1、Significant risks and uncertainties across the electric vehicle value chain make a flexible strategy,strong partnerships,and transparency essential.By Pedro Correa,Cate Hight,Rob Pick,and Clay StrangerBuilding a Resilient Global EV Supply Chain Amid UncertaintyCopyright 2023 Bain&Company,Inc.All rig

2、hts reserved.1Building a Resilient Global EV Supply Chain Amid UncertaintyRMI|Bain&Company,Inc.At a Glance The Inflation Reduction Act continues the diversification trend and has catalyzed investment in the US electric vehicle supply chain.Analysis suggests a sufficient supply of key minerals to mee

3、t IRA requirements for US or free-trade area sources.However,risks include the possibility that some regional and global supply/demand imbalances will potentially exist across the EV value chain.Amid uncertainties,building flexible strategies,transparency,and creating partnerships to derisk investme

4、nts is key.The Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)has attracted more than$65 billion of investment in the US electric vehicle(EV)supply chain since it was passed in August 2022,including$49 billion for new battery and battery component manufacturing.It amounts to a massive commitment to the shift away from

5、 combustion engine vehicles and to building up domestic EV manufacturing capability,right along the supply chain.This stems from the substantial tax credits offered to drivers who buy EVs and requirements that a large share of raw materials and components must be extracted and produced in the US or

6、in Free Trade Agreement(FTA)countries.These include Canada,Australia,South Korea,and Chile.The IRA provides tax credits of up to$7,500 for the purchase of new consumer and commercial light vehicles,and up to$40,000 for medium-and heavy-duty vehicles such as buses.There are also significant productio

7、n incentives for manufacturers that localize each step of the EV value chain.To qualify for the consumer vehicle credit,vehicles must meet certain supply-chain criteria:Eighty percent of the value of critical minerals used to make the vehicle must be extracted or processed in the US or an FTA countr

8、y by 2027,and 100%of the component value of a battery must be produced or assembled in North America by 2029.Importantly,these criteria do not apply to commercial vehicles,which could lead to supply-chain division.The anticipated accelerated shift to EVs from internal combustion engine(ICE)vehicles

9、resulting from the subsidies will make a significant contribution toward the US meeting its emissions-reduction targets.Analysis by our research partner RMI,an independent nonprofit focused on clean energy,predicts that the lifetime greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions of an electric vehicle that hits the r

10、oad in 2024 will be around half those of a traditional ICE vehicle(see Figure 1).Localizing manufacturing in line with the IRAs requirements could reduce this by a further 10%.While the IRA currently offers one of the largest packages of government incentives for EVs and localized battery manufactur

11、ing,other countries are likely to move toward building more diversified EV supply chains.The European Unions(EU)Critical Raw Materials Act,for example,commits to increasing the share of mineral extraction and processing and battery manufacturing carried out within the EU by 2030.2Building a Resilien

12、t Global EV Supply Chain Amid UncertaintyRMI|Bain&Company,Inc.If countries in Europe(defined for this analysis as covering most European countries and referred to subsequently simply as Europe)offer equivalent legislation in the future,it could add to the demand driven by the US and FTA countries fr

13、om the same parts of the world and increase regionalized trade flows(see Figure 2),creating competition for the same resources.Supply-chain risk can be evaluated through multiple lenses,but our analysis identifies three key risks for companies along the EV value chain.These could also put government

14、 targets for EV adoption and emissions reduction in jeopardy.They are:the IRA and broader geopolitics,which relate to how much supply is legislatively required to come from specific regions,and/or how much demand may be generated by trading blocs from the same regions of supply;global supply-chain r

15、esiliency,which is affected by overall supply and demand,as well as geographic and supplier concentration;and environmental,social,and governance(ESG)concerns,including the impact of natural resources on mining and processing key minerals.To identify potential hotspots,we assessed each of these risk

16、s across 16 critical segments of the end-to-end EV battery supply chain,from mining and processing of critical minerals through components and battery production,to end-of-life recycling(see Figure 3).Figure 1:The Inflation Reduction Act will help reduce carbon emissions through a combination of fas

17、ter electric vehicle adoption and value-chain localizationNotes:Analysis is based on the NMC811 battery chemistry with a bill of materials based on the Argonne National Laboratorys BatPaC model;in consumerUS-based case,we assume battery production is based in the US with materials available in the U

