.339What are the

185、constraints?This chapter evaluates the underlying constraints that limit the potential positive impacts of trade and transport policies and investments along the corridor.The potential impact of better connectivity for cities in Guinea will be determined jointly by improvements in trade facilitation

186、 and infrastructure investments and by initial conditions.These initial conditions include the existing institutional and policy environment impacting input and product markets.A special focus is on the dynamics of the local economies of secondary urban agglomerations,to help identify potential poli

187、cy interventions to magnify positive impacts associated with improvements in corridor connectivity.From connectivity to opportunity40As the previous chapter demonstrates,improvements in connectivity are likely to impact several cities in Guinea.Trade facilitation,however,favors larger cities,and tho

188、se closer to the border.Based on this analysis,several cities were chosen for deep-dive case studies.Case study cities were chosen following a set of selection criteria(detailed in Table2)and summarized below35:a.Market access results:All considered cities showed at least a 0.5 percent market access

189、 gain in the quantitative analysis.b.Regional coverage and population:Cities were chosen from across the top 10cities in Guinea by population,each with at least 250,000 in population,and to ensure coverage across all of Guineas natural regions.Conakry,the largest city,was excluded given that it has

190、been the focus of several other recent studies.c.Other factors:The chosen case study cities include a range of ethnic demographics from across Guinea.These cities also have a high incidence of poverty.In total,four case study cities were chosen for this analysis.Each of these cities can capitalize o

191、n local transport interventions due to location and a variety of other factors.Important factors that contributed to the choice of case studies,in addition to those shown in Table 2,are summarized below.Figure 10 shows the geographic location of these cities.a.Kankan:The second largest city in Guine

192、a,located along the transport corridor connecting Guinea to Mali,a major regional trading partner.35.Conakry was not considered a candidate for a case study because other studies have focused on its importance as the primary trade and financial center in Guinea.This body of work includes World Bank,

193、Republic of Guinea:Urbanization Review report,June 2018.Criteria for case studies,by city consideredTABLE 241What constraints?b.Mamou:Mamou is a smaller city,but one that is centrally located within Guinea and serves as a hub along most of the major corridors that pass through Guinea.c.Bok:As the ma

194、jor mining hub in Guinea,Bok was chosen due to its proximity to both the capital city of Conakry and the border with Guinea-Bissau.The analysis focused on the Sangaredi-Bok Centre-Kamsar corridor as this represents the travel corridor for mining goods passing through the region.d.Nzrkor:Nzrkor is lo

195、cated within the Forested Guinea region,on the border with Cte dIvoire and Liberia,and is therefore located on the main corridors connecting Conakry to Abidjan and Monrovia.Location of case study cities.FIGURE 10482 k199 kSecond largest city in Guinea,located along corridor leaving to MaliKankan460

196、k63 kMining city,close to Conakry and located on corridor to Guinea-BissauBok403 k198 kForest region,bordering Cte dIvoire and LiberiaNzrkor323 k84 kCentrally located,hub point for almost all major roads in GuineaMamouPopulation of urban center Total populationof prefectureMALICTE DIVORELIBERIASENEG

197、ALGUINEA-BISSAUSIERRA LEONEFigure 10Localisation des villes des tudes de casFrom connectivity to opportunity42The economic structure of the regions where each of these cities are located is representative of the massive agricultural potential of the country.FIGURE 11The economic structure of the reg

198、ions where each of these cities are located is representative of the massive agricultural potential of the country,with each region specializing in a range of different products.The prefectures of Mamou,Kankan,and Nzrkor have similar economic structures,with agriculture as the primary sector.While t

199、he Bok prefecture hosts important mining sector activities,the labor force still predominantly works in the agricultural sector,which underscores the potential of the agriculture and livestock sectors around this city as well.36 The following figure shows the sectoral breakdown of labor for all four

200、 cities.Each is characterized by several high potential agricultural products,but minimal value-added production or agro-processing exists.Several constraints hamper economic growth across the case study cities.These include a lack of spatial planning and coordinated investments,which contributes to

201、 urban fragmentation,poor and unequal access to public services,and,most importantly,a lack of capacity and financing at the local government level.Each of these constrains are discussed below in further detail.36.Stratgie dveloppement durable Bok,2018.Source:Recensement Gnral de la Population et de

