1、JLL ResearchFebruary 2024China RetailMarket Annual ReportJLL China Retail Market 20232 2023Contents01Economy0302Prime Retail Property Market2003Retail Trends3304Investment Market3605Future Outlook41JLL China Retail Market 2023EconomyJLL China Retail Market 2023Domestic airline passenger traffic and

2、y-o-y growth rateInter-city Passenger Flow:Tourism returns to normalcy,air and rail travel reboundsSources:Official Websites of Urban Rail Transit in Various Cities,JLL Research,February 2024Domestic railway passenger traffic and y-o-ygrowth rate1,150.0 1,265.0 1,352.0 857.0 907.0 520.0 1,259.6 12.9

3、%10.2%6.9%-36.6%5.9%-42.7%142.2%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,60020020202120222023Million PeopleDomestic Civilian Passenger Traffic(LHS)Growth Rate(Y-o-Y,RHS)3,083.8 3,375.0 3,660.0 2,203.5 2,611.7 1,673.0 3,564.6 9.6%9.4%8.4%-39.8%18.5%-35.9%126.5%-50%0%50%100%150%0

4、1,0002,0003,0004,00020020202120222023.1-11Million PeopleDomestic Civilian Passenger Traffic(LHS)Growth Rate(Y-o-Y,RHS)3|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.JLL China Retail Market 2023Inter-city Passenger Flow:Subwayridership seesstrong recoveryin major citiesAnnual average

5、daily passenger traffic of the subway by city typesSources:MOT,CAAC,JLL Research,February 20240200222023Million TripsType A CityType B CityType C CityNote:Type A cities include Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,Shenzhen;Type B cities include Chengdu,Wuhan,Suzhou,Chongqing,Hangzhou,Nan

6、jing;Type C cities include:Changsha,Zhengzhou,Tianjin,Xian,Shenyang,Qingdao,Ningbo,Wuxi,Xiamen,Dalian,Kunming.4|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.024681012DalianXiamenWuxiNingboQingdaoShenyangSuzhouTianjinZhengzhouChangshaNanjingXianChongqingWuhanHangzhouChengduShenzhenGuangzhouBeiji

7、ngShanghaiMillion TripsType A CityType B CityType C CityAnnual average daily passenger traffic of major city subways in 2023Type A City annualgrowth rate at48.1%annualgrowth rate at29.9%Type C City annualgrowth rate at55.3%JLL China Retail Market 202302505007501,0001,25020232022202120202019YuanPer C

8、apita Expenditure(Right Lower Axis)0%20%40%60%80%100%Recovery Level of Tourism Revenue Compared to 2019(Right Uper Axis).Recovery Level of Tourist Arrivals Compared to 2019(Right Uper Axis)01234567Trillion YuanTourism Revenue(Left Lower Axsis)01234567x 10Billion PeopleTourist Number(Left Uper Axsis)

9、Tourism:Tourist foot traffic rebounds to a level,yet still below that of 2019China tourism revenue and tourist arrivalsfrom 2019 to 2023Note:The data for 2023 is projected by the China Tourism Academy.Sources:NationalStatistics Bureau,JLL Research,February 20245|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rig

10、hts reserved.JLL China Retail Market 2023Recovery level of domestic tourism compared to the same period in 2019 during major holidaysHoliday Consumption:Tourist foot traffic and revenue recover to exceed 2019 baseline31.6%53.5%50.9%79.0%75.3%94.5%103.2%98.7%87.2%70.1%73.9%68.0%66.8%86.8%72.6%60.7%42

11、.8%88.6%83.4%119.1%112.8%104.1%109.4%19.3%36.7%31.2%69.9%58.6%56.7%77.0%74.8%78.6%59.9%56.3%39.2%44.0%65.6%60.7%44.2%35.1%73.1%50.6%100.7%94.9%101.5%105.6%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%Recovery Degree of Domestic Tourism Numbers Compared to 2019Recovery Degree of Domestic Tourism Revenues Compared to 20

12、19Sources:Ministry of Culture and Tourism,JLL Research,February 20247|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.JLL China Retail Market 2023Consumer Propensity:Households consumption propensity steadily risesNew savings amount and growth rate of Chinese householdsSources:PBOC,JLL Research,Fe

13、bruary20248|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%-5050020202120222023Trillion YuanNew Growth in Household Deposits(LHS)New Growth in Non-Financial Corporate Deposits(LHS)New Growth in Government Deposits(LHS)Other Types of Deposits(LHS)Gro

14、wth Rate of New Household Deposits(RHS)JLL China Retail Market 2023Contribution of Consumption:Consumption underpins Chinas economy growthContribution rate of Chinas final consumption expenditure to GDP growth(cumulative value)Sources:NationalStatistics Bureau,JLL Research,February202444.0%57.6%47.4

15、%65.7%55.4%50.2%56.3%69.0%66.0%55.9%64.0%58.6%-6.8%58.3%32.8%66.6%77.2%83.2%82.5%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2008200920000022Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 20239|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.JLL China Retail Market 2023RetailSales:Rebounds with F&B

16、 sectors taking the lead8.9%-2.1%-9.7%-5.0%3.9%3.2%5.1%3.0%0.5%-5.6%-0.1%9.2%9.1%15.9%10.5%1.7%1.0%3.7%4.6%6.5%8.0%4.8%6.5%-16.4%-22.7%-21.1%-4.0%-1.5%8.4%-1.7%-8.1%-8.4%-14.1%2.9%26.3%43.8%35.1%16.1%15.8%12.4%13.8%17.1%25.8%30.0%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%JAN.-FEB.2022MAR.APR.MAY.JUN.JUL.AUG.SEPT

