1、Global Resources Outlook 2024Bend the trendPathways to a liveable planet as resource use spikes 2024 United Nations Environment Programme ISBN:978-92-807-4128-5Job number:DTI/2618/NADOI:wedocs.unep.org/20.500.11822/44901This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educa

2、tional or non-profit services without special permission from the copyright holder,provided acknowledgement of the source is made.The United Nations Environment Programme would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source.No use of this publication may be mad

3、e for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the United Nations Environment Programme.Applications for such permission,with a statement of the purpose and extent of the reproduction,should be addressed to the Director,Communication Division,United

4、Nations Environment Programme,unep-communication-directorun.org.Disclaimers The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any cou

5、ntry,territory,city or area or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.Mention of a commercial company or product in this document does not imply endorsement by the United Nations Environment Programme or the authors.The use of information from this document

6、for publicity or advertising is not permitted.Trademark names and symbols are used in an editorial fashion with no intention on infringement of trademark or copyright laws.The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations

7、Environment Programme.We regret any errors or omissions that may have been unwittingly made.Maps,photos and illustrations as specified Suggested citation:United Nations Environment Programme(2024):Global Resources Outlook 2024:Bend the Trend Pathways to a liveable planet as resource use spikes.Inter

8、national Resource Panel.Nairobi.https:/wedocs.unep.org/20.500.11822/44901URL:unep.org/resources/Global-Resource-Outlook-2024 resourcepanel.org/reports/global-resources-outlook-2024Bend the trendPathways to a liveable planet as resource use spikesGlobal Resources Outlook 2024i|UNEP|Global Resources O

9、utlook 2024Acknowledgements Developed under the guidance of the International Resource Panel Co-Chairs Janez Potonik and Izabella Teixeira.Lead Coordinating Author:Hans BruyninckxLead Chapter Authors:Hans Bruyninckx,Steve Hatfield-Dodds,Stefanie Hellweg,Heinz Schandl.Contributing Authors by Chapter:

10、Chapter 1:Hans Bruyninckx,Beatriz Vidal,Hala Razian,Rebecca Nohl.Chapter 2:Heinz Schandl,Raymundo Marcos-Martinez,Jim West,Yingying Lu,Alessio Miatto,Stephan Lutter,Stefan Giljum,Manfred Lenzen,Mengyu Li,Livia Cabernard,Marina Fischer-Kowalski.Chapter 3:Stefanie Hellweg,Livia Cabernard,Viktoras Kuli

11、onis,Christopher Oberschelp,Stephan Pfister.Chapter 4:Steve Hatfield-Dodds,Yingying Lu,Ray Marcos-Martinez,Heinz Schandl,Ester Van der Voet,Detlef van Vuuren,Livia Cabernard,Sebastiaan Deetman,Vassilis Daioglou,Oreane Edelenbosch,Stefan Frank,Petr Havlik,Stefanie Hellweg,Manfred Lenzen,Mengyu Li,Ama

12、nda Palazzo,George Verikios,Kaj van der Wijst.Chapter 5:Hans Bruyninckx,Beatriz Vidal,Rebecca Nohl,Hala Razian,Paul Ekins,Julius Gatune,Steve Hatfield-Dodds,Stefanie Hellweg,Jeff Herrick,Peder Jensen,Joanna Kulczycka,Iris Lassus,Reid Lifset,Eeva Primmer,Jeannette Sanchez,Heinz Schandl,Namita Sharma,

13、Mark Swilling,Anders Wijkman,Bing Zhu,Mike Asquith,Elias Ayuk,Vered Blass,Shao Feng Chen,Akshay Jain,Ana Jesus and Diogo Aparecido Lopes Silva.Global Resources Outlook 2024|UNEP|iiThis report was written under the auspices of the International Resource Panel(IRP)of the United Nations Environment Pro

14、gramme(UNEP).Thanks are extended to Janez Potonik and Izabella Teixeira,co-chairs of the IRP,and the members of the IRP and its Steering Committee.The authors are thankful to the Working Group Members,especially:Anthony Chiu,Paul Ekins,Jeff Herrick,Joanna Kulczycka,Michael Obersteiner,Eeva Primmer,A

15、nu Ramaswami,Mark Swilling,Ester van der Voet,Helga Weisz and Anders Wijkman.The authors likewise express their gratitude for the guidance received by the Policy Response Drafting Group convened to support development of Chapter 5,including:Elias Ayuk,Julius Gatune,Maarten Hajer,Reid Lifset,Lourdes

16、Jeannette Sanchez Zurita and Bing Zhu,as well as the GRO Working Group members Eeva Primmer,Mark Swilling and Anders Wijkman.The authors are also thankful to the contributors of country profiles(available at www.resourcepanel.org):Kwabena O.Asubonteng,Elias Ayuk,Chika Aoki-Suzuki,Joanna Kulczycka,Vi

17、ktoras Kulionis,Philip Nuss,Cssia Ugaya and Ran Yagasa.The authors would like to thank Raymond Brandes,Garrete Clark,Sofie Clausen,Andrew Fanning,Andrea Hinwood,Paolo Marengo,Giulio Mattioli,Mona Mohammed,Julia Okatz,Fabienne Pierre,Rula Qalyoubi,Julia Steinberger,Gina Torregroza and Jinhua Zhang fo

18、r their inputs.The authors are thankful to the Review Editor,IRP member,Keisuke Nansai for his leadership and support in the external review process.They are also grateful for the External Expert Review provided by Megan Cole,Ichir Daigo,Damien Giurco,RyuKoide,Diago Aparecido Lopes Silva,Paul Lucas,

19、Kate Meyer,Shinsuke Murakami,Rdiger Schaldach,Jyri Seppl,Tomohiro Tasaki,Carlos Andres Trujillo Valencia,Francesca Verones,Hongxia Wang,Ranran Wang and Yutao Wang,and other anonymous expert reviewers.The authors also wish to thank the Centre for Environment and Development for the Arab Region and Eu

20、rope(CEDARE)and UNEP Early Warning and Assessment Division for their contribution in facilitating the use of the online Review Editing Analytical Database of the Global Environment Outlook(GEO-READ)system for the Global Resources Outlook external expert review process.The authors are grateful to the

21、 Secretariat of the International Resource Panel hosted by the United Nations Environment Programme,and to Hala Razian in particular,for the coordination and technical support provided for the preparation of this report.The authors would also like to thank Beatriz Vidal,Peder Jensen and Rebecca Nohl

22、 for their support in the coordination of the report.Production:UNESCODesign and layout:Katharine MugridgeThis project has received funding from the European Unions Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101018010.iii|UNEP|Global Resources Outlook 2024List of abbrevi

23、ationsBATbest available technologyBECCSBio-energy with carbon capture and storageCBDConvention on Biological DiversityCCScarbon capture and storageCTUcomparative toxic unitsDALYsDisability Adjusted Life YearsDEdomestic extractionDMCdomestic material consumptionDPSIRDrivers-Pressures-State-Impact-Res

24、ponseEECCAEastern Europe,Caucasus and Central Asia regionFAOFood and Agriculture Organization of the United NationsG7Group of SevenG20Group of TwentyGDPgross domestic productGHGgreenhouse gasesGROGlobal Resources OutlookGtgigatonGWPGlobal Warming PotentialsHDIHuman Development IndexIHDIinequality-ad

25、justed human development indexIEAInternational Energy AgencyIPATImpact=Population x Affluence x TechnologyIPCCIntergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeIPBESIntergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem ServicesIRPInternational Resource PanelLCAlife cycle assessmentMFmateria

26、l footprintMFAmaterial flows analysisMImaterial intensityMJmegajouleMtmillion tonsOECDOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentPDFpotentially disappeared fraction of speciesPMparticulate matterPTBphysical trade balanceR&Dresearch and developmentRTBraw material trade balanceSBTsScience-b

27、ased TargetsSCPsustainable consumption and productionSDGSustainable Development GoalsSSPShared Socioeconomic PathwaysTWhTeraWatt hoursUN United NationsUNCCDUnited Nations Convention to Combat DesertificationUNCHEUnited Nations Conference on the Human EnvironmentUNCTADUnited Nations Conference on Tra

28、de and DevelopmentUNEPUnited Nations Environment ProgrammeUNFCCCUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeUNICEFUnited Nations Childrens FundUNIDOUnited Nations Industrial Development OrganizationUSAUnited States of AmericaWHOWorld Health OrganizationGlobal Resources Outlook 2024|UNEP|ivG

29、lossary1 1 This builds on the IRP glossary,https:/www.resourcepanel.org/glossary.2 https:/www.fao.org/in-action/sustainable-and-circular-bioeconomy/en/#:text=The%20bioeconomy%20is%20the%20production%2C%20utilization%2C%20conservation%2C%20and,a%20sustainable%20economy%20%28Global%20Bioeconomy%20Summ

30、it%20Communiqu%C3%A9%2C%202020%293 https:/ decoupling:Absolute decoupling is a shorthand description of a situation in which resource productivity grows faster than economic activity(GDP)and resource use is absolutely declining.See also:decoupling,relative decoupling and impact decoupling.Bioeconomy

31、:This refers to all sectors and systems that rely on biomass including biological resources(animals,plants,micro-organisms and derived biomass,including organic waste),their functions and principles.It includes and interlinks:land and marine ecosystems and the services they provide;all primary produ

32、ction sectors that use and produce biological resources(agriculture,forestry,fisheries and aquaculture);and all economic and industrial sectors that use biological resources and processes to produce food,feed,bio-based products,energy and services(adapted from the European Union(EU)Bioeconomy Strate

33、gy(COM/2018/673).It also refers to conservation and regeneration of biological resources,including related knowledge,science,technology and innovation to provide solutions(see Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FAO,2 based on Global Bioeconomy Summit Communiqu 2020).3 This GRO r

34、eport considers that the sustainable use of biomass must be based on prioritizing the use of biomass for maximum well-being and minimal impact.Biomass:Crops,grazed biomass,fodder crops,wood,wild catch and harvest.Capital formation:Capital formation refers to additions of capital stock,such as the bu

35、ild-up of infrastructure,equipment and transportation assets.In multi-regional input-output assessments,this is reported as part of the final demand per sector and region.Circular economy:The circular economy is one where the value of products,materials and resources is maintained for as long as pos