202、 lHabitat(RGPH)2014Labor sectoral decomposition per prefectureAgricultureWholesale and retailManufacturingTransportationEducationConstructionOther58%16%6%5%3%2%9%Kankan73%11%5%3%2%2%4%Mamou50%17%7%5%3%3%15%Bok46%22%8%6%4%4%11%Nzrkor43What constraints?3.1 Agglomeration economies remain unrealized.Cit

203、ies have experienced rapid urban expansion since 1985,with on average,all four cities having doubled in size since 1985(Figure 12).This growth seems to have been especially large in the last years with 10 percent of Kankans total urban footprint having emerged from 2015 to 2019.While this rate of ur

204、ban expansion is high,it mirrors considerable expansion of other cities in the region as well.In comparison,the city of Freetown expanded by only 43 percent from 1975 to 2014,while the city of Bamako has grown to ten times its original size.Within the context of such urban expansion,however,the adeq

205、uate provisioning of public services becomes even more important.The speed of urban expansion has placed an even larger burden on public services because a large portion of this development has been fragmented,with major increases in the cities surface areas without direct contact with better servic

206、ed parts of the city.Figure 13 show the amount of urban built-up fragmentation over the last years in Kankan.Secondary cities have a considerably higher percentage of modern built-up(post-2000)than Conakry.FIGURE 12Source:WSFCurrent total built up recorded for each period(%)19%24%34%36%37%KankanBokN

207、zrkorMamouConakry5From connectivity to opportunity44At the same time,the urban core of these cities is characterized by the prominence of non-tradable activities,which are not conductive to significant economic growth.In each city,employment is dominated by non-tradable activities,mostly

208、wholesale and retail trade activities,which represent around 40 percent of employment in Kankan,Mamou,and Nzrkor,and 25 percent in Bok.As such,non-tradable activities represent around 70 to 80 percent of employment.Urban expansionFIGURE 13Source:WSFAs of2000201520191985BokKankanMamouNzrkor45What con

209、straints?Source:RGPH 2014The urban core of these cities is characterized by the prominence of non-tradable activities,which are not conductive to significant economic growth.FIGURE 14025%50%75%100%Wholesale and retailEducationConstructionPublic adminSocial servicesOtherTransportationManufacturingAgr

210、icultureOther servicesNon tradable servicesTradable servicesKankanMamouBokNzrkorLabor sectoral decomposition per sub-prefecture(urban core)Le noyau urbain de ces villes est caractris par la prdominance dactivits non commerciales,qui ne sont pas propices une croissance conomique significative.Figure

211、14From connectivity to opportunity46Tradables and the CityA firms business decision to produce internationally tradable goods and services will depend on its input costs.Among these input costs are urban costs:the added costs that workers face when living in a city.Urban costs include rent,commuting

212、 costs,and the high price of many goods.To attract workers,firms must raise wages to offset(or partially offset)these costs.Yet even as nominal wages climb to reflect high or rapidly rising urban costs,real wages remain low(see Chapter#4 for a detailed discussion).When urban costs drive nominal wage

213、s too high,firms cannot compete in the tradable sector and will produce only non-tradables.The non-tradable sector includes certain goods(for example local beer or cement),the construction trade,the retail trade,and many service sector activities,including informal sector employment.Demand for these

214、 goods and services comes from income generated within the city and its hinterland but also from income transferred from outside,such as resource rents,tax revenues,and foreign aid.The reason why a firm in a non-tradable sector can afford to pay higher wages while a firm in a tradable sector cannot

215、is that the non-tradable producer can raise its prices citywide.By doing so,it passes its own cost increases on to consumers in the urban market.But such price hikes make the cost of living in a city even higher,contributing to the workers urban costs.This sequence can become a vicious cycle that ke

216、eps African cities out of the tradable sector and limits their economic growth.Often,proposed solutions to Africas urban challenges focus simply on increased investments in structures or on reforming urban planning.These actions are necessary and urgent but by themselves are unlikely to lift cities

217、out of the non-tradables trap.Why?In addition to poorly designed national regulations and/or trade policies,coordination failures at the local level could inhibit the formation of new clusters of economic activity,which are necessary for efficient tradables production.Given the dynamics described ab

218、ove,no firm wants to be the first to enter the tradables sector.Yet many tradable firms would become established if they could coordinate their entry.To enable coordination,a city needs a credible coordination agent:either a forward-looking group of firms that can harmonize their plans and make a mo

219、ve together,or a large-scale land developer or municipal government that can realize its vision through major infrastructure investment.Sources:Henderson and Venables(2009);World Bank(2017):Africas Cities:Opening Doors to the World.BOXThe very low concentration of tradable activities is a sign of lo