18、S market;for status quo case we assume that batteryproduction takes place in China,with materials available in the Chinese market;vehicle lifetime GHG emissions based on both internal combustion engine(ICE)and electric vehicle(EV)placed into the market in 2024Sources:Argonne National LaboratoryGREET

19、 2022;RMI analysisEV adoption drives 50%reduction in greenhousegas emissions,and localization could drive anadditional 10%reductionAs auto goes electric,focus will shift to battery supply chain to further decrease emissionsVehicle lifetime GHG emissions(MtCO2)Battery production GHG emissions(KgCO2/K

20、Wh)InternalcombustionengineEV:Status quoEV battery production Vehicle assemblyEV:US basedOn road50%reduction10%reductionEV:Status quoMining andprocessingCell componentsCathodeAnodeElectrolytes/separatorBattery assemblyEV:US based30%reduction3Building a Resilient Global EV Supply Chain Amid Uncertain

21、tyRMI|Bain&Company,Inc.Figure 2:Inflation Reduction Act requirements could create more regional trade flows for the EV supply chain between now and 2030Source:Bain&CompanyUS and free tradeagreement countries1aEurope1bRussia/China3 3Neutral trading countries2Figure 3:Current 2030 risk-assessment scor

22、ecard identifying potential hotspots along the EV value chainNote:FTA stands for free trade agreement countries;OEM stands for original equipment manufacturer;ESG stands for environmental,social,and governanceSource:Bain&CompanyIRAannouncedsupply anddemandIRAsupplyexecutionUS,FTA,and Europesupply an

23、ddemandGlobalsupply anddemandGeographicconcentrationSupplierconcentrationESGIRA andgeopoliticsGlobaly supply-chainresiliencyEnvironmental/socialHigher riskMedium riskLower riskMining andprocessing:CriticalmineralsProcessing:ConstituentmaterialsComponentsand batteryproductionOEM/recyclingLithiumNicke

24、lCobaltManganeseGraphiteAluminumFluorsparCathodeAnodeCathode:BindersElectrolyte salts Electrolyte formulationSeparatorsBattery(electrode,cell,pack)EV assemblyRecycling4Building a Resilient Global EV Supply Chain Amid UncertaintyRMI|Bain&Company,Inc.These results can be summarized as four challenges

25、that need to be addressed:There is a potential global shortage of some critical minerals through to 2030,and in particular a lack of mining and processing capacity.Announced supply in the US,FTA countries,Europe,and neutral trading nations is less than expected US,FTA,and European demand.This might

26、lead to competition for supply.Supply of constituent materials such as electrolyte salts and battery components such as separators that meet regional content requirements is insufficient to meet demand from US consumer vehicles.Geographic and/or supplier concentration is high across nearly every par

27、t of the EV value chain.That makes it vulnerable to disruption from regulation,geopolitical conflict,natural disasters including earthquakes and hurricanes,and pandemics.Mitigating the environmental and social impacts of battery production while growing capacity at speed and adhering to global regul

28、ations and standards,in particular for responsible mining,may prove very difficult.Below,we look in detail at these challenges vs.risks as they stand today,as well as the key uncertainties facing the market.We consider what actions companies can take to build flexible,reliable EV supply chains with

29、greater resilience and adaptability in the face of change.Challenge 1 Potential global supply shortages of some mineralsLooking only at what the IRA requires legislatively for consumer vehicles,there is likely to be more than enough supply to meet US consumer vehicle demand from IRA-compliant(US and

30、 FTA)countries across most minerals,including lithium,nickel,and cobalt(see Figure 4)in 2030.While sufficient cobalt supply has been announced,there is a slight shortfall in announced cobalt processing capacity,raising the risk slightly for that commodity.However,US consumer vehicle makers are unlik

31、ely to be the only manufacturers to prefer supplies from the US/FTA trading bloc.Looking at all EV demand from the US,FTA countries,and Europe,volume from within theseas well as from neutral areasis not sufficient.A serious gap emerges in processing capacity:Only 65%to 75%of the processing capacity

