1、The annual Bain-Altagamma Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study projects a new record as spending on experiences recovers to historic highs,fueled by a resurgence in social interactions and travel.By Claudia DArpizio,Federica Levato,Andrea Steiner,and Jolle de MontgolfierLong Live Luxury:Converge to E

2、xpand through TurbulenceCopyright 2024 Bain&Company,Inc.All rights reserved.About the authors The Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study was authored by Claudia DArpizio,Federica Levato,and Andrea Steiner.This report was written by Jolle de Montgolfier with support from Hlne Glaser.Claudia DArpizio()is

3、 a Bain&Company partner based in Milan and the leader of the firms Global Luxury and Fashion vertical.Federica Levato()is a Bain partner and a leading member of the Luxury and Fashion vertical.She is based in Bains Milan office.Andrea Steiner()is a senior manager in Bains Milan office.He also works

4、with the firms Luxury and Fashion vertical.Jolle de Montgolfier()is Bains global practice executive vice president for Retail,Luxury,and Consumer Products.She is based in the firms Paris office.Hlne Glaser is a practice consultant in Bains Retail practice.She is based in the firms Paris office.1Long

5、 Live Luxury:Converge to Expand through TurbulenceContentsExecutive summary .2Luxury spending trends in 2023 .5Regional highlights.12Distribution trends .16Individual category performance .19Outlook for the future .22Appendix.272Long Live Luxury:Converge to Expand through TurbulenceExecutive summary

6、Despite challenging macroeconomic conditions,we estimate the overall luxury market reached 1.5 trillion globally in 2023,a robust 8%to 10%growth over 2022 at current exchange rates(11%to 13%at constant exchange rates),setting a record for the industry and proving its unparalleled resilience.These ar

7、e key findings from the 22nd edition of the annual Luxury Study,released by Bain&Company and Fondazione Altagamma,the trade association of Italian luxury goods manufacturers.The overall luxury industry tracked by Bain&Company encompasses both luxury goods and experiences.It comprises nine segments,l

8、ed by luxury cars,luxury hospitality,and personal luxury goods,which together account for more than 80%of the total market.The growth in total spending was consistent with the growth rate in 2022 and translated to a nearly 160 billion increment in spending across all luxury segments.In particular,sp

9、ending on experiences recovered to historic highs,fueled by a resurgence in social interactions and travel.The market for personal luxury goodsthe“core of the core”of luxury segments and the focus of this analysiscontinued growing and is likely to have reached 362 billion in 2023,4%higher than 2022

10、at current exchange rates(8%at constant exchange rates).However,the market performance softened quarter by quarter,and uncertainty remained heading into the fourth quarter,with diverging signals coming from a reaccelerating Chinese market and decelerating markets in the US and Europe.This slowdown h

11、as resulted in growing performance polarization.In 2023,we estimate that about two-thirds of brands experienced growth(vs.95%in 2022).Average profitability stabilized as a result of the counterbalancing forces of inflationary pressure and continued investment for the future against sustained price e

12、levation.Asia and Europe propelled luxury through 2023 Global luxury tourist purchases have nearly returned to prepandemic levels in absolute value,but upside potential remains(in particular,to catch up to preCovid-19 market share).Asia set the pace for growth thanks to strong domestic demand and a

13、renewed influx of Chinese tourists across the region.Japan boomed due to local customers and a weak yen favoring touristic inflows.Mainland China posted a strong performance after its first quarter reopening but slowed progressively as new macroeconomic concerns arose.Southeast Asian countries exper

14、ienced positive momentum from strong intraregional tourism and growing interest from local consumers,especially in Thailand.Conversely,South Korea faced a challenging year,with unfavorable macroeconomic headwinds slowing local consumption,a strong currency that led tourists to buy elsewhere,and Kore

15、an outflows to international destinations.3Europe continued to benefit from the progressive pickup of tourism,which stimulated growth across all countries,with resort locations attracting high spenders alongside key luxury cities.Even if macroeconomic instability impacted local aspirational customer

16、s,the top customers maintained a positive momentum that fueled market growth.Meanwhile,the Americas region has decelerated throughout the year,posting an 8%drop from 2022 as widespread uncertainty put a dent in aspirational customers spending.Top customers remained confident but shifted their spendi

17、ng abroad,as the US dollar remained strong against the Euro and price differentials favored overseas purchases.In the rest of the world,Saudi Arabia accelerated,attracting investments from major luxury brands,and Australia provided fertile ground for growth.An unprecedented quest for in-store experi