220、w competitiveness,which can be linked to different factors,including the lack of reliable public services.For each city,the share of the population connected to the electrical grid is at best around 50 percent,while it can be as low as 18 percent in Nzrkor and 9percent in Kankan.Similarly,tap water(

221、either inside or outside the dwelling)is only accessible to 50 percent of the population in Kankan,and access is even lower in the other three cities.For example,only 17 percent of the population has access to tap water in Nzrkor.Moreover,access figures,while poor,disguise the extent of the problem,

222、since both the extent of and quality of access are extremely poor.For example,areas connected to the grid in Mamou and Nzrkor can reliably access power for only approximately six hours per day.In Kankan,the quality of access to electricity is even worse,with reliable access limited to about two hour

223、s per day.47What constraints?Source:RGPH 2014Lack of reliable public services is a contributing factor to the very low concentration of tradable activities,which is a sign of low competitiveness.FIGURE 15The limited access to public services makes more scarce serviced land,which businesses need to o

224、perate.Only a small portion of each city is connected to the electrical grid or to the water network.In Kankan,access to water and electricity are extremely segregated geographically with under 15 percent of the total built up area being in zones with an access to electricity above 20 percent(Figure

225、 16).Therefore,new business owners are often forced to the periphery of the city since land in the urban center is unavailable.Allotments of serviced land are often based on a non-transparent process,according to several local business owners in both cities.To service land in these more remote locat

226、ions,businesses must invest in generators and drill wells to ensure access to electricity and water.Getting other supplies to these remote locations is also hindered by the lack of access roads,and poor maintenance of those access roads when they exist.Share of population with access to each source

227、of electricity(top)and water(bottom)Le manque de services publics fiables est un facteur contribuant la trs faible concentration des activits commercialisables,signe dune faible comptitivit.Connected to the grid(EDG)|Oil lamp,gas lamp,wood|Generator|Solar panel|OtherElectricityTap water outside|Tap

228、water(in-house)|Public fountain|Well drilling|Ordinary well|Surface water|Mineral water KankanMamouBokNzrkor51%46%17%10%30%25%20%11%21%17%13%5%3%4%2%2%BokKankanMamouNzrkorWaterFrom connectivity to opportunity48Geographical coverage of electricity and water public services in Kankan.FIGURE 16Access t

229、o electricityAccess to waterLe Milo60-80%Above 80%40-60%20-40%Below 20%49What constraints?As such,lack of access to both electricity and running water provisions was continually cited as a major constraint across case study cities.Agro-processing is constrained by a lack of public services,including

230、 infrastructure for electricity and running water,and a scarcity of serviced land.This was also highlighted in the recently published Guinea Country Private Sector Diagnostic.Firms in all four cities noted that electricity was one of their most major costs and that this cost,and the required investm

231、ent in generators,prevented their firms expansion and the development of new processing centers.As explained by the owner of an agro-processing factory,“Running my generator every day is very expensive,but without it,there wouldnt even be a factory”.The aforementioned electricity and running water c

232、onstraints extend to the large-scale preservation of agricultural products,which is further hindered by a lack of cold storage options(both warehouses and transport).For the livestock sector,few slaughterhouses exist for processing,and the cost of both electricity and water provisioning constrains t

233、he development of new factories.This also applies to mining companies,which highlighted public services as one of the primary constraints for larger mining firms evaluating potential investments in Forested Guinea around Nzrkor.All the case study cities also highlight that communities on the outskir

234、ts of the cities are not connected to the electricity grid or the cities water pipelines.Even for those communities that are connected to the grid and water pipelines,access is available only for part of the day(approximately 6-12 hours,depending on the city and neighborhood),and sometimes restricte

235、d to only certain days of the week.The insufficient provision of public services can be linked to a wider lack of spatial planning.The share of gridiron(see Box 2)can be used as a metric to measure the level of spatial planning in each city.By comparing the four selected cities to other cities in th

236、e region,it is evident that spatial planning has been insufficient,with Nzrkor,Bok,and Mamou displaying shares of gridiron below 10 percent.This reflects irregular road network layouts,the consequence of inadequate and inexistent urban planning,which,as discussed earlier,imposes costs on mobility fo

237、r firms and households,and on the provision of essential services.From connectivity to opportunity50Source:Authors calculations and Baruah,Henderson and Peng(2017)Compared to other cities in the region,it is evident that spatial planning has been insufficient in the four selected cities with Nzrkor,

