1、1 Insight Report May 2020 Challenges and Opportunities in the Post-COVID-19 World 2Challenges and Opportunities in the Post-COVID-19 World World Economic Forum 91-93 route de la Capite CH-1223 Cologny/Geneva Switzerland Tel.: +41 (0)22 869 1212 Fax: +41 (0)22 786 2744 E-mail: contactweforum.org www.

2、weforum.org Copyright 2020 by the World Economic Forum All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, or otherwise without the prior permission of the World Economic

3、Forum. ISBN-13: 978-2-940631-02-5 The Report is available at www.weforum.org. 3Challenges and Opportunities in the Post-COVID-19 World Challenges and Opportunities in the Post-COVID-19 World 4Challenges and Opportunities in the Post-COVID-19 World The views expressed in this e-book represent those o

4、f the authors and not of the World Economic Forum. 5Challenges and Opportunities in the Post-COVID-19 World Contents 28 Pascal Lamy and Eduardo Pedrosa Chapter 6 Economics: Trade and Connectivity in the Post- COVID-19 World 32 Sharan Burrow Chapter 7 Work: The Pandemic that Stopped the World 36 Winn

5、ie Byanyima Chapter 8 Health: Providing Free Health for All, Everywhere 40 Carolyn Kousky Chapter 9 Management: Catastrophic Risk Transfer in a Post- Pandemic World 44 Chan Ghee Koh Leonard Lee Carolyn Lo Catherine Wong Janson Yap Chapter 10 A Socio-Psychological Perspective 50 Acknowledgements 52 E

6、ndnotes 06 Introduction Chapter 4 Geopolitics: Resilient and Sustainable Globalization 20 08 Ngaire Woods Chapter 1 Global Governance: Planning for the World After COVID-19 12 Rolf Alter Chapter 2 Regional Governance: An Opportunity for Regional Organizations? 16 Robert Muggah Chapter 3 Urban Govern

7、ance: Cities in a Time of COVID-19 24 Samir Saran Chapter 5 Technology: Digital Epiphany? COVID-19 and Our Tech Futures Julie Bishop and Anthea Roberts 6Challenges and Opportunities in the Post-COVID-19 World Introduction While a global pandemic has been a looming risk for decades, COVID-19 has come

8、 as a shock to society, health systems, economies and governments worldwide. In the midst of extraordinary challenges and uncertainty, and countless personal tragedies, leaders are under pressure to make decisions on managing the immediate impact of the pandemic and its consequences, decisions that

9、will shape the state of the world for years to come. What might be the silver linings in the crisis and how might leaders use this moment to build a more prosperous, equitable and sustainable world? In this collection of essays, the Global Risks Advisory Board of the World Economic Forums Global Ris

10、ks Initiative looks beyond the current crisis to the potential challenges and opportunities in the post-COVID-19 world. The result is a range of expert opinions from a geographically diverse set of leaders. They are designed to offer new perspectives on the post-pandemic future, in support of effort

11、s to proactively and collectively shape the future we want. The views represented are solely those of the authors and do not represent the views of the World Economic Forum. 7Challenges and Opportunities in the Post-COVID-19 World REUTERS / HANNAH MCKAY 8Challenges and Opportunities in the Post-COVI

12、D-19 World CHAPTER 1 Global Governance: Planning for the World After COVID-19 The high-risk scenario Politics could turn toxic as governments fail or struggle to speedily control the pandemic, to ease lockdowns safely, or to communicate clearly about what they are doing and why. Some politicians wil

13、l resort to a discourse combining fear and tribalism. This will exacerbate discrimination at home as seen in some parts of the United States, China and India and jingoistic nationalism will also make international cooperation more difficult. Failure to cooperate internationally will hinder the fight

14、 against the virus. Closing down trade, requisitioning materials, or preventing supply to other nations will hobble everyones capacity to source adequate testing and treatment materials. The closing of borders and ripping up of international rules will make it ever more difficult to restart trade an