18、ences infused with digitalMonobrand stores led the distribution ecosystem,favored by consumers thirst for a return to in-person interactions.Stores continued to blend physical and digital experiences,as epitomized by the increasing role of clienteling in sales.Multi-brand environments suffered from

19、a sharp slowdown in both department and specialty stores,with rising questions on their role and value proposition to best serve consumer needs in the future.Online market share,which is increasingly difficult to track separately from stores,saw a marginal erosion;within that channel,monobrand websi

20、tes experienced a normalization of their growth,while online retailers quest for traffic has pushed toward increased markdowns.Jewelry shinesAll personal luxury goods categories grew due to continued price elevation,partially undermining volumes for the first time in a decade.Fueled by an investment

21、 mindset,jewelry was set to reach 30 billion in market value in 2023,with fine jewelry affirming itself as a bright spot for investments amid uncertainty.Ready-to-wear was on a positive trend,favored by top spenders in the ultra-high offering,with unfolding demand for excellence and durability.Beaut

22、y,propelled by makeup and fragrances,enjoyed positive momentum thanks to the notorious“lipstick effect”the phenomenon that consumers feel inclined to treat themselves to less costly luxury goods in times of economic crisisin the Americas and Europe.Watches continued to thrive despite a rising polari

23、zation around a few industry winners.And after overperformance in recent years,growth in leather goods and shoes slowed.Multigenerational complexity unfoldsBrands must navigate through rising multigenerational complexity.Generations X and Y are in their peak income years,representing the bulk of lux

24、ury purchases and the key pool of income growth in the near future.However,Generation Z is positioned at the forefront of social and cultural change,4inspiring other generations value systems,with a strong desire for lived experiences and a quest for meaning.By 2030,Gen Z will account for 25%to 30%o

25、f luxury market purchases,while millennials will account for 50%to 55%.Whats next for luxury in 2024 and beyond?Our research suggests a relatively soft personal luxury goods performance in 2024,achieving low-to mid-single-digit growth over 2023,based on current scenarios.Looking ahead to 2030,solid

26、fundamentals are poised to continue propelling market growth,despite possible bumps along the way.In an increasingly crowded market,brands must focus on creativity and innovation to enhance relevance to consumers,with the ultimate goal of continuing to expand their client bases while cultivating bra

27、nd lovers.In a period of growth deceleration,brands will also need to pay attention to profit levels and rein in costs across the value chain.This can include initiatives targeted at higher accuracy of business planning and demand forecasting with the help of artificial intelligence,tighter inventor

28、y management,cost variabilization,and more.We should see a new season of M&A born of the necessity to address key challenges of the industryfor instance,to support category growth,expand in a new geography,or secure control of critical resources or know-how.Leading on sustainability and embracing te

29、chnology will continue to be key,in particular to redesign supply chain setups for more transparency,agility,resiliency,and a lower carbon footprint.5 5 The overall luxury market tracked by Bain&Company comprises nine segments:luxury cars,personal luxury goods,luxury hospitality,fine wines and spiri

30、ts,gourmet food and fine dining,high-end furniture and housewares,fine art,private jets and yachts,and luxury cruises.Luxury cars,luxury hospitality,and personal luxury goods together account for 80%of the total market.We estimate that in 2023 the luxury markets overall retail sales value grew to 1.

31、51 trillion,an 11%to 13%increase over 2022 at constant exchange rates,in line with last years growth rate of 12%over 2021.All luxury segments grew and have finally closed the gap with preCovid-19 levels(including luxury hospitality,which has been the slowest to rebound).Since 2019,the Americas and A

32、sia have been the two main sources of growth for overall luxury spending.Sales of luxury cars,the biggest portion of the overall market,hit a new record,reaching an estimated 635 billion,12%more than 2022 at current exchange rates and 15%above 2019.Following years of restricted growth from supply ch

33、ain disruptions,luxury cars achieved substantial expansion across all segments,building on a robust order book.The absolute luxury segment grew the fastest due to increased demand for ultra-customized solutions,confirming the continued interest in sustainable powertrains.The aspirational segment gre

34、w steadily,led by the rising popularity of electric vehicles.Within accessible segments,new Asian market entrants gained ground due to shifting consumer loyalty in the region.All brands continue to push to establish more direct relationships with their clients to enhance both the purchase and after-

35、sales experiences.The role of online expanded,becoming an increasingly relevant purchasing channel.The luxury hospitality market rose to an estimated 213 billion.It finally surpassed its preCovid-19 levels,propelled by increased occupancy and a stabilizing Average Daily Rate.US and Latin America exp