32、required to meet lithium,nickel,and cobalt demand from the US,FTA countries,and Europe will be available in these regions plus neutral countries by 2030.Based on currently announced capacity that has moved beyond the feasibility-study stage,global supply of these key minerals(including supply from R

33、ussia and China,which is not IRA-compliant)is expected to be insufficient to meet global demand by 2030.Without technological advancements or new supply from existing mines,there could be limited opportunity to increase supplies significantly.It takes on average more than six years to bring new mini

34、ng capacity in lithium online,and more than four years for nickel and cobalt once feasibility studies are completed.5Building a Resilient Global EV Supply Chain Amid UncertaintyRMI|Bain&Company,Inc.Figure 4a:The 2030 outlook for three critical EV supply-chain minerals varies by scenario352830555601,

35、270270490USconsumerEVdemandTotal USEVdemandUSconsumerEVdemandUSconsumerEVdemandTotal USEVdemandTotal USEVdemandMiningProcessingMiningProcessingMiningProcessingDemandDemandDemand2705905055002,0001,000040030010020004,0002,0000US and Free Trade Agreement countriesThe 2030 outlook for three critical EV

36、supply-chain minerals varies by scenarioLithium,in kilotonsLower riskLower riskMedium riskNickel,in kilotonsCobalt,in kilotonsNotes:Lithium mining includes spodumene and brine and processing includes lithium hydroxide and carbonate;nickel mining includes sulfide and laterite ores and refining includ

37、es nickel sulfate;cobalt mining includes copper and nickel ores and processing includes cobalt sulfate;supply includes recycling estimates;assumes US BEV adoption of 50%by 2030;nickel sulfate processing capacity estimated based on all class 1 supply(sulphide ore to nickel metal,laterite ore to NPI t

38、o matte,and laterite ore to MHP/MSP),assuming nickel metal,matte,and MHP/MSP could all be used to produce nickel sulfate;cobalt sulfate processingcapacity estimated based on cobalt final refining capacity(include both chemicals and metals processing)Sources:S&P Pro Market Intelligence;World Bureau o

39、f Metal Statistics;Cobalt Institute;analyst reports;Bain EV market model;Bain analysisUSA/FTAMinerals potentially disqualified by IRA210%185%90%Figure 4b:The 2030 outlook for three critical EV supply-chain minerals varies by scenarioBroader global communityLithium,in kilotonsHigher riskHigher riskHi

40、gher riskCobalt,in kilotonsMiningProcessingMiningProcessingMiningProcessing4003001002000DemandDemandDemandNickel,in kilotons4,0002,00002,0001,00009303,6208401,690953851,320FTAUS1,260FTAUS140FTAUSNotes:Lithium mining includes spodumene and brine and processing includes lithium hydroxide and carbonate

41、;nickel mining includes sulfide and laterite ores and refining includes nickel sulfate;cobalt mining includes copper and nickel ores and processing includes cobalt sulfate;supply includes recycling estimates;nickel sulfate processing capacity estimated based on all class 1 supply(sulphide ore to nic

42、kel metal,laterite ore to NPI to matte,and laterite ore to MHP/MSP),assuming nickel metal,matte,and MHP/MSP could all be used to produce nickel sulfate;cobalt sulfate processing capacity estimated based on cobalt final refining capacity,including both chemicals and metals processingSources:S&P Pro M

43、arket Intelligence;World Bureau of Metal Statistics;Cobalt Institute;analyst reports;Bain EV market model;Bain analysisThe 2030 outlook for three critical EV supply-chain minerals varies by scenarioEuropeMinerals potentially disqualified by IRANeutral trading countriesUSA/FTA65%75%70%6Building a Res

44、ilient Global EV Supply Chain Amid UncertaintyRMI|Bain&Company,Inc.Challenge 2 Limited regional capacity to produce some constituent materials and componentsAnnounced supply was assessed in two categories:constituent materials(cathode binders and electrolyte salts)and components(electrolytes and sep

45、arators).Both produced a mixed pictureannounced supply of binders and electrolytes appears to be sufficient to meet the needs of the US consumer vehicle market,while electrolyte salts and separators do not(see Figure 5).Even where announced IRA-compliant capacity is enough to meet expected demand,a