17、.OCT.NOV.DEC.JAN.-FEB.2023MAR.APR.MAY.JUN.JUL.AUG.SEPT.OCT.NOV.DEC.RetailFB SalesY-o-Y growth rate of Chinas total socialretail sales in 2023-3.9%12.5%-0.2%7.2%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2020202120222023Y-o-Y growth rate of national total retail sales of consumer goods by consumption type(monthly)1

18、0|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Sources:NationalStatistics Bureau,JLL Research,February 2024JLL China Retail Market 2023Retail Sales:Shanghai and Chengdu set the pace for Chinas growthTotal retail sales of consumer goods in major cities in 202302004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600Dal

19、ianXiamenWuxiKunmingShenyangXianNingboChangshaZhenzhouQingdaoWuhanHangzhouNanjingSuzhouChengduShenzhenGuangzhouBeijingChongqingShanghaiBillion Yuanx 10Cumulative y-o-y growth of total retail sales of consumer goods in major cities in 2023Note:The total retail sales of consumer goods in Tianjin are c

20、alculated based on the growth rate.Type A CityType B CityType C City7.8%Shenzhen2.9%Xiamen4.7%Nanjing7.3%Qingdao8.6%Wuhan6.7%Guangzhou8.6%Chongqing5.5%Kunming9.0%Shenyang10.0%Chengdu4.8%Beijing3.7%XianN6.2%Changsha6.5%Ningbo5.2%Hangzhou12.6%Shanghai6.4%Suzhou6.9%Wuxi2.9%12.6%7.0%Tianjin7.6%Zhengzhou

21、*8.8%Dalian11|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Sources:NationalStatistics Bureau,JLL Research,February 2024JLL China Retail Market 2023Retail Sales:Finishes the year of 2023 in apositive growth given correcting momentumNational total retail sales of consumer goods and y-o-y growth r

22、ate(monthly)-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%07001,4002,1002,8003,5004,2004,90001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 02120222023Billion YuanTotal Retail Sale

23、s of Consumers Goods(LHS)Positive Growth(Y-o-Y,RHS)Negative Growth(Y-o-Y,RHS)Note:The current values for January and February are the average of the cumulative values from January to February.Sources:NationalStatistics Bureau,JLL Research,February 202412|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights rese

24、rved.JLL China Retail Market 2023Retail Sales:Basic goods consumption witnesses stronger resilience in growthNational total retail sales of consumer goodsand y-o-y growth rate in 2023(by consumption type)Consumption typeCumulative 2023(Billion Yuan)Jan.-Dec.Y-o-Y growth rate(%)Jan.-Sep.Y-o-Y growth

25、rate(%)Jan.-Jun.Y-o-Y growth rate(%)Jan.-Mar.Y-o-Y growth rate(%)Automotive4861.45.94.66.8-2.3Petroleum and Related Products2321.96.66.57.510.3Grain,Oil,Foodstuff1888.75.25.34.87.5Garments,Footwear,Hats,Knitwear1409.512.910.612.89.0Household Appliancesand AV Equipment871.90.5-0.61.0-1.7Daily Necessi

26、ties757.62.73.55.05.1Traditional Chinese and Western Medicines6715.18.711.116.5Communication Appliances681.47.03.94.1-5.1Tobacco and Liquor550.710.69.88.66.8Cosmetics414.25.16.88.65.9Gold,Silver and Jewelry33113.312.217.513.6Cultural and Office Appliances412.6-6.1-6.8-3.9-1.4Beverages299.13.22.01.01

27、.8Building and Decoration Materials156.9-7.8-7.9-6.7-2.4Furniture151.62.83.13.84.6Sports and Entertainment Products118.611.28.310.55.813|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Sources:NationalStatistics Bureau,JLL Research,February 2024JLL China Retail Market 2023Online Retail Sales:Outpa

28、ces the growth rate of overall retail salesCumulative y-o-y growth rate of online retail sales and total retail sales-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%Jul.2019Aug.2019Sep.2019Oct.2019Nov.2019Dec.2019Jan-Feb.2020Mar.2020April.2020May.2020Jun.2020Jul.2020Aug.2020Sep.2020Oct.2020Nov.2020Dec.202

29、0Jan-Feb.2021Mar.2021April.2021May.2021Jun.2021Jul.2021Aug.2021Sep.2021Oct.2021Nov.2021Dec.2021Jan-Feb.2022Mar.2022April.2022May.2022Jun.2022Jul.2022Aug.2022Sep.2022Oct.2022Nov.2022Dec.2022Jan-Feb.2023Mar.2023April.2023May.2023Jun.2023Jul.2023Aug.2023Sep.2023Oct.2023Nov.2023Dec.2023Difference Betwee

30、n the TwoCumulative Growth Rate of Online Retail SalesCumulative Growth Rate of Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods14|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Sources:NationalStatistics Bureau,JLL Research,February 2024JLL China Retail Market 2023Online Retail Sales:Beef up consumption thr

31、oughout omni-channel retailing16.5%-0.8%14.1%4.0%11.0%20.7%23.6%24.5%27.2%27.6%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,000200222023Billion YuanOnline Retail Sales of Physical Goods(LHS)Y-o-Y Growth Rate(RHS)Share of Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods(RHS

32、)30.9%32.7%17.8%16.1%11.2%15.4%-15.1%8.3%3.5%10.8%19.8%10.0%12.5%5.7%7.1%-18%-12%-6%0%6%12%18%24%30%36%200222023Food Related ProductsWearing Related ProductsProducts for UseY-o-Y growth rate of online retail sales of physical goods by categoriesOnline sales of physical goods,y-o-y growth

