1、?2023/9/2210102032?319002019?007080901001900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019?1?2?去?1?2?去?ESG+?45?20?务?-50%0%50%100%150%1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050!#$-150%-100%-50%0%50%1

2、00%150%1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050!#$-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050!#$1995-2050?务?1995-2050?务?1995-2050?务?研?BP?6?务?8.0%12.3%12.5%14.6%19.1%3.6%4.7%6.1%8.3%16.5%8.8%17.0%20.4%23.3%30.1%8.6%11.6%12.6%12.3%15.1%0

3、%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%020102020?务?研?IEA?7 7?2030?105?2020?1.6?1?77%?41%?2030?油?研?Wind?2.9?2.4?1.9?1.6?1.3?1.0?0502005200252030?CO2/?2005?105?,?77%?,?17%?,?6%?,?41%?,?39%?,?10%?,?10%8 8?2023-2025?175?195?200GW?20%?2025?12.4%?9.0%?研?Wind?务?0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%05101

4、5202530352002120222023E2024E2025E?-?%?-?%?9 9?研?1010?研?CNKI?Wind?/?油?油?6%11%16%21%26%31%36%20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?20?%?1111?务?1021?VS?GDP?0000040000?研?Wind?12?12?1+X+Y?VS?10%?0%?1?X?Y?1313?1414?VS?VS?1?

5、AGC?2?-?-?68?3?-?模?-?研?CNKI?+?1516162023?9?26?Tuesday?1717?研?CNESA?2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E!#$%-&(GWh)1.17 1.76 3.87 14.49 21.47 34.50!#$%-)*(GWh)1.17 1.76 3.87 19.32 26.84 51.75!#$%-+(GWh)1.17 1.76 3.87 36.23 48.31 69.00!,#$%(GWh)1.011.053.394.756.739.41-./$-)*(GWh)2.18 2.81 7.27 24.07 33.57

6、61.16!01234.56-)*(GWh)3.28 6.09 13.35 37.42 71.00 132.16 1818?22?22?务?61%?研?务?9.5%29.5%61.0%6.7%31.6%61.7%78!,98:!;49%43%8%!#!,#?#1919?务?IRR?务?IRR?2000/1700/1400?/KWh?IRR?5.3%/5.5%/5.6%?务?/?IRR?5.8%/5.9%/6.1%?务?IRR?研?IRR?(?/W)3.63.73.83.94.04.14.2?h?12915.39%5.14%4.90%4.68%4.46%4.25%4.04%13916.27%6.

7、00%5.75%5.50%5.27%5.05%4.84%14917.14%6.85%6.58%6.32%6.07%5.83%5.60%IRR?(?/W)3.63.73.83.94.04.14.2?/KWh?20005.86%5.59%5.32%5.06%4.82%4.58%4.35%17006.04%5.75%5.48%5.22%4.96%4.72%4.48%14006.21%5.92%5.64%5.37%5.11%4.86%4.62%IRR?(?/W)3.63.73.83.94.04.14.2?/KWh?20006.32%6.04%5.76%5.50%5.24%5.00%4.76%17006

8、.50%6.21%5.93%5.66%5.40%5.14%4.90%14006.68%6.38%6.09%5.82%5.55%5.29%5.05%?1?(?)?/?0.5?/KWh?研?IRR?11%?25%?1?/Wh?(1)?2000?/KWh?10%?2025?1503?/KWh?5%;?20?/KWh?1.15%(2)?6000?/?1?*2?模?300?20?(3)?90%?1.2%?IRR?油?/?/KWh?82000?/KWh?2000?10%?/?/KWh?0.2-3.93%-4.22%-4.49%-4.74%?200.3-1.47%-1.92%-2.34

9、%-2.74%?/?3000.40.66%0.08%-0.47%-0.98%?/KWh?20?1.15%0.52.57%1.87%1.21%0.59%?%?5%0.64.32%3.52%2.76%2.05%?%?90%0.75.97%5.06%4.21%3.41%?%?1.2%0.807.52%6.52%5.58%4.69%?/?10.99.01%7.91%6.89%5.92%?/?h?2110.45%9.26%8.14%7.10%?研?Wind?1?(?)?/?0.6?/KWh?的?0.9?/KWh?IRR11%?(1)?2000?/KWh?10%?2025?1503?/KWh?5%;?20