36、erienced positive momentum fueled by intraregional tourism.China remained below prepandemic levels despite reopening borders.Across regions,consumer expectations are rising as room rates stabilize at higher levels than in the past.Weve seen a surge in the appetite for unique,personalized,and transfo

37、rmative experiences that foster a“disconnection”Luxury spending trends in 20236from normal life.High Net Worth and Ultra High Net Worth Individuals have heightened experience expectations beyond traditional luxury amenities.Impact-consciousness,particularly among younger generations,favors more auth

38、entic and culturally immersive experiences and accelerates sustainable practices.Rising service expectations call for new technology solutions and data usage.Sales of fine wines and spirits hit 100 billion,up 5%on 2022.Fine wines posted mild growth,with the resurgence of social interactions and conv

39、iviality occasions partially hampered by a downtrading of aspirational consumers.Sparkling and ros wines showed the strongest momentum.Spirits were on an upward trajectory;however,there were stark variations between meditation-driven(at-home)spirits,which decelerated,and mixology-led(out-of-home)spi

40、rits,which accelerated.While cognac and whiskey were impacted by reduced at-home time and the normalization of US consumption,agave-based spirits maintained strong momentum,stealing“share of throat”from gins in mixology occasions.Gourmet food and fine dining grew 10%at current exchange rates to 69 b

41、illion.The strong growth in fine dining primarily stems from the growth of an“entertainment-is-the-star”segment.The high-end furniture and housewares market remained steady at 53 billion.After the postpandemic hypergrowth,the segment normalized,with the real estate market cooling down,although high-

42、end residential projects continued demonstrating notable resilience.The fine art market grew 2%to 42 billion.Public auctions underwent a gradual downturn attributable to a lethargic US market and recent geopolitical disruptions,further compounded by inconsistent performance in Asia.In contrast,deale

43、rships expanded,extending their physical locations as collectors seek in-person interactions in the postCovid-19 era.A shift toward Gen Y and female clientele is noticeable,fueling an interest in subjects related to diversity,equity,and inclusion(DEI)and favoring the online channel.Following a conti

44、nuous rise of prices in previous years,only select masterpieces held their anticipated valuations in 2023.Sales of private yachts and jets grew by 11%at current exchange rates relative to 2022,reaching 29 billion.Luxury yachts continued growing,fueled by a strong order book accrued in previous years

45、.Europe confirmed its role as a key region,while US and China experienced slower growth due to more challenging macroeconomic fundamentals.The private jet market also continued growing,propelled by increasing enthusiasm for custom-made interior designs and rising interest in shared-ownership models

46、and sustainable aviation fuels.The market for luxury cruises reached 4 billion,more than doubling from 2022 as pandemic-related restrictions lifted.Consumers affirmed interest in the new ultra-luxury segment as well as unconventional voyages.Several high-end hospitality and travel players have progr

47、essively entered the segment,with one ship already launched and more than five planned for the near future.7 When segmented into goods vs.experiences,discretionary spending rebalanced toward experiences in 2023.They observed the steepest growth rate at 15%,followed by experience-based goods(such as

48、fine art and luxury cars)at 10%,and products at 3%.Demand for luxury experiences reached historic highs as consumers,fueled by a sense of longing for social life and traveling,reengaged with luxury beyond products.The market for personal luxury goodsthe heart of the entire luxury industrysaw its gro

49、wth rate normalize at 4%at current exchange rates.Sales,however,hit a new record in 2023,with the market forecast to reach 362 billion by year end.The most likely outcome in the fourth quarter of 2023 is a stabilization of sales compared with the last quarter of 2022.8Notes:Growth shown at constant

50、exchange rates;E indicates estimated valueSource:Bain&CompanyWorldwide luxury spending,202123E(billions)+12%+11%13%1,50802122 growth2022202223E growth2023ENote:E indicates estimated valueSource:Bain&CompanyWorldwide luxury spending,2023E(billions)36263522941,508Personalluxurygo

51、ods LuxurycarsLuxuryhospitality Finewinesandspirits Gourmetfoodand finedining High-endfurnitureandhouse-wares FineartPrivate jets andyachts LuxurycruisesTotal202223E growth 201923E overall growth at current exchange rates4%868%at current exchange ratesat constant exc

52、hange rates28%30%0Figure 2:Luxury spending continued to grow around the same pace as last yearFigure 1:Global luxury spending hit a new record this year,with hospitality finally recovering above prepandemic levels9Notes:Growth shown at current exchange rates;E indica