238、Bok,and Mamou below 10 percent.FIGURE 17Share of gridiron per city56%50%47%46%42%38%31%28%27%11%29%8%7%5%Bobo-Diou.ToubaOuagadougouNdjamenaBrazzavilleNiameyAbidjanKankanBamakoConakryDoualaNzrkorMamouBok51What constraints?Gridiron methodology to measure spatial planningThe gridiron methodology was us

239、ed to generate a metric related to spatial planning for each city.It is based on the use of OSM data(of the road network)which is then categorized based on the rectangularity index of each block.Simply put,to be a gridiron block,a block must have a rectangularity index greater or equal to 0.9.See fi

240、gures below.This method is based on Baruah,Henderson and Peng(2017).Gridiron illustration in Kankan and MamouKankan Mamou:BOX 2The complexity and rigidity of land markets plays a significant role in the lack of planning and inefficient use of land.While a formal land tenure system with transferable

241、ownership rights exists in some parts of the country,most of Guineas tenure systems and types are based on informal and customary law.The customary tenure structures include a range of tenure forms,including individual and communal ownership,use rights,and pastoralist rights.The complexity and opaci

242、ty of these laws results in very rigid land markets,which discourages efficient land use,resulting in lower urban density and lower potential tax revenues from efficient tax collection.Mamou road networkKankan road networkNon-gridironPrimary roadsGridironLocal roadsFrom connectivity to opportunity52

243、3.2 Low connectivity and poor infrastructure also constrain efficient development.Potential agricultural and other exports are hampered by poor road maintenance and the lack of available cold storage equipment and infrastructure.Beyond public services,the most important constraints for potential gro

244、wth in the agriculture sector are the poor overall connectivity and lack of key infrastructure(such as cold storage).This is linked to the lack of serviced land because electricity is required to operate cold storage equipment.While land that is not serviced is generally available,those parcels are

245、also often not well connected to the main markets and surrounded by poor quality road infrastructure.Road quality data collected along the Conakry-Kankan corridor(Figure 18)highlights the very low quality and density of bumps along that corridor.As can be seen,there are extensive areas with high bum

246、p density and some sections of the corridor,such as the Mamou-Dabola section,display very poor quality with 26 percent of the road in poor or very poor condition.53What constraints?Road quality on each section of the Conakry-Kankan corridor(December 2020)FIGURE 18Road bump densityFairPoorVerypoorGoo

247、dVery goodKindia-MamouQualityConarky-KindiaMamou-DabolaDabola-KankanConarkyKindiaMamouDabolaKankanQualit des routes sur chaque section du corridor Conakry-Kankan(dcembre 2020)Figure 18From connectivity to opportunity543.3 The mayors wedge in Guinean cities is small.Local initiatives undertaken by ci

248、ties in Guinea are impeded by both(i)a small administrative remit and(ii)limited capability to implement that remit.Both capacity and legal constraints impede local government policy initiatives.In other words,the mayors wedge,or the policy remit available to local leaders,is small.Under the Code Co

249、mmunale,communes(or sub-prefectures)have fourteen distinct local administration powers,including the ability to provide for small-scale public services and infrastructure provisions,such as the rehabilitation of school and hospital buildings.One of the main powers provided to local governments(LGs)i

250、s the development and administration of annual investment plans for local asset inventory and maintenance,although these plans are subject to central government approval.However,despite the powers explicitly decentralized under the Code Communale,in practice,local governments are highly dependent on

251、 national government structures operating at the local level.Interviews with the local prefectures and sub-prefectures across case study cities cited that the mayors offices consistently reach out to the prefet(which is directly appointed by the president and represents the national government local

252、ly)for support in managing local assets and small-scale public services.Within local government offices,an attitude of expecting the state to lead policy permeates the culture;discussions often centered on statements beginning with phrases such as“Ltat doit faire37”.Additionally,corruption and extre

253、me bureaucracy within local governments were cited as major challenges in interviews with business owners.Transfers related to the mining sector is one exception where the central government has transferred funds to local communes,with real transfers enabling the development of new infrastructure.38

254、 For example,the National Local Development Fund(Fonds National de Dveloppement Local,FNDL)is a US$50million fund raised through mining revenues being allocated across communes around the country as part of an overall national strategy to support community infrastructure and capacity.This fund is ad

255、ministered by the National Agency for Local Government Financing(Agence Nationale de Financement des Collectivits,ANAFIC)and receives 15 percent of national mining revenues and reallocates them to local governments.This reallocation is based on each local governments Annual Investment Plan(AIP),deve