36、sible in the economy,and the generation of waste is minimized.This is in contrast to a linear economy,which is based on the“extract,make and dispose”model of production and consumption.Consumption:The use of products and services for(domestic)final demand,namely for households,government and investm

37、ents.The consumption of resources can be calculated by attributing the life-cycle-wide resource requirements to those products and services(for example by input-output calculation).Consumption perspective:It allocates the use of natural resources or the related impacts throughout the supply chain to

38、 the region where these resources,incorporated in various commodities,are finally consumed by industries,governments and households.Cradle-to-grave:Denotes the system boundaries of a full life-cycle assessment study,considering all life-cycle stages,including raw material extraction,production,trans

39、port,use and final disposal.Also termed“life-cycle perspective”.Disability Adjusted Life Years(DALYs):Measure for health impacts(referring to particulate matter health impacts in this report).It quantifies the amount of life years lost or lived with health impairment.Based on World Health Organizati

40、on WHO 2019.Decoupling:Decoupling is when resource use or some environmental pressure or impact grows at a slower rate than the economic activity causing it(relative decoupling)or declines while the economic activity continues to grow(absolute decoupling).Demand-side measures:Policies and programmes

41、 to influence the demand for goods and/or services.In the energy sector,demand-side management aims to reduce demand for electricity and other forms of energy required to deliver energy services.Source:Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC 2018a.Drivers-pressures-state-impacts-response(DPSI

42、R)framework:The DPSIR framework aims to provide a step-wise description of the causal chain linking economic activity(drivers),pressures(such as emissions of pollutants),changes in the state of the environment(including land cover change)and impacts(diminished human health,biodiversity loss and othe

43、rs).This then leads v|UNEP|Global Resources Outlook 2024to a societal response aimed at adapting those driving forces to reduce impacts.It should not be understood as a reactive governance approach that waits for irreversible changes to the environment before responding,but rather an approach that s

44、upports preventative action and that can be used as an analytical tool for linking human-nature systems in future modelling to help steer a transition.Employment:This term denotes the number of full-time equivalent positions(used in Chapter 3).Environmental impacts:Harmful effects of human activitie

45、s on ecosystems and human health.The present report includes the following methods and impact categories(see Table 3.1 for a full list):1.Climate change impacts:Emissions contributing to climate change(such as CO2,CH4,N2O)are weighed according to the concentration change they produce in the atmosphe

46、re multiplied with the radiative forcing of the respective gas,a substance property describing how much energy the substance can absorb.This effect of altering the energy balance of the earth is accumulated over a defined time horizon(typically 100 years)and published by IPCC as“Global Warming Poten

47、tials,GWPs”(IPCC 2013).Impacts are called climate change impacts,but are also known as a carbon footprint or greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions.All emissions are expressed as kg CO2-equivalents.2.Ecotoxicity:Emissions of toxic substances are transported,degraded and transferred between various environment

48、al compartments(air,water and soil),where they may lead to direct exposure(including inhalation of air with pollutants)or indirect exposure(such as crop uptake of pollutants from soil and ingestion of crop as food).Toxic effects may occur after exposure.3.Biodiversity loss:Land use or eutrophication

49、 reduces natural habitat size or alters the nutrient supply,thereby degrading ecosystems and leading to species extinctions.4.Water stress:Water stress refers to the impacts of water consumption on water as a flow resource.Additionally,absolute water scarcity(availability per area)is considered to c

50、ombine natural and human-induced water stress in a single indicator.Based on Boulay et al.(2018).Extraction:amount of material extracted from the natural environment for use in the economy.It includes extractive activities such as mining,as well as agricultural and wood harvest.Fair consumption spac

51、e:The need to curb overconsumption while ensuring consumption opportunities needed for fulfilling basic needs,decent living standards and human dignity.Source:United Nations Environmental Programme UNEP 2022b.Footprints:Footprints can measure different types of pressure and impact including resource

52、 use(such as materials and water),pollution emissions and environmental impacts(climate change,water scarcity,biodiversity losses and so forth).In the context of the International Resource Panel(IRP)flagship report,Global Resources Outlook 2019,the term footprints is used to represent the whole syst

53、em of environmental pressures and impacts exerted by human activity,including direct pressures and impacts occurring within the geographical boundary where the activity occurs and indirect/or supply chain pressures and impacts inside and outside(transboundary ones).Fossil fuels:Coal,anthracite,ligni

54、te,peat,gas,oil and tar sands.Health impacts:Harmful effects of human activities on the health of a population.In the present report,the environmental health impacts of particulate matter(PM)were assessed(as the latter is the main cause of the former).This includes cardiovascular and respiratory dis

55、eases caused by fine primary particulate matter emissions or secondary particulate matter,which is formed from precursor gases transformed to particulate matter in the atmosphere(SOx,NOx and ammonia).Impact assessment:This is used interchangeably with the term life-cycle impact assessment.It denotes

56、 a“phase of life cycle assessment aimed at understanding and evaluating the magnitude and significance of the potential environmental impacts”of a system(according to the International Organization for Standardization(ISO 14040).It links environmental impacts to emissions and primary resource use.Li

57、fe-cycle impact assessment is defined as the phase of life-cycle assessment(see below)aimed at understanding and evaluating the magnitude and significance of the potential environmental impacts of a product system.Based on ISO 14044(2006).Impact decoupling:Impact decoupling refers to a slower rate o

58、f growth in environmental impacts than in the economic activity causing it(relative decoupling)or an absolute decline in impacts while the economic activity continues to grow(absolute decoupling).Impact decoupling from resource-use growth refers to a slower rate of growth in environmental impacts th

59、an resource use(relative decoupling)or an absolute decline in impacts while resource use continues to grow(absolute decoupling).Income groups:This report provides analysis based on income groups.The income group classification comes from the United Nations,which is based on thresholds established by

60、 the World Bank to ensure compatibility with classifications used in other international organizations.There are four income group categories:high-income,upper Global Resources Outlook 2024|UNEP|vimiddle-income,lower middle-income and low-income(see Annex 1).These categories are used in all assessme

61、nts of the report.However,for Chapter 4,income grouping relies on the country and regional groups of the underlying models(see section 8.4 in the annex).Input-output(I-O)method:Input-output tables describe the interdependence of all production and consumption activities in an economy.In an input-out

62、put model,the economy is represented by industry sectors(including resource extraction,processing,manufacturing and service sectors)and final demand categories(including households,government,investment,export and stock changes).Integrating information on emissions and resource use caused by sectors

63、 and final demand allows environmentally extended IO tables(eeIOT)to be provided.These can be used to calculate environmental pressures induced by production sectors or final demand categories in a way a similar to value-added or labour.Just transition:While definitions vary across thematic and geog

64、raphic contexts,a just transition means greening the economy in a way that is as fair and inclusive as possible to everyone concerned,creating decent work opportunities and leaving no one behind(International Labour Organization(ILO).4 According to this GRO report,addressing the structurally unequal

65、 distribution of costs and benefits of our current models of resource use is key to a just transition towards sustainable resource use.A just transition also relates to the principles of sufficiency(see below),which call for an increase of resource use in low-development contexts to promote dignifie

66、d living standards,and the reduction of resource use in the context of higher consumption footprint.A just transition requires compensation for the actors and communities that will be negatively affected by the actions deployed for the transition.Life-Cycle Assessment:Life-Cycle Assessment(LCA)is th

67、e assessment of impacts associated with all life stages of a product or service from cradle to grave(see definition above).Life-cycle perspective:A life cycle perspective includes consideration of the environmental aspects of an organizations activities,products and services that it can control or i

68、nfluence.Stages in a life cycle include acquisition of raw materials,design,production,transportation/delivery,use,end of life treatment and final disposal(ISO n.d.).Also termed“cradle-to-grave”.Materials:Materials are substances or compounds.They are used as inputs for production or manufacturing b

69、ecause of their properties.A material can be defined at different stages of its life cycle:unprocessed(or raw)materials,intermediate materials and finished materials.For example,4 https:/www.ilo.org/global/topics/green-jobs/WCMS_824102/lang-en/index.htmiron ore is mined and processed into crude iron

70、,which in turn is refined and processed into steel.Each of these can be called materials.Steel is then used as an input in many other industries to make finished products.Throughout the report,assessments refer to material resources(biomass,fossil fuels,metals and non-metallic minerals,see below),wi

71、th the term often shortened to“materials”.Material resources:Biomass,fossil fuels,metals and non-metallic minerals.Throughout the report,assessments refer to material resources as“materials”(see above).Material flow analysis:Material flow analysis(MFA)comprises a group of methods to analyse the phys

72、ical flows of materials into,through and out of a given system.This can be applied at different levels of scale including products,firms,sectors,regions and whole economies.The analysis may focus on individual substance or material flows,or aggregated flows such as resource groups(fossil fuels,metal

73、s or minerals).Economy-wide MFA(ewMFA)is applied to entire economies and provides the basis for producing indicators on the metabolic performance of countries in terms of material inputs and consumption(such as Direct Material Input(DMI),Domestic Material Consumption(DMC),Total Material Requirement(

74、TMR)and Total Material Consumption(TMC).Metals:Metals are elements(or mixtures of elements)characterized by specific properties such as conductivity of electricity.Major engineering metals include aluminium,copper,iron,lead,steel and zinc.Precious metals include gold,palladium,platinum,rhodium and s

75、ilver,while specialty metals include antimony,cadmium,chromium,cobalt,magnesium,manganese,mercury,molybdenum,nickel,tin,titanium and tungsten.Because metals are elements,they are not degradable and cannot be depleted in an absolute sense:once in the environment they do not disappear.However,some,lik

76、e heavy metals,may accumulate in soils,sediments and organisms with impacts on human and ecosystem health.Multilateral Environmental Agreement(MEA):Legally binding instruments between two or more nation States,dealing with environmental aspects.Most MEAs have been adopted after the 1972 United Natio

77、ns Conference on the Human Environment(UNCHE).The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC),Convention on Biological Diversity(CBD)and the Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD)are some of the most significant examples of MEAs at global level,forming the international legal

78、basis for global efforts to address these environmental issues.vii|UNEP|Global Resources Outlook 2024Non-metallic minerals:Materials such as sand,gravel,limestone,gypsum and clay that are mostly used for construction but also for industrial applications.Planetary boundaries:Estimate of a safe operat

79、ing space for humanity with respect to the functioning of key Earth System processes,referring to biophysical processes of the Earth System that determine the self-regulating capacity of the planet.According to this concept,the boundary level should not be transgressed if unacceptable global environ