10、?/KWh?1.15%?(2)?6000?/?2?*2?模?/?600?10?(3)?90%?2.5%?IRR?油?/?/KWh?82000?/KWh?2000?10%?/?/KWh?0.2-9.31%-10.10%-10.83%-11.52%?100.3-4.34%-5.41%-6.43%-7.38%?/?6000.4-0.07%-1.39%-2.63%-3.81%?/KWh?20?1.15%0.53.75%2.21%0.76%-0.61%?%?5%0.67.26%5.52%3.88%2.33%?%?90%0.710.55%8.61%6.79%5.08%?%?2.5%0

11、.813.68%11.55%9.55%7.67%?/?20.916.68%14.36%12.18%10.14%?/?h?2119.57%17.07%14.72%12.52%?研?Wind?2?/?150300?/KWh?/?0.5?/Wh?/?225?/KWh?IRR 11%?1?/?(1)?2000?/KWh?5%?20?/KWh?1.15%?(2)?6000?/?1?*2?模?/?300?20?(3)?90%?1.2%?(4)?/?150300?/KWh?/?2022.4?务?260?/kWh?2022.9?300?/MW?2?219?/KWh?2022.6?2022?99.1?/KWh?

12、/?2022.9?2022?务?2?研?Wind?2?/?150300?/KWh?/?0.5?/Wh?/?225?/KWh?IRR 11%?1?/?(1)?2000?/KWh?5%?20?/KWh?1.15%?(2)?6000?/?1?*2?模?/?300?20?(3)?90%?1.2%?(4)?/?150300?/KWh?IRR?/?油?/?/?/KWh?3300?/KWh?2000?/?/KWh?0.24.82%6.63%8.29%9.91%11.42%?200.36.01%7.75%9.36%10.94%12.42%?/?3000.47.16%8.84%10.41%

13、11.95%13.41%?/KWh?20?1.15%0.58.27%9.91%11.43%12.95%14.38%?%?5%0.69.35%10.95%12.44%13.93%15.34%?%?90%0.710.41%11.97%13.44%14.90%16.30%?%?1.2%0.811.45%12.97%14.42%15.86%17.24%?/?10.912.46%13.96%15.39%16.82%18.18%?/?h?2113.46%14.94%16.35%17.76%19.11%?研?Wind?3?(1)?2000?/KWh?5%;?20?/KWh?1.15%?(2)?/?1?*2?

14、20?2?300?8?(?3%?)?(3)?90%?(4)?/?务?225?/Wh?(5)?510?/MW?0246810121416?/MW?研?Wind?3?(1)?2000?/KWh?5%;?20?/KWh?1.15%?(2)?/?1?*2?20?2?300?8?(?3%?)?(3)?90%?(4)?/?务?225?/Wh?(5)?510?/MW?IRR?油?/?/MW?5.06.37.58.810.0?/KWh?2000?/?/KWh?0.29.15%11.79%14.14%16.63%18.87%?80.310.38%12.97%15.30%17.75%19.97%?3000.411

15、.59%14.14%16.44%18.87%21.06%?/KWh?20?1.15%0.512.78%15.30%17.57%19.97%22.14%?%?5%0.613.95%16.44%18.68%21.06%23.21%?%?90%0.715.11%17.57%19.78%22.14%24.27%?%?3.0%0.816.25%18.68%20.88%23.21%25.33%?/?10.917.38%19.78%21.96%24.27%26.38%?/?h?2118.50%20.88%23.03%25.33%27.42%?/?/KWh?225?min?2?研?Wind?262727?去?

16、20102020?54%?导?22?3.3%?25%?26%?研?Wind?务?28287?2022?100%?去?22?21?65%?2021?34%?7?100%?133.5%?89.5%?研?Wind?务?-100%0%100%200%300%400%?2929 PJM?导?30%?2015?务?70%?PJM?2015?研?PJM?10M123M15?30%?3030 PJM?PJM?10?PJM?1?88.5%?研?EIA?PJM?1?88.5%?310.322.615.52.41?12?24?4?0500300350PJM?(MW)0%20%40%60%80%100%?CAISO?PJM?1?12?24?4?31?去?FERC?841?VS?务?MISO?够?CAISO?/?够?a?MISO?SPP?4?1?2?0.5?b?ELCC?c?MRI?去?3232?1+X+Y?+?+?+?/?+?的?/?/?2023/9/2233?2023/9/2234?2023/9/2235?2023/9/2236?2023/9/2237