256、loped through a community-based consultation process.The Local Economic Development Funds(Fonds de Dveloppement Economique Local,FODELs)are currently only available for communes in the vicinity of a mine,but there are plans to merge these into the FNDL.The intention is that these combined funds will

257、 increase considerably local government access to financing for public services but will be available only in those communes that demonstrate participatory budgeting,participatory monitoring,and a citizens feedback mechanism.37.Translated The national government should do38.Guinea Country Private Se

258、ctor Diagnostic(CPSD,2020)and UNECA(2009).Finances publiques locales:Expriennce Guinenne.Link55What constraints?Despite national funds used to provide allocations to local governments,municipalities remain constrained by a lack of financing for investments.The Local Authorities Code settles the prin

259、ciple of a financial transfer between the central government and the local communities based mainly on a global allocation covering operating expenses.In theory,the system should compensate for the increase in charges borne by local authorities:the amount established in the finance law is subsequent

260、ly indexed to GDP or readjusted in the event of transfer of new responsibilities.However,in practice,transfers of resources from the central government to the LGs have often been based on opaque rules,making them volatile and uncertain,especially in terms of timing.Financial transfers were linked to

261、 operations and primarily concerned rebates granted by the central government(specific subsidies,operating subsidies).Therefore,often,communities do not benefit much from these transfers.457What should be done?From connectivity to opportunity58Improvement in internal and external connectivity,via ec

262、onomic corridors,has the potential to bring large benefits to urban areas in Guinea.To reiterate the objective provided at the outset,the study aims to disentangle the effect of possible improvements along the chosen corridors on specific cities(or regions)in Guinea,and how local and national policy

263、 makers might put in place interventions to amplify positive effects of connectivity investments.As demonstrated in Chapter2,improvements in trade facilitation and investments in transport corridors could support local economies,increasing opportunities for trade across the country.In Chapter 3,the

264、initial conditions within these secondary urban agglomerations was further explored via multiple case studies,with the constraints to harnessing the opportunities identified.Given competing demands on fiscal resources,whether at the national or local levels,how should cities and regions prepare for

265、the opportunities and minimize any shocks to their local economies and households?This section outlines the policy recommendations following from the research:what should be done,by whom,and how.It delves into providing more concrete actions for how each recommendation can be actioned,including the

266、key actors involved.This section is organized as follows:a.What policy interventions should be pursued and why?Policy interventions that have the potential to maximize the gains associated with potential investments and activities to increase internal and external integration.These interventions hav

267、e been categorized according to the Competitive Cities framework,39 and prioritized(in Table 3 below)as follows:i)Necessary actions-actions that respond to impacts that are very likely to occur with increased connectivity(increased through traffic,population growth,overall growth of private sector a

268、ctivity etc.),or are needed to avert very negative consequences.ii)Desirable actions-actions that are associated with probable but not guaranteed impacts of increased connectivity(e.g.,increases in FDI in the manufacturing sector),or considered highly beneficial considering the overall development t

269、rajectory of the city or cities).iii)Strategic bets-actions aiming to capitalize on the impacts of increased connectivity that are highly uncertain(impacts on a logistics cluster,agro-processing industry).b.How and by whom?For each of the policy interventions,the focus is on how such an intervention

270、 could be implemented,including the key actors involved,including local,regional,and national government.39.The Competitive Cities framework is used to categorize the recommended interventions as relating to:(i)Institutions and Regulations;(ii)Infrastructure and Land;(iii)Skills and Innovation;and(i

271、v)Enterprise Support and Finance59What should be done?4.1 Institutions and Regulations.Full implementation of the national framework PPP law and the establishment of a new specialized unit to help advance the many pipeline PPP projects will be vital to lay the foundation for solidifying the gains fr

272、om private investment activity.Economic gains from connectivity investments hinge on attracting increased investment,which necessitates an appropriate legal framework within which investors can participate,making this a high priority necessary action.Such a framework has recently been approved by Pa

273、rliament;however,a concerted effort will be required to implement this,including operationalization of the organizations needed for the proper functioning of the law.40 Appropriate implementation of this framework will help to ensure that Guinean cities are able to capture potential investments as c

274、onnectivity improvements are planned and implemented.For example,both Bok and Nzrkor have a high potential for growth in the palm oil value chain.In Bok,the initial investment required to begin harvesting approximately 20millionliters of palm oil is US$30-40 million,yielding an annual revenue in the