80、mental change is to avoided(in terms of the risks humanity faces in the transition of the planet from the Holocene to the Anthropocene).The original work by Rockstrm et al.(2009)refers to nine planetary boundaries.Production perspective:It allocates the use of natural resources or the impacts relate

81、d to natural resource extraction and processing to the location where they physically occur(Wood et al.2018).Provisioning system:Recently emerged and increasingly relevant concept that groups together related ecological,technological,institutional and social elements that interact to transform natur

82、al resources to satisfy foreseen human needs.Using this approach means that resource use and related impacts are allocated to the systems where final consumption takes place.Source:Fanning et al.(2020)Relative decoupling:In relative decoupling the growth rate of the environmentally relevant paramete

83、r(such as resources used or environmental impact)is lower than the growth rate of the relevant economic indicator(for example GDP).Resource efficiency:In general terms,resource efficiency describes the overarching goals of decoupling increasing human well-being and economic growth while lowering the

84、 amount of resources required and negative environmental impacts associated with resource use.In other words,this means doing better with less.In technical terms,resource efficiency means achieving higher outputs with lower inputs and can be reflected by indicators such as resource productivity(incl

85、uding GDP/resource consumption).Ambitions to achieve a resource-efficient economy therefore refer to systems of production and consumption that have been optimized with regard to resource use.This includes strategies of dematerialization(savings,reduction of material and energy use)and re-materializ

86、ation(reuse,remanufacturing and recycling)in a systems-wide approach to a circular economy,as well as infrastructure transitions within sustainable urbanization.Resource productivity:As an indicator on the macro-economic level,total resource productivity is calculated as GDP/TMR(Organisation for Eco

87、nomic Co-operation and Development OECD 2008).It may be presented together with indicators of labour or capital productivity.Resource productivity is the inverse of resource intensity.Resources:Resources including land,water and materials are seen as parts of the natural world that can be used in ec

88、onomic activities to produce goods and services.Material resources(see above)are biomass,fossil fuels,metals and non-metallic minerals.Resource decoupling:Resource decoupling means delinking the rate of use of primary resources from economic activity.Absolute resource decoupling would mean that the

89、Total Material Requirement of a country decreases while the economy grows.It follows the same principle as dematerialization,that is implying the use of less material,energy,water and land to achieve the same(or better)economic output.Resource-intensive provision system:Provisioning systems with hig

90、h demand for resources.Safe operating space:Safe operating space is a concept developed by Rockstrm et al.(2009)that reflects a corridor for human development where the risks of irreversible and significant damage to global life-sustaining systems seem tolerably low.Shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP

91、):SSPs are socioeconomic narratives that outline broad characteristics of the global future and country-level population,global domestic product and urbanization projections.Such SSPs are not scenarios themselves,but their building blocks(Riahi et al.2016).Sufficiency:Concept gaining traction in the

92、 policy agenda which,from a resource perspective,refers to the need to:increase resource use in low-development contexts to enable dignified living,while reducing consumption levels in those parts of the population who live well above the capacity of the planet(adapted from Fanning et al.2022).This

93、concept goes back to the 1972 UNCHE Conference in Stockholm,Sweden,which take human dignity as a central concept and explicitly links it to the use of natural resources and the state of the environment.This refers to differences between countries but also between different fractions of the populatio

94、n within countries.Sustainable consumption and production:At the Oslo Symposium in 1994,the Norwegian Ministry of Environment defined sustainable consumption and production as:the use of services and related products that respond to basic needs and bring a better quality of life while minimizing the

95、 use of natural resources and toxic materials,as well as the emissions of waste and pollutants over the life cycle of the service or product(so as not to jeopardize the needs of future generations).Ensuring sustainable consumption and production patterns has become an explicit goal of the United Nat

96、ions Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)(Goal number 12),with the specific target of achieving sustainable management and Global Resources Outlook 2024|UNEP|viiiefficient use of natural resources by 2030.The concept thus combines with economic and environmental processes to support the design of pol

97、icy instruments and tools in a way that minimizes problem shifting and achieves multiple objectives such as SDGs simultaneously.Sustainable resource management:Sustainable resource management means both(a)ensuring that consumption does not exceed levels of sustainable supply and(b)ensuring that the

98、Earths systems are able to perform their natural functions(such as preventing disruptions like in the case of greenhouse gases(GHGs)affecting the ability of the atmosphere to regulate the Earths temperature).It requires monitoring and management at various scales.The aim of sustainable resource mana

99、gement is to ensure the long-term material basis of societies in a way that prevents resource extraction or waste disposal/emissions from exceeding the thresholds of a safe operating space.Systemic:Features or developments that affect the whole organization of an entity,considering the interlinkages

100、 and interdependencies between its different elements.Systems approach:This approach is derived from systems thinking,which is used to identify and understand systems,as well as to predict behaviours and devise modifications to produce desired effects(Arnold and Wade 2015).This report applies the DP

101、SIR Framework to assess the linkages between the use of natural resources in society,through production-consumption systems and essential infrastructure and food provisioning services,as they impact economic development,human well-being and the environment(as reflected in multiple SDGs).The system a

102、pproach(1)considers the total material throughput of the economy from resource extraction and harvest to final disposal,and their environmental impacts,(2)relates these flows to activities in production and consumption across spatial scale,time,nexus and boundary dimensions,and(3)searches for levera

103、ge points for multi-beneficial changes(technological,social or organizational),all encouraged by policies to achieve sustainable production/consumption and multi-scale sustainable resource management.Trade-off:Trade-off describes a situation where one option occurs at the expense of another.The Reso

104、urce Panel describes trade-offs between environmental impacts(such as renewable energy technology and critical metal consumption),as well as social,ecological and economic objectives(such as cropland expansion and biodiversity loss).Transition:Process towards a transformation.Transformation:Overall

105、change or outcome of large-scale shifts in technological,economic and social systems.Value added:Value created through the production of goods and services.It is calculated by subtracting the cost of intermediate consumption from the total output value.Value added also serves as a measure of the inc

106、ome available for the contributions of labour and capital to the production process.Value chain:It is comprised of all the activities that provide or receive value from designing,making,distributing,retailing and consuming a product(or providing the service from a product),including the extraction a

107、nd provision of raw materials,as well as the activities after its useful service life.In this sense,the value chain covers all stages in a products life,from supply of raw materials through to disposal after use,and encompasses the activities linked to value creation such as business models,investme

108、nts and regulation.All stages in the value chain(and in the transport of intermediate and finished products between the value chain stages)require raw materials and energy,while also introducing emissions into the environment.In addition,the value chain is comprised of the actors undertaking the act

109、ivities and the stakeholders that can influence the activities.The chain thus incorporates not only the physical processes,such as farms and factories,but also the business models and the way products are designed,promoted and offered to consumers(based on UNEP 2021a).Well-being decoupling:Decouplin

110、g(see above)considering well-being metrics instead of economic activity.ix|UNEP|Global Resources Outlook 2024ForewordNatural resources are the basis on which all economies and societies are built,making their sustainable management critical to ending poverty and reducing inequalities.They are also e

111、ssential to drive the transition to net-zero.To stay below a 2C temperature rise by 2050,we will need over three billion tonnes of energy transition minerals and metals for wind power,solar and more.Aiming for 1.5C to maximize climate justice would mean even greater demand.Right now,however,resource

112、s are extracted,processed,consumed and thrown away in a way that drives the triple planetary crisis the crisis of climate change,the crisis of nature and biodiversity loss,and the crisis of pollution and waste.We must start using natural resources sustainably and responsibly.The 2024 edition of the

113、Global Resources Outlook,from the International Resource Panel,shows that it is both possible and profitable to decouple economic growth from environmental impacts and resource use.In fact,sustainable resource use and consumption can reduce resource use and environmental impacts in wealthier countri

114、es,while creating the space for resource use to grow where it is most needed.It is important to note that the circular models we must follow are not just about recycling;they are about keeping materials in use for as long as possible,and rethinking how we design and deliver goods as well as services

115、,thereby creating new business models.If the policies and shifts outlined in this report are followed,the 2060 picture will be significantly rosier than under current models.We could have a global GDP three per cent larger than predicted and reduced economic equalities.Growth in material use could f

116、all by 30 per cent.Greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced by more than 80 per cent.Such results would be a huge win for people and planet.The bottom line is that sustainable and responsible resource use and consumption is a key enabling factor for the success of virtually every international agre

117、ement and initiative aimed at carving out a better future from the new Global Framework on Chemicals and upcoming legally binding instrument on plastic pollution to the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals.The scientific community is united about the urgent need for decisive policie

118、s to enable a sustainable future.We need bold and immediate actions at scale to rebalance humanitys relationship with the natural world and the resources it provides.I call on all policymakers to read this report and act on its findings as part of a united global push to make this world a better,mor

119、e sustainable home for everyone.Inger AndersenExecutive Director United Nations Environment ProgrammeGlobal Resources Outlook 2024|UNEP|xPrefaceThe messages from this report could not be clearer:It is no longer whether a transformation towards global sustainable resource consumption and production i

120、s necessary,but how to urgently make it happen.The scale of impacts linked to the way material resources are extracted and processed for our global economy are astounding over 55 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions driving us to the brink of climate catastrophe,up to 40 per cent of particulate matt

121、er health related impacts costing over 200 million disability-adjusted life years every year,and over 90 per cent of total land use related biodiversity loss that is the lynchpin of vibrant ecosystems and life on Earth.If not addressed,the impacts of our resource use will derail all hope of meeting

122、Multilateral Environmental Agreements like the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification and the Convention on Biological Diversity.Despite this,our insatiable use of resources has tripled over the last fifty years.As nations contin

123、ue their urbanisation and industrialization,and the global middle class expands,there is a corresponding uptick in material use,waste,emissions,as well as water and land consumption.If we do not change,we could see resource use up by 60 per cent from 2020 levels by 2060.Our current deeply unsustaina

124、ble systems of consumption and production will cumulate in catastrophic impacts on the earth systems and ecological processes that underpin human well-being and the diversity of life on our planet.This can,and must,change.We should not accept that meeting human needs has to be resource intensive and

125、 we must stop stimulating extraction based economic success.This report demonstrates that compared to current trends,it is still possible to reduce resource use while growing the economy,reducing inequality,improving well-being and dramatically reducing environmental impacts.Based on the outcomes of