15、d travel, and extend the lockdown, heightening anger and anxiety. The crisis has exposed how many people, even in some of the worlds richest countries, live in inadequate housing, without reserves of cash or food, and face difficulties in accessing government assistance. The global lockdown is exact

16、ing an enormous price from them. They After COVID-19 there is a risk that the world could be yet more divided, conflictual and nationalistic. But an alternative scenario is within reach. In this scenario, collective action within communities and, where necessary, internationally, will make a more ra

17、pid and peaceful exit from the crisis possible. Ngaire Woods, Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford 9Challenges and Opportunities in the Post-COVID-19 World will demand better, having seen the enormous sums governments have mobilized to deal with the crisis. However, not all governmen

18、ts will be able to deliver. Governments will face gigantic debts. Many households and businesses were already heavily indebted before the crisis. Some will be able to raise funding through the capital markets (the UK borrowed 45 billion in one month). Others will face ruinous rates for borrowing (So

19、uth Africa has had its credit rating reduced to junk status). Investors will look for robust investment plans, competent leadership and robust institutions. Most developing countries will be excluded. In short, a financial crisis is in the offing and without international cooperation, beggar-thy-nei

20、ghbour policies are likely to deepen economic recession for all. Finally, sabre-rattling and war offer a diversion for politicians facing political and economic turmoil at home. Building on their jingoistic nationalism, there is a risk that some will seek to focus the anger and frustration of their

21、citizens on another country. Already we are seeing political leaders blame other countries for their own failings, including for problems before the crisis. One scenario for the post-COVID-19 world has political and economic forces fuelling fear and conflict, deepening economic damage, eviscerating

22、the possibility of growing out of the crisis and exacerbating divisions that the pandemic is already revealing. A better scenario The world has managed extreme conditions before. Leaders of the 1940s reflected on their failure to cooperate after the First World War, how it drove the world into econo

23、mic catastrophe (the Great Depression) and conflict (the Second World War) and resolved to do better. They started planning during the war. They knew that cooperation would be essential to rebuild afterwards and to redevelop a global economy within which each country could grow. So, too, global lead

24、ers must begin to plan post- pandemic cooperation. Three tasks that confronted those leaders have their parallel today. First and most immediate is to fight the common enemy now the virus together. The second is political and geopolitical: Churchill, Roosevelt and Stalin had to fashion a world that

25、could accommodate their own (and others) diverse political regimes. The third task is economic. Economic reconstruction had to deal with massive government debts and a broken global trading and investment system. Fighting the virus together requires cooperation on three things: research and knowledg

26、e (working together to understand and beat the virus); maintaining global supply (trade ensuring efficient global supply of necessary materials); and warning of future outbreaks. This might sound easy. It is very difficult. Why would a scientist share crucial data with others, or a country continue

27、to export protective equipment if they are not sure that other countries will reciprocate? Why warn of a disease outbreak if you think other countries will slam the door on you? For cooperation to work, countries need to agree common rules and empower an institution to oversee them. The World Health

28、 Organization (WHO) exists to do this, but it is overstretched and underfunded. It needs to be 10Challenges and Opportunities in the Post-COVID-19 World properly funded to do its job. Its current budget is about equal to that of one large US hospital, and 83% of it is “voluntary” contributions, whic

29、h are tagged for special projects. It also needs governments to hear and follow its advice. Since 4 January 2020, the WHO has shared information about the outbreak, providing technical advice and guidance, and emphasizing the need to test, trace, and isolate in order to contain the virus. Some major

30、 countries ignored the warnings and the advice. There has, however, been cooperation among scientists from China, the US, Europe and among businesses (e.g., the GSK team-up with AstraZeneca). Some of that cooperation was facilitated by the WHO, whose technical guidance and advice have been taken up

31、by many countries. Although there have been export controls, Germany has flown Italian patients to its hospitals and China has sent ventilators and protective equipment to other countries. In Latin America, efforts are being made to keep borders open while fighting the virus together. The key thing

32、now is to tilt this mixture further in the direction of cooperation. The WHO must be supported, financed and empowered to do everything possible to point the world towards a virtuous circle of mutual trust and away from a vicious cycle of dog-eat- dog. Improving politics Diverse political regimes mu