275、 range of US$25million.41 A proper framework for receiving and overseeing such an investment at the national level would help to both attract the investment and manage the ongoing relationship with the investor.Such a framework would also help to improve investment protection and retention.Although

276、large-scale infrastructure is managed at the national level,improving local government capacity through a combination of technical and financial support alongside reforms to increase local government functions and responsibilities will help allow for increased investment at the local level.For examp

277、le,communes that can plan and manage local assets and increase sources of own-source revenues will be able to reinvest these revenues,thus improving the state of local infrastructure and public services.For instance,communes manage the quality of local services such as health,education,and potable w

278、ater;improvements in these services are likely to increase attractiveness of the area for new businesses and potential investments.The first step toward improved capacity for own-source revenues is developing asset inventories,followed by exploring revenue mechanisms such as increasing tariffs and t

279、axes and/or building a better fiscal cadaster to improve coverage and collection.While this is not necessary for increased investment,improvements to local government capacity are a second-tier priority.Programs to strengthen local government capacity should also include management of own-source rev

280、enue,digitalization,and better administration and maintenance of existing assets.These needs were underscored by local governments across the case study cities,given their scarce knowledge of how to invest and manage their revenues.This lack of capacity extends to the LGs ability to administer,maint

281、ain,and manage local assets,including maintenance of the local road network and public service provisions.For example,the electricity and water networks in Sangaredi were financed and constructed by mining companies operating locally;however,neither the mining companies nor the relevant LGs can mana

282、ge this infrastructure effectively.40.Guinea Country Private Sector Diagnostic(CPSD),2020.41.Stratgie de dveloppement durable Bok,2018.From connectivity to opportunity60LGs also lack access to adequate IT and digital technology.For example,local government offices in Mamou have outdated IT infrastru

283、cture,with multiple employees required to share one computer.In mining regions,LG support should include better planning for mining investments,support to better enforce environmental and social requirements,and better communications regarding local content.Better planning can be used to attract and

284、 improve engagement with potential investors.LGs also expressed a need to improve the enforcement of environmental and social consultations and impact assessments.Currently such consultations and assessments are required,but meetings with LGs highlighted the fact that follow-through and enforcement

285、in these areas has been limited.Lack of knowledge and understanding related to local content requirements for mining contracts also contributes to civil instabilityan important contributing factor to the frequent political protests in the Bok region.Better communication and citizen engagement on the

286、 nature of local content requirements,along with how such contracts are issued and managed,would help to address this problem.Better engagement on local content also pertains to how LGs manage their relationships with mining companies operating locally.To support high potential industries such as ag

287、riculture and livestock,national standards and an associated certification process ought to be developed.This involves setting up a national standards bureau,along with investments in laboratories to allow for product testing.Currently export companies are required to pay for sending their testing s

288、amples to other countries within the wider West African region.As such,ideally standards testing laboratories should be decentralized across the different regions in Guinea so that local companies are not required to transport their goods abroad or to Conakry for testing.In the short term,this probl

289、em could be addressed through subsidies to offset the cost of shipping these samples,which could be administered through the local government budget,or existing funding structures such as the FNDL.Supporting access to required standards and certifications will help to improve competition as part of

290、a broader set of trade reforms,a strategic bet to support these sectors.Regional meetings,such as within ECOWAS,take place to support and improve regional regulations.Improved conflict resolution and grievance redress systems within such bodies would help to improve overall operations and,as such,be

291、tter facilitate regional trade.Better traceability systems would also help to particularly improve standards and certification processes,along with investments in cold chain and other storage facilities at key trade points.Use of one-stop shops at such trade points to facilitate export and import do

292、cumentation would also help to facilitate trade,especially for key agricultural products.Such measures should also be accompanied by training for local actors to ensure that they are able to address and navigate these types of systems.The World Bank Program for Food Security and Resilience in West A

293、frica(Programme de Rsilience du Systme Alimentaire de lAfrique de lOuest,FSRP)aims to support this type of improved regional integration by strengthening capacity to prevent and manage food crises,promote agricultural resilience and productivity,and improve market integration and development of food

294、 value chains within the region.While the programs first phase does not include Guinea,Guinea will be included in the following phase.Detailed value chain analyses should be undertaken to understand better the sectors where Guinea has a competitive advantage and how development of these sectors coul

295、d be supported by the Government.The Guinea Agribusiness Deep Dive(2018)and Guinea CPSD(2020)highlighted several potential agribusiness value chains that Guinea could develop,such as:mangoes,pineapples,fonio,rice,coffee,and eggs.More analysis is needed to understand the opportunities and constraints