126、 state-of-the-art scenario modelling,we outline five critical actions at all levels of governance that are essential to enable transitions to resource-efficient and sustainable consumption and production.These changes across the most resource-intensive systems that deliver shelter,nutrition,mobility

127、 and energy can improve well-being for all within planetary boundaries.Designing solutions for provisioning systems incentivizes cross-sector innovation.This systems approach is a foundation of building the future-fit socio-economic models that use less resources and multiply the co-benefits for peo

128、ple and planet.A monumental push towards sustainable resource management and enhancements in resource productivity is imperative.This must go hand-in-hand with responsible consumption,facilitated by strategic infrastructure investments,to guide the global economy towards sustainable and equitable ut

129、ilization.These findings are strongly aligned with the conclusions of other recognized science-policy panels.Scientists bring the best knowledge and illustrate potential pathways forward in increasingly bold manner.For UNEA-6,we hope that these findings will inform countries and spur action based on

130、 systemic plans and pledges with a central focus on resource use.With decisive action,political courage and bold boardroom decisions,a sustainable future meaning a decent life for all within planetary boundaries is possible.Janez Potonik and Izabella Teixeira IRP Co-ChairsGuitar photographer Shutter

131、stockGlobal Resources Outlook 2024|UNEP|xiiTable of ContentsAcknowledgements.iList of abbreviations.iiiGlossary.ivForeword .ixPreface.xKey messages .xivChapter 1:Introduction Transformation in resource consumption and production is possible and requires immediate and decisive action.1Main findings.2

132、1.1.Introduction.31.2.Sustainable and equitable natural resource use and management are essential to meet human needs for all and safeguard the planets life-support systems.31.3.Worrying trends and new challenges in resource consumption and production since 2019.41.4.It is not enough to identify pat

133、hways for achieving sustainability global agendas.Concrete and immediate action at scale is required.61.5.Rather than despair,determination to change and innovate can lead to just transition pathways and new opportunities for long-term sustainability.71.6.Decoupling natural resource use and environm

134、ental impacts from human well-being is essential and necessary for the transition to a sustainable future.71.7.Decoupling will not happen spontaneously and will require systemic transformation.81.8.For solutions that go beyond incremental or isolated changes,the“provisioning systems”concept facilita

135、tes an integrated and systemic approach to decision-making.111.9.Actions for the sustainable use and management of natural resources must place justice and sufficiency at the core.141.10.2024 Global Resources Outlook expands on earlier reports.141.11.Concluding remarks.15Chapter 2:Drivers,pressures,

136、and natural resource use trends.17Main findings.182.1 Introduction.192.2.What drives global resource use trends?.19 2.2.1 Population growth.20 2.2.2 Gross Domestic Product.21 2.2.3 Per capita GDP.22 2.2.4 Urbanization.232.3 Historical analysis of material resource use.24 2.3.1 Global trends in mater

137、ial extraction.26 2.3.2 Global trade in materials.29 2.3.3 Domestic Material Consumption.32 2.3.4 Material Footprint.33 2.3.5 Waste and emissions.35 2.3.6 Resource productivity.36 2.3.7 Drivers of material use.372.4 Water use.392.5 Land use.40 2.5.1 Global and regional land use trends.412.6 Conclusi

138、ons.43Chapter 3:Given that resource use is driving the triple planetary crisis,sustainable resource management is urgently needed.45Main findings.463.1 Introduction.47 3.1.1 Relevance.47 3.1.2 Content.47 3.1.3 Further information.51xiii|UNEP|Global Resources Outlook 20243.2 Growing impact of global

139、resource-related impacts and missed targets.51 3.2.1 Resource management is the key to environmental policy.51 3.2.2 Lack of global absolute decoupling-environmental impacts continue to increase.53 3.2.3 Targets for climate and biodiversity impacts have been dramatically missed.53 3.2.4 Provisioning

140、 systems of food,energy,mobility and built environment are main contributors to environmental impacts.54 3.2.5 Well-being increased but without absolute decoupling in any IHDI county groups.553.3 Environmental impacts are unevenly distributed.56 3.3.1 Environmental impact footprints differ greatly b

141、etween income country groups.56 3.3.2 Regional variations in the environmental impacts of provisioning systems.57 3.3.3 Environmental impacts embodied in international trade.60 3.3.4 Temporal trends of domestic impacts and trade differ among regions.62 3.3.5 Affluence is the main global driver of en

142、vironmental impacts.63 3.3.6 Well-being indicators can improve at little environmental cost.643.4 Supply-chain analysis.66 3.4.1 Climate impacts are caused by many actors and sectors throughout the value chain.66 3.4.2 Biodiversity impacts mainly occur at the start of the value chain.673.5 In-depth

143、regionalized assessment of resource-related environmental and health impacts(production perspective).68 3.5.1 Health impact and climate change analysis relating to industrial-plant specific fine particulate matter(PM2.5).70 3.5.2 Impacts of land use(land use change and occupation).723.6 Conclusions.

144、76Chapter 4:Scenario outlook.77Main findings.784.1.Introduction:Two contrasting scenarios.80 4.1.1.Assumptions and narrative for the Sustainability Transition scenario.80 4.1.2.Scenario analysis assesses decoupling potential.80 4.1.3 Innovations.81 4.1.4.Contents.824.2.High environmental damage and

145、inequality under the Historical Trends scenario.82 4.2.1.Historical Trends assumes economic growth consistent with institutional projections driving significant growth in resource use.82 4.2.2.No absolute decoupling projected under Historical Trends.834.3.Sustainability Transition increases well-bei

146、ng and income while decreasing pressures and environmental impacts.85 4.3.1.Key elements of the Sustainability Transition scenario.85 4.3.2.Decoupling outcomes.89 4.3.3.Key results for resource efficiency.91 4.3.4.Key results for climate and energy.96 4.3.5.Key results for food and land.101 4.3.6.Su

147、pporting reduced inequalities,sufficiency and a just transition.1034.4.Conclusions.106Chapter 5:Call to action for sustainable resource use Sustainable prosperity only possible with immediate transformative action.107Main policy findings.1085.1 Introduction:Crucial global commitment to a just transf

148、ormation and sustainable resource use.1095.2 Some actions in the right direction.However,multiple barriers and lock-ins need to be overcome(as detailed in Chapter 1),and changes are not taking place at the speed and scale needed.1115.3 Immediate and decisive action can transform resource use for the

149、 benefit of humanity.1115.4 Critical actions towards sustainable resource use can achieve desired outcomes.112 5.4.1.Institutionalizing resource governance and defining resource-use paths.116 5.4.2.Directing finance towards sustainable resource use.119 5.4.3.Making trade an engine of sustainable res

150、ource use.122 5.4.4.Mainstreaming sustainable consumption options.126 5.4.5.Creating circular,resource-efficient and low-impact solutions and business models.129 5.4.6.Achieving more effective resource-intensive provisioning systems.1335.5 Conclusions.139References.142Methodological Annexes.162Globa

151、l Resources Outlook 2024|UNEP|xivKey messages 1.Increasing resource use is the main driver of the triple planetary crisis.Extraction and processing of material resources(fossil fuels,minerals,non-metallic minerals and biomass)account for over 55 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions(GHG)and 40 per ce

152、nt of particulate matter health related impacts.If land use change is considered,climate impacts grow to more than 60 per cent,with biomass contributing the most(28 per cent)followed by fossil fuels(18 per cent)and then non-metallic minerals and metals(together 17 per cent).Biomass(agricultural crop

153、s and forestry)also account for over 90 per cent of the total land use related biodiversity loss and water stress.All environmental impacts are on the rise.2.Material use has increased more than three times over the last 50 years.It continues to grow by an average of more than 2.3 per cent per year.

154、Material use and its impact continue to rise at a greater rate than increases in well-being(as measured by inequality-adjusted Human Development Index).The built environment and mobility systems are the leading drivers of rising demand,followed by food and energy systems.Combined,these systems accou

155、nt for about 90 per cent of global material demand.Material use is expected to increase to meet essential human needs for all in line with the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs).Without urgent and concerted action to change the way resources are used,material resource extraction could increase by a

156、lmost 60 per cent from 2020 levels by 2060,from 100 to 160 billion tonnes,far exceeding what is required to meet essential human needs for all in line with the SDGs.3.Climate and biodiversity impacts from material extraction and processing greatly exceed targets based on staying within 1.5 degrees o

157、f climate change and avoiding biodiversity loss.Analysis of scientific targets developed on the basis of Multilateral Environmental Agreements(MEAs)(such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC,Convention on Biological Diversity CBD and United Nations Convention to Combat

158、 Desertification UNCCD)and scientific literature demonstrates the extent to which environmental impacts from resource use could derail their achievements.Integrating sustainable resource use in the implementation of MEAs is necessary to meet agreed climate,biodiversity,pollution and land degradation

159、 neutrality outcomes.Action is required now to lower GHG emissions,paying attention to the crucial role of materials.A sustainable and circular bioeconomy must be based on prioritizing the use of biomass to maximize well-being and minimize impact,while conversion of biodiversity-and carbon-rich natu

160、ral systems must be avoided and reversed to promote net nature-positive outcomes.4.Delivering on the SDGs for all requires decoupling,so that the environmental impacts of resource use fall while the well-being contributions from resource use increase.Resource efficiency and supporting policies can r

161、educe material resource use and dramatically reduce environmental impacts in high and upper middle-income countries(absolute decoupling)while improving well-being and boosting economic growth.This can also create the space for resource use to grow where it is most needed.There has so far been no evi

162、dence of widespread absolute decoupling at the global level.In low and lower middle-income countries policy should focus on reducing environmental pressures and impacts and improving resource efficiency,acknowledging increases in resource use(relative decoupling)will be required to reduce inequaliti

163、es and improve well-being.These actions are aligned with the emerging understanding of just transitions,sufficiency and pathways towards sustainable resource use.5.High-income countries use six times more materials per capita and are responsible for ten times more climate impacts per capita than low

164、-income countries.This inequality must be addressed as a core element of any global sustainability effort.The per capita material footprint of high-income countries,the highest of all income groups,has remained relatively constant since 2000.Upper middle-income countries have more than doubled their

165、 material footprint per capita approaching high-income levels,while their per capita impacts continue to be lower than high-income countries.Through global trade,high-income countries displace environmental impacts to all other income country groups.Per capita resource use and related environmental

166、impacts in low-income countries has remained comparatively low and almost unchanged since 1995.xv|UNEP|Global Resources Outlook 20246.Compared to historical trends,it is possible to reduce resource use while growing the economy,reducing inequality,improving well-being and dramatically reducing envir

167、onmental impacts.Scenario modelling illustrates the potential to reduce and rebalance global per capita material use,with absolute reductions from around 2040 driven by reductions in high and upper middle-income nations that outweigh,in aggregate,increases in low and lower middle-income nations.The

168、policies and shifts that could drive these change also reduce economic inequalities and boost global income growth.Integrated action on resource efficiency,climate and energy,food and land achieve significantly larger positive effects than any one of these policy areas for action would in isolation.

