1、Copyright 2019 GSM Association The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2019 The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, uniting more than 750 operators with nearly 400 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, including handset and device makers, software companies, equipment providers

2、 and internet companies, as well as organisations in adjacent industry sectors. The GSMA also produces the industry-leading MWC events held annually in Barcelona, Los Angeles and Shanghai, as well as the Mobile 360 Series of regional conferences. For more information, please visit the GSMA corporate

3、 website at Follow the GSMA on Twitter: GSMA GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile operator data, analysis and forecasts, and publisher of authoritative industry reports and research. Our data covers every operator group, network and MVNO in every country worldwide from Afghani

4、stan to Zimbabwe. It is the most accurate and complete set of industry metrics available, comprising tens of millions of individual data points, updated daily. GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators, vendors, regulators, financial institutions and third-party industry players, to suppor

5、t strategic decision-making and long-term investment planning. The data is used as an industry reference point and is frequently cited by the media and by the industry itself. Our team of analysts and experts produce regular thought-leading research reports across a range of industry topics. Content

6、s EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2 1THE MOBILE MARKET IN NUMBERS8 1.1370 million new subscribers by 20259 1.25G launches begin, but 4G dominates10 1.3Consumers continue transition from connected to digital14 1.4Financial outlook improving, and 5G investment begins in earnest17 2MOBILE CONTRIBUTING TO ECONOMIC GRO

7、WTH AND ADDRESSING SOCIAL CHALLENGES 18 2.1Mobile contribution to economic growth19 2.2Expanding the benefits of the mobile internet22 2.3Mobile delivering social impact25 3KEY TRENDS SHAPING DIGITAL SOCIETIES27 3.15G: looking beyond the hype28 3.2Payments platforms gain traction across Asia Pacific

8、31 3.3Identity is essential to a digital society34 3.4Startups driving innovation and opportunities for collaboration37 4POLICIES FOR DIGITAL ADVANCEMENT40 4.1Laying the regulatory groundwork for 5G41 4.2Promoting trust, trade and innovation42 4.3A new approach to policy setting43 5G is here, but 4G

9、 still has room for growth 370 million new mobile subscribers to be added by 2025 5G is finally a reality. Following a commercial launch in South Korea earlier in 2019, five more countries will have launched 5G networks by the end of the year. A further 10 are expected to launch in 2020. To support

10、this generational shift and drive consumer engagement in the digital era, Asian mobile operators will invest more than $570 billion between 2018 and 2025. A significant proportion of this ($370 billion) will be spent on 5G deployments. Some countries, particularly the more developed markets seeking

11、to be global leaders in 5G (South Korea, Japan, Singapore and Australia) will see relatively rapid 5G growth: across developed Asia, 5G will account for half of total mobile connections by 2025. Across the rest of the region, the 5G opportunity is more long term, largely because there is still a lot

12、 of headroom for 4G (which will remain the dominant mobile technology across the region). It is unclear whether people in many of the regions emerging markets will potentially pay more for a 5G service, particularly when 4G will meet their needs in the majority of cases. The focus for these markets

13、is to push advancements in areas such as digital commerce and payments, identity and cross- ecosystem collaboration to help create the digital societies of the future. At the end of 2018, 2.8 billion people in Asia Pacific subscribed to mobile services, accounting for 67% of the population. The regi

14、on has been the biggest contributor to global subscriber growth in recent years, with 466 million new subscribers added since 2014 (representing an average annual growth rate of 4.7% the second highest behind Sub-Saharan Africa). More than half the worlds mobile subscribers live in Asia Pacific most

15、ly in China and India. However, growth is slowing, and the regions annual average subscriber growth rate out to 2025 will fall behind MENA and Latin America. This is due to three key factors: Asia Pacific is home to some of the most penetrated markets in the world, with minimal opportunity for furth

16、er subscriber growth the region also includes markets with very low penetration levels, where socioeconomic issues such as rapid population growth, poverty, inequality, unplanned urbanisation and natural disasters create barriers to mobile adoption some markets have seen their previously strong grow

17、th stagnate due to the challenges of connecting those still unconnected, particularly poorer and rural communities. Nevertheless, Asia Pacific will account for more than half of new subscribers globally by 2025: by this time, we forecast 370 million new subscribers to be connected across the region,

18、 bringing the total to 3.1 billion, or 72% of the population. Around 90% of these new subscribers will come from six countries: India, China, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh and the Philippines. Executive Summary The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2019 Executive Summary 2 Mobile continues to make a sig

19、nificant contribution to socioeconomic development across the region. In 2018, mobile technologies and services in Asia Pacific generated $1.6 trillion of economic value (5.3% of GDP) a contribution that will surpass $1.9 trillion by 2023 as countries increasingly benefit from the improvements in pr