53、tes estimated value;experience-based goods include fine art,luxury cars,private jets and yachts,fine wines and spirits,and gourmet food;personal goods include high-end furniture/housewares and personal luxury goods;experiences include luxury hospitality,cruises,and fine diningSource:Bain&CompanyGrow

54、th of global luxury spending by segment(indexed to 100 in 2010)2010 6223E100240CAGR202223ECAGR201019CAGR201923EExperience-based goods ExperiencesPersonal goods10%8%4%9%6%1%7%15%3%Note:E indicates estimated valueSource:Bain&CompanyShare of global luxury spending,201923E(billions

55、)201934%29%33%4%1,2712023E30%29%37%4%1,508Rest of worldAPACAmericasEurope1%3%6%8%4%6%CAGR2019233%5%Figure 4:Luxury-related experiences returned in 2023,fueled by a resurgence in social interactions and travelFigure 3:Since 2019,Asia and the Americas have significantly contributed to growth in luxury

56、 spending10Note:E indicates estimated valueSource:Bain&CompanyShare of worldwide luxury spending by segment and geography,2023E(billions)Personalluxurygoods 362Luxurycars635Luxuryhospitality213LimitedsupplyFine winesand spirits 100Gourmetfood andfine dining 69High-endfurnitureandhousewares 53Fine ar

57、t42Private jetsand yachts 29Luxurycruises4Rest of worldAPACAmericasEuropeMostly spiritsMostly winesMostly jetsMostly yachtsNotes:E indicates estimated value;experience-based goods include fine art,luxury cars,private jets and yachts,fine wines and spirits,and gourmet food;luxury products include hig

58、h-end furniture/housewares and personal luxury goods;experiences include luxury hospitality,cruises,and fine diningSource:Bain&CompanyWorldwide luxury spending by segment,200823E(billions)Personal goodsExperiencesExperience-based goods53%18%29%53%16%31%PostcrisisconsumerismTravel takes offTreating y

59、ourself withexperiences andexperience-based goodsBack toproductswith self-giftingExperiences at thecenter of“new normal”7%CAGR2010-23E54%56%55%56%19%27%19%24%15%29%16%28%2008200222023EFigure 5:Luxury spending has shifted over timeproducts generally grow fast after crises,but theres a long

60、-term trend toward experiencesFigure 6:Regional luxury spending varies meaningfully by segment11Note:E indicates estimated valueSource:Bain&CompanyGlobal personal luxury goods market,estimated quarterly growth(at current exchange rates)18%Q225%Q312%Q428%Q112%Q18%Q23%Q3Q4E12%12%4%4%QOQ growth vs.2022

61、 atconstant exchange ratesBest case:+5%Base case:0%Worst case:5%20222023QOQ growth vs.2021QOQ growth vs.2022Expected full-year market growth by scenario(202223E)Best case+6%+9%at constantexchange ratesBase case+4%+8%at constantexchange ratesWorst case+2%+6%at constantexchange ratesNote:E indicates e

62、stimated valueSource:Bain&CompanyGlobal personal luxury goods market(billions)19962019 CAGR+6%201922 overall growth+24%currentexchange rates+20%constantexchange rates202223E growth+4%currentexchange rates+8%constantexchange rates1996 979899 2000 00708095122 23E768488

63、116122 6207245 24425426228809220“Sortie du temple”DemocratizationCrisisChinese acceleration RebootNew normalCovid-19crisis andreboundNormalization?Figure 8:Growth has decelerated quarterly,and the fourth quarter faces headwinds with slowdowns in Europe and

64、 the US,but China is on a positive trendFigure 7:Despite uncertainty,personal luxury goods posted another year of growth1212 The global ranking by region changed in 2023,as Europe regained the top position for personal luxury goods sales.The Americas decelerated and switched to second position,follo

65、wed by mainland China.Consumption was strong in Europe at 102 billion.All markets fared well,despite the deceleration of purchases by local customers throughout the year due to macroeconomic uncertainty.However,Very Important Customers and tourists kept positive momentum.Our analysis of Global Blue

66、tax-free spending data shows that the spending of US tourists in Europe has grown 2.5 times between 2019 and 2023,while that of tourists from the Middle East has been multiplied by 1.7 over the same period.However,spending by Chinese tourists is yet to recover,at about only 40%of its 2019 level.Over

67、all,spending by tourists on luxury goods in Europe grew by 50%over 2022,entirely propped up by higher ticket value,as both the number of shoppers and number of purchases declined.The personal luxury goods market reached an estimated 101 billion in the Americas region,declining 8%over 2022.The market