169、Taken together,these actions demonstrate that by 2060,it is possible to achieve a world with global GDP about 3 per cent larger alongside a global Human Development Index 7 per cent higher than could be expected by following historical trends.Compared to historical trends such measures could mitigat

170、e growth in material use by 30 per cent.GHG emissions could be reduced by more than 80 per cent from current levels by 2060,consistent with the Paris Agreement,along with absolute reductions in energy use,agricultural land area,and other pressures.Fully embracing this scenario is the obvious choice.

171、7.Bold policy action is critical to phase out unsustainable activities,speed up responsible and innovative ways of meeting human needs and promote social acceptance of the necessary transitions.The pathway towards sustainability is increasingly steep and narrow because much time has been lost and ma

172、ny policy commitments embedded in MEAs not delivered on.Urgent action is needed to institutionalise resource governance including embedding resources in the delivery of MEAs,defining sustainable resource use paths on all governance levels and,for example,developing multi-scale institutional arrangem

173、ents in support of sustainable natural resource management.Equally important is reflecting the true costs of resources in the structure of the economy and the redirecting of finance towards sustainable resource use including through setting economic incentives correctly(including for example incenti

174、ves addressing the rebound effect and subsidies reform),making trade and trade agreements engines of sustainable resource use,mainstreaming sustainable consumption options and creating circular,resource-efficient and low-impact solutions and business models.8.The prevailing approach of focusing almo

175、st exclusively on supply-side(production)measures must be supplemented with a much stronger focus on demand-side(consumption)measures.We reject the assumption that meeting essential human needs should be resource-intensive.Structurally lowering or avoiding resource-intensive demand in high consumpti

176、on contexts is necessary.By addressing the demand-side,we are also addressing questions of global equity and sufficiency.For example,dietary changes reducing high-impact commodities including animal protein and food loss and waste can decrease the land needed for food by five per cent by 2060 compar

177、ed to 2020 levels while more equitably ensuring adequate nutrition for all.Reducing the need for mobility and enabling mobility through shared and active transport can reduce related material stock requirements(-50 per cent),energy demands(-50 per cent)and GHG emissions(-60 per cent)by 2060 compared

178、 to current trends.Compact and balanced neighbourhoods using more recycled building content,lifespan extension and other circular economy measures can decrease building material stocks by 25 per cent by 2060,which leads to a 30 per cent decrease in energy demand and 30 per cent decrease in GHG emiss

179、ions compared to current trends.9.The scientific community is united around the urgency of resolute action and bold evidence-based decisions that protect the interests and well-being of all,including future generations.The alignment in messages coming from the International Resource Panel,the Interg

180、overnmental Panel on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services must be considered as a strong statement of urgency from the scientific community.The only choice is to stabilize and balance the human relationship with the rest of nature.We

181、ak,partial,fragmented or slow policies will not work.This can only be possible with far-reaching and truly systemic shifts in energy,food,mobility and the built environment implemented at an unprecedented scale and speed.Leaders across all sectors,including government at all levels,business and civi

182、l society must act now.We can make these changes,and improve human well-being around the world,but the window of opportunity is closing.Natalia Paklina Shutterstock2|UNEP|Global Resources Outlook 202401Introduction Transformation in resource consumption and production is possible and requires immedi

183、ate and decisive actionAuthors:Hans Bruyninckx,Beatriz Vidal,Hala Razian and Rebecca Nohl Main findingsThe role of natural resources use and management as a key driver for the triple planetary crisis has been underestimated by the global,regional and national sustainability agendas.Based on data ana

184、lysis and modelling,this report illustrates why resources are so important and how critical they are to achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)and addressing the triple planetary crisis.In order to deliver on the SDGs and the targets and obligations under multilateral enviro

185、nmental agreements,resource use and management need to be explicitly integrated at the core of efforts to fight climate change,biodiversity loss and pollution.Targeted and coordinated actions at scale are needed to decouple human well-being improvement from the environmental impacts derived from res

186、ource use.Absolute decoupling(reduced consumption)is essential in contexts with high resource-consumption footprints,alongside relative decoupling in those contexts that still need to develop.It is essential to consider the highly unequal distribution of costs and benefits in natural resource use wh

187、en designing new and sustainable ways forward.Such transformation towards sustainable resource use needs to scale up sustainable consumption and production and phase out most resource-intensive and environmentally impactful practices.This is possible if bold policy choices,implemented at scale and s

188、peed,are accepted.This is necessary to overcome many different barriers and lock-ins.A provisioning system lens is a useful approach to understand the dynamics of resource use and how it contributes to key elements of human development.This report focuses on the resource-intensive provisioning syste

189、ms of food,built environment,mobility and energy.It is essential to focus not only on measures on the supply(production)side of these systems but also on the demand(consumption)side.This should include strong operationalization of concepts such as justice and sufficiency.Global Resources Outlook 202

190、4|UNEP|31.1.IntroductionThe global economy is consuming ever more natural resources.The prevailing resource extraction and use models are a contributing and major causal factor of what is known as the triple planetary crisis(climate change,biodiversity loss and pollution).Moreover,natural resource u

191、se is highly unequal and creates strong differences in the distribution of costs and benefits,with the poor particularly disadvantaged throughout the cycle of use.The current model also fails to deliver acceptable human development conditions for many on the planet.Without a systems-wide shift towar

192、ds sustainable resource use,the current trajectories will contribute further to the surpassing of planetary boundaries(Steffen et al.2015;Rockstrm et al.2023)and the inequalities that are characteristic of the global economy.This has also been framed as humanity transgressing a safe operating space.

193、This Global Resources Outlook 2024 report brings together the best available data,modelling and assessments to analyse trends,impacts and distributional effects of resource use.It also describes the potential to turn negative trends around and put humanity on a trajectory towards sustainability.1.2.

194、Sustainable and equitable natural resource use and management are essential to meet human needs for all and safeguard the planets life-support systemsNatural resources(see Box 1.1)are directly or indirectly linked to all 17 Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)(see Figure 1.1).The way societies use na

195、tural resources through linear consumption and production patterns determines the trajectories of environmental impacts and human well-being(IRP 2017).The use of natural resources is therefore intrinsically linked to the global communitys capacity to achieve sustainability,and deliver on multilatera

196、l environmental agreements(MEAs)relating to climate,biodiversity,land degradation and other issues.Scientific assessments(for example IRP 2017;IRP 2019a;Fanning et al.2022 and the present study)confirm that the current model of natural resource use to deliver economic growth and social development i

197、s driving an unprecedented triple planetary crisis of climate change,biodiversity loss and pollution(see Box 1.2).Moreover,the natural resource agenda is not only an environmental agenda,as it also relates to the long-term capacity of natural systems to deliver well-being for all,and given current i

198、nequality,especially to those who are lacking the basic material conditions for a decent life.Box 1.1.Resource categories covered by this reportThis report studies natural resources which are essential for producing goods and services to meet human needs,based on the following categories(see also th

199、e glossary):Biomass:crops for food,energy and bio-based materials,as well as wood for energy and industrial usesFossil fuels:including coal,gas and oilMetals:such as iron,aluminum and cooperNon-metallic minerals:sand,gravel,limestone and minerals used for industrial applicationsLandWaterThroughout t

200、he report,assessments refer to material resources(biomass,fossil fuels,metals and non-metallic minerals),also referred to as“materials”.Figure 1.1:Natural resources and the SDGs.NaturalResources 746Direct linkageIndirect linkageConsumption and productionBiodiversity LossPolluti

201、onClimate ChangeSource:Adapted from IRP(2022)and IRP(2019a).4|UNEP|Global Resources Outlook 2024Box 1.2.The triple planetary crisis and the Global Resources Outlook 2024(Hala Razian,Namita Sharma and Iris Lassus)The triple planetary crisis is a science-based framework adopted by the United Nations s

202、ystem that refers to three interlinked global environmental crises:climate change,biodiversity loss and pollution.Acting on this triple crisis lies at the core of the strategy of the United Nations Environmental Programme(UNEP).Unsustainable patterns of consumption and production are identified as t

203、he common thread of this triple crisis.In 2021,the United Nations Secretary-General,in his opening remarks to the Fifth Session of the United Nations Environment Assembly(UNEA),warned of growing inequalities among people and countries“in the face of a triple environmental emergency climate disruptio

204、n,appalling biodiversity decline and a pollution epidemic”.5 Subsequently,at the Resumed Fifth Session of UNEA in 2022,the worlds ministers of environment called for“decisive,adequate and coherent implementation of the actions and commitments()addressing the triple crisis of our common environment c

205、limate change,biodiversity loss and pollution”.6 The framework and terminology have since been used across academic journals and intergovernmental organizations.7 While the framework could not encompass all global environmental challenges that the world is currently facing,the Global Resources Outlo

206、ok 2024 applies this framing for two reasons.First,the Global Resources Outlook 2024 is presented primarily to UNEA at the request of that forum.8 Second,the framing is a useful tool to contextualize the findings of the report,which aims to shed more light on the relevance of resource use for implem

207、enting global agendas related to the crisis.This report further considers land degradation as represented under the UN Framework Convention to Combat Desertification in its assessment,and such considerations fall under the biodiversity loss axis of the triple planetary crisis.5 UNEP/EA.5/25 Proceedi

208、ngs of the United Nations Environment Assembly at its fifth session.6 UNEP/EA.5/HLS.1.Ministerial declaration of the United Nations Environment Assembly at its fifth session:Strengthening actions for nature to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.7 See,for instance,the UNEP Medium Term Strategy

209、.8 Resolutions UNEA-2/8,UNEA-4/1,and UNEA-5.2/11.9 While countries can be producing and consuming countries at the same time,this refers to countries that are producers based on their net trade balance.10 Materials that are of high economic importance to the country or region concerned,and where the