20、oductivity and efficiency brought about by the increased take-up of mobile services. Further ahead, 5G technologies are expected to contribute almost $900 billion to the regions economy over the next 15 years. The connectivity gap also continues to close. Over the next seven years, 850 million peopl

21、e across Asia Pacific will start using the mobile internet for the first time, bringing the total number of mobile internet users in the region to 2.7 billion by 2025 (62% of the population). This growth in connectivity is helping the mobile industry increase its impact across all the UNs Sustainabl

22、e Development Goals and is spurring adoption of mobile- based tools and solutions (for example, in agriculture, education and healthcare) that aim to improve livelihoods in low- to middle-income countries. The size and diversity of the region mean countries are at different stages of digital develop

23、ment. Consequently, the policy frameworks for a digital society vary as national governments address their own unique challenges. For some markets, 2019 will see 5G become a reality. On the path to 5G, governments and regulatory authorities have a choice: actively shape a favourable business environ

24、ment that allows mobile operators to roll out 5G more quickly and broadly (spectrum allocation is a key priority), or wait until operators can justify 5G deployment under current regulatory conditions (which risks holding back the digital advancement of the country). For many countries in the region

25、, where 5G deployments are several years away, focus lies on other critical components such as payments and identity. Governments will need to ensure they continue to develop policies that are modernised and relevant, and which foster trust in the digital environment. The rapid growth of mobile acro

26、ss the region highlights the need for governments to adapt their policy development: an agile, whole-of-government approach is required to accelerate and provide a more inclusive digital society. Mobile boosting economic and social development Enabling policies for digital advancement The Mobile Eco

27、nomy Asia Pacific 2019 Executive Summary 3 Asia Pacifi c Unique mobile subscribers SIM connections Operator revenues Excluding cellular IoT 4.2bn 2.8bn 3.1bn 1.8% Mobile internet users 1.9bn 2.7bn PENETRATION RATE 2018 2018 2018 2018 20252025 $400bn $433bn 2.1% CAGR 201825 CAGR 201825 5.5% (% of pop

28、ulation) 72% 101% PENETRATION RATE (% of population) 111% 4.8bn 2025 2025 CAGR 201825 Operator capex of $574 billion for the period 20182025 64% of which will be on 5G 10m directly supported by the mobile ecosystem 45% PENETRATION RATE (% of population) 62% 2018 67% Source: GSMA Intelligence *Depend

29、ent territories rather than independent states Plus 8 million indirect jobs Jobs EmploymentPublic funding Mobile ecosystem contribution to public funding (before regulatory and spectrum fees) $1.9tn $1.6tn Mobile industry contribution to GDP $165bn 2018 2023 Percentage of connections 2018 2018 2018

30、20252025 $400bn 3.5bn 11.0bn $433bn 2.1% CAGR 201825 CAGR 201825 5.5% (% of population) 72% 101% PENETRATION RATE (% of population) 111% 4.8bn 2025 5.3% 10m directly supported by the mobile ecosystem 45% PENETRATION RATE (% of population) 62% 2018 Excluding licensed cellular IoT of total connections

31、 5G connections in 2025 845m (18% of total connections) 2018 2018 2025 61% 83% 2018 52% 2025 2025 Smartphone connections4G connections IoT connections 68% Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding INDIA JAPAN SOUTH KOREA CHINA MALAYSIA PHILIPPINES VIETNAM INDONESIA KEY MARKETS IN ASIA PAC

32、IFIC The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2019 Executive Summary 6 Note: totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding. 2018 2018 2025 2025 81% 69% 84% 88% China SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION Indonesia 2018 2018 2025 2025 64% 71% 69% 89% SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION TECHNOLOGY

33、MIX 5G 4G 2G 3G 5G 4G 2G 3G 2025 72% 28% TECHNOLOGY MIX 16% 7% 2018 2025 76% 2018 39% 44% 17% 6% 15% 79% South Korea 2018 2018 2025 2025 87% 85% 89% 92% SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION Philippines 2018 2018 2025 2025 64% 68% 71% 68% SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION TECHNOLOGY MI

34、X 2018 20252025 2G 3G 5G 4G 2G 3G 5G 4G TECHNOLOGY MIX 10%2% 84% 16% 40% 26% 39% 64% 59% 14% 66% 20% 2018 SMARTPHONE ADOPTION Japan 2018 2018 2025 2025 85% 64% 87% 88% SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION Malaysia 2018 2018 2025 2025 80% 77% 82% 86% SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION TECHNOLOGY MIX 202520