296、 to developing these chains and establishing agro-logistics poles in Guineas main secondary cities,based on their connectivity,availability of human capital and supportive public services,and regulatory barriers.Such analyses should also quantify the time and financial costs associated with distinct

297、 parts of the agricultural export chains.61What should be done?The analyses could also evaluate the potential for agro-logistics development in secondary cities to generate transformational impacts on the local economies by reducing poverty,increasing inclusion,and the number of wage-paying formal j

298、obs,especially for women.The full implementation of a single window system for customs to facilitate trade(in Conakry and at land borders around the country)would support firms across industries,alleviating constraints on both the import and the export side.Firms with better access to capital can pa

299、y high rates for international shipping companies to facilitate product exports.These shipping agents provide considerable support in dealing with requirements for trade,yet,the process is slow and cumbersome.For smaller firms,such services are out of reach,limiting their export potential despite de

300、mand.For example,a local jam and juice processor noted that,based on informal discussions with potential distributors and supermarkets,there is considerable demand for their product within the wider West African region,but they are unable to export because of the widespread and unclear trade require

301、ments.On the import side,firms setting up industrial facilities must source most of their equipment abroad,and these imports can face considerable delays at customs.Since this equipment is essential to the setup of operations,long timeframes represent lost revenue,which could drive some firms out of

302、 business and/or delay their ability to service buyer contracts.A single window system would streamline the timing of these processes and provide a single location for all trade-related queries to be dealt with.As such,implementation of this action is a highly desirable action to support multiple se

303、ctors in Guinea.This type of system is in the process of being implemented in Conakry and has already demonstrated major increases in customs royalties;in January 2021,customs royalties totaled at about 8.4 billion Guinean francs relative to 370millionGuinean francs in January 2020.Expansion of this

304、 system to other border cities is envisioned in the near term,including Kamsar in the Sangaredi-Bok-Kamsar corridor,Dieke on the border with Cote DIvoire,and Kouremal on the border with Mali.The Kamsar and Diecke locations will benefit Bok and Nzrkor due to their proximity to these locations.While K

305、ankan is not a border city,it is likely to benefit from the Koremal single window due to its location on the corridor connecting Guinea to Mali.In addition to the various trade facilitation recommendations discussed here,broader support to trade policy and border reforms would further help complemen

306、t transport infrastructure.42 While such reforms would normally include a look at tariffs,non-tariff barriers,and regional trade agreements,this is not feasible given ECOWAS restrictions.However,implementation of trade policy reforms that support better competition policy,especially in the logistics

307、 and services sectors,could help to address the constraints and skills gaps that apply across sectors.For example,improving transport services would contribute to cost reductions for production of tradeable goods,including high potential sectors such as agriculture,livestock,and fishing.The logistic

308、s sector in Guinea is currently dominated by transport unions,which generally control the transport of both goods and passengers.43 Measures to improve investment protection and retention,discussed at a more detailed level in the enterprise support and finance section,also fall under broader trade p

309、olicy reforms that would complement transport infrastructure.As indicated in the quantitative analysis,border reforms would support the development of secondary cities in Guinea.These reforms could include better collaboration among border agencies for more integrated border management,along with th

310、e reengineering of customs processes and procedures to simplify border crossing.Prior to any such actions,however,a detailed assessment of the current border processes would be required to identify the most important interventions and how these could be put in place.42.Mattoo,Aaditya;Rocha,Nadia;Rut

311、a,Michele.2020.The Evolution of Deep Trade Agreements.Policy Research Working Paper;No.9283.World Bank,Washington,DC.Link43.Based on interviews conducted with the Syndicat des Transporteurs in Mamou,Guinea.From connectivity to opportunity624.2 Infrastructure and Land.Cities in Guinea can capitalize

312、on opportunities from connectivity improvements with better spatial planning,including coordinated land use and connective infrastructure.This entails improving the inventory of public land,buildings,and infrastructure,with later improvements to the legal cadaster.Such an inventory would allow for b

313、etter provisioning of public services and a more seamless urban expansion,two important requisites for a city to absorb economic growth.Urban planning and coordinated land use management play an important role in identifying and executing the most needed investments in basic public services and infr

314、astructure,along with proper operations and maintenance practices.Urban development plans also present a vision and strategy for a citys investments,along with potential interventions to reach that vision,and help to foster community engagement and decision making processesall of which support bette