33、st work together in the world after COVID-19. People have been quick to conclude victory either for autocracy or democracy in this crisis. Democracy has been criticized for popularity-seeking instead of pursuing technically sound policies. Autocracy has been criticized for repression. But more humbl

34、e lessons need to be learned all round. Politicians in any system can be tempted to take popular rather than necessary decisions. Consider democratic neighbours Sweden and Denmark: Sweden with far less of a lockdown early on has ended up with a much higher death rate. Similarly, Wuhan authorities pl

35、ayed down news of the virus and went ahead with their Baibuting mass banquet on 9 February, to disastrous effect. Poor leadership results in bad outcomes, whatever the political system. Perhaps alternative centres of power at local or city level can offer insurance, and a quicker way to get things d

36、one. National leaders in the US and Brazil were slow to take the pandemic seriously but governors at the state level stepped up (albeit not resolving the need for coordination from the centre). In China, the crisis exposed the overly politicized accountability of local government officials in Wuhan.

37、 In Italy, mayors have stepped in to enforce what they describe as slightly confusing national messages. The UK government was slow to mobilize an existing network of local environmental health officers to trace contacts. All governments could do better by balancing autonomy and agility at the local

38、 level with national-level coordination. It has become too easy for extremists to rattle sabres across social media. But jingoism and talk of war will not resolve the core problems facing the US or China, nor any other country in the world. Government leaders facing an enormous challenge at home nee

39、d to focus their energies and efforts and agree to disagree with some foreigners, yet also make a powerful new case to their citizens about cooperation. They must provide security at home and, as its necessary correlate, cooperation abroad. 11Challenges and Opportunities in the Post-COVID-19 World R

40、econstruction Economic reconstruction is the third challenge. After the Second World War, war-torn countries were desperate to get their economies restarted. Debts had to be written down. New flows of investment had to be found. The result was a massive reset delivering mass housing, health, employm

41、ent and education. This may not be possible in 2020, but some changes occurring during the crisis could be built upon. Increased solidarity is visible across societies, as they seek to attenuate the effects of the lockdown. In Nigeria, citizen-powered welfare organizations and tech companies are ste

42、pping up to feed the poor. In the United Kingdom, high-end restaurants have stepped in to offer meals to hospital workers in the National Health Service. In China, volunteers made their way to Wuhan to help at the height of the crisis. In France, those who have lost their jobs in the cities are bein

43、g encouraged to go to the countryside to help farmers harvest produce. Across Europe people have made a regular feature of singing and applauding the newly recognized “key workers” (nurses, carers, doctors, firefighters, rubbish collectors and supermarket checkout operators), most of whom are low pa

44、id, and many immigrants. Communities are standing together, albeit at a physical distance. To build on emerging solidarity will take very careful and representative leadership. Global discussions float big ideas “Sustainable Development Goals”, “stakeholder capitalism”, etc. but the onus is on the p

45、roponents of these ideas to translate them into feasible steps that will help governments rebuild at a national level after the crisis. At the international level, two lessons from the post-war settlement stand out. The first is the need for debt write-downs to enable countries to grow out of the cr

46、isis. Packages and efforts to reduce the debt loads of development countries announced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank now need support from countries robust enough to tap into bond markets and share the benefits of their creditworthiness (through the credit- pooling arrangem

47、ents of multilaterals). The second lesson is that major producers will need to invest in growth in their own future markets in other countries. Post-war America did this. In todays world, the US, China and Europe will have to do the same. The post-COVID world will be shaped by decisions being made i

48、n the crucible of the fight against the virus. The profound uncertainty about the virus and its trajectory, and about how other countries will respond, only magnifies the importance of leadership. At the very least, leaders across the world must cooperate to fight against the virus, collectively eliminating it. They must do so without being distracted by political differences but by focusing on the extraordinary challenges that lie within their own borders. They must make the case to their citizens that security at home requires cooperation abroad. A