1、World Population Prospects 2019 Highlights ST/ESA/SER.A/423 Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division World Population Prospects 2019 Highlights United Nations New York, 2019 The Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat is a vital interface betw

2、een global policies in the economic, social and environmental spheres and national action. The Department works in three main interlinked areas: (i) it compiles, generates and analyses a wide range of economic, social and environmental data and information on which States Members of the United Natio

3、ns draw to review common problems and take stock of policy options; (ii) it facilitates the negotiations of Member States in many intergovernmental bodies on joint courses of action to address ongoing or emerging global challenges; and (iii)it advises interested Governments on the ways and means of

4、translating policy frameworks developed in United Nations conferences and summits into programmes at the country level and, through technical assistance, helps build national capacities. The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs provides the international community wit

5、h timely and accessible population data and analysis of population trends and development outcomes for all countries and areas of the world. To this end, the Division undertakes regular studies of population size and characteristics and of all three components of population change (fertility, mortal

6、ity and migration). Founded in 1946, the Population Division provides substantive support on population and development issues to the United Nations General Assembly, the Economic and Social Council and the Commission on Population and Development. It also leads or participates in various interagenc

7、y coordination mechanisms of the United Nations system. The work of the Division also contributes to strengthening the capacity of Member States to monitor population trends and to address current and emerging population issues. Notes The designations employed in this report and the material present

8、ed in it do not imply the expression of any opinions whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The term “country” as used in

9、 this report also refers, as appropriate, to territories or areas. This report is available in electronic format on the Divisions website at www.unpopulation.org. For further information about this report, please contact the Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nati

10、ons, Two United Nations Plaza, DC2-1950, New York, 10017, USA; phone: +1 212-963-3209; email:populationun.org. Suggested citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/423). Official symbols o

11、f United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined with numbers, as illustrated in the above citation. Front cover photo credit: Unsplash/Mauro Mora Back cover photo credit: UN Photo/Cia Pack Published by the United Nations Sales no.: E.19.XIII.4 ISBN: 978-92-1-148316-1 eISBN: 978-9

12、2-1-004235-2 Copyright 2019 by United Nations, made available under a Creative Commons license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) http:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Population Prospects 2019: Highlightsiii United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division What is World Po

13、pulation Prospects 2019? People, and thus populations, are at the centre of sustainable development. Each of the four global demographic “megatrends” population growth, population ageing, migration and urbanization holds important implications for economic and social development and for environmenta

14、l sustainability. Timely and accurate population estimates and projections allow Governments to anticipate future demographic trends and to incorporate that information into development policies and planning. The 2019 revision of the World Population Prospects is the twenty-sixth edition of the Unit

15、ed Nations population estimates and projections. It presents population estimates from 1950 to the present for 235 countries or areas, underpinned by analyses of historical demographic trends. This latest assessment considers the results of 1,690 national population censuses conducted between 1950 a

16、nd 2018, as well as information from vital registration systems and from 2,700 nationally representative sample surveys. The 2019 revision also presents population projections to the year 2100 that reflect a range of plausible outcomes at the global, regional and country levels. The population estim

17、ates and projections presented in the World Population Prospects describe two of the four demographic megatrends (population growth and ageing), as well as key trends in human fertility, mortality, and net international migration that are integral to sustainable development. Collectively, these data

18、 constitute a critical piece of the evidence base for monitoring global progress towards the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. World Population Prospects 2019: Confirms that the worlds population continues to grow, albeit at a slowing rate; Points to the challenges facing som

19、e countries and regions related to rapid population growth driven by high fertility; Notes that population size is decreasing in some countries due to sustained low fertility or emigration; Underscores the opportunities available to countries where a recent decline in fertility is creating demograph

20、ic conditions favourable for accelerated economic growth; Highlights the unprecedented ageing of the worlds population; Confirms the ongoing global increase in longevity and the narrowing gap between rich and poor countries, while also pointing to significant disparities in survival that persist acr

21、oss countries and regions; Describes how international migration has become an important determinant of population growth and change in some parts of the world. Contents What is World Population Prospects 2019? . iii Key findings from World Population Prospects 2019 . 1 Introduction . 3 Population s

22、ize, growth and age structure . 5 Demographic drivers of population change: fertility, mortality and international migration . 23 Population dynamics and the Sustainable Development Goals . 37 References . 39 World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights1 United Nations, Department of Economic and Soc

23、ial Affairs, Population Division While the global population is still growing, some countries are experiencing a decrease in their total population. Virtually all countries are experiencing population ageing. 1. The worlds population continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than at any time since

24、1950, owing to reduced levels of fertility. From an estimated 7.7 billion people worldwide in 2019, the medium-variant projection1 indicates that the global population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050, and 10.9 billion in 2100. 2. With a projected addition of over one bi

25、llion people, countries of sub-Saharan Africa could account for more than half of the growth of the worlds population between 2019 and 2050, and the regions population is projected to continue growing through the end of the century. By contrast, populations in Eastern and South- Eastern Asia, Centra