68、 decelerated throughout the year,with aspirational customers hitting the brakes on luxury purchases.However,top customers still held up,yet partially shifted their spending abroad and toward luxury segments other than products.Most countries in Latin America suffered,except for Mexico.Mainland China

69、 grew by 9%at current exchange rates over 2022.The year started strong but progressively slowed as macroeconomic concerns arose.The economic stimulus from the third quarter is likely to encourage growth of local consumption as well as investments in new Tier 1 megacities.Hainan is poised to become a

70、 bright luxury hub,as China plans to make it an entirely duty-free island(with an ad-hoc tax system)by 2025.Asia(excluding mainland China and Japan)grew by 8%.Southeast Asia confirmed its positive momentum,anchored in a growing local customer base,sound tourism flows,and foreign Regional highlights

71、13investments.Thailand led in terms of growth.Hong Kong and Macao boomed back in the first half of the year yet decelerated in the second half due to soft touristic inflows.Local consumption slowed down in South Korea due to unfavorable macroeconomics and a strong currency that led tourists to other

72、 destinations;however,South Korea remains a primary source of influence in the region.Japan was the fastest-growing region at 17%at current exchange rates over 2022,up to 29 billion.The market benefited from renewed energy and interest of local customers.A weak yen attracted tourist inflows(especial

73、ly from China)throughout the year,with luxury products as one of many spending items.Brands struck exclusive partnerships with local craftsmanship and creativity to increase their cultural relevance.The rest of the world grew at 9%at current exchange rates to reach 17 billion.The Middle East showed

74、strong growth across the board,but the war resulted in an abrupt shock that creates uncertainty for the coming months.Dubai remains the key regional hub.Saudi Arabia is accelerating and still offers large untapped potential that attracts investments from major luxury brands.Australia is proving fert

75、ile ground for growth,with local labels starting to gain interest among luxury consumers.Globally,tourism has been reinvigorated with the reopening of borders that followed the lifting of Covid-19 lockdowns at the end of 2022.In absolute value,tourists spending on luxury items is almost back to its

76、prepandemic levels,but with a share of only 30%of global luxury purchases,compared with 40%in 2019,there is still room for growth.14Notes:E indicates estimated value;segments may not total 100%due to roundingSource:Bain&CompanyShare of global personal luxury goods market(billions)28117%22%10%33%13%6

77、%34922%24%32%34%6%8%17%19%13%15%4636220%22%28%30%6%8%21%23%14%16%57CAGR2019-2219%24%3%13%10%5%CAGR2019-23E13%15%0%4%10%6%CAGR2022-23E2%to 4%6%to 8%8%to 10%25%to 27%7%to 9%7%to 9%CAGR2019-222%10%0%24%4%8%CAGR2019-23E4%5%5%17%7%10%CAGR2022-23E6%to 8%7%to 9%16%to 18%8%to 10%7%to 9%8%to 10%Rest of world

78、Rest of AsiaJapanChinaEuropeAmericas201920222023E32%30%8%11%15%4%2812019 27%32%7%15%15%5349202228%28%8%16%15%53622023ERest of worldOther AsianChineseAmericanEuropeanJapaneseBy consumer nationalityBy regionNotes:E indicates estimated value;growth shown at current exchange rates;India included in Rest

79、 of AsiaSource:Bain&CompanyGlobal personal luxury goods market,by region(billions)CAGR201023E6%10%8%to 10%4%4%6%to 8%5%5%7%to 9%15%17%8%to 10%4%5%16%to 18%8%7%7%to 9%CAGR201923ECAGR202223EAmericasEuropeMainlandChinaJapanRest of AsiaRest of world22262281718

80、201023EFigure 10:American customers remained the most active,while Europe benefited from international tourismFigure 9:Americas growth decelerated significantly,while Japan grew the fastest15Note:E indicates estimated valueSource:Bain&CompanyGlobal personal luxury goods market,201923E(bil

81、lions)70%30%36290%10%34960%40%2812019TouristsLocal customers20222023EFigure 11:Globally,tourists spending is nearly back to prepandemic levels in absolute value,but theres still room to grow1616 Brands continued to exert more control over their distribution,with directly operated channels increasing

82、 in importance again.For the first time ever,the retail channels share surpassed the wholesale channel,at 52%and 48%,respectively.Monobrand stores grew by about 11%,boosted by the willingness of customers to return to in-person shopping.That said,customer journeys increasingly blended physical and d

83、igital touchpoints.Over the past two years,net store openings have declined 40%to 45%compared with prepandemic trends,but brands have pushed to increase average store sizes,in order to make space for more experiential shopping journeys.The online channel growth decelerated compared with previous yea