33、rate and its proportion to totalretail sales of consumer goodsSources:NationalStatistics Bureau,JLL Research,February 202415|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.JLL China Retail Market 202302550755200Sports&OutdoorMaternity&ToysFurniture&Building MaterialsFood&BeveragesCompu

34、ters&Office SuppliesWomens Shoes/Mens Shoes/BagsPersonal Care&BeautyClothingMobile&DigitalHome AppliancesBillion Yuan2022 Sales Amount(lower axis)2023 Sales Amount(lower axis)0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%2023 Sales Proportion(uper axis)2022 Sales Proportion(uper axis)“Double 11”:A cooling down trend to a s

35、teady level of total transactions0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%02004006008001,0001,2002020202120222023Billion YuanOnline Transaction Amount(LHS)Growth Rate(RHS)Totaltransaction amount and growth rate of Double 11 over the yearsTransaction amount and proportion by category in 2022 and 2023Note:The data for 2

36、020 and 2021 in the left chart only includes B2C platform data,excluding T.The period for Double 11 in 2020 is from Nov.1st to 11th,while for other years,it is from 8:00 PM on Oct.31st to Nov.11th.The data for 2022 does not include new retail and community group-buying platforms.The data in the righ

37、t chart only includes comprehensive e-commerce platforms and Dian Tao.16|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Sources:Syntun,JLL Research,February 2024JLL China Retail Market 2023Income and Expenditure:Households expenditure outpaces incomesGrowth of per capita income and expenditure-15

38、%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%06,00012,00018,00024,00030,00036,00042,000200020202120222023YuanPer Captia Disposable Income(LHS)Per Captia Consumption Expenditure(LHS)Growth Rate of Per Captia Disposable Income(RHS)Growth Rate of Captia Consumption Expenditure(RHS)Note:The growth rates m

39、entioned are all real growth rates adjusted for price factors.17|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Sources:NationalStatistics Bureau,JLL Research,February 2024JLL China Retail Market 2023Composition of Expenditure:Telecom,recreation and healthcare remain robustComposition of per capi

40、ta expenditure,.2%23.4%13.3%11.7%8.8%6.2%5.9%2.4%30.2%24.6%13.0%9.6%8.7%5.8%5.9%2.2%29.8%23.4%13.1%10.8%8.8%5.9%5.9%2.4%30.5%24.0%13.0%10.1%8.6%5.6%5.8%2.4%29.8%22.7%13.6%10.8%9.2%5.5%5.7%2.6%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%Food,tobacooand liquorResidenceTransportation andtelecommunicationEducation

41、,cultureand recreationHealth care and medicalservicesClothingHousehold facilities,articles and servicesOther goodsand services20022202318|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Sources:NationalStatistics Bureau,JLL Research,February 2024JLL China Retail Market 2023Composition o

42、f Expenditure:Bottoms outto see a recovery trend in 2023Changes of the cumulative y-o-y growth rate of various types of expenditure-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%200202020202021

43、8200222023200202120222023Education,culture and recreationStrong resilience,with no negativegrowth since the pandemicNo negative growth since 2022Food,tobacco and liquorTotalResidenceHealth care andmedical servicesTransportation and telecommunicationOther g

44、oods and servicesHousehold facilities,articles and services19|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Sources:NationalStatistics Bureau,JLL Research,February 2024Highly volatile,with multiplenegative growthJLL China Retail Market 2023Prime Retail Property MarketJLL China Retail Market 2023

45、ShenyangSuzhouWuxiDalianBeijingTianjingQingdaoZhengzhouXianChengduChongqingChangshaWuhanKunmingGuangzhouShenzhenHangzhouNanjingNingboShanghaiXiamenTotal Stock(sqm)New Supply(sqm)Face Rent YOYVacancy RateVacancy Rate YOY*Nationwide141,889,000 7,917,000-1.0%10.5%-0.7Type A City44,657,0002,559,000-0.2%

46、7.4%-1.6Type B City47,954,0002,317,000-1.3%11.2%+0.1Type C City49,277,0003,041,000-1.4%12.6%-0.6Type A CityType B CityType C CityNote:The city classification used in the following analysis remains consistent.Total existing stock and new supply figures have been rounded to the nearest thousand,so the

47、re may be some margin for error in the totals.*Vacancy rate changes are shown in percentage points2023 China Prime Retail Market Dashboard National SummaryCities Covered:21Projects Tracked:1,600+Retail Stock:142 million sqmType A CityType B CityType C CityChinas tier 1 cities(4)Beijing,Shanghai,Guan

48、gzhou,ShenzhenChinas top 10 GDP cities,in addition to top 4 tier 1 cities(6)Chengdu,Wuhan,Chongqing,Nanjing,Hangzhou,SuzhouOther tier 1.5 or tier 2 cities(11)Xian,Shenyang,Qingdao,Changsha,Ningbo,Tianjin,Zhengzhou,Kunming,Dalian,Xiamen,WuxiSources:JLL Research,February 202421|2024Jones Lang LaSalle

49、IP,Inc.All rights reserved.JLL China Retail Market 2023Type A CityType BCityType CCityTotal Stock(sqm)New Supply(sqm)Face Rent YOYVacancy RateVacancy Rate YOY*Shanghai16,550,000649,000-2.5%11.0%-1.3Beijing15,023,0001,152,0001.8%6.2%-2.6Shenzhen7,483,000286,0000.2%3.0%-0.0Guangzhou5,601,000472,0000.5