46、gap remains between what is planned and what is operating or under construction today.This creates execution risk,as projects to supply some important constituent materials and components have yet to be implemented(see Figure 6).Looking at individual materials and components,close to 60%of the annou

47、nced capacity in cathode binders is already operating.By contrast,electrolyte salts and electrolytes have less than 50%of their announced capacity either operational or under construction.Separators,which show a large gap in announced supply,also have no new capacity under construction yet,increasin

48、g the risk for that component.Overall,regional supply of constituent materials and components from the US,FTA countries,and European nations is far short of expected demand across those regions by 2030(see Figure 7).Electrolyte Figure 4c:The 2030 outlook for three critical EV supply-chain minerals v

49、aries by scenarioGlobal,EVs and beyond410FTANon-EVUSLithium,in kilotonsCobalt,in kilotonsMiningProcessingMiningProcessingMiningProcessing4003001002000DemandDemandDemandHigher riskHigher riskHigher risk4,600270415FTANon-EVUS4,600NPIFeNi5,300FTAStainless steelNon-stainlesssteel(ex-EV)*USNickel,in kilo

50、tons4,0002,00002,0001,00003,1003,3002,5002,7002,5002,700Notes:Lithium mining includes spodumene and brine and processing includes lithium hydroxide and carbonate;nickel mining includes sulfide and laterite ores and refining includes class 1 and 2 refining of nickel sulfate and metal,NPI,and FeNi;Cob

51、alt mining includes copper and nickel ores and processingincludes cobalt chemicals and metals;supply includes recycling estimates;low probability mines accounts for all projects currently in the pipeline includingunapproved,delayed,or new tech;EV and non-stainless steel only use class 1 supply inclu

52、ding nickel sulfate and metal;All demand is for EVs except as notedSources:S&P Pro Market Intelligence;World Bureau of Metal Statistics;Cobalt Institute;analyst reports;Bain EV market model;Bain analysisThe 2030 outlook for three critical EV supply-chain minerals varies by scenarioEuropeMinerals pot

53、entially disqualified by IRAChinaRussiaNeutral trading countriesUSA/FTALower-probability supplies80%85%65%7Building a Resilient Global EV Supply Chain Amid UncertaintyRMI|Bain&Company,Inc.Figure 5:Announced Inflation Reduction Actcompliant capacity for electrolyte salts and separators is insufficien

54、t to cover expected US consumer demandNotes:IRA-compliant supply for constituent materials includes supply in the US and free trade agreement countries;IRA-compliant supply for componentsincludes North America supply only;demand assumes US battery electric vehicle adoption of 50%by 2030;constituent

55、material and component demandestimates based on typical material usage per GWh Sources:Bain market model;Nomura;Credit Suisse;JP Morgan;lBMO Capital Markets 2030FsupplyUS/free tradeagreementcountries 502030FdemandUSconsumer352030F Capacity vs.demand(kt)140%2030F Capacity vs.demand(kt)60%2030F Capaci

56、ty vs.demand(kt)130%2030F Capacity vs.demand(millions m)Cathode binder Electrolyte saltsElectrolyteSeparator 35%2030Fsupply30US/free tradeagreementcountries 2030Fdemand50USconsumer550North America2030Fsupply435USconsumer2030Fdemand4,700USconsumer2030FdemandNorthAmericaPotentialIRAdisqualifying North

57、 America2030FsupplyLower riskMedium riskLower riskHigher riskTotal US EV demand=65Total US EVdemand=95Total US EV demand=790Total US EVdemand=8,570Constituent materialsComponents1,640Figure 6:Construction of many projects in electrolyte salts,electrolytes,and separators has yet to begin Note:Company

58、 announcements used to estimate capacity expansion may not be exhaustive Sources:NAATBatt battery supply chain database;Nomura;Morgan Stanley;Credit Suisse;Bain market model;company announcements2030F IRA-compliant production capacity(in kt,except for separators in M m)020406080100%Cathode binder Op

59、eratingFunded and sited50Lower riskConstituent materialsComponentsOperating and under construction at 50%or greater is low riskOperating and under constructionbelow 35%is high risk58%Electrolyte saltsOperatingUnder constructionFunded and sitedAnnounced30Medium risk46%ElectrolyteOperatingUnder constr