84、rs,as consumers favored physical interactions after years of restriction,resulting in a slight erosion of the channels market share,down to about 20%.Within that channel,the growth of monobrand websites normalized;e-tailers pushed on markdowns.Department and specialty stores struggled due to uncerta

85、in value propositions that resulted in high inventory levels and markdowns.Travel retail was reignited by the return of global tourists.The off-price channel grew,benefiting from a surplus of inventory and propelled by aspirational customers seeking bargains.The secondhand luxury goods market rose t

86、o 45 billion in 2023.Sales growth eased 4%to 6%,in line with the 4%gain posted by luxury goodsa confirmation of the normalization of“preloved”items already observed last year.Europe remained the largest market,accounting for around 45%to 50%of global secondhand luxury sales;the US followed as the se

87、cond-largest market,with growing interest for preloved timeless bags.Hard luxury(defined as the combination of watches and jewelry)still represents more than 80%of the total market.Secondhand increasingly acts as a market gateway for younger generations,as well as for aspirational consumers who want

88、 to continue participating in the luxury ecosystem,despite brands continued price elevation and general macroeconomic challenges.Distribution trends 17Notes:Growth shown at current exchange rates;E indicates estimated valueSource:Bain&CompanyGlobal personal luxury goods market,by distribution channe

89、l and format,201923E(billions)OnlineDepartment storeTravel retailMonobrandSpecialtyOutlet5%to 0%8%to 12%9%to 13%5%to 10%9%to 13%20%to 30%CAGR202223E20023E12%13%6%31%20%18%2829029202Notes:Growth shown at current exchange rates;E indicates estimated valueSou

90、rce:Bain&CompanyGlobal personal luxury goods market,by channel(billions)2872070207326826524536642443763254386226240602852%48%36211%3%CAGR201023E14%1%CAGR201923E7%to 9%1%to 1%YOYgrowth202223E Owned retailWholesale62201023EFigure 13:Mon

91、obrand stores grew strongly,fueled by consumers quest for in-person experiences;travel retail was revitalized but still below 2019 levelsFigure 12:Owned retail gained further ground,surpassing wholesale18Note:E indicates estimated valueSource:Bain&CompanySecondhand vs.new luxury goods market(indexed

92、 to 100 in 2017)201918%82%2020202120222023E16%16%84%84%95SecondhandNewSoft luxury as percentage of secondhandHard luxury as percentage of secondhandFigure 14:The secondhand luxury market continued to expand,primarily propelled by hard luxury goods1919 All

93、personal luxury goods categories grew in 2023,albeit at lower growth rates than in the last two years.Apparel and jewelry were the fastest-growing categories,both with a growth rate of 5%to 6%over 2022.Accessories remained the largest personal luxury goods category,growing by 2%to 4%.Within accessor

94、ies,leather goods grew by 3%to 4%.After repeated overperformance in the last years,the categorys growth has slowed,with most growth coming from price increases and volumes decreasing for the first time in the decade.We observed heightened demand for“core”items as well as more exclusive investment pi

95、eces.Small leather goods won over aspirational and younger consumers.Shoes grew by 2%to 3%compared with 2022 to reach 28 billion.It was the slowest-growing category due to its heavy reliance on aspirational shoppers.Formal and special occasion shoes normalized after last years strong acceleration.Th

96、e sneaker category is maturing,aligning its growth rate with the broader category.There are signs of growing interest for performance-oriented products,from outdoor booties to technical sneakers.The apparel category grew by 5%to 6%in 2023,aided by wardrobe elevation.The elevated post-streetwear wave

97、 is consolidating,especially in menswear.Top spenders ensured strong growth in the ultra-high offering,with unfolding demand for excellence and timelessness.Fashion-led items were less popular than core products that are closer to brand heritage and DNA.Beauty reached 72 billion,up 4%to 5%on 2022.Ma

98、keup is enjoying positive momentum,with the“lipstick effect”continuing to attract aspirational clients.Ultra-luxury and celebrity fragrances are taking off,with artificial intelligence contributing to new and unique scents.Skincare is meeting temporary headwinds in Asia,linked to the declining popul

99、arity of Korean beauty routines in younger generations,as well as local policies constraining travel retail.Individual category performance 20 Watches are still thriving.Sales of new watches grew by 3%to 4%and reached a record 55 billion.Both high-end and entry items performed better,while mid-range

100、 items softened.Besides luxury industry giants,smaller direct-to-consumer brands with innovative value propositions are attracting collector communities.Generation Z continues to show strong interest in the category.Jewelry sales in 2023 are estimated to have risen to 29 billion,up 5%to 6%from 2022.