210、 supply chain is perceived as vulnerable or fragile,for geological or geopolitical reasons.1.3.Worrying trends and new challenges in resource consumption and production since 2019 Since the 2019 edition of this report series was published,trends in global resource use have continued or accelerated:b

211、etween 2015(reference year of the 2019 edition)and 2023 there was no absolute decoupling of any environmental impact on the global scale,and all impacts increased in absolute terms with only a few temporary exceptions(such as a resource use decrease during the COVID-19 pandemic).Recent events and ch

212、anges in global geopolitics continue to have an impact on how resources are managed.In the last few years,the COVID-19 pandemic and recent global inflation have highlighted the vulnerability of the global supply chain of material resources(also referred to as“materials”),as well as the need to secur

213、e the supply of essential materials while reducing materials demand at the same time.This has been reflected in a surge of resource policy developments,particularly on energy use,plus business actions to restructure supply chains and reduce supply disruption risks.Companies and countries are investi

214、ng in extraction and processing projects in producing countries.9Alongside the vulnerability of supply chains,material demand(including materials classed as critical)10 is expected to continue increasing in the coming decades.This will be in order to feed an increasing population with changing model

215、s of consumption and to supply the materials required for goods,infrastructure and services,as well as for the deployment of the clean energy transition(see Historic trends scenario in Chapter 4 and Box 1.3).Global Resources Outlook 2024|UNEP|5Box 1.3.The demand for minerals and metals for the clean

216、 energy transition(Based on IRP 2024b and the impacts on indigenous communities developed by Sofia Baudino)Future mineral demand scenarios for the clean energy transition11 project very high increases in material demand up to 2040 or 2050,and point to potential risks of imminent supply/demand imbala

217、nces.For instance,copper is required for all power generation and transport technologies.Lithium,cobalt and graphite are needed for electric car batteries,as is nickel,which is also used in a number of power generation technologies.Rare earth magnets are needed for offshore wind turbines.Nickel and

218、platinum group metals(PGMs)are important for hydrogen production,and Rare Earth Elements(REEs)play a role in hydrogen,as well as in wind turbines and batteries.Aluminium is important across a wide range of clean technologies(IRP 2024b).Many factors can contribute to supply risks around these commodi

219、ties that can jeopardize immediate and scaled-up action for the energy transition:the time-lag from deposit identification to market;the competing needs for minerals from other development applications,12 the concentration of material extraction and processing or production technologies;and commodit

220、y prices.The scale of current mining conflicts13 is also seen as a further risk,which relates to the negative and social impacts of extractive activities.One example is the socioenvironmental conflicts derived from the mining of gold,silver,copper,zinc or tin in territories owned or occupied14 by in

221、digenous communities in Amazonian countries(Villn-Prez et al.2022).A leaning towards prioritizing companies interests has been observed in domestic laws and regulations(World Resource Institute 2020)by removing the judicial protection of indigenous communities,expropriating land,neglecting consultat

222、ion during the project approval process(United Nations,Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean ECLAC 2023)or even using armed forces to protect mining facilities(Bustos et al.2023).These communities have also often been under threat in terms of the water quality impacts of mining ope

223、rations(International Work Group for Indigenous Affairs IWGIA 2023).Concerted action to decrease material requirements for transitions to renewable energy systems including by applying sustainable consumption and production,resource efficiency and circular economy strategies can help facilitate the

224、transition to clean energy for all countries,while minimizing the socioeconomic impacts.For those materials that are essential to meet the needs of the energy transition,promoting the use of the Sustainable Development Licence to Operate(SDLO)15 could enhance the contribution of the mining sector to

225、 sustainable development(IRP 2020a).11 The World Bank(Hund et al.2020),the UN International Resource Panel(IRP,2020a),the European Commission(Moss et al.2013;Bobba et al.2020),the International Energy Agency(IEA 2021IEA 2022 a,b and c),the International renewable Energy Agency(Gielen 2021),the Germa

226、n Raw Materials Agency(Marscheider-Weidemann et al.2021),the Finnish Geological Survey(Michaux 2021)and various academics,including Grandell(2016);Watari et al.(2018),Elshkaki and Shen(2019),Moreau et al.(2019),Habib et al.(2020),Heijilen et al.(2021),Watari et al.(2021)and Christmann et al.(2022)12

227、 Due to population increase and changes in lifestyle,world average per capita production for cement,aluminium and steel grew by 3000%and over 4000%and 1100%,respectively,over that period(USGS Historical Data series,Kelly and Matos 2022).13 The Environmental Justice Atlas(15 April 2023)identifies ext

228、raction of mineral ores and building materials(both categories appear aggregated)as one of the largest categories of environmental conflicts,out of 3,861 conflicts.The concentration of mining conflicts in the Andes in South America is particularly high.14 The United Nations Declaration on the Rights

229、 of Indigenous Peoples(Article 25)and the ILO Convention 169(Articles 7,13,15.1,and 32)recognize the rights of indigenous peoples to own,occupy and use their territories,as well as access natural resources and participate in development processes(Agybay et al.2020).15 A holistic multi-level and mult

230、i-stakeholder governance framework aimed at enhancing the contribution of the mining sector to sustainable development(IRP 2020a).Emerging trends,such as digitalization(United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNCTAD 2020)and artificial intelligence,are also expected to change the way publ

231、ic and private actors operate.While this will be accompanied by increasing demand for specific materials,it remains unclear how this may impact the distribution of the benefits and environmental impacts of material use.Increasing insecurity and conflicts(United Nations Development Programme UNDP 202

232、2)and a sense of polarization have been observed globally,in a world defined by increased uncertainty.Uncertain or unpredictable events,such as those linked to climate change and geopolitical conflicts,are also on the rise.It often proves difficult to understand and assess the impacts of observed ch

233、anges.This situation is referred to as“VUCA”world “Volatile,Uncertain,Complex and Ambiguous”.6|UNEP|Global Resources Outlook 2024In a context of continuous change with recurrent and interconnected crises(resource supply,climate,biodiversity and pollution),improving resource use management can play a

234、 decisive role in increasing human security while meeting human needs for all.The resource agenda is not just an environmental agenda.It refers to the long-term capacity of natural systems to deliver secure well-being to all,which is essential for humanity to thrive in peace.Box 1.4.Integrating a re

235、source perspective across multilateral environmental agreements and the importance of science-based targetsResource use and management are key to meeting the global goals on human development,climate,biodiversity,pollution and land degradation.The need to address the drivers of unsustainable resourc

236、e use is increasingly recognized by other important scientific panels such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services(IPBES),the Word Health Organization(WHO)and the Global Environmental Outlook(GEO 6).For the first ti

237、me,the IPCC(2022)has highlighted the importance of the use of materials,land and water for climate agendas,including scientific assessment on materials and on demand-side changes(changes in the demand for goods and/or services).In addition,IPCCs Sixth Assessment Report(AR6)identifies circular econom

238、y as a relevant strategy for GHG mitigation.According to IPBES-IPCC(2021),there are many synergies between actions for climate mitigation and biodiversity and material use,and that potential trade-offs depend on policy design.In a similar way,the IPBES assessment makes the link between the biodivers

239、ity crisis and resource use,and WHO links pollution and health outcomes to the use of resources particularly in low-income countries.Science-based targets for resource use as with GHG emission and biodiversity targets could guide actions to help implement global sustainability agendas within planeta

240、ry boundaries and the Earths carrying capacity.Some studies,such as Bringezu(2015;2019),have highlighted the need for science-based targets for resources.By way of example,Watari et al.(2020)developed global targets for metal flows,stocks and use intensity that are consistent with emissions pathways

241、 to achieve a 2 degrees Celsius climate goal.This report makes an attempt to benchmark climate and biodiversity impacts to scientific targets in Chapter 3.16 Aichi targets,https:/www.cbd.int/aichi-targets/1.4.It is not enough to identify pathways for achieving sustainability global agendas.Concrete

242、and immediate action at scale is required Since the dawn of the sustainability and environmental intergovernmental agenda at the 1972 Stockholm Conference on the Environment,governments have failed to deliver on many environmental and sustainability commitments,and the actions taken so far do not me

243、et the scale of the challenge(UNEP 2021b;IPBES-IPCC 2021;Fuller et al.2022).The 2019 edition of this report showed that the extraction and initial processing of materials were responsible for 90%of land-based biodiversity loss and water stress and 50%of climate impacts.Moreover,the current resource

244、use model leads to a highly unequal distribution of socioeconomic benefits and environmental impacts.It is therefore critical to explicitly acknowledge the resource perspective to meet the global goals on human development,climate,biodiversity,pollution and land degradation and to develop systemic a

245、ctions that address common drivers of climate change,biodiversity loss and unsustainable resource use(see Box 1.4).Despite this,resource use and management are currently underrepresented in global,regional and national climate and biodiversity strategies(International Resource Panel 2022),and there

246、is a dearth of targets for guiding and evaluating how improved natural resource use and management can contribute to meeting global sustainability goals(see Box 1.4).Global agreements,based on the best available science,have set targets and goals for sustainable development,capping climate change to

247、 1.5 degrees Celsius and halting biodiversity loss and land degradation.However,countries commitments to resolving the climate crisis as presented through Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Changes Paris Agreement are projected to lead t

248、o 2.8 degrees of warming by the end of the century(UNEP 2022b)with estimates of 1.5 degrees of warming already within the next five years(World Meteorological Organization WMO 2022).While progress has been made on certain issues,for example the historic adoption of the Loss and Damage Fund for vulne

249、rable countries at the UNFCCC COP27,the mitigation ambition expressed through the outcomes of the COP27 remained a concern(Harris 2023),as the world recorded its hottest July on record in 2023.On the back of failures to achieve the Convention on Biological Diversitys(CBD)Aichi Targets16 only 14%of c

250、ountries have met the target of halving or reducing natural habitat loss as 1 million species are threatened with extinction the CBD has agreed to a new framework of goals to halt biodiversity loss and regenerate ecosystems(CBD 2022a).Nations must now demonstrate commitment through action.Global Res

251、ources Outlook 2024|UNEP|7The world is not on track for the land degradation neutrality goal for 2030 from the UN Convention to Combat Desertification,17 which estimates that 70%of all ice-free land has already been altered by human activity changes that have impacted 3.2 billion people.18 While pro