60、uctionAnnounced550Funded and sitedMedium risk42%SeparatorOperatingFunded and sitedAnnounced2,950Higher risk12%Medium risk8Building a Resilient Global EV Supply Chain Amid UncertaintyRMI|Bain&Company,Inc.salts show the biggest gap between supply and demand,followed by cathode binders,and then electro

61、lytes.The position on separators is better,but a proportion of supply from North America may not be IRA-compliant because the country in which the companys controlling organization is based makes it ineligible.When all geopolitical and trading regions are included,global supply comfortably covers de

62、mand(see Figure 8).However,this would leave original equipment manufacturers(OEMs)and suppliers heavily reliant on Chinese and Russian capacity.Challenge 3High geographic and supplier concentration The geographic concentration of suppliers of constituent materials and components is significant.As we

63、ll as the risk posed by trade or political disputes between countries,the Covid-19 pandemic showed how supply chains can be disrupted by shutdowns in markets where supply is highly concentrated.Extreme weather events,which are becoming both worse and more frequent due to climate change,could result

64、in similar shortages.Separately,there are potential supplier concentration risks along the value chain.In electrolyte salts and separators,for example,the top three suppliers provide 70%to 80%of the announced capacity.Concentration is less in cathode binders and electrolytes,but the top three suppli

65、ers still provide around 50%of the announced supply(see Figure 9).Figure 7:Announced supply from the US,free trade agreement countries,and Europe is insufficient to meet regional demand for some materialsNotes:Demand assumes US battery electric vehicle adoption of 50%by 2030;constituent material and

66、 component demand estimates based on typicalmaterial usage per GWh Sources:Bain market model;Nomura;Credit Suisse;JP Morgan;BMO Capital MarketsConstituent materialsComponents 2030Fsupply902030FEV demand1752030F Capacity vs.demand(kt)50%2030F Capacity vs.demand(kt)25%2030F Capacity vs.demand(kt)80%20

67、30F Capacity vs.demand(millions m)Cathode binder Electrolyte saltsElectrolyteSeparator 110%2030Fsupply602030FEV demand2601,760North AmericaFTA2030Fsupply2,1652030FEV demand23,4752030FEV demand25,300FTA2030FsupplyHigher riskHigher riskHigher riskMedium riskEuropeNorth AmericaPotential IRA disqualifyi

68、ng Neutral trading countriesUSA/FTANorth America9Building a Resilient Global EV Supply Chain Amid UncertaintyRMI|Bain&Company,Inc.Figure 8:Announced global supply comfortably covers demand across all four productsNotes:Demand assumes US battery electric vehicle adoption of 50%by 2030;constituent mat

69、erial and component demand estimates based on typicalmaterial usage per GWhSources:Bain market model;Nomura;Credit Suisse;JP Morgan;BMO Capital Markets 2030Fsupply4702030FEV demand4052030F Capacity vs.demand(kt)115%2030F Capacity vs.demand(kt)140%2030F Capacity vs.demand(kt)135%2030F Capacity vs.dem

70、and(millions m)Cathode binder Electrolyte saltsElectrolyteSeparator 130%2030Fsupply7602030FEV demand540US EVFTA EV6,000North AmericaFTA2030Fsupply4,495US EVFTA EV2030FEV demand53,0002030FEVdemand70,200North AmericaFTA2030FsupplyLower riskLower riskLower riskLower riskUS EVFTA EVFTA EVUS EVConstituen

71、t materialsComponentsEuropeChinaRussiaNon-EVNeutral trading countriesUSA/FTAFigure 9:High geographic concentration coupled with limited supplier diversification introduces a single point of failure risk for some supply stepsSources:Bain market model;Nomura;Credit Suisse;JP Morgan;BofA Global Researc

72、h;United States Geological Survey;company announcements Geographic concentration risk(based on production capacity)Supplier diversification risk(based on production capacity)2030F production capacity by country(kt,except separators in m2)2030F production capacity by company(kt,except separators in m

73、2)ElectrolyteformulationElectrolytesaltsCathodebinderElectrolyteformulationElectrolytesaltsCathodebinderSeparatorPoland92%ChinaUSFranceChina80%99%98%87%93%USOtherOtherSeparatorJapanSouthKorea64%ChinaUSUSJapan69%ChinaOtherKoreaTop 3producersJapanRisklevel100%806040200100%54%Top 3producersOtherproduce