101、Consumers view fine jewelry as a bright spot for investment amid uncertainty.Demand for bespoke pieces is holding up,flanked by growing interest for“repetitive”high jewelry targeted at the ultra-rich.Fashion jewelry continues to accelerate,as do the genderless and male segments.21Notes:Growth shown

102、at current exchange rates;E indicates estimated valueSource:Bain&CompanyGlobal personal luxury goods market,by category(billions)Leather81Apparel75Beauty72Watches5529Shoes28YOY growth,202223EJewelry3%4%2%3%3%4%5%6%5%6%4%5%Notes:Growth shown at current exchange rates;hard luxury includes jewelry and

103、watches;E indicates estimated valueSource:Bain&CompanyGlobal personal luxury goods market,by category(billions)2010 63E228%4%7%5%8%4%9%5%2%4%5%6%3%5%4%5%CAGR201023ECAGR201923ECAGR202223EAccessoriesApparelHard luxuryBeauty2245 2442542622862219Figure 16:Jewe

104、lry,apparel,and beauty grew the fastestFigure 15:Accessories remained the largest category but grew more mildly than in the past2222 2023 has been an unsettling year for luxury.After two years of outstanding postCovid-19 rebound,defined by double-digit growth rates,the sector saw quarterly growth pr

105、ogressively decelerate back to low single-digit rates.While such growth normalization was predictable,not every luxury company was able to anticipate and successfully navigate this trend.As a result,only about two-thirds of luxury brands were able to post growth in 2023,compared with about 95%from 2

106、021 to 2022.In such an environment,profits came under slight pressure.We expect profit levels,which had recovered postCovid-19 to an average 21%in 2021 and 2022,to range between 19%and 22%this year at best.While the industry has continued to benefit from increased prices and a confirmed shift to hig

107、her-margin direct channels,profit levels also reflect luxury brands increased marketing spending,as well as higher labor costs and energy prices.But brands have nonetheless continued investing in modernizing their operations and infrastructure to support future growth.In particular,they are investin

108、g in more robust information technology and data infrastructure to support the ongoing digitalization of the industry,as well as renovation of their store networks.In periods of turbulence,winning brands generally exhibit an unwavering commitment to invest in their future:They distinguish themselves

109、 by superior investment in brand visibility(spending on average 20%more than non-winning brands on marketing),general infrastructure(investing 20%more in capital expenditure),and the reinforcement of their organization(growing their number of employees by 30%more).Looking ahead,we expect overall lux

110、ury spending to experience sound growth of 4%to 8%per annum,from an estimated 1.5 trillion today to 2.5 trillion by 2030.With regard to personal luxury goods,we forecast that the segment should grow moderately in 2024,ranging between 1%and 4%in our most realistic scenario,which anticipates touristic

111、 spending growth,the recovery of the US market,an acceleration in China and the Middle East,and the normalization of Japan.A more positive scenario,anchored in the same assumptions Outlook for the future23with the addition of higher levels of consumer confidence that propel local demand across regio

112、ns and accelerated recovery patterns in the US,would translate into 5%to 7%growth in 2024.Beyond that,we expect solid market fundamentals to result in annual growth rates between 5%and 7%until 2030.We anticipate that the market value of personal luxury goods will therefore rise to 540 billion to 580

113、 billion by the end of the present decade.This would be twice the value of that same market back in 2019(then estimated at 281 billion).Four vectors of transformation should profoundly reshape the luxury goods market by 2030:Chinese consumers should regain their preCovid-19 status as the dominant na

114、tionality for luxury goods,growing to represent 35%to 40%of global purchases.Mainland China should overtake the Americas and Europe to become the biggest luxury market globally(24%to 26%of global purchases).Younger generations(Generations Y,Z,and Alpha)will become the biggest buyers of luxury by far

115、,representing nearly 85%of global purchases.Monobrand stores and online should become the leading channels for luxury purchases,representing an estimated 60%to 66%market share.24Notes:E indicates estimated value;F indicates forecasted valueSource:Bain&Company Worldwide luxury spending,202230F(trilli

116、ons)4%8%22.51.51.420222023E2030FCAGR2023E30FNotes:EBIT is earnings before interest and taxes;E indicates estimated value;includes a representative set of luxury brands across product categories and regionsSource:Bain&CompanyEBIT margin of selected personal luxury goods brands18%16%23%19%21%12%21%21%