50、%5.5%-1.5Total Stock(sqm)New Supply(sqm)Face Rent YOYVacancy RateVacancy Rate YOY*Chengdu11,644,000473,000-1.1%12.3%-0.0Chongqing8,884,000372,000-1.4%15.2%-0.9Wuhan8,847,000259,000-1.2%13.0%+0.7Nanjing6,409,000235,000-0.9%3.6%-0.5Hangzhou6,281,000585,000-1.9%9.7%+2.3Suzhou5,890,000394,000-1.9%10.5%+

51、0.1Total Stock(sqm)New Supply(sqm)Face Rent YOYVacancy RateVacancy Rate YOY*Xian7,181,000584,000-1.5%11.2%-0.7Shenyang6,988,000673,000-1.3%18.4%-0.9Qingdao5,878,000125,000-2.3%8.8%-0.4Changsha5,045,000355,000 0.8%10.5%+0.2Tianjin4,484,000386,000-1.2%13.0%-0.5Ningbo4,335,00093,000-1.7%13.6%-4.2Kunmin

52、g4,311,000410,000-2.3%14.9%+0.4Zhengzhou4,161,0000-0.4%11.8%+1.3Dalian2,636,0000-1.6%14.0%-1.0Xiamen2,473,000100,000-2.0%6.4%-0.5Wuxi1,787,000316,000-2.3%14.3%+0.32023 China Prime Retail Market Dashboard City SummaryNote:Dalian data updated until 3Q23;Xiamen and Zhengzhou data updated until 2Q23.Tot

53、al existing stock and new supply figureshave been rounded to the nearest thousand,so there may be some margin for error in the totals;*Vacancy rate changes are shown in percentage points22|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Sources:JLL Research,February 2024JLL China Retail Market 202

54、3New Supply:Slows down with yoygrowth falling below pre-pandemic levelsRetail stocks of Chinas major cities,202305101520Wuxi*Xiamen*Dalian*ZhengzhouKunmingNingboTianjingChangshaGuangzhouQingdaoSuzhouHangzhouNanjingShenyangXianShenzhenWuhanChongqingChengduBeijingShanghaiMillion sqmNote:*Xiamen and Zh

55、engzhou data are for the second quarter of 2023,while Dalian data is for the third quarter of 2023.Beijing has adjusted its project scope,leading to changes in the retail stock data.China retail new supply per annum024683200020202120222023Million sqmThe supply in 202

56、3 is lower than in 2022,below expectations.Type A CityType B CityType C CitySources:JLL Research,February 202423|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.JLL China Retail Market 2023New Supply:Tier-1cities account for 1/3 of new supplies nation-wideType A City32.3%Type B City29.3%Type C Cit

57、y38.4%Retail new supply by city tier,2023Prime retail supply in major cities,202393.0 100.0 125.0 235.0 259.0 285.7 315.5 354.6 372.0 386.0 393.5 410.0 471.7 472.7 584.0 585.3 649.5 672.6 1,152.0 02004006008001,0001,2001,400NingboXiamenQingdaoNanjingWuhanShenzhenWuxiChangshaChongqingTianjingSuzhouKu

58、nmingGuangzhouChengduXianHangzhouShanghaiShenyangBeijingThousand sqmTotal supply in 20237.9 million sqmType A CityType B CityType B CityThe proportion is the highest since 2018Beijings supply is significantly ahead of other cities.24|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Sources:JLL Rese

59、arch,February 2024Note:Beijing has adjusted its project scope,leading to changes in the retail stock data.JLL China Retail Market 2023China Resource14.6%China Oversea6.8%COFCO6.5%Longfor6.3%Wanda6.1%Vanke&SCPG5.9%Binjiang3.2%Ganglong2.9%Seasen2.8%Shengjing2.5%Others42.4%New Supply:Experienced develo

60、pers dominate land acquisitions and retail supplyProportion of new supply in 2023 by operatorArea share of top*developers projects by city types in ChinaTop 10 operators supply share57.6%25|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Sources:JLL Research,February 20240%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%4

61、5%50%20052006200720082009200000222023Type A CitiesType B CitiesType C CitiesNote:*JLL selected a sample of 30 domestic and foreign leading developers in the commercial real estate sectorJLL China Retail Market 202330.770.690.680.660.650.570.560.550.510.510

62、.490.470.460.450.420.420.350.330.330.300.240.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9Sqm Per PersonType A CityType B CityType C CityAverage per capita area of prime retail properties:0.50 sqm/person,increase of 0.03 sqm/person y-o-y.Per capita prime retail property area in major cities in China1Changes in ranki

63、ng comparedto the end of 2022Per Capita Retail Space:Higher tier cities faces higher levels of retail space saturationNote:The total existing stock of prime retail properties in major cities is based on data from JLL for the Q4 2023.The population figures are based on the 2021 resident population.*P

64、opulation data for Chongqing has been adjusted to reflect the resident population of the Chongqing metropolitan area.12142226|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Sources:Statistics Bureau of each city,JLL Research,February 2024JLL China Retail Market 202302004006008001,0001,200DalianGu

65、angzhouQingdaoWuxiZhengzhouKunmingShenyangXiamenHangzhouChongqingNingboTianjingChengduSuzhouXianShenzhenChangshaWuhanNanjingShanghaiBeijingThousand sqm27Shanghai IKEA LivatShenzhen Bay MixCIIWuhan SKPNanjing IFCPipeline:Beijing,Shanghai,Nanjing and Wuhan lead the pipeline in 2024Supply forecast of p