252、gress has been made towards the achievement of the SDGs,“the limited success in implementing the 2030 Agenda should raise strong concerns,and even sound the alarm for the international community”(UN 2019).Importantly,failures to protect ecosystems and biodiversity disproportionally impact the poor a

253、nd most vulnerable,including women and children.In India,for example,it has been estimated that forest ecosystems directly contribute around 7%of national GDP,but represent 57%of the income of the poorest people(Sukhdev 2009).The International Labour Organization estimates that 1.2 billion jobs,or 4

254、0%of the global labour force,are at serious risk due to environmental degradation since they depend on ecosystem services(ILO 2022).19 The lack of effective action to deliver on intergovernmental commitments to environmental sustainability is increasingly resulting in the crossing of thresholds in g

255、lobal environmental systems,known as planetary boundaries.Transgressing these planetary boundaries puts humanity at risk in an existential way(IRP 2019;other research on planetary boundaries20).The global communitys historical failure to act on multilateral environmental agreements based on solidari

256、ty and justice has impacts on the options now available to address these crises.Solution pathways that were possible 50 years ago are now narrower,and the rate of change required far faster(UNEP 2022b;IPCC-IPBES 2021).1.5.Rather than despair,determination to change and innovate can lead to just tran

257、sition pathways and new opportunities for long-term sustainabilityIn a context of continuous change and recurrent and interconnected crises,improving how natural resources are used and managed can play a decisive role in more securely meeting human needs for all.17 https:/www.unccd.int/18 https:/www

258、.unccd.int/land-and-life/land-degradation-neutrality/overview 19 Including jobs in“farming,fishing and forestry,and all those that rely on natural processes,such as air and water purification,soil renewal and fertilization,pollination,pest control,the moderation of extreme temperatures,and the prote

259、ction provided by natural infrastructure(such as forests)against storms,floods and strong winds”(pg 8).20 https:/www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-boundaries.htmlThere have been strong signs that such change is possible since the last edition of the Global Resource Outlook 2019.Particul

260、arly in terms of natural resource use,there have been positive developments.One example is the adoption of a resolution at the Resumed Fifth Session of the United Nations Environment Assembly to develop a legally binding instrument on plastic pollution,including the maritime environment.The renewed

261、focus on circular economy and the sustainability of supply chains at the United Nations Environment Assembly(UNEA)and in the Group of Seven(G7)also puts resource use on the global political agenda.For example,at UNEA-5.2,Member States adopted Resolution 5/12,which aims to improve environmental aspec

262、ts of metals and minerals management along entire supply chains.The challenge in the coming decade will be to speed up and scale up more integrated solutions to address the structural unsustainability of current resource use.This will require technological breakthroughs,new economic models,strong go

263、vernance approaches,but above all the willingness and determination of political and economic leaders to make choices.This GRO aims to contribute to the understanding of why this determination is necessary(Chapters 2 and 3),what steps are essential to take and why this is essential to delivering on

264、the overall goals of the SDGs,namely a decent life for all within the limits of the planet(Chapters 4 and 5).1.6.Decoupling natural resource use and environmental impacts from human well-being is essential and necessary for the transition to a sustainable futureTargeted and coordinated sustainabilit

265、y actions can decrease the amount of resources used and related environmental impacts,while delivering on continued socioeconomic well-being for all(IRP 2019a).This refers to the concept of decoupling human well-being from resource use,as well as decoupling resource use from environmental impacts(Fi

266、gure 1.2).This concept is not a one-size-fits-all approach.For the parts of the population with the highest resource consumption footprints(countries or fractions in a national population),actions must lead to absolute decoupling(reduction of resource use).In this this regard,IPCC(2022)reports that

267、consumption(demand-side)measures such as diets with less animal protein,compact cities and more public transport can reduce GHG emissions by between 40%and 70%by 2050.8|UNEP|Global Resources Outlook 2024Figure 1.2:Concept of decoupling.ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES AND IMPACTS ECONOMIC ACTIVITYWELLBEINGTI

268、MEWellbeing decouplingfrom resource useResource decouplingfrom economic activityImpact decouplingfrom resource use or economic activityRESOURCE USESource:Revised from IRP(2019b).For the contexts where resource use is expected to grow to enable dignified living,21 the aim should be relative decouplin

269、g(where resource use increases more slowly than human well-being outcomes).For all contexts,impact decoupling is a precondition for any resource use trajectory to be considered sustainable(limiting environmental and health impacts to levels agreed in MEAs).These differential paths for resource use a

270、nd decoupling are linked to the concept of sufficiency,which is gaining traction in the policy agenda.Similarly,UNEP refers to a“fair consumption space”,that is the“need to curb overconsumption while ensuring consumption opportunities needed for meeting basic needs,decent living standards,and human

271、dignity”(UNEP 2022b).To enable such an increase,consumption levels in those parts of the population who live well above22 the capacity of the planet should be decreased(Fanning et al.2022;IPCC 2022).21 This concept goes back to the UNCHE Conference in 1972 in Stockholm,which takes human dignity as a

272、 central concept and explicitly links it to the use of natural resources and the state of the environment.22 In terms of consumption-based environmental impact per capita.Even sustainable socioeconomic systems will continue to rely on natural resources for the goods and services they need.Moreover,a

273、 global transition to more sustainable systems is expected to require significant amounts of resources(Schaffartzik et al.2021;IEA 2021a;IEA 2022a;IEA 2022b and IEA 2022c)(see Box 1.3).In this context,institutions and infrastructure must be geared towards steering consumption patterns toward less re

274、source-intensive modes while meeting human needs.According to Millward-Hopkins et al.(2020),adhering to sufficiency levels,combined with massive technological advances,could provide decent living standards for everyone and reduce total energy needs to the level of the 1960s by 2050,despite projected

275、 population growth.In a context of increasing complexity and uncertainty,it is more critical than ever to manage and govern natural resources to enable the decoupling of human well-being from resource use and environmental impacts.1.7.Decoupling will not happen spontaneously and will require systemi

276、c transformationTo deliver on decoupling,unsustainable patterns of resource use need to be reconfigured or replaced by sustainable modes of producing and consuming that respect the capacity of the planet,meet peoples needs and improve human dignity(see Figure 1.3).This calls for a process of structu

277、ral transformation.While transformation refers to the overall change or outcome of large-scale shifts in technological,economic and social systems,transition refers to the process towards the transformation.Figure 1.3:Strategies for the transition towards sustainable resource use.Source:Adapted from

278、 Loorbach et al.2017.EnablingconditionsRESOURCE-INTENSIVECONSUMPTION ANDPRODUCTIONSUSTAINABLECONSUMPTION ANDPRODUCTIONExperimentationand innovationDestabilisationAccelerationStabilisationInstitutionalisationBreakdownPhase outGlobal Resources Outlook 2024|UNEP|9Transitions are hugely complex and unce

279、rtain processes of change that can take decades to unfold(IRP 2024a).A successful transformation needs to overcome different barriers and lock-ins ranging from economic to behavioural,institutional and vested power dynamics,as well as skills,information and knowledge constraints(Table 1.1).For insta

280、nce,transitioning can require large investment and can be technically challenging for many economic sectors.This also applies to public institutions and households.Transitioning can also lead to changes in the economic structure that can be perceived as disrupting,and challenge prevalent lifestyles

281、and power structures.Table 1.1:Examples of barriers and lock-ins to a transition to sustainable resource use.ECONOMIC LOCK-INS Markets failing to capture environmental costs of production and thereby incentivizing unsustainable consumption and production patterns.Harmful subsidies being the norm.Fin

282、ancialization of the commodity markets,which drives unsustainable resource extraction.Business models do not account for resource use-related risks.Concentration of decision-making power in business conglomerates.Existing investments in machinery and infrastructure locking-in behaviours or resource

283、needs.New investment requirements by actors at all levels.LIFESTYLES AND CONSUMPTION Resource-intensive aspirational consumption models,promoted by targeted marketing strategies and even by national policies.Missing infrastructure to deliver sustainable mobility,housing,energy use and so on.Lack of

284、access to affordable sustainable products.Gaps in education for sustainable development across school and higher learning curricula.FRAGMENTED GOVERNANCE Geographical and sectoral fragmentation of resource management strategies that inhibit systematic and integrated responses.Complex supply chains w

285、hose associated impacts are difficult to track,often with specific actors determining the functioning of the market.QUALITY OF INSTITUTIONS Institutional inertia.Poor quality of institutions,which can hinder action in societys collective interest.This can be due to the inherent challenges of organiz

286、ational governance,lack of resources,focus on short-term benefits and corruption.Lack of consideration for local communities,small-scale producers and the scientific community.SKILLS Current skills not fully suited to the transition needs.Current educational programmes do not develop the skills or b

287、usiness models that the transition will demand.INFORMATION AND KNOWLEDGE CONSTRAINTS Lack of targets translating global sustainability agendas into resource-use targets.Lack of transparent and easily actionable information across the value chain of consumption and production.Increasingly complex inf

288、ormation and complex solutions.Citizens overwhelmingly receive information that promotes consumption and reinforces unattainable aspirational consumption patterns.REBOUND EFFECTS Efficiency improvements are often outweighed by increasing consumption due to rebound effects.Source:Adapted from IRP(202

289、4a)and EEA(2022a).10|UNEP|Global Resources Outlook 2024To overcome these barriers,policy must drive change and ensure the necessary conditions for promoting the much-needed systemic change in our systems of consumption and production.This includes inter alia improved institutions and governance mech

290、anisms that consider regulations,incentives and market-based instruments that can be developed inclusively and equitably on the basis of scientific evidence.Other major elements for success include alignment around common strategic goals across sectors and levels of governance,plus international coo

291、rdination for example through financial,knowledge,technological and capacity exchange(IRP 2024a).Suited metrics are essential to monitor and guide the transition(Box 1.5).23 Although subsidy amounts vary according to the method through which they are estimated,most sources indicate that 2022 was a r

292、ecord year for fossil fuel subsidies.According to IEA estimates,USD 1 trillion spent on fossil fuel subsidies.Subsidy estimates from IMF also include social and environmental costs,and are therefore higher:IMF estimated USD 7 trillion was spent on subsidizing fossil fuels in 2022.However,the fact th

293、at more was spent during 2022 than any other year was constant across both methods.24 https:/www.un.org/en/common-agenda25 While the aim of this report was to assess how resources deliver nutrition,energy,housing and at what environmental cost,data limitations prevented the use of such metrics throu

