1、Revisiting DisruptionCompeting in Mobilitys Brave New WorldMichael G.JacobidesSir Donald Gordon Chair of Entrepreneurship and InnovationProfessor of Strategy&Entrepreneurship,London Business SchoolLead Advisor,Evolution LtdCEIBS Auto ForumShanghai,November 29th,2023Disruption?Huh,automobile OEMs,til

2、l recently,had it all under controlComputer OEMs have seen their share of the sectors total market cap fall from more than 80%to less than 20%Internet service providers and web search portalsSemiconductor and other electrical component MFGSoftware publishersComputer and peripheral equipment MFGAutom

3、otive OEMs retained its share of the sectors total market capMotor vehicle transmission and powertrain parts MFGMotor vehicle brake system MFGMotor vehicle gasoline engine and engine parts MFGMotor vehicle MFGJacobides&MacDuffie,Make value migrate your way,Harvard Business Review,2013because unlike

4、computers they tightly ran their ecosystemJacobides,MacDuffie&Tae,2016,Change and Stability in the Automotive Sector,Strategic Management JournalYet soon enough,all this changed and mobility started being sexyDue to digization,boundaries are redrawn and strategies reconsideredSource:Brian Colley,BCG

5、,AoM PDW,2018leading to a much more complicated sector structure:Strategy needed anew!Source:Brian Colley,BCG,AoM PDW,2018Bold new claims:Welcome to a digital,modular futureWhich turns out(like before)to be wildly exaggeratedLets rethink structure and disruption in mobilityWho leads and benefits fro

6、m Innovation?From Mark 1 vs Mark 2Neither Mark 1 nor Mark 2:Despite tech entrepreneurs,the demise of incumbents has been vastly exaggeratedHow do firms succeed in Mark 3?Buy,ally,form ecosystems Suppliers do it,too.Welcome to“Mark 3”london.edu14Multi-actor ecosystemIntegrationSupply chainSearchMusic

7、Videos/moviesInternet browsingCamera/picturesMessaging/SocialHealthMaps/locationGamingILLUSTRATIVE NOT EXAHUSTIVECamera in phonesWhy Mark 3 is unique:Big Tech and Multi-product and Multi-actor ecosystemsJacobides,M.G.,2022,“How to compete when sectors collide and industries digitize:An ecosystem dev

8、elopment guide”,California Management Review,SpringMark 3 dynamics:Win the ecosystem gameNew arenas,from mobility services to e-charging becoming battlegroundsThe value pools in the E-Mobility ecosystem are highly contestedFirst favorable tendencies for Electricity Utilities in partnership with Data

9、&Technology are recognizable4Core Business as of todayContested Business by each playerElectricity UtilitiesAutomotive IndustryData&Technology CompaniesOil&Gas as well as upcoming innovatorsDistribution NetworkEnergy Trading and HedgingTransmission NetworkEnergy Asset Ownership&FinancingRouting and

10、NavigationData ManagementSecurityFossil Fuel Supply ChainLogistics and DistributionEnergy Management SoftwareDecentralized NetworksVirtual Power Plants(Aggregation)Charging Point OperationAnalyticsData SourcingPayment Services&RoamingIoT IntegrationIntegrated Home SolutionsGrid Stabilization&Flexibi

11、lity(Redispatch)Power GenerationElectricity MeteringEmissions Certificate Trading and MarketingEnergyMobilityCustomer Touchpoint:Maintenance and ServiceDesign/ProductSales&DealershipSite OwnershipPower StorageInsuranceBattery 2nd Life&RecyclingBrandE-Mobility Equipment OEMBattery(HW,SW,OS)Data Owner

12、ship(Direct Access)london.edu 2020,all rights reserved;do not reproduce16How will this work when everyone wants an ecosystem play?17Evolution Ltds ecosystem framework helps define where,how and why to playSource:Evolution Ltd analysis;Jacobides,California Management Review,May 2022 london.edu 2020,a

13、ll rights reserved;do not reproduce18Outputs form the Ecosystem Development Framework-key questions to askStage Potential scope of play within the Ecosystem?Competitivelandscape and stance?Role of the firm in the BEEcosystemvalue propositionPartnering ImplementationBusiness CaseDescription Understan

14、d Ecosystem dynamics and where the firm could playUnderstand the Ecosystem competitive landscape Analyse what role should the firm play and what is its strategic approachAnalyse the potential value the firm could offer the EcosystemWhom could the firm want to partner with and how could it attract th