66、rime retail in major cities in China 2024Some prime retail projects in major cities in China 2024Type A CityType B CtyType C City27|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Sources:JLL Research,February 2024JLL China Retail Market 2023Pipeline:Beijing,Shanghai and Nanjing set to top the ret

67、ail pipelines over 2024-2026Forecast for new supply of prime retail properties in major cities05001,0001,5002,0002,500Thousand sqm202420252026Type A CityType B CityType C City28|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Sources:JLL Research,February 2024JLL China Retail Market 2023Vacancy ra

68、te and cumulative y-o-y change of prime retail in major citiesVacancy rate of prime retail in major cities in China 2023Note:*Zhengzhou and Xiamen updated until the Q2 2023.6.4%8.8%10.5%11.2%11.8%13.0%13.6%14.0%14.3%14.9%18.4%3.6%9.7%10.5%12.3%13.0%15.2%3.0%5.5%6.2%11.0%-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%0

69、%10%20%30%40%50%Xiamen*QingdaoChangshaXianZhengzhou*TianjinNingboDalian*WuxiKunmingShenyangNanjingHangzhouSuzhouChengduWuhanChongqingShenzhenGuangzhouBeijingShanghaiVacancy Rate(Lower Axis)Negative Growth(Upper Axis)Positive Growth(Upper Axis)Xiamen3.6%Nanjing8.8%Qingdao10.5%Changsha13.0%Wuhan3.0%Gu

70、angzhou5.5%Guangzhou15.2%Chongqing14.9%Kunming18.4%Shenyang12.3%Chengdu11.8%Zhengzhou13.0%Tianjing6.2%Beijing11.2%Xian14.0%dalianN6.4%Suzhou10.5%Wuxi14.3%Shanghai11%Hangzhou9.7%Ningbo13.6%Type A CityType B CityType C CitySources:JLL Research,February 202429|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights r

71、eserved.Vacancy Rate:A half number of cities sees correction of retail vacancy in 2023JLL China Retail Market 20230%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%4Q091Q102Q103Q104Q101Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q124Q121Q132Q133Q134Q131Q142Q143Q144Q141Q152Q153Q154Q151Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q191Q2

72、02Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q232024*2025*2026*2027*Type A CityType B CityType C CityAverageVacancy Rate:Q4 reversed to edge up particularly in tier 1 citiesNote:*Refers to the forecast valuePrime retail vacancy rates by city typesSources:JLL Research,February 202430|202

73、4Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.JLL China Retail Market 2023Supply,demand and vacancy rates of the prime retail market0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%02468520062007200820092000002220232024*2025*2026*Million sqmNew Supply(LHS)Net Absorption(

74、LHS)Vacancy Rate(RHS)“In 2024,vacancy is expected to still have upward pressure,but vacancy will gradually decline as supply pressure eases.31|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Sources:JLL Research,February 2024Note:*Refers to the forecast value.Supply-Demand Analysis:Pressure in sup

75、ply set to weigh on the sentiment in futureJLL China Retail Market 2023National Rent:Rental decline dominates with Chinas average rate yet to soft landGround floor rental change,y-o-y,2018Q3-2027Composition of retail rental change in 21 cities,2014-2023Q4-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%3Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q

76、191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q232024*2025*2026*2027*0%20%40%60%80%100%200020202120221Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23IncreaseDecreaseHold the Line32|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Sources:JLL Research,February 2024Note:*Refers to the forec

77、ast value.JLL China Retail Market 2023Retail trendsJLL China Retail Market 202302120222023EBillion YuanNew trendscome along with consumers developing intonew preference in shoppingLuxury GoodsReducing Consumption FrequencySeeking Affordable SubstitutionsTrendy Fashion ApparelSm

78、artphonesDomestic Beauty and Skincare Products01PROYAEste Lauder02050304LOralLancmeWinonaTmall Double 11 Skincare Ranking List 2023Consumer downgrade boosts demand for cost-effective domestic skincare brands,displacing international competitors.In 2023,two domestic brands top five in skincare sales

79、during“Double 11”.Sources:TmallRanking List,IDC,JLL Research,February 2024Affordable and stylish apparel,like Chengdus local brand 1807,gains consumer favor.In 2023,1807 opened offline stores in Wuhan,Chongqing,Xian,Nanjing,Hangzhou,and more cities.While 2023 mainland China luxury sales are projecte

80、d to surpass 2022,they still fall short of 2021 levels.Luxury brands are refocusing on high-net-worth individuals through price increases.Budget cuts reduce consumer frequency for electronics.In 2023.the Chinese smartphone market witnessed a decline of 5%,shipping approximately 271 million units.01L

81、OralOlay02050304LancmeEste LauderSKTmall Double 11 Skincare Ranking List 2019Mainland Chinas personalluxurygoods marketsalesCAGR40%CAGR1%326.0329.0286.0271.0-15%0%15%30%-20002004002020202120222023Million UnitsChinese Smartphones Shipment VolumeGrowth Rate33|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights r

82、eserved.JLL China Retail Market 2023Sources:Hangzhou Net,Meituan,Dianping,TF Securities,CAPA,CTS,iResearchConsulting,JLL Research,February 2024Sports Event EconomyPerformanceEconomyHoliday EconomyNighttime EconomyChinasperformingart marketexhibitsstrongsupply and demand,witha vibrant market.Offlinep

83、erformances effectivelydriveurbantourism,dining,accommodation,andcontributetothepositive development ofurbanretailbusinesses.Cumulative y-o-y growth in Chinas performing art marketNote:The data for the performances in the above chart is as of October 22,2023,and includes projected future performance