26、l and Southern Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Europe and Northern America are projected to reach peak population size and to begin to decline before the end of this century. 3. Two-thirds of the projected growth of the global population through 2050 will be driven by current age structur

27、es and would occur even if childbearing in high-fertility countries today were to fall immediately to around two births per woman over a lifetime. This is true because the large population of children and youth in such countries will reach reproductive age over the next few decades and begin to have

28、 children of their own. 4. Continued rapid population growth presents challenges for sustainable development. The 47 least developed countries are among the worlds fastest growing many are projected to double in population between 2019 and 2050 putting pressure on already strained resources 1. See p

29、age 5 for an assessment of the uncertainty associated with global population projections. and challenging policies that aim to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals and ensure that no one is left behind. For many countries or areas, including some Small Island Developing States, the challenges t

30、o achieving sustainable development are compounded by their vulnerability to climate change, climate variability and sea-level rise. 5. More than half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just nine countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egyp

31、t, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, the United Republic of Tanzania, and the United States of America. Disparate population growth rates among the worlds largest countries will re-order their ranking by size: for example, India is projected to surpass China as the worlds most populous

32、country around 2027. 6. The populations of 55 countries or areas are projected to decrease by one per cent or more between 2019 and 2050 because of sustained low levels of fertility, and, in some places, high rates of emigration. The largest relative reductions in population size over that period, w

33、ith losses of around 20 per cent or more, are expected in Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine, and the Wallis and Futuna Islands. 7. In most of sub-Saharan Africa, as well as in parts of Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, recent reductions in fertility mean that the population at working ages (

34、25 to 64 years) is growing faster than in other age groups, providing an opportunity for accelerated economic growth known as the “demographic dividend”. 8. In 2018, for the first time in history, persons aged 65 years or over worldwide outnumbered children under age five. Projections indicate that

35、by 2050 there will be more than twice as many persons above 65 as children under five. By 2050, the number of persons aged 65 years or over globally will also surpass the number of adolescents and youth aged 15 to 24 years. Key findings from World Population Prospects 2019 World Population Prospects

36、 2019: Highlights2 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division Trends in population size and age structure are shaped mostly by levels of fertility and mortality, which have declined almost universally around the globe. In some countries, international migration al

37、so has become an important determinant of population change. 9. Total fertility has fallen markedly over recent decades in many countries, such that today close to half of all people globally live in a country or area where lifetime fertility is below 2.1 live births per woman, which is roughly the

38、level required for populations with low mortality to have a growth rate of zero in the long run. In 2019, fertility remains above this level, on average, in sub-Saharan Africa (4.6 live births per woman), Oceania excluding Australia and New Zealand (3.4), Northern Africa and Western Asia (2.9), and

39、Central and Southern Asia (2.4). 10. Some countries, including several in sub- Saharan Africa and Latin America, continue to experience high levels of adolescent fertility, with potentially adverse health and social consequences for both the young women and their children. Between 2015 and 2020, an

40、estimated 62 million babies will be born to mothers aged 15-19 years worldwide. 11. Life expectancy at birth for the worlds population reached 72.6 years in 2019, an improvement of more than 8 years since 1990. Further improvements in survival are projected to result in an average length of life glo

41、bally of around 77.1 years in 2050. 12. While considerable progress has been made towards closing the longevity differential between countries, the gaps remain wide. Life expectancy in the least developed countries lags 7.4 years behind the global average, due largely to persistently high levels of

42、child and maternal mortality and, in some countries, to violence and conflicts or the continuing impact of the HIV epidemic. 13. In some parts of the world, international migration has become a major component of population change. Between 2010 and 2020, 36 countries or areas are experiencing a net

43、inflow of more than 200 thousand migrants; in 14 of those, the total net inflow is expected to exceed 1 million people over the decade. For several of the top receiving countries, including Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, large increases in the number of international migrants have been driven mostly by

44、 refugee movements, in particular from Syria. 14. It is estimated that ten countries are experiencing a net outflow of more than 1 million migrants between 2010 and 2020. For many of these, losses of population due to migration are dominated by temporary labour movements, such as for Bangladesh (net

45、 outflow of -4.2 million during 2010-2020), Nepal (-1.8 million) and the Philippines (-1.2 million). In others, including Syria (-7.5 million), Venezuela (-3.7 million), and Myanmar (-1.3 million), insecurity and conflict have driven the net outflow of migrants over the decade. Societies can adapt t

46、o demographic realities by anticipating future trends and incorporating that information into policies and planning. 15. Countries where fertility levels remain high should prepare to meet the needs of growing numbers of children and young people. Countries where a decline in fertility is creating a

47、n opportunity for a demographic dividend need to invest in human capital by ensuring access to health care and education at all ages and opportunities for productive employment. Countries with ageing populations should take steps to adapt public programmes to the growing proportion of older persons.

48、 All countries should take steps to facilitate safe, orderly and regular migration for the benefit of all. 16. The quality of population estimates and projections hinges on the collection of reliable and timely demographic data, including through civil registration systems, population censuses, population registers, where they exist, and ho