15、emHow should the firm launch,run and govern the EcosystemWhat is the case for investment Outputs End use profile and needs BE role and type assessment Stakeholder profile and needs analysis Ecosystem competitive assessment Join or build assessment Ecosystem creation approach plan Ecosystem role asse

16、ssment Target end user segment assessment End user friction points evaluation Stakeholder value prop,strengths and weakness,stickiness assessments Capability requirement assessment Partner selection process Partner incentive plan Stakeholder trust evaluation study Governance and management plan Ecos

17、ystem Management Benchmarking High level Ecosystem monetization plan High-level business case evaluationA1B4B1A3B2A2B3london.edu 2020,all rights reserved;do not reproduce19Inside-out analysis to set the boundaries of your ecosystem20=new playerHow do you compare to other ecosystems?Mark 3 Topography

18、 mapTabula rasaHead-onStrategic approachEnvelopingUnbundlingABCDExamplesBeforeAfter=incumbent(s)Note:Bubble size serves an illustrative purpose for the size of the firm(s)vsvsvsJacobides,M.G.,2021,An Ecosystem Development Framework:How to compete when industries digitize and sectors collide,forthcom

19、ing,California Management Review21M.G.Jacobides,2023,Ecosystems for the Rest of us,Strategy+Business,March22M.G.Jacobides,2023,Ecosystems for the Rest of us,Strategy+Business,Marchlondon.edu 2020,all rights reserved;do not reproduce23Mark 3 and ecosystem plays:New skills are needed!Current VW ecosys

20、tem:complex,dynamicTraditional approach:static,sparseJVOEMOEMConnected carsSelf-driving engineering&designAI servicesBatteriesFleet managementApps&servicesIoTRoboticsSources:Factiva,VC database,company website,BCG analysis25-year contractSource:Nikolaus Lang,BCG,LBS Mobility event,2017london.edu 202

21、0,all rights reserved;do not reproduce24Changing to adapt to Mark 3:Digital Ecosystems require an agile and innovative culture Strong focus on collaboration and sharing ideas Emphasis on solving problems with customers and partners Focus on speed and project-based work(sprints)that is highly iterati

22、ve Risk taking-push for results through trial and error and smart failureLegacy businesses often struggle with this;cultural intervention may be necessary Source:BCG analysislondon.edu 2020,all rights reserved;do not reproduce25Life in“Mark 3”:What to do and what to avoid to build great ecosystemsWh

23、at to doWhat not to doPrioritize(choose your battlefields),Prioritize(choose your anchors),Prioritize(complementors to enlist)Be customer obsessed(jobs to be done-by you or someone more nimble!)Co-create value by strategic partnerships(proactively seek collaborators)Have a game-plan(why youre in it;

24、how to compete;what goes first;how to grow)Measure success and reward it(set targets,KPIs,create buy-in inside)Suffer delusions of grandeur(think you can do it all)Build an Ego-system(assume customers&partners will flock)Try to offer it all(without looking at customer choice)Treat your partners as s

25、uppliers(co-create,dont just squeeze)Rush(ecosystems take time)london.eduForm of DisruptionWhat Does the Incumbent Lose?Automotive ExampleHow Can Incumbents Respond?(1)Substitute captures market share(classic disruption)Market shareEV and ICE are substitute powertrains.EV replaces ICE over time.OEMs

26、 convert their designs and production facilities from ICE to EV.(2)Complement drives down added value(commoditization)Margin,influence,controlAV“brain”becomes the vehicles central component;interactions between“brain”producer and other AV component suppliers become key.Ridesharing platforms become t

27、he dominant way in which users interact with vehicles,breaking direct relationship with OEM brands.OEMs bring AV technology in house through internal development and/or acquisition.OEMs develop ridesharing platforms and/or partner with existing platforms.(3)Complement enters as direct rival(adjacent

28、 entry)Market share,influence,control,bargaining power“Brain”producers(e.g.,Waymo)and/or ridesharing platform companies(e.g.,Uber)enter vehicle production(possibly using contract manufacturer).OEMs take steps to raise entry barriers.OEMs sell their operations to the new entrants.(4)Complement become

29、ssubstitute(displacement throughvalue inversion)Market sizeRidesharing platforms allow for more efficient vehicle utilization,reducing the number vehicles required to serve the market.AV technology increases safety,eliminating the need to insure against driver error.OEMs retreat to the high-performance segment as the automotive market bifurcates into ridesharing vehicles and recreational cars.Insurance companies(initially providing a key complement to the automobile)are the incumbents who are displaced.From the“how to”back to research:JP MacDuffie to the rescue!