74、rs71%Top 3producersOtherproducers46%Top 3producersOtherproducers78%Top 3producersOtherproducersHighHighHighHighMediumHighMediumHigh10Building a Resilient Global EV Supply Chain Amid UncertaintyRMI|Bain&Company,Inc.Challenge 4 Aligning the need to grow capacity with ESG requirementsIn the EV supply c

75、hain,strong environmental and social risks around responsible mining practices exist,including carbon emissions as well as commitment to broader ESG issues such as human rights.One example is increasing demand from investors and consumers for companies to be transparent about issues such as child la

76、bor and emissions across all their inputs and supplier practices along the value chain.The transition to EVs will also require a significant shift in jobs and training in the existing domestic car industry.Future subsidies and government support for new investments(especially battery and OEM investm

77、ents)may be at risk unless there is sufficient community investment in training and local hiring.When it comes to the critical battery components of lithium,nickel,and cobalt,there are some significant ESG risks.One is human-rights abusesthe Democratic Republic of Congo is the worlds biggest cobalt

78、producer,and recent research has found forced and child labor still occurs in some of its mines,despite changes made in response to investor and customer pressure.Another comes from the greenhouse gases released during mining and processing of the minerals,as well as potential harm to biodiversity.A

79、 large proportion of the worlds reserves of all three key minerals are in biodiverse areasaround 70%in the case of cobalt mining.Recent policy developments have made protection of habitats and species higher ESG priorities.For example,the Global Biodiversity Framework agreed at the COP15 summit in D

80、ecember 2022 commits 196 member nations to“halt and reverse”biodiversity loss by 2030.Given the legitimate social and regulatory pressure for environmental protection,companies will also need to proactively address measures such as limits on water use in mining if they are to get their sites up and

81、running quickly.Failing to address ESG concerns can add risk and uncertainty in mining operations.Three broad areas of uncertainty that will affect the market and decision makingAs this risk assessment looks ahead to 2030,there is considerable uncertainty around the severity and potential outcome of

82、 each of these challenges and their impact on EV makers and suppliers,as well as on emissions-reduction targets.The four challenges described above are based on todays best available information,but it will be important for companies in the EV supply chain and governments pursuing EV adoption and em

83、issions-reduction targets to understand that the scale of each challenge could change drastically.The uncertainties in addressing the identified challenges fall into three broad categories:supply availability,linked to execution timing of new capacity both in mining and processing of key minerals,po

84、tential advances in technology,and the total global and regional supply of constituent materials,components,and batteries;11Building a Resilient Global EV Supply Chain Amid UncertaintyRMI|Bain&Company,Inc.further regionalization of the supply chain as a result of geopolitics and government policies,

85、including US refinements of the IRA,requirements or restrictions from other countries for localization of EV supply chains,and the level of coordination across trading blocs;and the strength of EV demand,which could be affected by adjacent dependencies such as the availability of supporting infrastr

86、ucture including charging points,the take-up of alternative technologies(for example,solid state batteries),and total EV cost compared with ICE vehicles.All of these elements will alter the risk heatmap shown earlier.It is possible,for example,that there will be a leap forward in mining technology.T

87、echniques such as direct lithium extraction(DLE)are gaining traction,with Chile and Argentina both aiming to implement DLE between 2025 and 2030.DLE may be able to significantly increase the amount of lithium produced from a site today,through improved recovery.A surge in supply could reduce both th

88、e global and regional supply/demand gap for this resource.At the other end of the spectrum,any delays or cancellation affecting announced mining projects in countries such as Argentina will cause greater shortages than currently anticipated.The uncertainties are such that hundreds of different scena

89、rios could play out over the coming years.There are three extreme but plausible scenarios that could result in EV supply chains developing very differently from the path described above:Drastic global conflictwhere geopolitical tensions continue to rise and trade blocs harden further,resulting in th

90、e creation of fully localized or regionalized supply chains.This causes supply of materials to become more constrained and EV supporting infrastructure to be delayed due to supply-chain issues,slowing overall adoption.Technological supply shockwhere new technologies unlock significant new supplies o