117、19%22%200708095123E22Figure 18:Globally,luxury spending is rooted in strong fundamentals and set for long-term growthFigure 17:Profit levels held steady,as marketing and labor investments offset increased prices25Notes:Segments may not total 100%due to rounding;E indicates esti

118、mated value;F indicates forecasted value Source:Bain&CompanyShare of global personal luxury goods market(billions)17%22%10%33%13%6%281 2123 2931 68 2224 131546362 1618 2224573540032%30%8%11%15%4%281 28 28816155362 232523256824260ChinaJapanRest of worldRest of Asia AmericasEurop

119、e20192023E2030F20192023E2030FChineseRest of worldOther AsianAmericanEuropeanJapaneseBy consumer nationalityBy regionNotes:E indicates estimated value;F indicates forecasted value Source:Bain&Company Global personal luxury goods market(billions)2205405802865390Best case:5%7%vs.23EBase case

120、:1%4%vs.23E200222023E2024F2030F5%7%2023E30F CAGR6%7%201930F CAGRFigure 20a:By 2030,Chinese consumers should become the top personal luxury goods customers again and China the biggest marketFigure 19:In 2024,personal luxury goods could grow modestly,but by 2030,solid fundamentals should le

121、ad to sound growth26Notes:Segments may not total 100%due to rounding;generations defined by birth year(Silent Generation 192845,baby boomers 194664,Generation X 196580,Generation Y 19811995,Generation Z 19962015,Generation Alpha 2016present);E indicates estimated value;F indicates forecasted valueSo

122、urce:Bain&CompanyShare of global personal luxury goods market(billions)OnlineMonobrandOther brick&mortar20192023E2030F20192023E2030FSilent GenerationBaby boomerGen XGen ZGen AlphaGen YBy generationBy channel57%31%12%281 44 36 203623437303330335405808%36%30%23%2822530 5020540580 5Figure 20

123、b:By 2030,Generation Y will remain the primary personal luxury goods buyers;online and monobrand stores will be the leading channels27AppendixAbout the Bain Luxury Goods Worldwide Market StudyBain&Company analyzes for Fondazione Altagamma the market and financial performance of more than 280 leading

124、 luxury goods companies and brands.This database,known as the Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Observatory,has become a leading and much-studied source in the international luxury goods industry.Bain has published its annual findings in the Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study since 2000.The studys lead

125、 author is Claudia DArpizio,a Bain partner in Milan.Fondazione Altagamma is led by Matteo Lunelli,who was named chairman in 2020.Bains insights are based on triangulating information and sources available as of November 10,2023,including:macroeconomic data(e.g.,GDP,consumer confidence index)and late

126、st forecasts;current trading performance from relevant luxury industry players;annual reports,quarterly results,and analyst reports;and consensus of 100-plus expert interviews.The scenarios do not consider disruptive changes to the current global sociopolitical situation.28Source:Bain&CompanyBottom-

127、up and top-down estimates Revenues at retail equivalent value Player1Player2Player3Player.Player282TotalBottom-up sum of retail sales value by brandTop-down cross-checks Category-specific data in the main geographical markets Comparison of market breakdown and turnover breakdown of key players Exper

128、t interviews(top management of brands,distributors,department stores)Consistency check and fine-tuningApplication of estimated markups by geography and categoryApplication of estimated royalty rates and markups by geography and product categoryRetailWholesale at retail valueLicenses at retail value=

129、Player sales at retail value+RetailWholesaleLicenses=Player consolidated sales+Revenues at retail sales value represent total sales valued at retail price(final price paid by consumers at point of purchase).Each players consolidated sales are brought back to retail sales value through the following

130、methodology:Figure 21:Methodology of the study29Key contacts in Bains Luxury Goods practiceEurope,Middle East,and AfricaClaudia DArpizio in Milan()Federica Levato in Milan()Stefano Fenili in Milan()Carlo Moltrasio in Milan()Xavier Bersillon in Paris()Mathilde Haemmerl in Paris()Marc-Andr Kamel in Pa

131、ris(marc-)Jolle de Montgolfier in Paris()Nathalie Remy in Paris()Miltiadis Athanassiou in Zurich()Sanjay Dhiri in London()Cyrille Fabre in Dubai()AmericasAaron Cheris in San Francisco()Monisha De La Rocha in New York()Lisa Koetter in Boston()Erika Serow in New York()Suzanne Tager in New York()Asia-PacificBruno Lannes in Shanghai()Weiwen Han in Hong Kong()Weiwei Xing in Hong Kong()For more information,visit