84、s;*Excludes performances at entertainment venues.141%279%150%275%0%100%200%300%Consumer spending at F&BestablishmentsHangzhous tourism ordersOrders for sports activitiesHangzhous hotel ordersDuring the Asian Games,Hangzhou Metro has accumulated 88,957 train trips and 68.9 million passenger trips.On

85、September 28,Hangzhou Metros one-day passenger traffic exceeded 5 million for the first time.Chinas domestic tourism y-o-y growth during 2024 New Years Day+155.3%135 million trips+200.7%Tourism revenue reaches 79.73 billion yuany-o-y growth compared to 2019 adjusted for comparable basis+9.4%y-o-y gr

86、owth compared to 2019 adjusted for comparable basis+5.6%Holiday consumption playsaprominentroleineconomicrecovery,withtravellernumbersandtourism revenue returningtopre-pandemic levels0%500%1000%1500%1QYTD2QYTD3QYTDNational Commercial Performances*Box Office RevenueAudience AttendanceKey y-o-y growth

87、 in various events during the Asian Games in HangzhouOverall development of Chinas nighttime economy scaleRetail Operation:Extendingopen hours,making efforts in retail place making15.6%16.9%17.6%16.7%13.4%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%0.010.020.030.040.050.060.0200222023ETrillion YuanNighttime E

88、conomy ScaleY-o-Y Growth Rate34|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.JLL China Retail Market 2023Investment MarketJLL China Retail Market 2023012345678Billion yuanConsumer financing cools down as the number and size of financing activities contract80706050403020100Number and size of fin

89、ancing activities in new consumer sectors(partial statistics)20222023New consumer tracksQ1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023202220232023 y-o-y growthFinancingquantitydeal89483129399196-50.9%Financing amountbillionyuan10.48.37.56.063.232.2-49.1%Single financing amountbillion yuan/deal0.090.060.040.050.0630.0

90、62-3.6%20222023dealSources:iBrandi,JLL Research,February 202410 11 11 11 1210 11 1237|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.JLL China Retail Market 2023Billion-dollar financing deals slide,but appetite remains strong for F&B and pet sectorsBi

91、llion-dollar financing volume(monthly)Breakdown of billion-dollar financing sectors in 20230545678910 11 10 11 1220222023deal38|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Annual billion-dollar financing drops by 59.5%from 21 deals in 2022 to 12 deals in 2023.Sources:iBra

92、ndiJLL ResearchFebruary 2024JLL China Retail Market 2023F&B sector tops the investment;Pet and silver economy gains investor attentionFinancing sector distribution by quantity in 202339|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Beauty and Personal Care8.1%Lifestyle6.2%Pets7.1%3C/Gadgets5.9%C

93、offe&Drinks21.7%Food21.7%Catering8.7%F&B58.4%F&B accounts for over half of the market shareIn Q4 2023,F&B financing maintains the lead,accounting for nearly 60%of the annual total.Within the food sector,Chain restaurants and snack outlets remain popular.For example,snack brand,Busy For You,secured a

94、 strategic financing of 1.05 billion,marking the largest investment in the new consumer sector this year.In the beverage sector,creative tea,coffee,and yogurt brands gain investors favor.Pet-related business sees remarkable growthPet sector records a total of 23 deals in the year,with 4 financing ac

95、tivities exceeding ten million yuan,encompassing pet healthcare,services,and smart products.Amidst dropping birth rate,companion-centric pet economy and silver economy targeting older consumers win increasing favor in the capital market.Overall investment cools offInvestment events and thetotal inve

96、stment amount witness significant y-o-y reduction;average financing per deal declines,investment categories contract.Only a few new consumer categories such as F&B,beauty and personal care,and pets garnered investments in the Q4.sources iBrandi,JLL Research,February 2024JLL China Retail Market 2023C

97、hina retail market summaryDemandStructural recovery in consumptionRapid traffic recovery drives continued growth in contact-based consumption,reviving vibrancy in offline sectors such as dining,entertainment,and services.Consumer income expectations adjust continuously with economic conditions,leadi

98、ng to crowding-out effects on current consumption expenditures,resulting in a relatively slow pace of recovery in most retail goods consumption.New lease demand gradually declines,showing slight fatigue,coupled with retail brands adopting more cautious expansion decisions,resulting in a slower desto

99、cking progress in the second half compared to the first half of the year.SupplySupply falls short of pre-pandemic levelsIn 2023,the market witnessed a rollercoaster year in terms of new supply,starting strong but ending on a subdued note.The first half saw a surge in new supply,fueled by the release

100、 of pent-up demand from the pandemic-induced backlog,reaching a new high in supply.However,the second half returned to normalcy,marking an overall decline.The uneven recovery on the demand side has put pressure on mall leasing activities,with several projects experiencing subpar pre-leasing conditio

101、ns towards the year-end and opting for extensions,thereby dampening overall supply.Across 21 cities in China,the total new supply of prime retail real estate amounted to 7.917 million square meters in 2023,representing a 2.3%year-on-year decrease,only surpassing the levels seen in 2020 over the past

102、 decade.RentalTrading volume for valueAs consumer demand experiences an uneven recovery,the extent of retail consumption revival falls short of expectations,resulting in a slowdown in year-end retail sales growth.Meanwhile,vacancy rates remain elevated in several cities,prompting a reluctant resort

103、to trading volume for value in leasing efforts.Operational pressures persist as the prevailing sentiment in the market.In 2023,the average rent for prime shopping centers ground floors in 21 Chinese cities saw a year-on-year decline of 1.0 percentage point,with rents yet to stabilize,registering a f