294、ghout the report.Equally important is actively phasing out unsustainable practices and overcoming lock-ins and barriers.For several decades,international organizations,scientists and civil society actors have pleaded for the phasing out of environmentally harmful taxes and subsidies,unsustainable sp

295、atial planning practices and so on.However,much capital has been poured into property and fossil fuels,while relatively small amounts of capital have been dedicated to sustainable resource use(UNEP 2009).This applies to public finance,where it is still the norm to subsidize unsustainable practices(D

296、asgupta et al.2021)and private finance.Indeed,fossil fuels benefited from record subsidies in 2022(International Energy Agency IEA 2023);(International Monetary Fund(IMF 2023).23 This GRO report includes specific recommendations on this crucial aspect.Box 1.5.Metrics and methodologies to guide a sus

297、tainability transition A global transition towards sustainable resource use needs to be guided by suited metrics,namely metrics that also consider environmental and well-being outcomes,and metrics that can inform relevant decision-making processes(such as those involving key pressures,impacts,policy

298、 responses and so forth).This includes metrics that go beyond traditional measures of success(usually economic indicators and specifically Gross Domestic Product).Gross Domestic Product(GDP)is compiled by virtually all countries based on their System of National Accounts as a summary figure for econ

299、omic activity.Over time,GDP has also been used as a measure of overall well-being and welfare,despite its exclusion of environmental factors(natural capital)and many social factors(social capital).In Our Common Agenda,24 the United Nations Secretary-General highlights the urgent need for countries t

300、o move beyond GDP as their main measure of progress,“advancing discussions on a methodology for measuring sustainability transformation in a way that integrates human well-being,natural capital and sustainable economic development”as a core priority for the 2023 UN General Assembly.Along these lines

301、,this GRO report complements the GDP metrics used in the assessments with metrics on human well-being.For that,the Human Development Index(HDI)is used as a proxy for well-being related to three basic components of human development:life expectancy,education and income.To inform and guide a sustainab

302、le transition,robust,complete,transparent and regularly updated data on the costs and benefits of resource use are also needed.This will make it possible to monitor the ability and efficiency of provisioning systems(see section 1.8)in delivering human well-being.The SDG indicator framework provides

303、a comprehensive starting point,25 including indicators on the performance of the provisioning systems that provide us with food,housing,and energy for example.Given the critical role of actions on consumption,improved data on consumption hotspots and their related impacts(consumption environmental f

304、ootprint)are also crucial.This GRO report assesses pressures and impacts from a consumption perspective in order to identify impact hotspots.Global Resources Outlook 2024|UNEP|111.8.For solutions that go beyond incremental or isolated changes,the“provisioning systems”concept facilitates an integrate

305、d and systemic approach to decision-makingThe lack of systemic approaches and approaches that include consumption considerations also called demand side as they address the demand for goods and/or services is a major impediment to current policy approaches towards complex and interrelated sustainabi

306、lity challenges.The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development26 reflects an understanding that sustainability challenges(the 17 SDGs)should be addressed holistically.Assessments based on modelling and policy evaluation have shown that policies designed with a narrow scope can hinder progress elsewhere

307、 and negatively impact overall goals of sustainable human well-being.27 In particular,strategies based on policy interventions that do not account for modes of resource use in a systemic way can have major unintended consequences.28 It remains difficult to translate such system change visions into c

308、oncrete policies and plans for action.“Provisioning system”is a recent and increasingly relevant concept that groups together ecological,technological,institutional and social elements that interact to transform natural resources to satisfy human needs(Fanning et al.2020).The concept enables an inte

309、grated consideration of how material and political-economic dimensions interact to shape resource use to deliver social outcomes(Schaffartzik et al.2021).Figure 1.4 depicts how provisioning systems rely on the extraction of natural resources to deliver human well-being,while also impacting the envir

310、onment and therefore people.26 Transforming our world:the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development https:/sdgs.un.org/2030agenda27 See references at IRP Policy Coherence of the Sustainable Development Goals,https:/resourcepanel.org/reports/policy-coherence-sustainable-development-goals 28 See referen

311、ces at IRP Policy Coherence of the Sustainable Development Goals,https:/resourcepanel.org/reports/policy-coherence-sustainable-development-goalsFigure 1.4:From natural resources to provisioning systems and societal well-being.WELL-BEINGPROVISIONING SYSTEMSNATURAL RESOURCESBiomassFossil fuelsMetalsNo

312、n-metallic mineralsLandUSEEXTRACTIONFood and nutritionMobilityBuilt EnvironmentEnergySource:Adapted from UNEP(2021b Figure ES.1)and ONeil et al.(2018 Figure 1).Design concept by:Namita Sharma and Iris Lassus.A provisioning-systems perspective is potentially useful for understanding and identifying s

313、olutions that transform the way human needs are met while also achieving sustainability goals(Schaffartzik et al.2021).Such a perspective opens up possibilities beyond sector-specific solutions that may have unintended consequences.It can point to much less resource-intensive ways of providing solut

314、ions,rather than relying on what initially looks like a sustainable solution.For example,expanding or electrifying the car fleet may seem the optimal solution for transitioning to more efficient mobility systems.However,the massive upscaling of electric vehicles will be highly material intensive(Car

315、rara et al.2023;UNCTAD 2020),as would the additional road infrastructure work.Using a provisioning-systems perspective could promote solutions such as improving public transport or reducing the need for transport by designing and developing more condensed urban centres or enabling telework and teleh

316、ealth services.stockpexel Shutterstock12|UNEP|Global Resources Outlook 2024The assessments within this GRO focus on the following four provisioning systems that are resource-intensive and central to human well-being:energy,food,built environment and mobility systems.These systems provide the goods a

317、nd services that relate to basic development indicators,as reflected in the SDG monitoring framework.Some chapters of the GRO refer also to other provisioning systems to complement the assessments.For example,Chapter 3 refers to water and sanitation,education and clothing,while Chapter 2 refers to c

318、ommunication.Although other provisioning systems,such as specific consumer goods(electronics,textiles and the like),can play a critical role in delivering well-being,they are not explicitly assessed in the report but have been considered under other categories.Box 1.6 describes the boundaries 29 Suc

319、h as those used for climate mitigation reporting or economic sector classifications such as the International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities(ISIC).30 Economic sector classifications are not built and broken down in a way that assigns resource use to the final provision

320、ing system.Assumptions need to be made that may introduce uncertainty into the results.31 As developers of national plans for mobility infrastructure.of the main four provisioning systems considered by this report and Annex 2(available at www.resourcepanel.org)outlines the underlying mapping from ec

321、onomic sectors29 to provisioning systems.For this mapping,the use of resources and environmental impacts of each economic sector have been allocated to the provisioning systems where final consumption takes place.This means,for example,that materials used to generate electricity for crop irrigation

322、or fuels for energy used by the food industry will be assigned to the food-provisioning system.This differs from the classifications used in climate mitigation reporting,for instance,where the energy sector includes most activities producing energy,and these are not assigned to final consumption sec

323、tors.This exercise is not without its methodological challenges.30Box 1.6.Provisioning systems:key facts and figures FOOD AND NUTRITIONMOBILITYResource use and corresponding supply chains that contribute to human nutrition,including each step in the food supply chain from production to distribution,

324、retail and consumption.Actors:Farmers,food processors,retailers,food services,financial/trading actors and final consumersValue added:12%Jobs:33%Demand of materials:23.5 billion tonnes(84%biomass,9%non-metallic minerals,6%fossil fuels and 1%metallic minerals)Highest material footprint in:Upper middl

325、e-income countries(10 billion tonnes;79%biomass,12%non-metallic minerals,7%fossil fuels and 2%metallic minerals)Highest material footprint per capita:High income countries(4.6 tonnes per capita;82%biomass,9%non-metallic minerals,8%fossil fuels and 2%metallic minerals)Main challenges:Unsustainable di

326、ets,food loss and waste,impact on ecosystems,carbon-intensive supply chains and competition with other potential applications of biomass(such as for energy)Land,sea,and air mobility,and associated infrastructure for transporting people and goods.Actors:Land use/urban planners,vehicle manufacturers,t

327、ravel services,national governments31,citizens and entitiesValue added:9%Jobs:7%Demand of materials:28.6 billion tonnes(64%non-metallic minerals,19%fossil fuels,13%metallic minerals and 4%biomass)Highest material footprint in:Upper middle-income countries(16.7 billion tonnes;71%non-metallic minerals

328、,14%fossil fuels,12%metallic minerals and 3%biomass)Highest material footprint per capita:Upper middle-income countries(6.4 tonnes per capita;71%non-metallic minerals,14%fossil fuels,12%metallic minerals and 3%biomass)Main challenges:New lock ins in motorized mobility,long travel distances and high

329、travel frequency and carbon-intensive vehiclesGlobal Resources Outlook 2024|UNEP|13BUILT ENVIRONMENTENERGYConstructed spaces for human activity,where people live and work(built infrastructure used by other systems would not come under this system).32Actors:Land use/urban planners,the construction se

330、ctor,citizens and entities Value added:13%Jobs:15%Demand of materials:30.6 billion tonnes(76%non-metallic minerals,9%fossil fuels,8%metallic minerals and 7%biomass)Highest material footprint in:Upper middle-income countries(16.5 billion tonnes;79%non-metallic minerals,9%fossil fuels,8%metallic miner

331、als and 4%biomass)Highest material footprint per capita:High-income countries(7.1 tonnes per capita;71%non-metallic minerals,11%metallic minerals,10%fossil fuels and 8%biomass)Main challenges:Lock-ins in buildings with high energy demand,high floor area and energy demand per capita,high emissions em

332、bodied in construction and competition with other users of biomassProduction,conversion and supply of energy for end consumers,and its associated infrastructure.Actors:energy providers,energy producers,investors,citizens,national entities and State governments33Value added:3%Jobs:2%Demand of materia

333、ls:6.1 billion tonnes(65%fossil fuels,21%metallic minerals,9%non-metallic minerals and 5%biomass)Highest material footprint in:High-income countries(2.7 billion tonnes;72%fossil fuels,18%metallic minerals,7%non-metallic minerals and 3%biomass)Highest material footprint per capita:High-income countries(2.2 tonnes per capita;72%fossil fuels,18%metallic minerals,7%non-metallic minerals and 3%biomass)