91、f critical minerals,leading to lower EV prices,faster adoption,and an overall relaxation of emphasis by governments on the need to localize the supply of some critical minerals.Non-EV revolutionwhere the IRA and other government support programs are rolled back,increasing prices and delaying adoptio

92、n of EVs,due to renewed concern on debt levels within governments.During this delayed rollout,a potential alternative low-carbon technology to EVs begins to show promise,further delaying consumer adoption and government pushes.While none of the above situations are expected to be the base case,or ev

93、en necessarily likely,companies in the EV supply chain need to be aware of all possibilities and plan for a rapidly evolving and highly uncertain future.What can OEMs and suppliers do now to build a resilient future supply chain?The IRA has sent a clear market signal regarding EV adoption and the ne

94、ed to build out the required infrastructure.However,EV supply-chain participants remain in an uncomfortable position.12Building a Resilient Global EV Supply Chain Amid UncertaintyRMI|Bain&Company,Inc.Uncertainty clouds important aspects of the decision-making process,but no company can afford to sit

95、 still.So what can they do?First,they should think of each investment as part of a portfolio.Some investments will work in nearly all scenarios.These“no regret”moves are typically the first investments to make.Others will be small-to medium-sized bets that create options and flexibility and will be

96、valuable under many scenarios and/or support critical learning processes.Examples here include pilot-scale investments or smaller new capability investments.The last is big betsone-way decisions with large capital allocation where future scenarios provide conflicting views on the potential payoffs.F

97、or these big bets,companies will need strong convictions in how they view the future,despite the inherent uncertainty.Second,companies can no longer rely on setting a five-year plan,and then following it to the letter.In todays environment,it is important to identify and monitor signposts that could

98、 point to a future much different from the one originally expected and adjust the strategy in real time as needed.Third,companies need to invest in building transparent,robust,and circular supply chains.They should carry out the necessary due diligence on their inputs to clearly identify their most

99、critical materials,where these materials come from,the risks and potential failure points of each one,and individual mitigation plans.Additionally,this transparency can allow companies to quickly alter their own internal processes to meet specific requirements in different regions where they operate

100、.Fourth,companies should think expansively about how they can build partnerships and strike long-term agreements to help limit the impact of some uncertainties and derisk large capital investments.For example,battery recyclers can build partnerships with OEMs,battery manufacturers,and other electron

101、ics providers,to both build their future supply of batteries and ensure they have buyers for the recycled materials at economically feasible price points.Finally,it is important to invest in community and government outreach.On the government side,companies need to clearly understand current EV poli

102、cies and seek to address policymakers on issues of particular concern,look for win-win opportunities,and try to anticipate future policy shifts.Locally,all large capex projects require community support to some degree,and this is especially true in mining.Companies need to invest in community outrea

103、ch to build mutually agreeable outcomes,whether through local investment,protection of critical resources,or job training and economic revitalization efforts.This will help ensure smooth capacity buildup in the future.Shaping the future of the global EV supply chainThe introduction of the IRA has se

104、en the US leap forward in incentives for the energy transition,with tax credits for EVs and measures to localize the battery supply chain both key.The benefits in reducing future emissions are undeniable,and with other countries likely to regionalize more of their EV supply chains,companies can no l

105、onger sit on their hands.The precise direction the global EV market and supply chain will take is unclear,but OEMs and suppliers cannot wait to make their no-regret moves or consider their big bets.They should begin building the agility that will allow them to successfully compete for limited resour

106、ces,without delay.For more information,visit Bold ideas.Bold teams.Extraordinary results.Bain&Company is a global consultancy that helps the worlds most ambitious change makers define the future.Across 65 cities in 40 countries,we work alongside our clients as one team with a shared ambition to achi

107、eve extraordinary results,outperform the competition,and redefine industries.We complement our tailored,integrated expertise with a vibrant ecosystem of digital innovators to deliver better,faster,and more enduring outcomes.Our 10-year commitment to invest more than$1 billion in pro bono services br

108、ings our talent,expertise,and insight to organizations tackling todays urgent challenges in education,racial equity,social justice,economic development,and the environment.RMI is an independent nonprofit founded in 1982 that transforms global energy systems through market-driven solutions to align with a 1.5C future and secure a clean,prosperous,zero-carbon future for all.