104、ourth-quarter drop of-0.6%.40|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Sources:JLL Research,February,2024JLL China Retail Market 2023Future OutlookJLL China Retail Market 2023Rebuild ConfidenceJLL China Retail Market 20232000002220232024*2025*2026

105、*Actual Total Retail SalesPost-pandemic Forecast for Total Retail SalesFitted Values Under Non-pandemic Assumption for Total Retail SalesForecast for Total Retail Sales with Effective Consumption Policy ImpactTotal Retail SalesNote:The fitted values are calculated using a triple exponential smoothin

106、g method based on historical data since 2010.Chinas total retail sales actual,future forecast,and non-pandemic assumption fitted valuesConsumption recovers to narrow the gap upon effective stimulus policySources:NationalStatistics Bureau,JLL Research,February 202443|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All

107、 rights reserved.JLL China Retail Market 20233.0%-1.3%-9%-6%-3%0%3%6%9%12%15%18%9,7009,8009,90010,00010,10010,20010,30010,40010,50010,6002021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4YuanNational Average Salary(LHS)M-o-M Change(RHS)Y-o-Y Change(RHS)Sources:“2023 Annual Workplace Insi

108、ghts Report”,“China Enterprise Recruitment Salary Report”,JLL Research,February,2024Proportion and y-o-y growth of job postings in the top 10 cities(digital technology talent only),20231.7%2.0%3.0%3.4%4.9%5.9%8.7%12.2%13.5%15.5%0.2%0.6%1.7%-0.1%-2.1%-1.3%-1.5%-3.1%-1.3%-5.6%-20.0%-16.0%-12.0%-8.0%-4

109、.0%0.0%4.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%XianNanjingSuzhouWuhanHangzhouChengduGuangzhouShanghahiShenzhenBeijingProportion of Job Postings in 2023(Lower Axis)Y-o-Y Decline Rate(Uper Axis)Y-o-Y Growth Rate(Uper Axis)Average salary and m-o-m/y-o-y changes in 38 core cities Job market sentiment worsens,average sa

110、laries for new openings edges down44|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.JLL China Retail Market 2023Consumer confidence remainsweak with expectation of stimulus package to arriveConsumer confidence index8090000001907201

111、909200200320200520200720200920202222032022052022072022092022303202305202307202309202311Consumer Confidence IndexConsumer Satisfaction IndexConsumer Expectation IndexSources:NationalStatistics Bureau,JLL Research,February,202445|2024Jo

112、nes Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.JLL China Retail Market 2023Explore OpportunitiesJLL China Retail Market 2023Outlets:Gains popularity amid the wave of economic downturnRevenue from outlet business of different retail operators(partial data)-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%-800-40

113、004008001,2001,6002,00020212022Q1-Q3 202320212022Q1-Q3 2023Million YuanOutlet Revenue(LHS)Y-o-Y Growth Rrate(RHS)12.6%13.0%16.1%3.3%3.1%4.3%Proportion of Outlet Revenue to its Overall RevenueOperator AOperator B6.5%-0.4%4.5%4.9%7.5%8.4%8.8%26.3%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%Retail sales by above-quota units

114、SupermarketSpecialty StoreSpecialty ShopConvenience StorePhysical Commodity Online RetailDepartment Store Outlets*Annual sale growth rate of retail business in 2023(above-quota)Until the third quarter of 2023,the average year-over-year growth rate of sales is 26.3%for outlets business;the average ye

115、ar-over-year growth rate of customer traffic in outlets is close to 35%,significantly higher than the same period in 2022.Note:*Outlet data statistics cover the first three quarters of 2023.Sources:National Bureau of Statistics,Company Financial Reports,CCFA,Dataquest,JLL Research,February 202447|20

116、24Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.JLL China Retail Market 2023Airport Commercial:A bridge to the consumer surplus of air travellersAirport commercial index*by cities,2023PKXPEKSHASZXCKGCANTFU01211132.334.237.049.352.757.963.676.997.699.500708090100XianH

117、angzhouNanjingHaikouChongqingGuangzhouShenzhenChengduShanghaiBeijingNote:*The index is standardized and processed based on data from JLL,following a normal distribution with a mean of 40 and a standard deviation of 20.536.8574.6407.3438.5249.4583.8-50%0%50%100%150%200%-2000200400600800200

118、2120222023Million Passenger TripsDomestic(LHS)Hong Kong,Macau,and Taiwan(LHS)International(LHS)Total Transport Volume Growth Rate(RHS)Luxury brand presence at major airports in China(number of stores)Passenger transport volume of different airline routeIn 2023,the entire airline industry achieved a

119、passenger transport volume ofapproximately 620 million,reaching 93.9%of the levels seen in 2019.Domestic routes experienced a growth of 1.6%compared to 2019.Sources:Company financial reports,brand official website,CAAC,JLL Research,February 202448|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.JL

120、L China Retail Market 2023Transportation43%Industrial Park 15%Energy 13%Commercial and Consumer12%Warehousing and Logistics 9%Affordable Rental Housing 5%Ecological and Environmental Protection 3%C-REITs:Pointing to higher liquidity for retail asset re-financing upon the softening policyCR Commercia

121、l REITCICC InCityREITHuaxiaKingmoREITChinaAMC Wumart REITUnderlying AssetsQingdao MixCHangzhou West Lake InCityChangsha Lanxiu CityDacheng,Yutingqiao,Huatian,DeshengmenAsset TypeShopping CenterShopping CenterShopping CenterCommunity CommercialOperating PartyCR Vanguard LifeSCPG GroupChina JinmaoWuma