35、25 2G 3G 5G 4G 2G 3G 5G 4G TECHNOLOGY MIX 49% 50% 1% 1% 82% 2018 17% 20%1% 79% 2018 13% 59% 28% India 2018 2018 2025 2025 55% 54% 63% 78% SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION Vietnam 2018 2018 2025 2025 75% 25% 77% 77% SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION TECHNOLOGY MIX 20252025 2G 3G 5G

36、 4G 2G 3G 5G 4G TECHNOLOGY MIX 6% 5% 7% 53% 77% 36% 10% 7% 2018 16% 39% 45% 2018 8% 37% 55% The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2019 Executive Summary 7 01 The mobile market in numbers The mobile market in numbers 8 The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2019 1.1 370 million new subscribers by 2025 Subscriber

37、growth past its peak and slowing; but there will still be over 3.1 billion subscribers by 2025 Source: GSMA IntelligenceFigure 1 Million 1,245 1,175 510 163 158 136 33 29 26 449 347949 621 1,170 822 Greater China South AsiaSouth-East Asia North-East Asia OceaniaPenetrationTotal Asia Pacific 1,952 2,

38、755 3,125 50% 67% 72% 200002242025 Two thirds of the population in the region subscribe to mobile services, with variation between sub-regions Source: GSMA IntelligenceFigure 2 Percentage of population 67% 81% 76% 70% 68% 53% 72% 85% 79% 73%72% 61% 2025201

39、8 Asia PacificGreater ChinaNorth-East AsiaOceaniaSouth AsiaSouth-East Asia The mobile market in numbers 9 The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2019 Two-thirds of new subscribers by 2025 will be from India and China Source: GSMA IntelligenceFigure 3 Million 171 73 31 24 19 15 36370 IndiaChinaPakistanIndon

40、esiaBangladeshPhilippinesOthersTotal new subscribers by 2025 4G became the dominant technology in 2018 and will surpass 70% in 2021. 5G will overtake 3G in 2023 Source: GSMA IntelligenceFigure 4 Percentage of connections (excluding licensed cellular IoT) 5G 2G 4G 3G 68% 30% 18% 0% 10% 4% 25% 46% 201

41、620020202242025 1.2 5G launches begin, but 4G dominates The mobile market in numbers 10 The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2019 24 markets in Asia Pacific will have launched 5G by 2025 Source: GSMA IntelligenceFigure 5 2020 by 2025 by 2025 South Korea Australia Guam Hong Kong Nort

42、hern Mariana Islands Philippines China India Japan Macao Malaysia New Zealand Singapore Sri Lanka Taiwan Vietnam Bangladesh Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Indonesia Myanmar Pakistan Samoa Thailand 201820192020 The mobile market in numbers 11 The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2019 South Koreas first nation

43、wide 5G network On 4 April 2019, all three of South Koreas mobile operators SK Telecom, KT Corp and LG Uplus launched commercial 5G services to consumers, making South Korea the first country in the world with nationwide 5G availability.1 This follows the launch of limited-coverage, enterprise-only

44、services on 1 December 2018, also a world first. The three operators are offering basic and premium 5G tariffs via Samsungs Galaxy S10 5G smartphone2, as well as a number of promotional deals and gifts. For South Korean consumers, operators pricing strategies mean 5G services are less expensive per

45、GB at low and mid-range tiers. The countrys strong high-speed fixed broadband infrastructure and Wi-Fi penetration can render a generous mobile data allowance useful but not vital. That said, upgrades to 5G from mid-range 4G packages require that consumers face a price rise, while the promotions and

46、 gifts only partially mask what appears an overall increase in charges for top-end plans (SKT will refresh its prices having analysed subscribers data usage patterns).3 KT predicts that 5G will account for 10% of its mobile subscriber base by year-end 2019. However, it is too early to know how initi

47、al pricing announcements will influence 5G adoption. While lower prices may be true for certain tariffs, network performance, coverage and device costs will also influence 5G take-up over the coming years. In the month following the launch, South Koreas Ministry of Science and ICT (MSIT) announced a

48、round 260,000 users had signed up for 5G services.4 By the end of May, LG Uplus reported that 5G usage was averaging 1.3 GB per day, up from 400 MB with LTE.5 1. A key factor in the nationwide rollout was the regulator mandating infrastructure sharing. 2. One device was announced at launch, with the

49、 LG V50 to be added later. 3. For more information, see 5G pricing tactics attempt to gauge consumer demand, GSMA Intelligence, 2019 4. “Korea operators amass 260K 5G customers”, Mobile World Live, May 2019 5. Data use surges on Korea 5G networks”, Mobile World Live, May 2019 The mobile market in numbers 12 The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2019 North-East Asia and Oceania will lead in 5G adoption in Asia Pacific 5G as a share of total connections in 2025 (excluding licensed cellular IoT) Source: GSMA IntelligenceFigure 6 18% Asia Pacific 28% Greater China