315、r public service planning and delivery,especially within the context of urban population growth.As such,this is a highly desirable action to address constraints to investment.Most secondary cities in Guinea have outdated or unenforced urban master plans,with local governments generally not making us

316、e of such documents.This has important financial repercussions as providing infrastructure and public services is far more expensive if implemented as part of upgrading informal settlements as opposed to planned infrastructure and land use.For example,an upgrade program in Tunisia to reduce slum hou

317、sing required massive investments in water and sewage infrastructure,which could have been reduced with better prior urban planning development.44 A major factor contributing to the poor current state of public services across secondary cities in Guinea is that the current allocation of public servi

318、ces was either unplanned or planned for much smaller populations,and this planning has not kept up with the cities growth.For example,the electricity network in Sangaredi was built for a population of 10-15 thousand;Sangaredis population now exceeds 65 thousand.Similarly,the water infrastructure in

319、Nzrkor was constructed in 1972;since then the population has tripled,leaving the installed capacity inadequate for the growth of the city.Updates to relevant land codes,including within rural areas,is also crucial for local economic development.Local government officials across the case study cities

320、 highlighted the need to update the Code Foncier,which currently only deals with urban areas.In addition to updating the code itself,better communication campaigns and education is required for the local population and potential/current investors to meet its requirements.Rural populations lack aware

321、ness of the regulatory,security,and other requirements associated with land ownership.This informational asymmetry also contributes to land-related conflict,particularly between individuals operating in the agriculture,livestock,and mining sectors.Rationalization and updating of the Code Pastorale,w

322、hich has not been updated since 1989,would also help to improve this situation.44.Avner,P.and Mukim,M.2019.“Guinea Urban Sector Review:Planning,Connecting,Financing in Conakry”,World Bank Group.Link63What should be done?Investments aimed at upgrading road quality and better maintenance will also be

323、needed.Better transport connectivity to cities would improve links between local producers and markets at the center of the city.This is particularly relevant for strategic bets in the agriculture and livestock sectors since producers in rural areas must be able to access urban markets to sell their

324、 goods.Road improvements will also be required to allow for the transport of high value-added perishable goods,especially those that can be exported through Conakrys port and need efficient cold chain logistics.Such investments are part of a suite of necessary improvements to local public services,m

325、aking them high priority actions.Investments to improve the road network would also allow for easier access to markets.This applies both to improving access roads to rural areas,particularly agricultural production zones,along with investments in construction of larger connecting roads.Given Guineas

326、 wide geographic spread,decisions around how and where to invest in the road network should be strategically planned.This especially applies to planning for access road improvements.Such investments can be chosen strategically to support specific high potential value chains by connecting production

327、zones to points of sale.Alternatively,decisions on access road investments could also be driven by the local population,to increase connectivity to rural areas with the largest population,greatest need,etc.Additionally,the seasonal rains across different regions make Guinean cities more vulnerable t

328、o economic losses associated with flooding.A study on the impact of flooding in Kinshasa demonstrates that flood disruptions have substantial economic costs due to channels such as transit re-routing,decreases in travel speeds,and the reduced accessibility to jobs.This study estimates the daily cost

329、 of flood disruption to commuter travel in Kinshasa at US$1.2 million.45 Guinean cities face similar issues,and likely similar costs;during the rainy system,traversing a distance of 2km can take over an hour due to flooding and congestion on roads in the city of Nzrkor.46 Addressing this issue will

330、require both investments to upgrade road quality and improved maintenance practices.To accommodate growth opportunities,cities in Guinea need to increase the availability of serviced land as a necessary action to alleviate critical investment constraints.First,this entails reducing and improving reg

331、ulations around land use,including streamlining the purchase and use of private land for potential investors.This could involve improving tenure security and the overall cadaster,along with reducing the number of steps and the costs associated with acquiring land.Improved tenure security in Senegal

332、implemented under the 2011 Land Tenure Act has allowed for conversion of temporary occupancy permits in urban areas into permanent title deeds at no cost,thus helping to increase activity in the formal land market,increase housing investments,and improve access to housing finance;these improvements

333、in the land market also apply to businesses.47 This streamlining applies across sectors and will help to incentivize investments.Such provisions also provide support to investment protection and retention,thus supporting better competition policy as part of a broader set of trade reforms.45.He,Yiyi,Stephan Thies,Paolo Avner,and Jun Rentschler,The Impact of Flooding on Urban Transit and Accessibili