122、rtGroupBuilding Area(sqm)301,186.7144,125.8102,741.677,894.3Underlying Asset Valuation(billion yuan)8.24.01.11.02023 OccupancyRate*98.8%98.1%98.4%88.7%2023 Operating Revenue (million yuan)502.4163.457.733.8Planned Fundraising Scale (billion yuan)6.93.61.11.0Sources:CSRC,SSE,SZSE,JLL Research,Februar

123、y 2024Note:*CR commercial REITs occupancy rate and revenue are for the period of Jan.to Sep.,while other REITs data is for the period of Jan.to Jun.The fundraising scale for Consumer Infrastructure REITs is a projected value.Distribution of fundraising scale in the C-REITs marketOverview of underlyi

124、ng assets for approved consumption-related REITs Proportion of various categories of REITs49|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.JLL China Retail Market 2023C-REITs:A higher level ofdividend yield rate expected in retail assets50|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Note:T

125、he distribution rate for Consumer Infrastructure REITs is a projected value for 2024,while the distribution rate for other property-based REITs is based on data from 2023.4.8%4.9%4.9%6.7%3.7%4.3%4.8%3.6%4.5%4.5%4.6%4.6%4.7%4.8%5.3%5.4%4.3%4.3%4.3%4.4%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%ChinaAMC Kingmo REITCICC InCi

126、ty REITCR Commercial REITChinaAMC Wumart REITPrologis Warehousing LogisticsJD.com Warehousing LogisticsYantian Port Warehousing LogisticsZhangjiang Industrial ParkHefei High-tech Industrial ParkDongwu Suyuan Industrial ParkBoshi Shekou Industrial ParkHeda High-techHubei High-tech Optics ValleyZhongg

127、uancun Industrial ParkLingang Innovation Industrial ParkDongjiu New Economy ParkShenzhen Affordable HousingBeijing Affordable HousingXiamen Affordable HousingCR Youtha6.7%4.8%4.9%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%MaximumMinimumMedian1.Warehousing and Logistics2.Park Infrastructure3.Affordable Rental Housing4.Cons

128、umer InfrastructureDividend yield of C-REITs projectsComparative analysis dividend yield across C-REITs typesSources:SSE,SZSE,JLL Research,February 2024JLL China Retail Market 2023Shift in MomentumJLL China Retail Market 2023Service consumption outpaces goods counterparts,implying consumer behavior

129、changePer capita expenditure on services and changes in proportion566789.7%40.3%41.1%41.8%42.6%44.2%45.9%42.6%44.2%43.2%45.2%38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%0246800020202120222023Thousand YuanPer Capita Expenditure on Service Consumption(LHS)Proportion of Service

130、Consumption Expenditure(RHS)2.9%4.9%7.3%7.9%6.8%5.9%5.6%5.5%5.6%5.9%5.8%9.2%13.9%19.8%22.6%21.4%20.5%19.4%18.7%18.5%19.4%20.4%20.3%19.4%18.9%19.0%19.5%20.0%0%10%20%30%JAN.-FEB.JAN.-MAR.JAN.-APR.JAN.-MAYJAN.-JUN.JAN.-JUL.JAN.-AUG.JAN.-SEP.JAN.-OCT.JAN.-NOV.JAN.-DEC.Retail SalesCatering RevenueService

131、 Retail*Monthly cumulative growth rates of 2023 for retail sales,catering revenue,and service retailNote:*National service retail data for periods before July 2023 has not been disclosed.Sources:NationalStatistics Bureau,JLL Research,February 202452|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.

132、JLL China Retail Market 2023China consumers are turning more cost-sensitive in shopping and buying goodsMarket share percentage of Chinese major E-commerce platformsY-o-Y growth rate of average selling prices of urban fast-moving consumer goods3.5%-1.0%-0.9%-2.5%-0.2%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4

133、.0%200223Q23 YTDCPI Y-o-Y Growth Rate(%)Urban Fast-moving Consumer Goods Price(%)Note:Market share of Alibaba,JD.com,Pinduoduocalculated based on gross profit.sourcesNational Statistics Bureau,Kantar Consumer Index Research,Bain Analysis,Financial reports,JLL Research,February 202466.5%62

134、.1%56.4%56.3%24.5%25.6%26.0%23.3%9.0%12.3%17.5%20.4%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020202120223Q23 YTDAlibabaJDPDD53|2024Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.PDD,renowned for its cost-effectiveness,is favored and has been increasing its market share.Consumers are becoming increasingly pr

135、ice-sensitive,average selling price of urban fast-moving consumer goods remain below the CPI growth.JLL Research Contacts in ChinaSilvia Zeng Head of Research,JLL South CYang MiHead of Research,JLL North CJacky ZhuHead of Research,JLL West CSissi Lu Director,Research JLL West CDaniel YaoHead of Rese

136、arch,JLL CBruce PangHead of Research,JLL Greater ChinaChief Economist,JLL Greater CTina GanSenior Analyst,Research JLL West CSherril ShengDirector,ResearchJLL East CHera ZhangSenior Analyst,ResearchJLL North CAuthorsJacky ZhuHead of Retail Research,JLL CRebecca LongAssistant Manager,Research JLL West CJiemin WuHead of REIS ChinaJLL CJonathan WuSenior Analyst,ResearchJLL CJLL Retail Research Contacts in ChinaVeronica XuSenior Analyst,ResearchJLL South CSissi Lu Director,Research JLL West C